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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Mollman of the Action Network. I am

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Speaker 1: live from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined

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Speaker 1: as always by my co host, my companion, Mike and

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Speaker 1: padre My BFF professional better Simon Hunter Ella.

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Speaker 2: Simon, Hello, Chad, how are we doing?

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Speaker 1: Getting closer?

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Speaker 3: Brother?

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Speaker 1: And as we speak, as we record, lines are moving

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Speaker 1: and not in the direction we thought they would last week.

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Speaker 1: As we speak, lines are moving in the direction of

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Speaker 1: the Eagles. Last week lines went from one and a

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Speaker 1: half to two. This week, lines are moving from one

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Speaker 1: and a half to one. You're seeing it a bunch

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Speaker 1: of Jersey books. It also happened at a big Vegas book.

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Speaker 1: Very interesting thing that lines are moving in the direction

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Speaker 1: right now of the Philadelphia Eagles. I'm glad I can

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Speaker 1: get the Chiefs at a cheaper price on the money

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Speaker 1: line or on the number fantastic. Today is our Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl Best Bets episode with our favorite director of research,

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Speaker 1: Evan Abrams is going to join us at the end

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Speaker 1: of the show, as he always does. We'll also bring

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Speaker 1: in Hot Reads specialist in Evan's partner on the Action

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Speaker 1: Network podcast Sunday Version, Brandon Anderson. We will of course

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Speaker 1: discuss our Foxhole, our Tommy John Big Balls, Simon's Biggest Bets.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna play some scoot Roulette, all that jazz bets

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Speaker 1: are rolling in. As I said, lines are moving, decisions

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Speaker 1: need to be made. As our volume podcast boss Colin

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Speaker 1: Cowhard likes to say, there's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets

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Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars sign up using promo code

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Speaker 1: Favorites deposit ten dollars a place to bet for five

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Speaker 1: dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.

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Speaker 1: Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,

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Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. Bet three

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Speaker 1: sixty five must be twenty one or older and present

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Speaker 1: in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply. Okay, it's Thursday, last Thursday

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Speaker 1: of the season in which we get to hear how

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Speaker 1: the wise guys are responding to our conversations. Lines move

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Speaker 1: based on what we say. The pros feel compelled to

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Speaker 1: weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there, I'm talking rain.

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Speaker 1: Rain telephone range. Somebody saying, man.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, sharp clalls is only one game.

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Speaker 4: It's it's pretty insane how much it's just so much opinion,

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Speaker 4: so many everyone's got the answers right, especially when you're

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Speaker 4: turning professional betters.

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Speaker 2: They already know the answers on the test.

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Speaker 4: But this week, honestly, we started out it was basically

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Speaker 4: everyone I knew was taking a position on the Chiefs

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Speaker 4: in the under, and a couple of the smarter betters

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Speaker 4: took the Eagles up plus two. And you know, we

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Speaker 4: talked on Tuesday show, I think even Sunday night, Like, Okay,

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Speaker 4: I get why they would take that early number, but

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Speaker 4: I expected most professionals to be on the chief side,

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Speaker 4: and it's.

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Speaker 2: Actually gone the other way. I'm seeing it more that.

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Speaker 4: The public is on the chief side and more professionals

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Speaker 4: are lined up taking the eagle side.

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Speaker 2: I think it is what we talked about, right.

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Speaker 4: It's most guys that do models are going to have

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Speaker 4: the Eagles as the better team across the board.

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Speaker 2: So it's not that shocking.

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Speaker 4: I mean, our review of it is we agree we

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Speaker 4: think the Egles are the better team across the world,

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Speaker 4: but the two most important positions, the coach and the quarterback,

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs do have an advantage there. So yeah, it's

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Speaker 4: it's been pretty wild. Like a lot of the pros,

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Speaker 4: I note.

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Speaker 2: Chad, they've been, you know, taking this eagle side, but it's.

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Speaker 4: Not like they're hammering it heavy, right, It's not like

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Speaker 4: that where they're really taking a standard, because I think

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Speaker 4: most people view it as there's not a ton of

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Speaker 4: value in the number itself. Right, if you like the Eagles,

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Speaker 4: A lot of guys weren't taking the plus one. They

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Speaker 4: were just taking the plus one ten. Now you've seen

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Speaker 4: that that number is gone, right, Most books now were

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Speaker 4: down to plus one oh five. Even flipping a couple

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Speaker 4: of books now are at minus one oh four for

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Speaker 4: the Eagles, So yeah, it's it's interesting to seeing that

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Speaker 4: number move, and obviously that's professional money moving that number.

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Speaker 4: That's not Joe Public moving. And same goes for that under.

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Speaker 4: Like I wanted to give out the under here on

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Speaker 4: the show today, he's still going to do it. We've

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Speaker 4: seen that forty nine and a half just disappear. Like

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Speaker 4: I've been looking all across every book, it's gone totally.

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Speaker 4: At the highest you can get now is forty nine,

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Speaker 4: which is still good value. But when we talked last week,

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Speaker 4: I thought it would go the other way. I was like,

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Speaker 4: hopefully it gets to fifty by the time we do

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Speaker 4: our next show. That's not the case, right, most people

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Speaker 4: that had respected money came in and took the or

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Speaker 4: so as you said, you're right now, it seems like

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Speaker 4: respected money Eagles and the under I think me and

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Speaker 4: you know the deal, right, disrespected money to save money

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Speaker 4: that two weeks ago came in heavy on the bills.

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Speaker 4: The Bills literally went from a minus or plus two

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Speaker 4: dog to a pick them by kickoff against the Chiefs.

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Speaker 4: That number steamed before kickoff, and that's respected professional money.

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Speaker 4: Looks like they're trying to fade Mahomes once again. Chad,

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Speaker 4: So pretty interesting. They're they're taking that stand where I

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Speaker 4: think mean of the same opinion. It's like it's easy money,

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Speaker 4: it's easy living, taking Mahomes and out stressing about it.

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Speaker 4: So I am shocked to see that so much respected

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Speaker 4: money is coming on this eagle side.

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Speaker 1: It just makes no sense to me. It's it's it's

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Speaker 1: just astonishing that someone in this day and age, giving

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Speaker 1: everything we know about Patrick Mahomes and how he performs,

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Speaker 1: everything we know about Andy Reid and how he performs,

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Speaker 1: everything we know about Steve Spagnolo and how he performs.

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Speaker 1: We have we have a very decent sized sample set

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Speaker 1: of data that indicates how these guys perform in high

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Speaker 1: pressure situations when the stakes are the highest, whether it's

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Speaker 1: end of the regular season, to clinch a playoff seed,

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Speaker 1: clinch a first round by, to clinch the number one

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Speaker 1: seed in the AFC, to clinch home field advantage, to

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Speaker 1: clinch a to a trip to the Super Bowl, to

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Speaker 1: clinch a trip to win the Super Bowl. Like Mahomes

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Speaker 1: doesn't lose, He just doesn't lose. Let me, before I

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Speaker 1: bring in Brandon Anderson, let me just read a couple

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Speaker 1: more stats that we talked about last week, but they

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Speaker 1: are worth repeating, if only because this line is moving

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Speaker 1: in his direction. January February, Mahomes have played eighteen games

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Speaker 1: at home r on a nutrient field, sixteen and two

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Speaker 1: straight up his losses Joe Burrow and Tom Brady. We

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Speaker 1: are right now being asked to bet Patrick Mahomes essentially

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Speaker 1: straight up to win this game if you throw. In

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Speaker 1: November and December, he's forty four and six straight up.

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Speaker 1: In just the playoffs. He's been an underdog, are a favorite,

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Speaker 1: under a field goal eight times eight no straight up

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Speaker 1: and against the spread. Mahomes has trailed in the fourth

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Speaker 1: quarter of ot, fourth quarter or overtime in nine total

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Speaker 1: playoff games. He's won six of those games, forced ot

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Speaker 1: in two of those games. Astonishing. Brandon Anderson talk to me,

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Speaker 1: no one, but.

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Speaker 5: No one is offering you action like this. It's the

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Speaker 5: gambling experience on lifetime, and it's my way of saying,

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Speaker 5: I understand men like you.

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Speaker 2: I know what you want, I know what you need.

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Speaker 2: This is where you belong.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean it's really hard to get away from it.

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Speaker 6: Just coming down to Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. Who

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Speaker 6: do you like to win the game?

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Speaker 1: When?

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Speaker 7: Who do you like to win the game?

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Speaker 6: If it's close late, either Pat has the ball and

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Speaker 6: I like the Chiefs, or Jalen has the ball and

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Speaker 6: I like the Chiefs. And that's the problem is if

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Speaker 6: it's close late, I'm gonna like the Chiefs. Either Jalen

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Speaker 6: Hurts away from home has not been good in the playoffs.

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Speaker 6: Andy Reid on arrest twenty nine and three straight up

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Speaker 6: with thirteen plus days of rest with either Patrin Holmes

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Speaker 6: or Donovan McNabb, Like all the trends line up this way,

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Speaker 6: like it's gonna be billed as Mahomes Versus Hurts, of course,

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Speaker 6: because it's the quarterbacks and it is Mahomes versus Hurts,

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Speaker 6: But we already know what Mahomes is gonna do to me.

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Speaker 6: It's not Mahomes versus Hurts. It's Spags versus Hurts. And

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Speaker 6: that's why I'm on the Chiefs as well, because I

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Speaker 6: just haven't trusted Jalen Hurts down the stretch for this team.

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Speaker 6: I haven't really felt like I trusted him even in

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Speaker 6: this playoff run, and I do trust with an extra

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Speaker 6: week to prep especially that Spags are gonna find some answers.

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Speaker 6: He's gonna dial up some blitzes. Jalen Hurts loves to roll, right,

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Speaker 6: that's gonna be something that I think Spags will be

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Speaker 6: ready for. I think he's gonna mix up the coverages Casey,

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Speaker 6: he plays a lot of man. Hurts is great against man,

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Speaker 6: but not good against zone. I think we're gonna see

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Speaker 6: a lot of kind of mixed hidden coverages. And I

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Speaker 6: just trust even as good as Philly's Dias been, as

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Speaker 6: Pangael has been, I trust any one off setting what

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Speaker 6: we've seen time and time, like this is the mahomes

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Speaker 6: read thing that we've seen, but it's Spags two and

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Speaker 6: it has been this whole way. I know that's something

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Speaker 6: you guys keep talking about as well. And I just

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Speaker 6: think he's kind of the MVP for this game to me,

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Speaker 6: because I don't trust Jalen Hurts against Spags up against

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Speaker 6: Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: Well, Simon, I got two big questions for you. One,

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Speaker 1: would you like to respond to Brandon's Jalen Hurts insults

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Speaker 1: not trusting Jalen Hurts. I know it's very sensitive topic.

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Speaker 1: I don't even like to I don't like to criticize

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Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts anymore because I know it makes everyone in

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia very upset.

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Speaker 4: Well, you just you would talk nonsense chat at least

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Speaker 4: Brandon here's coming with something to latch onto some sense

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Speaker 4: of reason. But I view it as it's a ben

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Speaker 4: don't break from Spags. Like the last time they played

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Speaker 4: in the Super Bowl, Hurts through for three j yards

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Speaker 4: had four touchdowns. So yes, does Spags run a great

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Speaker 4: de defense, of course, but he didn't break.

