WEBVTT - Alan Patricof Sees Difficult VC Environment

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Jason

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<v Speaker 1>Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. So do you want to bring

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<v Speaker 1>in our next guest Um at this hour? Because he

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<v Speaker 1>is certainly well known um in the venture capital world.

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<v Speaker 1>He was an early vc UM investor, from Patrick Off

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<v Speaker 1>and Code to Apax Partners to today he's the founder

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<v Speaker 1>and managing director of grey Croft. It has about a

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollars under management, and he has helped build and

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<v Speaker 1>grow such companies as A O L Office Depot, Apple,

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<v Speaker 1>so many different companies. Allen joins us on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>in New York from Southampton. M Allen, nice to have

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<v Speaker 1>you here with us. First of all, I hope you

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<v Speaker 1>are well your family as well. We did actually get

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<v Speaker 1>to speak with your son Mark last week. Yeah you

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<v Speaker 1>hear about sport, Yeah, exact streaming, streaming and politics and

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<v Speaker 1>so many different things. You Patrick Offs, You guys are

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<v Speaker 1>very intellectucy, curious and dare I say, uh uh, corporately

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<v Speaker 1>promiscuous in the best way, Alan you get you have

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<v Speaker 1>so many interests. I've got three sons and they all

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<v Speaker 1>are very active. So at you you have been an

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<v Speaker 1>active investor, and I first want to ask you. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>let's do big picture. How you see this virus because

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<v Speaker 1>it has certainly upended our world as we know it

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<v Speaker 1>on every different or from every different angle. Um, how

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<v Speaker 1>do you see it? How do you see the stimulus

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<v Speaker 1>that's being talked about in Washington? And and can you

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<v Speaker 1>even start to think about the other side of it

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<v Speaker 1>when we get through it. Well, listen, it's very obvious.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the I think, I don't know how you

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<v Speaker 1>gol anything less and devastating to certainly small growing businesses. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, to the companies that are larger, the ibms,

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<v Speaker 1>the Microsofts of the world, they can withstandard Apple people

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<v Speaker 1>with great balance sheets and lots of cash on hand,

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<v Speaker 1>they'll be you know, they'll whether it's fine. The real

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<v Speaker 1>challenges to the smaller companies, even small below the venture

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<v Speaker 1>capital level, the local businesses with small shops and small

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<v Speaker 1>whether they're industrial type companies or or retail or consumer service,

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<v Speaker 1>they're all being severely affected. Uh and I you know,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's going to be here for the next thirty

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<v Speaker 1>nine days. I mean, this peak point we keep hearing

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<v Speaker 1>the first it was April ninth, and it was April fifteenth,

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<v Speaker 1>and April and now we don't know when the data

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<v Speaker 1>is where it's been a peak, but I think we're

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<v Speaker 1>in for a difficult kid time going forward. And so Alan,

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<v Speaker 1>what does that mean for you? Know? You you mentioned

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<v Speaker 1>that the big firms are are resilient. Tell us more

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<v Speaker 1>about smaller companies because you know they have less wiggle room.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, some of them don't have those fortress balance

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<v Speaker 1>sheets that big companies do. What's the mood among you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the smaller companies that we know you're in touch with. Well, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>which is my area focuses, right? Should smaller companies are

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<v Speaker 1>in a very disadvantageous position unless they have a very

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<v Speaker 1>strong cash position, uh and not a lot of debt. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>they are going to be under severe pressure. And even

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<v Speaker 1>if they have cash, if you don't have enough cash

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<v Speaker 1>on hand for six to twelve months at least, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you're gonna have real concerns and an environment where raising

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<v Speaker 1>money is going to be harder than it's been and

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<v Speaker 1>it's never easy. I think that you're you have already

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<v Speaker 1>seen immediately, uh significant layoffs, and I think you're going

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<v Speaker 1>to continue to see that. I would expect the unemployment

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<v Speaker 1>figures are going to increase dramatically even further tomorrow. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think we're gonna be seeing that for the

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<v Speaker 1>next couple of weeks. So we get to a level

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<v Speaker 1>point in the business world. Forget about leveling off of

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<v Speaker 1>the flattening off of the of the virus curve. I

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<v Speaker 1>think the uh problem in the business is lay up.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just not people are doing gradually. They're not all

