Speaker 1: Look at what's going on in El salbad Or. He's
Speaker 1: even gone so far now as I think he's given
Speaker 1: out like one hundred citizenships.
Speaker 2: To scientists, doctors, philosophers.
Speaker 1: I love what he said. He talked about the immigration
Speaker 1: problem in the United States. He said, we need to
Speaker 1: ask ourselves, why are people leaving our country.
Speaker 2: The things that are of real value to you. By
Speaker 2: putting capital behind them, you're generating positive return. Whether you
Speaker 2: see that in a portfolio number is to some extent
Speaker 2: less material. Your portfolio is going through the roof, but
Speaker 2: your world's collapsing around you. What's the point?
Speaker 1: I think right now, with the rise of the Internet,
Speaker 1: we're becoming more globally connected, but more locally disconnected at
Speaker 1: the same time.
Speaker 2: Even that guystory cycles. I mean, I'm watching local communities
Speaker 2: forming literally ten years ago, we're not really forming.
Speaker 1: There was someone on Twitter, a doctor. She posted a
Speaker 1: letter that she'd gotten from the entrance company by referring
Speaker 1: over the COVID patients. And she had said, if she
Speaker 1: would have referred all these covered patients, she would have
Speaker 1: made one point five million dollars. That's what how much
Speaker 1: they would have Peter.
Speaker 2: And people are waking to that, and they're saying I
Speaker 2: no longer trusted. The reason that we need them is
Speaker 2: that you don't get asymmetry without them. You won't get
Speaker 2: the eighty twenty right because if everybody was the twenty,
Speaker 2: there would be no twenty. Then everybody is like there
Speaker 2: is like, how do you get eighty percent moving right
Speaker 2: with a twenty percent move left? Like, you can't have everyone.
Speaker 2: You have to have the anomaly. That's how you get
Speaker 2: the asymmetry.
Speaker 1: So for.
Speaker 2: People like me who spend our time trying to find
Speaker 2: the asymmetry, we have to have the vast majority doing something.
Speaker 2: And for the most part, they're generally right, you know,
Speaker 2: in herds when the majority. We were talking about this
Speaker 2: the other day, right Michael's Eve. The herd are typically right,
Speaker 2: but every now and then they're wrong. And so as
Speaker 2: an asset manager looking for asymmetry, you're just spending your time.
Speaker 2: It's like, I think it was Jim Rogers. Jim, I
Speaker 2: think it was Jim Rogers. He said, look, he just
Speaker 2: waits for he doesn't want to jump over like hurdles.
Speaker 2: He waits for the one he can just step over.
Speaker 2: And so you've got to be It's like you're a surfer,
Speaker 2: what's it every seventh wave, ninth wave depending, like that's good. Yeah,
Speaker 2: there's something like that. I'm not a surfer, but I
Speaker 2: know there's some thing where it's like it.
Speaker 1: Depends on how many waves come in per set or something.
Speaker 1: But yeah, typically maybe the second, third wave or the
Speaker 1: best skipped the first kind of thing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So you there's a patience that you've got to have.
Speaker 2: It's like, you don't ride every way. It's all timing
Speaker 2: and and so you've got to you have to be
Speaker 2: patient and be like, Okay, that's where that the setup
Speaker 2: now is right and I can see it.
Speaker 1: Charlie Munger said, the big money is not made in
Speaker 1: the bay and or something.
Speaker 2: But the weeding absolutely, yeah, absolutely, So you have to
Speaker 2: have patients, and most people don't have patients, and you've
Speaker 2: got to have the ability to have that wherewithal to
Speaker 2: go left when everyone's going right. And those setups come
Speaker 2: along every now and then, but they're not that often.
Speaker 2: Again because most of the time the herd is broadly correct.
Speaker 1: But do you think the herd is broadly mostly broadly
Speaker 1: correct in certain periods of time? So what do I
Speaker 1: mean by that? Not to throw this out but just
Speaker 1: maybe for a frame of reference, you know, in a
Speaker 1: fourth turning type environment with the generational theory, where the
Speaker 1: hard times bring strong men and then at the end, right,
Speaker 1: the weak men cause bad times kind of thing. And
Speaker 1: so you might argue that we're sort of in this
Speaker 1: period in time where people are so far removed from
Speaker 1: the wealth creation aspect, right that they start making just idiotic,
Speaker 1: stupid policies because they don't just understand the world. They
Speaker 1: never worked in that world. You're familiar with generational theory, right, So,
Speaker 1: I mean it's a model. It's certainly not empirical. I
Speaker 1: don't believe it for everything, but it's one way to
Speaker 1: view the world. If you look at Germany after coming
Speaker 1: out of hyperinflation and war reparations, the country was basically
Speaker 1: broken down to nothing. Very hard times created very strong men,
Speaker 1: and they became the economic powerhouse of Europe, right in precision,
Speaker 1: German engineering and German cars and all of that. We're
Speaker 1: eighty years later right now, and what is Germany doing.
Speaker 1: They're de industrializing because you have people putting in policies
Speaker 1: that don't understand that those were the things that actually
Speaker 1: made them great in the first place. And that's just
Speaker 1: one ancidotal piece of information. But generally, and back to
Speaker 1: the point of the question, maybe at certain points in time,
Speaker 1: finding that asymmetry because of bad decisions is easier. So
Speaker 1: maybe trying to find that in Germany forty years ago
Speaker 1: might have been tough. Germany was doing great, but today
Speaker 1: you see these stupid decisions of shutting down your energy
Speaker 1: and then it's like, well, wait minute, but you're going
Speaker 1: to need the energy. So do you think that's true
Speaker 1: or I.
Speaker 2: Think it's one hundred percent true? And I think you
Speaker 2: have cycles within cycles that distribution that we just discussed,
Speaker 2: where you have roughly twenty percent of individuals that will
Speaker 2: move a certain way, and you'll have the market moving
Speaker 2: sayety percent of the time a certain way, and those
Speaker 2: things generally generally true and they become so there is
Speaker 2: there's a cycle pattern there. Within that cycle, you'll have
Speaker 2: the generational there. So let's take this and let's just
Speaker 2: think about the business cycle roughly a seven to two
Speaker 2: sort of twelve year cycle. Everybody most everyone is relatively
Speaker 2: familiar with it, and so you can look at that
Speaker 2: as a cycle. Now, within that cycle, you're going to
Speaker 2: have individuals that profit often that twenty percent will profit
Speaker 2: at the tail end of either. They'll profit from the
Speaker 2: tail end of either because they'll identify, oh, this is
Speaker 2: the end of that business cycle. This is when assets
Speaker 2: get cheap, and they'll buy them. And then in the
Speaker 2: opposite they that's too expensive and they'll sell them, and
Speaker 2: vice versa. In fact, your Greek shippers have been extraordinary,
Speaker 2: Your Greek shipping families have been extraordinary successful over generations
Speaker 2: doing that very thing. Because shipping is a very cyclical business.
