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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Hello, Welcome to the Action Over podcast at UFC Betting Preview.

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Speaker 1: I'm sean Zerilla joint today by Billy Ward to help

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Speaker 1: you break down all fight card be national. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: be our best bets, favorite underdogs, top drops, and more than.

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Speaker 1: If you'd like to tell some of the bets that

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Speaker 1: we discuss on today's show, you can find Blick Slipplin

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Speaker 1: folding the podcast in the video description or is it

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Speaker 1: actionower dot com slash bet Now. The main event a

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Speaker 1: heavyweight back between Garret Lewis coming in at about a

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Speaker 1: plus two to fifty underdog and gets Talis and to

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Speaker 1: share a minus three hundred tight is minus one thousand

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Speaker 1: and inside the distance the over under one and a

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Speaker 1: half rounds, sitting at about plus one eighty five to

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Speaker 1: the over minus twenty five to the under to Shera

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Speaker 1: getting a very quick main event spot here just two

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Speaker 1: UFC bouts, including one on the Tender Series. He's never

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Speaker 1: been passed the four minute mark in his professional career,

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Speaker 1: just eight career fights Lewis. This is his thirteenth main

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Speaker 1: event or five round fight in the UFC. This is

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Speaker 1: thirtieth career UFC bout. He has fifteen career knockouts in

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Speaker 1: the UFC, which is a record. Again to Shia has

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Speaker 1: eight career fight so the experience differential is substantial. To

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Speaker 1: Shera is the bigger athlete, the faster man, though four

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Speaker 1: inches taller, foreign treach advantage, and also about fourteen and

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Speaker 1: a half years younger, and as we regularly cite on

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Speaker 1: this show, when there is that substantial of an age

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Speaker 1: gap between MMA opponents, the younger fighter is typically undervalued.

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Speaker 1: There's at least a decade between UFC opponents, the younger

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Speaker 1: fighter wins about twelve percent more than the markets. Facts

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Speaker 1: there are close to I think there's about ninety nine

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Speaker 1: fights where there's a fourteen year age gap between opponents

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Speaker 1: and the younger fighter is seventy seven and twenty two.

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Speaker 1: So winning at about a seventy seven percent clip com

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Speaker 1: bear to average OVS of minus one point forty when

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Speaker 1: there's at least a fourteen year age gap. When it's

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Speaker 1: closer to ten years, it's closer to a seventy percent clip.

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Speaker 1: But ultimately, the way I'm betting this fight is for

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Speaker 1: to share, just to start out a little bit more

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Speaker 1: measured early on against such a powerful knockout artist. The

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Speaker 1: over half a round combined with the SHIA is minus

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Speaker 1: one sixteen on the same game parlay, which I think

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Speaker 1: is pretty good value. But you could combine that with

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Speaker 1: the under four and a half rounds as well and

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Speaker 1: ultimately get lost money on that ticket. So the same

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Speaker 1: game parlay to share a over half a round and

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Speaker 1: the under four and a half rounds can't finish fight

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Speaker 1: and for two and a half minutes, but have to

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Speaker 1: finish the fight before the final two and a half minutes,

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Speaker 1: and ultimately I do think he gets Lewis and the

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Speaker 1: latter half of round one for the early part of

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Speaker 1: round two. How I think he does it in the

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Speaker 1: clinch with knees to the body. Lewis typically pretty durable

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Speaker 1: to the head, but the knee or any strikes to

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Speaker 1: the body, any strikes to the legs do tend to

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Speaker 1: wear on him attritionally and wear him down fairly quickly.

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Speaker 1: So obviously hunter Chan says he does against any opponent.

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Speaker 1: I just do think given the spot, given the age gap,

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Speaker 1: given the athleticism differential between these two to share A

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Speaker 1: is likely to finish him. I think even on the

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Speaker 1: money line to share A, I would harlay him, probably

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Speaker 1: up to minus three hundred. That's said, you know, a

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Speaker 1: guy who's never been out of round one looks like

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Speaker 1: he should be able to sustain it given athleticism. But

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Speaker 1: Billy any thoughts on live betting Derrick Lewis after round

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Speaker 1: one if he's able to withstand some damage just because

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Speaker 1: of the experience upside. I know he's not a guy

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Speaker 1: who's likely to last super long fight, but he didn't

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Speaker 1: pull off a comfort behind knockout in his last win.

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Speaker 1: You think there's a chance he could do that again

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Speaker 1: in this fight against the guy who's both relatively inexperience

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Speaker 1: but also has never been out of the first round.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that would make some sense to me.

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Speaker 3: Also famously had the like last second knockout of was

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Speaker 3: that Volkov or Pavlovitch? Yep, yeah, Volcoff. So you know,

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Speaker 3: like it's in the wheelhouse. He doesn't do a lot right,

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Speaker 3: Like he throws single heavy shots, and you can kind

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Speaker 3: of do that for a long time, even if you're tired.

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Speaker 3: You can sell throw your arm once, you know, not

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Speaker 3: a very like cardio intensive style. So a guy who's

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Speaker 3: going to fade as much as we normally think of

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Speaker 3: with power punchers. That makes some sense to me. I'm

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Speaker 3: actually taking a little bit of a sprinkle at Derek

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Speaker 3: Lewis's money line, though it's a huge step up for

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Speaker 3: talis In tech Shara. His best opponent before getting to

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Speaker 3: the UFC was two and one. The guy he fought

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Speaker 3: on the Contender series was a former welterweight who hadn't

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Speaker 3: fought in like four years and then was fighting heavyweight.

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Speaker 3: So like clearly just fed to tech Shara and then

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Speaker 3: he'd beat Justin Tafa in his UFC debut. We have

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Speaker 3: no idea if he actually looks athletic or good against

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Speaker 3: anyone competent now that there's a ton of great heavyweight

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Speaker 3: MMA fighters around to prove that against. But Derek Lewis

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Speaker 3: just a big step up. Interesting stat I heard from

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Speaker 3: a former colleague of ours, Dan Tom Lewis is three

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Speaker 3: to zero against fighters six seven or taller, which is

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Speaker 3: probably pretty noisy, but basically he can get up there,

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Speaker 3: he can reach with that big overhand, right. I think

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Speaker 3: the way he punches and the way he kind of

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Speaker 3: loops actually does lend to him landing better against taller

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Speaker 3: fighters than when he has to throw in a straight

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Speaker 3: line or downed opponents. So I don't think it's totally

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Speaker 3: just varianced. There's obviously a little bit of, you know,

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Speaker 3: just happenstance in that stat the other bat and I

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Speaker 3: like this one considerably more than my Lewis sprinkle. Is

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Speaker 3: the fight to start a round two at plus one

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Speaker 3: ten one hundred percent agree with you, Teshera should come

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Speaker 3: out fairly cautiously here, stay at range, just kind of

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Speaker 3: look to pick him apart and build some cage time,

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Speaker 3: right Like, you're already in the main event. You don't

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Speaker 3: want to find yourself in a situation where you're fighting

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Speaker 3: for a title with like eight total minutes of UFC experience.

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Speaker 3: That hasn't gone well when it's happened with guys we've seen,

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Speaker 3: like Sergey Pavlovitch, very limited cage experience did not go

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Speaker 3: well against upper level oppositions. So if I'm in his camp,

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Speaker 3: I'm telling him, like, hey, take your time, build some experience,

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Speaker 3: you know, get a feel for what you're doing. Play

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Speaker 3: it safe. Not that I think Derek Lewis is gonna

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Speaker 3: play it safe. Or has even the ability to do

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Speaker 3: so if he wanted to. But if take Share is

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Speaker 3: controlling the range, he's got that height and reached I

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Speaker 3: think you know it plus money for a fight to

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Speaker 3: even start round two, that's a fun one. Last little

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Speaker 3: note on Derek Lewis, I said in my luck ratings

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Speaker 3: this week, we have no idea if he's even like

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Speaker 3: been training before a fight at any moment, Like sometimes

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Speaker 3: he just shows up and doesn't really care. We're recording

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Speaker 3: a little bit later and the fight's on the East Coast,

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Speaker 3: so we already saw Wayns. He looked pretty good. He

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Speaker 3: looked like he's at least been exercising. I can't say

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Speaker 3: for sure that he's you know, putting in tons of

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Speaker 3: rounds on the match or whatever, but he's not. He's

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Speaker 3: gone for a jog. He might be hit, lifted some

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Speaker 3: weights and hit a bag. So that's also a slight,

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Speaker 3: slight positive for Derek Lewis. But again we never really know.

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Speaker 1: I think Lewis's best chance is actually for him to

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Speaker 1: start see regress it particularly to Share is going to

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Speaker 1: start a little bit conservatively. We often see Lewis when

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Speaker 1: he's backing up get picked park, get beaten up a

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Speaker 1: little bit. That's when he's taking the issuational damage in

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Speaker 1: these main events. You know, when he's fighting guys I

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Speaker 1: think back to daukas fight. When he's fighting guys who

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Speaker 1: are a little bit less experience in him, will he

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Speaker 1: can bum rush and just scare the rabbat is like,

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Speaker 1: oh my god, this guy has the most knockouts in

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Speaker 1: UFC history and he's running at me. Why is he

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Speaker 1: running at me? And I think that would just scare

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Speaker 1: absolutely any of these guys, but especially the guy's with

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Speaker 1: less experience, you know, who have under ten professional fights.

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Speaker 1: You put him in there against this prolific knockout artist

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Speaker 1: and he started rushing them. I think it can cause

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Speaker 1: some panic. So if to share is a little bit

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Speaker 1: more conservative in this fight Lewis starts aggressively, he might

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Speaker 1: be able to get in there and potentially hurt him.

