WEBVTT - Bills By The Numbers: Assessing The Run Game Usage; Offensive Shift To Help The Defense? 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:02.400 Hey, you're back, Thanks for checking in on Bills by 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:04.080 the Numbers, where we let the stats tell you where 0:00:04.080 --> 0:00:06.200 the Bills are at. We're presented by FANDU will make 0:00:06.280 --> 0:00:09.000 every moment more on the way the Bills of the 0:00:09.039 --> 0:00:12.000 number one rushing team in football. But have they leaned 0:00:12.080 --> 0:00:14.920 too far into the run game? We'll take a look 0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:18.919 and should the state of the defense's health way into 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:22.680 the kind of game that's called on offense. Steve is 0:00:22.760 --> 0:00:26.760 quizzed on Bills run versus past history, and we'll have 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:44.400 our one burning question schools in ring the bell, Thanks 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:45.360 for attending. 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:47.280 The latest position of Bills by the Numbers. He's Wall 0:00:47.320 --> 0:00:48.440 of Famer Steve. 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:50.920 Tasker on Bills play by playman Chris Brown, and we've 0:00:50.960 --> 0:00:55.480 all seen how successful Buffalo can be offensively when their 0:00:55.600 --> 0:00:58.960 run game is humming. Even though there have been a 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:01.920 couple of down days this season, the Bills are the 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:05.360 number one rushing team in football. James Cook has been 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:09.279 in contention for the rushing title this season since the start, 0:01:09.360 --> 0:01:13.160 and that success has convinced the offensive staff to lean 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:17.120 way in on the run game, particularly on first down. 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:20.680 After nine games played, the Bills run the ball on 0:01:20.840 --> 0:01:24.000 first down fifty eight and a half percent of the time, 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:26.800 and they're eighth and yards per carry average on first 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:29.720 down at four point nine, just a tenth off their 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:32.480 season average of five yards even, which is tied for 0:01:32.520 --> 0:01:33.280 third best. 0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:33.600 In the league. 0:01:33.640 --> 0:01:38.679 So in these three things, we begin with this question. 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:42.880 While that is good production, should the Bills be running 0:01:43.040 --> 0:01:45.959 that much on first down? 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:50.000 Steve? I think it should be more balanced. I wish 0:01:50.080 --> 0:01:51.920 they'd do a little bit more. Now. I get it. 0:01:52.000 --> 0:01:53.880 You get into a game and you snap off a 0:01:53.920 --> 0:01:57.400 six yard run on the first play of the series. Yeah, 0:01:57.400 --> 0:01:59.800 I don't have a problem with that. But the problem 0:01:59.880 --> 0:02:02.840 is if it doesn't work, I think that it's well, 0:02:02.840 --> 0:02:06.040 it's like an incomplete pass right or even so a 0:02:06.080 --> 0:02:10.799 loss of one. Right now, it's second and eleven. You 0:02:10.880 --> 0:02:12.720 got to do what it takes to win that game. 0:02:12.840 --> 0:02:15.480 I get that, And every game is different. So some games, yeah, 0:02:15.639 --> 0:02:19.080 run it every first down, But when you start stepping 0:02:19.120 --> 0:02:20.880 back and looking at the big picture, like we're doing 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:23.520 on Bills by the numbers, it's like, Man, I don't know, 0:02:24.280 --> 0:02:26.799 I'd like to see John Now. They did that against Miami. 0:02:26.840 --> 0:02:28.560 They came out in that first series and start throwing 0:02:28.560 --> 0:02:32.560 it around and we're unproductive. So I get you know 0:02:32.600 --> 0:02:35.080 how you react like that and say, now we're going 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:37.680 to start handing it off. But man, I'm telling you, 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:41.920 I'm I think balance is the best and I get it. 0:02:41.960 --> 0:02:44.239 Sixty forty is not out of whack. 0:02:45.320 --> 0:02:48.040 Yeah, it's fifty eight and a half to write forty two, 0:02:48.560 --> 0:02:49.760 so forty one and a half. 0:02:49.840 --> 0:02:52.280 But I think situation, I think it more depends on 0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:55.240 the situational spot of where you are in the game, 0:02:55.639 --> 0:02:58.640 what the game plan is, who the opponent is. So 0:02:58.680 --> 0:03:01.160 I'm you know, the big pictures, Yeah, you'd like to 0:03:01.160 --> 0:03:04.240 see it fifty to fifty, but each game is an 0:03:04.280 --> 0:03:07.160 animal on it onto its own. So I'm I think 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:10.080 you gotta trust what they see on film and what 0:03:10.120 --> 0:03:11.920 they think they can do. Now, you gotta know our 0:03:11.960 --> 0:03:15.400 offensive line is the big is a dependable asset on 0:03:15.400 --> 0:03:18.560 this offense, lean on and out of the game. I'm 0:03:18.560 --> 0:03:21.600 okay with that. But in the big picture, you want 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:22.840 to see it fifty to fifty. 