1 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jailey. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg PIM. 5 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 1: We were over the weekend, UH setting up the best 6 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:40,480 Speaker 1: way to discuss the Senator from Arizona. My first name 7 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: was Trevillus. Yes, Admiral James George Well, James trevinas I said, 8 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 1: let's get admirals trevit us out. Of course it tofts 9 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:53,600 Speaker 1: and of course this wonderful book See Power, which talks 10 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 1: about our oceans. Uh is well, Admiral, thank you so 11 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 1: much for joining us this morning. Your thoughts on John McCain, Well, 12 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: let me start. We've been talking correctly about what it 13 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 1: means that the nation to lose John McCain, If I may, 14 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 1: I want to tell you what it means for the 15 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 1: Navy to lose that. That's exactly what I wanted. He is. 16 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 1: He really is a legend, starting back at the Naval 17 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 1: Academy where he was the ultimate bad boy. He had 18 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 1: more demerits than anybody in his class. He graduated at 19 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 1: the absolute bottom of his class. He got away with 20 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 1: everything and he was beloved for it. Flashed forward incredible 21 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 1: heroism in Vietnam. We all know that um and then 22 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:39,759 Speaker 1: consistently for the rest of his life, the Navy continued 23 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 1: to be a touchdown. He was the son and grandson 24 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 1: of two fourth star admirals, and I can tell you, 25 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 1: as a fourth star admiral myself, that is not an 26 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 1: easy position. I look at my own children in the 27 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 1: Navy struggling with that. John McCain was an icon for 28 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: this nation, but even more so for the U. S. Navy. 29 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 1: We will miss him deeply. Who are the new John 30 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 1: McCain in the Navy? If you go to Annapolis today, 31 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 1: who are the new John mccains? How do you build 32 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 1: them today? We are fortunate that the service academies, and 33 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 1: here I'll I'll grudgingly admit, the place just up the 34 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 1: river called West Point does a pretty good job. Thanks 35 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 1: as that. The Air Force Academy in Colorado, it wasn't 36 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:27,079 Speaker 1: aware of that either. And all those academies are all 37 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: about duty, honor, country. They are all driven by honor 38 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:35,160 Speaker 1: codes that say we will not lie, cheat, or steel. 39 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 1: And they produced people to throw a name out like 40 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 1: Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs for Star 41 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 1: Admiral as straight as as an arrow and extraordinary leader. 42 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 1: There are plenty of John McCain's out there these days. 43 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 1: Admiral Steverda's John McCain was a naval aviator and that 44 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 1: also had an effect on the way people look at 45 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 1: appropriations and the power that the US Navy is able 46 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:05,239 Speaker 1: to project. I'm wondering if you could just comment on 47 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 1: his role as an naval aviator and what legacy he 48 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 1: will leave there. Yeah. I have to begin by saying 49 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 1: that I came out of the Academy and I wanted 50 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:17,640 Speaker 1: to be a naval aviator, you know, like Goose and 51 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: Maverick and Top Gun. By the way, the remake is 52 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 1: coming out soon, uh, And I could never do it 53 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 1: because every time I did a barrel role, I lost 54 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:29,519 Speaker 1: my lunch in the cockpit. So I have enormous respect 55 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 1: for these aviators and really that ability to project power 56 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 1: from c on these massive aircraft carriers, eight combat aircraft 57 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 1: on the decks of each, seven acres, those sovereign American 58 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 1: acres that go anywhere. They can move a thousand miles 59 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 1: in a day. These are extraordinary machines of war, but 60 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 1: they are useless without these naval aviators like John McCain. 61 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: You commanded the Enterprise Carrier Strike Group and that conducted 62 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 1: operations in the Persian Gulf operation of Rocky Freedom operation 63 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 1: and during Freedom. What's changed in terms of the use 64 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 1: of aircraft carriers to project not just military force but 65 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 1: political influence. What's really changed since I had command of 66 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 1: Enterprise and we were doing simultaneous operations in Afghanistan, in 67 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 1: Iraq and over the Horn of Africa. That that incredible 68 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:32,840 Speaker 1: operational flexibility, that ability to maneuver, that has not changed. 69 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:36,919 Speaker 1: But what has changed is the rise of pure navies, 70 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:41,479 Speaker 1: notably China and Russia have become much more capable at sea. 71 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 1: So instead of, if you will, getting open sea space 72 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 1: to move those carriers and simply launch those strikes, today 73 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:53,600 Speaker 1: our carriers have to worry about other navies at sea 74 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:56,360 Speaker 1: who can compete with us, like China and Russia. That 75 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: means we have to be better at missile defense, better 76 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:03,160 Speaker 1: at anti submarine warfare, better at protecting the carrier at 77 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:07,480 Speaker 1: seed than we had to previously. Admiraldu To finish up 78 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 1: with our discussion of John McCain before we get back 79 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:13,920 Speaker 1: to more important international relations matters with your work at 80 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:18,520 Speaker 1: TuS Fletcher School. Al Hunt, in his beautiful essay, mentions 81 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:23,479 Speaker 1: John Glenn and I think there's not enough said about 82 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: you know, we know of McCain over Vietnam, but the 83 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 1: technology of the Korean War that Ted Williams and John 84 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:38,159 Speaker 1: Glenn flew in was is medieval? Is medieval the right word? Yes, 85 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 1: medieval is the right word. And you're right to mention 86 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 1: both of those legends, especially John Glenn, who was a 87 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 1: lifelong naval aviator. He was a US Marine Corps and 88 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: of course they're part of the Department of the Navy, 89 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: and they flew basically flying crates that were very similar 90 00:05:56,960 --> 00:05:58,840 Speaker 1: to what came out of World War Two. By the 91 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 1: time John Cane was flying much more advanced radar, much 92 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 1: better capability. You have to tip your hat to people 93 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 1: like John Glenn when I when I look at what 94 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 1: we're talking about here, it is about the deployment. His 95 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 1: pin was mentioning the boats in the water today, the 96 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 1: aircraft carrier excuse me, shift, so what I know spoken 97 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 1: like your thank you? Yeah, God nailed nailed that as 98 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:30,839 Speaker 1: far as I got airmalster Vitas was a grumming canoe 99 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:35,160 Speaker 1: with wings, yes, with the wigs within this adimalster view. 100 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,279 Speaker 1: This is a new technology. Would Senator McCain know the 101 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: two technology? Could he land a plane on one of 102 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 1: these new carriers we have in a minute, And I 103 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:48,799 Speaker 1: will tell you that actually that technology makes it tom 104 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 1: So you could probably land plane on an aircraft carrier. 