WEBVTT - The Top 10 Dynasty Risers and Fallers + The All-Dynasty Risers Team (Ep. 912) 0:00:05.680 --> 0:00:06.600 Hello, everybody. 0:00:06.640 --> 0:00:10.720 Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Baseball Podcast. I am Ryan Warmley, 0:00:10.800 --> 0:00:12.520 joined by Chris Wels. 0:00:12.840 --> 0:00:14.000 It is still in November. 0:00:14.080 --> 0:00:17.239 We are very much in football mode right now, but 0:00:17.840 --> 0:00:20.280 we are also thinking about baseball. We've had some awards 0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:22.959 announcements coming out lately. We are just a couple of 0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:25.479 weeks away, Welsh from the Winter Meetings, which I have 0:00:25.840 --> 0:00:27.920 very fond memories growing up as just one of the 0:00:27.920 --> 0:00:30.040 most fun weeks of the year and just kind of 0:00:30.160 --> 0:00:31.680 following all the twists and turns. 0:00:31.720 --> 0:00:33.199 I remember there was one year of the Orioles. 0:00:33.280 --> 0:00:35.960 We're talking to Prince Fielder when I was in college, 0:00:36.000 --> 0:00:38.360 and it was really exciting imagining, you know, all the 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:40.680 fun transactions we could see. So we are, you know, 0:00:40.760 --> 0:00:43.080 not as far away as you might think from some 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:46.960 real fantasy baseball discussion. We are bringing you, folks, some 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:50.280 fantasy baseball podcasts in the offseason. Here kind of tied 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:53.360 us over before we really dive deep in January. You've 0:00:53.360 --> 0:00:55.200 been doing a couple of these shows already well with 0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:58.480 Joe Alrico some other short form videos, and we decided 0:00:58.480 --> 0:00:59.960 to get you and me together here to talk about 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:02.040 some dynasty risers and Follers. 0:01:02.600 --> 0:01:05.399 Yeah, I'm also baseball. We're in football mode, but I'm 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:07.959 always in baseball. Most people know, like the Arizona Fall 0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:10.319 League just ended, so I'm dealing with this. This is 0:01:10.360 --> 0:01:14.000 my seasonal depression because then baseball actually just ended for me. 0:01:14.400 --> 0:01:17.240 But you know, from a dynasty perspective, watching a bunch 0:01:17.280 --> 0:01:19.759 of top prospects that are going to have some dynasty 0:01:20.200 --> 0:01:22.840 impact here, and I'm excited to do this, and we're 0:01:22.880 --> 0:01:24.679 doing more baseball than we've ever done. And you know, 0:01:24.720 --> 0:01:28.280 funny you mentioned the Winter meetings. In my previous life, 0:01:28.360 --> 0:01:31.119 I had a job, a corporate job that the hotel 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:34.120 next to it was the hotel that players basketball and 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:35.920 baseball players would go to, and they had the winter 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:38.399 meetings here in Arizona, and they would go at that 0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:40.600 hotel for one or two of the years. I want 0:01:40.640 --> 0:01:43.040 to say when I was at that company, and I remember, 0:01:43.360 --> 0:01:46.160 you would if you went down, you would just see guys. 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:48.440 You would see just owners and you would see players. 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:52.000 I remember Brian Wilson famously, the big bearded closer for 0:01:52.080 --> 0:01:54.200 the Giants. It was like a hundred I mean, I 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:55.880 guess this wasn't Winter meetings, but it was one hundred 0:01:55.880 --> 0:01:57.919 and ten him walking around with you know, with the 0:01:57.960 --> 0:02:00.680 shirt out into jeans and doing all that. But the 0:02:00.720 --> 0:02:03.720 winter meetings, these guys all walking around felt very intimate 0:02:03.760 --> 0:02:05.320 in that that you got to, I got to almost 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:07.040 be a part of it. But we're gonna have a 0:02:07.080 --> 0:02:10.680 bunch of moves. All of this and the transactional changes 0:02:10.720 --> 0:02:14.400 from teams to player values is pretty exciting. And you 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:17.360 know what we say, it's only November and baseball is 0:02:17.360 --> 0:02:19.640 still a little bit of ways. It's already going. Drafts 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:21.919 are going, NFBC is going. I'm excited to do it, 0:02:21.960 --> 0:02:24.480 and I'm very excited to talk dynasty with you. 0:02:24.919 --> 0:02:26.200 Yeah, I love dynasty. 