WEBVTT - How Can Democrats Get Their Mojo Back? 0:00:03.320 --> 0:00:07.040 Hello there. I hope you are enjoying your Memorial Day weekend, 0:00:07.080 --> 0:00:12.000 and we are uploading right now on actual on the 0:00:12.039 --> 0:00:17.840 actual Memorial Day, or the day that we are honoring 0:00:18.320 --> 0:00:23.640 those we've lost in service to this country. On Memorial Day. 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:26.600 There's always this debate. You don't celebrate Memorial Day, you 0:00:26.720 --> 0:00:28.760 honor Memorial Day. I'm not going to get into the 0:00:29.080 --> 0:00:34.720 nuances of language here. I think sometimes social media gets 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:39.000 up in arms over that. I have a fascinating guest today, 0:00:39.080 --> 0:00:44.440 Roy to Shia. He is one half of the authorship 0:00:44.440 --> 0:00:47.839 of a book that, had you read it before November 0:00:47.880 --> 0:00:50.880 twenty twenty four, you would have known in advance exactly 0:00:51.000 --> 0:00:53.240 how Kamala Harris was going to lose his presidential race. 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:56.880 Roy To Shara is a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, 0:00:56.880 --> 0:00:59.320 and along with John Judas, he wrote a book that 0:00:59.400 --> 0:01:03.000 came out I Believe the Fall of twenty three Spring 0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:05.600 of twenty four, with the title where have all the 0:01:05.600 --> 0:01:13.000 Democrats Gone? And essentially every trend line that came to 0:01:13.160 --> 0:01:15.560 fruition in November of twenty twenty four, he had already 0:01:15.600 --> 0:01:18.400 identified in this book. And as I said, and many 0:01:18.400 --> 0:01:20.920 of you know this, I've used this book, among three 0:01:21.040 --> 0:01:23.440 or four others, as a teaching text for a class 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:27.280 that I teach on behalf of USC called How Washington Works. 0:01:27.640 --> 0:01:31.440 And as one of my students wrote, boy, I wish 0:01:31.480 --> 0:01:33.240 I had read this book before the election, and I 0:01:33.240 --> 0:01:37.319 wouldn't have been so surprised by the result. The point is, 0:01:37.360 --> 0:01:40.200 it's an excellent book, definitely worth your time if you're 0:01:40.240 --> 0:01:43.240 trying to figure out what's going on inside the two parties, 0:01:43.880 --> 0:01:45.960 And frankly, is the two party system going to be 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:48.440 able to hold up? And if we're stuck here with 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:50.680 the two party system, what are the Democrats going to 0:01:50.680 --> 0:01:53.120 do to respond to what we've seen on the right. 0:01:53.640 --> 0:01:55.600 And I do think when you listen to the conversation 0:01:55.680 --> 0:01:59.760 that Roy tischera does provide a path for Democrats to 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:03.240 become a majority party again and a majority governing party again. 0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:05.160 But they've got a lot of work to do. And 0:02:07.520 --> 0:02:09.520 I think you will hear in the tone of the 0:02:09.520 --> 0:02:11.760 conversation that we have we're both a little bit skeptical 0:02:11.800 --> 0:02:14.079 that the Democrats have lost enough. And I think that's 0:02:14.120 --> 0:02:19.200 the real question. Have they lost enough to make the 0:02:19.320 --> 0:02:22.799 changes necessary to become a majority party again? Right in 0:02:22.880 --> 0:02:29.240 nineteen eighty eight. Democrats lost the presidential race, with George H. W. 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:31.200 Bush getting over four hundred electoral votes. It was a 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:35.440 race that they were supposed to win. It really suddenly 0:02:35.480 --> 0:02:39.680 made the party rethink things. When you lose by essentially 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:43.680 a percentage point a couple hundred thousand total total votes 0:02:43.720 --> 0:02:45.760 and a handful of states could have flip the outcome, 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:48.320 do you think you have to make major changes or 0:02:48.400 --> 0:02:52.639 minor changes? You know, I remember a conversation and I've 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:55.360 for those of you have been longtime listeners of me, 0:02:55.480 --> 0:02:59.639 know this anecdote. Well, but when I did a when 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:03.840 I did a deep dive into what happened? Why is 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:07.800 Wisconsin the most