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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Saturday

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Speaker 1: morning edition of the Deal Juice Podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Parrelt. You guys can follow me on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Sports Talk Matt. You guys can follow Betting Pros on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at Betting Pros. Always being brought to by bet

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Speaker 1: MGM and they offer ten dollars to win one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty dollars on any event. Use that code Juice

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Speaker 1: one fifty at BETMGMMGM dot com to get in. Okay,

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Speaker 1: welcome to Championship Saturday. Before we get to the picks

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Speaker 1: and the Place, I have a big request, so you

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Speaker 1: guys are always great when I ask for some rallying.

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Speaker 1: We're trying to get the Betting Pros YouTube subscription up. Okay,

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Speaker 1: We're giving away a sa Quon Barkley autographed helmet just

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Speaker 1: for subscribing to the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Now. To

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Speaker 1: do this, go to Bettingpros dot com slash helmet Bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot com slash helmet to enter into this contest. It's

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Speaker 1: an autographed Saquon barkleyd helmet simply for signing up and

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Speaker 1: subscribing to the Betting Pros YouTube channel. So we're trying

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Speaker 1: to drive this thing. I would love to see us

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Speaker 1: get to like ten thousand by the end of the

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Speaker 1: football season. So if you can do that personal request,

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Speaker 1: I'm asking you, the Daily Juice crew to hook us

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Speaker 1: up and help us drive that. So, if you have

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Speaker 1: not subscribed a right to the YouTube channel, please please

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Speaker 1: please do so. Okay, today I am going to be

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Speaker 1: putting a little bit of a test on myself. Our

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Speaker 1: college football record. Going into championship Saturday. After last night,

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Speaker 1: we are sixty and forty Okay, that is sixty percent

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Speaker 1: up over twelve units. Okay. This has been the most

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Speaker 1: profitable sport for me so far here in the twenty

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Speaker 1: of the year, by far. Of two of twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 1: by far the most profitable college football NBA hasn't is okay.

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Speaker 1: Everything else has been pretty crap, to be quite honest.

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Speaker 1: It's I've been a good year. NFL has been bad

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Speaker 1: this year. I've been bad. I'm sixty and seventy one

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Speaker 1: in the NFL just forty five percent, okay, NBA were

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Speaker 1: over fifty percent, fifty one percent, but fifty two percent

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Speaker 1: on NFL props, you know, Okay, not great, but Okay,

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Speaker 1: everything else has kind of just been emh. NBA props

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Speaker 1: were down one unit nineteen eighty five, fifty one percent there,

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Speaker 1: so not been. It hasn't been a good year, and

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Speaker 1: we track all this stuff, but college football has been

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Speaker 1: sort of my my thing. Okay, So I'm gonna go

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Speaker 1: out here in a blaze of glory. I may go

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Speaker 1: down badly, it may get ugly here today, but I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna put five units in play. I'm gonna make five bets.

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Speaker 1: They may all be awful bets, but I'm gonna make them,

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Speaker 1: and I'm gonna go kind of quickly here because I

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Speaker 1: don't want this podcast to be extremely long. So yesterday,

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Speaker 1: it looks like it's gonna be a winning day. The

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Speaker 1: Warrior teas taking the Warriors down to minus two in

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Speaker 1: the under two twenty. I think we're gonna get there

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Speaker 1: at the time of taping. Right now, we've got a

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Speaker 1: eighty nine to seventy four advantage for the Warriors. They're

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Speaker 1: probably gonna cover their seven point numbers, so the tees

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Speaker 1: might not be necessary. But the total was two fifteen.

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Speaker 1: I wasn't totally comfortable, So it looks like that's gonna

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Speaker 1: come in here a minus won tens when I got

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Speaker 1: that at a five point teaser, so we'll be profitable.