0:02:26.919 --> 0:02:30.840 This is the fantasy sport that I most enjoy, the 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:35.040 dynasty keeper league type of format. You know, I do 0:02:35.280 --> 0:02:37.839 play in some of those for like college basketball even 0:02:37.880 --> 0:02:40.919 but football obviously, but baseball is really where, I mean, 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:43.720 the prospects are just so much of a bigger part 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:46.640 of the experience of playing fantasy baseball than you know, 0:02:46.760 --> 0:02:49.239 there's not minor leagues for football, right it's just college 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:52.200 guys coming in, So it's a different experience doing dynasty 0:02:52.200 --> 0:02:52.640 in baseball. 0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:54.119 That's one of the reasons why this is the show. 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:55.480 I wanted to hop on with you. 0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:58.400 I love talking through the long term value and risers 0:02:58.480 --> 0:02:59.919 and followers in. 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:00.880 Sort of format. 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:03.440 Let's dive right in. We're gonna do risers. We'll go 0:03:03.480 --> 0:03:05.600 five to one that we'll give you some followers five 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:07.880 to one. These are gonna be Welsh's picks, so we'll 0:03:08.000 --> 0:03:09.919 just kind of kind of talk them out and why 0:03:10.000 --> 0:03:11.600 we feel the way we feel about them. Then at 0:03:11.600 --> 0:03:13.080 the end of the show, we're gonna give an all 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:15.560 Dynasty riser team. I thought that would be a fun, 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:17.480 quick little thing at the end where we give you 0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:20.320 one guy at each position who kind of builds out 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:22.240 the team of guys that are rising down before we 0:03:22.280 --> 0:03:24.280 dive in, just to give kind of the a framework 0:03:24.280 --> 0:03:25.239 of the episode for people. 0:03:25.560 --> 0:03:27.520 Are you viewing these and these are the names you 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:28.040 put together. 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:31.080 Are you viewing them as guys who rose the most 0:03:31.200 --> 0:03:34.560 last year or guys who you think are poised to 0:03:34.720 --> 0:03:36.800 rise the most this year, or some kind of in 0:03:36.840 --> 0:03:39.640 the in between, just like in the middle of rising 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:41.760 right now and then following when we get to that segment. 0:03:41.920 --> 0:03:45.120 That's a great question. So I view these as the 0:03:45.240 --> 0:03:48.240 big change year over year for people to understand we 0:03:48.320 --> 0:03:51.480 kind of did something similar in the redraft of Hey, 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:54.720 you know, familiarize yourself. These are players last year that 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:57.680 have really changed their rank into upcoming years drafts. These 0:03:57.720 --> 0:04:02.040 are players that they're dynasty value year over year has 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:04.480 had a major change. And you know that can come 0:04:04.560 --> 0:04:07.080 from players that you know, it's really difficult with prospects 0:04:07.080 --> 0:04:10.160 and young guys that it's like younger players are going 0:04:10.200 --> 0:04:12.800 to rank a lot higher in Dynasty just in general. 0:04:12.880 --> 0:04:15.320 But even some of these young guys have just taken 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:19.240 another step in their value. So again there's a bigger, 0:04:19.320 --> 0:04:22.960 longer question about these players breaking out, but no, this 0:04:23.120 --> 0:04:26.480 is going to be the biggest changers of their dynasty 0:04:26.560 --> 0:04:28.400 value to start last year if you were starting a 0:04:28.400 --> 0:04:30.680 fresh one to this year. And the same thing with 0:04:30.720 --> 0:04:33.760 the guys that are falling. Those are players that ranked 0:04:33.960 --> 0:04:36.919 probably from anywhere from a decent amount to quite a 0:04:36.920 --> 0:04:40.200 bit higher last season and then due to this most 0:04:40.240 --> 0:04:42.680 recent season age things we're going to talk about have 0:04:42.839 --> 0:04:45.839 fallen in the ranks. Whether that is you guys restarting 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:48.000 and starting up a new Dynasty draft, which I highly 0:04:48.000 --> 0:04:50.320 suggest if you have not played Dynasty like Worm is 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:53.480 saying you should, I think it brings life even more 0:04:53.480 --> 0:04:56.200 to fantasy baseball, if ever you've been fringy about it. 0:04:56.400 --> 0:04:58.960 But whether you're starting up or you want to understand 0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:02.200 value because in the off season you're gonna get the Hawks, 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:04.240 the Sharks are gonna be circling around trying to get 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:06.680 your players. Hey, you know what you should trade me? 0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:09.240 Jackson Cheerio. He was pretty good, right, but he only 0:05:09.279 --> 0:05:11.160 had a DODA. They're gonna be circling, So you want 0:05:11.160 --> 0:05:13.880 to understand the values, and that'll be That's my approach 0:05:13.960 --> 0:05:15.200 to this conversation. 