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Speaker 1: Hello there. I hope you are enjoying your Memorial Day weekend,

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Speaker 1: and we are uploading right now on actual on the

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Speaker 1: actual Memorial Day, or the day that we are honoring

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Speaker 1: those we've lost in service to this country. On Memorial Day.

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Speaker 1: There's always this debate. You don't celebrate Memorial Day, you

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Speaker 1: honor Memorial Day. I'm not going to get into the

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Speaker 1: nuances of language here. I think sometimes social media gets

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Speaker 1: up in arms over that. I have a fascinating guest today,

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Speaker 1: Roy to Shia. He is one half of the authorship

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Speaker 1: of a book that, had you read it before November

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, you would have known in advance exactly

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Speaker 1: how Kamala Harris was going to lose his presidential race.

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Speaker 1: Roy To Shara is a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute,

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Speaker 1: and along with John Judas, he wrote a book that

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Speaker 1: came out I Believe the Fall of twenty three Spring

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Speaker 1: of twenty four, with the title where have all the

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Speaker 1: Democrats Gone? And essentially every trend line that came to

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Speaker 1: fruition in November of twenty twenty four, he had already

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Speaker 1: identified in this book. And as I said, and many

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Speaker 1: of you know this, I've used this book, among three

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Speaker 1: or four others, as a teaching text for a class

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Speaker 1: that I teach on behalf of USC called How Washington Works.

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Speaker 1: And as one of my students wrote, boy, I wish

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Speaker 1: I had read this book before the election, and I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't have been so surprised by the result. The point is,

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Speaker 1: it's an excellent book, definitely worth your time if you're

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Speaker 1: trying to figure out what's going on inside the two parties,

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Speaker 1: And frankly, is the two party system going to be

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Speaker 1: able to hold up? And if we're stuck here with

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Speaker 1: the two party system, what are the Democrats going to

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Speaker 1: do to respond to what we've seen on the right.

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Speaker 1: And I do think when you listen to the conversation

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Speaker 1: that Roy tischera does provide a path for Democrats to

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Speaker 1: become a majority party again and a majority governing party again.

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Speaker 1: But they've got a lot of work to do. And

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Speaker 1: I think you will hear in the tone of the

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Speaker 1: conversation that we have we're both a little bit skeptical

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Speaker 1: that the Democrats have lost enough. And I think that's

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Speaker 1: the real question. Have they lost enough to make the

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Speaker 1: changes necessary to become a majority party again? Right in

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Speaker 1: nineteen eighty eight. Democrats lost the presidential race, with George H. W.

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Speaker 1: Bush getting over four hundred electoral votes. It was a

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Speaker 1: race that they were supposed to win. It really suddenly

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Speaker 1: made the party rethink things. When you lose by essentially

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Speaker 1: a percentage point a couple hundred thousand total total votes

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Speaker 1: and a handful of states could have flip the outcome,

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Speaker 1: do you think you have to make major changes or

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Speaker 1: minor changes? You know, I remember a conversation and I've

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Speaker 1: for those of you have been longtime listeners of me,

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Speaker 1: know this anecdote. Well, but when I did a when

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Speaker 1: I did a deep dive into what happened? Why is

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Speaker 1: Wisconsin the most polarized state in the country? Like why

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Speaker 1: did Wisconsin become more polarized than anything else? And essentially,

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Speaker 1: you know, our thesis was a Wisconsin is ground zero,

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Speaker 1: patient zero for polarization, which really began at the start

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Speaker 1: of the twenty first century and really foreshadowed everything we've

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Speaker 1: seen nationally. And Tommy Thompson, the longtime Republican governor during

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Speaker 1: the last part of the twentieth century there in Wisconsin,

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Speaker 1: I had him and Jim Doyle, the last two term

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Speaker 1: Democratic governor before Tony Evers got in there and both

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Speaker 1: of them remarked, But it was Tommy Thompson who said,

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Speaker 1: you know, until one of the two parties loses by

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Speaker 1: more than a point in any given election, are you

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Speaker 1: going to have either party do any soul searching? Right

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Speaker 1: when you have a path to fifty percent plus one

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Speaker 1: to win, you don't think about you know, maybe we

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Speaker 1: have some long term issues here, long term issues there,

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Speaker 1: but if you still think of a path to victory,

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Speaker 1: you don't work about it. It's like a Frankly. It's

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Speaker 1: like if you know Frankly to pick on Wisconsin, it's

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Speaker 1: like the Milwaukee Bucks with Yannis. Right, if you think

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Speaker 1: having Yannis plus you know, a semi healthy Dame Lillard

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Speaker 1: can at least get you to be competitive and maybe

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Speaker 1: you have a chance to make the Eastern Conference finals.

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Speaker 1: Maybe you don't do the teardown. Right, But if you

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Speaker 1: you know, if you're if you're the if you're if

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Speaker 1: you're the Charlotte Hornets or you're the Miami Heat, you

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Speaker 1: think we're not even getting to the Eastern Conference Finals,

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Speaker 1: We're going to do a whole teardown. And I think

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Speaker 1: that's the conversation Democrats are still in They're not in

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Speaker 1: a teardown mindset yet, right, They're still in this in

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Speaker 1: this place where I think you still have a good

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Speaker 1: chunk of the party that things just tinkering is going

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Speaker 1: to do it. Oh, if they just come up with

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Speaker 1: a better message with Latino voters, they will be able

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Speaker 1: to fix their problems in the Southwest. Or if they

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Speaker 1: just come up with a better message for working class

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Speaker 1: voters and Michigan, then maybe they improve things in an

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Speaker 1: Ohio or in Iowa versus what happened after eighty eight

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Speaker 1: when it was a slaughter And you realize, as I

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Speaker 1: pointed out before that the combination of McGovern Carter, Mondale

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Speaker 1: and Ducaccus and a message of massive weakness inside the

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party that they may have had good ideas, but

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Speaker 1: they had weak leadership. And Bill Clinton came along and

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Speaker 1: just came up with a new theory of the case,

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Speaker 1: but was a bit more but led essentially with a

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Speaker 1: bit more strength in how to do it. And I

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Speaker 1: think that that's the question. I have our Democrats in

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Speaker 1: that mode or is there such a desperation to win

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Speaker 1: they'll take any answer. Well, this we're going to find

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Speaker 1: out in a couple of years. But before we get

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Speaker 1: to the conversation with Gorod to share, I do you

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Speaker 1: want to back up a little thing on the weekend's events,

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Speaker 1: because there was some Look, let's talk about what it is,

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Speaker 1: which is, if the roles were reversed. What would the

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Speaker 1: level of conversation and criticism be if Joe Biden and

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Speaker 1: Hunter Biden were trying to make money off of the presidency.

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Speaker 1: Oh did they do that? What was the level of conversation?

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Speaker 1: And I'm struck by something the Speaker of the House,

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Speaker 1: Mike Johnson said to my friend Jake Tapper on CNN

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Speaker 1: over the weekend. Jake Tapper was asking him about the

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Speaker 1: mean coin, the infamous meme coin dinner where basically, if

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Speaker 1: you bought this phony meme coin basically the baseball cards

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Speaker 1: of crypto, right, it's not worth a thing, these Trump

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Speaker 1: meme coins. It's like it's like selling something from the

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Speaker 1: Franklin Mint, if you will. But if you bought enough

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Speaker 1: of them, you got to have dinner with him. Mike

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Speaker 1: Johnson actually said, well, the Bidens were doing it, we're

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Speaker 1: doing it undercover. Donald Trump does it out in the

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Speaker 1: open for everybody to see, and therefore it's Okay, so

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Speaker 1: just stop and think about that rationale. The Speaker of

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Speaker 1: the House said, the reason he's not alarmed by Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump profiting off the presidency versus the amount of effort

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Speaker 1: he did to investigate whether Hunter Biden was essentially profiting

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Speaker 1: off the Biden presidency. The big distinction for him is

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Speaker 1: Biden tried to hide it. Trump doesn't hide it. So

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Speaker 1: didn't ask yourself, where are we headed as a society?

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Speaker 1: Where are we headed in our politics? If basically one

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Speaker 1: political party is completely okay with this corruptible practice, and

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Speaker 1: I say it's corruptible. I don't want to assume corruption

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Speaker 1: has happened yet, but it is easy to corrupt. It

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Speaker 1: is obvious. It is, you know, sort of peeing on

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Speaker 1: your leg and telling you it's reigning. Kind of obvious

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Speaker 1: at this point. And yet that's the rationale, that's the defense.

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Speaker 1: And you want to talk about why I keep quoting

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Speaker 1: Bob Dole from nineteen ninety six all the time, which

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Speaker 1: was where's the outrage? And I think on this one,

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Speaker 1: where's the outrage? And there is none? And there's and

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Speaker 1: now the Republican Party is putting itself in a position

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Speaker 1: where they're just going to be laughed anytime, laughed out

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Speaker 1: of the room, anytime they attempt to criticize anybody else

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Speaker 1: on corruption issues. The silence, the ignoring of what Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump is doing with this presidency is something else. Now,

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Speaker 1: let's take his commencement address at West Point, his decision

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Speaker 1: to politicize the address, his decision to wear a maga hat.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to take you back into the into the

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Speaker 1: way back machine to go back. It's Barack Obama who

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Speaker 1: was president. And let me just remind you of certain

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Speaker 1: controversies that took place when Barack Obama did things with

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Speaker 1: the military, some commencement addresses, you know, saluting the military.

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Speaker 1: There was a huge outrage over what Sarah Palin deemed

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Speaker 1: the latte salute, that how did Barack Obama hold a

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Speaker 1: latte while he saluted the Marines as he was i

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Speaker 1: think going on to Marine one. And it became this

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Speaker 1: sort of obsession with sort of whatever you want, whatever

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Speaker 1: you want to call you know, not journalists, not conservative journalists,

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Speaker 1: but just sort of conservative influencer, wanta bees, pundits, whatever

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Speaker 1: Fox News calls itself these days, because it's not a

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Speaker 1: journalistic enterprise, but it's just sort of a vehicle for

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Speaker 1: grievance and outrage. And this was a huge part of

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Speaker 1: their outrage was did Barack Obama do enough of a salute?

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Speaker 1: And I remember another time was a salute wasn't stiff enough.

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Speaker 1: But I can't imagine the level of outrage. Had Barack

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Speaker 1: Obama come up with an ofa hat and did an

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Speaker 1: Obama for America and and took a speech and used

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Speaker 1: his commencement speech to just trash his predecessor or predecessors

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Speaker 1: right the most sacred of things. And it's really sort

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Speaker 1: of an irrational you know, he he doesn't acknowledge the

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Speaker 1: fact that these kids, these kids went to West Point

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Speaker 1: the majority of the time, their commander in chief was

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden. It didn't seem to rot the place so

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Speaker 1: much that West Point still exists, that West Point was

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Speaker 1: still teaching and graduating high performing cadets. So it is

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Speaker 1: it was just, you know, I know, we're no longer astonished.

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Speaker 1: And I know what about ism is a disease that

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Speaker 1: that is all over the place, particularly on the right,

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Speaker 1: but it's it's there on the left.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: I'll give you another example. There's a there's a huge

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Speaker 1: if you if you follow social media. Over the weekend,

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Speaker 1: there's this, you know, a lot of folks on the

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Speaker 1: right trying to say, well, left wing ideology creates more

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Speaker 1: violent actors then right wing ideology. And this one is

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Speaker 1: in direct reference to the terrace that gunned down the

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Speaker 1: Israeli diplomats last week in Washington, DC. And I see

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Speaker 1: this on the left as well. Sometimes when there's a

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Speaker 1: violent incident and it's a right winger that does it,

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Speaker 1: whether it was the shooting in Kenosha or the shooting

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Speaker 1: the Tree of Life synagogue. So if we want to

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Speaker 1: make it directly sort of anti semiticaid on the right,

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Speaker 1: anti semiticiated on the left. Last time I checked is

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Speaker 1: you have violent crazy people that exist on the left,

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Speaker 1: and you have violent crazy people that exist on the right.

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Speaker 1: And yet politically there is always a group of folks

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Speaker 1: who are trying to make the case that no, no, no, no,

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Speaker 1: no no no, it's not our side that produces violence,

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Speaker 1: it's their side that produces violence. And there's this wilful

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Speaker 1: ignorance or excuse making when it doesn't quite fit a

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Speaker 1: narrative that someone hopes exists. And the fact is neither

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Speaker 1: party and no ideology has a monopoly on crazy, and

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Speaker 1: neither party nor ideology has a monopoly on violence. Sadly,

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Speaker 1: I wish I wish it were true. Then we could

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Speaker 1: easily get rid of it. Right if we knew it

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Speaker 1: was only the part of one party, it would be gone.

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Speaker 1: But that does not exist. But this level of what

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Speaker 1: about ism because over time it eats away at it

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Speaker 1: just eats away at our credibility. It erodes trust more

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Speaker 1: and more because certainly, you know, we never go back.

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Speaker 1: So take behavior with the military, Donald Trump's decision to

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Speaker 1: politicize it without any essentially without any sort of criticism.

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Speaker 1: I mean, nobody serious is criticizing him on the right,

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Speaker 1: military leaders aren't. Everybody is just staling science. There's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a silence of fear that's out there.

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Speaker 1: I run into it plain. I'll have people whisper to me,

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Speaker 1: I really don't like what he's doing with Harvard, or

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Speaker 1: I really don't like what he's doing with the military.

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Speaker 1: I really don't like what he's doing with the government.

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Speaker 1: But I can't say anything or I'll lose my job.

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Speaker 1: Or I can't say anything or I'll lose this client.

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Speaker 1: I can't say anything because I don't want funding to

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Speaker 1: be cut off from my institution. So this culture of

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Speaker 1: fear that's out there is very real, and you know,

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Speaker 1: this is where where trust in political leadership continues to erode.

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Speaker 1: You know, we don't have much trust in either side

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Speaker 1: of the aisle, and it's because both sides of the

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Speaker 1: aisle are earning that distrust every day with their behavior,

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Speaker 1: with this idea that we've got to make sure we

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Speaker 1: look good by tearing down the other side, rather than

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Speaker 1: simply why don't you govern well and let people decide

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Speaker 1: that you're doing a good job. Donald Trump has trouble

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Speaker 1: handling that because right now things aren't going well for

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Speaker 1: him right on merits, but he needs to feel like

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Speaker 1: they're going well. So it becomes this attempt to tear

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Speaker 1: down the left and tear down the other side. And

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Speaker 1: certainly Joe Biden's legacy is in tatters because of what

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden did, and Donald Trump is certainly reveling in

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Speaker 1: it and using it as a way to essentially protect

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Speaker 1: himself politically at this point. But it just struck me

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Speaker 1: that all of these things, the corruption and plain sight,

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Speaker 1: which the Speaker of the House says, oh, but it's

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Speaker 1: in plain sight, so it's okay. Okay, just imagine, So basically,

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Speaker 1: if I shop lift and wave to the camera, it's okay.

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Speaker 1: But if I shop lift and quietly put it in

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Speaker 1: a knapsack and so the camera doesn't see it, then

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Speaker 1: I've committed a crime. That's exactly what the Speaker of

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Speaker 1: the House is claiming with this meme coin nonsense. So

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Speaker 1: it's just this, Look what about is them is a

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Speaker 1: disease that strikes a lot of people in this information ecosystem,

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Speaker 1: but it is a really deadly virus these days on

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Speaker 1: the right. Donald trump behavior with the mean coins, Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump's behavior at West Point again, just you know, we've

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Speaker 1: seen the outrage that took place on the right when

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Speaker 1: a Democrat behaved ten percent similarly as the way Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump is has behaved over the weekend in various ways.

