WEBVTT - What Worries UAW’s Striking Workers

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait Inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>All Right, everybody, Well, one of the risk overhangings on

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<v Speaker 2>financial Marcus, we've been talking about this certainly over the

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<v Speaker 2>last week or so, is that UAW strike now and

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<v Speaker 2>its second week, with economic losses already estimated at one

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<v Speaker 2>point six billion dollars. The standoff between the union and

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<v Speaker 2>the big US automakers remained far apart on key issues

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<v Speaker 2>such as pay benefits, also on terms I own. A.

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg News team spoke with struck some striking workers about

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<v Speaker 3>what has them worried and whether politicians can change that.

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<v Speaker 3>Here with the latest on the situation and what's on

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<v Speaker 3>the minds of those striking workers is Bloomberg News Real

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<v Speaker 3>Economy Team reporter Mark Niquette. He joins us on so

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<v Speaker 3>Marco to have you this afternoon, some really fantastic reporting

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<v Speaker 3>from the inside with you, Gaby Koppola, Josh Idelsin. First up, though,

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<v Speaker 3>just describe sort of the mood or the moods of

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<v Speaker 3>those that you know, you spoke to, who you worked with,

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<v Speaker 3>how would you describe how they're feeling.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, we essentially went to the picket lines of the

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<v Speaker 4>factories that are on strike. The UAW is doing sort

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<v Speaker 4>of a unique approach this time where they're striking all

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<v Speaker 4>three autoworkers a big three at the same time, but

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<v Speaker 4>limited plants, not all clients. And the workers who are

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<v Speaker 4>out on strike, I would say it's sort of a

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<v Speaker 4>mixed mood. They're happy to be fighting for what they

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<v Speaker 4>think they deserve, particularly after they gave up pay and

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<v Speaker 4>benefits after the financial collapse, but they're also worried about

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<v Speaker 4>obviously their jobs and.

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<v Speaker 5>The future, particularly for their job security.

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<v Speaker 4>One of the big issues on the picket line is

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<v Speaker 4>the transition to electric vehicles. It's sort of emerged as

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<v Speaker 4>a big issue in this strike right now because the.

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<v Speaker 5>Auto workers are very concerned.

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<v Speaker 4>That the fact that it takes fewer workers to put

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<v Speaker 4>together these electric vehicles, this could mean less job security

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<v Speaker 4>in the future.

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<v Speaker 2>You know what struck me. I think it was Jacob Bishop,

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<v Speaker 2>aged twenty three, you talked to and it said, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>in this transition to EV's like they get it, they

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<v Speaker 2>understand it's happening. He said. Many of us have accepted

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<v Speaker 2>that we want to make sure that in this transition

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<v Speaker 2>the companies don't try and use that as a little

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<v Speaker 2>bit of a scapegoat to try and transition. They are

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<v Speaker 2>relatively good paying union jobs, and you do wonder you know,

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<v Speaker 2>it wouldn't be the first time a company, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>kind of as we're going through, transition is a tough time.

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<v Speaker 2>And sorry, you know so, I mean, you understand really

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<v Speaker 2>these real concerns of these workers who are wondering, like

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<v Speaker 2>do we get lost in the shuffle right?

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<v Speaker 4>And then again, like you said, some of our outright

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<v Speaker 4>seguente about it, they would say, look, you know, we know,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, coal miners lost their jobs and when we

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<v Speaker 4>after the industrial revolution, you know, this is just sort

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<v Speaker 4>of the natural progress of things and has consequences. But

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<v Speaker 4>like I said that they definitely want to see in

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<v Speaker 4>the short term at least.

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<v Speaker 5>That they're taken care of. In particular, they.

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<v Speaker 4>Want to see pensions restored. It's going to be a

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<v Speaker 4>big issue in the negotiations because it's not clear yet,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, how we'll get to an agreement with the

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<v Speaker 4>automakers and and the u A w on pensions, but

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<v Speaker 4>they want to have that sense of security that you know,

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<v Speaker 4>they'll have something when they retire, in addition to the

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<v Speaker 4>colon and the pay increase and the other benefits that

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<v Speaker 4>they're looking for.

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<v Speaker 2>We want to ask you about Trump, because that was

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<v Speaker 2>certainly a factor, but I want to also ask you

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<v Speaker 2>what happened. What happened to those auto jobs that used

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<v Speaker 2>to provide a really good middle class you know living,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, a family that could not only just survive,

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<v Speaker 2>they could actually thrive.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that's another issue in the strike is sort of

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<v Speaker 4>these tear pays where you know, the folks who come

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<v Speaker 4>into the shops in the union at you know, the

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<v Speaker 4>entry level are paid less than the workers who have

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<v Speaker 4>been there longer. And you know, there's there's real concern that,

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<v Speaker 4>particularly on the on the entry level, it's not a

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<v Speaker 4>livable wage or it's not a wage that would allow

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<v Speaker 4>even these autoworkers to buy the products that they're making,

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<v Speaker 4>the cars that they're building. So it's and it's it's

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<v Speaker 4>a thorny issue because this is the sort of the

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<v Speaker 4>pay structure that the automakers have worked out in the

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<v Speaker 4>industry has worked out to allow them, the RT makers,

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<v Speaker 4>to be profitable. But you're right, it doesn't work for

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of workers, particularly at the lower end.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, let's talk numbers here, because one thing that

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<v Speaker 3>we have heard throughout the strike and even ahead of

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<v Speaker 3>the strike is the way that real wages have come

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<v Speaker 3>down as a result of inflation, but also as a

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<v Speaker 3>result of their wages just not keeping up with inflation

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<v Speaker 3>and not getting raises. One person who you and the

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<v Speaker 3>team spoke to, Robert Schuch, says that he earns only

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<v Speaker 3>two dollars and fifty three cents an hour more than

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<v Speaker 3>he did all the way back in two thousand and eight,

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<v Speaker 3>and that he and his wife they have to work

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<v Speaker 3>to put in overtime to make ends meet. Uh, this

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<v Speaker 3>is pretty shocking to see, given that how long ago

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<v Speaker 3>that was, how much more expensive things are now, and

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<v Speaker 3>their wages are still haven't haven't kept anywhere close to inflation.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and that's another factor that's that's playing out right

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<v Speaker 4>now with the strike, and that's just the high inflation environment.

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<v Speaker 5>You know who we are in the economy right now.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, these workers, like like everybody else, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>they have to buy red milk and gas and and

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<v Speaker 4>and they're seeing the prices moderate for sure, but you know,

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<v Speaker 4>not not enough for them to make ends meet. And

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<v Speaker 4>you know, it's sort of another worry because you know,

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<v Speaker 4>they do get a strike benefit while they're on the

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<v Speaker 4>picket line, but.

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<v Speaker 5>It's nowhere near with their salary. Is so more of

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<v Speaker 5>a complicated actor.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to ask you, you and Gabby and Josh,

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<v Speaker 2>what did as you were talking to workers, what was

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<v Speaker 2>the mood or the moods of those that you worked

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<v Speaker 2>with and and just kind of, you know, just get

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<v Speaker 2>a feel of how they were feeling. Were they just

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<v Speaker 2>you know, were they angry? Were they.

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<v Speaker 6>I don't know, like how.

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<v Speaker 2>Would you describe them? Was there a couple of words

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<v Speaker 2>to describe overall the group?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I don't know if there was a sort of

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<v Speaker 5>a consistent theme there. I mean it was it was almost,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, depending on the individual and what the individual

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<v Speaker 5>circumstances were.

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<v Speaker 4>Some were definitely angry, you know that they had to

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<v Speaker 4>be out on this picket line.

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<v Speaker 5>They felt like, you know, this, this this could have

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<v Speaker 5>been avoided that you.

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<v Speaker 4>Know, the company, particularly with the company executives making millions

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<v Speaker 4>of dollars, they feel like, you know, there could have

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<v Speaker 4>been more spreading around of the money and you know, taking.

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<v Speaker 5>Care of them without having to go on strike.

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<v Speaker 4>Others are are sort of happy, i would say, for

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<v Speaker 4>the ability to fight for what they think they deserved.

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<v Speaker 4>So while they would prefer, I'm sure, not to be

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<v Speaker 4>on strike, you know, they're certainly willing to, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>stand next to the barrel and you know, wave the signs.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think they're also encouraged by the support they're getting.

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<v Speaker 4>If you stand on the picket lines in Detroit, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>cars passing our hopey horns, and you know folks are

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<v Speaker 4>bringing in uh water and you know, donations to buttress

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<v Speaker 4>the workers. So I think there's a society they are

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<v Speaker 4>being supported in the strike.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the reporting you did and Gabby Coppola and Josh Eidelson,

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<v Speaker 2>it really just give us a feel of truly how

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<v Speaker 2>these guys are feeling and why they're at on strike,

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<v Speaker 2>So we so appreciate it. Bloomberg News Real Economy Team

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<v Speaker 2>reporter Mark Naquette joining us on zoom and Columbus, Ohio.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 2>All right, everybody, This week has been full of AI

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<v Speaker 2>related news.

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<v Speaker 7>We just talked about Nvidia, the raid over in their

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<v Speaker 7>French offices, concerns about anti competitive practices. Of course, that

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<v Speaker 7>has been the AI stock I feel like of the year,

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<v Speaker 7>or at least one of them meta platforms. Those shares higher

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<v Speaker 7>on today, I should say, in the trade after Alice

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<v Speaker 7>Wad and positively on the AI potential of the new

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<v Speaker 7>artificial intelligence features that we talked about yesterday. The company

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<v Speaker 7>unveiling its annual developers conference yesterday and veiled there. Wall

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<v Speaker 7>Street Journal also reporting earlier this week that Open Ai,

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<v Speaker 7>the company behind chat chept, tim exploring a sale of

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<v Speaker 7>shares that could value the company up to ninety billion.

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<v Speaker 2>That's a pretty big deal.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a huge deal. Okay, So we know we can

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<v Speaker 3>use AI to chat with Tom Brady if you're soon,

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<v Speaker 3>if you're using meta platforms new Thing or Snoop dogg

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<v Speaker 3>or like you know, help you with recipes if you're

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<v Speaker 3>using chat gpt. But what about AI when it comes

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<v Speaker 3>to medicine, Carol? How can it help doctors make better

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<v Speaker 3>decisions and ultimately make us healthier and live longer.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, well with us to talk about that. Elizabeth Stoddinger.

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<v Speaker 2>She is managing board member at Seamen's Health and Years.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a fifty seven billion dollar medical tech company that

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<v Speaker 2>does medical imaging, testing, diagnostics and more. Delighted to have

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<v Speaker 2>her with us on Zoom from Munich, Germany. Elizabeth, thank

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<v Speaker 2>you so much for joining us on Bloomberg Business Week.

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<v Speaker 2>I think we are all curious about the value of

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<v Speaker 2>AI as it starts to seep into all walks of

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<v Speaker 2>life personally and professionally. Give us some insight about how

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<v Speaker 2>you all are thinking about it.

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<v Speaker 8>If you think of a world where getting healthy and

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<v Speaker 8>staying healthy is a right and not a luxury, regardless

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<v Speaker 8>of whether you are in Vietnam or a head of state.

