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Speaker 1: here at the Vallume. Happy Wednesday, everybody. Hope all of
Speaker 1: you guys are having an incredible week. Well, we have
Speaker 1: another series review for you guys today. After last night,
Speaker 1: the Los Angeleslkers beat the New Orleans Pelicans and so
Speaker 1: we're going to be breaking down the four games sweep
Speaker 1: in the Western Conference Finals last year, the Denver Nuggets
Speaker 1: versus the Los Angeles Lakers. You guys know the Joe
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Speaker 1: so we can keep hitting some mail bags over the
Speaker 1: course of the rest of this week. All right, on
Speaker 1: that note, let's talk some basketball. So the Nuggets won
Speaker 1: the season series three to zero. I believe they've won
Speaker 1: eight in a row, dating back to their final regular
Speaker 1: season matchup from last year, the four games sweep and
Speaker 1: then three to ohero this year. In terms of per
Speaker 1: possession basis this year, in three games, the Denver Nuggets
Speaker 1: are getting one hundred and twenty five points per one
Speaker 1: hundred possessions and the Lakers are getting one hundred and
Speaker 1: fifteen points per one hundred posessions. But most of that
Speaker 1: has been in the clutch. In seven minutes of clutch
Speaker 1: basketball this season, and again qualifies as anything inside of
Speaker 1: five minutes inside of five points, and in seven minutes
Speaker 1: of clutch basketball this season, the Nuggets have outscored the
Speaker 1: Lakers twenty seven to ten, So that's a pretty much
Speaker 1: a beat down in that environment. Last year in the postseason,
Speaker 1: in eleven minutes of clutch basketball, they outscored the Lakers
Speaker 1: twenty eight to thirteen. That's basically been the difference between
Speaker 1: these two teams in that matchup. The Lakers, they are
Speaker 1: capable of attacking Denver in the paint, they get a
Speaker 1: bunch of good shots, they keep the game close, and
Speaker 1: then late they just can't keep up with them in
Speaker 1: the half court and the Nuggets just execute and pull away.
Speaker 1: It's a problem that the Nuggets give most teams in
Speaker 1: the league, but the Lakers in particular, it's not even
Speaker 1: one of those things where it's like, oh, they get
Speaker 1: us two out of three times. No, they get them
Speaker 1: every single time. And that's been the main dynamic that
Speaker 1: has swung this matchup over the course of the last
Speaker 1: couple of years. Last year it was mostly the defense.
Speaker 1: They held the Lakers to a sixty eight point four
Speaker 1: offensive rating and crunch time during the four game sweep.
Speaker 1: This year, it's mostly about Denver's offense. During the regular season.
Speaker 1: They're scoring one hundred and ninety three points per one
Speaker 1: hundred clutch possessions in those three games, So that's where
Speaker 1: the difference has been on the gambling front. The Nuggets
Speaker 1: are minus three to ten to win the series. According
Speaker 1: to DraftKings, that is the biggest first round favorite so
Speaker 1: far of the five series that are set by far.
Speaker 1: The Cleveland Cavaliers at minus one ninety five over the
Speaker 1: Orlando Magic, are the second biggest favorite that we have
Speaker 1: in the first round. So Vegas views Denver as a
Speaker 1: shoe in to move on. The biggest difference between this
Speaker 1: series and last year is that the Lakers are much
Speaker 1: more of an offensive minded team than they were last year.
Speaker 1: To give you an idea, last year, the line of
Speaker 1: delineation was the Westbrook trade. After the Westbrook trade, the
Speaker 1: Lakers won eighteen to eight. They were second best record
Speaker 1: in the league. Over that span. They were fourteenth in
Speaker 1: offense and second in defense. It was a defensive minded
Speaker 1: team and they rode that twins versus the Grizzlies and
Speaker 1: the Warriors before they went into that Nuggets juggernaut. This year,
Speaker 1: for me, the line of delineation is January seventh, and
Speaker 1: basically what it was was they completely let go of
Speaker 1: the rope after the n season tournament, and that was
Speaker 1: a game against the Clippers that kind of re engaged
Speaker 1: the Lakers, and from that point on in the season,
Speaker 1: they went thirty to sixteen. They were the fourth best
Speaker 1: record in the league over that forty six game span,
Speaker 1: and they were third in offense in twenty second in defense.
Speaker 1: So to look at that again, they were second in defense,
Speaker 1: fourteenth in offense last year in their stretch run this year,
Speaker 1: third in offense, twenty second in defense. So fundamentally different
Speaker 1: type of team. One little line of optimism for Lakers
Speaker 1: fans who were worried about their defense, because I do
Speaker 1: think the Lakers are a little bit better defensively than
Speaker 1: their numbers show. They have a one tozh four defensive
Speaker 1: rating in their last ten games with Anthony Davis on
Speaker 1: the floor, which is very good. And you saw the
Speaker 1: high level defense that they showed versus the Pelicans first stretches.
Speaker 1: That's trending in the right direction. But even though to
Speaker 1: to kind of like tie it all together, I do
Speaker 1: think the Lakers are a little better than they were
Speaker 1: last year, and so from that standpoint, I would be
Speaker 1: shocked if Denver swept them. We could skip ahead to
Speaker 1: the end here, I'm going to be picking Denver to
Speaker 1: win the series. Everybody should even if you think the
Speaker 1: Lakers have a chance to win the series, it is
Speaker 1: the unlikely scenario compared to Denver holding serve and moving on.
Speaker 1: So I would be surprised if I saw anybody legitimately
Speaker 1: saying they thought the Lakers were likely to win the series.
Speaker 1: I'm picking Denver that said. I don't think they're just
Speaker 1: gonna run rough shot over them the way that they
Speaker 1: did last year. I think it will be a longer series,
Speaker 1: and that is the main reason why. I just think
Speaker 1: it's a better Laker team. Lebron's better, the offense is
Speaker 1: way better. We'll get into some of the details here
Speaker 1: in just a minute, So let's start with the Lakers
Speaker 1: on offense. Third in offense over the last forty six games.
Speaker 1: Like I mentioned how it's a relentless paint attack in
Speaker 1: deadly three point shooting, the Lakers are second in points
Speaker 1: in the paint per one hundred possessions since January seventh.
Speaker 1: They've been second for the entire season. Really, but they're
Speaker 1: also shooting much better that the main thing that kind
Speaker 1: of pushed them over the top. They're shooting thirty nine
Speaker 1: point six percent from three in that forty six game span,
Speaker 1: second best mark in the league, behind the Boston Celtics,
Speaker 1: who I think are at thirty nine point nine percent,
Speaker 1: So they're both right there around forty percent. The Lakers
Speaker 1: have been one of the best three point shooting teams
Speaker 1: in the league. Just imagine five out sets, guys rolling
Speaker 1: and cutting towards the paint, tons of shooting on the perimeter.
Speaker 1: Everybody in the lineup except for Anthony Davis is a
Speaker 1: knockdown three point shooter. Ruby Hachimura is a knockdown three
Speaker 1: point shooter. Lebron James is a knockdown three point shooter.
Speaker 1: So is d Low, so is Austin and so that
Speaker 1: kind of is the foundation of what makes the offense work,
Speaker 1: screening and rolling and cutting, knocking down shots. When the
Speaker 1: defense reacts and they're really good at playing advantage basketball,
Speaker 1: typically what they'll do is they'll run some kind of
Speaker 1: horn set, usually some kind of three man action around
Speaker 1: the top of the key, whether it's a double drag
Speaker 1: or whether it's a screen the screen or type of action.
