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Speaker 1: This is Master's in Business with Barry Ridholes on Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: This week on Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio, I

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Speaker 1: have a very interesting and unusual guest. She is a

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Speaker 1: macro economist who I'm gonna guess you've never heard of.

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Speaker 1: Her name is Dambisa Moyo. She has a fascinating background

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Speaker 1: from Zambia to Wisconsin, to New York, Boston and then London. Uh.

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Speaker 1: She's uh uh they call it a nylon back and

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Speaker 1: forth between New York and London. Uh. Really fascinating person

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Speaker 1: who spends a lot of her time traveling. She's been

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Speaker 1: to over seventy countries. Author of three books. I find

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Speaker 1: her perspective and insights into what's happening in the global economy,

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Speaker 1: especially in the frontier markets and the emerging markets, really

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Speaker 1: very interesting. Some of the things we talked about were

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Speaker 1: very much different from what you usually hear from US

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Speaker 1: economists or US policymakers. She is quite well read, quite

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Speaker 1: highly educated, UH Masters and Policy Administration from the Kennedy

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Speaker 1: School and then a PhD in economics from Oxford UM.

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Speaker 1: Very much a free market person, but very difficult to pigeonhole.

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Speaker 1: Some of her comments about infrastructure around the world and

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Speaker 1: infrastructure in the United States. Uh, make it a challenge

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Speaker 1: to to put a label on her. I find her

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Speaker 1: to be quite fascinating, quite interesting. And you know, it's

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Speaker 1: unusual when I'm having a conversation in with one of

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Speaker 1: our guests that someone says something that genuinely surprised me.

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Speaker 1: And she did that a number of times. So, without

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Speaker 1: further ado, here is my conversation with economist dan Bisa Moyo.

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Speaker 1: This is Master Is in Business with Barry Ridholts on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. My guest today is Damn Bisa Moyo. She

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Speaker 1: is a global economist who has worked with firms such

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Speaker 1: as Goldman Sachs and the World Bank. Let me give

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Speaker 1: you a quick background on her. A BS. A fascinating

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Speaker 1: actually academic background. A BS in chemistry from American University.

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Speaker 1: You also got an NBA from there, followed up with

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Speaker 1: a master's in policy administration from the Harvard Kennedy School,

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Speaker 1: and then a PhD in economics at Oxford University. That

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Speaker 1: is really quite the eclectic academic background, isn't it. Well?

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Barry Um. Yes, I guess my attempts at

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Speaker 1: staying in school maybe went a little bit tough, further

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Speaker 1: than my parents had hoped. But yes, I feel very lucky.

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Speaker 1: I've had a chance to learn a lot in different areas,

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Speaker 1: and I've really enjoyed it. So um, you come out

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Speaker 1: of Oxford and you end up as an economist at

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Speaker 1: Goldman Sacks for nearly a decade. You then move on

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Speaker 1: to become a consultant to the World Bank in Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C. And currently you're serving on the boards of

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Speaker 1: directors for a number of companies. For people who may

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Speaker 1: not know the name Denbisa Moyo, you're the author of

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Speaker 1: three New York Times bestsellers, Dead Aid While Aid is

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Speaker 1: Not Working? And how there is a better way for Africa,

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Speaker 1: how the West was lost fifty years of economic folly,

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Speaker 1: and lastly, Winner take All China's race for resources and

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Speaker 1: what it means for the world. And I would be

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Speaker 1: remiss if I didn't mention you were named to Time

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Speaker 1: Magazines one of one hundred most influential people in the world.

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Speaker 1: Den Bisamoyo, Welcome to Bloomberg. Thank you Berry. So let's

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Speaker 1: talk a little bit about that eclectic background. How did

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Speaker 1: that lead you to the world of financial services? So

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Speaker 1: I suppose it's really about curiosity. Ultimately, I've always been

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Speaker 1: really interested in the marriage of science with real world outcomes,

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Speaker 1: and so I spent my time, my initial part of

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Speaker 1: my career focused on chemistry and science. That was my

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Speaker 1: undergraduate degree. And then I realized that a lot of

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Speaker 1: the scientific applications, in particular mathematics, were being applied in

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Speaker 1: in finance and more and more, and obviously, if you

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Speaker 1: think about black shoals and options pricing, et cetera, the

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Speaker 1: sort of gap between science and finances, I would say,

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Speaker 1: continued to narrow. So it was to me, actually in retrospect,

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Speaker 1: a pretty easy jump from a chemistry degree and also

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Speaker 1: an NBA, but also doing a PhD in economics moving

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Speaker 1: into finance, and that was really it was not more.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't really by design, I must confess, it was

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Speaker 1: sort of by accident. So when you talk about the

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Speaker 1: mathematics of science, when I look at at fields like

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Speaker 1: chemistry and physics, there's a tremendous precision. We're actually recording

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Speaker 1: this the day of the fly by by by Pluto.

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Speaker 1: You get incredible. The ability to land end on a

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Speaker 1: comet is something that physics does. Do you find that

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Speaker 1: economics doesn't quite have that same degree of precision. Humans

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Speaker 1: are a little squishy and they don't seem to really

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Speaker 1: operate as they're supposed to. Well, I'm sure i'll be

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Speaker 1: flogged for saying this by my fellow economists, but I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think it's really not a science in the sort

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Speaker 1: of purest form we'd like to be viewed as scientists,

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Speaker 1: because we do think that there's always a closed form

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Speaker 1: solution to some of the economic problems that we're all

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Speaker 1: very well aware of, with its economic growth, UM, issues

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Speaker 1: around climate change, estimations, et cetera. UM. But the reality

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Speaker 1: is actually um economics is just a compilation, particularly macroeconomics,

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Speaker 1: a compilation of human decisions and human behaviors UM driven

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Speaker 1: by incentives and there and individual utility functions, and therefore

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Speaker 1: it's very hard to model, especially you know, with over

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Speaker 1: seven billion people on the planet. Richard Faylor, who was

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Speaker 1: a guest previously the economist at the University of Chicago's

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Speaker 1: Boom School, called the father of behavioral economics, said the

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Speaker 1: entire field of economic misbehavior is really a function to

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Speaker 1: of how people operate in the real world, as opposed

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Speaker 1: to how they're supposed to operate according to the rules

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Speaker 1: of of economics. So when you say it's not a science,

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Speaker 1: you're in good company. Yes, I know Rich I just

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Speaker 1: had dinner with him not too long ago, and you know,

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Speaker 1: obviously it's got a fantastic book out, and he's absolutely

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Speaker 1: right that what we would like to see happen in theory,

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Speaker 1: particularly people like myself who are more on the free

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Speaker 1: marketeer side. Um. Actually, when reality doesn't really transpire, I mean,

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Speaker 1: governments behave badly, individuals behave badly, et cetera, and so

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Speaker 1: ultimately it doesn't really pan out. So when you were

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Speaker 1: at Goldman Sachs as an economist, what was your role?

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Speaker 1: Were you client facing? Were you advising other people within

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Speaker 1: the firm? So? Um? While of the Goldmen, I actually

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Speaker 1: had a couple of roles. Um. One of them, My

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Speaker 1: initial role when I first arrived was on the capital

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Speaker 1: market side and covered a lot of emerging market clients,

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Speaker 1: both sovereign states but also a number of corporations. The

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Speaker 1: bottom line was that I had actually spent a long

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Speaker 1: time doing my PhD in economics, sort of three and

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Speaker 1: a half years, and I really wanted to get practical

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Speaker 1: experience and how the markets worked. I was very interested

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Speaker 1: in emerging markets and so landed at Goldman and the

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Speaker 1: debt capital markets business. I subsequently went back into Reach

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Speaker 1: research um and was reading around the time of the

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Speaker 1: bricks work that Goldman put together. So did you work

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Speaker 1: with a gym Jim O'Neill. He's the one. Oh really,

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Speaker 1: he's the one who coined the phrase bricks. So so

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Speaker 1: let's now move forward. You were at the World Bank.

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Speaker 1: What was the environment like there? So, actually, just to

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Speaker 1: get the chronology a little bit correct, I've gone to

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Speaker 1: the World Bank before I did my doctorate, and so

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Speaker 1: I had I mean, I'm from an emerging market and

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Speaker 1: so I've always been fascinated not just by the big

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Speaker 1: economic global market, economic and macroeconomic questions, but I was

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Speaker 1: also very fascinating how finance can actually solve some of

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Speaker 1: the problems that we in the emerging markets. So a big,

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Speaker 1: big part of my experience at the World Bank was

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Speaker 1: around those issues. You're listening to Masters and Business on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. My special guest today is macro economist and

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Speaker 1: global observer Dambisa Moyo, who not too long ago published

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Speaker 1: a New York Times best selling book all about China

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Speaker 1: and its consumption of resources. So let's start over there.

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Speaker 1: We've seen China's growth slow, but it slowed from double

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Speaker 1: digits to six or seven percent. What's the outlook for

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Speaker 1: China over the next couple of years. The I m

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Speaker 1: F just published their World Economic outlook about a week ago,

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Speaker 1: and what they're forecasting is that it will roughly Uh,

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Speaker 1: China's growth will basically, however, around seven percent, and think

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Speaker 1: six point eight is what their estimate was. UM. Just

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Speaker 1: to put this into context, UM, you need to be

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Speaker 1: growing at at least seven percent in order to double

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Speaker 1: per capita incomes in one generation, So you know, I

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Speaker 1: would say that at UM. You know, unsurprisingly, uh, there

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Speaker 1: are concerns about the outlook not just for China but

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Speaker 1: global growth. And it's it's unsurprising in the sense that

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Speaker 1: China is obviously a very large part of the global economy,

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Speaker 1: and to the extent that the developed world continues to

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Speaker 1: suffer from issues around debt and deficits and issues around

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Speaker 1: aging populations and slowing productivity. It's no surprise that China,

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Speaker 1: which very heavily dependent has been dependent on the trade

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Speaker 1: arm to feel its economic growth has suffered as well.