105 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 1: That's how good it is now. Seriously, John McCain, UH, open, intuitive, 106 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:01,280 Speaker 1: lifelong learner, and I think that's very important quality and 107 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:05,839 Speaker 1: a leader that ability to change and step into new technology. 108 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:07,920 Speaker 1: And John McCain did that every day. That's why he 109 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 1: was so important on the Senate Armed Services Committee because 110 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 1: he knew those technologies so well as he was funding 111 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 1: them for us to take them for Well, let's finish 112 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 1: up this discussion before we get back to uh the 113 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 1: work at hand. Your wonderful book in my book of 114 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 1: the Year, The Leader's Bookshelf had a seventy nine books 115 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 1: in it. For our listeners, what is the book in 116 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 1: your the Leader's bookshelf that has the most to do 117 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 1: with Senator McCain. I think the one that would reflect 118 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:43,280 Speaker 1: the most would be another prisoner of war story, and 119 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: that's James Stockdale, who you'll recall Tom was at one 120 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 1: point vice presidential candidate with Rossborough. He and his wife Sybil. 121 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 1: Stockdale and his wife Sybil wrote a book called In 122 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 1: Love and War about Stockdale's time in the camps, alternating 123 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 1: chapters between the two of them. It's a love story 124 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 1: that transcends war and is also brings to focus what 125 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:09,520 Speaker 1: John McCain went you win those camps. Let's come back 126 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 1: with James Durvinus the toughs. James Stockdale pim buried at 127 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 1: the Naval Academy and Mr mckaine will join him. Yes, 128 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 1: he was at most Stocktail was also he was shot down, 129 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 1: uh in North Vietnam. That was in September. We'll come 130 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 1: back with James Trevines. Lots to talk about on our 131 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:33,199 Speaker 1: International Relations film. I liked where you're going there with 132 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:37,839 Speaker 1: the boats at ham today and uh ships boats, ships, Yeah, well, 133 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 1: I gotta say also, you know, just over the weekend 134 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 1: there was a report that there were there were three 135 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 1: Russian warships that were spotted passing through the bus Verus 136 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 1: that connects Turkey. Let's let's come back and talk to 137 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 1: James drevinus about that more typical themes what we thank him? First? 138 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:17,760 Speaker 1: Comments on uh Senator McCain John gollub with us listening 139 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 1: to the opening show festivities, and there's sort of that 140 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 1: August and in school used to start Wednesday of Labor Day, 141 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 1: and that's sort of when you reallocated your portfolio. And 142 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 1: as we all know, anybody with parents, we hate it. 143 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 1: It's all starting earlier and earlier. Were there? Now, how 144 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 1: do you reallocate this morning? Well, I'm first of all, 145 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 1: I'm not sure that you really do relocate, but you 146 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: and I were talking about this before on TV. The 147 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 1: real question is how much of your money do you 148 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:49,479 Speaker 1: put in technology? And how how strong are they equity investment? 149 00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 1: Where do you put it in tech? Yeah? And I think, um, right, 150 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 1: right now, these companies are just so powerful in their 151 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 1: ability to earn and their potential upside, and even as importantly, 152 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 1: the damage that they're doing to other large parts of 153 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 1: the economy in the process of their success is just 154 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 1: making them look relatively so much more attractive, relatively attractive, 155 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 1: and that goes to the idea of value trap. Where's 156 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 1: the value trap in the market? Our listeners. They're gonna 157 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 1: make decisions there in cash. They've missed the bull market. 158 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:24,680 Speaker 1: Where are we twelve months trailing? I can bring this 159 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:27,840 Speaker 1: up in a Bloomberg quickly with the w E I function. 160 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 1: It's only up eighteen percent double digit in the last 161 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:35,040 Speaker 1: twelve months. Okay, fine, where's the value trap that I 162 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 1: want to buy cheap? But it's a mistake. Well, I 163 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 1: will tell you. When I'm talking to traditional value investors, 164 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:42,720 Speaker 1: they're finding it hard to find anything that looks really cheap. 165 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 1: But I think that perhaps the area might be in 166 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 1: consumer staples. Companies that were very expensive have fallen a 167 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:52,640 Speaker 1: fair bit, are a little bit cheaper than the market 168 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:56,400 Speaker 1: right now, but their their brands are just getting demolished 169 00:10:56,720 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: by technology. And we are changing the way that we're 170 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:03,400 Speaker 1: buying things because you can, you know, have you know, 171 00:11:03,520 --> 00:11:07,080 Speaker 1: just search on Google or or or Amazon. I'm going 172 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 1: to pick up a major consumers something you buy at 173 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:13,199 Speaker 1: the grocery store all the time, folks. In revenue growth 174 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 1: is flat with the hope and prayer of single digit 175 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 1: growth into the future. Versus a major tech company where 176 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 1: in ninety days you can get two years of revenue 177 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 1: growth that you get in a food company. And I 178 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 1: know that you you love the idea of cash flows, 179 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 1: but if you look at the price for per cash 180 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:39,160 Speaker 1: flow on these tech companies are trading at a discount 181 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 1: to the market, partially because investors don't fully believe that 182 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 1: this growth can continue into the future. And I think 183 