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Speaker 1: Just looking back to share his past fight, he's very

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Speaker 1: much willing to take one in order to give one.

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Speaker 1: Derek Lewis is not the kind of guy that you

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Speaker 1: do that against the talking so very aggressive, pressure oriented fighter.

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Speaker 1: When he amplifies the pressure, that is going to be

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Speaker 1: the main question in this fight, because I don't think

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Speaker 1: he's going to be as wrested from the opening bell

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Speaker 1: as he would be, but that actually may be to

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Speaker 1: his detriment. Derek Lewis could be the aggressor from there,

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Speaker 1: potentially causing problems. That said, you know, I'm very impressed

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Speaker 1: by we haven't seen him against this level of competition,

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Speaker 1: but just watching him move around the cage, I think

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Speaker 1: to share a moves very well. I think he's a

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Speaker 1: very good athlete with a ton of potential. Whether he

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Speaker 1: can sustain that movement that let us in that quickness

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Speaker 1: into the second or fourth rounds, we have absolutely no idea.

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Speaker 1: I mean, people in the training room with him really do.

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Speaker 1: But he does seem to have the tools to be

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Speaker 1: a potential player in this division. It's just a matter

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Speaker 1: of getting more experience and improving it inside of the cage.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on to our favorite underdogs on this card,

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Speaker 1: because there's a few that we've really got circled that

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Speaker 1: we're particularly interested in. I'm sorry, We're gonna move on

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Speaker 1: to a fight of the night for this weekend. Another

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Speaker 1: big age gap between Steven Wander, Roy Thompson and Gabriel

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Speaker 1: Bon team about another fourteen year difference in age between

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Speaker 1: these two fighters Don minus four to sixty on the

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Speaker 1: money line, wonder Boy about plus three fifty. This fight, though,

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Speaker 1: is relatively normal to go to a decision about plus

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Speaker 1: one thirty GTD minus one to eighty NZIPD, which roughly

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Speaker 1: lines up with the welterweight divisional average. We're both looking

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Speaker 1: at bon Fime to potentially win this fight early, though

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Speaker 1: against a much older opponent. He is typically a fast

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Speaker 1: starter and the party attentiveate the longer the fight goes

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Speaker 1: really powerful early on, but also able to transition from

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Speaker 1: hurting his opponents into growing on submission attempts from those

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Speaker 1: those wabbles, those knockdowns completely thereafter. So I do think

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Speaker 1: the prices on bon Theme to win by submission may

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Speaker 1: be a little bit short, because he does tend to

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Speaker 1: go from hurting opponents to trying to submit them relatively quickly.

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Speaker 1: I actually think there may be some value on his

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Speaker 1: knockout prop here, but we both like Bonfime to win

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Speaker 1: in rounds one or two at plus one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: I think you could take a round one stab as

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Speaker 1: well well at plus two to fifty, and then after

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Speaker 1: round one if he's not able to put Thompson away.

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Speaker 1: I would be interested in betting wonder Boy live after

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Speaker 1: round one, primarily because even in his fight against Jaquem Buckley,

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Speaker 1: WonderBoy is winning minutes in that matchup, and if he's

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Speaker 1: not going to get grappled, or if bon Fema is

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Speaker 1: not going to have success grappling and this fight does

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Speaker 1: extend plays out on the beat, I think wonder Boy

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Speaker 1: remains a tricky stylistic matchup for any fighter. He goes

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Speaker 1: against three inch reach advantage, that very awkward, blated style.

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Speaker 1: But Jon Team is able to grapple, he should be

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Speaker 1: able to cover his price tag here. So you're an

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Speaker 1: agreement von Fiema round one or round two of plus

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Speaker 1: one twenty five, and do you have any interesting live

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Speaker 1: betting wonder Boy after round one he's still there?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe, I think I'd probably wait till I want

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Speaker 3: to see how the grappling looks. I'm just really concerned.

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Speaker 3: Thompson has been taken down in five straight fights. He's

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Speaker 3: one in four in those fights. He really should be

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Speaker 3: zero to five, but Kevin Holland kept taking him down

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Speaker 3: and then just letting him up because they miss to

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Speaker 3: not take each other down or whatever, like because he

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Speaker 3: just did Kevin Holland stuff. That's the only fight that

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Speaker 3: Thompson has won since twenty twenty, so almost five years

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Speaker 3: at this point. Not a great sign, especially since he's

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Speaker 3: been finished in the last two and is forty two

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Speaker 3: years old. So I'm not I'm not gonna go out

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Speaker 3: of my way to make sure I get a live

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Speaker 3: bet in on Steven Thompson if it looks like he's

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Speaker 3: defending some takedowns or getting back up after one or

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Speaker 3: two and we get a big price. I kind of

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Speaker 3: need both those things to happen because I want to

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Speaker 3: see those takedowns where on bomb theme right, like BOMBFIM

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Speaker 3: spend a bunch of energy, but not get a lot

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Speaker 3: out of them, and then I have to keep fighting.

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Speaker 3: That's the scenario I think where he could take over.

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Speaker 3: But you know, Bombfeme won a decision against and LUSA

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Speaker 3: looked pretty good. His cardio looked better in that fight.

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Speaker 3: I think he's improved and made himself a little bit

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Speaker 3: more patient and a little bit more I just paced

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Speaker 3: himself a little bit better since his early UFC run.

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Speaker 3: He came in as an undefeated fighter who had finished

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Speaker 3: like pretty much everyone he had ever fought. Of course,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna come out guns blazing. Took that laid in

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Speaker 3: the fight against Nicholas Delby. I think that really helped

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Speaker 3: him kind of just retool what he's doing here, which

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Speaker 3: is why I like having the round two in there

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Speaker 3: and not just round one, and why I'm not entirely

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Speaker 3: convinced that I'm gonna lie bet Steven Thompson unless a

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Speaker 3: very specific scenario plays out.

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Speaker 1: Move on to our favorite underdogs for this week. You

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Speaker 1: try to get to it a touch early bar part

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Speaker 1: of the night. We'll go there now my time. Yeah, absolutely,

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Speaker 1: you know, let's let's start with a guy that you've

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Speaker 1: bet on in the past, and I'm curious if you're

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Speaker 1: interested in betting on Austin Lane again this weekend because

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Speaker 1: it is a big, juicy number at about plus five

258
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Speaker 1: hundred against me for Rotrino, and Petrino has generally been

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Speaker 1: a fraud of the UFC. He couldn't finish Tyson Pedro,

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Speaker 1: he lost as a big favorite against Anthony Smith, got

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Speaker 1: KOed by Justin Joby. He was even losing his fight

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Speaker 1: to Marcine Primeia before getting that round three minis in

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Speaker 1: that fight. So going against Austin Lane, who's a bigger man,

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Speaker 1: breaches taller, reached to reach at and toorncha taller moving

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Speaker 1: up to heavyweight against Lane, who is not the best fighter,

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Speaker 1: but I think capable of at least surviving and hanging

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Speaker 1: around with a guy who's moving up from light heavyweight.

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Speaker 1: I do you think there's a still advantage obviously for Patrino?

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Speaker 1: The line reflects that, but overall, he just doesn't seem

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Speaker 1: to have the aggressive finishing mentality that you would expect

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Speaker 1: from a guy who looks like he does. He looks

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Speaker 1: like a villain in a Bond movie. He just doesn't

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Speaker 1: seem to fight like that and doesn't seem to be

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Speaker 1: covering the market price tags that are being set for him.

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Speaker 1: So I like the over in this matchup between Lane

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Speaker 1: and Patrino, the over one and a half rounds of

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Speaker 1: plus one oh five. I also like to fight to

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Speaker 1: go to a decision at about plus four hundred. I

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Speaker 1: make that GTD line about plus three thirty five, and

280
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Speaker 1: I'm interested in strickling Lane as well at about five

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Speaker 1: to one. Philly, I would imagine you're probably with me

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Speaker 1: on the over one and a half of anything here,

283
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Speaker 1: But any interest in either the GTD or Lanes moneyline

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Speaker 1: in this matchup.

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Speaker 3: I am not betting those myself because of the bet

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Speaker 3: I found, which I think is a necessary condition for

287
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Speaker 3: Lane to win or the fight to go long, and

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Speaker 3: that's Austin Lane to get a takedown at plus two

289
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Speaker 3: to fifty. I think if he just stands in front

290
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Speaker 3: of Vito or Petrino, who is much faster, has been

291
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Speaker 3: striking way longer, much more technical, he's gonna have a

292
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Speaker 3: bad time. But just to get a single takedown at

293
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Speaker 3: plus two to fifty is almost like, unless it's Derek

294
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Speaker 3: Lewis or somebody like that, that's almost just you could blind

295
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Speaker 3: bet that in most fights and feel pretty good about it.

296
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Speaker 3: Lane has four takedowns in his last three fights, has

297
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Speaker 3: taken down two of those opponents. Tried to take down

298
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Speaker 3: Mario Pinto a couple times but was unable to do so.

299
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Speaker 3: I think Petrino is going to be a lot easier

300
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Speaker 3: to take down than Mario Pinto was, and we saw

301
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Speaker 3: Petrino lose in the grappling against Anthony Smith, so that

302
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Speaker 3: should be the game plan for Austin Lane. His only

303
00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:42,960
Speaker 3: UFC win was because he just tackled Rebella Daspani a

304
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Speaker 3: bunch of times. I think I like both her bets.