polarized state in the country? Like why 0:03:07.840 --> 0:03:11.639 did Wisconsin become more polarized than anything else? And essentially, 0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:16.080 you know, our thesis was a Wisconsin is ground zero, 0:03:16.240 --> 0:03:20.400 patient zero for polarization, which really began at the start 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:23.280 of the twenty first century and really foreshadowed everything we've 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:27.320 seen nationally. And Tommy Thompson, the longtime Republican governor during 0:03:27.320 --> 0:03:29.640 the last part of the twentieth century there in Wisconsin, 0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:32.519 I had him and Jim Doyle, the last two term 0:03:32.520 --> 0:03:38.000 Democratic governor before Tony Evers got in there and both 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:40.400 of them remarked, But it was Tommy Thompson who said, 0:03:40.400 --> 0:03:42.320 you know, until one of the two parties loses by 0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:45.840 more than a point in any given election, are you 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:48.360 going to have either party do any soul searching? Right 0:03:48.400 --> 0:03:50.440 when you have a path to fifty percent plus one 0:03:50.480 --> 0:03:54.720 to win, you don't think about you know, maybe we 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:56.800 have some long term issues here, long term issues there, 0:03:56.800 --> 0:03:59.040 but if you still think of a path to victory, 0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:01.960 you don't work about it. It's like a Frankly. It's 0:04:01.960 --> 0:04:04.600 like if you know Frankly to pick on Wisconsin, it's 0:04:04.640 --> 0:04:07.680 like the Milwaukee Bucks with Yannis. Right, if you think 0:04:07.760 --> 0:04:12.440 having Yannis plus you know, a semi healthy Dame Lillard 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:15.400 can at least get you to be competitive and maybe 0:04:15.400 --> 0:04:18.120 you have a chance to make the Eastern Conference finals. 0:04:18.880 --> 0:04:22.599 Maybe you don't do the teardown. Right, But if you 0:04:22.600 --> 0:04:26.160 you know, if you're if you're the if you're if 0:04:26.160 --> 0:04:28.800 you're the Charlotte Hornets or you're the Miami Heat, you 0:04:28.880 --> 0:04:31.400 think we're not even getting to the Eastern Conference Finals, 0:04:31.400 --> 0:04:33.440 We're going to do a whole teardown. And I think 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:35.839 that's the conversation Democrats are still in They're not in 0:04:35.880 --> 0:04:40.560 a teardown mindset yet, right, They're still in this in 0:04:40.640 --> 0:04:43.920 this place where I think you still have a good 0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:46.720 chunk of the party that things just tinkering is going 0:04:46.800 --> 0:04:48.920 to do it. Oh, if they just come up with 0:04:48.960 --> 0:04:52.440 a better message with Latino voters, they will be able 0:04:52.480 --> 0:04:54.839 to fix their problems in the Southwest. Or if they 0:04:55.000 --> 0:04:57.520 just come up with a better message for working class 0:04:57.600 --> 0:05:01.080 voters and Michigan, then maybe they improve things in an 0:05:01.120 --> 0:05:05.920 Ohio or in Iowa versus what happened after eighty eight 0:05:05.960 --> 0:05:09.200 when it was a slaughter And you realize, as I 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:13.240 pointed out before that the combination of McGovern Carter, Mondale 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:16.760 and Ducaccus and a message of massive weakness inside the 0:05:16.760 --> 0:05:20.000 Democratic Party that they may have had good ideas, but 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:23.360 they had weak leadership. And Bill Clinton came along and 0:05:23.800 --> 0:05:26.320 just came up with a new theory of the case, 0:05:26.400 --> 0:05:31.200 but was a bit more but led essentially with a 0:05:31.200 --> 0:05:34.359 bit more strength in how to do it. And I 0:05:34.400 --> 0:05:38.680 think that that's the question. I have our Democrats in 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:41.080 that mode or is there such a desperation to win 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:44.760 they'll take any answer. Well, this we're going to find 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:47.720 out in a couple of years. But before we get 0:05:47.760 --> 0:05:49.599 to the conversation with Gorod to share, I do you 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:52.600 want to back up a little thing on the weekend's events, 0:05:52.880 --> 0:05:56.479 because there was some Look, let's talk about what it is, 0:05:56.560 --> 0:06:01.400 which is, if the roles were reversed. What would the 0:06:01.480 --> 0:06:07.320 level of conversation and criticism be if Joe Biden and 0:06:07.400 --> 0:06:10.039 Hunter Biden were trying to make money off of the presidency. 