Speaker 1: The Volume. All right, welcome to you tonight here at
Speaker 1: the Volume. Happy Wednesday, everybody. We are one day away
Speaker 1: from the start of the NBA Finals, And after much deliberation,
Speaker 1: after much film, after mail bags, after everything, We're finally
Speaker 1: going to do our prediction show today. So I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go over the five things that I expect to see
Speaker 1: in this series, just five kind of general predictions of
Speaker 1: things that I think we'll see. And then lastly, at
Speaker 1: the end of the show, I will give you guys
Speaker 1: my pick for the twenty twenty four NBA Finals. You
Speaker 1: guys know the drill before we get started, to subscribe
Speaker 1: to the Hoops and I YouTube channels. You don't miss
Speaker 1: any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Underscore Jason lt so you guys don't missho announcements. Don't
Speaker 1: forget about a podcast feed where you get your podcasts
Speaker 1: under Hoops Tonight. And then, last but not least, keep
Speaker 1: dropping mailbag questions and those YouTube comments. We keep hitting
Speaker 1: them throughout the series and over the course of the
Speaker 1: off seats. All right, let's talk some basketball. So five
Speaker 1: things I expect to see in the twenty twenty four
Speaker 1: NBA Finals between Boston and Dallas number one. I expect
Speaker 1: Luca to look very comfortable. We just saw against Minnesota's
Speaker 1: defensive personnel with Jade McDaniels, who, again I don't think
Speaker 1: he's as big and strong. Obviously, he's not as big
Speaker 1: and strong as Tatum, who will present a different type
Speaker 1: of physical challenge to Luca. But we saw Kyle Anderson,
Speaker 1: who's a similar type of physical build. We saw Jaden McDaniels.
Speaker 1: We saw a lot of really good defensive personnel on
Speaker 1: Luca and a substantially better rim protector in Rudy Gobert
Speaker 1: than anybody that Boston brings to the table. And Luca
Speaker 1: looked really comfortable. Thirty two points per game, He's forty
Speaker 1: seven percent from the field forty three percent from three
Speaker 1: on eleven attempts per game in that series against Minnesota.
Speaker 1: So I think Luca is gonna look more or less
Speaker 1: similar in terms of his command of the series in
Speaker 1: this particular matchup. His knee looked better, He looked more
Speaker 1: or less one hundred percent to me. He's also had
Speaker 1: a full week of rest since then to kind of
Speaker 1: keep things sharp and healthy. So like I expect luculd
Speaker 1: look to look comfortable and then also Boston's pick and
Speaker 1: roll defense is the weak point of their defense. They
Speaker 1: obviously Porzingis being out had an impact on the metrics,
Speaker 1: but even with Porzingis in the lineup, that's the one
Speaker 1: week point in Boston's defense. They have defenders that do
Speaker 1: okay in switches they like I think Al Horford does
Speaker 1: better on switches than a guy like Porzingis, but Porzingis
Speaker 1: is much better at the rim. But neither of them
Speaker 1: presents that unique capability that a Rudy Gobert or some
Speaker 1: other guys around the league that can defend in a
Speaker 1: deep drop, defend at the level, and defend in switches,
Speaker 1: and so I expect a lot of attacking there. Now,
Speaker 1: Boston's gonna have counters like we talked about in the
Speaker 1: film Sessions, I expect to see Christops Porzingis on PJ.
Speaker 1: Washington for the majority of the series, But in general,
Speaker 1: I think that Luca is gonna look to attack that
Speaker 1: specific opening throughout the series, and I do think he
Speaker 1: will look comfortable. Number two, PJ. Washington's three point shooting
Speaker 1: will be the main swing factor for the Dallas Mavericks. Again,
Speaker 1: as we talked about with Porzingis, on PJ Washington. The
Speaker 1: simple problem that presents for Dallas is if he rolls
Speaker 1: into the lane on ball screens against Porzingis, he's just
Speaker 1: not the vertical spacer that Daniel Gafford or Derek Lively is.