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<v Speaker 8>If that's a vision you want to buy into and

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<v Speaker 8>you believe in, then AI actually can be one of

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<v Speaker 8>the leavers that can help us get there.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, So what does that look like in terms of

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<v Speaker 3>diagnostic imaging? I mean this is when I think about

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<v Speaker 3>a lot. You know, we have people reading mammograms, and

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<v Speaker 3>people reading mammograms miss things, They make mistakes.

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<v Speaker 8>That's absolutely right, because reading mammograph is quite it's not

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<v Speaker 8>so easy to do and you need a lot of experience.

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<v Speaker 8>And that is one of the beautiful use cases and

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<v Speaker 8>examples where artificial intelligence really can help physicians find the

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<v Speaker 8>most suspicious parts of the mammogram much faster and also

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<v Speaker 8>can help with guiding attention to potentially suspicious lesions and

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<v Speaker 8>thereby support physicians to make diagnosis in a more accurate

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<v Speaker 8>way and also look after more patients. So this is

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<v Speaker 8>actually one of the really very real use cases which

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<v Speaker 8>already make a difference for patients today.

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<v Speaker 2>Elizabeth, as a world globally, are we all going to

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<v Speaker 2>work together on this so that we can get to

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<v Speaker 2>the power of generative AI and its impact on the

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<v Speaker 2>global world sooner rather than later. And I asked that

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<v Speaker 2>because you have is Tim reminded me incredible experience working overseas,

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<v Speaker 2>especially in China in particular you lead the Semen's Health

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<v Speaker 2>and Ear's business in Asia Pacific. There's just lots of

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<v Speaker 2>experience with that at a time where there's lots of

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<v Speaker 2>global tensions. I mean, just this week or we recently

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<v Speaker 2>talked about technology rules and the EU model versus the

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<v Speaker 2>US model. Versus the Chinese model and how it plays out.

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<v Speaker 2>So give us some insight and smart narrative if you will,

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<v Speaker 2>or a smart narrative on how we need to think

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<v Speaker 2>about this and what kind of collaboration we need.

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<v Speaker 8>If you think about building high quality AI solutions which

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<v Speaker 8>make a benefit for patients, there is a few ground

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<v Speaker 8>rules you have to follow. First of all, you have

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<v Speaker 8>to make it easy for physicians to adopt the tools

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<v Speaker 8>and the possibilities of AI in their tools. And secondly,

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<v Speaker 8>and this is very important, you need high quality data

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<v Speaker 8>and you need lots of it. And in order to

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<v Speaker 8>provide that strong foundation to build meaningful and impactful AI algorithms,

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<v Speaker 8>you do benefit from leveraging a global network to collect

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<v Speaker 8>the images. Make sure you annotate the images in a

0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:16.360
<v Speaker 8>good way that you can use them for training AI algorithms.

0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:20.560
<v Speaker 8>So we collaborate with scientists and clinical partners all over

0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:25.200
<v Speaker 8>the world. We've collected more than a billion images and

0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:28.960
<v Speaker 8>we then feed these images into our supercomputer, which is

0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:32.160
<v Speaker 8>actually based in the United States, and we call the

0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:36.200
<v Speaker 8>computer Charlocke because it helps us find the most relevant

0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:37.679
<v Speaker 8>bits and pieces of information.

0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:42.160
<v Speaker 3>I want to go back to just talking about China,

0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:45.719
<v Speaker 3>because you did spend so much time in China, and

0:12:45.960 --> 0:12:49.439
<v Speaker 3>I'm curious, Elizabeth, you must still know people on the

0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:51.600
<v Speaker 3>ground there. We've talked so much over the last few

0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:54.480
<v Speaker 3>months about the economic woes facing China. What are you

0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:56.280
<v Speaker 3>hearing from your contacts there right now.

0:12:58.440 --> 0:13:02.080
<v Speaker 8>I mean, China is and always has been a very

0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:05.560
<v Speaker 8>fascinating place for me personally. It's a place where I've

0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:08.360
<v Speaker 8>spent a lot of time, where I keep going back

0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:12.800
<v Speaker 8>to regularly, and I've always been really inspired by the

0:13:12.960 --> 0:13:15.840
<v Speaker 8>energy and by the drive of the people in China,

0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:20.319
<v Speaker 8>by the willingness to continue to build their country and

0:13:20.840 --> 0:13:24.800
<v Speaker 8>their economy. Now, following the experience of the last three

0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:28.480
<v Speaker 8>years with the very stringent COVID measurements, I mean, there

0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:32.920
<v Speaker 8>is some thought process going on where people go back

0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:36.880
<v Speaker 8>and say, well, maybe we could have done this differently

0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:41.880
<v Speaker 8>as well, and people are feeling the impact now of

0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:46.480
<v Speaker 8>the slower economy. At the same time, I continue to

0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:50.839
<v Speaker 8>be optimistic and positive about China. The economy continues to grow,

0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:53.760
<v Speaker 8>and I'm quite confident we will see it picking up

0:13:53.840 --> 0:13:54.160
<v Speaker 8>a game.

0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:56.880
<v Speaker 2>Put on a corporate put on a corporate perspective. Is

0:13:57.000 --> 0:14:01.439
<v Speaker 2>China still the friend of EU? Corporations or companies in

0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:04.560
<v Speaker 2>the EU, companies in the United States, is there going

0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:07.640
<v Speaker 2>to be that collaboration on things like new science or

0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:09.640
<v Speaker 2>new technology.

0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:12.920
<v Speaker 8>I mean, for us, over the past years, we have

0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:20.120
<v Speaker 8>moved focus into also understanding what do patients in China need.

0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:24.480
<v Speaker 8>China has a population of one point four billion people,

0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:29.880
<v Speaker 8>and these people need healthcare and want better healthcare. So

0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:34.560
<v Speaker 8>we have added also our and d activities in China

0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:38.400
<v Speaker 8>to our global network, and we continue to believe that

0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:41.800
<v Speaker 8>for the benefit of patients globally, there is value in

0:14:42.320 --> 0:14:46.480
<v Speaker 8>keeping the collaboration and working together on addressing some of

0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:52.360
<v Speaker 8>the most some of the most challenging topics for mankind, like,

0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:54.760
<v Speaker 8>for instance, addressing the threat of cancer.

0:14:55.920 --> 0:14:58.080
<v Speaker 2>Just one last question and just got about thirty forty

0:14:58.080 --> 0:15:02.280
<v Speaker 2>seconds here, how are you thinking about how AI could

0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:05.800
<v Speaker 2>really change the way medicine works.

0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:13.880
<v Speaker 8>ICAI as a phenomenal opportunity because it will help us

0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:17.400
<v Speaker 8>to address some of the most pressing needs that we're

0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:20.360
<v Speaker 8>facing in healthcare systems. We don't have enough people. There

0:15:20.440 --> 0:15:24.440
<v Speaker 8>is mistakes that people grow older, there is certain diseases

0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:27.680
<v Speaker 8>which become chronic, and in all of these areas AI

0:15:28.200 --> 0:15:31.160
<v Speaker 8>can and will make a difference. So to me, AI

0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:34.920
<v Speaker 8>is really it's not a threat, it's an opportunity and

0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:37.760
<v Speaker 8>if we make right use of it, it can help

0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:41.680
<v Speaker 8>us focus us humans on what we do best and

0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:45.320
<v Speaker 8>get the support of the AI to treat more people

0:15:45.680 --> 0:15:48.880
<v Speaker 8>in more places and on a higher quality level around

0:15:48.880 --> 0:15:49.240
<v Speaker 8>the world.

0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:52.040
<v Speaker 2>Elizabeth a great. I really appreciate your time, Elizabeth Stottinger.

0:15:52.120 --> 0:15:54.520
<v Speaker 2>She is managing board member of its Semen's Health and Yours.

0:15:54.600 --> 0:15:59.440
<v Speaker 2>Joining us on zoom from Munich, Germany, you're.

0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:02.920
<v Speaker 1>Listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live

0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:06.760
<v Speaker 1>weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:10.160
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen

0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:13.360
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:16.840
<v Speaker 1>Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:20.200
<v Speaker 2>So over the summer. In July, to be exact, Bloomberg

0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:23.280
<v Speaker 2>News came out reporting that US venture capital deal spending

0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:26.360
<v Speaker 2>fell by half in the second quarter, funding fewer startups,

0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:28.440
<v Speaker 2>especially at the early stages of a company's life. This

0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:31.000
<v Speaker 2>is according actually to data from research firm Pitchbooks. So

0:16:31.160 --> 0:16:33.600
<v Speaker 2>we'll be looking for kind of the update on these numbers.

0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:34.960
<v Speaker 3>You know what, they say you got to adjust for

0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:37.440
<v Speaker 3>one time things. Okay, So if you do the math,

0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:39.680
<v Speaker 3>take out that more than six five billion dollars that

0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:42.880
<v Speaker 3>investors spent on payments company Stripe, and the total looks

0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:46.360
<v Speaker 3>even worse. That's according to Pitchburg analyst Kyle Stanford. We

0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:47.880
<v Speaker 3>got a great guest on the VC world.

0:16:48.000 --> 0:16:49.760
<v Speaker 2>Yes, let's get to it. Michael Marx is with us,

0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:52.800
<v Speaker 2>founding managing partner at the venture capital firm Celesta Capital.

0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:55.400
<v Speaker 2>He's with us on Zoom from Mulla, Nebraska. By the way,

0:16:55.440 --> 0:16:58.000
<v Speaker 2>his firm is funded over one hundred tech companies twenty

0:16:58.080 --> 0:17:01.400
<v Speaker 2>nine exits to date, and prior to Celestia, Michael was

0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:04.439
<v Speaker 2>a founding partner at Riverwood Capital, a Menlo Park based

0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:07.520
<v Speaker 2>private equity firm. He also served as partner and senior

0:17:07.560 --> 0:17:10.080
<v Speaker 2>advisor at kk R. He'spent thirteen years of CEO and

0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:13.280
<v Speaker 2>then chairman of Flextronics International. Also served as an interim

0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:15.960
<v Speaker 2>CEO a Tesla three months back in seven. So he

0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:19.320
<v Speaker 2>comes at this just to remind everybody with a great perspective. Michael,

0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:21.119
<v Speaker 2>great to have you back with us. How are you

0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:23.639
<v Speaker 2>and how would you describe the VC space right now?

0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:28.160
<v Speaker 9>Well, thanks for having me on I've been great. Look,

0:17:28.200 --> 0:17:29.960
<v Speaker 9>the VC space is fantastic.

0:17:30.040 --> 0:17:30.320
<v Speaker 5>Now.

0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:33.600
<v Speaker 9>There's lots of lots of noise in the system because

0:17:33.600 --> 0:17:35.600
<v Speaker 9>of you know, the stock market going down and less

0:17:35.640 --> 0:17:40.680
<v Speaker 9>I pos and so on, but it is an incredibly

0:17:40.800 --> 0:17:44.640
<v Speaker 9>active environment. We're seeing better companies than we've really ever seen.

0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:45.240
<v Speaker 9>It's great.

0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:49.080
<v Speaker 3>What's so great about it? Well, what's great? I got

0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:50.480
<v Speaker 3>the memo. But rates are high right now?

0:17:51.440 --> 0:17:55.440
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, Actually that that's actually helping the in the venture world.

0:17:56.040 --> 0:17:59.840
<v Speaker 9>So look what you know, values go up and go down.