0:06:10.120 --> 0:06:13.760 Oh did they do that? What was the level of conversation? 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:16.839 And I'm struck by something the Speaker of the House, 0:06:16.880 --> 0:06:19.279 Mike Johnson said to my friend Jake Tapper on CNN 0:06:19.800 --> 0:06:23.760 over the weekend. Jake Tapper was asking him about the 0:06:23.800 --> 0:06:26.760 mean coin, the infamous meme coin dinner where basically, if 0:06:26.760 --> 0:06:30.360 you bought this phony meme coin basically the baseball cards 0:06:30.360 --> 0:06:35.080 of crypto, right, it's not worth a thing, these Trump 0:06:35.120 --> 0:06:38.839 meme coins. It's like it's like selling something from the 0:06:38.920 --> 0:06:44.120 Franklin Mint, if you will. But if you bought enough 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:49.240 of them, you got to have dinner with him. Mike 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:54.560 Johnson actually said, well, the Bidens were doing it, we're 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:59.280 doing it undercover. Donald Trump does it out in the 0:06:59.320 --> 0:07:05.479 open for everybody to see, and therefore it's Okay, so 0:07:05.960 --> 0:07:09.960 just stop and think about that rationale. The Speaker of 0:07:10.000 --> 0:07:12.720 the House said, the reason he's not alarmed by Donald 0:07:12.720 --> 0:07:17.280 Trump profiting off the presidency versus the amount of effort 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:20.760 he did to investigate whether Hunter Biden was essentially profiting 0:07:20.800 --> 0:07:24.560 off the Biden presidency. The big distinction for him is 0:07:25.120 --> 0:07:29.920 Biden tried to hide it. Trump doesn't hide it. So 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:33.000 didn't ask yourself, where are we headed as a society? 0:07:33.040 --> 0:07:36.360 Where are we headed in our politics? If basically one 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:42.720 political party is completely okay with this corruptible practice, and 0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:44.920 I say it's corruptible. I don't want to assume corruption 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:48.440 has happened yet, but it is easy to corrupt. It 0:07:48.520 --> 0:07:51.640 is obvious. It is, you know, sort of peeing on 0:07:51.680 --> 0:07:55.200 your leg and telling you it's reigning. Kind of obvious 0:07:55.640 --> 0:08:01.000 at this point. And yet that's the rationale, that's the defense. 0:08:01.720 --> 0:08:03.720 And you want to talk about why I keep quoting 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:05.960 Bob Dole from nineteen ninety six all the time, which 0:08:06.040 --> 0:08:10.440 was where's the outrage? And I think on this one, 0:08:10.560 --> 0:08:13.800 where's the outrage? And there is none? And there's and 0:08:13.840 --> 0:08:16.520 now the Republican Party is putting itself in a position 0:08:17.400 --> 0:08:20.360 where they're just going to be laughed anytime, laughed out 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:23.760 of the room, anytime they attempt to criticize anybody else 0:08:23.800 --> 0:08:28.040 on corruption issues. The silence, the ignoring of what Donald 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:30.400 Trump is doing with this presidency is something else. Now, 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:37.000 let's take his commencement address at West Point, his decision 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:40.079 to politicize the address, his decision to wear a maga hat. 0:08:42.000 --> 0:08:44.360 I'm going to take you back into the into the 0:08:44.400 --> 0:08:47.719 way back machine to go back. It's Barack Obama who 0:08:47.760 --> 0:08:55.000 was president. And let me just remind you of certain 0:08:55.040 --> 0:08:59.680 controversies that took place when Barack Obama did things with 0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:04.559 the military, some commencement addresses, you know, saluting the military. 