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Speaker 1: Two in one night, Utah dead wrong, blew out Oregon,

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Speaker 1: but the underhit. So we went one in one in

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Speaker 1: the PAC twelve Championship game and oh and one to

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Speaker 1: zero in the NBA. So let's go back to back

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Speaker 1: winning days. A little bit of a mini run here

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Speaker 1: after the horrifics art to the week. You know, not bad, okay,

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Speaker 1: slowly but surely. It's basically like up a unit after

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Speaker 1: losing four units. So it's still a down week. But

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Speaker 1: let's go into Saturday here now, reminder that we're having

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Speaker 1: the Discord Chat coming up at eight o'clock in the

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Speaker 1: morning Pacific eleven am Eastern tomorrow morning. We'll do that.

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Speaker 1: It might be it might be the last one of

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Speaker 1: these for a bit, just FYI. I'll probably take a

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Speaker 1: break a little bit, give myself some chances to sleep

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Speaker 1: a little bit and get ready for the holidays and whatnot.

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Speaker 1: Will probably be our last Discord Chat for a little bit.

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Speaker 1: We'll probably pick it back up again in January. But

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Speaker 1: so we'll do it on Championship Saturday for US here

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Speaker 1: at eleven am on the Discord channel with me, and

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Speaker 1: let's try I think we've missed four in a row,

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Speaker 1: so let's try to get one here, guys. Let's get

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Speaker 1: a w and hopefully my cold streak does not wear

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Speaker 1: off on you guys. So that will come up today

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Speaker 1: at eleven o'clock eastern eight am Pacific time from for

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Speaker 1: the Discord channel. Okay, so let's get into Championship Saturday,

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Speaker 1: and let's go kind of you know, in order as

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Speaker 1: to how these games are going to be played a right,

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Speaker 1: Baylor versus Oklahoma State. This game is fascinating to me.

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma State right now is laying six points. You can

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Speaker 1: shop around and one of the fun things and this

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Speaker 1: is actually something you guys should be doing anyway. If

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Speaker 1: you go to bettingpros dot com, go under NCAA. Okay,

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Speaker 1: go under game odds, and when you look under game odds,

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Speaker 1: you can go and see across the board. You can

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Speaker 1: see all the different numbers as to where they are.

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Speaker 1: So by the time this game goes off, now you

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Speaker 1: guys might wind up getting six and a half. Okay,

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Speaker 1: it's it's six right now. There's a lot of public

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Speaker 1: money coming in here on the cover machine Oklahoma State.

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Speaker 1: All right, Oklahoma State against the spread this year, they

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Speaker 1: were tremendous nine to two in one, but Baylor was

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Speaker 1: eight and four. Okay, Baylor, Now, they didn't cover in

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Speaker 1: their last game, they lost by They won by three

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Speaker 1: points against Texas Tech. But before that they had covered

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Speaker 1: five out of six games. Now, they didn't cover against

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Speaker 1: TCU because they lost that game on the road, which

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Speaker 1: is a real bad loss for them, burn their chances

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Speaker 1: of making the Big Twelve championship game. But against the

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Speaker 1: conference six and three Oakie State eight zho to one

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Speaker 1: against the conference this year in the Big Twelfth, they've

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Speaker 1: been phenomenal. Last game against Oklahoma four point favorites, it

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Speaker 1: closed at four. They covered, They won by four. So

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Speaker 1: it was a push depending on what number you got there,

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Speaker 1: though you may have been able to get there. Three

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Speaker 1: three and a half, four four and a half was

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Speaker 1: all kind of in that area. At home, Baylor six

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Speaker 1: and one against spread, two and three against the number

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Speaker 1: five and zero on the road for Okie State four

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Speaker 1: to two and one. Here. But here's the thing. Everybody

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Speaker 1: is wondering about the backup quarterback situation for Baylor and

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Speaker 1: whether or not they're going to have their starting quarterback

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Speaker 1: in this game. Now, it's definitely a question as to

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Speaker 1: whether or not they're going to have him. But the

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Speaker 1: backup played pretty well for Baylor this year. I don't

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Speaker 1: think it makes a whole lot of difference as to

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Speaker 1: which quarterback plays here for Baylor. Clearly you want your starter,

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Speaker 1: but if you don't get your starter, not not horrible. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Baylor is gonna run the football. Abram Smith Big twelve

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Speaker 1: second leading rusher, got to run the football, Gotta pound

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Speaker 1: the rock here. Okay, this is gonna be really interesting.