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Speaker 1: And again, I know we're numb, right, there's a numbness

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Speaker 1: to it on one hand. Right, I've got some friends

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Speaker 1: in Europe who have said to me, how come you

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Speaker 1: guys aren't in the streets, And I'm like, well, that

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Speaker 1: was the first Trump term. There's a little less energy

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Speaker 1: for that this time. So there's a little bit of that,

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Speaker 1: but I also think it goes back to the fear

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Speaker 1: issue that I was telling you about, where there is

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Speaker 1: plenty of people who are very uncomfortable with the President's behavior,

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Speaker 1: particularly how he's self enriching. I mean this, I do

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Speaker 1: think what is going and what tears down every political movement,

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Speaker 1: every political movement comes to an end because of corruption.

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Speaker 1: And I will tell you the behavior of the Trump

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Speaker 1: organization with crypto, and I've said it before, is going

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Speaker 1: to be what eats and destroys this mag of movement eventually.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it's not this year, maybe it's not next year,

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Speaker 1: but it is. This is going to eat away. This

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Speaker 1: is a cancer inside this movement, Crypto and the Trump

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Speaker 1: family's addiction to self enrichment using crypto here, I'm telling

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Speaker 1: you it is going to be what brings them down.

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Speaker 1: And I am surprised at how many people continue to

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Speaker 1: want to go along for that ride. All right, let

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Speaker 1: me do a little update on a little campaign. Twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six is a fun poll making the rounds in

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Speaker 1: New York City, and that's the key here. It's a

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Speaker 1: It's a poll of New York City Democrats with an

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Speaker 1: oversampling of Jewish voters. When I say oversampling, it doesn't

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Speaker 1: mean they add it. It just has a larger sample of

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Speaker 1: Jewish voters to get a better sense of how Jewish

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Speaker 1: Democrats would vote. And there was two statewide matchups that

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Speaker 1: were put together, Kathy Holkle the incoming governor, Richie Torres,

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Speaker 1: the congressman on a gubernatorial prime memory and then Chuck

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Speaker 1: Schumer and Alexandria Casio Cortez AOC in a hypothetical Democratic

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Speaker 1: primary for Senate. Now that race wouldn't be till twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty eight, and as many of you have heard me

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Speaker 1: say before, I'll be shocked of schumer siks reelection. I

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Speaker 1: don't think he's running, but to get a sense of

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Speaker 1: what Democrats think of Chuck Schumer these days, or at

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Speaker 1: least New York City Democrats, it's useful to know he's

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Speaker 1: getting clobbered in a hypothetical matchup with AOC again New

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Speaker 1: York City Democrats in this poll fifty four to thirty three.

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Speaker 1: The poll was sponsored by the Jewish Voters Action Network,

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Speaker 1: conducted by be It, taxed by Honen Strategy Group. It's

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Speaker 1: not my favorite methodology. I'm not going to lie to you.

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Speaker 1: These days, but I'm also actually, I'm never going to

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Speaker 1: lie to you, not just these days. I always hate

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Speaker 1: that expression because it implies, you know, well, let me

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Speaker 1: you know, honestly, let me tell you no what I

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Speaker 1: merely mean. You're like you're not being honest before. But anyway,

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Speaker 1: but I digress. But a double digit lead twenty one

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Speaker 1: point lead among New York City Democrats for AOC over Schumer.

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Speaker 1: Among Jewish voters, Schumerling led four three. It was thirty

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Speaker 1: eight thirty seven. And a hypothetical Democratic primary among New

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Speaker 1: York City Democratic voters between Kathy hokl the incombent governor,

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Speaker 1: Richie Torres, the congressman who we just interviewed last week

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Speaker 1: and who told us that he was very focused on

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Speaker 1: running for governor. And again, this is a subsample of

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Speaker 1: a subsample. Right, it's New York City Democratic voters obviously

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Speaker 1: the largest chunk of voters in a Democratic primary. But

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Speaker 1: you know, I would argue Kathy Holckle's strength is never

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Speaker 1: going to be New York City. If she's even in

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Speaker 1: New York City, she will win a primary if she's

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Speaker 1: able to do. You know, she is from Western New York,

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Speaker 1: so she should have a better base there, and a

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Speaker 1: New York City Democrat usually struggles the further up the

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Speaker 1: state you go. But what does this tell you? And

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Speaker 1: I go back to something that I truly believe. I

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Speaker 1: think being an incumbent is going to be the worst

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Speaker 1: thing on the ballot in twenty twenty six. If you're

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Speaker 1: incumbent Republican or an incumbent Democrat. That basically incumbent bad

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Speaker 1: all right. Then the next question is which party's brand

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Speaker 1: is going to be seen as the more negative brand?

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Speaker 1: I think in a midterm is probably depending on where

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Speaker 1: we are right It's going to depend on whether you're

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Speaker 1: talking a gubernatorial race where maybe one party's held the

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Speaker 1: office for quite some time. That means the other party

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Speaker 1: might be fired up. But overall, nationally, it's probably going

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Speaker 1: to be slightly easier to be a Democrat than Republican

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Speaker 1: because these Republican policies are not very popular right now.

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Speaker 1: And this one big beautiful bill, I don't see anything

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Speaker 1: in there that's going to help Republicans short term politically.

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Speaker 1: Right If the bill works, it might help them long term,

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Speaker 1: but short term I don't see where they get help

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Speaker 1: out of this. So to me, this poll indicates incumbents

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Speaker 1: are unpopular, Hopell not doing well, Chuck Schumer not doing well,

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Speaker 1: So there is going to be this pining for change.

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Speaker 1: And I think the question is how big, how many

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Speaker 1: of these democratic primaries? How messy are these going to be?

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Speaker 1: And what kind of fights are they going to be?

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Speaker 1: Are they going to be out of logical? Are they

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Speaker 1: going to be generational? Because those aren't the same thing,

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Speaker 1: you know, and there are some progressives who want to

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Speaker 1: hide the progressive part behind generational change, right and I

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Speaker 1: think that that's you know, it's probably smart politics because

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Speaker 1: many progressive policies are not popular right now with swing voters.

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Speaker 2: But I.

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Speaker 1: Get sort of, hey, use generational change and recruit more

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Speaker 1: progressive voters. Could I buy the argument more that you

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Speaker 1: need a younger generation who knows how to communicate with

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Speaker 1: today's swing voters versus because I think today's swing voters

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Speaker 1: need a different type of communicating too than the swing

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Speaker 1: voters of just ten years ago or fifteen years ago.

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Speaker 1: So I do think that Pole tells us a little

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Speaker 1: bit a little bit about that. Again, it should stir

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Speaker 1: the pots of more and I'm sure it is only

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Speaker 1: going to encourage, not discourage Richie Torres to keep going

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Speaker 1: on that one other thing worth noting big New York

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Speaker 1: Times story of the weekend that indicates Democrats are still

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Speaker 1: in the wilderness, and noting everything that I've been telling

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Speaker 1: you about. Well, look, I do think if you read

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Speaker 1: that New York Times piece, this conversation with Roychisha, I

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Speaker 1: think is going to be more enlightening than what you

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Speaker 1: got in the Times, and more explanatory and give you

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Speaker 1: a better idea of where the future of the party lies.

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Speaker 1: Because the future does not lie in Washington. The future

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Speaker 1: of the party is likely lies in one of two

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Speaker 1: categories of folks, either a current governor or somebody that's

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Speaker 1: about to win a governor's race. Maybe it's in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five, like Cheryl Abigail Spamberger. Maybe it's in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six, and maybe it's somebody we haven't mentioned yet

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Speaker 1: who comes out of nowhere to meet the moment. But

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Speaker 1: I do think that you're more likely to see, if

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Speaker 1: change is successful for the Democrats, that change will come

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Speaker 1: from the states outside of Washington. All Right, with that,

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Speaker 1: let's sneak in a break and when we come back

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Speaker 1: to Shera on the blueprint for how Democrats get their

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Speaker 1: mojo back, and joining me now is the co author

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Speaker 1: of one of the most prescient books that you could

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Speaker 1: have read to understand the twenty four election had you

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Speaker 1: read it before the twenty twenty four election. The book

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Speaker 1: is called Where Have All the Democrats Gone? Written by

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Speaker 1: John Judas and Roy to Shera and Roy to Shia

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Speaker 1: is joining me now. This is not the first time

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Speaker 1: I've interviewed him on this topic, but we are in

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Speaker 1: the middle of, I think the reckoning that Roy you

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Speaker 1: were trying to warn Democrats that was coming, and now

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Speaker 1: there are elected Democrats realizing, hey, maybe that guy was right.

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Speaker 1: Maybe we've got a realignment going on, and maybe we

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Speaker 1: need to figure out who the heck the Democratic coalition

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Speaker 1: is these days? Are you ready to say I told.

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Speaker 2: You sold just so.

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Speaker 1: Unlessen you know I've said this and I've shared this

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Speaker 1: with you earlier, and I've actually shared your book with

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Speaker 1: others when I tell people the curriculum for a class

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Speaker 1: I teach called how Washington Works, and your book is

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Speaker 1: one that I believe should be mandatory reading these days

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Speaker 1: on trying to understand we're in the middle of a

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Speaker 1: political realignment and we have elections every two years that

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Speaker 1: make us think and we think that somehow there's finality

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Speaker 1: when the alignment could write I always love this the realignment.

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Speaker 1: It's not as if realignment has stopped. It's just we've

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Speaker 1: held an election. So where are we, in your mind,

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Speaker 1: in the middle of this realignment. I would argue it's

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Speaker 1: been I would argue this realignment started in nineteen ninety

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Speaker 1: following you know, and you started to see it began

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Speaker 1: with Buchanan's primary challenge to Bush, and we started to

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Speaker 1: see these things over time. But that would imply that

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Speaker 1: we've been in a twenty five year of political realignment.

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Speaker 1: Is that Is that a fair way to look at

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Speaker 1: this or not?

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Speaker 2: I think that's fair. I mean, obviously it's not a

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Speaker 2: continuous process. There's Pigson Valley, spikes, changes, not a straight

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Speaker 2: line even going upward right. It's not a smooth process.

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Speaker 2: But by and large, the last thirty years has seen well,

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Speaker 2: you could even take it back farther potentially the realignment

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Speaker 2: of the working class away from the Democratic Party and

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Speaker 2: toward the Republicans, and then a realignment of the college

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Speaker 2: educated and especially the educated affluent away from the Republicans

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Speaker 2: toward the Democrats, so they really kind of shifted bases

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Speaker 2: in an odd sort of way. There's a famous chart

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Speaker 2: from the twenty twenty four election. I forget the guy

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Speaker 2: who did it, but basically he looked at education and

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Speaker 2: income differentiation polarization between the parties and the coalition the

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Speaker 2: Democrats had in twenty twenty four bears the most relationship

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Speaker 2: to the dull coalition of nineteen ninety six in terms.

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00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 1: Of Wow, that's a great that's a fascinating.

431
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 2: Pretty wild huh that is?

432
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 1: Is it just when you look at I mean, I

433
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 1: could I always joke I live in Arlington County, and

434
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,119
Speaker 1: I say I live in the last Romney precinct, is

435
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 1: what I call it. Meaning there was a time where

436
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 1: there were Republican precincts, and in Arlington more than just

437
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 1: three or four, there were probably you know, twenty five

438
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,159
Speaker 1: or thirty in the nineties, and then you'd start to

439
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,199
Speaker 1: see it chip away. And I always say it was

440
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 1: literally Ken Kuchinelli was probably the Republican that finally chased

441
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 1: away the remaining Republicans. What is the precinct vote now, boy,

442
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:47,399
Speaker 1: I need to look at it the most recent, but

443
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:47,920
Speaker 1: it's in the.

444
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 2: Sixties yeah, I would got like two to one Democrat.

445
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:52,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's two to one. It's not quite a it's

446
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 1: not like the rest. It's still more Republican than the

447
00:25:55,800 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 1: county itself relatively, but yes it is. I will tell

448
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,879
Speaker 1: you this. I remember it was a Ralph Northam electorate,

449
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 1: not a Tom Perriello electorate, if you remember the Democratic

450
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:12,119
Speaker 1: primary for governor in the first from term. And so

451
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:16,919
Speaker 1: it is certainly that type of and I think it

452
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 1: gets to the heart actually of what the Democrats. You know,

453
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 1: in some ways they don't know. They they don't know

454
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:30,119
Speaker 1: where to atack right. If you look at this in

455
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:32,959
Speaker 1: sailing terms, do they need to shift their win towards

456
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 1: that center right, centerst coalition, that is, educated coalition that

457
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 1: is coming to them. Do they need to tack back

458
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 1: to working class? Obviously you go with where the most

459
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 1: votes are to be gained.

460
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 2: So what say you, Well, I think it's pretty clear

461
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:55,120
Speaker 2: that in raw political arithmetic terms, they need to tack

462
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 2: back toward the working class because it's not really a

463
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 2: viable strategy over the medium into long term to keep

464
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 2: losing working class voters and try to replace them with

465
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:06,959
Speaker 2: college educated voters, particularly when you're starting to lose. You know,

466
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 2: this has really been the case in the least colorless cycles.

467
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:13,440
Speaker 2: You're starting to lose non white working class voters, especially

468
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:17,119
Speaker 2: Hispanic working class voters, but also including black working class voters.

469
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 2: So the working class as a whole is just becoming

470
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 2: increasingly Republican. And since the working class out numbers the

471
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,879
Speaker 2: college educated something like depends on if you look at

472
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 2: eligible voters or actual voters, probably about two to one

473
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 2: and eligible maybe sixty forty in terms of people who

474
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 2: show up. And we know because of this strange evolution

475
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 2: of the two parties that the higher turnout election you have,

476
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 2: the worse it is for the Democrats because that's when

477
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:49,360
Speaker 2: the peripheral voters, who tend to be low information, working class,

478
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:51,919
Speaker 2: you know, more inclined, could blow it up than to

479
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 2: go with the institutions. These are all people through the

480
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 2: Republicans are more attractive. So there's another famous chart from

481
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 2: the twenty twenty four election is done by Blue Rose

482
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 2: Research that shows that if everybody had shown up, Trump

483
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 2: would have won by five points overall, said one and

484
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 2: a half points. But if only the people have voted

485
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two had showed up, Harris would have

486
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:17,360
Speaker 2: seletly worn. So this is like the world we live

487
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 2: in there.

488
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 1: Well, this explains Omaha mayor. This explains absolutely right what

489
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 1: we're seeing right now where Democrats appear to be overperforming

490
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 1: in every special election so far in twenty twenty or.

491
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 2: Like school boards, dog catcher, you name it, right, lower

492
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 2: the turnament, the better it is for the d's because

493
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 2: those activist educated voters who are there and every place

494
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 2: in the country really, but particularly in a you know,

495
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 2: like Omaha's a great example and almost not that liberal,

496
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 2: but you know who shows up for mayor's elections exactly

497
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 2: the kind of people who are going to vote straight Democratics.

498
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 2: So that and they don't know what to do about that, right,

499
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 2: because it's obviously kind of like a problem. You know, Hey,

500
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 2: where the party of the working class historically, and we're

501
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 2: sort of for the little guy, and you know, we

502
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 2: don't think of ourselves as representing the college educated and affluent,

503
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 2: but it kind of seems like those are the people

504
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 2: are most enthusiastic. But if we actually try to rectify

505
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 2: that pattern, what do we do? We'd have to like

506
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 2: basically depart from the preferences of the most activated members

507
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 2: of our new coalition who will absolutely you know, just

508
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 2: to take an Exampleaul of, please say, well, you know,

509
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 2: now that we've thought about it, we really don't think

510
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 2: biological boys belong in girls' sports, full stop, right to

511
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 2: the intense blowback. We've already seen some of that. Right.

