WEBVTT - Putin Showed Carlson Why He Invaded Ukraine 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:10.920 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg business 0:00:10.920 --> 0:00:14.160 Week Inside from the reporters and editors who bring you 0:00:14.200 --> 0:00:18.560 America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and 0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:22.959 tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer 0:00:23.239 --> 0:00:26.040 and Tim Stenebek from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:27.400 --> 0:00:29.720 We do also want to check in on geopolitics. There's 0:00:29.720 --> 0:00:32.080 a lot going on. You heard certainly Joe and Kelly 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:33.760 talking about some of it on the US side, but 0:00:33.800 --> 0:00:36.680 as we broaden it out, there are a lot of 0:00:36.680 --> 0:00:40.040 things going on, among them US President Joe Biden criticizing 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:43.280 the extent of Israel's military campaign in Gaza as tension 0:00:43.280 --> 0:00:46.440 builds over Israeli plans to push into Rafa, where more 0:00:46.479 --> 0:00:48.680 than one million people have sought refuge. 0:00:48.720 --> 0:00:49.320 He made. 0:00:49.440 --> 0:00:52.600 The President making the comments last night in a wide 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:54.040 ranging press conference at the White House. 0:00:54.080 --> 0:00:54.920 Here's what he had to say. 0:00:55.800 --> 0:01:04.520 The conduct of the response in Gaza, in the Gaza 0:01:04.560 --> 0:01:09.880 strip has been over the top. I talked to bb 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:12.600 to open the gate. On the Israeli side, I've been 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:17.680 pushing really hard, really hard to get humanitarian assistants into Gaza. 0:01:18.480 --> 0:01:21.000 That was, of course, US President Joe Biden criticizing the 0:01:21.000 --> 0:01:23.840 extent of Israel's military campaign in Gaza that was last 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:26.880 night at the White House. The president's comments marked an 0:01:27.000 --> 0:01:31.600 escalation in his criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's prosecution 0:01:31.680 --> 0:01:34.240 of the war against Tamas. For more, we turn now 0:01:34.240 --> 0:01:37.440 to Mark Champion. He's a Bloomberg Opinion international affairs columnist. 0:01:37.480 --> 0:01:40.440 He joins us on Zoom in London. Mark, we want 0:01:40.480 --> 0:01:41.760 to go around the world with you, but we do 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:46.240 want to start in Israel this afternoon. The significance of 0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:49.480 President Biden coming out and saying this, it certainly seems 0:01:50.160 --> 0:01:53.840 like he's continuing on a path of becoming more critical 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:55.440 of Israel. What did you make of it? 0:01:57.200 --> 0:02:00.320 Yeah, it's you know, he's been on a bit of 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:05.680 a trajectory where, you know, he began after October seventh saying, 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:09.320 you know, we are with you no matter what. But 0:02:09.480 --> 0:02:13.919 as the casualties and the destruction in Gaza have increased, 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:19.560 you've seen that, you know, an increasing the cautious tone 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:22.800 to creep in with a lot of focus on you know, 0:02:22.919 --> 0:02:26.320 trying first of all to get aid in and then 0:02:26.560 --> 0:02:28.840 to get you know, focused on getting the hostages out, 0:02:29.200 --> 0:02:31.880 and increasingly a focus on getting a pause at truce 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:36.600 in the fighting. And you know there are negotiations continuing, 0:02:36.720 --> 0:02:39.959 although we don't seem to be very close at the moment, 0:02:40.160 --> 0:02:45.040 certainly nothing imminent. So yes, this is you know, another 0:02:45.080 --> 0:02:48.320 step up. At the same time, you know, he hasn't 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:51.560 said anything about restricting arm seales to Israel or anything 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:56.760 of that sort. So nothing really substantive has changed yet. 0:02:56.680 --> 0:02:59.080 Right kind of gun speaking louder than words. And I 0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:01.360 do think about that, right Mark, in terms of whether 0:03:01.400 --> 0:03:06.040 it's support of Israel or whether it's support of Ukraine. 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:08.520 What the US does says a lot about their policy. 0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:10.200 Is at a fair conclusion. 0:03:11.280 --> 0:03:16.560 Yeah, absolutely, and you know it is is critical. Probably 0:03:16.680 --> 0:03:19.880 The thing is that Israel, the conflict in Gaza is 0:03:19.919 --> 0:03:25.960 on a different scale, and you know, the opponent is 0:03:26.000 --> 0:03:29.280 on a totally different scale from what Ukraine faces in Russia. 