0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:10.200 There was a huge outrage over what Sarah Palin deemed 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:15.080 the latte salute, that how did Barack Obama hold a 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:17.560 latte while he saluted the Marines as he was i 0:09:17.559 --> 0:09:20.320 think going on to Marine one. And it became this 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:23.839 sort of obsession with sort of whatever you want, whatever 0:09:23.880 --> 0:09:28.120 you want to call you know, not journalists, not conservative journalists, 0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:32.560 but just sort of conservative influencer, wanta bees, pundits, whatever 0:09:32.720 --> 0:09:35.320 Fox News calls itself these days, because it's not a 0:09:35.360 --> 0:09:38.000 journalistic enterprise, but it's just sort of a vehicle for 0:09:38.320 --> 0:09:43.400 grievance and outrage. And this was a huge part of 0:09:43.440 --> 0:09:47.760 their outrage was did Barack Obama do enough of a salute? 0:09:47.760 --> 0:09:50.920 And I remember another time was a salute wasn't stiff enough. 0:09:52.480 --> 0:09:55.120 But I can't imagine the level of outrage. Had Barack 0:09:55.120 --> 0:09:58.040 Obama come up with an ofa hat and did an 0:09:58.040 --> 0:10:02.439 Obama for America and and took a speech and used 0:10:02.440 --> 0:10:06.840 his commencement speech to just trash his predecessor or predecessors 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:10.160 right the most sacred of things. And it's really sort 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:15.640 of an irrational you know, he he doesn't acknowledge the 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:18.200 fact that these kids, these kids went to West Point 0:10:18.200 --> 0:10:20.040 the majority of the time, their commander in chief was 0:10:20.120 --> 0:10:24.080 Joe Biden. It didn't seem to rot the place so 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:27.560 much that West Point still exists, that West Point was 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:34.559 still teaching and graduating high performing cadets. So it is 0:10:35.240 --> 0:10:38.880 it was just, you know, I know, we're no longer astonished. 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:42.120 And I know what about ism is a disease that 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:44.560 that is all over the place, particularly on the right, 0:10:44.600 --> 0:10:46.160 but it's it's there on the left. 0:10:46.840 --> 0:10:47.040 You know. 0:10:47.160 --> 0:10:49.400 I'll give you another example. There's a there's a huge 0:10:50.080 --> 0:10:52.200 if you if you follow social media. Over the weekend, 0:10:52.280 --> 0:10:55.120 there's this, you know, a lot of folks on the 0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:59.839 right trying to say, well, left wing ideology creates more 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:04.320 violent actors then right wing ideology. And this one is 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:08.080 in direct reference to the terrace that gunned down the 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:14.400 Israeli diplomats last week in Washington, DC. And I see 0:11:14.400 --> 0:11:16.520 this on the left as well. Sometimes when there's a 0:11:16.640 --> 0:11:19.000 violent incident and it's a right winger that does it, 0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:22.240 whether it was the shooting in Kenosha or the shooting 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:25.160 the Tree of Life synagogue. So if we want to 0:11:25.200 --> 0:11:27.880 make it directly sort of anti semiticaid on the right, 0:11:27.920 --> 0:11:30.800 anti semiticiated on the left. Last time I checked is 0:11:31.080 --> 0:11:34.040 you have violent crazy people that exist on the left, 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:36.600 and you have violent crazy people that exist on the right. 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:41.679 And yet politically there is always a group of folks 0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:44.040 who are trying to make the case that no, no, no, no, 0:11:43.920 --> 0:11:47.480 no no no, it's not our side that produces violence, 0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:51.240 it's their side that produces violence. And there's this wilful 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:55.960 ignorance or excuse making when it doesn't quite fit a 0:11:56.080 --> 0:12:02.400 narrative that someone hopes exists. And the fact is neither 0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:06.800 party and no ideology has a monopoly on crazy, and 0:12:06.920 --> 0:12:11.559 neither party nor ideology has a monopoly on violence. Sadly, 0:12:11.600 --> 0:12:13.440 I wish I wish it were true. Then we could 0:12:13.480 --> 0:12:15.720 easily get rid of it. Right if we knew it 0:12:15.760 --> 0:12:18.079 was only the part of one party, it would be gone. 0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:21.320 But that does not exist. But this level of what 0:12:21.400 --> 0:12:28.760 about ism because over time it eats away at it 0:12:28.920 --> 0:12:33.439 just eats away at our credibility. It erodes trust more 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:37.439 and more because certainly, you know, we never go back. 