305
00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:47,600
Speaker 3: I you know, if I had to pick those and

306
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Speaker 3: couldn't take this prop, absolutely would. I just think for

307
00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:52,440
Speaker 3: any of those things to happen, he's got to get

308
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Speaker 3: a takedown, and he can get a takedown but then

309
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Speaker 3: later get knocked out, or the fight not to go

310
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Speaker 3: over one and a half or any of those other things.

311
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Speaker 3: So plus two to fifty on the O half a takedown.

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Speaker 3: I am realizing I technically put this in the wrong

313
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Speaker 3: spot of our show sheets, and my apologies to you,

314
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Speaker 3: but I wanted to do that because I knew we'd

315
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Speaker 3: both be talking about him in the underdog section, and

316
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Speaker 3: it's plus money, so it's still an underdog pick even

317
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Speaker 3: if it's not a money line.

318
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Speaker 1: No, that's that's a great bet. I think Lane almost

319
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Speaker 1: needs a takedown in order for this fight to go

320
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Speaker 1: to go to a decision at the midium. He's going

321
00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:23,800
Speaker 1: to need extended page control probably in order to do that,

322
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Speaker 1: and I think Petrino could fight him off on the plint.

323
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Speaker 1: It's a matter of getting taken down, getting held on

324
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Speaker 1: his back, pock being killed out a little bit in there,

325
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Speaker 1: so yeah, I think that's a very sharp bet. Lane

326
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Speaker 1: takedown a plus two to fifty. I think you need

327
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Speaker 1: that in order to hit the GTD or the over.

328
00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:39,320
Speaker 1: I think if you could same game parlay that, you

329
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Speaker 1: know you're able to find that or the GTD. Obviously

330
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Speaker 1: they let you do all those exactly because the fight,

331
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Speaker 1: you know, the longer fight goes, the more likely the

332
00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:51,840
Speaker 1: more chances you ever take down. You're not going to

333
00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:53,800
Speaker 1: give you the ability to do that. But any sort

334
00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:59,840
Speaker 1: of overs on this fight, overtakedowns, over sniffing, strikes, things

335
00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:02,000
Speaker 1: things like that, I think everything will be a little

336
00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:04,440
Speaker 1: bit low based upon how I expect this to want

337
00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:06,400
Speaker 1: to play out. Lane is not a good shain, but Patrino,

338
00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:08,920
Speaker 1: as I said, couldn't even finish Tyson Pedro. I think

339
00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:12,560
Speaker 1: he's finishing abilities just in general, a little bit overrated.

340
00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,000
Speaker 1: He looks like a big, tough, strong dude moving up

341
00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:18,080
Speaker 1: to heavyweight now going to be a little bit toughers

342
00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:21,080
Speaker 1: away when he hasn't done it at two five. Also

343
00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:24,400
Speaker 1: curious to see what he looks like basically on the scales.

344
00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:26,360
Speaker 1: I know he weighed in at about two forty five,

345
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Speaker 1: but I didn't actually see what looked like he was

346
00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:33,360
Speaker 1: never a guy who had great cardio at light heavyweight either,

347
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Speaker 1: So it's really a trade off of like is he

348
00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:39,000
Speaker 1: going to look better not having cutting weight, or is

349
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:42,160
Speaker 1: he just going to look chubby and you know, like

350
00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:45,120
Speaker 1: not in shape because he didn't cut weight. There's there's

351
00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:47,120
Speaker 1: always that trade off when guys move up from two

352
00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:50,040
Speaker 1: oh five to heavyweight as well. So what are your

353
00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:52,400
Speaker 1: thoughts on him potentially adding forty pounds here? Do you

354
00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:54,280
Speaker 1: think it helps his gas? Saying? Do you think to

355
00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:56,520
Speaker 1: seed with you over that?

356
00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,040
Speaker 3: That is the crucial question for a couple of fights

357
00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:00,680
Speaker 3: on this card, because we have got going in both

358
00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:04,440
Speaker 3: directions from heavyweight to light heavyweight. I truly don't know.

359
00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:08,040
Speaker 3: I was surprised though, Patrino weighed in heavier than Austin

360
00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:12,080
Speaker 3: Lane by like three or four pounds, which that scares

361
00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:14,240
Speaker 3: me a little bit, just because I'd like to see

362
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:16,480
Speaker 3: like we saw it with Johnson Almato where he came

363
00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:18,560
Speaker 3: in at like two twenty five as first one, then

364
00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:20,760
Speaker 3: two thirty five, like he kind of gradually built up

365
00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:22,719
Speaker 3: to it and now all of a sudden, like in

366
00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:25,000
Speaker 3: the cage, he's probably gonna be twenty pounds heavier than

367
00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:27,199
Speaker 3: he's ever fought before. That's a lot extra weight to

368
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:29,720
Speaker 3: carry and probably does hurt you the later the fight

369
00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,600
Speaker 3: goes on. So I'm not, as you pointed out, like

370
00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:36,720
Speaker 3: does not cutting the weight outweigh being heavier pun intended

371
00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:40,760
Speaker 3: there maybe, but like given how rapidly he put all

372
00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:42,480
Speaker 3: that weight on, I don't love it. I like when

373
00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:44,560
Speaker 3: guys do a little bit more of a gradual even

374
00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:47,400
Speaker 3: Kennedy and as a truck will who will talk about shortly.

375
00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,280
Speaker 3: I believe kind of had a transitional fight where he

376
00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:53,439
Speaker 3: weighed in in between the two when he first came

377
00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:55,480
Speaker 3: up to heavyweight. I could be wrong on that. He

378
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,960
Speaker 3: was two forty one his first heavyweight fight and two

379
00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:01,080
Speaker 3: thirty six, so he's you know, I'm not quite as big,

380
00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,480
Speaker 3: not getting quite as heavy as Vitor Petrino, which I

381
00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:05,440
Speaker 3: think is probably the way to do it, or to

382
00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:06,600
Speaker 3: put that weight on gradually.

383
00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,119
Speaker 1: Yes, taking at cunning and zech Food waited in a

384
00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:12,280
Speaker 1: two thirty eight for his fight against Walter Walker, Walker

385
00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:14,879
Speaker 1: coming in at forty four and a half pounds, so

386
00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:17,280
Speaker 1: slight weight advantage for Walter Walker, but he does have

387
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:20,840
Speaker 1: all the grappling upside in this matchup. Why I like

388
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:23,159
Speaker 1: him at plus money he came at about plus one

389
00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:25,800
Speaker 1: to eighty five, like him down to about plus one seventy,

390
00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:28,760
Speaker 1: and I also like his submission prop at plus six

391
00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:32,800
Speaker 1: fifty as well. Kennedy is the color longer fighter five

392
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:35,840
Speaker 1: entre each advantage. He is a better striker as well,

393
00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:38,199
Speaker 1: but as I said, Walker has all the grappling upside

394
00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 1: in this matchup. He attempts about sixty downs for five

395
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,040
Speaker 1: minutes spent at distance. Kennedy's a good takedown on the

396
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:48,480
Speaker 1: defense in his career eighty three percent, but controlled just

397
00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,840
Speaker 1: fifty percent of positions on the ground. Walker is controlled

398
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:55,359
Speaker 1: ninety four percent of grappling positions. So if Walker is

399
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:57,320
Speaker 1: able to get him down, I think he keeps him

400
00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:00,520
Speaker 1: down for extended control time. If not finishing to fight

401
00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,119
Speaker 1: be a submission. I also like this fight to end

402
00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:06,400
Speaker 1: inside the distance at minus one fifty as well. Projected

403
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:10,240
Speaker 1: that Closter to minus one seventy five. Kenny absolutely finished

404
00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:13,680
Speaker 1: Walker on the feet, in addition to getting finished himself

405
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,120
Speaker 1: on the mats. Billy Walker money line two about plus

406
00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:19,960
Speaker 1: one seventy sub plus six to fifty ends inside the

407
00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:22,560
Speaker 1: distance the minus one fifty Any of those three bets

408
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:23,600
Speaker 1: you like on this matchup.

409
00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:26,199
Speaker 3: The sub for sure. I was trying to look up

410
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,919
Speaker 3: while you were talking if anyone had these specific submission

411
00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:31,719
Speaker 3: method bets, because he's won two in a row Man

412
00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,680
Speaker 3: heel book. Yeah, I couldn't find it on any books

413
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 3: right now as I was looking. If I was gonna

414
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:38,960
Speaker 3: beat this one, i'd probably just bet the heel hook

415
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,440
Speaker 3: crop just kind of for the bit at this point,

416
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:44,119
Speaker 3: because you'd think it'd have to be like plus ten

417
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:46,359
Speaker 3: thousand or something if we were setting fair odds, which

418
00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:48,720
Speaker 3: maybe they're onto that. But yeah, I think the sub

419
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:52,679
Speaker 3: is the sharpest of those. Kennedy should probably win a

420
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:55,280
Speaker 3: decision just by out pointing him on the feet, got

421
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:57,120
Speaker 3: a lot of height and reach. It was a better striker.

422
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:00,720
Speaker 3: Don't really see Walter Walker kno out. He could knock

423
00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:02,400
Speaker 3: them out on the ground, I suppose, but don't see

424
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:05,000
Speaker 3: it happening standing. So I think the submission should be

425
00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:07,960
Speaker 3: a bigger proportion of his win condition. So I like

426
00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,160
Speaker 3: that one again. It'd be fun if you got another

427
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:13,960
Speaker 3: heel hook because we've seen so few in the past,

428
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:15,760
Speaker 3: like ten years, and I think pretty much all of

429
00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 3: them are of Alter Walker and Ryan Hall.

