1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:03,440 Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making 2 00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know 3 00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:08,680 Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news 4 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:10,800 Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is 5 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier, 6 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:17,919 Speaker 1: and more trustworthy mainstream by becoming a Breaking Points Premium 7 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money 8 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and 9 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:27,320 Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage 10 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most 11 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for? 12 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Hey, guys, 13 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: welcome to a special Wednesday primary election results breakdown edition 14 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 1: of Breaking Points. I know we're normally off on Wednesday, 15 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 1: but there was a lot going on in New York 16 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:50,160 Speaker 1: and Florida in particular, and we didn't want to wait 17 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:53,599 Speaker 1: till Thursday to break it down, so we invited our 18 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 1: great friend Dan Maren's at the Huffington Post. I guess 19 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: it's just huff Post now, right, I can I'm so old, 20 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: I can never get that on a yeah. You know though, 21 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 1: I will tell you that when I introduced myself to 22 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 1: people I'm trying to interview, I often say Healthington Posts 23 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 1: because if I just say health Posts fast, they think 24 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 1: it's the Washington Post. But it's not a good thing 25 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:18,399 Speaker 1: or a bad thing. Lends, right. I just don't like 26 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: to engage in false advertising. Gotcha, gotcha? All right? So 27 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 1: we've got Dan here to break down all of the 28 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:27,400 Speaker 1: races in Florida and New York. And there were some 29 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 1: really pretty stunning, shocking, surprising, interesting results maybe the most 30 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 1: interesting things. That New York actually seemed to do a 31 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 1: pretty decent job counting their ballots, so we have some 32 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:41,039 Speaker 1: results to talk about there. So that's exciting. But I 33 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:44,440 Speaker 1: wanted to start with the state of Florida. A couple 34 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: races here that I had my eye on, at least 35 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: the first one was kind of the top of the ticket, 36 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 1: the Democrats buying for the title of who gets to 37 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 1: take on Ronda Santis for the governor's race this fall. 38 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:00,840 Speaker 1: Talk us through that one, Dan, Yeah, you had two 39 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 1: main contenders, Charlie crist obviously a former governor who at 40 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 1: the time was a Republican turned Democrat, and Democratic House 41 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:12,239 Speaker 1: member from sort of the Tampa area, and Nikki Freed, 42 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 1: who is the only current statewide elected official in Florida 43 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 1: who is a Democrat. She's the Agriculture Commissioner. She won 44 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen on a platform of making it easier 45 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 1: to obtain medical marijuana licenses and protecting the state's water 46 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 1: resources more effectively. I think that that was viewed as 47 00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 1: a very smart, specific way of connecting her post with 48 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:45,800 Speaker 1: issues that Floridians care about, and I think that for 49 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:48,680 Speaker 1: whatever reason, she decided there was nowhere to go from there. 50 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 1: But I think given Chris name recognition, but also the 51 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: fact that I think Freed was trying to make an 52 00:02:56,040 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: argument that she was a little bit more or progressive, 53 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 1: a little bit more credible, she started engaging in certainly 54 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 1: some gimmicks on social media in terms of calling out 55 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 1: Rond de Santis, but really being a little bit too online, 56 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 1: never seeming to quite develop a deeper following beyond sort 57 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,239 Speaker 1: of a narrow subset of people. Chris just has a 58 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 1: higher name recognition, and again in a place like Florida, 59 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 1: given the direction of the state, given the fact that 60 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 1: back in back in twenty eighteen, when Ron DeSantis won 61 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: that sort of pol defying victory over Andrew Gillum. There 62 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 1: was a sense at that time that the state could 63 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 1: be moving more back in a democratic direction, that this 64 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: was very marginal, that was more like a democratic waveyar 65 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 1: four years later, obviously, I think we see that Ron 66 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: de Santis is very much entrenched. I don't think we 67 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 1: can expect. Let me ask you about that. Do Democrats 68 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 1: think they have any shots to defeat him? I did 69 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 1: see a one loan poll that showed that Demingsy's Democratic 70 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 1: nominee for Senate ahead, excuse me a Marco Rubio probably 71 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 1: an outlier. I would not that on Democrats being able 72 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: to pick up that Senate seat, but a lot of 73 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:17,679 Speaker 1: people got excited about that. Do they have any hope 74 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:20,039 Speaker 1: that they could beat DeSantis in the governor's race. It 75 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 1: seems like they're very concerned about him, of course, potentially 76 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 1: running for president and being relatively formidable opponents, so I'm 77 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: sure they would love the chance to knock him out. 78 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 1: Right here and now, I've not seen any indication that 79 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 1: the National Democratic Party is prepared to spend money to 80 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 1: either oust Ron DeSantis or Marco Rubio, because I think 81 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 1: they don't think it's a good bet, and they have 82 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:51,159 Speaker 1: other states on the map that are more gettable, and 83 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:55,359 Speaker 1: even then are kind of reaches like Wisconsin. I think 84 00:04:56,640 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 1: Georgia is an optimistic hold for them. In Pennsylvania is 85 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:06,360 Speaker 1: an optimistic flip, the playing defense in Nevada, Arizona, New Hampshire, 86 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 1: a number of other places. I think bal Demings is 87 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: an incredibly strong candidate. You see her triangulating in a 88 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:17,599 Speaker 1: uniquely Floridian way, sort of calling Marco Rubio soft on 89 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:24,479 Speaker 1: Hugo Chavez or Nicholas Maduro. Sorry, you know, I would 90 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:28,839 Speaker 1: think that that has some play there. But yeah, look, 91 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 1: DeSantis is very firmly entrenched at this point. I think 92 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: that he's a polarizing figure. I think that there's you know, 93 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 1: thirty five to forty percent of the population that dislikes him. 94 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:42,919 Speaker 1: But I think overall, his approach to COVID and some 95 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:46,840 Speaker 1: of these other issues has been popular. The state's economy 96 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 1: doing well, people moving in from other states well. In 97 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 1: a midterm election, the fact that you energize your side 98 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 1: matters a lot. And you know, I haven't dug too 99 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 1: far into these results, but I know you made a 100 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 1: bunch of endorsements in school board races that were very 101 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 1: successful last night for the right, So it seems like 102 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 1: he has a lot of poll with the base there 103 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 1: for sure. I want to move on to another Florair race, 104 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 1: which is really something Laura Lumer, who is this sort 105 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:20,480 Speaker 1: of you know, truly far right figure who has openly 106 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:24,039 Speaker 1: said she's good with the white ethno state that she 107 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:29,000 Speaker 1: supports that idea and calls herself a proud Islamophobe. I mean, 108 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:32,800 Speaker 1: she really is like a far right extremist type of character. 