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Speaker 2: That was the key to that game.

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Speaker 4: Like they eventually in the second half made the right

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Speaker 4: adjustments and they won the game because of a punt

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Speaker 4: like they held against Hurtz Sirianty punted. That was the game,

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Speaker 4: Like that was all the Chiefs needed to get it

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Speaker 4: front of that last game the time they played. And

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Speaker 4: that's the type snare we have here where it's like,

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Speaker 4: you know, Spags, he won't mind giving up the yards.

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Speaker 4: It's all about in the red zone. If he can

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Speaker 4: stop the Eagles in the red zone, bottle them down,

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Speaker 4: they can win this game. That's how they will win

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Speaker 4: this because we already know the deal, Chad. Like, the

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Speaker 4: more I break down and look into this game, the

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Speaker 4: Eagles are so much better than the Chiefs across the

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Speaker 4: board in every position. Basically, it's like incredible, how well

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Speaker 4: built this team is, that, how he's done this year,

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Speaker 4: Like he basically nailed every little pick, every you know,

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Speaker 4: bringing in linebackers that end up being all pros like

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Speaker 4: that just doesn't happen in football. So when you really

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Speaker 4: break it down, like we said, I get where the

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Speaker 4: pros are coming from betting on this Eagles team, But

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Speaker 4: me and you have gone through this, Chad, We've lived

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Speaker 4: in the moment where the Chiefs are never the better team,

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Speaker 4: but they are the best at playing chess in football,

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Speaker 4: like them playing you and the clock and then the

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Speaker 4: fourth quarter. That's where Andy Reid and Mahomes shine. So

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Speaker 4: like we always talk about if it's if those three points,

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Speaker 4: if we were a getting plus three, me you would

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Speaker 4: have been happy to take the Eagles. But with Mahomes

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Speaker 4: and Andy Reid under that key number of three, if

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Speaker 4: Mahomes under that number, or he's a dog, you don't

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Speaker 4: overthink it, you don't over analyze it. You just take

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Speaker 4: the number that's great value. So it's the same thing here.

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Speaker 4: It's like, you know, the more I break it down,

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Speaker 4: I'm so glad we did that Tuesday show last week

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Speaker 4: because at this point it would be hard for me

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Speaker 4: not to be on the Eagles. But I keep in reminding

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Speaker 4: myself that's the sucker move, Like you're having too much time,

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Speaker 4: you're overthinking it. We get it. The egos of the

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Speaker 4: better team. They don't have Mahomes, and that's always the

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Speaker 4: difference for I joke with you come to the playoffs

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Speaker 4: and say, if you want to win a super Bowl,

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Speaker 4: you either need a ton of luck or Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 4: The Chiefs have both. They have a ton of luck

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Speaker 4: and they have Patrick Mahomes. So it's just my model

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Speaker 4: can't quantify it. It's just one of those things that's

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Speaker 4: the human intuition. Some that watches football and someone that

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Speaker 4: just knows how this sport is. And it's the Tom

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Speaker 4: Brady effect. It's like these guys, your model can't compute it.

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Speaker 4: It's just the human element of it. So yeah, that's

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Speaker 4: where I'm that with Mahomes. It's like I've been looking

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Speaker 4: for reason to take this egle team, and I keep

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Speaker 4: coming back to who do you trust in the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 4: It's going to be Mahomes.

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Speaker 2: Andy Reid, so yeah, don't overthink of people.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's what's so interesting to me is that the

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Speaker 1: Mahomes effect is why this line opened where it did.

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Speaker 1: Because if you go back Brandon like last year, at

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Speaker 1: this time, we're talking about the Niners and the Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: and the Chiefs are two point underdogs, and everybody has

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Speaker 1: the Niners power rated as the better roster by about

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Speaker 1: two points. This year, everyone has the Eagles power rated

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Speaker 1: as the better roster, and the Chiefs open at one

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Speaker 1: and a half and two. And now it's finally moving

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Speaker 1: in that direction. Some people are the bookmakers at least,

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Speaker 1: are trying to quantify that Mahomes effect, even if some

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Speaker 1: one else has taken the bait.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean I think I noted.

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Speaker 6: You know, we came on the podcast right after the

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Speaker 6: NFC Championship and AFC Championship, and it's even before we

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Speaker 6: got Chiefs or Bills playing out. We're gonna have the

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Speaker 6: same matchup, far superior roster or far superior quarterback that

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Speaker 6: was gonna be the decision in the Super Bowl, even

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Speaker 6: if it had been the Bills, it was gonna be

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Speaker 6: the same sort of setup. Was Okay, do you want

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Speaker 6: Josh Allen or do you want everything else on the

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Speaker 6: Eagles And you know, in this case you get Josh Allen,

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Speaker 6: plus you get the other things, plus you get Andy

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Speaker 6: Reid and you get spags and everything else. And yeah,

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Speaker 6: it's hard to quantify, especially when the line is right

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Speaker 6: around zero and it's like, okay, those half points and

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Speaker 6: points aren't quite as valuable right around there compared to

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Speaker 6: you if it was getting to year three or getting

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Speaker 6: to where it's key number of spots, and you know

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Speaker 6: it's more valuable now for moneyline play. So maybe that's

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Speaker 6: probably the pivot instead to get some value out of

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Speaker 6: the movement, and especially as someone that will be betting

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Speaker 6: the Chiefs waiting for some of this money to push

285
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Speaker 6: toward Philadelphia and get a little bit better price nextra

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Speaker 6: five to ten cents on the Chiefs. Thank you, I

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Speaker 6: appreciate it. I appreciate any line movement in this direction.

288
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Speaker 6: But yeah, to me, I think one thing that we

289
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Speaker 6: need to factor in despite that, the Eagles' roster strength

290
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Speaker 6: is very clear, the line, the weapons, the defensive talent.

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Speaker 7: I think one key for me.

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Speaker 6: Philadelphia's had such a soft strength of schedule this season,

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Speaker 6: and you can only beat the teams that are in

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Speaker 6: front of you. But do you guys know they've only

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Speaker 6: played all season, including the playoffs, still four games against

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Speaker 6: a top twelve DVA offense this or DVA defense this

297
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Speaker 6: entire season, and so we don't really trust what will

298
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Speaker 6: the offense do. For the Eagles in particular, they've I

299
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Speaker 6: think only trailed something like four minutes in the fourth

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Speaker 6: quarter in the last thirteen games.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's great.

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Speaker 6: That means that you're a really good team in winning

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Speaker 6: a lot, but you might trail against the Chiefs, And

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Speaker 6: now what's going to happen? What's gonna happen? Jalen hurts

305
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Speaker 6: when you actually have to go do the thing and

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Speaker 6: go win the game in the big moment. Now, look,

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Speaker 6: he did the thing two years ago, and we kind

308
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Speaker 6: of get to the spot where Eagles two years ago,

309
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Speaker 6: forty nine Ers last year, and now Eagles this time.

310
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Speaker 6: Is like, Okay, you hear a lot of people that

311
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Speaker 6: are just just take the Chiefs, just take Mahomes. And

312
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Speaker 6: if you're on the other side, and I have to

313
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Speaker 6: admit I've been on the other side both the last

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Speaker 6: two Super Bowls, you find yourself getting creative. You don't

315
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Speaker 6: want to just take the Eagles. You're like, well, Eagles,

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Speaker 6: but first half or we were talking before he came on,

317
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Speaker 6: what if I get bet Eagles first fifty eight minutes?

318
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Speaker 6: Like we're all terrified of Mahomes. And I think it

319
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Speaker 6: should be telling to us as betters that one side

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Speaker 6: feels confident just taking the team and the points and

321
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Speaker 6: the number whatever it is, and the other side is like, well,

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Speaker 6: like I did last time Philadelphia halftime in a full

323
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Speaker 6: time and I was like, Okay, my numbers say I

324
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Speaker 6: like the Eagles, even though I want to bet on

325
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Speaker 6: pat And if I do like the Eagles, I'm probably

326
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Speaker 6: gonna like them if they're leading at behalf, because they've

327
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Speaker 6: been such a good second half team like they have

328
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Speaker 6: been this year, and so I kind of talk myself

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Speaker 6: about the way they're they are up ten at the half.

330
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Speaker 6: They still didn't win anyways because Mahomes, because they found

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Speaker 6: a way late. So I think it's telling that you

332
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Speaker 6: see a lot of smart betters betting on the Eagles,

333
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Speaker 6: but betting creatively to still get away from the money

334
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Speaker 6: line and the points because we're so afraid of what

335
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Speaker 6: the Chiefs and Mahomes have done late. There is just

336
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Speaker 6: something unquantifiable about eleven to zero one score games, about

337
00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:40,560
Speaker 6: making those plays and about having frankly maybe the best

338
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Speaker 6: to ever do it down the stretch being able to

339
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Speaker 6: come up with something.

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Speaker 1: Well, Simon, you're a professional Better who seems to be

341
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Speaker 1: going against your brethren in quantifying it or not exactly

342
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Speaker 1: quantifying it, but taking it into account when you're making

343
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Speaker 1: your bet. Whereas the money is moving from professional Better

344
00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:04,119
Speaker 1: is in the direction of the Eagles, who while of

345
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Speaker 1: the Eagles power rated higher, why are professional Better is

346
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Speaker 1: being so stubborn and not recognizing the brilliance and clutchness

347
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Speaker 1: of Patrick Mahomes.

348
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Speaker 2: They're also playing the odds too.

349
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Speaker 4: I don't want to make it sound like these guys

350
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Speaker 4: are idiots, like they're just playing the mathematical number.

351
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Speaker 2: Like you just read those stats, Chad.

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Speaker 4: It's not going to keep going that way forever, right,

353
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Speaker 4: we know we know that things, especially in our line

354
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Speaker 4: of work, they always break the other way.

355
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Speaker 2: My view of is okay, But what if he's the exception?

356
00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:34,639
Speaker 2: Like that's my whole issue with it.

357
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Speaker 4: Where they where they keep bringing up the historical data

358
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Speaker 4: and everything like that, that's like, do we have an historical

359
00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:41,640
Speaker 4: data to back up Mahomes here like nothing he does

360
00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:44,040
Speaker 4: makes any sense. We've already talked about this at nauseum,

361
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Speaker 4: but like you know, he is someone that just raises

362
00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,840
Speaker 4: to the level and things always just break his way.

363
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Speaker 4: I joked about with you in life chat if I

364
00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:56,359
Speaker 4: had a superpower, my super power would be luck. I

365
00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:58,240
Speaker 4: my whole life have always been lucky. I'm one of

366
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Speaker 4: those people, and I think my home is the exact

367
00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,679
Speaker 4: same way. Like to me, they were gonna lose that

368
00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:05,720
Speaker 4: Bills game. He needed his defense to step up and

369
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,359
Speaker 4: make a stop. That wasn't the Mahomes were used to, right,

370
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Speaker 4: it's usually him controlling his own destinaily not there like

371
00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:13,840
Speaker 4: they the Bills. If they got a couple of first

372
00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,640
Speaker 4: downs gone down the field got their touchdown, that game

373
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Speaker 4: was gonna be over. But it played in Mahomes right.