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Speaker 1: Baylor lost to Oklahoma State twenty four to fourteen back

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Speaker 1: on October, the second second Big Twelve title game in

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Speaker 1: three years for Baylor. Baylor could go to the Sugar

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Speaker 1: Bowl with a win, but it's a tight loss. Maybe

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Speaker 1: they wind up still getting there to the Sugar Bowl

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Speaker 1: as well. Oklahoma State's got just some tremendous running backs,

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Speaker 1: some real nice offense. You gotta worry about the quarterback

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Speaker 1: who can run a lot. I mean, the Sooners are

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Speaker 1: a team that it's tough to stop anybody, right, I

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Speaker 1: mean it's tough to just the big play, big player

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Speaker 1: to big play in that game. Thirty seven thirty three

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Speaker 1: was the final in that game. I don't think we're

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Speaker 1: gonna have that type of situation. Defensively, Oklahoma State has

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Speaker 1: been very, very good across. Oklahoma State has been very

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Speaker 1: good in every game exceptingas Oklahoma. I mean, they just

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Speaker 1: gave up so many rushing cards. But maybe that was

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Speaker 1: a sign that things were starting to crack a little

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Speaker 1: bit for the Sooners. Maybe that was a sign that

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Speaker 1: things were starting to kind of, you know, sway a

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Speaker 1: little bit in the other direction for them coming back

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Speaker 1: down a little bit here. I I like Baylor. They're

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Speaker 1: ten and two, they're seven and two in conference, they're

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Speaker 1: catching six points. I'm gonna ride the Baylor Bears here.

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Speaker 1: I like Oklahoma State a lot. I mean, maybe this

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Speaker 1: is just because I haven't been seeing the board all

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Speaker 1: that clearly is maybe I'm dead wrong here, but it

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Speaker 1: does feel like we're gonna have a lot of money

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Speaker 1: coming in on Oklahoma State. The public's gonna be all

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Speaker 1: over the Cowboys, and I just want to fade that.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna look to take points a lot today. I

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Speaker 1: just think that that's the smarter move to take points

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Speaker 1: when you can in a championship game. That's what I

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Speaker 1: did with Oregon last night. It was dead wrong. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so maybe you go again and say, Matt, you're dead wrong.

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Speaker 1: Here I'm taking Oklahoma State. You got seventy seven percent

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Speaker 1: of the handle and seventy two percent of the bets

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Speaker 1: at at DraftKings. At the time of taping here coming

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Speaker 1: in Oklahoma State line has been ticking up six, six

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Speaker 1: and a half. You know, maybe you get the best number.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait on this, but I'm gonna take Baylor

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Speaker 1: at the best point. I want six minimum six and

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Speaker 1: a half seven, but I'm gonna be on Baylor here

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Speaker 1: for one unit. I'm gonna take Baylor to keep this

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Speaker 1: game close. Oklahoma State may win the game, but I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna take Baylor to keep it close. Here, Baylor plus

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Speaker 1: the points. Wait, get the best number of points you

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Speaker 1: can get, Baylor plus the points for one unit. That

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Speaker 1: game is a noon kick eastern nine am Pacific time.

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Speaker 1: Start bright and bleeping early. All right. Then the second

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Speaker 1: game is Georgia and Alabama. I do not know what

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Speaker 1: to do with this game, except I am waiting and

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Speaker 1: I'm betting against the public. Okay, that's bottom line. That's

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Speaker 1: what I'm doing here in this game. It is seventy

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Speaker 1: nine percent of the handle, seventy two percent of the bets.