Speaker 1: You guys will see some examples when we get into
Speaker 1: our film session here, but they'll run some sort of
Speaker 1: three man action to get an advantage. Once they get
Speaker 1: their advantage. From there, they just play advantage basketball. And
Speaker 1: like Lebron can attack close outs, Rueychamura can attack close outs,
Speaker 1: Austin and Delo can attack close outs, and obviously Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis cleans up everything around the basket. He's also first
Speaker 1: in the NBA this year in second chance points. That's
Speaker 1: where he gets a lot of his damage. To get
Speaker 1: the defensive rotation, ad will clean up messes at the
Speaker 1: rim when guys missshot. So matchups that I'm expecting with
Speaker 1: the Lakers on the ball, Lakers on the offensive end,
Speaker 1: CACP will guard D'Angelo Russell to start the series, Jamal
Speaker 1: Murray will guard Austin Reeves, Michael Porter Junior will guard
Speaker 1: Ruy Hotcha Mura, Aaron Gordon will guard Lebron James, and
Speaker 1: nicolea Jokic will guard Anthony Davis. Let's go through some
Speaker 1: of these specific matchups. So so CACP is that there's
Speaker 1: a reason why the why they're most likely going to
Speaker 1: put KCP on D'Angelo Russell. I do think Austin Reeves
Speaker 1: is a better all around basketball player than D'Angelo Russell.
Speaker 1: He's a substantially better defensive player and a really good
Speaker 1: connective piece on the offensive end of the floor. But
Speaker 1: Dlo does have a higher offensive ceiling. He's a better
Speaker 1: shooter who can get hotter, and he's a better kind
Speaker 1: of like playmaker and pick roll and so you can
Speaker 1: do more damage to the Lakers offense on the front
Speaker 1: end by putting your best perimeter defender on D'Angelo Russell.
Speaker 1: That's why I think they'll put case Ap on him.
Speaker 1: So the Jamal Murray on Austin Reeves matchup is gonna
Speaker 1: be key because last year, one of the big swing
Speaker 1: factors was the Lakers ended up playing a lot of
Speaker 1: Dennis Schroeder, especially because DLO was playing like crap and
Speaker 1: because they were trying to find somebody that could reasonably
Speaker 1: guard Jamal Murray. And so the Lakers had a lot
Speaker 1: of success with Austin lebron two man game last year,
Speaker 1: and then basically what they did is they switched Jamal
Speaker 1: Murray off of Austin and put him onto Dennis Schroeder
Speaker 1: because Dennis is not as good as a movement shooter
Speaker 1: or off ballplayer, and they were able to kind of
Speaker 1: get by with it. So one of the key parts
Speaker 1: of this series is going to be can the Lakers
Speaker 1: keep Austin and de Lo on the floor because if
Speaker 1: they can keep Austin and Dil on the floor, then
Speaker 1: they can run their Austin Lebron two man game or
Speaker 1: dl Lebron two man game, depending on who Jamal Murray
Speaker 1: is guarding, and keep Jamal Murray engaged defensively. You guys
Speaker 1: will see when we get to the film. One of
Speaker 1: the biggest things the Nuggets will do is basically tuck
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray on the worst offensive player on the other
Speaker 1: team and try to buy him as much rest during
Speaker 1: the game as possible. During the latest matchup that they
Speaker 1: had in March down the stretch, the Lakers went with
Speaker 1: Cam Reddish, something that I got I hope we do
Speaker 1: not see in this series because he can't guard Jamal
Speaker 1: Murray and he just nukes their offense. But Jamal Murray
Speaker 1: was guarding Cam Reddish and literally just standing around and
Speaker 1: watching stuff happen while the other guys played offense, and
Speaker 1: so big shock he had the leg strength to rise
Speaker 1: up and make shots on the other ends of the
Speaker 1: end of the floor. So one of the key matchups
Speaker 1: of this series is going to be Can Austin Reeves
Speaker 1: and D'Angelo Russell remain on the floor together so that
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray has to guard a good offensive player. If
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray has to guard a good offensive player, the
Speaker 1: Laker offense will have more resiliency in terms of holding
Speaker 1: up over the course of the series. Specifically the Jamal
Speaker 1: Murray on Austin Reeves dynamic, which is where the series
Speaker 1: will start. Last year, they were doing a lot of
Speaker 1: pick and pops, so like, Austin's a good movement shooter,
Speaker 1: so Austin would set the screen, slip to the three
Speaker 1: point line as Jamal Murray's hedging, Lebron would throw the
Speaker 1: pass to Austin, Austin would hit a three. This year,
Speaker 1: the guard screens on Lebron are more slipping into open space.
Speaker 1: A big part of that's just the spacing provided by
Speaker 1: their five out. But you'll see Austin set screens and
Speaker 1: then slip into like the short roll area, and then
Speaker 1: there he'll either score if he's open enough, or he'll
Speaker 1: make reads and kind of pick them apart from there.
Speaker 1: But like, as long as Jamal Murray is on Austin Reeves,
Speaker 1: expect Austin Reeves to be involved in a lot of actions.
Speaker 1: Early and often in this series. I think, honestly, one
Speaker 1: of the biggest factors for Denver defensively in the series
Speaker 1: is going to be their rotations, meaning how good and
Speaker 1: sharp they are in their closeouts, chasing guys off the
Speaker 1: three point line, multiple efforts to contain multiple actions, because
Speaker 1: I do think the Lakers are gonna be able to
Speaker 1: get them in rotation a lot more than they did
Speaker 1: last year. They just have a lot more offensive skill
Speaker 1: and continuity, and they're just better within their offense this year,
Speaker 1: So I do think they're gonna be able to get
Speaker 1: Denver in rotation. Denver's just gonna have to do their
Speaker 1: job in rotation with their athleticism within their game play
Speaker 1: and funneling guys in the right direction, chasing the right
Speaker 1: guys off the line, closing out short on the guys
Speaker 1: that you're supposed to, Guys like gatee Vincent, guys like
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis, guys like Spencer Dinwoodie for instance. Game plan
Speaker 1: discipline is gonna be big there. Aaron Gordon on Lebron,
Speaker 1: This is where these playoff matchups kind of show where
Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon's value is Like Lebron, James Kawhi Leonard and
Speaker 1: Kevin Durant are the three best forwards in the Western Conference,
Speaker 1: and he matches up really well with all three of them.
Speaker 1: And then if you get out of the Western Conference
Speaker 1: and you run into a Boston or you run into
Speaker 1: a Miami, or you run into a Milwaukee and it's
Speaker 1: Jimmy or Tatum or Jiannison Tennacumpo, he matches up with
Speaker 1: those guys too. He has the strength to absorb the
Speaker 1: bully ball from those guys, and this in the length
Speaker 1: and quickness to bother the pull up shooting of those guys.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna show you a bunch of examples on film
Speaker 1: of how Aaron Gordon can like beat Lebron to spots,
Speaker 1: absorb the contact in the chest when Lebron tries to
Speaker 1: kind of dislodge him and force him into tough fadeaway
Speaker 1: jump shots. It's one of the few guys in the
Speaker 1: league that can like actually guard Lebron credibly well. Run's
Speaker 1: jump shot is going to be key in this regard.
Speaker 1: So last year in the regular season, Lebron was getting
Speaker 1: zero point nine to three points per catch and shoot
Speaker 1: jumper zero point eight seven points per pull up jumper.
Speaker 1: Last year in the playoffs, Lebron was getting zero point
Speaker 1: nine to six points per catch and shoot jumper, zero
Speaker 1: point six seven points per pull up jumper. So he
Speaker 1: was just a bad jump shooter all season last year,
Speaker 1: from the regular season all the way through the playoffs.
Speaker 1: This year, in the regular season, Lebron was getting one
Speaker 1: point two five points per catch and shoot jumper, he
Speaker 1: was one of the best catch and shoot guys in
Speaker 1: the league, and zero point nine to four points per
Speaker 1: pull up jumper, which is far more respectable than the
Speaker 1: zero point six to seven that he was shooting last year.