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<v Speaker 1>acting fast. But frankly, the secrets is staying alive. Here

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<v Speaker 1>is to take quick action and to not to contemplate

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<v Speaker 1>and study the problem too long. I think that one

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<v Speaker 1>has to get a visit in a financial shape very quickly,

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<v Speaker 1>and which means cutting your expenses and realistically reassessing what

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<v Speaker 1>your revenue expectations can be in this environment and you

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<v Speaker 1>know which customers you have are going to survive, who

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<v Speaker 1>is going to pay you and managing your cash. What

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<v Speaker 1>does that mean for your portfolio companies? I mean you're

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<v Speaker 1>invested in gaming, fintech, healthcare, software, publishing. I mean you're

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<v Speaker 1>in so many different areas healthcare, Um, what does it

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<v Speaker 1>mean for your portfolio companies? What are you saying to them? Um,

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<v Speaker 1>what are your expectations in terms of their survival? Well, Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>we're across the board. As you just said, I mean

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<v Speaker 1>clearly if you're in the the areas of healthcare, you're okay.

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<v Speaker 1>If you have any kind of service that's performed from

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<v Speaker 1>the home. Uh. You mentioned gaming where a company called

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<v Speaker 1>Scope lead another one called Dots. Both of those are

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<v Speaker 1>games companies that people pay on play online. They're doing

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<v Speaker 1>very well in this environment. We have a to home

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<v Speaker 1>delivery grocery companies, one quotes Thrive Markets, which is kind

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<v Speaker 1>of a uh better less coarsely try Whole Foods. And

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<v Speaker 1>then we have another company called Box which is doing

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<v Speaker 1>bulk delivery, which is a even cheaper cotsco. So those

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<v Speaker 1>companies are doing well and our hiring people and can't

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<v Speaker 1>meet meet up with the demand. We have companies that

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<v Speaker 1>are dealing with special aspects of the public market, building

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<v Speaker 1>portfolios on online and they're doing very well. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think it really is uh selective. As you're in a

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<v Speaker 1>retail store chain, you've got a lot of problems. Fortunately,

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<v Speaker 1>we don't have too many companies that are in the

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<v Speaker 1>retail area. Most of our companies are in e commerce

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<v Speaker 1>that are selling merchandise, and so far those things to

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<v Speaker 1>be holding up. But everybody has got a look take

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<v Speaker 1>a new look at their budget for this year and say, realistically,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I can't just expect that what I call

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<v Speaker 1>a cast stade of miracles, which is everything is gonna

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<v Speaker 1>be all right, and everything's gonna turn out well, and

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<v Speaker 1>and I think you've got to prepare for, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a really severe thunderstorm and perhaps a hurricane. Still with us,

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<v Speaker 1>Alan patrick Off, founder managing director of great Croft Ventures

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<v Speaker 1>Carol did a nice summary of his long four decade

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<v Speaker 1>career in the world of tech finance, backing well known companies.

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<v Speaker 1>Still in the business of startups very much, Alan joins

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<v Speaker 1>is on the phone from the Hampton's where I trust.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh A lot of people are Alan, what's it like

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<v Speaker 1>out there? Well, it's not Times Square, but I think

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<v Speaker 1>people are following the rules and things secluded, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think that, uh, you know, we're in my home and

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<v Speaker 1>very tight and not having visitors and not visiting anyone else,

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<v Speaker 1>so we're like everyone else is following the rules. There

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<v Speaker 1>are a limited number of cars on the road, and

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<v Speaker 1>there are all the only people that are open to

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<v Speaker 1>the restaurants which are served have take out at night

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<v Speaker 1>and at a drug store. But other than that, everything

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<v Speaker 1>is shut down it. Yeah, it's very interesting. Well, normally, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>in in a normal part of a normal year, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>certainly presidential election year, we would certainly be talking to

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<v Speaker 1>you in a different context about the political world. We'd

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<v Speaker 1>be looking ahead to the Democratic convention. You obviously backed

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of Democrats over the years. What do you

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<v Speaker 1>make of the political landscape in all of this, and

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<v Speaker 1>what do you think happens from here, especially on the

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<v Speaker 1>Democratic side. Well, it's no secret I've been supporting Joe

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<v Speaker 1>Biden since he announced and before he did last March,

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<v Speaker 1>last March actually almost a year, and uh, I still