Speaker 2: It's extraordinarily capital intensive, which means it's debt financed. The
Speaker 2: debt markets themselves have their own credit cycle. The commodity markets,
Speaker 2: which the which the shipping space is typically tied to,
Speaker 2: has its own cycles, and so those individual families have
Speaker 2: often been able to just identify those particular cycles and
Speaker 2: just pretty much time them. Right. So there's like your
Speaker 2: business cycle tied in with a longer term debt cycle. Right,
Speaker 2: So the longer term debt cycle will simply exacerbate your
Speaker 2: existing business cycles. You're going to have a big business
Speaker 2: cycle at the tail ends of either of the debt cycle,
Speaker 2: which is the different sort of eighty year cycle, right,
Speaker 2: or sometimes there's a thirty years debt cycle as well.
Speaker 2: But so to your question, you have these broader cycles,
Speaker 2: and I think the same individuals and the pest personalities
Speaker 2: will always exist and they will just have an exacerbated
Speaker 2: result within the context of those cycles. And it's very
Speaker 2: unique in this period of time that you and I
Speaker 2: are sitting down now in that we have multiple of
Speaker 2: these cycles all converging at once. And I know you've
Speaker 2: you've done a lot of fantastic work on this, and
Speaker 2: we have a lot of those cycles that are all
Speaker 2: prevalent now. And what's really fascinating is that the longer
Speaker 2: the cycles, the less well known they are, which is
Speaker 2: for obvious reasons. A business cycle, you know, you can
Speaker 2: grow up and you're like, oh dad lost his business
Speaker 2: and any like. You know, people have a visitor have
Speaker 2: an impact within a business cycle where they can sort
Speaker 2: of identify it. Longer term debt cycles that don't because
Speaker 2: they're multi generational.
Speaker 1: We know, like fifty years that's like our windows exactly.
Speaker 2: And you might hear stories about grandma or grandpa and things,
Speaker 2: and you know, if the curious of us will look
Speaker 2: at that and go, what does that mean? What happened?
Speaker 2: And investigated and then they'll see, oh, there's something going
Speaker 2: on here, and what was what happened to grandpa back then?
Speaker 2: Looks like it's kind of happening now. And they start
Speaker 2: piecing things together and they're like, there's something going on. Yeah, brother.
Speaker 2: But again, when you go in long, long cycles like
Speaker 2: your revolutionary cycle, two and fifty year cycle, most of
Speaker 2: us have got no idea. So it's the very very
Speaker 2: curious who look at that and go are we there?
Speaker 2: And what does that mean if we are? And what
Speaker 2: are the probabilities? And so like. For an asset manager
Speaker 2: like me, it's not just identifying the cycles. It's part
Speaker 2: in large part, it's pricing the probability because it's not
Speaker 2: just like, oh, okay, we might have a crash in
Speaker 2: say housing, now I want to go and buy cheap housing, right,
Speaker 2: so you can look for that, but it's like, what
Speaker 2: is cheap housing mean? What is it? What are the ratios?
Speaker 2: What does it need to look like? You know? So?
Speaker 2: And there's so there's two ways that you can go
Speaker 2: about it. One is just simply just looking for cheap value,
Speaker 2: and so you can take historical metrics and go, okay,
Speaker 2: we know it's roughly cheap at two times annual incomes right,
Speaker 2: and it's really expensive it's seven, eight, nine times, you know,
Speaker 2: and anything in between is like, well, we're probably somewhere
Speaker 2: in between in the cycle. So you can do that,
Speaker 2: and then if you do that consistently, you'll go, oh,
Speaker 2: there's cycles. Yeah, whenever it keeps getting cheap every like,
Speaker 2: you know, it's kind of a repeating affair that keeps
Speaker 2: getting cheap and then it kind of keeps getting expensive,
Speaker 2: So you start seeing these cycles within. I'm just using
Speaker 2: real estate as an example because it's one that many
Speaker 2: people are more familiar with. But so, so you can
Speaker 2: do that, or you can look at the cycle paer
Speaker 2: and go, okay, what does that look like? And what
Speaker 2: are the factors you look at? So I really enjoy
Speaker 2: looking at at it from multiple angles, and you know,
Speaker 2: so like my business partner in the fund, he's very
Speaker 2: very good at just the granular like what is cheap?
Speaker 2: What are the p E ratios, what are the sectors
Speaker 2: that are exhibiting these types of metrics that would ordinarily
Speaker 2: identify something as being worth looking at at least? And
Speaker 2: then I will often look at that macro space and
Speaker 2: go what is like where should I be and very
Speaker 2: often we we we converge on something and I'm like,
Speaker 2: different angles. You're from very different angles because we've got
Speaker 2: very you know, he's a mathematician, and so it's you know,
Speaker 2: I think that's that's those what you're talking about. Those
Speaker 2: sort of cycles, are they manifest themselves? They repeat?
Speaker 1: And so what are the big cycles that you're seeing
Speaker 1: that the trends that you're seeing that you're sort of
Speaker 1: excited about with your.
Speaker 2: Fund Well, hm, I think the I think the largest
Speaker 2: is meaning, I think the largest debt is worth focusing
Speaker 2: on is the long term debt cycle because it has
Speaker 2: probably the most broad impact. It's the largest asset class
Speaker 2: is debt debt markets. And we have this extraordinary set
Speaker 2: up where we have the highest levels of debt globally
Speaker 2: and simultaneously you have the lowest relative interest rates, which
Speaker 2: is which is an anomaly?
Speaker 1: And is it an anomaly though, because isn't it the
Speaker 1: low interest rates that allowed for the such high debt
Speaker 1: levels as debt As as interest rates continue to get
Speaker 1: cut in half, debt was able to double yep.
Speaker 2: Yep. It's just that in the past often that has
Speaker 2: been corrected by various market forces, and so the market
Speaker 2: forces that we've had this time have often been overwhelmed.
Speaker 2: We had it in eight you know, many of us
Speaker 2: looked at and we thought, okay, this is going to
Speaker 2: correct a lot of that death cycle. And guess what
Speaker 2: they literally did the opposite. They flipped the swipt and
Speaker 2: they flipped the switch and pushed it up. And so
Speaker 2: you know, then you have to recalibrate. I mean, I
Speaker 2: recall sitting. I had just exited a whole lot of
Speaker 2: real estate in November six because I'm like, this is
Speaker 2: fucking insane, this is right. I can't make a case anymore.
