1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,200 Speaker 1: The Favorite podcast is presented by fan Duel sports Book. 2 00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:06,080 Speaker 1: There's no better place to bet the action than on 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,160 Speaker 1: FanDuel Sports Book during the football season. They're America's number 4 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:12,400 Speaker 1: one sports book with an easy to use app that's 5 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 1: safe and secure, and when I win, I get paid 6 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,800 Speaker 1: out in as little as two hours. And this season, 7 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:22,800 Speaker 1: fandel Sports Book is making betting easy for everyone with 8 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 1: great promos like risk free bets, enhanced odds markets, same 9 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: game parlays, and more. So if you're new, just download 10 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 1: the FanDuel Sports Book app to get started and sign 11 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:36,200 Speaker 1: up with promo code Favorites so they know I sent 12 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 1: you. You You must be twenty one or older and president 13 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 1: in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia 14 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 1: or West Virginia. Gambling problem called one eight hundred next 15 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:51,120 Speaker 1: step or text next step to five two in Arizona 16 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: one eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or 17 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 1: visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight 18 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: hundred ambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash r g 19 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:07,039 Speaker 1: in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Virginia one eight seven zero 20 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 1: seven for confidential help. In Michigan called the Tennessee Red 21 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 1: Line at one eight eight eight nine, or visit one 22 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:27,120 Speaker 1: eight hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to 23 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:30,320 Speaker 1: the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I'm 24 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 1: Chad Mellman, sh Content Officer of the Action Network. It 25 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 1: is Thursday. It is time for me in my BFF, 26 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: my companion Mike and Padre Professional Better Sigmon Hunter to 27 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:44,440 Speaker 1: get into it to lock it down. We'll go through 28 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 1: sharp calls, We'll go through the money line, Parlay, will 29 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 1: go through our big balls better the week, we will 30 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 1: nail down our five plays that we liked the most 31 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 1: or at least get pretty close. Reminder that only took 32 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:00,840 Speaker 1: us four months to do it. But you can follow 33 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 1: our five favorite plays in the Action Network gap downloaded 34 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 1: for free. Follow go to the follow tab on the 35 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 1: bottom of the navigation the Faves five. The Faves five 36 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:16,639 Speaker 1: follow that. Starting this Sunday, It's where we will put 37 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 1: our picks in. We usually do it in the eleven 38 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 1: thirty to twelve range. Simon Hunter, So buddy, Merry Christmas, 39 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 1: Happy Holidays, all the above. If you're not going to 40 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 1: see the video for this, Simon is wearing a very 41 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:35,080 Speaker 1: festive Philadelphia Eagles branded Santa had I was gonna ask you, 42 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:36,640 Speaker 1: do you feel in the mood this year? It's differently. 43 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:38,240 Speaker 1: I feel like because the climate change, we don't get 44 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:40,800 Speaker 1: any snow anymore, but I don't know what the lights around. 45 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:42,519 Speaker 1: I still feel a little bit in the move, but 46 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:44,839 Speaker 1: it's just different with those snow. Definitely, it's a little 47 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 1: different without the snow, without the gray skies, without sort 48 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 1: of the feeling of hunkering down. And to be honest, personally, 49 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 1: COVID is wreaking havoc. With all the plans that our 50 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 1: family had for the holidays and what we were going 51 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:02,080 Speaker 1: to do, and between that and my kid breaking his 52 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 1: leg and having a hard time traveling, it's gonna be weird. 53 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:06,799 Speaker 1: I mean I I might not be able to see 54 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,359 Speaker 1: my parents either because of COVID stuff. So it's definitely 55 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:11,639 Speaker 1: gonna be a weird holiday. But I can get boosted, 56 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:15,079 Speaker 1: get boosted, do what we can take horse medicine, do 57 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: whatever you gotta do. Don't take horse medicine. Don't listen 58 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 1: to Simon. One thing that you should listen to Simon about. 59 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:23,639 Speaker 1: We've said this all season long, and we're going to 60 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,640 Speaker 1: get into everything, But there is something very Betty specific 61 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 1: that is happening in the sports universe that I think 62 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 1: we should talk about. I think the NFL has a 63 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:32,919 Speaker 1: real issue on its hand, and we've said this all year. 64 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: These games, much of the year have been unwatchable because 65 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 1: the officiating has been so inconsistent, between the holding calls, 66 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 1: the quarterback, the roughing, the pastor calls, the d p 67 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: I calls, the personal fouls. For years, it didn't matter 68 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 1: from a gambling perspective. The NFL didn't have to care 69 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 1: about it because they did not embrace gambling. They actually 70 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 1: vehetnmainly opposed it. So if gambler were complaining about the 71 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 1: inconsistency of the calls and the impact was having on 72 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 1: the games, the NFL could basically say, fuck you. Now. 73 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 1: The NFL is in bed with gambling. There is no 74 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 1: there is no missing nous, there is no hiding behind 75 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 1: the curtain. The NFL embraces gambling. They need more transparency 76 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 1: and officiating. They need better officiating, They need more consistent officiating. 77 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 1: The players know it. Robert Quinn the other night, talking 78 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 1: about the Bears in that game against the Vikings, the 79 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 1: inconsistency with some of the calls. We saw it again 80 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 1: in the Seahawks Rams game that had a very real 81 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 1: impact on the point spread for betters. I think this 82 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:43,039 Speaker 1: is a very serious issue for the NFL. It is 83 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:45,719 Speaker 1: going to become more of an issue as more states 84 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: legalized betting. They've got to figure something out when it 85 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 1: comes to officiating and how it's impacting these games from 86 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 1: a betting point of view. A lot of people complained. 87 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 1: They said it was taking too long. The'm reviewing the 88 00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 1: plays and that's why they want to get rid of 89 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:01,240 Speaker 1: the past interference thing. To BSX, use if a game 90 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:03,479 Speaker 1: takes five minutes longer, don't you just wanted to be 91 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:05,839 Speaker 1: a fair playing field where if If that's what it 92 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:07,839 Speaker 1: takes to get these things right, that's what it takes 93 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of things. Now they just 94 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: get called right down from New York, Like they don't 95 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:13,040 Speaker 1: even stop TV, they touch their ear, they get a 96 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:16,160 Speaker 1: phone call in. They said they only overturn the p 97 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 1: I calls. That's more than we have right now. That's 98 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:22,039 Speaker 1: the difference. It's like, would you really have zero? Would 99 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: you have Like I was happy with whatever they were 100 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 1: giving us. The fact that they would even review it. 101 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 1: To me, was was a good deal they got got 102 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:30,799 Speaker 1: rid of after one year because they didn't like getting 103 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: fans didn't like it. But I do see a shift coming. 