1
00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:05,840
Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

2
00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:08,920
Speaker 1: dot com, the Radio plus mobile LAP and on your radio.

3
00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:13,080
Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karin Moscow.

4
00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:15,640
Speaker 1: This updates brought to you by cbo E VIX Options

5
00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:18,960
Speaker 1: and Futures. Volatility can be harnessed with cbo E VIX

6
00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:22,600
Speaker 1: Options and futures. See disclosures and learn more at cbo

7
00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:26,520
Speaker 1: E dot com. Slash Powerful Outcomes vix u s Dot

8
00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:29,480
Speaker 1: Index futures are higher and indication stocks will trim their

9
00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:33,360
Speaker 1: first weekly drop in four, mirroring a global equity rally

10
00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:36,640
Speaker 1: as investors reassess stimulus measures in Europe. We check the

11
00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:39,800
Speaker 1: markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg

12
00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:43,560
Speaker 1: SNP EVENI futures of seventeen points, DOWI Mini futures of

13
00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:47,560
Speaker 1: a hundred thirty NASADAC EUNY futures up forty four Dacks

14
00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:50,839
Speaker 1: in Germany's up three point one percent, CAT in Paris

15
00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:52,680
Speaker 1: of three percent, and the f T one dred of

16
00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:55,760
Speaker 1: one point six percent. Ten Your treasury up one thirty

17
00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:58,680
Speaker 1: second yield one point nine two percent. Ni'm ex screwed

18
00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:01,160
Speaker 1: oil up one percent to our sixty nine cents to

19
00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:04,200
Speaker 1: thirty a fifty four a barrel. COM's gold is down

20
00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:06,800
Speaker 1: three tenths per center, four dollars thirty cents to twelve

21
00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,360
Speaker 1: sixty eight thirty announced the euro a dollar eleven twenty three,

22
00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:13,720
Speaker 1: the yen one thirteen point six one, and Deutsche Bank,

23
00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:16,520
Speaker 1: which runs Europe's biggest investment bank, saying it expects the

24
00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:20,360
Speaker 1: industry's revenue to decline this year as clients consider pulling

25
00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:23,759
Speaker 1: back from trading some fixed income securities and refrain from

26
00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:28,000
Speaker 1: doing deals. That's a Bloomberg Business flash, Tom and Mike Karen,

27
00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:30,880
Speaker 1: thanks so much. Friday Morning Futures up twenty earlier, now

28
00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:36,480
Speaker 1: seventeen as well. It is on Wall Street. The following

29
00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:40,640
Speaker 1: is from Bloomberg View. Opinions and commentary from Bloomberg columnists.

30
00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:44,080
Speaker 1: I'm Repneuru, a columnist for Bloomberg View. When a lot

31
00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:48,080
Speaker 1: of commentators see in Donald Trump's political ascent is reinforcement

32
00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:51,360
Speaker 1: for their own long held views, and they find that reinforcement,

33
00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,920
Speaker 1: regardless of the evidence, take the argument that Republicans created

34
00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:58,120
Speaker 1: the conditions for Trump's success by teaching their followers to

35
00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:01,800
Speaker 1: value obstruction and hate President Obama. It's a strange theory,

36
00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,640
Speaker 1: since Trump is the Republican candidate who has given Obama

37
00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,600
Speaker 1: the most praise and talks the most about making deals,

38
00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:11,320
Speaker 1: and he has lagged among voters who call themselves very conservative,

39
00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,400
Speaker 1: the people whom one would expect to be most anti Obama.

40
00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,959
Speaker 1: In truth, several streams feed Trump's river opposition to the

41
00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:22,480
Speaker 1: Republican establishment. Economic anxiety and concern about illegal immigration are

42
00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:26,200
Speaker 1: all playing a role, but so is admiration for successful businessman,

43
00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,799
Speaker 1: and oversimplified view of Trump's coalition can lead us to

44
00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,919
Speaker 1: mistake and conclusions. We may take an unfair and alarming

45
00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,359
Speaker 1: view of millions of our fellow citizens, and we may

46
00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:36,880
Speaker 1: wrongly assume that nothing can be done to persuade his

47
00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:40,720
Speaker 1: supporters to reconsider their votes. I'm entrepreneur. For more view,

48
00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,560
Speaker 1: please go to Bloomberg dot com or view go on

49
00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:48,040
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal. This has been Bloomberg View and Bloomerview.

