WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend: Jobs, Fed, AI, Europe 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:04.960 This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the 0:00:04.960 --> 0:00:07.160 top stories in the coming week from our day Break 0:00:07.160 --> 0:00:09.680 anchors all around the world, and straight ahead on the program, 0:00:09.800 --> 0:00:12.000 the job market and what it means. 0:00:11.800 --> 0:00:14.360 For all of us. I'm Top Busby in New York. 0:00:14.480 --> 0:00:16.520 I'm Stephen Carolyn London, where we're looking ahead to a 0:00:16.600 --> 0:00:19.120 meeting of some of Europe's top economists and business people 0:00:19.160 --> 0:00:22.200 in France at a time when yours own growth is stuttering. 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:26.880 I'm Doug Prisner the challenges of developing artificial intelligence in China. 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:29.760 I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Next week we get a 0:00:29.760 --> 0:00:31.840 fly on the wall view of the last FED meeting. 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:34.160 Coming up, we'll look ahead to the release of FED minutes. 0:00:35.440 --> 0:00:39.440 That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 0:00:39.479 --> 0:00:43.280 Eleve Them three own New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:47.600 Bloomberg one O six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, 0:00:47.880 --> 0:00:52.080 DAB Digital Radio, London, Sirius XM one nineteen and around 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:54.760 the world on Bloomberg Radio dot com and via the 0:00:54.840 --> 0:00:56.040 Bloomberg Business app. 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:00.160 You. 0:01:00.200 --> 0:01:02.480 I'm Tom Busby, and we begin today's program with the 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:06.440 June jobs report coming out this coming Friday. Joining me 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:08.880 to talk about what's expected and what it all means. 0:01:08.959 --> 0:01:12.880 Bloomberg's Global Economics and Policy editor Michael McKee. Now, before 0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:15.959 we talk about June, let's start by looking back at 0:01:16.120 --> 0:01:19.440 May's data. There was three hundred and thirty nine thousand 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:22.360 jobs added, way more than forecast, a sign of a 0:01:22.400 --> 0:01:26.800 pretty healthy labor market. Gains some professional business services, government, healthcare, 0:01:27.280 --> 0:01:29.639 and very important to the Fed, we saw wage growth 0:01:29.640 --> 0:01:32.559 slow the same time inflation started to pull back. 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:37.119 It was a confusing report because the establishment survey, the 0:01:37.200 --> 0:01:39.880 three hundred and thirty nine thousand, was so strong, but 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:43.360 on the household side, we lost jobs. The household survey 0:01:43.440 --> 0:01:46.280 produces the unemployment rate, and it jumped from three point 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:48.920 four percent to three point seven percent. So the Fed's 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:51.560 going to really be watching this coming month to see 0:01:51.920 --> 0:01:56.160 if that same dynamic plays out. Right now, the forecast 0:01:56.200 --> 0:02:00.360 for unemployment is unchanged at three point seven percent, but 0:02:00.840 --> 0:02:04.000 we'll have to see when we get to next Friday 0:02:04.640 --> 0:02:07.280 what the final number is and how it compares with 0:02:07.400 --> 0:02:08.400 job creation. 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:10.960 And what kind of raw number were you looking at 0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:11.760 in ads. 0:02:12.200 --> 0:02:14.680 Well, here's the funny part. We've had a lot of 0:02:14.760 --> 0:02:18.640 strong economic data over the last week, and people have 0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:21.239 been talking about how the economy is in better shape 0:02:21.240 --> 0:02:23.880 than thought, but you kind of have been marking down 0:02:24.160 --> 0:02:28.519 their forecast for job growth. We're at one ninety five now. 0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:32.760 Earlier in the last week we were at about two twenty. 0:02:33.160 --> 0:02:36.440 So I'm not sure why the pessimism, but people are 0:02:36.480 --> 0:02:40.240 thinking that maybe the trend is finally breaking and then 0:02:40.280 --> 0:02:45.200 we will get lower job creation, although that's still very strong, 0:02:45.760 --> 0:02:49.839 lower job creation and slightly higher unemployment, even if we're 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:53.320 seeing strength in other areas of the economy. 