0:03:23.240 --> 0:03:28.000 Right, I think it's it's vacillated too far towards running 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:32.720 the ball on first down. And look, it might be 0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:37.000 a byproduct, Steve of the disjointed nature of the pass game. 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:41.960 This offensive staff may not trust the passing game enough 0:03:42.080 --> 0:03:46.040 right now to get them consistent yards on first down 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:47.560 to keep them on schedule. 0:03:47.840 --> 0:03:48.600 They might just. 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:52.360 Simply trust the run game more. Where As we said, 0:03:52.400 --> 0:03:55.200 as a team, they average five yards to carry, so 0:03:55.240 --> 0:03:57.720 they just might say, well, the heck with it. The 0:03:57.800 --> 0:04:01.080 run game works well for us, we try it. Let's 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:03.920 run it on first down, get our five yards, and 0:04:03.960 --> 0:04:07.400 figure out the rest later. But when another team, an 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:10.720 opponent is keying on that because your tendencies say you're 0:04:10.760 --> 0:04:14.440 gonna do that, suddenly you're less effective and you've got 0:04:14.440 --> 0:04:16.160 to pivot. And I think they're at a point now 0:04:16.160 --> 0:04:19.760 where they have to pivot. I'm not saying become you know, 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:22.719 the throw it more than anybody else in the league 0:04:22.760 --> 0:04:27.440 on first down, but I think we've seen the benefits 0:04:27.480 --> 0:04:31.880 of Josh under center play action on first down this season. 0:04:31.960 --> 0:04:35.400 It's worked well for them, and I think there's nothing 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:38.479 wrong with lining him up in the shotgun on first 0:04:38.480 --> 0:04:41.640 down on occasion with James Cook next to him and 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:44.279 doing a read option fake and then throwing the football. 0:04:44.480 --> 0:04:47.560 There may be something to the fact that about their 0:04:47.640 --> 0:04:50.000 lack of confidence in their own throwing passing game. Even 0:04:50.040 --> 0:04:54.360 with Josh pulling the trigger. They also may say, listen, 0:04:54.400 --> 0:04:58.840 we're going to keep leaning into it because it forces 0:04:58.880 --> 0:05:00.719 the defense to throw eight in the box and that 0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:03.760 gives us a chance to be more successful it. Certainly, 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:06.680 certainly the Dolphins did that. They throw it, brought out 0:05:06.720 --> 0:05:10.440 three defensive alignment, three defensive tackles, they packed the line 0:05:10.440 --> 0:05:12.120 of scrimmage, and it worked for them. 0:05:12.160 --> 0:05:14.520 Yeah, they do play fifty front. They do do that. 0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:15.839 They did that in the first meeting. 0:05:16.160 --> 0:05:17.880 And the Bills, I think, I think the Bills are 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:19.920 fine with that. They're going to run into that once 0:05:19.920 --> 0:05:21.880 in a while. They don't they don't care. They can. 0:05:21.960 --> 0:05:23.720 They feel like they can get it done a little better. 0:05:23.760 --> 0:05:26.240 But what gets in the way of that. The Bills 0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:32.040 are not uncomfortable in close games. But when you puke 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:34.880 the ball up twice going in in three different times 0:05:34.880 --> 0:05:36.719 and you turn it over and there in that gets 0:05:36.760 --> 0:05:37.920 in the way of a close game and all of 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:39.680 a sudden, it's not close. And when you're playing your 0:05:39.720 --> 0:05:42.480 recipe is not that doesn't have that big a margin forever, 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:45.239 and that's the problem. Yeah, when you play that low 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:49.440 margin for error type style and you cough up the football, 0:05:50.480 --> 0:05:52.640 you're gonna end up on the wrong end of those sometimes, 0:05:52.640 --> 0:05:56.840 so it might require a shift in thinking, especially if 0:05:56.839 --> 0:05:59.960 this team is going to be coughing up the ball 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:02.320 the way they had, I mean eight turnovers in their 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:06.400 three losses. This team had eight turnovers all season last year. 0:06:06.760 --> 0:06:08.839 We knew it was going to We knew that was 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:12.320 not sustainable. You're not gonna go year over year lead 0:06:12.360 --> 0:06:15.080 the league or have the fewest turnovers in the league. 