374
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Speaker 4: The defense did step up when they need too, They

375
00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,520
Speaker 4: did get the stops, and the first time all season

376
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Speaker 4: he was able to score over thirty points. Like, it's

377
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Speaker 4: just the way it is. None of it makes sense.

378
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Speaker 4: So I do think it's interesting the fact that they

379
00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:35,000
Speaker 4: are stubborn where me and you we learned our lesson

380
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Speaker 4: with that Ravens game last year.

381
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Speaker 2: Like that was really enlightening to me.

382
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Speaker 4: Of just it doesn't matter if it's a horrible matchup

383
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Speaker 4: for Mahomes and he's going against one of the best

384
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Speaker 4: teams I've ever seen.

385
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Speaker 2: That Ravens team was last year, it didn't matter.

386
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Speaker 4: You overcame it with a horrible team and they end

387
00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:52,159
Speaker 4: up win a super Bowl. The same thing can be

388
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:54,320
Speaker 4: said for him this year. It's like, we know, they're

389
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:56,000
Speaker 4: not that great of a team when we talked, like

390
00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:59,439
Speaker 4: they have an awful offensive line, they somehow went fifteen

391
00:18:59,480 --> 00:18:59,800
Speaker 4: to one.

392
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Speaker 2: Like he just overcomes all these things.

393
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Speaker 4: So I'm right there with you, like, you know, my

394
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,920
Speaker 4: view of this Eagles team is, you know, yeah, sure,

395
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,880
Speaker 4: they've had a pretty easy path. I mean both super

396
00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:13,879
Speaker 4: Bowls they've made it to in the last three years,

397
00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:16,120
Speaker 4: they only need to beat a rookie quarterback in their

398
00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:18,920
Speaker 4: conference championship to make it. Mahomes had to beat Josh

399
00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,360
Speaker 4: Allen and Lamar. It's like, we are not the same.

400
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:24,200
Speaker 4: Those are a totally different world. So I totally get

401
00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:26,600
Speaker 4: that viewpoint. But I do think it's interesting that, you know,

402
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:29,159
Speaker 4: coming to the season, any when you talk to had

403
00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:32,520
Speaker 4: a higher grade in review on Jordan Love or Stafford

404
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,159
Speaker 4: and he basically Eagles basically beat those two teams by

405
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,560
Speaker 4: double digits, and we all heard the noise coming to this,

406
00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,120
Speaker 4: right Jane Daniels. People are viewing him as the best

407
00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:42,440
Speaker 4: quarterback in the NFC right now, and he got absolutely

408
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:44,160
Speaker 4: rolled in that game against the Eagles.

409
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Speaker 2: He put up twenty three points.

410
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:48,040
Speaker 4: So this is the defense that have stepped up every

411
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Speaker 4: quarterback they've faced. They're now going against the best quarterback

412
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Speaker 4: we've ever seen, arguably, So.

413
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Speaker 2: Can they do it one more time?

414
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 4: We know all the day and the Fangs defense, right,

415
00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:59,879
Speaker 4: he actually matches up pretty well with Mahomes just because you'

416
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:04,280
Speaker 4: Russia's for But in those games, we never saw Fanks

417
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:06,359
Speaker 4: have a good quarterback on the other side, So we

418
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:08,719
Speaker 4: know he's over eight. But those we talked about, those

419
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,320
Speaker 4: numbers are a little skewed. Evan helped us break that

420
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:14,000
Speaker 4: down that it's not as overwhelming terrible as you think

421
00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:17,200
Speaker 4: it would be. So I know why pros are betting

422
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:19,600
Speaker 4: this Eagles team chat. But like we joked, we've learned

423
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,359
Speaker 4: our lesson. As long as we're getting Mahomes with Andy

424
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:25,280
Speaker 4: Reid as under a three points, me and you are

425
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:27,359
Speaker 4: not gonna overthink it anymore. And I'm so happy because

426
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:28,879
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna let you. I was worried you were

427
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:30,920
Speaker 4: going to try to zag on this one, but no,

428
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,160
Speaker 4: we we both came to the dark side.

429
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:34,199
Speaker 2: We're both on the Chiefs.

430
00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:38,119
Speaker 1: No. But what's interesting is you mentioned the regression. And

431
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Speaker 1: I was actually talking about this with someone yesterday, which

432
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:48,439
Speaker 1: was we're so dug in on the Chiefs. Are we

433
00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:54,439
Speaker 1: not accounting for the possibility of regression? Brandon? At what

434
00:20:54,640 --> 00:21:01,120
Speaker 1: point do the numbers become so big that regression isn't

435
00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 1: the norm, regression is the anomaly? And have we hit that?

436
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:06,600
Speaker 2: Yeah?

437
00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 6: I mean I think we have to account that that.

438
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 6: You know, there is always the exception proves the rule,

439
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:15,360
Speaker 6: and it certainly seems like Mahomes read the whole Chiefs thing,

440
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 6: have become the exception that proves the rule. And I

441
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 6: think too, even betting against regression, you bet against regression,

442
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,640
Speaker 6: you know, on a futureist ticket for the whole playoffs,

443
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 6: or you bet against regression on an entire regular season ticket.

444
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,639
Speaker 6: You don't necessarily bet against it in one game because

445
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:34,160
Speaker 6: now you're trying to catch the falling knife. And how

446
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 6: do we know if progression came this game, maybe it does.

447
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 6: Maybe the Chiefs go you know, zero for five on

448
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,720
Speaker 6: fourth down in this game or something, or maybe the

449
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,119
Speaker 6: Eagles go five for five in the red zone and

450
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,080
Speaker 6: four for four and fourth down like you know, fumble luck,

451
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,120
Speaker 6: all those things. That's why we watch the sport, That's

452
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 6: why it's a fun sport to watch and bet on,

453
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 6: because the ball is oblong and weird stuff's going to happen.

454
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 6: But at some point you create your own luck. And

455
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 6: it sure seems like somehow the Chiefs keep creating their

456
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 6: own luck, like they're up with the luck rankings every time,

457
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,879
Speaker 6: of course, but all right, at some point are they

458
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 6: breaking that formula too? Like is it just always going

459
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 6: to come up? Patrick ma Holmes. That feels like is

460
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 6: starting to look that way. And I think too, as

461
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 6: we look at, you know, the metrics and the power ratings,

462
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 6: I think we have to have learned by now also

463
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 6: that that formula just doesn't work for the Chiefs and

464
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:29,120
Speaker 6: the playoffs. It is just not representative of what they are.

465
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 6: They're saving plays for the playoffs. They're in fact probably

466
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 6: purposefully burning bad plays or plays that might be bad

467
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,639
Speaker 6: to get them on tape in the regular season. To

468
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 6: set them up for the playoffs, spags of saving his

469
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 6: best stuff.

470
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:44,120
Speaker 7: Like we talked about that Josh.

471
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 6: Allen play, the big one where they got three guys

472
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,479
Speaker 6: coming off the edge and everyone was upset about, well,

473
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,919
Speaker 6: should he have thrown it to Shakira underneath? You know

474
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,119
Speaker 6: he hits Kincaid in the hands. Should he have Kadawa?

475
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 6: All the bills guys said, we didn't know that that

476
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 6: blitz was coming. Like, they set up that one all

477
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,400
Speaker 6: game long, all season long. This was a different thing.

478
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,399
Speaker 6: They waited all year for one play when they needed

479
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 6: it because they're the Chiefs and they can because they

480
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 6: know they're gonna be here again, and they're they're playing

481
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 6: a totally different game than everyone else. They're not fighting

482
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:19,199
Speaker 6: to get down to the end. They're gonna be at

483
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 6: the end anyways. So the whole thing is a chess

484
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 6: game toward the end. So their defensive metrics in October November,

485
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,680
Speaker 6: who cares doesn't matter, doesn't factor into how we have

486
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 6: to think about them right now. Patrick Mahomes tenth best

487
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,680
Speaker 6: EPA or whatever it was for this season doesn't matter.

488
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 7: Now.

489
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 6: It's Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs and in the super

490
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 6: Bowl and that's the version we have to get. And

491
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 6: so somehow that too is like unquantifiable in a power

492
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 6: rating system and a setup of what the Chiefs are

493
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 6: is that they're playing a different game than everyone else,

494
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 6: and the metrics that we all use to measure things

495
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:57,080
Speaker 6: and try to capture stuff like this just don't quite

496
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 6: work in a playoff setting when they have different rules.

497
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 6: And it's kind of like the Patriots too, that they

498
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,639
Speaker 6: have their own rules, they did their own thing, and

499
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:05,920
Speaker 6: that somehow found a way to work.

500
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 1: It's also harder for regression to come when three different factors,

501
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 1: meaning Andy Reid, Steve Spagnolo, and Patrick Mahomes, need to

502
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 1: underperform on the same exact play at the same exact

503
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:25,120
Speaker 1: time and the same exact circumstances. That's just not likely

504
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:29,159
Speaker 1: to happen. And those are the three factors that create

505
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 1: this alchemy that is, as we've said, unquantifiable.

506
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 4: That's been my argument thought what you just said, I said,

507
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:39,360
Speaker 4: I believe that you're right, regression is coming once those

508
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 4: pieces are gone. Okay, like Momes, this will come back around.

509
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 4: That has to be once Amy or Spag someone something

510
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 4: has to change dramatically for this team to have regression

511
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 4: in that type of ways. That's been my pushback against it.

512
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 4: Same thing last week, like guys were handing the bills

513
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 4: because they love that Bill's number that side. I kept

514
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 4: pushing them back against it, saying, you're overthinking this, like

515
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 4: that regression. You can't qualify for these one or two games.

516
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 4: They're just it doesn't work that way, especially with Mahomes

517
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 4: and you know so far we've seen it. It's it's

518
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 4: hold true he's eight to ozher when it's under three

519
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 4: points in the playoffs. It's just you can't wrap your

520
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:13,360
Speaker 4: head around. All you gotta do is not overthinking.

521
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:13,959
Speaker 2: Just bet it.

522
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 1: Randon. We have a note here about betting on Super

523
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 1: Bowl defense. Explain yourself.

524
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 6: Yeah, I always want to bet on defense to make

525
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 6: big plays in Super Bowl. For whatever reason, defenses just

526
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 6: score touchdowns at this way outlier rate.

527
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 7: In the Super Bowl.

528
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 6: Last Super Bowl matchup, Nick Bolton returns the fumble. Jalenhurs

529
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,360
Speaker 6: just dropped the ball. Basically, Nick Bolton returns for a touchdown.

530
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 6: And don't forget later in the game we thought he

531
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 6: returned a second fumble for a touchdown. That's a return

532
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,440
Speaker 6: in that game. Otherwise he's MVP in that game. There

533
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 6: are in fifty eight Super Bowls one two defensive touchdowns.

534
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 6: There's been at least one in nineteen out of fifty eight,

535
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 6: so that's almost one in every three Super Bowls that

536
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:57,160
Speaker 6: we're getting a touchdown. Is it random, Locke, It might

537
00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 6: be fifty, it's not a big sample size. But to me,

538
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,239
Speaker 6: defenses that are over prepped and scouted so that they

539
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:05,639
Speaker 6: kind of know when to jump the pass lane and

540
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 6: know to go for something, and it's teams emptying the tank.