50
00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:51,320
Speaker 1: Commentaries can be here in hourly weekdays on Bloomberg Radio.

51
00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:56,160
Speaker 1: Michael Well, we have perhaps seen the last of the

52
00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,800
Speaker 1: Republican debates for the time being, depending on how turnout

53
00:02:59,919 --> 00:03:04,400
Speaker 1: is UH and the vote goes next Tuesday. But before

54
00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:06,800
Speaker 1: they ended Brett Mayer spent quite a bit of time

55
00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,480
Speaker 1: on stage with the candidates as host of many of

56
00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:12,840
Speaker 1: the debates for Fox News and his Fox News Special Report,

57
00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:15,480
Speaker 1: one of the most watched news programs out there, and

58
00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:17,400
Speaker 1: you can listen, of course to Fox News Sunday twelve

59
00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:22,200
Speaker 1: pm and four pm every Sunday here on Bloomberg Radio. Brett.

60
00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:28,679
Speaker 1: We saw last night Donald Trump beginning to suggest that

61
00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,120
Speaker 1: he might try to move away from some of his

62
00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:36,240
Speaker 1: most extreme positions. UM in the in the in the

63
00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:40,040
Speaker 1: manner that candidates do once they feel they're the party's nominee.

64
00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:43,760
Speaker 1: But others have raised the question, and this came up

65
00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:47,480
Speaker 1: by noaht your debate, whether Donald Trump can or if

66
00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:51,200
Speaker 1: he changes his positions, he loses the support of all

67
00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,080
Speaker 1: the people who were so far out there in their

68
00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:57,200
Speaker 1: anger right tell him like a morning I think the

69
00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:00,560
Speaker 1: unique thing about Donald Trump is that he has used

70
00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:07,560
Speaker 1: flexibility on issues as a benefit. UH in a primary

71
00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:11,600
Speaker 1: where at least going in sticking to your guns, UH,

72
00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:15,560
Speaker 1: fighting for principle was the thing that a lot of

73
00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:18,040
Speaker 1: people thought was going to drive the day and hence

74
00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:22,479
Speaker 1: ted Cruz's nomination. UH could have been a possibility right now,

75
00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:25,599
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is in position, uh and really the only

76
00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,479
Speaker 1: one in position to get to the majority of delegates

77
00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:35,479
Speaker 1: without a contested convention. Well he is. Um. He's been

78
00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:39,760
Speaker 1: called the end of the Republican Party. Uh. You're very

79
00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:44,000
Speaker 1: close to people in the party. What what do you think, Well,

80
00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:47,760
Speaker 1: they're they're really um pulling their hair out. They don't

81
00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:51,320
Speaker 1: know exactly what to do. Um. There are some who

82
00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:54,839
Speaker 1: think when Donald Trump is the nominee and there will

83
00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:58,920
Speaker 1: be a massive loss to Hillary Clinton and the party

84
00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:02,760
Speaker 1: will restruct itself. There are others who think that he

85
00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:06,600
Speaker 1: is a candidate who is unique unto himself, and he

86
00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:10,760
Speaker 1: will compete in states that other Republicans would not and

87
00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:15,880
Speaker 1: think that he has a shot against Hillary Clinton. UM.

88
00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:19,400
Speaker 1: I think those are the optimistic of the budge within this.

89
00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:22,560
Speaker 1: In Vox yesterday, I'm searching for the bar chart right now,

90
00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:25,440
Speaker 1: Bret Verre. But Vox put out a terrific chart going

91
00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,600
Speaker 1: back a good thirty years of the summation of negative

92
00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:32,280
Speaker 1: and positive tone on each of the major candidates. And

93
00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:36,360
Speaker 1: it's really everybody else And there's nuances Romney Clinton back

94
00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:40,920
Speaker 1: to Bob Dole, etcetera. And then there's uniquely the negative

95
00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:46,719
Speaker 1: perception of Mr Trump. How does he shift that and win?