0:06:15.080 --> 0:06:18.120 That's just simply not gonna happen, purely by happenstance and 0:06:18.160 --> 0:06:21.080 the law of averages. And now seeing the way they've 0:06:21.080 --> 0:06:23.840 coughed up the football of late, you may need to 0:06:23.880 --> 0:06:26.360 shift your thinking a little bit and try to widen 0:06:26.440 --> 0:06:27.400 your margin for error. 0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:30.000 And the best way to do that might be to 0:06:30.040 --> 0:06:31.080 throw the football right. 0:06:31.080 --> 0:06:34.560 They're not I mean they're not. They're not like leading 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:36.680 the league in turnovers, but no stretch. No, But in 0:06:36.720 --> 0:06:40.359 their losses it's a problem, and I think that shows 0:06:40.400 --> 0:06:43.640 you where their margin of error is. As long as 0:06:43.640 --> 0:06:45.320 they mind their p's and q's and don't put the 0:06:45.360 --> 0:06:50.520 ball on the ground, they're still very tough to beat. 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:53.480 Yes, but in the three games where they have had 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:58.120 two turnovers or more, all losses, they've averaged fifteen points 0:06:58.200 --> 0:07:01.440 per game. In the other game games this season, they 0:07:01.480 --> 0:07:04.280 are over thirty in terms of points per game average. 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:07.840 They double their point output when they don't turn the 0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:10.440 ball over. Taking a look at some of the numbers, 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:12.720 as we do here on Bills, by the numbers of 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:15.480 the one hundred and fifty two runs on first down, 0:07:15.880 --> 0:07:18.760 they've gained seven hundred and thirty five yards. Of their 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:22.440 ninety seven pass attempts on first down, they've gained seven 0:07:22.520 --> 0:07:25.559 hundred and seventy three yards. The other eleven pass plays 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:28.960 wound up being scrambles. Usually the yards gained via the 0:07:29.000 --> 0:07:32.720 pass far out gain the rushing total. Here it's a 0:07:32.760 --> 0:07:37.200 mere thirty eight yard difference. Thing number two. Do these 0:07:37.280 --> 0:07:39.760 numbers on first down indicate why they're leaning into the 0:07:39.800 --> 0:07:41.760 run game so much on the first play of the series. 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:44.920 Are they not as productive as they feel they should 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:46.360 be on first down when passing? 0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:48.960 I think it's yeah, it's obvious. 0:07:49.120 --> 0:07:50.160 Yes, the answer is yes. 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:54.240 Right, yes, yeah, that's the answer is yes. And most 0:07:54.280 --> 0:07:56.000 of their and let's think about it too, we all 0:07:56.320 --> 0:07:58.520 know it, and we get calls on the regular daily 0:07:58.560 --> 0:08:00.840 show all the time. You know, all they do and 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:04.160 finger quotes. All they do. They throw those quick tunnel 0:08:04.160 --> 0:08:06.640 screens to Shakir or to somebody in the in the 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:09.040 you know, in the slot, and see what they can 0:08:09.080 --> 0:08:10.160 get with their legs. 0:08:11.720 --> 0:08:13.240 But teams have become wise to that. 0:08:13.440 --> 0:08:16.480 Right, so they are not as efficient on first down 0:08:16.480 --> 0:08:18.400 when they throw it as they as you love them 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:21.720 to be. That that is an absolute truth, and that's 0:08:21.760 --> 0:08:23.560 one of the reasons, you know why those numbers are 0:08:23.560 --> 0:08:26.040 what they are. They have not been as efficient in 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:28.400 passing game as they need to be. And I think 0:08:28.440 --> 0:08:31.480 the running game has been their savior to this point 0:08:31.520 --> 0:08:33.280 of the league. And they're and to this point of 0:08:33.280 --> 0:08:36.000 the season and they're leaning on it, and now teams 0:08:36.040 --> 0:08:39.440 are gonna get wise to it. But I don't think 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:42.760 they've They've hit every gear. And even when teams are 0:08:42.760 --> 0:08:45.280 wise to it, this team is good enough to win 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:48.200 if they don't turn it over. 0:08:49.280 --> 0:08:54.040 And despite the disjointed look of the passing game, the 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:56.800 numbers on first down say, when the Bills do throw 0:08:56.840 --> 0:09:00.560 the football, they have been efficient. They rank thirty in 