0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:18.440 My best, just quickly, I don't know my best dynasty league. 0:05:18.480 --> 0:05:20.560 It's more of like a deep keeper league. You keep fourteen, 0:05:20.680 --> 0:05:23.320 you know, at cost my best one of those that 0:05:23.360 --> 0:05:25.559 I'm in, I have a one dollar Bobby Witt Junior, 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:28.920 a one dollar Gunner Henderson, and a one dollar Jackson Cheerio. 0:05:29.080 --> 0:05:33.479 So I am feeling darn good about that league. Yeah, 0:05:33.480 --> 0:05:36.120 I think I only play one redraft league a year. Honestly, 0:05:36.160 --> 0:05:39.200 it's the work league. Like the rest I too. I 0:05:39.240 --> 0:05:40.919 mean sometimes I'll do like some of the contest stuff, 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:42.560 but like in terms of just like an annual league 0:05:42.600 --> 0:05:44.559 with the same kind of friends, a group of people 0:05:44.560 --> 0:05:46.840 it's I so largely do dynasty now. 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:48.200 I just I just really prefer it. 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:50.160 Yeah, And it's funny you say that because there's a 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:52.479 couple there's like the you know, you maybe played a 0:05:52.480 --> 0:05:54.400 long time and you might have this monster. I've had 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:55.800 a couple of those where it's like, you know your 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:57.640 major guide one is like Vlad and I had a 0:05:57.720 --> 0:05:59.719 Kunya and all those build ups, and then you have 0:05:59.800 --> 0:06:03.160 those teams that you've been working on. Mutual friend friend 0:06:03.160 --> 0:06:05.760 of the show Scott White from CBS, He's got this 0:06:05.880 --> 0:06:08.240 the long term Scott White Dynasty leagues that I took 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:11.120 over three or four years ago to twenty fourteen league. 0:06:11.400 --> 0:06:14.239 I'm going into this year finally I drafted Paul Skeins, 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:17.320 I got Corbyn Carroll, I got Bobby Witt, I got Otani. 0:06:17.440 --> 0:06:19.839 I'm finally ready to compete and Skeens is kind of 0:06:19.839 --> 0:06:21.760 the big piece to it in a points league. So 0:06:22.120 --> 0:06:24.919 building up and finally being ready to go off of 0:06:24.960 --> 0:06:27.640 that dynasty is very rewarding. But also seeing the fruits 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:29.480 of your labor four or five years in being like, 0:06:29.600 --> 0:06:32.120 look at those values. That's what it's all about. 0:06:32.320 --> 0:06:34.479 We are going to get to some Paul Skeens discussion 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:37.480 later on, perhaps unsurprisingly, let's start off with a prospect though, 0:06:37.760 --> 0:06:41.480 Roman Anthony in the Miners last season two ninety one, 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:44.599 three ninety six, four ninety eight slash line, so almost 0:06:44.720 --> 0:06:46.920 nine hundred on the ops there just a little bit 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:50.000 under eighteen home runs, twenty one stolen bases, so kind 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:52.120 of one of those dual threat guys. We'll start next 0:06:52.120 --> 0:06:55.960 season at twenty years old. What led him to being 0:06:55.960 --> 0:06:57.279 on this list as a prospect? 0:06:57.279 --> 0:07:00.000 For you, Welsh, So, I think that's like the big 0:07:00.360 --> 0:07:04.960 question in general about and in the evaluation of dynasty, 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:08.320 specifically baseball, It's like, how do we fit in the 0:07:08.360 --> 0:07:11.240 prospects because, like you said, there really isn't necessarily that 0:07:11.320 --> 0:07:14.040 in other sport dynasty leagues for the most part, it's 0:07:14.080 --> 0:07:16.440 like you can just throw the rookies in, you can 0:07:16.480 --> 0:07:18.440 throw them up high, and there's usually maybe a year 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:21.160 transitional period. That's not the case here. You know, you 0:07:21.200 --> 0:07:24.720 can have guys some people have like Sebastian Walcott who's 0:07:24.760 --> 0:07:28.560 with the Texas Rangers, super young guy, or Leo de Vreese, 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:31.560 Leo DeVries with the Padres just turned eighteen years old. 0:07:31.720 --> 0:07:33.920 Those guys could be top fifty in some dynasty leagues, 0:07:33.960 --> 0:07:35.560 those guys might not play for a couple of years. 0:07:35.600 --> 0:07:39.360 So it's a different world. So with that, I also 0:07:39.400 --> 0:07:44.200 think the prospect rank world is not in agreement, and 0:07:44.240 --> 0:07:46.560 maybe more than it's ever been in a singular year. 0:07:46.600 --> 0:07:48.120 And what I mean is, I think you check ten 0:07:48.120 --> 0:07:51.320 different people that rank prospects, different number one probably in 0:07:51.400 --> 0:07:54.000 seven of those ten, probably a different number two. So 0:07:54.040 --> 0:07:55.560 there's this big well. 0:07:55.400 --> 0:07:57.720 You know why, it's because there's finally not an obvious 0:07:57.760 --> 0:07:59.320 oriole sitting there at number one. 0:08:00.480 --> 0:08:01.640 You're not wrong, You're not right. 