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:33.839 So you know, Israel can get by without a lot 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:38.119 of military a being additional a being pumped in from 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:40.960 the US. With Ukraine, that's a whole different ballgame. 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:43.560 Well, let's stick with Israel for one more minute and 0:03:43.920 --> 0:03:46.320 talk more about the future of what happens in the 0:03:46.360 --> 0:03:50.160 Gaza strip. I mean, with President Biden speaking like this, 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:53.640 is there a chance that Israel does scale back what 0:03:53.680 --> 0:03:54.120 it's doing. 0:03:55.600 --> 0:03:59.280 We haven't seen any sign so far that Nyahu is 0:04:00.200 --> 0:04:05.640 very receptive to these kinds of nudges and hints, and 0:04:06.120 --> 0:04:08.240 you know, he has done something so that the US 0:04:08.280 --> 0:04:10.480 wanted he has. You know, he did have a seven 0:04:10.560 --> 0:04:14.720 day pause earlier on in the conflict. He did get 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:17.239 more aid in at a time when there was virtually 0:04:17.279 --> 0:04:20.520 nothing getting in. So the US has had some impact, 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:23.760 but it's relatively limited. And I think there's a lot 0:04:23.800 --> 0:04:27.039 of concern now because they're really you know, once you 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:31.599 move on Rafa, which is right on the Egyptian border, 0:04:31.680 --> 0:04:33.760 it is the place where people you know, would be 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:37.400 able to get out if the border was opened. Once 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:41.960 you move on there, there's really nowhere left for you know, 0:04:42.000 --> 0:04:44.920 the people of Gaza to go, and I think that 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:48.200 is where the concern is. Egypt's now extremely concerned that 0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:52.400 this could end up with people just storming the border 0:04:53.000 --> 0:04:55.680 to get out of Gaza and get to safety on 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:57.560 the Egyptian side of the border with it, which they 0:04:57.600 --> 0:05:01.600 are very very determined and not to have happened. 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:04.640 Hey, Mark, as you just noted a moment ago, the 0:05:04.839 --> 0:05:09.480 scale and risk of what faces Israel versus what faces Ukraine. 0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:11.640 It's different, and I want to go there a little 0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:15.120 bit more deeper in terms of Ukraine versus Russia. Right now, 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:19.640 Vladimir Putin Russian Vladimir Putin giving an interview to Tucker Carlson. 0:05:20.920 --> 0:05:23.440 It's very clear what his intentions are here. Correct, You're 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:25.320 right about this in a Bloomberg opinion column. 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:27.760 Yeah. 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:31.560 Absolutely. I mean, this was a great opportunity for Putin, 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:36.159 gifted to him by Chucker Carlson. He got to talk 0:05:36.240 --> 0:05:41.159 for well over two hours and to reach a big 0:05:41.200 --> 0:05:45.839 audience in the United States, a receptive audience in general, 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:50.920 and he was able to set out all of his 0:05:51.279 --> 0:05:55.440 narrative about you know, why he's in Ukraine, why he 0:05:55.520 --> 0:06:00.200 did it, what the implications are for the United States, 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:02.159 what he thinks the United States should do and the 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:06.320 Europeans should do, et cetera. And so this was quite 0:06:06.480 --> 0:06:09.920 valuable for him. You know how much impact it will 0:06:09.920 --> 0:06:13.080 have in the end, I don't know, but you know, 0:06:13.160 --> 0:06:17.000 he got more than two hours to speak and didn't 0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:21.240 really get any hard questions or any pushback of any sort. 0:06:21.480 --> 0:06:25.480 Did you learn anything about Vladimir Putin or Russia's intentions. 0:06:25.640 --> 0:06:28.479 In that interview, Mark you followed the conflict and the 0:06:28.520 --> 0:06:30.040 region very closely for years. 