109 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 1: Came very close to austing an incumbent Republican and one 110 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:41,320 Speaker 1: the villages that you know, a large sort of like 111 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 1: senior community which polls, has a lot of political weight 112 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 1: in Florida politics, but appears to have clearly lost, but 113 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 1: went ahead and gave this whole speech saying no, really 114 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 1: I won, and I'm refusing to concede and guess what 115 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 1: the vote was rigged. Yeah, it's a really peculiar thing 116 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 1: when it's so transparently selective. How how when these people 117 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:09,160 Speaker 1: call election fraud? Obviously I talked about it. In Western 118 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: Michigan there was this guy John Gibbs, who is sort 119 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: of an election denier out there who the d triple 120 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 1: c that the House Democratic campaign arm elevated because they 121 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 1: prefer to run against him. He didn't seem to dispute 122 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:27,120 Speaker 1: his own victory when when he won. It only seems 123 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 1: to be when they're on the other side of the 124 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 1: coin that they play this. And I guess there is 125 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 1: such a distrust of institutions that this can at least 126 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 1: help their personal brand, help them make money. Maybe, but 127 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 1: I don't think this is going anywhere She's It is 128 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: very interesting these are that that she was able to 129 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 1: bring it this close against a guy named Daniel Webster, 130 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:56,559 Speaker 1: sort of a run of the mill, dim it dozen 131 00:07:56,680 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 1: but deeply conservative Central Florida Republican. It does say something. 132 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 1: I think it also probably says something about as you 133 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: were talking about energizing the base in a midterm year, 134 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 1: but also especially in a primary election, I mean that 135 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 1: there this is probably even a smaller universe of the 136 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 1: total Republican and or conservative collectorate in the Yeah, so 137 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 1: the most diehard came out and many of them voted 138 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 1: for Laura Lumore. There was a little bit of a 139 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 1: left wing or progressive or Bernie Sanders victory in one 140 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 1: of these primaries as well, and Maxwell Frost twenty five 141 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:37,720 Speaker 1: years old, I understand. I think you'd be the first 142 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 1: zoomer in Congress break that one down for us Dan. Yeah. 143 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 1: So that's Florida's tenth congressional district. That's also a central 144 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 1: Florida seat sort of in and arounds Orlando. That's val 145 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 1: Deming's the seat that she's vacating in order to for Senate. 146 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 1: And it initially looked like it was going to be 147 00:08:56,320 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 1: another one of these big, expensive blowout content tests because 148 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 1: Maxwell Frost, who is an anti gun violence activist, was 149 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 1: up against a sitting state senator, Randolph Bracy, and Randall 150 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 1: Bracy got the backing of a pro Israel group. That 151 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: Democratic majority for Israel looked like it could be stepping 152 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: up to be shaping up to be sort of one 153 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:23,239 Speaker 1: of these expensive proxy contests. But Froust sort of established 154 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:28,839 Speaker 1: himself by building a coalition beyond just the activist left. 155 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 1: He had the support of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, He 156 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:35,560 Speaker 1: had the support of a number of influential labor unions 157 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:39,080 Speaker 1: and environmental groups, and he also had the support of 158 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:42,440 Speaker 1: Protect Our Future, which is a super pac funded by 159 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 1: cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman freed that has the professed policy 160 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 1: goal of investing in pandemic preparedness. That's sort of their 161 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 1: thing that they will quote unquote back candidates who support 162 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 1: funding for greater research and preparedness for the next pandemic. 163 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 1: And actually, if you do look at their endorsements, it's 164 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 1: not just centrist candidates. There are a number of progressives. 165 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 1: There was Jasmine Crockett in the Dallas area and Texas, 166 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 1: for example, and they spent close to a million dollars 167 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 1: on his behalf. So if you're an outside spender looking 168 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 1: at that and thinking is this even competitive, you might 169 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 1: want to stay out. And that's actually what the pro 170 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 1: Israel groups did. So he did have this this base 171 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:34,319 Speaker 1: of progressive support. He had the support of Bernie and 172 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren of the Congressional Progressive Caucus pack, but also 173 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 1: the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, which spent like a quarter million 174 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 1: on him, and this sort of pandemic preparedness group. Moral 175 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:51,320 Speaker 1: of the story is, if you're capable of broadening that 176 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:57,559 Speaker 1: coalition without compromising your values, that is certainly something to consider. 177 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:01,440 Speaker 1: But he is under fire actually from a local pro 178 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:06,959 Speaker 1: Palestinian group from abandoning some of his sort of policy 179 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 1: positions on that. To be honest with you, I haven't 180 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: borrowed into the details on that, but I think one 181 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:16,560 Speaker 1: of the dynamics here is if you're running and trying 182 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:19,840 Speaker 1: to build that coalition, that sort of bigger tent coalition, 183 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:24,600 Speaker 1: it's not always that you will take a stance that 184 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 1: is further right or what have you, so much as 185 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:30,960 Speaker 1: sometimes you might not be the person sticking your neck 186 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:36,559 Speaker 1: out on that specific issue. Right Like Kasar in Austin, 187 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:39,559 Speaker 1: Texas who sort of said I'm not pro BDS. He 188 00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:43,679 Speaker 1: kind of watered down his stance on He basically made 189 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 1: it sound like he doesn't really want a condition put 190 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 1: impost tougher conditions on USA to Israel, just sort of 191 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 1: saying like, Hey, nothing to see here, move along. And 192 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 1: that I think is the dynamic that I'm going to 193 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:59,600 Speaker 1: be really interested in on this issue of cryptocurrency regulation, 194 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 1: which is that even if protect our future, their outright 195 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 1: policy agenda is not about cryptocurrency and it is about 196 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 1: pandemic preparedness. And you have these guys like Bankman Freed, 197 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:17,199 Speaker 1: who are by all appearances true believing, quote effective altruists, right, 198 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 1: who believe that you have to do these sort of 199 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,160 Speaker 1: quantitative calculations to determine how to maximize good in the 200 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 1: world and all that sort of stuff. Bankment Freed is 201 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:30,599 Speaker 1: still sort of a believing investor in cryptocurrency, and he 202 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:37,080 Speaker 1: supports another super pac called Web three that is more 203 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 1: explicit in wanting lighter regulation. We know what this industry 204 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 1: as a whole wants from Congress, which is to be 205 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 1: treated more like a derivative which has a lighter regulatory touch. 