Speaker 1: And so he's actually trending up on the pull up
Speaker 1: jump shot as well post All Star Break, where I
Speaker 1: personally think Lebron's playing at an extremely high level. We'll
Speaker 1: get to that in a second, but since the All
Speaker 1: Star Break, Lebron's getting one point zero three points per
Speaker 1: pull up jumper too, So he's been a very efficient
Speaker 1: pull up jump shooter in that span. He's just a
Speaker 1: much better jump shooter overall than he was last year.
Speaker 1: They're going to need him to make shots in this series.
Speaker 1: Lebron is probably the biggest point of optimism for any
Speaker 1: Laker fan in this series. After the All Star Break,
Speaker 1: Lebron James is averaging twenty eight points, eight rebounds in
Speaker 1: tennysis per game on fifty eight percent from the field,
Speaker 1: which is absurd in forty five percent from three. He's
Speaker 1: the only player in the league post deadline to be
Speaker 1: averaging at least twenty seven points per game on at
Speaker 1: least fifty percent from the field and at least forty
Speaker 1: percent from three. You just watched him in two do
Speaker 1: like super important games against the New Orleans Pelicans on
Speaker 1: the road, just utterly dominate them. I personally think he's
Speaker 1: been the third best player in the league post All
Speaker 1: Star Break, and I would pick him as the third
Speaker 1: best playoff player going into this playoff run. That is
Speaker 1: the level that Lebron is playing at right now, especially
Speaker 1: with Giannis being injured and with Kawhi Leonard being injured.
Speaker 1: I would put jokicet one, I'd put Luca at two,
Speaker 1: and I'd put Lebron James at three. That's the level
Speaker 1: he's at and he's been there for a couple of months.
Speaker 1: That is where that is where the point of optimism
Speaker 1: is right because last year he was hurt, and even
Speaker 1: when he wasn't hurt, to start the season, he wasn't
Speaker 1: this level of player. He was struggling to shoot, just
Speaker 1: wasn't at the same level. Lebron is just better now
Speaker 1: than he was last year. That's crazy. It didn't make
Speaker 1: any sense. I don't really have an explanation for you
Speaker 1: other than he just got in the gym and polished
Speaker 1: some things up and had another level of motivation. But
Speaker 1: Lebron is just at a different level this year. Last year, obviously,
Speaker 1: like with a foot injury too, it just kind of
Speaker 1: exacerbated that. I thought Jamal Murray just straight up outplayed
Speaker 1: Lebron James in the playoffs last year. That is something
Speaker 1: that I don't think will happen this year. I think
Speaker 1: Lebron will outplay Jamal Murray or at least meet him
Speaker 1: at that top tier superstar level. And obviously if Jamal
Speaker 1: can meet everybody there, then that's just part of what
Speaker 1: makes Denver so damn good, right. But I do think
Speaker 1: that Lebron out playing Jamal would go a long way
Speaker 1: towards stretching out the series from the four game sweep
Speaker 1: that it was to something that's more competitive. Yokijn ad
Speaker 1: Ad just hasn't been able to score on in one
Speaker 1: on one in the February game, the middle game of
Speaker 1: the three games they played this year. He get some
Speaker 1: buckets against him in the post, but for the most
Speaker 1: part in their matchups, it hasn't worked out well for him.
Speaker 1: Eighty's biggest weakness as a player is he never developed
Speaker 1: a consistent over the top shot, whether it's you know,
Speaker 1: something in the post or something in terms of a
Speaker 1: jump shot, and so he's had times where he can
Speaker 1: make it, but it's never been consistent. And then he
Speaker 1: can't bully Nicola Jokic the way he does some of
Speaker 1: the other centers around the league, and since he's bulked up,
Speaker 1: he's not fast enough to go around him anymore, so
Speaker 1: he just can't really score on him one on one.
Speaker 1: So really it's gonna come down to punishing yokicen help.
Speaker 1: That means when Yokic is in ball screens, eighty has
Speaker 1: to hit his floaters in his short jump shots that
Speaker 1: he gets in pick and roll, and then he's got
Speaker 1: to attack the offensive glass effectively. Anthony Davis got three
Speaker 1: hundred and forty two second chance points this year, which
Speaker 1: is the most in the NBA. Rudy Gobert was second.
Speaker 1: Nikola Jokic was third. So that's where Anthony Davis can
Speaker 1: be impactful offensively scoring him pick and roll and then
Speaker 1: obviously uh attacking the offensive glass keys for both teams.
Speaker 1: For the Nuggets, you got to prevent D'Angelo Russell from
Speaker 1: getting easy look in getting confident. Last year, the Nuggets
Speaker 1: snatched D'Angelo Russell's heart early in the series and it
Speaker 1: fundamentally changed the entire dynamic of the series. That is
Speaker 1: something they have to do again. If they can do
Speaker 1: that again, it could get ugly and then we could
Speaker 1: be looking out a sweep again because the Laker offense
Speaker 1: when Di Loo goes off, the court does go down
Speaker 1: a level because of the lack of that kind of
Speaker 1: like shooting upside right. And then you just go from
Speaker 1: having five really good offensive players to four really good
Speaker 1: offensive players and a guy that you can close out
Speaker 1: short on and things aren't as effective. And so just
Speaker 1: KCP getting super physical with Dlo and getting him off
Speaker 1: to a rough start in the series I think is
Speaker 1: going to be key. Being sharp in rotation. Like I said,
Speaker 1: the Lakers are really good at getting that ball to
Speaker 1: the second side of the floor and generating close out
Speaker 1: opportunities for their offensive players. All five of their guys
Speaker 1: can in their starting lineup can capitalize on that type
Speaker 1: of advantage. Got some guys off the bench who can
Speaker 1: do it too, So solid closeouts and contests will be
Speaker 1: key for Denver, and then they have to keep Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis off the offensive glass. This is be more about
Speaker 1: Michael Porter Junior and Aaron Gordon because I do think
Speaker 1: Jokic is gonna get pulled into help situations quite a
Speaker 1: bit in their pick and roll coverages. So your two
Speaker 1: six to ten guys at the three and four are
Speaker 1: just gonna have to clean up the glass on the
Speaker 1: Lakers front, AD's gotta make shots and pick and roll.
Speaker 1: He's gonna get looks. He has to knock him down.
Speaker 1: They have to win the driving kick battle. Like I said,
Speaker 1: Lebron is going to get the ball to the opposite
Speaker 1: side of the floor. He's gonna generate those close out situations.
Speaker 1: So Ruy Di Loo and Austin are gonna have to
Speaker 1: hit shots, and they're gonna have to attack closeouts and
Speaker 1: hit higher level close out shots when they get into
Speaker 1: late clock situations. Backup guard shooting, I think Spencer Dinwoodie
Speaker 1: and Gabe Vincent are gonna play a little bit in
Speaker 1: this series because of needing to find somebody that can
Speaker 1: guard Jamal Murray, and so those guys can go ice
Speaker 1: cold from three and struggle offensively, and so getting at
Speaker 1: least one of those guys to be impactful offensively so
Speaker 1: that they can play him as an option on Jamal Murray,
Speaker 1: I think is gonna be key. Lebron James and Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis have to be able to score in crunch time.
Speaker 1: They are combined one for five from the field in
Speaker 1: clutch situations against the Nuggets this year. They were one
Speaker 1: for nine in the playoffs last year. So two for
Speaker 1: fourteen from Lebron James and AD during this seven game
Speaker 1: losing streak against the Nuggets when the game is within
Speaker 1: five with less than five minutes left, they have to
Speaker 1: be better than that. End of story, no other way
Speaker 1: to put it. You need your stars to hit shots
Speaker 1: when Jamal Murray and nicolea Jokic are damn sure going
Speaker 1: to hit shots on the other end of the floor.
