Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Speaker 1: Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the
Speaker 1: latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,
Speaker 1: all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors.
Speaker 1: And of course Carol that's part of a team of
Speaker 1: twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred
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Speaker 1: also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern
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Speaker 1: by searching Bloomberg Global News. Let's get right into the
Speaker 1: Business Week agenda. Now, as Charlie mentioned, we have a
Speaker 1: lot to talk about. Jina Martin Adams is with this,
Speaker 1: chief equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, joining us on the
Speaker 1: phone from New Jersey. Also in New Jersey is where
Speaker 1: we find Dave Wilson, stocks editor for Bloomberg. He is
Speaker 1: there in the Garden State. So Dave give us the
Speaker 1: brief contours of this market. We heard some of the
Speaker 1: top line numbers from Charlie, what do we need to
Speaker 1: know about this? Trade? Technology stocks holding up relatively well
Speaker 1: on the broader market not so much. I mean, Charlie
Speaker 1: didn't talk about airlines, so I will. I mean, you
Speaker 1: got United to the leading of decline in the group,
Speaker 1: you know, warning employees that what's happening with the coronavirus
Speaker 1: in the South and West is going to be an
Speaker 1: issue in terms of people getting on planes. Uh. The
Speaker 1: airline said it seen dropping bookings, especially in Newark, New Jersey,
Speaker 1: just up the road from yours, truly, So you know,
Speaker 1: you've got United shares at the moment the worst performers
Speaker 1: in the SMP five hundred down more than six percent.
Speaker 1: And you see the other carriers going along for the ride,
Speaker 1: American Delta and Southwest all lower here, So you know
Speaker 1: that's a concern, you know. On the other hand, I
Speaker 1: mean you see as some stories related to the coronavirus
Speaker 1: in terms of UH, potential vaccines that are really getting attention. UH.
Speaker 1: Front and center in that score is Novavax starts up
Speaker 1: thirty five percent after where the company got a billion
Speaker 1: six from the US government to develop it's a prob
Speaker 1: nineteen vaccine, so that that definitely gets your attention. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that definitely gets a stock moving. Let's bring in Gina
Speaker 1: because Gina I feel like things that might get the
Speaker 1: markets moving, maybe in a good way, maybe in a
Speaker 1: bad way, depends on how the earning season comes out.
Speaker 1: We've got to get ready for earnings again. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: totally agree that earnings is a potential catalyst for stocks.
Speaker 1: In addition to potential policy changes coming at the end
Speaker 1: of July in the form of maybe another fiscal package
Speaker 1: or at least an extension of unemployment benefits. UM, the
Speaker 1: earning season is absolutely top of mind for US as
Speaker 1: the next potential catalyst for stocks. You know, I will
Speaker 1: say this, it's hard to get much lower in terms
Speaker 1: of expectations. Analysts are forecasting a drop in earnings on
Speaker 1: a year ago basis, which is just an extraordinary decline
Speaker 1: in history. I don't think you'd find a single quarter
Speaker 1: in which we've seen such an extended, extensive decline. UM. Nonetheless,
Speaker 1: US uh that that low bar should make for a
Speaker 1: relatively easy beat. The question is whether or not beating
Speaker 1: such a low bar will be enough for stock prices,
Speaker 1: and I happen to think that it may not be enough.
Speaker 1: What you actually probably need to see is also a
Speaker 1: little bit of visibility emerge from company management and with
Speaker 1: respect to the outlook. Uh, you know, one of the
Speaker 1: most devastating impacts of the first quarter with companies just
Speaker 1: absolutely splashed all guidance and just that we're not even
Speaker 1: going to tell you anything because we don't know anything.
Speaker 1: So to the extent that some of these cyclically oriented companies,
Speaker 1: some of the high volatility type of stocks, can come
Speaker 1: out with some commentary to suggest that hey, maybe we
Speaker 1: will survive. We have enough liquidity to get through the
Speaker 1: next couple of quarters, and we'll move into one and
Speaker 1: things will start to look better. That could be really
Speaker 1: positive for the equity market. Well, and Gina to to
Speaker 1: that exact point, I mean, you start to wonder whether
Speaker 1: some CEOs are going to want to start to differentiate
Speaker 1: themselves right to say, look, we've made the right moves,
Speaker 1: or we have the right liquidity, We've tapped the right sources.
Speaker 1: Because I think this is just my opinion that investors
Speaker 1: are gonna maybe not put up much longer with this
Speaker 1: idea of like, yeah, we just don't know what's going
Speaker 1: to happen. It's like, well, yeah, well we don't know
Speaker 1: what's going to happen, but it's kind of your job
Speaker 1: to tell us what you think is going to happen, right, Yeah, exactly,
Speaker 1: And I think that the smart managements will actually take
Speaker 1: the opportunity to kitchen sink as much as they can
Speaker 1: in the second quarter. So you know, you've got a
Speaker 1: lot of potential volatility with Yeah, maybe things weren't as
Speaker 1: bad as we thought, but hey, we can take the
Speaker 1: opportunity to take this charge and kind of move past
Speaker 1: the second quarter. Everybody's expecting so much weakness anyway, things
Speaker 1: will inevitably get better in the second half. Well, now
Speaker 1: maybe we can disclose just how much better they think,
Speaker 1: you know, we think they'll get. And even if companies
Speaker 1: are saying, you know, we're not anticipating a huge improvement
Speaker 1: in economic growth, well okay, but you are anticipating at
Speaker 1: least some improvement right relative to second quarter. We know
Speaker 1: that second quarter was when all the shutdowns happen, were
Speaker 1: no longer completely shut down. What does your reality look
Speaker 1: like in a not completely shut down a outomy and
Speaker 1: can we extrapolate that out into the future. So I
Speaker 1: do think the expectations bar is very different, right, And
Speaker 1: I think in that expectation is really about more than anything, right,
Speaker 1: And I think it's fair to ask CEOs because they've
Speaker 1: got to make decisions whether they need money, whether they
Speaker 1: need to let go workers. So they've got to be
Speaker 1: having some kind of forecasting going on because they've got
Speaker 1: to make decisions. So well, absolutely, and even for the
Speaker 1: companies that are really strong, what are you doing with
Speaker 1: all that cash? Because one of the interesting things that
Speaker 1: happened in the first quarter is cash stores built tremendously.