206 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 1: Then let's say a stock or a bond or something 207 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 1: of that nature that would be regulated by the SEC. 208 00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:59,679 Speaker 1: And I think it's just hard for me to believe 209 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 1: that a progressive who comes in on that under that, 210 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 1: you know, with the backing one of these groups, is 211 00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 1: going to sort of say to themselves, you know what 212 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:09,400 Speaker 1: I'm going to do. I want to be the next 213 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren, right, and really take them on. Yeah, if 214 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:15,080 Speaker 1: you benefited from a million dollars in your primary from 215 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 1: a cryptocurrency billionaire and he helped you get across the 216 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 1: finish line, I'm going to be skeptical that when push 217 00:13:21,360 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 1: comes to shove, you're not going to ultimately vote the 218 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 1: way that they want you to vote even if potentially 219 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 1: you're not, you know, the one really driving the driving 220 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 1: the terrain of saying we got to deregulate in the 221 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: crypto space, and we got to make sure they want 222 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: it to be lightly regulated, but they still want to 223 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 1: benefit from like the sort of safety net, the banking 224 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 1: safety net that we have set up for established institutions. 225 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:45,560 Speaker 1: So yeah, that is an interesting dynamic that is definitely 226 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:50,320 Speaker 1: worth keeping an eye on as well. I want to 227 00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:54,240 Speaker 1: move to New York. So a bunch of interesting races here. 228 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:58,800 Speaker 1: Big headline for Democrats is there was a special election 229 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 1: in upstate New York, really seen as a belt weather race, 230 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 1: and analysts have been looking towards this one for months 231 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 1: down because it's in a district Biden won by a 232 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:11,199 Speaker 1: point and a half. It is as swingy of a 233 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 1: district as you can get. It's won sometimes by Republicans, 234 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 1: sometimes by Democrats, true barometer of sort of the sentiment 235 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 1: of the voting public. And you had two candidates, the 236 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:25,600 Speaker 1: Republican and the Democrat Molinaris, the Republican Ryan is the Democrat, 237 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 1: who are both sort of well established politicians, well known 238 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 1: in the region. So fairly fair fight between them. And 239 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 1: the Republican was running almost explicitly exclusively on a message 240 00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 1: about inflation in the economy, Democrat leaning very hard into 241 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:47,440 Speaker 1: the new post row abortion messaging. So Dan, what came 242 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 1: out of this very closely watched race. Yeah, I mean, 243 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 1: I think this race is interesting on a number of 244 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 1: different levels. But one thing I did points out in 245 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 1: my reporting is that Pat Ryan, the Democrat, we'll only 246 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 1: be serving there for four months. He's filling a vacancy 247 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 1: created by Antonio del Gada, who was picked to replace 248 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 1: a New York Lieutenant governor who got indicted. And so 249 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 1: Pat Ryan is going to be finishing out that term 250 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 1: and then running in a different district in November. Because 251 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 1: his home was drawn into those new boundaries. Monaro is 252 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 1: going to be running in that district once again, So 253 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:28,480 Speaker 1: that should be an interesting dynamic. This is not one 254 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 1: where in terms of hard numbers, the math of the 255 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 1: House was affected, but it gives Democrats inability to basically say, look, 256 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:40,360 Speaker 1: not only did you guys try to make this a 257 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 1: referendum on the economy and we tried to make it 258 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 1: a referendum on abortion, but you actually poured in more 259 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 1: money than we did. I mean, I didn't have the 260 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 1: exact post election figures because some of this stuff just 261 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:57,480 Speaker 1: gets sorted out in the end run there, but the 262 00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 1: National Republican Campaign Committee spent more than a million dollars 263 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:07,240 Speaker 1: propping up moll and Arrow, and the Congressional Leadership Fund, 264 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 1: which is of course the Republican House. Republican super pac 265 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 1: spent another six hundred and fifty thousand dollars at last glance, 266 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 1: and of course Molnar him self raised a million and 267 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 1: a half, though that was less than the two million 268 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 1: Ryan raised the d trip. All they would say was 269 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 1: that they made a six figure by which usually means, 270 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 1: you know, one hundred or two hundred, and brot Vet 271 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 1: spent another five hundred grand for him. So we're really 272 00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 1: looking at something like a two to one Republican advantage 273 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 1: in the outside spending at the very least. So there's 274 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 1: no question that they felt that this had high stakes, 275 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 1: the Republicans, and I think they felt that because after Kansas, 276 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 1: after a relatively narrow win in a southern Minnesota special election, 277 00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:00,120 Speaker 1: that that and a seat that Trump carried heavily, so 278 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:03,440 Speaker 1: one that has been a little bit closer in congressional races, 279 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,960 Speaker 1: that there's this narrative developing that the great Red Wave 280 00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 1: might have crested a little too early, that Democrats are 281 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 1: offsetting that red wave with this excitement and appeal to 282 00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 1: independence that the threat to abortion rights has created. And 283 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:23,480 Speaker 1: though I was not on the ground during early voting 284 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:26,919 Speaker 1: and election day, what I can say is I actually 285 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:30,240 Speaker 1: think Democrats have a real case here that abortion rights 286 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 1: was an issue, was an issue in exciting the base 287 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 1: and potentially even in getting independence over to their side. 288 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:42,640 Speaker 1: Because Mark mulnaro is not actually a far right guy, 289 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 1: I mean period, but especially on abortion rights. He said 290 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 1: that it's up to the states. He would not support 291 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 1: any kind of federal restrictions, at least that's what he 292 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:57,680 Speaker 1: has said. He has said that on a personal level 293 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 1: he supports exceptions for incest rape in the life of 294 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 1: the mother, and that he sort of believes that it 295 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 1: should be limited but in a reasonable way, somewhere in 296 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 1: the middle. But that said, it's just up to the states. 297 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:16,440 Speaker 1: And Pat Ryan was still able to say, still effectively 298 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:19,399 Speaker 1: able to polarize the race and say, this guy has 299 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 1: an R next to his name, and at the end 300 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:26,160 Speaker 1: of the day, in the abortion rights debate, that's all 301 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: that matters because this is the party that has said 302 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:31,879 Speaker 1: that they're against abortion rights, and we're the party that 303 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:35,199 Speaker 1: says we're for it. There's another dynamic here, which is 304 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 1: that since the pandemic, a lot of especially wealthier residents 305 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:44,399 Speaker 1: of New York City have moved out to the Hudson 306 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:49,479 Speaker 1: Valley two hours sometimes three hours north. It's very beautiful region. 