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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 2: And welcome to Bloomberg Sound On From Monday on Joe

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Speaker 2: Matthew in Washington, And just like that, I'd been hearing

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Speaker 2: about optimism all day and then the headline hits the terminal.

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Speaker 2: McCarthy says, not seeing any movement on debt negotiations. Now,

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Speaker 2: of course this could be part of the negotiation, but

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Speaker 2: the Speaker of the House just told reporters, I just

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Speaker 2: don't see any real movement on anything. You really need

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Speaker 2: something at the end of this week. He had some

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Speaker 2: would argue, of course, before the end of this week,

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Speaker 2: because again President Biden's about to go overseas. He flies

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Speaker 2: out of here on his way to Japan on Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: so that means tomorrow's meeting. That's the Tuesday meeting again

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Speaker 2: with the principles in the room is looming large and

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of folks in the market hoping it

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Speaker 2: generates something. That's where we begin with Jack Fitzpatrick Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: got Congress reporter who's been all over this, and I

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Speaker 2: wonder your thoughts on this most recent statement from Speaker McCarthy, Jack,

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Speaker 2: Is he just going to say that until there actually

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Speaker 2: is a deal?

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Speaker 3: That may be the case. Every time there's been some

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Speaker 3: optimism in these talks, McCarthy has seemed to make a

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Speaker 3: point to downplay that and stay they're not giving enough,

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Speaker 3: there's not enough movement, and things aren't moving fast enough.

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Speaker 3: He seems to be keeping the pressure on the president

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Speaker 3: and on Democrats, And there's so much back and forth

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Speaker 3: in this that I'm not sure anybody is going to

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Speaker 3: say they're happy with the pace of negotiations until there's

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Speaker 3: virtually a deal. So I don't think it's necessarily a

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Speaker 3: cause to panic, because it's not the first time McCarthy

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Speaker 3: has spoken pretty negative negatively about the pace of these talks.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Okay, well, or do we have any reason to

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Speaker 2: be I guess more optimistic today than we were on Friday.

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Speaker 2: We know Staffer's met on Saturday. I think it was

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Speaker 2: a roughly three hour session. Jack. I don't know how

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Speaker 2: you're reporting checks out on that, but there has been

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Speaker 2: this thought that, hey, you know what everything's going to

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Speaker 2: be all right. How come people to talk it that way?

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Speaker 3: Well, you know, if you look at the details of this,

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Speaker 3: the fact that staff are talking and there have been

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Speaker 3: little hints of possible compromises. You know, late last week

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Speaker 3: Kevin McCarthy said almost in passing that the money they

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Speaker 3: want to pull back, the unspent COVID money, could count

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Speaker 3: toward the separate cuts that they wanted. You really have

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Speaker 3: to look at the very fine details to see little

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Speaker 3: bits of progress, because again, until they're close to a deal,

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Speaker 3: I don't think there's going to be much celebration. But

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Speaker 3: the fact that they are having those staff talks, the

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Speaker 3: fact that there is the meeting set for Tuesday, it's

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Speaker 3: difficult to discern between movement and progress, but clearly there

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Speaker 3: is at least movement.

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Speaker 2: Got it, Jack, Thank you. Let's stay close this week.

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Speaker 2: Jack Fitzpatrick Bloomberg Government Congress supporter, checking in as we

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Speaker 2: prepare for the big meeting tomorrow. And I'd love to

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Speaker 2: hear what Mick mulvaney thinks about all of this back

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Speaker 2: with us, as he does every Monday. The former OMB director,

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Speaker 2: former US Special Envoy for Northern Ireland and important in

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Speaker 2: this case, former acting White House Chief of Staff, and

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Speaker 2: just while we're at it, former Congressman. He's co founder

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Speaker 2: of the House Freedom Caucus, so he's checking all the boxes. Mick,

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Speaker 2: it's great to have you. I hope you had a

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Speaker 2: great weekend. Do you read into this like clawing back

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Speaker 2: COVID funding, maybe seizing on permitting reform as signs of progress?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, a little bit. The fact they set the meeting

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Speaker 4: for tomorrow tells me as a little bit of progress.

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Speaker 4: When I found out along with the rest of us,

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Speaker 4: that the Friday meeting had been canceled, yeah, what that

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Speaker 4: told me was there had been no progress none. There's

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Speaker 4: no reason for staffers to put their principles back in

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Speaker 4: a meeting if there's nothing new to talk about. You

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Speaker 4: don't waste your principal's time, whether not you were for

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Speaker 4: McCarthy or Schumer or President Biden. So when they canceled

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Speaker 4: the meeting last Friday, that tells me, Okay, they haven't

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Speaker 4: made any progress. The fact they've rescheduled that for tomorrow

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Speaker 4: tells me all right, I mean there's a little bit.

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Speaker 4: If that meeting holds, so that means they probably have

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Speaker 4: at least gotten far enough to justify taking the top

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Speaker 4: of the principal people involved. Now they cancel that meeting,

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Speaker 4: and if Biden goes overseas, then't that means that really

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Speaker 4: things are not going very well and they have not

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Speaker 4: very much progress. But we'll know by tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: There's been a lot of folks asking if the president

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Speaker 2: should cancel this trip altogether. There's been talk about him

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Speaker 2: shortening the trip. But to your point, mech the optics

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Speaker 2: there will will be I'm sure screaming when you see

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Speaker 2: him climbing the stairs up to air Force one to

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Speaker 2: leave the country later this week. Do they need to

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Speaker 2: get the framework of a deal before he flies away?

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Speaker 4: They need to make some progress. Keep in mind that

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Speaker 4: is a very dramatic sort of optic. You're absolutely right.

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Speaker 4: Keep in mind Nancy Pelosi left to go overseas during

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Speaker 4: the government shutdown, and she paid a political price for

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Speaker 4: that for a long time. We actually cancel the trip

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Speaker 4: overseas right on. I believe it was in the heels

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Speaker 4: of one of the hurricanes we had in twenty nineteen

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Speaker 4: that the visual of a president getting up the steps

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Speaker 4: of that very impressive airplane and leaving the country when

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Speaker 4: there's something important going on domestically, you really really harmful

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Speaker 4: for a president. So I'd be surprised if if he

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Speaker 4: goes or if he doesn't make some change, unless they've

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Speaker 4: made significant progress to where he can say, look, I'll

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Speaker 4: be talking on the phone with Kevin or I'm going

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Speaker 4: we'll make a good progress. We feel like it's moving

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Speaker 4: in the right direction. I can I can walk in

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Speaker 4: shoe gum at the same time.

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Speaker 2: Okay, that's important to consider when we walk up on Wednesday.

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Speaker 2: Does it actually increase though? Does it heighten the urgency here?

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Speaker 2: People keep talking about two weeks. You could actually make

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Speaker 2: the argument that, as far as the market is concerned,

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Speaker 2: you've got two days to make some news here, Mick,

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Speaker 2: you do keep in mind.

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Speaker 4: And maybe I'm in the minority. I've never believed Jennet

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Speaker 4: Yelling got the date wrong. At least she says she

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Speaker 4: got the date wrong, And that to me is that's

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Speaker 4: a that's that's that's a that's that bothers me.