Speaker 1: And then lastly, got to find a way to keep
Speaker 1: Jamal engaged defensively as much as possible. A big part
Speaker 1: of what their issue is Jamal Murray just finds a
Speaker 1: way to rest on the defensive end, and then he
Speaker 1: has the fresh legs to knock down shots. That's where
Speaker 1: that key dynamic of keeping your best offensive players on
Speaker 1: the floor and holding up well enough so that you
Speaker 1: can make Jamal Murray Jamal work and then maybe, just
Speaker 1: maybe he'll miss some of those shots and give yourself
Speaker 1: a better chance of pulling out a few of those
Speaker 1: clutch games. Moving to the Nuggets on offense, I think
Speaker 1: Austin Reeves is going to start on Jamal Murray, D'Angelo
Speaker 1: Russell Reguard, Contavious Callwell, Pope Lebron James will likely start
Speaker 1: on Michael Porter Junior based on the regular season matchups.
Speaker 1: Ruyach Mura will likely guard Jokic based on the regular
Speaker 1: season matchups, and Anthony Davis will guard Aaron Gordon to
Speaker 1: start the series. So starting with Austin, will Austin be
Speaker 1: able to do a good enough job. Austin is playing
Speaker 1: the best defense of his career as of late. By necessity,
Speaker 1: the Lakers did not bring in a point of attack
Speaker 1: defender at the deadline, at least not a starting caliber one,
Speaker 1: and so Austin had no choice but to basically slot
Speaker 1: into that primary point of attack defense role. Struggled with
Speaker 1: it at first, but is really starting to come around
Speaker 1: as a as a decent point of attack defender. Did
Speaker 1: a really good job on CJ. McCollum in the did
Speaker 1: a really nice job on CG. Mccum in those two
Speaker 1: Pelicans games, but on film from what I saw, kind
Speaker 1: of struggled to navigate nicolea Jokic's ball screens. It's been
Speaker 1: an issue for him, so it will be a challenge.
Speaker 1: But if he can do an okay job and the
Speaker 1: Lakers can stay with their starters in crunch time again
Speaker 1: gives them their best chance to score on the other
Speaker 1: end and then kind of maintain that confidence level they
Speaker 1: need to be able to win. And again, like I
Speaker 1: mentioned before, if they have to go to a defender,
Speaker 1: the Lakers instantly become way to guard and things just
Speaker 1: fall apart from there. Dlo's off ball attentiveness this is
Speaker 1: part of why Denver is such a bad matchup for
Speaker 1: D'Angelo Russell. He's bad off the ball, especially when it
Speaker 1: comes to locking and trailing shooters and watching out for cutters.
Speaker 1: And so we saw that just the other day against
Speaker 1: the Golden State Warriors when Klay Thompson lit him up.
Speaker 1: Delo just doesn't stay attentive when he's chasing guys off
Speaker 1: of screens. He gets caught late and gives up too
Speaker 1: many open looks. He just has to be better. End
Speaker 1: of story. It's gonna be one of the key factors
Speaker 1: of the series. As I mentioned, that is another way
Speaker 1: for KCP to play D'Angelo Russell off the floor is
Speaker 1: just on both ends of the floor pressure physicality, making
Speaker 1: him struggle offensively, and then on the other end punishing
Speaker 1: him consistently. Denver should keep KCP involved in actions a
Speaker 1: lot early in the series to try to test D'Angelo Russell.
Speaker 1: So Lebron guarding Michael Porter Jr. Is more about resting
Speaker 1: than it is about anything else. I think this series
Speaker 1: eventually needs to tilt towards Lebron and ad guarding yok
Speaker 1: Yokic and Gordon. Ruey does a good job. He tries,
Speaker 1: but he's just not strong enough to deal with Nikola Jokic.
Speaker 1: Obviously neither is Lebron, but he's stronger than Rui and
Speaker 1: can do a better job than Ruy does. So like
Speaker 1: it's fine if you want to start the series with
Speaker 1: Lebron and MPJ and rest him as much as possible,
Speaker 1: but especially in crunch time and potentially for entire games
Speaker 1: later in the series, Lebron is going to have to
Speaker 1: take at least one of Gordon or Jokic, and they're
Speaker 1: gonna have to. And also I believe in mixing up
Speaker 1: coverages just in general as a philosophy. The last two
Speaker 1: games this regular season in February March, they almost exclusively
Speaker 1: went with Ruey on Jokic and just couldn't get any stops. So, like,
Speaker 1: I get it for innings eating, but they're gonna have
Speaker 1: to be able to go to Lebron in ad as
Speaker 1: much as possible. Ruby just can't guard Yokic. I've got
Speaker 1: like a half dozen clips that I'll show you guys
Speaker 1: if Jokic just easily scoring over the top of Ruy
Speaker 1: Hatcha mura Ad had some success blocking Jokic shots behind Ruey,
Speaker 1: but for the most part, the coverage just hasn't worked
Speaker 1: keys for both teams. For the Lakers, the big thing
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be calling out on film is smart help
Speaker 1: versus dumb help. We're gonna go over that on film.
Speaker 1: But again, like there are guys that you just should
Speaker 1: never help off of, and then there are guys that
Speaker 1: you can help and close out short on. Right, there
Speaker 1: are shots that are high priority, shots that are low priority.
Speaker 1: I'll show you guys some examples of bad help and
Speaker 1: good help when we get to the film. But it's
Speaker 1: all gonna be about decision making and game plan discipline
Speaker 1: for the Laker off ball defenders Lebron and Ad like
Speaker 1: I mentioned before, gonna have to take the Yokic assignment
Speaker 1: at some point, especially towards the end of the series.
Speaker 1: Austin and Dila. Austin has to do a credible job
Speaker 1: on Jamal Murray to keep their best offensive lineups on
Speaker 1: the floor, and Dil has to be attentive off the
Speaker 1: ball and then rebounding. Denver got an offensive rebound on
Speaker 1: thirty five percent of their own misses in the three
Speaker 1: matchups this year. That's insane, and it's been a major
Speaker 1: problem for the Lakers throughout this entire matchup. They simply
Speaker 1: have to hold up better on the defensive glass. Give
Speaker 1: you guys an idea Denver dominated fifty five point eight
Speaker 1: to forty four point two in rebound percentage this season.
Speaker 1: Last year in the playoffs, it was less bad, but
Speaker 1: it was still bad. Fifty one point five to forty
Speaker 1: eight point five. Transition defense is gonna be a big one.
Speaker 1: Nikole Jokic is really good identifying when the Lakers don't
Speaker 1: have good floor balance and pushing the ball at the floor.
Speaker 1: Guys like Lebron and Ad in particular have to sprint
Speaker 1: back in transition defense. One of the thing for the Lakers.
Speaker 1: Because Yokis didn't shoot the ball as well this year,
Speaker 1: I would try a short close out on him at
Speaker 1: the three point line just to start the series, and look,
Speaker 1: if he hits a few shots, you adjust, But I
Speaker 1: think you have to try that just as an opportunity
Speaker 1: to see if maybe you can gain some foothold in
Speaker 1: the paint defending their the rest of their offense. I
Speaker 1: would again close out short on yokicch at the three
Speaker 1: point line. Ad help like. I'll give you an example.
Speaker 1: There's a shot that I'll show you guys that Jamal
Speaker 1: Murray hits over Austin Reeves in crunch time of their
Speaker 1: last game this year. With how Yokic has been shooting
Speaker 1: the ball this year, I'd rather have Jokic take a
Speaker 1: three than Jamal Murray take a short fade away that
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna make, you know, over fifty percent
Speaker 1: of the time, and so essentially, like specifically with this
Speaker 1: matchup to start the series, I'd try closing out short. Yes,
Speaker 1: I know Jokic is capable of making him maybe he does.