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 1: that they're likely gonna be wrong. And part of this 184 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,960 Speaker 1: is the management of those tech companies. Is it safe 185 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:55,079 Speaker 1: to say that that they're not making the accounting and 186 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 1: capital deployment mistakes of previous Tech Bowl markets. I think 187 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 1: there's a little more responsibility out there and maybe that 188 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:04,559 Speaker 1: or may just be that that some of these stories 189 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 1: are are coming of age um and and you know, 190 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 1: I was mentioning this again on on on the TV 191 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 1: show this morning, but if you look at the revenue 192 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 1: revenue chart of Amazon versus Walmart, one of them, you know, 193 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,520 Speaker 1: which is the Amazon line just looks like it launches, 194 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 1: that it was at one pace for a period of 195 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:27,079 Speaker 1: time and then all of a sudden revenues and profits 196 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 1: as we all became more comfortable with the types of 197 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 1: brands and and this and it's not only that one 198 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 1: company but others as well. How do you buy tech 199 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 1: if our listeners say, I don't want to buy just 200 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: the three names everybody else owns. Yeah, I mean you 201 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 1: can buy any t I you can buy a broad portfolio. 202 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:49,040 Speaker 1: Might mind you. You know, there's a whole there's obviously 203 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:52,080 Speaker 1: there's there's there's dozens or hundreds of companies that that 204 00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:54,439 Speaker 1: are part of that that ecosystem. And yeah, you don't 205 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:58,439 Speaker 1: want to buy just five or seven names. Um And 206 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 1: and there's there's success stories in everything. In a matter 207 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:03,200 Speaker 1: of fact, if you even look in areas like reads 208 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,200 Speaker 1: UM with you know, real estate investment trust, which wouldn't 209 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 1: be what you think about technology, but the most exciting 210 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 1: companies there are companies they are building data centers UM 211 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:15,960 Speaker 1: for cloud computing, and those are interesting plays. Um. You're 212 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 1: seeing that in you know, in in innovative consumer companies 213 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 1: that are using technology. So it's not just in our group. 214 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 1: Our David Wilson does a great equity update in the 215 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:27,000 Speaker 1: nine o'clock hour, sort of like the ten stocks of 216 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:29,440 Speaker 1: the day. They're moving in that and I have been 217 00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:33,840 Speaker 1: really quite taken by the the the idiosyncrasies of each 218 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 1: retail story. Now retail has got to react to Amazon. 219 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:40,199 Speaker 1: We all understand that as well. How do you how 220 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:44,319 Speaker 1: do you strategize about retail and the cacophony of the 221 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:47,680 Speaker 1: American consumption. Well, I think you have. I think you 222 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:49,840 Speaker 1: have a couple of stories here. One is that in 223 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:54,959 Speaker 1: the near term, these these companies are doing UH surprisingly 224 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 1: well because the American consumer is in great shape and 225 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:03,679 Speaker 1: the you know, the unemployment rate is low, wages are 226 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 1: beginning to rise, which has other side effects, but the 227 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 1: consumers in super shape and that's helping UM a lot. 228 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 1: But the question is is it masking UM? Perhaps? And 229 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 1: I think that the long term story is is somewhat 230 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 1: dire for many of these brick and mortar names, but 231 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 1: but no different than people who have invested in Japan, 232 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 1: where it was for twenty or thirty years a downward 233 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 1: trend line, but with periods of brilliant jumps where you 234 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 1: wanted to play play the game. Right now, maybe one 235 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: of those times where retail, even though it's on a downtrend, 236 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 1: looks absolutely brilliant because the consumers in great about I 237 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 1: think that large cap companies are probably going to continue 238 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 1: to do UH to outpage UM there in a in 239 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 1: a world where again the economy is good right now, 240 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 1: but in the world world. The economy has been tighter. 241 00:14:55,560 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 1: We're managing margins has been the key to six says. 242 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 1: Larger companies have just done a better job at managing 243 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 1: those expenses in margins. John Golub with a start at 244 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:22,440 Speaker 1: sweets as we look at the equity Margaret, you know 245 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 1: what in August afternoon we had animals to beat us 246 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 1: on and wonderful comments on John McCain and talking about 247 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 1: international relations on this day, as we did with John 248 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: gobb of Credit Sweets, a little different conversation, and we 249 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 1: could do that with Fred Lane with Lane Generational, which 250 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 1: is a dead serious effort with Raymond James to actually 251 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 1: talk to people about the emotion of money. Now. Granted, 252 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 1: you know, Fred Lane, what what's your minimum investment? Two 253 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 1: dred million, five thousand? What's a reasonable number? And to 254 00:15:58,080 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 1: a lot of people that's upot and other people to 255 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 1: rounding here. But the answer is, and I don't want 256 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 1: to say, what's a doal gonna do? Should I be 257 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: in the market. I want to talk about how the 258 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 1: sweat is different now from the kids than it was 259 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 1: twenty or forty years ago. You've got to deal with 260 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: the emotion of families, the generational and how are the 261 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:26,040 Speaker 1: kids different than they were a generation ago. Well, I 262 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 1: don't think the kids are so different. I think we 263 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 1: as parents and some in some cases, have been overly 264 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 1: concerned with our kids emotional well being and maybe haven't 265 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 1: asked him to do enough chores and be self sufficient enough. 266 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 1: I'm saying this about my own children as well. Um 267 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 1: But I think in general that my concern is that 268 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 1: the next generation, UM, well, I think find it a 269 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 1: little harder to accumulate capital. Then this past generation has founded. 270 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 1: The baby boomers have found it easier because there were 271 00:16:57,040 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 1: so many of us entering the economy that drove GDP growth, 272 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,359 Speaker 1: And I think the I think today's world is a 273 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 1: little different than it's gonna be harder to accumulate capital. 