307 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 1: Homes and either in the mountains and the Catskills or 308 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 1: in the valley itself. And I have to think that 309 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:01,880 Speaker 1: that has had an impact on the electorate up there. 310 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:10,119 Speaker 1: And it sounds like Woodstock, Kingston, rhine Beck, Hudson, New York, Kinderhook. 311 00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:14,359 Speaker 1: These are places where there has been an influx of 312 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 1: people from at least closer to the New York City 313 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:21,160 Speaker 1: metropolitan area. We've got people who are able to work 314 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 1: from home now, so they have more flexibility, they can 315 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,200 Speaker 1: move on a little further, a little bout quality of life, 316 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:30,960 Speaker 1: maybe cheaper housing, but probably still very expensive. So I 317 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 1: mean that makes a lot of sense. And the other 318 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,159 Speaker 1: thing here you were pointing to that there have been 319 00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:38,080 Speaker 1: a few special elections now in addition to that Kansas 320 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 1: ballot initiative that obviously swung hard for Democrats or for 321 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 1: the pro choice position, I should say, because I think 322 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 1: there were some significant number minority of Republicans who voted 323 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,840 Speaker 1: for the pro choice position there as well. But you 324 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:54,399 Speaker 1: had nebraska One Postobs that was a Trump plus eleven 325 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:57,360 Speaker 1: district that the Republicans only one by five. You had 326 00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:00,640 Speaker 1: Minnesota's first district that was a Trump plus ten district 327 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:04,400 Speaker 1: and Republicans only one by four, so their margins significantly diminished. 328 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 1: You had this one, which was a Biden plus one 329 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:09,440 Speaker 1: point five. It looks like Pat Ryan is going to 330 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,160 Speaker 1: exceed that just by a little bit, not a whole lot, 331 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 1: but outperform a little bit there. And then there was 332 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 1: actually another special election yesterday in a much redder part 333 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 1: of the state that Trump won by eleven and the 334 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:23,439 Speaker 1: Republican only won by seven. So you have kind of 335 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 1: a consistent trend. And then the other thing that was 336 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 1: very interesting to me, Dan is we're used to pollsters 337 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 1: underestimating the Republican side of the ledgers, so Republicans sort 338 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 1: of outperforming where the polls are. We've now had a 339 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 1: couple instances where actually Democrats have been outperforming what the 340 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 1: polls are predicting. And this was a really clear example 341 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,960 Speaker 1: of that this special election. So I'm looking at a 342 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:51,000 Speaker 1: tweet from Polling USA, and the polls leading up to 343 00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 1: this special election. There was Trident Polling had Malinaro plus ten, 344 00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 1: Data for Progress, which is actually progressive Polster Malinaro plus eight, 345 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:04,440 Speaker 1: PPP Malnaro plus three, d Triple C Targeting Malnaro plus three. 346 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,159 Speaker 1: And then ultimately, so every single poll leading up to 347 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:10,720 Speaker 1: this election had the Republican winning, and then the Democrat 348 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 1: ends up winning, and you know, it was fairly close, 349 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:15,639 Speaker 1: but it wasn't so close that it's like going to 350 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,160 Speaker 1: a recount and that the result is ultimately in doubt here. 351 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 1: So that's an interesting dynamic as well. Yeah, it certainly is, 352 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 1: and I think it speaks to this question of turnout. 353 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 1: I mean I looked at the turnout in this New 354 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:32,120 Speaker 1: York nineteenth special election. I mean it looked like something 355 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 1: like one hundred and thirty or one hundred and forty 356 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 1: thousand people showed up to vote in a late August 357 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 1: special election. I mean, I don't think that there were 358 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 1: really competitive primaries at the top of the ballot that 359 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,120 Speaker 1: those same people might have been showing up to vote in. Otherwise, 360 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:52,240 Speaker 1: I think that they managed to get the message out 361 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:56,680 Speaker 1: pretty effectively. And in terms of the polling, the only 362 00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:58,879 Speaker 1: caveat I have to offer on that is that I 363 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 1: do know I was familiar with like one or two 364 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:05,040 Speaker 1: of those polling figures. Yeah, it does sort of look 365 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 1: like it tightened over time, and so I wonder if 366 00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:13,399 Speaker 1: the trend line itself was accurate. I mean the although 367 00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 1: I mean that data for Progress one came out literally 368 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 1: on election day is when I saw that, and it 369 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 1: had Elenoro plus eight. But well, let's turn to some 370 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:26,679 Speaker 1: of the city districts. There was a lot of devon 371 00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:30,439 Speaker 1: dem violence in these primaries because you had, you know, 372 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 1: the whole map is being redrawn, so you had incumbents 373 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:36,560 Speaker 1: versus incumbents. You had the Sean Patrick Maloney, the head 374 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:40,200 Speaker 1: of the d Triple C, the Democratic Campaign Congressional Committee, 375 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 1: sort of big footing another incumbent and pushing him out 376 00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:46,679 Speaker 1: of his district. Let's start with one that was I 377 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,639 Speaker 1: was actually quite shocked at how lopsided the result was 378 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,919 Speaker 1: Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler, and also a third candidate 379 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 1: named Saraj Patel who has challenged Carolyn Maloney in the past. 380 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,919 Speaker 1: They were drawn together into this district that put the 381 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,240 Speaker 1: Upper east Side and the Upper west Side in one 382 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 1: district together. And they're both longtime incumbents, you know, both 383 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 1: like have been there a long time, and both you know, 384 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,200 Speaker 1: colleagues for years and years, and I think they both 385 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 1: chair committees, right, So they're you know, relatively senior in 386 00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:19,159 Speaker 1: terms of Democratic Party leadership. And they were pitted against 387 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:23,879 Speaker 1: each other in this primary, Nadler just dominated. I mean, 388 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,640 Speaker 1: it ended up not being close at all. What did 389 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 1: you think of that one, Dan, It was pretty interesting. 390 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,880 Speaker 1: I spoke to Nadler and Patel yesterday. The Maloney didn't 391 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 1: make herself available to the press, and I got a 392 00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:38,000 Speaker 1: chance to talk to some voters as well. When you 393 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:42,160 Speaker 1: look at the dynamics of the race and who Nadler 394 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 1: is and who Maloney is, I think Nadler just has 395 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:49,239 Speaker 1: a very very clear and strong brand as sort of 396 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 1: this loyally liberal He's the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. 397 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:58,359 Speaker 1: Much like in the New York's tenth Congressional district just 398 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,280 Speaker 1: below it, where the way was a guy who was 399 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:05,200 Speaker 1: seen as sort of a Democratic Party hero Visa v. Trump. 