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Speaker 1: I believe that the pros are waiting to see how

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Speaker 1: much they can get on Alabama. All right, seven, seven

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Speaker 1: and a half. Who knows where they're going to go.

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Speaker 1: They we may not get back to seven, okay, so

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Speaker 1: or get two seven. So this is going to be

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Speaker 1: a bet I'm gonna make. I'm gonna give it to

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Speaker 1: you in the Discord channel right before kickoff. All right,

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Speaker 1: right now, I would take Bama plus six and a half. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I want seven, I want more than seven, But right

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Speaker 1: now I would lean towards Alabama. And here's the deal. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Alabama gets to play this card that they are the underdog.

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Speaker 1: I understand that Georgia is going to just be unbelievable.

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Speaker 1: I am extremely concerned about the offensive line for Alabama.

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Speaker 1: And look, if this number stays under seven, or it

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Speaker 1: goes down, it goes to six, I very well might

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Speaker 1: be on Georgia. Okay, I can I can be talked

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Speaker 1: into Georgia. I can be talked into Alabama. Right now.

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Speaker 1: My lean is Alabama plus seven. If it's under that,

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Speaker 1: my lean is probably going to go with Georgia. Georgia's

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Speaker 1: defensive line is going to have potentially the biggest impact

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Speaker 1: in this game. Alabama has not been able to run

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Speaker 1: the ball like they normally are able to run the ball.

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Speaker 1: If you get to Bryce Young like Auburn did last week,

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Speaker 1: and you make them uncomfortable, you can beat them. Okay,

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Speaker 1: you can knock them around and you can beat him.

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Speaker 1: And Georgia's defense is so damn good. Bama's defense has

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Speaker 1: not been as good as I would expect it this year.

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Speaker 1: I thought they're gonna be much better at that opening

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Speaker 1: game against Miami, I thought, this Bama defense is gonna

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Speaker 1: eat this year. Didn't happen. Okay, give up big plays.

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Speaker 1: Secondary pass rush has been okay. They lost so much

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Speaker 1: talent off that defense last year. Just hasn't really been there.

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Speaker 1: Their running game has been and no one runs on

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Speaker 1: Georgia like you just don't. Bama's got receivers, as we know.

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Speaker 1: And then it comes to the point where Alabama's a

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Speaker 1: dog like Ala bleeping' Bama is an underdog like that

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Speaker 1: is the public side with Georgia, but doesn't mean it's

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Speaker 1: the wrong side with Georgia. So this is a to

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Speaker 1: be determined game. For me, mentioned five units in play,

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Speaker 1: but this game I don't know yet. Okay, Baylor plus

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Speaker 1: six or more for sure? One unit Alabama six seven

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Speaker 1: and a half, six to seven and a half somewhere

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Speaker 1: in that range. I don't know. If you can find

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Speaker 1: a six out there and it's Georgia, I very well

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Speaker 1: might jump on Georgia. Look aheadline was three Bama played

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Speaker 1: against against Auburn looked poor in that with their offensive

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Speaker 1: line not performing well. Line goes to six and a half.

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Speaker 1: That's one reason why I think the pros are waiting.

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Speaker 1: Let's see how high the number can go. Bama could

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Speaker 1: lose the game, but Nick Saban against an assistant coach,

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Speaker 1: gets blown out by two scores. Really whoo tough to see,

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Speaker 1: surprising to see, and I mean, when's this might be history?

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Speaker 1: You can bet on Alabama as a dog? Oh boy? Okay,

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Speaker 1: how about that Bama first half as a dog? Wow? Okay?