0:18:00.080 --> 0:18:03.320
<v Speaker 9>It's better for venture capitalists when values are down. And

0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:06.040
<v Speaker 9>values are down now because of the reasons we just

0:18:06.080 --> 0:18:09.480
<v Speaker 9>talked about it, there's you know, there's there's less exits

0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:14.280
<v Speaker 9>and and frankly, the venture firms are husbanding their cash

0:18:14.320 --> 0:18:17.639
<v Speaker 9>to be able to support their best companies, and so

0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:20.800
<v Speaker 9>there's less money for new companies, which is which is

0:18:20.840 --> 0:18:22.960
<v Speaker 9>good if you have capital to deploy, which we do.

0:18:23.760 --> 0:18:26.600
<v Speaker 9>What's great about this environment and and and I think

0:18:26.600 --> 0:18:31.320
<v Speaker 9>it's what really defines venture capital these days is that

0:18:31.520 --> 0:18:33.359
<v Speaker 9>you know, venture I've been around for a long time.

0:18:33.480 --> 0:18:36.120
<v Speaker 9>Venture capital started in the sixties and the seventies with

0:18:36.200 --> 0:18:38.439
<v Speaker 9>you know, Sequoia Capital and Kliner Perkins and any of

0:18:38.440 --> 0:18:41.560
<v Speaker 9>these companies you know started come you know, out of

0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:46.679
<v Speaker 9>fair Child Semiconductor, National Semiconductor there for the name Silicon Valley,

0:18:47.119 --> 0:18:51.000
<v Speaker 9>and so the venture business in those days was pretty

0:18:51.040 --> 0:18:55.119
<v Speaker 9>much limited to semiconductors. Then you had computers and cell phones,

0:18:55.160 --> 0:18:59.119
<v Speaker 9>whole computing revolution, you know, than than enterprise software and

0:18:59.320 --> 0:19:03.800
<v Speaker 9>sasact and then came e commerce. And now here you

0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:06.600
<v Speaker 9>are in twenty twenty three with you still have all

0:19:06.760 --> 0:19:12.679
<v Speaker 9>those I'm sure you recognize what's happening to the semiconductor world.

0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:16.280
<v Speaker 9>But now we have you know, bioconvergence, all kinds of biotechnology,

0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:19.840
<v Speaker 9>of climate investing, of energy investing, and so there are many,

0:19:19.920 --> 0:19:22.159
<v Speaker 9>many more companies and more choices to invest in it.

0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:24.080
<v Speaker 9>So it's a great time to be a venture capitalist.

0:19:24.480 --> 0:19:28.040
<v Speaker 3>Hey, okay, forgive me here, but this is you're based

0:19:28.040 --> 0:19:31.119
<v Speaker 3>in Menlo Park. We spoke to Steve Case yesterday who

0:19:31.119 --> 0:19:34.440
<v Speaker 3>talked all about the opportunities between California and New York.

0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:36.840
<v Speaker 3>You're in Mullen, Nebraska right now. What brings you to Mullen.

0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:40.639
<v Speaker 9>I'm just visiting friends, okay.

0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:42.200
<v Speaker 3>Because this is a tiny town with like five hundred people.

0:19:42.920 --> 0:19:43.680
<v Speaker 9>I do exactly.

0:19:43.920 --> 0:19:46.000
<v Speaker 3>I don't know if you were exploring some venture opportunities

0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:49.080
<v Speaker 3>in Mullen. I am, okay, we'll tell Steve case.

0:19:49.520 --> 0:19:51.600
<v Speaker 2>Well, it's interesting, you sound very upbeat and you talked

0:19:51.600 --> 0:19:54.040
<v Speaker 2>about the rate environment. How that's a helpful to you.

0:19:54.359 --> 0:19:56.760
<v Speaker 2>I also was curious about before we get into some

0:19:56.760 --> 0:20:00.159
<v Speaker 2>of the areas you're investing the private lending space. I

0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:02.000
<v Speaker 2>know they tend to play more in the middle market

0:20:02.000 --> 0:20:04.960
<v Speaker 2>and it's not necessarily early in startups, but is that

0:20:05.040 --> 0:20:08.480
<v Speaker 2>at all having an impact on deals or valuations for you?

0:20:09.560 --> 0:20:12.399
<v Speaker 9>It is, in fact, it's having a big impact in

0:20:12.440 --> 0:20:14.919
<v Speaker 9>a couple of ways. One is that you know, the

0:20:15.040 --> 0:20:18.280
<v Speaker 9>cost of borrowing, you know, if you think about venture debts.

0:20:18.280 --> 0:20:21.719
<v Speaker 9>So venture debt, which is important in the venture industry,

0:20:21.760 --> 0:20:24.160
<v Speaker 9>has taken two hits. The first hit was Selgan Valley

0:20:24.160 --> 0:20:27.280
<v Speaker 9>Bank went out and that was the biggest lenders to

0:20:27.440 --> 0:20:30.399
<v Speaker 9>the space. And the second is the cost of capital

0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:33.119
<v Speaker 9>has gone way up. And so when it comes to

0:20:33.280 --> 0:20:37.920
<v Speaker 9>raising capital, for example from limited partners. You know, now

0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:41.399
<v Speaker 9>limited partners can get can invest in credit funds and

0:20:41.440 --> 0:20:44.720
<v Speaker 9>get twelve to fifteen percent IRRs without taking very much risk.

0:20:45.160 --> 0:20:48.200
<v Speaker 9>And so that does siphon capital out of the out

0:20:48.240 --> 0:20:49.000
<v Speaker 9>of the venture world.

0:20:49.680 --> 0:20:53.119
<v Speaker 2>All right, so let's talk about where you're investing. We know,

0:20:53.320 --> 0:20:57.760
<v Speaker 2>deep technologies where you play, so AI, semis, semi conductor's, biotech,

0:20:57.800 --> 0:21:01.520
<v Speaker 2>cloud infrastructure. What's really exciting and active right now where

0:21:01.560 --> 0:21:05.160
<v Speaker 2>you are looking and hungrily to kind of amp your

0:21:05.160 --> 0:21:06.719
<v Speaker 2>exposure in the VC space.

0:21:07.600 --> 0:21:09.680
<v Speaker 9>Well, thank you for that question. It's actually a really

0:21:09.680 --> 0:21:12.320
<v Speaker 9>good question because there are lots of opportunities and we

0:21:12.400 --> 0:21:15.240
<v Speaker 9>have to get focused. I'd say there are two areas

0:21:15.080 --> 0:21:19.159
<v Speaker 9>that we find the most attractive right now. One is semiconductors.

0:21:19.280 --> 0:21:22.359
<v Speaker 9>I mean, it's amazing how few people have wanted to

0:21:22.400 --> 0:21:24.960
<v Speaker 9>invest in semiconductors over the last twenty or thirty years.

0:21:25.359 --> 0:21:27.280
<v Speaker 9>And now you have you know, my good friend Jensen

0:21:27.320 --> 0:21:30.560
<v Speaker 9>Wang at Nvidia, and you've got you know, hot Tan

0:21:30.720 --> 0:21:34.000
<v Speaker 9>over Broadcom and Qualcomm and so on. You know, these

0:21:34.000 --> 0:21:36.320
<v Speaker 9>are becoming some of the most valuable companies in the world.

0:21:36.480 --> 0:21:39.360
<v Speaker 9>And then you have a generative AI, which requires much

0:21:39.440 --> 0:21:42.800
<v Speaker 9>higher speeds, you know, much more memory management, and so

0:21:42.880 --> 0:21:46.960
<v Speaker 9>there's an explosion of new kinds of semiconductors. So we

0:21:47.040 --> 0:21:50.280
<v Speaker 9>have two companies in our portfolio that make processors along

0:21:50.280 --> 0:21:53.679
<v Speaker 9>the lines of what Nvidia does, but more specialized for

0:21:53.760 --> 0:21:58.320
<v Speaker 9>certain applications, but then you also have you know, connectors, semiconductors,

0:21:58.359 --> 0:22:00.199
<v Speaker 9>you need a lot more throughput and so on. So

0:22:00.240 --> 0:22:03.560
<v Speaker 9>this is actually placed right to our strength and we've

0:22:03.600 --> 0:22:06.120
<v Speaker 9>made a number of investments that are doing really well.

0:22:06.200 --> 0:22:08.679
<v Speaker 2>You mentioned it, Can I just say you mentioned Nvidia

0:22:08.720 --> 0:22:10.520
<v Speaker 2>And we did a story earlier at the top of

0:22:10.520 --> 0:22:13.119
<v Speaker 2>our broadcast about how there are French offices were rated

0:22:13.480 --> 0:22:16.760
<v Speaker 2>by France's Anti Trust authority over concerns the companies engage

0:22:16.760 --> 0:22:19.000
<v Speaker 2>in anti competitive behavior. This is coming from the Wall

0:22:19.040 --> 0:22:23.000
<v Speaker 2>Street Journal. Any thoughts though about Nvidia and practices And

0:22:23.119 --> 0:22:25.560
<v Speaker 2>I don't know about the industry, I.

0:22:25.880 --> 0:22:28.159
<v Speaker 9>Really don't, you know, I don't know about that, so

0:22:28.240 --> 0:22:31.280
<v Speaker 9>I really couldn't get any about it. But it's a

0:22:31.320 --> 0:22:34.520
<v Speaker 9>wonderful company, do you think, and a very company.

0:22:34.600 --> 0:22:38.000
<v Speaker 3>These it's really really tough to make semis and uh,

0:22:38.320 --> 0:22:42.000
<v Speaker 3>you know, we've seen the way that TSMC is doing well.

0:22:42.040 --> 0:22:43.879
<v Speaker 3>We've seen just the in the in the industry, like

0:22:43.920 --> 0:22:48.600
<v Speaker 3>you know, we covered TSMC and video. Can startups actually

0:22:49.160 --> 0:22:51.600
<v Speaker 3>pull it off or is this something that you know

0:22:51.640 --> 0:22:53.000
<v Speaker 3>you have to rely on the big guys.

0:22:52.800 --> 0:22:56.879
<v Speaker 9>For you know, it's another tough question. The answer is

0:22:57.280 --> 0:22:59.600
<v Speaker 9>it takes a lot of support to be a semiconductor

0:22:59.640 --> 0:23:02.400
<v Speaker 9>company today. You're exactly right. I mean, to tape out

0:23:02.400 --> 0:23:05.600
<v Speaker 9>a three three narimeter chip at TSMC can be one

0:23:05.640 --> 0:23:10.159
<v Speaker 9>hundred million dollars, So that is typically So what we

0:23:10.240 --> 0:23:13.200
<v Speaker 9>do from a venture standpoint is help get these companies started,

0:23:13.640 --> 0:23:16.280
<v Speaker 9>but they really need growth capital or private equity capital

0:23:16.280 --> 0:23:18.480
<v Speaker 9>to get to the finish line in that kind of

0:23:18.480 --> 0:23:21.760
<v Speaker 9>a semiconductor segment. There are other semi conductor segments. Center

0:23:21.800 --> 0:23:25.040
<v Speaker 9>and is expensive. But of course TSMC is one of

0:23:25.080 --> 0:23:27.119
<v Speaker 9>the most powerful companies in the world because they're the

0:23:27.119 --> 0:23:30.080
<v Speaker 9>only company that can really do this at the most

0:23:30.240 --> 0:23:33.280
<v Speaker 9>you know, the smallest geometries. But yeah, that's this is

0:23:33.280 --> 0:23:34.720
<v Speaker 9>the world that takes a lot of capital.