Speaker 1: If he does, the Lakers can adjust, But I think
Speaker 1: you got to try it on the Nuggets front again,
Speaker 1: play de Lo off the floor and you'll give your
Speaker 1: defense it's best chance to slow down the Lakers. So
Speaker 1: on the offensive end, keep Contavious Cobbo Pope involved in
Speaker 1: actions both on and off the ball to test De
Speaker 1: Loo's attentiveness and see if you can get the quick
Speaker 1: hook there or get get his minutes cut down push
Speaker 1: in transition. Every single time Anthony Davis goes to the
Speaker 1: offensive glass, that's always been a big advantage for the
Speaker 1: Nuggets in this matchup. Attack the offensive glass as much
Speaker 1: as possible as well yourself. That's been a huge part
Speaker 1: of Denver success against the Lakers is the Lakers can't
Speaker 1: keep him off the offensive glass, and then shot making
Speaker 1: once again is going to be key. Jamal making shots
Speaker 1: over the smaller Laker guards in the Nicole Jokic because
Speaker 1: I think the Lakers will try closing out short at him.
Speaker 1: To start, Jokic has to hit those picking pop threes.
Speaker 1: My prediction, I'm picking the Nuggets in six. I think
Speaker 1: this is going like I think this being a first
Speaker 1: round series makes it less likely for the Lakers to
Speaker 1: let go of the rope. Right. They don't get to
Speaker 1: hang their hat on we made it to the Western
Speaker 1: Conference finals. No, if you lose this series it's a
Speaker 1: first round exit. I think that will allow a little
Speaker 1: bit more desperation from the Lakers to try to hold up.
Speaker 1: I think Lebron being better, as well as an evolution
Speaker 1: of their five out offense, gives the Lakers substantially more
Speaker 1: offensive firepower than they had last year. Especially Lebron is
Speaker 1: a jump shooter, so I think the Lakers are going
Speaker 1: to get a game or two off of them. To
Speaker 1: put it simply, though, Yo Kitchen Murray are a better
Speaker 1: duo than Lebron. James and Anthony Davis in my opinion
Speaker 1: at this phase in their careers, and Michael Porter Junior
Speaker 1: and Aaron Gordon are a better trio of role players
Speaker 1: than Austin Di Loo and ruey Ha Cha Mura. So
Speaker 1: I just think the Nuggets are a better team and
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna win. But the pathway for the Lakers,
Speaker 1: that little crack in the door that they can try
Speaker 1: to force their way through, got to win Game one.
Speaker 1: I think they need to give themselves a sense of
Speaker 1: belief that they can win the series. I think the
Speaker 1: worst case scenario would be them getting out executed in
Speaker 1: crunch time of Game one. I think if that happened,
Speaker 1: it would just be too much of a gut blow
Speaker 1: for them to try to recover from. But I think
Speaker 1: winning Game one is key for them, and then I
Speaker 1: think they're gonna need to win every single home game
Speaker 1: in order to try to pull it out in six.
Speaker 1: I think that's their pathway. But they're gonna need unbelievable,
Speaker 1: top tier superstar performances from both Lebron James and Anthony Davis,
Speaker 1: and they need I think they need Jamal Murray to
Speaker 1: fail to reach that level. I think they need Jamal Murray,
Speaker 1: and I think you can do this by wearing him
Speaker 1: out defensively and just kind of crossing your fingers and
Speaker 1: praying you missus shots. But if Jamal Murray plays like
Speaker 1: the sixteenth best player in the world, in this postseason
Speaker 1: instead of the eighth best player in the world in
Speaker 1: this postseason. That I think is an example of where
Speaker 1: the firepower dynamic could shift towards the Lakers, especially if
Speaker 1: Ad plays well. Now, a lot of that is unlikely scenario, right,
Speaker 1: Like I think Darvin Ham needs to make necessary adjustments
Speaker 1: along the way. Do I trust Darvin Hand to do that? No? Right, So,
Speaker 1: like a lot of that is unlikely. But if there
Speaker 1: was a path for the Lakers, that's what it looks like. Alrighty,
Speaker 1: I have twenty nine clips for a film session today
Speaker 1: that we're gonna go to. Go ahead and get started.
Speaker 1: This is an example of the Lakers base coverage that
Speaker 1: they go to. So you're gonna see again, after the
Speaker 1: ball goes up, you're gonna see Anthony Davis, go to
Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon, You're gonna see Ruy Hatchamura guard Nikole Jokich,
Speaker 1: and you're gonna see Lebron James on, Michael Porter Junior.
Speaker 1: And you're gonna see an easy early example here of
Speaker 1: this kind of configuration. So again, Ad is gonna be
Speaker 1: helping off of Aaron Gordon. Jokic is reading the floor here,
Speaker 1: but he's just gonna get to an easy little pop
Speaker 1: shot over the top of Ruy. Just never really struggle
Speaker 1: to get to his spots and make easy shots in
Speaker 1: the paint against Ruey. Here's an example of Aaron Gordon's
Speaker 1: individual defense against Lebron James. Obviously, there's the fadeaway, but
Speaker 1: watch Lebron's gonna hit the Jets on a little baseline
Speaker 1: move here, He's gonna spin baseline and really try to
Speaker 1: overpower Gordon and watch Aaron Gordon absorb the blow Boom,
Speaker 1: absorbs the blow and forces him to turn again. Now
Speaker 1: Lebron's gonna go to his right shoulder fade. I hate
Speaker 1: the shot from Lebron. He hasn't been good at it
Speaker 1: really since the twenty twenty like he was good at
Speaker 1: it in like twenty seventeen to twenty twenty. Those were
Speaker 1: the stretches when he was good at it, But he
Speaker 1: hasn't really been good at it since this is a
Speaker 1: shot that requires a ton of lift. He's actually shooting
Speaker 1: just twenty six percent on right shoulder fades from the
Speaker 1: left block this season. But Aaron Gordon forces an ugly
Speaker 1: miss here. In airball, here's an example of the Lakers
Speaker 1: base coverage actually working. So Ruey does a really nice
Speaker 1: job of making Yokic spin back into Anthony Davis. This
Speaker 1: is about knowing where your help is. So here Rui
Speaker 1: has to understand Anthony Davis is on his left hand side,
Speaker 1: so his main priority is he needs to cut off
Speaker 1: the baseline. Now, you could see Ruy kind of skewing
Speaker 1: towards that baseline side, but Jokic is going to spin
Speaker 1: baseline anyway. Look at Ruey hop way off to that
Speaker 1: baseline side. That forces Yokic to pivot back and Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis is able to get there. Again, that coverage is
Speaker 1: largely not worked, but that's an example of it working.
Speaker 1: Here's an example of making Jamal Murray work on defense.
Speaker 1: Now again, as we see the matchups, Michael Porter Junior
Speaker 1: is guarding Rui. Jokich is on a d Gordon's on lebron.
Speaker 1: This will be CACP on d'angela Russell. But also notice
Speaker 1: they're putting their best permitter defender on d Lo. That's
Speaker 1: kind of like what I was talking about earlier. That's
Speaker 1: going to be their strategy. This is gonna end in
Speaker 1: a switch. Now Ruey has Jamal Murray on him. And
Speaker 1: Ruy just takes him immediately with a spin move along
Speaker 1: the baseline side. Again, not only is that an efficient play,
Speaker 1: but that's a way that you can make Jamal Murray
Speaker 1: work on the defensive end of the floor. And again,
Speaker 1: I don't think you can even do that unless you
Speaker 1: have five good offensive players. And that's why it's going
Speaker 1: to be so key to keep d'angela Russell on the
Speaker 1: floor as much as possible, or at least dangel Russell
Speaker 1: has to play well enough to stay on the floor
Speaker 1: as much as possible. Here's an example of smart help
Speaker 1: versus dumb help. I talked about this with the Lakers.
Speaker 1: They need to make sure that they're helping off the
Speaker 1: right guys in the right situations. So Jamal Murray's going
Speaker 1: to be coming off of a classic little ball screen
Speaker 1: from Yokich and he's going downhill. Lebron James is there
Speaker 1: in help. Lebron is helping there. With Aaron Gordon, d
Speaker 1: Loo can become the low man. D Lo can drop
Speaker 1: down and tag Gordon, which will force Christian Brown to
Speaker 1: shoot a three. Right. This is Michael Porter Junior. This
Speaker 1: is the one guy you don't help off of Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis digs down on Jamal. Now you've got one of
Speaker 1: the best three point shooters in the league wide open.