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:42.240 So take behavior with the military, Donald Trump's decision to 0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:49.600 politicize it without any essentially without any sort of criticism. 0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:51.959 I mean, nobody serious is criticizing him on the right, 0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:55.959 military leaders aren't. Everybody is just staling science. There's a 0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:58.160 little bit of a silence of fear that's out there. 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:01.840 I run into it plain. I'll have people whisper to me, 0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:04.400 I really don't like what he's doing with Harvard, or 0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:06.360 I really don't like what he's doing with the military. 0:13:06.440 --> 0:13:08.240 I really don't like what he's doing with the government. 0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:11.080 But I can't say anything or I'll lose my job. 0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:13.360 Or I can't say anything or I'll lose this client. 0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:15.840 I can't say anything because I don't want funding to 0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:19.200 be cut off from my institution. So this culture of 0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:22.640 fear that's out there is very real, and you know, 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:27.679 this is where where trust in political leadership continues to erode. 0:13:28.000 --> 0:13:31.720 You know, we don't have much trust in either side 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:34.200 of the aisle, and it's because both sides of the 0:13:34.200 --> 0:13:38.120 aisle are earning that distrust every day with their behavior, 0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:41.600 with this idea that we've got to make sure we 0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:44.600 look good by tearing down the other side, rather than 0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:47.880 simply why don't you govern well and let people decide 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:51.319 that you're doing a good job. Donald Trump has trouble 0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:54.000 handling that because right now things aren't going well for 0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:57.600 him right on merits, but he needs to feel like 0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:00.480 they're going well. So it becomes this attempt to tear 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:02.480 down the left and tear down the other side. And 0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:07.440 certainly Joe Biden's legacy is in tatters because of what 0:14:07.559 --> 0:14:10.400 Joe Biden did, and Donald Trump is certainly reveling in 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:12.720 it and using it as a way to essentially protect 0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:17.200 himself politically at this point. But it just struck me 0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:19.680 that all of these things, the corruption and plain sight, 0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:22.640 which the Speaker of the House says, oh, but it's 0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:27.560 in plain sight, so it's okay. Okay, just imagine, So basically, 0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:31.360 if I shop lift and wave to the camera, it's okay. 