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<v Speaker 1>a very loyal supporter and very enthusiastic about his prospects

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<v Speaker 1>for winning. I think he's got a difficult position, uh. Sequestered,

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<v Speaker 1>uh and comfortable to went to Churchill during World War Two,

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<v Speaker 1>sequestion in the war rooms underground. Uh. He's in his

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<v Speaker 1>own mini TV studio and not able to go out

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<v Speaker 1>in campaign and do that famous thing in politics in

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<v Speaker 1>which has touched people on their hands and their shoulders

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<v Speaker 1>and greet people. And I guess that's even when this

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<v Speaker 1>starts getting better, that that possibility is going to end also,

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<v Speaker 1>So it's going to be a different kind of campaigning

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<v Speaker 1>different fundraising challenges is much greater because you can't have

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<v Speaker 1>any live events. Everything's got to be virtual, UH, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's not as easy to stimulate high donors in

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<v Speaker 1>a virtual environment. I think it's not a problem for

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<v Speaker 1>most online UH small donors. They they've been doing that

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<v Speaker 1>regularly since last year, and he's had some very good

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<v Speaker 1>online months. I'm not familiar with what they did in March,

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<v Speaker 1>but certainly UH going into that month they would have

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<v Speaker 1>had record weeks until this thing happened. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's a it's a challenging environment. I think Joe is

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<v Speaker 1>still a candidate who's going to prevail UH and the

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<v Speaker 1>oil and I will stay that way and I will

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<v Speaker 1>be act doing everything I can actively. I think in

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<v Speaker 1>the congressional sense, UH, I think the phones UH bring

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<v Speaker 1>off the hook UH daily becomes the progressional people are

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<v Speaker 1>reading for Congress all over the country who have every

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<v Speaker 1>UH name on a list that they can cold call

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<v Speaker 1>and UH they have no hesitation, and so I think

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<v Speaker 1>the so it's a real challenge for everybody on a

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<v Speaker 1>local as well as the national level level to get

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<v Speaker 1>to raise the funds and get their message. Of course,

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<v Speaker 1>even even more importantly, Allen, how you know, in any

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<v Speaker 1>normal year with an economy tanking, one would think the

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<v Speaker 1>incumbent doesn't even stand a chance politically. But this is

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<v Speaker 1>a year unlike any other. You know, There's been folks,

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<v Speaker 1>including the President, have talked about it as like we're

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<v Speaker 1>in a war, you know, a health war. UM. And

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<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering how you think the economy, the handling of

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<v Speaker 1>the virus, the virus itself will ultimately impact the outcome.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you understand the political world better than most,

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<v Speaker 1>So how do you think all of this will ultimately

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<v Speaker 1>impact the outcome? I think it's uh. First of all,

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump was running on the basis of having a

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<v Speaker 1>very very strong economy, and we all know how many

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<v Speaker 1>times you referred to the stock market UH as a

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<v Speaker 1>mind of his success. I think that that UH line,

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<v Speaker 1>that logo line, that buzz where it is really going away.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that he certainly can't point to that.

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<v Speaker 1>On the other hand, UH, In all fairness, I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think anyone could ever have anticipated what is happening now,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's a month later or not. The decline that's

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<v Speaker 1>taking place is so dramatic that the economy's success is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be far less a factor than it might

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<v Speaker 1>have been otherwise. I think that so you get back

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<v Speaker 1>to how the how the healthcare issue is handled is

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<v Speaker 1>front and center. But I think you've come back to

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<v Speaker 1>before we get there in September, and even if they

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<v Speaker 1>ascuse me, in November, even before you get there, there's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be a chance to see these two candidates

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<v Speaker 1>had to had in some fashion. Uh, even if they're

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<v Speaker 1>standing on the stage with no one in the room,

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<v Speaker 1>and we're going to get a good sense of who

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<v Speaker 1>these people are. And I think that Joe will come

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<v Speaker 1>out on top in terms of his his style and

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<v Speaker 1>his knowledge of of domestic and foreign affairs, his ability

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<v Speaker 1>to cross the bipartisan divide. And I think that that's

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<v Speaker 1>where he will show himself and our president current president

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<v Speaker 1>will I think, bluster and and and exaggerate and make

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<v Speaker 1>lots of claims and uh, I think we're gonna have

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<v Speaker 1>to live with that, and you know, calling people names

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<v Speaker 1>that he'll create. Uh, it was just the style where

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<v Speaker 1>we will you know, gotten used to over the last

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<v Speaker 1>four years, and hopefully the public will see through that.