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray makes the read. Michael Porter Junior knocks down
Speaker 1: the shot. So that's an example of dumb help. That's
Speaker 1: a help that doesn't serve any purpose and leaves the
Speaker 1: wrong guy open. Here's another example of Jokic scoring easily
Speaker 1: over Ruy Hachimura. Big one here is Jokic got blocked
Speaker 1: on his last post up attempt again against Ruy, So
Speaker 1: now watch, he doesn't like the spacing year He's gonna
Speaker 1: clear Gordon out, but he doesn't want Anthony Davis to
Speaker 1: be able to easily get to one of his layup finishes,
Speaker 1: So instead of taking something towards the rim, he's gonna
Speaker 1: take a short fade away. This is a really high
Speaker 1: percentage shot that Anthony Davis can't really help on. That's
Speaker 1: also an example of why I think Lebron James is
Speaker 1: eventually gonna have to get into the mix. Ruy Hachimura
Speaker 1: just can't really guard. Just can't guard Yokich, not even
Speaker 1: make him slightly uncomfortable, whereas Lebron might be able to.
Speaker 1: Here's another example of the Austin Ruy two man game.
Speaker 1: Another switch. Ruey settles for a jumper here, but I
Speaker 1: would like to see them just kind of go to
Speaker 1: this action a lot to make Jamal Murray guard. Here's
Speaker 1: Jokic scoring over Rui again, little wedge screen to get
Speaker 1: post position, just easy gets to his footwork, knocks down
Speaker 1: that little left shoulder fade. Here's an example of where
Speaker 1: that can go wrong for Jokic again. This is another
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis block along the back line. But watch Jokic
Speaker 1: is not taking it over the top shot. He's going
Speaker 1: towards the rim. Notice his last two where turnaround fade
Speaker 1: away over his right shoulder, turn around hook shot over
Speaker 1: his left shoulder from distance. This is going to be
Speaker 1: an aggressive move towards the basket, and ad is gonna
Speaker 1: be able to get to it again. See he goes
Speaker 1: to the rim, Ady gets there. That's where that's where
Speaker 1: like for Jokic, just as an adjustment for him when
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis is in help, he's gonna have to take
Speaker 1: over the top shots. Alrighty, So here is another example
Speaker 1: of a help that I think Spencer Dinwood he should
Speaker 1: have thrown but didn't, so this would have been smart
Speaker 1: help had Spencer did it, but he did not do it.
Speaker 1: So Spencer is guarding Peyton Watson an if he shooter right,
Speaker 1: so Peyton Watson is gonna go stand in the corner.
Speaker 1: Spencer is the in best position to help here. Spencer
Speaker 1: and Ruey are the helpers, right. Jokicch is working against Yo.
Speaker 1: Kitch is working against Ad. He kind of gets Ad
Speaker 1: a little bit onto his left side so he can
Speaker 1: get to a little right handed hook. Ruy probably doesn't
Speaker 1: need to help here because this is literally a ten
Speaker 1: foot hook shot, so one of the lower percentage ones
Speaker 1: that Yokich will take. He obviously can make it, but
Speaker 1: I'd prefer Rui to stay home here. That said, if
Speaker 1: Rui's gonna help Spencer Dinwood, he can't have his back
Speaker 1: turned facing towards the worst shooter on the floor. That
Speaker 1: makes absolutely no sense. That is an example of not
Speaker 1: taking advantage of smart help. Dinwoody should be drypping here
Speaker 1: to help on Gordon because Peyton Watson is not in
Speaker 1: position around the rim, but Gordon is, so when Yokic
Speaker 1: is in his deep drop coverage, shot making is going
Speaker 1: to be key. This is an example of D'Angel Russell
Speaker 1: hitting a little fataway jumper over Justin Holiday in the
Speaker 1: drop coverage. Look, get off our back, yokicches, They're gonna
Speaker 1: need Austin and Delo to hit these shots. Here's an
Speaker 1: example of a cross green set that I really really
Speaker 1: like from Denver, And the main thing that makes this
Speaker 1: set work, in my opinion, is the actual floor setup.
Speaker 1: Notice where everybody is. So we've got eighties guarding Gordon
Speaker 1: in the left corner. Right from here, we have Austin
Speaker 1: Reeves guarding Reggie Jackson. We have Justin Holiday spacing to
Speaker 1: the right corner. We have Christian Brown actually setting the screen.
Speaker 1: Lebron James is actually guarding Christian Brown. He's in help
Speaker 1: at the rim here. But watch as Jokic comes off
Speaker 1: of this screen, Ad ends up having to show right.
Speaker 1: So because Ad has to show here, that leaves an
Speaker 1: easy baseline cut from Aaron Gordon. Now, one of the
Speaker 1: things I'd like to see the Lakers do to counter
Speaker 1: this is have Lebron James be more active in help.
Speaker 1: He kind of took this possession off. That's not going
Speaker 1: to be good enough. But I do love the configuration
Speaker 1: of this set. This is actually a perfect little freeze frame.
Speaker 1: If Ruy's gonna chase, then ad has to show, which
Speaker 1: easily opens up the cut along the baseline side, and
Speaker 1: that's definitely a lob, not a shot. Here's an example
Speaker 1: of D'Angel Russell being inattentive off the ball defensively, So
Speaker 1: Justin Holliday is just gonna come up like he's coming
Speaker 1: off of this this wide pin down, but then he's
Speaker 1: gonna slip watch boom, just easy little back cut on
Speaker 1: Dangel Russell. He's not paying attention, gives up a dunk
Speaker 1: that's just not gonna cut it. In this matchup, Denver
Speaker 1: just makes you pay every single time you make that
Speaker 1: kind of mistake. So one of the reasons why I
Speaker 1: have some optimism for the Lakers in this matchup centers
Speaker 1: around the fact that the Lakers did a bunch of
Speaker 1: stupid stuff over the course of this regular season. Obviously,
Speaker 1: in the matchup earlier in the year, I think it
Speaker 1: was in it was either late January or early February,
Speaker 1: D'Angel Russell didn't play, and the Lakers are just a
Speaker 1: different offensive team when D'ANGELA Russell's not out there. But
Speaker 1: this one, Dilo was healthy and out there. And the
Speaker 1: Lakers starters actually won their minutes in this game, but
Speaker 1: down the stretch of the game, the Darvnham went heavy
Speaker 1: into Cam Reddish, and Cam Reddish is one of the
Speaker 1: worst offensive players in the league in a not very
Speaker 1: good perimeter defender, but he for some reason has a
Speaker 1: reputation with Darvin Haam as being a good perimeter defender.
Speaker 1: Your guess is as good as mine, But I got
Speaker 1: some footage in here just kind of demonstrating that Cam
Speaker 1: Reddish is not actually capable of guarding Jamal Murray. So
Speaker 1: my hope is that we don't see Cam in this
Speaker 1: series just he's not actually staying glued. He's not bothering him,
Speaker 1: he's not pressuring him, he's not making him feel uncomfortable.
Speaker 1: That's like one of the easiest shots he'll ever see
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray take. So here, these next two clips are
Speaker 1: an example of a set that the Lakers can run
Speaker 1: that I think has some success against Denver. These are
Speaker 1: double drag sets, so Lebron's gonna have the ball. This
Speaker 1: is the setup of a double drag, so we've got
Speaker 1: our shooters in the corners. These are both dead eye
Speaker 1: catch and shoot guys that you can't leave open, right
Speaker 1: we Lebron James, our primary ball handler, D'Angelo Russell is
Speaker 1: setting the first screen. Anthony Davis is setting the second screen.