430
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:20,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of people drop for them. Walker is

431
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:23,000
Speaker 1: the only guy who's been able to actually finish a

432
00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:26,040
Speaker 1: fight with it looking for a heavyweight fight to finish.

433
00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:27,679
Speaker 1: By the way, as I said, this fight is used

434
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:31,080
Speaker 1: to end inside the distance. The main event between Lewis

435
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:33,840
Speaker 1: and Tashera is used to end inside the distance. We

436
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 1: haven't had a heavyweight fight finish since March fifteen to

437
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:40,240
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, three months since we've had a heavyweight

438
00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:43,680
Speaker 1: finish in the UFC, I believe over twenty fights i've occurred.

439
00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:46,119
Speaker 1: A lot of those have gone over. Part of the

440
00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:49,360
Speaker 1: reason I'm continuing to bet these heavyweight overs. They've gone

441
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:52,640
Speaker 1: to decision about a forty eight percent clip three round

442
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:54,960
Speaker 1: heavyweight fights. Over the past three years, the UFC has

443
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,400
Speaker 1: cut a lot of their heavyweights. The division is much

444
00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:59,679
Speaker 1: smaller now, much less talented than it used to be.

445
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 1: A lot of guys getting called up like Alvin Hines

446
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,000
Speaker 1: last week. A lot of guys getting brought up regionally

447
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:10,679
Speaker 1: don't necessarily belong there, but are fighting guys who are not, like,

448
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 1: you know, absolute world beaters because they division down so deeply.

449
00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:18,920
Speaker 1: So Yeah, just in general, the heavyweight division not nearly

450
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:20,679
Speaker 1: as good as it used to be, but as a result,

451
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 1: the finishes just are not materializing either. But this is

452
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 1: one matchup that looks pretty binary. I think a finish

453
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 1: is likely to occur. Another matchup that I think a

454
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 1: finish could occur, though, it is a fight that is

455
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 1: used to go to a decision. But Jake Matthews against

456
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 1: Cheaty and Jawani Cheaty three inches taller seven inch each advantage.

457
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:43,160
Speaker 1: He's humongous for wealthweight. But Matthews should have the grappling

458
00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:45,360
Speaker 1: advantage in this fight. I'm just not sure whether he's

459
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 1: going to be able to take Cheady down. Cheaty is

460
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 1: absolutely humongous, undefeated at one hundred and seventy pounds. You though,

461
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 1: like the underdog in this matchup, Jake Matthews at about

462
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 1: plus one point in a fight that open closer to

463
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 1: a pick them, You're done waiting this line to continue

464
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,639
Speaker 1: to go up, I assume. So where's your price target

465
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:04,920
Speaker 1: on Matthews? What are you betting a down?

466
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think I need the plus one thirty. I'm

467
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,160
Speaker 3: assuming it'll still creep up a little bit. I think

468
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 3: I don't know why it would suddenly reverse last minute here.

469
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,639
Speaker 3: I think anything north of plus one twenty or so.

470
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 3: I know Cheaty is undefeated at welterweight and like the

471
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,159
Speaker 3: results have been solid, but he hasn't looked great, like

472
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 3: you need a split decision to beat Reese McKee. Decision

473
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 3: against Jared Gooden not very confidence inspiring. And then he

474
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 3: missed weight against Elizar Zeleski Dos Santos, who is very

475
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 3: very old when that fight happened. Uh thirty eight yeh.

476
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 3: Cheaty's also getting up there in years, and I don't

477
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,400
Speaker 3: love these tall, long guys cutting so much weight as

478
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 3: they get older, Like I worry about durability and like

479
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:50,439
Speaker 3: injury type stuff. Corey hill Style Anderson Silva another tall,

480
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 3: lanky guy for the division who cut a good amount

481
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 3: of weight that concerns me. Although it looks just came

482
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 3: in the Cheaty missed weight again, so maybe he's not

483
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,440
Speaker 3: actually cutting that weight to make one seventy I will

484
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 3: say this is the kind of way and weight missed

485
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 3: that I like to bet against. He was one seventy

486
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:09,919
Speaker 3: one and a half. That means he didn't give up.

487
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 3: He was desperately trying to make it. He knew he

488
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 3: missed the last time. He knew people are gonna be

489
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 3: mad at him. He drained himself to the absolute maximum

490
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:18,880
Speaker 3: and missed by half a pound. That is a lot

491
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:21,639
Speaker 3: different than when a guy stops cutting it one seventy

492
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 3: four or whatever and just says, screw it. I'll give

493
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 3: him my twenty percent. This is the kind that actually

494
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:29,919
Speaker 3: really does benefit the opponent. Jake Matthews fairly durable if

495
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 3: he doesn't get knocked out early by CHETI I think

496
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 3: he should take over pretty easily here, especially with the

497
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 3: weight cutting factor. Also makes him a good live bet.

498
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 3: But yeah, I'm feeling better about my Jake Matthews bet

499
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 3: seeing this way in results than I was when I

500
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 3: made it a couple hours ago.

501
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll absolutely be betting Matthews live after round one.

502
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 1: Considering Getie's weight Manu Chet He's never had the best

503
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 1: cardio is super dangerous given the size, but the weightcut

504
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,240
Speaker 1: should drain some of that power and was certainly for

505
00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,920
Speaker 1: his salmona down the stretch as well. Jack Matthews live

506
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 1: after round one once he figures out reach advantage take

507
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 1: over that fight down the stretch. One more underdog play,

508
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:09,439
Speaker 1: which is also going to lead into one of my

509
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 1: props for this weekend. That's Nate land where Nate the

510
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 1: train I've lost twenty against Morgan Sharier at minus two seventy.

511
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 1: Nate is from Clarkstill, Tennessee, which is just an hour

512
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 1: outside of National, so I'm sure we'll have people in

513
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,159
Speaker 1: the building, but the crowd will also be behind him

514
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 1: as well, and for that reason, I think he's a

515
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 1: good bet to both win by decision of plus four

516
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 1: or fifty and to win by split decision at ten

517
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:35,439
Speaker 1: to one with the home crowd behind him. As a

518
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 1: high volume, high paced fighter going against Sharier, who tends

519
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,880
Speaker 1: to be a little bit low volume times land we're

520
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 1: out lands opponents or Land where Lands about five point

521
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 1: six strikes per minute at distance, Sharier about four point eight,

522
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 1: So I do think Landward should have a slight volume

523
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 1: edge in this matchup. Sharier a little bit more efficient

524
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 1: with his strikes, a little bit better defensively, and does

525
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 1: carry a little bit more power. But I'll take home

526
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,920
Speaker 1: doown fighter on the decision props as I said, plus

527
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 1: four to fifty to win by decision ten to one.

528
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 1: The win by decision for NATA train. You're just gonna

529
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,639
Speaker 1: go ahead though, and take the train on the money line.

530
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,159
Speaker 1: Should have some submission upside here. I don't know if

531
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 1: he can knock out Cherrier, but should be a high

532
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 1: paced fight, relatively high variance. You like Nate the Train

533
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 1: on the money line? Where do you like him down to?

534
00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 3: I don't know if you're not betting Nate the Train here,

535
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,400
Speaker 3: Like this sport isn't for you? Right? It's Nate land

536
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 3: where in Tennessee. He's the most fun dude. I would

537
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:33,199
Speaker 3: have like, we all want to see him get on

538
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 3: the mic in Tennessee of all places first of all.

539
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 3: So I was never not going to bet Nate land

540
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 3: where in this spot, kind of regardless. I did watch

541
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 3: some tape on it, though, so this isn't me coming

542
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 3: in totally blind. A couple things I noticed Cherrier in

543
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 3: the UFC is either one by knockout or lost decisions.

544
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 3: If you look at Nate Landweer's record, there's a couple

545
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:55,920
Speaker 3: of knockout losses on there. One was a kind of

546
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 3: fluky flying knee. The last one against Douhu Troi. He

547
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 3: didn't really get knocked out. He didn't even take that

548
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 3: much damage. He was just stuck in bottom crucifix and

549
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 3: it was very obvious he wasn't going to get out,

550
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 3: so the ref jump in and saved him. At the

551
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 3: end of the fight. Rumor has it he was both

552
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 3: sick and dealing with a broken hand in that fight,

553
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 3: which if you watch it back, he was trying to

554
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 3: throw a lot of elbows at range, which kind of

555
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 3: makes sense that his hand was broken. Again, I'm backwards

556
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 3: rationalizing to an extent because I really want to be

557
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 3: on night Land where here, but those things all check out.

558
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 3: The reason I'm not going decision is because of that

559
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 3: submission upside. It's not just that he has submission upside,

560
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 3: just that he has a really good front headlock series.

561
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:35,679
Speaker 3: Cherrier has done well to mix in his grappling and

562
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 3: get some takedowns. That's like kind of revitalized his career,

563
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,199
Speaker 3: I would argue, is when he started mixing in takedowns.

564
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 3: But if he shoots and good stuff, he's in that

565
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:46,199
Speaker 3: perfect position for Anacondo's dar says Nate to spin and

566
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:48,439
Speaker 3: take the back. That's all the stuff he does really well.

567
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,160
Speaker 3: So I'm actually on top of Nate's money line. I'm

568
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 3: going to take a flyer on land where by submission

569
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 3: I saw plus fifteen hundred out there. Which is it's unlikely.