0:23:34.880 --> 0:23:37.000
<v Speaker 2>Hey, Michael, sorry, we're run out of time. Do come

0:23:37.040 --> 0:23:39.000
<v Speaker 2>back soon because I'd love to talk more about where

0:23:39.000 --> 0:23:42.480
<v Speaker 2>you guys are investing in this world. Michael Marks, founding

0:23:42.520 --> 0:23:45.560
<v Speaker 2>managing partner at the venture capital firm Celesta Capel, joining

0:23:45.640 --> 0:23:47.760
<v Speaker 2>us on Zoom from mull In, Nebraska, but as we know,

0:23:48.560 --> 0:23:50.480
<v Speaker 2>he is based out there on the West Coast. You're

0:23:50.520 --> 0:23:52.080
<v Speaker 2>listening and watching Bloomberg Radio.

0:23:56.080 --> 0:23:59.640
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:23:59.640 --> 0:24:03.080
<v Speaker 1>Live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on.

0:24:03.080 --> 0:24:05.920
<v Speaker 6>Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the.

0:24:05.880 --> 0:24:10.879
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business app, or wants us Live on YouTube.

0:24:15.680 --> 0:24:17.760
<v Speaker 2>All right, this next story safe to say. We're trying

0:24:17.760 --> 0:24:20.720
<v Speaker 2>to figure out exactly who may be the bad actors here.

0:24:20.960 --> 0:24:24.879
<v Speaker 2>You can say bad boys, bad boys. Step back first. Google,

0:24:24.920 --> 0:24:27.639
<v Speaker 2>as you know, maintains one of the world's most comprehensive

0:24:27.680 --> 0:24:31.000
<v Speaker 2>repositories of location information. It can often estimate a user's

0:24:31.040 --> 0:24:35.080
<v Speaker 2>weirreabouts two within several feet. The company mainly gathers this

0:24:35.200 --> 0:24:39.639
<v Speaker 2>information to sell advertising, but in recent years police started

0:24:39.640 --> 0:24:41.960
<v Speaker 2>dipping into it to further their investigations.

0:24:42.040 --> 0:24:45.000
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, the company's trove of user data now attracts thousands

0:24:45.040 --> 0:24:47.639
<v Speaker 3>of requests from law enforcement across the US in cases

0:24:47.720 --> 0:24:50.720
<v Speaker 3>large and small. Police say the warrants can unearth valuable

0:24:50.800 --> 0:24:52.840
<v Speaker 3>leads when the texts are at a loss. But to

0:24:52.920 --> 0:24:55.960
<v Speaker 3>get those leads, cops often have to rummage through Google

0:24:56.040 --> 0:24:58.640
<v Speaker 3>data on people who had nothing to do with a crime.

0:24:58.640 --> 0:25:00.399
<v Speaker 2>Car There's a lot of information there for them to

0:25:00.440 --> 0:25:03.560
<v Speaker 2>go over to better understand this process and its consequences,

0:25:03.640 --> 0:25:05.960
<v Speaker 2>we dive into this week's Bloomberg Business Week cover story

0:25:05.960 --> 0:25:08.320
<v Speaker 2>with our Bloomberg News Tech team of Julia Love and

0:25:08.400 --> 0:25:10.359
<v Speaker 2>Davey Alba, as well as the editor of the magazine,

0:25:10.440 --> 0:25:13.439
<v Speaker 2>Joel Weber. Jill's here in our Bloomberg Interactor Brokers studio,

0:25:13.560 --> 0:25:16.120
<v Speaker 2>Julia out there in our San Francisco bureau, and Davy

0:25:16.200 --> 0:25:18.400
<v Speaker 2>on the phone from Stanford, California. As you said, it's

0:25:18.400 --> 0:25:21.680
<v Speaker 2>the cover story in the new issue on newstands online,

0:25:21.680 --> 0:25:24.240
<v Speaker 2>and of course on the Bloomberg Jel Killer story.

0:25:24.880 --> 0:25:28.280
<v Speaker 10>Julia, Davey and company have been working on this for

0:25:28.640 --> 0:25:31.400
<v Speaker 10>a while and I from the moment I found out

0:25:31.400 --> 0:25:35.840
<v Speaker 10>about it, I was like, tell me everything. And it

0:25:35.960 --> 0:25:40.040
<v Speaker 10>required just a ton of data and analysis for us

0:25:40.080 --> 0:25:42.320
<v Speaker 10>to actually be able to look at this story. But

0:25:42.359 --> 0:25:46.800
<v Speaker 10>what it revealed is that there's a troubling element to

0:25:46.920 --> 0:25:52.760
<v Speaker 10>how law enforcement has turned increasingly to Google over the

0:25:52.760 --> 0:25:56.280
<v Speaker 10>past couple of years, and the location history that people

0:25:56.560 --> 0:26:00.760
<v Speaker 10>have on their phone search data. All of that is

0:26:00.800 --> 0:26:05.080
<v Speaker 10>basically become a tool that can reverse engineer people who

0:26:05.119 --> 0:26:10.679
<v Speaker 10>were at scenes of crimes, and sometimes being at a

0:26:10.720 --> 0:26:13.800
<v Speaker 10>location neurolocation does not actually mean that you did the crime,

0:26:13.840 --> 0:26:16.399
<v Speaker 10>and that's sort of where it gets interesting. And where

0:26:17.400 --> 0:26:21.720
<v Speaker 10>privacy experts in particular are a little terrified of how

0:26:21.760 --> 0:26:25.119
<v Speaker 10>this is actually shaping up in the real world. So Julie,

0:26:25.160 --> 0:26:27.560
<v Speaker 10>let's start with you. How did you, how did how

0:26:27.600 --> 0:26:31.600
<v Speaker 10>did you happen upon this story? And where did where

0:26:31.600 --> 0:26:33.440
<v Speaker 10>did you have to go in order to piece it

0:26:33.480 --> 0:26:33.960
<v Speaker 10>all together?

0:26:35.680 --> 0:26:38.800
<v Speaker 11>Sure, well, in the wake of the Supreme Court's decision

0:26:39.080 --> 0:26:41.679
<v Speaker 11>to overturn Roe versus Way, there was a lot of

0:26:41.720 --> 0:26:44.679
<v Speaker 11>interest in how law enforcement would use all of the

0:26:44.760 --> 0:26:48.439
<v Speaker 11>data that DOODLE has about us, and so we wanted

0:26:48.480 --> 0:26:51.440
<v Speaker 11>to look at the search warrants that police are submitting

0:26:51.480 --> 0:26:54.640
<v Speaker 11>to DOODLE because we knew that that was the best

0:26:54.640 --> 0:26:58.000
<v Speaker 11>way that we did a handle on what was actually happening.

0:26:58.080 --> 0:27:01.680
<v Speaker 11>And so to do that and I and our colleges

0:27:01.760 --> 0:27:05.359
<v Speaker 11>fanned out to different courthouses around the country and we

0:27:05.560 --> 0:27:09.560
<v Speaker 11>just took it page by page, thumbing through these warrants,

0:27:09.680 --> 0:27:13.160
<v Speaker 11>identifying the ones that were submitted to DOODLE, and then

0:27:13.200 --> 0:27:16.480
<v Speaker 11>scrutinizing them to see the nature of the case and

0:27:16.920 --> 0:27:18.360
<v Speaker 11>what cops ultimately got.

0:27:18.600 --> 0:27:21.040
<v Speaker 10>So give us an example of how this has played

0:27:21.080 --> 0:27:22.720
<v Speaker 10>out in the real world.

0:27:24.359 --> 0:27:27.439
<v Speaker 11>So one interesting example, there was a young detective in

0:27:27.480 --> 0:27:30.200
<v Speaker 11>North Carolina. He's getting ready for work.

0:27:30.680 --> 0:27:31.359
<v Speaker 8>He leaves his.

0:27:31.240 --> 0:27:34.200
<v Speaker 11>Car running and he comes out and the car's gone

0:27:34.359 --> 0:27:39.520
<v Speaker 11>and inside is sent the car. Hearne like, yes, it

0:27:39.720 --> 0:27:43.280
<v Speaker 11>is personal vehicle. Yeah, but but but there's near inside

0:27:43.600 --> 0:27:47.240
<v Speaker 11>and it's done, and you know, the department tells him,

0:27:47.280 --> 0:27:50.240
<v Speaker 11>you know, they're very supportive. They reassure him it'll be

0:27:50.280 --> 0:27:52.600
<v Speaker 11>all right. But then they go to work and they

0:27:52.720 --> 0:27:57.360
<v Speaker 11>turn to Doodle. They send them a warrant for everyone

0:27:57.480 --> 0:28:03.240
<v Speaker 11>who's devices were near the place where the vehicle disappeared.

0:28:03.720 --> 0:28:07.480
<v Speaker 11>And they also asked for information about people who searched

0:28:07.600 --> 0:28:11.640
<v Speaker 11>for the model of the radio. And Goodle told us

0:28:11.680 --> 0:28:14.880
<v Speaker 11>that they didn't provide search data, but they did provide

0:28:14.960 --> 0:28:18.320
<v Speaker 11>some location data. And so this is, you know, just

0:28:18.359 --> 0:28:23.440
<v Speaker 11>a real world example of how property crimes are attracting

0:28:23.480 --> 0:28:24.200
<v Speaker 11>these requests.

0:28:24.280 --> 0:28:26.159
<v Speaker 3>And obviously with that information they were able to get

0:28:26.200 --> 0:28:30.280
<v Speaker 3>the radio back, right, they were not the radio outstanding.

0:28:30.560 --> 0:28:31.120
<v Speaker 3>Can you see?

0:28:32.280 --> 0:28:34.399
<v Speaker 2>So Davey, come on in on this, because what it

0:28:34.440 --> 0:28:36.840
<v Speaker 2>really turns upside down And you guys lay this out

0:28:36.960 --> 0:28:39.640
<v Speaker 2>so clearly in the story. The idea of a search warrant,

0:28:39.720 --> 0:28:43.840
<v Speaker 2>right would be typically on an individual, right, And now

0:28:44.040 --> 0:28:46.480
<v Speaker 2>you've got thanks to Google, you can take a location

0:28:47.160 --> 0:28:50.200
<v Speaker 2>and kind of search for information. But it feels like

0:28:50.240 --> 0:28:53.640
<v Speaker 2>it opens up that information can reach a wider swath

0:28:53.720 --> 0:28:57.160
<v Speaker 2>potentially of individuals, some who may not at all be

0:28:57.320 --> 0:29:00.160
<v Speaker 2>connected to a possible crime. So come on in a that.