541
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:11,880
Speaker 6: You may as well throw that pick six because you're

542
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 6: just gonna lose Super Bowl anyways unless you give it

543
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 6: a shot. So to me, you want to bet on

544
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,639
Speaker 6: defense touchdowns somehow in the Super Bowl because this is

545
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:22,679
Speaker 6: just a go to every year. Now this year, I

546
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 6: think it's a little less likely. These teams are both

547
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 6: very careful with the ball. They're not turning over a lot.

548
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:29,400
Speaker 6: But that's of course, Drew of all Super Bowl teams.

549
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 6: That's how you get to the Super Bowl, and somehow

550
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 6: this thing keeps happening. So depending on the book you play,

551
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 6: pay attention how you're betting it. There's defense touchdown, there's

552
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,880
Speaker 6: defense special teams touchdown, special teams a little more meated

553
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,880
Speaker 6: this year. I don't need to pay to include special teams.

554
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:48,160
Speaker 6: Usually these are interceptions. Eleven out of thirteen defense touchdowns

555
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:51,640
Speaker 6: since two thousand, event interceptions, not fumble recoveries. In this game,

556
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:53,199
Speaker 6: maybe a little bit less so because we're gonna get

557
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:55,680
Speaker 6: a lot of running of course from Philadelphia. And the

558
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:59,640
Speaker 6: key thing for me those twenty two defense touchdowns all

559
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 6: but three came by the winning team. So what I

560
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 6: want to do is I'm going to get aggressive. I

561
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 6: always love to give up some outs, get aggressive and

562
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 6: get the better number. The Chiefs defense to score touchdown

563
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 6: in a Chiefs win is plus nine to fifty. Or

564
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,240
Speaker 6: you can do Eagles same thing. Eagles defense touchdown and

565
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 6: Eagles win plus one thousand. Samon, you talked about like

566
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 6: what's the edge, what's the way the Eagles find a

567
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 6: way to win? Well, very often in a game like this,

568
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 6: the way is the ball bounced, weird, we picked up

569
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,199
Speaker 6: a fumble, we ran it in Ah Look seven points

570
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 6: free for us. Turns out that's a pretty good way

571
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 6: to flip a coin. Flip outcome. You can bet both

572
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 6: of those Chiefs defense touchdown in their win, Eagles defense

573
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,640
Speaker 6: touchdown and their win together is basically like an implied

574
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:47,199
Speaker 6: plus four thirty seven. That's nineteen percent likely that outcome

575
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 6: has happened a defensive touchdown by the winner twenty eight

576
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 6: percent of the time. So that's a pretty huge edge

577
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 6: in your favor. And I think two defensive MVP is

578
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 6: in play. We've had that almost one in six Super Bowls,

579
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 6: fifteen point five percent of the time. You can just

580
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 6: bet any defender MVP how many books fifteen to one

581
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 6: or I think you want to sprinkle.

582
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:08,400
Speaker 7: Some long shots.

583
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 6: Nick Bolton, guy that could have won it last time,

584
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 6: is four hundred to one at one book. Nolan Smith,

585
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:16,439
Speaker 6: the guy that I know we've talked about as a

586
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,879
Speaker 6: sack master against those bad tackles, three hundred to one.

587
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,879
Speaker 6: Linebackers are three the last four this century that have

588
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 6: been a defensive MVP. I just have to have some

589
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 6: piece of defense. I'm going to bet every single Super

590
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 6: Bowl because it hits more often than it doesn't and

591
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:33,679
Speaker 6: the numbers don't reflect it.

592
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:35,200
Speaker 1: What do you think of that, Simon?

593
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 2: I love it.

594
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 4: I mean honestly, it's this the type of game where

595
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,719
Speaker 4: that obviously could change the whole game. And I like,

596
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 4: if your team's gonna win. They get defensive touchdown. We

597
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 4: saw the last time they played. That's how the Chiefs

598
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 4: basically won their game.

599
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 2: Right. The Eagles played a.

600
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 4: Perfect first half, but did that because it was twenty

601
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 4: one to ten, that's seven points mattered in the end,

602
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 4: Like you know, Malmes woke up the second half and

603
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 4: that was all she wrote. So yeah, that's that's an

604
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 4: interesting plan. I was trying to think, who the hell

605
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 4: was the last special teams with the Devin Hester? Was

606
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 4: that the last special teams touchdown against the Colts?

607
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 1: That seems like that's eighteen years ago.

608
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 2: I know it was, like, is it Percy Harvin? I

609
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 2: was trying to think, who the hell?

610
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 4: And the Super Bowl didn't It's like Brandon brings up

611
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 4: a great point here, that's like a dumb bet to

612
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 4: make special teams with the defense. You might as well

613
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 4: get rid of that, just go strictly defense, just because

614
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 4: unless you're a Hall of Famer, apparently you're not going

615
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 4: to score a random mass touchdown in the Super Bowl.

616
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 4: I mean, even Kadarius Tony got close against the Eagles,

617
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 4: but he didn't score.

618
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 1: I don't think, I do think, I do feel like

619
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 1: Percy Harvin scored a touchdown, but I can't remember who

620
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 1: it was, four ab Seahawks.

621
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 2: I guess right, Oh right, yeah, you're right. I can't

622
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 2: remember either. I think he did that, but we're just

623
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 2: making a point. That's how insanely rare it is to

624
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 2: score of special teams.

625
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 1: Brandon, we've talked a lot about Xavier Worthy. This week.

626
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 1: I personally parlayed Xavier Worthy under five and a half

627
00:29:56,080 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 1: receptions and Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown thanks to doctor Nick Giffen.

628
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 1: That was four to one. So why are you laughing

629
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 1: at that?

630
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 2: Just because I just love You're bringing this up every show.

631
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 2: You're just a wild man every show, absolute wild man,

632
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 2: every show.

633
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 4: Props I haven't even given out yet, you're still bringing

634
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 4: up props. You've talked every show.

635
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 1: So I know Brandon has a has some thoughts on

636
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 1: Xavier Worthy.

637
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think Xavier Worthy is in this particular match,

638
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 6: but I think he could be the key to the

639
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 6: Chiefs offensive attack. So the whole point of Fangio defense,

640
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 6: take away the deep, take away the middle. This particular

641
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 6: defense takes away tight ends and running backs really well.

642
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 6: Running back screens obviously, is the Andy Ree specialty. That's

643
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 6: a lot of stuff they're taken away. But that really

644
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 6: sets up to exactly how the Chiefs play, much to

645
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 6: our chagrin. We want to see Patrick Mahomes do the

646
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 6: stuff he used to do, but he'd stop doing the

647
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 6: stuff used to do because half the defense start doing

648
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 6: fangio defense and all the quarterbacks had to start doing

649
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 6: the short stuff and eating that way. So Eagles play

650
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 6: zone about two thirds of the snaps. They play a

651
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 6: lot of Cover four and Cover six more covers any

652
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 6: human in the NFL. The way you beat that scheme

653
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 6: is in the flats, you beat Cover three. Another thing

654
00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 6: that he goes play a lot of with horizontal stretches. Okay, well,

655
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 6: who am I throwing to in the flat or getting

656
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 6: my speed guy in a horizontal stretch? That's zeb You're

657
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 6: Worthy all game long. Sixty two of his seventy catches

658
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 6: this season have been either short or behind the line

659
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 6: of scrimmage PFF grade ninety or better. On those average

660
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 6: seven and a half yards after completion. That is the

661
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 6: whole thing with Zavier Worthy. Now, the Chiefs took a

662
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 6: while to realize that they thought he was Tyreek Hill

663
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 6: for the first twelve weeks of this season, and he

664
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 6: had a twelve yards a dot. Then after that six

665
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 6: yard a dot, they totally changed how they've been using

666
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:42,479
Speaker 6: him week thirteen forward, and I've been betting his overs

667
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 6: throughout the playoffs. On receptions in the flats alone, his

668
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 6: ePaper play is ninety ninth percentile.

669
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 7: Like, this is the best.

670
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 6: Weapon right now, maybe in the league or close to it,

671
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 6: getting it out on quick pass to The Chiefs are

672
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 6: the number one team on quick passes, where Xavier Worthy

673
00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 6: is getting about a third of those for the season

674
00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 6: last four games alone, sixteen and a half EPA added

675
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 6: on quick passes. So I never would have guessed this

676
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 6: guy who I'm about to mention would show up on

677
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 6: a Super Bowl show. Wondale Robinson for the Giants, to me,

678
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 6: is a key name to look at you're comparing to

679
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 6: Xavier Worthy, just a similar but clearly worse style player.

680
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:22,000
Speaker 6: In both Giants games this season, he had six catches

681
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 6: and ten catches. Now, they didn't go very well because

682
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 6: it's Wondale Robinson, but he had more catches and more

683
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:30,560
Speaker 6: targets than Malik Nabors both those games, because that's how

684
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 6: you attack this defense. So I love Zavier Worthy in

685
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 6: this game. Last five games, he's averaging six point four

686
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 6: catches a game. He's averaging forty six yards after the catch,

687
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 6: So I don't necessarily want to go yards here, but

688
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 6: I think big plays a chance to get into the

689
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 6: end zone get that touchdown. I love the anytime touchdown

690
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 6: bet for the last five we know he's going to

691
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 6: run the ball a time or two. A lot of

692
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 6: people I know are betting the over five and a

693
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 6: half rush yards. He's had akiri and at least in

694
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 6: fourteen game of the season, he's had five or more

695
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 6: yards rushing in eleven of those fourteen, so I think

696
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 6: that's a good way. And then my favorite way is

697
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 6: I'm just on the volume receptions. So over five and

698
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 6: a half reception is still plus money for Xavier Worthy.

699
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 6: That's gone up in the playoffs, but I think it's

700
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 6: still good price. And then you know me with the

701
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 6: escalator seven or more receptions around plus two twenty five,

702
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 6: eight or more plus four to twenty five. I can't

703
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 6: quite get there on MVP because same thing with Travis Kelcey,

704
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 6: who's throwing the ball on all these it's still going

705
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 6: to be pat getting the credit for it. So I

706
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 6: think if you want an MVP look for Worthy that

707
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 6: the upside is maybe he runs it in or maybe

708
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 6: a special teams or trick play. Okay, well bet fat.

709
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 6: There's a different way you can play it, bet, like

710
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 6: a longest rush or some other creative.

711
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:46,040
Speaker 7: Way to do it. Paprick is too big of a

712
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 7: deal to go MVP.

713
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 6: I do notice though, his longest reception prop is around

714
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 6: twenty one yards or so, so a Nick Giffen special

715
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 6: here for me, negative correlated bet over five and a

716
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 6: half catches under twenty one longest reception Last week or

717
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 6: against the Bills, he had that long catch that was

718
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 6: probably not a catch right that the rest of side

719
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 6: it was a catch. Other than that play, he's not

720
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 6: gone twenty one yards or more in like seven games,

721
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:17,839
Speaker 6: So these aren't really huge long plays. They're just zero

722
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 6: yard passes that he's ripping around the end for twelve yards,

723
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 6: fifteen yards, nine yards over and over. So I think

724
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:25,319
Speaker 6: that's something that Chiefs will attack a lot. You can

725
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:29,240
Speaker 6: get over on the receptions under on the longest catch

726
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 6: is plus four to eleven because it's negative correlation. So

727
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,360
Speaker 6: I think just lots of fun ways to play Zavir

728
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 6: Worthy in this game.