Speaker 2: And I couldn't find anything of value. So part of
Speaker 2: that was like I knew there wasn't I knew the
Speaker 2: values that existed weren't particularly there weren't asymmetric on the upside,
Speaker 2: partly because I couldn't no longer find anything that made
Speaker 2: any sense to buy, and so like and it's like, well,
Speaker 2: if you wouldn't buy what you own today, why do
Speaker 2: you own it? Right? Because often we get caught, you know,
Speaker 2: owning things that we own. But if you woke up
Speaker 2: every morning and you said, would I buy everything in
Speaker 2: my portfolio? I think that's a very good way to
Speaker 2: look at it.
Speaker 1: That is a good way too.
Speaker 2: Then you assess it from a different angle, right because
Speaker 2: you're not married. This isn't like something that you don't
Speaker 2: have to own it. You just you can get rid
Speaker 2: of it if you don't want it. And so when
Speaker 2: you view things from that perspective, I looked at the
Speaker 2: stuff I owned, I'm like, no, I wouldn't buy this,
Speaker 2: Like why would I buy this? And I'm like, well,
Speaker 2: that's obvious. I need to sell it in any event,
Speaker 2: Then we had the you know, and I didn't know
Speaker 2: that there was a crisis. I just there would be
Speaker 2: a crisis. I just knew the probability of upside for
Speaker 2: me was no longer there, and I knew that the
Speaker 2: risks that existed were growing every day. That was enough
Speaker 2: for me to go, don't I shouldn't be involved anymore.
Speaker 2: I have to get out of this. And then at
Speaker 2: the same time, there was nothing of real value that
Speaker 2: I could find. You know, when I searched across asset classes,
Speaker 2: I really struggled, and you know what, so my default
Speaker 2: was to go to cash, but that was the asset
Speaker 2: class that was undervalued. So like by default, I'll ended
Speaker 2: up buying the deep value asset, which was literally cash.
Speaker 2: So there's many ways you can go about like kind
Speaker 2: of finding deep value, if you will. But further to
Speaker 2: the point like that was that was then eight. And
Speaker 2: then when that hits I was like, Okay, this is
Speaker 2: gonna we need this, We need a cleansing of the system.
Speaker 2: And then when I saw the FED stepping in and
Speaker 2: every imaginable three letter freaking quantit et of this and that,
Speaker 2: and like, I was like, this is what they're going
Speaker 2: to do. They're just going to push this thing hard
Speaker 2: and further than it should do, which is going to
Speaker 2: create an ever greater problem. But that's where they're going
Speaker 2: to go, which then led me into saying, Okay, what
Speaker 2: are the consequences of these actions that they're going to take?
Speaker 2: And for me at the time, the consequences of those
Speaker 2: actions were that capital was going to have to go
Speaker 2: to the far end of the risk curve because the
Speaker 2: way that they were going to do that was to
Speaker 2: lower interest rates, which meant the debt was going to higher,
Speaker 2: which was just alluded to. But the lowering of interest
Speaker 2: rates meant that anybody that was dependent on income from
Speaker 2: your bond market was going to be in trouble, which
Speaker 2: is your pension funds, and your pension funds and your
Speaker 2: mutual funds are humongous, the trillions and trillions of dollars
Speaker 2: in value, and so these guys typically have to get
Speaker 2: roughly a seven percent coupon just to live, just to
Speaker 2: stay aboard. How do you get a seven percent coupon
Speaker 2: on a bond portfolio, mostly bond portfolio when interest rates
Speaker 2: are two points So what it meant was they're going
Speaker 2: to have to take more risk within the bond portfolio.
Speaker 2: I equalpriate debt, but even that was like it was
Speaker 2: still like sub seven even in the junk bond market.
Speaker 2: So the portion of their portfolio that they could take
Speaker 2: equity exposure, you had to take the greatest equity exposure
Speaker 2: imaginable just to try and live. So I went and
Speaker 2: set up a venture capital firm. I'm like, this is
Speaker 2: where the money is going to go, and that's where
Speaker 2: it went. So like you have into high end risk
Speaker 2: growth quote unquote growth assets, Silicon Valley, shit, anything, growth, right,
Speaker 2: And the more capital that poured in, there's also like
Speaker 2: there's a feedback loop in that if you put enough
Speaker 2: capital into any sector, you will see results. It doesn't
Speaker 2: necessarily mean that net that's productive. Like you can have
Speaker 2: eighty percent of them all turned into garbage, and you
Speaker 2: can have some of them actually succeed and so on
Speaker 2: and so forth. But you can still have trillions go
Speaker 2: in and you could have let's just say, ease of numbers,
Speaker 2: ten billion go in and five come out, right, so
Speaker 2: you've lost fifty percent of value. But the ones that
Speaker 2: are still survive people have done well in them, so
Speaker 2: and to some extent, you almost need that as a
Speaker 2: bit of like creative destruction. So like you don't think
Speaker 2: about the dot coms. We had tons of money poured
Speaker 2: into dot coms, but look, it changed the world. Yeah,
Speaker 2: you know, there was a whole lot of people that
Speaker 2: lost a shitload of money, but you know, over time
Speaker 2: it changed the world. So we had a lot of
Speaker 2: money that was going into high end risk assets. You
Speaker 2: just needed to see numbers, You need to see growth.
Speaker 2: It was the whole eyeball stage. You know, companies that
Speaker 2: were getting more eyeballs, they get higher valuations. So like,
Speaker 2: it didn't need to make if you've purely looked at
Speaker 2: it from pe ratios and cash flows and all this,
Speaker 2: it didn't make sense. But if you understood that cycle
Speaker 2: and you understood why the capital was going to flow
Speaker 2: a certain way as a consequence of central bank actions,
Speaker 2: like that's where it had to go. Like it didn't matter,
Speaker 2: you know if you're the asset manager running a pension fund,
Speaker 2: like what are you going to do? Yeah, because part
Speaker 2: of it is like you couldn't. They can only invest
Speaker 2: in certain asset classes as a mandate. That's how it is.
Speaker 1: Do you study like long like old insurance companies and
Speaker 1: how they invest for their capital. I've been thinking about
Speaker 1: the life insurance company specifically and how dangerous it is
Speaker 1: for them to write the actuary tables, right, they have
Speaker 1: to really get good at like coming up with the
Speaker 1: time of death for those people they can write risk properly.
Speaker 1: And some of these like whole life insurance vehicles, right,
Speaker 1: they guarantee four percent or six percent return, But how
Speaker 1: do they get that in a zero rate environment? So
Speaker 1: they obviously were having they were having to move out
Speaker 1: further and further on the risk curve as well.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 1: But now with the pandemic and because of the COVID vaccine,
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be way our sides on there.