Speaker 1: If he pops to the three point line, he's a
Speaker 1: twenty nine and a half percent above the break three
Speaker 1: point shooter in this postseason run over forty one percent
Speaker 1: from the corners. But by virtue of just the way
Speaker 1: pick and roll works, when you pop to the three
Speaker 1: point line, generally speaking, it's an above the break three,
Speaker 1: and it would just be really difficult to configure that
Speaker 1: to end in a corner three for PJ. Washington anyway.
Speaker 1: And so PJ. Washington's ability to knock down above the
Speaker 1: break threes, or to drive those closeouts and hit floaters
Speaker 1: and make plays off the bounce, that is going to
Speaker 1: be a huge swing factor for Dallas's offense in the series,
Speaker 1: because he is going to be the entry point for
Speaker 1: them to attack Boston's defense through Porzingis or Wharford, whoever's
Speaker 1: on the floor. Number three, porzingis Is three point shooting
Speaker 1: will be the main swing factor for Boston. One of
Speaker 1: the main elements to Dallas's defense. They are a load
Speaker 1: up defense. They want to keep their rim protectors at
Speaker 1: the rim. They want to shrink the floor on ball handlers,
Speaker 1: and leave openings at the three point line, usually on
Speaker 1: the opposite end of the four, specifically in pick and roll.
Speaker 1: Gafford and Lively have been guarding a role man in
Speaker 1: Rudy Gobert that has bad hands, that struggles to finish layups.
Speaker 1: He shot below fifty percent on layups in this postseason run. Right, So,
Speaker 1: like totally different type of offensive threat in Chrisops. Porzingis
Speaker 1: even than chet Holmgren, who shot just twenty two percent
Speaker 1: from three in the Dallas Maverick series. Right, So, like
Speaker 1: porzingis who's shooting forty percent from three in the four
Speaker 1: playoff games he's played this year and I think thirty
Speaker 1: eight percent for the season. Just a completely different threat
Speaker 1: and specifically is comfortable and confident shooting out well beyond
Speaker 1: the above the break line, like out to like twenty
Speaker 1: six twenty seven feet. He's pretty comfortable, and so Blively
Speaker 1: and Gafford if they're going to protect the rim in
Speaker 1: ball screens and in just straight iso post up situations
Speaker 1: where they're just helping off of Porzingis, They're going to
Speaker 1: have to concede those threes. I believe they will concede
Speaker 1: them to start the series right. If Porzingis starts hitting,
Speaker 1: that will force Dallas to abandon a lot of their
Speaker 1: core defensive concepts and change the way that they look
Speaker 1: to guard a lot of this stuff. So Porzingis's three
Speaker 1: point shooting is going to be huge. If his efficiency
Speaker 1: dips to the point where it's it's tendable for Dallas
Speaker 1: to leave him open, or if Porzingis loses confidence, that
Speaker 1: could be a massive swing in Dallas's favor over the
Speaker 1: course of the series. We've seen good shooters on great
Speaker 1: teams lose confidence in the finals before even in for
Speaker 1: the champion. Last year, Michael Porter Junior struggled for Denver.
Speaker 1: Michael Porter Junior struggled again this year in the Minnesota Series,
Speaker 1: right like Harrison Barnes in the twenty sixteen finals. We've
Speaker 1: seen guys that can shoot go ice cold in the
Speaker 1: NBA Finals and just the pressure of that stage, in
Speaker 1: that situation, and if that happens to Porzingis, that would
Speaker 1: be a huge swing in Dallas's favor, especially if it
Speaker 1: continued along to Horford number four, Jason Tatum's impact will
Speaker 1: extend well on the box score. I'm not interested in
Speaker 1: having a conversation about how well Tatum is playing in
Speaker 1: this series that focuses solely on the box score. It's
Speaker 1: a factor he will need to produce offensively. But if
Speaker 1: he's at twenty five points per game in the series
Speaker 1: on you know, the call it sixty percent true shooting,
Speaker 1: but it seems like he's not as involved offensively. That
Speaker 1: probably has a lot to do with the way he's
Speaker 1: being guarded in all of the defensive responsibility that he
Speaker 1: has in this group. Obviously, if he goes into the
Speaker 1: series and he averages twenty two points per game and
Speaker 1: shoots like thirty seven percent from the field, that's a
Speaker 1: different story. But make sure that we pay attention over
Speaker 1: the course of the series of all the little things
Speaker 1: that Tatum does to make this team function on the
Speaker 1: offensive end of the floor, with him being the entry
Speaker 1: point to because he's one of their best playmakers, probably
Speaker 1: the best playmaker on the team. With him running guard
Speaker 1: action with Derek White and Drew Holliday to attack Luka
Speaker 1: Doncic get the defense in rotation with simple playmaking, and
Speaker 1: then everything he can do on the defensive end of
Speaker 1: the floor between being the low man switching on to
Speaker 1: anybody switching on to Luca Tatum is a Swiss Army
Speaker 1: knife and needs to be covered in that specific way.