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Speaker 1: So let's delve a little bit into your book Winner

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Speaker 1: take all China's race for resources and what it means

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Speaker 1: for the world. China is a massive consumer of natural resources,

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Speaker 1: aren't there. Yes, they absolutely are, and it's been very

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Speaker 1: well documented. I was fortunate enough about a year ago

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Speaker 1: to spend an hour with the President of China, President

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Speaker 1: Chijing Ping, with a group of ten of US, and

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Speaker 1: the one of the things I thought was incredibly stark

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Speaker 1: was that he expressed the view that the biggest channel

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Speaker 1: in that China has UM is the risk of scarcity

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Speaker 1: of natural resources UM. China is, with a population of

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Speaker 1: about a billion three has only seven percent arable land UM,

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Speaker 1: and it has a significant depletion as we know, around water,

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Speaker 1: which is very important. UM. They're continuing to try and

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Speaker 1: address the issues around pollution and environmental concerns because they

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Speaker 1: do have to feed themselves UM. But obviously UM a

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Speaker 1: big part of their agenda to continue to drive economic

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Speaker 1: growth has been focused on outreach and going into places

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Speaker 1: like South America and Africa. UM. They are the largest

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Speaker 1: foreign direct investment places like Australia, where natural resources from iron, ore, copper,

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Speaker 1: et cetera continue to be a big part of the

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Speaker 1: of the China story. And as we see China's economy

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Speaker 1: accelerate and decelerate, we see the impact in global prices.

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Speaker 1: If you look at iron ore and copper over the

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Speaker 1: past few months, it parallels almost to the scent the

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Speaker 1: trajectory of China's GDP and that absolutely and you know, Barry,

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Speaker 1: the the natural resource particularly mineral sectors had a very

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Speaker 1: bad UM few years UM. Last year two fourteen, I

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Speaker 1: was just looking at some data the impairments for the

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Speaker 1: whole industry, so mining industry, gold, copper, and iron ore

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Speaker 1: put together was a hundred billion dollars of right offs

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Speaker 1: impairments and that's really quite significant UM for for that

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Speaker 1: kind of of an industry. How much of that do

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Speaker 1: you trace directly to China's economic Well, it's hard to

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Speaker 1: say someone growing in seven percent is slowing, but relative

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Speaker 1: to you know, mid double digit growth, it is slower. No.

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Speaker 1: I mean, well, I think you're right. I mean there's

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Speaker 1: a directional point and then there's a relative point. I

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Speaker 1: think in directional point, I think we're going to see

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Speaker 1: China probably hover around seven percent. I'm pretty optimistic that

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Speaker 1: some of the interventions that the government is putting in

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Speaker 1: place will yield sort of in a flywheel effect, some

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Speaker 1: of the benefits of of sustained economic growth. Um, but

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Speaker 1: you're right, on a relative basiss is much slower. But

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Speaker 1: I think to look at it in isolation and start

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Speaker 1: handwaving that the sky is falling down, I think it

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Speaker 1: just really doesn't do that shows a lack of understanding

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Speaker 1: of how the global economic dynamic is likely to play out.

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Speaker 1: So there have been a number of China bears amongst

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Speaker 1: the hedge fund community. Uh and here in the United States.

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Speaker 1: It sounds like your outlook is somewhat optimistic for China's

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Speaker 1: ongoing growth. Yeah, I mean, I suppose optimistic is once

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Speaker 1: again a more relative word. I mean, I'm more constructive,

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Speaker 1: what can I say? And I think that you know, obviously,

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Speaker 1: with the massive sell off we've seen in the last

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Speaker 1: few days, and you know, the government intervention into the market,

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Speaker 1: I know that the bears are sort of cheering and

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Speaker 1: thinking they got it right. I mean, remember that the

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Speaker 1: stock markets are still on the year on your your

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Speaker 1: on your basis, are still above a trend. So I

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Speaker 1: think that on a twelve month basically, and even though

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Speaker 1: you're so year to date they're still positive. Just to

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Speaker 1: put a little mean on this, can China's government control

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Speaker 1: their stock market? Well? I think there are a couple

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Speaker 1: of things worth stating before I address that tricition directly.

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Speaker 1: First of all, the Chinese mark it is very retail

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Speaker 1: focused about much more so than the rest of the

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Speaker 1: much more so than that. As you know, I think

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Speaker 1: that sort of rule of thumb is like of the

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Speaker 1: U S market is owned by sort of the top

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Speaker 1: institution institutions. Um. But I think the more fundamental important

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Speaker 1: point here is that the intervention by the Chinese authorities

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Speaker 1: has been seen not just in China, but the US

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Speaker 1: is intervened in their markets. The Japanese have intervened in

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Speaker 1: their markets. I mean, you could argue that monetary policy

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Speaker 1: as we're seeing it now is an intervention by the

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Speaker 1: national governments in order, but it's indirect. What we're seeing

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Speaker 1: in China is a direct intervention in the markets. Look,

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Speaker 1: fiscal policy eventually finds its way to the markets. Monetary

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Speaker 1: policy finds its way to the markets, even tax policy.

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Speaker 1: You know, if you go back and look at what

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Speaker 1: Reagan did and what George W. Bush did, uh, the

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Speaker 1: Warren Buffet line was, Hey, give me a trillion dollars

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Speaker 1: and I'll throw you a heck of a party. That said,

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Speaker 1: it seems China is a different entirely than what we

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Speaker 1: see from Japan, or Europe or the United States in

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Speaker 1: their willingness to actually wade into the shares exchange and

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Speaker 1: either buy shares or prevent you know, it's unprecedented to

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Speaker 1: say of the shareholders, you're not allowed to sell for

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Speaker 1: six months. That's really direct. And by the way, that

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Speaker 1: started at once to fifty as they added more and

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Speaker 1: more rules. If you're a five percent holder, if you're

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Speaker 1: this stock, there's that's got to be unprecedented. Well, you know, Barry,

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Speaker 1: I think people tend to split hairs. I mean we

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Speaker 1: see um, you know, suspension of individual stocks or market suspensions.

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Speaker 1: We've seen that in Western economies. No short selling. They

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Speaker 1: prevented that absolutely, And so you know the responsibility of

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Speaker 1: public policies to ensure that you don't have a complete

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Speaker 1: collapse in the financial markets or in the economy. As

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Speaker 1: I just said, the structure, the underlying structure of the

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Speaker 1: financial markets in China means that there has to be

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Speaker 1: at bays a nature me I would argue, given that

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Speaker 1: this sort of mom and pop. Uh, you know, holding

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Speaker 1: the stock that the government would be more aggressive in

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Speaker 1: addressing this and trying to protect them. They don't have

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Speaker 1: the culture of pension funds and insurers as as we

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Speaker 1: have in the United States, and so I think it's

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Speaker 1: a bit naive to sort of think that they wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be as aggressive as they have. And we know about

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Speaker 1: interventions with foreign exchange, UM in many countries you picked

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Speaker 1: out Japan. I mean, we know about interventions in Monterrey

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Speaker 1: policy more generally, UM, I think it's it's really incumbent

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Speaker 1: on public policy to step in when the markets are

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Speaker 1: not clearing or there's a fundamental problem in the market system.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My

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Speaker 1: special guest today is Danbisa Moyo. She is a global

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Speaker 1: economist who specializes in emerging market and frontier markets. Um.

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Speaker 1: You're also the author of a book called Dead Aid

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Speaker 1: that was pretty critical of Western aid to Africa, and

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Speaker 1: you had noted a trillion dollars of aid has been

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Speaker 1: sent from risk rich Western countries to Africa and it's

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Speaker 1: essentially been wasted. Explain that the fundamental premise is we

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Speaker 1: have to reflect on what is the purpose of aid,

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Speaker 1: And the purpose of aid was twofold as far as

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Speaker 1: I could see. Number one was to create economic growth

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Speaker 1: in a sustained way. And as I mentioned to the

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Speaker 1: seven percent is really the rule of thumb, the number

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Speaker 1: that we need to achieve in order to double per

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Speaker 1: capita income growth, double income generation exactly, so really important

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Speaker 1: that we get to the seven percent number. Um. The

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Speaker 1: second thing is that we wanted to meaningfully put a

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Speaker 1: dent in poverty, and on these two metrics alone, the

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Speaker 1: fact of the matter is that that has not been

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Speaker 1: the case, and of course not even close. We've seen

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Speaker 1: many African countries regress, and I you know, I pick

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Speaker 1: on Africa because that's my origin. But the reality is,

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Speaker 1: if you look across aid recipient countries around the world,

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Speaker 1: it's been the same catastrophe Latin America, South America, South

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Speaker 1: East Asia and the look. The reality is we have

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Speaker 1: seen some cases where aid has been effective, but it

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Speaker 1: tends to be in short sharp interventions. The Martial Plan,

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Speaker 1: for example, a hundred billion dollars in roughly in today's estimates,

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Speaker 1: which is five years US putting money into Europe. But

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Speaker 1: it was noticed it wasn't an emerging market. It was

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Speaker 1: rebuilding developed that which is a different it's a completely

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Speaker 1: different tax. But there are also examples from the emerging markets,

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Speaker 1: places like South Korea, Butswana, they received aids. In fact,

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Speaker 1: they called the aid graduates because these countries were able

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Speaker 1: to utilize this received aid and to to basically to

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Speaker 1: catapult or two basically a catalyst for economic growth for

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Speaker 1: those economies. I am guilty of forgetting that South Korea

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Speaker 1: was once an aid recipient because they're one of the

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Speaker 1: most successful economic nations in the world. Absolutely so, so

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Speaker 1: what went right in South Korea that didn't go right

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Speaker 1: in Latin America or Africa. So I think that there

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Speaker 1: are many, of course, many aspects to what has happened.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they became very a cultural focus, so the

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Speaker 1: aspect of being able to be self reliant. UM, they've

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Speaker 1: obviously invested a tremendous amount of innovation and R and D,

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Speaker 1: and so they are, as you pointed out, one of

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Speaker 1: the very big competitive competing countries around the world in

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Speaker 1: those areas. UM, I would argue that what we've seen

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Speaker 1: in places like Africa and South America in particular, is

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Speaker 1: that there's been a large recipient of these countries have

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Speaker 1: been recipients of of money, um. But there was no

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Speaker 1: expectation that it was ever going to come to an end.

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Speaker 1: So we've seen the catalog of of corruption and misuse. UM.

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Speaker 1: We've seen inflation, we've seen concerns around debt, you know, debt,

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Speaker 1: I mean, and we're talking about Africa here, not Greece,

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Speaker 1: but I'm sure we'll come to Greece in a minute. UM.

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Speaker 1: But I think that there's a bigger issue here, which

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Speaker 1: is the fundamental problem with the aid system is that

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Speaker 1: it does sever the responsibility of the relationship between the

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Speaker 1: taxpayer in the individual country, um, and the their government.