104 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,120 Speaker 1: Sports pult're going into these stadiums at this point, teams 105 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:38,920 Speaker 1: are getting sponsored by different gambling groups. So like, because 106 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:42,360 Speaker 1: again the league's biggest issue is old owners and these 107 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 1: people are stubborn. They're getting their money. What do they 108 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 1: care that. That's the hardest part about this is like 109 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 1: if we're trying to update things and change things, they 110 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:51,479 Speaker 1: just don't care. If their bottom line they're still making money, 111 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 1: why do they care. But yeah, as as like you 112 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 1: just said, as a gambler, that Seahawks game was atrocious. 113 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 1: It was one of those where I instantly regretta have 114 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 1: to be money on it on these a night. So 115 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 1: it's hard as a gambler. But at the same time, 116 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 1: like you just said, it's it's what we have to 117 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 1: deal with, So I just have to keep dealing with it. 118 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 1: The NFL is going to have to sort of come 119 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 1: to Jesus on this because it's a real issue for fans, 120 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:17,279 Speaker 1: it's a real issue for gamblers. It's going to continue 121 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 1: to be an issue. But yeah, everyone has to talk 122 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: to the media after a football game except the refs, 123 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 1: and I'm all get that. I get they try to 124 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 1: protect them, keep them safe. I mean, they have to 125 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:30,160 Speaker 1: be accountable. Their biggest concern has always been integrity with 126 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 1: the product. But they're worried about games being fixed. That's 127 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:36,480 Speaker 1: not the issue. The integrity and the product comes down 128 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 1: to the fact when the people in the stripes are 129 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 1: impacting the game in ways that have real monetary impact 130 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 1: on the fans. And if you're gonna be in the 131 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 1: betting business, you gotta have integrity across the board. It 132 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,640 Speaker 1: can't just be about not having games fixed. It's got 133 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:55,039 Speaker 1: to be about consistency with the officiating because the officials 134 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: can control the game. You can't get into the red zone. 135 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 1: You can't get a third down without thinking, as a fan, 136 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 1: on this stop, you're gonna get fucked. You just can't 137 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 1: felt that way all year, Simon. Before we get to 138 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 1: the slate, before we nail it down, let's get to 139 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 1: some sharp cuss Hello, who's there, I'm talking somebody kind 140 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 1: of expected to speak with the pro calls. It did 141 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 1: take some flak for saying that I rage bet On Saturday. 142 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: That wasn't very pro like of me. I knew what 143 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 1: I was doing. I wasn't gonna control in the sense 144 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 1: that I believed in my numbers and I was all 145 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 1: in on the Colts um in that matchup. I never 146 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 1: rolled money over And that was just very joe public 147 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 1: of me to take all my winnings from a college game. 148 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 1: Just take all of it right away and put it 149 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 1: onto the next game. So that that's fair that criticism. 150 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 1: I'll take that heat. Had a lot of guys talking 151 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 1: to me about that. I wonder what Mike Tomlin is 152 00:07:56,480 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 1: going to say about that, little dude. I wondered if 153 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 1: that was going to be the case. You're not an 154 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 1: emotional guy like that. Never, but like I was just 155 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 1: so pissed from just because we nailed that Chargers game 156 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 1: and then we we got nothing from it. That's that's 157 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 1: just the worst feeling. This week was pretty simple. A 158 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 1: lot of the calls I got pros roll over Tennessee. 159 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 1: We've seen it now. We told you to take that 160 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 1: three and a half. It's down to three now, that's 161 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:26,679 Speaker 1: not shocking. That's just a key number. If this number 162 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,760 Speaker 1: shifted to two, I might start thinking forty Niners. But 163 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 1: the fact that it's still at three, I just keep 164 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:35,199 Speaker 1: I'll keep leaning towards this Tennessee team. Um, it sucks 165 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 1: you didn't get the three and a half, but you 166 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 1: never now before kickoff it could get back to that. 167 00:08:39,160 --> 00:08:40,800 Speaker 1: And we saw it last week with the Chargers. They 168 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 1: dip down to three. It kept going back and forth. 169 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:46,559 Speaker 1: Um that that that with all the games I expected 170 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 1: the call from and staying with Arizona Cardinals, I knew 171 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 1: that every pro would be aligned on this one. This 172 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 1: is just a pro pro game. The pros will come 173 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 1: in on on Arizona. I know a couple of pros 174 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: they got maybe you know, you're gonna look a headline. 175 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 1: The most you can get down as a thousand, like 176 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 1: any book, the most they're gonna take as a thousand. Um, 177 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 1: a lot of guys got the plus four on the 178 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:10,679 Speaker 1: Colts last week. Now they're coming back on the other 179 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:13,439 Speaker 1: side taking the one with the Arizona. That's a nice 180 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:16,559 Speaker 1: little middle spot. But the more I talked to the guys, 181 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 1: the more it just seems like this is just a 182 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:20,440 Speaker 1: trap spot for this Colts team. So, I mean, people 183 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:22,560 Speaker 1: could see my lack of confidence in the Arizona pick. 184 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:24,959 Speaker 1: Hearing so many other pros are on Arizona makes me 185 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:27,840 Speaker 1: feel a little better. Arizonas down to minus one, by 186 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 1: the way, I mean, I've seen it down to half 187 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:32,200 Speaker 1: a point at certain books. We talked about the I 188 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: it was a four or FROs three, that those are 189 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 1: key numbers. We would have probably taken the Colts. There 190 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:38,280 Speaker 1: the fact that it's down to this point that what 191 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 1: we think is a favorable line towards Arizona team, it's 192 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 1: shifted too much. It's shocking the pros. Like Cincinnati Bengals. 193 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 1: I'm not letting them burn me again. They talked me 194 00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 1: off the Ravens against the Browns and they shifted my 195 00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 1: position to that Browns team, and I felt like shit 196 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 1: about it the whole time. And of course we didn't 197 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 1: cover that number. They're they're they're the same reasons. Let's again. 198 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:02,559 Speaker 1: They just keep saying the Ravens can't keep it up. 199 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 1: It's they're gonna come back to the meeting. They just 200 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 1: can't covering these close games and coming back like it's 201 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: back to back weeks. If at two straight weeks they 202 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:13,560 Speaker 1: have come back from what was it to three, the 203 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 1: Browns are winning and then we had a thirty one 204 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 1: seventeen lead by the Green Bay and they covered. So 205 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 1: we're probably sucking up by finally getting off fading this 206 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:26,200 Speaker 1: Ravens team. But it's up to three now, so I'm 207 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna end up taking that number. I'll go 208 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:31,079 Speaker 1: against the professionals in that sense. And the last one 209 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 1: was when we talked about we love the Dolphins. We 210 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 1: knew the pros are gonna love that one. That number. 