0:06:30.760 --> 0:06:34.320 Yeah, no, there was really nothing new here for anybody 0:06:34.400 --> 0:06:39.480 who follows the conflict closely. What I found interesting was, 0:06:40.600 --> 0:06:44.520 you know that the way in which put In approached it. 0:06:44.600 --> 0:06:48.000 So when Tucker carlsm asked him a sort of a 0:06:48.120 --> 0:06:52.200 very leading question saying, you know, you thought that the 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:55.520 United you had to invade Ukraine in February twenty twenty 0:06:55.560 --> 0:06:59.799 two because you thought the United States might be coming 0:06:59.800 --> 0:07:03.040 to it attack you in Russia. So why did you 0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:07.560 think that? And put In essentially just ignored that question, 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:10.440 which you would have thought was a log where he 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:12.880 could then, you know, come back and say, yes, we 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:14.960 were forced to do this by NATO, et cetera. It's 0:07:15.000 --> 0:07:17.400 a team that he's you know, would come back to 0:07:17.440 --> 0:07:20.080 in the interview, and he's talked about endlessly. But he 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:23.960 spent the next half an hour in basically a monologue 0:07:24.000 --> 0:07:28.840 on Russian Ukrainian history and describing why it is that he, 0:07:29.040 --> 0:07:31.840 in his view, Ukraine is not a country, and why 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:35.280 it is that much of the territory that's current Ukraine 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:38.720 he believes is in fact Russia so you know, that 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:41.080 to me was quite telling, and I think, you know, 0:07:41.160 --> 0:07:43.880 for people who don't follow it very closely and hear 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:46.680 all this stuff about, you know, how NATO pushed him 0:07:46.680 --> 0:07:49.559 to do it, I think that was actually quite worth 0:07:49.720 --> 0:07:50.200 listening to. 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:53.360 I mean, this is bottom line mark right about territorial 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:57.080 conquest for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Again there, I think 0:07:57.080 --> 0:07:59.960 folks sometimes who are far away from it, they're not 0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:02.760 over in Europe and think, Okay, how does this impact me? 0:08:02.840 --> 0:08:05.560 Although we know that there's been some impact, certainly we've 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:09.200 talked about it in terms of companies and other issues 0:08:09.200 --> 0:08:12.720 in terms of the markets. But having said that, you 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:17.200 do wonder if ultimately President Putin wins here, then what's next? 0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:17.520 Correct? 0:08:17.560 --> 0:08:19.280 And just got about thirty forty seconds here. 0:08:20.440 --> 0:08:20.640 Yeah. 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:24.840 Absolutely, I mean he was asked by Carson and he 0:08:24.880 --> 0:08:27.480 came back and said, you know, it's ridiculous. 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:29.760 Why would I you. 0:08:29.720 --> 0:08:33.400 Know, trying to go into the Baltic States or anywhere else. 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:37.520 You know, this is unique. But unfortunately he has a long, 0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:40.199 long history of saying I'm not going to do stuff. 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:41.920 I'm not going to next crime here, I'm not going 0:08:42.000 --> 0:08:45.040 to you know, go here or there. I'm not going 0:08:45.080 --> 0:08:48.560 to invade Ukraine and then he does it, so you know, 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:50.480 I think one needs to exercise caution. 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:54.120 Well, as you noted a comment about fact checking, a 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:56.840 full fact check of the interview would take several columns. 0:08:56.920 --> 0:08:59.640 So it's important right that we understand exactly what's going on, 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:02.880 you insight, so appreciate it. Mark Champion again with US 0:09:03.000 --> 0:09:06.200 international affairs columnist at Bloomberg Opinion. Check out his column 0:09:06.360 --> 0:09:09.000 on The Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot com slash Opinion. 0:09:09.120 --> 0:09:10.679 This is Bloomberg. 0:09:11.200 --> 0:09:14.760 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:18.040 live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen 0:09:18.080 --> 0:09:20.240 on Apple car Play and then brought auto with a 0:09:20.240 --> 0:09:23.920 Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:27.040 This is the season, tax season and a player, big 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:29.319 player in the space. H and R Block reported earnings 0:09:29.320 --> 0:09:32.560 this past week. On Wednesday, shares though did fall nearly 0:09:32.600 --> 0:09:35.880 eleven percent, their biggest inter day drop since the onset 0:09:35.920 --> 0:09:38.720 of the pandemic in March of twenty twenty, after the 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:41.960 company reported second quarter results. The stock, though I should 0:09:41.960 --> 0:09:44.679 point out, by the way, gaining thirty two percent last 0:09:44.760 --> 0:09:47.040 years all three percent year to date. It's up about 0:09:47.080 --> 0:09:49.640 three percent today and it did finish off its lows 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:52.400 on Wednesday. So we're delighted to actually get into the 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:55.719 business with Jeff Jones once again, President CEO. H and 0:09:55.840 --> 0:09:58.959 R Block on Zoom from Kansas City, Missouri. Or should 0:09:58.960 --> 0:10:03.040 I say Mazura because it so clear in your red 0:10:03.760 --> 0:10:07.040 sweatshirt if you will, who you are rooting for. I 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:08.640 was going to say that to the end, Jeff, but 0:10:09.240 --> 0:10:11.360 it's nice to be transparent and get it out there. 