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Speaker 1: So the government's very rationally spend their time courting the donors,

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Speaker 1: and the donors, i'm afraid to say, have tended not

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Speaker 1: to really care about what was going on on the

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Speaker 1: ground in the sense as a follow up. So even

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Speaker 1: if countries didn't deliver growth, they still gave them more aid,

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Speaker 1: as opposed to sort of punishing them or or you know,

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Speaker 1: really trying to change the Okay. So so I'm benevolent

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Speaker 1: dictator and I'm appointing them be some way in charge

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Speaker 1: of all global aid to emerging economies. What do you

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Speaker 1: do to make this work better? What's what's the what's

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Speaker 1: your prescription? So that's a fantastic question, Barry, because we

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Speaker 1: know the good news is that we're not living on

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Speaker 1: a planet zoo where there's no information. The reality is

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Speaker 1: we know what creates economic growth in a long term

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Speaker 1: in a long term context. We know that trade is

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Speaker 1: better than no trade. We know that investment in infrastructure

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Speaker 1: is a critical piece of this. We know that financial

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Speaker 1: liberalization and investment in financial sector is huge. Define that

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Speaker 1: as it applies to a frontier African country. What is that?

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Speaker 1: How does that actually manifest? Well, we need capital markets,

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Speaker 1: you need them to be liquid, right, and you need

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Speaker 1: them to be able to be transparent as well, in

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Speaker 1: the sense that like anywhere else, you need people to

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Speaker 1: be able to make bid an ask offers that people

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Speaker 1: are bid at, ask spreads that people can see and

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Speaker 1: make judgments on whether or not they want to sell

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Speaker 1: their goods and services at those prices. And I think

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Speaker 1: that one of the big problems with the eight systems

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Speaker 1: that does create a lot of lack of transparency, much

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Speaker 1: more opacity around market prices, and that's a massive distortionary

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Speaker 1: aspect in the economy. I have a friend who's a

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Speaker 1: banker in South Africa is his name is Prior Duplessis,

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Speaker 1: and he five years ago said I would like to

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Speaker 1: create an e t F for Africa, and I think

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Speaker 1: since then that's finally come about. But five years ago,

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Speaker 1: if you wanted to just make a purchase of of

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Speaker 1: African equities, it was almost impossible. Yeah. Absolutely, and I

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Speaker 1: must tell you, you you know, things have changed considerably, and

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Speaker 1: I think the financial crisis, if it was, if there's

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Speaker 1: anything good, was that it did force African countries are

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Speaker 1: the emerging markets, to figure out that they have to

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Speaker 1: stand on their own. And so we've seen now about

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Speaker 1: twenty countries in Africa have stock markets. We have in

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Speaker 1: about twenty countries in Africa also that have credit ratings

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Speaker 1: and they're issuing international debt. They have to take responsibility

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Speaker 1: for the running and management the economies. And by the way,

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Speaker 1: that is good democratic democratic policy anyway, because the governments

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Speaker 1: are then held accountable by their people. You're listening to

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Speaker 1: Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My guest today is

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Speaker 1: Danbisa Moyo. She is a globe trotting economist who has

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Speaker 1: visited more than fifty countries, and she likes to specialize

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Speaker 1: in the brick and frontier economies in Asia, South America, Africa,

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Speaker 1: in the Middle East. So let's talk a little bit

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Speaker 1: about your eclectic background and how you're really a citizen

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Speaker 1: of three different continents. You're you're born in Zambia, you

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Speaker 1: Compton the United States when you're fairly young, Right's right, yes,

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Speaker 1: and then you go back to Zambia to study chemistry

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Speaker 1: um in college. Yeah, so my formative years were definitely

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Speaker 1: in Africa's at least, let's let's way the way I

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Speaker 1: view it. Um. You know, my more recent time has

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Speaker 1: obviously been in the United States, where I did my

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Speaker 1: messes at Harvard and then going to Oxford to my

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Speaker 1: PhD and subsequently working abroad. Couldn't get into I know,

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Speaker 1: just shocking, what can I say? And you're now you're

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Speaker 1: kind of not even by coastal, you're by continent. You're

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Speaker 1: in London a couple of months a year, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm told it's called Nylon. So I spend time New

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Speaker 1: York London exactly. And someone did say to me, you

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Speaker 1: can also have Nylon Kong, which is New York London

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong. So but anyway, for now, it's Nylon. Um.

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Speaker 1: I have been actually over seventy countries around, yes, and

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Speaker 1: I have say, loved every minute of it. Um. And I,

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Speaker 1: you know, encourage listeners to put their boots on and

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Speaker 1: grab their passports and get out there. One of my

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Speaker 1: great laments about my fellow Americans is that only thirty

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Speaker 1: four percent of them actually have a passport. And I

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Speaker 1: often get into arguments with people about the state of

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Speaker 1: the US infrastructure. It's like, oh, you haven't been to

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Speaker 1: Asia or Europe? Have you? When you go to Brussels

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Speaker 1: and their roads are fantastic when they are about to

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Speaker 1: be repaired. Like what they think needs work is what

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Speaker 1: we I are two. Um, not even talking about the

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Speaker 1: Autobahn in Germany. And then let's not even talk about

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Speaker 1: trains and other infrastructure in Europe and Asia. We the

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Speaker 1: United States, once led the world, were so far behind.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned the importance of infrastructure, So let me ask

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Speaker 1: you that question. How significant is infrastructure even in a

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Speaker 1: developed nation like the United States. So we're sitting in

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Speaker 1: the United States and there's been a catastrophic under investment

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Speaker 1: in this country and infrastructure and at least three reasons

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Speaker 1: why it should be a no brainer. UM. One, Obviously,

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Speaker 1: developed economy and developing countries need the foundation of solid infrastructure.

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Speaker 1: But number two maduration perspective for long dated pension funds

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Speaker 1: and insurance companies. That absolutely And the third thing, which

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Speaker 1: I think is completely obvious, is that it's what a

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Speaker 1: great way to create employment in the United States. So,

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Speaker 1: by the way, now it's fascinating, I see a lot

429
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 1: of road construction that I haven't been seeing previously. But

430
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 1: we're reading more and more that it's the state and

431
00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 1: not the federal him and that's doing it. So Utah

432
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 1: and um, Washington State and now New York some of

433
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,640
Speaker 1: them have passed increase in the gasoline tax, which by

434
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:14,880
Speaker 1: the way, is frozen where it was. There's no cola,

435
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,199
Speaker 1: there's no cost of living adjustment. There's been no increase

436
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 1: as the number of people in the country of more

437
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 1: than double since then. So what a big surprise. And

438
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 1: I guess people don't get elected for for doing maintenance work.

439
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,159
Speaker 1: That crazy idea, um, But you know the truth of

440
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 1: the matter, I think most people would be willing to

441
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,440
Speaker 1: pay a little bit more to get decent infrastructure. I mean,

442
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 1: the road situations is atrocious. And actually the airports as well.

443
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:41,920
Speaker 1: I mean, I've been to better airports, you know than

444
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,360
Speaker 1: JFK and at Lagos in Nigeria. You heard what what

445
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 1: Vice President Biden said about LaGuardia. Third World airports are nice,

446
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,399
Speaker 1: and then LaGuardia. I think they just approved about a

447
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 1: six I know they approved, I don't remember, was seven

448
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,880
Speaker 1: or nine billion or less, but it's a multibillion dollar

449
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,919
Speaker 1: renovation of LaGuardia, which hopefully will be done in our lifetimes.

450
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 1: But it's really such a dump. And so overneath, at

451
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 1: least there are a handful of terminals in Kennedy and

452
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 1: JFK that that aren't half bad, that are are tolerable.

453
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 1: Although you know, the airport in Detroit is nice, the

454
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 1: airport and Denver is nice, but it's they're noticeable because

455
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 1: they're nice. The rest of them are. And you're in

456
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 1: Asia pretty regularly regale people with what infrastructure in Asia

457
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 1: is like. Well, you know, this is one of the

458
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,920
Speaker 1: one of the hallmarks of the Chinese and also Asian

459
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 1: success story is that they very quickly understood they needs

460
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,879
Speaker 1: to invest considerable amount of infrastructure. It's the way that

461
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 1: you get goods and services to market. It's the way

462
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 1: that your economy functions, the way to tell the communications work,

463
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 1: and that that's what they've spent a large chunk of

464
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 1: their money on. And you know, to the critique of some,

465
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 1: I mean, the people would argue that it's probably gone

466
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,400
Speaker 1: too far. In the property bubble in China that people

467
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 1: have been talking about is probably an artifact of that.

468
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,439
Speaker 1: But the reality is um. You know the US has

469
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 1: about GDP is consumption um in China, it's it's you know,

470
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 1: much just if that I mean, some estimates are on

471
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,679
Speaker 1: And this is I think really a testament to the

472
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 1: way people think about infrastructure and fixed income investments in

473
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,880
Speaker 1: the place like China versus that I'm gonna I'm gonna

474
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:21,679
Speaker 1: sick you on Grover Northquestern you'll be able to change

475
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 1: his perspective. Far too much focus on deficit financing. Right

476
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 1: by the way oil and gasoline prices are down so much,

477
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 1: What would be so terrible if if gasoline prices had

478
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:36,000
Speaker 1: a twenty cent tax. Yes, it's a tax so that

479
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 1: the roads and bridges and tunnels don't collapse. This is

480
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 1: how civilized societies behave UM Before I forget so you're

481
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 1: you're in London? How often about once a month? Oh,

482
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: so you're there pretty right? Yes, I know you have

483
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 1: you have an apartment, you're in an office right in

484
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 1: the middle of London. I wish that were true because

485
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: it's so expensive. I do an apartment or I did

486
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 1: have it. I did have an apartment, but as you

487
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 1: probably have seen the cost of apartments, it's just insane

488
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:07,919
Speaker 1: how expensive it is to get on the on the

489
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:11,440
Speaker 1: property letters. So more than San Francisco people have been set,

490
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 1: which is which is more than New York. As you know,

491
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,159
Speaker 1: England is an island, and so it's you can't exactly

492
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 1: keep expanding and they don't really do skyscrapers the way

493
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 1: they do. That's the thing is is you look at

494
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 1: you look at Hong Kong or Shanghai or New York. Well,

495
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:28,640
Speaker 1: there's no more land, but there's lots of air. And

496
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 1: now this new round of towers that have gone up

497
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 1: in New York are are they're astonishing residences as tall

498
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 1: as the Empire State Building. That's a whole new thing.

499
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 1: You really don't see that now, you definitely don't see that.