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Speaker 2: You don't think it's June first.

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Speaker 4: I don't. And here's why. That means either she got

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Speaker 4: the date wrong to the wrong side, which you can't do. Okay,

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Speaker 4: that's malpractice at the highest level. To the Treasury secretary.

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Speaker 4: You can come in and say it's June thirtieth and

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Speaker 4: the half of the July fifteenth, but you can't say

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Speaker 4: that it's June thirty and have it been June first.

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Speaker 4: That's that's the one mistake you can't make, is the

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Speaker 4: Treasury secretary, which means either she did you know, she's

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Speaker 4: not competent, which I don't believe. I think she's a

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Speaker 4: very sharp lady. Or it's done for political purposes, for pressure.

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Speaker 4: You in mind, there's investment banks out there doing their

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Speaker 4: own sort of analysis that say they think the number

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Speaker 4: is someplace in July, et cetera. I recognize there as

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Speaker 4: other folks who say could be earlier in June, but

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Speaker 4: that has always stood out to me as something that

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Speaker 4: doesn't fit. And the Treasury Secretary misses the date to

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Speaker 4: the wrong side of the calendar. That's got me scratching

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Speaker 4: my head.

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Speaker 2: She's supposed to update that this week, that will get

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Speaker 2: a more precise X date. Does that change then when

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Speaker 2: we hear from her again?

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Speaker 4: You know, keep on. The Treasury is Treasury is big, right,

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Speaker 4: and you've talked to anybody's ever worked there. They don't

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Speaker 4: know exactly to the penny they've got every single day

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Speaker 4: and any particular time that it'd be all five or

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Speaker 4: ten billion dollars. So you have to understand that there's gonna

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Speaker 4: be some leeway in the dates and the numbers anyway.

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Speaker 4: But if she comes back, you know, I can't imagine

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Speaker 4: moving it further to the left. That would be sort

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Speaker 4: of cataclysmics. She comes into a rerun out of money

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Speaker 4: May twentyth so we'll see what she says this week.

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Speaker 2: Spending some time with McK mulvaney here on Bloomberg's sound on,

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Speaker 2: I want to ask you about Maybe it feels far afield,

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Speaker 2: but I feel like it's an important question worth asking again, Mick,

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Speaker 2: because legislation initially sponsored by Senator Chris van Holland has

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Speaker 2: been reintroduced to eliminate the debt ceiling. And in my

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Speaker 2: travels this morning, I thought, you know, I like to

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Speaker 2: geek out a little bit. I was kind of tooling around.

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Speaker 2: I saw this important hearing that the House Financial Services

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Speaker 2: Committee held back in twenty twenty two. This is in February,

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Speaker 2: and Louise Shiner from Brookings was one of the several

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Speaker 2: people who testified. You might recognize another one there, and

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Speaker 2: she made the case for eliminating the debt ceiling. Her

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Speaker 2: execure's how she.

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Speaker 5: Put in, bickering over the debt ceiling is a waste

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Speaker 5: of time and energy. It creates unnecessary uncertainty, It threatens

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Speaker 5: the benefits that we enjoy of issuing the world's safest asset,

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Speaker 5: and it undermines public confidence in our public institutions.

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Speaker 2: Okay, that's from prepared remarks. And she went into depth

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Speaker 2: on each of those points. There was another person on

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Speaker 2: that panel, another expert. His name was Mick mulvaney, and

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Speaker 2: make you explain why you disagree.

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Speaker 6: That seems like one of the overriding themes here is

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Speaker 6: that you want to get rid of because it's hard,

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Speaker 6: it's messy, it's a distraction. Okay, yeah, it probably is.

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Speaker 6: So is passing a budget. That's not easy. By the way,

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Speaker 6: I've involved with several budgets. I was involved, heavily involved

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Speaker 6: in the twenty seventeen debt ceiling increase from President trumpet

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Speaker 6: hard they are, you all know. I know how hard

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Speaker 6: they are, and how messy they are, and how partisan

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Speaker 6: they are.

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Speaker 2: We do know, Mick, when you look over the course

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Speaker 2: of recent history, at least though it's done little to

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Speaker 2: control spending or debt. Otherwise we wouldn't be talking about

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Speaker 2: it today, So why not get rid of it?

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Speaker 4: Actually that's not I know you're by the way. I

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Speaker 4: appreciate the fact you're geeking out like this because now

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Speaker 4: I know why I like you so much, because there

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Speaker 4: are a few people I can have these conversations with.

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Speaker 4: Is the debt ceiling led to the balanced budget in

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Speaker 4: nineteen nineteen ninety, it led to the sequestion in twenty eleven.

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Speaker 2: Maybe I should have said more recent history the sequester, though,

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Speaker 2: my goodness, is that what we want here?

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Speaker 4: No, because the sequest was it was a dramatic failure,

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Speaker 4: there's no question about it. But at least again that

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Speaker 4: was the discussion about that's changing our practices. That's what

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Speaker 4: mind people say, Oh, why are the Republicans doing this?

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Speaker 4: They're so difficult, you know, they're they're always there's such extremists,

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Speaker 4: there's such you know, they're trying to take us to

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Speaker 4: the edge and so forth. I think if you put

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Speaker 4: your if you try to look at the world through

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Speaker 4: their perspective, what they would say is, well, when is

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Speaker 4: a good time to talk about spending less Okay, Apparently

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Speaker 4: it's not when we do a budget because that leads

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Speaker 4: to a government shutdown. We can't do that. We can't

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Speaker 4: do it when i'm debt ceiling because that leads to

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Speaker 4: default on the debt. But when is a good time.

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Speaker 4: It doesn't seem this ever a good time in Washington,

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Speaker 4: DC for some people at least to talk about spending less.

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Speaker 4: And that woman who was on the on the panel

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Speaker 4: with me was making the case that you don't want

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Speaker 4: to have that conversation about a debt ceiling because they

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Speaker 4: never want a lot of folks never want to have

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Speaker 4: that discussion. And that's where I think for us treates

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Speaker 4: a lot of Republicans just look, we get it. We'd

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Speaker 4: rather not talk about it here, we'd rather talk about

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Speaker 4: it on a regular day, But no one talks about

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Speaker 4: it with us. So this is the only chance we

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Speaker 4: have to force this public.

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Speaker 2: Well, and you made the point actually in that same hearing,

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Speaker 2: and you've done it on this program, that that's a

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Speaker 2: bipartisn't problem. There are a lot of Republicans that don't

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Speaker 2: want to talk about it either.

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Speaker 4: Right. Oh, I can't tell you the number of Republicans

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Speaker 4: that was walking down the hallway one day when I

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Speaker 4: was a freshman. I got tore in twenty eleven and

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Speaker 4: one of the old bulls was there. He said, you're

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Speaker 4: a Moulvaney. I said, yeah, I guess you know. I

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Speaker 4: love you.

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Speaker 7: I love you.

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Speaker 4: Crystal Conservatives, you were here with Reagan, you left. You know,

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Speaker 4: you were here with Newt you left. You're here again,

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Speaker 4: and you're gonna leave and I'm still going to be

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Speaker 4: here and I'm gone and he's still there. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: there's a lot of Republicans that like to spend money

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Speaker 4: as well.