400 00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:10,879 Speaker 1: Jerry Nadler obviously was heavily involved in investigations against Trump 401 00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:15,440 Speaker 1: in sort of the impeachment process. I also think that 402 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,480 Speaker 1: the Upper West Side and generally the West side of 403 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 1: Manhattan tends to be has a higher voting rate than 404 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 1: the Upper east Side and tends to be extremely politically engaged. 405 00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,400 Speaker 1: It's a bit more left leaning. Though. The Upper east 406 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 1: Side used to be sort of a moderate Republican ridout. 407 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:38,160 Speaker 1: They called it sort of the silk Stocking district. Yeah, 408 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 1: but now it's sort of just regular rank and file Democrats, 409 00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:46,920 Speaker 1: but it leans just a bit more affluent, a bit 410 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,479 Speaker 1: more traditional, a bit more conservative. I know, the Breaking 411 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:52,880 Speaker 1: Points producer James Lynch is from there. You know, I'm 412 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:57,280 Speaker 1: sure he could confirm what I'm saying, But so I 413 00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 1: think that's one dynamic. Another dynamic is that she had 414 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:05,399 Speaker 1: basically already shown that she just wasn't great at running 415 00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:09,000 Speaker 1: a campaign, because Pattell had run against her twice before, 416 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,639 Speaker 1: and he actually, in a crowded field, held her to 417 00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,639 Speaker 1: just a four point win. Last time. He had hammered 418 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 1: her for her sort of history of vaccine skepticism. She 419 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:25,359 Speaker 1: was somebody who had amplified sort of saying I'm having 420 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,960 Speaker 1: a just asking questions approach to the link between childhood 421 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 1: vaccines and autism. She used her position in hearings to 422 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,800 Speaker 1: sort of give a platform to some of these folks. 423 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 1: Patel had really initiated that and put that on the 424 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:44,199 Speaker 1: map last cycle as open Vaccine was coming online, and 425 00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:47,240 Speaker 1: then Nadler really took it to a new height by 426 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:50,280 Speaker 1: red boxing it and sort of a red box obviously 427 00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 1: being the way that candidates signaled to super PACs without 428 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,439 Speaker 1: directly communicating with them, saying, voters need to know that 429 00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 1: Carolyn Maloney is a vaccine skeptic and a super pac 430 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,960 Speaker 1: did come in and spent a couple hundred grands lasting 431 00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:07,280 Speaker 1: that out there, and then I think I think Nadler's 432 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 1: selling point was I'm a good liberal. I opposed the 433 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:14,119 Speaker 1: Iraq war. She supported it. I supported the Iran nuclear 434 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:17,840 Speaker 1: deal even though I'm Jewish and she's not. She opposed it, 435 00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:22,760 Speaker 1: and and and and and essentially saying that that he, 436 00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:24,879 Speaker 1: you know, he wanted to continue the progress that he 437 00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 1: had made, that that he's this sort of fierce loyally 438 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,560 Speaker 1: kind of opponent. If you look at her messaging, it 439 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 1: was all, you can't send a man to do a 440 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:36,600 Speaker 1: woman's job. Say no, to the old boys Club, and 441 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,520 Speaker 1: in the very end it was that it was really nasty. 442 00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 1: It was like that Natler senile. Now, he did have 443 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 1: some sort of infirm moments having been around Carolyn Maloney, 444 00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,920 Speaker 1: I'm not sure she's really a position to make this case. 445 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,320 Speaker 1: Maybe someone could, but I'm not sure she's the one 446 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,399 Speaker 1: that's right. Somebody actually said to me it's it's the 447 00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,239 Speaker 1: pot calling the kettle black there. So, yeah, I mean 448 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,920 Speaker 1: these are both thirty year veterans of Congress in their 449 00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 1: mid seventies. I do think this does raise again once 450 00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 1: again issues of Democratic Party gerontocracy. Yeah, but ultimately it 451 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:14,080 Speaker 1: was an interesting one. And though Jerry Nadler is not 452 00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:17,480 Speaker 1: sort of a hardcore left guy, I think that the 453 00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,399 Speaker 1: sort of institutional left had rallied around him, seeing him 454 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:26,560 Speaker 1: as the best alternative, the better choice. Okay, so let's 455 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,400 Speaker 1: talk about the one that you referenced that included parts 456 00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:33,680 Speaker 1: of Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn, which was this relatively wide 457 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:38,200 Speaker 1: open primary. You have this guy named Dan Goldman. He's wealthy, 458 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,199 Speaker 1: heir to the Levi Strauss fortune. Will be one of 459 00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,960 Speaker 1: the wealthiest members of Congress, very sort of like you know, 460 00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:50,199 Speaker 1: standard issue resistance liberal type of Democrat came to prominence 461 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,359 Speaker 1: because he was a lawyer on the first Trump impeachment 462 00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 1: and won the backing kind of controversially of the New 463 00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:00,679 Speaker 1: York Times because he's close with the Sulzburg and they 464 00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:03,560 Speaker 1: didn't disclose that they had a conflict of interest, so 465 00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:07,120 Speaker 1: they put their they put their finger on the scale 466 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 1: heavily in favor of Dan Goldman. And then you had 467 00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:16,040 Speaker 1: a number of, you know, more progressive candidates also vying 468 00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:20,919 Speaker 1: for this seat, including notably Mandere Jones, who was a 469 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 1: Squad member who was kind of bigfooted and pushed out 470 00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:28,440 Speaker 1: of his district by Jean Patrick Maloney. But that squatted 471 00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:31,160 Speaker 1: we'll say squad adjacent. Yeah, I mean, he's ended up being, 472 00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 1: in my view, rather even more disappointing than I've been 473 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,239 Speaker 1: in some of the other Squad members. And part of 474 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:40,920 Speaker 1: why he decided to run in this district is because, 475 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,360 Speaker 1: you know, he thought it would be sort of easier 476 00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:45,760 Speaker 1: in the general election to win, and he didn't really 477 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,480 Speaker 1: want to go up against Jean Patrick Maloney, which could 478 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,040 Speaker 1: have been a more interesting primary, so he jumps into 479 00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:54,200 Speaker 1: this race. There was another progressive candidate, Carlina Rivera. Is 480 00:28:54,240 --> 00:29:00,200 Speaker 1: her name correct? So ultimately, you leen knew who who 481 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:05,880 Speaker 1: represents a part of this Lower Manhattan district already in 482 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:09,560 Speaker 1: the state legislature. The race has not been called to 483 00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,200 Speaker 1: my knowledge, right, it's still very very close. Actually, the 484 00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:16,560 Speaker 1: Associated Press did call it it, okay, so, but yeah, 485 00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:20,720 Speaker 1: so ended up being very close, which you know, calls 486 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,280 Speaker 1: into question if Monday Jones had run for a differency, 487 00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:27,000 Speaker 1: if the left had been able to consolidate behind a 488 00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,960 Speaker 1: single candidate, what Dan Goldman was able to get twenty 489 00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 1: some percent of the vote or something like that in 490 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,920 Speaker 1: this district. It seems like there was an opportunity here 491 00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:38,880 Speaker 1: for a more left candidate that didn't come together thanks 492 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:40,680 Speaker 1: to the New York Times and also thanks to the 493 00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:44,000 Speaker 1: inability of the left to consolidate around one candidate. Yeah, 494 00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:46,960 Speaker 1: we saw this most prominently in last