500
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,160
Speaker 1: I wonder if they're ever going to find uh, they're

501
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 1: totally out of space and need to start building up,

502
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 1: or they're just going to be a flat city like Paris,

503
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:50,880
Speaker 1: like some of the other great cities of Europe. They

504
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 1: don't build up, they build out, and then they run

505
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 1: out of space and they're done well. You know. I

506
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 1: think the which we were essentially talking about here is urbanization,

507
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 1: which is a huge pillar of public policy agendas, particularly

508
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,640
Speaker 1: emerging markets. As you probably are aware, in China today

509
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 1: they are about a hundred cities that have at least

510
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: one million people um and there have been very they

511
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 1: they the public political class, and China has been very

512
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 1: explicit that they're looking to increase that to two hundred

513
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:19,439
Speaker 1: and twenty one cities with one million people each in

514
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:22,880
Speaker 1: about twenty years by comparisons. Wait before you move off

515
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:26,920
Speaker 1: of that, is that because they're moving people away from

516
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 1: the agrarian hinder land and in the farms and into

517
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 1: uh more educated, more professionals. Partly partly to do with it,

518
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 1: but obviously, as we've seen even in the United States,

519
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 1: where in the d yet sixty of the population living

520
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 1: on land um you know, now have less sort of

521
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 1: two to three percent of Americans are involved in the

522
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 1: agricultural space. I mean that essentially the transition that we're

523
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 1: seeing in places like China. UM. And so it's very

524
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 1: deliberate because governments can then deliver public goods like infrastructure,

525
00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 1: but health care and education in a much more efficient

526
00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 1: way if people are closer together. So you've been to

527
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 1: over seventies different countries around the world. What do you

528
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 1: think Americans should know about the rest of the world

529
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 1: that we simply are ignorant about. Well, I think it's

530
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 1: more about a mindset. Um. You know, someone said to

531
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 1: me recently, actually, a very senior chairman and CEO of

532
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 1: an American companies said the interesting thing for him was

533
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:25,720
Speaker 1: that the rest of the world was more similar to

534
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 1: each other than the United States. And so by that

535
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 1: meaning the America is the anomaly. Everyone else is much

536
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 1: more similar, even even the European allies. UM. And I

537
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 1: think that the important thing from that is to really

538
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 1: understand why countries have developed in a very different way. Um.

539
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 1: There are many countries that have very long histories and civilization,

540
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 1: and it's very important to understand that countries do evan flow.

541
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: China and India were the largest economies of the world

542
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 1: in the eighteen hundreds thousands of years far. Absolutely well,

543
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 1: you know, Angus medicines data is from the eighteen hundreds. Um.

544
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: But they made mistakes, which countries do, and they paid

545
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 1: for it the whole referring to under investments in education

546
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 1: and infrastructure, all the stuff that we're talking about now.

547
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 1: They became much more clothes society and you know, there

548
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 1: they are. They lost multiple generations of their country internal progress. Absolutely.

549
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 1: But you know, the United States and I think this

550
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 1: is a fantastic country. I love being in the United States,

551
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:25,959
Speaker 1: but we know that. You know, the O E c

552
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 1: D Report, piece of reports on education is showing that

553
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 1: the United States right now is not in a good

554
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 1: place where education is concerned anything. It's getting worse. The

555
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 1: statistics around mathematics, performance and science is showing that the

556
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 1: United States is sort of number twenty five in the world. Um.

557
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 1: In fact that the o E c D also put

558
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 1: out a report saying that this generation of Americans is

559
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 1: less educated than the previous generation for the first time

560
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 1: in the history of the country. And you know, we've

561
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 1: talked about infrastructure already. I mean, to me, these are

562
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 1: the sort of the this is the impetus for declining

563
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 1: society if the government doesn't do and not just the government,

564
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 1: but if citizens don't really get up and say this

565
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 1: is not what the direction we want ahead. So there's

566
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 1: there's enough sort of warnings about the sort of economic

567
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 1: challenges that the US is going to face, And the

568
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 1: question is is there anybody who's responsible enough to really

569
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 1: take charge of them to move is positively? Well, well,

570
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 1: is there? Well, we'll see when the election rolls around

571
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 1: next year, whoever you decide to elect, we'll decide that.

572
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 1: All right, Well, we'll find out. We've been speaking with them.

573
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 1: Bisa Moyo, global economists and consultant to various banks and

574
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 1: other institutions. By the way, if people want to find

575
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 1: your written work and research, where can they access that

576
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 1: my website don't be Samyo dot com. If you enjoy

577
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 1: this conversation, be sure and check out our podcast extras,

578
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:48,160
Speaker 1: where we let the tape rolling and continue discussing weighty

579
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 1: issues with our guest. Be sure and check out my

580
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 1: daily column on Bloomberg View dot com. Follow me on

581
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 1: Twitter at rit Holts. I'm Barry H. Halts. You're listening

582
00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 1: to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. Welcome to the

583
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 1: podcast Portion of our show. You noticed the way I

584
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 1: have to do that. That's my welcome gesture. I'm sitting

585
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 1: with Dan Bisa Moyo, who I was fortunate enough to

586
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 1: first meet at a UM, trying to remember where we

587
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 1: first met, and then we subsequently went to a lunch

588
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 1: with a friend, Josh Frankel of of Merrill lynch Um

589
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 1: and there are so many questions that had come up

590
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 1: during that lunch. I want to run through some of

591
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:32,479
Speaker 1: them because they're they're quite quite fascinating. But before we

592
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 1: start getting into your early history, UM, there were some

593
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 1: questions that I missed during our broadcast portion. So the

594
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 1: most important I want I want to get to is

595
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 1: you're a board member for a number of global companies

596
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 1: and that's really it's a fascinating set. So Barclay's Bank

597
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 1: not only on the board of directors, but you're a

598
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 1: member of the risk committee that they're a giant financial

599
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 1: UM headquar they headquarter in London. They based in London,

600
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:05,720
Speaker 1: but they obviously purchased they brought Lehman Brothers assets. They've

601
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 1: been in Africa for a hundred years and after the

602
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 1: Lehman brother assets purchased after the financial crisis. Obviously they've

603
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 1: got a big for a song. It was such a

604
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 1: great purchase post you know, they were negotiating pre bankruptcy

605
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:19,239
Speaker 1: and nobody could look at their books and make an

606
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 1: intelligent assessment and you have forty five minutes, here's a

607
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 1: hundred billion dollars um. So they it was a fantastic

608
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 1: purchase out of bankruptcy. I love those sort of like

609
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 1: let's be a little patient and see if we can

610
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 1: get a distress sale. And that's exactly what they ended

611
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 1: up doing. S A. B. Miller the giant beer company,

612
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 1: beer company, brewing company US based, but they're global now

613
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 1: every and I said, I actually misspoke, I said beer company.

614
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 1: But actually they also produced water and soft drinks, so

615
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 1: they themselves have you know, expanded their portfolio and really

616
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 1: capitalizing on mention of the emerging market growth of consumer.

617
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 1: What we see with Coca Cola and Pepsian and similar

618
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 1: be companies is the soda sells no pun intended or

619
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 1: flat um, but it's the water and juices that are

620
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,319
Speaker 1: really the growth drivers these days. It's not T two

621
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 1: to some degree also, but it's no longer soda. It's healthy,

622
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:17,279
Speaker 1: natural and water is an issue wherever you go, isn't

623
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 1: it absolutely um? And then the third company Barrack Gold,

624
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 1: where you're also a member of the Order committee. So

625
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:27,279
Speaker 1: these are so eclectic, and you know, if I were

626
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 1: to randomly pick three companies, I wouldn't say Barclay's, a

627
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 1: gold company and a brewing company. How did you end

628
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 1: up finding these companies? How did this come about? Well,

629
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 1: I'm really very lucky that I've had the opportunity to

630
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 1: serve on these boards. And the reality is that I

631
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 1: was very interested in being constantly being able to capture

632
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 1: a view on what's happening in the world economy. And

633
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:53,919
Speaker 1: so through the financial services, Barkley's consumer goods, fast moving

634
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 1: consumer goods, through the beer sab Miller, and then natural

635
00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 1: resources through Barrack, I've been able to me to get

636
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 1: a good idea of what's happening in these many different

637
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 1: aspects of the global economy. And so that's been quite

638
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,840
Speaker 1: deliberate but also very fortunate on my part. And I

639
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,800
Speaker 1: always call them Barrack Gold, but really they're Barrack Gold,

640
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:14,279
Speaker 1: Copper and other wars. Gold is just a part of

641
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 1: what they did. That's absolutely right. I mean, we've had

642
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 1: a copper business for a number of years, not quite

643
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 1: significant number of years, a century or two something like that.

644
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 1: That long. We've only been around about thirty years, that's all. Yeah.

645
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 1: But even though it's it is the largest gold produce

646
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 1: in the world, it is. Yes, that's fascinating, and you're

647
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 1: only wearing one piece of gold, usually dripping in gold.

648
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 1: So so let's talk a little bit about your background.

649
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 1: I just wanted to make sure I touched base with

650
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 1: that before. Um there's a tendency to just get lost

651
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:46,880
Speaker 1: in digressions, and I wanted to make sure we covered that.

652
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 1: So so who are your early mentors who basically said

653
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 1: this chemistry stuff is interesting, but you should look good

654
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 1: at finance and economics. So in my case, absolutely my parents.

655
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 1: And I know that sounds a bit canned, but I

656
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 1: really think to look at my parents as being the

657
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 1: real pioneers from um, coming from Africa, which is where

658
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 1: I come from. I come from a landlocked, small country

659
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 1: and you know at that time about ten million people

660
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 1: and uh, you know, they left Africa to come to

661
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 1: the United States. My father's his PhD. Here where PhD Wisconsin?

662
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:24,879
Speaker 1: And what was his PhD? It was in linguistics. Yes, oh,

663
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 1: that's fast. So how do you go from Zambia to Wisconsin.

664
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 1: That's not round? No exactly. I think they learned the

665
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 1: hard way, how brutally they called it, can get out there.

666
00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:36,400
Speaker 1: Um but he also they also studied briefly at U

667
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 1: C l A. But you know that transition, it's not

668
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:41,320
Speaker 1: we we take things so much for granted. Now to

669
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 1: tell a communication, just up the phone and call home.