Speaker 1: It's a very different type of series this. I used
Speaker 1: to run into this all the time with comparing Lebron
Speaker 1: to some of these other guys at the top of
Speaker 1: the league, Like what Luca does for Dallas is very
Speaker 1: different than what Jason Tatum does for Boston, and so
Speaker 1: just zeroing in on box score numbers I don't think
Speaker 1: is a fair way to characterize their roles in this series.
Speaker 1: And then lastly, I think we will see multiple Boston
Speaker 1: blowouts in this series. I'm not going to get into
Speaker 1: the specifics why because I want to save it for
Speaker 1: my prediction but or my actual pick for the series.
Speaker 1: But one of my big predictions for the series, I
Speaker 1: think we will see multiple games where Boston wins in
Speaker 1: the game is over in the early fourth quarter. I
Speaker 1: think that's just going to be a recurring theme. I
Speaker 1: think we're going to see at least two of them
Speaker 1: over the course of the series. So here's my prediction
Speaker 1: I'm picking Boston in six games, and my reasoning is
Speaker 1: pretty simple. I think that Dallas's defense, even though it
Speaker 1: is an elite defense, is a little bit dependent on
Speaker 1: loading up on the strong side. Go through their match
Speaker 1: in the first three rounds with the Clippers. If you
Speaker 1: Kazubas non shooter, Terrence Man, guy who can knock down
Speaker 1: threes but not a super aggressive three point shooter, Russell
Speaker 1: Westbrook bad three point shooter. PJ. Tucker bad three point shooter,
Speaker 1: go to the Thunder series. Lou Dort and Josh Gitty
Speaker 1: were guys that you weren't necessarily concerned about chasing off
Speaker 1: the line. Chet Holmgren had a bad shooting series, even
Speaker 1: Kesan Wallace and Aaron Wiggins struggled to shoot so they
Speaker 1: could really load up the strong side. For the Timberwolves,
Speaker 1: Rudy Gobaert non shooter, Jada McDaniels the guy they weren't
Speaker 1: particularly worried about, Nikile, Alexander Walker, guy they weren't worried about.
Speaker 1: Kyle Anderson, non shooter. That is not what you're dealing
Speaker 1: with with Boston. All eight of their core rotation players,
Speaker 1: including the core guys Derek White, Drew Aliday, Jason Tatum,
Speaker 1: Jaylen Brown, Porzingis Horford off the bench, Peyton Pritchard, and
Speaker 1: Sam Hauser. That's probably going to be the core eight
Speaker 1: guys you see in the series. All eight of them
Speaker 1: are guys that you basically can't leave open, and so
Speaker 1: it's just a fundamentally different type of defensive situation that
Speaker 1: they are in. Boston, in my opinion, is going to
Speaker 1: force Dallas out of their core defensive ski and really
Speaker 1: challenge their depth of personnel that can contain on the perimeter.