274 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:10,119 Speaker 1: I think global growth is going to be over time, 275 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 1: it's going to be declining, and that's going to make 276 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,879 Speaker 1: it harder to accumulate capital. In the old days, you 277 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 1: had a cash flow off of a pot of money 278 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 1: and you could write ignorances tuition to whatever school. Today, 279 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 1: pim correct me if I'm wrong. It's overwhelming. It is 280 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:32,440 Speaker 1: for families and generations. It's just overwhelming. How do you 281 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 1: deal with that? How do you deal with somebody with 282 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:37,240 Speaker 1: a pot of money who says, look, I can't do 283 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 1: this because I can't write the checks. I got to 284 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:46,880 Speaker 1: dip into capital. Well, Michael, actually myel no, no, we're 285 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:51,200 Speaker 1: taking notes. Yeah, no, I listen. Most of my clients 286 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 1: aren't in that aren't directly in the crosshairs of that dilemma. However, 287 00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:59,159 Speaker 1: I think the question, and I'm glad it's being asked increasingly, 288 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 1: is is there are a good return on investment in 289 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 1: a college education? The rack rate, the rate that's supposed 290 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 1: to be paid frequently is not okay. So you know, 291 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:13,240 Speaker 1: you got average university, maybe they're seventy seventy five all end, 292 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 1: but magically they come up with a scholarship for kids. 293 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 1: But your kid could put the puck in under the 294 00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 1: crossbar from he was different, thank you. Both My kids 295 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 1: were different because they were hockey players. And that's rather unfair. 296 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 1: They are heavily recruited athletes and that and that they're 297 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 1: they're putting a different class. But for the average, the 298 00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:35,360 Speaker 1: really smart, hard working kid, he's probably not gonna get 299 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:38,720 Speaker 1: scholarship help if his parents have means and the and 300 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,159 Speaker 1: the worst people that the people who are the worst off, 301 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 1: I should say, are the people are making two fifty 302 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:46,240 Speaker 1: thousand dollars year because they're making enough, and they've been 303 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 1: good savers and put money away, and they have equity 304 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:51,120 Speaker 1: in their home, and the universities don't want to hear 305 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 1: about the fact that they need help. And so you know, frankly, 306 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:56,479 Speaker 1: a lot of those kids are going to end up 307 00:18:56,720 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 1: um the beneficiary of their parents large and the parents 308 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 1: are gonna end up with a lot less than in 309 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,400 Speaker 1: the way of retirement income. And it's it's an unfortunate situation. 310 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 1: That's one of the reasons I say to everybody, all clients, 311 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:12,120 Speaker 1: let me meet your children. Let's get the magic compounding 312 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,879 Speaker 1: going when they're young years old. Put away ten fifteen 313 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,639 Speaker 1: thousand dollars a year consistently every year. That adds up 314 00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:20,480 Speaker 1: by the time you're fifty. It's a lot of money 315 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 1: by the time you're fifty. Fred Fred Lane, I want 316 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 1: to ask about the context in which we kind of 317 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,280 Speaker 1: do all these comparisons, you know, and and one of 318 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 1: the things I've kind of noticed is everyone's trying to 319 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 1: compare now to a period, let's say, after the Second 320 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:41,120 Speaker 1: World War, and if you look at that as the anomaly. 321 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:45,360 Speaker 1: Not everyone had any money. I mean, no one had anyoney. 322 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 1: I can remember conversations around the dining room table where 323 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,120 Speaker 1: when asked about the depression, my father would say, what depression? 324 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,000 Speaker 1: No one had any money before, no one had any 325 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 1: money during, and no one had any money afterwards. And 326 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 1: I'm wondering whether we're comparing this to some nostalgic gold 327 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 1: and age that really didn't exist from most people. Look, 328 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: the standard of living for the average from Americans in 329 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 1: general is breathtaking lee high, there's no question about it. Uh. 330 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:15,640 Speaker 1: And yet by comparison, when we see the super wealthy 331 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,359 Speaker 1: and the very wealthy all a function of the accumulation 332 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:22,400 Speaker 1: of wealth that's gone on, um, you know, certain people 333 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:24,400 Speaker 1: are gonna feel as if they've missed out, they missed 334 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 1: missed because they only have two cars and they have 335 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 1: a boat, and they don't have a summer home, and 336 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:31,240 Speaker 1: oh too bad. And and I'm not saying that dismissively. 337 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:35,159 Speaker 1: I'm not saying that dismissively risively, But I'm saying a 338 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,720 Speaker 1: different in a different fashion, which is the wealth effect 339 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 1: has created a class of human being, a class, a 340 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 1: small class who are unbelievably wealthy, but you know, it's 341 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 1: a function time. You know you you remember, I remember 342 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 1: Pam in six when I came to Wall Street, the 343 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,639 Speaker 1: dow was at six hundred in four d. If you 344 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 1: had just put money into the market, it didn't matter 345 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,720 Speaker 1: what you did. You know, you you you would accumulate 346 00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:59,119 Speaker 1: tremendous levels of capital. But you have to be in 347 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 1: the game in order to benefit from the game. Patient 348 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 1: and also unemotional, staying the course. Staying the course, you 349 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:11,399 Speaker 1: make adjustments, of course, but no pun intended. But but nonetheless, um, 350 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 1: you have to be in the game, and you have 351 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,639 Speaker 1: to be unemotional and frankly, you know, when there's a 352 00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,760 Speaker 1: rollover in the market, bingo, that's the time to be 353 00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:21,159 Speaker 1: putting money to work. Where I grew up, it was 354 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 1: people that bought Kodak, you know, from Frank Strong and 355 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:28,879 Speaker 1: George Eastman, or they bought a company called hay Lloyd, 356 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:33,200 Speaker 1: which became a company called Xerox. You must have clients 357 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:37,200 Speaker 1: about Apple for a song or Amazon when they sold books. 