0:09:00.640 --> 0:09:04.200 pass attempts on first down, but they're eighth in passer 0:09:04.280 --> 0:09:07.880 rating at one ten point four, fifth in completion percentage 0:09:07.920 --> 0:09:11.400 at almost seventy two percent, seventh in yards per attempt 0:09:11.440 --> 0:09:15.280 at eight point four, ninth in yards per completion eleven 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:20.240 point seven, but thirty first in yards after catch per 0:09:20.320 --> 0:09:24.640 completion at three point seven. A strange figure knowing overall 0:09:24.679 --> 0:09:27.880 the Bills are eleventh in the NFL in total yards 0:09:27.960 --> 0:09:31.120 after catch thing number three. Could the low yards after 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:34.400 catch figure be part of why they lean toward the 0:09:34.440 --> 0:09:36.720 run game so much on first down you're only getting 0:09:36.720 --> 0:09:39.400 three point seven after the catch, you're averaging five yards 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:39.840 to carry. 0:09:41.040 --> 0:09:43.240 Yeah, there's a lot in this, and not all of 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:46.680 it's pretty I think their propensity to throw the ball 0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:48.920 behind the line of scrimmage so much on first down, 0:09:49.320 --> 0:09:51.800 you know, is and that also plays into the fact 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:54.520 that the defense is playing up to stop the run. 0:09:54.840 --> 0:09:57.040 That they're so head up by the line of scrimmage, 0:09:57.080 --> 0:09:59.679 So that's where the defense is, and you know, they 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:03.480 jump those routes quick. It's hard to make hay against 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:08.640 a team that's set up to defend it. And yeah, 0:10:08.679 --> 0:10:12.000 they just have not been successfully enough throwing the football 0:10:12.040 --> 0:10:14.520 past the line of scrimmage on first down. Yeah, certainly 0:10:14.640 --> 0:10:17.400 the seventy two Yeah, they're completing all their throws, but 0:10:17.440 --> 0:10:19.160 they're behind the line of scrimmage when there's you know, 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:21.680 the guy stands up and catches a pass as quick 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:22.640 as Josh can throw it. 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:25.320 I am perplexed by the seventh in yards per attempt 0:10:25.360 --> 0:10:28.600 at eight point four. That just seems like an unbelievable 0:10:28.600 --> 0:10:30.880 figure for me in light of how the offense has 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:33.040 looked when they throw on first down. There might be 0:10:33.080 --> 0:10:35.960 a play action like the first play of the game 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:39.000 against the Falcons that skews the numbers. The completion of 0:10:39.040 --> 0:10:43.760 Palmer for forty yards, right, that's gonna up that number. Yeah, 0:10:44.120 --> 0:10:46.040 I just don't feel like there's enough of those to 0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:48.480 push that number to eight point four yards per attempt. 0:10:48.520 --> 0:10:49.319 That's a fat number. 0:10:49.360 --> 0:10:50.199 There's not that many. 0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:51.880 I guess it's a small sample. 0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:54.959 You're right, because they're thirtieth in past attempts on first down, 0:10:55.280 --> 0:10:57.360 So it's a small sample skewing the number. 0:10:57.520 --> 0:11:01.520 Yeah, so one big play adds a yard to all 0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:05.440 those other attempts, right, So yeah, it's they just have 0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:07.920 not done it. And I think it's I don't know 0:11:07.960 --> 0:11:11.560 that it's a lack of faith rather than just a 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:13.480 doubling down on what they know they can do and 0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:17.040 they're kind of philosophy of we're gonna score enough points 0:11:17.040 --> 0:11:18.720 that you're gonna have to keep up with us whether 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:20.319 we run it or not, and you're not gonna have 0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:24.199 enough possessions to do that. And that has been you know, 0:11:25.000 --> 0:11:27.240 they're six and three, and I can't think of a 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:30.480 way that's more stark of contrast to tell you why 0:11:30.480 --> 0:11:33.160 they're six and three and they should could be eight 0:11:33.200 --> 0:11:37.560 and one than turnovers. I mean, that's it. If they 0:11:37.559 --> 0:11:39.760 don't turn the ball over in the Patriots game or 0:11:40.120 --> 0:11:44.320 this Miami game, that game is a win, not a loss. 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:47.640 You have a hard time convincing me. Now the Atlanta 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:49.520 game is a is an outlier maybe, but they did 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:51.160 turn it over in that game too twice. 