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Speaker 2: Oh man, we need to start naming names here. As

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Speaker 2: we spend time with Thick Bulvaney, a former OMB director

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Speaker 2: and former acting White House Chief of Staff. I could

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Speaker 2: keep going, but the OMB director is an important part here, Mick.

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Speaker 2: As you look at this this debate, are we beyond

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Speaker 2: the idea of negotiating these separately? I mean, when the

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Speaker 2: President refers to quote unquote negotiations going, well, I guess

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Speaker 2: we are negotiating the budget after all.

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Speaker 7: We are.

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Speaker 4: And we always negotiate, right, I mean, especially when there's

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Speaker 4: where's one party in charge one branch of government another

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Speaker 4: and the other negotiation is how it's supposed to work.

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Speaker 4: Excuse me, So we'll have these discussions and there'll be

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Speaker 4: some sort of compromise. I think that the key now

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Speaker 4: is how do you let the Democrats save face that

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Speaker 4: Biden said he wouldn't do any negotiation at all. He

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Speaker 4: seems to have dug in on that. So how does

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Speaker 4: he get from that to some sort of deal. What

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Speaker 4: does the structure look like that allows him to save

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Speaker 4: face to negotiate while still saying that he did negotiate

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Speaker 4: on the debt ceiling. I think that's the artwork here.

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Speaker 3: Nick.

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Speaker 2: It's great to have you, Thanks for coming in. As always,

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Speaker 2: mckmlvney with us. We talk every Monday right around this

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Speaker 2: time about issues that matter, and this one is boy

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Speaker 2: right in the wheelhouse of McK mulvaney and of course

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Speaker 2: our panel. I want to hear from Rick and Jeanie

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Speaker 2: while we have the time here, Jeanie Shanzano. When Rick

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Speaker 2: Davis join us Bloomberg Politics contributors, Rick, what's your thought

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Speaker 2: on that whole idea? I won't ask you to get

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Speaker 2: down on eliminating the debt ceiling quite yet, but as

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Speaker 2: President Biden says openly that negotiations are well and that

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Speaker 2: he's optimistic. Doesn't that mean then we never did break

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Speaker 2: these two apart. Both are being done at once.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, well, or they're being done separately together. I don't

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Speaker 8: know what the difference is, right, And we've been talking

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Speaker 8: about that for a long time. You knew that ultimately

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Speaker 8: there would be a negotiation around spending because that was

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Speaker 8: the starting point for Republicans and it wasn't going to

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Speaker 8: just vanish. And the fact that that sort of this

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Speaker 8: administration President Biden held on so long to this notion

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Speaker 8: that they were only ever going to be for a

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Speaker 8: clean debt ceiling increase was fantasy.

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Speaker 2: And so now I think we're into reality.

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Speaker 8: I mean, there's as Mick was saying, I mean, now

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Speaker 8: people are negotiating. And that's what Washington does. It negotiates.

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Speaker 8: And so when you start negotiating, you usually come out

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Speaker 8: with something that both parties can say yes to, GINI.

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Speaker 2: You probably sell. The president on his bike ride yesterday

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Speaker 2: there were hoob with Beech them Mother's Day ride and

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Speaker 2: reporters asked him out it's going and he did refer

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Speaker 2: to negotiations proceeding. He says he's an inherent optimist. You know,

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Speaker 2: you've heard that line from him before. So what was

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Speaker 2: the point of waiting all this time then to non

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Speaker 2: negotiate in the name of a clean debt ceiling bill?

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Speaker 2: If we're just going to do it at the last.

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Speaker 9: Minute, Well, you know, I think the President is making

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Speaker 9: an important point, and I think Democrats are that this

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Speaker 9: should not be used as a political football, and that

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Speaker 9: is what's happening. We have to pay our debts as

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Speaker 9: a country, and I am concerned that even if they

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Speaker 9: do make a deal, and I certainly hope they do

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Speaker 9: and they lift the debt ceiling, are we going to

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Speaker 9: do this again next year and the year after and

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Speaker 9: the year after that, especially when we have one party

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Speaker 9: in charge of the House or Senate and the other

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Speaker 9: in the White House. That is certainly no way to

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Speaker 9: run a government. It's no way to budget. And so

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Speaker 9: I respectfully disagree with mcmulvaney on the fact that we

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Speaker 9: should not have a debt ceiling. It does not serve

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Speaker 9: any useful purpose. Republicans keep saying it's a way to

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Speaker 9: limit spending, but that's not the only tool we have.

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Speaker 9: And that, by the way, is what Louis Shiner was

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Speaker 9: saying during that during her hearing.

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Speaker 2: She's shed a lot more where that came from. We're

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Speaker 2: going to dig into that issue coming up with Rick

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Speaker 2: and Jeanie as to whether we should just get rid

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Speaker 2: of the thing altogether, because my god, just think of

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Speaker 2: what else we could be talking about. The analogies that

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Speaker 2: came out of that hearing were pretty remarkable as well.

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Speaker 2: But Rick, is this a deal that needs to be

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Speaker 2: done in the next two days, as in before the

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Speaker 2: president leaves the country?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, certainly the president would want some indication

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Speaker 8: that they have a deal, whether it goes through all

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Speaker 8: the machinations of Congress, you know, passing a bill and

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Speaker 8: getting it to his desk can come. I think his

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Speaker 8: signing after he gets back from the G seven. But

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Speaker 8: he leaves on Thursday or Wednesday, and so tis times

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Speaker 8: ticking away.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 1: tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: The time for Excuses is over. That from the governor

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Speaker 2: of Florida, Ron De sant is telling Republicans over the

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Speaker 2: weekend in Iowa that it's time to stop looking backward.

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Speaker 5: Now.

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Speaker 10: At the end of the day, governing is not about entertaining.

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Speaker 10: Governing is not about building a brand or talking on

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Speaker 10: social media and virtue signaling. It's ultimately about winning and

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Speaker 10: about producing results. And that's what you've done in Iowa,

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Speaker 10: and that's what we've done in Florida.

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Speaker 2: All Right, almost sounds like he's running for president. Actually

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Speaker 2: there is news. And by the way, we told you

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Speaker 2: about it last week. Everyone's running around this morning with

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Speaker 2: this report that he's going to announce for president in

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Speaker 2: two weeks time roughly. Nancy Cook told us that last

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Speaker 2: week on Bloomberg she's been ensconced in Tallahassee and has

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Speaker 2: been doing some great reporting. As we bring in our panel,

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Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Shanse no Bloomberg Politics contributors with

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Speaker 2: an eye on Iowa over the weekend, and a little

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Speaker 2: bit to talk about here. Because Donald Trump, of course,

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Speaker 2: was supposed to hold a rally himself, Genie, he canceled it,

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Speaker 2: blaming tornadoes, torny, dangerous weather. He said, we must protect

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Speaker 2: those patriots, But it turns out that he was actually

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Speaker 2: a watch, not a warning, and it was to expire

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Speaker 2: before his rally was scheduled to begin. Ron DeSantis continuing

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Speaker 2: his tour. He was even out there laughing, flipping burgers

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Speaker 2: over the weekend. Some are calling it DeSantis two point

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Speaker 2: zero as he's doubled over, laughing, talking with potential supporters. Genie,

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Speaker 2: what's going on here? Is it time to announce we're over?