211 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:36,599 Speaker 1: I do think it's gonna get back to three and 212 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: a half by kick off. I could just see the 213 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 1: public coming in New Orleans. We have Sean Payton back. 214 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: People will be feeling good again. They're coming off their 215 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 1: biggest win here late in the season, shutting out Tom Brady. 216 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 1: Nothing's changed. Every every probably talked to Isa, same thing. 217 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 1: We feel like Miami played like ship against the Jets. 218 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:56,160 Speaker 1: The old Miami loses that game against the Jets last week, 219 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:57,960 Speaker 1: all right, they throw that pick six to it. There's 220 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 1: a pick six. The Jets usually win that game. They 221 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 1: won it, and that's again, that's another reason I'm getting 222 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 1: more confident in this um Miami team. I'm hoping it 223 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 1: gets back to three and a half. I do hope 224 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:09,920 Speaker 1: the public bets a bat because that's such a key 225 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:11,400 Speaker 1: number to me to get that three a half. So 226 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:13,560 Speaker 1: I still love it at three with the Dolphins, but 227 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 1: we're hoping it gets back to three and a half. 228 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 1: I did better at three. The bets I've made so 229 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 1: far Buffalo plus two and a half, Carolina plus ten 230 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 1: and a half, Miami plus three. So gross, so gross, 231 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 1: All of it is gross. Let's go through all of 232 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 1: the games that you mentioned a couple of them. Let's 233 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,960 Speaker 1: go through all the games that we were sort of 234 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:36,600 Speaker 1: narrowing down for our five and see if we can 235 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 1: sort of come to consensus, and then we will probably 236 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:41,840 Speaker 1: keep a little some of them in our back pocket 237 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 1: for Sunday morning. We will talk about them on our show. 238 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,199 Speaker 1: We talked about them after our show Convinced Me on 239 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:52,439 Speaker 1: at Action Network h Q at eleven am Eastern. Reminder, 240 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 1: because people have questions about this in our feedback segment, 241 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 1: feedback is a gift. Convinced Me is not a podcast. 242 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:02,680 Speaker 1: Convinced Me is a show that uh Simon Hunter, Sean Croner, 243 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 1: Chris Raybond, a cavalcade of superstar experts do on Sunday 244 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 1: mornings eleven A and Eastern on Action Network HQ. Those 245 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,559 Speaker 1: three try to convince me the prop deside the total 246 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 1: I should take. Check it out on Twitter or the 247 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. Let's talk about the Bills. In 248 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:22,679 Speaker 1: the past. You talked about the Titans a little bit. 249 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 1: That's not going to be one of our best five. 250 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:27,320 Speaker 1: People wanted me to make that our big balls bet, 251 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 1: but we already did a big balls bet last Thursday. 252 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,720 Speaker 1: We'll save our big balls bet for this weekend. Part 253 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 1: of me feels like, if you're not going to get 254 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: the Titans at three and a half, I might just 255 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 1: take him on the money line. I would still take 256 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:40,560 Speaker 1: the three again. I told you I I think one 257 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 1: of the most underrated key numbers is to um this 258 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 1: seasons next. We've just seen a shift with these extra 259 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 1: points differently like that weird funky numbers. I mean, hell, 260 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:52,600 Speaker 1: what was that Our boys Stucky got a shot from 261 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 1: s v P last night about that Army beat Hidden 262 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:59,560 Speaker 1: Army minus three. Army wins by two. So it's um. 263 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 1: It's been come a very key number, especially in these 264 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 1: these big games. Thank you so much. Exciting finishing for worth. 265 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,200 Speaker 1: Coach Monk and guys get their first win against the 266 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:10,560 Speaker 1: power of five opponent in four years. A couple of 267 00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:14,720 Speaker 1: late scores, they're dramatic. Sorry stucky, Welcome to Sports Center 268 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 1: from d C. I've Scott fan pill. So let's talk 269 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 1: about the Bills. Let's two and a half of the Pats. 270 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 1: Still I bet it two and a half. Still like it? 271 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 1: It's ugly. I think it's the right side. Yeah, it 272 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:28,440 Speaker 1: is interesting. I did see a touch three at a 273 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 1: couple of books that are very respected, which means that 274 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 1: some pro money did come in on this new England team. 275 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 1: On paper, I get what people are seeing with mac. 276 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:39,079 Speaker 1: He is very efficient and what he does, the way 277 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 1: they run that offense through him is very efficient. They 278 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:43,559 Speaker 1: know what their strengths, so they know what their weaknesses are. 279 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 1: Teams have figured out what he does well. One of 280 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 1: his biggest strengths are in the middle of the field. 281 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 1: He's very good at reading where players are, the way 282 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 1: that they're moving, and he can fit balls into pretty 283 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:55,840 Speaker 1: tough holes or he's really get a lodged over the defense. 284 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 1: They don't want to be a passing team though, knowing 285 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 1: them and we've seen that that's that's not something they 286 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:03,440 Speaker 1: want to be. And with this Buffalo Bills team, the 287 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 1: second time around, they're gonna be able to take advantage 288 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:08,840 Speaker 1: of making max weaknesses really stand out. I remember, what 289 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 1: was it a week ago, two weeks ago, this line 290 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:12,839 Speaker 1: might have been minus one or minus three and a 291 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:15,640 Speaker 1: half for the Bills before they played each other. They 292 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:17,839 Speaker 1: dropped that win. I mean, the Bill should have won 293 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 1: seventeen whenever it would have been, the Bill should have 294 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:22,920 Speaker 1: won that game. Again, I thought New England was the 295 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 1: right side. They're probably gonna cover that one. But I 296 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 1: do think the Bills they had all the opportunities to 297 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: win that game. This if they did win that game, 298 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 1: what would this line bed Probably minus one, minus two 299 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,840 Speaker 1: for the Bills because they won the division last year. 300 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 1: So when I put this in the fact that my 301 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 1: line made this a pick and it kind of made 302 00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 1: it more slant towards the Bills, it's not surprising at 303 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 1: all putting this out there just because they know what 304 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:45,800 Speaker 1: the pub was gonna do this line. So I like 305 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 1: the different advantages that I already had towards the Bills, 306 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 1: But the biggest one is just gonna be it's time. 307 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 1: Like this Bills team, they're a playoff team. They have 308 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 1: all the hype. This is it, Like the Bills, Are 309 00:14:57,600 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: you really gonna turn back into what you guys had 310 00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 1: been for twenty years before Tom Brady dominated these teams? 