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Speaker 1: So yeah, wait and see, hold on, we're going to

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Speaker 1: jump in here on this coming up, will be involved

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Speaker 1: coming up right for kickoff, same time, four o'clock Pacific time,

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Speaker 1: seven pm Eastern time. We've got Cincinnati taking on Houston

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Speaker 1: this game, man alive. I would love to see Houston

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Speaker 1: win this game. I absolutely love it. I don't see

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Speaker 1: it personally. So let's talk about the total, because I

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Speaker 1: don't know. Since he wins this game, do they cover

246
00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:29,760
Speaker 1: ten and a half? Very possible. They could totally shut

247
00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:32,800
Speaker 1: down Houston here, Really possible. Houston seven and five to

248
00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:35,679
Speaker 1: the over this year away from home, five and two

249
00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:38,839
Speaker 1: to the over, two and three at home since the

250
00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:41,640
Speaker 1: last two games have gone under five and seven to

251
00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:44,280
Speaker 1: the over this year on the road, two and four

252
00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:47,440
Speaker 1: to the over, four and six to the over over

253
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Speaker 1: their last ten, but over the last five only one

254
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Speaker 1: time has the game gone over for Cincinnati, including a

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Speaker 1: run here actually where it's five of the last six

256
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Speaker 1: games has gone under Cincinnati. The total list game is

257
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Speaker 1: fifty three. When you look at DraftKings, this is a

258
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Speaker 1: pros versus Joe's split. All right, we've got fifty nine

259
00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:13,680
Speaker 1: percent of the handle on the under and eighty five

260
00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:18,720
Speaker 1: percent of the bets on the over. Fifty three. I'm

261
00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:21,760
Speaker 1: going under. I don't think Houston scores all that much.

262
00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:24,080
Speaker 1: I think Cincinnati is going to flex their muscles here.

263
00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:26,760
Speaker 1: I think Houston's defense could keep them in the game,

264
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Speaker 1: could keep it below ten points. I mean there's a

265
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Speaker 1: backdoor cover possibility as well for Houston. You know, maybe

266
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Speaker 1: it's like a thirty to twenty type of win for

267
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Speaker 1: Cincinnati and that ten and a half point number burns you.

268
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Speaker 1: But I think under fifty three, I think there's a

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Speaker 1: real decent shot here. This is a lower scoring game,

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00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:46,480
Speaker 1: a slower starting game than people are anticipating. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: ride with the pros here and fade the public. Eighty

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00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:51,800
Speaker 1: five percent of the bets are on the over, fifty

273
00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:54,680
Speaker 1: nine percent at DraftKings on the handle on the under.

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Speaker 1: We're going one unit under Houston Cincinnati for under fifty three,

275
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Speaker 1: and then one more play to get into four championships Saturday.

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Speaker 1: That I will give you a pick on it. It's

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Speaker 1: gonna be the night game. Oh sorry, no two more

278
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Speaker 1: to give you. Sorry, there's gonna be let's see one, two, three,

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Speaker 1: four five. There we go. Uh. Fourth game, Pittsburgh and

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Speaker 1: wake Forest. All right, so we got the battle of

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Speaker 1: the quarterbacks here, right. We got wake Forest and their

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00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:27,280
Speaker 1: quarterback and their high flying offense. Pittsburgh and their offense

283
00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:29,880
Speaker 1: also equally high scoring. I know a bunch of people

284
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Speaker 1: who are saying just bet the over seventy one and

285
00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:34,360
Speaker 1: a half and just be leaving it alone. Eh, not

286
00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,480
Speaker 1: so sure on that I'm going. I mean, personally, I

287
00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:39,920
Speaker 1: think these are games that might be slowing down here

288
00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:44,320
Speaker 1: a little bit. But again, this is a monster handle

289
00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:48,640
Speaker 1: all everyone's on pit Okay, numbers at three three and

290
00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:52,120
Speaker 1: a half, eighty two percent on the handle all on Pittsburgh.