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Speaker 9: Meetball?

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Speaker 11: Ron?

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Speaker 9: Onto?

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Speaker 2: What burger Ron?

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Speaker 9: Something like that? Yeah, And he had the state to himself,

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Speaker 9: as you mentioned, because Donald Stiek was scared off by

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Speaker 9: a tornado watch. You know, I think there's some questions

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Speaker 9: going on. You look at what some people out of

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Speaker 9: Iowa have been talking about online and they're saying, listen

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Speaker 9: this this watch expired even before the rally was set

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Speaker 9: to begin. So it's a little bit question. It may

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Speaker 9: be that he needed time to put together his very

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Speaker 9: lovely Mother's Day address on truth Social which if anybody

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Speaker 9: didn't get a chance to read it is just wonderful.

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Speaker 9: It's you know, I know, Joe Matthew, you I'm sure

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Speaker 9: said happy Mother's Day to your wife and your mother

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Speaker 9: in a lovely way as I should say, did Rond

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Speaker 9: de Santis? Donald Trump left off Milania, but he went

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Speaker 9: for the Marxists, the communist, the radical left, that right,

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Speaker 9: everything else. It's quite a.

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Speaker 2: He's opening his heart to a lot of different people.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, yeah, very true. But I thought Ron DeSantis, you know,

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Speaker 9: he's he's putting himself out there. But I think the

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Speaker 9: big question about his wanting to talk about this idea

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Speaker 9: about losing, rejecting this culture of losing. He's right on that. Politically.

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Speaker 9: The problem for him is he going to say and

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Speaker 9: admit to Republicans that Donald Trump lost the twenty election,

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Speaker 9: because you can't say he's a loser and Republicans keep

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Speaker 9: losing if you're not willing to say he lost the

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Speaker 9: last election. And Ron De Santis hasn't said it yet.

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Speaker 2: He has not said it, Rick, Is that Are those

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Speaker 2: words going to cross his lips in the next two weeks.

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Speaker 8: Oh, I'm sure he'll find some in artful way of

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Speaker 8: saying the same thing without being as direct as genius.

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Speaker 8: And uh, And then then again, there is not a

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Speaker 8: candidate ever invented who's as direct as genius. So I

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Speaker 8: don't think we should expect that standard.

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Speaker 2: But you know, sure.

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Speaker 8: I mean these are part of his his his his comparisons.

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Speaker 8: This weekend in Iowa, he was he was all about

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Speaker 8: this sort of half hit where he's I'm not saying

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Speaker 8: who I'm referring to, but we've got quit talking about

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Speaker 8: the past and the twenty twenty election, and we got

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Speaker 8: to think about the future and and and look, I

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Speaker 8: mean maybe he's just warming up to pushing back a

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Speaker 8: little bit more. But if you watch Chris Christy on

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Speaker 8: the weekend shows, uh, you've heard him just hammering Donald Trump,

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Speaker 8: his performance on the CNN town hall, and and and

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Speaker 8: and and the expectations of another Trump presidency. And I

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Speaker 8: got to tell you, I said, there, there's got to

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Speaker 8: be some kind of way that these candidates can can

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Speaker 8: fit into this narrative where they push back on Trump effectively.

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Speaker 8: Neither one of them are candidates for president, but look

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Speaker 8: how differently they're approaching Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: True.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a great point, Rick, the lines that you're

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Speaker 2: mentioning that we just played it for you. Governing is

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Speaker 2: not about entertaining. It's not about building a brand or

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Speaker 2: talking on social media and virtue signaling. All of this.

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Speaker 2: He's talking about Donald Trump and He continued to workshop

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Speaker 2: it over the course of different stops in Iowa. Here's

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Speaker 2: another take.

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Speaker 12: I think if we make this election about a referendum

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Speaker 12: on Joe Biden and his failed policies, and we provide

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Speaker 12: a positive alternative to take America in the new direction,

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Speaker 12: I think Republicans will win across the board.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a nice round of applause there mentions

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden as if he's a candidate.

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Speaker 13: If the elections about anything else, it's about distractions, side issues,

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Speaker 13: all these other things. If we allow Biden to just

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Speaker 13: sit in his basement again and not have to be

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Speaker 13: held accountable, well then I think the Democrats are likely

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Speaker 13: to seize that power that we know they will.

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Speaker 2: So when he announces Genie, if you substitute distractions and

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Speaker 2: side shows or side issues whatever he said there for

434
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Speaker 2: the name Donald Trump, does that have the impact that

435
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:11,960
Speaker 2: you're looking for?

436
00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:14,399
Speaker 9: You know, I think it would be a step in

437
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,639
Speaker 9: the right direction for him. Well, let me put it

438
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,520
Speaker 9: this way. We don't know what the outcome will be.

439
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:20,760
Speaker 9: You know, we don't think he'll ever get that thirty

440
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,800
Speaker 9: percent that's all in on Trump, but you know he

441
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,359
Speaker 9: is going to have a hard time sort of running

442
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,679
Speaker 9: in and being Trump light if he's not willing and

443
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,400
Speaker 9: I agree with Chris Christy on this to go and

444
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,119
Speaker 9: confront Trump directly. He's going to have to get on

445
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:36,919
Speaker 9: a debate stage with Trump at some point if Trump

446
00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,760
Speaker 9: deems to debate, and I think he will, and so

447
00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:42,760
Speaker 9: you know, he's going to have to confront him in

448
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,159
Speaker 9: just the way anybody who's with Donald Trump has to

449
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 9: confront him. He's not going to get out of it,

450
00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:50,240
Speaker 9: sort of just speaking in circles about Donald Trump. But

451
00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:53,120
Speaker 9: this is the problem for Ron DeSantis, and I think

452
00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:56,160
Speaker 9: for all these candidates. They don't want to frighten off

453
00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 9: these primary voters, even though polls are showing in some

454
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 9: of these sort of purple states they can beat Biden

455
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 9: and Trump can't. But they're really really nervous about offending

456
00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,439
Speaker 9: these primary voters, and so they are going easy on

457
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 9: Trump and that's going to be a problem for him.

458
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,720
Speaker 2: I think the president, the former president is calling him Rob.

459
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:18,720
Speaker 2: Now maybe you guys can explain this to me, but

460
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 2: he put on the truth social here one day ago,

461
00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:25,480
Speaker 2: Rob dysanctimonious, and his poll numbers are dropping like a rock.

462
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,640
Speaker 2: I would almost be inclined to say these are record falls.

463
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 2: The question is Rob, and he's got it in quotes.

464
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,960
Speaker 2: Is Rob just young and experienced, in naive or more troubling,

465
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 2: is he a fool who has no idea what he's doing?

466
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 2: Is this like part of the angle here, Ricky, you

467
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 2: get his name wrong just to upset him a little bit.