570
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:59,439
Speaker 3: I'm not saying it's going to happen, but plus fifteen

571
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 3: to one odds, and how can you not root for

572
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 3: the train in Tennessee. Look at those biceps, all the

573
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:07,119
Speaker 3: greatness that we're going to get out of him on

574
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:10,679
Speaker 3: the mic. You gotta do it right. I don't know

575
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 3: any better way to put it other than we need

576
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 3: this to happen against a French dude in Tennessee.

577
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, just to my point about the decision equity as well.

578
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 1: Obviously French dude Tennessee against the little native like the

579
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:24,680
Speaker 1: crowd obviously going to be landward partisan. But also Sharier

580
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:29,360
Speaker 1: has nine split or majority decisions in fifteen career decisions,

581
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 1: and he's five and ten on the store cards. He

582
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:35,199
Speaker 1: is not a good point fighter, twelve knockouts, never been

583
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 1: knocked out, has been submitted once, has a few submissions

584
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 1: of his own, but five and ten career on the

585
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 1: store cards, and nine of those fifteen decisions were split

586
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:48,119
Speaker 1: for majority. That just steaks to low volume constantly in

587
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,159
Speaker 1: close fights. And oh, by the way, pretty easy to

588
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,879
Speaker 1: click on plus two twenty against the guy who is

589
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 1: constantly going to split decisions and never pulling away from opponents.

590
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 1: I think Land where decision only could be an interesting

591
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:03,400
Speaker 1: bed as well. I have not looked at that market,

592
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:06,439
Speaker 1: but I would imagine he's probably a value back in

593
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 1: the decision only market as well. If this one goes

594
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,359
Speaker 1: off fifteen minutes. Hard to imagine Land, we're not seeing

595
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,880
Speaker 1: his hand raised unless he gets knocked down. I would

596
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 1: imagine in separate rounds one total that we both like

597
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 1: this weekend. It is not a heavyweight bout. It is

598
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 1: a light heavyweight out because just Junior Tapa is moving

599
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 1: down from heavyweight two light heavyweight to face two go Tocos.

600
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 1: But I do like this fight to go over potentially

601
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 1: to go the distance as well. Tocas is full grappling upside.

602
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 1: I think I'm actually more concerned about him potentially finishing

603
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 1: Tafa via submission in the first seven and a half

604
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 1: minutes than I am about Taf and knocking him out.

605
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 1: But light heavyweight average fights go to decision about a

606
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 1: thirty nine percent clip, which is plus one six implied.

607
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 1: I projected this one at plus two fifty. They're giving

608
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 1: you four to one on this fight to GTD and

609
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 1: then plus money plus one oh five on the over

610
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 1: one and a half. So I'll play the over one

611
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 1: and a half here and then also sprinkle you drop

612
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 1: at plus four hundred. Billy, you like this fight to

613
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 1: go over as well, I believe, because you also like

614
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 1: Toco's the win at any point after the first round,

615
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 1: at any point after seven and a half minutes, I believe.

616
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 1: So how are you playing this one specifically? For you

617
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 1: live betting Tocos after one and that any other ways

618
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 1: you're playing it?

619
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, So what I specifically, and I did the full

620
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 3: breakdown for this one, which will be out Saturday morning,

621
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 3: is Toco's in over four and a half minutes, is

622
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 3: in an SVP that gets you to plus two to

623
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 3: fifty five. I think you could play with that up

624
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 3: or down kind of to any point and it would

625
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 3: still be a solid bet. Not only do I think

626
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 3: Toko is gonna win, I think him winning heavily correlates

627
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 3: with this fight going long. Tafa had terrible cardio at heavyweight.

628
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 3: This gets us into that discussion again. Now he's a

629
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 3: light heavyweight. Does carrying less weight help him more than

630
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 3: the weight cut hurts him? I don't know. His cardio

631
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 3: was so bad though that even if it helps him

632
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 3: a little bit. I'm still worried if this fight goes long,

633
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 3: like he was fighting a guy who took the fight

634
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 3: on two days notice in his last fight, and they

635
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 3: both were totally gassed, and Tafa just happened to land

636
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 3: one or two more in the second round. Tafa also

637
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 3: terrible grappler, like if he gets on bottom. He was

638
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 3: nearly finished in that last fight, saved by the belt

639
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 3: at the end of the first round. I don't love

640
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 3: fighters going from heavyweight to two of five just because

641
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 3: the skill level is higher and the speed is higher

642
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,959
Speaker 3: at the lighter weight classes. I think the hope if

643
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 3: your Tafa is that these guys aren't so much bigger

644
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 3: than me anymore, I'll finally be able to defend takedown.

645
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 3: Tacos is still bigger than him, He's taller and longer.

646
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 3: I bet if we wait him in on fight night,

647
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 3: Tacos would still be heavier, and he's a much better

648
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 3: grappler than most of the people Tafa fought at heavyweight.

649
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 3: So I think it's a bad fight for Tafa, and

650
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 3: I just think you know Tafa's going to be dangerous early,

651
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 3: so therefore a Tacos win correlates with a fight going long.

652
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 3: I'd be fine with Tacos on the money line, but

653
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 3: add some amount up over in there. You can do

654
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 3: over half a round, over three and a half minutes,

655
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 3: anything in there to get a little bit better. Oddside, like,

656
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be kicking myself, like you said, if there's

657
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 3: a late first round finish for Tacos, which is entirely possible.

658
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 3: But he's not in super aggressive hunting those things. He's

659
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 3: more of a control grappler, as we saw again Navahos starling.

660
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 3: I think that's probably his likeliest plan.

661
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 1: Early, got a couple of more GTD props that I like,

662
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 1: and then I'm gonna throw it to you. We're an

663
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 1: id prop before we move on to our best bets

664
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 1: where we're head to head. Mike Davis is a minus

665
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 1: nine hundred favorite against Mitch Ramirez this week, and I'm

666
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 1: a big Mike Davis fan. A really good documentary you

667
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 1: can find on YouTube when Mike Davis went to train

668
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,880
Speaker 1: at Tiger Moue Thai and Thailand, and they basically just

669
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 1: go through, like all these guys trying out. You can

670
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 1: get a free year I think three six months living there,

671
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 1: training there, et cetera, and they did like a tournament.

672
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 1: These guys through like a ringer train them and Davis

673
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 1: ended up winning one of the spots there. But it

674
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 1: was just a really cool vacum menory. You're into MMA

675
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 1: seeing what these guys go through to try to level

676
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 1: in their careers. And he hasn't fought a ton of

677
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 1: the UFC, but he's this super talented, super well rounded fighter.

678
00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 1: His last fight against Fire as the AAM was super awkward,

679
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 1: and we talked about it with her Pinny a couple

680
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 1: of weeks ago. There were other fighters to it affected.

681
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 1: I think Davis was clearly the most affected by it.

682
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 1: Those were the fights in Ambu Dhabi with the painted

683
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 1: dressing room, and Davis was in the same room as McKenny.

684
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 1: I forgot who else was in that room with them,

685
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:34,320
Speaker 1: but legitimately when the fight started, Mike Davis pulgarth like

686
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 1: right away. He looked gas out from the opening bell,

687
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 1: and the longer the fight went, the better he kind

688
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 1: of looked. He didn't look great at any point throughout

689
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 1: the fight. He looked like a severely diminished version of himself,

690
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 1: but he did seem better the longer the fight went on,

691
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 1: and it was almost like being out of that room

692
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 1: and in the full size arena was helping him to

693
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 1: breathe a little bit better. So of all the guys

694
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 1: who came out and commented on the fact that that

695
00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 1: recently painted locker room and the paint fumes had a

696
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 1: affected them before the fight, Davis's account of bit seen

697
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 1: by far the most believable, especially when you actually watch

698
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 1: how we performed in the octagon. That said, he is

699
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 1: getting into his later thirties now, I do worry about

700
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 1: a level drop, and as a resultant, he is more

701
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 1: of a point fighter than he is a finisher. He's

702
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 1: more of that attritional pace, like we'll just finish guys

703
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 1: by overwhelming them as opposed to overpowering them or just

704
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 1: having a much better smash Chaine. So I do think

705
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:30,720
Speaker 1: he could potentially overwhelm Mitch Ramirez here. But overall lightweight

706
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 1: flights go to decision about a forty six percent clip

707
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 1: about plus one seventeen and five. They're giving you plus

708
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 1: one sixty on this fight, and I do think there's

709
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 1: a chance that Davis is not a minus nine hundred payer.

710
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 1: He is a diminished version of what we've seen previously,

711
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 1: and that if that is the case. This fight will

712
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 1: be closer and more competitive, and those odds indicate and

713
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 1: for that reason, I'm not taking Davis by decision despite

714
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 1: a better number. I'll save that for round robin tickets.

715
00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 1: I'll just go ahead and save Davis, or I'll play

716
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 1: the fight GTD plus one sixty Billy. Any thoughts on

717
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 1: Mike Davis and Mitramirez and then I've got one more GDV.

718
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 3: I was looking up the Mike Davis decision line to

719
00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 3: try to hit you with a gotcha moment there, but

720
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 3: you anticipated the question and got there. No, I agree

721
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 3: with all that. It's it's easy to look at Mitramire's's

722
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 3: record and say, well, he's been knocked out in both

723
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,239
Speaker 3: of his UFC fights, But look at the guys he fought.

724
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:27,479
Speaker 3: He fought Carlos Protest and Thiago Moyss. No real shame

725
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 3: in that. Davis is not nearly the striker those guys are,

726
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:33,840
Speaker 3: and Pross was up a weight class right for Aramires.

727
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 3: So like you can see how that's not the most applicable.