Speaker 2: I don't want to be any any of them.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so they're gonna be way outsides on estimating those
Speaker 1: times of death. But also at the same time, the
Speaker 1: luos are on the risk curve at the same time,
Speaker 1: so it's almost like this double whammy.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I haven't done a lot of research into that. It's
Speaker 1: something I've been thinking about. I'm just curious if.
Speaker 2: You know it's I wrote. I wrote articles about this
Speaker 2: in Gosh. I think it must have been twenty late
Speaker 2: twenty maybe twenty one, pointing out that there was that
Speaker 2: there was risk within the insurance market. I don't. I
Speaker 2: don't typically delve too deeply once I cannot identify our
Speaker 2: risk because my job is to make money, and I
Speaker 2: make money. On the log side, we don't short for
Speaker 2: the most part. Occasionally we may take some sort of
Speaker 2: option positions, but we never go We never use leverage
Speaker 2: insofar as as being fully exposed, so we'd have we
Speaker 2: might buyput some calls know an exposure, but generally it's
Speaker 2: just a long or long only portfolio. So if I don't,
Speaker 2: if I identify something where I don't want to be
Speaker 2: very very hard to actually be a successful short seller.
Speaker 2: The few people last careers trying to do exactly and
Speaker 2: I've lost money doing it. And the lesson for me,
Speaker 2: just in terms of my own skill set is just
Speaker 2: don't go near it, know what not to touch, and
Speaker 2: if there is an asymmetry within that market, I need
Speaker 2: to find it on the upside. In other words, if
Speaker 2: X happens, what are the consequences? What's the second third
Speaker 2: order thinking? If life insurance companies do fail on whatever,
Speaker 2: if the annuities fail, like, then what are the consequences?
Speaker 2: And is there anything that's then asymmetric? In other words,
Speaker 2: could I buy some particular asset that, as a consequence,
Speaker 2: is going to go really high, that's very very cheap.
Speaker 2: Now that's what's interesting to me. If I can't find it,
Speaker 2: I just walk a hang. Okay, I know I don't
Speaker 2: want to be involved in that. Will let me keep looking.
Speaker 2: I'm just going to keep looking for what actually represents Yeah.
Speaker 1: All right, I want to take a break just real
Speaker 1: quick and say that. You know, as we're talking about
Speaker 1: bitcoin and digital assets, the question really comes down to, like,
Speaker 1: are you tired of the global elites robbing you blind
Speaker 1: through all this money printing that's happening, And if so,
Speaker 1: then you need to be holding your wealth outside of that,
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Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: There's going to be top speakers there, companies, thought leaders
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Speaker 1: Let's turn to something maybe a little bit that you
Speaker 1: have a little more interest in, maybe it's a little
Speaker 1: more exciting. So you were talking about sort of a
Speaker 1: new focus that you have, potentially a new fund that
Speaker 1: you want to set up, so maybe I don't know
Speaker 1: how much you want to get into it, but working
Speaker 1: on technology for sort of this regime chain cycle that
Speaker 1: we're in right now. So we talked about yesterday, maybe
Speaker 1: like as it in tech, but you're also talking about
Speaker 1: like grain crafts things like that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's kind of a side project, and it's
Speaker 2: it's not I'm not running it. I'm partly the brains
Speaker 2: behind it. It's it's basically addressing the great reset, which
Speaker 2: is kind of It's still amusing to me that when
Speaker 2: you mentioned that where people go conspiracy theories like it's
Speaker 2: literally there's a book written about it called that, I
Speaker 2: mean called that. You have policymakers.
Speaker 1: YouTube still a warrant to know, I know.
Speaker 2: It's just it's mind boggling to me how how brainwashed
Speaker 2: people can be. But nevertheless, there is an agenda in
Speaker 2: play with respect to changing society. Fundamentally, I don't believe
Speaker 2: it's going to work for the same reason that communism
Speaker 2: has never worked. That doesn't mean they're not going to
Speaker 2: continue to push it. The solution to it isn't In
Speaker 2: my book, it's not necessarily to fight it. I think
Speaker 2: it's very, very difficult to fight that force with the
Speaker 2: same strategy. If you think about if you think about
Speaker 2: the wu flu mandates that were put in place where
Speaker 2: you needed to get the safe and effective otherwise you'd
Speaker 2: lose your job and so on and so forth. In
Speaker 2: large part, the lesson that I learned there was the
Speaker 2: solution wasn't to fight it face on necessarily. The solution
Speaker 2: was just to have an alternative. If you like, for example,
Speaker 2: if you were a school teacher and you were given
Speaker 2: this ultimatum and I had an option for you, and
Speaker 2: I was like, yeah, you can go and work here
Speaker 2: and do this, and there is all parts and there
Speaker 2: is no requirement for anything to be mandated, and maybe
Speaker 2: it's even sixty percent of your income. There are many
Speaker 2: people who would have taken that part and said, yeah,
Speaker 2: I will do that. That's how I believe how you
Speaker 2: find it. You build a parallel system, you build alternatives.
Speaker 2: It is the It is the alternatives and the growth
Speaker 2: of the alternatives that allow for you to have optionality.
Speaker 2: When you have optionality, the power is taken away, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's the history, that's the model from history, right.
Speaker 1: I mean, the colause of the USSR was really driven
Speaker 1: by those parallel markets, those outdated and by people opting
Speaker 1: out right because sort of there's the meme of like
Speaker 1: the political leader out over the cliff on the ledge
Speaker 1: with the piece of wood and the crowd sits downing
Speaker 1: on it, and if they move away, he falls right,
Speaker 1: and so like, as long as we give power to
Speaker 1: that system. That system stays in power.
Speaker 2: You just step out of it.
Speaker 1: And so you just step out of it, rather than
Speaker 1: try to fight it head on, you just I'll just
Speaker 1: opt out. Go over here. And so it does two things.
Speaker 1: I mean, one it it caused them to lose their
Speaker 1: power and their control over that situation. But two, when
Speaker 1: it inevitably fails, then there's this secondary system, this life raft,
Speaker 1: if you will, to help cushion the fall.
Speaker 2: So it's those life rafts that we're focused on addressing
Speaker 2: through a venture capital arm where we'll be funding and
Speaker 2: resourcing existing projects typically already profitable, that are addressing those
Speaker 2: And it's across multiple avenues that are all being utilized
Speaker 2: as vectors of attack. Health, agriculture. With respect to our
Speaker 2: food supplies, it's extraordinarily difficult now to find food that
Speaker 2: is not GMO, there's not laced with pesticides, that is
Speaker 2: not even I mean it's difficult now to find chicken
Speaker 2: that's free range, hasn't been laced with hormones to make
Speaker 2: them fat and feed with corn all that long. Like
Speaker 2: the quantity of protein that our bodies require, we're going
Speaker 2: to eat, We're gonna have to eat so much more
Speaker 2: of that garbage just to get the nutrients that we need.
