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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Long ago and far away, there wasn't the Internet, there

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Speaker 2: wasn't Adobe pdf. There was a guy pushing a trolley

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Speaker 2: with paper research and it was literally half a hockey

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Speaker 2: goal high. Buried in that on a given morning was

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Speaker 2: twenty five or thirty pages from a firm called CJ.

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Speaker 3: Lawrence.

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Speaker 2: And my recollection is it was within a green ink.

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Speaker 2: The titling was within a green ink. Yard Denny quick

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Speaker 2: Takes is in the same CJ. Lawrence green and we

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Speaker 2: are on it from the span of those multiple decades

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Speaker 2: at ed Yard, Denny joins us this morning. I can't

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Speaker 2: say enough about your Denny quick Takes. It is the

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Speaker 2: read to give you confidence and push away your fears

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Speaker 2: of the stock market, ed Yard, Denny, what's there to

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Speaker 2: be afraid of right now in the stock market?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think evaluation is bit of an issue. I've

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Speaker 3: been forecasting fifty four hundred for the S and P

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Speaker 3: five hundred by year end. My concern is we might

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Speaker 3: get there by mid year or earlier. I'm forecasting six

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Speaker 3: thousand for next year. I'm concerned we might get there

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Speaker 3: by year end. So I'd like to have a nice

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Speaker 3: leisurely bulling market here, not to something like we had

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Speaker 3: in the late nineteen nineties.

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Speaker 2: A guy at Yale where you got your Parchment, I

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Speaker 2: think his name was Schiller, used to talk a lot

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Speaker 2: about exuberance that was out there. What is the character

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Speaker 2: of our exuberance within the gardenI and Kampora bull market.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think we can look back to the nineteen

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Speaker 3: nineties as a possible model for the environment we're in.

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Speaker 3: If that's the case, then the next question is are

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Speaker 3: we in nineteen ninety nine or are we in something

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Speaker 3: somewhat earlier. I think at this point we're more like

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Speaker 3: nineteen ninety six. Remember December fifth, nineteen ninety six, when

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Speaker 3: Allen Greenspan had that famous speech in which he did

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Speaker 3: a hamlet on us and he said, you know, how

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Speaker 3: do we know if the market's irrationally exuberant? And I

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Speaker 3: think we're at that point now where everybody seems to

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Speaker 3: be asking is it rational exuberance or irrational exuberance?

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Speaker 1: So ed, when you look at the elements within the market,

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Speaker 1: what looks most rational? What looks most irrational?

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Speaker 3: Well, the evaluation multiple on anything related to artificial intelligence

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Speaker 3: certainly is very high. The so called Magnificent seven. There

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Speaker 3: are multiple has been very high, though they're becoming more

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Speaker 3: rational actually because some of the Magnificent seven are so

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Speaker 3: magnificent anymore. We've seen Apple underperform, We've seen Tesla underperformed.

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Speaker 3: So it's a healthy thing to see that the market

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Speaker 3: isn't just Willy Neary going across the board and marking

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Speaker 3: up these mega, these mega stocks, these magnificent seven. I

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Speaker 3: think clearly outside of the stock market, bitcoin has had

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Speaker 3: a heck of a move. I think it's having a

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Speaker 3: heck of a move down this morning, but there's certainly

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Speaker 3: signs of speculative excesses.

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Speaker 2: Edge of Dunny, is it edge of fossil? Like me,

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Speaker 2: do you believe that there's an underlying under bitcoin? Is

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Speaker 2: it an actual tangible investment?

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Speaker 3: Well, this will probably get a lot of people mad

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Speaker 3: at me, but I mean well, and that is I view.

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Speaker 3: I view bitcoin as digital tulips. In other words, it

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Speaker 3: is kind of like what happened in Holland with the

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Speaker 3: bubble in tulips. But there's a huge difference here which

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Speaker 3: really presents the possibility of much higher upside, which we've

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Speaker 3: already seen. And that is the notion that it's a

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Speaker 3: global market and it's open twenty four by seven, and

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Speaker 3: we're talking about tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions

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Speaker 3: of people playing in the bitcoin market place. So I

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Speaker 3: have no idea how high I could go. I have

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Speaker 3: no idea how low it can go. I'm an old

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Speaker 3: fashioned guy like you are. I need I need earnings.

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Speaker 3: I need I need coupons. I need something I can value.

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Speaker 3: I need rent, something I can value, and I don't

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Speaker 3: have that with bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: You know digital toolips that have a structure of a

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Speaker 1: an investment tool underneath them with all those ETFs, right,

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Speaker 1: and also a digital tool, a digital toolup that is

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Speaker 1: going to also have what's the verb happening to have

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Speaker 1: you went.