year's New York 495 00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:52,320 Speaker 1: City mayor's race, where there were essentially three contenders of 496 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:57,600 Speaker 1: one left leaning flavor or another who took a long 497 00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 1: time to consolidate. I think we saw similar effect though 498 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:05,560 Speaker 1: in the end that when the progressive segment of the 499 00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:09,000 Speaker 1: electorate's sort of got a very clear message in the 500 00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:12,200 Speaker 1: final days that this is the person you need to 501 00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,160 Speaker 1: turn to. In that case it was male Wiley. In 502 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:18,920 Speaker 1: this case it's u Leen knew there was some consolidation effect, 503 00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 1: but the mere fact that there were so many candidates 504 00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:25,080 Speaker 1: sort of claim laying claim to that lane in one 505 00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:30,600 Speaker 1: form or another is absolutely an indictment of the progressive 506 00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,800 Speaker 1: ecosystem in New York City, which, as we'll talk about later, 507 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:37,160 Speaker 1: has which you would considerably in just four or five 508 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:41,320 Speaker 1: years time, but it is still really not quite capable 509 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,480 Speaker 1: of sort of laying down the lawn and reading reading 510 00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,680 Speaker 1: the Riot Act to individual candidates. This was obviously a 511 00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:52,440 Speaker 1: very difficult circumstance. The State Legislature Democrats map was thrown 512 00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,200 Speaker 1: out in late April. There were indicating there was like 513 00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:58,240 Speaker 1: sort of an initial indication of what the new court 514 00:30:58,320 --> 00:30:59,960 Speaker 1: ordered map would look like in mid May, and then 515 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,960 Speaker 1: finally in late May, about a week after that that 516 00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:05,640 Speaker 1: there was sort of the final maps. And in that 517 00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:09,560 Speaker 1: period just of a few days between when there was 518 00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:11,520 Speaker 1: sort of a draft leaked and when the final maps 519 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:15,480 Speaker 1: were released, there was a ton of behind the scenes jockeying, 520 00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,440 Speaker 1: especially on the part of Mondere Jones, who was figuring 521 00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,160 Speaker 1: out not just whether he wanted to run against Sean Patrick, 522 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:26,320 Speaker 1: Maloney whose home was drawn into Monde's district, and Mondere's 523 00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:29,680 Speaker 1: home was drawn into Jamal Bowman's district. So this is 524 00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:33,000 Speaker 1: in terms of residency. These things are complicated. Though Monde 525 00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 1: did represent a much larger share of the district. It's 526 00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,440 Speaker 1: been reported at this point that Monde looked at that 527 00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,400 Speaker 1: and said this is going to be a general election 528 00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:48,840 Speaker 1: toss up. Biden only carried the new district by about 529 00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:52,800 Speaker 1: by just over ten points. He's not a sort of 530 00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:56,800 Speaker 1: he wasn't comporting himself like a frontline member. He was 531 00:31:56,880 --> 00:32:00,920 Speaker 1: more of a I mean ready to run a safe 532 00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:04,280 Speaker 1: blue seat, right attic? Is that though, that you're afraid 533 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:08,000 Speaker 1: of a Biden plus ten district? Sorry? But and this 534 00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:11,080 Speaker 1: was I mean this was Sean Patrick Maloney too. The 535 00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:13,680 Speaker 1: district that would have been logical for him to run in, 536 00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:17,760 Speaker 1: which contained more of his current district, was what Biden 537 00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,520 Speaker 1: plus seven And he's like, oh, this is too hard 538 00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,160 Speaker 1: for me. I got to run in the Biden plus 539 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:26,400 Speaker 1: ten district. Yeah, this is the guy who's supposed to 540 00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,480 Speaker 1: be in charge of, you know, helping the Democrats keep 541 00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:31,880 Speaker 1: the House and he's not even confident enough to win 542 00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:34,240 Speaker 1: in a Biden plus six or seven district himself. He's 543 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 1: got to go and jump into the Biden plus ten district. Yeah, 544 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:42,440 Speaker 1: very very bizarre. And certainly in that brief one week 545 00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 1: period where there was this jostling, he took a ton 546 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:49,120 Speaker 1: of heat for that. I mean Richie Torres from the 547 00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:53,320 Speaker 1: Bronx again, who is you know, maybe a mainstream liberal 548 00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:58,120 Speaker 1: and but is not does not really have a relationship 549 00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:02,080 Speaker 1: with the organized left, was hitting him very hard because 550 00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,680 Speaker 1: Richie Torres and Monde are the first two openly gay 551 00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:08,960 Speaker 1: black members, and Maloney is gay, but he's white and 552 00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:13,840 Speaker 1: wealthy and moderate. It's hard to think, you know, what 553 00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:17,719 Speaker 1: a counterfactual would look like where Monde Jones stays in 554 00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:21,760 Speaker 1: this sort of prosecutes this kind of case against Maloney, 555 00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:26,240 Speaker 1: that he's put himself above the party. He's, uh, he's 556 00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:31,040 Speaker 1: nudged out sort of a path breaking black progressive. And 557 00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:36,080 Speaker 1: does Maloney even you know, say to that, Eh, actually, 558 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,000 Speaker 1: I'll go to New York eighteenth, you know, the one 559 00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:40,840 Speaker 1: that I'm currently Only that's a possibility. We'll never be 560 00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:44,080 Speaker 1: able to know. I think certainly Monder's legacy on the 561 00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:48,920 Speaker 1: left would be would be less tarnished. Uh, and and 562 00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:52,800 Speaker 1: and and uh, there would be he he would at 563 00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:55,920 Speaker 1: least have everybody rally to his side against s Patrick's 564 00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,760 Speaker 1: maloney and then as a frontliner. I mean, look, Katie 565 00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:02,120 Speaker 1: Porter manages to do it. I mean, she walks a 566 00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:05,280 Speaker 1: more careful line out in Orange County, California, but it 567 00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:10,000 Speaker 1: is not absolutely unheard of. Kandyr Jones hasn't been, I mean, 568 00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,359 Speaker 1: to my chagrin, and he hasn't been the real like 569 00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:14,760 Speaker 1: bombs are. He's tried to, in a lot of ways 570 00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:19,960 Speaker 1: kind of walk a more establishment friendly line. So he's 571 00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,840 Speaker 1: the freshman represented, he's the representative for the freshman class 572 00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:28,680 Speaker 1: to Democratic House leadership. And I think that really tells 573 00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,640 Speaker 1: you that he saw himself as being the guy in 574 00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:35,279 Speaker 1: the room with Pelosi. But you know, now, I happen 575 00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:37,640 Speaker 1: to think that that works in the suburbs. But yeah, 576 00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,359 Speaker 1: it works in the suburbs. So stick in the suburbs, right. 577 00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:43,040 Speaker 1: And it turns out that New York City people are 578 00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:47,000 Speaker 1: pretty damn parochial. I mean I heard it a lot 579 00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:49,920 Speaker 1: like he says he was. You know, he likes the 580 00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,120 Speaker 1: village because he's gay and it was important to him 581 00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:54,280 Speaker 1: as a young person. That doesn't mean, you know, the village. 582 00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:56,600 Speaker 1: You know, that doesn't mean that it felt like he 583 00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,200 Speaker 1: was kind of a carpetbagger, which he kind of was moving. 