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<v Speaker 1>I I think I think we've all come to realize

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<v Speaker 1>who the real Donald Trump is. And I think the

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<v Speaker 1>real Joe Biden everybody is known for forty years, thirty years, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>forty years probably, and Uh, I know the kind of

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<v Speaker 1>man he is and the character he has, the compassion

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<v Speaker 1>and he has, and I think that will show through

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<v Speaker 1>when two of them are standing on a stage together.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sure Donald Trump will do everything he had not

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<v Speaker 1>to be on that stage with him, but I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think in the end he'll have to have a choice

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<v Speaker 1>on that. Alan, you think you think we will get

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<v Speaker 1>to a point that where they're both sharing a stage again.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, we're all kind of waiting to see what

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<v Speaker 1>happens or whether there's a second wave of all of this,

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<v Speaker 1>but you do foresee that ultimately, by November will be

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<v Speaker 1>in a situation where we can have two candidates safely

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<v Speaker 1>on a stage despite the virus. Well they might be.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know if they'd be safe even if there

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<v Speaker 1>were no virus, right, And so, Alan, Um, I do

0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:43.040
<v Speaker 1>want to ask you something We've been asking all of

0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:46.880
<v Speaker 1>our um, all of our guests, especially those with a

0:13:46.880 --> 0:13:50.440
<v Speaker 1>lot of experience like you have, uh in the market,

0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:53.920
<v Speaker 1>what changes on the other side of this, maybe something

0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:57.680
<v Speaker 1>that is under appreciated. How does the world change, and

0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:01.800
<v Speaker 1>especially through the lens that you look at as an investor.

0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:04.840
<v Speaker 1>I like that question. It's a very good question. It's

0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:07.120
<v Speaker 1>it's absolutely where we should all be thinking. How is

0:14:07.160 --> 0:14:09.800
<v Speaker 1>the world going to be different whenever this ends? And

0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:12.240
<v Speaker 1>I think it's going to have some profound differences. First

0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:14.960
<v Speaker 1>of all, I think we've all learned to work virtually.

0:14:15.679 --> 0:14:19.320
<v Speaker 1>What's the implication going to be for high rise office

0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:25.239
<v Speaker 1>buildings and clusters enormous clusters of of office workers, particularly

0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:31.880
<v Speaker 1>doing uh standard functions, uh whatever, whether it's an assurance industry,

0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:34.960
<v Speaker 1>the banking industry, whatever it else. We don't need, you know,

0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:39.520
<v Speaker 1>a hundred thousand squareput possibly will not need that. Maybe

0:14:39.560 --> 0:14:43.160
<v Speaker 1>the top people people are doing uh decision making need

0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:45.400
<v Speaker 1>to get together. But I think that will change in

0:14:45.480 --> 0:14:47.720
<v Speaker 1>how our work. I think we've all gotten used to

0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:49.760
<v Speaker 1>being We may get used to a four day work

0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:53.200
<v Speaker 1>we who knows, I think we we will also have

0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:57.040
<v Speaker 1>a much greater appreciation I hope for the medical profession

0:14:57.440 --> 0:14:59.880
<v Speaker 1>and what's being done and what is being done, and

0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:04.680
<v Speaker 1>that includes nurses, doctors. I would assume deadness included. The

0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:08.960
<v Speaker 1>E M T group are safety people who are making

0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:12.080
<v Speaker 1>enormous sacrifice that I think people will have a greater,

0:15:12.480 --> 0:15:16.960
<v Speaker 1>greater understanding. I think thirdly, I think we're all learning too,

0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:20.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, as a family, as family groups, we're learning

0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:24.400
<v Speaker 1>to learning about each other and learning how to that

0:15:24.560 --> 0:15:27.280
<v Speaker 1>the family meal is a tradition that maybe we'll be

0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:30.520
<v Speaker 1>restored again. And I think that, uh, there may be

0:15:30.680 --> 0:15:34.480
<v Speaker 1>a kinder, better world. And I don't mean to be

0:15:34.560 --> 0:15:39.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, too over uh schmaltzy in terms of uh,