Speaker 2: So this but there are already.
Speaker 1: Trying to get two hundred grams of protein to day,
Speaker 1: hard to get that bloody hot.
Speaker 2: But part of that is like, and I've seen research
Speaker 2: studies on us. For example, you take a lettuce that
Speaker 2: was in the nineteen forties I think was the nineteen forties.
Speaker 2: In order for us to get the same nutrients out
Speaker 2: of a lettuce, now we have to eat almost ten lettuces.
Speaker 1: Yeah, because the soil.
Speaker 2: So it's because the soil has been been depleted, and
Speaker 2: largely it has been depleted through various interventions and so
Speaker 2: on and so forth. So anyways, point because and then
Speaker 2: of course healthcare is another one. So and we're seeing
Speaker 2: already the market forces in play here. There are many
Speaker 2: people who are distrustful now of the medical industry, shall
Speaker 2: we say, for obvious reasons. And so now they're looking
Speaker 2: for alternatives, and the alternatives are cropping up, and they
Speaker 2: are getting enormous because there's so few of them. It's
Speaker 2: like the asymmetry of supply and demand, right. I mean,
Speaker 2: we're seeing a lot of this in Mexico. And they
Speaker 2: you spend some time there, you know, all sort of
Speaker 2: all because it's a less regulated mand and look, to
Speaker 2: some extent, that's been the case for decades now. If
Speaker 2: you wanted to go and get stem cell research or
Speaker 2: stem cells done things like that, that's been the place
Speaker 2: to go. You're not going to do it in the
Speaker 2: US anyways. So those sorts of things we're seeing literally
Speaker 2: as being quite asymmetric, and there is a value proposition
Speaker 2: there where basically I think that that's part of that
Speaker 2: parallel system that we absolutely need where you're being mandated
Speaker 2: and told you have to go and use you have
Speaker 2: to use these particular medical providers. And we know that
Speaker 2: those medical providers haven't had a very biased opinion because
Speaker 2: the people that actually pay them aren't US. They're requiring
Speaker 2: other participants to literally have their license and their jobs.
Speaker 1: And so there was someone on Twitter, a doctor who
Speaker 1: posted went pretty viral a couple of days ago, maybe
Speaker 1: we coul Ago and she I think it was. She
Speaker 1: posted a letter that she had gotten from the Entrance
Speaker 1: company by referring over the COVID patients, and she had
Speaker 1: said if she would have referred all these COVID patients,
Speaker 1: she would have made one point five million dollars. That's
Speaker 1: what how much they would have paid her. Yeah, think
Speaker 1: about the incentives around that.
Speaker 2: So to your point, yeah, yeah, and people are wiking
Speaker 2: to that and they're saying, I no longer trusted and
Speaker 2: so I'm looking for alternatives. So if there are no
Speaker 2: If there are none, that's a very bad sit up
Speaker 2: because you're kind of stuck. But there are some. Yeah,
Speaker 2: there's a lot, and there's quite a lot more, and
Speaker 2: so that feedback mechanism is now working. You know, the
Speaker 2: way down the road gets something done and he talks
Speaker 2: to Freddy and the next thing you know, you got
Speaker 2: off a dozen people are like, maybe that's not so bad.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, And I mean just a general breakdown in
Speaker 1: the healthcare system overall. So I've just seen a big
Speaker 1: trend for more concierge type medicine. Obviously there's a lot
Speaker 1: of medical tours in that happens. People are paying for
Speaker 1: that medical stuff. So and then then you add this
Speaker 1: on top of that, so certainly an explosion there. You
Speaker 1: mentioned the food, Are those the two areas that you're
Speaker 1: thinking like food and medicine?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: What about communications? Because censorship seems to be like the
Speaker 1: number one attack factor right now. Look look at Elon
Speaker 1: Musk like the richest man in the world. I mean,
Speaker 1: he's the attack vector right now, and I don't know
Speaker 1: how much longer he's gonna be able to withstand the
Speaker 1: forces coming against them. You can see what's going on
Speaker 1: with such a ship all around the world. Ireland is
Speaker 1: sort of maybe the tip of the spear of Brazil
Speaker 1: as well, but even in the United States, with the
Speaker 1: release of the Twitter files, we can see how the
Speaker 1: CIA has been using social media platforms and whatnot. So
Speaker 1: does that fall into that or not the tech.
Speaker 2: Side At the moment, we're simply looking at that which
Speaker 2: we have in front of us, where we can get
Speaker 2: our hades around it, and where it represents decent value.
Speaker 2: You know, there's an ideological approach and that we want
Speaker 2: and need a lot of things. But we're also understanding
Speaker 2: of the fact that like I'm a macro guy, I
Speaker 2: don't know shit about technology. Sure not to use the phone,
Speaker 2: and I can read and I can understand broadly how
Speaker 2: master works and how decentralized system blah blah blah.
Speaker 1: So use trying to pick and choose winners in that environment.
Speaker 2: I'm not that guy. I'm not their guy.
Speaker 1: So put, you're that guy.
Speaker 2: But within the net, no, not even there, but like
Speaker 2: within the within the network that we have, we're identifying
Speaker 2: participants that have those skills and have proven them. They're
Speaker 2: already doing things that are verifiable and are addressing these issues.
Speaker 2: And so our role is basically to partner with them
Speaker 2: and to network all of these these various aspects together
Speaker 2: and and and basically build a better world. So so
Speaker 2: that's the idea. It's so at the moment, you know,
Speaker 2: it's for still relatively early stages. It's been quite a
Speaker 2: long time in sort of brain formation over the last
Speaker 2: four four ideas. But for the moment, it's going to
Speaker 2: be like agriculture, healthcare. Those are the two that we've identified.
Speaker 2: There is a bunch of tech stuff that we have
Speaker 2: looked at, but it's it's again, this is not designed
Speaker 2: to be like early stage startup type stuff. You know
Speaker 2: that in order to do that you really need to
Speaker 2: be an expert in that. Yeah, and I'm not, and
Speaker 2: my partners are not yet. We're business operators, you know,
Speaker 2: or I'm a fund manager. They are very very successful
Speaker 2: business operators. So but so we can use the skills
Speaker 2: that we have and then again within the network, identify
Speaker 2: individuals that we can partner with to move those things forward.
