1 00:00:04,000 --> 00:00:08,320 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Bloomberg eleven, Rio to Washington, 2 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg, Well under It, to 3 00:00:12,600 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: San Francisco Bloomberg nine to the country, US Exam General 4 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: one nineteen and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:25,840 Speaker 1: append Bloomberg got on this is taking stock consumer confidence. 6 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 1: It rose in June to an eight month high. I 7 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: don't know if any Brexit impact was in there. We're 8 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 1: gonna speaking with Lynn Franco, She's director of Economic Indicators 9 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 1: at the conference Sport. I'm Kathleen Hayes, my co host 10 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:43,880 Speaker 1: Pim Fox on vacation this week, and that investor confidence, 11 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:47,159 Speaker 1: confidence in the stock market battered by the volatility from Brexit. 12 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 1: How about the impact of the presidential race and the 13 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 1: odds of who wins and who doesn't. What does that 14 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 1: mean about investing in the capital markets? What does it 15 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: mean for the broader global economy. We're gonna be think 16 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 1: about all that and more in the next half hour. 17 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 1: Now we're gonna be hearing from Catherine Caddie. She is 18 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:10,759 Speaker 1: in the newsroom with a bloom Brick business flash. Thank you, Kathleen. Well, 19 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 1: the stock market is climbing for the first time since 20 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: Britain voted to withdraw from the European Union. There's speculation 21 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 1: that policy makers will take steps to limit any economic 22 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 1: fallout the UK's decision last week twigger to rush towards 23 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:26,360 Speaker 1: safe Hagan's Global Equities lost about three point six trillion 24 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 1: dollars in market value and the smp FA under tumbled 25 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 1: five point Mark Hayfully, Global Chief Investment Office for at 26 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 1: UBS Wealth Management, makes the case for diversification. We've had 27 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:40,960 Speaker 1: political uncertainty before these events, and we'll have them after. 28 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 1: I think the main point for investors is that as 29 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 1: we go further out into these experimental central bank policies 30 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 1: and referendums, you have to be diversified. Diversified across political 31 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 1: economic regimes in the world. We check the markets every 32 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 1: fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. Down industrial average is 33 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: of one hundred forty six point seven eights of a percent. 34 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 1: Trading at seventeen thousand, two hundred eighty six, smp F 35 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 1: I founded up twenty one points, a gain of one percent. 36 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,920 Speaker 1: It's trading at two thousand, twenty one nasac hire by 37 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 1: sixty seven points one and a half percent. Trading at 38 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 1: forty six sixty one West Texas Center via crude oil 39 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: up a dollar fifty five of barrel three point three 40 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: percent to forty seven eighty nine spout bill down six 41 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:25,079 Speaker 1: dollars ninety sents announced to thirteen seventeen eighty ten year 42 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 1: treasury down six thirty seconds with the yield of one 43 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:31,399 Speaker 1: point four five percent. Among today's top business stories, Volkswagen 44 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 1: has agreed to spend more than fifteen billion dollars to 45 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:37,519 Speaker 1: get hundreds of thousands of emissions cheating diesel vehicles off 46 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 1: at US roads into playcate regulators. And now let's get 47 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 1: a look at some of the other stories were following. 48 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:47,080 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio. Thank you Catherine from the Bloomberg newsroom. 49 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 1: I'm Julie Hyman. British Prime Minister David Cameron met with 50 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 1: fellow European Union leaders today for the first time since 51 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,080 Speaker 1: last week's vote to leave the EU. Cameron says the 52 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 1: UK may be breaking up with Europe, but he hopes 53 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,359 Speaker 1: they'll continue to do good business. I very much hope 54 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 1: will seek the closest possible relationship in sums of trade 55 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: and cooperation and security, because that is good for US. 56 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 1: And that is good for them, and that's the spirit 57 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 1: to wish the discussions I think will be held today. 58 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 1: The British PM has indicated the UK could wait until 59 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 1: October to begin the process, but European lawmakers are calling 60 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:22,680 Speaker 1: for an immediate exit as they try to call markets 61 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 1: and prevent other countries from following suit. Scottish EU member 62 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 1: Alan Smith says Scotland voted to remain in the EU 63 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 1: and wants to keep it that way. Scotland did not 64 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 1: let you down. Please, I thank you, chaper do not 65 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 1: let Scotland turned no. Well. Many greeted Smith's remarks with 66 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:46,839 Speaker 1: a standing ovation. UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage, who 67 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: had campaign for Brexit, remained seated. The winning is coach 68 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 1: in Division one college basketball history has died. Former Tennessee 69 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 1: coach