0:29:01.560 --> 0:29:06.440
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, absolutely so. Tech companies hold a lot of data

0:29:06.480 --> 0:29:11.640
<v Speaker 12>on people. That's no surprise. But usually when you think

0:29:11.680 --> 0:29:16.040
<v Speaker 12>of search warrants in the traditional sense, you would think, Okay,

0:29:16.040 --> 0:29:19.440
<v Speaker 12>police are looking at this one suspect, let's go and

0:29:19.680 --> 0:29:23.600
<v Speaker 12>learn more about them, and maybe we'll serve a search

0:29:23.640 --> 0:29:27.200
<v Speaker 12>warrant to a company to get information on a particular

0:29:27.280 --> 0:29:33.680
<v Speaker 12>individual a suspect. In this case, police are using the

0:29:33.720 --> 0:29:40.480
<v Speaker 12>most basic parameters to even jumpstart sort of leads when

0:29:40.480 --> 0:29:44.360
<v Speaker 12>they don't have any leads. So they'll they'll, for instance,

0:29:45.120 --> 0:29:51.200
<v Speaker 12>give for location coordinates. These are just x y coordinates

0:29:51.200 --> 0:29:54.720
<v Speaker 12>on a map, and then within these four points you'll

0:29:54.840 --> 0:29:58.960
<v Speaker 12>draw like a little polygon. And then they will say

0:29:59.840 --> 0:30:05.280
<v Speaker 12>that to a judge, like, we have reasonable expectations that

0:30:05.520 --> 0:30:09.200
<v Speaker 12>there will be a criminal that we can find within

0:30:09.240 --> 0:30:14.280
<v Speaker 12>this area if you sign off on this warrant for

0:30:14.360 --> 0:30:17.959
<v Speaker 12>a certain period of time. So that's geofen's warrants, and

0:30:18.000 --> 0:30:23.240
<v Speaker 12>then you know police are also increasingly using search warrants,

0:30:23.560 --> 0:30:27.880
<v Speaker 12>keyword search warrants, I should say, which are you know,

0:30:28.000 --> 0:30:32.720
<v Speaker 12>sort of warrants that are served to Google to try

0:30:32.760 --> 0:30:37.440
<v Speaker 12>to surface people who have Googled a certain term. So

0:30:37.520 --> 0:30:40.360
<v Speaker 12>in one of the cases that we covered in our story,

0:30:41.440 --> 0:30:44.800
<v Speaker 12>there was a terrible crime. It was an arson and

0:30:45.640 --> 0:30:51.800
<v Speaker 12>a family died in this fire. And what investigators did

0:30:52.160 --> 0:30:55.320
<v Speaker 12>was go to Google and say, hey, did anyone search

0:30:55.440 --> 0:31:01.120
<v Speaker 12>for this address? So that that yield did some some

0:31:01.160 --> 0:31:02.680
<v Speaker 12>suspects in that case, Well.

0:31:02.600 --> 0:31:05.200
<v Speaker 10>Let's let's stick with that one, because that one hasn't

0:31:05.240 --> 0:31:08.160
<v Speaker 10>totally played out yet and it gets to I think

0:31:08.200 --> 0:31:11.160
<v Speaker 10>maybe the ultimate tension in the story, right.

0:31:12.520 --> 0:31:17.760
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, absolutely that that one. You know, the Colorado Supreme

0:31:17.800 --> 0:31:21.719
<v Speaker 12>Court is going to rule on it. We don't know

0:31:21.760 --> 0:31:24.680
<v Speaker 12>exactly when, but we're expecting it to come down at

0:31:24.680 --> 0:31:30.080
<v Speaker 12>some point this year to just sort of decide whether

0:31:30.240 --> 0:31:36.120
<v Speaker 12>or not Google providing that data to investigators was an

0:31:36.240 --> 0:31:39.920
<v Speaker 12>overreach on the investigator's part. And and if you think

0:31:39.920 --> 0:31:46.520
<v Speaker 12>about especially searching on Google, that is just so many

0:31:46.600 --> 0:31:50.960
<v Speaker 12>people that that could ensnare you know, going back to

0:31:51.000 --> 0:31:55.240
<v Speaker 12>the example that Julia mentioned at the at the very beginning,

0:31:56.480 --> 0:32:00.480
<v Speaker 12>they police had served Google with a warrant for anyone

0:32:00.560 --> 0:32:06.200
<v Speaker 12>searching on this particular car radio model, and Google did

0:32:06.200 --> 0:32:09.000
<v Speaker 12>not turn over data in that case, to be clear,

0:32:09.520 --> 0:32:14.640
<v Speaker 12>But you could imagine people like radio enthusiasts who might

0:32:14.720 --> 0:32:20.000
<v Speaker 12>be searching for a particular radio model completely innocently, who

0:32:20.040 --> 0:32:23.200
<v Speaker 12>could potentially get swept up in one of these wants.

0:32:24.280 --> 0:32:28.960
<v Speaker 10>So I'm guessing privacy experts have something to say about

0:32:29.000 --> 0:32:34.080
<v Speaker 10>this and activists because you know, if Carol Tim and

0:32:34.120 --> 0:32:38.120
<v Speaker 10>I get swept up in the same search, I didn't

0:32:38.120 --> 0:32:41.720
<v Speaker 10>do it. Okay, truly I didn't do it, but I did.

0:32:42.920 --> 0:32:46.040
<v Speaker 10>I'm making fun of something that is incredibly serious. But

0:32:46.280 --> 0:32:49.000
<v Speaker 10>what do the privacy advocates have to say about all

0:32:49.000 --> 0:32:49.120
<v Speaker 10>of this?

0:32:49.920 --> 0:32:50.880
<v Speaker 2>Julie, you want to come back?

0:32:50.960 --> 0:32:55.520
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, sure, yeah, So privacy advocates are very concerned about

0:32:55.720 --> 0:32:58.400
<v Speaker 11>both of these techniques. You know, the thing is, if

0:32:58.400 --> 0:33:02.000
<v Speaker 11>there's no suspect involved, then the only way that goodle

0:33:02.080 --> 0:33:07.480
<v Speaker 11>can provide a list of hits is to search everyone's data.

0:33:07.640 --> 0:33:11.320
<v Speaker 11>And so law enforcement will receive, you know, a short

0:33:11.360 --> 0:33:14.800
<v Speaker 11>list of people who fit the criteria, and they then

0:33:14.960 --> 0:33:18.880
<v Speaker 11>have to go through and identify who they think, you know,

0:33:19.000 --> 0:33:24.160
<v Speaker 11>might be their suspect. But everyday, people who had nothing

0:33:24.240 --> 0:33:27.960
<v Speaker 11>to do with the crime are often swept up by

0:33:28.000 --> 0:33:31.280
<v Speaker 11>these by these warrants, and so I think that's really

0:33:31.400 --> 0:33:36.880
<v Speaker 11>the heart of privacy advocates concerns, and legislation has been

0:33:36.920 --> 0:33:41.160
<v Speaker 11>proposed in California and New York that would ban the

0:33:41.200 --> 0:33:45.760
<v Speaker 11>police from seeking these warrants of Google. The legislation has

0:33:45.800 --> 0:33:50.160
<v Speaker 11>stalled so far, but activists are still hoping to get

0:33:50.200 --> 0:33:53.640
<v Speaker 11>something done on that front. And the Colorado case would

0:33:53.680 --> 0:33:56.280
<v Speaker 11>also be the first time that a court weighs in

0:33:56.800 --> 0:34:00.960
<v Speaker 11>on the on the constitutionality of that keyword search technique.

0:34:01.320 --> 0:34:03.440
<v Speaker 10>Okay, so how does Google feel all about this?

0:34:05.120 --> 0:34:07.840
<v Speaker 11>It puts them in a difficult spot. You know, these

0:34:08.000 --> 0:34:11.960
<v Speaker 11>are court orders, they're they're not optional. Doodle has to

0:34:12.040 --> 0:34:18.560
<v Speaker 11>comply and they often are important cases. However, safegriving user

0:34:18.640 --> 0:34:21.920
<v Speaker 11>privacy is you know, a key responsibility that they have,

0:34:22.040 --> 0:34:25.360
<v Speaker 11>and so they have to walk a very fine line there.

0:34:26.640 --> 0:34:30.960
<v Speaker 10>Okay, so what about insight. There's the official Google response,

0:34:31.040 --> 0:34:33.520
<v Speaker 10>and then there's what you were able to report from

0:34:33.640 --> 0:34:37.680
<v Speaker 10>within the company with some great reporting. What did what

0:34:37.719 --> 0:34:38.920
<v Speaker 10>did some of those sources reveal?

0:34:39.800 --> 0:34:43.359
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, so we found that there there's a department within

0:34:43.480 --> 0:34:47.600
<v Speaker 11>Doodle that's responsible for scrutinizing these requests. It's a midst

0:34:47.719 --> 0:34:52.759
<v Speaker 11>of lawyers and l i S specialists, and those specialists,

0:34:52.760 --> 0:34:55.160
<v Speaker 11>you know, the rank and file there are often just

0:34:55.200 --> 0:34:57.800
<v Speaker 11>a few years out of college. Some of them harbor

0:34:57.920 --> 0:35:01.640
<v Speaker 11>dreams of becoming a lawyer, and I think they're often

0:35:01.760 --> 0:35:05.800
<v Speaker 11>quite motivated by, you know, this job of really scrutinizing

0:35:06.239 --> 0:35:09.920
<v Speaker 11>law enforcement requests. We heard of examples in which they

0:35:09.920 --> 0:35:13.000
<v Speaker 11>were really just looking for any reason to send the

0:35:13.040 --> 0:35:17.160
<v Speaker 11>request back to law enforcement. In one case, you know,

0:35:17.200 --> 0:35:20.919
<v Speaker 11>an officer might send a request for email from an

0:35:21.000 --> 0:35:24.000
<v Speaker 11>account ending in at gmail dot com. But if the

0:35:24.080 --> 0:35:27.880
<v Speaker 11>officer has a typo, if they say at gamble dot com,

0:35:28.160 --> 0:35:32.399
<v Speaker 11>that's a note, they would send that request back. But nonetheless,

0:35:32.800 --> 0:35:34.600
<v Speaker 11>if it's been signed off by a judge, you know,

0:35:34.680 --> 0:35:36.120
<v Speaker 11>eventually they're going to get something.

0:35:36.520 --> 0:35:39.440
<v Speaker 10>And by the way l i S Legal Investigation Support.

0:35:40.040 --> 0:35:43.479
<v Speaker 10>I find this just fascinating because it's like Google's kind

0:35:43.480 --> 0:35:46.600
<v Speaker 10>of their hands are tied here, right, like, yeah, if

0:35:46.680 --> 0:35:49.040
<v Speaker 10>law enforcement asks for something, a judge signs off on it,

0:35:49.080 --> 0:35:51.399
<v Speaker 10>they're gonna have to comply. But I love that there's

0:35:51.480 --> 0:35:55.040
<v Speaker 10>like this element within the company that's like you spilled

0:35:55.120 --> 0:35:57.239
<v Speaker 10>Gmail wrong, You're not going to get to what you're

0:35:57.239 --> 0:35:57.640
<v Speaker 10>asking for.

0:35:57.680 --> 0:35:59.279
<v Speaker 3>I want to spilled Gmail wrong when I'm trying to

0:35:59.280 --> 0:36:01.800
<v Speaker 3>pay a traffic take it so I parking ticket, so

0:36:01.840 --> 0:36:03.600
<v Speaker 3>I had to pay it twice. Oh yeah, because I

0:36:03.640 --> 0:36:05.000
<v Speaker 3>got a late fee for it. So I'm never I

0:36:05.040 --> 0:36:06.200
<v Speaker 3>always check how I spelled to you.