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:02.640 I'm lovisio. 0:08:02.720 --> 0:08:05.360 But yeah, the last few years, Okay, well it's clearly gutter, 0:08:05.440 --> 0:08:06.920 it's clearly Jackson Holiday. 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:08.040 We finally don't have that. 0:08:08.160 --> 0:08:10.240 This year, we don't and you're looking for those big 0:08:10.240 --> 0:08:12.280 threats guys. So I'm building this all to get to 0:08:12.280 --> 0:08:16.360 the prospect to say that when you look at prospect rankings, 0:08:16.400 --> 0:08:19.400 I think near the top, Jason Domingez, Dylan Cruz, those 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:21.840 guys have been there, whether they're one and two on 0:08:21.880 --> 0:08:24.360 a list or four and five, they were on dynasty 0:08:24.440 --> 0:08:27.440 rank lists already pretty high. A majority of the guys 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:29.880 of coming off the Walker Jenkins was another one. So 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:34.240 we come to a player that rose dramatically in prospect 0:08:34.280 --> 0:08:37.360 rankings this year and by some outlets is the number 0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:40.640 one prospect in baseball. It's Roman Anthony. So Roman Anthony 0:08:40.840 --> 0:08:43.880 we've got to talk about from a dynasty perspective, because again, 0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:47.079 whether he is number one or he's inside my top five, 0:08:47.120 --> 0:08:49.600 he's not my number one overall prospect. The guy hit 0:08:49.640 --> 0:08:53.400 triple A. The guy put up a monster, monster season. 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:56.040 Low k rate in triple A was under twenty percent, 0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:58.640 was around eighteen percent. He ran around twenty five percent 0:08:58.720 --> 0:09:03.600 in double A. Projected Steamer numbers. Steamer numbers are already 0:09:03.600 --> 0:09:06.200 out there. So after he just went out and hit 0:09:06.280 --> 0:09:10.120 eighteen homers, still twenty one bases. Both increases. He's increased, 0:09:10.200 --> 0:09:13.440 you know, pretty much every year he's been playing. Steamer 0:09:13.760 --> 0:09:17.760 has him for a light fifty ish games. But if 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:20.600 we were to take Steamer's projections, which are usually relatively 0:09:20.600 --> 0:09:23.160 low on prospects, the one hundred and sixty two game 0:09:23.240 --> 0:09:28.560 pace is roughly twenty fifteen eighteen fifteen, right in that 0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:30.240 general range. So I just want to give you kind 0:09:30.240 --> 0:09:33.480 of a perspective of where that's at. Now. They've got 0:09:33.960 --> 0:09:37.240 a quadrant of players that are in TRIPAA. They've got 0:09:37.280 --> 0:09:41.000 Marcelo Mayer, They've got Christian Campbell, Kyle Teal, and Roman Anthony. 0:09:41.160 --> 0:09:42.920 All of those guys are on the precipice of coming 0:09:42.960 --> 0:09:46.480 to the majors. Maybe a couple of them get moved, 0:09:47.200 --> 0:09:49.680 it won't be Roman Anthony. I think Roman Anthony is 0:09:49.720 --> 0:09:53.160 the key piece to this team. Really good patients, huge 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:56.280 big hard hit numbers. Will have to continue to monitor, 0:09:56.320 --> 0:09:58.480 like where the contact stuff goes as we get in, 0:09:58.559 --> 0:10:00.800 but it's big hard hit numbers. This team loves him, 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:03.480 and there's a legit chance some of the trade options 0:10:03.480 --> 0:10:05.079 that this team has talked about in the off season, 0:10:05.160 --> 0:10:07.400 our guy's like Willie or Brady to open up spots. 0:10:07.679 --> 0:10:10.839 So we circle it all back to say, prospects are 0:10:10.920 --> 0:10:14.280 going to shine and jump out to people on Dynasty lists, 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:17.160 and the top two at least in my world, Dylan 0:10:17.200 --> 0:10:19.320 Cruise and Jason Dominguez are already in the majors. So 0:10:19.440 --> 0:10:21.760 Roman Anthony is one that is going to fly out 0:10:21.840 --> 0:10:24.560 to you. I've got him inside my top seventy five. 0:10:24.800 --> 0:10:26.720 He has a legit shot to be up this season 0:10:26.800 --> 0:10:30.800 and beat Steamer expectations of games played. Could easily hit 0:10:30.880 --> 0:10:33.560 one hundred and more or maybe we get shocked because 0:10:33.559 --> 0:10:35.920 he hit triple A and this team is open to 0:10:35.920 --> 0:10:38.080 putting him in the majors when we talk about the 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:40.760 compensatory pick. So I say all of this to say 0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:43.960 from a rank dynasty perspective, because he moved up so 0:10:44.120 --> 0:10:47.000 much on everybody's prospect list and has vaulted into the 0:10:47.040 --> 0:10:49.840 number one spot. He's going to rank somewhere between probably 0:10:50.520 --> 0:10:54.760 thirty five and eighty five on any dynasty list out there. 