358 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,400 Speaker 1: What do you advise them to do when it becomes 359 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:45,560 Speaker 1: twenty and thirty and of a portfolio? How dare you 360 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 1: sell that? Do you write? Puts again? It? Well? What 361 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 1: do you do with a huge gain that overweights a portfolio. Well, 362 00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 1: I think writing some some calls against it, having some 363 00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 1: having some of that stockhold against you makes sense. I mean, 364 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 1: they're comes a point when there's over concentration in a portfolio. 365 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:04,679 Speaker 1: I'm talking about, man, I'm not talking about some cutesy 366 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,919 Speaker 1: pie academics out of m I t talking about huge 367 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,639 Speaker 1: overconcer If someone is fifty or eighty or nine of 368 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:15,360 Speaker 1: their portfolio in one stock, you have to caution them 369 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:19,440 Speaker 1: to diversify because things happen right now. It's it's it's 370 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:21,639 Speaker 1: tricky because um, I mean, I have a client who 371 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:25,199 Speaker 1: owns tens of thousands of stock as a result of 372 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 1: being on a board, UM, and the stock has continued 373 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 1: to appreciate and appreciate and appreciate, appreciate. It's very well positioned. 374 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 1: It's in the life sciences healthcare sect but well it's 375 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 1: it's fift of this individual's net worth, So it's not excessive. 376 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 1: It's a little excessive, quite honestly, but there's enough resources 377 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:48,720 Speaker 1: so it's it's okay. But um, you know we as 378 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: you I think you know. Tom My portfolio for my 379 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:54,919 Speaker 1: growth investors is fifteen stocks we say we don't rebalance, 380 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 1: but we do. When we get to eleven or twelve 381 00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,439 Speaker 1: or thirteen percent, we have to rebalance. It's imprudent not 382 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:03,359 Speaker 1: to so we've owned companies, you know. But this is 383 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,400 Speaker 1: against in in Fred and I are on the same 384 00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:10,639 Speaker 1: page on this full disclosure, folks, against the industry of rebalancing. 385 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 1: If you get the three or four percent of a portfolio, 386 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,120 Speaker 1: and think of all the gain you lost on Apple 387 00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:21,399 Speaker 1: or Amazon if you're smart enough to buy him. I mean, 388 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:24,400 Speaker 1: there's a whole list of stocks, look at the top. 389 00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,000 Speaker 1: I mean, is it too too much, Fred to say 390 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,800 Speaker 1: it's basically on the edge of Sequoia. You and I 391 00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:33,119 Speaker 1: are talking about a model that really harkens back to 392 00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:37,679 Speaker 1: the genius of Sequoia. Absolutely listen. I mean concentration matters. 393 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,439 Speaker 1: You have to you can't. If you own the market, 394 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,119 Speaker 1: you will perform like the market. If you want to 395 00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 1: outperform the market, you have to be concentrated, which means 396 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 1: you have to have a point of view, and you 397 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:51,040 Speaker 1: have to have sectors and companies that you know well 398 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:54,240 Speaker 1: that you feel will will perform in a superior way. 399 00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,080 Speaker 1: And that's a focus on secular growth. In my experience 400 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:03,040 Speaker 1: buy stocks now. Yes, Um, although new money coming in. 401 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 1: I'm telling my clients, look, if you if you're if 402 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:07,439 Speaker 1: you're the kind of person who's going to have a 403 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 1: regret that we buy it at this level and it 404 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,680 Speaker 1: goes down ten percent because of which I'm not predicting, 405 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 1: but if you're going to live with deep regret and 406 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 1: you're not gonna you'll get that back within a year 407 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,919 Speaker 1: or two, there's an alternative E and so certain clients 408 00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:23,480 Speaker 1: we're putting money into ninety and two hundred seventy day 409 00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 1: and three hundred sixty day c d s and when 410 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,320 Speaker 1: they when they're a tour, we put the money to work. 411 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,680 Speaker 1: So we're kind of dollar cost average. It's a psychological 412 00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 1: thing and it's not really compete. It's not coming to 413 00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,240 Speaker 1: me to be doing it because I don't think we're 414 00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 1: in I don't think we're ready for over session. This 415 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:42,240 Speaker 1: was valuable, but it's not why we booked you are 416 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,240 Speaker 1: the Toronto maple Beliefs just totally loaded this year? Is 417 00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,159 Speaker 1: it going to be like a joy for you to 418 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,440 Speaker 1: go to Boston Fleet Centered, Boston Garden whatever and see 419 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,000 Speaker 1: the Toronto map Beliefs. It's never a joy to go 420 00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 1: to Fleet because the Bruins just don't have the skilled 421 00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,919 Speaker 1: players that I like to see plays. Really, I like 422 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:02,040 Speaker 1: to the opposing teams. Boston has always had a tradition 423 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,800 Speaker 1: in my view, Bobby or being the great exception of 424 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:08,800 Speaker 1: not having flashy, highly skilled, great skating players. Don't they 425 00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 1: just don't. They don't play e C a c Hockey. 426 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:12,840 Speaker 1: I mean, get you know, cut to the chase right right, 427 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:16,119 Speaker 1: Fred Lane with us and e c a c Hockey 428 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 1: and of course with Lane generational with Raymond. Some interesting 429 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:34,720 Speaker 1: inside there, folks. Right now, Aaron Brown with us with 430 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:38,639 Speaker 1: ubs as we look at where to places the money 431 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,000 Speaker 1: and the big difference, Aaron is, all of a sudden, 432 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,399 Speaker 1: there's a yield in the short term space. Are we 433 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:47,920 Speaker 1: back to normal equity and bond correlations? Yeah? I think 434 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,280 Speaker 1: that we are back to what I think is going 435 00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 1: to persist for some time, which is a negative stock 436 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:56,800 Speaker 1: bond correlation. I think that's really important for asset managers 437 00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 1: and particularly for US as an asset allocator, in that 438 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,320 Speaker 1: given the fact that the stock bond correlation is negative, 439 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:07,480 Speaker 1: it helps actually for acid allocators to be long stocks 440 00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,680 Speaker 1: and be long bonds. As a diversifier, so you actually 441 00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,800 Speaker 1: can stay longer stocks and have a larger weight of 442 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:17,520 Speaker 1: allocation to equities in your portfolio. Given the fact that 443 00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,359 Speaker 1: the stock bond correlation is negative, how two thousand six 444 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:22,560 