0:02:53.760 --> 0:02:56.680 But that's something right in the fed's playbook, right, that's 0:02:56.720 --> 0:02:57.600 what they're hoping to see. 0:02:57.639 --> 0:02:58.639 That's what they're hoping to see. 0:02:58.680 --> 0:03:00.760 The Fed's been hoping that we would a slow down 0:03:00.800 --> 0:03:05.360 in consumer spending, a slowdown in therefore business investment, and 0:03:05.440 --> 0:03:09.840 then a slow down in hiring, and the fewer people 0:03:09.840 --> 0:03:12.760 that get jobs, that's less money that goes into spending 0:03:12.760 --> 0:03:18.080 in the overall economy, cools. It's the standard playbook for 0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:20.240 central banks and it just hadn't worked yet. 0:03:21.280 --> 0:03:21.560 Well. 0:03:22.080 --> 0:03:24.799 Speaking of the FED, just this past week we saw 0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:28.000 Chairman Powell was in Madrid at an ECB event, and 0:03:28.400 --> 0:03:31.120 he said some things that really rattled investors. 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:34.519 A strong majority of committee participants expect that it will 0:03:34.520 --> 0:03:37.760 be appropriate to raise interest rates two or more times 0:03:37.840 --> 0:03:40.600 by the end of this year. Inflation pressures continue to 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:43.600 run high, in the process of getting inflation back down 0:03:43.640 --> 0:03:45.800 to two percent has a long way to go. 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:47.320 That is a mouthful. 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:51.480 Well, the FED had forecast at their last meeting that 0:03:51.760 --> 0:03:55.080 we would see the possibility of two more rate increases, 0:03:55.120 --> 0:03:58.360 and he seems to be underlining that the market had 0:03:58.400 --> 0:04:02.080 only priced in one, so he seems to be interested 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:05.760 in pushing them to add to that. And we did 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:09.760 see the swaps market react and at least start to 0:04:09.840 --> 0:04:12.880 price in the idea of two. But remember the FED 0:04:12.920 --> 0:04:16.400 has been saying all along it's very data dependent, and 0:04:16.720 --> 0:04:20.000 we haven't got a lot of employment or inflation data yet. 0:04:20.040 --> 0:04:23.120 We will be getting that, and so for the FED, 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:27.760 it's a question of do they really have to carry 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:31.160 through with two rate increases or will the data give 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:35.080 them an out maybe only do one. And the market 0:04:35.120 --> 0:04:36.400 is kind of thinking the same way. 0:04:36.680 --> 0:04:40.000 And we've still got four weeks before the next meeting 0:04:40.040 --> 0:04:42.320 that they have, and then six weeks after that. 0:04:42.400 --> 0:04:43.120 Right in September. 0:04:43.240 --> 0:04:47.560 Yes, so we will see one more CPI report before 0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:50.479 the FED meeting, and of course next Friday is the 0:04:50.680 --> 0:04:53.360 Jobs report, and those will give us a pretty good 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:56.279 idea of where we are at the moment. The question 0:04:56.440 --> 0:04:59.200 is what's the long run view, And since we only 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:01.479 get one report, it's going to be harder for the 0:05:01.520 --> 0:05:06.080 Fed to make a forecast that works for the month 0:05:06.120 --> 0:05:08.440 of August, taking the month of August off and then 0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:12.880 not until September. Having another meeting, we will have j 0:05:13.000 --> 0:05:15.760 Powell and Jackson Hall, so if he has something to say, 0:05:15.800 --> 0:05:18.960 we'll hear it. But the Fed itself won't be voting again. 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:22.200 So you're right, it's going to be an interesting vacuum 0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:23.359 for the market to fill. 0:05:23.960 --> 0:05:26.640 But so far, what the Fed has done took a while, 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:29.320 but it appears to be bearing fruit. 0:05:29.960 --> 0:05:34.160 Well, they have brought down the inflation rate and it's 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:38.120 about halved, but it's considered the low hanging fruit. I mean, 0:05:38.160 --> 0:05:42.000 we saw energy prices in particular falloff, and gasoline prices. 0:05:42.279 --> 0:05:45.159 Now the question is is they're embedded inflation in the 0:05:45.160 --> 0:05:48.880 core rate of inflation. That's going to be hard to eradicate. 0:05:48.880 --> 0:05:52.120 Our companies raising prices because they still have to pay 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:55.680 more for their inputs. Are they raising prices because they can? 0:05:55.880 --> 0:05:59.240 People are used to it? Is labor still an issue 0:05:59.279 --> 0:06:02.240 in terms of having to make up the cost of 0:06:02.279 --> 0:06:07.040 additional wages for people. So we're not out of the woods. 0:06:07.040 --> 0:06:08.760 And the FED thinks that it's going to be much 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:11.640 harder to get that last two percent wrung out of 0:06:11.680 --> 0:06:14.160 inflation than the first six percent. 0:06:14.839 --> 0:06:17.800 Yeah, and Chairman Pal said, it's not this year, it's 0:06:17.800 --> 0:06:19.479 not next year. It looks like it's going to be 0:06:19.480 --> 0:06:20.760 twenty twenty five hopefully. 