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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. I'm David gera host

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Speaker 1: of The Big Take, and today I'm sharing an episode

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Speaker 1: from my series of Exit interviews. I spoke with senior

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Speaker 1: officials in the Biden administration ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration

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Speaker 1: as they prepared to wind down their work. These conversations

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Speaker 1: were wide ranging, and in this one, taped on December eleventh,

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Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen discusses her decades long career in

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Speaker 1: public service and the challenges she expects her successor will face.

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Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in a reflective mood as

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Speaker 1: her decades long career in public service comes to an end.

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Speaker 2: I just could not feel more positively about the contributions

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Speaker 2: that good economic policy making can contribute to American welfare.

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Speaker 1: Yellen's path to the Treasury Department has been paved with

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Speaker 1: some of the biggest and highest profile jobs in government.

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Speaker 1: She was President Clinton's chief economic advisor, a Federal Reserve governor,

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Speaker 1: and the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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Speaker 1: President Obama picked her to be the Fed's Vice chair

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Speaker 1: then chair. She is the first and only woman to

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Speaker 1: have had that job and the first and only woman

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Speaker 1: to be Treasury Secretary, where she oversees a very broad portfolio.

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Speaker 1: This week I traveled to Washington to interview Yellen live

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Television and Radio and now.

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Speaker 2: Our exclusive interview with Bloomberg's David Gerr.

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Speaker 1: He sat down with the Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as

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Speaker 1: her post nears NN. Let's take a listen here in

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Speaker 1: the Treasure Department with Secretary Janet Yellen. Great to be

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Speaker 1: with you, and there's a lot I hope to cover.

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Speaker 1: We talked about the economic warfare the US is waging

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Speaker 1: in support of Ukraine, about Yellen's work on US China policy.

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Speaker 1: Then when that live interview ended, we kept talking. Okay,

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Speaker 1: we can continue now if we have for a fewer moments.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, about what she's accomplished and hasn't about threats

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Speaker 1: to the Fed's independent and many of the economic policies

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Speaker 1: President elect Trump has put forward. This is the big

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Speaker 1: take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gerra, and today on

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Speaker 1: the show, an exit interview with the seventy eighth Secretary

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Speaker 1: of the Treasury, Jennet Yellen. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and

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Speaker 1: I talked just a couple hours after we got the

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Speaker 1: latest inflation report. The consumer price index for the month

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Speaker 1: of November was in line with what economists expected. Prices

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Speaker 1: ticked higher from October and on an annual basis. The

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Speaker 1: last time we spoke, back in September, Yellen told me

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Speaker 1: she was optimistic the Federal Reserve would be able to

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Speaker 1: pull off a soft landing that policymakers could get inflation

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Speaker 1: under control without triggering a deep downturn. I asked her

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Speaker 1: if she's still confident that'll happen.

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Speaker 2: Well, Look, I think inflation has come down very substantially

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Speaker 2: from the peaks it reached in twenty twenty one. In

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, we're still a bit above but getting

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Speaker 2: pretty close to the Fed's two percent objectives. And I

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Speaker 2: believe that the FED will continue to focus on inflation

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Speaker 2: and take whatever her actions prove to be necessary to

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Speaker 2: keep inflation hitting toward their two percent target. We've been

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Speaker 2: very fortunate so far that it hasn't been necessary to

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Speaker 2: weaken the economy or create higher unemployment to accomplish that,

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Speaker 2: and I hope that continues to be the case.

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Speaker 1: Jenny Allen led the Federal Reserve from twenty fourteen to

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, and given that I wanted to get her

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Speaker 1: thoughts on FED independence. President elect Trump has openly criticized

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Speaker 1: the current FED Chair, Jerome Powell, and Trump says a

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Speaker 1: president should be able to weigh in on FEDD policies.

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Speaker 1: Are you confident that the FED will be able to

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Speaker 1: withstand a more actively involved administration or other kinds of

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Speaker 1: political pressures.