Speaker 1: What does that mean When you can load up on
Speaker 1: the strong side, you can ask a guard to chase
Speaker 1: over the top like a Derek Jones junior, you can
Speaker 1: maintain your your best available matchups, and you can have
Speaker 1: one elite perimeter defender like Derek Jones Junior do just
Speaker 1: such a great job on Ant that it kind of
Speaker 1: changes the series, right or PJ. Washington do a good
Speaker 1: job on Karl Anthony Towns. That's not what it's going
Speaker 1: to be like against Boston. It is going to be
Speaker 1: a down the roster job of containing on the perimeter
Speaker 1: in a far more spaced out environment. And I do
Speaker 1: not think Dallas is that type of defense. Interestingly enough,
Speaker 1: I don't think Boston is a very good load up
Speaker 1: the strong side type of defense because they're not a
Speaker 1: great rim protection team, right, and they're a little bit
Speaker 1: smaller on the perimeter. But I think Boston is an
Speaker 1: excellent spread the floor contain on the perimeter depth of
Speaker 1: perimeter defense type of team. These are two very different defenses.
Speaker 1: Boston is actually like really well equipped to guard themselves, right,
Speaker 1: because you'd be comfortable with Jalen Brown guarding a guy,
Speaker 1: Jayden guarding a guy, Drew Hollidy guarding a guy, Derek
Speaker 1: White guarding a guy that is not the type of
Speaker 1: build that Dallas has, and so, like, I want to
Speaker 1: be clear, I expect Luca to look great, and I
Speaker 1: think Dallas's offense will function for stretches of the series.
Speaker 1: I think they'll win games in the series. I just
Speaker 1: think Boston's gonna get good looks more consistently. Back to
Speaker 1: that fifth prediction that I had, I think there will
Speaker 1: be nights when Boston's hitting their threes and they run
Speaker 1: Dallas out of the gym. As I mentioned, I think
Speaker 1: there will be at least two Boston wins in this
Speaker 1: series where the game is over in the early fourth quarter.
Speaker 1: I think Dallas's wins will be more grind out, like
Speaker 1: stuck in the half court, lower scoring Luca out execute
Speaker 1: some type of games. But to be clear, Boston's a
Speaker 1: really good clutch team too. These two teams actually ranked
Speaker 1: third and fourth in net rating and clutch situations in
Speaker 1: the regular season, ranked with the entire NBA. These are
Speaker 1: both elite clutch teams and so like. If Boston actually
Speaker 1: steals one or two of the clutch games early in
Speaker 1: the series, that's where Dallas could be in real trouble.
Speaker 1: One other thing, Boston is the more experienced team. Tatum, Morford, Brown,
Speaker 1: and Derek White have all played in the finals. Drew
Speaker 1: Holliday literally won the Finals in twenty twenty one. They
Speaker 1: should be relatively comfortable in this setting, while there might
Speaker 1: be some jitters on the Dallas front. If I had
Speaker 1: to guess a pathway for how I think the series
Speaker 1: is gonna go, I think Dallas will steal one in Boston.
Speaker 1: If I had to guess, I'll go with Game two,
Speaker 1: and then I think Boston will steal one in Dallas.
Speaker 1: If I had the guess, I'd go with Game four,
Speaker 1: and then I think Boston will win games five and six.
Speaker 1: So if I had to pick game by game, that
Speaker 1: means I think Boston's gonna win Game one, Dallas, Game two,
Speaker 1: Dallas Game three, Boston Game four, Boston Game five, Boston
Speaker 1: Game six, more or less a similar pathway to what
Speaker 1: happened to Boston in the twenty twenty two finals. That's
Speaker 1: kind of how I see it going at this point.
Speaker 1: I want to be clear, like Dallas very much has
Speaker 1: a chance to win this series. This isn't me saying
Speaker 1: Boston is one hundred percent going to win and Dallas
Speaker 1: is a bunch of bums. But in two elite teams,
Speaker 1: I think it is a matchup that favors Boston. I
Speaker 1: also think Boston is a little bit better on both
Speaker 1: ends of the I like that they have home court advantage.
Speaker 1: I like that they're a little bit more experienced. I
Speaker 1: think Boston is more likely to win the series, and
Speaker 1: so I am picking Boston to win in six games.
Speaker 1: All Right, it's out there, it's in the ether. If
Speaker 1: we're gonna cover the games, I'm excited for it. I
Speaker 1: will see you guys tomorrow night. After the final buzzer.
Speaker 1: The volume