0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:57.880 And he's a super young triple A outfielder who does 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:00.560 not have everything locked in, but is a big future 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:03.560 of the game. And that's a massive dynasty change just 0:11:03.640 --> 0:11:05.719 kind of across the landscape compared to the rest of 0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:06.960 the prospects that are out there. 0:11:07.160 --> 0:11:10.439 Something like round five, round six in a startup, is 0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:12.240 that where you'd be eyeing to take him. 0:11:12.440 --> 0:11:15.000 Yeah. So there's also a big conversation about, like how 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:17.679 do you treat dynasty. Are you a win now? Are 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:19.600 you a middle like I'm going to kind of take 0:11:19.640 --> 0:11:21.439 pieces of everything or are you going to be I'm 0:11:21.440 --> 0:11:23.280 playing for the future. If you were playing for the future, 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:25.480 Roman Anthony might be a third or fourth round pick 0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:28.400 in dynasty. If you're just kind of median across the board, 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:30.320 I would say, like you kind of nailed that. Like 0:11:30.320 --> 0:11:31.680 I said, if I have him in the seventies and 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:34.960 it's a fifteen team league, fourth, fifth, sixth round somewhere 0:11:34.960 --> 0:11:36.640 in there, it's a good future play. 0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:39.680 Let's go to some of our major league players here 0:11:40.000 --> 0:11:43.440 who have risen up. Mark Ventas the Mets twenty seven 0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:45.760 home runs in one hundred and eleven games, won't turn 0:11:45.800 --> 0:11:48.800 twenty five until next month. Eight thirty seven ops, one 0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:52.040 thirty five ops plus in twenty twenty four, just like 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:56.160 an awesome breakout season. I did not see coming going 0:11:56.200 --> 0:11:59.079 into the twenty twenty four and now is somebody I'll 0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:00.880 be a lot more excited to drive twenty twenty five. 0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:03.160 As far as the dynasty ranking goes, where do you 0:12:03.200 --> 0:12:03.920 have him? 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:06.200 So yeah, I completely agree with you too. By the way, 0:12:06.200 --> 0:12:08.160 everyone thought this was going to be Brett Batty. Brett 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:09.560 Batty was going to be the one, like, hey, he's 0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:11.840 going to play a whole bunch, and Venta's had some 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:14.840 big swing and misissues and he still does. So I 0:12:14.920 --> 0:12:17.480 have Vienta's inside my top one hundred. I've actually got 0:12:17.520 --> 0:12:20.839 Roman anthe a little bit higher. Totally could understand if 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:23.840 someone's like, hey, that's under selling. Look at that power. 0:12:23.880 --> 0:12:27.120 He's thirty plus home run projected every single season. Not 0:12:27.160 --> 0:12:29.800 going to argue there. I think he's somewhere in that 0:12:29.840 --> 0:12:32.280 same general like seventy five to one hundred. I've got 0:12:32.360 --> 0:12:35.200 him specifically right at ninety one. Right now. What I 0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:38.000 really love he hits lefties and righty's well, at least 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:42.000 he did this past season. A phenomenal fourteen point one 0:12:42.040 --> 0:12:44.800 percent barrel percentage and a forty six percent hard hit rate, 0:12:45.000 --> 0:12:48.800 something I'm hyper focused on, especially impactful hitters. I'm always 0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:51.559 going to look at barrel percentage and I'm going to 0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:53.679 look at hard hit numbers because if you're barreling up 0:12:53.679 --> 0:12:56.079 the ball, hitting that on that really good spot and 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:59.000 you've got good hard hit whether you are a poll 0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:02.439 Happy or you're Paul Goldsmith type of contact hitter, good 0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:05.439 things are gonna happen. So those are two really great recipes, 0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:08.040 and it played itself out in Mark Vianto's last year. 0:13:08.320 --> 0:13:12.280 My worries though almost a thirty percent k rate that 