512
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 2: So you can go down a list of things that

513
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 2: are making the Democrats less attracted to working class voters

514
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 2: in a sociocultural sense, and on every one of them.

515
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 2: It's going to be hard for Democrats to really, I mean,

516
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 2: Matty Iglazias had a nice sort of praise for this

517
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 2: the other day. Dog moderation, right, they realized, hey, we

518
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 2: need more working class voters. We should probably be a

519
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 2: little bit more moderate. So hey, I'm moderate, I'm for

520
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 2: the working class, you know, I'm we don't want to

521
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 2: be weak and woke and alyssa Slutkin's terminology, right, But

522
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 2: they don't change their positions. It's still exactly the same positions.

523
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 2: So really they're just trying to you know, people who

524
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 2: are like hip that are following things understand. Oh, I

525
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 2: guess that's what they mean when they say, you know,

526
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 2: I'm moderate, but the ordinary voter doesn't know that. All

527
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 2: they know is Democrats still send for X, Y and Z.

528
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 1: So that it's interesting, right the way I was just

529
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 1: listening to you say that, and I'm thinking of and

530
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 1: now I understand it only makes it clear why House

531
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 1: Republicans are having such a hard time writing legislation, because

532
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 1: you've got elected Republicans who, in their minds were elected

533
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 1: by one type of voter. But you have this sort

534
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 1: of this sort of you know, Josh Holly Go realizing

535
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 1: he knows who his voters are, now going, hey, I

536
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 1: can't we can't get rid of this government benefit. This

537
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 1: is our constituents, this is this is who makes up

538
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 1: my coalitions. Hands off, mad a kay baby, right, So

539
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 1: it is it is And yet you know, so it's

540
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,959
Speaker 1: funny to me both parties have this fragility to them

541
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 1: because they're both dealing with new right. Democrats are struggling

542
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 1: with trying they don't know how to how to talk

543
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 1: to working class, even though that was sort of the

544
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:27,719
Speaker 1: roots of the party. Meanwhile, the Republicans don't know how

545
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 1: to govern for them. Yet.

546
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 2: I think that's exactly right, and I think that's one

547
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 2: reason why that's, in a very abbreviated way, the thesis

548
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 2: of report I did with you A. Leavin my colleague

549
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 2: at AI we called politics for that learners, which is

550
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 2: basically how neither party wants to maybe isn't even capable

551
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 2: of forming a dominant majority coalition because they're so caught,

552
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 2: you know, betwixt in between in terms of new and

553
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,719
Speaker 2: old parts of their coalition, and they don't really have

554
00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 2: a strategy on how to change them, how to actually

555
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 2: grow their coalition ones they're actually in office. And what

556
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 2: Trump's doing is a perfect example of this. I mean,

557
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 2: he came into office with writing, you know, a lot

558
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 2: of popular sentiment that was in favor of some of

559
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 2: the things he said he stood for in terms of immigration,

560
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 2: or terms of the economy, in terms of the eye whatever.

561
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 2: I mean, in every single place, he's just gone a

562
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 2: lot farther than I mean, people believe the government bureaucrats,

563
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 2: a lot of them are you know, just throw him

564
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 2: over the side. But the way he did it was

565
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 2: like so scary to people that he probably on net

566
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 2: lost more people than he gained. And the whole tariffs

567
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 2: thing is like bizarre. People aren't opposed to the idea

568
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 2: we should have like tariffs on China, or we need

569
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 2: to reset the American global trading relationships. But the way

570
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 2: it's been proceeded is so arbitrary and so hard to

571
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 2: sort of sauce out what's really going on and figure

572
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 2: out what the effects are going to be on me,

573
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 2: the working class voter. That again, I think he's scaring

574
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 2: more people than he's he's waiting over. That's why add

575
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 2: one thing, Chuck, and that's why the one thing that

576
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 2: actually we shouldn't be surprised as approved ratings have gone down,

577
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 2: we should be surprised it's still forty six percent, right,

578
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 2: I mean, despite all this Michig gos, you know, Trump

579
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 2: still is, you know, remarkably like it bet I happened.

580
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 1: I wonder if because of our polarization, just there's low

581
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 1: you know, high floors and low ceilings right for these

582
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 1: days that.

583
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 2: They are and I think the floors are getting higher

584
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 2: in the ceilings to getting lower. I think that's part

585
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 2: of what it's about.

586
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 1: Right, So there definitely is. But you know, it's funny

587
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 1: about Trump two when you look at the polling, it

588
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 1: is what you're describing as I say, they're not upset

589
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 1: about the goals, are upset about the execution. Right. This

590
00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:49,719
Speaker 1: is a competency problem that he has not necessarily an

591
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 1: issue problem, because how do you know it, The Democratic

592
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 1: numbers haven't improved. If anything, they've gotten worse right the brand.

593
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 1: As far as what the country thinks of the Democrats,

594
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 1: it's not a seesaw. Right, we didn't. We're not seeing

595
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 1: a recovery the way you did in Trump One point

596
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 1: out right, Democratic numbers actually invest right.

597
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 2: By this time and the Trump's first term, he was

598
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 2: Democrats were in significantly difforshaking. But I think they were

599
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 2: leading on seven eight points on the junior or congressional

600
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,560
Speaker 2: and now it's about two points. So obviously things are

601
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 2: moving in their direction. But it's not this kind of

602
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:25,799
Speaker 2: rubber band snapping back.

603
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 1: It's not a seesaw. So you know, I wrote a

604
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 1: piece last week about I'm obsessed with what's happened with

605
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 1: the Tories in the UK. I mean, I know, I

606
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 1: know that we it. Look, I do believe if either

607
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 1: of the Dems or the Republicans, if we had, if

608
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 1: we had, if they didn't have the duopoly on ballot access,

609
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 1: I think one or both of these parties would have

610
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:55,719
Speaker 1: collapsed a while ago and be replaced by something else. Yeah,

611
00:34:57,200 --> 00:35:02,799
Speaker 1: I wonder if structurally because of the dominance of ballot access. Right.

612
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 1: For instance, I interviewed Rob sand who's running for governor

613
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 1: of Iowa, and I asked, why are you running as

614
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:10,320
Speaker 1: a Democrat, And he says, because there's no viable option

615
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 1: if you're not going to run as a Republican. He said,

616
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 1: you can't. It's harder to get on the ballot as

617
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 1: an independent. It's you can't vote in primaries that way.

618
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:20,400
Speaker 1: You know. He didn't sit here and say because I'm

619
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 1: a Democrat, Okay, he was the Democratic right, No, he

620
00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:26,400
Speaker 1: didn't do that. He was basically saying, yeah, I have

621
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 1: no other choice. I wish there were another choice. How

622
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:36,359
Speaker 1: fragile do you think these parties are? And I mean

623
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 1: because I'm I'm looking at you know, I sit here.

624
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:44,360
Speaker 1: I want the Israel's Labor Party is never recovered. I

625
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 1: don't know if the Tories are going to recover here.

626
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm just you know, it's it's just astonishing

627
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:54,640
Speaker 1: what happened there. But this is this does happen in

628
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 1: Western democracies where a major party loses multiple elections in

629
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 1: a row, or even if they don't lose multiple in

630
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: a row, they disappoint like I mean, creating a socialist

631
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:11,839
Speaker 1: part right total and I guess which to me, both

632
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 1: parties are more vulnerable to this if there was a

633
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 1: viable alternative. I always said we're never going to have

634
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:20,840
Speaker 1: a third a successful long term third party, But I

635
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 1: buy the idea that we could have a third party

636
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 1: that replaced one of the two major parties, just like

637
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 1: we did with the Republicans in the Wigs.

638
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't rule it out. I mean, obviously in

639
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:32,800
Speaker 2: what you're alluding to in terms of the fundamental structural

640
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 2: problem of standing up and keeping a third party around

641
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 2: for the length of time, it's pretty hard. So ideally, yes,

642
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:44,320
Speaker 2: you do want to essentially start big and then basically

643
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 2: push one of the major parties out the door. Right,

644
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:51,360
Speaker 2: So it's still a duopoly, just we have some different parties.

645
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:53,719
Speaker 1: I mean that Farage is doing that right now with

646
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 1: the Tories. Essentially we're pushing them out the door.

647
00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean, I think it's a little too

648
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:00,759
Speaker 2: early to say that it's a done deal, but it

649
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 2: is remarkable how things have progressed, and it actually shows

650
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:07,040
Speaker 2: I think you know what's going on with center lab

651
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 2: parties too, because it's really bizarre what's happened to the

652
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 2: Labor Party. That's a good example of get into office

653
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 2: because people hate the other parties and you you know,

654
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 2: you think you have a mandate, but really, you know,

655
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 2: basically people don't even like the Labor Party, right. They

656
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 2: have a bunch of positions and doing a bunch of

657
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 2: things people like, they no clue what to do with

658
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 2: the economy. They have this whole crazy ad Milivan renew

659
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:34,319
Speaker 2: deal type stuff. Their social positions are still considerably till

660
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 2: the lap of the media and British voter and people

661
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 2: don't like them, you know. So they're already like plunging

662
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 2: in the polls, and you know, the Tories are sort

663
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 2: of falling up parties you pointed out, and so reform

664
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 2: is just rocketing upward. You look at a lot of

665
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 2: these constituencies where they had the local elections just recently

666
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:56,319
Speaker 2: and according to estimates we are done based on that,

667
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 2: if they held an election for MP's today at Milivan,

668
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 2: lose a seat, right, I mean, crazy stuff like that.

669
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:06,359
Speaker 2: So something's really going on there, and I think what

670
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 2: it shows is that across the Western world people think

671
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 2: the major traditional parties are broken. The system's broken. The

672
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 2: economic outputs are broken, the social contract is broken, the

673
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 2: culture's broken, and they're looking for something that would make

674
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 2: them feel at least a little bit of different, a

675
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:27,759
Speaker 2: little bit of hope, and they're not seeing it. And

676
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 2: this is part of the Democrats problem at this point. Obviously,

677
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 2: Trump's disappointing a lot of people, obviously seems a little crazy,

678
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:36,840
Speaker 2: and people certainly wonder what's going to happen with the economy.

679
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 2: But then they look at the Democrats and say, what

680
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 2: are you kidding me? Why should I vote with these guys?

681
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 2: They're no different than they were, you know during the

682
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 2: Biden administration. I mean, I wrote a piece the other day, Chuck,

683
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,320
Speaker 2: I know if you saw it called Democrats fork in

684
00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:54,359
Speaker 2: the Road, party of restoration or Party of Change, and

685
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 2: I think they're basically, as far as voters are concerned now,

686
00:38:57,239 --> 00:39:00,160
Speaker 2: they look like the Party of Restoration. They're basically not

687
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 2: offering anything different than what they did before. They're not

688
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 2: changing their positions. They don't look like any better bet

689
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:09,760
Speaker 2: than they did previously. Whereas voters are thirsty for change,

690
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:12,719
Speaker 2: they may not know exactly what that change should be.

691
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,800
Speaker 2: But it's kind of like like our I'll know what

692
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 2: when I see it, and you know, Bencrust don't even

693
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,440
Speaker 2: seem to be speaking to that. They're just like Trump

694
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 2: is you know, the fascist, you know, hound in the

695
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 2: White House, and is is satanic Party are about to

696
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:32,399
Speaker 2: destroy the world and the United States and everything else,

697
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 2: and so you should vote for us because we're like,

698
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 2: you know, we're different. I don't be that's enough anymore.

699
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 1: Take me back to nineteen eighty nine, because to me,

700
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 1: the closest parallel for the Democratic Party to right now

701
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 1: is nineteen eighty nine. Get clobberd in a presidential that

702
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 1: they three straight to win resident right, and it was

703
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:56,920
Speaker 1: three straight, just like you know, and you know, it's funny.

704
00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:01,360
Speaker 1: The three nominees before Bill Clinton were Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale,

705
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 1: and Michael Ducacas. And I think about the last three

706
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 1: Democratic nominees, right, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and

707
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 1: they and they to me, they look a little bit

708
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 1: like those other three, right where you're just like they're

709
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 1: they're they're they're at the it was end stage of

710
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:21,359
Speaker 1: that era of that party. And now we know that

711
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 1: was end stage at the time.

712
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:26,800
Speaker 2: The Democrats got at the end of the beginning or

713
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 2: the beginning of the end.

714
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 1: Well, that's my question. What Look, there's a there's a

715
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 1: book that I usually I love to rail on that

716
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 1: was written back then because as a college student I

717
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 1: was I was just as curious about what's going on

718
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 1: with the Democrats. And I remember a book written by

719
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 1: a guy named Peter Brown that said, where the Demo

720
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 1: the Democrats arena become the permanent minority party.

721
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 2: Oh, I know that guy.

722
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 1: I remember Peter And and of course that guy was

723
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:57,360
Speaker 1: so precient that by nineteen ninety two, oops, right, it

724
00:40:57,800 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 1: was wrong. But you know, so in his defense, you know,

725
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 1: you know it. You know, the Democratic presidentiucated it didn't

726
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,799
Speaker 1: win fifty percent until two thousand and eight, right, Like,

727
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:13,439
Speaker 1: So it's not as if he wasn't wrong that, Hey,

728
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 1: this is a shrinking coalition. It just turned out the

729
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 1: Republicans were shrinking faster, right, and that there was that

730
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 1: it was sort of happening on both sides. What should

731
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 1: be some lessons that Democrats ought to take from nineteen

732
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 1: eighty nine and nineteen ninety and nineteen ninety one, because

733
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 1: it seems to me they're you know, if I if

734
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 1: I were them, i'd be looking at that period, going

735
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:38,319
Speaker 1: what what What helped the party get out of that

736
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 1: funk during that period?

737
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 2: Well, I think we should never underestimate the good offices

738
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:47,719
Speaker 2: of the Democratic Leadership Council and the people associated with it.

739
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:51,840
Speaker 2: I mean, they really did form a group that spearheaded,

740
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:56,879
Speaker 2: you know, the concept Democrats' brand was fundamentally flawng Of course,

741
00:41:56,920 --> 00:42:00,920
Speaker 2: there was a great golfston in Kmart piece of politics

742
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 2: Inervation in nineteen eighty nine which basically said Democrats are

743
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 2: kidding themselves. You know, they're not going to be saved

744
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 2: by you know, economics, by the congressional bastion, by whatever.

745
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:14,880
Speaker 2: You really voters don't trust you in a B and C,

746
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:16,360
Speaker 2: and you really must change. You have to be a

747
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 2: different kind of Democrat, and you have to signal that

748
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:23,920
Speaker 2: very clearly, right, And I think that is to some

749
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:27,680
Speaker 2: extent the difference between then and now. Well there're two differences.

750
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 2: So get to the second one and in a second.

751
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 2: But the first one is, I don't think the appetite,

752
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 2: there's no there's no group out there, there's no it's

753
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:39,360
Speaker 2: not really that, there's not really a momentum behind the idea.

754
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 2: We have to be different Democrats haven't lost. Democrat could

755
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 2: be right, I mean, all I just.

756
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:48,080
Speaker 1: Got killed and four hundred electoral votes right, and that

757
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:51,279
Speaker 1: was much closer right. And I can tell you I've

758
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:53,759
Speaker 1: heard from plenty of Democrats to say, you know, butt

759
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,040
Speaker 1: for but four, but four right.

760
00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:59,400
Speaker 2: She'd been able to enter the race earlier. They've been

761
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:02,360
Speaker 2: an open price. I'm mary if there's been better messaging

762
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 2: at the end of the campaign.