96
00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:50,039
Speaker 1: It's got to happen soon. I think last night was

97
00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:52,880
Speaker 1: part of it. Uh, Tom, I think you know this

98
00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:58,039
Speaker 1: kind of quiet uh, not jumping down people's throats, not

99
00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:02,400
Speaker 1: counterpunching right away. Um. A tone and tenor of that

100
00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:06,280
Speaker 1: debate was an example of him shifting. Um. But you're right,

101
00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:10,400
Speaker 1: his negatives are up at above folks, there are a

102
00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:14,400
Speaker 1: jump condition over everybody else we've grown up with. Now.

103
00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:16,880
Speaker 1: I will say that Hillary Clinton's negatives are are pretty

104
00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:21,159
Speaker 1: high to um. But much like Mitt Romney went into

105
00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:25,200
Speaker 1: that election, um with Romney Care unable to fight the

106
00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:29,599
Speaker 1: battle against Obamacare really effectively. There are some who are

107
00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,240
Speaker 1: concerned that because of honest and trustworthy numbers, Donald Trump

108
00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:36,040
Speaker 1: essentially is is neutered in the same way. And now

109
00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:39,039
Speaker 1: folks would go to Bloomberg Surveillance News breaking how Speaker

110
00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:42,080
Speaker 1: Paul Ryan and his council has sent his cease into

111
00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:45,960
Speaker 1: this letter to Brett Bear or the Draft Ryan group

112
00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:50,719
Speaker 1: because Brett Bear needs more ratings. Come on, are you

113
00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:54,719
Speaker 1: kidding me? Now? They're gonna get Speaker Ryan into this? Yeah, well,

114
00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:57,960
Speaker 1: I listen. They there are these groups that are imagining

115
00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:01,400
Speaker 1: this person on a white horse coming into the convention

116
00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,840
Speaker 1: in Cleveland and saving the day. Uh, it's just not

117
00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:07,320
Speaker 1: going to happen, Right, you can get the Florida vote

118
00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:13,920
Speaker 1: if you're running. You never know. I gotta I gotta

119
00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:17,200
Speaker 1: quickly ask you about the other side of the political coin.

120
00:07:17,280 --> 00:07:20,680
Speaker 1: On the Democratic side, Um, Bernie Sanders making a race

121
00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,080
Speaker 1: of it. But Hillary Clinton that you know, the delicate

122
00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:26,080
Speaker 1: math is is pretty overwhelming. Somebody asked me last night

123
00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:28,880
Speaker 1: after watching the Democratic debate and then watching the Republican

124
00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:32,520
Speaker 1: debate and watching Donald Trump debate. Um, he has no

125
00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,320
Speaker 1: policies and he basically just says, we need a good deal,

126
00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:40,480
Speaker 1: uh to everything. Uh how will Hillary Clinton do in

127
00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:43,880
Speaker 1: a debate against Donald Trump? He dominates the other people

128
00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:46,120
Speaker 1: who are on the stage on the Republican side. Will

129
00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:49,600
Speaker 1: it be different with her? Yeah, I mean that's really fascinating.

130
00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:52,280
Speaker 1: I mean she is a policy want and he's very

131
00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:57,320
Speaker 1: comfortable into the details. He is not comfortable there, but

132
00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:01,560
Speaker 1: he is comfortable. Uh. You know things at feet that

133
00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:04,120
Speaker 1: people say, Okay, let's give him a shot. I think

134
00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:07,360
Speaker 1: he's riding a wave of anger against Washington that says,

135
00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,840
Speaker 1: forget it, kicked the table over let's start. Somebody's gonna

136
00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:14,680
Speaker 1: shake it up. She is clearly establishment, so that that

137
00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:17,720
Speaker 1: will be quite a battle. Brett Baer, It's gonna be

138
00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:21,240
Speaker 1: a fascinating battle to follow with you here on Bloomberg Radio,

139
00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:23,240
Speaker 1: and you can listen to course to Fox News Sunday.