729
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 1: Simon, what props of yours I want to hear? Should

730
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:41,320
Speaker 1: we be discussing right now?

731
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:42,600
Speaker 5: Uh?

732
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,720
Speaker 4: My favorite one is definitely both teams have successful fourth

733
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:50,319
Speaker 4: down covent like, so basically need the Eagles converted fourth down,

734
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 4: Chiefs converted fourth down. Both these teams I feel like,

735
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 4: are going to go for higher risk, like they know

736
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 4: what that stake.

737
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 2: Here, especially Syria. I has heard all.

738
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 4: Week about that punt he did take lefelast time they played,

739
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 4: and not going for it on fourth down.

740
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:04,200
Speaker 2: No chance he doesn't go for it.

741
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,399
Speaker 4: It was minus one twenty when I told you this morning, Chat,

742
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:07,959
Speaker 4: it's already up to minus win twenty five.

743
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:09,799
Speaker 2: So that's that's a number that's moving on.

744
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 4: Bet three six five another one we already talked about

745
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 4: with Chris Raybond.

746
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,879
Speaker 2: Either team to win by exactly three points. I think

747
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:17,319
Speaker 2: it's fun.

748
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 4: It's plus four hundred, yes, And we just talked to that,

749
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 4: like we think the Eagles are gonna, you know, perform

750
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 4: well first half.

751
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:26,919
Speaker 2: We just don't trust them full game.

752
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 4: If you like that bet, like if you just want

753
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 4: to take the Eagles first half, me and Chat already

754
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 4: said we liked the Chiefs full game I've made this bet.

755
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 2: This is another number that's moving.

756
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 4: The Chiefs were the Eagles, were Eagles win first half,

757
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 4: Chiefs to win the game was plus three six fifty

758
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 4: on bet three six five. It's down to plus five

759
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 4: to fifty now, so that number as well is moving.

760
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 4: So that's another way you going to try to attack this.

761
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 4: Where you know Mahomes I believe was Stucky or maybe

762
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 4: it was Chris gave an amazing stat that he is

763
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:54,720
Speaker 4: zero for four in his career in first half against

764
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 4: the spread. So that's another way you can play it

765
00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,880
Speaker 4: where you know, he gets down by ten points in

766
00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 4: the first half, he ends up winning these games mames.

767
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 4: So that's a fun value bet. If you're not alive better,

768
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:06,919
Speaker 4: you can't attack that. This is another way to play

769
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 4: that market. Just take the Eagles first half cheaps to

770
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 4: win the game. That's a fun plot.

771
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, Stucky gave out Eagles first half. I think plus

772
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 1: one and a half are not exactly a win, but

773
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 1: plus one and a half. In the Action Network podcast

774
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 1: Sunday six Pack, you mentioned Super Bowl MVP a couple

775
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 1: of times, brand and both with defensive players and Xavier Worthy.

776
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:32,960
Speaker 1: Why you wouldn't want to bet him for MVP. Do

777
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 1: you have MVP thoughts that are not Patrick Mahomes and

778
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts?

779
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 7: Do I have MVP thoughts? Chat out?

780
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:42,359
Speaker 6: Always have MVP thoughts. Quarterback, obviously is who you want

781
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 6: here most of the time. Fifty seven percent of all

782
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 6: MVPs are quarterbacks. Thirteen of the last eighteen have been

783
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,080
Speaker 6: just the quarterback on the winning team seventy two percent,

784
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 6: so about three out of four times.

785
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 7: Basically that that's just what we do.

786
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 6: We know that already, right if it's not a quarterback, actually,

787
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 6: defender is what you want most. That's why already gave

788
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 6: that one out ten defense. Nine receivers, no tight ends.

789
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 6: Notable in this one because Travis Kelcey only seven running

790
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 6: backs too, last one Terrell Davis nineteen ninety eight. It's

791
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 6: been a minute and a few since we got a

792
00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 6: running back, so to me, I mentioned not Xavier Worthy,

793
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 6: but you gotta start the topic, kind of work your

794
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:18,800
Speaker 6: way down here. I'm not going to bet Patrick Mahomes

795
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:21,399
Speaker 6: win MVP, even though he very clearly is the heavy

796
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:24,760
Speaker 6: favorite to ain MVP. It's plus one ten the Chiefs.

797
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,399
Speaker 6: You can basically bet minus one now minus one ten,

798
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:29,399
Speaker 6: so In order for that to be the right way

799
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 6: to bet the Chiefs. I know we all want to

800
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 6: sneak in the extra twenty cents of value. Patrick Mahomes

801
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 6: has to win MVP in ninety one percent of all

802
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 6: Chiefs victories for that to be the right bet, and

803
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:40,560
Speaker 6: I know it feels like he's one hundred percent, but

804
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 6: he's not one hundred percent. Like you can literally go

805
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:44,759
Speaker 6: through the schedule this year and say, okay, who would

806
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 6: have won MVP that game, and he wins MVP like

807
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 6: probably fourteen or fifteen of the games, which is eighty

808
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 6: five percent, which is a lot, and it's still not

809
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 6: ninety one percent. So you shouldn't bet Mahomes. There's too

810
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 6: much randomness there. I personally can't bet Sakuan. He has

811
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 6: been I think the Eagles MVP in something like eight

812
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 6: to ten games this season, way more than you'd expect

813
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:06,759
Speaker 6: a running back to be it, including I would say

814
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 6: all three playoff games so far. But at plus two

815
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 6: to eighty, he's going to be MVP over half of

816
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:15,879
Speaker 6: all Eagles wins for that to be the bet, and

817
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:18,319
Speaker 6: I know that's what it feels like with him, But

818
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 6: no running back, we're over the last twenty six years

819
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:26,359
Speaker 6: in a running back winning Super Bowl MVP, and I'm

820
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:28,440
Speaker 6: supposed to bet that the Eagles win the game, and

821
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 6: over half of the time he's MVP. To me the

822
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:34,400
Speaker 6: way I would bet MVP here, even though I'm betting

823
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,280
Speaker 6: Chiefs win the Super Bowl, I think Jalen Hurts MVP

824
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:38,960
Speaker 6: is a right play, and I think it's actually a

825
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:41,840
Speaker 6: great way to invest in Philly and sort of hedge

826
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 6: against my Kansas City bet because I think the Chiefs

827
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 6: win the Super Bowl because of Jalen Hurts. But if

828
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 6: I'm wrong about the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, I

829
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 6: also think it'll be because of Jalen Hurts. I think

830
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:56,320
Speaker 6: it'll be because Hurts did the tush push, got the touchdowns,

831
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,840
Speaker 6: got the scrambles. But I think because he did what

832
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:01,439
Speaker 6: he did last time in the Bowl. Frankly, he would

833
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 6: have won MVP clearly if they won that game. He

834
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:07,320
Speaker 6: showed up as a passer. He was plus one forty

835
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 6: in the Super Bowl last time. Now he's plus three eighty.

836
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 6: That's because Saquon showed up and soaked up a lot

837
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:17,400
Speaker 6: of that value for MVP. But quarterbacks win MVP seventy

838
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:19,799
Speaker 6: two percent of the last eighteen years. He only has

839
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:22,279
Speaker 6: to win MVP forty three percent of Eagles wins for

840
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 6: this to be the right bet. So to me, I

841
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 6: think that's just it's just value. Even though I said

842
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:30,240
Speaker 6: this is the reason I'm not picking them. I think

843
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:32,520
Speaker 6: you can be wrong about something and sometimes it's okay

844
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:34,520
Speaker 6: to bet of what if I'm wrong about this, And

845
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:36,799
Speaker 6: I think this is a great way to possibly be

846
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 6: wrong about it. Longer down the board of the other weapons,

847
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 6: I like Davante's sixty six to one.

848
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:44,879
Speaker 7: He was thirty three oh one last time. I think

849
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 7: that the Chiefs.

850
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 6: Are going to justst and play more zone than they

851
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 6: usually do. Davante is the zone beater. He's had ninety

852
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 6: nine yards all three games against Bags, So I kind

853
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 6: of like that as just a dart throw late. And

854
00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 6: I mentioned those defenders, But to me, it's three main

855
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 6: guys you're starting at. It's Saquon, It's Hurts, and it's Mahomes,

856
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 6: And only one of those numbers I think is the

857
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 6: right number to play.

858
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:10,719
Speaker 1: Some would argue not me, because I'm not crazy. Some

859
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:14,319
Speaker 1: would argue that Super Bowl it was probably the last

860
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 1: time Jalen Hurts had a good game.

861
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:20,320
Speaker 7: I mean, it's probably the best game you ever played.

862
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:22,399
Speaker 1: Right, Simon, Simon, did you hear what I said?

863
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:24,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're Chicago fan. You don't know what good quarterbacks

864
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 2: look like.

865
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 7: He does now they got Ben Jonson.

866
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 1: It is interesting, you know, when you put the odds

867
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:37,160
Speaker 1: in that context for Saquon. I bet if you asked

868
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:38,840
Speaker 1: the average fan. And there have been studies about this,

869
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:45,359
Speaker 1: about sort of decision making and rationale, that people's memories

870
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 1: of things influences and has more weight than it actually

871
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:54,399
Speaker 1: does in real life. And I bet if you went

872
00:40:54,480 --> 00:41:00,400
Speaker 1: to most fans and said, was Saquon the MVP of

873
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 1: an Eagles win? Fifty percent of the time people would say, oh, yes,

874
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 1: for sure this year, when in reality he wasn't. That's

875
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 1: a fascinating it is while you laughing, it's fascinating.

876
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:15,719
Speaker 2: Oh god, quick, get to Evan.

877
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 1: Not yet, Brandon, Brandon before you go, give us one

878
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 1: future for next season. I love your hot reads on

879
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast. When you're giving us the two

880
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 1: bets you're making right away seven days in advance, we

881
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 1: are seven months in advance. Give us a future.

882
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 6: Yeah, here's the twenty twenty six hot read, a full

883
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:46,719
Speaker 6: year in advance. So I have an article just went

884
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:49,879
Speaker 6: out at the actionnetwork dot com on who is next

885
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:53,319
Speaker 6: year's Eagles, Who's next year's Chiefs, next year's commanders? And

886
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:55,120
Speaker 6: this is one we've done a few years in a row.

887
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:59,360
Speaker 6: Last year in this article I picked as next year's Ravens.

888
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:02,759
Speaker 6: Then the Philadelphia Eagles twenty two to one, my first

889
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:05,239
Speaker 6: Super Bowl bet a year ago, because they fit a

890
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 6: formula of Okay, they started out ten to one last year.

891
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:09,839
Speaker 6: They were coming off the Super Bowl berth, and they

892
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 6: just fell apart late. But the system was there right.

893
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:14,279
Speaker 6: We knew what would work and what worked this year

894
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:18,399
Speaker 6: obviously is elite defense, devastated rushing attack. Okay, So who

895
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:21,439
Speaker 6: are next year's Eagles? My first Super Bowl bet for

896
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 6: the new year San Francisco forty nine ers. It fits

897
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:28,440
Speaker 6: the Eagles formula. Kyle Shanahan has been in the NFC

898
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 6: Championship Game five of the last nine years. There is

899
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 6: no Patrick Mahomes in the NFC, but Kyle Shanahan might

900
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 6: be as close as we get over in the NFC

901
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 6: to just showing up year after year. Since they acquired

902
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 6: Christian McCaffrey, they've been an offensive juggernaut and nothing changed

903
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:47,439
Speaker 6: this year. Nobody magically learned how to stop them. They

904
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 6: just stopped being healthy. Ever, McCaffrey played four games, I

905
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 6: missed ten, Trent Williams miss seven, Hurdy Deebo Kittle all

906
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:57,759
Speaker 6: miss multiple games. So the offense is gonna be great.