728
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 3: I like that. I think you did a good job

729
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 3: of explaining why to not take the decision line. What's

730
00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 3: the over two and a half on the over two

731
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 3: and a half plus one four. Yeah, I'd take the

732
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 3: better price and goes to a decision, So I'm with you.

733
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I'm finding over there as well. Obviously,

734
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,760
Speaker 1: make sure to shop around sometimes sometimes you can find

735
00:34:57,840 --> 00:34:59,400
Speaker 1: like the same price on the over two and a

736
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:00,840
Speaker 1: half at one poin book as you can find on

737
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:03,360
Speaker 1: the GPD at another. There is enough price to Streparency

738
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 1: from one book with the next. Just make sure to

739
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 1: shop round, especially now with the sweep stakes books out

740
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:12,479
Speaker 1: there the exchanges like you get such good prices on

741
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 1: the over two and a half on some of those

742
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 1: exchanges that it's the same price as taking the gd elsewhere,

743
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 1: So always make sure to shop round for the priceless prepencies.

744
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:24,440
Speaker 1: Last fight though, GTD prop for me Bots mcclin against

745
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:28,920
Speaker 1: Melissa Martinez Women's Strawweight Division. Women's strawweights go to a

746
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 1: decision at about a sixty seven percent clip in three

747
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 1: round fights over the past three years, I make this

748
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 1: close to seventy percent as well, and they're giving you

749
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:40,360
Speaker 1: plus one to ten on this fight, GTD. It is

750
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 1: a relatively binary striker versus rattler matchup. If Martinez does

751
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 1: not get submitted. I think this one does go off

752
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 1: thirteen minutes. Say so, you're taking plus one ten on

753
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 1: Melissa Martinez not to get submitted. In my opinion, we

754
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 1: played a we played another woman's strawweight bout pretty recently,

755
00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:01,399
Speaker 1: or we put it couple of bouts a few weeks

756
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 1: ago that we're both lining to end inside the distance.

757
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 1: I think one of them was a rematch, was the

758
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 1: Mlissa Mullens fight or Melissa Dason fight. It was a

759
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 1: rematch of a previous fight that had already finished, and

760
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 1: that one ended up going all fifteen minutes as well.

761
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 1: Or it might have been the uh like save a fight.

762
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 1: I can't remember which which woman show.

763
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:20,840
Speaker 3: It was definitely one of them, Melissa's, but now I

764
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 3: can't remember which one.

765
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:24,279
Speaker 1: I can't recall it either. But yeah, like you know,

766
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 1: regardless of what the favoritism is on one side, and

767
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,799
Speaker 1: Klein is a minus eleven hundred favorite, regardless of whether

768
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 1: these fights have even finished before in previous iterations, I'm

769
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 1: just going to keep leaning into average. Two thirds of

770
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 1: these fights go to a decision. You're giving me a

771
00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 1: plus money. It's a pretty automatic play for me, Billy.

772
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 1: Anything about that fight scare you off of playing it.

773
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 1: Do you think klin is super likely to finish? And

774
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 1: then after that you've got an ITV bet on the

775
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 1: other woman's type between Lauren Murphy and Edvardo Mora. Yeah.

776
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 3: What scares me is how nasty client looked with the

777
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 3: ground and pound against Victoria du to Covid And I

778
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 3: think Doodakova is a considerably better grappler than Melissa Martinez

779
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 3: with a caveat though I think in a straight up

780
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:12,160
Speaker 3: grappling match Dudakova would destroy her. But Doodahkova likes to

781
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 3: hunt submissions and like to initiate the grappling, which kind

782
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:17,359
Speaker 3: of leaves you open to get ground and pounded more

783
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 3: where if Melissa Martinez has any sense at all, her

784
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:22,919
Speaker 3: only thought as soon as she gets on the ground

785
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 3: will be to get back up, which I think is

786
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:27,360
Speaker 3: probably a better approach against a fighter like Klein. So

787
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:29,840
Speaker 3: it's not as easy as saying one fighter is a

788
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 3: better grappler, therefore you'll do worse against them. I don't

789
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,280
Speaker 3: think it quite works that way. I think Martinez' style

790
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 3: is likelier to prevent a finish on the ground than

791
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:44,320
Speaker 3: Doodahkova's was but it's still scary because Fatom mcclin is

792
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 3: really good. Also, as we're talking about it, are Melissa

793
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:48,560
Speaker 3: Mullins and Melissa Dixon the same person? Was that a

794
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 3: name change or are these separate?

795
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 1: I think?

796
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 3: I think okay, So then it was Melissa, then it

797
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,359
Speaker 3: was Melissa Mullens. We were talking about You said that,

798
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 3: and I thought about it, and I said, yeah, no, wait,

799
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:00,800
Speaker 3: that's that's the same human being that we're discussing.

800
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 1: You know, Caitlin Chekegian will always be cho Keg into me.

801
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:11,280
Speaker 1: I can't even her new name is uh Nina Nuniaz

802
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 1: is Nina Nuniaz now like she she became Duniaz, But

803
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:15,919
Speaker 1: she was answer off for quite a bit of time.

804
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 1: Even after your name Tore.

805
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 3: I struggle with Tsha Ta Torres because we ruined the

806
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 3: letter day.

807
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 1: I know your name is kind of conn now t show,

808
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 1: but you'll you'll just always be Also when your nickname

809
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 1: is the Tornado, when your name is I knew Bernando Torres,

810
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:34,319
Speaker 1: like it's gonna be a little hard U. One other

811
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,320
Speaker 1: one other woman's fight. Laura Murphy comes back at forty

812
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,400
Speaker 1: years old. She's eleven years older than Edward and Moras.

813
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 1: She's also bigger too, interest taller and preach advantage. But

814
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,319
Speaker 1: coming off of the long layoff in her forties, do

815
00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 1: you like Maura to finish this fight inside the distance?

816
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 1: Murphy has been very durable throughout her first Was there

817
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 1: something that taped to pointed out to you that this

818
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 1: would indicata finish or is it just the h gap?

819
00:38:58,239 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 3: It's mostly just the edge gap. I mean, she's you said,

820
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 3: in her forty she'll be forty two later this month,

821
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:06,280
Speaker 3: so you know, not even on the early like, didn't

822
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 3: just turn forty or anything like that. I'm not sure

823
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 3: if she officially retired and is coming back, or if

824
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 3: she just like didn't fight for a while and then

825
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 3: popped up two and a half years later. This is

826
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 3: probably her retirement fight. I haven't seen any indication that

827
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:22,480
Speaker 3: she is definitely retiring. The tape, though, is more on

828
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:25,520
Speaker 3: the Morari side. She finished her Contender Series win, she

829
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 3: finished her only win in the UFC, and then she

830
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 3: finished her first win in the UFC, and then it's

831
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 3: gone to two relatively close decisions since then. She's fairly aggressive,

832
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:37,760
Speaker 3: both with submissions and striking. Is like a thousand times

833
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:40,360
Speaker 3: better athlete. Than Lauren Murphy at this point, maybe not

834
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:42,920
Speaker 3: at their peaks, and it's just really hard to trust,

835
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 3: you know, Lauren Murphy to fight through some adversity on

836
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:48,920
Speaker 3: the ground or really try to fight out a submission,

837
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:51,800
Speaker 3: anything like that, given that she's forty two and a

838
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 3: half and probably retiring.

839
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 1: She is definitely retiring. She's confirmed that she will.

840
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 3: She did say that, okay.

841
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 1: After the fight. Yeah, this is a official retire fight.

842
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 1: She did not retire previously, but she also hasn't fought

843
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 1: since January twenty twenty three going into her retirement fight.

844
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:09,799
Speaker 1: I do lean GTD on this fight, but given you know,

845
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 1: my projections lean GTD, given the fact that it's a

846
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 1: retirement fight, I will not be betting into that. Personally.

847
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 3: I should throw out the line on that more because

848
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 3: that gives a little bit better context here, more inside

849
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 3: the distances. Plus two seventy for a fighter who's like

850
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:27,840
Speaker 3: minus seven hundred or so money line, which is almost

851
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:30,839
Speaker 3: you know, it's hard, it's hard to not take that

852
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:35,200
Speaker 3: even without the other information on it. So I'm not

853
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 3: saying it's she's likeliest to finish this fight, but I

854
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 3: think she's a lot likelier than plus two seventy.

855
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:43,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's very fair. Again, the retirement angles,

856
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 1: sometimes you see fighters like try extra hard not to

857
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:49,399
Speaker 1: get finished in retirement fights. Sometimes you just see them

858
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:52,319
Speaker 1: like ready to walk out the door, just ready to

859
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:54,879
Speaker 1: lay down the gloves and sure, the moment you get

860
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:56,880
Speaker 1: in a crucifix, I'm just going to give up and

861
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 1: let you pound me out. So yeah, it could go

862
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 1: either way with the retire I fight angle. I don't

863
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:03,600
Speaker 1: want to lean too hard into her fighting extra because

864
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 1: she doesn't want to get finished in her last fight

865
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:08,279
Speaker 1: or the other direction. But I certainly do not love

866
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 1: or would not bet on a fighter going into the

867
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:13,319
Speaker 1: retirement fight. Let's talk about a fight that we were

868
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 1: had to head on, though we are not often had

869
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 1: to head on a fight. Felt good to put this

870
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 1: one in the best bet section because I feel like

871
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:22,840
Speaker 1: we're both particularly confident on our reads here. So that

872
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 1: is going to be Calvin Cator against Steve Garcia, my

873
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 1: favorite fight on the card. This is an absolute banger

874
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 1: because there is not a fourteen year age gap between

875
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 1: these two and it's actually like a well matched pairing.