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:34.720 But if I shop lift and quietly put it in 0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:37.960 a knapsack and so the camera doesn't see it, then 0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:41.320 I've committed a crime. That's exactly what the Speaker of 0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:44.960 the House is claiming with this meme coin nonsense. So 0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:48.560 it's just this, Look what about is them is a 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:54.440 disease that strikes a lot of people in this information ecosystem, 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:58.360 but it is a really deadly virus these days on 0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:02.680 the right. Donald trump behavior with the mean coins, Donald 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:06.560 Trump's behavior at West Point again, just you know, we've 0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:09.360 seen the outrage that took place on the right when 0:15:09.360 --> 0:15:13.560 a Democrat behaved ten percent similarly as the way Donald 0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:16.840 Trump is has behaved over the weekend in various ways. 0:15:16.960 --> 0:15:20.480 And again, I know we're numb, right, there's a numbness 0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:23.320 to it on one hand. Right, I've got some friends 0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:25.320 in Europe who have said to me, how come you 0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:27.560 guys aren't in the streets, And I'm like, well, that 0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:30.360 was the first Trump term. There's a little less energy 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:34.160 for that this time. So there's a little bit of that, 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:36.760 but I also think it goes back to the fear 0:15:36.800 --> 0:15:39.720 issue that I was telling you about, where there is 0:15:40.040 --> 0:15:44.240 plenty of people who are very uncomfortable with the President's behavior, 0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:47.640 particularly how he's self enriching. I mean this, I do 0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:51.080 think what is going and what tears down every political movement, 0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:54.440 every political movement comes to an end because of corruption. 0:15:55.640 --> 0:15:57.920 And I will tell you the behavior of the Trump 0:15:58.000 --> 0:16:01.160 organization with crypto, and I've said it before, is going 0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:06.440 to be what eats and destroys this mag of movement eventually. 0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:08.920 Maybe it's not this year, maybe it's not next year, 0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:12.280 but it is. This is going to eat away. This 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:17.960 is a cancer inside this movement, Crypto and the Trump 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:22.640 family's addiction to self enrichment using crypto here, I'm telling 0:16:22.680 --> 0:16:26.560 you it is going to be what brings them down. 0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:31.000 And I am surprised at how many people continue to 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:32.960 want to go along for that ride. All right, let 0:16:32.960 --> 0:16:34.960 me do a little update on a little campaign. Twenty 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:38.120 twenty six is a fun poll making the rounds in 0:16:38.160 --> 0:16:40.240 New York City, and that's the key here. It's a 0:16:41.000 --> 0:16:43.720 It's a poll of New York City Democrats with an 0:16:43.720 --> 0:16:46.960 oversampling of Jewish voters. When I say oversampling, it doesn't 0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:49.120 mean they add it. It just has a larger sample of 0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:51.080 Jewish voters to get a better sense of how Jewish 0:16:51.120 --> 0:16:54.280 Democrats would vote. And there was two statewide matchups that 0:16:54.320 --> 0:16:57.960 were put together, Kathy Holkle the incoming governor, Richie Torres, 0:16:58.000 --> 0:17:01.080 the congressman on a gubernatorial prime memory and then Chuck 0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:06.760 Schumer and Alexandria Casio Cortez AOC in a hypothetical Democratic 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:09.200 primary for Senate. Now that race wouldn't be till twenty 0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:11.159 twenty eight, and as many of you have heard me 0:17:11.200 --> 0:17:13.359 say before, I'll be shocked of schumer siks reelection. I 0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:15.879 don't think he's running, but to get a sense of 0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:17.840 what Democrats think of Chuck Schumer these days, or at 0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:21.080 least New York City Democrats, it's useful to know he's 0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:24.359 getting clobbered in a hypothetical matchup with AOC again New 0:17:24.440 --> 0:17:27.640 York City Democrats in this poll fifty four to thirty three. 