468
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,639
Speaker 8: I'm sure it gets into his head, right, I mean,

469
00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 8: nobody wants nobody wants to nobody wants a nickname from him,

470
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:52,640
Speaker 8: but nobody wants to get his name wrong from him.

471
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 8: And I'm sure this is just sort of the head

472
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 8: game that Donald Trump plays. You know, I've known other

473
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 8: people in politics would intentionally call people by their wrong

474
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,080
Speaker 8: name just to freak him out. And there's nothing more

475
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:07,880
Speaker 8: personal than your name, So why not you really insult

476
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 8: somebody by getting it wrong. But this is Donald Trump, right,

477
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 8: I mean, he actually is very good at psychops, right,

478
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:17,920
Speaker 8: I mean, and he'll get under everybody's skin and he'll

479
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 8: make them worry and he'll make them second guess their

480
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,440
Speaker 8: own motives. But at the end of the day, I think,

481
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,679
Speaker 8: you know, all these canons have to think through like

482
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:27,919
Speaker 8: what's the best way for me to run, Whether I'm

483
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 8: taking him head on, or whether I'm doing bank shots.

484
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:31,200
Speaker 2: But they got it.

485
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 8: But this is a late forming field of people who

486
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,440
Speaker 8: are giving Donald Trump the field right now to play

487
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 8: on pretty much by themselves, by himself, and he's making

488
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 8: good use of it. So if DeSantis is going to

489
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:47,400
Speaker 8: run for president, he needs to pull that trigger pretty soon.

490
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:49,680
Speaker 8: If Chris Christy's going to run for president, he needs

491
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 8: to make a decision, because not making a decision makes

492
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 8: you look weak.

493
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 2: Then again, Donald Trump pulls out at the last minute.

494
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:58,959
Speaker 2: There canceled the event in Iowa. There are questions rick

495
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:01,399
Speaker 2: about the number of cars that were in the parking lot,

496
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 2: whether it was a turnout issue. Was that a bad move.

497
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,199
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's always a bad move to cancel. Nobody likes that.

498
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 8: I remember the days when John mccame with cancel because

499
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:12,719
Speaker 8: he had to make a vote in the Senate.

500
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 2: Oh what a horrible thing, because nobody.

501
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 8: Wants to know that you actually stayed in Washington did

502
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 8: your day job. I mean, they're like, I want to

503
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 8: waste the time. That is, we want you to be president.

504
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 8: Quit quit being a senator. So canceling is a bad thing,

505
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 8: and canceling around a Desanti's visit to Iowa was even worse.

506
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 8: And so I do think it shows some vulnerability by Trump.

507
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,400
Speaker 8: He didn't want to take him on head on. I mean, frankly,

508
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:40,880
Speaker 8: he could have flown into some other airport and done

509
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:44,679
Speaker 8: exactly what DeSantis did. You show up somewhere and be

510
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 8: a celebrity for a minute. And this is the problem

511
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,399
Speaker 8: with a big ship like what he's sailing. He's running

512
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 8: as if he were president and he and he's not

513
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 8: being very nimble in his approach to politics.

514
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 2: All right, Genie, I got the truth social I used

515
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 2: your log in. This is from Mother's Day.

516
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 1: Donald J.

517
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 2: Trump, Happy Mother's Day to all and alls in caps,

518
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 2: in particular the mothers, wives and lovers of the radical left, fascists,

519
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:19,679
Speaker 2: Marxist and communists who are doing everything within their power

520
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:23,959
Speaker 2: to destroy and obliterate our once great country. Does that

521
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 2: make up for the rally, Genie?

522
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 9: You know it was I think just to you know,

523
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:31,920
Speaker 9: end the week that started with the crazy Town hall

524
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,199
Speaker 9: by reminding everybody if they thought he was going to

525
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 9: sort of modify, if they thought he had learned anything,

526
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 9: absolutely not. His Mother's Day message couldn't have been more

527
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 9: different than any Mother's Day message I've ever read or

528
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 9: seen in my life. And you know, I was looking

529
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 9: in the context of Ron de Santis. Ron DeSantis has

530
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 9: this lovely Madison Mason Mami, are lucky to have the

531
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 9: most wonderful mother. Is kind of thing. We love you, mom.

532
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,160
Speaker 9: And then you look at you look at Donald Trump's

533
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:03,679
Speaker 9: no mention, no lanya, his own mother, his own mother, lunatics, maniacs.

534
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 9: You know, it's big caps or make America great again.

535
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 9: So you know, and by the way, on the rob

536
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 9: thing I kept thinking is that, like, what was it kaffifi?

537
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,880
Speaker 9: You know where it's just you know, you can't get

538
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 9: it's head scratching this whole thing. You're not sure what

539
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 9: to make of it, but he certainly gets the headlines

540
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 9: with it.

541
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 2: We need kofefee back. If this campaign is real, we

542
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 2: demand Kofif.

543
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast, catch the

544
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:32,199
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

545
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 1: tune in APF, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app.

546
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

547
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:44,399
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

548
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 2: The big meeting now postponed, of course, set for tomorrow

549
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 2: with President Biden, Speaker McCarthy, and you know whoever else

550
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 2: wants to show up. There's actually questions about maybe the

551
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 2: circle's too big. We need fewer people in here. The

552
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 2: staff met for a few hours over the weekend. Now

553
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 2: it's Biden, McCarthy, Connell, Schumer, Jeffries. You know you need

554
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,679
Speaker 2: the foreheads of Capitol Hill there with the President, though

555
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,919
Speaker 2: they all seem to be pointing at speaking McCarthy as

556
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 2: the guy to negotiate with. And a lot of questions still,

557
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 2: as we were asking last week, what unlocks this thing?

558
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 2: I mean, clawing back COVID money can only go so far.

559
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 2: Is it permitting reform that becomes the catalyst here to

560
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 2: a bigger deal? And that is exactly what Mike Dorning

561
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 2: has been writing about and editing about. Maybe a better

562
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 2: way to put at Bloomberg Politics reporter here with us

563
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,479
Speaker 2: now on Bloomberg Sound, on faster energy, permitting gains traction

564
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,360
Speaker 2: in US debt limit talks. Mike, it's great to see

565
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,239
Speaker 2: you as always, and I wonder if we've put our

566
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,160
Speaker 2: finger on the answer here. What's your thought?

567
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,679
Speaker 14: People think it will be a building block toward a

568
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,439
Speaker 14: potential deal here, and it's something where there's interest in

569
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,639
Speaker 14: both the Republican side and in the White House. The

570
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:56,960
Speaker 14: White House already kind of made a deal with Joe

571
00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 14: Manchin to do this when John Podesta was out last

572
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:05,440
Speaker 14: week talking about the importance of this for clean energy projects.

573
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 14: So there's an idea that, hey, the Republicans can get

574
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 14: this to help them move along some fossil fuel projects,

575
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:17,679
Speaker 14: quicker development there, the White House gets some clean energy

576
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,199
Speaker 14: things they need, you know, easier to get you know,

577
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 14: solar farms permitted, the high voltage lines that they need

578
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 14: to put in to transmit stuff back and forth. And

579
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:31,439
Speaker 14: you can have a deal here that will spin something

580
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 14: forward that the business lobby likes. Now it probably isn't enough,

581
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:38,679
Speaker 14: but it's a potential building block. There's some problems on

582
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 14: the left with environmentalists don't really like this, but it's

583
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 14: a possibility.