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Speaker 2: Well, independence is absolutely central to the Fed's effectiveness, and

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Speaker 2: I believe it's important that it remains an independent institution,

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Speaker 2: that politics don't enter its decision making, and it remains

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Speaker 2: accountable to Congress to explain how it's pursuing the goals

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Speaker 2: that Congress is assigned to it. And in the area

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Speaker 2: of monetary policy, it's price stability and maximum employment. And

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Speaker 2: I've spent many years of my career at the FED,

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Speaker 2: and I can tell you that the FED is not

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Speaker 2: a political institution and politics don't matter to its decision making.

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Speaker 2: It's a highly professional organzation with a very strong staff

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Speaker 2: and a diverse group of policymakers who are trying their

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Speaker 2: lowful best to figure out, given all the uncertainties afflicting

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Speaker 2: the economy, what is the best path to achieve these

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Speaker 2: goals and manage trade offs that they may face, and

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Speaker 2: I think they've done a good job. And what general

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Speaker 2: research shows is that independent central banks end up delivering

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Speaker 2: better macroeconomic results, and not only on inflation, which you

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Speaker 2: would expect, but also on real economic performance. And so

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Speaker 2: you know, over the last oh i would say, thirty

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Speaker 2: or forty years, the trend all around the globe has

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Speaker 2: been toward sharing up the independence of central banks, and

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Speaker 2: there's been a payoff, and I don't think that that's

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Speaker 2: going to change.

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Speaker 1: Own. Powell's term as FED chair isn't up until twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six, and in a recent interview, President elect Trump

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Speaker 1: says he has no plans to try to replace Powell

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Speaker 1: before then. But a proposal that's gotten some attention by

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Speaker 1: Scott Besson Trump's pick to succeed Yell in a treasury

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Speaker 1: is for Trump to appoint a shadow fedchair. Do you

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Speaker 1: see that as being just a potential nuisance or is

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Speaker 1: there a real risk of having somebody who's opining with

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Speaker 1: some sense of authority about issues of monetary policy.

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Speaker 2: I think that this would create a great deal of

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Speaker 2: confusion and the aformc that makes monetary Policy is a

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Speaker 2: very capable and non political body, and I believe that

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Speaker 2: they would go on and make the best possible decisions

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Speaker 2: then they can and would not be influenced by somebody

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Speaker 2: outside the FID who was trying to play such a role.

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Speaker 2: I think it could disrupt financial markets and have an

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Speaker 2: adverse on economic performance in the end. I don't think

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Speaker 2: it would influence the FED.

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Speaker 1: There's been a lot of talk about the dollar, the

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Speaker 1: safety of the dollar as the global reserve currency, and

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Speaker 1: I wonder if that's something that you think American should

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Speaker 1: be preoccupied with. It's something that we hear about from

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Speaker 1: the President elect and his team. Something else they've floated

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Speaker 1: as it's been put a mar Lago accord where you

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Speaker 1: could get the US together with Europe and China and Japan.

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Speaker 1: Maybe you talk about domestic production, how narrow trade deficits.

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Speaker 1: Is there an appetite or an opportunity for that.

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Speaker 2: The use of the dollar in global transactions and financial

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Speaker 2: markets and in trade is underpinned by a very strong

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Speaker 2: US economy with deep and liquid capital markets, the role

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Speaker 2: of treasuries as the safest asset in the world, the

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Speaker 2: role of law, a well managed economy with low inflation

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Speaker 2: and solid macroeconomic policy. And when you think about what

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Speaker 2: other currency could possibly replace the dollar, the list is short.

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Speaker 2: Possibly there is no currency that at this point could

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Speaker 2: possibly rival the dollar. And in terms of an agreement

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Speaker 2: that could affect the value of the dollar, you know,

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Speaker 2: the policy that our administration has articulated is that major

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Speaker 2: countries should have the value of their currencies determined in

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Speaker 2: world markets. So intervention might be appropriate on occasion to

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Speaker 2: counter extreme volatility, but we believe that it's best for

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Speaker 2: markets to determine the value of the dollar.