Speaker 1: We talk a lot about cash flow declines, but cash
Speaker 1: stores also built up. What are you going to do
Speaker 1: with that going forward is a huge question that nobody's
Speaker 1: talking about. All right, Gina Martin Adams, thank you so much,
Speaker 1: Chief Equity Status of course for Bloomberg Intelligence. This is
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Well, this is one of those rub your
Speaker 1: hands together interviews, Carroll, because I'm so excited to catch
Speaker 1: up again with Craig Gordon Washington Burr, chief executive editor
Speaker 1: for Bloomberg, join us on the phone from the nation's
Speaker 1: capital and its environs. So, Craig, I am tempted to
Speaker 1: just talk about YouTube radio and the return to serious
Speaker 1: XM that both you and I are so happy about.
Speaker 1: But we have other business to discuss, and I guess
Speaker 1: I would start by asking you, as you look across
Speaker 1: all that your reporters are working on, all the inputs
Speaker 1: you're getting, what's the most important story in Washington right now?
Speaker 1: I think the most important story right now actually is
Speaker 1: Donald Trump's um handling of the current situation regarding things
Speaker 1: like the Confederate flag and some of these racial issues. Obviously, uh,
Speaker 1: there's the simulus, there's the virus. There's a lot going on.
Speaker 1: But we are seeing a real window into Trump's psyche
Speaker 1: um as he starts to look at the same phone
Speaker 1: numbers we're looking at that showed him kind of uh,
Speaker 1: you know, blinking red across the board. Most of the
Speaker 1: swing states right now suggested to be going to biden
Speaker 1: the country right track wrong track number, which is one
Speaker 1: of the main numbers that people look at, you know,
Speaker 1: in terms of President's prospects and re election, are all
Speaker 1: going the arrows are all in the wrong direction for Trump,
Speaker 1: and instead of you know, finding a message to try
Speaker 1: to either unite the country during COVID or Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: some of the some of the racial here and healing
Speaker 1: that might be availed to him, he's actually going in
Speaker 1: the complete opposite direction. He talked, he talked again this
Speaker 1: morning a little bit about the Confederate flag. That was
Speaker 1: a tweet from yesterday. Actually he said, Kelly and Conway
Speaker 1: out to defend his comments on that. Um, obviously we
Speaker 1: all saw the speeches from Friday and Saturday night where
Speaker 1: he's standing him out rushmore a real chance again to
Speaker 1: kind of try to have some unifying words, you know,
Speaker 1: standing under the visages of our our greatest presidents, and
Speaker 1: really went went pretty pretty negative. So I think a
Speaker 1: lot of times with Trump, what you see is what
Speaker 1: you get. Um, he's not a man who has a
Speaker 1: pretty good has a very good poker face. And I
Speaker 1: think he's worried about losing. And I think the more
Speaker 1: he's worried about losing, he's gonna start lashing out in
Speaker 1: these you know, and he's frankly pretty ugly ways. Uh,
Speaker 1: as he tries to keep Joe Biden down, does he
Speaker 1: not want to be president? Oh? You know, I won't
Speaker 1: put him on cosh quite that far. That's always done.
Speaker 1: The question right now a surprised than Donald Trump on election. UM,
Speaker 1: but he definitely I feel like, you know, he's he's
Speaker 1: a politician who kind of one with sort of one
Speaker 1: good trick, and that trick was Muslim ban it was
Speaker 1: the wall, it was us versus them. It was sort of,
Speaker 1: you know, speaking to the so called downtrodden Americans and
Speaker 1: kind of stoking some of those darker impulses in the
Speaker 1: American psyche. I think that's how he got to be
Speaker 1: the president the first time he's the president. Now, a
Speaker 1: president has a lot of tools at their disposal. There
Speaker 1: could be virus things, or against some of the racial hearing,
Speaker 1: even just economic economic message I'm gonna bring the economy back,
Speaker 1: which he sort of says a lot but doesn't do much. UM.
Speaker 1: And instead he's kind of going back to that one
Speaker 1: trick over and over. And I would expectfully argue, even
Speaker 1: perhaps in an even slightly darker way. UM. The problem
Speaker 1: for Trump is a lot of the country's not really
Speaker 1: with him. I mean, you know, he won by this
Speaker 1: limits of majorities. Wasn't even a majority plurality last time. UM.
Speaker 1: And even some of those people are scared about the virus.
Speaker 1: They don't like the way things are going with the economy.
Speaker 1: We know the seniors who were pretty strong for him
Speaker 1: in are kind of starting to drift away. And so,
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, we all know Donald Trump's advisors
Speaker 1: have a pretty poor record of getting them to change
Speaker 1: his ways. But boy, this does not feel like he's
Speaker 1: playing a winning hand right now. And yet he keeps
Speaker 1: doubling down and doubling down and doubling down. Well, Craig,
Speaker 1: you know, we just have a headline crossing the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: about California seeing six thousand nine virus cases versus about
Speaker 1: sixty for the fourteen day average. You know, we constantly
Speaker 1: are watching these virus headlines and a lot of states
Speaker 1: that are very important to the president. You know, we're
Speaker 1: seeing cases spike in, the problem getting bigger and bigger.