0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:16.000 is paired with a forty percent with rate against any 0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:19.800 forty plus percent against any non fastball, So fastballs he 0:13:19.800 --> 0:13:24.040 did his work with. Everything else he struggled with, and 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:26.560 that goes with a thirty two percent chase rate. So 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:29.400 when teams are readjusting to him this year, you're going 0:13:29.440 --> 0:13:32.000 to probably see more breaking pitches. They're gonna want him 0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:34.120 to chase because he's got a high chase rate, and 0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:37.120 if it's not a fastball, he struggles. So that to 0:13:37.240 --> 0:13:40.000 me mitigates maybe some of the batting average. It doesn't 0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:43.160 mitigate the power because I think it's pure, great raw power, 0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:46.280 and those are the things that hold me back from saying, hey, 0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:48.400 this is a top fifty prospect, because guess what if 0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:52.160 he dramatically improves on you know, his strikeout rate and 0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:55.040 hits for a higher average, it's kind of like Pete 0:13:55.040 --> 0:13:57.839 Alonso Like, maybe it's not as dramatic as of power, 0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:00.280 but it's kind of Pete Alonzo ish. So I think 0:14:00.320 --> 0:14:03.160 there is more up there, but I think there's some volatility. 0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:07.160 Projections early Steamer projections two forty two with thirty two homers, 0:14:07.160 --> 0:14:10.240 that's phenomenal. That's an easy top one hundred. Some might 0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:13.240 even take him top fifty. But that's a huge dramatic 0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:14.880 year over year change because I think a lot of 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:17.320 people were writing Vano's off last year because of the 0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:21.120 Wiff issues, but he just turned really quality it bats 0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:24.880 into big power and the projected number ce it carrying. 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:27.480 Over so just quickly because he's not on our list 0:14:27.560 --> 0:14:31.320 for the followers. What does Vanto's establishing himself as like 0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:33.040 the third basement of the future for the Mets? What 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:34.840 does that do to Brett Batty in your opinion in 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:36.200 terms of dynasty. 0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:37.880 Well, I think it really hurt. I think it makes 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:39.440 Brett Bady a trade target. 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:40.720 Do you think he'll get traded? 0:14:41.480 --> 0:14:43.840 I think there's a high possibility. But here's a caveat. 0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:45.800 I'm going to throw it at you. Peter Alans a 0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:48.240 free agent. If ped Alonso doesn't resign, Mark Vanto's is 0:14:48.240 --> 0:14:51.880 the first basement of its future. Yeah, I personally kind 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:55.000 of think that's where they want v Into's long term. 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:57.600 And it's not to say that ped Alans is not 0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:01.360 going to resign. I think, no matter what Alonso resigns 0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:04.320 or doesn't resign, I think Brett Batty is up as 0:15:04.360 --> 0:15:07.720 a trade, you know, potential target. And let's say they 0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:09.560 go and sign one Soto, They're not gonna do much 0:15:09.560 --> 0:15:11.640 else in free agency, So what's the best course of action. 0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:16.160 Take those prospect assets, go and take the Luisan Helicunyaz, 0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:18.320 take the Brett Baties, Maybe take some of those young 0:15:18.360 --> 0:15:22.200 pitchers Brennan Sprott or Blake Tidwell, and you know, make 0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:24.600 some impactful trades to pair with a guy like Sodo 0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:26.760 if they do that. So I think either way, Batty 0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:29.200 is kind of on the way out. 0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:31.480 Welsh, there was one name when you sent me this 0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:34.320 list that I was kind of confused by. I raised 0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:37.720 my eyebrows at