0:06:21.160 --> 0:06:24.560 Yeah, that's a they're being conservative because they have been 0:06:24.560 --> 0:06:28.280 fooled and it's been much stickier than they thought. The 0:06:28.320 --> 0:06:32.039 Fed is thinking twenty twenty five, we are going to 0:06:32.080 --> 0:06:37.200 see inflation come down because the whole rent question, we've 0:06:37.200 --> 0:06:39.159 talked about a lot that it takes a long time 0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:42.600 for housing costs to get into and out of the 0:06:42.640 --> 0:06:47.160 inflation data. They're going to that's finally going to hit 0:06:47.240 --> 0:06:49.719 and we're going to see some drops in inflation. But 0:06:49.800 --> 0:06:52.560 then does that continue And that's something they don't know 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:55.760 because we've started to see some home price and rent 0:06:56.480 --> 0:06:59.600 increases and now may take another six months or a 0:06:59.680 --> 0:07:02.080 year to go into the data, but it's going to 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:04.560 be out there and it'll keep them farther away from 0:07:04.560 --> 0:07:06.400 two percent if that indeed happens. 0:07:06.640 --> 0:07:08.960 Well, Mike, I want to shift gears a little bit 0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:12.680 here and talk about the kinds of jobs that are 0:07:12.720 --> 0:07:16.280 going away, the kind of jobs that are we're seeing 0:07:16.320 --> 0:07:20.040 gains in the last couple of months, we've seen, or 0:07:20.160 --> 0:07:23.040 so far this year, hundreds of thousands of tech jobs 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:25.320 that have been some of the big techies. Now we 0:07:25.360 --> 0:07:28.200 all know that they overhire during the pandemic when things 0:07:29.040 --> 0:07:31.560 nobody knew which way we're going to go. But as 0:07:31.600 --> 0:07:34.440 you have said before, every company is a tech company, 0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:36.680 so a lot of those people are finding work, you know, 0:07:36.720 --> 0:07:39.360 with AI. It looks like things are shifting that in 0:07:39.360 --> 0:07:41.160 that marketplace for those jobs. 0:07:41.160 --> 0:07:41.800 Tech jobs. 0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:44.520 Yeah, I'm not smart enough to know how easily you 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:47.320 can transition to an AI job from another kind of 0:07:47.400 --> 0:07:49.440 tech job. And of course when we talk about tech, 0:07:49.720 --> 0:07:52.920 it's a very large category, everything from hardware to software 0:07:52.920 --> 0:07:57.080 and all different kinds of software. But it does look 0:07:57.120 --> 0:08:01.720 like that category has stabilized because people can find more jobs. 0:08:02.760 --> 0:08:08.040 The thing that was slow was temporary hiring because usually 0:08:08.080 --> 0:08:12.280 when you're seeing an economic ramp up. Companies add people 0:08:12.320 --> 0:08:15.920 on a temporary basis because they're worried about whether or 0:08:15.960 --> 0:08:19.520 not they'll have the businesses to sustain hiring them, and 0:08:19.560 --> 0:08:21.960 that turned around last month we saw some gains in 0:08:22.120 --> 0:08:27.080 temporary hiring. Healthcare has always been a last couple of years, 0:08:27.160 --> 0:08:30.600 has been a very strong category, and that saw gains. 0:08:30.640 --> 0:08:34.280 As we get older, we need more healthcare, and so 0:08:35.760 --> 0:08:38.640 we're looking to see where the weakness is going to come. 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:42.720 It has been in manufacturing. Manufacturing was losing jobs for 0:08:42.720 --> 0:08:44.760 a bit, but now it seems to have added not 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:48.000 at a huge pace, but we're starting to see more 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:52.600 production and more hiring there. And construction. I know you've 0:08:52.640 --> 0:08:56.400 been following this. Construction jobs have really surprised. So it's 0:08:56.440 --> 0:08:59.520 the housing market. But builders have been putting up houses 0:08:59.559 --> 0:09:04.400 as fast as they can and they need construction workers. 0:09:04.920 --> 0:09:09.000 And now we're seeing the impact of some of the 0:09:09.080 --> 0:09:11.959 measures Congress passed in the last year, the Chips Act 0:09:12.240 --> 0:09:17.360 and the Inflation Reduction Act that incentivize constructing, especially for 0:09:17.400 --> 0:09:21.640 green energy new facilities, and we're seeing a huge amount 0:09:21.720 --> 0:09:26.560 of construction spending on business facilities, which means they need 0:09:26.600 --> 0:09:30.600 more people as well. So construction, which is normally very 0:09:31.679 --> 0:09:38.680 affected by interest rates is not confounded and that's another surprise. 0:09:38.840 --> 0:09:43.800 So none of this is working out as the previous 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:45.280 models would have suggested. 0:09:46.440 --> 0:09:49.480 Another thing you talked about manufacturing, and this is timely 0:09:49.520 --> 0:09:53.080 because the UAW this month in July is talking to 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:56.360 all of Detroit's Big three about a new contract. And 0:09:56.720 --> 0:09:59.360 boy has that industry changed over the last three or 0:09:59.360 --> 0:10:04.200 four years dramatically Because they know the UAW. Electric cars 0:10:04.320 --> 0:10:07.320 do not have the components that gas engine cars have 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:10.480 and therefore do not need the same amount of workers 0:10:10.520 --> 0:10:13.439 putting it together to assemble those cars. So they've got 0:10:13.440 --> 0:10:14.720 their work cut out from the UAW. 