584
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,360
Speaker 2: You just said it the way a lot of people

585
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 2: are going to hear it. There was a deal on

586
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 2: permitting reform last year. Does this sort of extend what

587
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 2: was worked on, then.

588
00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 14: The Republicans would like more than what may and God

589
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 14: and they didn't want Mansion to get a win last time.

590
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 14: Partly that was I mean to put it bluntly, sour grapes,

591
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 14: because Mansions deal on this put the Democrats over the

592
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 14: top to get the sort of stripped down version of

593
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,679
Speaker 14: the Biden agenda through Congress, and they didn't want to

594
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 14: reward Mansion for helping get that through. But there are

595
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 14: some actual legitimate policy differences where the Republican version would

596
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 14: go further, and they want to move it more in

597
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 14: that direction.

598
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 2: And so this would allow for more access to permitting

599
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 2: for gas and oil drilling Democrats could win, and pipelines

600
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 2: and pipelines indeed, how do you get it from the

601
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 2: drilling site? But also Democrats want to unlock more permits

602
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 2: for solar and win. Do do they balance each other out?

603
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 7: Well?

604
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 14: Partly, But if you're like someone who's serious about climate change,

605
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 14: a lot of the people who are more serious about

606
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 14: climate chain say, hey, important thing to get move the

607
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 14: climate change agenda forward is to stop so much building

608
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 14: out of fossil fuels and try to tamp down fossil

609
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 14: fuel usage, because that's the whole point of the clean

610
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 14: energy is to reduce the fossil fuel usage. Other people

611
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 14: who have a different view of this, would say, well,

612
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 14: the really important thing is to ramp up the clean energy,

613
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 14: and it's going to take time, so let's let them

614
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 14: do more of the fossil fuel stuff in the meantime.

615
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 2: Can they find both? Can they get both done in

616
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 2: this potential deal?

617
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 14: I mean, I think it's quite possible that it may

618
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 14: not be that all the environmentalists are going to be happy,

619
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,479
Speaker 14: but there's enough will there for the White House and

620
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 14: the Republicans to come together on this issue. It's probably

621
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 14: not enough to get a client a deal on the

622
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 14: debt limit, but it's a building.

623
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 1: Block, got it? Mike?

624
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 2: Thank you. As always, Mike brings us up to date

625
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 2: on a regular basis here on Bloomberg Sound On. We

626
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 2: want to play it to the panel now as we

627
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 2: get ready for the big meeting tomorrow, Rick Davis and

628
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzeno or with us. Garrett Gray, as Republican Congressman

629
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 2: advisor to McCarthy here, tells Bloomberg in this story, chances

630
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 2: are better than fifty to fifty a deal will include

631
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 2: some agreement on an energy permitting overhaul. So is this

632
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 2: the key?

633
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 8: I don't know if it's a Key. I mean, they're

634
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 8: going to have to get the spending caps done right,

635
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 8: and that's i'd say the harder issue. But this is bipartisan,

636
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 8: I mean in the sense that both sides there's something

637
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 8: in it for them, as Garrett described, And I would

638
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 8: say the one person who's most interested in it is

639
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 8: probably Joe Biden, because the last thing he wants is

640
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 8: look like he didn't do anything and then the gas

641
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 8: prices go up next year in the middle of an

642
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 8: election year, and he doesn't have a talking point. Last

643
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 8: year it was, hey, we need more permits to drill

644
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 8: and to transport, and he wasn't gonna let him do that.

645
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 8: This would give him a talking point.

646
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 2: Is this a good direction to go in here? Or

647
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 2: does Joe Biden stand to lose a bunch of progressives

648
00:30:57,760 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 2: along the way, Jennie, You.

649
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 9: Know, I think he will lose some progressive some environmentalists,

650
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 9: but you know they're gonna have to deal. So I

651
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 9: think this would be an important step forward. That said,

652
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 9: you look at all of these things, you know Rick mentioned.

653
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 9: If they get spending caps and they get an agreement there,

654
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 9: but unspent COVID money, permitting reforms, it doesn't sound like,

655
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 9: at just that mini list is enough to get to

656
00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 9: where they need to do it unless you're talking about

657
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 9: Democrats and a few Republicans. Because if they're taking the

658
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 9: IRA off the table, student loan forgiveness, and cuts to

659
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 9: Medicaid food stamps, the Democrats, where they how do they

660
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 9: reach what Republicans need if they're talking non defense discretionary

661
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:39,200
Speaker 9: spending without raising taxes or you know. I mean, so

662
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 9: I'm not sure how them numbers work out at this point,

663
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:43,959
Speaker 9: but of course it's a good start that they're talking

664
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 9: and finding common ground at least in some areas.

665
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 2: If this is the kind of thing that might unlock

666
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 2: a deal that might make Republicans happy. Rick, what does

667
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy have to offer Joe Biden just avoiding a default?

668
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean that's the trigger, right, that's it. We

669
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 8: can actually pass this through and and look, it's a

670
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 8: no brainer. I mean, they're not spending the COVID money.

671
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 8: Biden's already saying, well, if there's stuff laying around, we

672
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 8: might as well give it back, right taxpayer. I mean,

673
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 8: that's not a bad position for him to be in.

674
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 8: And then it's just a it's the same negotiation they're

675
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 8: going to have on the budget anyway, right, I mean,

676
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 8: like how much you know is the is the cap

677
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 8: on on discretionary spending that there's a number there that

678
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 8: they're going to agree to somewhere between six and nine percent.

679
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 8: And then and then they've actually got to jump start

680
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 8: on the budget, which they got to do anyway. So

681
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 8: none of this is actually producing a real problem from

682
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,239
Speaker 8: what I can see, other than the timing. And they

683
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 8: got to get all this done, passed and signed, you know,

684
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 8: in the next couple of weeks, and and the sentence

685
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 8: out on Thursday. So when are they going to get

686
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 8: all this stuff done?

687
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 2: No one has the answer to that right now, Genie.

688
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 2: And that's why this is pretty wild. As we suggested before,

689
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 2: though a deal which sure help the markets a lot,

690
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 2: for a deal to be cut tomorrow before the president

691
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 2: leaves on Wednesday. What's the duration on the death ceiling?

692
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 2: Can the president get a win maybe something even more

693
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 2: than two years or is that just unrealistic?

694
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 9: You know, I think he could, But again, you know,

695
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 9: I think Rick is right, the timing here is really troubling.

696
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 9: But let me just add so is the fact that

697
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 9: McCarthy can't lose the more than four Republicans, and I'm

698
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 9: still not sure how the numbers work. And he doesn't

699
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 9: lose more than four unless he really is able to

700
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 9: arm wrestle them, and we haven't really seen that happen yet.

701
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 2: Anybody done a wellness check on George Santos lately? Anyone?

702
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 1: Anyone?