0:10:11.679 --> 0:10:12.679 I guess you're excited. 0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:15.720 About you Friday and Kansas City Carrol understand. 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:18.520 Understand, Hey, listen, how are you talk to us little 0:10:18.520 --> 0:10:21.560 bit about the business and what you guys saw last 0:10:21.640 --> 0:10:24.959 quarter and how things are evolving into the current quarter. 0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:29.080 Yeah, no, great commentary to open. We had a really 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:32.280 strong Q two. We're off to a great start to 0:10:32.320 --> 0:10:35.680 our fiscal year and we're really seeing growth in all 0:10:35.760 --> 0:10:39.760 facets of the business, small business tax. We had a 0:10:39.800 --> 0:10:44.760 really nice extension filing season. Our Emerald Advance product performed 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:47.640 very well, which actually speaks to some of the macro 0:10:47.760 --> 0:10:51.360 economic needs of the consumer, and our spruce product is 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:54.760 performing well. So the stocks kind of made almost a 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:58.760 round trip since we announced on Wednesday, But we're feeling 0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:02.200 really well positioned for for our super Bowl season, which 0:11:02.240 --> 0:11:02.840 is tax season. 0:11:03.120 --> 0:11:03.920 Well get it. 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:06.400 We'll get into some of the products because there might 0:11:06.400 --> 0:11:08.360 be some folks who are listening, like I'm not familiar 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:11.000 with the Emerald Advanced product, but that's where you guys 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:13.880 essentially give some loans right in advance of a file. 0:11:13.960 --> 0:11:16.160 Give us, give us a little bit more on that 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:19.200 color and what that tells you about maybe what's going on. 0:11:19.280 --> 0:11:20.600 We're broadly among. 0:11:20.679 --> 0:11:24.079 Main street consumers, individuals and their financial health. 0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:29.240 Absolutely so. Our Emerald Advance product is a short term 0:11:29.320 --> 0:11:33.400 loan that we offer to consumers in the holiday shopping season. 0:11:33.520 --> 0:11:37.280 So last fall in our Q two, we saw a 0:11:37.360 --> 0:11:42.720 twenty five percent increase in loan volume this year. And 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:45.920 so you know, we've talked so many times together about recession. 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:49.040 Is it happening, is it not? How's the consumer? But 0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:53.120 when we see the consumer seeking these products, it really 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:55.360 speaks to the fact that in a you know, an 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:59.080 everyday life kind of way, they are in need of cash. 0:11:59.160 --> 0:12:01.760 And that's the role at the Advanced Product place. 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:04.440 Jeff, give us some more insight and color there, because 0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:07.319 we're right now flirting with records again. On the S 0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:10.120 and P five hundred, the economic data continues to come 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:12.840 in very strong. We know there are more jobs out 0:12:12.840 --> 0:12:14.880 there than people who are looking for jobs. Right now, 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:18.200 the unemployment rate is sub four percent. Does that not 0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:20.280 match with what you're seeing from your customers. 0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:24.040 This is the irony I think we've all been trying 0:12:24.040 --> 0:12:26.800 to contend with now for several years. I mean, I'm 0:12:26.840 --> 0:12:30.400 starting to believe that these broad labels we have about 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:36.000 inflation or economy, even we see Middle America, they're just 0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:39.960 too broad to speak to the everyday reality of consumers. 