0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:30.800 The poll was sponsored by the Jewish Voters Action Network, 0:17:30.800 --> 0:17:34.720 conducted by be It, taxed by Honen Strategy Group. It's 0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:38.080 not my favorite methodology. I'm not going to lie to you. 0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:41.000 These days, but I'm also actually, I'm never going to 0:17:41.080 --> 0:17:43.480 lie to you, not just these days. I always hate 0:17:43.480 --> 0:17:46.119 that expression because it implies, you know, well, let me 0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:48.280 you know, honestly, let me tell you no what I 0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:50.760 merely mean. You're like you're not being honest before. But anyway, 0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:54.479 but I digress. But a double digit lead twenty one 0:17:54.520 --> 0:17:57.400 point lead among New York City Democrats for AOC over Schumer. 0:17:58.000 --> 0:18:02.760 Among Jewish voters, Schumerling led four three. It was thirty 0:18:02.760 --> 0:18:05.399 eight thirty seven. And a hypothetical Democratic primary among New 0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:08.120 York City Democratic voters between Kathy hokl the incombent governor, 0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:11.160 Richie Torres, the congressman who we just interviewed last week 0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:13.320 and who told us that he was very focused on 0:18:13.400 --> 0:18:16.399 running for governor. And again, this is a subsample of 0:18:16.440 --> 0:18:19.680 a subsample. Right, it's New York City Democratic voters obviously 0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:22.720 the largest chunk of voters in a Democratic primary. But 0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:25.760 you know, I would argue Kathy Holckle's strength is never 0:18:25.840 --> 0:18:27.399 going to be New York City. If she's even in 0:18:27.400 --> 0:18:31.360 New York City, she will win a primary if she's 0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:34.440 able to do. You know, she is from Western New York, 0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:36.800 so she should have a better base there, and a 0:18:36.840 --> 0:18:40.639 New York City Democrat usually struggles the further up the 0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:46.280 state you go. But what does this tell you? And 0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:48.840 I go back to something that I truly believe. I 0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:52.320 think being an incumbent is going to be the worst 0:18:52.400 --> 0:18:55.159 thing on the ballot in twenty twenty six. If you're 0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:59.320 incumbent Republican or an incumbent Democrat. That basically incumbent bad 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:02.439 all right. Then the next question is which party's brand 0:19:02.480 --> 0:19:04.720 is going to be seen as the more negative brand? 0:19:04.720 --> 0:19:07.200 I think in a midterm is probably depending on where 0:19:07.240 --> 0:19:09.400 we are right It's going to depend on whether you're 0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:12.000 talking a gubernatorial race where maybe one party's held the 0:19:12.080 --> 0:19:14.400 office for quite some time. That means the other party 0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:16.960 might be fired up. But overall, nationally, it's probably going 0:19:17.000 --> 0:19:19.320 to be slightly easier to be a Democrat than Republican 0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:22.880 because these Republican policies are not very popular right now. 0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:26.120 And this one big beautiful bill, I don't see anything 0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:30.560 in there that's going to help Republicans short term politically. 0:19:30.960 --> 0:19:33.920 Right If the bill works, it might help them long term, 0:19:34.040 --> 0:19:36.320 but short term I don't see where they get help 0:19:36.359 --> 0:19:42.320 out of this. So to me, this poll indicates incumbents 0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:46.560 are unpopular, Hopell not doing well, Chuck Schumer not doing well, 0:19:47.080 --> 0:19:51.120 So there is going to be this pining for change. 