Speaker 2: So that's the broad.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love it. You know, something I talk about
Speaker 1: quite often, I mean in sort of a convergence of
Speaker 1: two things, but like one sort of like Warren Buffett's
Speaker 1: like deal box, where it's like, hey, identify the couple
Speaker 1: things that you know like or have interest in, you know,
Speaker 1: passionate about, expertise, and just focus on that. Yeah, you know,
Speaker 1: Buffett sort of preached a lot of concentration in that
Speaker 1: in that regards, right, and so I've found just in
Speaker 1: my own life, like things that you're interested in you
Speaker 1: spend more time in. And to be good at any
Speaker 1: of these things, you have to spend a lot of
Speaker 1: time there. That's number one. But even more importantly I
Speaker 1: talk about, you know, really building the world that we want,
Speaker 1: and really it's a message of personal responsibility. I know
Speaker 1: that we both share, but like if we want to
Speaker 1: change the world, it's like up to us, Like we
Speaker 1: can't sit back and hope that a politician is going
Speaker 1: to come save it for us. And so then like
Speaker 1: utilizing our resources, our money potentially and resources in order
Speaker 1: to build that world right, so you see a problem
Speaker 1: with the food supply, will if all things are equal,
Speaker 1: why wouldn't I just invest in to help the food supply?
Speaker 2: Then?
Speaker 1: If I can make just as much money there as
Speaker 1: I can buy in China stocks or whatever else, like,
Speaker 1: why wouldn't I put it there? And so that's something
Speaker 1: I talk about as well, right, like specifically around the
Speaker 1: bitcoin fund that I have, and just in general. Right,
Speaker 1: it's like we have to put our money up where
Speaker 1: our mouth is, right, we have to invest into making
Speaker 1: the world better for ourselves. And you know, maybe not
Speaker 1: so much in this case, but even maybe just to
Speaker 1: the listeners I talk about, even if if that means
Speaker 1: you get a lesser return, or maybe you might even
Speaker 1: lose a little bit, Like that's sort of the battle
Speaker 1: that we're fighting today. Right, So if you think about
Speaker 1: like our founding fathers, I mean, they fought a war
Speaker 1: and they died, they lost every I mean a lot
Speaker 1: of them died. Right today, likely we don't have to.
Speaker 1: But if we think about we're fighting in a war,
Speaker 1: which I think we both kind of see that, then
Speaker 1: maybe our sacrifice is just putting our time and attention,
Speaker 1: money and money towards building that world I.
Speaker 2: Don't see it quite in the same way in that
Speaker 2: think about the last four years. Money gives you typically optionality,
Speaker 2: and it gives you a certain lifestyle. Our lifestyle got
Speaker 2: taken away in many respects and it hasn't even come
Speaker 2: back in large part. Right, And George mentioned this the
Speaker 2: other night, she said, you know, if you took us
Speaker 2: back to like twenty nineteen. You know, most of our
Speaker 2: port photos are up a lot since twenty nineteen, But
Speaker 2: would you go back in terms of your net worth
Speaker 2: to twenty nineteen for the quality of life that you had?
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course, mostly what I want money for it anyway,
Speaker 1: exactly so.
Speaker 2: That life that you're looking at the things that are
Speaker 2: of real value to you, by putting capital behind them,
Speaker 2: you're generating positive return. Whether you see that in a
Speaker 2: portfolio number is to some extent less material, right Like
Speaker 2: if I know that I can get a high quality
Speaker 2: food supply automatically all the time, and I know where
Speaker 2: that food's coming from. I know where my eggs come from,
Speaker 2: I know where my beef comes from. I know where
Speaker 2: all this stuff comes from. I know it's not laced
Speaker 2: with pesticides or injected with mRNA vaccines or any of
Speaker 2: this other garbage. Who like what I'd rather eat that
Speaker 2: and make another four five million dollars a year. No,
Speaker 2: I wouldn't because what's the point, Like, I don't need
Speaker 2: any more money.
Speaker 1: Well, I think we're saying the same thing.
Speaker 2: It's but yeah, all I'm saying is that the value
Speaker 2: that you like. If you think about value, often we're
Speaker 2: just looking going, it's a number on a screen, right,
Speaker 2: but you go, typically, what are you going to do
Speaker 2: with that number on screen? You're going to transfer it
Speaker 2: into You're going to go and buy your meat, You're
Speaker 2: gonna go and buy these things. Like, Well, if you
Speaker 2: can get the same return by just having those things
Speaker 2: and having that security of supply, I'm like, you know,
Speaker 2: that's a return. I'm like, Oh, a education, that's another
Speaker 2: angle that we're looking at. If I can know that
Speaker 2: my kids are not being indoctrinated, Like, what's the price
Speaker 2: you pay for that? Because that's a price, that's a
Speaker 2: huge price. That's their entire lives if they get indoctrinated
Speaker 2: in future generation and future generation. So you know, it's
Speaker 2: like I had this oh cracky years and years ago
Speaker 2: to be maybe twenty two or something. I remember backpacking
Speaker 2: through Bolivia. I've done a lot of that, a lot
Speaker 2: of back, but it was just some it was an
Speaker 2: experience I had. I remember I was done going to
Speaker 2: I think it's bay de la Luna, right, and very
Speaker 2: poor country. Most of it's like shanties and you drive
Speaker 2: through garbage and shanties and poor people and everything else.
Speaker 2: And there was like this enclave of really wealthy people,
Speaker 2: beautiful homes but they're all at like nine foot high
Speaker 2: walls with raizor wire. Some of them had armed guards
Speaker 2: on the gates. And I remember looking at that thinking, yeah,
Speaker 2: these people have got relatively good lives. But at the
Speaker 2: same time, I'm like, would I want to go live there?
Speaker 2: I'm like, no, I would much rather just have an
Speaker 2: average house in the suburbs where my kids can go
Speaker 2: and play in the streets. Yeah. Like you know, so
Speaker 2: part of that is what we're talking about, Like, what
Speaker 2: is the real value if your whole world, your portfolio
Speaker 2: is going through the roof, but your world's collapsing around you,
Speaker 2: what's the point?
Speaker 1: I agre I put out a long Twitter throughout the
Speaker 1: other day that went pretty viral, and it basically said
Speaker 1: the exact same thing, because in the bigcoin community, a
Speaker 1: lot of people have gotten very extreme and they think
Speaker 1: that buying anything other than bigwoin is a scam because
Speaker 1: nothing's going to outperform Bitcoin. And so I just put
Speaker 1: all your money and bigoin. And they call real estate
Speaker 1: a scam, and they think that people coaching and putting
Speaker 1: that information and selling that that's a scam. And I mean,
Speaker 1: it's just gotten very toxic. Anyway, So I put out
Speaker 1: this long thread because real estate's a scam.
Speaker 2: But I'm a.