Speaker 1: How problematic is his handling of the virus ultimately to
Speaker 1: him come November? Yeah, and this to me is a
Speaker 1: but it was sort of the mystery of it. We
Speaker 1: had a trific story up by Gray recording of Mike
Speaker 1: Dorning just yesterday on the Bloomberg terminal talking about how
Speaker 1: in the in the very states where the cases are up,
Speaker 1: Trump's numbers are down. It's almost like a one to
Speaker 1: one correlation, where the cases are up, the numbers are down.
Speaker 1: This is in blue states like California, what you mentioned,
Speaker 1: New York, New Jersey, which obviously had his share of problems.
Speaker 1: This is Florida, This is Aaron's owner. This is places
Speaker 1: he won and and really needs to win again, um
Speaker 1: if he has any chance of all of getting back
Speaker 1: into the White House. So again, it does seem to
Speaker 1: sort of even run counter to that. These are his voters,
Speaker 1: these are his states, this is Trump country, and they
Speaker 1: are suffering right now with the virus, and yet they
Speaker 1: look to the White House, they look to the president
Speaker 1: and they're really I mean, Trump almost barely mentions the
Speaker 1: virus anymore. Obviously we went from the extreme of those
Speaker 1: nightly two and three hour long briefings too. Now he
Speaker 1: barely will say the word, you know, v I R U,
Speaker 1: s UM, and I'm sorry. I think some of the
Speaker 1: voters in those places, again, maybe they don't want to
Speaker 1: wear a mask, and maybe they wish they could go
Speaker 1: back to the barn. Whatever people are feeling right now,
Speaker 1: we're all little anty. I'm in week seventeen or work
Speaker 1: from home. You know, I feel their pain, but I
Speaker 1: do think they're looking to the White House and looking
Speaker 1: to the leader of the country for some answers to
Speaker 1: help their states and their friends and neighbors, and they're
Speaker 1: seeing nothing. And that's a problem for Trump well and Craig.
Speaker 1: It's also interesting to see a shift in tone, it
Speaker 1: feels like, over the last week from whether it's Mitch
Speaker 1: McConnell or even Vice President Pence saying where a mask?
Speaker 1: I mean, it sounds so ridiculous to point that out.
Speaker 1: And at the same time it's notable that, yeah, we
Speaker 1: we have spreading the work right now on pensis comments
Speaker 1: because I picked up a little bit on that, just
Speaker 1: as you did over the weekend, that even Mike Pence
Speaker 1: is the loyalist. Loyalist obviously carried a lot of water
Speaker 1: for this president. Is is kind of, ever so slightly
Speaker 1: edging away from him on the question of a mask,
Speaker 1: and it's okay to wear a mask. He and Mitch
Speaker 1: McConnell no one's idea of flaming liberal is out there
Speaker 1: saying the same thing. So right, It's like, that's what
Speaker 1: strikes me, and I think that we made me answer
Speaker 1: your question the way I did at the top the
Speaker 1: top here what's the most important thing. It's both the
Speaker 1: Trump is doubling Donna what feels to me, and I
Speaker 1: think the poll suggests kind of a losing message, but
Speaker 1: he's starting to lose his loyalist when Mike Pence is
Speaker 1: starting to talk a little differently in the Donald Trump boy,
Speaker 1: that's that's a pretty notable day, Mitch McConnell, some of
Speaker 1: these other folks, and that's where the trouble really is
Speaker 1: right now for President Trump. So, Craig, we've got a
Speaker 1: new tell all book from a Trump insider. What do
Speaker 1: we know about this book? So right? This is this
Speaker 1: just got about today or is being released today. Eric Larson,
Speaker 1: one of our legal team reporters, managed to get his
Speaker 1: hands on it, so good for him. This is Mary
Speaker 1: Trump is the President Trump's niece, so she got to
Speaker 1: see a lot of up close and personal. Uh. The
Speaker 1: interaction mostly between the book seems to center fork a
Speaker 1: lot on the interaction between Trump and his father, obviously
Speaker 1: a queen's um real estate developer, just like the President
Speaker 1: turned into um. And really it's it's hard to read um.
Speaker 1: Obviously we all feel everybody always feel like you know
Speaker 1: the president a little bit, you know, just because you
Speaker 1: see the person so often. But boy, you're getting a
Speaker 1: very ugly, um look inside the family dynamic here where
Speaker 1: Fred Trump his father just drove Donald very hard. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, she accuses them essentially withholding his love and
Speaker 1: support and turning turning Donald Trump. One of the ones
Speaker 1: that left out of me was she's a she herself
Speaker 1: as a clinical syche top collegist, so she's not just
Speaker 1: you know, sort of an armchair person here assarch that
Speaker 1: her uncle has all nine clinical criteria for being a narcissist.