0:36:06.200 --> 0:36:09.400
<v Speaker 2>But the point is, once they give information on a

0:36:09.440 --> 0:36:11.960
<v Speaker 2>case like, how can they pick and choose right, like

0:36:12.000 --> 0:36:14.799
<v Speaker 2>once the door is open like you do? Wonder if

0:36:14.800 --> 0:36:16.840
<v Speaker 2>they're asked and requested, as long as they get the

0:36:16.840 --> 0:36:20.080
<v Speaker 2>Gmail right, you know, do they just have to do it?

0:36:20.200 --> 0:36:20.919
<v Speaker 11>Julia?

0:36:22.640 --> 0:36:23.120
<v Speaker 5>Yes, you know.

0:36:23.120 --> 0:36:26.839
<v Speaker 11>I think there's an old dodge in Silicon Valley. If

0:36:26.880 --> 0:36:29.839
<v Speaker 11>you build it, they will come, they say. Essentially, if

0:36:29.880 --> 0:36:34.080
<v Speaker 11>you collect this data, law enforcement will come knocking and

0:36:35.000 --> 0:36:38.000
<v Speaker 11>they will eventually find a way to get it. And

0:36:38.080 --> 0:36:40.160
<v Speaker 11>so I think that's just the heart of this issue.

0:36:40.520 --> 0:36:44.840
<v Speaker 11>Google collects this data in large part because it helps

0:36:44.880 --> 0:36:49.200
<v Speaker 11>them sell advertising, and as a result they they are

0:36:49.239 --> 0:36:50.440
<v Speaker 11>in this uncomfortable position.

0:36:50.760 --> 0:36:53.720
<v Speaker 3>Davy al will come back in here. I always wonder,

0:36:53.800 --> 0:36:56.040
<v Speaker 3>when you know people work on a story like this

0:36:56.120 --> 0:36:58.600
<v Speaker 3>and learn so much about how our information is collected,

0:36:59.080 --> 0:37:01.160
<v Speaker 3>are you going to change the way you use these

0:37:01.200 --> 0:37:05.400
<v Speaker 3>services after reading a story I want to change the

0:37:05.400 --> 0:37:06.440
<v Speaker 3>way I use these services.

0:37:07.840 --> 0:37:10.480
<v Speaker 12>Well, yeah, I mean I think it's it's a good

0:37:10.520 --> 0:37:13.359
<v Speaker 12>reminder to all of us to take a look at

0:37:13.360 --> 0:37:18.759
<v Speaker 12>our opt out slash opt in options on our settings

0:37:18.840 --> 0:37:22.600
<v Speaker 12>for various Google services. You know. Google told us that

0:37:23.400 --> 0:37:27.600
<v Speaker 12>this one product that they particularly used to store location data,

0:37:27.800 --> 0:37:32.440
<v Speaker 12>called location History, is off by default, but there they

0:37:32.480 --> 0:37:36.919
<v Speaker 12>do send notifications to people to sort of suggest, hey,

0:37:36.960 --> 0:37:39.239
<v Speaker 12>do you want to turn this feature on? It could

0:37:39.239 --> 0:37:42.279
<v Speaker 12>help you in all sorts of ways. For instance, if

0:37:42.320 --> 0:37:44.800
<v Speaker 12>you wanted to remember where you were last week, or

0:37:44.920 --> 0:37:49.000
<v Speaker 12>see how many miles you've traveled, or just kind of

0:37:49.280 --> 0:37:53.480
<v Speaker 12>have a cool record of where you've been and you

0:37:53.480 --> 0:37:57.200
<v Speaker 12>know what places you visited. And I think that that's

0:37:57.200 --> 0:38:01.320
<v Speaker 12>not always clear when you're getting these like features pitched

0:38:01.320 --> 0:38:04.759
<v Speaker 12>to you, that there could be privacy consequences there.

0:38:04.920 --> 0:38:06.240
<v Speaker 10>I just want to end U in a big number.

0:38:06.560 --> 0:38:10.120
<v Speaker 10>Google says it received a record sixty four hundred and

0:38:10.200 --> 0:38:13.200
<v Speaker 10>seventy two search worms in the US last year. That's

0:38:13.280 --> 0:38:15.880
<v Speaker 10>more than double the number from twenty nineteen.

0:38:16.000 --> 0:38:19.600
<v Speaker 2>So this is their use, all right, Julia Love David

0:38:19.719 --> 0:38:22.800
<v Speaker 2>Alban Of course, Joe Weber. This is the cover story.

0:38:22.920 --> 0:38:25.720
<v Speaker 2>Check it out. Lots of details in that story.

0:38:27.880 --> 0:38:29.800
<v Speaker 8>Umbrother mac.

0:38:31.440 --> 0:38:32.120
<v Speaker 9>A Journal.

0:38:33.160 --> 0:38:34.120
<v Speaker 2>How about you let me drive?

0:38:34.400 --> 0:38:36.399
<v Speaker 5>Oh no, no, no, no, who's going to drive?

0:38:37.480 --> 0:38:39.719
<v Speaker 1>Alright please, I'll do the gravel.

0:38:40.280 --> 0:38:41.680
<v Speaker 6>Let's wait, I want to drive.

0:38:43.920 --> 0:38:44.840
<v Speaker 9>It's a question.

0:38:48.640 --> 0:38:51.960
<v Speaker 3>This is the drive to the clothes dot com effect.

0:38:51.960 --> 0:38:53.279
<v Speaker 5>Well, buy around it.

0:38:53.280 --> 0:38:55.040
<v Speaker 1>On Bloomberg Radio.

0:38:55.320 --> 0:38:57.560
<v Speaker 2>All right, everybody, just about thirteen minutes left in today's

0:38:57.560 --> 0:39:01.000
<v Speaker 2>trading session. Kicking around, bouncing around, definitely off our loads

0:39:01.000 --> 0:39:03.760
<v Speaker 2>of this session here, Charlie, just breaking down those numbers

0:39:04.280 --> 0:39:06.160
<v Speaker 2>for you. So much of the week and I for

0:39:06.239 --> 0:39:08.480
<v Speaker 2>the last couple of weeks. Sin since that latest FED meeting,

0:39:08.640 --> 0:39:10.800
<v Speaker 2>we've been obsessed with what's going on in the rates market,

0:39:10.840 --> 0:39:13.080
<v Speaker 2>and you are seeing rates pulled down a little bit.

0:39:13.120 --> 0:39:17.319
<v Speaker 2>We'd talked about consumption spending, personal consumption spending. It is

0:39:17.360 --> 0:39:19.920
<v Speaker 2>down some data points this morning. But and then of

0:39:19.920 --> 0:39:20.440
<v Speaker 2>course we just.

0:39:20.360 --> 0:39:24.480
<v Speaker 3>Heard from Tom Barkin from the Richmond Fed, President of

0:39:24.520 --> 0:39:27.200
<v Speaker 3>the Richmond Fed. Yeah, Carol, what did he say about

0:39:27.200 --> 0:39:27.760
<v Speaker 3>the bond market?

0:39:28.280 --> 0:39:30.560
<v Speaker 2>Slow your role, everybody stopp being so obsessed.

0:39:30.920 --> 0:39:33.239
<v Speaker 3>One takeaway Carol had from that twelve minute interview that

0:39:33.280 --> 0:39:35.520
<v Speaker 3>Mike McKee just did with the president of the Richmond Fed.

0:39:35.560 --> 0:39:37.600
<v Speaker 3>It's trying to spend too much time.

0:39:37.520 --> 0:39:40.000
<v Speaker 2>Because we pars over every little I.

0:39:39.920 --> 0:39:42.680
<v Speaker 3>Mean, the bond market. Well, let's hear what Samir Samana

0:39:42.760 --> 0:39:44.719
<v Speaker 3>has to think about the bond market. Samir Samana's senior

0:39:44.719 --> 0:39:47.719
<v Speaker 3>global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. He's at

0:39:47.800 --> 0:39:51.000
<v Speaker 3>joining us in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Okay, before

0:39:51.000 --> 0:39:52.960
<v Speaker 3>we get to the bond market, you're expecting more weakness

0:39:53.000 --> 0:39:54.560
<v Speaker 3>and equities with the S and P five hundred now

0:39:54.600 --> 0:39:56.920
<v Speaker 3>below it's fifty day and one hundred day moving averages.

0:39:57.600 --> 0:39:59.080
<v Speaker 3>Talk to us a little b about the equity picture

0:39:59.080 --> 0:39:59.719
<v Speaker 3>for the rest of the year.

0:40:00.040 --> 0:40:01.600
<v Speaker 13>Yeah, I mean, look with rates soon what they're doing.

0:40:01.640 --> 0:40:03.160
<v Speaker 13>And sorry to talk about the bond market, and we're

0:40:03.200 --> 0:40:05.480
<v Speaker 13>supposed to say you're done, you're out all about it. Yeah,

0:40:05.520 --> 0:40:08.440
<v Speaker 13>but I mean rates are basically a soft cap on valuations,

0:40:08.520 --> 0:40:11.720
<v Speaker 13>right and you're you know, trading a basically low twenties

0:40:11.760 --> 0:40:13.439
<v Speaker 13>on the S and P right now, at least based

0:40:13.480 --> 0:40:15.799
<v Speaker 13>on our earning's number. And that's just too high with

0:40:16.040 --> 0:40:18.360
<v Speaker 13>rates being as high as they are, so in our opinion,

0:40:18.400 --> 0:40:20.480
<v Speaker 13>you know, probably fair value somewhere in that four thousand,

0:40:20.600 --> 0:40:22.759
<v Speaker 13>forty two hundred area. Now, it could be that we

0:40:22.880 --> 0:40:25.160
<v Speaker 13>end the year at those levels because again we think

0:40:25.160 --> 0:40:27.160
<v Speaker 13>of recession you know, starts to kind of you know,

0:40:27.280 --> 0:40:29.359
<v Speaker 13>unfold at the very tail end of twenty twenty three

0:40:29.400 --> 0:40:32.520
<v Speaker 13>into early twenty twenty four. But we would be pretty

0:40:32.520 --> 0:40:33.919
<v Speaker 13>cautious on equity markets here.

0:40:34.280 --> 0:40:36.839
<v Speaker 2>What's interesting too, though, is I am thinking about you say,

0:40:36.880 --> 0:40:38.799
<v Speaker 2>like a value cap right in terms of the higher

0:40:38.840 --> 0:40:41.080
<v Speaker 2>rate environment when it comes to the equity side of things.

0:40:41.120 --> 0:40:45.319
<v Speaker 2>But if growth comes in right Tom Barkin mentioning, it's

0:40:45.320 --> 0:40:47.520
<v Speaker 2>hard to see inflation coming down because of the growth picture,

0:40:48.000 --> 0:40:51.080
<v Speaker 2>how do you kind of strategize around higher rates but

0:40:51.160 --> 0:40:56.000
<v Speaker 2>maybe a fairly okay growth environment. So what does that

0:40:56.040 --> 0:40:57.680
<v Speaker 2>mean for the value cap or what is the right

0:40:57.760 --> 0:40:58.239
<v Speaker 2>value cap?

0:40:58.280 --> 0:40:58.440
<v Speaker 8>Then?

0:40:58.719 --> 0:41:01.239
<v Speaker 13>Well, that means inflation doesn't down, and that means the

0:41:01.280 --> 0:41:04.439
<v Speaker 13>FED has to revisit rate hikes and or the long

0:41:04.560 --> 0:41:06.319
<v Speaker 13>end has to do the work for the FED because

0:41:06.320 --> 0:41:09.080
<v Speaker 13>they're on pause, which means maybe, you know, five percent

0:41:09.120 --> 0:41:11.120
<v Speaker 13>isn't the right level for long rates. Maybe it's something

0:41:11.120 --> 0:41:11.640
<v Speaker 13>even higher.