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:17.800 It is going to be a very interesting negotiation. Labor 0:10:18.040 --> 0:10:21.600 relations in the auto industry have gotten better, so hopefully 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:26.120 they will be able to avoid strike. And many years 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:28.920 ago now doesn't seem like it to us old guys, 0:10:29.120 --> 0:10:32.160 but they went to two tier wages with younger people 0:10:32.200 --> 0:10:35.720 coming in at lower wage levels, and so that has 0:10:35.760 --> 0:10:38.880 helped the automakers a lot. Now, how they handle a 0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:43.280 technological change rather than an age change is going to 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:47.240 be very interesting. And what kinds of people do you need? 0:10:47.280 --> 0:10:49.080 What kinds of jobs are you going. 0:10:49.040 --> 0:10:49.679 To have to fill? 0:10:49.760 --> 0:10:51.679 Well, Michael, thank you so much for being here. That 0:10:51.800 --> 0:10:54.920 was Michael McKee, our Global Economics and Policy editor, and 0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:55.840 coming up on. 0:10:55.720 --> 0:10:57.120 Bloomberg Daybreak weekend. 0:10:57.240 --> 0:11:00.800 How about a trip to France the Summer Economic Conference 0:11:00.960 --> 0:11:04.200 coming to ex Au Provence. I'm Tom Busby and this 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:17.000 is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break weekend, our global 0:11:17.000 --> 0:11:19.400 look ahead at the top stories for investors in. 0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:21.800 The coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. 0:11:22.240 --> 0:11:26.160 Up later in our program big global gathering on artificial intelligence. 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:28.680 It's in the works for next week, but first, After 0:11:28.720 --> 0:11:32.679 scraping through a difficult winter, Europe's major economies are stagnating 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:35.600 as the impact of higher interest rates now kicking in. 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:38.760 It's an interesting time for some of the continent's stop economists, 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:41.840 policymakers and business people to be gathering in the south 0:11:41.840 --> 0:11:45.200 of France for the annual Economic Conference in the city 0:11:45.200 --> 0:11:46.240 of ex A, Provence. 0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:48.280 For more, let's head to London. 0:11:48.040 --> 0:11:51.600 And bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe banker Stephen Carroll Tom. 0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:54.840 It's a staple of the European economists calendar. This conference 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:57.520 organized by the French group Sec de seconist or the 0:11:57.559 --> 0:12:00.240 Circle of Economists. The theme this year is Renewing Hope 0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:04.680 and features politicians, CEOs and some ECP policymakers joining the 0:12:04.720 --> 0:12:07.680 discussions as well. Bloomberg's Power supporter Carolyn Connan will be 0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:10.400 there and she joins us now for more on this Carolyn, 0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:13.680 many of our listeners may not be familiar with excellent Provence. 0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:15.720 Can you tell us a bit about first of all, 0:12:15.880 --> 0:12:17.640 where this event is taking place. 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:19.800 Even I think you have to close your eyes and 0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:23.720 imagine the village atmosphere of Provence. So it's in southeast 0:12:23.720 --> 0:12:26.600 of France, less than one hour north of Marseille. You 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:29.560 can hear the sound of the cicadas because it's the 0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:33.200 beginning of summer, and you have some concerts, some opera 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:36.480 at night. That's where the conference is taking place. Probably 0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:39.120 one of my favorite events of the year, even though 0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:42.280 sometimes the weather might get very hard to occasionally close 0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:47.600 to the forty degrees celsius. So most important, most importantly, 0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:49.920 I would say it's one of the best events to 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:54.000 mingle with French executives and ministers because they are relaxed, 0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:57.800 they're very open to conversations and sometimes they actually share 0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:01.679 some news with you. Really enjoyed the conference because it's 0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:05.000 also the same weekend as the Opera Festival in Excellent Province, 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:08.360 and it comes at a quiet period before the first 0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:11.960 half earning season, so not too much pressure. It's kind 0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:15.080 of like DeVos in France. That's why we call it 0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:16.920 here the French divors. 