Speaker 1: So what's gonna happen here is AG's gonna chase over
Speaker 1: the top and Yokich is gonna be in a high drop. Right,
Speaker 1: So Gordon's chasing Jokich is on high drop. That means
Speaker 1: because Gordon's on the high drop, uh, or excuse me,
Speaker 1: because yo Kich is in the high drop. That means
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis can slip behind the action. But because you've
Speaker 1: brought the size in Gordon and Jokic out here, it's
Speaker 1: smaller players on the back line. Christian Brown is going
Speaker 1: to stay home to be ready to deal with D'anngela Russell.
Speaker 1: So D'Angel Russell is covered, but ad is getting tagged
Speaker 1: by Jamal Murray and Ady just easily catches and finishes
Speaker 1: at the basket. So the Lakers run it again on
Speaker 1: the very next trip down the floor, and this time
Speaker 1: they switch the first screen. So here we go, same
Speaker 1: exact action. Now, Notice as it's happening, Aaron Gordon is
Speaker 1: now going to allow Christian Brown to take Lebron so
Speaker 1: Christian Brown is trying to fight through that screen. Yokic
Speaker 1: is in the high drop. Here's our high drop configuration.
Speaker 1: But instead Aaron Gordon, instead of prioritizing d LO, he
Speaker 1: prioritizes the role. Why is he prioritizing the role? Because
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis just got a bucket there. Lebron makes the
Speaker 1: kickout pass, Delo misses this shot. That's a fantastic look.
Speaker 1: So double drag with Dlo, Lebron, and AD is going
Speaker 1: to be an action that I'd like to see the
Speaker 1: Lakers run a lot in this series. Here's another example
Speaker 1: of excellent individual defense by Aaron Gordon on Lebron. This
Speaker 1: is going to come out of one of the Lakers'
Speaker 1: favorite sets, which is a little dribble pitch with Lebron
Speaker 1: on the right wing. So what they'll do is we'll
Speaker 1: have Dlo set a little pin down. But this is
Speaker 1: a just basic a dribble pitch to Lebron, and again,
Speaker 1: look at Gordon jump out there. He actually gets out
Speaker 1: there enough. Because Lebron's been one of the best catch
Speaker 1: shoot players in the league this year. As I said,
Speaker 1: he's up at like a point in a quarter per shot.
Speaker 1: So Gordon has to get out there. So look, he's
Speaker 1: caught on this screen. Lebron could catch and shoot, but
Speaker 1: watch this athletic move from Gordon to close the gap.
Speaker 1: Boom that takes away the jumper. Now Lebron sees this
Speaker 1: driving angle and it is trying to attack it. Watch
Speaker 1: Gordon somehow recover and beat him to the spot. Now
Speaker 1: he's beat him to the spot, and now he's turned
Speaker 1: Lebron into the tough fadaway jump shot. Now again, Lebron
Speaker 1: can make that shot, and he has been making that
Speaker 1: shot a lot this season. But Lebron is one of
Speaker 1: the most efficient guys around the basket. So he's turning
Speaker 1: Lebron from the more efficient version of himself into the
Speaker 1: less efficient version of himself. Here's an example of the
Speaker 1: high firepower in the Laker offense. And this is a
Speaker 1: bench group two Atarian Prints and Spencer Dinwoodie out there.
Speaker 1: So we're gonna get multiple actions. We get a little
Speaker 1: brush screen for Spencer Dinwoodie. That's gonna flow into a
Speaker 1: double screen for D'Angelo Russell. Jamal Murray does a good
Speaker 1: job in their high drop. They tag Anthony Davis, Spencer
Speaker 1: dinwood He's not a good enough three point shooter for
Speaker 1: him to be much of a threat. Ball gets swung
Speaker 1: to Torrian Prince Tory and Prince drives kicks the dl
Speaker 1: Delo swings it around to Spencer Dinwoode. Now we're running
Speaker 1: another screening action. We're gonna get a low drop this
Speaker 1: time because Spencer's not as good as a shooter. So
Speaker 1: multiple screening actions, a bunch of ball in player movement,
Speaker 1: and Denver has defended it well. But ball gets swung
Speaker 1: with seven seconds left to Ruy Hotchimura. Ruey hotch Murray
Speaker 1: has a size advantage against Peyton. Watson works his way
Speaker 1: into the lane hits a nice little fadeaway jump shot
Speaker 1: over his right shoulder. So again, this Laker offense is
Speaker 1: a lot more high power than it was last year.
Speaker 1: Just by the way it's configured. Every player on the
Speaker 1: roster in the core group kind of playing better than
Speaker 1: they did last year. It's a big part of why
Speaker 1: I expect them to hold up a little bit better
Speaker 1: offensively in this series. Here's another example of Camretti's just
Speaker 1: not being able to make Jamal Murray uncomfortable. Little hegend
Speaker 1: recover from d Lo. So again he's ball pressuring this
Speaker 1: time at least a little bit. But watch how easily
Speaker 1: Jamal shakes him here and again, like I would understand
Speaker 1: like it was Jared Vanderbilt. Like, let's say Jared Vanderbilt
Speaker 1: returns in this series, and I reached out to my
Speaker 1: guy Jovan Booja and asked him and he said, he's
Speaker 1: still in his conditioning ramp up, So like there's no
Speaker 1: timetable necessarily for him to return. He may not even
Speaker 1: show up in this series. Jared Vanderbilt is the one
Speaker 1: guy where I'm like, oh, he might not be as
Speaker 1: good offensively, but he's actually going to be able to
Speaker 1: make Jamal Murray feel a little bit uncomfortable. That is
Speaker 1: the reason why I would lean that way if he
Speaker 1: was healthy. But I mean, what's crazy with that though?
Speaker 1: Is even Jared Vanderbilt, as limited as he is, is
Speaker 1: a much better offensive player than Cam Reddish because of
Speaker 1: his ability to operate within the five out offense. Again,
Speaker 1: I just like Cam Reddish, good kid, getting a lot
Speaker 1: better over the years, but not really a rotation NBA
Speaker 1: player for a good team should not see the floor
Speaker 1: in the series. Here's an example of some dumb help
Speaker 1: from Spencer Dinwiddie. So Spencer Dinwiddie, you hear, is guarding
Speaker 1: Michael Porter Jr. Michael Porter Junior is gonna come off
Speaker 1: of a screening action on this side of the floor.
Speaker 1: But this is what's bothering me about this specific set,
Speaker 1: So yo, get just setting a little backscreen for Justin Holliday.
Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon's running like a fake DHO with Jamal Murray.
Speaker 1: So you've got Jamal Murray and Justin Holiday coming downhill,
Speaker 1: but you have Lebron James and Anthony Davis there in
Speaker 1: help to contain that action. Spencer Dinwiddie, for some reason,
Speaker 1: stunts in the lane to offer extra help. As soon
Speaker 1: as he does, Michael Porter Junior flashes up high and
Speaker 1: ends up getting a clean look at three as a result,
Speaker 1: or clean look at a jump shot as a result.
Speaker 1: That's the type of attentiveness off the ball and avoiding
Speaker 1: the bad help that I'm talking about. Here's another example
Speaker 1: of the Lebron Austin Reeves two man game and their
Speaker 1: ability to get downhill. So again this is coming against
Speaker 1: Justin Holliday who closed this particular game instead of Christian Brown.
Speaker 1: But I imagine this is contavious Callwell Pope. Also, this
Speaker 1: is when the Lakers had Spencer Dinwoodie and Cam Reddish
Speaker 1: on the floor to non shooters. But just imagine this
Speaker 1: configuration in the actual game. This would be Jamal Murray. Okay,
Speaker 1: this would in all likelihood be D'Angelo Russell. This wouldn't
Speaker 1: urges me. This would be Dangel Russell, and this would
Speaker 1: be ruly hotch to Murray. Right. So, like in this case,
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray's going to be on the ball, which means
Speaker 1: that Contavious Callwell Pope's going to be down here on
Speaker 1: d LO. So with this action, they're not gonna want
Speaker 1: to switch it. So they are going to chase, which
Speaker 1: is going to open up the pocket pass. Gordon is
Speaker 1: going to have to show. Otherwise Aaron Gordon's gonna get
Speaker 1: downhill and that's going to open up little roles to
Speaker 1: the rim for Lebron James. That's an Again, I really
Speaker 1: want to see a lot of Lebron Austin two man
Speaker 1: game in this series, especially when they're with their starting group.