311 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 1: Like this just feels like such a big moment for 312 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 1: this Bills team, where the Patriots have always been the 313 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 1: hurdle for them, this is their opportunity to overcoming We're 314 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 1: getting plus number. I mean again, if you can get 315 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 1: plus three, I don't know how you don't take the 316 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: Bills with this, So we could be walking to a trap. 317 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 1: I've had a couple, Like I told you, I talked 318 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 1: to a couple of pros. They're on the Patriots. But 319 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 1: to me, I have to trust that the more veteran team, 320 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 1: the more experience with Josh Allen, it's gonna be a 321 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 1: factor in a late December game. So I was wavering 322 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 1: and making this one of our five. But the more 323 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: like I've looked at it, it feels like we kind 324 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:34,480 Speaker 1: of have to. Like I've it feels like the most 325 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 1: balanced number this week. But like again, we're not getting 326 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:40,120 Speaker 1: crazy value, only getting two points of value, but the 327 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 1: fact that it's a two and a half three, that's 328 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 1: again a key number. So it makes me want to 329 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 1: take that Bills team. I have no issues with this pick. 330 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 1: I love it. I love the Bills in this spot. 331 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 1: I feel like this is not the kind of coaching 332 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:56,080 Speaker 1: mismatch that you would normally see with a Belishick team. 333 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 1: This second time they're playing a team they just beat. 334 00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:01,920 Speaker 1: Sean Derman has proven to be a really good coach, 335 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 1: His staff has proven to be really thoughtful. It's a 336 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 1: fascinating matchup. There's a lot of things I'm gonna try 337 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 1: to tweak and update with my my system this up 338 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 1: coming off season, but the biggest will definitely be at 339 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: the variance of how many coaches go for Don forth down. 340 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 1: It's just something we can't really account for right now 341 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: because it's just so it's just it's crazy. I mean, 342 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 1: it's the worrying part about taking these high risk teams. 343 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:24,320 Speaker 1: It feels to me like this should probably be our 344 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: big balls better the week. Really, I'm with you on it. 345 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 1: I mean, it does. It takes balls. I mean, I'm 346 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 1: honestly yeah. Because again we're taking the Bills on the 347 00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 1: road against Belichick. This is where Belichick drives exactly. And 348 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:43,000 Speaker 1: we've seen some of your buddies, some of the pros 349 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 1: taking the Patriots. Now it's split. It's literally That's why 350 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 1: I don't know for everything to get back to the three, 351 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: because I think the pros will just keep buying it down. 352 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 1: Well I hope we don't, because then I'll just feel 353 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: bad that I got two and a half. Again, my friend, 354 00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 1: let's it's true. That's what I did with the Colts, 355 00:16:58,000 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 1: and I didn't do it in a rageway. I did 356 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 1: it in an emotional, thoughtful way. Let's talk about the 357 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,119 Speaker 1: Colts and the Cardinals. I love the Cardinals at one 358 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 1: and a half. Why don't I love them at one? Yeah? 359 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 1: Nothing changed. Um. The funniest thing is hearing people complain 360 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 1: about it, saying again, I'm with Matt Mitchell. We we 361 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:24,520 Speaker 1: love to talk shit about Kingsbury. Cliff Kingsbury. I do 362 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 1: think he's one of more overrated coaches in football. I 363 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 1: just have to go off not just instincts, but all 364 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:31,920 Speaker 1: the other pros that have come before me that I've 365 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:35,399 Speaker 1: seen this exact game, this position, every time, we know 366 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 1: what happens here. The Colts have a letdown game, the 367 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:40,359 Speaker 1: Cardinals have a huge bounce back game. It's just I 368 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:42,480 Speaker 1: feel like with football, you kind of see these rhythms 369 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:45,439 Speaker 1: and if the Cardinals don't. If I'm a person as 370 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 1: a future on the Cardinals, you can let it on fire. 371 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 1: It's done because this is a not I must win, 372 00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: but as close as you can get to it. Like 373 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:56,400 Speaker 1: they're they're losing hand on their their division, which they 374 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,120 Speaker 1: had just been leading all season. They've been winning big 375 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 1: games with backup we're back in Cole McCoy, and now 376 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:06,440 Speaker 1: they're dropping to the last three there. Everyone's everyone's panicking. Honestly. 377 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:10,199 Speaker 1: People are saying that Kyler's hurt. I don't know about that. 378 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:11,400 Speaker 1: I think it's the same thing that we the team 379 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: with Dak. These guys come back from injury and the 380 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 1: rhythms just off. You lose that little bit of rhythm, 381 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 1: a little bit of like you're in such a good 382 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,399 Speaker 1: rhythm with your receivers and everything else on the team 383 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 1: that you're just playing not really thinking college just looks 384 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:27,760 Speaker 1: like he's overthinking. Takeaway Hopkins as well. That's that's honestly, 385 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 1: why I've seen this number kind of come down more so, 386 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 1: um not just the fact that Cardinals haven't played well. 387 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 1: So to me, if if you're if you're thinking all 388 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:39,480 Speaker 1: these reasons why you should be taking colds. That should 389 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 1: be the sirens going off about why you want to 390 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:43,920 Speaker 1: take the Cardinals, because the bookmakers know what they're doing 391 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 1: here there. They're giving you a great number. Again, you 392 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,119 Speaker 1: can get the culture and out plus one ten, plus 393 00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 1: one twenty the money line. Everyone's doing it. That's one 394 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 1: of the biggest money line bets this week. So to me, 395 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,399 Speaker 1: this is a classic pros versus shows. Everyone's gonna have 396 00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:01,080 Speaker 1: the Colts teased up everyone. So I hate it because, 397 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 1: like we said, we like to fade Arizona come November December. 398 00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 1: But in this position, this is a pro number. No 399 00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 1: matter what, this is gonna be one of our five. 400 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 1: We are heading into the holiday season with courage and conviction. 401 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,920 Speaker 1: Definitely a lot of courage this week. Like the games 402 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 1: we're talking about are just they're gross. When you like 403 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:23,680 Speaker 1: you bet them, you're just it's not it's uncomfortable because 404 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 1: you're gonna go against your gut instinct of what you've watched, 405 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:30,080 Speaker 1: but you have to trust the numbers. 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In 443 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:50,879 Speaker 1: West Virginia, Falcons and the Lions, the line was at 444 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:54,120 Speaker 1: seven before this past week. The look aheadline went down 445 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 1: to four, now back up to six. Six is as 446 00:21:57,840 --> 00:21:59,400 Speaker 1: much of a key number as seven. So if you're 447 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,080 Speaker 1: getting it at like, you're not like, you're not losing 448 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 1: that much if you don't get it at four, because 449 00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:07,639 Speaker 1: five is a dead number. So the Falcons beat bad teams. 