703
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 2: Rick and Jennie come back with some final thoughts here

704
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 2: on potentially eliminating the debt ceiling. There is a bill

705
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 2: on that they don't have to write it, even it's

706
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 2: sitting there in the sentence, I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

707
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

708
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

709
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

710
00:33:57,200 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

711
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 2: Well, God knows that markets have been reacting to this

712
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 2: whole debt ceiling conversation we've been having for weeks and

713
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 2: with no deal in sight. Kaylee, it's interesting to see

714
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,400
Speaker 2: how certain corners of the market behave. You might have

715
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:15,839
Speaker 2: seen Michael Wilson Morgan Stanley this morning calling for more

716
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:19,319
Speaker 2: volatility as this is sorted out. I think maybe we

717
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 2: can actually say I realized the markets are higher today,

718
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 2: but not by a lot with some credibility this week

719
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:26,759
Speaker 2: that Wall Street is paying attention out.

720
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 11: Yeah, and it's the stock market awakening we have been

721
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 11: reading for right. We already are seeing it in the

722
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 11: bond market in those short term tea bills. They have

723
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:37,799
Speaker 11: always really been paying attention because that's actually paper that

724
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 11: matures when potentially the Treasury isn't going to be able

725
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,280
Speaker 11: to pay its bills. But the market also, of course,

726
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:46,840
Speaker 11: is as always very headline oriented, clinging to each and

727
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:48,799
Speaker 11: every headline, and right now the headline's coming out of

728
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:52,320
Speaker 11: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Don't feel like they're super positive

729
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:56,120
Speaker 11: for any asset. Really, he's saying to reporters he feels

730
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 11: like debt limit meetings are not productive at all. They

731
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 11: are nowhere near reaching a conclusion and there's no agreement

732
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:04,720
Speaker 11: on anything great.

733
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 2: And that's how we're starting off this week on a Monday.

734
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 2: So we're going to talk to Terry Haynes from Pangaea

735
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 2: Policy in just a moment, but a really interesting conversation. Now,

736
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 2: this is something that we do at Bloomberg. The market's

737
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 2: live Pulse survey. We're asking people, you know, what's the

738
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 2: best hideout during this time? And Kasha Klimashinska, who is

739
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 2: our colleague here in the Washington DC Bureau, runs that

740
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 2: survey and joins us now in her debut on sound

741
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 2: On Kasha, it's great to see you. Thanks for coming in.

742
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 15: Hello, thank you for having me.

743
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 2: Aren't you sorry? You raised your hand? So this is

744
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:40,280
Speaker 2: fascinating to me. What will rally if the US defaults

745
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 2: is essentially what we're talking about here. What'd you find exactly?

746
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:46,760
Speaker 15: So if the US indeed hits that that ceiling, then

747
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 15: investors say.

748
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 2: By gold it is the number one.

749
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 15: That's right, and then the number two is guess what

750
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:55,800
Speaker 15: the US treasury?

751
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 11: So backwards, Yes, the.

752
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:00,799
Speaker 15: Security that the US would have hold on, people say

753
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 15: by the long term, the tenure treasuries, they might be

754
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:05,320
Speaker 15: a good bed.

755
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 2: Okay, which I guess it means you can see across

756
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:10,920
Speaker 2: the valley there. But Kaylee's that's the very paper that

757
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 2: would be at risk, isn't it.

758
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 11: Well, it is, especially the maturities that would not be

759
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:19,439
Speaker 11: paid in the actual time under which the Treasury would

760
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 11: be operating or not being able to fulfill its obligations

761
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 11: in theory that doesn't last for very long, which is

762
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:26,880
Speaker 11: maybe why you can buy the longer term treasuries and

763
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:28,839
Speaker 11: you still have that full faith and credit. But yeah,

764
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:32,400
Speaker 11: it feels very very backwards. And of course after golden

765
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:35,439
Speaker 11: treasury is Kasha, yes, bitcoin, Yeah, that's right.

766
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,840
Speaker 15: So bitcoin comes ahead of what we think as the

767
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 15: safe haven currencies such as the US dollar, yeah, and

768
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 15: the Swiss franc. So interestingly, as this crowd that we

769
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:49,879
Speaker 15: hold and these are mostly professional investors, people who you.

770
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:51,880
Speaker 11: Know, let's make institutional not retail.

771
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:55,360
Speaker 15: They say, look at bitcoin at this specific moment, it

772
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:56,399
Speaker 15: might be a good bed.

773
00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 1: Wow.

774
00:36:57,680 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 2: So this is you Look, you're the cost of the crypto.

775
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 2: Kayley is singing your song here or someone's song as

776
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:04,840
Speaker 2: a store of value.

777
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 11: Right, yeah, Well, and this is what we've been hearing

778
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 11: a lot from the crypto community, if you will, is

779
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 11: that the US potentially defaulting on its debt in addition

780
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 11: to traditional banks failing over the course of the last

781
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 11: several months. This case and point for why you would

782
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 11: want to be in a decentralized system have custody of

783
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 11: something like bitcoin, which you can self custody. So it

784
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:26,320
Speaker 11: kind of makes the point. In addition to asking investors

785
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 11: you know what they would want to hold in case

786
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 11: of a default, I also thought it was noteworthy that

787
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 11: sixty percent of respondents said the risks are bigger this

788
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:35,760
Speaker 11: time around than in twenty eleven.

789
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 15: That's right, right, So then was the worst case to day.

790
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 15: To remember that the US didn't default back then. Back then,

791
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 15: but we did lose our triple A rating from one

792
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:49,280
Speaker 15: of the rating agencies, and so of course stock markets

793
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 15: suffered a lot. And so people, yes, the professional investors especially,

794
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:56,800
Speaker 15: I think this time it's worse. It's more risky, of course,

795
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:59,239
Speaker 15: in part of what we see out of DC, the

796
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 15: much more divided political scene.

797
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:05,839
Speaker 2: Here find the story and it's easy to do. What's

798
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:08,840
Speaker 2: ex what's the fastest way to get to the survey

799
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 2: on the terminal?

800
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 15: You just type and I am Life Pulse. So it's

801
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 15: Marcus Life Pulse survey.

802
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 2: M Live Pulse on your terminal. Kasha, great to see you,

803
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 2: Thank you, Kasha Klimashinska. I could just say that all day.

804
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 2: It just rolls off the tonguel as we bring in

805
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:26,839
Speaker 2: Terry Haines, the founder of Pangaea Policy. On this Terry,

806
00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 2: you buy in bitcoin or.

807
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 7: What I try. I try to stay away for anything

808
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 7: controversial shows.

809
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 2: Well oh good, okay, this conversation is officially over. What's

810
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 2: on your what's on your mind today, Terry? The big

811
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 2: meeting tomorrow and everyone's acting like a tough guy in

812
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:41,880
Speaker 2: front of the media.

813
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 7: Well yeah, I just look, I've said this morning in

814
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 7: a note that I wanted markets to know that there

815
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 7: wasn't going to be a dead ceiling deal this week.