Speaker 1: Another example of Cam Reddi is just not being able
Speaker 1: to guard Jamal Murray. I'm sorry for picking on him,
Speaker 1: I just I'm still irritated about that game. In case
Speaker 1: you guys can't tell, here's an example of Austin Reeves
Speaker 1: hitting a little rescue possession shot over over Jamal Murray.
Speaker 1: I think if Austin can do a little bit of
Speaker 1: this in this series to cancel out some of what
Speaker 1: Jamal does, that would go a long way. So again,
Speaker 1: late clock five seconds left hits a little turnaround jump
Speaker 1: shot over the top of Jamal Murray. That would be
Speaker 1: a big way for Austin to kind of minimize some
Speaker 1: of Jamal's impact. Here's another example of what would probably
Speaker 1: I could go either way on this one, but I'm
Speaker 1: gonna call it bad help. So really getting attacked by
Speaker 1: Jokic Anthony Davis trying to stunt Anthony Davis clearly thinks
Speaker 1: that he's gonna be able to get back in time
Speaker 1: to get to Gordon, but instead Austin Reeves abandons Justin
Speaker 1: Holliday to kind of box Gordon out. When he does,
Speaker 1: there's a wide open three for Justin Holiday. Watch Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis's reaction, He's like, what are you Before it even
Speaker 1: goes in, He's like, what are you doing? So like again,
Speaker 1: part of that's just the predicament that Denver puts you
Speaker 1: in You're gonna get in some trouble there. But those
Speaker 1: are the types of smart help situations where it's like
Speaker 1: Aaron Justin Hallay is a really good corner three point shooter.
Speaker 1: Probably can't leave him there. Probably have to trust Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis to try to clean that up. Here's yet another
Speaker 1: Austin Reeves Lebron James pick and roll again in a
Speaker 1: configuration in closing time. I think you'd imagine this being
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray actually guarding on the ball. One of the
Speaker 1: things I want you to keep an eye on this possession.
Speaker 1: Watch Jamal Murray, hands on knees, hands on knees, hands
Speaker 1: are still on knees, hands are still on knees, and
Speaker 1: a little bit of a lunch step. Hands up. Okay,
Speaker 1: he's completely and totally in chill mode. And like when
Speaker 1: I tell you, he was doing that the entire home
Speaker 1: stretch of the game. That's the downside of going with
Speaker 1: the defensive personnel. So when I talk about how it's
Speaker 1: important for Denver to play d'angela Russell on the floor,
Speaker 1: off the floor, that's why, because if they can play
Speaker 1: the Angela Rouss off the floor, Jamal Murray can chill.
Speaker 1: If Jamal Murray can chill, then Jamal Murray will have
Speaker 1: the legs to make the shots. If you can wear
Speaker 1: them out a little bit, it'll be harder for him
Speaker 1: to make the shots and maybe he'll miss if you
Speaker 1: give yourself a better chance to win the game. But
Speaker 1: watch it one more time, just to see the configuration again.
Speaker 1: Once Lebron sets the screen, it's gonna be that will
Speaker 1: be Jamal Murray chasing over the top. Gordon is gonna
Speaker 1: be in a drop, which is gonna open up Lebron
Speaker 1: James roles to the rim. Here is another example. This
Speaker 1: is crunch time. It's a one point game with three
Speaker 1: minutes left. I really wanted to see the Lakers go
Speaker 1: to Lebron James or Anthony Davis on Jokich at this point,
Speaker 1: but nope, they stick with their base coverage. You get
Speaker 1: what you deserve if you know this is gonna happen
Speaker 1: and you know he can't handle it, like of course,
Speaker 1: like what did you expect like that? He's been doing
Speaker 1: that all games, So like I again, eventually in this series,
Speaker 1: Lebron and Ad are gonna have to take more of
Speaker 1: the onus to garden Kole Jokich. Here's the Jamal Murray
Speaker 1: shot over Austin Reeves. So we're gonna skip down the
Speaker 1: floor again. You could see Yoki's pointing. He's like, Jokic
Speaker 1: knows is like this is going to Jamal. He wants
Speaker 1: Jamal to take it. They're clearing the side. He weighs
Speaker 1: everybody off. He's pointing, telling everyone to clear out. Here
Speaker 1: comes now. Like I talked about earlier, this is where
Speaker 1: I want to see Anthony Davis early in the series
Speaker 1: come down and offer double teams and basically offer late
Speaker 1: closeouts on Jokic, just until he demonstrates that he can
Speaker 1: consistently knock down the three said. They come with baseline
Speaker 1: help from Ruey. This is honestly good defense from everybody involved.
Speaker 1: Austin Jamal hit the same move on Dangela Russell earlier
Speaker 1: in the game and give up a layup here. Austin
Speaker 1: does absorb the contact and force him into a tough
Speaker 1: drifting fade away and Ruey comes over and help. Now, Mindji,
Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon's in really good offensive rebound position there, which
Speaker 1: is another reason why ad needs to come down. But
Speaker 1: this is honestly well defended. But that's a shot that
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray will miss more frequently if his legs are tired.
Speaker 1: You can't have his legs be tired if you have
Speaker 1: him chilling Guardian Cam Reddish on the other end of
Speaker 1: the floor. Once again, watch Jamal Murray and chill mode
Speaker 1: guarding Cam Reddish. He's chilling, he's chilling, he's chilling. We're
Speaker 1: gonna get a Lebron ad pick and roll that Lebron rejects.
Speaker 1: He drops it off to Ad Michael Porter Junior. Really
Speaker 1: nice defensive play at the rim there to block Anthony Davis.
Speaker 1: But just another example of Jamal chilling on Cam Reddish.
Speaker 1: And then here just one more time to add insult
Speaker 1: to injury. Watch how easily Jamal just kind of works
Speaker 1: around Cam and gets all the way down into the lane.
Speaker 1: So yeah, those are the kinds of mistakes schematically that
Speaker 1: the Lakers cannot afford, especially for Darvin Ham to make.
Speaker 1: But anyway you guys can see on film the main
Speaker 1: kind of things I'm talking about, it's gonna be very
Speaker 1: important to keep the Lakers' best offensive players on the floor.
Speaker 1: For Denver, that's gonna be the battle that they need
Speaker 1: to try to win to try to play one of
Speaker 1: the skill players off the floor to give themselves an
Speaker 1: opportunity to chill, for Jamal Murray to chill, which will
Speaker 1: help improve his chances for shot making. You saw the
Speaker 1: damage on the offensive glass, you saw some of the
Speaker 1: transition stuff, you saw some of the matchups. You saw
Speaker 1: the job that Aaron Gordon can do again. I'm picking
Speaker 1: Denver to win, but I do think the Lakers have
Speaker 1: a chance, and I am expecting it to be a
Speaker 1: longer series. I think the biggest game of the series
Speaker 1: is Game one. I think if the Lakers are gonna
Speaker 1: have any chance to win this series, they have to
Speaker 1: go in and win Game one. We will be going
Speaker 1: live on YouTube after the final buzzer on Saturday of
Speaker 1: Game one of this series, so make sure you guys
Speaker 1: head over to YouTube and to see it there. Hope
Speaker 1: you guys enjoyed the breakdown. The game plan as of
Speaker 1: right now is tonight. We're going live after six re seat,
Speaker 1: so I will see you guys on YouTube. Then the
Speaker 1: volume