Speaker 1: Father, I got kids, and I don't like having to
Speaker 1: move my family all around because the renter wants to
Speaker 1: kick me out and this and that. I want my
Speaker 1: kids to grow up next to the kids, and so
Speaker 1: I put out this long thread and I said, look,
Speaker 1: I feel like a lot of you guys have lost
Speaker 1: the plot here, Like you have to understand we don't
Speaker 1: want money, right, we want the things money buys us.
Speaker 1: And to me, my kids growing up in this environment
Speaker 1: is worth. That's what I want the money for. That's
Speaker 1: the whole point. Like who cares how much this bitcoin
Speaker 1: is worth in thirty years from now? My kids are
Speaker 1: here now, I won't get that time back. And so
Speaker 1: anyway that put does a long thread.
Speaker 2: By the way, I think that's just entirely consistent with humanity.
Speaker 2: You know, you have any particular assay class and you
Speaker 2: have ideologues who come in and there's no nuance, it's
Speaker 2: all lost. That's normal. You'll get it in You'll get it.
Speaker 2: To some extent, we're getting it in video stock. I
Speaker 2: just got an email the other day because I wrote
Speaker 2: an article about just highlighting how the valuations behind in
Speaker 2: video might not be quite asymmetric to the upside at
Speaker 2: eighty nine times peh, and it's more expensive than the
Speaker 2: entire German stock market, and I can give you many examples.
Speaker 2: So and I've got a lot of pushback, but that's
Speaker 2: because it's made the guy money. And of course it's
Speaker 2: made money. Sure, so you have a similar thing with
Speaker 2: respect to bitcoin. You have them with any acid glass.
Speaker 1: But the point of who cares how much bitcoin you
Speaker 1: have in thirty years from now? Is the time right
Speaker 1: now today. That's what matters with your kids or your family.
Speaker 2: And well, I think we've lost to some extent that
Speaker 2: cultural morality, if you.
Speaker 3: Will, sure I would agree, And and to some extent
Speaker 3: that's also one of the most valuable things is community
Speaker 3: what do you what would you pay to have a
Speaker 3: community that value and has a similar values to you
Speaker 3: where your kids can grow up in that community with
Speaker 3: those values A lot, I would give a lot of
Speaker 3: money a lot.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, and and yeah, so paying to have
Speaker 1: a good a good house, or your kids can grow
Speaker 1: up in the right neighborhood with the right community the
Speaker 1: right people. So yeah, So I think I think that's
Speaker 1: just a mind shift that people have to have to
Speaker 1: think about. I mean, look at how many people are
Speaker 1: at this conference right here. I mean those people paid
Speaker 1: money to come and try to expand their community, right,
Speaker 1: So some people get it, but it's interesting.
Speaker 2: We don't have I think even that goes in cycle
Speaker 2: the whole cultural shifts.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think right now, with the rays of the Internet,
Speaker 1: we're becoming more globally connected but more locally disconnected at
Speaker 1: the same time.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but even that ghost recycles, Even that ghost recycles.
Speaker 2: I mean I'm watching local communities forming, you know, which
Speaker 2: literally ten years ago we're not really forming. I've seen it,
Speaker 2: likeally where I'm living, I've seen it in parts of Mexico,
Speaker 2: Costa Rica. You know, You're getting like there's there's communities
Speaker 2: that are formed online and you and I are part
Speaker 2: of many of them, right, So you've got people that
Speaker 2: have seen the world in similar similar views because we're
Speaker 2: not geographically isolated to the extent we used to be.
Speaker 2: And as many people will look at that and go, well,
Speaker 2: that's a bad thing. We don't have the same sense
Speaker 2: of community. You know, you had maybe the church and
Speaker 2: the school, and you know that you were physically forced
Speaker 2: to largely some degree, both economically and as a consequence
Speaker 2: of technology, you were somewhat isolated. And so those communities
Speaker 2: then formed and had their own value systems, and you
Speaker 2: could say, I really like that one, and I can
Speaker 2: move to another one, so you had optionality with respect
Speaker 2: to different communities. We've now formed communities online where you'll
Speaker 2: see people have and they can be in these different jurisdictions,
Speaker 2: and many people literally that's where their community is online
Speaker 2: with other people, and those people can be all over
Speaker 2: the world. And I think to some degree, we're now
Speaker 2: moving into that physical locality again because people are finding
Speaker 2: it's no longer enough for me to just have this relationship,
Speaker 2: you know, via the internet. I actually need it on
Speaker 2: a physical basis because the pressures on my physical location
Speaker 2: have become too great. Why because this crime outs are now,
Speaker 2: or because I thought it was okay? But my kid
Speaker 2: just came back from school and he's a boy and
Speaker 2: I told him to wear a dress. Right. I met
Speaker 2: a guy in Dubai like that. Literally, you know, a
Speaker 2: very wealthy guy had his kids at a private school
Speaker 2: in the UK on a business trip, comes home and
Speaker 2: literally his son comes back from school with a dress on,
Speaker 2: and he's talking to what are you doing? What's going on?
Speaker 2: Oh no, it's like it's Pride week and everyone has
Speaker 2: to wear a dress. He's like, the hell they do?
Speaker 2: It's like a seven year old kid. Okay.
Speaker 1: So wow.
Speaker 2: So you know he moved. And there's there's many people
Speaker 2: I keep bumping into in various locations. Dubai is just
Speaker 2: one of them. Where they're going, Look, there are values
Speaker 2: that are in this location that are more important to
Speaker 2: me now because they're no longer in existence in the
Speaker 2: physical location that I was. And so you're seeing physical,
Speaker 2: physical movements, human capital movements, and that's going to to you,
Speaker 2: and I think it's going to accelerate. So the will
Speaker 2: is reshaping. Yeah, I agree, And so those all themselves
Speaker 2: present opportunities.
Speaker 1: Yeah, like, look at what's going on in El Salvador.
Speaker 1: I think that's a good test case. I mean, Bukeley
Speaker 1: has turned that country around in a one hundred and
Speaker 1: eight degree difference in just a couple of short years.
Speaker 1: And the amount of investment capital that's pouring into that
Speaker 1: country is just amazing. And he's even gone so far
Speaker 1: now as I think he's given out like one hundred citizenships.
Speaker 2: To scientists, doctors, philosophers.
Speaker 1: Exactly exactly right. And so now it's sort of like
Speaker 1: this competition. I love what he said. He talked about
Speaker 1: the immigration problem to the United States, and he was
Speaker 1: talking about that specific subject and he said, you know,
Speaker 1: he said, I think we need to look at ourselves.