763
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 1: I mean, okay, goes and if right, you know, we

764
00:43:06,560 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 1: could we could play that game until until we're blue

765
00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 1: in the face. But you know, it's funny. I remember

766
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:16,760
Speaker 1: doing a story about polarization in Wisconsin and Tommy Thompson

767
00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:19,240
Speaker 1: saying to me, well, the problem is neither party loses

768
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 1: by enough to change, meaning like when you only lose

769
00:43:22,040 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 1: by a point or two, all you think about is, oh, geez,

770
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 1: if I had raised this much more money, ran one

771
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:30,880
Speaker 1: more ad, got in one week earlier. Whatever it is,

772
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:34,879
Speaker 1: you don't believe, you believe your product's good enough. All

773
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:36,280
Speaker 1: you got to do is change.

774
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 2: Both parties believe they're I mean, and whatever the the

775
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:41,799
Speaker 2: out party, they believe they're inches away when becoming the

776
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:44,279
Speaker 2: in party again, and maybe in a big way. So

777
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 2: the incentives to change aren't high. So I think that's

778
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:50,719
Speaker 2: why sort of the revealed preference of Democrats at this

779
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:54,640
Speaker 2: point is to be the party of restoration rather than

780
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 2: the party of change, because that's the easy way. You

781
00:43:56,760 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 2: don't have the signal to It.

782
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:01,319
Speaker 1: Worked the first time, right up one point zero, I

783
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:02,720
Speaker 1: think in there mind at work.

784
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 2: Right right, Yeah, but this time there may not be

785
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 2: a COVID pandemic and all this kind of stuff. Plus,

786
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 2: you know, we've had the trumpeon change in politics for

787
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 2: a while now, and it doesn't look like you know

788
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 2: that lands the boy. It looks like the populist appetite

789
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:23,320
Speaker 2: for change, particularly annoyment working class is stronger, if anything,

790
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 2: than it was before. So yeah, I think they're you know,

791
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:30,799
Speaker 2: they're obvious. They are trying to rerun the same playbook,

792
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:34,319
Speaker 2: and I think it's less significantly less likely to work.

793
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:36,040
Speaker 2: But the second thing I was going to mention Schuck,

794
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:39,160
Speaker 2: besides the fact they don't see the momentum there or

795
00:44:40,360 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 2: you know, we have to establish we're a different kind

796
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:46,480
Speaker 2: of democrat, new democrat, whatever the phrase you want to

797
00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 2: we have to be really different. So the appetite isn't

798
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:51,040
Speaker 2: there for that yet. For a lot of the reasons

799
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:53,160
Speaker 2: we've been going over. The second thing, though, is if

800
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 2: you look at the DLC and its origins and how

801
00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:59,399
Speaker 2: it developed as much influence as it did, it had

802
00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:01,440
Speaker 2: a lot to do with the structure of the Democratic

803
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 2: Party at the time and what the Congressional caucus was like.

804
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:06,759
Speaker 2: There were a lot of moderates in the Midwest and

805
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 2: the South whore like shaping at the bid to do

806
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:13,160
Speaker 2: something like this, right because you know, they knew that

807
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:16,359
Speaker 2: things were not going well in their areas and they

808
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 2: just right, yah, yeah, yeah, you had you had a

809
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 2: different kind of party where that kind of moderation and

810
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:25,799
Speaker 2: that kind of tendedness to to the working class voter

811
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 2: or the median voter was was just much higher and

812
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:32,240
Speaker 2: there wasn't. But I think throughout the Democratic Party now, uh,

813
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:35,320
Speaker 2: you know, it's much more uniform, much more homogeneous in

814
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 2: terms of ideology, and much more hostile to the idea

815
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 2: that Democrats really need to change any of what they

816
00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:42,920
Speaker 2: stand for to make progress, right. I think that's a

817
00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 2: much easier sell. And there was a political base within

818
00:45:45,600 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 2: the party back in the eighty quarter eighty eight period

819
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 2: that just I don't think there's an analog to today.

820
00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:54,640
Speaker 1: You know, I think about what's happening. You got one

821
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:57,520
Speaker 1: of the leading members of the Democratic Party, were the

822
00:45:57,560 --> 00:45:59,880
Speaker 1: mayor of Detroit, deciding he's going to run for governors

823
00:45:59,920 --> 00:46:04,239
Speaker 1: independent because he takes he's cut he can. He may

824
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:06,560
Speaker 1: be making primary calculating, there's a lot of calculations he

825
00:46:06,640 --> 00:46:09,200
Speaker 1: may be making, But to me, it says something that

826
00:46:09,239 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 1: he feels as if he can govern better, if he

827
00:46:11,520 --> 00:46:14,640
Speaker 1: can govern as an independent. The leader of Democrats in

828
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:17,720
Speaker 1: the state Senate in Florida decides to leave the party

829
00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:21,920
Speaker 1: again to run for government. And again, I you know, there's.

830
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 3: Always there's always a there's always some story behind the

831
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 3: scenes that's usually personal and all that stuff in these moves,

832
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:33,799
Speaker 3: and yet the big picture, they both make sense to me.

833
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 1: Right, the Democratic brand is broken in Florida. It's not

834
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 1: as if people love the Republicans. It's this literally there

835
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:45,200
Speaker 1: is the Democratic alternative is just unacceptable. So if you're

836
00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 1: going to create an alternative, you're going to have to

837
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:48,239
Speaker 1: start something new.

838
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:52,440
Speaker 2: So if that's the joint something right, If that's.

839
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 1: The way you Florida Democrats feel, what do you do

840
00:46:57,120 --> 00:46:59,719
Speaker 1: if you're at the DNC right now, how do you

841
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:02,360
Speaker 1: sort of of you know, or do you think the

842
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:04,800
Speaker 1: problem is the leadership doesn't see the problem.

843
00:47:06,040 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 2: I don't think they see the problem. I think it's

844
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:11,239
Speaker 2: pretty obvious from the way Ken Martin ran for chair

845
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:16,320
Speaker 2: and all the Michigs around that that series of election.

846
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 2: Of course they just threw out David Hawk. I mean,

847
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 2: the DNC does not have feel doesn't have an understanding,

848
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:26,280
Speaker 2: nor they wish to try to, and they have limited

849
00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 2: power to push the Democrats in a direction that would

850
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:35,240
Speaker 2: be ostentatiously moderate different kind of democrat. As Ken Lartin

851
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 2: famously put it, there's nothing wrong with in our message

852
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 2: or whatever, we just didn't deliver it well. I mean,

853
00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 2: you believe.

854
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 1: That always funny. I rarely meet a politician who doesn't

855
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:48,520
Speaker 1: believe they have a communications problem, right, so you never

856
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:50,080
Speaker 1: actually think they have an issue.

857
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:55,160
Speaker 2: It's all comms problems. And until and unless democratic entities

858
00:47:55,239 --> 00:47:58,319
Speaker 2: like that start realizing it's not just a mat it's

859
00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:01,400
Speaker 2: not just a comms problem. Pople don't like us. They

860
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 2: don't like what we stand for, they don't like a

861
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:05,919
Speaker 2: lot of our positions they associate with us. They don't

862
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:08,279
Speaker 2: believe we're going to bring change. So we have to

863
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 2: really change that. We can't just stick with our message

864
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 2: and the way we are and maybe go on more

865
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:17,840
Speaker 2: Fox News more often, you know, or talk to Joe Rogan.

866
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:20,719
Speaker 2: I mean, this is like classic calm strategy. Oh the

867
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 2: problem is we just didn't You didn't go out broadly

868
00:48:24,120 --> 00:48:26,160
Speaker 2: enough to talk to the masses of honest workers and

869
00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:28,480
Speaker 2: peasants about our great ideas. What if they don't think

870
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:29,600
Speaker 2: your ideas are so great?

871
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 1: That isn't there a lesson to be learned? Isn't there

872
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:35,799
Speaker 1: a lesson to be learned here from Trump? In this way,

873
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 1: Trump realized that the Republican Party was unpopular, and he

874
00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 1: looked at two of the issues that made the Republican

875
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 1: Party untrustworthy and unpopular over the last twenty years, Iraq

876
00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:51,400
Speaker 1: war and trying to try and do trim entitlements and

877
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 1: what did he say, that's stupid idea.

878
00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 2: I don't don't forget trade.

879
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 1: And on trade, the sort of three issues where he

880
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:02,360
Speaker 1: went against his own run against the Republican Party, and

881
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 1: he did it in a primary sort of did it

882
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:08,480
Speaker 1: in bullying ways. He trashed Bush and I remember when

883
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:11,160
Speaker 1: he first did it, you thought, should you do that

884
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:15,920
Speaker 1: in a Republican primary, Right, it seemed really risky. In hindsight,

885
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 1: it seems genius right now, Right, it would be like

886
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:23,680
Speaker 1: a Democrat running in a Democratic primary just trashing you know,

887
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:30,239
Speaker 1: Biden and Clinton and it it might work. But I

888
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 1: don't know if there's a Democrat out there that's willing

889
00:49:32,239 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 1: to do.

890
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 2: It yet, right, I think I think that's that's the problem.

891
00:49:35,719 --> 00:49:39,440
Speaker 2: It does seem like an obvious opening for some political entrepreneur,

892
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 2: But does anyone have the guts to do it? I mean,

893
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:45,279
Speaker 2: we have the acknowledge I think at this point, Chuck,

894
00:49:45,360 --> 00:49:49,440
Speaker 2: that Trump is like the towering political figure of the

895
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 2: twenty first century in America. I mean he is, you know,

896
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:56,319
Speaker 2: if not a genius, there's something about him that's just

897
00:49:56,560 --> 00:49:59,920
Speaker 2: quite remarkable. I mean, he really has trends. He's resilient

898
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:03,719
Speaker 2: Erican political landscape, and he's transformed the Republican Party. He's

899
00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:06,800
Speaker 2: transformed an entire political party. And as you will say,

900
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 2: he leveraged that by taking by becoming a different kind

901
00:50:10,160 --> 00:50:13,719
Speaker 2: of Republican. And who are the Democrats change their brand?

902
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:16,640
Speaker 2: He changed their completely changed their brand. Right, who's the

903
00:50:16,719 --> 00:50:19,840
Speaker 2: who's the brand changer out there among potential.

904
00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 1: That's my question to you.

905
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:23,279
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't see anybody. I mean, you can

906
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:26,600
Speaker 2: look at people who are somewhat sensible at times, like

907
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:30,799
Speaker 2: Josh Shapira or whatever, and you realize her being extremely

908
00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:33,400
Speaker 2: cautious about what they say and how they say it,

909
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:36,480
Speaker 2: and are just uncleared. Look at a list of slutkin right.

910
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:38,359
Speaker 2: I mean, she said, we don't want to be weak

911
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:44,560
Speaker 2: and woke. But okay, okay, what is your brand? Then?

912
00:50:44,560 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 2: What do you you stand for? Nobody wants to go there,

913
00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 2: and maybe somebody will, but it's not It doesn't fill

914
00:50:52,080 --> 00:50:56,279
Speaker 2: me with optimism that nobody so far is really saying

915
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 2: anything that looks very much like that. And you could

916
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:02,520
Speaker 2: actually add to that, let's let's factor in the probability

917
00:51:02,960 --> 00:51:06,160
Speaker 2: that the Democrats retake the House in twenty six.

918
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 1: Oh, they'll learn the wrong lessons from that, right.

919
00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:10,759
Speaker 2: And maybe they pick up a you know, maybe they

920
00:51:10,760 --> 00:51:12,720
Speaker 2: won't take the Senate, but they do better than expected.

921
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:15,360
Speaker 2: It's like, okay, fine, everything's great, you know, on to

922
00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:18,239
Speaker 2: twenty twenty eight. So I think that's going to be

923
00:51:18,280 --> 00:51:18,720
Speaker 2: a problem.

924
00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:21,600
Speaker 1: You could picture what do you make of what Gavin

925
00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:22,920
Speaker 1: Newsom's trying to do?

926
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:27,200
Speaker 2: Well? Gavin, he gives opportunism a bad name. Well, I'll say,

927
00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:29,239
Speaker 2: you know, I kind of admire that.

928
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:32,640
Speaker 1: He's at least reacting to the data he's seeing. That's

929
00:51:32,640 --> 00:51:35,920
Speaker 1: the way I look at it. Not skeptical, but he's like, well.

930
00:51:35,920 --> 00:51:38,879
Speaker 2: He's very smart. He's very smart, and I think he's

931
00:51:38,880 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 2: doing exactly the right thing to kind of try to

932
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:46,879
Speaker 2: resuscitate his chances as a national politician. Personally, I don't

933
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:50,040
Speaker 2: think it's going to work. There's too much backstory there.

934
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:52,560
Speaker 2: California is too much of a frigging mess. They're going

935
00:51:52,600 --> 00:51:53,280
Speaker 2: to hit eight dollars.

936
00:51:53,520 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 1: The former mayor of San Francisco is never going to

937
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:57,080
Speaker 1: be elected president in that state.

938
00:51:57,520 --> 00:52:00,000
Speaker 2: By breath on that one. But I think it's it's

939
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:02,920
Speaker 2: interesting what he's what he's doing. Maybe he'll be content

940
00:52:03,040 --> 00:52:08,280
Speaker 2: to just be, you know, a sort of a gadfly

941
00:52:08,400 --> 00:52:10,840
Speaker 2: in the Democratic Party and we don't forget about trying

942
00:52:10,840 --> 00:52:14,000
Speaker 2: to be president. Maybe he's sincerely convinced they're going down

943
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:16,400
Speaker 2: the wrong path and he's going to the Democrats.

944
00:52:17,360 --> 00:52:19,920
Speaker 1: He looks a little that's the Jerry Brown. The irony

945
00:52:20,000 --> 00:52:23,200
Speaker 1: is that that's the Jerry Brown path right right, And

946
00:52:23,280 --> 00:52:26,920
Speaker 1: maybe that is Kevin is slowly finding himself walking in

947
00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:27,799
Speaker 1: those shoes.

948
00:52:27,680 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 2: Serve the people, save the planet, and explore the universe.

949
00:52:30,640 --> 00:52:32,200
Speaker 2: Let's just yeah, you know, let's do it again.

950
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 1: So let's get down to more brass tacks, meaning the

951
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:41,040
Speaker 1: party needs to find a Bill Clinton or Bill Clinton

952
00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:43,600
Speaker 1: needs to a Bill Clinton needs to show up and

953
00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:46,680
Speaker 1: be willing to do this. I looked at the governors

954
00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:50,000
Speaker 1: and while the first governor that people want to throw

955
00:52:50,000 --> 00:52:53,160
Speaker 1: at me is usually Andy Basheer, and I'm like, I've

956
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:56,799
Speaker 1: on paper, it makes sense to me. I'm not sure

957
00:52:56,840 --> 00:53:04,120
Speaker 1: he's a political athlete. We'll but but I'm somewhat skeptical there.

958
00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:08,720
Speaker 1: But ideologically he may he may feel like the right answer.

959
00:53:09,640 --> 00:53:12,359
Speaker 1: But I'm with these other governors, and the only one

960
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:15,440
Speaker 1: that seems to be comfortable challenging the status quo in

961
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:19,360
Speaker 1: the party besides Gavin for his own is Jared Poulis.

962
00:53:19,040 --> 00:53:26,520
Speaker 2: Yeah bring yeah, and and but how Nancy willing to

963
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 2: challenge the status go It's also Jazzi libertarian kind of stuff.

964
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 1: He's more of an ununitarian right.

965
00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:33,880
Speaker 2: But in terms of the other issues that have been

966
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:36,000
Speaker 2: demo the Democrats, he is, Yeah, he doesn't want to

967
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:38,120
Speaker 2: go here's the party line guy. So I don't know.