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:51.600 Yep. 0:11:51.920 --> 0:11:54.920 So that's I don't think they're gonna get off of 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:58.560 that philosophy. Now, Fans clamor for you know, a high flying, 0:11:58.720 --> 0:12:02.199 you know, light show from Josh and the defending MVP 0:12:02.320 --> 0:12:05.320 and all these guys and Keon and Shakir and Kincaid 0:12:05.360 --> 0:12:07.720 and let's go and James Cook in the passing game 0:12:08.040 --> 0:12:10.439 and it's all, you know, let's go, no huddle, the 0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:14.320 whole thing, right, But man, they are tough to beat. 0:12:14.600 --> 0:12:19.560 With this philosophy and no turnovers, they are almost impossible 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:19.920 to beat. 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:23.680 Right when the turnovers coming to play, that's when it 0:12:23.679 --> 0:12:24.840 gets a little hairy. 0:12:25.800 --> 0:12:28.120 I think it's just crazy for Bills. 0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:31.320 Fans to accept the fact that this approach, while it 0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:35.600 does win games, seems to put restrict your plates on 0:12:35.720 --> 0:12:36.360 Josh Allen. 0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:38.440 I get it, but I'll say this too, Josh is 0:12:38.480 --> 0:12:39.400 still got that gear. 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:42.600 Yes, but how often is he allowed to go there? 0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:45.880 You don't want him to Well, you don't want anything. 0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:46.880 You want him to hand it. 0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:50.280 Off fifty five times in a way saying not, well, right. 0:12:50.360 --> 0:12:53.199 Nobody, you don't. You don't want your MVP quarterback to 0:12:53.240 --> 0:12:55.559 have put a cape on and lift the world and 0:12:55.920 --> 0:12:59.280 throw it all into the sun to win the game. 0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:04.240 They just and they don't have to, they don't. They 0:13:04.360 --> 0:13:05.959 want him to pull that out if they if he 0:13:06.040 --> 0:13:08.520 has to, okay, great, But that game against Miami, you 0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:10.880 saw him put that cape on a couple of times, 0:13:11.520 --> 0:13:14.920 and you know the fourth and sixteen or the third, 0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:17.360 you know the third and sixteen that he completed all 0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:20.000 that running around for fifteen seconds doing it. You know 0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:27.160 that's that's that's not sustainable. And you know you've got 0:13:27.160 --> 0:13:30.200 it under the under your hood. You don't want to 0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:33.720 make a game plan around that. You just don't. So 0:13:35.080 --> 0:13:38.360 I get it. It's no fun. I mean, we we 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:44.360 took they won the game forty to nine, and Bill's 0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:50.120 fans Carolina were ticked. They were unhad fired, they were 0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:53.800 having people they wanted people fired after a forty to 0:13:54.040 --> 0:14:00.719 nine victory. That's how hard you know? That's so you know, 0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:03.160 I don't know. Bills fans may never get on board 0:14:03.320 --> 0:14:05.679 with this recipe they're using to win games. Well, I 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:07.839 particularly what it looks like it did in Miami and 0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:10.640 against the Patriots, because they turn it over and they lose. 0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:12.079 Yeah, I think. 0:14:12.640 --> 0:14:14.360 I think the other thing that's getting in the way 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:20.520 here is the league and advanced analytics has proven that 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:23.680 even if you don't have an elite receiving corps, passing 0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:26.920 the ball can be a more efficient way to move 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:29.880 the ball, and this stat might convince you of it. 0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:33.120 Despite leading the league in rushing yards per game, the 0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:35.760 Bills ranked sixteenth in the league in the number of 0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:38.000 first downs they generate per rushing attempt. 0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:38.880 On first down. 