584 00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sympathetic too. I was very sympathetic to 585 00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,799 Speaker 1: him when Sean Patrick Maloney did this and really did 586 00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:08,080 Speaker 1: this to both him and Jahome Bowman and put both 587 00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:10,960 Speaker 1: of them potentially in a difficult situation. I know, Jabal 588 00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:15,200 Speaker 1: Bowman ultimately he had a primary challenge that he was 589 00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,960 Speaker 1: able to easily dispatch with. But yeah, I mean, now 590 00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:21,239 Speaker 1: you like sort of sold out the left when you 591 00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:23,760 Speaker 1: were in Congress and then you screwed over the left 592 00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:27,880 Speaker 1: in terms of winning this Lower Manhattan Brooklyn seat. So 593 00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,520 Speaker 1: I think there are going to be some reflections and 594 00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,359 Speaker 1: some hard feelings there. And then, on the other hand, 595 00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:36,080 Speaker 1: the district that Sean Patrick Maloney did run in, he 596 00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:39,759 Speaker 1: was challenged by someone who's considered kind of a progressive 597 00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:44,160 Speaker 1: rising star, Alessandro Viaggi, who had taken out a long 598 00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:48,440 Speaker 1: time incumbent state senator who was aligned with that breakoff 599 00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:52,359 Speaker 1: Democratic group that was coxing with the Republicans and keeping 600 00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:54,439 Speaker 1: their majority and sets. So she was able to beat 601 00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:56,600 Speaker 1: that person I think in twenty eighteen, So she was 602 00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,040 Speaker 1: kind of a rising star, but not able to even 603 00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:01,520 Speaker 1: come close to getting the got done against John Patrick 604 00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:05,440 Speaker 1: Maloney in this very suburban district, which is, you know, 605 00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:08,520 Speaker 1: sort of like Clinton territory. She'd be Bernie in this district. 606 00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:11,080 Speaker 1: She and Bill actually live in this district in Chappaqua. 607 00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:15,160 Speaker 1: So too many hurdles for Alessandro or Biaggi to overcome there. 608 00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:18,840 Speaker 1: And I know that's a race you were covering carefully too, Dan, Yeah, absolutely. 609 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:23,200 Speaker 1: I mean, this is a person who was endorsed by AOC. 610 00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:27,239 Speaker 1: I mean when AOC won in June twenty eighteen. The 611 00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:30,600 Speaker 1: state legislative primaries were a couple months later in September, 612 00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,480 Speaker 1: and that's when Cynthia Nixon ran against Cuomo as well. 613 00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:37,879 Speaker 1: And at that point, this breakaway faction of eight state 614 00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:41,279 Speaker 1: Senate Democrats had actually disbanded. Cuomo did it to sort 615 00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:43,720 Speaker 1: of protect his left flank. He sort of said, okay, guys, 616 00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,400 Speaker 1: enough of this shtick. I don't need you there anymore, 617 00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:50,839 Speaker 1: sort of blocking progressive legislation. Now I'm running against the left. 618 00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:54,280 Speaker 1: Challenger got to quit it. But the Working Families Party 619 00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:56,120 Speaker 1: and a lot of other folks on the left basically 620 00:36:56,160 --> 00:37:00,320 Speaker 1: said we're not forgetting and they ran eight candidates against 621 00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:04,560 Speaker 1: these sort of ex independent Democratic Conference members this wrote 622 00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:09,120 Speaker 1: rogue faction, and won six of those races. Hers was 623 00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,920 Speaker 1: the highest profile, I mean, because the guy that she 624 00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,799 Speaker 1: took on was the former leader of that group. He'd 625 00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:20,800 Speaker 1: also been accused of forcibly kissing a staffer, and she 626 00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,880 Speaker 1: beat that person out. The person had a much higher 627 00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:28,359 Speaker 1: fundraising hall And Biagy has an interesting trajectory. I mean, 628 00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:32,320 Speaker 1: she worked for the Hillary Clinton campaign in twenty sixteen, 629 00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:34,839 Speaker 1: and then she worked for the Cuomo administration and she 630 00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:39,000 Speaker 1: became disillusioned because she learned about the IDC and all that, 631 00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:42,600 Speaker 1: and subsequent to that she really did become part of 632 00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:45,960 Speaker 1: this new crop of hardcore progressives. I don't think she 633 00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:49,239 Speaker 1: identifies as a socialist, but I think that she worked 634 00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:52,879 Speaker 1: very closely with people like Julia Salazar, who is a socialist, 635 00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:56,360 Speaker 1: to do things like strength and tenant protections, one of 636 00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:58,920 Speaker 1: the things that I did look at. I mean, you 637 00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,680 Speaker 1: can't talk about this rates without noting that Bagi had 638 00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:05,200 Speaker 1: to move in order to or she did move to 639 00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:08,879 Speaker 1: run there. She bought very nice house in Bedford, New York, 640 00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:12,879 Speaker 1: which is again of that sort of Chappequi Elk By 641 00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:16,880 Speaker 1: the way, that Clinton Clintonian sort of nice Westchester area. 642 00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,759 Speaker 1: That's the most democratic part of the district. So there 643 00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:23,000 Speaker 1: are other counties brought by the river go for the 644 00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:26,440 Speaker 1: Putnam and part of Duchess start getting into even some 645 00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:31,040 Speaker 1: trumpy territory there. But she so she had that issue 646 00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:33,759 Speaker 1: that she didn't have these ready made relationships. There were 647 00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:37,960 Speaker 1: a ton of progressives who were early opponents of this 648 00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:42,440 Speaker 1: rogue Democratic faction in the state Senate and early supporters 649 00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:45,239 Speaker 1: of mondere Jones, including people who told me they would 650 00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:51,000 Speaker 1: have supported mondare against Maloney, people like sort of state 651 00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:55,719 Speaker 1: center Elijah Reglenn Melnick, Crochton mayor Brian Pugh. These are 652 00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:59,040 Speaker 1: people who were basically overall progressive. They might be called 653 00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,719 Speaker 1: more of the soft progress than this sort of the 654 00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:05,120 Speaker 1: hardcore progressives. And they basically said, we don't know her, 655 00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:08,600 Speaker 1: we don't have a relationship with her, and they were 656 00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:11,000 Speaker 1: nervous about her general election prospects. And one of the 657 00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:13,600 Speaker 1: reasons they were nervous about that is two tweets she 658 00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:16,920 Speaker 1: put out in sort of the aftermath of George Floyd's 659 00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:20,160 Speaker 1: killing in twenty twenty one, essentially saying what do we 660 00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:23,120 Speaker 1: mean by defund the police? Well, read this article wasn't 661 00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:27,480 Speaker 1: like the most outright endorsement of the defund slogan, but 662 00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:30,640 Speaker 1: it's there on the record. And then the bigger deal 663 00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:34,640 Speaker 1: was that she posted a video of Philly Copps engaging 664 00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:37,840 Speaker 1: an act of brutality against a woman in front of 665 00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:40,880 Speaker 1: her child and said, the police in this country are soulless. 