Speaker 1: has been that long, right, it has, and we think 445 00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,199 Speaker 1: it's going to persist. What could turn it negative is 446 00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:29,119 Speaker 1: if we were to see inflation spike well ahead, Well, 447 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,000 Speaker 1: I was going to ask about the earnings boom that 448 00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,800 Speaker 1: you're seeing in US companies particularly, and where they're going 449 00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:35,840 Speaker 1: to use the money that they make. Are they going 450 00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,399 Speaker 1: to be paying down more debt? And that means that 451 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 1: it's going to be less supply of corporate bonds. So 452 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:44,440 Speaker 1: that's that's likely, right. I think that you are going 453 00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:46,919 Speaker 1: to see them continuing to pay down debt. But I 454 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 1: think that particularly right now, given the fact that rates 455 00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,119 Speaker 1: are still low, that the expectation that rates are going 456 00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,320 Speaker 1: to rise, you are still going to see a bringing 457 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,520 Speaker 1: pretty lofty bond issuance um, which is one of the 458 00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:01,600 Speaker 1: reasons actually that we are negative high yield right now 459 00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:06,359 Speaker 1: in our asset allocation portfolios. Aaron Brown with us, and 460 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 1: we will continue right now. Is is such a tradition 461 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,480 Speaker 1: PIM is a moment of silence at the New York 462 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:16,440 Speaker 1: Stock Exchange. It is more often, but today most poign, 463 00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 1: isn't it. Yes, it is a moment of silence for 464 00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 1: the passing of Senator John McCain formal Navy aviator and 465 00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,960 Speaker 1: also really a mavericka in the on the floor of 466 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:32,080 Speaker 1: the U. S. Senate, and in New York, of course 467 00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,320 Speaker 1: Senate Schumer talking about renaming the Russell Building in Washington 468 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,320 Speaker 1: for John McCain. Let us listen in to the quiet 469 00:27:38,440 --> 00:28:06,800 Speaker 1: at the New York Stock Exchange, the New York Stock 470 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:11,440 Speaker 1: Exchange and honor of John McCain. We've seen this many times, Pam. 471 00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,680 Speaker 1: And of course as we come up on September eleven, 472 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,520 Speaker 1: I should announced within the remembrance of September eleventh that 473 00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,800 Speaker 1: I'll be with Cantor Fitzgerald again this once again this 474 00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:26,160 Speaker 1: year with scarlet food. Yes, and there in their efforts 475 00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:32,199 Speaker 1: to remember September eleven, continue with the Aaron Brown of UBS, 476 00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:39,840 Speaker 1: Managing Director ahead of asset allocation? Is asset allocation uh, 477 00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:45,560 Speaker 1: something that depends on the perspective of UBS or the 478 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:49,360 Speaker 1: perspective of the client. It's a great question. It Actually 479 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 1: we have our own capital market assumptions that our own 480 00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 1: asset allocation views. There are certain parameters the clients, when 481 00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:59,080 Speaker 1: we're speaking with clients will set for us and with 482 00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:02,440 Speaker 1: us until they'll ask us to take a specific overweight 483 00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:05,160 Speaker 1: to an asset class, or to a country, or in 484 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,680 Speaker 1: many cases to hedge if we're talking to our sovereign 485 00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:11,800 Speaker 1: wealth fund, to hedge, the underlying currency that they transact in. 486 00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 1: Also we're seeing increasingly is specific clients want to increase 487 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:21,240 Speaker 1: their private market asset allocation views. So whether it's into 488 00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 1: real estate, into hedge funds, into venture capital, or into 489 00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:29,800 Speaker 1: real assets like real estate, timber, other commodities. So a 490 00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:32,720 Speaker 1: lot of times, certainly we will have our own views 491 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,400 Speaker 1: and we have our own capital market assumptions that underpin 492 00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:39,400 Speaker 1: how we allocate. But a lot of the dialogue that 493 00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:43,080 Speaker 1: we have with clients is understanding what their parameters are 494 00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,400 Speaker 1: and what they either want to include or exclude in 495 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 1: terms of asset allocation. Well, the reason I asks, and 496 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:52,840 Speaker 1: I'm glad you mentioned these these situations is because risk 497 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,160 Speaker 1: is a two edged sword, right at least two, maybe 498 00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,960 Speaker 1: a nine. But the reason being that risk is great 499 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,200 Speaker 1: when you're making money, But do they really understand the 500 00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:06,800 Speaker 1: risks that they're taking by asking to go into these 501 00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:13,720 Speaker 1: private investments that may lack liquidity. It's interesting because if 502 00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,080 Speaker 1: you rewind a couple of years ago in terms of 503 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:19,400 Speaker 1: the asset allocation conversations that we were having, they were 504 00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:22,560 Speaker 1: looking to mitigate risk, they were looking to lower their 505 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:26,400 Speaker 1: equity allocations. Now that we're you know, several years, in 506 00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:30,760 Speaker 1: ten years into the bowl market equity assets have outperformed, 507 00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:34,040 Speaker 1: you know, certainly what their expectations are. We're now actually 508 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:38,600 Speaker 1: seeing the opposite conversations having and clients wanting to increase risk, 509 00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:42,120 Speaker 1: willing to take more risk on potentially more a liquidity 510 00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:45,920 Speaker 1: risk as well, in order to earn a higher return. 511 00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 1: And so the question I think is prudent, which is 512 00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:50,880 Speaker 1: is this the right point in the cycle to be 513 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:56,120 Speaker 1: doing that? And I think given how well really, you know, um, 514 00:30:56,640 --> 00:31:00,080 Speaker 1: private market assets have performed, there is a willingness to 515 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,840 Speaker 1: be able to take that illiquidity risk. The one thing 516 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:06,360 Speaker 1: I will say is there are from our asset allocation studies, 517 00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:11,360 Speaker 1: there are benefits to diversification, to expanding the asset classes 518 00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 1: and the remit in which you're investing in. You know, 519 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,040 Speaker 1: the question can you be too diversified? I'm sorry, can 520 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:21,320 Speaker 1: you be too diversified. Absolutely, you can be huge risk. Absolutely. 521 00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:23,280 Speaker 1: It's been one of our themes for the show today. 