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:42.000 They get a first down on a first down run 0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:45.160 play thirteen and a half percent of the time, So 0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:47.480 when they run it on first down, thirteen and a 0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:49.640 half percent of the time they get a first down. 0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:53.800 When passing on first down, they move the sticks thirty 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:57.280 six percent of the time. That's almost three times more 0:14:57.360 --> 0:15:01.800 successful in moving the ball and rank sixth highest in 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:05.160 the league. This despite the fact that their receiving corps 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:08.600 isn't a top talent group across the board when compared 0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:12.720 to other teams. Should they try to throw the ball. 0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:15.400 More on first down in the second half of the. 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:18.720 Season, Yeah, I think they need to evolve, no question 0:15:18.800 --> 0:15:20.800 about it. Teams are gonna come up with answers to 0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:24.800 their philosophy. If your offensive line is still healthy, James 0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:28.480 Cook is still playing, you go until they have to 0:15:28.560 --> 0:15:31.600 force you to do something you're not good at. And 0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:33.280 I'm not saying they're not good at it, but if 0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:35.400 their bread and butter is running it on first down 0:15:35.400 --> 0:15:38.840 and they're knocking off five yards a clip, there's no 0:15:38.920 --> 0:15:41.400 reason to start throwing it because it's a safer way 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:44.120 to move the football, and like we've been talking about 0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:47.080 in trumpeting, you're not going to turn it over much. 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:51.240 So if teams force them out of it, yeah, they 0:15:51.280 --> 0:15:55.160 need to have an arsenal to go to philosophy in 0:15:55.200 --> 0:15:57.400 the throwing game to start throwing it on first down. 0:15:58.360 --> 0:16:02.360 And it seems aimfully obvious that a hard play action 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:05.600 Josh under center, turn his back to the defense and 0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:12.440 faking a handoff would do that. Teams attack that as well, 0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:16.160 particularly if under center, they'll send extra people into the 0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:19.120 box and up the field. So if they don't bite 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:21.480 on the playfake, Josh is dead in the pocket. 0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:25.160 Unless they run a boot leg off the play action. 0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:26.880 Right, which we're going to be around as a different store, 0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:28.920 which would be a nice element knowing he likes to 0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:30.880 get out of the pocket anyway. 0:16:31.280 --> 0:16:33.360 But that's that's a wide disparity. 0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:36.400 And again we know throwing on first down is a 0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:39.760 small sample size because they're thirtieth in attempts on throwing 0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:42.040 on first down. But to go from thirteen and a 0:16:42.080 --> 0:16:46.400 half percent success in getting another first down by running 0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:48.680 it on first down and then going to thirty six 0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:52.480 percent success rate throwing the ball, I think it behooves 0:16:52.520 --> 0:16:58.080 the Bills to at least explore more first down throwing opportunities. 0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:00.920 And look, coming out of the Miami game, Joe Brady 0:17:00.960 --> 0:17:04.200 said his one regret was he didn't throw it more 0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:07.720 early in the game based on how their run game 0:17:07.800 --> 0:17:12.560 was operating early on, So almost he got blinded by 0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:14.840 the season long success of the run game to the 0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:15.480 point where. 