907
00:42:57,800 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 6: We know that about them. And then you get the

908
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:04,359
Speaker 6: fan here, Robert Sala coming back from the Jets, coming

909
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 6: home to get rid of Nick Sorens and the failed

910
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 6: defensive coordinator. Sala's defense has been allowed top five fewest

911
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:16,399
Speaker 6: yards five of the last six seasons. That defense under

912
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:18,839
Speaker 6: Sala is going to be way better. And we saw

913
00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:20,759
Speaker 6: even this year, as bad as the Jets were a

914
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 6: laughing stock, Sala left, that defense fell apart like they

915
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:27,800
Speaker 6: were still decent defense. He leaves and they just completely

916
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 6: went to shambles after that. This year, the Niners, even

917
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:34,840
Speaker 6: in a season from hell, still finish top ten offense,

918
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:38,279
Speaker 6: still finish almost top ten defense by DVAA. They went

919
00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 6: two and six and one score games. Flip those results

920
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:42,840
Speaker 6: that we know are mostly luck driven unless you're the

921
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 6: Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Just flip those results. They win

922
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:49,319
Speaker 6: the division at ten and seven, even in the year

923
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:52,799
Speaker 6: from hell, to me The Niners are right there with

924
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:55,120
Speaker 6: the top five. Their price at number six, but kind

925
00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:57,840
Speaker 6: of a distance six at every book. They to me,

926
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 6: are probably the favorite in the I see you right now.

927
00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:03,800
Speaker 6: Knowing what we know about Sala on the defense and

928
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 6: everything on the offense, they'll be right in the Mikes.

929
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 6: Twenty to one Niners is my first super Bowl pick

930
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 6: for next season.

931
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:10,360
Speaker 2: Wow.

932
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:14,800
Speaker 1: I like it. It's exciting. Check out all of Brandon's

933
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:17,880
Speaker 1: picks for super Bowl fifty on his super Bowl Best

934
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 1: Bets episode of the Action Network podcast with Evan Abrams,

935
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 1: who we will get too shortly. We got a little

936
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:27,480
Speaker 1: bit of work left to do along with Super Bowl

937
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:32,320
Speaker 1: articles out now at actionnetwork dot com. Thank you Brandon Anderson.

938
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 1: Great work. Uh Simon, guess what what? It's time for

939
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:43,759
Speaker 1: the Big Balls Better than weekt Our, Last one of

940
00:44:43,800 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 1: the Year, presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls,

941
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:53,200
Speaker 1: Tommy John has the support. Great games start with great

942
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:59,240
Speaker 1: underwear and Tommy John makes the greatest look. We've talked

943
00:44:59,239 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 1: about the Chiefs, We've talked about the money line, We've

944
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:05,840
Speaker 1: talked about the side. The money line was my exec decision.

945
00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:09,280
Speaker 1: The side with Simon says we're going with the total

946
00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:12,759
Speaker 1: it's moved down. It was about fifty to fifty and

947
00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 1: a half, then forty nine and a half down to

948
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 1: forty eight and a half. A lot of places you

949
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:19,400
Speaker 1: can still get a forty nine at bet three six five. Simon,

950
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:22,879
Speaker 1: this is a big balls back because I think we're

951
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 1: both a little bit antsy about it.

952
00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:28,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, and it's really probably the most heavy of the

953
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 4: game for splitswise, of the public versus professionals.

954
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:35,040
Speaker 2: Right, it's just only professionals.

955
00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:36,879
Speaker 4: There's the only people I've talked to you, especially walking

956
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:40,120
Speaker 4: on the sports books, talking to different fans, especially Eagles fans,

957
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:42,719
Speaker 4: They're just like, oh, we put up fifty five last week,

958
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,440
Speaker 4: we're getting at least forty against this chief defense. In

959
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:47,160
Speaker 4: the back of mind, I'm just like, yeah, that's not

960
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:50,440
Speaker 4: how this works at all. So yeah, I get why

961
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 4: the public is so excited about it, But me and

962
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:53,480
Speaker 4: you talked about it's.

963
00:45:53,360 --> 00:45:54,839
Speaker 2: A key number still, forty nine.

964
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:57,640
Speaker 4: Please grab that while you still can, because the fear

965
00:45:57,719 --> 00:46:00,240
Speaker 4: is right now that this professional money is gonna keeping

966
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:01,799
Speaker 4: this down to forty eight and a half. Forty eight,

967
00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:04,239
Speaker 4: so we're crossing some key numbers here. You want to

968
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 4: get that forty nine. It's a big deal to get it.

969
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:13,360
Speaker 1: The one thing that worries me is we see so

970
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:16,840
Speaker 1: often with these Super Bowls things go crazy in the

971
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 1: second half. You know, the Chiefs have been down ten points,

972
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:26,000
Speaker 1: seven points whatever in multiple Super Bowls, low scoring super Bowls,

973
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:28,759
Speaker 1: ten to three, whatever it was, and then they come

974
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:32,439
Speaker 1: back and in the second half five six touchdowns by

975
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:36,399
Speaker 1: both teams. How do you feel about under twenty four

976
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:37,439
Speaker 1: and a half in the first half.

977
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:40,520
Speaker 2: I don't mind it. I mean I like it, and

978
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:41,200
Speaker 2: I bet it.

979
00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 4: And you know, doctor Nick came on here talked about

980
00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 4: how the chief second half unders. I've been a cash

981
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 4: Kyle these last two years and we'veing bet in that

982
00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:51,399
Speaker 4: as well. So I'll be honest with you, Chad, it's

983
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:54,239
Speaker 4: never fun doing it. We're just playing the numbers, and

984
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:56,719
Speaker 4: this is a long term winner, like the biggest one

985
00:46:56,800 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 4: of my life. We literally hit the under last year

986
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 4: a game that went to overtime. When we hit it

987
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:02,440
Speaker 4: by half a point, that's right, So that might be

988
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:05,840
Speaker 4: peak for us. It's usually, in my opinion, won't be

989
00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 4: that close. Like you to hit this over, you're gonna

990
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 4: need a ton of luck on both sides. In the

991
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 4: red zone, like both these teams make their money, make

992
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:16,400
Speaker 4: a team's kick field goals. On the same side, Eagles

993
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:18,160
Speaker 4: have been inconsistent this year in the red zone. Same

994
00:47:18,200 --> 00:47:20,600
Speaker 4: with the Chiefs, Like, I mean even the playoffs shot.

995
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:22,799
Speaker 4: How many times are you losing your damn mind when

996
00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:24,759
Speaker 4: Hurts would take that sack and get out of field

997
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:27,320
Speaker 4: goal range and they're punting. You do that against the Chiefs,

998
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:29,959
Speaker 4: you're dead, like you're not gonna You're not hitting it over.

999
00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:32,880
Speaker 4: So I just think it's an overreaction by the public

1000
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:34,840
Speaker 4: way too much. There's still a ton of value in

1001
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:35,960
Speaker 4: this under in my opinion.

1002
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 1: All Right, we're going with the under as our big

1003
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 1: balls bet of the week. Simon, what a wild season.

1004
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:47,160
Speaker 1: We've had so many ups and downs since Week one.

1005
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:52,439
Speaker 1: Scant twenty three weeks ago, and right there holding us up,

1006
00:47:53,160 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 1: supporting us every step of the way. We're two crucial parties.

1007
00:47:59,600 --> 00:48:05,959
Speaker 1: First are tens of thousands of incredible listeners, but even

1008
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 1: more important are dozens of pairs of Tommy John underwear.

1009
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 1: By providing us with the most comfortable underwear, shirts, and

1010
00:48:15,040 --> 00:48:18,880
Speaker 1: casual essentials, the grind of the NFL season never broke

1011
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:24,720
Speaker 1: our joyful spirits nor clouded our clear eyed decision making

1012
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:28,239
Speaker 1: all season long. We told you, if you've got the balls,

1013
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:33,800
Speaker 1: Tommy John has the support, and it's true. We did

1014
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 1: have the balls and they did have our support. So

1015
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:42,120
Speaker 1: if you've enjoyed yourself this season, do yourself and your

1016
00:48:42,120 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 1: loved ones a favor. Let the unrivaled comfort and flexibility

1017
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:54,280
Speaker 1: of our beloved sponsor Tommy John into your life. Simon,

1018
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 1: why will you be wearing more Tommy John in twenty

1019
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Speaker 1: twenty five?

1020
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Speaker 2: Because comfort is king.

1021
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:02,359
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1022
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1023
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1024
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1025
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1041
00:50:11,480 --> 00:50:14,040
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1042
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1043
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1044
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Speaker 1: It was great. I was so excited.

1045
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:29,920
Speaker 6: All right, Foxhole, you know me, regardless of what's going on,

1046
00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:31,080
Speaker 6: I'm a Foxhole guy.

1047
00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 7: I commit to a team, I commit to a city.

1048
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:34,359
Speaker 2: I'm a Foxhole guy.

1049
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 1: We're going with Saquon Barkley. Under his total rushing yards

1050
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:41,360
Speaker 1: of one hundred and twelve, the number has been coming down.

1051
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:45,280
Speaker 1: Ray Bound has this power? Has this projected at closer

1052
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:48,799
Speaker 1: to one oh six Kerner's at one ten. I think

1053
00:50:48,840 --> 00:50:51,040
Speaker 1: a lot of the stuff if everyone listened to Tuesday,

1054
00:50:51,400 --> 00:50:54,799
Speaker 1: we were talking a lot about leaning into under offensive

1055
00:50:55,160 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 1: yardage totals. We especially were looking at the under total

1056
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 1: rushing yardage total and like obviously siquan to go under

1057
00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:06,839
Speaker 1: one hundred and twelve. Simon also mentioned a really fun

1058
00:51:06,880 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 1: one both teams to be successful fourth down minus one

1059
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:13,719
Speaker 1: twenty five now at bet three six five, but Fox

1060
00:51:13,719 --> 00:51:16,480
Speaker 1: Oil was sick one Barkley under one hundred and twelve

1061
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:20,600
Speaker 1: rushing yards Simon, your biggest bets.

1062
00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:23,360
Speaker 4: Biggest bets, definitely in the under. That's my biggest position

1063
00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:24,520
Speaker 4: image could you chap four?

1064
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:24,920
Speaker 2: Came on?

1065
00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:28,480
Speaker 4: Like, I wish I could just take this week off

1066
00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:30,760
Speaker 4: because I hate going against my favorite team, the Eagles,

1067
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:33,920
Speaker 4: But it's lining up that way, pretty heavy on the

1068
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:37,000
Speaker 4: chief side, pretty heavy on the under. When it comes

1069
00:51:37,040 --> 00:51:39,800
Speaker 4: to the prop market, Definitely that fourth down one's a

1070
00:51:39,840 --> 00:51:40,279
Speaker 4: big one.