876
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:38,800
Speaker 1: But so here's my perspective on it, and happy to

877
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:40,320
Speaker 1: let Billy take his thoughts to run away with it.

878
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 1: Curious to be softhumb thing on tape. So Garcia was

879
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 1: just a little bit too public for me this week,

880
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:47,800
Speaker 1: But more so Garcia on a five fight winning streak,

881
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,879
Speaker 1: all by knockout in the lately division to me, not

882
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:54,919
Speaker 1: necessarily repeatable. Obviously has great power. There's only so long

883
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:57,800
Speaker 1: that you can go knocking dudes out one fight after another,

884
00:41:57,840 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 1: and I do think as a result of recording fight

885
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 1: straight knockouts, he has built up a little bit of

886
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:06,319
Speaker 1: fade act. Cater, on the other hand, has lost four

887
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 1: of his past six fights. He's never been knocked down

888
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:11,799
Speaker 1: in his career, He's never been finished by strikes. He's

889
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 1: only lost via finish. Was a TKO loss injury TKO.

890
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,880
Speaker 1: I thought he won the Josh Emmitt fight. Obviously at

891
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:23,760
Speaker 1: the injury lost. Allen came back not fully recovered against

892
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 1: al Jamaine Sterling got taken down a bunch in that fight.

893
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,880
Speaker 1: That fight has no bearing on this one. Then he

894
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:33,840
Speaker 1: fought use of Salah Zalal is a very good counterpuncher,

895
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 1: very athletic. Cater denied all the takedowns in that fight,

896
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:39,800
Speaker 1: but also had to chase the Laal around the cage.

897
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 1: For the entirety of that matchup, Steve Garcia is gonna

898
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:45,759
Speaker 1: run right at Calvin Cator. They're going to box in

899
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 1: the pocket, They're going to swing it out, and by

900
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 1: the nature of the stylistic matchup, the line I think

901
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 1: is correct in that this should be close to a

902
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:56,600
Speaker 1: pick up. It's very tough to make either guy a

903
00:42:56,600 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 1: big favorite here because it should be a boxing match.

904
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 1: That said, I prefer Cater striking. I think he's the

905
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 1: more diverse striker. I think he's the better pocket boxer.

906
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:10,359
Speaker 1: Garcia is a little bit bigger, carries a little bit

907
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:13,400
Speaker 1: more power, but he is not as durable as Calvin

908
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:16,120
Speaker 1: Cator and that's where I prefer Cater in this fight.

909
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:20,200
Speaker 1: That's ultimately why I land on Cater. Garcia has been dropped.

910
00:43:20,280 --> 00:43:22,799
Speaker 1: He's been dropped twice. He got dropped at twice and

911
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:27,480
Speaker 1: ko by Mahashat, got dropped by Shilin Nurmbeki, and also

912
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:30,359
Speaker 1: got grappled in previous fights as well. And I think

913
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 1: there's a chance that Cater could mix it a takedown

914
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 1: to here and get a few minutes a top time.

915
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 1: That's what he did in order to fee gigot Chikad's

916
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:39,719
Speaker 1: got on top of him the first round, elbowed him

917
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 1: a bunch control them for three minutes. We've seen mel

918
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:45,280
Speaker 1: Costa control Garcia for four and a half minutes, Shalen

919
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 1: ConTroll them for three and a half minutes. My point

920
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 1: here is mostly Cater has been defending takedowns, had to

921
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 1: anti grapple in his past couple of fights. Now he's

922
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 1: going to be getting a brawl in the pocket against

923
00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 1: another guy who wants the brawl with him. And if

924
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 1: anybody has picked upside in this matchup, for me, it's

925
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 1: Kaled Cater. I'm curious if you saw something else in

926
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:07,239
Speaker 1: the grappling that would point the other direction. But yeah,

927
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:10,439
Speaker 1: I think Caters undervalued. I make him about I think

928
00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 1: minus one ten. I make a minus one twenty. I

929
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 1: bet him to minus one ten. But I also like

930
00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:19,000
Speaker 1: the GTD as well. I make the GTD about minus

931
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 1: one fourteen. They're giving you as high as plus one

932
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:24,320
Speaker 1: ninety on this fight to go to a decision. I

933
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 1: think it's close and competitive. I think it goes all

934
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 1: fifteen minutes. I prefer Cater, and I like to mix

935
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:33,319
Speaker 1: Cater with the GTD prop in a combined structured bet.

936
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 1: You're going the other direction with Garcia and Garcia by kobilly.

937
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:41,359
Speaker 1: Garcia KOs plus two ten, Garcia moneyline is minus one

938
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:44,759
Speaker 1: twenty five. Give me your price targets on those bets,

939
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 1: and then also, I'm curious, if this does go fifteen minutes,

940
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 1: who you think is likely to win a decision.

941
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:52,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'll start with their last question because I

942
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:54,839
Speaker 3: one hundred percent agree with you that if it does

943
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:57,399
Speaker 3: go fifteen minutes, I think Calvin Cater is much likely

944
00:44:57,520 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 3: to win. I don't disagree with either of your bets.

945
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:02,759
Speaker 3: I would just put him together. I would just bet

946
00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 3: Cater by decision if I was on that side of things. Yes,

947
00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 3: Garcia has struggled with durability a little bit, but he's

948
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:10,440
Speaker 3: not like one of those guys who we view is

949
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:12,600
Speaker 3: super chinny. You know, he's fought some tough guys who've

950
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:15,320
Speaker 3: done that to him. I don't think that's the likeliest outcome.

951
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:18,840
Speaker 3: And Cater is more of a volume finisher, auditional finisher,

952
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:20,839
Speaker 3: however we want to put it. Who's fought a lot

953
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 3: of five minute fights, and I don't know that he'll

954
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:25,839
Speaker 3: have the pace in a three round fight. I'm sorry,

955
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:27,480
Speaker 3: five round fight. I don't know if he'll have the

956
00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 3: pace in a three round fight to like build up

957
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:32,200
Speaker 3: that volume the same way like he should. He should

958
00:45:32,200 --> 00:45:34,719
Speaker 3: have adjusted by now, but that's a tricky thing to

959
00:45:34,719 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 3: do once guys get used to the twenty five minute fights.

960
00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:40,839
Speaker 3: The biggest thing for me is that you know your

961
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:44,360
Speaker 3: analysis is banking on Cater's durability, which has been excellent

962
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:46,520
Speaker 3: throughout his career, never even been dropped in the UFC

963
00:45:46,840 --> 00:45:49,480
Speaker 3: outside of the injury. He did get finished one time.

964
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:51,400
Speaker 3: Other than that, though he got submitted way back in

965
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:53,719
Speaker 3: two thousand and eight when he was like probably a

966
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 3: high school senior, So I'm not putting too much faith

967
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:59,880
Speaker 3: in that either. But he's also taken so much damage.

968
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:03,720
Speaker 3: He absorbs more than two strike. He absorbs two strikes

969
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:07,960
Speaker 3: more than he lands per minute, despite having solid percentage

970
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:10,960
Speaker 3: wise defense, because he just stands right there in the pocket,

971
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:13,960
Speaker 3: wants to trade with you, and he's given up fight

972
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 3: and reach against Garcia, so he's not going to be

973
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 3: able to find that point where he can out touch,

974
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:20,479
Speaker 3: where he can touch you, but you can't touch him.

975
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 3: And that's where Calvin Cator does his best work. We

976
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 3: saw Holloway another longer guy set the record for most

977
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:30,320
Speaker 3: significant strikes in a UFC fight against Calvin Cator. Great

978
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:32,360
Speaker 3: that he survived that, but you can only survive so

979
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:35,080
Speaker 3: many of those before those start to add up. The

980
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 3: other technical or stylistic thing I saw is Cater doesn't

981
00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:40,960
Speaker 3: fight great moving backwards, and when he has to fight

982
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:43,279
Speaker 3: taller people, kind of by definition, he has to back

983
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:45,719
Speaker 3: up a little bit more. I think if Garcia does

984
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:48,240
Speaker 3: his normal thing and kind of blitzes early, that puts

985
00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:50,920
Speaker 3: Cater on the back foot and puts Garcia in a

986
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:53,759
Speaker 3: good spot. If that happens and then line blows up

987
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 3: on Cater, I do want to lie that on him, though,

988
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:58,799
Speaker 3: I think Garcia pretty much needs to finish here. My

989
00:46:58,880 --> 00:47:00,400
Speaker 3: original read was I'm going to come in with the

990
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 3: Steve Garcia pre fight bet and then try to live

991
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 3: back Cater. Then I saw a certain book has a

992
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:09,680
Speaker 3: way off market line on Garcia knockout at plus two ten.

993
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 3: Everybody else is plus one sixty five. I'm not sure

994
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:15,719
Speaker 3: if we can name specific books on this particular podcast,

995
00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:18,360
Speaker 3: but jump in the Action Network discord where I discussed

996
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:21,880
Speaker 3: that earlier. Here, when you're getting a fifty cents different

997
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 3: from every other book, it's kind of worth taking it.

998
00:47:24,239 --> 00:47:26,719
Speaker 3: So I have zero point six units or to win

999
00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:29,840
Speaker 3: half a unit on Steve Garcia money line, zero point

1000
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:32,799
Speaker 3: four units on knockout, and if I can get so

1001
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:34,399
Speaker 3: giving me a total of one. If I can get

1002
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:36,480
Speaker 3: Cater north of plus two hundred and put another half

1003
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 3: unit on it, That's what I'm going to try to

1004
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:40,319
Speaker 3: do at any point because to all of your points,

1005
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 3: if he does survive all that, I think he's the

1006
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 3: clear A side here. I'm just not sure how many

1007
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:48,319
Speaker 3: more surviving storms he has in him at almost thirty

1008
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:52,160
Speaker 3: eight years old, with some significant injuries, so much damage taken.