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Speaker 1: Coming up, as Jennet Yellen's tenure as Treasury Secretary comes

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Speaker 1: to an end, how she's trying to protect some of

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Speaker 1: the policies she's put in place, Trump proofing at the

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Speaker 1: Treasury Department. Plus yeah Ellen's thoughts on tariffs, the future

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Speaker 1: of the relationship between the US and China, and her legacy.

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Speaker 1: That's after the break. As Treasury Secretary, Jenny Yellen has

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Speaker 1: played a big role on the world stage. After Russia

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Speaker 1: launched its full scale invasion of Ukraine in twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 1: she worked with allies to impose a spate of sanctions.

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Speaker 1: Right before my interview, Bloomberg reported the Biden administration is

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Speaker 1: considering more sanctions targeting Russia's oil exports and its shadow

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Speaker 1: fleet of oil tankers, which have been an economic lifeline.

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Speaker 1: I asked the secretary if she could confirm that those

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Speaker 1: discussions are underway.

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Speaker 2: Well, let me say, we never preview sanctions, and we've

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Speaker 2: constantly been tightening our sanctions on Russia. Our overall aim

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Speaker 2: is to impair Russia's ability to continue conducting this brutal war,

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Speaker 2: to try to deny it the military equipment it needs

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Speaker 2: to be able to do that, and we've taken a

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Speaker 2: variety of steps to do it. But we have been

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Speaker 2: focused since the outset on Russian oil revenue. It's a

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Speaker 2: critical component of the Russian budget. Now, what's unusual about

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Speaker 2: this moment is that the oil market seems to be

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Speaker 2: well supplied.

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Speaker 1: Prices are relatively cheap.

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Speaker 2: Prices are relatively low. Global demand is down, and there

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Speaker 2: really has been an increase in supply. American firms have

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Speaker 2: stepped up, We have vastly expanded oil production. OPEC countries

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Speaker 2: like Saudi Arabia have excess capacity at this time. So

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Speaker 2: the global oil market is softer, and that creates possibly

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Speaker 2: an opportunity.

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Speaker 1: Let me pivot to China, and this has been a relationship.

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Speaker 1: I think you've invested a lot of time and energy

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Speaker 1: and rebuilding a conduitive communication between Washington and Beijing. How

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Speaker 1: much does that concern if the efforts that you've put

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Speaker 1: in to rehabilitate that relationship go to the wayside.

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Speaker 2: So I do think it's important to have ongoing communications

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Speaker 2: at all levels, from the President and she talking to

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Speaker 2: senior US officials to staff that need to communicate. Just

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Speaker 2: having open channels of communication, I believe it will be

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Speaker 2: seen as continuing to offer value. These are channels by

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Speaker 2: which we can make clear what we're unhappy about, where

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Speaker 2: our concerns are, and why we have them. We have

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Speaker 2: significant concerns about Russia's economic policies that we discuss in

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Speaker 2: these channels. We're also using these channels to build trust,

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Speaker 2: in channels for cooperation so that we can work together

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Speaker 2: where our interests coincide. So there's no question that we

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Speaker 2: have serious concerns both from a national security point of

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Speaker 2: view and a broader economic view with China's behavior. But nevertheless,

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Speaker 2: is the two largest economies in the world. It's critical

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Speaker 2: to have open channels of communication. It helps avoid misunderstandings.

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Speaker 1: Given the relationship she's developed with Chinese policymakers, I asked

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Speaker 1: Yellen what insights she has into how they may respond

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Speaker 1: in the face of President Elect Trump's recent threats to

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Speaker 1: impose broad putitive tariffs on the US's biggest trading partners,

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Speaker 1: including China.