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:43.040 And so I don't dispute all of that economic data 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:46.800 that we see, But we serve twenty million people a year, 0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:50.920 hard working Americans. We sit across a desk from them, 0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:54.480 or they use our software product. And when we see 0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:58.720 things like taking an Emerald Advance loan at a substantially 0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:03.280 higher rate, or we're in the season now for refund advances, 0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:07.240 or how quickly do people file their tax return, those 0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:11.880 are all very tangible indications that the consumer needs cash. 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:16.160 Well, lat I think we go ahead, No, Jack, please finish. 0:13:16.280 --> 0:13:17.760 I was just going to say, I think you know 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:22.440 we're learning that you can look at macro indicators and 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:26.600 those certainly provide direction from a company perspective. But every 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:31.080 single day, you know how the consumer is needing cash 0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:34.199 where they're spending it. You know, we we put out 0:13:34.200 --> 0:13:38.720 this report last fall called the Outlook on American Life, 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:42.240 and this gave us really deep insight about Middle America. 0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:44.680 And the first thing we learned was there isn't one 0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:49.640 Middle America. We saw a gen z and a millennial 0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:53.520 Middle America, and we saw the boomer Middle America very 0:13:53.559 --> 0:13:59.040 different attitudes and mindsets toward jobs and wage growth and employment. 0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:02.360 You know, more more millennials than ever getting a second job. 0:14:02.960 --> 0:14:05.720 So yes, we have to pay attention to the macro, 0:14:06.120 --> 0:14:08.920 but obviously we see our customer behavior every single day. 0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:11.080 It's why we like talking to you, because we dig down. 0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:13.960 You know, you mentioned the Emerald Advance product, so loans 0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:15.520 of twenty five percent. 0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:18.400 You saw on loan revenue the. 0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:21.520 Spruce product, right that allows somebody to get access to 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:23.680 their paycheck. Right a couple of days earlier, are you 0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:25.400 also seeing an uptick in that use? 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:29.640 Spruce is really off to a nice start this year, 0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:32.840 and you know, there are several things about spruce that 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:36.880 I think are what's resonating. Remember this product, it's only 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:40.560 its second year in market, and so you know, we're 0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:44.480 offering the consumer to get their federal tax refund up 0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:48.440 to six days early when they deposited on Spruce, So 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:53.280 timing really matters, very lower no fees on the product, 0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:57.400 a chance to learn about credit, a chance to build savings. 0:14:58.040 --> 0:15:02.880 So we're really positioned Spruce as a way to help 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:06.200 the hard working American be better with their money, and 0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:09.200 we're seeing the early signs of that really starting to resonate. 0:15:09.560 --> 0:15:12.720 Jeff, you also serve small business owners small businesses, so 0:15:12.760 --> 0:15:14.480 you have some good insight there. We like to talk 0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:16.800 to you about that. Give us an update on what 0:15:16.840 --> 0:15:20.440 you're seeing, because we know that small businesses account for 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:22.360 two out of every three jobs that have been added 0:15:22.680 --> 0:15:24.400 in the past twenty five years. What can you tell 0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:25.840 us about the small business community? 