Speaker 1: So um, for anyone who might have thought that about
Speaker 1: the president, Uh, there's a clinical psychologist who got to
Speaker 1: live with them, you know, off and on for many
Speaker 1: many years making that same diagnosis. It's pretty it's pretty
Speaker 1: chilling stuff. And even the idea and this sits a
Speaker 1: little uh in the in the zeitgeist right now, this
Speaker 1: notion that he paid someone to take the s a
Speaker 1: t for I mean, all these things just you know,
Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a drip, drip drip that
Speaker 1: turns into something more than that. It feels like, yeah,
Speaker 1: that's how I tend to view these books, Like, I'm
Speaker 1: not sure how many people sort of sit and read
Speaker 1: the whole canon of Donald Trump from you know, the
Speaker 1: Woodward's first book all the way up to Bolton and
Speaker 1: now and now this book. But I do think they
Speaker 1: tend to, like you say, little details of them sort
Speaker 1: of break through the zeitgeist. In this case, maybe as
Speaker 1: he paid someone to take the s A T and
Speaker 1: to get into Warden, which he's bragged about almost every
Speaker 1: day of his life since. Then with the Bolton book,
Speaker 1: I think it was you know that he had asked uh,
Speaker 1: the Chinese president g to buy a bunch of agricultural
Speaker 1: products to help and get reelected. You know, again, a
Speaker 1: very sort of picture of a president literally bartering his
Speaker 1: own re election with the leader of a of a
Speaker 1: country that is certainly no friend of the United States,
Speaker 1: certainly arrival UM. So So I don't know that they
Speaker 1: you know, like again, you have to read the whole
Speaker 1: library of them to form an opinion about Trump, but
Speaker 1: the little pieces that come out, it's another brick on
Speaker 1: the pile for people who again are already looking at
Speaker 1: the president with questions about UM. I think that I
Speaker 1: think the virus specifically damaging to Donald Trump in this way,
Speaker 1: and that UM presidents expected of Americans expect the presidence
Speaker 1: to be sort of empathetic. You know, Clinton got became
Speaker 1: a little bit of a punchline. You know, I feel
Speaker 1: you're paying, but I do think that's what Americans look
Speaker 1: to the presidents to do at a time of a
Speaker 1: national crisis or a disaster, uh in Clint's case, the
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City bombing, you know, more recently obviously for Trump,
Speaker 1: the virus. I think you could put right. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think we all remember those images and that video
Speaker 1: of George W. Bush at Ground zero, perfect example, and
Speaker 1: and that is that moment when the president becomes bigger
Speaker 1: than the person, bigger than the job, becomes a national
Speaker 1: you know, figure, a national healer and national consoler. And
Speaker 1: I think you could take every word Donald Trump said
Speaker 1: and sympath need to people who call COVID and put
Speaker 1: it on a single page. I mean, I remember watching
Speaker 1: those briefings and just being struck, night after night ter
Speaker 1: night of how he just even the most cursory, sort
Speaker 1: of perfunctory words of sympathy or empathy or concern almost
Speaker 1: did not pass his lips. And again, I guess if
Speaker 1: if Mary Trump were here, she tells he's he's a narcissist.
Speaker 1: So that's you know, that's they tend to only see
Speaker 1: themselves and not the rest of the world. But I
Speaker 1: really do think the virus in that way exposed Trump
Speaker 1: just in a really sort of brutal way that the
Speaker 1: person that he is. You know, again, sometimes you want
Speaker 1: the president to be a tough guy and different things. Well,
Speaker 1: I think right now people are looking for a little
Speaker 1: bit of empathy, a little bit of human compassion. They're
Speaker 1: not finding it in Donald Trump. Yeah, considering that, you know,
Speaker 1: the nation has been in lockdown and everybody kind of
Speaker 1: experiencing all of this together, you certainly probably can make
Speaker 1: the case for saying you want a president who understands
Speaker 1: that if you put it all together, though, it takes
Speaker 1: me craig to another story that's among the most read
Speaker 1: by Jonathan Bernstein about um, oh, not that one. I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: it's another story, but it talks about Nick Wadham about
Speaker 1: the pandemic response turning America first into America lest I
Speaker 1: do wonder how if you add all of this up,
Speaker 1: what it does for the United States on a global state. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that was I'm really proud of that story. In the
Speaker 1: State Department reporter and he um, he kind of he
Speaker 1: kind of observed, you know, again, Trump came to office
Speaker 1: on a travel band keeping on some of the Muslim nations. Well,
Speaker 1: now the US is so the subject of a travel
Speaker 1: band of sorts. The youth says Americans can't travel there
Speaker 1: because of our high rates of the virus. And he
Speaker 1: kind of goes to the story and lay that all
Speaker 1: the examples of how again a time of a global crisis,
Speaker 1: the United States often to be the leader, sort of
Speaker 1: pulling the rest of the world along and something. In
Speaker 1: this case, we're kind of the laggered um and people
Speaker 1: are you know, the suspicion of Trump grows ever deeper.
Speaker 1: I think this is actually an issue that would happen
Speaker 1: even if Joe Biden gets elected, that the world has
Speaker 1: learned we were, you know, they're always just one election
Speaker 1: away from the United States turning inward in the way
Speaker 1: that Donald Trump did, and Joe Biden would try to
Speaker 1: reverse that. But I don't think feeling way quickly, Greg
Speaker 1: got to leave it there, unfortunately. Great to catch up
Speaker 1: to the u DC Bureau Chief and Executive Vedor Craig Gordon.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason
Speaker 1: Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Now we Jason have turned to
Speaker 1: her before to hear about her firsthand experiences of dealing
Speaker 1: with COVID nineteen. Her stories have been featured in the magazine.
Speaker 1: Back with Us is Bloomberg News Financial Investigations Senior writer
Speaker 1: Stephanie Baker. She's joining us once again on the phone
Speaker 1: from London, and she has taken several antibody tests before
Speaker 1: she could trust the results. So let's get into her
Speaker 1: experience here. Stephanie, is good to have you back with us.