1071
00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:41,960
Speaker 2: Will there be a two pointer?

1072
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:44,799
Speaker 4: I bet pretty heavy on And you know Chad knows,

1073
00:51:44,840 --> 00:51:48,680
Speaker 4: my favorite bet is usually one offensive lineman score a touchdown.

1074
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 4: I didn't take it this year just because both these

1075
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:53,480
Speaker 4: teams aren't. I haven't really been in that style this season,

1076
00:51:53,560 --> 00:51:56,440
Speaker 4: Like the year we hit it with when it was McVeigh.

1077
00:51:56,440 --> 00:51:58,440
Speaker 4: We saw we kind of inside info that McVeagh have

1078
00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 4: been practicing a two weeks lead up to that. Well,

1079
00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:02,759
Speaker 4: I don't have any great tips like that, but if

1080
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:04,000
Speaker 4: you want to, if you want to bet any other

1081
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:05,959
Speaker 4: any other player to make a pass attempt, I believe

1082
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:06,560
Speaker 4: it's plus.

1083
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:07,879
Speaker 2: Two six, that's always a fun one as well.

1084
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 4: So there's a lot of fun props out there, obviously,

1085
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:12,440
Speaker 4: and as we get closer to game time, I'll try

1086
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 4: to tweet more out as well.

1087
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:19,280
Speaker 1: Definitely, I am heavily invested in the Chiefs money line

1088
00:52:19,719 --> 00:52:22,920
Speaker 1: and also Patrick Mahomes under thirty six and a half

1089
00:52:23,239 --> 00:52:25,880
Speaker 1: pass attempts, which is basically correlated. If you think the

1090
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:27,880
Speaker 1: Chiefs are going to win, it's likely going to be

1091
00:52:27,960 --> 00:52:31,600
Speaker 1: because they're holding a lead and not passing very often.

1092
00:52:31,880 --> 00:52:38,120
Speaker 1: All Right, Finally, finally, as Simon has requested, we are

1093
00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:41,640
Speaker 1: getting to Evan Abrams, our director of research. He's got

1094
00:52:41,640 --> 00:52:44,560
Speaker 1: a brand new article up on actionnetwork dot com. Be

1095
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:48,640
Speaker 1: sure to check that out super Bowl specific. Evan, you

1096
00:52:48,680 --> 00:52:50,040
Speaker 1: get the last word, brother.

1097
00:52:50,280 --> 00:52:53,440
Speaker 2: The last word With Evan Abrams.

1098
00:52:54,080 --> 00:52:57,239
Speaker 8: We're finished talking what's up guys for I'm just going

1099
00:52:57,280 --> 00:52:59,040
Speaker 8: to start off the top here a note on something

1100
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:00,919
Speaker 8: Brandon said and I hate to agree with him because

1101
00:53:00,960 --> 00:53:03,000
Speaker 8: I kind of do all the time, but we are

1102
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:04,520
Speaker 8: podcast partners, so it's okay.

1103
00:53:04,920 --> 00:53:07,600
Speaker 9: But the Barkley MVP odds is so fascinating. So each

1104
00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:10,319
Speaker 9: of the last twenty one Super Bowls since two thousand

1105
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:12,600
Speaker 9: and three, which is when we have data, had QB's

1106
00:53:12,680 --> 00:53:14,799
Speaker 9: one to two in odds, So Barkley would be the

1107
00:53:14,840 --> 00:53:18,120
Speaker 9: shortest odds and first to be one to two other

1108
00:53:18,160 --> 00:53:21,960
Speaker 9: than a quarterback, which is kind of crazy considering Marshaun

1109
00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:26,759
Speaker 9: Lynchlairer Fitzgerald, Shawn Alexander all in that span. So fascinating there.

1110
00:53:27,040 --> 00:53:30,480
Speaker 9: My first note is from our favorite Canadian mister Gallant.

1111
00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:33,319
Speaker 9: So in each of the Kansas City Chiefs three Super

1112
00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 9: Bowl wins, four Chiefs one in each has scored a

1113
00:53:36,680 --> 00:53:41,120
Speaker 9: touchdown at plus five hundred odds or higher Mahomes twenty twenty,

1114
00:53:41,239 --> 00:53:44,000
Speaker 9: Sky Moore twenty twenty three, Cadarius twenty twenty three, and

1115
00:53:44,080 --> 00:53:46,879
Speaker 9: McCall Hardman in twenty four. So right now, that actually

1116
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:51,280
Speaker 9: leads a bunch of options, Hopkins, Juju, p Ryan Watson,

1117
00:53:51,640 --> 00:53:55,239
Speaker 9: even Chiefs defense or options. My bet probably there would

1118
00:53:55,280 --> 00:53:58,680
Speaker 9: be Juju fourth most routes and pass snaps in the

1119
00:53:58,680 --> 00:54:01,640
Speaker 9: Conference championship and actually fourth most routes in the playoffs

1120
00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:02,360
Speaker 9: for the Chiefs.

1121
00:54:02,360 --> 00:54:04,080
Speaker 3: He's getting just a lot of looks there.

1122
00:54:04,239 --> 00:54:06,480
Speaker 9: The other thing that's kind of crazy, Hollywood's aid Dot

1123
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:08,760
Speaker 9: averaged up. The target in the playoffs is almost twenty

1124
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:12,080
Speaker 9: yards downfield, so getting a lot of deep looks. So

1125
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:14,000
Speaker 9: those are the two there, any thoughts before I keep going?

1126
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:15,000
Speaker 9: I got a bunch of bets here.

1127
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:17,960
Speaker 1: My only thoughts are keep fucking going. I can't get

1128
00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:18,960
Speaker 1: enough of what you're saying.

1129
00:54:19,600 --> 00:54:23,080
Speaker 3: Ac running back debay to me is a large discussion.

1130
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:25,319
Speaker 9: So Hunt out snap Pachecko in each of the last

1131
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:28,080
Speaker 9: four games four point one yards per carry to three

1132
00:54:28,120 --> 00:54:31,760
Speaker 9: point zero even percent of carries three yards or more,

1133
00:54:32,040 --> 00:54:34,840
Speaker 9: fifty eight percent for Hunt, forty four percent for Pachecko.

1134
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 9: So I'm gonna try to believe that Hunt's going to

1135
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:39,480
Speaker 9: get the majority of carries here, which is going to

1136
00:54:39,560 --> 00:54:43,000
Speaker 9: go to these two bets. So two long shots first

1137
00:54:43,040 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 9: to twenty yards in the game, Kareem Hunt is plus

1138
00:54:45,719 --> 00:54:48,680
Speaker 9: four point fifty, which I think is intriguing. Obviously, Casey's

1139
00:54:48,680 --> 00:54:51,120
Speaker 9: starting out with the ball would be nice, but four

1140
00:54:51,200 --> 00:54:54,919
Speaker 9: first carry first quarter carries against Buffalo in the Houston game.

1141
00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:58,000
Speaker 9: They actually started with Pacheco, but he went minus one

1142
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:01,759
Speaker 9: six yards, one yard and then he was done. And

1143
00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:04,200
Speaker 9: then Pittsburgh, which is the game before that, Hunt gets

1144
00:55:04,239 --> 00:55:06,880
Speaker 9: three first quarter carries, so I think him getting a

1145
00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:09,640
Speaker 9: few chunk plays four yards, six yards, eight yards to

1146
00:55:09,640 --> 00:55:12,680
Speaker 9: get to that twenty before, like Barkley, is intriguing. The

1147
00:55:12,719 --> 00:55:15,320
Speaker 9: second bet is him to just score two touchdowns in

1148
00:55:15,360 --> 00:55:18,000
Speaker 9: this game. Everyone's betting on him to score one touchdown.

1149
00:55:18,080 --> 00:55:20,680
Speaker 9: He scored a touchdown in four straight games. He's actually

1150
00:55:20,680 --> 00:55:22,920
Speaker 9: scored a touchdown on all six of his playoff games,

1151
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:25,400
Speaker 9: which is getting close to a record. But look at

1152
00:55:25,400 --> 00:55:29,240
Speaker 9: this Casey's carries inside the five yard line this season,

1153
00:55:29,640 --> 00:55:32,520
Speaker 9: Hunt has seventeen, the rest of Kansas City has eleven.

1154
00:55:33,080 --> 00:55:36,560
Speaker 9: And then you think about just reliability. I mean, Pachecko

1155
00:55:36,920 --> 00:55:39,239
Speaker 9: and Hunt both haven't fumbled this year, but if you

1156
00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:41,719
Speaker 9: look at Hunt, he hasn't fumbled since twenty twenty one.

1157
00:55:41,920 --> 00:55:44,200
Speaker 9: So I feel like in this type of game, they're

1158
00:55:44,239 --> 00:55:46,640
Speaker 9: going to rely on him. Andy Reid also loves him.

1159
00:55:46,680 --> 00:55:48,680
Speaker 9: He's a great story. I kind of see him getting

1160
00:55:48,680 --> 00:55:50,920
Speaker 9: a lot of love here. So two touchdowns at ten

1161
00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:53,080
Speaker 9: to one is my other bet with Kareem.

1162
00:55:52,840 --> 00:55:55,879
Speaker 1: Hunt nice, I like it, love it all.

1163
00:55:55,840 --> 00:55:58,640
Speaker 9: Right, Saquon Barkley. So I'm looking at this at two

1164
00:55:58,680 --> 00:56:01,719
Speaker 9: different angles. The Score's gonna hate me for bringing this

1165
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:03,520
Speaker 9: out because they've actually been talking about this, and I

1166
00:56:03,560 --> 00:56:05,640
Speaker 9: was upset that they brought it up. But Bed three

1167
00:56:05,680 --> 00:56:08,520
Speaker 9: six five has his longest rush attempt in the game.

1168
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:12,480
Speaker 9: He was actually minus one oh five like about two

1169
00:56:12,560 --> 00:56:14,719
Speaker 9: days ago. It's now up to minus one fifty for

1170
00:56:14,800 --> 00:56:17,280
Speaker 9: him to have the longest rush attempt in the game.

1171
00:56:17,880 --> 00:56:20,359
Speaker 9: So even if Kansas City bottles him up and has

1172
00:56:20,400 --> 00:56:23,080
Speaker 9: like eight man boxes where he can struggle, the options

1173
00:56:23,080 --> 00:56:25,359
Speaker 9: for him to stay atop this market, I just think

1174
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:29,640
Speaker 9: are a plenty. I'll just regular season, he was eleven

1175
00:56:29,680 --> 00:56:32,600
Speaker 9: and five for just Philly in terms of having the

1176
00:56:32,640 --> 00:56:35,040
Speaker 9: longest rush in their games, and ten and six in

1177
00:56:35,080 --> 00:56:37,640
Speaker 9: the game itself, two and one in the playoffs are

1178
00:56:37,640 --> 00:56:39,920
Speaker 9: having the longest rush. And then if you just look

1179
00:56:39,960 --> 00:56:42,560
Speaker 9: at Philly's part of the field, because Kansas City really

1180
00:56:42,560 --> 00:56:45,920
Speaker 9: struggles in that second level yards and open field yards

1181
00:56:46,080 --> 00:56:48,560
Speaker 9: like they get small chunks, which I think helps play

1182
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:51,200
Speaker 9: to this. If you look at Philly had ninety plays

1183
00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:53,560
Speaker 9: of ten plus yards on the ground, This year, thirty

1184
00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:57,200
Speaker 9: six everyone else but Saquon. Fifty four for Saquon, So

1185
00:56:57,440 --> 00:56:59,759
Speaker 9: I just feel like there's so many outs here. I

1186
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:01,720
Speaker 9: I still like it in the minus one to fifty

1187
00:57:01,800 --> 00:57:04,640
Speaker 9: range and then the other prop, which is a little

1188
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:07,279
Speaker 9: bit contradicting. But I heard you guys say you like

1189
00:57:07,320 --> 00:57:09,640
Speaker 9: Saquon under his full game prop.