Pat's Summit was sixty four years old. She had 70 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 1: been battling dementia sum at one eight national championships. The 71 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: city's rent Guidelines Board voted last night in favor of 72 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 1: a monthly increase for stabilized apartments. The board approved to 73 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 1: freeze for one year leases and a two percent increase 74 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 1: on two year leases. Neither side was happy. Tenants were 75 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:17,599 Speaker 1: looking for a rent rollback, while landlords wanted increases on 76 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,920 Speaker 1: both one and two year leases. Global News twenty four 77 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: hours a day, powered by more than twenty undred journalists 78 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 1: and analysts in more than one hundred and twenty countries 79 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:29,800 Speaker 1: from the Bloomberg Newsroom. I'm Julie Hyman. This is Bloomberg, Catherine, 80 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:33,279 Speaker 1: Thank you, And now let's get a quick check of 81 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 1: the equity markets. Down Industrial laverage of one hundred sixty 82 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 1: nine points at seventeen thousand, three hundred nine smp F 83 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 1: I founded up twenty three point at two thousand, twenty four. 84 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 1: NASDAC higher by seventy three trading at forty six sixty seven. 85 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:50,719 Speaker 1: And that's a Bloomberg business flash. You're listening to taking 86 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:54,799 Speaker 1: stock with pin Box at Kathleen As on Bloomberg Radio. 87 00:04:55,560 --> 00:05:00,359 Speaker 1: As Federal Reserve officials and investors who are bullish in 88 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 1: the stock market continue to keep their fingers crossed. Where 89 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 1: a consumer that were power the US economy to a 90 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:10,559 Speaker 1: higher rate of growth in the second quarter, a higher 91 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 1: rate of growth in the second half. The focus is 92 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 1: on consumer confidence today, very closely watched number from the 93 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:23,039 Speaker 1: conference board here in New York. It climbed to in 94 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 1: June from a revised nine two point four in May. 95 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 1: And there are some good signs within the report suggesting 96 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: the consumers are feeling pretty good about the future. Here 97 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 1: now to explain what's in the report, what it means 98 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 1: we're spending for the economy. And Moore is Lynn Franco. 99 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 1: She is Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board. 100 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:45,920 Speaker 1: Thanks for coming into daily and you're quite welcome. So 101 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 1: there's two sub components. There's the present condition, what's going 102 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:51,720 Speaker 1: on in the economy now, and what do you expect 103 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:54,800 Speaker 1: for the future. How did those two indexes or indicase 104 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 1: should I say, shake out? Well, we had a rebound 105 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: in both, which is always good news in terms of 106 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:04,160 Speaker 1: the present situation. What we saw really was not so 107 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 1: much sort of enhanced optimism as sort of a decline 108 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:09,680 Speaker 1: into pessimism a little bit sort of. I guess I 109 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:13,040 Speaker 1: would say we're consumers saying we're still cruising along more 110 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:16,839 Speaker 1: or less at the same speed. In terms of their expectations, 111 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 1: they're cautiously more optimistic. We even had to bump up 112 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 1: an income and I think that will bolde well for 113 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:24,920 Speaker 1: spending in the quarters to come. In fact, let's underscore 114 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:29,360 Speaker 1: that consumer expectations gauge looking at the next six months. UH. 115 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 1: People are are are pushing that part to eighty four 116 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,720 Speaker 1: point five from seventy eight point five, and many condoms 117 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 1: that I've spoken to say that if there is a 118 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 1: one part of this report that correlates well to spending 119 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 1: even more than present conditions, it's the expectations index. When 120 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 1: you get a bump like that, it supports those who 121 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 1: are saying, no, consumers, consumers doing a bit better now, right, 122 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 1: And I think, you know, we're all sort of anticipating 123 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 1: the second quarter consumer expenditure figures, which showed I think 124 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:01,039 Speaker 1: a bump up and consumers ending, and I think the 125 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:04,360 Speaker 1: fact that we see income expectations increasing now and it's 126 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 1: you know, back to back two months, I think, you know, consumers, 127 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:09,280 Speaker 1: I mean, there's still gonna be a little cautious and 128 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 1: they're spending decisions, but I think we're going to continue 129 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: to see spending help boost GDP. Well, of course that's 130 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 1: very important, isn't Because you're alluding to we did get 131 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:20,360 Speaker 1: the latest number on first one fact, to get the 132 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 1: final one in the first quarter GDP number, UH, it 133 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 1: was revised up to one point one percent from zero 134 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: point eight. However, the all important personal consumption expenditures basically people, 135 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 1: that's all the stuff you spend money on, was revised 136 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:36,679 Speaker 1: down to one and a half percent from one point 137 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 