Speaker 1: Tell us about this latest story. You had five antibody
Speaker 1: tests that you've taken before you could really kind of
Speaker 1: trust the results, right, that's right. UM. A couple of
Speaker 1: months ago, I took four antibody tests a finger prick
Speaker 1: antibody tests that were on the market at the time
Speaker 1: that many people had questioned their reliability, UM, and I
Speaker 1: got conflicting results. I got two positives and two negatives
Speaker 1: and sort of gave up, even though I had cross
Speaker 1: checked them with various other doctors and nurses who had
Speaker 1: tested positive for COVID. So I was left a bit
Speaker 1: confused about my status. When UM, some of the newer
Speaker 1: tests came out that are based on an intravenous blood
Speaker 1: draw UM. They appear to be more accurate and more sensitive.
Speaker 1: So I finally got around to taking one of these tests,
Speaker 1: the Abbot tests, which is does have some pretty good
Speaker 1: data behind it, and I wasn't depositive, and I was
Speaker 1: somewhat relieved that I figured I have three positives versus
Speaker 1: two negatives, and one of the positives seems to be
Speaker 1: more reliable and has some pretty hard science behind it.
Speaker 1: So having studied this, Stephanie, I have to ask you,
Speaker 1: why is this so hard? I I agree it shouldn't
Speaker 1: be this hard, and I think it's hard because we
Speaker 1: are still learning so much about this virus UM. You know.
Speaker 1: I think some of the tests were trying to figure
Speaker 1: out what is the best way to go about UM,
Speaker 1: you know, finding the most effective antibodies, you know, is
Speaker 1: it against the spike protein or is against the nucleo
Speaker 1: capsid which is another kind of antibody that the COVID
Speaker 1: nineteen generates UM. And I think there was a lot
Speaker 1: of time wasted on these finger protests, which some of
Speaker 1: them can be good and reliable, but they're just not
Speaker 1: as sensitive as the intravenous blood draw. The blood draw
Speaker 1: is a hard thing to roll out on a mass scale.
Speaker 1: It's more expensive, it's more time consuming, um, you know,
Speaker 1: but the data seems to indicate that this is the
Speaker 1: better approach. We still don't know what it means to
Speaker 1: have antibodies, and I think that's the biggest problem. There's
Speaker 1: indications that it does provide some protection, we don't know
Speaker 1: how long that lasts, um, And I think that's the
Speaker 1: real question mark over these tests. What do it What
Speaker 1: does it really mean to be positive? That's such a
Speaker 1: good point because I think Stephanie when we first started
Speaker 1: talking about the antibody tests, were like, Okay, this is
Speaker 1: the holy grail. We're going to find out if you
Speaker 1: had it and then you're okay, and then you've got
Speaker 1: and immunity and go back out into the world. And
Speaker 1: now we're realizing it's not so easy. And I do
Speaker 1: wonder how did it kind of change your psyche in
Speaker 1: terms of Okay, you know or you think you know right,
Speaker 1: because you've done five tests and the majority of saying
Speaker 1: one thing. I mean, how has it impacted your world
Speaker 1: in terms of how you go back and re enter.
Speaker 1: I think it has made me more relaxed about the
Speaker 1: risk of contracting it for sure. Um. You know, I'm
Speaker 1: I'm still being cautious because I think that's the responsible
Speaker 1: thing to do. UM, but I do look at my
Speaker 1: risks of say, contracting it by going into a store
Speaker 1: or um even a restaurant as less than it would
Speaker 1: have done otherwise. UM. So you know, but I think
Speaker 1: I think I do have a responsibility to be careful
Speaker 1: because we just don't have those long term studies showing
Speaker 1: what it means. We don't know how long it lasts.
Speaker 1: I you know, my antibodies might fade. We don't know.
Speaker 1: And until those studies are done, I need to be
Speaker 1: the sort of responsible pandemic citizen and and be careful
Speaker 1: and cautious around social distancing. So, Stephanie, in your real
Speaker 1: life as a Bloomberg reporter, I know that you are
Speaker 1: very knowledgeable about Wall Street and the city there in
Speaker 1: London and all of the gymnastics that these big firms,
Speaker 1: especially the financial firms, are going through in terms of
Speaker 1: getting people back to work. Look at this through that
Speaker 1: lens for us, if you can, because you do that
Speaker 1: so nicely in your story, And what role the antibody
Speaker 1: tests and sort of testing in general is going to
Speaker 1: play in terms of getting back to office. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: I thought I would check with some of the big
Speaker 1: banks and figure out if if they were using these
Speaker 1: antibody tests. UM. I only found credit Swiss Group is
Speaker 1: one who is offering antibody testing to its employees in Switzerland.
Speaker 1: It's looking at rolling it out to other hubs, but
Speaker 1: it's not it's only for people coming back to the
Speaker 1: office and they're not requiring them to disclo as the results.
Speaker 1: It's more of a sort of peace of mind perk
Speaker 1: for employees. UM. Other banks have been more cautious. And
Speaker 1: you know, I think there are some you know, potential
Speaker 1: legal issues that maybe they're they're wary of. UM. You know,
Speaker 1: I think it's I think it's um, you know, not
Speaker 1: exactly the silver bullet to get people back in the office. UM.
Speaker 1: And you know, I think it's a sort of they're
Speaker 1: taking a sort of weight and see approach, um, you know,
Speaker 1: to see what kind of data comes out. I mean,
Speaker 1: we do need to remember antibody testing is used to
Speaker 1: to take blood plasma from people that can be used
Speaker 1: to treat patients with those antibodies. So they're not. It's
Speaker 1: not a meaningless test. It does tell us something. I
Speaker 1: do wish we would know more about what it tells us,
Speaker 1: and I think we will find out in the coming month. Well,
Speaker 1: were you approached? I am curious after you know you're testing.