0:41:11.680 --> 0:41:13.480
<v Speaker 2>But if we have growth in the economy, even in

0:41:13.520 --> 0:41:16.400
<v Speaker 2>a higher rate environment, like what's the right thinking in

0:41:16.480 --> 0:41:18.359
<v Speaker 2>terms of what equity valuation should be.

0:41:18.600 --> 0:41:21.719
<v Speaker 13>Well, eventually those higher rates will put downward pressure on growth, right.

0:41:21.760 --> 0:41:23.000
<v Speaker 13>I mean when you look at what's going on with

0:41:23.040 --> 0:41:25.239
<v Speaker 13>existing home sales, right, I mean, I think turnover this

0:41:25.320 --> 0:41:27.480
<v Speaker 13>year on existing home sales is like one percent throughout

0:41:27.480 --> 0:41:29.799
<v Speaker 13>the economy, right, And when you think about basically that

0:41:29.880 --> 0:41:31.720
<v Speaker 13>big a part of the economy that's just frozen.

0:41:31.800 --> 0:41:32.040
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:41:32.160 --> 0:41:34.600
<v Speaker 13>People aren't moving for jobs, they're not selling their homes,

0:41:34.640 --> 0:41:37.640
<v Speaker 13>the realtors aren't earning the commissions, you're not redecorating a

0:41:37.640 --> 0:41:38.680
<v Speaker 13>house after buying it.

0:41:39.000 --> 0:41:39.200
<v Speaker 12>You know.

0:41:39.320 --> 0:41:41.239
<v Speaker 13>Again, you're going to see that more and more on

0:41:41.320 --> 0:41:43.840
<v Speaker 13>things like autos and maybe even things like you know,

0:41:43.840 --> 0:41:47.040
<v Speaker 13>your credit card. So we think after the holidays especially,

0:41:47.200 --> 0:41:49.200
<v Speaker 13>people are going to head a pretty pretty strong wall,

0:41:49.320 --> 0:41:51.279
<v Speaker 13>you know, with respect to the consumer. And it's just

0:41:51.360 --> 0:41:53.360
<v Speaker 13>very difficult for the economy to continue going if the

0:41:53.400 --> 0:41:54.399
<v Speaker 13>consumer's setting a wall.

0:41:54.480 --> 0:41:56.600
<v Speaker 2>So the weakness in terms of the consumer side of

0:41:56.800 --> 0:41:59.160
<v Speaker 2>consumer spending picture, which I know some analysts I think

0:41:59.200 --> 0:42:02.120
<v Speaker 2>the Nike down growth and I think right, or the.

0:42:02.040 --> 0:42:04.240
<v Speaker 3>Concerns over Nike about the consumer right.

0:42:04.200 --> 0:42:06.719
<v Speaker 2>Exactly, So some concerns about consumer spinning do you think

0:42:06.760 --> 0:42:08.560
<v Speaker 2>we're going to see that and it's going to be rough?

0:42:08.880 --> 0:42:09.120
<v Speaker 5>We do?

0:42:09.239 --> 0:42:11.319
<v Speaker 13>I mean, look Q two GDP came out this morning,

0:42:11.440 --> 0:42:13.760
<v Speaker 13>right and the part that was revised down by fifty

0:42:13.760 --> 0:42:16.480
<v Speaker 13>percent is personal consumption and that was Q two, So

0:42:16.560 --> 0:42:19.200
<v Speaker 13>that was before oil prices and gas prices did what

0:42:19.200 --> 0:42:20.040
<v Speaker 13>they're doing right now.

0:42:20.560 --> 0:42:24.560
<v Speaker 3>Okay, so it's not sounding that pretty. What are what

0:42:24.560 --> 0:42:25.919
<v Speaker 3>does our investing audience need to know about?

0:42:25.960 --> 0:42:26.960
<v Speaker 2>You use the word recession.

0:42:27.560 --> 0:42:28.680
<v Speaker 13>I did use the word recession.

0:42:28.719 --> 0:42:29.040
<v Speaker 5>I did.

0:42:29.680 --> 0:42:32.160
<v Speaker 13>I mean, look, we would focus on larger cap you know,

0:42:32.600 --> 0:42:35.279
<v Speaker 13>US equities, We've been favorable there for almost as far

0:42:35.320 --> 0:42:37.439
<v Speaker 13>back as I can remember. On the flip side, we'd

0:42:37.480 --> 0:42:40.000
<v Speaker 13>avoid smaller caps in the US, and we would more

0:42:40.120 --> 0:42:41.440
<v Speaker 13>avoid emerging market equities, so.

0:42:41.640 --> 0:42:43.600
<v Speaker 2>Their evaluation play looks a little bit better than larger

0:42:43.600 --> 0:42:44.160
<v Speaker 2>caps right now.

0:42:44.239 --> 0:42:46.320
<v Speaker 13>Yeah, they're cheap for a reason, though, I think I

0:42:46.360 --> 0:42:48.720
<v Speaker 13>think that's the tricky part is those are value traps.

0:42:48.800 --> 0:42:51.359
<v Speaker 13>So now when the cycle turns, you're absolutely right, those

0:42:51.440 --> 0:42:53.440
<v Speaker 13>valuations have a lot of room to expand, but we

0:42:53.440 --> 0:42:55.400
<v Speaker 13>wouldn't mess with those until you get to the recession.

0:42:55.400 --> 0:42:57.080
<v Speaker 3>Do you think there's more downside to the S and

0:42:57.080 --> 0:42:58.040
<v Speaker 3>P five hundred this year.

0:42:58.360 --> 0:43:00.359
<v Speaker 13>We do we would not be surprised to see US

0:43:00.360 --> 0:43:02.680
<v Speaker 13>trade with a three handle during the midst of recession.

0:43:03.360 --> 0:43:04.680
<v Speaker 3>Would the midst of recession.

0:43:04.400 --> 0:43:06.640
<v Speaker 13>Be so we would probably say probably early part of

0:43:06.680 --> 0:43:09.719
<v Speaker 13>next year. Again, it probably starts later this year and

0:43:09.760 --> 0:43:11.840
<v Speaker 13>probably you know, bleeds into twenty twenty four.

0:43:11.719 --> 0:43:11.840
<v Speaker 8>You know.

0:43:11.880 --> 0:43:13.520
<v Speaker 2>I think of Tim this conversation we had with Peter

0:43:13.560 --> 0:43:15.440
<v Speaker 2>at order of William and Mary and Chris runs his

0:43:15.480 --> 0:43:20.200
<v Speaker 2>own financial insights firm. But I do wonder if any

0:43:20.719 --> 0:43:23.480
<v Speaker 2>his concern was are we missing some of the bad stuff?

0:43:23.560 --> 0:43:23.719
<v Speaker 6>Right?

0:43:23.840 --> 0:43:25.440
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, but it hasn't been concerned about that for.

0:43:25.440 --> 0:43:27.440
<v Speaker 2>Months he has been but like it just there's this

0:43:27.480 --> 0:43:29.239
<v Speaker 2>feeling out there, Oh, we're gonna bounce back, because we

0:43:29.239 --> 0:43:31.759
<v Speaker 2>have been only bouncing back thanks to stimulus and so

0:43:31.800 --> 0:43:35.360
<v Speaker 2>on and so forth. But I do wonder if it

0:43:35.400 --> 0:43:39.319
<v Speaker 2>gets bad, and if we do get a recession, is

0:43:39.360 --> 0:43:41.280
<v Speaker 2>it why deep?

0:43:41.760 --> 0:43:42.040
<v Speaker 4>Long?

0:43:42.680 --> 0:43:44.880
<v Speaker 2>So we would say we really know, say.

0:43:44.719 --> 0:43:46.360
<v Speaker 13>Moderate, We would say moderate, and we would say a

0:43:46.360 --> 0:43:48.640
<v Speaker 13>couple of quarters. I think what you have to watch

0:43:48.719 --> 0:43:51.920
<v Speaker 13>for is the Fed's reaction function is how quickly do

0:43:52.000 --> 0:43:55.640
<v Speaker 13>they switch from inflation fighting mode to propping up the

0:43:55.640 --> 0:43:58.279
<v Speaker 13>economy mode and to the extent that the FED is late,

0:43:58.680 --> 0:44:00.920
<v Speaker 13>to the extent that they're folks on inflation, which is

0:44:00.920 --> 0:44:03.960
<v Speaker 13>probably the most lagging indicator of all time. I think

0:44:04.000 --> 0:44:05.200
<v Speaker 13>that's where things could get really.

0:44:05.120 --> 0:44:07.640
<v Speaker 3>Tricky when I mean, I have so many questions here.

0:44:07.760 --> 0:44:10.279
<v Speaker 3>Fortunately we have a few more minutes, Uh, Samir, When

0:44:10.320 --> 0:44:12.560
<v Speaker 3>when would you think the FED would need to start

0:44:12.600 --> 0:44:15.320
<v Speaker 3>cutting rates given where you think that a recession is happening.

0:44:15.840 --> 0:44:17.319
<v Speaker 13>I mean it's probably going to be the middle to

0:44:17.400 --> 0:44:20.960
<v Speaker 13>later part of next year. Yeah, yeah, I mean they're.

0:44:20.760 --> 0:44:22.839
<v Speaker 3>Going to be love you talk about rate cuts this year.

0:44:23.000 --> 0:44:27.120
<v Speaker 13>I know, I think they may compound the inflation is

0:44:27.160 --> 0:44:31.520
<v Speaker 13>transitory mistake with a possibility that disinflation is transitory mistake.

0:44:31.640 --> 0:44:34.359
<v Speaker 3>Right, But if you're saying, if you're saying that it's

0:44:34.400 --> 0:44:37.480
<v Speaker 3>such a lagging indicator, then ostensibly what you think the

0:44:37.480 --> 0:44:40.000
<v Speaker 3>FED needs to do is cut rates earlier than anticipated.

0:44:40.520 --> 0:44:42.359
<v Speaker 13>Well, I mean again, first, I think we have to

0:44:42.520 --> 0:44:44.719
<v Speaker 13>enter the recession, right, I mean it's part of the

0:44:44.760 --> 0:44:47.040
<v Speaker 13>kind of slow year role theme of this interview, right,

0:44:47.080 --> 0:44:49.520
<v Speaker 13>I mean, it can't cut until we actually see the recession.

0:44:49.600 --> 0:44:52.560
<v Speaker 13>You can't see the recession until financial markets comply, right,

0:44:52.600 --> 0:44:54.520
<v Speaker 13>because right now they're all out fighting the FED. Right

0:44:54.560 --> 0:44:56.400
<v Speaker 13>when you look at credit spreads, when you look at

0:44:56.400 --> 0:44:59.000
<v Speaker 13>equity multiples, I mean, the market isn't making the FED

0:44:59.120 --> 0:44:59.960
<v Speaker 13>jobs fairly easy?

0:45:00.080 --> 0:45:03.120
<v Speaker 3>Okay? What happened here? Because six weeks ago, Carol, all

0:45:03.160 --> 0:45:05.560
<v Speaker 3>we were talking about was a soft landing and you had,

0:45:05.719 --> 0:45:08.239
<v Speaker 3>you know, adjustments coming from so many of the major things.