0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:19.360 Ah, well, you're making us all very jealous the prospect 0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:22.560 of that setting. Anyway, for the organization, talk to us 0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:24.760 about the key topics they're going to be up for discussion. 0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:27.960 As you mentioned this year, the mental topic is renewing hope, 0:13:28.000 --> 0:13:32.959 which couldn't be of course more appropriate given the geopolitical uncertainties, 0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:36.960 the war in Ukraine, the rebellion of Wagner and Russia, 0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:40.719 and the concerns also on the economic front about a 0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:44.920 credit crunch and the danger of possible recession. So we'll 0:13:44.960 --> 0:13:47.760 get some general comments about all that, but the outlook 0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:50.600 for the economy, but also some of the other issues 0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:55.200 supply chain innovation, labor shortages for example. But X, as 0:13:55.200 --> 0:13:59.480 you know, also lacks expanding the topics for discussions. So 0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:03.079 for example, well the ECB president Kittin Lagard is doing 0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:07.240 a panel about gender equality. You've also got the former 0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:10.720 prime minister and presidential hopeful Edward Philip who will talk 0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:15.000 about choices for the future of society. So there will 0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:19.400 be also a lot of discussions about ecological awareness, healthcare, work, 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:21.920 life balance. There is a one panel for example, which 0:14:22.000 --> 0:14:26.440 is called working to live or living to work. That's 0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:31.200 a interesting choice, and of course education. The younger generations 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:34.360 will also be discussing. On the other side of the spectrum, 0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:37.440 the retirement because we're just a few months after President 0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:40.680 Macon pass is very controversial pension reform. 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:43.479 Yeah, I mean, look, it's a fascinating set of discussions. 0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:45.320 I do think it's very interesting, as you say that 0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:47.960 when we have this summer setting and the idea that 0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:49.680 you know, people are perhaps a little bit more relaxed, 0:14:49.680 --> 0:14:52.560 they'll take time to dig into the broader economic issues 0:14:53.000 --> 0:14:54.920 that perhaps you don't get to during the rest of 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:57.000 the year. But having said that, we have got a 0:14:57.000 --> 0:14:59.280 couple of ECB names are going to be attending as 0:14:59.280 --> 0:15:01.520 well will be expecting to hear from them. 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:05.120 There are no less than five central bankers attending, including 0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:07.960 four from the ECB President La Gard, also the French 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:11.720 Villa Gualo, the Portuguese and the Spanish, and also separately 0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:13.960 you got the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who's 0:15:14.000 --> 0:15:16.200 going to be there on a Sunday. So very interesting 0:15:16.200 --> 0:15:19.040 and it's not usually a place where Christine Lagarde breaks 0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:21.520 a lot of news, but some of the others they 0:15:21.640 --> 0:15:24.240 like talking. They like to be a bit more open 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:26.880 minded to talking on the sideline. So we'll check if 0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:30.720 they give any signals regarding the next ECB meeting in 0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:36.680 July and also of course the highly expected September meeting. 0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:40.120 What will be the policy after these sellin next meetings? 