968
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:40,759
Speaker 1: I don't know either, but he seems to be one

969
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:43,239
Speaker 1: at least that isn't cookie cutter. Right. You look at

970
00:53:43,239 --> 00:53:45,719
Speaker 1: all these other Democratic governors and they all feel like

971
00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:49,520
Speaker 1: they're operating between lines here where Bill Glinton was picking

972
00:53:49,520 --> 00:53:53,239
Speaker 1: fights with Jesse Jackson. Yeah, yeah, that's what he was doing,

973
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:55,359
Speaker 1: and Ron Brown and Jesse Jackson, he was picking those

974
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:56,279
Speaker 1: fights in nineteen ninety.

975
00:53:56,360 --> 00:53:59,919
Speaker 2: I'd apply that template to like Josh Shapiro, I stick.

976
00:54:00,239 --> 00:54:04,000
Speaker 2: I think is interesting. He's clearly working within those lines.

977
00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:05,920
Speaker 2: You know, he's kind of gone right up to the edge,

978
00:54:05,960 --> 00:54:07,840
Speaker 2: but not go over. He's not going to pick fights.

979
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:10,600
Speaker 2: He's just not And maybe it's just per personality.

980
00:54:10,640 --> 00:54:15,840
Speaker 1: Then I don't know, right, Well, uh, it's interesting. Barack

981
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:18,200
Speaker 1: Obama was very cautious but knew at least when to

982
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:18,759
Speaker 1: pick a fight.

983
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:24,160
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, he was another political athlete that Democrats don't

984
00:54:24,160 --> 00:54:28,320
Speaker 2: seem to have much of these days. Right. And also

985
00:54:28,360 --> 00:54:28,719
Speaker 2: he was.

986
00:54:32,320 --> 00:54:34,960
Speaker 1: Let let me comp to something. If you were to

987
00:54:35,480 --> 00:54:39,200
Speaker 1: let's we're we're sitting here searching for people. But if

988
00:54:39,239 --> 00:54:42,680
Speaker 1: you can't serve for people, you try to change the process.

989
00:54:43,480 --> 00:54:48,600
Speaker 1: How what's what states should the party be working hardest?

990
00:54:48,640 --> 00:54:52,400
Speaker 1: In to try to you know, there's the mindset of

991
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:55,120
Speaker 1: just figure out how to deal with the seven states

992
00:54:55,120 --> 00:54:59,360
Speaker 1: that decide this election, or start thinking about where's the

993
00:54:59,400 --> 00:55:02,480
Speaker 1: demographic headed in in the decade of the twenty thirties

994
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:05,600
Speaker 1: and start worrying about that. What would you be advising

995
00:55:08,040 --> 00:55:11,640
Speaker 1: Democratic Party operatives to be focusing their efforts when it

996
00:55:11,680 --> 00:55:15,400
Speaker 1: comes to which states to be targeting, which constituency groups,

997
00:55:15,400 --> 00:55:15,759
Speaker 1: et cetera.

998
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:20,600
Speaker 2: Barbick Texas is kind of an interesting example because that

999
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:23,560
Speaker 2: was always a great blue whale for the Democrats. It's

1000
00:55:23,560 --> 00:55:25,680
Speaker 2: clearly slipping out of reach. And why is it slipping

1001
00:55:25,719 --> 00:55:29,640
Speaker 2: out of reach? Because they're basically losing altitude among the

1002
00:55:29,680 --> 00:55:33,319
Speaker 2: group that they thought would you know, in the end

1003
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:36,759
Speaker 2: turn Texas towards the Democrats, which is the Hispanic vote, right,

1004
00:55:37,120 --> 00:55:40,200
Speaker 2: So you need to figure out why is there, you know,

1005
00:55:40,480 --> 00:55:42,719
Speaker 2: and what can we do about it? And if you

1006
00:55:42,760 --> 00:55:45,719
Speaker 2: can't start appealing to these Hispanic working class voters in

1007
00:55:45,760 --> 00:55:49,440
Speaker 2: a place like Texas, your whole political, long term political

1008
00:55:49,480 --> 00:55:52,680
Speaker 2: strategy starts to fall apart. So, I mean, that's not

1009
00:55:52,760 --> 00:55:55,160
Speaker 2: the only state you want to work in, but it

1010
00:55:55,200 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 2: would be an interesting example of a state where you

1011
00:55:58,520 --> 00:56:01,600
Speaker 2: should really take seriously that you know, you should be

1012
00:56:01,680 --> 00:56:04,800
Speaker 2: more companited there. And there's a variety of other states

1013
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:08,359
Speaker 2: where I mean, you could argue that pick a red

1014
00:56:08,360 --> 00:56:11,640
Speaker 2: state at random, where the you know, purple purple, and then

1015
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:14,720
Speaker 2: red state where Democrats don't have a prayer of electing

1016
00:56:14,719 --> 00:56:18,239
Speaker 2: a senator, right, you know, pick out one or two

1017
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 2: of those and figure out, well, how can we crack

1018
00:56:20,239 --> 00:56:22,920
Speaker 2: this case, because if we can't crack that case, we're

1019
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:25,000
Speaker 2: never taken back to the Senate. It's not it to me.

1020
00:56:25,440 --> 00:56:30,800
Speaker 1: Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska, those were you know, shooting Nebraska and

1021
00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 1: Iowa provided two or three Democratic senators my whole life

1022
00:56:36,160 --> 00:56:38,840
Speaker 1: up until the last uh right enders.

1023
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:42,000
Speaker 2: Working in those states. Basically you're talking about finding you

1024
00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:43,960
Speaker 2: much better among the white working class because that's the

1025
00:56:43,960 --> 00:56:46,760
Speaker 2: only way you're probably going to be able to elect

1026
00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:49,759
Speaker 2: senators there. But in Texas it would be more like

1027
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:52,840
Speaker 2: the Hispanic work. So you put those two together, and

1028
00:56:52,880 --> 00:56:54,800
Speaker 2: I think those are that's a basket of targets you

1029
00:56:54,800 --> 00:56:57,840
Speaker 2: could start working harder on. But if yeah, if you

1030
00:56:57,880 --> 00:57:00,560
Speaker 2: just stick to the big seven so called I think

1031
00:57:00,600 --> 00:57:03,319
Speaker 2: that's you're just working at the margins. I don't think

1032
00:57:03,320 --> 00:57:06,359
Speaker 2: it really focuses your attention on the things, the big

1033
00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 2: things that need to be sold. You're just looking, oh,

1034
00:57:08,600 --> 00:57:11,880
Speaker 2: we just we just make a marginal improvement here or there,

1035
00:57:11,960 --> 00:57:13,479
Speaker 2: and you know, we're back in the game.

1036
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:17,240
Speaker 1: I've contended that one of the bigger mistakes Democrats are

1037
00:57:17,240 --> 00:57:20,760
Speaker 1: making is walking away from Iowa as a presidential selection state,

1038
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:25,200
Speaker 1: because I think Iowa at a minimum forced party operatives

1039
00:57:25,240 --> 00:57:27,520
Speaker 1: to at least learn how to talk to working class

1040
00:57:27,520 --> 00:57:28,040
Speaker 1: white people.

1041
00:57:28,200 --> 00:57:31,760
Speaker 2: I agree, agree, yeah, I mean, I mean, people forget

1042
00:57:31,800 --> 00:57:35,040
Speaker 2: it wasn't that long ago when Democratic presidential candidates used

1043
00:57:35,080 --> 00:57:40,120
Speaker 2: to carry the wide working class. I mean, wasn't that well,

1044
00:57:40,200 --> 00:57:43,600
Speaker 2: you know, I mean the big spike was in twenty sixteen,

1045
00:57:43,720 --> 00:57:45,920
Speaker 2: but they were losing it even before then. But it

1046
00:57:45,960 --> 00:57:48,040
Speaker 2: was just there was all these like what we now

1047
00:57:48,080 --> 00:57:52,880
Speaker 2: think of is pretty red Midwestern states where Democrats regularly

1048
00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:55,560
Speaker 2: with carry the white working class at league just by

1049
00:57:55,560 --> 00:57:58,200
Speaker 2: a little bit. And because they're getting hammered so badly

1050
00:57:58,240 --> 00:58:01,240
Speaker 2: among that demographic from those states where the ruins so large,

1051
00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:03,800
Speaker 2: they don't have a lot of chance, and of course,

1052
00:58:03,880 --> 00:58:05,680
Speaker 2: you know, you try to make that up and into

1053
00:58:05,720 --> 00:58:08,760
Speaker 2: some extent they have a white college educated voters. I

1054
00:58:08,760 --> 00:58:11,400
Speaker 2: mean that's I mean, why are the Democrats even competitive

1055
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:14,800
Speaker 2: and wisconsints because of white college impicated voters. That's really

1056
00:58:14,840 --> 00:58:15,600
Speaker 2: that's really it.

1057
00:58:16,360 --> 00:58:20,480
Speaker 1: What why do you think the Wisconsin has stayed more

1058
00:58:20,520 --> 00:58:23,560
Speaker 1: competitive than Iowa or the Dakota's.

1059
00:58:23,160 --> 00:58:26,080
Speaker 2: Well a, there's more white college educated voters, but I

1060
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:27,800
Speaker 2: mean it's just a mix of that thing, right, They're

1061
00:58:27,840 --> 00:58:29,880
Speaker 2: just more of them, and they moved pretty sharply in

1062
00:58:29,880 --> 00:58:33,640
Speaker 2: the Democrats direction. The second thing is that there's more

1063
00:58:33,680 --> 00:58:35,760
Speaker 2: than some of these other states, only more than Iowa.

1064
00:58:35,800 --> 00:58:41,080
Speaker 2: I think there's kind of a residual populous working class.

1065
00:58:41,640 --> 00:58:44,560
Speaker 2: You know, I remember the Democrats, they weren't so bad,

1066
00:58:45,120 --> 00:58:48,000
Speaker 2: you know, the kind of populist economic edge, which I

1067
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:52,080
Speaker 2: think still helps them. But I think logically that edge

1068
00:58:52,200 --> 00:58:55,040
Speaker 2: is going to decline election over election because some of

1069
00:58:55,080 --> 00:58:58,280
Speaker 2: its generational, and it's probably going to get win. Its

1070
00:58:58,320 --> 00:59:01,040
Speaker 2: recently going to go away. So you know, they need

1071
00:59:01,040 --> 00:59:04,680
Speaker 2: a different formula to reach the newer working class voters.

1072
00:59:04,720 --> 00:59:08,080
Speaker 2: And obviously it's fool's gold to rely on how well

1073
00:59:08,080 --> 00:59:11,280
Speaker 2: they're doing them quite college voters, because it's just not enough.

1074
00:59:12,400 --> 00:59:14,360
Speaker 2: We're always going to be in a nice edge, and

1075
00:59:15,960 --> 00:59:19,800
Speaker 2: if you want to actually have a solid not just

1076
00:59:20,480 --> 00:59:22,360
Speaker 2: sort of for it for a US, not just like

1077
00:59:22,480 --> 00:59:24,920
Speaker 2: fifty to fifty chance. If you want, like to regularly

1078
00:59:24,960 --> 00:59:27,800
Speaker 2: win Wisconsin, then I think you have to take seriously,

1079
00:59:27,880 --> 00:59:31,160
Speaker 2: I do you do much better among white working class voters.

1080
00:59:31,160 --> 00:59:33,040
Speaker 2: Forget about the white college voters. I got to vote

1081
00:59:33,040 --> 00:59:36,040
Speaker 2: for you in I think, and you've got to get

1082
00:59:36,080 --> 00:59:37,600
Speaker 2: out the black I mean, look a look at what's

1083
00:59:37,600 --> 00:59:39,480
Speaker 2: happening with the non white working class vote, and a

1084
00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:42,439
Speaker 2: lot of states like Wisconsin just to show up. It's

1085
00:59:42,480 --> 00:59:44,480
Speaker 2: just not showing up. They don't like the Democrats, they

1086
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:47,640
Speaker 2: don't care about them. You know, there's increasing Hispanic presence

1087
00:59:47,680 --> 00:59:50,200
Speaker 2: in some of these states too, But it is remarkable

1088
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:53,240
Speaker 2: how unenthusiastic black working classes.

1089
00:59:53,240 --> 00:59:55,080
Speaker 1: What did you make of the fact, you know, one

1090
00:59:55,080 --> 00:59:58,560
Speaker 1: of the other weird ways that Democratic strategists are trying

1091
00:59:58,560 --> 01:00:02,080
Speaker 1: to take they look at the twenty twenty four result

1092
01:00:02,160 --> 01:00:05,400
Speaker 1: and think, well, it's where we campaigned we did well,

1093
01:00:05,440 --> 01:00:07,920
Speaker 1: and where we didn't we didn't. Meaning what do you

1094
01:00:08,000 --> 01:00:12,000
Speaker 1: think of the fact that Illinois and New Jersey right

1095
01:00:12,080 --> 01:00:18,120
Speaker 1: were four and five point presidential states? But which if

1096
01:00:18,120 --> 01:00:21,000
Speaker 1: I had told you that in isolation, then that would

1097
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:23,280
Speaker 1: have probably made you think, oh, well, then Trump must

1098
01:00:23,280 --> 01:00:25,840
Speaker 1: have won Michigan by ten but he didn't run, right,

1099
01:00:26,200 --> 01:00:28,080
Speaker 1: So what do you make of the fact that wherever

1100
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:32,520
Speaker 1: Democrats didn't campaign, they did worse and at least did

1101
01:00:32,560 --> 01:00:36,840
Speaker 1: their seven states they held there they basically were that

1102
01:00:37,000 --> 01:00:37,760
Speaker 1: What does that tell you?

1103
01:00:38,720 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 2: I think the top of mind reaction to the parties

1104
01:00:41,560 --> 01:00:45,480
Speaker 2: at this point is not good for the Democrats. And yeah,

1105
01:00:45,520 --> 01:00:50,000
Speaker 2: campaigning matters. You pour enough money into a given state,

1106
01:00:50,160 --> 01:00:52,760
Speaker 2: you probably moved a needle somewhat. But it just shows

1107
01:00:52,760 --> 01:00:56,240
Speaker 2: that the baseline party preference in a lot of these

1108
01:00:56,280 --> 01:01:01,160
Speaker 2: states is turning against you. Right, you don't campaign in Illinois. Uh,

1109
01:01:01,520 --> 01:01:04,080
Speaker 2: and that's what winds up happening. I mean that should

1110
01:01:04,360 --> 01:01:06,520
Speaker 2: tell you something, Right, there's a lot of voters out

1111
01:01:06,520 --> 01:01:14,040
Speaker 2: there who will show up in a presidential year without

1112
01:01:14,760 --> 01:01:16,960
Speaker 2: too much feeding them over the head, and they don't

1113
01:01:17,040 --> 01:01:20,680
Speaker 2: like you very much. So because you know, I mean,

1114
01:01:20,720 --> 01:01:22,560
Speaker 2: the issue really, I suppose how do you interpret this

1115
01:01:22,600 --> 01:01:24,880
Speaker 2: matter of persuasion or mobilization. We spend more money, we

1116
01:01:24,920 --> 01:01:27,160
Speaker 2: mobilize more of our people. We spend more money, we

1117
01:01:27,200 --> 01:01:29,360
Speaker 2: actually like move some of the people who otherwise saying

1118
01:01:29,400 --> 01:01:31,840
Speaker 2: why not give Trump a chance? We actually managed to

1119
01:01:31,840 --> 01:01:34,280
Speaker 2: persuade some of those people not to vote to vote

1120
01:01:34,280 --> 01:01:37,200
Speaker 2: for Harris. It's not a solvable problem. I mean, we

1121
01:01:37,560 --> 01:01:40,680
Speaker 2: I think the data suggests that, you know, the specifisticated

1122
01:01:40,720 --> 01:01:44,280
Speaker 2: analyses overall, at least the tribute three quarters of the

1123
01:01:44,360 --> 01:01:47,080
Speaker 2: change to persuasion and one quarter to mobilization in this election.

1124
01:01:47,240 --> 01:01:49,920
Speaker 2: But it would depend obviously on the state. But I

1125
01:01:49,920 --> 01:01:53,360
Speaker 2: would not say it it's a I mean, I guess

1126
01:01:53,360 --> 01:01:55,600
Speaker 2: you could infer from that, well, if we campaign hard

1127
01:01:55,720 --> 01:01:59,520
Speaker 2: enough everywhere, you know, and we if we did so

1128
01:01:59,600 --> 01:02:02,360
Speaker 2: much better and swing state X as we can't paint

1129
01:02:02,440 --> 01:02:05,000
Speaker 2: hard and spend a lot of money as opposed to

1130
01:02:05,040 --> 01:02:08,000
Speaker 2: an Illinois California, and that just means we spent even

1131
01:02:08,000 --> 01:02:12,000
Speaker 2: more money, and those swing states will do you even better.

1132
01:02:12,480 --> 01:02:14,520
Speaker 2: And you know, we don't even need to worry about

1133
01:02:14,600 --> 01:02:17,720
Speaker 2: the fact that we're losing ground and urban areas in

1134
01:02:17,760 --> 01:02:20,760
Speaker 2: New Jersey and Illinois and so on among nonway working

1135
01:02:20,760 --> 01:02:24,280
Speaker 2: class voters. But I think I think that's a temptation

1136
01:02:25,480 --> 01:02:29,040
Speaker 2: among some strategists, but I think it would be would

1137
01:02:29,080 --> 01:02:31,040
Speaker 2: be wrong. I think they should see it instead as

1138
01:02:31,080 --> 01:02:34,000
Speaker 2: part of a general pattern of this realignment we've been

1139
01:02:34,040 --> 01:02:36,600
Speaker 2: talking about, which is problematic for the Democrats.

1140
01:02:37,000 --> 01:02:39,120
Speaker 1: By the way, in your walk of your in your

1141
01:02:39,160 --> 01:02:41,640
Speaker 1: professional circles, have you found the following to be true?

1142
01:02:41,680 --> 01:02:44,680
Speaker 1: Because I have, which is, Democratic strategists are to the

1143
01:02:44,760 --> 01:02:47,360
Speaker 1: left of their of the mean voter of the Democratic Party,

1144
01:02:47,640 --> 01:02:50,040
Speaker 1: and Republican strategists are to the left of the mean

1145
01:02:50,120 --> 01:02:51,360
Speaker 1: voter of the Republican.

1146
01:02:51,000 --> 01:02:52,680
Speaker 2: Absolutely, no question about it.

1147
01:02:52,680 --> 01:02:55,160
Speaker 1: And I think it's a huge problem for the Democratic Party.

1148
01:02:55,320 --> 01:03:00,440
Speaker 1: Well document Republican strategists than are swing voters themselves, right,

1149
01:03:00,640 --> 01:03:03,680
Speaker 1: so it makes it easier for them to understand what

1150
01:03:03,720 --> 01:03:05,520
Speaker 1: would it take for me to find this power?

1151
01:03:05,960 --> 01:03:09,320
Speaker 2: Democratic strategists move the Democrats away from the center, Republican

1152
01:03:09,360 --> 01:03:12,920
Speaker 2: strategists moving toward the center. I think that's a significant factor.

1153
01:03:13,000 --> 01:03:15,240
Speaker 2: I mean, we know it's not just a strategist, it's

1154
01:03:15,240 --> 01:03:18,360
Speaker 2: a whole infrastructure of the Democratic Party and of his

1155
01:03:18,520 --> 01:03:21,960
Speaker 2: institutions that are associated with the Democratic Party. They're all

1156
01:03:22,840 --> 01:03:26,360
Speaker 2: really pretty far to that. As a median voter, particularly

1157
01:03:26,360 --> 01:03:29,840
Speaker 2: on top puton issues. So this is uh. And again

1158
01:03:29,840 --> 01:03:32,760
Speaker 2: I think there's not an honest attempt to grapple with

1159
01:03:32,880 --> 01:03:34,880
Speaker 2: that and make the appropriate corrections.

1160
01:03:35,360 --> 01:03:38,240
Speaker 4: Right, No, because you'll look at somebody, you'll look afraid

1161
01:03:38,280 --> 01:03:41,360
Speaker 4: of absolutely will. And so I say, I think I

1162
01:03:41,400 --> 01:03:44,560
Speaker 4: wrote a piece one saying, you know, Democrats need to

1163
01:03:44,600 --> 01:03:47,000
Speaker 4: piss more people off and until they do it.

1164
01:03:47,680 --> 01:03:49,200
Speaker 2: Well, that is the elect to learn.

1165
01:03:49,120 --> 01:03:51,320
Speaker 1: From Trump, right, that could be one lesson to learn,

1166
01:03:51,480 --> 01:03:55,560
Speaker 1: Like you know, and you know, I think about Bill

1167
01:03:55,600 --> 01:03:58,080
Speaker 1: Clinton and I go back and forth, and it's like, look,

1168
01:03:58,120 --> 01:04:00,480
Speaker 1: he had a lot of flaws and certain things, but

1169
01:04:01,240 --> 01:04:03,240
Speaker 1: he knew how to He also knew which fights de

1170
01:04:03,240 --> 01:04:04,280
Speaker 1: picked and which fights.

1171
01:04:04,040 --> 01:04:07,080
Speaker 2: Not to pick. Yeah, well, back to six Sisters sold John.

1172
01:04:07,440 --> 01:04:11,400
Speaker 2: I mean, people strenuously resist the idea of Democrats need

1173
01:04:11,440 --> 01:04:14,040
Speaker 2: to do anything like that in the in the next

1174
01:04:14,080 --> 01:04:16,200
Speaker 2: period of time. And mind you, they not only need

1175
01:04:16,240 --> 01:04:18,240
Speaker 2: to do it, they probably need to have a whole

1176
01:04:18,280 --> 01:04:20,360
Speaker 2: series of mini sisters. So quite a few a bunch

1177
01:04:20,360 --> 01:04:21,360
Speaker 2: of musicians.

1178
01:04:21,920 --> 01:04:23,960
Speaker 1: Let me get you out of here on this topic,

1179
01:04:23,960 --> 01:04:27,560
Speaker 1: which is which gets sort of I love the twenty

1180
01:04:27,560 --> 01:04:30,160
Speaker 1: twenty foot the two twenty twenty five state wide elections

1181
01:04:30,160 --> 01:04:34,520
Speaker 1: this year because in many ways they will show the

1182
01:04:34,560 --> 01:04:37,840
Speaker 1: sort of the Democratic parties both new strength, which is

1183
01:04:38,200 --> 01:04:41,240
Speaker 1: the educated elites that all live in Virginia. That's probably

1184
01:04:41,240 --> 01:04:44,360
Speaker 1: going to make Abigail Spenberger win by a fairly comfortable

1185
01:04:44,440 --> 01:04:50,080
Speaker 1: margin's pissed off also probably help her and all of that. Meanwhile,

1186
01:04:50,120 --> 01:04:52,520
Speaker 1: in New Jersey, where they're going to be replaced, and oh,

1187
01:04:52,560 --> 01:04:55,160
Speaker 1: by the way, they have there's an incumbent Republican governor

1188
01:04:55,640 --> 01:04:59,800
Speaker 1: New Jersey or supposedly reliable blue state. I have a

1189
01:04:59,800 --> 01:05:03,360
Speaker 1: few we're going to see a pretty competitive gubernatorial election

1190
01:05:03,600 --> 01:05:07,000
Speaker 1: because of what we were just talking about here, which

1191
01:05:07,040 --> 01:05:10,880
Speaker 1: is so I guess what would you be looking for

1192
01:05:10,880 --> 01:05:13,320
Speaker 1: for the Democrats to tell you in New Jersey, to

1193
01:05:13,400 --> 01:05:15,919
Speaker 1: tell you maybe it's not as bad as it looked

1194
01:05:15,960 --> 01:05:16,720
Speaker 1: in twenty.

1195
01:05:16,400 --> 01:05:19,600
Speaker 2: Four or or you know, in New Jersey.

1196
01:05:20,120 --> 01:05:22,000
Speaker 1: In New Jersey, because I feel like New Jersey's I

1197
01:05:22,000 --> 01:05:23,560
Speaker 1: think there's going to be more to learn from New

1198
01:05:23,640 --> 01:05:28,600
Speaker 1: Jersey about the future of that than there is in Virginia.

1199
01:05:28,680 --> 01:05:32,600
Speaker 2: I would look at some of those towns where it'll

1200
01:05:32,640 --> 01:05:34,439
Speaker 2: be hard to tell how much of that has turned

1201
01:05:34,480 --> 01:05:38,360
Speaker 2: out and how much of it is persuasion. You know,

1202
01:05:38,360 --> 01:05:40,920
Speaker 2: you had all these Hispanic heavy towns where there were

1203
01:05:40,960 --> 01:05:44,400
Speaker 2: these massive slims or Trump I mean twenty thirty points,

1204
01:05:44,400 --> 01:05:47,840
Speaker 2: so you know, look at that and see, I think

1205
01:05:47,840 --> 01:05:53,600
Speaker 2: it'll be less, you know, relative to you know, previous patterns.

1206
01:05:54,200 --> 01:05:55,920
Speaker 2: But I think that, in other words, I'll probably do

1207
01:05:56,280 --> 01:05:59,240
Speaker 2: better in these towns. But how much and what is

1208
01:05:59,240 --> 01:06:02,360
Speaker 2: that attributable? Are we really reaching these voters. We're just

1209
01:06:02,360 --> 01:06:06,120
Speaker 2: different voters showing up, you know. And I think the

1210
01:06:06,240 --> 01:06:09,480
Speaker 2: closer it is, I think the more you'll you'll find

1211
01:06:09,480 --> 01:06:13,120
Speaker 2: an influence of the vote in those in those towns, right,

1212
01:06:13,160 --> 01:06:16,320
Speaker 2: not in the affluent, college educated suburbs, but more of

1213
01:06:16,320 --> 01:06:19,760
Speaker 2: the working class. And I'm frequently a Spanic heavy towns.

1214
01:06:19,800 --> 01:06:20,520
Speaker 2: That's what I'm got that.

1215
01:06:21,840 --> 01:06:24,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's going to be. It's there's only

1216
01:06:25,000 --> 01:06:27,560
Speaker 1: been one poll that showed that one where supposedly Trump

1217
01:06:27,560 --> 01:06:30,240
Speaker 1: has a higher approval rating than Governor Murphy, which some

1218
01:06:30,240 --> 01:06:33,880
Speaker 1: people might be surprised at. But he is at the

1219
01:06:33,960 --> 01:06:36,640
Speaker 1: end of a second term. People wear out, you know,

1220
01:06:37,080 --> 01:06:39,800
Speaker 1: and we've seen that there is some shift going on

1221
01:06:39,880 --> 01:06:42,760
Speaker 1: in New Jersey that New Jersey seems to be moving

1222
01:06:43,080 --> 01:06:45,520
Speaker 1: opposite of the where the rest of their blue state

1223
01:06:45,560 --> 01:06:46,439
Speaker 1: colleagues have been going.

1224
01:06:48,120 --> 01:06:50,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can look. I'm old enough, Chuck to remember

1225
01:06:50,080 --> 01:06:52,040
Speaker 2: when New Jersey was thought of as a swimstay.

1226
01:06:52,200 --> 01:07:00,800
Speaker 1: So, you know, Illinois, California, New Jersey, we're all in

1227
01:07:00,840 --> 01:07:05,040
Speaker 1: the battleground map in ninety two. All right, and Bill

1228
01:07:05,040 --> 01:07:06,880
Speaker 1: Clinton put them all away pretty quickly.

1229
01:07:07,800 --> 01:07:10,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, Bill, we need you back, Baby, we need you back.

1230
01:07:10,440 --> 01:07:13,880
Speaker 1: Well, it's funny you say that. The Clinton brand it,

1231
01:07:15,080 --> 01:07:17,439
Speaker 1: you know, it's funny how it goes back and forth.

1232
01:07:17,440 --> 01:07:20,080
Speaker 1: Ten years ago. I always thought Hillary Clinton history will

1233
01:07:20,080 --> 01:07:22,920
Speaker 1: treat Hillary Clinton kinder than Bill Clinton. But well, if

1234
01:07:22,960 --> 01:07:23,960
Speaker 1: I changed my mind on that.

1235
01:07:24,000 --> 01:07:29,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd say, yep, yep, yep Hillary.

1236
01:07:30,600 --> 01:07:33,400
Speaker 1: Is Joe Biden going to go down the Carter road

1237
01:07:33,560 --> 01:07:35,160
Speaker 1: for the Democrats? Is he going to be the name

1238
01:07:35,200 --> 01:07:38,480
Speaker 1: that that does not be spoken at Democratic conventions for

1239
01:07:38,480 --> 01:07:39,160
Speaker 1: about a decade.

1240
01:07:40,080 --> 01:07:42,360
Speaker 2: I would say, they'll try not to talk about him.

1241
01:07:42,400 --> 01:07:44,400
Speaker 2: But the problem is that it's going to be this

1242
01:07:44,480 --> 01:07:47,680
Speaker 2: sort of live political issue because people are going to

1243
01:07:47,760 --> 01:07:51,240
Speaker 2: keep getting asked about Well, didn't you realize, you know,

1244
01:07:51,280 --> 01:07:53,200
Speaker 2: you could barely walk and talk at the same time.

1245
01:07:53,360 --> 01:07:55,520
Speaker 2: Weren't you aware of this? If so, why didn't you

1246
01:07:55,560 --> 01:07:59,520
Speaker 2: say something? I think that will put pressure on maybe

1247
01:07:59,560 --> 01:08:02,160
Speaker 2: someone you you talked about this earlier, to break out

1248
01:08:02,160 --> 01:08:05,440
Speaker 2: of the pack and start criticizing.

1249
01:08:04,480 --> 01:08:10,240
Speaker 1: There's a developing attempt to do that, right Rocanna Others,

1250
01:08:10,320 --> 01:08:13,440
Speaker 1: Yeah I was wrong or clearly we should have done something,

1251
01:08:13,560 --> 01:08:16,479
Speaker 1: something should have been said sooner. Whatever it is, you

1252
01:08:16,520 --> 01:08:17,800
Speaker 1: think that's going to be enough, or you think you

1253
01:08:17,840 --> 01:08:19,519
Speaker 1: have to be even even more.

1254
01:08:19,920 --> 01:08:22,320
Speaker 2: I'd say I'd put it in the even more category.

1255
01:08:22,840 --> 01:08:24,240
Speaker 1: So that though.

1256
01:08:25,640 --> 01:08:30,320
Speaker 2: Well, not only you do know bull throatedly say I

1257
01:08:30,320 --> 01:08:32,120
Speaker 2: mean I know, if you're willing to say I knew

1258
01:08:32,120 --> 01:08:33,960
Speaker 2: and I just didn't say, I mean, that's that's a

1259
01:08:34,000 --> 01:08:36,920
Speaker 2: hard thing to I mean, I lie. So people want

1260
01:08:36,920 --> 01:08:38,599
Speaker 2: to avoid saying that, but we can't.

1261
01:08:38,640 --> 01:08:41,639
Speaker 1: We say, look, I thought Trump was crazy. I'd rather

1262
01:08:41,760 --> 01:08:43,439
Speaker 1: take you know, a guy that might be in a

1263
01:08:43,439 --> 01:08:44,439
Speaker 1: wheelchair over Trump.

1264
01:08:45,320 --> 01:08:48,439
Speaker 2: Well, that can't say that. But is that how convincing

1265
01:08:48,560 --> 01:08:50,760
Speaker 2: is that? If I'm like an ordinary voter, It's like,

1266
01:08:50,840 --> 01:08:52,519
Speaker 2: wait a minute, you wanted to see now a guy

1267
01:08:52,520 --> 01:08:55,559
Speaker 2: in a wheelchair, and you were you were like putting

1268
01:08:55,600 --> 01:08:57,960
Speaker 2: your thumb on the scales for that. I don't think so.

1269
01:08:57,960 --> 01:09:00,360
Speaker 2: So I don't think that's so convincing. I think you

1270
01:09:00,479 --> 01:09:03,360
Speaker 2: might want to twin that. Whatever distance he put on

1271
01:09:03,400 --> 01:09:08,480
Speaker 2: the cognitive decline issue with basically being very you know, aggressive,

1272
01:09:08,520 --> 01:09:11,240
Speaker 2: if not brutal about some of the mistakes of the

1273
01:09:11,320 --> 01:09:14,200
Speaker 2: Vibe administration. It's interesting immigration and some other.

1274
01:09:14,800 --> 01:09:17,719
Speaker 1: I think this almost makes Pete Buddha Juju's campaign almost

1275
01:09:17,760 --> 01:09:21,719
Speaker 1: impossible to succeed. I think being a Biden cabinet member

1276
01:09:21,760 --> 01:09:23,799
Speaker 1: is going to agree, I agree overcome.

1277
01:09:23,880 --> 01:09:25,720
Speaker 2: I said that in something I wrote the other day.

1278
01:09:25,760 --> 01:09:29,160
Speaker 2: I think Buddha Jad's very smart guy, you know, certainly

1279
01:09:29,200 --> 01:09:31,600
Speaker 2: good talker. But yeah, I just think it's like an

1280
01:09:31,640 --> 01:09:33,960
Speaker 2: albatross around is not. I don't think people are going

1281
01:09:34,000 --> 01:09:34,320
Speaker 2: to i.

1282
01:09:34,240 --> 01:09:37,559
Speaker 1: Mean talk about irony for the party. He may be

1283
01:09:37,560 --> 01:09:39,120
Speaker 1: their best pure spokesperson.

1284
01:09:39,880 --> 01:09:42,320
Speaker 2: Yeah this is, and yet he's got.

1285
01:09:42,160 --> 01:09:44,920
Speaker 1: This tarnish to him. And I do think that, I mean,

1286
01:09:46,040 --> 01:09:49,840
Speaker 1: you were there, you know, there's no you can't just

1287
01:09:49,880 --> 01:09:52,120
Speaker 1: say well, they wouldn't let me see him, which by

1288
01:09:52,120 --> 01:09:55,760
Speaker 1: the way, was probably true, right, but that isn't going

1289
01:09:55,800 --> 01:09:57,559
Speaker 1: to be an acceptable answer to the point.

1290
01:09:57,680 --> 01:09:59,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, no, I toy with the idea, Chuck, that

1291
01:09:59,760 --> 01:10:03,240
Speaker 2: we're still not really pricing it how bad this is

1292
01:10:03,280 --> 01:10:07,840
Speaker 2: for Democrats, that whole skinned of not being covering up

1293
01:10:07,920 --> 01:10:12,600
Speaker 2: basically that this guy was practically not there for the

1294
01:10:12,800 --> 01:10:15,719
Speaker 2: chunking this present. That's a big deal. You know, people

1295
01:10:15,760 --> 01:10:20,519
Speaker 2: may hate Trump, but you know, people think he's he's

1296
01:10:20,600 --> 01:10:22,599
Speaker 2: up to the he's up to the job, whatever job

1297
01:10:22,640 --> 01:10:25,280
Speaker 2: he's doing, right, They don't think like, what were you

1298
01:10:25,320 --> 01:10:28,160
Speaker 2: guys thinking, you know, for two or three years. I mean,

1299
01:10:28,200 --> 01:10:30,840
Speaker 2: I just think it's it's all these books that are

1300
01:10:30,880 --> 01:10:33,160
Speaker 2: coming out are just more and more documenting it, and

1301
01:10:33,200 --> 01:10:36,360
Speaker 2: it keeps on being a point of discussion and dissection,

1302
01:10:37,120 --> 01:10:39,920
Speaker 2: and more will come out about how much people covered up.

1303
01:10:41,120 --> 01:10:43,360
Speaker 1: I think though, that what it really does and why

1304
01:10:43,360 --> 01:10:45,800
Speaker 1: I think it's more damaging than the party realizes, is

1305
01:10:45,800 --> 01:10:50,720
Speaker 1: that it puts an exclamation point on the aging leadership issue.

1306
01:10:51,240 --> 01:10:54,320
Speaker 1: That is all. I mean, Nancy Pelosi is still there,

1307
01:10:54,520 --> 01:10:58,240
Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer is near ab still still taking, still doing

1308
01:10:58,280 --> 01:11:02,880
Speaker 1: this stuff, and so so I mean, logically, who does

1309
01:11:02,960 --> 01:11:05,000
Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer think he is to tell Joe Biden he's

1310
01:11:05,040 --> 01:11:08,719
Speaker 1: not he should pass the baton, if he won't pass

1311
01:11:08,760 --> 01:11:11,800
Speaker 1: the baton, if Naty Celosi won't walk away. You know,

1312
01:11:12,920 --> 01:11:15,120
Speaker 1: this was an entire party that seemed to be more

1313
01:11:15,200 --> 01:11:19,760
Speaker 1: concerned about who's in charge rather than whether he.

1314
01:11:19,800 --> 01:11:22,640
Speaker 2: Should and it just undercuts any attempt to be the

1315
01:11:22,680 --> 01:11:23,519
Speaker 2: party of change.

1316
01:11:24,160 --> 01:11:28,600
Speaker 1: And really the thing, well, some Democrats look at you

1317
01:11:28,640 --> 01:11:31,160
Speaker 1: and say you're always doom and gloom. Is there anything

1318
01:11:31,200 --> 01:11:33,120
Speaker 1: that's not doom and gloom about the party that you

1319
01:11:33,520 --> 01:11:34,120
Speaker 1: would highlight.

1320
01:11:34,560 --> 01:11:36,559
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I think that there are some people

1321
01:11:37,240 --> 01:11:40,439
Speaker 2: toying with the idea of breaking from the pack, and

1322
01:11:40,479 --> 01:11:43,519
Speaker 2: I think there's certainly more of a realization in the

1323
01:11:43,520 --> 01:11:46,160
Speaker 2: aftermath of the election that there are fundamental problems with

1324
01:11:46,240 --> 01:11:49,160
Speaker 2: the Democrats and their brand that we should try to

1325
01:11:49,200 --> 01:11:51,519
Speaker 2: do something about. I don't think there quite know what

1326
01:11:51,640 --> 01:11:52,920
Speaker 2: to do, and I don't think they have the guts

1327
01:11:53,000 --> 01:11:54,960
Speaker 2: right now to maybe do it, but at least there's

1328
01:11:55,000 --> 01:12:00,400
Speaker 2: that realization. The second thing, of course, is Trump. You know, right,

1329
01:12:00,680 --> 01:12:03,000
Speaker 2: this is this administration that doesn't know what it's doing.

1330
01:12:03,080 --> 01:12:05,880
Speaker 2: They may, in fact, really crash the economy. Voters may

1331
01:12:05,880 --> 01:12:09,439
Speaker 2: in fact, you know, be responding to that as late

1332
01:12:09,479 --> 01:12:10,960
Speaker 2: as the twenty twenty eight cycles.

1333
01:12:11,080 --> 01:12:14,040
Speaker 1: Except that's exactly what UK voters did it Literally, the

1334
01:12:14,080 --> 01:12:16,400
Speaker 1: Conservatives had to crash the economy for labor.

1335
01:12:16,200 --> 01:12:19,120
Speaker 2: To win, right right, Yeah, So I mean, I don't

1336
01:12:19,160 --> 01:12:21,400
Speaker 2: know if they're not happy with labor now for our country,

1337
01:12:21,479 --> 01:12:25,599
Speaker 2: but raw political terms for the Democrats, the worse the

1338
01:12:25,640 --> 01:12:29,439
Speaker 2: Trump administration is, particularly in economic terms, the better it's

1339
01:12:29,479 --> 01:12:31,280
Speaker 2: going to be for them. So that would be hopeful

1340
01:12:31,320 --> 01:12:34,479
Speaker 2: for them getting back into power. But I think again,

1341
01:12:34,520 --> 01:12:36,200
Speaker 2: from the standpoint of the country and the kind of

1342
01:12:36,200 --> 01:12:38,680
Speaker 2: governance we need, I don't think that's what Streame does.

1343
01:12:39,000 --> 01:12:41,080
Speaker 1: So I you know, this is why I continue to

1344
01:12:41,120 --> 01:12:43,439
Speaker 1: be I continue to assume we're going to have a

1345
01:12:43,520 --> 01:12:46,800
Speaker 1: viable independent or third party challenge in twenty eight because

1346
01:12:46,840 --> 01:12:47,120
Speaker 1: of this.

1347
01:12:47,600 --> 01:12:50,519
Speaker 2: There's just that there's Okay, let me ask you a question,

1348
01:12:50,600 --> 01:12:51,559
Speaker 2: who do you think it would be?

1349
01:12:51,960 --> 01:12:54,160
Speaker 1: And that's the issue is that there's no obvious person.

1350
01:12:54,200 --> 01:12:57,120
Speaker 1: I mean, I was a Bill mcgraven guy the last cycle.

1351
01:12:57,760 --> 01:12:59,800
Speaker 1: I do think a military veteran is the way to go.

1352
01:13:00,439 --> 01:13:03,759
Speaker 1: So the and the messaging can't be I'm for something.

1353
01:13:03,800 --> 01:13:06,400
Speaker 1: It's these guys are broken. The two parties need to

1354
01:13:06,439 --> 01:13:09,479
Speaker 1: time out. Let's let's you know, I'm here to like

1355
01:13:09,720 --> 01:13:12,960
Speaker 1: get to solve problems again, right yeah, yeah, sort of.

1356
01:13:13,040 --> 01:13:15,920
Speaker 1: You know. I think it's the but the and that

1357
01:13:15,920 --> 01:13:18,200
Speaker 1: that's why it feels like a military guy has to

1358
01:13:18,240 --> 01:13:21,840
Speaker 1: be that kind of messenger. But there's no obvious person, right,

1359
01:13:21,960 --> 01:13:24,720
Speaker 1: there is, you know, And I think the only thing

1360
01:13:24,720 --> 01:13:27,200
Speaker 1: I I hold out hope for is that in this

1361
01:13:27,280 --> 01:13:30,639
Speaker 1: current way that the media works, you can go from

1362
01:13:30,680 --> 01:13:32,120
Speaker 1: nobody to somebody very quickly.

1363
01:13:32,320 --> 01:13:32,400
Speaker 2: Right.

1364
01:13:32,479 --> 01:13:35,040
Speaker 1: That's so that there are there is an opportunity for

1365
01:13:35,080 --> 01:13:39,680
Speaker 1: people that we've never talked about right now throughout this nobody.

1366
01:13:39,680 --> 01:13:42,080
Speaker 1: In fact, I'd be willing to bet that the next

1367
01:13:42,120 --> 01:13:45,719
Speaker 1: Democratic nominee perhaps or the next major player in presidential

1368
01:13:45,720 --> 01:13:48,320
Speaker 1: politics and somebody you and I haven't mentioned yet, because

1369
01:13:48,360 --> 01:13:50,519
Speaker 1: I think new is going to be one of the

1370
01:13:50,520 --> 01:13:53,960
Speaker 1: most important things for any candidate to have come twenty.

1371
01:13:54,320 --> 01:13:56,680
Speaker 2: I don't disagree with that. It's it's it's used to

1372
01:13:56,680 --> 01:13:59,479
Speaker 2: say a known unknown and we'll see, right.

1373
01:13:59,520 --> 01:14:02,080
Speaker 1: Look, I used Pete Buotages as an example, who in

1374
01:14:02,120 --> 01:14:04,640
Speaker 1: twenty seventeen thought the mayor of South Bend was going

1375
01:14:04,680 --> 01:14:06,759
Speaker 1: to be a major player in the Democrat.

1376
01:14:06,479 --> 01:14:08,679
Speaker 2: I confess I did not know that, right.

1377
01:14:09,000 --> 01:14:12,080
Speaker 1: So, but then again I don't know. Is it the

1378
01:14:12,120 --> 01:14:16,320
Speaker 1: mayor of Ralla, Missouri? Right? Is it the mayor of Orum, Utah?

1379
01:14:16,400 --> 01:14:16,960
Speaker 1: We'll see.

1380
01:14:17,360 --> 01:14:18,880
Speaker 2: Okay, Well, let's keep our eyes open.

1381
01:14:20,520 --> 01:14:22,320
Speaker 1: Hey, Roy, what are you working on next? You got

1382
01:14:22,320 --> 01:14:23,800
Speaker 1: to book a new book in the works.

1383
01:14:24,000 --> 01:14:26,120
Speaker 2: I do not have a new block. One thing I'm

1384
01:14:26,479 --> 01:14:28,639
Speaker 2: you know people might find interesting is I'm just about

1385
01:14:28,640 --> 01:14:31,280
Speaker 2: to put out a report with my friend Bick Kallenberg

1386
01:14:31,800 --> 01:14:36,599
Speaker 2: on the legacy of Bobby Kennedy. It's called Bobby Kennedy

1387
01:14:36,640 --> 01:14:39,320
Speaker 2: Liberal Patriot. Now what political leader has been learned from

1388
01:14:39,320 --> 01:14:42,439
Speaker 2: Bobby Kennedy today? And it's an examination of his career

1389
01:14:43,040 --> 01:14:47,000
Speaker 2: and his particular interesting sort of synthesis of liberal and

1390
01:14:47,040 --> 01:14:49,800
Speaker 2: conservative politics that appealed to both black and white working

1391
01:14:49,840 --> 01:14:52,680
Speaker 2: class voters and is willing you know, so what he

1392
01:14:52,840 --> 01:14:55,479
Speaker 2: thought being a Democrat was all about back in the day.

1393
01:14:56,640 --> 01:14:58,599
Speaker 2: And I think it's you know, there's a lot there

1394
01:14:58,640 --> 01:15:01,439
Speaker 2: for people to think about. He's a potential model for

1395
01:15:01,520 --> 01:15:05,040
Speaker 2: a different kind of politics if someone wanted to pursue it.

1396
01:15:05,400 --> 01:15:08,080
Speaker 2: So it's a pretty substantial report and that should be

1397
01:15:08,160 --> 01:15:12,320
Speaker 2: coming out soon, both covering his career and the relevance

1398
01:15:12,320 --> 01:15:13,200
Speaker 2: were to them.

1399
01:15:13,479 --> 01:15:15,600
Speaker 1: You know, It's funny that that sixty eight campaign that

1400
01:15:15,680 --> 01:15:18,559
Speaker 1: a lot of Democrats almost still see today is that

1401
01:15:19,320 --> 01:15:22,759
Speaker 1: he straddled He straddled the model, right. He was straddling

1402
01:15:22,800 --> 01:15:26,559
Speaker 1: all the different constituencies, a growing African American constituency, the

1403
01:15:26,600 --> 01:15:30,280
Speaker 1: working class that was skeptical of Democrats doing like he

1404
01:15:30,320 --> 01:15:35,760
Speaker 1: had straddled this fence. I don't you know, I I

1405
01:15:35,840 --> 01:15:38,000
Speaker 1: hear this all the time. Is there something to learn.

1406
01:15:38,040 --> 01:15:42,040
Speaker 1: But I you know, I wonder if it just was

1407
01:15:42,080 --> 01:15:44,080
Speaker 1: the moment and that moment is gone.

1408
01:15:44,120 --> 01:15:47,240
Speaker 2: Well, could be, brother, could be anyway, check out the report.

1409
01:15:47,280 --> 01:15:48,040
Speaker 2: See what you think.

1410
01:15:48,560 --> 01:15:51,559
Speaker 1: I will gobble it up like everything you write. Okay,

1411
01:15:52,040 --> 01:15:54,600
Speaker 1: So there you go, Roy, great to talk with you.

1412
01:15:55,080 --> 01:15:55,679
Speaker 2: It's good fun.

1413
01:16:02,400 --> 01:16:04,679
Speaker 1: Well, I hope you enjoyed that conversation. And to pick

1414
01:16:04,800 --> 01:16:09,839
Speaker 1: up on this sort of ideological shift that I definitely

1415
01:16:09,880 --> 01:16:13,760
Speaker 1: think to share a is advocating. It's worth noting that

1416
01:16:13,840 --> 01:16:16,519
Speaker 1: last week this is another trend we saw when you

1417
01:16:16,600 --> 01:16:21,280
Speaker 1: have progressive versus I guess call it mainstream pragmatic. However,

1418
01:16:21,320 --> 01:16:23,200
Speaker 1: you want to decide on how you want to call

1419
01:16:23,240 --> 01:16:26,880
Speaker 1: the non progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Another win

1420
01:16:27,200 --> 01:16:29,320
Speaker 1: in a mayor's race, and oh, by the way, it

1421
01:16:29,360 --> 01:16:33,799
Speaker 1: also feeds into the progressive incumbent mayor of Pittsburgh loss

1422
01:16:33,840 --> 01:16:41,000
Speaker 1: to a more mainstream Democratic candidate, again more pragmatic. I

1423
01:16:41,040 --> 01:16:43,759
Speaker 1: know that sounds like I'm endorsing the guy by calling

1424
01:16:43,840 --> 01:16:47,680
Speaker 1: you know, if you call somebody pragmatic, that's a net positive.

1425
01:16:48,000 --> 01:16:51,720
Speaker 1: But again, the non progressive wing of the party, if

1426
01:16:51,760 --> 01:16:54,920
Speaker 1: you will a win there, right, it matches what we

1427
01:16:54,960 --> 01:16:57,600
Speaker 1: saw in San Francisco, and we're sort of seeing and

1428
01:16:57,680 --> 01:16:59,679
Speaker 1: I think you're going to see this move in the cities.

1429
01:16:59,720 --> 01:17:02,840
Speaker 1: Andrew Cuomo is winning not because of his lack of

1430
01:17:02,840 --> 01:17:05,080
Speaker 1: who he is, but because he's not a progressive, right

1431
01:17:05,080 --> 01:17:08,200
Speaker 1: it's who he isn't And so you're starting to see

1432
01:17:08,439 --> 01:17:12,760
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party sort of flex its muscles against progressives

1433
01:17:12,800 --> 01:17:17,479
Speaker 1: in the cities. Right city governance, progressive governance definitely is

1434
01:17:18,040 --> 01:17:22,640
Speaker 1: become unpopular in major cities, and Democrats are sort of

1435
01:17:23,640 --> 01:17:26,320
Speaker 1: self policing here in these primaries. And what we saw

1436
01:17:26,320 --> 01:17:30,920
Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh, I think is another example of this. One

1437
01:17:30,960 --> 01:17:35,080
Speaker 1: other twenty twenty six note that I wanted to make

1438
01:17:35,080 --> 01:17:39,040
Speaker 1: sure to flag was I've been spending a lot of

1439
01:17:39,040 --> 01:17:40,759
Speaker 1: time telling you about what's going on in that Texas

1440
01:17:40,760 --> 01:17:44,120
Speaker 1: Senate race, because that could be the lynchpin of whether

1441
01:17:44,280 --> 01:17:47,559
Speaker 1: the Senate map becomes competitive between the two parties. Right,

1442
01:17:47,600 --> 01:17:51,120
Speaker 1: if John Cornyn's not the Republican nominee, that changes a

1443
01:17:51,200 --> 01:17:54,559
Speaker 1: lot of the calculus about the Republican's ability to hold

1444
01:17:54,560 --> 01:17:59,000
Speaker 1: the Senate. Well, I have, for I have sort of

1445
01:17:59,400 --> 01:18:04,240
Speaker 1: wondered whether Cornyn would either run as an independent sort

1446
01:18:04,240 --> 01:18:06,760
Speaker 1: of do a Lisa Murkowski promised to cauc us with

1447
01:18:06,800 --> 01:18:10,320
Speaker 1: the Republicans, but not run in a Republican primary. Well,

1448
01:18:10,400 --> 01:18:12,559
Speaker 1: right now, that is not the path he's taking. He

1449
01:18:12,600 --> 01:18:15,599
Speaker 1: has hired Chris Losovita. And if you know who Chris

1450
01:18:15,600 --> 01:18:18,000
Speaker 1: Losovita is then I don't, then you know this is

1451
01:18:18,000 --> 01:18:20,600
Speaker 1: a pretty big deal. Chris Losovita was one of the

1452
01:18:20,640 --> 01:18:25,200
Speaker 1: two architects of Trump's successful twenty twenty four campaign. He

1453
01:18:25,280 --> 01:18:28,400
Speaker 1: really is a Virginia based operative. He's had a lot

1454
01:18:28,400 --> 01:18:31,080
Speaker 1: of success in Virginia. He's lost his share of racist too,

1455
01:18:31,120 --> 01:18:35,840
Speaker 1: Don't get me wrong. He's considered basically a fix it

1456
01:18:36,000 --> 01:18:39,080
Speaker 1: campaign guy. You bring in las Avita to fix a campaign,

1457
01:18:39,160 --> 01:18:42,760
Speaker 1: to retool a campaign. He's been brought into rescue campaigns

1458
01:18:42,800 --> 01:18:45,679
Speaker 1: that were losing. Pat Roberts comes to mind in twenty fourteen.

1459
01:18:45,960 --> 01:18:49,160
Speaker 1: He comes in and within a month was able to

1460
01:18:49,200 --> 01:18:51,559
Speaker 1: get the campaign back together. And he's been brought in

1461
01:18:52,120 --> 01:18:56,519
Speaker 1: before on reclamation projects and they haven't worked. But lot,

1462
01:18:58,000 --> 01:19:01,519
Speaker 1: if I will say this, Ken Paxton has not faced

1463
01:19:01,600 --> 01:19:06,920
Speaker 1: the wrath of a really tough political campaign. I promise

1464
01:19:06,960 --> 01:19:09,679
Speaker 1: you now, if he can survive a Chris Losovita led

1465
01:19:09,760 --> 01:19:13,800
Speaker 1: John Cornyn campaign against Ken Paxton, who's shall we say

1466
01:19:13,840 --> 01:19:16,840
Speaker 1: ethically challenged there as the attorney general of the state

1467
01:19:16,880 --> 01:19:22,120
Speaker 1: of Texas. If Paxton survives that, then he's likely to

1468
01:19:22,200 --> 01:19:26,599
Speaker 1: survive and end up a US senator. But I will

1469
01:19:26,600 --> 01:19:31,599
Speaker 1: say this, we are about to see a next level

1470
01:19:32,200 --> 01:19:35,920
Speaker 1: of negativity in a Republican primary, the likes of which

1471
01:19:36,400 --> 01:19:38,800
Speaker 1: only in Texas would you see something like this, where

1472
01:19:38,840 --> 01:19:41,920
Speaker 1: the belief is it's a one party state and therefore

1473
01:19:42,040 --> 01:19:44,639
Speaker 1: the primary is everything. I'm not so convinced to that,

1474
01:19:45,600 --> 01:19:47,760
Speaker 1: And in fact, one other wildcard in all this could

1475
01:19:47,760 --> 01:19:50,599
Speaker 1: be if a third candidate jumps in and we get

1476
01:19:50,640 --> 01:19:54,160
Speaker 1: basically two rounds of Paxton v. Cornet, because neither candidate

1477
01:19:54,160 --> 01:19:57,640
Speaker 1: can get to fifty percent, and that is another possibility,

1478
01:19:57,720 --> 01:20:01,759
Speaker 1: draining the eventual winner of of massive amounts of cash,

1479
01:20:02,280 --> 01:20:05,920
Speaker 1: potentially leading if it's a Colin al Read sitting out

1480
01:20:05,960 --> 01:20:09,320
Speaker 1: there Democratic nomine running a second time, potentially sitting out

1481
01:20:09,360 --> 01:20:12,439
Speaker 1: there as a viable candidate. But the hiring of las

1482
01:20:12,520 --> 01:20:16,760
Speaker 1: Aveda by Cornyn. I'm not saying Los A Veta would

1483
01:20:16,800 --> 01:20:19,200
Speaker 1: do this, if Trump's wouldn't do this, if Trump said

1484
01:20:19,240 --> 01:20:22,559
Speaker 1: don't do it. So my guess is I'm not going

1485
01:20:22,600 --> 01:20:25,080
Speaker 1: to sit here. I think knowing Chris the way I

1486
01:20:25,120 --> 01:20:27,639
Speaker 1: know him, he might be more inclined to do something

1487
01:20:27,640 --> 01:20:29,360
Speaker 1: if Trump told him not to do it, because he's

1488
01:20:29,400 --> 01:20:33,200
Speaker 1: kind of that, he is that streak in him. But

1489
01:20:33,640 --> 01:20:37,559
Speaker 1: I really don't think if Lasavina knew that Trump was

1490
01:20:37,680 --> 01:20:40,160
Speaker 1: against Cornn, I don't know if he does this. And

1491
01:20:40,200 --> 01:20:42,280
Speaker 1: I do think Trump's kind of neutral in this race.

1492
01:20:43,320 --> 01:20:46,400
Speaker 1: Even though MAGA in Texas may be inclined to be

1493
01:20:46,479 --> 01:20:49,479
Speaker 1: more pro paxtant, I don't think Trump himself is as

1494
01:20:49,479 --> 01:20:52,679
Speaker 1: pro paxton as perhaps Maga might be. So just something

1495
01:20:52,720 --> 01:20:57,400
Speaker 1: to watch for them, all right. I just want to

1496
01:20:57,400 --> 01:20:59,559
Speaker 1: have I'm going to do something that my friend Tony

1497
01:20:59,600 --> 01:21:03,719
Speaker 1: krn high Or does sometimes, and I want to adopt

1498
01:21:03,720 --> 01:21:07,479
Speaker 1: it here. If you're a traffic expert and you live

1499
01:21:07,600 --> 01:21:10,240
Speaker 1: in and around Washington, DC, I would love for you

1500
01:21:10,280 --> 01:21:13,320
Speaker 1: to write into me and explain to me the decision

1501
01:21:14,040 --> 01:21:16,839
Speaker 1: by the district and the Nationals to create new traffic

1502
01:21:16,880 --> 01:21:20,800
Speaker 1: patterns to exit Nationals Park. I'm not one hundred percent

1503
01:21:20,880 --> 01:21:23,640
Speaker 1: against what they've tried to do. For those of you

1504
01:21:23,680 --> 01:21:26,240
Speaker 1: that care, they end up blocking off you can't you

1505
01:21:26,280 --> 01:21:29,360
Speaker 1: can't get on three ninety five, just shooting up South

1506
01:21:29,439 --> 01:21:31,639
Speaker 1: Capitol Street. If you're on one side of the stadium,

1507
01:21:31,680 --> 01:21:34,760
Speaker 1: they sort of force you to go over the Anacostia,

1508
01:21:34,880 --> 01:21:37,760
Speaker 1: go around and get on six ninety five to go

1509
01:21:37,840 --> 01:21:40,280
Speaker 1: back to three ninety five that way, or you could

1510
01:21:40,320 --> 01:21:42,040
Speaker 1: go over the Wilson Bridge. And I know I'm doing

1511
01:21:42,280 --> 01:21:44,200
Speaker 1: really hyper local, but that's why I did it. Here

1512
01:21:44,240 --> 01:21:46,519
Speaker 1: at the end of the podcast, I know my true

1513
01:21:46,520 --> 01:21:52,280
Speaker 1: blue DC folks are listening again in theory, I kind

1514
01:21:52,280 --> 01:21:54,679
Speaker 1: of get what you're trying to do with the traffic pattern,

1515
01:21:55,439 --> 01:21:58,479
Speaker 1: but there are some fixes that could be done, and

1516
01:21:58,760 --> 01:22:01,639
Speaker 1: if you're gonna do it, there's so light cycles when

1517
01:22:01,640 --> 01:22:03,600
Speaker 1: you're trying to get on to six ninety five that

1518
01:22:03,640 --> 01:22:05,880
Speaker 1: could be improved. I'd love for you to do that,

1519
01:22:06,120 --> 01:22:09,880
Speaker 1: but please explain it to me that this is that

1520
01:22:09,880 --> 01:22:13,679
Speaker 1: that there is what instigated this decision to try to

1521
01:22:13,920 --> 01:22:17,360
Speaker 1: create a brand new traffic pattern in exiting the stadium

1522
01:22:17,360 --> 01:22:21,799
Speaker 1: where you cannot use South Capitol Street going towards the city,

1523
01:22:21,840 --> 01:22:25,320
Speaker 1: that you can only use South Capital exiting the city

1524
01:22:25,680 --> 01:22:29,400
Speaker 1: during NATS games? Are you doing this during DC Defenders games?

1525
01:22:29,439 --> 01:22:31,280
Speaker 1: You're going to do this during DC United games?

1526
01:22:31,280 --> 01:22:31,479
Speaker 2: Too?

1527
01:22:31,800 --> 01:22:34,320
Speaker 1: Again, I got I know, I've got the type of

1528
01:22:34,360 --> 01:22:37,720
Speaker 1: listeners that are probably some of you may work in

1529
01:22:37,760 --> 01:22:41,599
Speaker 1: the departments that help make these decisions, so explain it

1530
01:22:41,600 --> 01:22:43,759
Speaker 1: to me. I'm not I'm not trying to be mister

1531
01:22:43,800 --> 01:22:48,240
Speaker 1: outrage guy about this yet. I'm mister annoyed guy about it,

1532
01:22:49,200 --> 01:22:51,720
Speaker 1: and i'd love to have. Like I said, I think

1533
01:22:51,800 --> 01:22:54,120
Speaker 1: I get what you're trying to do, but I'd like

1534
01:22:54,640 --> 01:22:59,120
Speaker 1: to use the power of this podcast listening audience to

1535
01:22:59,240 --> 01:23:02,519
Speaker 1: explain it to me, and I will share. I will

1536
01:23:02,520 --> 01:23:05,320
Speaker 1: share the answer with those of you that are listening.

1537
01:23:05,360 --> 01:23:07,920
Speaker 1: So with that, I hope you enjoy the rest of

1538
01:23:07,960 --> 01:23:11,160
Speaker 1: your Memorial Day weekend and I'll see you when I

1539
01:23:11,280 --> 01:23:13,040
Speaker 1: upload again in forty eight hours.