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:32.280 Incredibly resilient, incredibly creative. You know, this is the backbone 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:35.320 of America. It's why it's so important to us that 0:15:35.360 --> 0:15:38.720 we serve them the way we do. Our small business 0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:42.280 tax revenue was up twenty percent in the quarter, and 0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:45.680 so we're absolutely seeing small businesses. You know, in many 0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:50.520 ways they are consumers. We're talking specifically at Block small 0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:55.360 businesses nine employees are smaller and so they've had to 0:15:55.360 --> 0:15:58.680 make shifts and how they think about selling and digitizing 0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:03.280 their business. Obviously they're dealing with regulations about you know, 0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:07.200 how they deal with their business. But the small business 0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:10.600 mindset and the small business starts we continue to see 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:11.200 very strong. 0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:12.680 That's what I wanted to ask you. What you're seeing 0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:15.320 in terms of small business creation. You're seeing it more 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:18.280 more to the upside versus those shutting their doors. 0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:23.160 We are absolutely and obviously you know, many small businesses 0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:26.760 don't make it to their first year. But this is 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:31.480 the entrepreneurial spirit of America. And when the labor market changes, 0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:34.840 we see more people create starts and so we are 0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:40.640 seeing that. Remember too that from a tax perspective. If 0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:44.400 you're a consumer, but you have a side hustle, which 0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:47.600 more and more Americans are doing as a second job, 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:50.080 you know that's a small business to h and R 0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:52.880 Block because they file what we call the schedule. See, 0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:56.360 so we're seeing a lot of growth in the schedules. 0:16:55.760 --> 0:17:01.360 Net net thirty seconds left here, Jeff, how do you 0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:03.280 what are the words you use to describe the environment 0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:05.560 right now. You run a business, are you hiring? How 0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:07.480 do you describe it? And just real quickly if you could. 0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:11.359 We do not see recession. We know we have to 0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:14.000 get beyond the broad labels and manage the business in 0:17:14.080 --> 0:17:17.280 a local level. That's what we're focused on. But the 0:17:17.359 --> 0:17:21.320 consumer is resilient despite some of these pressures. They always 0:17:21.320 --> 0:17:21.880 find a way. 0:17:22.000 --> 0:17:22.720 Are you hiring? 0:17:23.720 --> 0:17:26.440 We are hiring, Yes, our business. We feel very good 0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:28.920 about how we're positioned. We have a lot of great 0:17:29.000 --> 0:17:33.280 jobs in AI and engineering and cloud. Okay, so absolutely 0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:34.240 we're hiring. 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:35.879 And are you a fan of Taylor Swift? That's what 0:17:35.920 --> 0:17:36.439 we need to know. 0:17:38.320 --> 0:17:41.119 Who cannot be a fan of Taylor Swift? Definitely achieved? 0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:43.320 All right, Jeff Jones, Good to check in with your 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:45.199 president CEO of H and R Block on zoom from 0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:47.320 Kansas City, Missaura, this is Bloomberg. 0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:52.800 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live 0:17:52.880 --> 0:17:56.040 each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on applecar Play 0:17:56.119 --> 0:17:58.960 and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business And you can 0:17:59.000 --> 0:18:02.239 also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 0:18:02.320 --> 0:18:07.320 York station, jo Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty All. 0:18:07.359 --> 0:18:09.239 Right, So we said S and P five thousand, a 0:18:09.359 --> 0:18:11.960 very round number. Right now we're at fivey twenty two 0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:14.520 on the S and P Charlie, of course, just breaking 0:18:14.600 --> 0:18:16.200 down the markets. 0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:17.840 It's a very round one. 0:18:17.920 --> 0:18:21.040 It's one that we market watchers and market technicians, I 0:18:21.040 --> 0:18:23.080 would say Tim safe to say, like to keep an 0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:23.359 eye on. 0:18:23.440 --> 0:18:25.120 Yeah, the S and ME five hundred index on track 0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:27.320 to finish above that number for the first time ever. 0:18:27.359 --> 0:18:30.840 Today it did it briefly right of the closed touch 0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:34.160 five thousand, close there, Yeah, it was seven hundred. Okay, 0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:35.840 So here's some stats that you put together, Carol. 