0:45:08.680 --> 0:45:09.640
<v Speaker 2>Everybody picked piles on it.

0:45:09.800 --> 0:45:12.720
<v Speaker 3>Okay, that's what you're like, even you know, a recession

0:45:12.760 --> 0:45:16.400
<v Speaker 3>wasn't a base case for the FED anymore. What happens

0:45:16.440 --> 0:45:17.320
<v Speaker 3>to mar what changed?

0:45:17.560 --> 0:45:17.759
<v Speaker 5>Look?

0:45:17.800 --> 0:45:21.040
<v Speaker 13>Six weeks ago I went through probably the roughest you know,

0:45:21.120 --> 0:45:23.279
<v Speaker 13>stretch that we've had this year. Right with respect to you,

0:45:23.320 --> 0:45:25.719
<v Speaker 13>guys are crazy. This is a new bull market. You've

0:45:25.719 --> 0:45:28.080
<v Speaker 13>missed it. My clients have too much cash. You know,

0:45:28.440 --> 0:45:29.640
<v Speaker 13>great job, thanks a lot.

0:45:29.560 --> 0:45:32.600
<v Speaker 3>So great August, so June July, right when.

0:45:32.440 --> 0:45:34.000
<v Speaker 13>We had forty six hundred for you, we got to

0:45:34.239 --> 0:45:35.839
<v Speaker 13>and you know, we had this four thousand to forty

0:45:35.840 --> 0:45:38.239
<v Speaker 13>two hundred year on target for twenty twenty three, and

0:45:38.239 --> 0:45:41.800
<v Speaker 13>we were basically talking to the clients, to advisors and saying, look,

0:45:42.120 --> 0:45:45.120
<v Speaker 13>this will turn. I mean, this can't keep going.

0:45:45.120 --> 0:45:48.640
<v Speaker 2>Because again, why was the street though constantly playing ketchup

0:45:48.680 --> 0:45:51.120
<v Speaker 2>and ratcheting up their numbers. To me, it's always a

0:45:51.120 --> 0:45:53.120
<v Speaker 2>contrarian indicator when everybody piles on.

0:45:53.280 --> 0:45:55.560
<v Speaker 13>That's exactly how I viewed it as well, and you

0:45:55.600 --> 0:45:57.480
<v Speaker 13>could see that in the flows data. You could see

0:45:57.520 --> 0:45:59.920
<v Speaker 13>that in sediment, and that was the reason why we

0:46:00.080 --> 0:46:02.400
<v Speaker 13>were like in a look, fundamentals matter. You can't just

0:46:02.520 --> 0:46:05.880
<v Speaker 13>base a whole you know, investment philosophy on sentiment, technicals

0:46:05.960 --> 0:46:07.239
<v Speaker 13>and momentum.

0:46:07.280 --> 0:46:08.840
<v Speaker 3>So what's your end of your target for the SMBF.

0:46:08.880 --> 0:46:10.879
<v Speaker 3>I've heard now it's four thousand and forty two hundred

0:46:10.920 --> 0:46:11.439
<v Speaker 3>for this year.

0:46:11.640 --> 0:46:14.040
<v Speaker 13>That being said, it's forty six hundred to forty eight

0:46:14.160 --> 0:46:17.040
<v Speaker 13>hundred for next year. So again, as we get those opportunities,

0:46:17.040 --> 0:46:17.520
<v Speaker 13>what is it for.

0:46:17.520 --> 0:46:19.120
<v Speaker 3>These four thousand to forty two hundred.

0:46:19.640 --> 0:46:21.799
<v Speaker 2>Four thousand to forty two hundred that's for this year

0:46:21.800 --> 0:46:24.719
<v Speaker 2>and then forty six to forty eight for next year exactly,

0:46:24.840 --> 0:46:25.640
<v Speaker 2>So look.

0:46:25.480 --> 0:46:28.360
<v Speaker 13>For opportunities for those brighter days ahead.

0:46:28.400 --> 0:46:30.520
<v Speaker 2>You're a global market strategist, so that to me says

0:46:30.560 --> 0:46:32.200
<v Speaker 2>you can kind of go anywhere and go into a

0:46:32.320 --> 0:46:35.080
<v Speaker 2>lot of different asset classes. What's your number one investment

0:46:35.120 --> 0:46:35.880
<v Speaker 2>idea right now?

0:46:36.200 --> 0:46:39.080
<v Speaker 13>I would say commodities look really interesting to us. We've

0:46:39.080 --> 0:46:41.080
<v Speaker 13>been favorable for a long time. We think we're in

0:46:41.120 --> 0:46:43.279
<v Speaker 13>a bull super cycle for commodities. We think there are

0:46:43.320 --> 0:46:46.520
<v Speaker 13>a great diversifier and what's going to surprisementities or we

0:46:47.120 --> 0:46:49.400
<v Speaker 13>really like a basket because in a bull super cycle,

0:46:49.440 --> 0:46:51.200
<v Speaker 13>what you tend to see is different commodities tend to

0:46:51.200 --> 0:46:53.279
<v Speaker 13>come in and out of favor, and so rather than

0:46:53.360 --> 0:46:56.120
<v Speaker 13>you know, individual clients trying to figure out which commodities

0:46:56.200 --> 0:46:59.160
<v Speaker 13>currently most in favor, just own a broad basket and

0:46:59.239 --> 0:47:01.040
<v Speaker 13>then you know, I know. So it's probably a little

0:47:01.040 --> 0:47:01.440
<v Speaker 13>bit how.

0:47:01.440 --> 0:47:03.200
<v Speaker 2>Much of is it the energy story or it's not

0:47:03.239 --> 0:47:03.560
<v Speaker 2>just that.

0:47:04.120 --> 0:47:05.719
<v Speaker 13>A lot of it's the energy story, but I think

0:47:05.719 --> 0:47:08.239
<v Speaker 13>a lot of it's just supplied discipline. You've just had

0:47:08.280 --> 0:47:11.600
<v Speaker 13>a lot of folks that overinvested in supply during the

0:47:11.640 --> 0:47:14.960
<v Speaker 13>go go China years, and with China having really slowed down,

0:47:15.080 --> 0:47:17.319
<v Speaker 13>a lot of the supplied discipline is going to find

0:47:17.320 --> 0:47:18.480
<v Speaker 13>its way into thse higher commodity.

0:47:18.560 --> 0:47:21.399
<v Speaker 2>We have a great story about ag and supremacy, US

0:47:21.480 --> 0:47:24.200
<v Speaker 2>supremacy in the agricultural world and how that is shifted.

0:47:24.239 --> 0:47:26.520
<v Speaker 2>It's at the end of our broadcast, so highly recommend

0:47:26.560 --> 0:47:27.440
<v Speaker 2>everybody stick around for that.

0:47:27.680 --> 0:47:30.480
<v Speaker 3>Hei Samir, you said avoid small caps and avoid emerging markets,

0:47:30.560 --> 0:47:32.319
<v Speaker 3>right now, what else? What else would you avoid? We

0:47:32.320 --> 0:47:33.560
<v Speaker 3>would we would avoid the consumer.

0:47:33.600 --> 0:47:37.600
<v Speaker 13>We would avoid consumer discretionary so like Nike, like Nike exactly,

0:47:37.640 --> 0:47:40.440
<v Speaker 13>and we would also, you know, avoid real estate. We

0:47:40.480 --> 0:47:42.840
<v Speaker 13>don't like rates. Again, they're hit only you know, not

0:47:42.880 --> 0:47:45.120
<v Speaker 13>only by higher interest rates, but also all these issues

0:47:45.160 --> 0:47:49.600
<v Speaker 13>surrounding probably a economist that's still probably over retailed, overbanked,

0:47:49.600 --> 0:47:52.319
<v Speaker 13>all these physical spaces probably will will kind of be

0:47:52.360 --> 0:47:54.440
<v Speaker 13>reduced over time as we all move online.

0:47:55.040 --> 0:47:56.640
<v Speaker 2>What's like the number one you think about when you

0:47:56.640 --> 0:47:58.000
<v Speaker 2>get up in the morning and you're thinking about the

0:47:58.000 --> 0:47:59.360
<v Speaker 2>market and the environment.

0:47:59.360 --> 0:48:01.399
<v Speaker 13>Right now, it's I mean, if there is one chart

0:48:01.440 --> 0:48:04.239
<v Speaker 13>to watch, it's oil because again it's tripping rates, it's

0:48:04.280 --> 0:48:07.160
<v Speaker 13>firing up the FED with respect to what does this

0:48:07.239 --> 0:48:10.560
<v Speaker 13>mean for inflation? That's the number one chart I'd have

0:48:10.600 --> 0:48:11.399
<v Speaker 13>my eyes on right now.

0:48:11.520 --> 0:48:14.239
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, really interesting. And from the FED speakers, do you

0:48:14.239 --> 0:48:16.480
<v Speaker 2>pay attention? I mean, forgive me, Mike, we love you

0:48:16.520 --> 0:48:17.040
<v Speaker 2>and anybody you.

0:48:17.120 --> 0:48:17.920
<v Speaker 3>Talk to pay attention.

0:48:18.280 --> 0:48:20.600
<v Speaker 2>But is it do you like look for little nuances?

0:48:20.880 --> 0:48:21.080
<v Speaker 12>You know?

0:48:21.200 --> 0:48:23.279
<v Speaker 13>I think the FED kind of gave up some of

0:48:23.280 --> 0:48:25.640
<v Speaker 13>their importance when they said that they're data dependent rights

0:48:25.640 --> 0:48:27.920
<v Speaker 13>the transitive property in math. Right, if the fed's watching

0:48:27.920 --> 0:48:29.400
<v Speaker 13>the data and I can watch the data instead of

0:48:29.440 --> 0:48:33.000
<v Speaker 13>watching the FED, I'll just watch the data and I'll

0:48:33.000 --> 0:48:34.800
<v Speaker 13>go even a step further. I would say the markets

0:48:35.120 --> 0:48:37.520
<v Speaker 13>usually tend to run a step ahead of the data. Yeah,

0:48:37.520 --> 0:48:39.640
<v Speaker 13>And I think that's that's what's telling the story right now,

0:48:39.680 --> 0:48:41.480
<v Speaker 13>is when you look at small's relative to large, when

0:48:41.520 --> 0:48:43.759
<v Speaker 13>you look at what's going on with certain parts of

0:48:43.800 --> 0:48:46.200
<v Speaker 13>the credit markets. I mean that's really where the game's

0:48:46.239 --> 0:48:46.640
<v Speaker 13>being played.

0:48:46.640 --> 0:48:48.520
<v Speaker 2>Well, thank you for playing. Speaking of games, playing along

0:48:48.520 --> 0:48:53.640
<v Speaker 2>with the slow the role kind of game today, so

0:48:53.719 --> 0:48:56.400
<v Speaker 2>appreciate it's some mere Samanas, Senior at Global Market Strategist

0:48:56.400 --> 0:48:58.719
<v Speaker 2>at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, joining us here at our

0:48:58.760 --> 0:49:01.000
<v Speaker 2>Burg Interactive Roper State. I know it's Thursday, but have

0:49:01.040 --> 0:49:01.680
<v Speaker 2>a good weekend.

0:49:02.520 --> 0:49:07.160
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