291
00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:55,120
Speaker 1: You got sixty six per the bets on Pittsburgh, thirty

292
00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:57,560
Speaker 1: four percent coming in here on Wake you get plus

293
00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:00,360
Speaker 1: three plus three and a half here in charp for

294
00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:03,960
Speaker 1: this one. And look, I gotta be frank well when

295
00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:06,400
Speaker 1: it comes to against the spread, Pittsburgh's nine to three,

296
00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:09,480
Speaker 1: they're awesome six six and two against the spread. Wake

297
00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:13,600
Speaker 1: four six and six here, okay, and they've been okay late.

298
00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:16,200
Speaker 1: Two of the last three they covered. They lost to

299
00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:18,760
Speaker 1: Clemson by twenty one points on the road. They beat

300
00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:22,480
Speaker 1: Boston College though by thirty one points. I'm not in

301
00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:26,920
Speaker 1: love with Pittsburgh's defense, Okay, this is I mean, both

302
00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:30,240
Speaker 1: these teams score, okay, thirty nine point seven points per

303
00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:35,040
Speaker 1: game here on this forty three point one points per

304
00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:38,320
Speaker 1: game for Wake. You got a defense in way force

305
00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:40,680
Speaker 1: it gives up thirty points a game. Defense for Pittsburgh

306
00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:43,600
Speaker 1: gives up twenty four points per game. We know about

307
00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:47,080
Speaker 1: the passing attack for both these teams, Pittsburgh eight point

308
00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:50,640
Speaker 1: four yards per pass play, Wake eight point seven yards

309
00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:53,000
Speaker 1: per pass play. You got three hundred and forty seven

310
00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:56,320
Speaker 1: yards a total of offense through the air. For Pittsburgh,

311
00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:58,280
Speaker 1: you got three hundred and twenty one yards of offense

312
00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:01,680
Speaker 1: through the air. But Wake four, his past defense is

313
00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:05,040
Speaker 1: not that bad. Seven point four is sixty fifth in

314
00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:07,840
Speaker 1: the country, to nineteen for yards is forty ninth in

315
00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,359
Speaker 1: the country. On the other side, pitt two hundred and

316
00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:14,200
Speaker 1: seventy ninth, one hundred and nineteenth, and they give up

317
00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:17,240
Speaker 1: seven point nine yards per pass play. That's ninety fifth.

318
00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:20,000
Speaker 1: I think the difference here, to be quite honest, I

319
00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,120
Speaker 1: think a difference. I think Wake's gonna move the football.

320
00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:25,720
Speaker 1: I think Wake's gonna throw the football all over Pittsburgh's defense.

321
00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:29,600
Speaker 1: And I think Pittsburgh is a little bit overrated here.

322
00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:31,320
Speaker 1: I like Kenny Picktt a lot. Okay, I'm not going

323
00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:33,000
Speaker 1: to sing here say that this this dude might not

324
00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,080
Speaker 1: be I mean, he might be a really good probe

325
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,720
Speaker 1: quarterback they're kind of comparing him to Joe Burrow, that

326
00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:39,760
Speaker 1: he might wind up being like the next Joe Burrow,

327
00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,199
Speaker 1: because here is a guy who went back to school,

328
00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:45,080
Speaker 1: did what he had to do, you know, took care

329
00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:48,119
Speaker 1: of business, and now you know, he makes It's made

330
00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:50,240
Speaker 1: a lot of people go, oh, Okay, this kid can

331
00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:51,879
Speaker 1: can slay it. This kid might be able to actually

332
00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:55,760
Speaker 1: go out there and play, and very possible. But uh,

333
00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:59,480
Speaker 1: I think that you got a little bit of an

334
00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:02,440
Speaker 1: angry Wake Forest team here. I think you got a

335
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,800
Speaker 1: Sam Hartman who has thrown for thirty four touchdowns and

336
00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:11,199
Speaker 1: ten interceptions. Their receivers are tremendous, and look I do

337
00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:12,920
Speaker 1: I think this defense for a weak is a little

338
00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:16,840
Speaker 1: bit underappreciated. I'm gonna go one unit. I'm gonna take

339
00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:20,800
Speaker 1: Wake here plus the three points Wake plus three in

340
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:24,240
Speaker 1: the AEC Championship game against Pittsburgh, and you make it

341
00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:26,480
Speaker 1: three and a half. I mean it's very possible you

342
00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,000
Speaker 1: get three and a half. You get three. In fact,

343
00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:31,200
Speaker 1: let me just check real quick here at the time,

344
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:34,719
Speaker 1: you can get three and a half. Let's make it official.