450 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 1: The Lions have no secondary. We don't know what's going 451 00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:11,920 Speaker 1: on with Jared Golf. They're coming off a huge win, 452 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 1: the Falcons coming off a huge loss, the Falcons at home. 453 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 1: This feels like the right spot to invest in the Falcons, 454 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,919 Speaker 1: even at six and again we talked about that's why 455 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:24,639 Speaker 1: we liked so much of five and a half because 456 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,200 Speaker 1: six is a key number. You're not losing much taking 457 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:29,119 Speaker 1: the six. Again, worst case do you end up with 458 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,680 Speaker 1: a push, which I know people hate pushes. I always 459 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 1: kind of pushes a win, So I don't love that 460 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 1: I'm not getting updates on golf Again, I'd feel more 461 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,160 Speaker 1: comfortable with him out just because we've seen it where 462 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,399 Speaker 1: not that he's got confidence, but he does. Like on 463 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:46,440 Speaker 1: these third downs when early in the year it was 464 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,200 Speaker 1: third and ten, it's over the guys either throwing a 465 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:52,520 Speaker 1: pick six or they're punching. We've seen the last couple 466 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:54,640 Speaker 1: of weeks he's really got more comfortable of that team 467 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 1: he's got definitely more confidence in himself. So um props 468 00:22:58,359 --> 00:22:59,879 Speaker 1: of golf coming in this year. I thought he was 469 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 1: is gonna be a one and done. He's not good, 470 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,480 Speaker 1: he can't be coached up. But he's really taking the 471 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:07,920 Speaker 1: identity of Campbell. He's really toughened up this shoot. So 472 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:09,840 Speaker 1: it'll be interesting what they do with the top pick. 473 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 1: I mean, if I'm a fan of that team, I'm 474 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 1: hoping they take a quarterback. But camp Campbell's a crazy dude. 475 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:16,639 Speaker 1: I could see him believing in golf and giving him 476 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,680 Speaker 1: another year. They're not taking a quarterback. They're taking their 477 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 1: taking Aidan Hutchinson at number one, number two. There's not 478 00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:29,240 Speaker 1: gonna be a quarterback taken until the middle of the 479 00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,200 Speaker 1: first round. This is not a take a type quarterback 480 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 1: in the top ten draft. Guarantee. We can save this 481 00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:39,000 Speaker 1: guarantee a quarterback with taking on the top ten. If 482 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:40,840 Speaker 1: a quarterback doesn't going to top ten, I give my 483 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,480 Speaker 1: word to this show, I will retire. I would disappear 484 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,560 Speaker 1: from all of your lives. Let's not be dramatic. I'm 485 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 1: just saying that was an awful take by you. I mean, 486 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,480 Speaker 1: I it's not a quarterback then go top ten e 487 00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,959 Speaker 1: J manual. Yeah, and this could be that draft. I'm 488 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,440 Speaker 1: telling you right now, you're gonna spend top ten capital 489 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:03,760 Speaker 1: on any picket, and like there's some good arms this year. Look, 490 00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 1: we can agree to disagree and come May we'll know 491 00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:09,239 Speaker 1: we're gonna have fun with the draft. I can tell 492 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 1: we're gonna have fun with it. One of us is wrong. 493 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:13,960 Speaker 1: You know who's wrong. But I watched No College so 494 00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 1: like I don't know ship again, I watched it at 495 00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:18,840 Speaker 1: the quar of Eye on Saturday. So off top mat, 496 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:20,560 Speaker 1: I can think of like three different quarterbacks that are 497 00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,280 Speaker 1: like good prospects, are tall, and they got a strong arm. 498 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,440 Speaker 1: I mean, that's what these gms look for, Chad. So 499 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 1: the Falcons were lining them up as a potential top five. 500 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,479 Speaker 1: It's about what the number weekend. How much pain we're 501 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,560 Speaker 1: willing to intake because we know we're it's gonna come Sunday, 502 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 1: they're gonna be down ten points. I mean, you're gonna 503 00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,520 Speaker 1: textis are in God damn every time we do this 504 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,640 Speaker 1: with the Falcons. But we have to. It's it's too 505 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,439 Speaker 1: easy not to fade this Detroit team after a win 506 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,640 Speaker 1: like they just had and the fact that this Falcons team, 507 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:49,240 Speaker 1: just like you said, they beat up on bad teams. 508 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,920 Speaker 1: They've done it all year. We are one put in 509 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:54,960 Speaker 1: the Panthers plus ten and a half against the Bucks. 510 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 1: It's a foxhole bet. Everything is saying, take this good 511 00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 1: secondary against a quarterback who has struggled on the road, 512 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,879 Speaker 1: who is missing one of his most sure handed receivers. 513 00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:10,920 Speaker 1: There are questions about Mike Evans availability, Leonard Fournett will 514 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:15,680 Speaker 1: not be playing. Come on, are we professionals or not? Yeah? No, no, 515 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,760 Speaker 1: we have to do it. Let's go gam Newton one 516 00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:21,000 Speaker 1: and eleven his last twelve starts against the spread for 517 00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,120 Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers. I mean, I get you might get 518 00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:26,120 Speaker 1: Sam Donald. It's all bad people like you're gonna try 519 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,639 Speaker 1: to look up reasons to take Carolina. Chad basically late 520 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:30,359 Speaker 1: it out for you. If you go on the numbers, 521 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:31,840 Speaker 1: you're going on to the paper, you're looking for trends. 522 00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 1: It's all gonna point towards this Bucks team. But for us, 523 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:36,480 Speaker 1: when we're looking at the numbers, we look at the data, 524 00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,440 Speaker 1: we knew this number is inflated. We know it's gonna 525 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,200 Speaker 1: keep getting inflated because the public is gonna come in 526 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,720 Speaker 1: so even it's your team. So of all the games 527 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:44,920 Speaker 1: you're betting this week, I'm I'm with you. This is 528 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,119 Speaker 1: probably my least favorite bet and it's probably the second 529 00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 1: most money I have on a game, and I hate it. 530 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 1: I hate that to keep bending it, but I keep doing. 531 00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 1: They moved it all up to twelve one point. What 532 00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 1: am I supposed to do? I have to keep betting 533 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:55,840 Speaker 1: that if they moved it up there. I've seen you 534 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:57,320 Speaker 1: drop all the way down down to ten ten and 535 00:25:57,320 --> 00:25:59,560 Speaker 1: a half a certain book. So we have to do it. 536 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,240 Speaker 1: You have to take this North Carolina. And so it's 537 00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:03,760 Speaker 1: like what you had just said, We're not ben On 538 00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,879 Speaker 1: camneywore been on this defense. Listen. I didn't get it 539 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:08,160 Speaker 1: a twelve. I got it a ten and a half 540 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 1: because I'm not, you know, up twenty four hours a 541 00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,160 Speaker 1: day seven so you're not up at three am looking 542 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,120 Speaker 1: for the best line. And we know the books will 543 00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 1: move it the half point that everybody wants when everybody 544 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,240 Speaker 1: except for Simon his Runner and a hundred other professional 545 00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 1: betters are awake pretty much. But again, tends a key number. 