816
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 7: And you know, I think that's largely markets negative. I

817
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 7: think there's a lot there's a lot of people that

818
00:38:57,000 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 7: are busily trying to convince themselves that progress is being

819
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 7: made and uh, and some people will want want the

820
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,359
Speaker 7: illusion of progress and some people don't in a negotiation,

821
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 7: that's that's part of negotiations, you know, as we all know.

822
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 7: But the you know, that's going to confuse markets, I

823
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 7: think a little bit, because what you're going to have

824
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 7: is you're going to have you know, Biden or Leale,

825
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 7: Brainerd or somebody kind of playing footsie around with it.

826
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 7: You know, things are actually going well, and then you're

827
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:26,360
Speaker 7: going to have speaker McCarthy, as he did in the

828
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 7: last hour, say well, actually not there's you know, I

829
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 7: don't see anything new here, you know, in my own

830
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:35,839
Speaker 7: I'll wrap by saying this, the you know, the we

831
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 7: we may be having negotiations, but there until there is

832
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:43,399
Speaker 7: a situation where Biden and the congressional leaders on both

833
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 7: sides are understand and agree on what the parameters are

834
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 7: for what they're trying to do and a general framework,

835
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 7: there aren't negotiations. Staff work is no substitute for negotiations.

836
00:39:56,239 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 7: And uh and it's a it's a mistake to that

837
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 7: a bunch of staff meeting in a room means there's

838
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 7: progress here.

839
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 11: Well, according to Kevin McCarthy, there is not much progress.

840
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 11: He says they're nowhere near reaching a conclusion. The meetings

841
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:14,600
Speaker 11: have not been productive. There's no agreement on anything. So terry,

842
00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:17,280
Speaker 11: if a deal doesn't come this week, then the President

843
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 11: heads off to Japan. The Senate and theory goes on

844
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 11: recess through the Memorial Day holiday. When is there time

845
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 11: to actually do a deal? How high do you think

846
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 11: the odds are in this moment that no deal gets done?

847
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 7: Well, where I've been for a bet the last week

848
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 7: is and I increased my odds slightly, I decrease my

849
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 7: odds slightly. My base case is a sixty percent a

850
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 7: deal gets done and forty percent that it doesn't. And

851
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 7: that's today, and that's you know, there's this is going

852
00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:45,879
Speaker 7: to be a lot of all political volatility here, and

853
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 7: you know, my analysis of this will change as the

854
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 7: facts change, but you know, for the next week or so,

855
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 7: what we have is we have a larger a larger

856
00:40:56,080 --> 00:41:01,319
Speaker 7: possibility of a catastrophic mistake than you know, certainly the

857
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 7: markets want. And what you have is you've got a

858
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:09,959
Speaker 7: situation where you know the President won't meaningfully negotiate after

859
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 7: Tuesday's meeting because, as you point out, he'll be in

860
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:16,719
Speaker 7: Japan and potentially a couple of other places. And you've

861
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:19,320
Speaker 7: got a situation where congressional leaders can be around a

862
00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 7: table at a moment's notice, but they're going to have

863
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:23,880
Speaker 7: to call the House and the Senate back in to

864
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:26,360
Speaker 7: do a deal. And there's a ton of mechanics that

865
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 7: are associated with this. Just because the five of them

866
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:31,920
Speaker 7: agree doesn't mean the deal gets done. They've got to

867
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 7: go sell it to both parties, and you know that's

868
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 7: going to take a little bit of time. So you know,

869
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:39,040
Speaker 7: we're we are kind of bumping right up against it

870
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 7: in a political sense, although markets think there's a lot

871
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 7: of time left.

872
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 2: Terry, do they need to have at least the framework

873
00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 2: of an agreement before the president leaves on Wednesday? How

874
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 2: crucial is tomorrow's meeting.

875
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:52,879
Speaker 7: I think tomorrow's meeting is important. I don't think it's crucial, though,

876
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 7: I wouldn't look at you know, I don't look at

877
00:41:56,719 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 7: tomorrow's meeting as being a success in market terms anyway.

878
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 7: But that said, because I don't think they get a

879
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:06,360
Speaker 7: framework or anything like that. But that said, But that said,

880
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 7: I mean, I think what you what you have is

881
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 7: you'll you'll have more job owning over the next several days,

882
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 7: and people will start to get closer, and then I

883
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:15,280
Speaker 7: think the week after you're probably going to see.

884
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 11: Some progress on the subject of markets, Terry, how much

885
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:21,280
Speaker 11: do they play a role in this? Because the markets

886
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 11: aren't totally falling out of bed freaking out yet, which

887
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 11: in theory takes some pressure off the negotiators.

888
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:31,600
Speaker 7: Right, yeah, exactly. That's that's well said. The markets always

889
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 7: think everything is about markets, and that's you know, that's

890
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 7: a very human sort of reaction. I will tell you

891
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 7: that the markets play a much, a much less important

892
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:47,880
Speaker 7: part in the day to day of these negotiations. Everybody

893
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 7: understands what the stakes are, everybody understands what the ultimate

894
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 7: problem is. But the ups and downs of markets on

895
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:57,640
Speaker 7: a day to day basis, uh, you know, the none

896
00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:00,439
Speaker 7: of these negotiators particularly care about that. I know there's

897
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 7: gonna be fluctuations of volatility, they get that, but they

898
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:10,240
Speaker 7: long ago, they long ago all agreed to a process themselves.

899
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:13,359
Speaker 7: I mean the process that you know, they were going

900
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:16,279
Speaker 7: to try to get whatever political advantage they can out

901
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:19,359
Speaker 7: of this process, and that you know that's increasingly going

902
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:22,880
Speaker 7: to discomfit markets. But you know, as long as they

903
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:24,839
Speaker 7: think they can get political advantage out of it, they'll

904
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:27,920
Speaker 7: continue to kick the can around before they get serious.

905
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 2: You need to come and sit down with us in

906
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 2: person one of these Terry, we're gonna kick the can

907
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 2: around here together.

908
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:33,240
Speaker 1: In the studio.

909
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:34,800
Speaker 7: I'd be honored.

910
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 2: I will. Let's let's make it happen because we're running

911
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:40,280
Speaker 2: out of Dacey here. Terry Haynes always brings the wisdom

912
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 2: the founder of Pangaea policy, and I would like to

913
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:44,360
Speaker 2: take a deep dive of Kaylee with Terry on this stuff,

914
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 2: because we're not going to imagine what a why I

915
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 2: have a deal by next Monday, and we need to

916
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 2: we need to continue that conversation, if not finish it.

917
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 11: Yeah, absolutely, especially as Terry says, there is a forty

918
00:43:55,680 --> 00:44:00,239
Speaker 11: percent chance of this going in the bad way here, Joe,

919
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:04,360
Speaker 11: and those odds are probably uncomfortably high for basically everyone

920
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:07,240
Speaker 11: involved in these golfers survey. Yeah, exactly.

921
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:17,240
Speaker 2: Bitcoin treasuries, yep, in no particular order. Thanks for listening

922
00:44:17,239 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 2: to the Sound On podcast. Make sure to subscribe if

923
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:22,400
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924
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every

925
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 2: weekday from Washington, d C. At one pm Eastern Time

926
00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:30,280
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.