Junior Cameronaro, Who's the next guy on 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:40.240 this list? And that was he was the biggest reason 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:42.960 why I wanted to ask kind of what the framework 0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:45.480 of these players were where you're kind of looking at 0:15:45.520 --> 0:15:48.720 what we saw last year versus the future. Because Caminara 0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:52.240 was obviously a very highly touted prospect going into last season, 0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:54.680 I drafted to stash him in a couple of re 0:15:54.880 --> 0:15:57.240 draft leagues, and you know, it may or might not 0:15:57.320 --> 0:16:01.080 have panned out in those leagues. Obviously, six on runs 0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:03.960 two forty eight, two ninety nine, four twenty four slash 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:06.080 line in just forty three games at the big league level, 0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:08.000 last year, only twenty one years old. I'm not saying 0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:10.520 we're giving up on him as a prospect anywhere anywhere. 0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:10.560 Close to that. 0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:12.840 But I was surprised to see him list it as 0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:15.360 a riser because I thought he was pretty highly tatted 0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:18.600 already comes in, didn't exactly set the world on fire, 0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:20.840 and now you have him as one of your biggest risers. 0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:23.400 So can you kind of explain that decision for us? 0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:27.000 Yeah, I think this was like the toughest one. There 0:16:27.000 --> 0:16:29.080 are multiple players we could have put in this, like 0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:30.960 and not that I was trying to like theme out 0:16:31.000 --> 0:16:32.480 any of the picks, you know, like let's have this 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:34.520 type of guy and this type of guy, but you know, 0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:37.520 you do look and you go, Okay, Jackson Churio phenomenal 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:41.600 rookie year, let's go. But he was already ranked really high. 0:16:41.760 --> 0:16:44.640 Jackson Merrill was Actually that would be a decent one 0:16:44.800 --> 0:16:46.560 talked about on the Rejob Show. Would have been a 0:16:46.600 --> 0:16:50.000 decent one to do as well. Jackson Holiday probably could 0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:51.960 have almost been in one of those fallers, but I 0:16:52.000 --> 0:16:54.520 think he kind of maintained So here's the reason I 0:16:54.560 --> 0:16:57.680 decided to do it. So I do think that Camonaro 0:16:57.920 --> 0:17:01.960 for the most part held you know, relative to last year, 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:04.720 like maybe he was he actually might have been as 0:17:04.840 --> 0:17:07.040 high as he is ranked right now. I think in 0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:09.560 season he really really fell off, you know, he just 0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:11.600 kept not getting called up. I think there's the injury. 0:17:11.760 --> 0:17:16.440 He came up. He was decent in his time. Why 0:17:16.520 --> 0:17:18.600 I think I decided to do this was two things. 0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:22.280 I think he's firmly established in his rank range right 0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:24.960 now without question. So I think the I have him 0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:27.800 twenty fourth in Dynasty. So that is a two round player, 0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:30.199 whether you're playing in twelve team or fifteen team. But 0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:33.600 it is affirmed. It's not like, hey, we're putting like 0:17:33.640 --> 0:17:35.400 last year, we're putting Jackson Holliday up in the top 0:17:35.440 --> 0:17:37.680 twenty five and then they fall. I think those guys 0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:40.040 have a lot of wiggle room. The second was this, 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:44.280 of all the players that we're talking about here, specifically 0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:47.879 the risers and the major league guys, I believe that 0:17:48.000 --> 0:17:52.119 Camon Arrow's difference between his redraft and Dynasty value is 0:17:52.160 --> 0:17:58.080 the most dramatic. Give me Jackson Churio redraft in Dynasty close, 0:17:58.400 --> 0:18:01.560 Jackson Merrill close. You keep kind of going through the list. 0:18:02.000 --> 0:18:04.120 Maybe Jackson Holiday would have been a little bit different 0:18:04.119 --> 0:18:06.480 as well. But I think there's a pretty big dramatic 0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:09.960