546 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,440 Speaker 1: Though you can get it a ten or above ten, 547 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,399 Speaker 1: you take it. We saw that Washington football game against 548 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:34,800 Speaker 1: the Eagles, number six and a half. What was it 549 00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 1: one o'clock in the afternoon. By kickoff, it went all 550 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,000 Speaker 1: up to ten. Game lands ten. I mean the bookmakers, 551 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,640 Speaker 1: they know what they're doing. They know exactly what they're 552 00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,280 Speaker 1: doing a couple of their games to scratch off here. 553 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:49,280 Speaker 1: You loved the Rams on Tuesday. They were your Simon 554 00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:51,440 Speaker 1: says better the week because of the number it was 555 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:53,639 Speaker 1: that two and a half. I kind of messed up 556 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:54,879 Speaker 1: on that one and went up to three. It came 557 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 1: right back down to two and a half. So I'm 558 00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,119 Speaker 1: with the public. I said that before when I picked this, 559 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,080 Speaker 1: I'm gonna be with a BLI I knew the professionals 560 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,720 Speaker 1: gonna be on the Vikings. It was the Vikings at home. 561 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 1: As a dog usually will always be all over that spot. 562 00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:09,879 Speaker 1: I just like the way that the Rams match up 563 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,600 Speaker 1: for this with this team. Um, the Vikings giveing some 564 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:15,560 Speaker 1: of those explosive plays in the secondary. That's all the 565 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,120 Speaker 1: Rams do. That's the Rams offense. It's Cooper Cup down 566 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,440 Speaker 1: the field for twenty yards and maybe every now and 567 00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,120 Speaker 1: then Dan Jefferson or O'Dell and break a big one. 568 00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:25,879 Speaker 1: That's just we've seen what they are now, the Rams, 569 00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:29,200 Speaker 1: that's the style they're running. Um. To me, it matches 570 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 1: up all this Vikings team. So it's rare again that 571 00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,359 Speaker 1: I'm on public side, But when you do get different 572 00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:36,479 Speaker 1: little matchups like that and you're not, like, again, if 573 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 1: this was four and a half, yeah, I would start 574 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:42,639 Speaker 1: looking at the Vikings. But to me, I made this 575 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:45,359 Speaker 1: number three and a half. I still think you're gonna 576 00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:48,520 Speaker 1: point the value on this RAMS team. I don't want 577 00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 1: to put it in the contest. I get it. It's 578 00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:54,159 Speaker 1: a little too due public for you little public. You 579 00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:56,399 Speaker 1: just mentioned the Bengal the Bengals Ravens. That was a 580 00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:59,560 Speaker 1: sharp call. Wise, guys are loving the Bengals and you're 581 00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:03,119 Speaker 1: kind of the Ravens here. Yeah, those guys. We'll keep 582 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,200 Speaker 1: chasing that dream. Again, this is not gonna be in 583 00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:07,679 Speaker 1: our contest because the Ravens has just been burning us 584 00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 1: never I mean, so, I'm just gonna take the value. 585 00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:14,600 Speaker 1: They play close games. This is a divisional matchup. Late 586 00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,960 Speaker 1: in the year. I told people in early December, I 587 00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,879 Speaker 1: take the dog, I take the under, not even some 588 00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 1: of these divisional games. That's just what I'm gonna do. 589 00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,159 Speaker 1: It's been working I mean that we've already seen it 590 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 1: this since the calendar's turn, it's been a lot of 591 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:29,600 Speaker 1: under his divisionally, it's been a lot of dogs divisionally. 592 00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 1: So I'm waiting, especially if I'm gonna put more on it. 593 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 1: I kind of do wanted to be Lamar again. I 594 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 1: love what this backup has done. I watched the film. 595 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,880 Speaker 1: He literally was staring down. If it wasn't Andrews, it 596 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:43,840 Speaker 1: was Hollywood Brown, and that was it. He would do 597 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,680 Speaker 1: two reads and then then you take off. So I 598 00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:49,360 Speaker 1: love it. I love his athleticism, but I would just 599 00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 1: feel better with Lamar coming back. So I'm taking the 600 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,200 Speaker 1: three down and hoping that Lamar comes back to really 601 00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:56,160 Speaker 1: give you the bat because this line, if he does 602 00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 1: come back, what do you think it drops down to one? 603 00:28:58,280 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 1: That's what I assume you would dropped too. So I 604 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,160 Speaker 1: do think you're getting good value on it. Two games 605 00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 1: that we gotta talk about. You loved on Tuesday. You 606 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,680 Speaker 1: fucking loved the chiefs Mine is nine and a half. 607 00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: I'm surprised that you have not gotten calls from the 608 00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:13,920 Speaker 1: wise guy community and that they were not part of 609 00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:17,960 Speaker 1: your sharp calls because the money has come all the 610 00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 1: way in on the Steelers. It's now down to seven 611 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,520 Speaker 1: and a half. It's COVID ship. I mean, if there's 612 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:27,120 Speaker 1: no Tyreek Hill, if there's no Travis Kelsey, Yeah, I'm 613 00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,760 Speaker 1: with you, I get it. Why would like Pittsburgh. That's 614 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,640 Speaker 1: probably the right side. So like, that's why COVID sucks. 615 00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 1: We literally did the show and then a minute after 616 00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:38,560 Speaker 1: we finished that breaking that's right, we slacked right after that. Yeah, 617 00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,600 Speaker 1: so again I I love the Chiefs. This was I 618 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:43,800 Speaker 1: told people too, I love the under. This was like 619 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 1: a smash spot. Now the under has come way down 620 00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,280 Speaker 1: again because the Hill might be out, Kelsey might be out. 621 00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:51,760 Speaker 1: What are the Chiefs without them there? There are going 622 00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:54,400 Speaker 1: to be the two of the best what ten weapons 623 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:58,240 Speaker 1: in all football offensively? So it's it sucks. That's we're 624 00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:01,000 Speaker 1: trying to deal here with COVID. So the instincts in 625 00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:03,800 Speaker 1: me say, the bookmakers know what then they're doing the 626 00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:05,680 Speaker 1: fact that in Drop It Blow six and a half, 627 00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:07,320 Speaker 1: that should be all you need to know if you're 628 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 1: if you're about in Pittsburgh. What a gift they're giving 629 00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:11,280 Speaker 1: you seven and a half and there's no Hill. No 630 00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:14,280 Speaker 1: Kelsey stinks. That's when this line stunk from the get go. 631 00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:16,360 Speaker 1: Still like the Chiefs, you're just getting a better number 632 00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:20,880 Speaker 1: at this point. Well, unfortunately I had in Scoot Roulette 633 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:22,920 Speaker 1: the Chiefs Mine is nine and a half and you 634 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:26,760 Speaker 1: had Miami plus three. Do I get some kind of 635 00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:30,120 Speaker 1: relief in scooch Roulette with now that we know, I'll 636 00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:31,840 Speaker 1: still take the Chiefs, But can I get him at 637 00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:33,720 Speaker 1: seven and a half instead of at nine and a half. 638 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,280 Speaker 1: I'll allow it just because I'm smacking you around this year, child, 639 00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:41,000 Speaker 1: I thought you're gonna say you'll allow it because we're 640 00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:44,640 Speaker 1: like brothers. In the end. You only see you only 641 00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,200 Speaker 1: want what's best for me. That is true, all right. 642 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:49,640 Speaker 1: I think we keep an eye on the Chiefs for 643 00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:51,960 Speaker 1: the top five right now. I think they're on the 644 00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:53,800 Speaker 1: outside looking in. You see what I'm saying that you 645 00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:55,480 Speaker 1: love that number? Now when you really think about it, 646 00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,360 Speaker 1: why wouldn't you take that seven and a half for 647 00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:02,840 Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Like Yeah, it just it feels like a 648 00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:06,520 Speaker 1: trap to me, That's why. And I feel like the 649 00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:08,840 Speaker 1: Steelers team is really interesting. I don't think they're playing 650 00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,760 Speaker 1: the type right for years, it's been rob Ron Mike Tomlin. 