140
00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:28,480
Speaker 1: The left and the right simply say that he in

141
00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:31,840
Speaker 1: some slash all of his cohorts have done a great

142
00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:35,560
Speaker 1: job at Fox. Yeah, fullest closure special report, Um Scott

143
00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:39,680
Speaker 1: Brown is still with us From Raymond, James, uh and Scott.

144
00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:42,000
Speaker 1: This sort of leads into a question I wanted to

145
00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:45,040
Speaker 1: I'll put to you as the economic representative on the

146
00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:49,479
Speaker 1: program here now. Walster Journal has a very interesting survey

147
00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:55,880
Speaker 1: out today UH suggesting that three more than three quarters

148
00:08:55,920 --> 00:09:00,160
Speaker 1: of the forecasters in their latest survey they survey eight

149
00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:03,720
Speaker 1: economists around the country and all kinds of jobs, say

150
00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:08,000
Speaker 1: the presidential election has introduced more uncertainty than is typical,

151
00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:13,800
Speaker 1: and about two thirds of them say that if no.

152
00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:17,480
Speaker 1: Four fifths of the economists say that if you were

153
00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:20,280
Speaker 1: elected Mr Sanders or Mr Trump, they would have to

154
00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:24,000
Speaker 1: lower their economic forecasts, that that would be an economic

155
00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:28,040
Speaker 1: negative for the country. Yeah, it's hard to say for sure.

156
00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:31,200
Speaker 1: Particularly you know, if you look at Trump's proposals, because

157
00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:34,319
Speaker 1: there's really not a lot there there there are no details.

158
00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:38,240
Speaker 1: But you know when he talks about tearing up trade deals,

159
00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:41,200
Speaker 1: I mean that is a huge deal. I mean, these

160
00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:43,640
Speaker 1: things are designed so that you're not able to back

161
00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,240
Speaker 1: away from them. Tearing them up means that you're going

162
00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:49,520
Speaker 1: to set off this chain reaction, which is not going

163
00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:52,520
Speaker 1: to be good for the global economy. Um. Now what

164
00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:55,080
Speaker 1: push comes to the shob I think you know, if

165
00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:57,439
Speaker 1: Trump wins the nomination, you're going to get the established

166
00:09:57,679 --> 00:09:59,960
Speaker 1: mental Republicans coming in and trying to kiss and make

167
00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:02,720
Speaker 1: cup and he you know, the new president will have

168
00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,760
Speaker 1: to deal with Congress and the president you know, is

169
00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:09,280
Speaker 1: never gonna get everything that he wants in his administration.

170
00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:11,760
Speaker 1: I mean you look at the Obama administration and you know,

171
00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:15,520
Speaker 1: you've you've got the stalemate presumably with the Republican in

172
00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:19,040
Speaker 1: the White House, Republican in both chambers of Congress. Uh,

173
00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:22,839
Speaker 1: then some things can get done. You know, you look

174
00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:25,200
Speaker 1: at the Bush administration and we had you know, two

175
00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:28,680
Speaker 1: unfunded wars to you know, a prescription drug plan that

176
00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:32,120
Speaker 1: wasn't paid for. UM, So you need you know, you

177
00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:34,200
Speaker 1: need to be careful. I mean, the stalemate, you know

178
00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:37,280
Speaker 1: kind of work. And he remembered during the Clinton administration,

179
00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:39,839
Speaker 1: you know, the Republicans didn't get their big tax cuts,

180
00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:41,959
Speaker 1: the Democrats didn't get their big spending programs, and you

181
00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:43,960
Speaker 1: ended up with a budget surplus at the end of it.

182
00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:46,880
Speaker 1: But at this point, I think things have to come together,

183
00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:52,040
Speaker 1: but you're not really seeing much working together on capitalism. Scott,

184
00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:55,320
Speaker 1: thank you so much. Scott Brown, Raymond James uh with

185
00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:57,120
Speaker 1: us this morning. We'll have you on for a longer

186
00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:01,320
Speaker 1: period here in the near future. Very very interesting on

187
00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:04,880
Speaker 1: the ramifications on the U. S. Economy of where we are,

188
00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:09,319
Speaker 1: lower GDP growth and a bit, just a bit of inflation.

189
00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:12,280
Speaker 1: Another hour this Friday of Bloomberg Surveillance