0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:16.400 He stuck with it. 0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:22.199 Upon review longer than he felt he should have. So 0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:26.560 I'm curious to see what that experience in the Miami 0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:31.119 game does for his play call thinking going forward, particularly 0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:35.560 on first down. Finally, the Bills defense continues to lose 0:17:35.640 --> 0:17:39.040 man games due to injury. Landon Jackson just got in 0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:41.439 the lineup and the last two series and goes on 0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:44.480 injured reserve with a knee injury. Should the player turnover, 0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:50.040 and lack of manpower on defense influence how the offense 0:17:50.160 --> 0:17:52.720 is called. In other words, the defense is shorthanded. Let's 0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:55.480 not have them defend eleven or twelve possessions a game. 0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:58.160 Let's control the clock on offense with our run game, 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:01.400 dominate time of possession, and give our opponent just nine 0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:04.359 or ten possessions for our defense to defend. 0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:05.040 What do you make of that? 0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:09.600 Absolutely, I mean, that's that's what they've been doing or 0:18:09.640 --> 0:18:12.800 trying to in some cases. I think that's one of 0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:15.159 the things Sean McDermott hangs his hat on as a 0:18:15.200 --> 0:18:19.359 head coach. He knows how to make it easier on 0:18:19.400 --> 0:18:23.120 a defense because he was a coordinator, and he's also 0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:25.239 he also knows too, he's smart enough to know when 0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:28.480 he's get When they're game planning for the Bills offense, 0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:32.480 it's a load and that and the Bills offense has 0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:34.600 a lot of weapons and the ability to stay on 0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:40.080 the field offensively and particularly with a running game. I 0:18:40.119 --> 0:18:43.240 think that's that leans right into the strength of where 0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:47.040 your team's at now and also makes it tough on 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:51.160 your opponents offense and defense. So your defense is there, 0:18:51.240 --> 0:18:53.119 the opponent's defense is always going to be under stress 0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:56.199 because you got Josh Allen taking snaps and whatever that 0:18:56.280 --> 0:18:59.840 means to you that he can put pressure on a defense, 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:02.840 seen it his entire career. You add that with a 0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:06.919 running game and an offensive line that's solid and James 0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:09.359 Cook and all of that stuff. Yeah, you got to 0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:12.680 lean on that and this and having the defense going 0:19:12.720 --> 0:19:15.520 through what it's going through on the injury front. I mean, 0:19:15.560 --> 0:19:19.119 that's that is a no brainer to me. That's a 0:19:19.160 --> 0:19:21.679 no brainer. Now, certainly it's exactly what we've seen him 0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:25.320 do even when their defense was healthy, but man, oh Man, 0:19:25.600 --> 0:19:28.720 This offense is the strength of the team. Yeah, and 0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:30.239 they've got to lean into it. 0:19:30.600 --> 0:19:33.760 Yes, And I'm in favor of that as well. And look, 0:19:33.880 --> 0:19:38.800 the defense is starting to get healthier. They'll probably get TJ. 0:19:39.000 --> 0:19:42.480 Sanders off injured reserve, if not this week, certainly next week. 0:19:42.840 --> 0:19:44.879 It looks like Christian Benford will be back in the 0:19:44.920 --> 0:19:47.679 lineup this week. Shaq Thompson looks like he's ready to 0:19:47.720 --> 0:19:51.040 come back from his hamstring injury. Aaron Johnson, Tarren Johnson, 0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:54.040 you know, looks ready to return. So they are getting 0:19:54.119 --> 0:19:56.800 healthier on that side of the ball. If you feel 0:19:56.880 --> 0:20:01.840 they are deficient or incapable of of effectively stopping a 0:20:01.840 --> 0:20:06.240 given opponent on a regular basis, yeah, reduce that team's 0:20:06.280 --> 0:20:10.160 number of possessions by controlling the clock long sustained drives 0:20:10.400 --> 0:20:13.520 on offense. I just don't want them to go to 0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:18.359 the lengths where they're compromising maybe what they feel will 0:20:18.359 --> 0:20:22.280 work best for them against that opposing defense, you know, 0:20:22.400 --> 0:20:25.480 because they're so concerned about their own defense holding up. 0:20:25.800 --> 0:20:28.600 I don't think they've gone that far. I just don't 0:20:28.640 --> 0:20:31.400 want it to get to that point. If that makes sense, 0:20:31.400 --> 0:20:33.920 they still got to do what you do on offense, 0:20:34.560 --> 0:20:36.920