651 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:16,720 Speaker 1: Football is our game. Business is winning. I think this 652 00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:18,760 Speaker 1: year has been a little different. I think there have 653 00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:20,680 Speaker 1: been spots where you think it's going to be a 654 00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:23,280 Speaker 1: robber on Mike Tomlin and they get blown out like 655 00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:25,800 Speaker 1: the Bengals, and then you think it's gonna be spots 656 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:27,720 Speaker 1: where it should be rob Rod Mike Tomlin, like last 657 00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:31,360 Speaker 1: week in Tennessee, where we loved him at plus one 658 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:33,959 Speaker 1: and a half, we loved him at pick I bet 659 00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:35,640 Speaker 1: him on the money line. I bet him on the 660 00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:38,040 Speaker 1: money line live at plus two hundred when they were 661 00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,600 Speaker 1: down ten nothing, they got four turnovers and they won 662 00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 1: by six. I mean that is the definition of Roma. 663 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,680 Speaker 1: That's the standard. But like I think when in the 664 00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:53,400 Speaker 1: rob Rod Mike Tomlin spots Ben, it's just a shell 665 00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:57,280 Speaker 1: of himself. And and so offensively they're nothing Kansas City, 666 00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:00,520 Speaker 1: even without Tyree Hill and Travis Kelsey, they still have 667 00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:06,200 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, they still have incredible offensive weapons. To me, like, 668 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 1: I don't think the Steelers can can keep up right. 669 00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 1: And also we talked about we we love the Chiefs defense. 670 00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:14,680 Speaker 1: They played different at home. They've just shut down all 671 00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:17,680 Speaker 1: these again not even that great of offense, but offense 672 00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:19,880 Speaker 1: is just as good as Pittsburgh so that's why we 673 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:23,880 Speaker 1: we kind of lean towards the under. And yeah, because 674 00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:27,480 Speaker 1: I think the under is actually right here because the 675 00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:29,920 Speaker 1: Steelers can rely on the running game and Nagie Harris 676 00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:33,400 Speaker 1: to run right through the Chiefs. We've seen them do that, 677 00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:35,680 Speaker 1: but then they get really stingy, and I don't think 678 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,200 Speaker 1: the Steelers have the weapons in the red zone to 679 00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,800 Speaker 1: really score a lot of points. So that's where it's 680 00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 1: gonna get interesting. I'm loving this game. This is going 681 00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 1: to be an interesting game. I'm waiting for the number 682 00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,400 Speaker 1: to move down even more. Maybe it will alright, Miami 683 00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:53,040 Speaker 1: plus three at New Orleans. You liked it above one 684 00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:55,520 Speaker 1: and a half or two, it's still at three. This 685 00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:59,200 Speaker 1: to me absolutely is going to be in our top five. 686 00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:00,920 Speaker 1: Even though we don't like Monday night games, We're gonna 687 00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,360 Speaker 1: have to do it. Yeah, another game we talked about 688 00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:05,440 Speaker 1: a prime time under here, taking the dog, taking the 689 00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:09,280 Speaker 1: underknown shock just two great defenses. Look look look at 690 00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:11,480 Speaker 1: the data people on two of this year. He's been 691 00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:14,120 Speaker 1: really good. I know, he makes these dumb interceptions every 692 00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:16,240 Speaker 1: now and then. That's just I think that they're going 693 00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:18,880 Speaker 1: to live with too. He just he's young. He makes 694 00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,360 Speaker 1: the wrong reads that pick you through against the Jets 695 00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:23,640 Speaker 1: you saw coming on Mallaway. I mean that those those 696 00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:26,520 Speaker 1: plays where the guys running the curl back route and 697 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:28,840 Speaker 1: the defender never went up field. He's just standing right 698 00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:30,800 Speaker 1: there because he knew he was running curl route. That 699 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,680 Speaker 1: that was so bad against Jets. But it's rare good 700 00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:35,960 Speaker 1: opportunity to fade a team that just won a prime 701 00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:38,720 Speaker 1: time game. Um, what they went by nine was a 702 00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:42,240 Speaker 1: nine nothing. That's rare, like like literally just one nine 703 00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:44,720 Speaker 1: nothing on the road. Now they're coming home with another 704 00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:48,520 Speaker 1: primetime game. It's really where you got opportunity to fade 705 00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:50,480 Speaker 1: those teams in this kind of position, especially team that 706 00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:53,880 Speaker 1: this isn't good, Like the Saints are so weak the 707 00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:57,320 Speaker 1: week we've seen it all year. They beat the Bucks twice, 708 00:33:57,360 --> 00:33:59,720 Speaker 1: they beat Green Bay. I mean, they beat elite teams, 709 00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:02,960 Speaker 1: and they've just faltered against other, like really not talented teams. 710 00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:06,280 Speaker 1: Miami's defense has just been different. They've they've really turned 711 00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:08,480 Speaker 1: a corner. And people might say we're literal late to 712 00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,080 Speaker 1: the party, but to me, I still think we're getting 713 00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:12,040 Speaker 1: value on this line. I would have preferred to at 714 00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:14,400 Speaker 1: three and a half, which was when we opened um. 715 00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:16,600 Speaker 1: That's always a key number. But to take that number 716 00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:20,200 Speaker 1: with Miami umoral words of Denny Green. They are who 717 00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:24,160 Speaker 1: we thought they were. They are who we thought they were. Alright, 718 00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,759 Speaker 1: So big balls is gonna be the Pats plus two 719 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:31,560 Speaker 1: and a half our final five slash six right now, 720 00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:34,600 Speaker 1: Bills plus two and a half, Cars minus one, Falcons 721 00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:38,120 Speaker 1: minus six, Panthers plus ten and a half, Miami plus three. 722 00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:42,560 Speaker 1: We're we're investigating. The Chiefs and the Steelers will decide 723 00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:44,200 Speaker 1: on Sunday if that's one of the ways we want 724 00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:46,080 Speaker 1: to go. I think that rounds it out. It's going 725 00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:48,759 Speaker 1: to be a pretty quick conversation on Sunday morning. I 726 00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,320 Speaker 1: think between you and me, I definitely think there's like 727 00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:53,000 Speaker 1: ones to be really keyed in on. There's a couple 728 00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:54,880 Speaker 1: that are just on the edge where it's like they 729 00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:56,879 Speaker 1: could make their way in like we did last week 730 00:34:56,920 --> 00:35:00,600 Speaker 1: with Pittsburgh, but not it's unlikely. Should we talk about 731 00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:07,799 Speaker 1: our money line parlay dog your dog, Your dog dog? 732 00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:11,000 Speaker 1: I with third Tennessee and but a lot of people 733 00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:13,200 Speaker 1: might not listen to this before then. So if you 734 00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:15,799 Speaker 1: could throw their Tennessee in great, If not, we'll we'll 735 00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,120 Speaker 1: give you another five anyway, Cleveland, this number is way 736 00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:22,600 Speaker 1: too inflated. I would take the Cleveland money line. Green 737 00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:24,759 Speaker 1: Bay is notorious for a little stinker games like this, 738 00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:26,920 Speaker 1: especially at then of the year. They tried to give 739 00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:30,239 Speaker 1: it away last week to the Ravens. I this is 740 00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,400 Speaker 1: this is it for the Brown So to me, this 741 00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:33,960 Speaker 1: is as mos vide as you can get if you're 742 00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:37,680 Speaker 1: this Brown team in Lambeau. I give them no chance 743 00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:39,560 Speaker 1: of covering that number. They either gonna win this game 744 00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:41,480 Speaker 1: out right. They're getting blown the funk out because that 745 00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:43,200 Speaker 1: Cleveland team could have gave up for all we know 746 00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,080 Speaker 1: after that that loss last week. So to me, I like, 747 00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:48,120 Speaker 1: that's the right time where I like that money line. 748 00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:51,200 Speaker 1: But I'm not touching the spread Panthers. You just touched 749 00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:54,040 Speaker 1: on it. We like that Panthers number. It's too big. 750 00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:57,160 Speaker 1: Everything seems like it's kind of kind of go wrong 751 00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:58,920 Speaker 1: here a little bit for the Buccaneers, like they're kind 752 00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:00,359 Speaker 1: of running out a little bit of gay ask. They've 753 00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:02,160 Speaker 1: got too many injuries. It's gonna catch up to him. 754 00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:04,239 Speaker 1: I think I just saw they put two of their 755 00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:07,640 Speaker 