1190
00:57:10,080 --> 00:57:12,280
Speaker 3: I think a more interesting one is first half.

1191
00:57:12,560 --> 00:57:15,000
Speaker 9: It's fifty eight and a half in the first half

1192
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:18,240
Speaker 9: this season, he has eleven rushes of thirteen plus yards.

1193
00:57:18,760 --> 00:57:21,920
Speaker 3: Four of those eleven came just versus Washington.

1194
00:57:22,520 --> 00:57:24,800
Speaker 9: So to me, I think this line is just a

1195
00:57:24,800 --> 00:57:26,880
Speaker 9: little bit inflated, and I think we're getting a good

1196
00:57:26,920 --> 00:57:32,400
Speaker 9: price considering also he is a second half monster, most carried,

1197
00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:35,920
Speaker 9: most rushing yards, most ten plus yards, all in the

1198
00:57:36,000 --> 00:57:39,440
Speaker 9: second half, and Casey not lately. They've been struggling with

1199
00:57:39,480 --> 00:57:43,000
Speaker 9: explosive runs lately, but only allowed forty two of at

1200
00:57:43,080 --> 00:57:44,960
Speaker 9: least ten yards, which is the fourth fewest in the

1201
00:57:45,040 --> 00:57:45,919
Speaker 9: NFL all year.

1202
00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:48,080
Speaker 3: So I do believe Spags.

1203
00:57:47,800 --> 00:57:49,480
Speaker 9: Is going to focus on him, which is going to

1204
00:57:49,520 --> 00:57:52,640
Speaker 9: help that early bet, and then I think he find

1205
00:57:52,680 --> 00:57:54,440
Speaker 9: some longer runs to cash our first bet.

1206
00:57:54,480 --> 00:57:55,240
Speaker 3: In the second half.

1207
00:57:55,480 --> 00:57:58,360
Speaker 9: It's really going between two bets, but I kind of

1208
00:57:58,360 --> 00:57:59,320
Speaker 9: like the value on both.

1209
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:03,160
Speaker 1: I like the value on everything you say, Evan. I

1210
00:58:03,200 --> 00:58:08,760
Speaker 1: think some would say your value to this podcast is enormous.

1211
00:58:09,600 --> 00:58:11,200
Speaker 9: I was worried when you guys are going through some

1212
00:58:11,240 --> 00:58:15,000
Speaker 9: of these bets to be on your side this one, unfortunately,

1213
00:58:15,160 --> 00:58:17,440
Speaker 9: which is I have one more after this, which kind

1214
00:58:17,440 --> 00:58:20,000
Speaker 9: of just backs up Simon, But this one's not with you, guys,

1215
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:23,440
Speaker 9: but it's just another angle. So it's called reversal of fortune.

1216
00:58:23,600 --> 00:58:25,360
Speaker 9: Mahomes has trailed at the half and all four of

1217
00:58:25,360 --> 00:58:28,560
Speaker 9: his Super Bowl appearances. Stucky said that Simon said that earlier,

1218
00:58:28,680 --> 00:58:30,760
Speaker 9: but this year he's actually led at the half in

1219
00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:34,440
Speaker 9: eight straight games. So I believe the storyline each year

1220
00:58:34,440 --> 00:58:37,400
Speaker 9: in the Super Bowl of a case comeback just is

1221
00:58:37,440 --> 00:58:41,600
Speaker 9: a little noisy, Like obviously, the Hurts fumble really helped

1222
00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:43,480
Speaker 9: Casey get back in the game last time. So I

1223
00:58:43,520 --> 00:58:46,160
Speaker 9: feel like Casey has had nine first quarter drives in

1224
00:58:46,160 --> 00:58:49,560
Speaker 9: the Super Bowl, five punts, two touchdowns, one field goal,

1225
00:58:49,600 --> 00:58:51,840
Speaker 9: and a missfield goal. And the thing that I think

1226
00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:55,480
Speaker 9: is actually interesting, Philly trailing this year actually happened less

1227
00:58:55,480 --> 00:58:59,280
Speaker 9: plays than Kansas City when they run no huddle, second

1228
00:58:59,320 --> 00:59:01,520
Speaker 9: highest rate in the NFL behind the Commanders, and they

1229
00:59:01,560 --> 00:59:03,360
Speaker 9: still run it at the highest rate in the NFL

1230
00:59:03,520 --> 00:59:06,800
Speaker 9: when they're behind. So I kind of feel like Casey

1231
00:59:06,960 --> 00:59:10,360
Speaker 9: wins the first half, Philly wins the full game is

1232
00:59:10,520 --> 00:59:13,160
Speaker 9: seven or eight to one, depending on the book, while

1233
00:59:13,160 --> 00:59:16,080
Speaker 9: that same bet, if you flip it is six to

1234
00:59:16,120 --> 00:59:18,760
Speaker 9: one even five point fifty for Kansas City. So I

1235
00:59:18,800 --> 00:59:21,040
Speaker 9: know everyone likes Kansas City to win the game, but

1236
00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:23,880
Speaker 9: I do feel like a strong Kansas City start, which

1237
00:59:23,880 --> 00:59:27,000
Speaker 9: has been different than we've seen before, and Philly figuring

1238
00:59:27,000 --> 00:59:29,000
Speaker 9: it out in the second half. Because think about this,

1239
00:59:29,160 --> 00:59:32,440
Speaker 9: Eagles have a rock bottom forty percent pass rate when

1240
00:59:32,520 --> 00:59:35,120
Speaker 9: leading by at least a score. It jumps to fifty

1241
00:59:35,160 --> 00:59:37,800
Speaker 9: eight percent when trailing, So I do feel like they're

1242
00:59:37,800 --> 00:59:40,200
Speaker 9: going to run the ball when they're trailing and even

1243
00:59:40,240 --> 00:59:42,160
Speaker 9: pass it even more and get back in the game.

1244
00:59:42,240 --> 00:59:44,360
Speaker 9: So I kind of like that price it's between seven

1245
00:59:44,440 --> 00:59:45,160
Speaker 9: and eight to one.

1246
00:59:45,760 --> 00:59:48,000
Speaker 4: No, I think it's interesting take these as My view

1247
00:59:48,280 --> 00:59:50,960
Speaker 4: is the Chiefs basically not that the Afs does have

1248
00:59:51,040 --> 00:59:53,800
Speaker 4: good pass rush, but he's basically every year he makes

1249
00:59:53,840 --> 00:59:56,400
Speaker 4: the Super Bowl, he's facing arguably the best pass russ

1250
00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:58,880
Speaker 4: in the NFC. Right the Eagles two years and the

1251
00:59:59,000 --> 01:00:01,120
Speaker 4: forty nine ers, and even that Tampa team had a

1252
01:00:01,160 --> 01:00:01,959
Speaker 4: great pass rus.

1253
01:00:02,000 --> 01:00:03,680
Speaker 2: So that to me all excuse where.

1254
01:00:03,520 --> 01:00:06,040
Speaker 4: It's like Mahomes goes from doing our helly once against

1255
01:00:06,040 --> 01:00:07,840
Speaker 4: an easy pass Russ in the AFC to being like,

1256
01:00:08,000 --> 01:00:10,800
Speaker 4: holy shit, these are really good, really good pass us

1257
01:00:10,880 --> 01:00:12,680
Speaker 4: in the first half and it takes them a little

1258
01:00:12,680 --> 01:00:13,520
Speaker 4: bit to adjust to it.

1259
01:00:13,560 --> 01:00:14,960
Speaker 2: So interesting view from Evan.

1260
01:00:15,080 --> 01:00:17,880
Speaker 4: Obviously it's a nothing trend, right, It's four games, so

1261
01:00:17,960 --> 01:00:20,120
Speaker 4: I get his point of like, it doesn't really make

1262
01:00:20,200 --> 01:00:23,120
Speaker 4: much sense, but I just love the angle of Eagles

1263
01:00:23,200 --> 01:00:24,560
Speaker 4: first half, Chiefs full game.

1264
01:00:25,200 --> 01:00:28,200
Speaker 1: All right, listen, this was our super Bowl podcast. Thank

1265
01:00:28,240 --> 01:00:32,880
Speaker 1: you Brandon, thank you Evan Simon and I are a

1266
01:00:33,000 --> 01:00:35,720
Speaker 1: men filled with the men's gratitude for both you and

1267
01:00:35,880 --> 01:00:40,680
Speaker 1: Gifford and Matt Mitchell and everybody who listened all season long.

1268
01:00:41,720 --> 01:00:44,560
Speaker 1: We are rolling with the Chiefs into the Super Bowl.

1269
01:00:44,760 --> 01:00:48,640
Speaker 1: We are on the under. That's our big balls. We

1270
01:00:48,680 --> 01:00:52,680
Speaker 1: will be back with our post super Bowl wrap up

1271
01:00:54,040 --> 01:00:56,880
Speaker 1: after the game that Monday. As a reminder, the Favorite

1272
01:00:56,920 --> 01:00:59,120
Speaker 1: podcast is presented by Bet three six five and now

1273
01:00:59,200 --> 01:01:01,720
Speaker 1: new BET three six five customers get one hundred and

1274
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Speaker 1: fifty dollars in bonus bets. When you bet five dollars,

1275
01:01:05,320 --> 01:01:07,479
Speaker 1: sign up using promo code Favorites to posit ten dollars.

1276
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Speaker 1: Place a bet for five dollars, get one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be

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Speaker 1: used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. But

1279
01:01:14,520 --> 01:01:16,439
Speaker 1: ever the moment, it's never ordinary. At bet three sixty

1280
01:01:16,480 --> 01:01:21,360
Speaker 1: five must be twenty one or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

1281
01:01:21,400 --> 01:01:24,640
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

1282
01:01:24,640 --> 01:01:28,200
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

1283
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1284
01:01:30,680 --> 01:01:33,800
Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Salmon and I will return with our next

1285
01:01:33,840 --> 01:01:35,640
Speaker 1: episode of the Favorites on the Action of Work YouTube page.

1286
01:01:35,680 --> 01:01:39,280
Speaker 1: Special time Monday afternoon neon Eastern. We're going to recap

1287
01:01:39,520 --> 01:01:42,560
Speaker 1: this super Bowl. Download us some Spotify Apple Pods wherever

1288
01:01:42,560 --> 01:01:45,200
Speaker 1: you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars,

1289
01:01:45,240 --> 01:01:47,360
Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is it gets Until next time.

1290
01:01:48,080 --> 01:02:02,280
Speaker 1: Love you. Action Network reminds minds you please gamble responsibly.

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01:02:02,680 --> 01:02:05,520
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1292
01:02:05,800 --> 01:02:08,440
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred Gambler