670
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 1: But but at that time they had never no one

671
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:48,240
Speaker 1: from their families had ever left Africa, so they didn't

672
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:50,719
Speaker 1: know how to get an airplane and to connect in

673
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 1: London to get to Los Angeles and then obviously to

674
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:56,319
Speaker 1: medicine later on. But um so I considered them to

675
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:59,800
Speaker 1: be the pioneers, and they're really a testament to open

676
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 1: mindedness not getting bogged down by negativity. I mean, they

677
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 1: were coming out of the colonial era, but they were

678
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:09,240
Speaker 1: still very optimistic young Africans, very keen on economics and education,

679
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 1: educational success, and so they had to be thrilled watching

680
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 1: you work your way from one university too. There's still

681
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:17,839
Speaker 1: some schools you haven't gone to. Yeah, I know, I'm

682
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 1: still working on it, but but your parents have have

683
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 1: to when you graduated with your from Oxford. They had

684
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 1: to be thrilled to say, oh look what a little

685
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 1: well you know. Thankfully they were there at Oxford when

686
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 1: I was awarded the doctorate, so they were very thrilled

687
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 1: and that was a great experience. That's fantastic. Um So

688
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:41,359
Speaker 1: what about economists who have influenced you? Who are who

689
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 1: were the great thinkers and economics who affected your approach

690
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 1: to macro? So I've tended to air on the side

691
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 1: of being a free marketeer. Um So, perhaps more of

692
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 1: the Chicago school than anything else. Yes, and some of

693
00:37:56,920 --> 00:38:00,959
Speaker 1: the stuff you've said has not been so people think

694
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 1: of you is a little more right leaning. But you're

695
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 1: right leaning in the UK. Here you're what would have

696
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 1: been considered a moderate Republican thirty years ago. Unfortunately, you

697
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 1: have to go to the musingum in natural history and

698
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 1: next to the Brontosaurus you can see the moderate Republicans

699
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:22,359
Speaker 1: who pretty much aren't certainly not elected anymore. No, I

700
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 1: I do know I have these strange monikers. I mean,

701
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 1: I suppose I come from a place where I don't

702
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:30,279
Speaker 1: want to feel hamstrung by Are you a Democrat or

703
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 1: your Republican? Are you Kansian? Are you I just think

704
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 1: that those type of ascribing, those type of of labels

705
00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:38,920
Speaker 1: takes away from what the real issues are. UM. And

706
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 1: you know, I was a couple of years ago was

707
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:45,280
Speaker 1: awarded the hyak um Uh Frederick Kayak Lifetime Achievement Award

708
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 1: UM at a young age. Say that, but you were there.

709
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 1: Tell me if I'm staying this wrong. You were the

710
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 1: youngest recipient of the high Ak Lifetime Achievement Awards. That's

711
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:59,240
Speaker 1: what I was told that. Who knows so, But anyway,

712
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 1: the point was that, you know, in researching about high

713
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 1: X work, he and Kaine's were actually very close and

714
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 1: respected each other's work. And I've actually written a number

715
00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 1: of articles about the need for unified approach to economics.

716
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:13,960
Speaker 1: I mean that neither of us are correct. And you know,

717
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 1: I mean things companies, companies and economies EBB and flow.

718
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 1: What might be true in a moderately growing economy which

719
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 1: doesn't have any shocks is completely different. UM in terms

720
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 1: of potential government intervention when you have a financial crisis,

721
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 1: for example, if you're going to be rational, how are

722
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:32,520
Speaker 1: we going to be able to argue? I know, it's

723
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 1: kind of crazy. So I think in my in my

724
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 1: later life and just talking coming back to your question

725
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:40,240
Speaker 1: about mentors and from economics, I tend to like people

726
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 1: are more pragmatic, and we clearly need governments to be

727
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 1: involved in delivery of public goods, and there is clearly

728
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 1: a point at which governments can do too much and

729
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:53,399
Speaker 1: therefore really undermine incentives and utility, the stuff that free

730
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,440
Speaker 1: marketeers love. And so we're constantly trying to find that balance.

731
00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 1: But I think, you know, I'm very interested in in

732
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 1: the sort of the a Navyan model because I think

733
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:04,240
Speaker 1: they probably on the whole have a more interesting approach

734
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 1: to the left versus rights views about economics, and so

735
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:10,719
Speaker 1: that's how I tend to approach things that that's pretty fascinating.

736
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 1: You know, the debate we need some government, should it

737
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:16,760
Speaker 1: be the line be here towards more or here towards

738
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:23,120
Speaker 1: less is a rational debate sometimes, especially some libertarians and

739
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 1: followers of Hiak. I've made the argument you really don't

740
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:28,359
Speaker 1: need government, the free market will take care of it.

741
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 1: And my answer is always, well, that ain't working out

742
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 1: in Somalia, why do you think it could work out

743
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 1: in a developed country like the United States. No government

744
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 1: is going to create a power vacuum and some entity,

745
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:43,240
Speaker 1: be it military or corporate, is going to fill that

746
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 1: that empty space, So you have to have something there.

747
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:51,439
Speaker 1: It seems rational. There are people who don't buy that argument. Well,

748
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:53,279
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's interesting because I think what I

749
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:57,240
Speaker 1: would say is that there's much more scope for improvement

750
00:40:57,400 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 1: of the electoral system in the United States and by

751
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 1: and more generally of liberal democracy. I think that a

752
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:06,919
Speaker 1: lot of the challenges of the world faces right now,

753
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 1: whether it's aging populations, infrastructure challenges, under education, those tend

754
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:16,880
Speaker 1: to be intergenerational, long term structural problems, and yet the

755
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 1: political system is very short term. You've got elections every

756
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:23,320
Speaker 1: two years. The motivations are kind of skewed and very rational,

757
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:26,799
Speaker 1: but skewed all the same and in fact disincentivizing politicians

758
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:29,640
Speaker 1: to focus on these long term issues. And so you know,

759
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 1: the question is is their flexibility in the democratic system

760
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:36,720
Speaker 1: to actually innovate and improve upon the liberal democratic system

761
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 1: so that it's better matches the economic challenges with the

762
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 1: political system. And I think that's where the discussion should

763
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 1: be in the United States and in many of the

764
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:47,320
Speaker 1: developed world countries. You know, it's very easy to become

765
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 1: frustrated and cynical when you look at, um, just a

766
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:54,719
Speaker 1: relentless parade of negative headlines in the United States. Not

767
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:57,320
Speaker 1: so much that bad things are happening, it's that simple

768
00:41:57,360 --> 00:42:01,359
Speaker 1: things can't get fixed because of political realysis. And then

769
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 1: you enter a period of time like the last sixty days,

770
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 1: look at everything that's going on today, it's almost enough

771
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 1: to give a person hope. Maybe maybe it's easier when

772
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 1: you're talking about foreign policy, because there's a look, we

773
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:22,360
Speaker 1: see what's going on with I ran today, that's surprisingly hopeful. Um,

774
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 1: when we ran our analysis of what this does to

775
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 1: the price of oil, uh, and then what a reduced

776
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:32,800
Speaker 1: price of oil does to the global economy, I'm reluctant

777
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 1: to say, it's almost enough to make one optimistic. But

778
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:38,640
Speaker 1: then when you look at basic stuff like rose, it's

779
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 1: incredibly frustrating that even the most simple government functions seems

780
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:48,479
Speaker 1: to be mired in paralysis. It's not that government can't work,

781
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:53,359
Speaker 1: it's that government presently as it's constituted isn't working absolutely.

782
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 1: And I think we shouldn't be pollyannish about democracy and

783
00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:58,879
Speaker 1: liberal democracy and its failures. And I think that's part

784
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:01,400
Speaker 1: of the problem. People hold it so sacrasanc to our

785
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:04,279
Speaker 1: our forefathers said this, and therefore we can't do anything

786
00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 1: about it, which is sort of the antithesis of Americana.

787
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,600
Speaker 1: I mean, America is about innovations, about improvement, it's about

788
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:14,359
Speaker 1: creative destruction, et cetera. And so I think that democracy.

789
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 1: And by the way, we should absolutely be optimistic, whether

790
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:20,800
Speaker 1: it's about the U. S. Economy and about the global

791
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 1: economy or foreign policy, etcetera. Um, but we shouldn't be

792
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 1: sort of obtuse about what needs to be done. And

793
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:29,839
Speaker 1: I think that there is a lot of scope for improvements,

794
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:33,440
Speaker 1: such as looking at term limits, looking at extending of terms, um.

795
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:35,319
Speaker 1: You know, and some of those experiments are already taking

796
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:37,919
Speaker 1: place around the world. Mandatory voting, god, you know, dare

797
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:41,120
Speaker 1: I say it without getting shots in America? That would

798
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:43,359
Speaker 1: be of you know. The problem that you run into

799
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 1: with mandatory voting is the people who are too uninformed,

800
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:50,359
Speaker 1: talking about low information voters, the people who are like, oh,

801
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 1: is it an election in November? So I don't know

802
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:56,320
Speaker 1: the On the one hand, I like the theoretical concept

803
00:43:56,320 --> 00:43:58,759
Speaker 1: of mandatory voting. Then you look at the people who

804
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,360
Speaker 1: never bothered a vote and it's really is that. But

805
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 1: that's a civic responsibility. I mean, we can we look

806
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 1: at another whole conversation, but you know, we cannot sit

807
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 1: here and complain about the government's under performance. If we

808
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 1: can't be bothered to go and vote. You know you,

809
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:14,360
Speaker 1: if you can't be bothered to go out there and

810
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:17,239
Speaker 1: express your view, then you really therefore should not sit

811
00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 1: around complaining about lack of infrastructure, under investment, education or

812
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 1: pensions or etcetera. All the other things that we spend

813
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:25,319
Speaker 1: a lot of time moaning about. There has to be

814
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,720
Speaker 1: some way to speaking of Richard Thaylor, to nudge people

815
00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 1: into voting the way they've done it with Oregon donation

816
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 1: and other such stuff. It could be set up to

817
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 1: encourage more people to vote, certainly to make it easier

818
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:43,879
Speaker 1: to vote. Um, but we're a nation that maybe it's

819
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:48,040
Speaker 1: we're too wealthy and too relatively well off to be

820
00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 1: all that concerned. We have amongst the lowest voting turnout.

821
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:58,280
Speaker 1: Voter turnout in industrialized democracy certainly much lower than Europe,

822
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:01,319
Speaker 1: although they're trending down also aren't Yes, they are, absolutely so.

823
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:04,400
Speaker 1: Is that a function of wealth or just people getting lazy?

824
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:07,800
Speaker 1: So there there's a whole history and you know, literature

825
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:10,279
Speaker 1: on this issue, and you know, obviously we won't have

826
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 1: time to go into in grave detail, but I definitely

827
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:16,000
Speaker 1: think that, you know, there is an element of indifference

828
00:45:16,040 --> 00:45:19,239
Speaker 1: that can occur. You know, when people are quite satiated,

829
00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 1: they're sort of physical and human needs, sort of Masow's

830
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 1: hierarchy of needs, that you're sort of satiated, and therefore,

831
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:27,719
Speaker 1: you know, on the margin, they may not like certain things,

832
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:30,319
Speaker 1: but it's not so fundamental that they feel like they

833
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:32,439
Speaker 1: need to go out there and express a very strong view.