Speaker 1: I mean, I wonder what that process is to do
Speaker 1: Hospitals approach people once they know about somebody who's had
Speaker 1: it and has potentially the antibodies. I'm just curious about
Speaker 1: kind of that supply chain, if you will. Yeah, in
Speaker 1: the UK, I know that there are various researchers advertising
Speaker 1: for people to come in and donate blood plasma. Some
Speaker 1: people are using it as a backdoor way of getting
Speaker 1: an antibody test for free. Um. And you know, others
Speaker 1: are I think offering it, are looking for potential donors
Speaker 1: amongst healthcare workers, you know, where infections have been higher. UM.
Speaker 1: So I mean it's still an evolving science. Um. And
Speaker 1: you know, I think, you know, I think they'll will
Speaker 1: probably see more research coming out about that and the
Speaker 1: effects of using antibodies to treat patients and in the future.
Speaker 1: I do feel like it's a piece of the puzzle totally. Yeah,
Speaker 1: an important piece for sure, and we really appreciate your
Speaker 1: reporting and candidly, your candor, and your willingness to sort
Speaker 1: of share this not just with us but with all
Speaker 1: of our readers and viewers and listeners. Stephanie Baker really
Speaker 1: appreciated Financial Investigation. Senior writer for Bloomberg joining us on
Speaker 1: the phone from London. This is Bloomberg Business Week with
Speaker 1: Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Well, Jason,
Speaker 1: we know American Express has been involved big time in
Speaker 1: helping out the small business owner for years. They created
Speaker 1: that Small Business Saturday. I think back in UM Today's
Speaker 1: Business Week Small Business Urvival Guide. We've got AMEX at
Speaker 1: it again with a perk to its cardholders. Let's bring
Speaker 1: in Kate Crater. She's food editor at Bloomberg Pursuit. She's
Speaker 1: on the phone in New York City with a little
Speaker 1: bit more on what's going on. Kate Crater, Jason and
Speaker 1: I love when you join us. How are you me too?
Speaker 1: How you guys? Very happy to hear your voices. Likewise,
Speaker 1: so tell us what's going on. We want to talk
Speaker 1: about restaurants in a moment, but tell us about what
Speaker 1: AMEX is up to. Yeah, AMEX is doing something nice.
Speaker 1: They have committed over two hundred million dollars to a
Speaker 1: perk for cardholders, all car holders, and it's up to
Speaker 1: a fifty dollar benefit if you stop small. So for
Speaker 1: every ten dollars you spend, um you get, you get,
Speaker 1: not fifty. That would be great. For everything dollars to spend,
Speaker 1: you get five dollars back up to ten times, so
Speaker 1: it could be a fifty dollar perk um for using
Speaker 1: your American Express cards to support small businesses including restaurants,
Speaker 1: and um, that's a good thing. And so what's the idea?
Speaker 1: I mean, I think I understand the idea, but I
Speaker 1: mean the idea is that restaurants they need help. Here, Kate, yeah, boy,
Speaker 1: they need all the help. They really need all the
Speaker 1: help you can give them. And so there are and
Speaker 1: most of them are so many of them are independently
Speaker 1: owned and small. And so if you use your American
Speaker 1: Express card, including including RESI which is now American Expressive
Speaker 1: Restaurant Reservation Platform, they have sort of moved to doing
Speaker 1: at home delivery packages and you can use your cards
Speaker 1: and ordering food and get a five dollar discounts. I
Speaker 1: think it's great. I think it's great because I think
Speaker 1: you know, it's something Kate. Jason and I've talked about
Speaker 1: this since we've been in Lockdown. We've we've thought about
Speaker 1: the local businesses, whether especially in terms of restaurants who deliver,
Speaker 1: to really try and reach out to them, to support
Speaker 1: them because it's really been tough for them in terms
Speaker 1: of lifelines. UM, and we forget I think as a
Speaker 1: community that you know, so many of those restaurants that
Speaker 1: are out there, they are truly you know, small businesses,
Speaker 1: they really are. And you know, I got to do
Speaker 1: actually a story about how Chinese restaurants I go. One
Speaker 1: small bit of good news in UM in all the
Speaker 1: bad news about restaurants is how how well neighborhood Chinese
Speaker 1: restaurants are coming back, in part because neighborhood supports delivery.
Speaker 1: And one place doing Fong on the Upper West Side
Speaker 1: was doing a hundreds percent of the business they did
Speaker 1: UM on a rainy night that they would have done
Speaker 1: if there's dining room had been opened. So it makes
Speaker 1: it difference. Ordering from restaurants makes a difference. Yeah, And
Speaker 1: so that help us understand that, not but but and
Speaker 1: help us understand that, Kate, because how sustainable is that
Speaker 1: for the broad restaurant industry or is it really just
Speaker 1: limited to a certain segment. I know you that we
Speaker 1: can't give specific numbers or predictions about that, but I
Speaker 1: do wonder, knowing the mechanics of food and restaurants as
Speaker 1: well as you do. I mean, how much hope is
Speaker 1: there for people that that that really can be at
Speaker 1: least a lifeline. It's some I mean it's a lifeline.