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Speaker 3: To the f H.

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Speaker 2: Charlotte Greifeld was on yesterday and we're talking polka dot

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Speaker 2: and doge and we're trying I'm trying to have a

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Speaker 2: serious conversation with with miss Haverford about polka dot and doge.

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Speaker 1: This is nuts. This is nuts. Okay, So doctor ed,

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Speaker 1: let me go back to bitcoin, because there are a

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Speaker 1: lot of things, a lot of market structures to support

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Speaker 1: this digital coin right now. When we see that happening

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Speaker 1: in April are you going to do anticipate any kind

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Speaker 1: of correlation with what we see in equities because a

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Speaker 1: lot of that bullish sentiment tied to bitcoin has spilled

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Speaker 1: over into equities or vice versa.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think you're right, and I think where bitcoin's

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Speaker 3: enthusiasm is spilled over, it's clearly into gold. I mean,

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Speaker 3: gold was kind of sitting there doing nothing, and then

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Speaker 3: all of a sudden, maybe some of the bitcoin enthusiasts

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Speaker 3: concluded that they haven't own enough of it and it's

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Speaker 3: too expensive and they want to look for other areas

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Speaker 3: to diversify. So gold has been a winner. The gold

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Speaker 3: mining shows haven't done as well. But look, I have

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Speaker 3: to admit I've got some fomo every now and then.

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Speaker 3: When I see this bitcoin going up to seventy thousands,

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Speaker 3: I knew about a dollar a ten dollars, I knew

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Speaker 3: it about it one hundred at one thousand. Why did

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Speaker 3: I just buy a couple?

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Speaker 2: You have a huge response on YouTube this morning worldwide.

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Speaker 2: People are listening to Edward Jordanny. I want to go

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Speaker 2: to the X axis to theata, whether it's just a

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Speaker 2: normal xax or dare I say we go lock rhythmic?

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Speaker 2: You've had the courage to go out to SPX six thousand,

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Speaker 2: and I think you've put a twenty five handle on it.

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Speaker 2: Why can't add your Denny model out to twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 3: Oh, actually I have already. I'm glad you asked me,

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Speaker 3: because just recently we were talking about sixty five hundred

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Speaker 3: in terms of earnings, the underlying earnings last year we

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Speaker 3: said two twenty five, and there are a lot of

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Speaker 3: people who are using one to eighty for earnings per

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Speaker 3: share for the S and P five hundred, and we

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Speaker 3: came awfully close. Two hundred and twenty two dollars is

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Speaker 3: what the S and P five hundred earned last year.

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Speaker 3: This year we also had bullish outlook for earnings two

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Speaker 3: fifty and then the year after that, In other words,

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Speaker 3: two two thousand and twenty five, we're talking about two

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Speaker 3: seventy and then three hundred dollars a share for two

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Speaker 3: twenty six, and we think that well accommodate sixty five

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Speaker 3: hundred on the S and P five hundred by twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty six.

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Speaker 2: Ed As, thank you for this kind of well, you know,

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Speaker 2: I'm trying, Edyard Denny, thank you so much for this

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Speaker 2: conversation folks. You know, I mean I like all our guests,

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Speaker 2: so they wouldn't come on. I mean I don't like Scarlett,

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Speaker 2: but that's a different story. But the answer is Yard

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Speaker 2: Denny Quick takes. Just look at it. It is spectacular, brief, Kurt.

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Speaker 2: It throws you back to the time of Edward Hyman

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Speaker 2: and ed Yard Denny. It's c J. Lawrence ed thank you.

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Speaker 3: So let me just.

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Speaker 1: Read one thing from his quick takes which gets your attention.

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Speaker 1: The vertical momentum rally that started on October twenty seven

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Speaker 1: to twenty twenty three seems to be losing some of

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Speaker 1: its momentum. Maybe I want to read that.

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Speaker 2: That's how he hedges it. And this is you know, Frankly,

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Speaker 2: this is Yell economics, this is James Tobin. And to

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Speaker 2: have always within your head is you're analyzing some real humility.

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Speaker 2: There's not a lot of certitude there. There's humility about

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Speaker 2: the unknown. And that's what you get from doctor address.

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Speaker 2: See how he came out to twenty twenty six. And

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Speaker 2: I believe we can quote worldwide rich sixty five hundred

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Speaker 2: from Yard Denny. Did I hear that modeled out?

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Speaker 1: I don't think he's committed it to writing yet.

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Speaker 2: Oh listen, come on, play with me here. I gotta

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Speaker 2: make some news so I can come back Monday.