0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:36.199 I love this. 0:18:36.560 --> 0:18:38.720 It took seven hundred and nineteen sessions for the index 0:18:38.800 --> 0:18:41.440 to set its latest one thousand a point milestone, much 0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:44.040 shorter than the one two hundred and twenty seven trading 0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:46.119 days it needed to get from two thousand back in 0:18:46.160 --> 0:18:49.000 twenty fourteen to threeenty and twenty nineteen. That's AC data 0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:51.879 compiled by Bloomberg. It's nothing compared to the four thousand, 0:18:51.920 --> 0:18:54.080 one hundred and sixty eight sessions yet from one thousand 0:18:54.400 --> 0:18:56.919 back in nineteen ninety eight to twenty and twenty fourteen. 0:18:56.960 --> 0:18:58.160 A lot of that has to do with I mean 0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:00.479 when you go from one thousand to two thousand, you're doubling. Okay, 0:19:00.520 --> 0:19:02.159 when you go from four thousand to five thousand, you're 0:19:02.160 --> 0:19:03.359 increasing by twenty five percent. 0:19:03.480 --> 0:19:04.640 No, you're absolutely right. 0:19:04.720 --> 0:19:08.840 So with what it means technically, if anything of S 0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:11.240 and P above five thousand back with us. Is Ryan Dietrich, 0:19:11.280 --> 0:19:15.720 chief market strategist at the Carson Group on zoom from Cincinnati, 0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:18.520 as we mentioned earlier, the market technician who nailed last 0:19:18.560 --> 0:19:21.280 year's rally, so we wanted to know what he thought 0:19:21.320 --> 0:19:24.200 about this milestone on the S and P five hundred. Ryan, 0:19:24.240 --> 0:19:26.239 Good to have you back with Tim and myself. So 0:19:26.840 --> 0:19:28.760 what do you make of this level? Is there something 0:19:28.800 --> 0:19:30.440 significant in it for you? 0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:33.800 Yeah, Carol and Tim, thanks for having me back. But 0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:35.920 you know one more for you. When it cracked one 0:19:36.000 --> 0:19:38.720 hundred was in nineteen sixty eight. That took forty years, 0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:41.480 from nineteen six or thirty years, sorry, yeah, it was 0:19:41.520 --> 0:19:43.560 forty years. Yeah, so it gets from you know, one 0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:47.000 hundred to one thousand, So think about that. But nonetheless, 0:19:47.040 --> 0:19:49.720 let's get into this. What does five thousand mean? On 0:19:49.840 --> 0:19:52.439 the surface, not a whole lot, we know that, but 0:19:52.600 --> 0:19:54.520 psychologically is. 0:19:54.520 --> 0:19:56.320 Really what matters. I think for investors. 0:19:56.320 --> 0:19:58.359 And the big question, of course, is okay, when you 0:19:58.440 --> 0:20:01.159 look at one thousand, two thousand, three thousand and four thousand, 0:20:01.240 --> 0:20:03.400 which I did, what happens next when you can cross 0:20:03.400 --> 0:20:05.040 these psychological levels will listen? 0:20:05.240 --> 0:20:06.920 Six months later, SP. 0:20:06.760 --> 0:20:08.879 Has never been lower, up like eight percent on average, 0:20:08.880 --> 0:20:11.840 almost double y at any time, returns of about four percent. 0:20:11.960 --> 0:20:14.960 So long winded way of saying, hey, making new highs 0:20:15.000 --> 0:20:16.719 give moment you guys a while last year saying when 0:20:16.720 --> 0:20:18.360 you're making new highs, it tends to lead to more 0:20:18.400 --> 0:20:20.960 new highs. Eventually will hit the final new high. 0:20:21.000 --> 0:20:21.480 We know that. 0:20:21.760 --> 0:20:23.920 We just don't think we're there yet, and we think 0:20:23.960 --> 0:20:26.520 this is a pretty strong sign that, hey, we're still 0:20:26.520 --> 0:20:28.080 in a bull market. We've said that for a while, 0:20:28.359 --> 0:20:31.359 and you know, just get on the ride. It's fun ride. 0:20:31.400 --> 0:20:33.439 What's the sign that tells you it is the final 0:20:33.480 --> 0:20:35.080 new high? 0:20:35.160 --> 0:20:38.000 Yeah, well, maybe like when your grandma calls you up 0:20:38.040 --> 0:20:39.960 and says let's buy something, right. I think that's that's 0:20:39.960 --> 0:20:40.320 the worry. 0:20:40.359 --> 0:20:41.080 But that's so funny. 0:20:41.119 --> 0:20:41.280 You know. 0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:44.160 Peter Atwater, who we have on the program a lot 0:20:44.320 --> 0:20:46.720 down at William and Mary, he wrote the Confidence Map. 0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:49.840 I saw a tweet today where he asked somebody if 0:20:50.119 --> 0:20:53.800 their grandma had called the nastabout AI, which I think 0:20:53.920 --> 0:20:56.680 is him sort of saying exactly what you're saying, Ryan, 0:20:56.680 --> 0:21:00.000 which is like it's starting to feel a little frothy. 0:20:59.760 --> 0:21:02.840