522 00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:25,480 Speaker 1: I mean, not that you want to own only Apple 523 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,520 Speaker 1: or only Amazon and look like a genius, but you 524 00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 1: know it's Peter Lynch called a diversifications a tangible issue, 525 00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:33,479 Speaker 1: and that's why I think you really have to be 526 00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:37,680 Speaker 1: critical in terms of the interplay between tactical asset allocation, 527 00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 1: which we define as inside is twelve months and longer 528 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,800 Speaker 1: term asset allocation, which we define as twelve months. How 529 00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:45,800 Speaker 1: do you respond to clients very quickly or how do 530 00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:49,800 Speaker 1: you respond to clients that diversified out and we're underinvested 531 00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:53,760 Speaker 1: in equities and they're angry. I mean, so a lot 532 00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:55,880 Speaker 1: of the studies we're doing now are for those types 533 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,960 Speaker 1: of clients. And we think that it's right now in 534 00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:02,720 Speaker 1: the cycle you should still be long and be overweight equities, 535 00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:04,680 Speaker 1: and we don't think that it's too late to be 536 00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:08,320 Speaker 1: overweight equities at this point, but we understand that over 537 00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:10,760 Speaker 1: the next three years we're predicting that we will have 538 00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,920 Speaker 1: our recession. So you have to be really managed that 539 00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 1: tactical risk as well. Aaron Brown, thank you so much 540 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,160 Speaker 1: with you will be yesterday on the Battle of Alice 541 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:22,240 Speaker 1: asset allocation. This is a great pim to have Fred 542 00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:24,600 Speaker 1: Lane with us in the Aaron Brown really, you know, 543 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:27,280 Speaker 1: it's it's like that timy year. Yes, and also just 544 00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:31,680 Speaker 1: to you know, be a little patient and don't get emotional. Well, 545 00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:49,280 Speaker 1: that were easier said than done, particularly with do you 546 00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:53,760 Speaker 1: talk to James Travitis earlier about the navy and John 547 00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,560 Speaker 1: McCain is appropriate to talk to the twenty second Attorney 548 00:32:56,640 --> 00:33:01,120 Speaker 1: General of Arizona about John McCain in Arizona. And this 549 00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:04,600 Speaker 1: is Grant Woods, who is the rarest or rare in 550 00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:10,240 Speaker 1: American politics, someone within the middle territory of his Republican party. 551 00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:13,240 Speaker 1: Grant was wonderful to have you with us in particularly, 552 00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:15,840 Speaker 1: I would suggest out of New York and Washington, the 553 00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:20,080 Speaker 1: focuses on John McCain of the east of Annapolis and 554 00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:23,480 Speaker 1: of the Naval Academy where he'll be buried. How divisive 555 00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:30,680 Speaker 1: was John McCain within Arizona Republican politics. Well, that's a 556 00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,160 Speaker 1: good question. Thank and thank you for all you're doing 557 00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:37,959 Speaker 1: here to honor Senator McCain and talk about his amazing life. 558 00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:42,960 Speaker 1: Um well, I think as time went on. Uh, there's 559 00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,720 Speaker 1: a big difference as but I think we see around 560 00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:49,800 Speaker 1: the country between the hardcore activists and the Republican Party, 561 00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:53,640 Speaker 1: and they were generally not very supportive of Senator McCain 562 00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,280 Speaker 1: and haven't been for a long time. And then you 563 00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:01,200 Speaker 1: had the general um pop elation there that you know, 564 00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:06,200 Speaker 1: just Republicans throughout Arizona, and obviously he was very popular there. 565 00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:09,600 Speaker 1: He won handily every time that that he ran. So 566 00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:13,200 Speaker 1: you know, when you go to the Republican meetings with 567 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:17,560 Speaker 1: the hardcore, it wasn't pretty. Uh, you know, when when 568 00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:21,399 Speaker 1: he when he ran for president in O eight and 569 00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:26,560 Speaker 1: they they did their little election at the state Republican 570 00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:31,240 Speaker 1: meeting and they endorsed Duncan Hunter for president now John McCain, 571 00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,040 Speaker 1: and that didn't work out too well for them, I 572 00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:37,680 Speaker 1: don't think. But it was typical, you know, it's just 573 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:41,040 Speaker 1: this just the way it goes. It was they were 574 00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:44,960 Speaker 1: pretty hardcore and they didn't like the fact that he 575 00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:50,680 Speaker 1: regularly worked with people across party lines. Can you explain 576 00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:56,880 Speaker 1: the what seemed to be the personal enmity between President 577 00:34:56,960 --> 00:35:02,480 Speaker 1: Donald Trump and Senator m team Why did that exist? 578 00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:07,960 Speaker 1: I don't think, um, I think it's a one Way Street. 579 00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:12,400 Speaker 1: To be honest with you, I think Senator McCain, Um, 580 00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:15,799 Speaker 1: you know, he's, as everyone knows now and and has 581 00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:20,640 Speaker 1: reflected upon, he had quite the remarkable life, and he 582 00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:27,200 Speaker 1: had been up against different powerful forces his entire life. 583 00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:33,120 Speaker 1: So here in his latter years, when Donald Trump entered 584 00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:36,560 Speaker 1: the picture, that was no big deal for John McCain. 585 00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:38,600 Speaker 1: John McCain is going to be John McCain, and that 586 00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,040 Speaker 1: means he was going to say what he thought and 587 00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:43,560 Speaker 1: do what he thought was right for the country. And 588 00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:50,160 Speaker 1: he didn't really didn't really engage in any of this 589 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:55,080 Speaker 1: um personal enmity. On the other hand, it really did 590 00:35:55,120 --> 00:36:00,520 Speaker 1: seem to get under Donald Trump's skin. And I think 591 00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:05,160 Speaker 1: that's just because it's reflective of the men um and um. 592 00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:10,640 Speaker 1: President Trump has been very um, very good at ridiculing 593 00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:13,719 Speaker 1: people to the point where they ultimately backed down and 594 00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:18,200 Speaker 1: go away or um or get on board, and that 595 00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,239 Speaker 1: that just wasn't gonna happen with John. But I can 596 00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:24,400 Speaker 1: tell you over the last couple of years, so since 597 00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:31,040 Speaker 1: since Trump announced until until now, um, it really wasn't personal. 598 00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:35,120 Speaker 1: It didn't really bother him. These insults or slights are 599 00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,720 Speaker 1: all of that. The only one that got that bothered 600 00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:41,959 Speaker 1: John was when he said that John wasn't a hero 601 00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:47,359 Speaker 1: um because he was captured. And I promise you it 602 00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:52,080 Speaker 1: was not because of him taking a personal insult to 603 00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:55,640 Speaker 1: that there less, it was about the other po debuts 604 00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,080 Speaker 1: and the fact that here in their later years they 605 00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:01,719 Speaker 1: had to deal with this that's not and he really 606 00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:04,000 Speaker 1: resented that. I will say Grant was one of the 607 00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:07,640 Speaker 1: most employant images we've seen as we speak of John McCain, 608 00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:10,120 Speaker 1: was him going up in airplane stairs with Rob Portman 609 00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:14,200 Speaker 1: of Ohio. I would suggest you and Senator Portman represent 610 00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:17,680 Speaker 1: the dinosaurs of the Republican Party, the dying breed, maybe 611 00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:22,200 Speaker 1: with Olympia Snow of Maine of some form of Montorism. 