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:42.480 How many more rate hikes are we going to see? 0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:45.440 That will be some of the key questions. And who knows, 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:48.720 if you're lucky, I might actually have an exclusive sit 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:50.800 down with one of those central bankers. And my good 0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:52.440 feeling this will actually happen. 0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:56.080 Oh, we're all wishing for that as well, Carolyne. Let's 0:15:56.120 --> 0:15:58.800 set ourselves up for that ECB conversation, though, and bring 0:15:58.800 --> 0:16:00.560 you some of the interview that we had with the 0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:03.200 ECB Vice president least again to us. In recent days 0:16:03.200 --> 0:16:05.800 he's been speaking to Bloomberg at the ECB forum in 0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:09.600 CenTra and Portugal and told our editor at large, Francine Laqua, 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:12.080 that the September rate hike decision was open. 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:16.120 We are not done. There is more ground to recovered, 0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:18.680 and you know, the key factory is going to be 0:16:18.720 --> 0:16:21.280 the blution of inflation. And so what we want to 0:16:21.360 --> 0:16:25.720 indicate is very clearly our determination to reduce inflation and 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:28.960 to bring inflation down or definition of press ability. 0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:32.720 So what happens for future interest rate hikes? I know 0:16:32.840 --> 0:16:36.280 your data dependence. I know September is a question mark. 0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:38.920 But given the data points we have, now, are you 0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:41.160 just going to power ahead and hike Well. 0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:44.760 I think that July is afeta complete. It has been indicated, 0:16:44.800 --> 0:16:47.960 and you know, it's quite clear September. September will depend. 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:50.640 You know, you know, what are the factors that are 0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:53.960 going to determine what happens in September will be our 0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:56.280 bank lending survey that I think that is very important 0:16:56.320 --> 0:16:58.880 because it's going to be an indication of how our 0:16:58.920 --> 0:17:02.320 monetary policies trust to the financial system and from the 0:17:02.320 --> 0:17:05.040 financial system to the rest of the economy. How you know, 0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:09.000 the title in the financing conditions fed through to the 0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:11.879 real economy. The second will be you know, our predictions 0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:14.600 in September we will have a new round projections. And finally, 0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:18.200 the lusion of core inflation underline inflation. That I think 0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:21.159 that is you know, very relevant in the person's scumstances. 0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:23.000 So these are the three elements that we will take 0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:26.359 into consideration. But well, I said that in July it 0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:29.480 was afterta complete or it is after the complete in September. 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:31.040 I think that is open. 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:33.320 Do you believe, Vice President, this is a matter of 0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:35.719 credibility for the Central Bank to get to two percent 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:37.120 no matter what happens. 0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:39.240 Well, I think that is very important. It's our mandate. 0:17:39.400 --> 0:17:42.000 You know, it's not only well, credibility is very relevant, 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:44.080 but as well you know, we have a definition of 0:17:44.080 --> 0:17:48.399 pressability and our mandate is to to to rich and 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:51.200 to guarantee that presstability is so for us is key. 0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:53.960 That's the ECP's vice president least to gain us Speaking 0:17:54.119 --> 0:17:57.280 to Bloomberg last week, Carolyne Connor, what are the other 0:17:57.359 --> 0:17:58.879 names that you'll be watching out for an ax On 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:00.640 province aside from the center bankers. 