834
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:34,720
Speaker 1: So now now we don't have to you just resolve

835
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 1: that issue to spend a lot of time in that.

836
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:39,240
Speaker 1: So let's talk a little bit about global events, because

837
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:42,279
Speaker 1: we really haven't. Um, what do you think about what's

838
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:46,200
Speaker 1: happening in Greece with the European solution to them staying

839
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 1: on the euro Do you think this was the right decision?

840
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:52,480
Speaker 1: Do you think Greece uh overplayed their hands, should have

841
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 1: left the euro? What? What? What's your impression on that? So? Um,

842
00:45:56,640 --> 00:46:00,040
Speaker 1: my view on Greece is that what we've seen in

843
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:03,279
Speaker 1: recent sort of months and probably even the last few

844
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:07,399
Speaker 1: years has never been a transition it's been an equilibrium,

845
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:09,920
Speaker 1: and I think it's very important people understand the difference.

846
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 1: I think there's been a misunderstanding in the markets that

847
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:16,960
Speaker 1: somehow Greek's debt and the restructuring needs and around pension

848
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 1: funds and UH civil service, et cetera, where things that

849
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 1: we're going to get resolved and then we move into

850
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:24,719
Speaker 1: this amazing equilibrium where the euros functioning. And I don't

851
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 1: agree with that at all. I think that what we

852
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 1: have is has all the hallmarks of the aid system.

853
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:35,239
Speaker 1: We have a large functioning UH in it's called institution

854
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 1: Group of countries, which is the European Union, that has

855
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,080
Speaker 1: a lot of money. Put the call on the donor,

856
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 1: and you have a relatively poor UM, non performing, dysfunctional

857
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 1: many ways, it's dysfunctional UM economy that actually, I would say,

858
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:54,279
Speaker 1: and I use the term lightly is being rewarded for

859
00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:58,000
Speaker 1: bad behavior. And so you've ended up in this locked

860
00:46:58,239 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 1: equilibrium where the donor needs the recipient to stay in

861
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:05,799
Speaker 1: because obviously there are too many risks and a number

862
00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:08,759
Speaker 1: of very significant risks for Greece. Leaving you could you know,

863
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:12,080
Speaker 1: to be a portal for terrorists, it could be undermine

864
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:15,000
Speaker 1: the union, itself because other countries will say, well what

865
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 1: about us, We will also want to be a bit

866
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 1: more lax, etcetera, etcetera. UM. But there's also benefits for

867
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:23,400
Speaker 1: the recipient to keep in the in the game. And

868
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:27,479
Speaker 1: this is like a game theoretic corner or solution that

869
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:30,200
Speaker 1: I've seen play out in the emerging markets. With the

870
00:47:30,239 --> 00:47:33,320
Speaker 1: aid system, you have donors that continue to give money

871
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:35,200
Speaker 1: even though these countries are not doing what they said

872
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 1: they were going to do. Um, but you know they

873
00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:39,760
Speaker 1: will will get to such an extent that the donors

874
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:42,680
Speaker 1: are even willing to pay the countries to repay the debt.

875
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:44,920
Speaker 1: So the book on the books, it looks like the

876
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 1: country is paying back the money, but actually we don't

877
00:47:47,160 --> 00:47:51,000
Speaker 1: see the improvements in the metrics such as growth or improvement,

878
00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 1: increases in retirement age, all the stuff that you know,

879
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:56,759
Speaker 1: Greece in particular is looking at. But you know, more

880
00:47:56,840 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 1: structural issues that need to be addressed. When we look

881
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:04,200
Speaker 1: at the strug tlitioners in Greece, the concept of everybody

882
00:48:04,239 --> 00:48:08,320
Speaker 1: having to pay their taxes just seems to be completely foreign,

883
00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 1: and it's not a surprise. There's an underground economy. My

884
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:15,640
Speaker 1: favorite data point I'm trying to remember who ran the story.

885
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:18,280
Speaker 1: It was either the Times or the Wall Street Journal

886
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 1: about the swimming pools and Athens. So you pay a

887
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:24,239
Speaker 1: tax on a swimming pool. It's not a whole lot

888
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:27,120
Speaker 1: of money, but it's a trump of change, and something

889
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:30,680
Speaker 1: like a hundred people paid the swimming pool tax and Athens.

890
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:33,719
Speaker 1: But you use a Google satellite image and there's sixteen

891
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 1: thousand swimming pools. So the lack of the taxpayer avoidance data,

892
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:44,400
Speaker 1: people aren't paying their taxes. How can anybody run a

893
00:48:44,480 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 1: government on infrastructure and economy when when the bulk of

894
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 1: the public just aren't participating in their civic obligation. But

895
00:48:52,680 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 1: that's what it's gonna say. It goes back to the

896
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:56,560
Speaker 1: civic obligation because that is I mean, you know, it's

897
00:48:56,600 --> 00:49:00,440
Speaker 1: patently unfair, I would say, to be to for people

898
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:03,839
Speaker 1: to draw on the system, a societal system without feeling

899
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 1: that they should be contributing in some respect. And now,

900
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:09,359
Speaker 1: obviously over the lifetime of certain people, things happen so

901
00:49:09,400 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 1: that the society and that's why society's have been flows

902
00:49:12,120 --> 00:49:14,520
Speaker 1: that they have a welfare aspect, they have government stepping

903
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:17,359
Speaker 1: in when markets don't clear et cetera. But clearly what

904
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:20,279
Speaker 1: has happened in the grease construct is that this economy

905
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:23,880
Speaker 1: is not a developed economy in any way near what

906
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:27,360
Speaker 1: it should have been. It's somewhere between emerging market and

907
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:29,600
Speaker 1: and a developing kind, and I think it needs a

908
00:49:29,640 --> 00:49:32,440
Speaker 1: lot more latitude and flexibility to do what it needs

909
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 1: to do to improve it's, you know, its own lot,

910
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,000
Speaker 1: and under you know, under the auspices of the Euro.

911
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:39,280
Speaker 1: I think it's just made it much more, much more difficult.

912
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 1: I mean, in a nutshell, I don't think that they'll

913
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 1: be able to leave or be asked to leave. All right,

914
00:49:43,640 --> 00:49:45,400
Speaker 1: So I only have you for ten more minutes, So

915
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 1: let me plow through some of my favorite questions that

916
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 1: I ask of all my guests. Let's talk a little

917
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:54,359
Speaker 1: bit about books and reading. You're obviously well educated, and

918
00:49:54,360 --> 00:49:58,680
Speaker 1: you've read a lot of UM textbooks. What other books

919
00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 1: do you enjoy reading? Um? I'm trying to think of

920
00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:04,760
Speaker 1: what I'm reading now that I really like, I tend

921
00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:07,719
Speaker 1: to like. I'm kind of into the marathon zone right now,

922
00:50:07,840 --> 00:50:11,280
Speaker 1: so I'm actually reading a book by Stu Middleman, who

923
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:14,440
Speaker 1: is a marathon I believe he's in the mid to

924
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 1: late sixties. I mean he's run so many marathons and

925
00:50:17,280 --> 00:50:20,200
Speaker 1: ultra marathons, which a hundred milers and he's actually eroded

926
00:50:20,320 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 1: his his knees. Um, he's got no cartilage and so

927
00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:26,719
Speaker 1: but I'm fascinated by sports. I love tennis. I was

928
00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 1: just at Wimbledon finals over the weekend. Yeah, so that

929
00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:35,839
Speaker 1: was fantastic. There are repeated opportunities for him to pull

930
00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:39,720
Speaker 1: that out. And you got to give Jokeovic credit. He's

931
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:44,440
Speaker 1: just a machine. He's a guy, has total package. There's

932
00:50:44,719 --> 00:50:47,560
Speaker 1: we could digress into tennis. But anyway, the blonde so

933
00:50:47,719 --> 00:50:50,879
Speaker 1: short as I'm really into books now more on athletics

934
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:55,600
Speaker 1: and how your running marathons? You started a year ago, Yes,

935
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:58,560
Speaker 1: I did. I was in my forties already. Um, and

936
00:50:58,680 --> 00:51:01,000
Speaker 1: so you still have some cartilage left. I have a

937
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:03,400
Speaker 1: little bit of cartonage left at least hasn't been eroded

938
00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:06,279
Speaker 1: by the passage of time. But well, those, by the way,

939
00:51:06,320 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 1: those ultra everybody forgets. I I'm fond of telling you know,

940
00:51:09,760 --> 00:51:12,919
Speaker 1: you say an ultra marathon or has no cartlerge left

941
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 1: in his knee. Everybody forgets. The guy who ran the

942
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:19,840
Speaker 1: first marathon was it Sparta to Athens or to to marathon.

943
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:23,480
Speaker 1: He dropped dead when he arrived. I think we took

944
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 1: the wrong lesson from that. The lesson is twenty six

945
00:51:26,239 --> 00:51:28,840
Speaker 1: miles is too far to run. It's twenty six point

946
00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:32,319
Speaker 1: two bad. Don't forget the point too. Don't forget they

947
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:34,880
Speaker 1: dropped dead at the end. That's the thing that I remember,

948
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:37,680
Speaker 1: and that's why I used to run long distance in

949
00:51:37,680 --> 00:51:40,800
Speaker 1: in high school and college. But I competed three miles

950
00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:44,319
Speaker 1: and that's it. Three miles is plenty. And since I

951
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:48,680
Speaker 1: stopped that, I've fortunately managed to retain my girls figure.

952
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:52,200
Speaker 1: But so, so, what other nonfiction books do you do?

953
00:51:52,239 --> 00:51:55,320
Speaker 1: You like? What something related to finance and economics, to anything.

954
00:51:55,560 --> 00:51:58,200
Speaker 1: I'm actually reading a book right now. Um, I'm gonna

955
00:51:58,239 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 1: get the title wrong. I think it's called The Fallen

956
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:04,719
Speaker 1: Cut something Catastrophe. It's on Greece. Funny enough. I don't

957
00:52:04,719 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 1: know why it's popped out of my head. I remember

958
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:09,080
Speaker 1: before we head off. But basically it's case studies. It

959
00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:11,400
Speaker 1: was written by New York New York Times journalists. Has

960
00:52:11,440 --> 00:52:15,759
Speaker 1: just come out. It's basically case studies, really underscoring the

961
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:19,200
Speaker 1: stuff we're talking about, the dysfunctionality of the society and

962
00:52:19,239 --> 00:52:23,000
Speaker 1: how it's really I think for traders in particular, it's

963
00:52:23,040 --> 00:52:25,600
Speaker 1: as lots of lessons learned about how we should be

964
00:52:25,640 --> 00:52:28,920
Speaker 1: thinking about the the Greece is likelihood of of exit,

965
00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:31,279
Speaker 1: but also the likelihood of some of the reforms that

966
00:52:31,320 --> 00:52:33,760
Speaker 1: are being demanded upon them actually been coming to fruit.

967
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:37,239
Speaker 1: And thank you so much for not saying Grex. But

968
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:40,799
Speaker 1: what's interesting to me about Greece is economically there's only

969
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:44,480
Speaker 1: so far tourism and agriculture scale. They really need a

970
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:47,640
Speaker 1: little bit more of a modern economy, and there's just

971
00:52:47,719 --> 00:52:51,120
Speaker 1: real massive cultural resistance to that, isn't there. I think

972
00:52:51,239 --> 00:52:53,440
Speaker 1: many countries need a little bit more of a modern,

973
00:52:53,760 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 1: modern take. And if you look at what's happening in

974
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 1: technology space, it's very clear that you know, we we

975
00:52:58,680 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 1: there will be gains of a there will also be

976
00:53:00,560 --> 00:53:03,440
Speaker 1: significant losers if countries don't continue to innovate in a

977
00:53:03,480 --> 00:53:06,200
Speaker 1: more aggressive way. So, so you said you started running

978
00:53:06,200 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 1: marathon in your forties. Whatever motivated you at that age

979
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:12,720
Speaker 1: to say, I think I'll start running twenty six point

980
00:53:12,840 --> 00:53:17,239
Speaker 1: two miles Like that's sort of an unusual thing late

981
00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:23,240
Speaker 1: in life, isn't it? It is? Um, I think, But well,

982
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:26,839
Speaker 1: the oldest marathon runner started running at eighty nine. He's

983
00:53:26,880 --> 00:53:29,800
Speaker 1: now his hundreds. He's about a hundred and two hundred, stunning,

984
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:31,839
Speaker 1: still running marathons. And by the way, I just remember

985
00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:33,359
Speaker 1: the name of the book. The book called The Full

986
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:38,960
Speaker 1: Catastrophe by James Angelus. It's very good running marathons at

987
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 1: a hundred, yes, absolutely, and a hundred you're entitled to

988
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:45,320
Speaker 1: sit down for he could take a cab. He doesn't.

989
00:53:45,880 --> 00:53:49,919
Speaker 1: He didn't take a cab across the line. He's fantastic. Yeah,

990
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:51,879
Speaker 1: it's really amazing. But in anyway, it's the long story.

991
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:54,879
Speaker 1: Short is that you may recall last year two thousan

992
00:53:55,000 --> 00:53:58,120
Speaker 1: fourteen April, there were about three hundred girls that were

993
00:53:58,160 --> 00:54:03,239
Speaker 1: abducted in Nigeria, Northern Nigeria by terrorists and I was

994
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:07,160
Speaker 1: actually kicking and screaming to a media mogul, a friend

995
00:54:07,200 --> 00:54:09,360
Speaker 1: of mine, who I said, this is completely outrageous. You know,

996
00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:10,719
Speaker 1: the media is not even picking up in the story

997
00:54:10,719 --> 00:54:12,840
Speaker 1: in an aggressive way. And he said, well, what are

998
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:15,279
Speaker 1: you doing about it? And he's a very you know,

999
00:54:15,320 --> 00:54:19,560
Speaker 1: he's a very famous global media person, and he said,

1000
00:54:19,600 --> 00:54:21,520
Speaker 1: were you just sitting here and moaning about why don't

1001
00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:23,160
Speaker 1: you do something, and so I was trying to think

1002
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:24,400
Speaker 1: what could I do that was going to put me,

1003
00:54:24,640 --> 00:54:26,720
Speaker 1: you know, in a little bit of discomfort, but actually

1004
00:54:27,160 --> 00:54:29,360
Speaker 1: try and do something quite positive and constructive. So I

1005
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:32,040
Speaker 1: ended up running the New York Marathon, had a very

1006
00:54:32,080 --> 00:54:35,440
Speaker 1: disastrous time. It was six thirty six, hold and windy.

1007
00:54:35,560 --> 00:54:39,480
Speaker 1: I did finish, and then your first marathon I did,

1008
00:54:39,520 --> 00:54:41,399
Speaker 1: And then I just did the London Marathon a few

1009
00:54:41,400 --> 00:54:44,359
Speaker 1: months So how did that correlate to the girls in uh?

1010
00:54:44,880 --> 00:54:47,880
Speaker 1: Raised money, raised money for the girls UM and you know,

1011
00:54:47,960 --> 00:54:51,319
Speaker 1: really hopefully brought some awareness to today and there's been

1012
00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:54,360
Speaker 1: more and more coverage about that has been But again,

1013
00:54:54,520 --> 00:54:57,040
Speaker 1: you know, as we were talking earlier, sixty five out

1014
00:54:57,080 --> 00:54:59,320
Speaker 1: of a hundred and fifty countries around the world and

1015
00:54:59,440 --> 00:55:02,759
Speaker 1: now UM considered to be high or I'm very high

1016
00:55:02,840 --> 00:55:06,799
Speaker 1: political risk of geopolitical uncertainty. Sixty five out of one

1017
00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:10,000
Speaker 1: and fifty fifty nations in the world are at high

1018
00:55:10,120 --> 00:55:13,480
Speaker 1: risk of political unrest. Yes, exactly, This is according to

1019
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:15,440
Speaker 1: the e i U. So so what does that mean

1020
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 1: in terms of moving forward, is that we've got security risks,

1021
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:20,800
Speaker 1: which means people are less likely to want to invest

1022
00:55:20,800 --> 00:55:22,960
Speaker 1: in these regions. This is a very serious problem for

1023
00:55:23,040 --> 00:55:26,640
Speaker 1: places like the emerging markets where the populations on the

1024
00:55:26,680 --> 00:55:29,120
Speaker 1: age of twenty five, where they need jobs, they need trade,

1025
00:55:29,160 --> 00:55:31,520
Speaker 1: they need investment, and if we're not going to get

1026
00:55:31,520 --> 00:55:34,719
Speaker 1: that because there's so much political volatility, you're creating this

1027
00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:38,080
Speaker 1: sort of cycle where there's lack of investment and therefore

1028
00:55:38,080 --> 00:55:41,960
Speaker 1: you have more populations that are disaffected and they joined

1029
00:55:41,960 --> 00:55:47,920
Speaker 1: these radicals, interrorists, pocal procal um. I'm trying to remember

1030
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:54,520
Speaker 1: North Africa's hotbed of this as we know, but also

1031
00:55:54,600 --> 00:55:56,960
Speaker 1: in the Middle East. So at this point is a

1032
00:55:57,040 --> 00:56:01,040
Speaker 1: huge incentive for developed, wealthy nations like the United States

1033
00:56:01,120 --> 00:56:05,120
Speaker 1: and the UK to try and be more productive in

1034
00:56:05,120 --> 00:56:07,880
Speaker 1: in how they interact with these countries. Yes, absolutely, but

1035
00:56:07,920 --> 00:56:09,840
Speaker 1: I mean no, I think there's also a premium to

1036
00:56:09,880 --> 00:56:13,520
Speaker 1: be made for the old adage of physician heal thyself.

1037
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:16,200
Speaker 1: I think the United States really gets its house in order,

1038
00:56:16,239 --> 00:56:18,480
Speaker 1: it can actually do much more to signal to the

1039
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:22,200
Speaker 1: world what a positive society can look like. So we

1040
00:56:22,239 --> 00:56:24,400
Speaker 1: have to get our house in order. That's a shame

1041
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:27,000
Speaker 1: crazy idea, that's a shame that. No, we won't that

1042
00:56:27,000 --> 00:56:30,840
Speaker 1: that that's the prerequisite. We haven't don't be don't be.

1043
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:34,920
Speaker 1: So let let me go through my last few questions

1044
00:56:34,920 --> 00:56:37,560
Speaker 1: before you run off. So, since you joined the fields

1045
00:56:37,600 --> 00:56:40,320
Speaker 1: of economics, what do you see as the major changes

1046
00:56:40,880 --> 00:56:46,920
Speaker 1: that have taken place within that area of study. Well, clearly,

1047
00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:49,760
Speaker 1: as a macro economist, the big problems that we've been

1048
00:56:49,760 --> 00:56:53,840
Speaker 1: shown to not be able to you know, the truthsayers

1049
00:56:53,880 --> 00:56:55,480
Speaker 1: of the future, right, I mean, we were not able

1050
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:58,279
Speaker 1: to call the financial crisis, some of us were. But

1051
00:56:58,320 --> 00:57:01,000
Speaker 1: I understand what you know. I understand what you're saying

1052
00:57:01,000 --> 00:57:03,440
Speaker 1: about the mac goes back to the science point. It's

1053
00:57:03,480 --> 00:57:05,680
Speaker 1: not a science and people there's are human beings, and

1054
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:07,320
Speaker 1: you know, I think most economists would be sitting in

1055
00:57:07,360 --> 00:57:09,240
Speaker 1: Tahiti if we could. And I think that has probably

1056
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:13,960
Speaker 1: been the biggest mark and probably undermine the profession considerably,

1057
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:15,480
Speaker 1: and it's made people go back and think about what

1058
00:57:15,600 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 1: might be a better way to approach it. There was

1059
00:57:17,760 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 1: a wonderful book, I want to say, in the late

1060
00:57:20,280 --> 00:57:26,120
Speaker 1: nineties called The Fortune Tellers, and it described how people economists, politicians,

1061
00:57:26,560 --> 00:57:29,160
Speaker 1: business people who are all engaged in the act of

1062
00:57:29,200 --> 00:57:32,320
Speaker 1: forecasting the future, and they're all terrible at it. And

1063
00:57:32,360 --> 00:57:35,560
Speaker 1: there's reasons why they're bad. At it. But there's also

1064
00:57:35,640 --> 00:57:38,680
Speaker 1: reasons why they tend to make these forecasts that are

1065
00:57:38,720 --> 00:57:43,440
Speaker 1: attention getting, albeit inaccurate, and that set of incentives are

1066
00:57:43,480 --> 00:57:48,920
Speaker 1: so Um, we're talking about various career options for people

1067
00:57:49,040 --> 00:57:52,040
Speaker 1: under twenty five. What sort of career advice do you

1068
00:57:52,080 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 1: give to millennials who are just starting out recent college graduates?

1069
00:57:56,360 --> 00:57:59,040
Speaker 1: What would you advise them? So? I think that two things.

1070
00:57:59,600 --> 00:58:02,560
Speaker 1: One is you just absolutely have to get out there

1071
00:58:02,560 --> 00:58:04,560
Speaker 1: and buy that. I mean, don't just spend your time

1072
00:58:04,600 --> 00:58:07,400
Speaker 1: in the little environment and community that you live. You've

1073
00:58:07,440 --> 00:58:10,320
Speaker 1: got to travel. The world is living an amazing time

1074
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:15,160
Speaker 1: where the costs relative costs of travel have come crashing down. Um,

1075
00:58:15,280 --> 00:58:17,760
Speaker 1: there's just a world out there that is really important

1076
00:58:17,800 --> 00:58:20,240
Speaker 1: for you to experience firsthand. But the other thing is

1077
00:58:20,240 --> 00:58:22,880
Speaker 1: that you should not underestimate the importance and the need

1078
00:58:22,920 --> 00:58:25,360
Speaker 1: for hard work. I think that there is a little

1079
00:58:25,400 --> 00:58:28,720
Speaker 1: bit of this view that perhaps things don't you don't

1080
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:32,160
Speaker 1: require the investment of time and energy and you know,

1081
00:58:32,240 --> 00:58:35,640
Speaker 1: really getting things wrong, and that experience I think should

1082
00:58:35,640 --> 00:58:38,120
Speaker 1: not be missed by millennials. How much time do we

1083
00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:41,760
Speaker 1: have left? Can I keep here for another hour? What?

1084
00:58:41,760 --> 00:58:46,080
Speaker 1: What's the word? Five minutes? I got the last two questions,

1085
00:58:46,880 --> 00:58:50,080
Speaker 1: all right, So alright, so we'll make it quick. So

1086
00:58:50,080 --> 00:58:52,760
Speaker 1: so when we went to launch, so you and I

1087
00:58:53,200 --> 00:58:55,360
Speaker 1: of the four of us who are actually here today,

1088
00:58:55,680 --> 00:58:58,160
Speaker 1: went to launch. One of the things we were discussing

1089
00:58:58,800 --> 00:59:02,880
Speaker 1: was what was like being an African woman working in

1090
00:59:02,920 --> 00:59:08,360
Speaker 1: a corporate environment at at places like Barclays and sab Miller.

1091
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:11,840
Speaker 1: And I said, you know, from my perspective, I'm a

1092
00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:15,520
Speaker 1: white male working in New York as and I'm would

1093
00:59:15,560 --> 00:59:20,200
Speaker 1: have to call myself a New York progressive Jewish liberal

1094
00:59:20,360 --> 00:59:23,880
Speaker 1: socialist summer camps that Holdwoody Allen line of jokes. But

1095
00:59:23,960 --> 00:59:28,960
Speaker 1: it's hard for someone like me to imagine the obstacles

1096
00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:32,360
Speaker 1: that are are in a path. If somebody like yourself

1097
00:59:32,680 --> 00:59:35,880
Speaker 1: coming out of Zambia, how do you adapt to that?

1098
00:59:35,960 --> 00:59:39,919
Speaker 1: What sort of challenges were in your path? And were

1099
00:59:39,960 --> 00:59:43,280
Speaker 1: they not really challenges? Were there just something that you said, oh,

1100
00:59:43,360 --> 00:59:47,680
Speaker 1: this is just another hurdle to overcome. Well, there clearly

1101
00:59:47,680 --> 00:59:50,680
Speaker 1: aren't a lot of challenges. And I've been very lucky

1102
00:59:50,760 --> 00:59:54,560
Speaker 1: because many people, not people who were necessary from Africa

1103
00:59:54,640 --> 00:59:57,680
Speaker 1: or black or women or from Zambia, et cetera, have

1104
00:59:57,760 --> 01:00:00,760
Speaker 1: been very supportive in fact, many people don't look like

1105
01:00:00,800 --> 01:00:03,440
Speaker 1: me at all who have given me an opportunity to

1106
01:00:03,760 --> 01:00:06,280
Speaker 1: take a chance. Having said that that, there was an

1107
01:00:06,280 --> 01:00:09,440
Speaker 1: onus on me to also perform when I got those opportunities.

1108
01:00:09,520 --> 01:00:12,360
Speaker 1: And so I think it's really important for for all

1109
01:00:12,400 --> 01:00:14,800
Speaker 1: of us to understand wherever we come from, by the way,

1110
01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:18,439
Speaker 1: to understand that the world is um is worse off

1111
01:00:18,800 --> 01:00:22,959
Speaker 1: by not having the perspective and the experiences of people

1112
01:00:23,000 --> 01:00:26,080
Speaker 1: who don't necessarily look like us. And you know, it's

1113
01:00:26,280 --> 01:00:29,760
Speaker 1: it's very it's it's a great disadvantage to our societies

1114
01:00:29,880 --> 01:00:33,600
Speaker 1: um to assume that our little countery of people know

1115
01:00:33,760 --> 01:00:35,920
Speaker 1: how things should be and how they are, because I

1116
01:00:35,960 --> 01:00:38,400
Speaker 1: think that ultimately, in terms of trying to solve the

1117
01:00:38,440 --> 01:00:41,960
Speaker 1: most intractable problems of the world, whether it's growth, poverty,

1118
01:00:41,960 --> 01:00:46,520
Speaker 1: climate change, et cetera, we're going to need many different minds,

1119
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:51,200
Speaker 1: many different perspectives, and really shouldn't matter what the gender origin, races.

1120
01:00:51,320 --> 01:00:56,000
Speaker 1: And if societies and institutions recognize that they are the disadvantage,

1121
01:00:56,000 --> 01:00:59,240
Speaker 1: I think that they will um be much more positive

1122
01:00:59,240 --> 01:01:02,200
Speaker 1: about attracting. So so want to related note, you're in

1123
01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:04,480
Speaker 1: London half the time, you're in New York after time.

1124
01:01:04,560 --> 01:01:07,840
Speaker 1: How how do these issues differ in the UK and

1125
01:01:07,880 --> 01:01:11,640
Speaker 1: the US. Well, I wouldn't. I think obviously in the

1126
01:01:11,680 --> 01:01:14,560
Speaker 1: place like the United States, UM, there has been a

1127
01:01:14,600 --> 01:01:19,600
Speaker 1: considerable improvement in participation of people from different genders, people

1128
01:01:19,600 --> 01:01:21,600
Speaker 1: from different races. I mean, I was just looking at

1129
01:01:21,640 --> 01:01:24,160
Speaker 1: some data on the number of women who are CEO

1130
01:01:24,360 --> 01:01:27,320
Speaker 1: s UM in Fortune five companies. Of course it's not

1131
01:01:27,600 --> 01:01:30,680
Speaker 1: you know, anywhere we don't like. It increased over the

1132
01:01:30,760 --> 01:01:32,600
Speaker 1: last years, and I think it's very important that we

1133
01:01:32,840 --> 01:01:35,840
Speaker 1: are happy and celebrate the improvement. We don't think it's again,

1134
01:01:35,880 --> 01:01:39,280
Speaker 1: it's not a permanent equilibrium. It's a trans transition, and

1135
01:01:39,400 --> 01:01:42,400
Speaker 1: we want to see more Mary Barras and Meg Whitman's

1136
01:01:42,440 --> 01:01:44,880
Speaker 1: and et cetera around And I think that that the

1137
01:01:44,960 --> 01:01:47,440
Speaker 1: trend is in the right direction. UM. But this is

1138
01:01:47,480 --> 01:01:51,040
Speaker 1: not about a favor UM. We have shareholders who expect returns,

1139
01:01:51,120 --> 01:01:55,680
Speaker 1: we have societies that expect performance, and UM to the

1140
01:01:55,720 --> 01:01:59,080
Speaker 1: extent that we can really impress upon societies that we

1141
01:01:59,160 --> 01:02:01,680
Speaker 1: want to see more of the diversity, whether it's a

1142
01:02:01,760 --> 01:02:05,400
Speaker 1: race and gender, et cetera. Even age, I might point out,

1143
01:02:05,760 --> 01:02:07,920
Speaker 1: these are all very big aspects of you know, our

1144
01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:11,920
Speaker 1: societies should draw on those those talants. And my final question,

1145
01:02:12,600 --> 01:02:15,800
Speaker 1: what do you know today about the world of economics

1146
01:02:15,920 --> 01:02:19,160
Speaker 1: or business that you wish you knew twenty years ago

1147
01:02:19,240 --> 01:02:22,120
Speaker 1: when you were first starting out. There are no right

1148
01:02:22,320 --> 01:02:27,720
Speaker 1: answers and anything is possible. Anything is possible. That's fascinating. Well,

1149
01:02:27,840 --> 01:02:30,720
Speaker 1: Den Pisa, I know you were running off to lecture

1150
01:02:30,800 --> 01:02:34,760
Speaker 1: Barack Obama about foreign policy, so thank you so much

1151
01:02:34,800 --> 01:02:37,840
Speaker 1: for being so generous with your time. This was really

1152
01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:41,640
Speaker 1: both fascinating and wonderful. I've been speaking with Dnbisa Moyo.

1153
01:02:41,800 --> 01:02:46,880
Speaker 1: She's a global economist and consultant. If you enjoy this conversation,

1154
01:02:47,280 --> 01:02:49,240
Speaker 1: be sure and look up an inch or down an

1155
01:02:49,240 --> 01:02:53,640
Speaker 1: inch on Apple iTunes and you could see all of

1156
01:02:53,760 --> 01:02:57,040
Speaker 1: our previous conversations. By the way, you are the fifty

1157
01:02:57,280 --> 01:03:01,880
Speaker 1: second UM interview. So this is one year anniversary, so

1158
01:03:02,040 --> 01:03:05,440
Speaker 1: thank you so much for making this so special. I

1159
01:03:05,440 --> 01:03:09,720
Speaker 1: want to say thank you too, Matt, my engineer, Charlie

1160
01:03:09,720 --> 01:03:12,800
Speaker 1: our producer. You've been listening to Masters in Business on

1161
01:03:12,960 --> 01:03:13,920
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.