1: nine percent. So all the more focused now on what's 138 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 1: going on in the second quarter. Of course, June is 139 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 1: the last month of the second quarter, right right, And 140 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 1: I think early estimates are that we've had a nice 141 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 1: bump up in the second quarter. Um. And so I 142 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 1: think our you know, income expectations is running parallel to 143 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 1: what we expect to see there. And you know, it 144 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 1: just remains to see what happened, if there's any fall 145 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 1: at with Brexit, if it calls any type of pullback 146 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 1: and expectations, even though it might be very temporary. We've 147 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 1: seen the market at least begin to bounce back today, 148 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 1: so that's good news. UM. So that might be sort 149 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,360 Speaker 1: of a little headwind that confidence may face in the 150 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 1: next month or so. Labor market, the big the key 151 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 1: question is our jobs are more plentiful, are the same 152 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:21,960 Speaker 1: or hard to get a little bit of mixed back 153 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 1: there too, Yes, And I think that's because we've seen 154 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,280 Speaker 1: a slow down and employment growth and some of our 155 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 1: other indicators show that that's going to persist. I think 156 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:32,959 Speaker 1: it's still be enough to support confidence levels. And we're 157 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 1: seeing you know, ways growth as well, so that will 158 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:40,239 Speaker 1: help support confidence and consumption. As you oversee the Conference 159 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 1: boards US Consumer Confidence report, I know you're also watching 160 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:47,959 Speaker 1: consumer confidence around the world. What does the Conference Board 161 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: expect to see in the UK when it comes to 162 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:53,720 Speaker 1: consumer confidence when it comes to business confidence, one can 163 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:56,960 Speaker 1: only imagine that once you do the surveys after the vote, 164 00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 1: you could have some gigantic drops a lutely, and I 165 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 1: think any time that you have uncertainty, that impacts both 166 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 1: you know, consumer confidence and business confidence much more pronounced 167 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 1: obviously in Europe than it is right here in the 168 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 1: United States. So I think we're sort of okay for 169 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:16,960 Speaker 1: the time being. We'll see, obviously confidence both consumer and 170 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 1: business take a hit, probably in in the euro Area 171 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: and in the UK as well as for the US 172 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 1: survey UM buying plans. What stands out to from that 173 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:30,839 Speaker 1: part of the survey. I think we're sort of moving 174 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 1: a little bit sideways there. I mean, you know, we 175 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: do have sort of our month to month fluctuations. However, 176 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 1: I think we're a little bit stronger than we were 177 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 1: last year, and I think that's directly due to the 178 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:44,079 Speaker 1: housing market. We continue to see improvements there, and obviously 179 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: if consumers buy a home, they have to furnish a home. 180 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 1: So I think the outlook for that particular area remains 181 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 1: quite positive. Know, the Federal Reserve watches this survey, this 182 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:56,200 Speaker 1: report very closely. Uh what what do you think they'll 183 00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 1: be taking away from this? No chance of rate hike 184 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 1: this year is now at the markets, and there's now 185 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:03,680 Speaker 1: that people are on the fringes starting to talk about 186 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 1: a right cut. Right. I think what we're gonna see 187 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:10,200 Speaker 1: is no rate increases this year. If anything, the earliest 188 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:12,559 Speaker 1: would be December. But with all the all the uncertainty 189 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 1: that's evolved over the last week or so, I don't 190 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:17,320 Speaker 1: think the Fed is going to raise anytime soon. Maybe 191 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 1: you should do a survey just of Fed officials, get 192 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 1: their get their confidence index. That would be quite interesting, Okay, 193 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:26,120 Speaker 1: I think it would do well. Lynn Frankel, you work 194 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:30,560 Speaker 1: on that, Okay. Well, she's director of Economic Indicators at 195 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:33,320 Speaker 1: the Conference Board based here in New York City. June 196 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:36,680 Speaker 1: consumer confidence sitting an eight month high and says it's 197 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 1: it's steadily moving along. No big move towards a higher 198 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:43,839 Speaker 1: level of confidence, but high enough to ensure pretty much 199 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 1: or at least suggest that spending could hold up in 200 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 1: the second quarter and do better than the first quarter. 201 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 1: I'm Cathleen Hayes pim Fox on vacation this week, so 202 00:10:52,559 --> 00:11:01,200 Speaker 1: I'm taking stock today right here on Bloomberg Radio. The 203 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 1: presidential race. If Donald Trump wins, what does that mean 204 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: for the stock market? Off Hillary Clinton winds? What does 205 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 1: that mean? Ken Fisher had of Fisher investments? Coming up 206 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:12,559 Speaker 1: now on Bloomberg Radio.