1: linebackers on the COVID list as well. That's that's bad 756 00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,319 Speaker 1: for a team. That needs to really stop the run 757 00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,600 Speaker 1: against the running team like Carolina. That that's that's big 758 00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,279 Speaker 1: for this Carolina team. So I've thrown a little on 759 00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:17,440 Speaker 1: that money line. I don't think we were gonna take it, 760 00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,160 Speaker 1: so I'm not gonna give it out. But have a 761 00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:21,319 Speaker 1: look at Houston just for a little bit, because they 762 00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:24,359 Speaker 1: might have Eckler out with COVID. They might have both 763 00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,560 Speaker 1: had on defense with COVID. It could there could be 764 00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:30,040 Speaker 1: a couple of studs out for this team. The only 765 00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:32,120 Speaker 1: reason I'm not giving it out is Cooks is out. 766 00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:34,080 Speaker 1: Cooks right now is on the COVID list for this 767 00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:38,120 Speaker 1: Houston team. If you look at their offense, he's of 768 00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:40,759 Speaker 1: their receptions on third down has been Cooks. I mean, 769 00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:43,400 Speaker 1: that's insane to say, but that's how dominant he's been 770 00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,080 Speaker 1: for that Houston team. So I'll leave them out. Just 771 00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:52,240 Speaker 1: quick recap Panthers, Cleveland, Tennessee, and then well, I mean, obviously, 772 00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:54,879 Speaker 1: we we love Miami, that's that's the Monday night game. 773 00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:59,080 Speaker 1: Love the Ravens, and I probably would stop there. I mean, 774 00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:02,120 Speaker 1: I had I I want to give out Buffalo. If 775 00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,160 Speaker 1: people are getting under the two, I would just take 776 00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:05,759 Speaker 1: buffal on the money. I would have been about to too, 777 00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:08,840 Speaker 1: So for me, those would be my my five favorite. 778 00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:11,520 Speaker 1: The couple of pros I talked to, they liked really 779 00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:13,920 Speaker 1: giving out Washington's money line. I think they've seen the 780 00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:15,880 Speaker 1: same thing with me against this Dallas team. Dallas just 781 00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:18,640 Speaker 1: not has not looked right with Dak. They keep winning, 782 00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:21,120 Speaker 1: they keep covering. It's a big deal. It's a revenge 783 00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,759 Speaker 1: spy divisional match up. I'm telling you the pros are. 784 00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:25,799 Speaker 1: The pros are on Washington football team like they're gonna 785 00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:27,400 Speaker 1: be on that money line. So if you don't like 786 00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:28,680 Speaker 1: the Tennessee you want I there are couple of you 787 00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:30,919 Speaker 1: want to flip out the value is worth it taking 788 00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:32,960 Speaker 1: that Washington That number should be seven. It's all up 789 00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:35,759 Speaker 1: to ten. They're getting at least plus one fifty maybe 790 00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,440 Speaker 1: plus one seventy five value on that money line. So 791 00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:41,680 Speaker 1: that's that's how it ended up with either Washington or Miami. 792 00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:44,920 Speaker 1: Their Washington game we didn't talk much about, but come 793 00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:47,960 Speaker 1: Sunday it might be a game that pinks back up. 794 00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:51,200 Speaker 1: So we're in the home shut here for survivor. I'll 795 00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:53,319 Speaker 1: be shocked if any of our fans are even left. 796 00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:55,239 Speaker 1: Who would you do this? Week. I mean that I 797 00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:59,239 Speaker 1: got email went about it. He had Atlanta, he had Chargers. 798 00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:01,520 Speaker 1: I feel like those are two of the best options 799 00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:04,279 Speaker 1: he gave to me. Um, where would you go? There? 800 00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:08,000 Speaker 1: Would you? I would probably just go Chargers, right Yeah, 801 00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:13,440 Speaker 1: I was gonna say Chargers. You can't rely on the Falcons, 802 00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:16,320 Speaker 1: right you. They're not a good enough team that you 803 00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:21,160 Speaker 1: can feel comfortable that on Sunday. It's it's a it's 804 00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:24,680 Speaker 1: an emotional thing, right, Like the Texans are a bad 805 00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:28,839 Speaker 1: team who could probably cover the Falcons playing a really 806 00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:31,120 Speaker 1: good team that could make the playoffs. The Falcons are 807 00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:32,520 Speaker 1: a bad team that is lucky to be in the 808 00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:36,160 Speaker 1: playoff race. There they're six and two against bad teams, 809 00:38:36,239 --> 00:38:38,360 Speaker 1: oh and six against good teams. But they are a 810 00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:41,160 Speaker 1: team that could go either away any single game. And 811 00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:44,680 Speaker 1: if you didn't use the Seahawks against Houston, it's another 812 00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:46,360 Speaker 1: one I would use. This week they're playing the Bears 813 00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:50,080 Speaker 1: at home. Um Seehawks should win that game. But no, man, 814 00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:52,040 Speaker 1: it's if you're left and survive or the options are 815 00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:53,839 Speaker 1: very ugly. Like I had a person other person reach 816 00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:55,840 Speaker 1: out to me, what do you like better Jet your 817 00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:57,960 Speaker 1: Jack's It's like that's what they got left. They got 818 00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:00,880 Speaker 1: a coin flip on that game, like, fuck man, some 819 00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:05,720 Speaker 1: Survivor is so tough, specially that is fucking brutal, brutal. 820 00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:10,480 Speaker 1: I think we covered it all. We covered a real 821 00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:14,879 Speaker 1: issue that is, uh, the NFL is confronting. We got 822 00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:17,239 Speaker 1: to a final five or six, we got a winning line, 823 00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:19,720 Speaker 1: parl it, we got Survivor, we got a big balls, 824 00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:23,440 Speaker 1: we got sharp calls. It's turned to head into the holiday. 825 00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:25,920 Speaker 1: My friends know it's crazy too, because we've had so 826 00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:28,560 Speaker 1: much football. I felt weird last night having NFL games 827 00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,839 Speaker 1: and now, all right, that was weird. It was like, oh, 828 00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:34,080 Speaker 1: this is what it's like to having night off. I'm 829 00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:38,320 Speaker 1: gonna tell you something. People judge me for this. I decided, 830 00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:40,759 Speaker 1: you know, I was going to take a night off. 831 00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:43,239 Speaker 1: There was no football. I'm not gonna be online. I'm 832 00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:47,480 Speaker 1: gonna relax. So I watched um the show The Good 833 00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:51,320 Speaker 1: Fight with Christine Baranski. It used to be The Good Wife. 834 00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:53,880 Speaker 1: That's so I like, how different we are? You did 835 00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:55,800 Speaker 1: that and I broke a bunch of laws. I legally 836 00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,080 Speaker 1: streamed the New Spider Man movie, and I was pretty good. 837 00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:00,359 Speaker 1: I just I thought were such different people in that way. 838 00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:06,799 Speaker 1: I had one glass of whiskey, and I happily fell 839 00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:10,440 Speaker 1: asleep at ten o'clock at night. All right, brother, you're 840 00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:17,040 Speaker 1: the best. Happy holidays. Enjoy Christmas, Matt Mitchell, Enjoy Christmas 841 00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:20,919 Speaker 1: to all of our listeners. Happy healthy holidays. I hope 842 00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:23,520 Speaker 1: they win their bets. I hope everyone joins us that 843 00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:26,400 Speaker 1: convinced me on at Action Network gag Q to live 844 00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:29,240 Speaker 1: in a m Eastern Hope everyone follows the phase five 845 00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:31,719 Speaker 1: in the Action Network gaps so you can see what 846 00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:35,000 Speaker 1: picks we ultimately choose on Sunday morning. For Simon Hunter, 847 00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:37,440 Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. This has been the favorites from 848 00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:40,640 Speaker 1: the Volume Podcast Network. Download us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, 849 00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:44,120 Speaker 1: Review us, especially on Spotify, you can now review just 850 00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:48,800 Speaker 1: give us five stars until Tuesday. I love you