Speaker 1: That's exactly the right word. It doesn't it's not going
Speaker 1: to support every restaurant. And if you weren't in good
Speaker 1: shape going into the pandemic, it's not you are probably
Speaker 1: not going to be in better shape on the other
Speaker 1: side of it. But I think the best restaurants and
Speaker 1: the and the ones that are really gonna go on
Speaker 1: word are the ones to have figured out a sort
Speaker 1: of hybrid model where you know, where you have like
Speaker 1: a food delivery system that works maybe a grocery or
Speaker 1: three delivery thing as well. And in some cases outdoor
Speaker 1: dining does seem to be making a little bit of
Speaker 1: a different couple. We're having very crazy weather in New York,
Speaker 1: so you think you're going to go out to eat
Speaker 1: at six o'clock and then it pours rain, at four,
Speaker 1: So it couldn't be harder for restaurants right now. Um,
Speaker 1: but some things like this American Express benefit for small businesses,
Speaker 1: Does I really think it's going to encoach me to
Speaker 1: order an extra one or two times? I think, yeah,
Speaker 1: I agree with you, um Kate, because we talked about
Speaker 1: it at home all the time. I also do wonder.
Speaker 1: I know we've had some conversations with you know, some
Speaker 1: chefs and well known chefs that even like the high
Speaker 1: end is is embracing that takeout community when that wasn't
Speaker 1: something they did before. No, they haven't. You know, Danny
Speaker 1: Meyers certainly, you know he was so as you know
Speaker 1: he did. He told us sort of dramatically he didn't
Speaker 1: think he would reopen UM before there was a bad scene.
Speaker 1: And now he's really though he's decided that, Um probably
Speaker 1: it was part of his master plan all along. But
Speaker 1: he's um crafting some really cool delivery options. And he's
Speaker 1: also said, um actually on Bloomberg that he sees like hospitality.
Speaker 1: He thinks people can consider hospitality in a new way
Speaker 1: that can include how you pick up food from Union
Speaker 1: Square cafe. You know, if that if you used to
Speaker 1: define hospitality is being within four walls, it can now
Speaker 1: be outside those four walls. Yeah, I mean it is
Speaker 1: interesting that sort of different way that you react, um
Speaker 1: or that you can interact. I should say, Kate, only
Speaker 1: about forty seconds left. So what's the outlook for fine
Speaker 1: dining at this point? We're still going to see a
Speaker 1: lot of restaurants closed. Um I I'm afraid the answer
Speaker 1: to that is going to be yes, because they're not.
Speaker 1: You know, like Daniel Hohome told us, it's not it
Speaker 1: didn't make sense people there wasn't like a huge hunger
Speaker 1: for eleven Madison Park delivery or was he interested in it.
Speaker 1: But I am. I think some of these restaurants, in
Speaker 1: fact and working on a story, um, I think some
Speaker 1: of these rests finding a different way or a different
Speaker 1: model that might at least help them help them like
Speaker 1: try and make a go of it. Well, fingers cross, Kate,
Speaker 1: and we'll look forward to that story as we look
Speaker 1: forward to all of your reporting that you put out
Speaker 1: there for Bloomberg pursuits in Bloomberg Terminal and Bloomberg dot com.
Speaker 1: Kit Crater some socially distance Kate Crater time. I know,
Speaker 1: I'm like, I'll go to a Park. I'll sit six
Speaker 1: ft away and I just want to find with her
Speaker 1: and sit and be kick crater food at Blomberg Perces.
Speaker 1: Check out all of her great work on the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Terminal and Bloomberg dot Com journal. Now, but you let
Speaker 1: me drive, no, no, no no, honey, please, I'll do the
Speaker 1: right vel. I want to dry, just drive the questions trying.
Speaker 1: This is the Drive to the Globe Community. Thanks. We'll
Speaker 1: drying us Dawn on Bloomberg Radio. It is time for
Speaker 1: the Drive to the Clothes Manhannah is with US portfolio
Speaker 1: manager and Managing director of E s G Investing at
Speaker 1: Summit Global Investments. They are based in Salt Lake City,
Speaker 1: and that's exactly where we find Matt on this Tuesday. Matt,
Speaker 1: nice to have you here on Bloomberg Radio with Jason
Speaker 1: and myself. First of all, how's it going in Salt
Speaker 1: Lake City. I have a niece there who's a doctor,
Speaker 1: and so we've been hearing stories. But I'm just curious
Speaker 1: how your your world is going. It's going quite uh,
Speaker 1: you know, well overall COVID cases are picking up, but
Speaker 1: the weather's nice. Uh you know. I actually just made
Speaker 1: it to some national parks and Utah recently and got
Speaker 1: to see some of the sites and some of the
Speaker 1: beauty kind of grounds you a little bit to see,
Speaker 1: you you know, what mother nature can do. So now
Speaker 1: Utah and Salt Lake City is a fantastic place, and
Speaker 1: you're not feeling maybe some of the effects that some
Speaker 1: some other places kind of south of you and and
Speaker 1: west of you are seeing. In terms of a search,
Speaker 1: it's not quite as bad to say what you're seeing
Speaker 1: like in in Arizona in California, but we've definitely seen
Speaker 1: you know, pick up and say mask usage caps. Not
Speaker 1: as much as I would like to see, but you know,
Speaker 1: people are taking as serious. But you know, I think,
Speaker 1: you know, as country, we still have our ways to go,
Speaker 1: but hopefully we can you know, band together and overcome. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I guess, you know, and we hope so, certainly for
Speaker 1: your case, having lived through it all here in the
Speaker 1: New York metro area, I do wonder Matt, how some
Speaker 1: of this um shade your view on the economic bounce back,
Speaker 1: especially as we get ready to move into earning season
Speaker 1: and we'll start to hear from ceo is about their
Speaker 1: business and hopefully we'll hear more about their outlooks yeah, certainly. So,
Speaker 1: you know, the COVID nineteen world is certainly a new
Speaker 1: world for all of us, and we believe it's gonna
Speaker 1: institute some aromatic consumer you know shift and just the
Speaker 1: workplace shifts as well. But for example, work from home
Speaker 1: is is not going anywhere, and what does that mean?