Speaker 1: He said, we need to ask ourselves, why are people
Speaker 1: leaving our country? Wow, that's like words of a leader.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: And so but we're seeing this, I mean, we're seeing
Speaker 1: back to Dubai is attracting a lot of top tier talent,
Speaker 1: and we'll start to see where these enclaves are forming
Speaker 1: and people the Galt's goal, so to speak, right going
Speaker 1: to those areas in the United States. We certainly see
Speaker 1: it between the red and blue states, you know, for sure.
Speaker 2: I mean that's been it's been over our ofttimes. We've
Speaker 2: never seen that significant domestic shift in termally within the country.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, I mean when I was a kid, my
Speaker 1: my family moved from Texas to California. But that was
Speaker 1: because my dad was in construction and the oil market
Speaker 1: crashed in Texas in the eighties, so we moved to
Speaker 1: California where the construction industry was booming. So it's an
Speaker 1: economic move. But today, to your point, I think you're
Speaker 1: making it's people are moving for different reasons, non economic,
Speaker 1: more ideological, right there, community driven, if you will.
Speaker 2: Yeah, many factors, rightly, because they all they're all interconnected. Right,
Speaker 2: So when you have a value, when a society collapses,
Speaker 2: it's very difficult for crime not to go up. It's
Speaker 2: very difficult to run a business when crime is high
Speaker 2: because it's a cost of it's cost of oil capital.
Speaker 2: Part of your operating expenditure now has to be allocated
Speaker 2: towards security. Yeah, and it didn't be full and.
Speaker 1: Nobody wants to live in that environment. Yeah, So not
Speaker 1: even not even immigrants, the immigrants that come to the country,
Speaker 1: we're leaving an unsafe environment trying to come to a
Speaker 1: more safe environment. Like nobody wants that it's insanity. Anyway,
Speaker 1: we caverd a lot of ground. I think it's good.
Speaker 1: I think again before we start recorded as saying, I
Speaker 1: just love your viewpoint and your sort of your trend
Speaker 1: watching viewpoint, because that's sort of how I look as well, right,
Speaker 1: like what are the big trends? And I get it
Speaker 1: from surfing, right all right, I like to use surfing
Speaker 1: as an analogy. Right, So in surfing, we want to
Speaker 1: know we can typically see when waves are coming about
Speaker 1: two weeks out, and what we're looking for is a
Speaker 1: big storm. So typically in the summer, they're going to
Speaker 1: be coming from the South Pacific down in like Fiji
Speaker 1: Tahati area kind of thing. And we need the storm
Speaker 1: to get really big. Waves need to get fifty sixty feet,
Speaker 1: and waves get fifty sixty feet, we know it's going
Speaker 1: to send good waves. We see the storm forming, we're
Speaker 1: watching it. How big is it getting? Okay, this one's
Speaker 1: getting big. It's just in good waves. And then we
Speaker 1: can look at like how far did it spin out?
Speaker 1: Into which direction and which angle? So where are the
Speaker 1: waves going to go? Will it be Mexico, will be California,
Speaker 1: will be South America and so then we can trace
Speaker 1: those where it takes about two weeks to travel and
Speaker 1: then okay, there can be really good in Mexico. Let's
Speaker 1: let's go travel down there, right, and then we get
Speaker 1: in position and we wait for those waves to come right.
Speaker 1: And it doesn't always work out. Sometimes the wind is horrible,
Speaker 1: the tide is wrong, something like that.
Speaker 2: But then's your probability. But the probability probability.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think of investing sort of similar, right, like,
Speaker 1: let's look for where the storm is. Right. You broke
Speaker 1: one down yesterday about you know, under investment into commodities,
Speaker 1: but yeah, we're still going to need them. That's a storm, right.
Speaker 1: A policy change is creating a storm. How big is
Speaker 1: that storm getting? And then where will that money funnel to?
Speaker 1: How do I go get in position? And then just
Speaker 1: let that money funnel right in.
Speaker 2: So and part of its cycles unite cycles of history.
Speaker 2: You know, I've been fortunate to my money based on
Speaker 2: macro trends in play and just getting behind them. And
Speaker 2: then and they're not trying to be too smart. I
Speaker 2: think I think that's also risk as well. People try
Speaker 2: and get far too smart, far too clever, and trying
Speaker 2: time things, and they depend on you know, the old adage,
Speaker 2: never buy a beer market, never sellable market like you
Speaker 2: get in and just just just ride that trend and
Speaker 2: stomach the volatility that's going to inevitably be with it.
Speaker 2: And if you can do that, you can you literally
Speaker 2: can do it once in your life, and you'll be
Speaker 2: vastly ahead of most everybody else. And we have in
Speaker 2: front of us now some major major trends unfolding, and
Speaker 2: I think that's intellectually it's extraordinary stimulating. Thus far, it's
Speaker 2: been pretty profitable. So I don't want to I don't
Speaker 2: want to tempt the market god, so touch wood rather
Speaker 2: don't mention it. But you know, these are these are
Speaker 2: interesting times. And it's also in large part the risks
Speaker 2: that are in front of us, or risks that have
Speaker 2: not people not in some aspects they're not even aware
Speaker 2: of them. Ay, many aspects they are aware of them,
Speaker 2: but they don't quite understand the real risks that are
Speaker 2: in front of them, you know. I mean I mentioned
Speaker 2: yesterday with respect to your old risk parody trade, and
Speaker 2: the vast majority of people in there are in some
Speaker 2: variation of a sixty to forty equity bond split, and
Speaker 2: most of those equities are literally in the mag seven
Speaker 2: and then the bond portfolios are sitting in front of
Speaker 2: a five thousand yellows in the right cycles. It's just
Speaker 2: like you're whoa, yeah, yeah, no, so it's interesting times,
Speaker 2: all right.
Speaker 1: Cool, Well let's wrap it up from there. You said
Speaker 1: you write a newsletter, a weekly newsletter or email. Do
Speaker 1: you want to shout that out or tug out your funds?
Speaker 2: Yeah, just the there's a publication that we put out
Speaker 2: it's lands Up Going Out Overy sort of teen twelve
Speaker 2: days something like that. Whenever you get around it, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: it's it's funny. When I first started writing, it was
Speaker 2: maybe eighteen pages long because there's so much going on.
Speaker 2: Now on a macro basis, it's typically forty fifty pages
Speaker 2: well in any event. So that's that can be found
Speaker 2: at Capitalist Exploits dot at and that program is the
Speaker 2: Insider program. A lot of that is and came about
Speaker 2: as a consequence of leaders to collect our asset management
Speaker 2: clients from Gnorchy Capital, where we manage client money. So
Speaker 2: those are the two Capitalist Exploits and Gnorchy Capital.
Speaker 1: The man in the arena doing it yeah, all right,
Speaker 1: we'll wrapping up. Thanks,