0:18:00.840 --> 0:18:02.600 So in between you're going to have a multitude of 0:18:02.640 --> 0:18:07.840 French executives including carfour, Sanofi, LG mh Elberts, Total NGI 0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:11.439 and also all the banks BNP sociitation in Hall. And 0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:13.520 then you've got a lot of member of the French government, 0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:17.880 including the Finance minister Brinolomer, the European Minister Lawrences Boon, 0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:20.639 that we're going to talk to on Friday, and I 0:18:20.720 --> 0:18:23.240 was mentioning earlier the presidential hopefully war Philip. That will 0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:24.800 be also interesting to see him there. 0:18:24.840 --> 0:18:27.520 I'm gonna bringing those entews on Bloomberg Radio and television 0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:29.320 as well. Lawrence Spoon always a very interesting name to 0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:31.199 lest Night for of course she's former chief economist at 0:18:31.200 --> 0:18:34.240 the OECD as well, so somebody well known to the 0:18:34.280 --> 0:18:37.239 listeners and viewers at Bloomberg. Talk to us a bit 0:18:37.240 --> 0:18:40.560 about the economic context for this event, Caroline, because it's 0:18:40.600 --> 0:18:43.000 happening at a time in France where the recent economic 0:18:43.080 --> 0:18:44.760 data has been quite mixed. 0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:48.160 Yeah, well, you've got the economy context and the political context. 0:18:48.160 --> 0:18:52.880 Of course, inflation in France remains above five percent, so 0:18:53.080 --> 0:18:55.040 it's actually slightly lower than the average in the US 0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:59.159 on which is closer to six percent. But clearly the 0:18:59.160 --> 0:19:03.400 French growth is expected to remain subdued about plus zero 0:19:03.400 --> 0:19:05.680 point six percent this year after two point five percent 0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:08.760 last year, so that would be below the one percent 0:19:08.800 --> 0:19:12.560 growth target that Macron's government was counting on to cut 0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:15.639 the budget deficit, and that will be another key discussion 0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:18.800 in x is whether Emaniel Macon will be able to 0:19:18.840 --> 0:19:22.600 pass more reforms after the very controversial pension reform, whether 0:19:22.680 --> 0:19:26.680 he'll be able to cut this budget deficit and a 0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:30.080 very high French debt. We've also seen business and consumer 0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:34.320 confidence also deterior rating because of high rates, of course, 0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:37.879 but also because of high food inflation. And in spring, 0:19:37.920 --> 0:19:41.440 remember you had even a Feitch cutting Frances credit rating. 0:19:41.560 --> 0:19:44.520 So very interesting economic discussions ahead. 0:19:44.240 --> 0:19:46.359 Plenty to watch out for them. Thank you to Bloomberg's 0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:48.880 Carolyn Connor in Paris, and we will bring you coverage 0:19:48.880 --> 0:19:52.879 of the excellent Province Economic conference on Bloomberg Radio and 0:19:52.960 --> 0:19:55.840 television as well. I'm Stephen Carroll in London. You can 0:19:55.880 --> 0:19:58.439 catch us every weekday morning here for Bloomberg Daybreak here 0:19:58.520 --> 0:20:01.160 but getting at six am in London and one am 0:20:01.240 --> 0:20:02.080 on Wall Streets. 0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:05.520 Tom bel c Stephen and coming up on Bloomberg day 0:20:05.520 --> 0:20:10.480 Break weekend, here comes the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai. 0:20:11.280 --> 0:20:12.880 I'm Tom Busby and this is. 0:20:12.800 --> 0:20:27.200 Bloomberg broadcasting live from the Bloomberg it a Active Brokers 0:20:27.240 --> 0:20:30.640 studio in New York. Bloomberg Elemon three oh to Washington, 0:20:30.720 --> 0:20:34.040 d C, Bloomberg ninety nine one to Boston, Bloomberg one 0:20:34.080 --> 0:20:37.320 oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixteen to 0:20:37.400 --> 0:20:41.160 the country, Syrius XM Channel one nineteen to London DAB 0:20:41.440 --> 0:20:44.760 Digital Radio, and around the globe the Bloomberg Business app 0:20:44.840 --> 0:20:49.040 in Bloomberg Radio dot com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. 0:20:55.040 --> 0:20:57.120 I'm Tom Busby in New York with your global look 0:20:57.119 --> 0:20:59.560 ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. 0:21:00.119 --> 0:21:04.560 Investors tracking the coming World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai 0:21:04.680 --> 0:21:07.639 very closely. For more on the conference and what to expect, 0:21:07.760 --> 0:21:10.880 let's go to our Bloomberg Daybreak Asia host Doug Krisner. 0:21:11.240 --> 0:21:11.520 Tom. 0:21:11.560 --> 0:21:16.240 We know chatchipt and other generative AI applications have sparked 0:21:16.280 --> 0:21:19.960 intense interest in the promise of artificial intelligence, and for 0:21:20.119 --> 0:21:23.840 China it sparked a new obsession competing with US titans 0:21:24.000 --> 0:21:27.440 names like Alphabet and Microsoft in the race for revolutionary 0:21:27.480 --> 0:21:31.199 apps for both business and consumers. Joining me now is 0:21:31.280 --> 0:21:34.480 Alan Jan He is Bloomberg Senior editor and our Shenzen 0:21:34.600 --> 0:21:38.680