0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:43.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, uh motherhood, but I think I think that's

0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:47.240
<v Speaker 1>a possible, very probable outcome. Another thing I think, which

0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:50.600
<v Speaker 1>is probably not as good, is I think that we're

0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:54.440
<v Speaker 1>going to become more and more nationalistic. I think, uh,

0:15:54.480 --> 0:15:58.440
<v Speaker 1>there's been a strong trend even before this happened, our

0:15:58.520 --> 0:16:01.360
<v Speaker 1>president being the leader of it. It also bars Johnson

0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:04.480
<v Speaker 1>and in England, what's happening in Italy. With's happening a

0:16:04.520 --> 0:16:09.520
<v Speaker 1>lot of countries who are becoming more isolated, more less globally,

0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:13.640
<v Speaker 1>and I think that that's going to change the nature

0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:18.600
<v Speaker 1>of our of our home to international society. And it

0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:22.040
<v Speaker 1>comes to the time where we need cooperation for the climate,

0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:26.400
<v Speaker 1>which I think everybody realizes even now, maybe when they're

0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:30.000
<v Speaker 1>outdoors more is an important thing that's worth saving. And

0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:32.480
<v Speaker 1>it's gonna be a lot harder when we have a

0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:35.080
<v Speaker 1>lot of countries who are all they all they're going

0:16:35.120 --> 0:16:37.880
<v Speaker 1>to focus on is their own self interests will be

0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:40.960
<v Speaker 1>less importing. Uh there'll be more of a trend to

0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:44.560
<v Speaker 1>try to manufacture at home and not depend on other people,

0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:48.120
<v Speaker 1>whether it's oil or whether it's electronic components. So I

0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:50.360
<v Speaker 1>think there's going to be a lot of changes, and

0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:52.960
<v Speaker 1>that's things we should be thinking about. How how is

0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:55.160
<v Speaker 1>this world going to look like when we come out

0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:59.400
<v Speaker 1>of this uh pit that we're in. So this is

0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:01.080
<v Speaker 1>like the perfect it end, But I have to ask

0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:04.080
<v Speaker 1>one follow up? Will it impact? It sounds like obviously

0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:08.560
<v Speaker 1>it will impact maybe you're investing going forward. Yeah, I

0:17:08.600 --> 0:17:10.959
<v Speaker 1>think sure it is. I mean we'll be looking at

0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:14.320
<v Speaker 1>different kinds of companies that provide different kinds of services,

0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:19.239
<v Speaker 1>and out of all uh upheavals come new opportunities. And

0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:21.040
<v Speaker 1>I think that's the way you have to look at it.

0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:25.880
<v Speaker 1>That adversity brings the opportunity, and it's for the the wise,

0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:31.240
<v Speaker 1>the astute, the the pioneers, the adventuresome who will take

0:17:31.320 --> 0:17:35.720
<v Speaker 1>chances in new ideas, new technologies, new concepts to deal

0:17:35.760 --> 0:17:37.639
<v Speaker 1>with the world that we're going to be living in,

0:17:37.880 --> 0:17:41.800
<v Speaker 1>whether it's in June or September or drive forbid it,

0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:45.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, even later. But you know we all, we

0:17:45.119 --> 0:17:47.800
<v Speaker 1>all like to see that happen sooner rather than later. Well,

0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:50.640
<v Speaker 1>we wish you so well, Alan, and thank you so much,

0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:53.359
<v Speaker 1>Um for finding a nice tunk of time to spend

0:17:53.359 --> 0:17:55.520
<v Speaker 1>with us and really get your insights. So do take

0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.280
<v Speaker 1>care of yourself and your family. I'm delighted to have

0:17:58.359 --> 0:18:02.320
<v Speaker 1>Alan Patrick off with us, of course um the founder

0:18:02.359 --> 0:18:06.040
<v Speaker 1>and uh managing director of greg Crop, but really someone

0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:08.919
<v Speaker 1>who's legendary within the venture capital world, Jason and the

0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:12.080
<v Speaker 1>political world to political you heard it all. There is

0:18:12.480 --> 0:18:15.399
<v Speaker 1>the scope. You can tell why he has such smart boys.

0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:18.000
<v Speaker 1>He's a good guy. Uh. In any case, Alan PATRICKROF

0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:18.680
<v Speaker 1>grateful to him.