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Speaker 2: Well, I really don't want to make a forecast. Many countries,

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Speaker 2: when they're faced with unilateral actions of that sort look

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Speaker 2: for ways to retaliate, and my guess would be that

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Speaker 2: they would do that. We have in areas of concern

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Speaker 2: where I've expressed repeatedly concerns with over capacity that is

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Speaker 2: developed in Chinese advanced manufacturing industries and clean energy, semiconductors

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Speaker 2: and the like. We think it reflects active large subsidies

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Speaker 2: that are flooding the world with exports and threaten to

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Speaker 2: drive our firms out of business, and areas that we

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Speaker 2: think are critical to our own future. We have put

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Speaker 2: in place tariffs now they're strategic. They affected eighteen billion

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Speaker 2: dollars worth of trade, certainly not all of our trade

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Speaker 2: with China, but broad based tariffs. Almost all economists agree

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Speaker 2: that what they will do is hurt us by raising prices,

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Speaker 2: possibly substantially and making it more expensive for firms that

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Speaker 2: need inputs from China to be able to acquire them,

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Speaker 2: and harmark competitiveness of firms that rely on those imports.

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Speaker 1: The person that Donald Trump is named is your presumptive successor.

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Speaker 1: Scott doesn't have suggested that he wants to cut the

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Speaker 1: deficit in half by twenty twenty eight. Is that necessary?

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Speaker 1: Is that even possible? I guess what I'm asking more

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Speaker 1: broadly is how worried are you about the fiscal outlook

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Speaker 1: at this point in time?

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Speaker 2: Well, I am concerned about the fiscal outlook, and I

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Speaker 2: believe the deficit reduction is necessary to keep us on

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Speaker 2: a sustainable fiscal course. Now, Congress hasn't really done anything

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Speaker 2: to improve the fiscal outlook, and I think that's a shame.

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Speaker 2: I'm disappointed in that, and I think Congress needs to

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Speaker 2: work hard on that. We proposed a lot of pay

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Speaker 2: for us that we think would fairly ask corporations, wealthy

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Speaker 2: individuals to pay their fair share. We've negotiated an international

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Speaker 2: tax agreement that would create a level play field worldwide

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Speaker 2: for multinationals, and that would be a revenue raising measure

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Speaker 2: that I think would be very valuable, and there is

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Speaker 2: certainly more.

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Speaker 1: Jimmy Allen has had a path breaking career. I closed

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Speaker 1: out our conversation by asking her what she's reflecting on

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Speaker 1: as she wraps up decades in public service.

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Speaker 2: I feel terrific about the opportunities that I've had over

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Speaker 2: the last four years to serve at Treasury and before

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Speaker 2: that at the Federal Reserve in the Council of Economic

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Speaker 2: Advisors during the Clinton years, And I just could not

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Speaker 2: feel more positively about first of all, the contributions that

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Speaker 2: good economic policy making can contribute to American welfare. But

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Speaker 2: beyond that, we have an excellent group of senior officials

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Speaker 2: that we brought in. But what we found at Treasury

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Speaker 2: and have built is a civil servants who have deep expertise, knowledge, commitment,

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Speaker 2: operate with integrity, and are able to do the kind

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Speaker 2: of analysis and operational management that really serves our economy,

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Speaker 2: will and financial markets. And this is a core asset

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Speaker 2: of America that we have a devoted civil service that

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Speaker 2: has great expertise and contributes to good performance. So as

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Speaker 2: I look back on my career, that's really been important

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Speaker 2: to me.

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Speaker 1: It's not in Secretary. Thank you very much, Thank you

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Speaker 1: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gera.

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Speaker 1: This episode is produced by Alex Segura, who also mixed

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Speaker 1: and sound designed it. It was edited by Chris Antsy

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Speaker 1: and Naomi Shave, who's our senior producer. He was fact

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Speaker 1: check by Adriana Tapia. Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso,

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Speaker 1: Our executive producer is na Cool Beemster Boorr, and Sage

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Speaker 1: Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. If you liked this episode,

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