Speaker 1: That means people are gonna drive lets. Commercial real estate
Speaker 1: demand is going to be hit. Industrials in terms of
Speaker 1: sector is going to be weaker, and you know, things
Speaker 1: like restaurants, entertainment that that's gonna be weaker. And just
Speaker 1: in terms of just kind of a longer term secular
Speaker 1: shifts coming out of some of these behavioral shifts, but
Speaker 1: more in the near term or we gonna bounce back.
Speaker 1: That's you know, we all hope for a V shaped recovery,
Speaker 1: but the volt room history doesn't really provide such a recovery.
Speaker 1: For example, even the global financial crisis, it took five
Speaker 1: years ago from ten percent unemployment to six. Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: we're sitting at eleven. So you know, we're you know,
Speaker 1: thinking years, not not months, maybe not five years, but
Speaker 1: certainly if you know, we're not going to be back
Speaker 1: down to where we were anytime soon, well, matt one
Speaker 1: place where folks have not had to wait long. We
Speaker 1: really didn't have to wait at all for a rebound
Speaker 1: WI in tech stocks. Talk to us about some of
Speaker 1: the names that you like there because the legs of Amazon, Microsoft, Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, they've done great generally speaking, and you know
Speaker 1: this has been an area we talk a lot about
Speaker 1: it with our stock experts internally and with smart investors
Speaker 1: like you. I mean, this has just been a phenomenon
Speaker 1: in a lot of ways. Yeah. So one thing both
Speaker 1: Microsoft to Amazon have a common is cloud. That's certainly
Speaker 1: going to be picking up. Kind of the initial hit
Speaker 1: with covid kind of delayed some cloud adoptions, but in
Speaker 1: the long term, the COVID world certainly going to bring
Speaker 1: additional cloud adoption, not sort of thinking benefit big players
Speaker 1: such as Microsoft and Amazon. In fact, Microsoft actualsoft your
Speaker 1: year growth uh in March, so we only expect that
Speaker 1: to accelerate. You have that aspect, and then they both
Speaker 1: have other things going for him as well. Pick Microsoft
Speaker 1: what they call their productivity and Business process segment. So
Speaker 1: thank Microsoft Office, Microsoft Teams. I don't know about you, guys,
Speaker 1: but I'm using that type stuff a lot more than average.
Speaker 1: For example, my firm. Since we've been working from home,
Speaker 1: we've been using Microsoft Teams, and I know we're not
Speaker 1: alone in that adoption. That's certainly making to be helping,
Speaker 1: you know, Microsoft, then Amazon. I think we all know
Speaker 1: once you go prime, you don't really go back just
Speaker 1: the shipping. Uh. And they're bringing in a lot of
Speaker 1: new customers, so I'm really anxious to see prime numbers
Speaker 1: and what they're going to be doing. Uh. You know
Speaker 1: they have they have a lot of COVID expenses. So
Speaker 1: I'm not necessarily as concerned about uh kind of near
Speaker 1: term quarter, but much more anxious to see are they
Speaker 1: really bringing in new customers and they converting uh you know,
Speaker 1: trials and whatnot. And I think they are, you know,
Speaker 1: I have It's funny. I was I had to pop
Speaker 1: in to pick up a prescription over the weekend in
Speaker 1: one of the I think it was Done Read or
Speaker 1: Walgreens or something, and I did think about it was
Speaker 1: interesting a lot of the shelves were empty. But I
Speaker 1: don't know if you think about this, Jason, like because
Speaker 1: of the lockdown, Like I don't do any of that
Speaker 1: impulse buying, right. You know, you go in and you
Speaker 1: go in for a bottle of shampoo when you come
Speaker 1: out with a ton of more things that I do wonder,
Speaker 1: But part of me kind of loves that just Okay,
Speaker 1: I need this, I'll buy it right when I need it.
Speaker 1: It's very much like inventory, you know, you know, just
Speaker 1: in time, and I like kind of buying things that way.
Speaker 1: And I do wonder Matt, you know how you think
Speaker 1: about how consumers change going forward and what might be
Speaker 1: some of those lasting trends that ultimately either benefit or
Speaker 1: hurt an Amazon in the long term. Well, I don't
Speaker 1: know about you, but I've been doing those impulse buys
Speaker 1: on Amazon, taking a look at my own try to
Speaker 1: card statements and seeing Amazon Amazon, Amazon, Amazon doing uh,
Speaker 1: these small you know, impulse buys. But from a kind
Speaker 1: of you know, brick and mortar retail standpoint, overall, we
Speaker 1: like the bigger players, so I think more like your
Speaker 1: balmarts and targets and costcos of the world much more
Speaker 1: than your smaller niche retailers. Uh. And you know, ultimately
Speaker 1: we think those smaller retailers you're gonna have a quite
Speaker 1: a bit of trouble both compete against the bigger boxes
Speaker 1: and you know, e commerce, but also just and Puy
Speaker 1: you know, the COVID world, and they're just they don't
Speaker 1: have to scale to ship the way Walmart's and Amazons to.
Speaker 1: So uh, they might be in quite a bit of trouble.
Speaker 1: But the bigger box retailers, you know, Walmart's up quite
Speaker 1: a bit today. Last at check too, was about six percent.
Speaker 1: They should do quite well. Yeah, absolutely, all right, Well,
Speaker 1: interesting discussion. Thank you so much for your insights. Matt Hannah,
Speaker 1: portfolio manager Managing director of E s G Investing for
Speaker 1: SEMIT Global Investments. Johnny is on the phone from beautiful
Speaker 1: Salt Lake City. Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, South Cloud, Bloomberg
Speaker 1: dot com, or wherever you get your podcasts. And of
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