345
00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,399
Speaker 1: Wake Forest plus three and a half get over that

346
00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,359
Speaker 1: field goal in the AEC championship game. I like Wake

347
00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:44,160
Speaker 1: plus three and a half there for one unit and

348
00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:47,560
Speaker 1: the last play is man. If you want to fade this,

349
00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,720
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna get mad at you at all. Okay,

350
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:54,480
Speaker 1: this is a big number, and I absolutely hate laying

351
00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:58,800
Speaker 1: big numbers. Big ten championship game. Michigan up against Iowa.

352
00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:01,680
Speaker 1: I thought long and hard, and I talk to people

353
00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,399
Speaker 1: who look, I'm bad betting Iowa games. You guys know this.

354
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:06,359
Speaker 1: I thought they'd be eight and under, eight and a

355
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,119
Speaker 1: half wins, no way over. Did not think they be

356
00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:10,920
Speaker 1: in this game. They're in this game. They're ten in two,

357
00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:15,159
Speaker 1: seven and two Michigan eleven point favorites. They were ten

358
00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:19,320
Speaker 1: and a half. They're up to eleven point favorites. At DraftKings,

359
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:23,840
Speaker 1: I mean, number wise, fifty eight percent on Michigan with

360
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,880
Speaker 1: the handle, sixty percent of the bets are on Michigan,

361
00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,800
Speaker 1: forty two percent of the handle on Iowa. Forty percent

362
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:35,000
Speaker 1: of the bets are on Iowa. At eleven. Can Iowa score?

363
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:40,280
Speaker 1: I mean, seriously, can Iowa score? That's my number one

364
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 1: question for this game. I just don't think that they

365
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:47,880
Speaker 1: can score. And I think Michigan's going to run the ball.

366
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:50,320
Speaker 1: Down their throat Michigan ten and two against the number

367
00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:53,439
Speaker 1: this season, Iowa seven and five. Michigan's covered their last

368
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,400
Speaker 1: four games, and they have covered seven of the last eight,

369
00:19:56,880 --> 00:19:59,320
Speaker 1: eight of the last ten. Four and one on the

370
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:03,440
Speaker 1: road for Michigan, and everyone's talking about the emotional letdown. Okay,

371
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:07,240
Speaker 1: they beat Ohio State, but what if this, what if

372
00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:10,480
Speaker 1: beating Ohio State got the monkey off their back? And

373
00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 1: what if it's kind of like what happened with the

374
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:14,800
Speaker 1: Red Sox a little bit and the Red Sox who

375
00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,720
Speaker 1: came back up that big deficit. Everyone doubts they're gonna

376
00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:19,880
Speaker 1: get beat by the Yankees again in two thousand and four,

377
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:24,480
Speaker 1: and they just steamrolled the Cardinals after coming back. Like,

378
00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 1: I just wonder if Michigan answered all the questions of

379
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,280
Speaker 1: when will you beat Ohio State? It happened, When will

380
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:34,520
Speaker 1: you beat a top quality opponent, top five team, it happened.

381
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:36,520
Speaker 1: When are you going to play for a Big ten championship?

382
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 1: It happened. Now, I just wonder if Michigan now plays

383
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:46,159
Speaker 1: with an obscene amount of confidence because they've answered that question.

