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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. A single best idea.

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Speaker 1: It was a terrific Monday. Monday in July. You know,

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Speaker 1: you're really not focused like you got to get you

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Speaker 1: got to get the Tuesday, to get the week started.

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Speaker 1: Our team put together a great set of conversations to

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Speaker 1: get you to your Tuesday so you can get your

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Speaker 1: week started. Real high point. Elaine Ray joined us. She's

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Speaker 1: a giant in European economics. Was a really good and

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Speaker 1: thoughtful discussion on what she thinks Europe needs to do

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Speaker 1: to get their act together. It was very academic, very highbrow,

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Speaker 1: but that was wonderful. And then we had the lowbrow

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Speaker 1: as well. Isabelle Lee of Bloomberg News with a breaking

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Speaker 1: story the Compendium of Crypto at one hundred and eighteen

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Speaker 1: thousand bitcoin rather at one hundred and eighteen thousand and

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Speaker 1: whither from here. Wrapped around that was equities, bonds, currencies

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Speaker 1: and commodities and special guests in from Hong Kong. I

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Speaker 1: love saying this. With the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking

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Speaker 1: Corporation HSBC, is there giant on semiconductor analysis. Here is

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Speaker 1: Frank Lee of HSBC.

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Speaker 2: I think it is an issue that people talk about,

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Speaker 2: but we haven't really seen that really materialize yet. I

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Speaker 2: do think the infrastructure build will continue. I think everybody

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Speaker 2: recognizes the importance of AI right now and why it's

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Speaker 2: so important to invest it in. You know, for example,

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Speaker 2: if you look at sovereign AI right now in the

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Speaker 2: announcements earlier in the year about you know, Saudi Arabia

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Speaker 2: canna invest this huge amount of desness. But there's also

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Speaker 2: the question are they ready yet, right because they need

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Speaker 2: to build the infrastructure in terms of the energy. But

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Speaker 2: I think it will eventually. I think we'll go hand

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Speaker 2: in hand.

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Speaker 1: Really really interesting and particularly Frank then the Pacific rim

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Speaker 1: on Taiwan and then over to mainland China as well.

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Speaker 1: Just absolutely fascinating. And again we protect the copyright of

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Speaker 1: our guests. His reports are jaw dropping in their complexity.

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Speaker 1: I threaten to actually read one and try to get

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Speaker 1: through it. On AI and almost on the physics and

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Speaker 1: computation wrapped around artificial intelligence, there's no physics with Lori Calvsina.

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Speaker 1: It's about studying the mood of the equity market with

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Speaker 1: RBC Capital Markets.

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Speaker 3: Lori Calvisina, Well, what I'll tell you I'm seeing in

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Speaker 3: my Decktom and Tom, you and I've known each other

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Speaker 3: a long time. I am sort of like anti theme,

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Speaker 3: anti fad, like I am never, you know, sort of

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Speaker 3: drinking the kool aid on the next hot thing. But

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Speaker 3: I've been calmed down a little bit on this AI

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Speaker 3: theme because when I look at the top ten megacap

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Speaker 3: names in the S and P five hundred, which are

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Speaker 3: largely AI plays, and I do a median pe of

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Speaker 3: those companies, and I compare it to the long term

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Speaker 3: growth expectations, and I take those two things right, and

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Speaker 3: I look at MAG seven versus rest of the S

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Speaker 3: and P rel pe line is the same line as

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Speaker 3: the relative long term earnings growth line, So they're getting

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Speaker 3: different multiples, but it's based on the differing perceptions of

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Speaker 3: what the long term earnings growth rates are. And that's

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Speaker 3: been very similar to what we tend to see over time.

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Speaker 3: I think there was a breakdown in that relationship around

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Speaker 3: the GFC briefly, but this is even how stocks behaved

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Speaker 3: back in the nineties and early two thousands. So I

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Speaker 3: think you've really got to tackle those long term earnings

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Speaker 3: growth expectations, and you've either got to just like Bang

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Speaker 3: down the mag seven trade and say their numbers are

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Speaker 3: way too optimistic, or you've got to look at the

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Speaker 3: rest of the market and say it's way too pessimistic

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Speaker 3: and move those up. And we're just not seeing any

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Speaker 3: change in that relative gap. So they're kind of each

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Speaker 3: getting the relative pe they deserve.

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Speaker 1: Bottle it, Laurie Kelvisen. There are the wonderful discussion of

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Speaker 1: piecing together your conviction about what the growth rate is,

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Speaker 1: however you measure that with a company and with an

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Speaker 1: industry as well. It really gets back to the basics

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Speaker 1: of security analysis. We're back to the basics here in

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Speaker 1: mid July onward to that July thirty FED meeting, and

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Speaker 1: of course all the geopolitics of the domestic Washington as well.

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Speaker 1: We're out on Apple Music, on Spotify as well as

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Speaker 1: where you find the podcast and on YouTube podcasts. It's

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Speaker 1: a single best idea