0:19:51.640 --> 0:19:54.720 And I think the question is how big, how many 0:19:54.760 --> 0:19:57.639 of these democratic primaries? How messy are these going to be? 0:19:58.000 --> 0:19:59.320 And what kind of fights are they going to be? 0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:00.719 Are they going to be out of logical? Are they 0:20:00.720 --> 0:20:04.880 going to be generational? Because those aren't the same thing, 0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:08.320 you know, and there are some progressives who want to 0:20:08.400 --> 0:20:12.399 hide the progressive part behind generational change, right and I 0:20:12.440 --> 0:20:15.960 think that that's you know, it's probably smart politics because 0:20:15.960 --> 0:20:19.480 many progressive policies are not popular right now with swing voters. 0:20:21.119 --> 0:20:21.439 But I. 0:20:23.000 --> 0:20:25.760 Get sort of, hey, use generational change and recruit more 0:20:25.800 --> 0:20:29.600 progressive voters. Could I buy the argument more that you 0:20:29.600 --> 0:20:32.760 need a younger generation who knows how to communicate with 0:20:32.840 --> 0:20:36.679 today's swing voters versus because I think today's swing voters 0:20:36.720 --> 0:20:38.960 need a different type of communicating too than the swing 0:20:39.040 --> 0:20:41.160 voters of just ten years ago or fifteen years ago. 0:20:41.640 --> 0:20:43.720 So I do think that Pole tells us a little 0:20:43.720 --> 0:20:48.640 bit a little bit about that. Again, it should stir 0:20:48.760 --> 0:20:51.639 the pots of more and I'm sure it is only 0:20:51.640 --> 0:20:56.960 going to encourage, not discourage Richie Torres to keep going 0:20:57.000 --> 0:20:59.440 on that one other thing worth noting big New York 0:20:59.440 --> 0:21:02.240 Times story of the weekend that indicates Democrats are still 0:21:02.240 --> 0:21:05.080 in the wilderness, and noting everything that I've been telling 0:21:05.160 --> 0:21:08.320 you about. Well, look, I do think if you read 0:21:08.359 --> 0:21:12.040 that New York Times piece, this conversation with Roychisha, I 0:21:12.080 --> 0:21:14.040 think is going to be more enlightening than what you 0:21:14.119 --> 0:21:17.040 got in the Times, and more explanatory and give you 0:21:17.080 --> 0:21:20.359 a better idea of where the future of the party lies. 0:21:20.400 --> 0:21:23.320 Because the future does not lie in Washington. The future 0:21:23.359 --> 0:21:26.080 of the party is likely lies in one of two 0:21:26.160 --> 0:21:31.160 categories of folks, either a current governor or somebody that's 0:21:31.200 --> 0:21:34.240 about to win a governor's race. Maybe it's in twenty 0:21:34.240 --> 0:21:39.080 twenty five, like Cheryl Abigail Spamberger. Maybe it's in twenty 0:21:39.119 --> 0:21:41.720 twenty six, and maybe it's somebody we haven't mentioned yet 0:21:41.800 --> 0:21:45.480 who comes out of nowhere to meet the moment. But 0:21:45.560 --> 0:21:48.680 I do think that you're more likely to see, if 0:21:48.800 --> 0:21:52.880 change is successful for the Democrats, that change will come 0:21:52.920 --> 0:21:57.080 from the states outside of Washington. All Right, with that, 0:21:58.080 --> 0:22:00.000 let's sneak in a break and when we come back 0:22:00.160 --> 0:22:03.399 to Shera on the blueprint for how Democrats get their 0:22:03.440 --> 0:22:12.679 mojo back, and joining me now is the co author 0:22:13.000 --> 0:22:16.680 of one of the most prescient books that you could 0:22:16.680 --> 0:22:18.600 have read to understand the twenty four election had you 0:22:18.600 --> 0:22:22.320 read it before the twenty twenty four election. The book 0:22:22.359 --> 0:22:24.280 is called Where Have All the Democrats Gone? Written by 0:22:24.320 --> 0:22:27.360 John Judas and Roy to Shera and Roy to Shia 0:22:27.760 --> 0:22:30.359 is joining me now. This is not the first time 0:22:30.440 --> 0:22:34.560 I've interviewed him on this topic, but we are in 0:22:34.640 --> 0:22:39.760 the middle of, I think the reckoning that Roy you 0:22:39.800 --> 0:22:44.000 were trying to warn Democrats that was coming, and now 0:22:44.080 --> 0:22:48.440 there are elected Democrats realizing, hey, maybe that guy was right. 0:22:49.000 --> 0:22:51.280 Maybe we've got a realignment going on, and maybe we 0:22:51.320 --> 0:22:55.480 need to figure out who the heck the Democratic coalition 0:22:55.720 --> 0:22:59.560 is these days? Are you ready to say I told. 0:22:59.440 --> 0:23:01.400 You sold just so. 0:23:04.320 --> 0:23:08.200 Unlessen you know I've said this and I've shared this 0:23:08.480 --> 0:23:10.919 with you earlier, and I've actually shared your book with 0:23:10.960 --> 0:23:14.760 others when I tell people the curriculum for a class 0:23:14.800 --> 0:23:17.480 I teach called how Washington Works, and your book is 0:23:17.960 --> 0:23:21.119 one that I believe should be mandatory reading these days 0:23:22.000 --> 0:23:24.760