1009
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:54,919
Speaker 3: And you mentioned this not being a bit big age gap.

1010
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:56,719
Speaker 3: It kind of feels like it is though it's only

1011
00:47:56,760 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 3: four years. But if you would have told me these

1012
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 3: guys are ten years apart, I would have believed it.

1013
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fair. I think it's you know, how how

1014
00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:06,040
Speaker 1: much we've seen Cater in the UFC relative to CBARC.

1015
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:08,959
Speaker 1: I think he's double the number of fights. The only

1016
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 1: point I want to push back on, and this this

1017
00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:14,360
Speaker 1: applies to all Calvin Cator fights, is the statistical data

1018
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:17,759
Speaker 1: is so skewed for Cater based off of solely the

1019
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:21,359
Speaker 1: Max Holloway fights. He got outlanded by three hundred and

1020
00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:24,160
Speaker 1: twenty five strikes in that fight that it just permanently

1021
00:48:24,200 --> 00:48:29,800
Speaker 1: skews all of Calvin Cator's significant strike absorbed and landed data.

1022
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:34,320
Speaker 1: Right after the Hollyway fight, he outlanded Giga one fifty

1023
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:37,240
Speaker 1: seven one twenty nine at distance and then outlanded Josh

1024
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 1: amm At one thirty one one oh seven at distance,

1025
00:48:40,200 --> 00:48:44,239
Speaker 1: got outlanded by Zawall seventy four to thirty five, but

1026
00:48:44,280 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 1: as I said, he was chasing him around for much

1027
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 1: of that fight. I do have some concerns, you know,

1028
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 1: about Cater's overall athleticism explosiveness Following the injury against Alan,

1029
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:55,880
Speaker 1: It took him a while to get going against Sterling.

1030
00:48:55,960 --> 00:48:59,400
Speaker 1: That fight was only I mean that fight was almost

1031
00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:01,760
Speaker 1: two years a year and a half removed from the injury,

1032
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:03,920
Speaker 1: so he should have been back near one hundred percent

1033
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:07,799
Speaker 1: by that point. And then took the next fight I

1034
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:11,560
Speaker 1: guess like ten months later against the Wall and still

1035
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 1: look okay, didn't look as explosive as he did previously.

1036
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:16,880
Speaker 1: So I do think there is, you know, a potential

1037
00:49:16,920 --> 00:49:19,480
Speaker 1: loss of athleticism on the Cater side. That is maybe

1038
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:22,920
Speaker 1: being undervalued to here. But you know, when you look

1039
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:25,400
Speaker 1: at a guy on a four fight losing streak, lost

1040
00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 1: five of six against the guy who's won five straight

1041
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:31,520
Speaker 1: by KO and the money line is basically a pick them,

1042
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:34,239
Speaker 1: I think something seems off to me relative to how

1043
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:37,320
Speaker 1: this would normally be priced. I feel like normally, normally

1044
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:39,919
Speaker 1: Cater would be creeping closer to two to one based

1045
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 1: off of like the recent results, and I do think

1046
00:49:42,719 --> 00:49:45,759
Speaker 1: it is appropriately lined. I actually would flip it, though,

1047
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:48,759
Speaker 1: and make Cater this slight favorite. Only fight we didn't

1048
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:52,520
Speaker 1: get to on this card is Chris Curtis cutting back

1049
00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:54,640
Speaker 1: down in weight, going back down from one to eighty

1050
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:57,840
Speaker 1: five to one seventy, going back to welterweight here for

1051
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:03,440
Speaker 1: the first time, and I believe five years should sap

1052
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:07,560
Speaker 1: his durability just a little bit could potentially hurt his cardio.

1053
00:50:07,640 --> 00:50:10,719
Speaker 1: But I do think Max Griffin has largely looked washed

1054
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:13,400
Speaker 1: in his recent fights. There's no bet for me on

1055
00:50:13,520 --> 00:50:16,240
Speaker 1: Curtis against Max Griffin. Just curious of you at anything

1056
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:17,480
Speaker 1: before we get out of here.

1057
00:50:18,520 --> 00:50:21,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm leaning towards Griffin at the price because he's

1058
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 3: you know, two to one underdog and I worry about

1059
00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:26,000
Speaker 3: older guy. Curtis dealt with a lot of injuries. He

1060
00:50:26,040 --> 00:50:28,399
Speaker 3: had a torn hamstring, he had some kind of knee thing,

1061
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:30,919
Speaker 3: a hand thing like seems like you can't get right.

1062
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:33,800
Speaker 3: He's thirty eight and has head forty three professional fights.

1063
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:36,279
Speaker 3: So while Griffin looks washed, you know, might not be

1064
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:38,959
Speaker 3: the only one. With all that said, I am honor

1065
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:41,239
Speaker 3: bound to not bet against the Action man while working

1066
00:50:41,239 --> 00:50:43,840
Speaker 3: at the Action Network, So no Max Griffin bet for me.

1067
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 3: But if I were going to bet and we're not

1068
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:50,200
Speaker 3: feeling responsible for keeping a bit alive, that would be

1069
00:50:50,239 --> 00:50:52,520
Speaker 3: my bet. But I'm going with a bit and just

1070
00:50:52,560 --> 00:50:54,359
Speaker 3: abstaining from this one last thing.

1071
00:50:54,360 --> 00:50:55,759
Speaker 1: When I get to Billy, I saw you tweet out

1072
00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:57,200
Speaker 1: earlier this week. This is a much better card for

1073
00:50:57,360 --> 00:51:00,000
Speaker 1: DFS that it is for betting with all these heavy favors.

1074
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:04,240
Speaker 1: Is there any particular fighter or fight from a DFS

1075
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:05,919
Speaker 1: perspective that you're excited about this week?

1076
00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 3: Yeah? Absolutely, in love with Fata mcclein. She's ninety nine hundred,

1077
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:13,839
Speaker 3: which if anyone follows DFS that's absurd. But she's gonna

1078
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:17,720
Speaker 3: be super low owned and she might do the Morab

1079
00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:19,960
Speaker 3: thing where she threads the needle of as to your

1080
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:21,920
Speaker 3: point of this fight going to a decision where she

1081
00:51:22,040 --> 00:51:24,399
Speaker 3: just racks up a ton of takedowns because Martinez keeps

1082
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:27,360
Speaker 3: getting back up and take downs score super well for DFS.

1083
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:29,880
Speaker 3: I think that's a huge aye is just relative to

1084
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:32,640
Speaker 3: her ownership production, but it's also just, you know, a

1085
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:35,719
Speaker 3: good challenge roster building wise, because in a perfect world,

1086
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:38,279
Speaker 3: you'd play all the minus one thousand favorites, but you

1087
00:51:38,320 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 3: obviously can't do that, so you have to make some

1088
00:51:40,040 --> 00:51:42,799
Speaker 3: tough decisions. Bomb theme, I think is a really good

1089
00:51:42,840 --> 00:51:44,520
Speaker 3: spot as well. He's a little bit cheaper than the

1090
00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:48,520
Speaker 3: heavy favorites, but given the takedown upside and the finishing upside,

1091
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:50,799
Speaker 3: I think he's a little bit more likely to land

1092
00:51:50,800 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 3: in the optimal lineup than somebody like Mike Davis. So honestly,

1093
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:57,560
Speaker 3: like your picks in our sheet have actually lined up

1094
00:51:57,560 --> 00:51:59,239
Speaker 3: perfectly with how I'm seeing it for DFS. So if

1095
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:02,520
Speaker 3: you're playing DFS, you can back extrapolate from what Zerlo

1096
00:52:02,600 --> 00:52:04,840
Speaker 3: said and I think come up with some pretty solid lineups.

1097
00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:05,560
Speaker 3: Love that.

1098
00:52:05,680 --> 00:52:07,879
Speaker 1: Hopefully that means I'm going to win some money plank

1099
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:10,319
Speaker 1: some DFS this week. I follow my own advice that'll

1100
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:12,439
Speaker 1: do it for a UFC betting preview. You can find

1101
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:15,480
Speaker 1: more UFC betting content for both Billy and myself on

1102
00:52:15,520 --> 00:52:17,879
Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com and in the Action Network app. If

1103
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:19,520
Speaker 1: you'd like to instantly tell some of the bets that

1104
00:52:19,600 --> 00:52:21,840
Speaker 1: we discussed on today's show, make sure to look for

1105
00:52:21,840 --> 00:52:24,560
Speaker 1: the quick blanks both in the podcast and the video description,

1106
00:52:24,719 --> 00:52:28,240
Speaker 1: or visit Actionnework dot com slash bet now. Don't forget

1107
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 1: to download that free award winning Action NETWORKAP and sign

1108
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:33,360
Speaker 1: up for Action Pro for immediate access to expert picks

1109
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:35,880
Speaker 1: at analysis. Best of luck with all your bets this weekend,

1110
00:52:35,880 --> 00:52:37,920
Speaker 1: and enjoy the violence. Thank you for listening, See you

1111
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:49,239
Speaker 1: here next week. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1112
00:52:49,640 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1113
00:52:52,760 --> 00:52:55,359
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1114
00:52:55,480 --> 00:52:56,280
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler