Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. A single best idea.
Speaker 1: It was a terrific Monday. Monday in July. You know,
Speaker 1: you're really not focused like you got to get you
Speaker 1: got to get the Tuesday, to get the week started.
Speaker 1: Our team put together a great set of conversations to
Speaker 1: get you to your Tuesday so you can get your
Speaker 1: week started. Real high point. Elaine Ray joined us. She's
Speaker 1: a giant in European economics. Was a really good and
Speaker 1: thoughtful discussion on what she thinks Europe needs to do
Speaker 1: to get their act together. It was very academic, very highbrow,
Speaker 1: but that was wonderful. And then we had the lowbrow
Speaker 1: as well. Isabelle Lee of Bloomberg News with a breaking
Speaker 1: story the Compendium of Crypto at one hundred and eighteen
Speaker 1: thousand bitcoin rather at one hundred and eighteen thousand and
Speaker 1: whither from here. Wrapped around that was equities, bonds, currencies
Speaker 1: and commodities and special guests in from Hong Kong. I
Speaker 1: love saying this. With the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking
Speaker 1: Corporation HSBC, is there giant on semiconductor analysis. Here is
Speaker 1: Frank Lee of HSBC.
Speaker 2: I think it is an issue that people talk about,
Speaker 2: but we haven't really seen that really materialize yet. I
Speaker 2: do think the infrastructure build will continue. I think everybody
Speaker 2: recognizes the importance of AI right now and why it's
Speaker 2: so important to invest it in. You know, for example,
Speaker 2: if you look at sovereign AI right now in the
Speaker 2: announcements earlier in the year about you know, Saudi Arabia
Speaker 2: canna invest this huge amount of desness. But there's also
Speaker 2: the question are they ready yet, right because they need
Speaker 2: to build the infrastructure in terms of the energy. But
Speaker 2: I think it will eventually. I think we'll go hand
Speaker 2: in hand.
Speaker 1: Really really interesting and particularly Frank then the Pacific rim
Speaker 1: on Taiwan and then over to mainland China as well.
Speaker 1: Just absolutely fascinating. And again we protect the copyright of
Speaker 1: our guests. His reports are jaw dropping in their complexity.
Speaker 1: I threaten to actually read one and try to get
Speaker 1: through it. On AI and almost on the physics and
Speaker 1: computation wrapped around artificial intelligence, there's no physics with Lori Calvsina.
Speaker 1: It's about studying the mood of the equity market with
Speaker 1: RBC Capital Markets.
Speaker 3: Lori Calvisina, Well, what I'll tell you I'm seeing in
Speaker 3: my Decktom and Tom, you and I've known each other
Speaker 3: a long time. I am sort of like anti theme,
Speaker 3: anti fad, like I am never, you know, sort of
Speaker 3: drinking the kool aid on the next hot thing. But
Speaker 3: I've been calmed down a little bit on this AI
Speaker 3: theme because when I look at the top ten megacap
Speaker 3: names in the S and P five hundred, which are
Speaker 3: largely AI plays, and I do a median pe of
Speaker 3: those companies, and I compare it to the long term
Speaker 3: growth expectations, and I take those two things right, and
Speaker 3: I look at MAG seven versus rest of the S
Speaker 3: and P rel pe line is the same line as
Speaker 3: the relative long term earnings growth line, So they're getting
Speaker 3: different multiples, but it's based on the differing perceptions of
Speaker 3: what the long term earnings growth rates are. And that's
Speaker 3: been very similar to what we tend to see over time.
Speaker 3: I think there was a breakdown in that relationship around
Speaker 3: the GFC briefly, but this is even how stocks behaved
Speaker 3: back in the nineties and early two thousands. So I
Speaker 3: think you've really got to tackle those long term earnings
Speaker 3: growth expectations, and you've either got to just like Bang
Speaker 3: down the mag seven trade and say their numbers are
Speaker 3: way too optimistic, or you've got to look at the
Speaker 3: rest of the market and say it's way too pessimistic
Speaker 3: and move those up. And we're just not seeing any
Speaker 3: change in that relative gap. So they're kind of each
Speaker 3: getting the relative pe they deserve.
Speaker 1: Bottle it, Laurie Kelvisen. There are the wonderful discussion of
Speaker 1: piecing together your conviction about what the growth rate is,
Speaker 1: however you measure that with a company and with an
Speaker 1: industry as well. It really gets back to the basics
Speaker 1: of security analysis. We're back to the basics here in
Speaker 1: mid July onward to that July thirty FED meeting, and
Speaker 1: of course all the geopolitics of the domestic Washington as well.
Speaker 1: We're out on Apple Music, on Spotify as well as
Speaker 1: where you find the podcast and on YouTube podcasts. It's
Speaker 1: a single best idea