384
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 1: And Iowa's defense is built upon their ability to stop

385
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,440
Speaker 1: the run. I'm sorry to tap the past. Rather, they're

386
00:20:55,480 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 1: not that great against the run, Okay, and that concerns

387
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,400
Speaker 1: me a little bit. Okay, I know everyone's gonna say, wait,

388
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,159
Speaker 1: Matt three yards a rush. I was pat rush defense

389
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 1: is really good. Michigan runs five point three yards. It's

390
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 1: the quarterback, it's the running back, it's everyone, and then

391
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,439
Speaker 1: they turn around and pass it eight point two yards

392
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 1: per pass play play action pass. I just think this

393
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 1: Michigan team is too physical. And I know you wait,

394
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 1: Iowa plays physical games all the time. I get if

395
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,160
Speaker 1: you want to bet the under here forty four, I don't.

396
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 1: I think it could be. If this game was outside,

397
00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:32,239
Speaker 1: I would say take the under, but it's indoors, and

398
00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 1: I just think Michigan is gonna stop Iowa's ability to score.

399
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 1: I was only scoring, you know, twenty five points per game,

400
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 1: but that's really inflated. Four point four yards per play

401
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 1: is awful. Michigan's defense only gives up four points six

402
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 1: yards per play. That's eleventh best in the country. I

403
00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 1: just don't think Iowa scores enough. I'm gonna lay the

404
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 1: eleven points Michigan minus eleven in the Big Ten Championship game,

405
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 1: taking on the Iowah Hawkeyes. All right, if you want

406
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:03,679
Speaker 1: a for fun three leg money line parlay that I

407
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 1: will be doing personally, by the way, Michigan, Georgia Cincinnati. Okay, Michigan,

408
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 1: Georgia Cincinnati plus one twenty five on that, if you

409
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 1: would like to go ahead and jump in on that.

410
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 1: If you put Alabama in there, changes the odds tremendously,

411
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 1: and I probably will be sprinkling a little bit on

412
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:24,199
Speaker 1: Alabama money line personally just because and when are you

413
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 1: going to get these numbers for Alabama money line ever? Again?

414
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,919
Speaker 1: I mean Alabama's plus two hundred, Like what two to

415
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,919
Speaker 1: one on Bama to win the SEC championship game is insane? Again,

416
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 1: I don't know what to do with that game just yet.

417
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:40,440
Speaker 1: Tune in right for a kickoff. I'll have an official

418
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 1: play on this game for one unit for Alabama in Georgia.

419
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:44,639
Speaker 1: I just don't know what to do with it just

420
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 1: about yet. Okay, So to recap this, we're going Baylor

421
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 1: plus six or more one unit under Houston Cincinnati fifty three.

422
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,720
Speaker 1: We're going Iowa and Michigan. We're laying the eleven with

423
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,439
Speaker 1: Michigan and I'm taking the three and a half points

424
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 1: with wake Forest in Pittsburgh in the ACC Championship game.

425
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:09,439
Speaker 1: All right, those are the four plays, four units, all

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Speaker 1: in tempting fate with my bankroll in terms of where

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Speaker 1: we've been with college football. But a very good year.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully we end and we get ready for the bowl

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Speaker 1: season in the College football Playoffs, really really well. But

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Speaker 1: it's the last time we have a full slate of

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Speaker 1: games like this on a Saturday. So I want to

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Speaker 1: go out with a bang on a Saturday. And I

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Speaker 1: don't love the slate on the NFL on Sunday. It's okay,

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Speaker 1: I don't love it. So four plays for us going on.

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Speaker 1: We're taking the points with Baylor, taking the points at

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Speaker 1: wake Forest, we're laying the points with Michigan, and we're

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Speaker 1: going under fifty three for Houston and Cincinnati, Georgia and

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Speaker 1: Alabama to be determined. My names Matt Parol's following me

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. Each and every morning,

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Speaker 1: it's the Daily Juice podcast, always being brought to you

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Speaker 1: by bet MGM, The Who