666 00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:47,760 Speaker 1: You could see how frankly, look what we've seen city 667 00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:50,640 Speaker 1: wide in New York City. I think that message would 668 00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,720 Speaker 1: have a really hard time playing at this point in time, 669 00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:56,160 Speaker 1: with the uptick and crime and the backlash and things 670 00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:58,239 Speaker 1: like that. I think it would do well, and sort 671 00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:01,440 Speaker 1: of it would be fine. Are the socialist redoubts of 672 00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:04,879 Speaker 1: northwest Queens and northwest Brooklyn, And we can get into 673 00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:09,960 Speaker 1: that when we talk about the socialists, but that's I 674 00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:13,040 Speaker 1: cannot think of a single instance of somebody with that 675 00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:18,359 Speaker 1: kind of baggage winning a general election in what is 676 00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:24,439 Speaker 1: sort of a suburban light blue and a potentially tough 677 00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:26,600 Speaker 1: year as well. Well. I do want to talk about 678 00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:27,960 Speaker 1: I think this is the last piece I want to 679 00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:32,719 Speaker 1: talk about some of the socialists or socialist aligned victories, 680 00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:37,400 Speaker 1: because I think this was the biggest bright spot at 681 00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:40,520 Speaker 1: least for the left. Who you know, there were some 682 00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:44,000 Speaker 1: missed opportunities at the federal level, but in terms of 683 00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:48,480 Speaker 1: the state legislature, quite actually a dominant showing from the 684 00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:53,640 Speaker 1: DSA left in New York. Here. Yeah, we saw some 685 00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:59,400 Speaker 1: folks sort of takeover new districts. That would be people 686 00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:03,200 Speaker 1: at Christenen Dallas in Northwest Queens. She happens to be 687 00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:07,200 Speaker 1: an employee of American Express, but she is a totally 688 00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:12,480 Speaker 1: a total democratic socialist and I think will join this 689 00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:15,840 Speaker 1: crop that. I think we could see getting close to 690 00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:19,400 Speaker 1: ten people who are identify as democratic socialists in the 691 00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:22,920 Speaker 1: New York State legislature, and prior to twenty eighteen it 692 00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:27,040 Speaker 1: was zero and other people held their spots, people like 693 00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:31,839 Speaker 1: Jabari Brisport in Brooklyn who had a challenger. There were 694 00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:34,799 Speaker 1: other progressives, and I think it's important to note Dan 695 00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:38,040 Speaker 1: that a lot of these folks, I know, Jabari Brisport's 696 00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:42,799 Speaker 1: opponent in particular, were backed by Mayor Adams. So this 697 00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,880 Speaker 1: was kind of a power play from Mayor Eric Adams 698 00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:48,120 Speaker 1: to put his stamp on the legislature and push out 699 00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:52,759 Speaker 1: some of the further left factions that he disagrees with 700 00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:55,640 Speaker 1: and did not work out well for him, kind of 701 00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:59,400 Speaker 1: also a demonstration of his political weakness right now. I 702 00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:01,719 Speaker 1: think it is. I think what we've seen is that 703 00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:06,719 Speaker 1: the power of the machine has gotten and sort of 704 00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:10,600 Speaker 1: just general traditional patronage politics, whether in New York City 705 00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:13,440 Speaker 1: or places like Pittsburgh, I've covered that a lot. It 706 00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:16,960 Speaker 1: has gotten a lot weaker at the local and state level, 707 00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:22,120 Speaker 1: where the kind of organizing that DSA does very effectively, 708 00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:26,080 Speaker 1: door knocking, changing margin being able to move margins of 709 00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:30,560 Speaker 1: votes in the hundreds right rather than the thousands, remains 710 00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:35,239 Speaker 1: really powerful. And perhaps also because at the state and 711 00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,600 Speaker 1: local level, when it comes to issues like housing and 712 00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:44,800 Speaker 1: protecting renters, rental protections, those are easier sells and you 713 00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:47,000 Speaker 1: don't sort of get into the kind of federal realm 714 00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:50,279 Speaker 1: of oh what does this person think about Trump? Or 715 00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:53,400 Speaker 1: even the policing issues as much, which tend to be 716 00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:55,640 Speaker 1: more local. So I should say maybe just at the 717 00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:59,240 Speaker 1: state legislative level. I think that there was a really 718 00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:04,920 Speaker 1: interesting race as well in the Bronx where Gustavo Rivera 719 00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:09,000 Speaker 1: went up again He's a progressive, not a socialist, but 720 00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:12,200 Speaker 1: very firmly aligned with those folks went up against sort 721 00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:16,040 Speaker 1: of a Bronx machine candidate also endorsed by Adreano espayat So, 722 00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:20,160 Speaker 1: who is the Congressman from Upper Manhattan and part of 723 00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:24,759 Speaker 1: the South Bronx and he defeated her, including in a 724 00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:27,920 Speaker 1: district that now has the community of Riverdale, which is 725 00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:30,800 Speaker 1: more affluent, also has a lot of Pro Israel voters. 726 00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:34,000 Speaker 1: I think you did start to see some outside groups 727 00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:38,640 Speaker 1: with those pro Israel leanings intervening there. Yeah. I mean, 728 00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:42,479 Speaker 1: without getting into a case by case and going into 729 00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:45,000 Speaker 1: all of the details, I know it does look like 730 00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:48,560 Speaker 1: in central and south Brooklyn one of these more sort 731 00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:51,839 Speaker 1: of centrist Democratic candidates was able to hold on, though 732 00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:55,760 Speaker 1: that person was an incumbent, Kevin Parker is still heavily 733 00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,960 Speaker 1: neighborhood and region dependent. But we are sort of seeing 734 00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:04,200 Speaker 1: a a bit of a socialist fertile crescent emerge in 735 00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:09,840 Speaker 1: northwest Brooklyn and Northwest Queens along the water there where 736 00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:13,879 Speaker 1: a lot of the young people who live there are 737 00:44:14,000 --> 00:44:17,799 Speaker 1: just very left leaning, sometimes because they've been priced out 738 00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:21,520 Speaker 1: of Manhattan and have created these communities there, sometimes just 739 00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:25,040 Speaker 1: because that's their ideology, and that's sort of where these 740 00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:29,560 Speaker 1: seats have come up and been created. Obviously, we know 741 00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:33,280 Speaker 1: that in Northwest Queens, AOC is the member of Congress, 742 00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:37,440 Speaker 1: so that fits. In northwest Brooklyn it's Nitdi of Alaskas, 743 00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:41,440 Speaker 1: and she obviously went hard for city council Woman Carlina 744 00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:44,520 Speaker 1: Rivera in the New York tenth primary. She's sort of 745 00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:48,759 Speaker 1: viewed as one of the older generation of progressive but 746 00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:51,960 Speaker 1: not going to really stick her neck out against party leadership. 747 00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:58,760 Speaker 1: If she does ultimately decide to retire or to or frankly, 748 00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:02,160 Speaker 1: if she sticks around too long, I think that's where 749 00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:05,399 Speaker 1: people will have their eye on for a new sort 750 00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:08,560 Speaker 1: of truly left wing member of cos. Well. I saw 751 00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:11,239 Speaker 1: Ross Barkin, who was another friend of the show and 752 00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:14,440 Speaker 1: also great New York City political observer, pointing out that 753 00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:17,440 Speaker 1: you know, just a few years ago, you wouldn't laugh 754 00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:19,480 Speaker 1: out of the room if you said the DSA endorsement 755 00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:23,120 Speaker 1: was going to matter. So even though you know it's 756 00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:25,759 Speaker 1: very small steps forward, the fact of the matter is 757 00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:28,319 Speaker 1: they're sort of brick by brick building out a real 758 00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:32,279 Speaker 1: political operation and a real political bench with you know, 759 00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:35,120 Speaker 1: established legislators who can then go on and run for 760 00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:39,000 Speaker 1: those congressional seats and run for higher office. So a 761 00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:43,960 Speaker 1: lot of very interesting results here, it's never dull and 762 00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:47,120 Speaker 1: extremely grateful to you Dan for helping us understand all 763 00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:50,840 Speaker 1: of it. Always happy to be here, Crystal. This was 764 00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:55,160 Speaker 1: super in depth and yeah, great talng people. Hopefully people 765 00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:58,040 Speaker 1: got everything they needed to know out of the Florida 766 00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:00,400 Speaker 1: and New York primary landscape and also what it might 767 00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:03,200 Speaker 1: mean for the fall. Dan, great to see you and 768 00:46:03,239 --> 00:46:05,319 Speaker 1: everybody out there. Thank you for watching. We're gonna have 769 00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:05,960 Speaker 1: more for you later