612 00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:27,360 Speaker 1: How risky is your Republican Party of doing a wig, 613 00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:29,920 Speaker 1: if you will, of wandering into the trap of the 614 00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:33,719 Speaker 1: Whigs of eighteen fifty, eighteen fifty two and on to 615 00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:36,719 Speaker 1: the death of eighteen fifty six. Is that a legitimate 616 00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:41,040 Speaker 1: risk out in Arizona. I I think so for sure, 617 00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:45,520 Speaker 1: and I think it will happen here in Arizona, and 618 00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:47,960 Speaker 1: I think it will happen across the United States if 619 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:52,799 Speaker 1: things don't change. And as Senator McCain always said, if 620 00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:55,080 Speaker 1: if for no other reasons, He'd like for you to 621 00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:57,440 Speaker 1: do things for the right reason. But if for no 622 00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:01,200 Speaker 1: other reasons, look at the demographic and if if the 623 00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:06,920 Speaker 1: Republican Party is going to be anti hispanding UH, anti minorities, 624 00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:11,279 Speaker 1: if it's going to be um AH, if it really 625 00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:13,520 Speaker 1: isn't going to stand up for the Constitution and just 626 00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:17,520 Speaker 1: be divisive between groups, then there really is no future there. 627 00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:19,799 Speaker 1: And if you talk to people who are under the 628 00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:23,239 Speaker 1: age of I don't know, it's a thirty five, they 629 00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:28,359 Speaker 1: don't understand why the Republican Party acts that way. They 630 00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:32,640 Speaker 1: don't see race necessarily as as even an issue. They 631 00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:36,440 Speaker 1: don't see discrimination against UM people because of their sexual 632 00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:40,120 Speaker 1: orientation as as an issue. Why are you people still 633 00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:43,960 Speaker 1: talking about these things? And I think as we go forward, 634 00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,719 Speaker 1: UM Republicans are going to have to remember what they're 635 00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:51,560 Speaker 1: all about, which is limited government, which is a strong 636 00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:55,360 Speaker 1: national defense and working with our allies. And most importantly 637 00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:59,680 Speaker 1: for John McCain's perspective, we have to stand for what 638 00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:02,120 Speaker 1: he's it for, and that is free basic human rights 639 00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:04,799 Speaker 1: in the United States around the world. And if we 640 00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:08,200 Speaker 1: don't stand for that, if it's just a party about me, 641 00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:12,680 Speaker 1: me mean, which is the opposite of John McCain. Then, um, 642 00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:16,239 Speaker 1: then it probably deserves to go away. Well, I just 643 00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:20,920 Speaker 1: want to reintroduce, uh, speaking with Grant Woods, former Attorney 644 00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,479 Speaker 1: General of the State of Arizona and the former chief 645 00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,359 Speaker 1: of staff for a Senator John McCain when he was 646 00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:31,560 Speaker 1: in Congress as a congressman. Grant, just tell if you 647 00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:33,400 Speaker 1: can a little. There's a story that maybe not a 648 00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:36,640 Speaker 1: lot of people know, having to do with how Senator 649 00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:41,799 Speaker 1: John McCain requested a combat assignment in the Vietnam War. 650 00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:46,240 Speaker 1: And he was thirty years old when he was assigned 651 00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:50,400 Speaker 1: to the U. S. S. Forestal and he escaped death 652 00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:56,560 Speaker 1: on the forest all during a horrendous fire. Yes, yes, 653 00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:01,239 Speaker 1: well yeah, that's where he he wanted to be where 654 00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:04,719 Speaker 1: the action was. You know, he was, Um, he was 655 00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:09,680 Speaker 1: quite the character. Um always and in those days he 656 00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:13,680 Speaker 1: was kind of your Tom Cruise stereotypical fighter pilot, you know, 657 00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:17,319 Speaker 1: a little hard, play hard, and and he wanted to 658 00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:19,600 Speaker 1: be he wanted to be in combat. And then when 659 00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:22,080 Speaker 1: he went on he was on the forest call, he 660 00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:26,480 Speaker 1: was on the deck that day, and uh, that was 661 00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:29,200 Speaker 1: just one of the big tragedies of all time in 662 00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:34,560 Speaker 1: our military. And I know, I know, Jona. I mean, 663 00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:37,680 Speaker 1: there was a guy, I forget, I forget what his 664 00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:39,600 Speaker 1: nickname was, but there was a guy who would wash 665 00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:43,400 Speaker 1: your window of your of your jet just before you 666 00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:45,239 Speaker 1: were getting ready to take off. So they were all 667 00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:48,120 Speaker 1: lined up and this guy always gave him a thumbs 668 00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:51,120 Speaker 1: up and and he said something, some little phrase. And 669 00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:53,839 Speaker 1: so there's John in there in the cockpit. The guy 670 00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,319 Speaker 1: does that, and then all of a sudden there's this 671 00:40:56,400 --> 00:41:00,200 Speaker 1: huge explosion with one of these bombs that gone up 672 00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:03,880 Speaker 1: in the and he looked down, Uh there was a fire, 673 00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:06,120 Speaker 1: and then another big explosion, and when he looked down 674 00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:08,640 Speaker 1: that that guy who he knew very well, who was 675 00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:13,239 Speaker 1: his friend, was gone. He had evaporated into the air. 676 00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:17,040 Speaker 1: And somehow John got out of that plane before the 677 00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:20,799 Speaker 1: next huge explosion and made his way across the deck, 678 00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:24,239 Speaker 1: whereas you know, many many people didn't um. And I 679 00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:28,080 Speaker 1: think the remarkable thing there, which doesn't surprise anyone, is 680 00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:33,440 Speaker 1: that almost immediately he asked to uh go to another 681 00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:35,759 Speaker 1: ship so he could get back in the air and 682 00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:38,520 Speaker 1: back fighting for our adventure. Well, great Woods, thank you 683 00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:42,200 Speaker 1: so much. Was greatly greatly appreciate your attendis today. Mr 684 00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:47,000 Speaker 1: Woods a close, close friend and adviser to John McCain 685 00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:57,600 Speaker 1: in Arizona. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. 686 00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:02,880 Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to views on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or 687 00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:07,360 Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom 688 00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:11,319 Speaker 1: Keene before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 689 00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:12,880 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio