Speaker 1: Hello, everybody.
Speaker 2: Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Baseball Podcast. I am Ryan Warmley,
Speaker 2: joined by Chris Wels.
Speaker 1: It is still in November.
Speaker 2: We are very much in football mode right now, but
Speaker 2: we are also thinking about baseball. We've had some awards
Speaker 2: announcements coming out lately. We are just a couple of
Speaker 2: weeks away, Welsh from the Winter Meetings, which I have
Speaker 2: very fond memories growing up as just one of the
Speaker 2: most fun weeks of the year and just kind of
Speaker 2: following all the twists and turns.
Speaker 1: I remember there was one year of the Orioles.
Speaker 2: We're talking to Prince Fielder when I was in college,
Speaker 2: and it was really exciting imagining, you know, all the
Speaker 2: fun transactions we could see. So we are, you know,
Speaker 2: not as far away as you might think from some
Speaker 2: real fantasy baseball discussion. We are bringing you, folks, some
Speaker 2: fantasy baseball podcasts in the offseason. Here kind of tied
Speaker 2: us over before we really dive deep in January. You've
Speaker 2: been doing a couple of these shows already well with
Speaker 2: Joe Alrico some other short form videos, and we decided
Speaker 2: to get you and me together here to talk about
Speaker 2: some dynasty risers and Follers.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm also baseball. We're in football mode, but I'm
Speaker 3: always in baseball. Most people know, like the Arizona Fall
Speaker 3: League just ended, so I'm dealing with this. This is
Speaker 3: my seasonal depression because then baseball actually just ended for me.
Speaker 3: But you know, from a dynasty perspective, watching a bunch
Speaker 3: of top prospects that are going to have some dynasty
Speaker 3: impact here, and I'm excited to do this, and we're
Speaker 3: doing more baseball than we've ever done. And you know,
Speaker 3: funny you mentioned the Winter meetings. In my previous life,
Speaker 3: I had a job, a corporate job that the hotel
Speaker 3: next to it was the hotel that players basketball and
Speaker 3: baseball players would go to, and they had the winter
Speaker 3: meetings here in Arizona, and they would go at that
Speaker 3: hotel for one or two of the years. I want
Speaker 3: to say when I was at that company, and I remember,
Speaker 3: you would if you went down, you would just see guys.
Speaker 3: You would see just owners and you would see players.
Speaker 3: I remember Brian Wilson famously, the big bearded closer for
Speaker 3: the Giants. It was like a hundred I mean, I
Speaker 3: guess this wasn't Winter meetings, but it was one hundred
Speaker 3: and ten him walking around with you know, with the
Speaker 3: shirt out into jeans and doing all that. But the
Speaker 3: winter meetings, these guys all walking around felt very intimate
Speaker 3: in that that you got to, I got to almost
Speaker 3: be a part of it. But we're gonna have a
Speaker 3: bunch of moves. All of this and the transactional changes
Speaker 3: from teams to player values is pretty exciting. And you
Speaker 3: know what we say, it's only November and baseball is
Speaker 3: still a little bit of ways. It's already going. Drafts
Speaker 3: are going, NFBC is going. I'm excited to do it,
Speaker 3: and I'm very excited to talk dynasty with you.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love dynasty.
Speaker 2: This is the fantasy sport that I most enjoy, the
Speaker 2: dynasty keeper league type of format. You know, I do
Speaker 2: play in some of those for like college basketball even
Speaker 2: but football obviously, but baseball is really where, I mean,
Speaker 2: the prospects are just so much of a bigger part
Speaker 2: of the experience of playing fantasy baseball than you know,
Speaker 2: there's not minor leagues for football, right it's just college
Speaker 2: guys coming in, So it's a different experience doing dynasty
Speaker 2: in baseball.
Speaker 1: That's one of the reasons why this is the show.
Speaker 1: I wanted to hop on with you.
Speaker 2: I love talking through the long term value and risers
Speaker 2: and followers in.
Speaker 1: Sort of format.
Speaker 2: Let's dive right in. We're gonna do risers. We'll go
Speaker 2: five to one that we'll give you some followers five
Speaker 2: to one. These are gonna be Welsh's picks, so we'll
Speaker 2: just kind of kind of talk them out and why
Speaker 2: we feel the way we feel about them. Then at
Speaker 2: the end of the show, we're gonna give an all
Speaker 2: Dynasty riser team. I thought that would be a fun,
Speaker 2: quick little thing at the end where we give you
Speaker 2: one guy at each position who kind of builds out
Speaker 2: the team of guys that are rising down before we
Speaker 2: dive in, just to give kind of the a framework
Speaker 2: of the episode for people.
Speaker 1: Are you viewing these and these are the names you
Speaker 1: put together.
Speaker 2: Are you viewing them as guys who rose the most
Speaker 2: last year or guys who you think are poised to
Speaker 2: rise the most this year, or some kind of in
Speaker 2: the in between, just like in the middle of rising
Speaker 2: right now and then following when we get to that segment.
Speaker 3: That's a great question. So I view these as the
Speaker 3: big change year over year for people to understand we
Speaker 3: kind of did something similar in the redraft of Hey,
Speaker 3: you know, familiarize yourself. These are players last year that
Speaker 3: have really changed their rank into upcoming years drafts. These
Speaker 3: are players that they're dynasty value year over year has
Speaker 3: had a major change. And you know that can come
Speaker 3: from players that you know, it's really difficult with prospects
Speaker 3: and young guys that it's like younger players are going
Speaker 3: to rank a lot higher in Dynasty just in general.
Speaker 3: But even some of these young guys have just taken
Speaker 3: another step in their value. So again there's a bigger,
Speaker 3: longer question about these players breaking out, but no, this
Speaker 3: is going to be the biggest changers of their dynasty
Speaker 3: value to start last year if you were starting a
Speaker 3: fresh one to this year. And the same thing with
Speaker 3: the guys that are falling. Those are players that ranked
Speaker 3: probably from anywhere from a decent amount to quite a
Speaker 3: bit higher last season and then due to this most
Speaker 3: recent season age things we're going to talk about have
Speaker 3: fallen in the ranks. Whether that is you guys restarting
Speaker 3: and starting up a new Dynasty draft, which I highly
Speaker 3: suggest if you have not played Dynasty like Worm is
Speaker 3: saying you should, I think it brings life even more
Speaker 3: to fantasy baseball, if ever you've been fringy about it.
Speaker 3: But whether you're starting up or you want to understand
Speaker 3: value because in the off season you're gonna get the Hawks,
Speaker 3: the Sharks are gonna be circling around trying to get
Speaker 3: your players. Hey, you know what you should trade me?
Speaker 3: Jackson Cheerio. He was pretty good, right, but he only
Speaker 3: had a DODA. They're gonna be circling, So you want
Speaker 3: to understand the values, and that'll be That's my approach
Speaker 3: to this conversation.
Speaker 2: My best, just quickly, I don't know my best dynasty league.
Speaker 2: It's more of like a deep keeper league. You keep fourteen,
Speaker 2: you know, at cost my best one of those that
Speaker 2: I'm in, I have a one dollar Bobby Witt Junior,
Speaker 2: a one dollar Gunner Henderson, and a one dollar Jackson Cheerio.
Speaker 2: So I am feeling darn good about that league. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I think I only play one redraft league a year. Honestly,
Speaker 2: it's the work league. Like the rest I too. I
Speaker 2: mean sometimes I'll do like some of the contest stuff,
Speaker 2: but like in terms of just like an annual league
Speaker 2: with the same kind of friends, a group of people
Speaker 2: it's I so largely do dynasty now.
Speaker 1: I just I just really prefer it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's funny you say that because there's a
Speaker 3: couple there's like the you know, you maybe played a
Speaker 3: long time and you might have this monster. I've had
Speaker 3: a couple of those where it's like, you know your
Speaker 3: major guide one is like Vlad and I had a
Speaker 3: Kunya and all those build ups, and then you have
Speaker 3: those teams that you've been working on. Mutual friend friend
Speaker 3: of the show Scott White from CBS, He's got this
Speaker 3: the long term Scott White Dynasty leagues that I took
Speaker 3: over three or four years ago to twenty fourteen league.
Speaker 3: I'm going into this year finally I drafted Paul Skeins,
Speaker 3: I got Corbyn Carroll, I got Bobby Witt, I got Otani.
Speaker 3: I'm finally ready to compete and Skeens is kind of
Speaker 3: the big piece to it in a points league. So
Speaker 3: building up and finally being ready to go off of
Speaker 3: that dynasty is very rewarding. But also seeing the fruits
Speaker 3: of your labor four or five years in being like,
Speaker 3: look at those values. That's what it's all about.
Speaker 2: We are going to get to some Paul Skeens discussion
Speaker 2: later on, perhaps unsurprisingly, let's start off with a prospect though,
Speaker 2: Roman Anthony in the Miners last season two ninety one,
Speaker 2: three ninety six, four ninety eight slash line, so almost
Speaker 2: nine hundred on the ops there just a little bit
Speaker 2: under eighteen home runs, twenty one stolen bases, so kind
Speaker 2: of one of those dual threat guys. We'll start next
Speaker 2: season at twenty years old. What led him to being
Speaker 2: on this list as a prospect?
Speaker 3: For you, Welsh, So, I think that's like the big
Speaker 3: question in general about and in the evaluation of dynasty,
Speaker 3: specifically baseball, It's like, how do we fit in the
Speaker 3: prospects because, like you said, there really isn't necessarily that
Speaker 3: in other sport dynasty leagues for the most part, it's
Speaker 3: like you can just throw the rookies in, you can
Speaker 3: throw them up high, and there's usually maybe a year
Speaker 3: transitional period. That's not the case here. You know, you
Speaker 3: can have guys some people have like Sebastian Walcott who's
Speaker 3: with the Texas Rangers, super young guy, or Leo de Vreese,
Speaker 3: Leo DeVries with the Padres just turned eighteen years old.
Speaker 3: Those guys could be top fifty in some dynasty leagues,
Speaker 3: those guys might not play for a couple of years.
Speaker 3: So it's a different world. So with that, I also
Speaker 3: think the prospect rank world is not in agreement, and
Speaker 3: maybe more than it's ever been in a singular year.
Speaker 3: And what I mean is, I think you check ten
Speaker 3: different people that rank prospects, different number one probably in
Speaker 3: seven of those ten, probably a different number two. So
Speaker 3: there's this big well.
Speaker 2: You know why, it's because there's finally not an obvious
Speaker 2: oriole sitting there at number one.
Speaker 3: You're not wrong, You're not right.
Speaker 1: I'm lovisio.
Speaker 2: But yeah, the last few years, Okay, well it's clearly gutter,
Speaker 2: it's clearly Jackson Holiday.
Speaker 1: We finally don't have that.
Speaker 3: This year, we don't and you're looking for those big
Speaker 3: threats guys. So I'm building this all to get to
Speaker 3: the prospect to say that when you look at prospect rankings,
Speaker 3: I think near the top, Jason Domingez, Dylan Cruz, those
Speaker 3: guys have been there, whether they're one and two on
Speaker 3: a list or four and five, they were on dynasty
Speaker 3: rank lists already pretty high. A majority of the guys
Speaker 3: of coming off the Walker Jenkins was another one. So
Speaker 3: we come to a player that rose dramatically in prospect
Speaker 3: rankings this year and by some outlets is the number
Speaker 3: one prospect in baseball. It's Roman Anthony. So Roman Anthony
Speaker 3: we've got to talk about from a dynasty perspective, because again,
Speaker 3: whether he is number one or he's inside my top five,
Speaker 3: he's not my number one overall prospect. The guy hit
Speaker 3: triple A. The guy put up a monster, monster season.
Speaker 3: Low k rate in triple A was under twenty percent,
Speaker 3: was around eighteen percent. He ran around twenty five percent
Speaker 3: in double A. Projected Steamer numbers. Steamer numbers are already
Speaker 3: out there. So after he just went out and hit
Speaker 3: eighteen homers, still twenty one bases. Both increases. He's increased,
Speaker 3: you know, pretty much every year he's been playing. Steamer
Speaker 3: has him for a light fifty ish games. But if
Speaker 3: we were to take Steamer's projections, which are usually relatively
Speaker 3: low on prospects, the one hundred and sixty two game
Speaker 3: pace is roughly twenty fifteen eighteen fifteen, right in that
Speaker 3: general range. So I just want to give you kind
Speaker 3: of a perspective of where that's at. Now. They've got
Speaker 3: a quadrant of players that are in TRIPAA. They've got
Speaker 3: Marcelo Mayer, They've got Christian Campbell, Kyle Teal, and Roman Anthony.
Speaker 3: All of those guys are on the precipice of coming
Speaker 3: to the majors. Maybe a couple of them get moved,
Speaker 3: it won't be Roman Anthony. I think Roman Anthony is
Speaker 3: the key piece to this team. Really good patients, huge
Speaker 3: big hard hit numbers. Will have to continue to monitor,
Speaker 3: like where the contact stuff goes as we get in,
Speaker 3: but it's big hard hit numbers. This team loves him,
Speaker 3: and there's a legit chance some of the trade options
Speaker 3: that this team has talked about in the off season,
Speaker 3: our guy's like Willie or Brady to open up spots.
Speaker 3: So we circle it all back to say, prospects are
Speaker 3: going to shine and jump out to people on Dynasty lists,
Speaker 3: and the top two at least in my world, Dylan
Speaker 3: Cruise and Jason Dominguez are already in the majors. So
Speaker 3: Roman Anthony is one that is going to fly out
Speaker 3: to you. I've got him inside my top seventy five.
Speaker 3: He has a legit shot to be up this season
Speaker 3: and beat Steamer expectations of games played. Could easily hit
Speaker 3: one hundred and more or maybe we get shocked because
Speaker 3: he hit triple A and this team is open to
Speaker 3: putting him in the majors when we talk about the
Speaker 3: compensatory pick. So I say all of this to say
Speaker 3: from a rank dynasty perspective, because he moved up so
Speaker 3: much on everybody's prospect list and has vaulted into the
Speaker 3: number one spot. He's going to rank somewhere between probably
Speaker 3: thirty five and eighty five on any dynasty list out there.
Speaker 3: And he's a super young triple A outfielder who does
Speaker 3: not have everything locked in, but is a big future
Speaker 3: of the game. And that's a massive dynasty change just
Speaker 3: kind of across the landscape compared to the rest of
Speaker 3: the prospects that are out there.
Speaker 2: Something like round five, round six in a startup, is
Speaker 2: that where you'd be eyeing to take him.
Speaker 3: Yeah. So there's also a big conversation about, like how
Speaker 3: do you treat dynasty. Are you a win now? Are
Speaker 3: you a middle like I'm going to kind of take
Speaker 3: pieces of everything or are you going to be I'm
Speaker 3: playing for the future. If you were playing for the future,
Speaker 3: Roman Anthony might be a third or fourth round pick
Speaker 3: in dynasty. If you're just kind of median across the board,
Speaker 3: I would say, like you kind of nailed that. Like
Speaker 3: I said, if I have him in the seventies and
Speaker 3: it's a fifteen team league, fourth, fifth, sixth round somewhere
Speaker 3: in there, it's a good future play.
Speaker 2: Let's go to some of our major league players here
Speaker 2: who have risen up. Mark Ventas the Mets twenty seven
Speaker 2: home runs in one hundred and eleven games, won't turn
Speaker 2: twenty five until next month. Eight thirty seven ops, one
Speaker 2: thirty five ops plus in twenty twenty four, just like
Speaker 2: an awesome breakout season. I did not see coming going
Speaker 2: into the twenty twenty four and now is somebody I'll
Speaker 2: be a lot more excited to drive twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: As far as the dynasty ranking goes, where do you
Speaker 2: have him?
Speaker 3: So yeah, I completely agree with you too. By the way,
Speaker 3: everyone thought this was going to be Brett Batty. Brett
Speaker 3: Batty was going to be the one, like, hey, he's
Speaker 3: going to play a whole bunch, and Venta's had some
Speaker 3: big swing and misissues and he still does. So I
Speaker 3: have Vienta's inside my top one hundred. I've actually got
Speaker 3: Roman anthe a little bit higher. Totally could understand if
Speaker 3: someone's like, hey, that's under selling. Look at that power.
Speaker 3: He's thirty plus home run projected every single season. Not
Speaker 3: going to argue there. I think he's somewhere in that
Speaker 3: same general like seventy five to one hundred. I've got
Speaker 3: him specifically right at ninety one. Right now. What I
Speaker 3: really love he hits lefties and righty's well, at least
Speaker 3: he did this past season. A phenomenal fourteen point one
Speaker 3: percent barrel percentage and a forty six percent hard hit rate,
Speaker 3: something I'm hyper focused on, especially impactful hitters. I'm always
Speaker 3: going to look at barrel percentage and I'm going to
Speaker 3: look at hard hit numbers because if you're barreling up
Speaker 3: the ball, hitting that on that really good spot and
Speaker 3: you've got good hard hit whether you are a poll
Speaker 3: Happy or you're Paul Goldsmith type of contact hitter, good
Speaker 3: things are gonna happen. So those are two really great recipes,
Speaker 3: and it played itself out in Mark Vianto's last year.
Speaker 3: My worries though almost a thirty percent k rate that
Speaker 3: is paired with a forty percent with rate against any
Speaker 3: forty plus percent against any non fastball, So fastballs he
Speaker 3: did his work with. Everything else he struggled with, and
Speaker 3: that goes with a thirty two percent chase rate. So
Speaker 3: when teams are readjusting to him this year, you're going
Speaker 3: to probably see more breaking pitches. They're gonna want him
Speaker 3: to chase because he's got a high chase rate, and
Speaker 3: if it's not a fastball, he struggles. So that to
Speaker 3: me mitigates maybe some of the batting average. It doesn't
Speaker 3: mitigate the power because I think it's pure, great raw power,
Speaker 3: and those are the things that hold me back from saying, hey,
Speaker 3: this is a top fifty prospect, because guess what if
Speaker 3: he dramatically improves on you know, his strikeout rate and
Speaker 3: hits for a higher average, it's kind of like Pete
Speaker 3: Alonso Like, maybe it's not as dramatic as of power,
Speaker 3: but it's kind of Pete Alonzo ish. So I think
Speaker 3: there is more up there, but I think there's some volatility.
Speaker 3: Projections early Steamer projections two forty two with thirty two homers,
Speaker 3: that's phenomenal. That's an easy top one hundred. Some might
Speaker 3: even take him top fifty. But that's a huge dramatic
Speaker 3: year over year change because I think a lot of
Speaker 3: people were writing Vano's off last year because of the
Speaker 3: Wiff issues, but he just turned really quality it bats
Speaker 3: into big power and the projected number ce it carrying.
Speaker 2: Over so just quickly because he's not on our list
Speaker 2: for the followers. What does Vanto's establishing himself as like
Speaker 2: the third basement of the future for the Mets? What
Speaker 2: does that do to Brett Batty in your opinion in
Speaker 2: terms of dynasty.
Speaker 3: Well, I think it really hurt. I think it makes
Speaker 3: Brett Bady a trade target.
Speaker 1: Do you think he'll get traded?
Speaker 3: I think there's a high possibility. But here's a caveat.
Speaker 3: I'm going to throw it at you. Peter Alans a
Speaker 3: free agent. If ped Alonso doesn't resign, Mark Vanto's is
Speaker 3: the first basement of its future. Yeah, I personally kind
Speaker 3: of think that's where they want v Into's long term.
Speaker 3: And it's not to say that ped Alans is not
Speaker 3: going to resign. I think, no matter what Alonso resigns
Speaker 3: or doesn't resign, I think Brett Batty is up as
Speaker 3: a trade, you know, potential target. And let's say they
Speaker 3: go and sign one Soto, They're not gonna do much
Speaker 3: else in free agency, So what's the best course of action.
Speaker 3: Take those prospect assets, go and take the Luisan Helicunyaz,
Speaker 3: take the Brett Baties, Maybe take some of those young
Speaker 3: pitchers Brennan Sprott or Blake Tidwell, and you know, make
Speaker 3: some impactful trades to pair with a guy like Sodo
Speaker 3: if they do that. So I think either way, Batty
Speaker 3: is kind of on the way out.
Speaker 2: Welsh, there was one name when you sent me this
Speaker 2: list that I was kind of confused by. I raised
Speaker 2: my eyebrows at Junior Cameronaro, Who's the next guy on
Speaker 2: this list? And that was he was the biggest reason
Speaker 2: why I wanted to ask kind of what the framework
Speaker 2: of these players were where you're kind of looking at
Speaker 2: what we saw last year versus the future. Because Caminara
Speaker 2: was obviously a very highly touted prospect going into last season,
Speaker 2: I drafted to stash him in a couple of re
Speaker 2: draft leagues, and you know, it may or might not
Speaker 2: have panned out in those leagues. Obviously, six on runs
Speaker 2: two forty eight, two ninety nine, four twenty four slash
Speaker 2: line in just forty three games at the big league level,
Speaker 2: last year, only twenty one years old. I'm not saying
Speaker 2: we're giving up on him as a prospect anywhere anywhere.
Speaker 1: Close to that.
Speaker 2: But I was surprised to see him list it as
Speaker 2: a riser because I thought he was pretty highly tatted
Speaker 2: already comes in, didn't exactly set the world on fire,
Speaker 2: and now you have him as one of your biggest risers.
Speaker 2: So can you kind of explain that decision for us?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this was like the toughest one. There
Speaker 3: are multiple players we could have put in this, like
Speaker 3: and not that I was trying to like theme out
Speaker 3: any of the picks, you know, like let's have this
Speaker 3: type of guy and this type of guy, but you know,
Speaker 3: you do look and you go, Okay, Jackson Churio phenomenal
Speaker 3: rookie year, let's go. But he was already ranked really high.
Speaker 3: Jackson Merrill was Actually that would be a decent one
Speaker 3: talked about on the Rejob Show. Would have been a
Speaker 3: decent one to do as well. Jackson Holiday probably could
Speaker 3: have almost been in one of those fallers, but I
Speaker 3: think he kind of maintained So here's the reason I
Speaker 3: decided to do it. So I do think that Camonaro
Speaker 3: for the most part held you know, relative to last year,
Speaker 3: like maybe he was he actually might have been as
Speaker 3: high as he is ranked right now. I think in
Speaker 3: season he really really fell off, you know, he just
Speaker 3: kept not getting called up. I think there's the injury.
Speaker 3: He came up. He was decent in his time. Why
Speaker 3: I think I decided to do this was two things.
Speaker 3: I think he's firmly established in his rank range right
Speaker 3: now without question. So I think the I have him
Speaker 3: twenty fourth in Dynasty. So that is a two round player,
Speaker 3: whether you're playing in twelve team or fifteen team. But
Speaker 3: it is affirmed. It's not like, hey, we're putting like
Speaker 3: last year, we're putting Jackson Holliday up in the top
Speaker 3: twenty five and then they fall. I think those guys
Speaker 3: have a lot of wiggle room. The second was this,
Speaker 3: of all the players that we're talking about here, specifically
Speaker 3: the risers and the major league guys, I believe that
Speaker 3: Camon Arrow's difference between his redraft and Dynasty value is
Speaker 3: the most dramatic. Give me Jackson Churio redraft in Dynasty close,
Speaker 3: Jackson Merrill close. You keep kind of going through the list.
Speaker 3: Maybe Jackson Holiday would have been a little bit different
Speaker 3: as well. But I think there's a pretty big dramatic
Speaker 3: change between the redraft of Kemenaro this year and what
Speaker 3: his dynasty value is, which could throw people off. And
Speaker 3: the key points that I really wanted to focus because
Speaker 3: I just wanted to talk about him. I said, I
Speaker 3: love barrel percentage and hard hit percentage. Bam eleven point
Speaker 3: eight percent barrel percentage with a forty five percent hard
Speaker 3: hit rate. He did in his rookie year, which you
Speaker 3: said it wasn't really great, came up late, it was okay,
Speaker 3: hit two forty two, didn't you know, knock anybody socks off.
Speaker 3: Everybody didn't get crazily excited. I love that elite bat
Speaker 3: speed seventy seven point two mile per hour bat speed
Speaker 3: league averages around seventy two. That's at the tippy top
Speaker 3: of the league. An incredibly great bat speed while he
Speaker 3: barrels and hits the ball hard projections. This is the
Speaker 3: Steamer projections on him this season. Twenty nine homers with
Speaker 3: the two sixty two batting average, five stolen bases and
Speaker 3: ninety RBIs almost thirty homers off of that initial season,
Speaker 3: that yet rookie season that you saw you take some
Speaker 3: of the underlying stuff. With a massively boosted batting average
Speaker 3: and huge hard hit and bat speed, I really think
Speaker 3: he's established himself here. I will say this, I am
Speaker 3: worried about the batting average in general, chase rate thirty
Speaker 3: five percent chase rate with a forty two percent breaking
Speaker 3: ball with rate, so he is going to get hit
Speaker 3: with probably more sliders early on people pitching probably from
Speaker 3: behind on him, not trying to challenge him with fastballs,
Speaker 3: and I am a little bit worried he could get
Speaker 3: ahead of himself. But I think in general, my main
Speaker 3: point to this is there's a pretty big difference between
Speaker 3: Redraft and his dynasty value, even though year over year
Speaker 3: dynasty values closer. I think it was really important to
Speaker 3: talk about him because I feel like we got more
Speaker 3: answers of the important rookies last year. Even in holidays
Speaker 3: struggles and Sureio and Paul schemes, We're going to talk
Speaker 3: about all those guys. I feel like we got all
Speaker 3: the answers of the important prospects we didn't, we got more.
Speaker 3: I think we have more clarity and Dylan Cruz with
Speaker 3: what we saw last year than what we actually got
Speaker 3: out with Junior Camenaro, and I just I thought felt
Speaker 3: it's important to reaffirm like his status as an elite
Speaker 3: future power bat and we just got to pay attention
Speaker 3: to what that chase rate and with the batting average goes.
Speaker 3: But twenty four in Dynasty for me.
Speaker 2: So in a startup in a vacuum, you are taking
Speaker 2: him in what rounds?
Speaker 3: Second round? Yeah, I'm taking him in the second round. Yeah.
Speaker 3: I will say, like, I tend to be more of
Speaker 3: a win now type of guy, so I'm okay with
Speaker 3: pushing like Hosi Ramirez, Mookie Bets. Those guys are the
Speaker 3: real dicey guys early on in uh in dynasties right now,
Speaker 3: because it's like the thirty one thirty two where Mooki
Speaker 3: and Ramirez and Judge would be like what top six
Speaker 3: seven picks in a redraft, those guys can get pushed
Speaker 3: to the second. So for me personally, like if Jose
Speaker 3: Ramirez fell to like the middle of the second I
Speaker 3: want to win now, I probably would wouldn't not probably,
Speaker 3: I definitively would not be able to pass him up
Speaker 3: to win now. So that's why he could fall off
Speaker 3: of my radar a tiny bit. But if I was
Speaker 3: more focused on young or I had these wheel picks
Speaker 3: JUNI Camerenero is a massive target because he's super young.
Speaker 3: I think the power is going to get there. I'm
Speaker 3: just a little bit worried about his transition of like
Speaker 3: what the batting average is going to be in him
Speaker 3: improving his chase rate. But he was an elite hitter
Speaker 3: in the minor league. You just wish he stole more.
Speaker 3: It's kind of it's kind of many Machado wish there's
Speaker 3: a little bit of Manny Machado in him.
Speaker 2: Let's get to a number two on the risers list.
Speaker 2: A guy I love was not confused to see included here.
Speaker 2: James Would nine home runs, fourteen stolen bases in seventy
Speaker 2: nine games last year, two sixty four average, seven to
Speaker 2: eighty one ops. Just recently turned twenty two. I think
Speaker 2: he is going to be a fantasy monster for a
Speaker 2: long long time.
Speaker 3: Completely agree. And he was one of those dudes last
Speaker 3: year where it was just like, you know, maybe he's
Speaker 3: eight nine in prospects, you know, floated up to the top,
Speaker 3: and then he just had this monstrous start to the
Speaker 3: season and then he gets called up and there's really
Speaker 3: everything that you wanted from him nine homer's, fourteen stolen
Speaker 3: bases and just under three hundred at bats. Love that
Speaker 3: he hit for average and his expected batting average was
Speaker 3: higher than his actual batting average two sixty four to
Speaker 3: two sixty nine batting to XBA, which you love already.
Speaker 3: He's putting up upper tier barrel numbers again. Like the
Speaker 3: theme for me is if I get that pairing of
Speaker 3: like double digit barrel percentage with really good hard hit numbers,
Speaker 3: I love it well. Ten percent barrel rate in his
Speaker 3: rookie year, fifty two percent hard hit rate, absolute monster
Speaker 3: launch angle was low like some rookies. It's actually very
Speaker 3: reminiscent of Vladimir Guerrero Junior. He did kind of the
Speaker 3: same thing barrel hard hit in his first couple of years,
Speaker 3: and he'd have like a five degree launch angle.
Speaker 2: That's exactly as an ass James would a two point
Speaker 2: four degree launch angle. He just hit the ball on
Speaker 2: the ground so much.
Speaker 3: It's it's a total it's like very uncoard common. It's
Speaker 3: not uncommon, it's a very common, like rookie trait of
Speaker 3: you know guys that are selling out to really like
Speaker 3: hit well. And that's like the thing that I loved
Speaker 3: about him in the miners, he did the same thing
Speaker 3: hits lefties. You know, he's a big lefty, lefty righty.
Speaker 3: He doesn't have like a lefty righty split, which is incredible.
Speaker 3: So this is one of those guys that I don't
Speaker 3: think is trying to sell out for power. Like I
Speaker 3: will tell you, I think Junior Camerinaro does like just ginormous,
Speaker 3: crazy fast bat speed that is just generating these big homers.
Speaker 3: James Wood was letting things come to him, and you
Speaker 3: know that's what I think. Sometimes you hit kind of
Speaker 3: across your body and it's like double's power. But that
Speaker 3: barrel and hard hit percentage when that fixes is going
Speaker 3: to look elite. Now, his K percentage has to come down,
Speaker 3: but a very encouraging number. Twenty one percent chase rate,
Speaker 3: one of the lowest in the league. I mean, it
Speaker 3: didn't qualify because he didn't play enough, but you know,
Speaker 3: twenty one percent chase rate when I just told you
Speaker 3: the chase rate in the smallest sample size for Junia
Speaker 3: Cammeraro was thirty five percent. So you know, like there
Speaker 3: are some warning signs that people will be like, well,
Speaker 3: you know you didn't hit as much power as I thought,
Speaker 3: and he had some high strikeout rate, launch angle fix,
Speaker 3: great hard hit numbers, low chase rate. That makes me
Speaker 3: feel phenomenal and where he was probably floating between I
Speaker 3: don't know, seventy eighty ninety, maybe the Roman Anthony range
Speaker 3: last year. He's twenty three and maybe pushes into the
Speaker 3: top twenty right now in Dynasty. He's another one of
Speaker 3: those guys that it's like, you can build this great
Speaker 3: young core. I think he's created some great baseline traits
Speaker 3: for himself that is going to continue to get great,
Speaker 3: and don't be surprised when you get a thirty thirty
Speaker 3: season out of James Wood in the next year or two.
Speaker 3: That's what's in play and that's why he's a top
Speaker 3: two round player.
Speaker 2: He was basically on pace for a twenty thirty season
Speaker 2: as a rookie with a two sixty four average. Just
Speaker 2: turned twenty two. I mean, I yeah, like this guy
Speaker 2: is the limit for for him?
Speaker 1: Truthfully, I don't think you can put a ceiling on him.
Speaker 2: Speaking of guys who don't have a ceiling, Number One,
Speaker 2: Paul Skean's surprising nobody, or at least it shouldn't just
Speaker 2: a beast of a rookie season, I mean an incredible
Speaker 2: rookie race in the National League. This year Paul Skeens
Speaker 2: does end up winning Rookie of the Year in that league.
Speaker 2: You always it was one of the seasons where you
Speaker 2: wish you could just give this both rookie awards to
Speaker 2: National League guys and have the al skip out a
Speaker 2: year because of how strong it was in the senior circuit.
Speaker 2: But yes, Skians hundred thirty three innings, one C nine
Speaker 2: to five, whip, one hundred and seventy strikeouts, I mean,
Speaker 2: twenty two years old, is as a rookie, you know,
Speaker 2: less than a year removed from being the number one
Speaker 2: overall pick in the draft, one of the best pictures
Speaker 2: prospects to come into baseball in a long time, and
Speaker 2: lived up to the height immediately. There was absolutely no
Speaker 2: adjustment period necessary, just a monster. So really, we don't
Speaker 2: need to sit here and give this effusive praise for Skins,
Speaker 2: because anybody listening to this show is well aware of
Speaker 2: how good Paul Skins is. So I want to ask
Speaker 2: you this and frame it as if in a dynasty startup,
Speaker 2: how many names. Obviously you're not taking any pictures ahead
Speaker 2: of him, unless you want to correct me, I can't
Speaker 2: imagine you would. But how many hitters are you taking
Speaker 2: before Paul Skeens is getting drafted?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a it's a good question, and I think
Speaker 3: the main point, just to reiterate of bringing him up
Speaker 3: is to say he's the US. He's almost the unquestioned
Speaker 3: redraft starting pitcher. I think some people are a little
Speaker 3: dicey because to pay a higher price for schemes over
Speaker 3: like Schooble doesn't make sense to some people. It's not
Speaker 3: close in dynasty. To answer your question, I have schemes
Speaker 3: at twelve, so that would be eleven hitters that are
Speaker 3: over him. Or if you want to be sneaky about it,
Speaker 3: you know sho hail Tani to a player, so you know,
Speaker 3: maybe there is a picture above. Yeah, here's the only
Speaker 3: thing that holds him back. Because based on what you
Speaker 3: saw with Paul Skeins, you could argue he's like top
Speaker 3: three or four, and like you.
Speaker 1: Could argue, I wouldn't do this.
Speaker 3: It can't argue don't do the one number one overall
Speaker 3: because I don't.
Speaker 1: Think you can do it.
Speaker 2: You I was going to say, you could make an
Speaker 2: argument I would disagree with that argument. I think you
Speaker 2: could make the argument if you think that the gap
Speaker 2: between him and other pictures for the next decade is
Speaker 2: as wide as it could be, I think you can
Speaker 2: make the case. I would not unequivocally I would not
Speaker 2: take him number one in a Dynasty startup.
Speaker 3: For a level of dominance.
Speaker 1: I would listen to an argument, and then I would
Speaker 1: reject the argument.
Speaker 3: So here is the problem with all of those is
Speaker 3: fun accolades. He's a picture, and that's ultimately the problem.
Speaker 3: Why he can't he isn't higher. You could be like,
Speaker 3: how can you have him at ten? Soon? Show has
Speaker 3: him at seven? Great? He's a pitcher in Dynasty. Like,
Speaker 3: the one thing you don't really want to do, especially
Speaker 3: if you are a young team, is build into pitching
Speaker 3: in Dynasty. I would also say, in a general sense,
Speaker 3: until you are closer or heavily competing, you just don't
Speaker 3: want to be weighted so heavy on pitching. Now, if
Speaker 3: you were to take Paul Skeen's, great, you're locked down
Speaker 3: for a really long time. He's a phenomenal pitcher. I
Speaker 3: mean tenth best War of all pitchers this past year
Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty pitchers. Oh this is the number.
Speaker 3: I didn't coherently write this, but of one hundred and
Speaker 3: twenty pitchers with one hundred or more innings pitch this
Speaker 3: past year, Skeen said the lowest RA of one hundred
Speaker 3: or more innings pitch, one hundred and twenty pitchers lowest era,
Speaker 3: and he also made great strides. That sinker turned into
Speaker 3: what they call the splinker. It's just like a hard
Speaker 3: sinker that he throws throws in between like a split finger.
Speaker 3: It had the second best whiff rate amongst starting pitchers.
Speaker 3: Only Crochet was higher, and it was almost thirty percent
Speaker 3: and had a twenty percent k rate on it, which
Speaker 3: was top ten among starters. Because the point is is
Speaker 3: like sinkers don't induce strikeouts, which is insane and Steamer
Speaker 3: projections for this year check this out. He is number
Speaker 3: one projected in strikeouts this year off of his rookie year.
Speaker 3: There's no other picture. He is the highest strikeout projected.
Speaker 3: He also had the best ERA of every single one
Speaker 3: of those two hundred plus strikeout pitchers, fifth best k
Speaker 3: per nine and second highest war projected to Jacob deGrom,
Speaker 3: which is hilarious. But the thing you need to know
Speaker 3: is Paul Skeins is the unquestioned first round type of
Speaker 3: talent starting pitcher, but ultimately he is a starting pitcher.
Speaker 3: So when you ask me that question coming back, how
Speaker 3: many hitters would I take above him, it is ten
Speaker 3: because I don't personally from a startup, want to build
Speaker 3: around a starting pitcher. I could see a scenario where
Speaker 3: I think buying pitching in dynasty is a lot tougher
Speaker 3: than people make it out to be. I think some
Speaker 3: dynasty people are like, oh, you just don't worry about it,
Speaker 3: and you just build all your hitting and then right
Speaker 3: at the end you can get your pitching now. It
Speaker 3: doesn't work like that. Every dynasty I've ever played, people
Speaker 3: are hoarding their pitching. You could draft schemes and then
Speaker 3: knowing values drop a little bit if you go and
Speaker 3: get you know, a Jose Ramirez or you get a
Speaker 3: first round talent and then you build around some more
Speaker 3: win now type of players. I think that's a better approach.
Speaker 3: That's how I would do it. I wouldn't want to
Speaker 3: be drafting Paul Skins and then James Wood and Da
Speaker 3: da da. I think the risk is too great. This
Speaker 3: is also one of the highest velocity fastball pitchers out there.
Speaker 3: You gotta he was pitched like a gajillion innings in college.
Speaker 3: We worry about that and the usage that's on him.
Speaker 3: So ultimately this is back to that, like pitching prospect
Speaker 3: wanting to be heavily invested in pitchers, which I don't,
Speaker 3: but it's just not remotely close. He's the unquestioned top
Speaker 3: starting pitcher. He was already high last year. But he's
Speaker 3: the only guy that has deserved in redraft or dynasty
Speaker 3: to be even considered in the first round with age
Speaker 3: due to absolute dominant students fricking second in the cy
Speaker 3: young It's not even remotely close. He is a unicorn
Speaker 3: of unicorns of starting pitchers, So you could do that
Speaker 3: points league. This is a little bit different conversation, but
Speaker 3: ultimately a pitching prospect is really tough for me to
Speaker 3: put inside the top ten with the volatility.
Speaker 2: The case for Skins going as high as youever you
Speaker 2: want to make it is that he's an outlier, which
Speaker 2: he may very well be. I mean, just as dominant
Speaker 2: as he was as a rookie.
Speaker 3: A unicorn argument.
Speaker 1: You just don't see this.
Speaker 2: Having said that, I mean, I think back to where
Speaker 2: was Strider going in startups a year ago, and he's
Speaker 2: like three years older than Skeins is now. But like,
Speaker 2: you couldn't have been more excited about a pitcher basically
Speaker 2: than Strider, And now.
Speaker 1: That value falls away because of the injury.
Speaker 2: So not that it's entirely gone, but obviously it looks
Speaker 2: a lot different now. So I mean, we'll put a
Speaker 2: bow on it just as a fun exercise. If I
Speaker 2: the baseball gods came down and said to you, Chris Welsh,
Speaker 2: Paul Skeins is guaranteed health for his career. Everybody's guaranteed.
Speaker 2: How injuries are a thing of the past now in baseball?
Speaker 2: Is he number one for you then or still not?
Speaker 3: I don't think he's number one, but he's like three
Speaker 3: if you guaranteed.
Speaker 1: Me with like a kunya because injuries are gone.
Speaker 3: I think Oani, even though Tana is thirty, Like I'm
Speaker 3: comfortable with Tani is the number one over on Dynasty
Speaker 3: because he starts pitching again and it's I know, it's
Speaker 3: like a dicey conversation, Wit, I have a heart. I
Speaker 3: don't think I could take Skemes over.
Speaker 2: Wit.
Speaker 3: Things start to open up a little bit between Akunya
Speaker 3: Soto Gunner Ellie, like if I got two hundred and
Speaker 3: fifty strikeouts for ten if you said ten years of health,
Speaker 3: and then it's gonna open up after ten years, maybe
Speaker 3: it is number one ten years.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be though.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's gonna hold down your whole rotation.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Paul Skins is amazing. We're not breaking any news there.
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Speaker 2: as you and I are wanted to do together. We
Speaker 2: went a little long on the risers, so go a
Speaker 2: little quicker on the followers. People also have less interest
Speaker 2: in the negative side of things. We had fun with
Speaker 2: the positive. We'll bring it down a bit on the
Speaker 2: negative number five Mike Trout super negative one emotionally, just
Speaker 2: because it's sadder and sadder every year to see him
Speaker 2: not be able to stay healthy. Fantastic start to twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four, low batting average, but ten home runs in
Speaker 2: twenty nine games. Injured again, of course, missing the rest
Speaker 2: of the year. Thirty three years old now and hasn't
Speaker 2: been truly healthy in what a half decade. So I
Speaker 2: assume age and injury is really the only thing going
Speaker 2: into this, you know, having him listed here as a foller.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's pretty simplistic to that. I mean, he's thirty
Speaker 3: three years old. He clearly cannot be healthy, and that's
Speaker 3: the big thing. And I want to preface this, this
Speaker 3: is kind of a me one too. I think there
Speaker 3: are other people good for them smartly have kind of
Speaker 3: moved off of the Mike Trout you know, realm sooner.
Speaker 3: I am a little injury agnostic where I just want
Speaker 3: to give benefits of the doubt, and I want to
Speaker 3: give benefits of the doubt. And here's my biggest struggle
Speaker 3: with a player is when a player is an incredibly awesome,
Speaker 3: unique talent, every moment they're on the field and then
Speaker 3: they get hurt. Jacob de Gram is another one of those.
Speaker 3: Jagram's a little different now because he's thirty six years old,
Speaker 3: but Trout is in that range now. I have continuously
Speaker 3: given him that pass, but I think it is more
Speaker 3: than been proven these degenerative issues, he cannot stay healthy
Speaker 3: and the team gets worse around him. You also saw,
Speaker 3: as good as he was, you saw some decline's massive
Speaker 3: hard hit decline this past year forty one percent. It
Speaker 3: was a I guess of his entire career as a
Speaker 3: third lowesst that he's ever seen. He was striking out
Speaker 3: quite a bit less, which is definitely a positive, but
Speaker 3: he was worse against fastballs, which is not something you
Speaker 3: want to see. And you just wonder if there's more
Speaker 3: of the I don't know, like a patient hitter that's
Speaker 3: in there, that's not going to put up these big
Speaker 3: impactful numbers. And his age goes on, these guys are
Speaker 3: going to lose, just deteriorate a little bit. And it's
Speaker 3: like if you take away the big power from Mike
Speaker 3: Trout and he doesn't have forty home run potential and
Speaker 3: now he's a thirty home run high batting average like
Speaker 3: he's got bad players around him, so it's like, can
Speaker 3: you project eighty five? Eighty five with thirty something Homers
Speaker 3: doesn't steal a whole lot. I know he did steal
Speaker 3: a little bit more this year. He's still six, but
Speaker 3: there's not much stolen base potential, and he hits for
Speaker 3: higher batting average. Listen, that's third round, but that's a
Speaker 3: pipe dream because he can't stay healthy. He's never on
Speaker 3: the field. So all of those things combined. I held
Speaker 3: out hope last year, held out a little bit of
Speaker 3: hope and redraft I was right for a month, held
Speaker 3: out some hope and dynasty that. Oh he's still top
Speaker 3: seventy five. Look at it's outside the top one hundred.
Speaker 3: I think that's the big key. I think some people
Speaker 3: are going to smash him into the two hundreds. I
Speaker 3: think if you are a win now team.
Speaker 1: Would you trade for him? If you're a win now team,
Speaker 1: not even thinking the startup, but would you trade for
Speaker 1: for cheap?
Speaker 3: For cheap? I would be comfortable doing it if it
Speaker 3: was for cheap. But I think his name value this
Speaker 3: might be the first year the name value really tanked.
Speaker 3: Like the name value was always there and people can
Speaker 3: make arguments that might be gone. So maybe I would
Speaker 3: be a little bit more likely, but it's outside the
Speaker 3: top one hundred. But if your win, now, I think
Speaker 3: it's hard like outside of that, if he's just floating
Speaker 3: around there, like go get that outfield. He's in a
Speaker 3: DH maybe he does stay a little bit healthier. That
Speaker 3: was the Byron Buxton argument. But we know he's going
Speaker 3: to hit the el. But the big change is that
Speaker 3: I think everybody uniformed, everybody collectively got together and came
Speaker 3: off of Mike Trout. In his dynasty value, it is
Speaker 3: post one hundred in a dynasty draft, probably post one fifty.
Speaker 1: Yeah, next up.
Speaker 2: Luis Castillo turns thirty two next month. He made thirty
Speaker 2: starts in twenty twenty four when eleven and twelve one
Speaker 2: to seventy five and a third inning one hundred and
Speaker 2: seventy five strikeouts, so almost exactly identical there three sixty
Speaker 2: four ERA just a one oh one ERA plus so
Speaker 2: just barely above average in that metric, and a one
Speaker 2: to seventeen whip. That's his worst since twenty twenty one.
Speaker 2: Is Castillo an age related foller?
Speaker 3: Yeah, Well it's twofold, it's age thirty two year old
Speaker 3: picture that doesn't feel real great, and that's paired with
Speaker 3: VLO decrease and those two things don't don't work super well.
Speaker 3: Now it's changed before. I think Verlander went through this
Speaker 3: and kind of readjusted his career and refound himself. So
Speaker 3: I don't think that that. I really don't think like
Speaker 3: a lot of these guys are these damning like they
Speaker 3: can never come back and never improve and you have
Speaker 3: to fade these guys Like No, I think it's just
Speaker 3: the value changes. I will be frank. I think there's
Speaker 3: multiple pictures I could have chosen from. I was picking
Speaker 3: between them, so a younger guy and Zach Gallon that
Speaker 3: I think his value has changed. Logan Webb has come down,
Speaker 3: Aaron Nola has come down, but specifically Castillo hitting that
Speaker 3: thirty two year old marker having you know, arguably is
Speaker 3: still a good season, but like one of the worst seasons.
Speaker 3: It's the second worst expected ERA that he has had
Speaker 3: in his entire career, three straight years of an ERA
Speaker 3: increase as well, and on top of it, the whiff numbers,
Speaker 3: So the VILO went down, but the whiff numbers decreased
Speaker 3: across the board, almost across the entire board of all
Speaker 3: of his pitch types. So you had his fastball going
Speaker 3: down about a mile per hour. I think a slider
Speaker 3: did as well, and with decreases with the age, I
Speaker 3: don't love it. And he went from a guy that,
Speaker 3: regardless of the age, was probably top thirty five, top
Speaker 3: forty last year and he is pushing outside the top
Speaker 3: eighty and frankly, pinning the type of rotation you're putting together,
Speaker 3: you might be better set with a Brandon Fott. I
Speaker 3: think Uri Perez, even coming off of his surgery at
Speaker 3: his age, is a better long term investment to me,
Speaker 3: and Luis Castillo's value is in the team that I
Speaker 3: am pushing back some of these young players and I'm
Speaker 3: trying to win.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 3: You can push him up, but I think there's some
Speaker 3: bad trends in the wrong direction for Castillo.
Speaker 2: Luis Robert next on the list, still only twenty seven
Speaker 2: years old. It's not an age related one here. Fourteen
Speaker 2: home runs, twenty three stone bases in one hundred games.
Speaker 2: In twenty twenty four, he hit a two twenty four,
Speaker 2: two seventy eight, three seventy nine slash line ops plus
Speaker 2: eighty seven, which was the first time in his career
Speaker 2: he was below one hundred, so below average. We went
Speaker 2: into including Robert on this list.
Speaker 3: I'm not black and white in everything that I do,
Speaker 3: So when I tell you that a guy's fallen or
Speaker 3: rose up, I don't think it's the be all end all.
Speaker 3: I think there's a gray area in all of it
Speaker 3: that guys can fix themselves and if there's a player
Speaker 3: on the decrease that can improve themselves. So least Robert
Speaker 3: age is in his favor, pretty big, productive years are
Speaker 3: in his favor. But last year it was such a stark,
Speaker 3: scary reminder of how bad it can be. And maybe
Speaker 3: you chalk it up to like you're playing on one
Speaker 3: of the worst teams of all time, you're not invested.
Speaker 3: He was injured, he was playing out here in the
Speaker 3: I saw him multiple times playing in Complex League. You know,
Speaker 3: his friends were gone, Eloy was traded. Mancata was a disaster.
Speaker 3: Like I think there's a personal element of it. Maybe
Speaker 3: he just wasn't interested because it didn't seem like it,
Speaker 3: But the stats tell that story full on thirty three
Speaker 3: percent k rate, that's the worst. Barrel percentage dropped to
Speaker 3: nine percent, which was the lowest of his career, but
Speaker 3: he had a career worst five point nine barrels per
Speaker 3: plate appearance. That's like, I think the lowest before that
Speaker 3: was like seven point one bottom six percent dole of
Speaker 3: the league in expected batting average of two ten. Even worse,
Speaker 3: his hard hit rate crash to forty point seven percent,
Speaker 3: which was the second worst of his career, and that
Speaker 3: was a two percent decrease year over year. Those trends
Speaker 3: all combined are scary and bad. Could he fix it? Sure?
Speaker 3: If he is more motivated. Projections actually tell the story
Speaker 3: that he will. They see a bounce back two forty
Speaker 3: with a twenty eight twenty eight season. Why is that, though,
Speaker 3: because projections usually will work off of modeled three year performances,
Speaker 3: and if you take the three years, there's some big
Speaker 3: performance in there. But I think what we saw out
Speaker 3: of Robert last year scares the hell out of me.
Speaker 3: So I had him massively high talent is unquestioned, top
Speaker 3: twenty five, top twenty. I think I had him last year.
Speaker 3: I'd knocked him out of the top seventy five because
Speaker 3: these things worry the ever living crap out of me.
Speaker 3: For Dynasty to have that investment, if he fixes it
Speaker 3: going to try to quickly make a turn. But I
Speaker 3: think these trends are going in a really bad direction.
Speaker 2: And you could hardly blame him if it was any
Speaker 2: kind of just mental burden of playing for that White
Speaker 2: Sox team, like anybody.
Speaker 3: And I acknowledge that, like that might be part of it,
Speaker 3: and that might be why he's maybe a bye. He
Speaker 3: maybe he's a sneaky bye if everyone is off of him.
Speaker 2: Another older pitcher, Garrett Cole, only made seventeen starts, obviously,
Speaker 2: after he missed the start of the season in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four. It's the first time he said fewer than
Speaker 2: thirty starts in a season since twenty sixteen, not including
Speaker 2: the COVID shortened twenty twenty season. Thirty four years old, obviously,
Speaker 2: he went eight and five for the Yankees, three forty
Speaker 2: one ERA ninety nine strikeouts in ninety five innings pitched. Again,
Speaker 2: is this an injury slash age related one for a
Speaker 2: guy who's been a regular first rounder in READJAFT leagues
Speaker 2: for a long time.
Speaker 3: Yeah, like some of these guys, I think again, there
Speaker 3: are people that are maybe different or treat some of
Speaker 3: these things different. I will give benefit of the doubt
Speaker 3: for super talented players. Age means sometimes a little bit
Speaker 3: less to me in dynasty than other people. You know,
Speaker 3: if you're like thirty two, people are putting them outside
Speaker 3: the top one hundred. I want to win now, and
Speaker 3: I want those talented players. But Garrett Cole is showing
Speaker 3: some pretty concerning signs. Five straight years of declining K percentage,
Speaker 3: which is down to twenty five percent, while his walk
Speaker 3: percentage dupped up to seventy seven point four percent. Those
Speaker 3: combine if you ever pay attention to K minus walk percentage,
Speaker 3: that's not good. That's not good. That walk percentage, by
Speaker 3: the way, was the second highest of his career. He's
Speaker 3: expected era has risen four straight years, and like we
Speaker 3: talked about with Castillo, Velo declines he had about a
Speaker 3: full mile per hour on his fastball and slider go
Speaker 3: back down at thirty four years old. I don't like
Speaker 3: those trends. He's still a talented play He's still got
Speaker 3: things done, but it's not coming at the same velocity
Speaker 3: or impact of what it was before. And as you
Speaker 3: get older, you know, either there's kind of that like
Speaker 3: do you adjust to be from a power pitcher to
Speaker 3: a kind of maybe I'll call it like a finesse
Speaker 3: type of picture, and I just don't think that's there,
Speaker 3: and it's adjusted and again year over year. Garrett Cole,
Speaker 3: regardless of age, I think, was still seen as a
Speaker 3: top two to three sp in Dynasty. He is not
Speaker 3: there right now in Dynasty. I've got him right around fifty.
Speaker 3: And that might even be being a little bit generous,
Speaker 3: because if those declines continue to grow, it's gonna get
Speaker 3: it's gonna have like a dramatic punch to what his
Speaker 3: value really is. And I wouldn't be shocked if he's
Speaker 3: like outside the top seventy five here come next season. Frankly,
Speaker 3: if if it was Luis Castillo at like eighty or
Speaker 3: Garrett Cole at fifty, think I might even want Luis Castillo.
Speaker 3: I think those guys are closer now where I just
Speaker 3: don't think they were before.
Speaker 1: Last foller here. I was a little surprised by this one.
Speaker 2: Corey Seeger thirty years old at home runs in one
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty three games, So obviously he didn't play
Speaker 2: the entire season. He had some injury stuff he was
Speaker 2: dealing with two seventy eight, three, fifty three, five, twelve,
Speaker 2: triple slash in twenty twenty four ops plus of one
Speaker 2: forty five. So he was good when he was on
Speaker 2: the field, you know, particularly the power numbers. But obviously
Speaker 2: you know, a slightly shortened season. He's on the wrong
Speaker 2: side of thirty. But it's not like he's in his
Speaker 2: late thirties, So can he explain this one a little more?
Speaker 3: Well? His body, I think feels like it's just much
Speaker 3: older from the early thirty eighth injuries. So he and
Speaker 3: I love Corey Seeger, like Corey Seeker's changed, and this
Speaker 3: is part of the rank change. I had him in
Speaker 3: the teams regardless of his age last year because you
Speaker 3: see this guy just big, hard hit numbers, high batting
Speaker 3: average over three hundred, one hundred thirty plus homers, hitting
Speaker 3: three twenty or whatever, like that's what I love. But
Speaker 3: he can't stay on the field, and we also saw
Speaker 3: declines in some of the performance. So here's my biggest worry.
Speaker 3: You're saying the wrong side of thirty, you're just gonna
Speaker 3: be thirty one on April twenty seventh. He might not
Speaker 3: be back until he's thirty one because he had sports
Speaker 3: hernia surgery and they said he will likely be back
Speaker 3: likely is a key term for the beginning of the year.
Speaker 3: If there's no setback, and Corey Seeger is the Mike
Speaker 3: Trout of future run injuries. He has had tons of
Speaker 3: injuries out there, So I am if I'm going to
Speaker 3: be concerned about Mike Trout, I got to be concerned
Speaker 3: about a guy that has had a history of injuries
Speaker 3: as well, that team offensively on the decline. You know,
Speaker 3: also batting average had a little bit of a sink
Speaker 3: right now. I think, you know, putting him at number
Speaker 3: one makes it feel super dramatic, like Cory Schieger is
Speaker 3: the biggest on No, it's just this is a guy
Speaker 3: that I think you could have legitimately taken in the
Speaker 3: second round of dynasty drafts that I don't think you
Speaker 3: should consider until the fourth round, and you are taking
Speaker 3: some inherent risk with injuries. So there's a theme to
Speaker 3: a lot of these. Outside of Robert, who I think
Speaker 3: is dramatically performance based, it's looking for age to injury
Speaker 3: concerns that might have other little like velocity things and
Speaker 3: having a major sports hernia surgery really concerns me about
Speaker 3: Corey Seeger. I need those games out there. I think
Speaker 3: you're just taking on some more inherent risk if you're
Speaker 3: taking him inside the top definitely the top three rounds.
Speaker 2: All right, well, let's go very quickly through our all
Speaker 2: Dynasty Risers team. This is a team you put together.
Speaker 2: There's a couple of them that I'll highlight where I
Speaker 2: might have gone in a different direction.
Speaker 1: So just very quick on each of these catcher.
Speaker 3: Who you got cal Raley cal I thought the catcher
Speaker 3: was actually really difficult because most of the catchers kind.
Speaker 2: Of like totally did not. I was like looking at
Speaker 2: was like, is there a better one than cal Rally?
Speaker 2: And there really wasn't.
Speaker 3: You want to know, Samuel Bissio was like one of
Speaker 3: the higher ones I had, but I'm not going to
Speaker 3: put him on there. But cal Rally changed his value
Speaker 3: by becoming a better hitter, big impactful power. Cal Rally
Speaker 3: is definitely the guy at catcher. First base, Mark Vianto's
Speaker 3: I think he belongs as one of the highest first
Speaker 3: base risers in the in the land. Second base, this
Speaker 3: one I wanted to talk about him in this. I'm
Speaker 3: glad we got to put him here. Kudel Marte, this
Speaker 3: is an over thirty guy that I put on here,
Speaker 3: So don't be like, hey, well you so you like
Speaker 3: to win now, but there's no older guys thirty one
Speaker 3: years old. But guess what, kuld tell Mary became a
Speaker 3: fixture at second base, arguably one of the top second
Speaker 3: basemen to be drafted for next season. MVP candidate. He's
Speaker 3: a core hitter, did everything, hits the ball, still hard
Speaker 3: and more consistent now. Kutel Marte definitely rose up in
Speaker 3: dynasty ranks this year.
Speaker 2: You've got Junior Camonaro a third We already talked about him.
Speaker 2: How about shortstop.
Speaker 3: Zach Netto would have been a player I would have
Speaker 3: loved to have talked about. The only caveat that's holding
Speaker 3: me back. He had an injury and he might miss
Speaker 3: a little bit of this the beginning of the season.
Speaker 3: But Neto was one of those dudes. Power stolen based
Speaker 3: combo twenty thirty could be a twenty forty guy in
Speaker 3: the near future. Became a huge impact bat at the
Speaker 3: top of the Angels lineup. And I had this dynasty
Speaker 3: debate at the end of the year. A guy was
Speaker 3: trying to trade me Robert and he wanted Netto, and
Speaker 3: I was like, dude, I got Netto over Robert in
Speaker 3: Dynasty now, so zach Netto is around a top fifty
Speaker 3: to sixty fantasy player even regardless of the injury.
Speaker 2: This is the position that I wanted to bring up
Speaker 2: somebody else, And maybe the guy I'm about to bring
Speaker 2: up is a year away from being on this list
Speaker 2: because he's a very young minor leaguer and you actually
Speaker 2: already mentioned him earlier, and I was glad you did.
Speaker 2: I'm not even sure if I pronounce it right, Leotlise Devri.
Speaker 2: Is that the correct way to pronounce the Leo divrees.
Speaker 3: Leo Delis, Leo Dallas, Leodahas.
Speaker 2: Okay, it's one of those names are you only ever
Speaker 2: really read instead of here said out loud?
Speaker 1: But Leo devrees.
Speaker 2: So I think he's going to be a top five
Speaker 2: prospect in baseball at some point in his minor league career.
Speaker 1: I'm over the moon about him as a prospect in Dynasty.
Speaker 2: Obviously a couple of years away, but I felt like
Speaker 2: he really broke out in a way where he went
Speaker 2: from Oh, that's an interesting flyer to have in some
Speaker 2: deep Dynasty teams too. This is a priority prospect for me,
Speaker 2: in any sort of prospect slot that I can afford
Speaker 2: to sit on it for a couple of years, so
Speaker 2: I really wanted to bring him up.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I completely agree. It just saw he just played
Speaker 3: in the Arizona Fall League. One of the youngest. He
Speaker 3: was the third youngest to ever hit a homer in
Speaker 3: the Fall League, behind only Ethan Sallace and Bryce Harper.
Speaker 3: He's a phenomenal bat. I really like switch hitter like
Speaker 3: he's got a smooth, smooth bat, better than Ethan Solace's.
Speaker 3: I agree with everything he's saying. He's already a he'
Speaker 3: said the sixth prospect on my prospect list, So he's
Speaker 3: already like their dynasty. He is just two years away.
Speaker 3: I work in three year windows, but he is a
Speaker 3: guy that's valued right around that like one hundred to
Speaker 3: one twenty five range. So I do agree he will
Speaker 3: be a guy we're probably talking about next year.
Speaker 2: By the way, I forgot to mention I was gonna mention,
Speaker 2: and you have Cameron Aar obviously at third. I think
Speaker 2: you can make a case of third in my opinion.
Speaker 2: For Jordan Westburg, we haven't talked about enough Orioles on
Speaker 2: this show. Sure I did not have him that highly
Speaker 2: ranked diacet. I thought he was gonna be He's a
Speaker 2: really solid player. I love having him on my team
Speaker 2: as an Orioles fan. I was more impressed than I
Speaker 2: expected to be with his consistency month a month in
Speaker 2: terms of better power than I expected from him. Obviously,
Speaker 2: he only had eighteen home runs because he missed some
Speaker 2: time with a broken wrist. I think it was when
Speaker 2: he got hit on the hand or something on a pitch,
Speaker 2: so that those numbers look a little diminished. But I
Speaker 2: was really impressed with Westburg, and my estimation of him
Speaker 2: in Fantasy grew a lot last year, so I did
Speaker 2: mean to mention him.
Speaker 3: I would have if we if the All Rise team
Speaker 3: was to not include any of the players we talked about,
Speaker 3: which maybe we should, Westburg would have been the third base.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I was really impressed in this year.
Speaker 2: Matt outfield, James Wood and Roman Anthony are two of
Speaker 2: the names. Again, we've already talked about them. Who's the
Speaker 2: third outfielder you have?
Speaker 3: Well, I kind of prefaced it when we were talking earlier.
Speaker 3: Jackson Merril, Like Jackson Merril does deserve the huge bump
Speaker 3: year over year, And you know, I literally probably didn't
Speaker 3: mention him because we did it in another show. But
Speaker 3: from a Dynasty perspective, Jackson Merrill one of the biggest
Speaker 3: risers in value year over year. He's a twenty twenty guy.
Speaker 3: His power projection and steamer is actually higher than what
Speaker 3: he did. So people are banking on that great outfielder
Speaker 3: that's going to continue to stay out. They're really good average,
Speaker 3: and he is, you know, arguably probably top thirty five.
Speaker 3: He's a second to third round Dynasty if maybe not
Speaker 3: second round player. Maybe his offensive impact is less than
Speaker 3: like James Wood in Cheerio, but it's right there. So
Speaker 3: he's going to join Wood in Anthony for our all
Speaker 3: outfield riser Dynasty team.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's a great call too. Paul skeens obviously at
Speaker 2: starting pitcher and then wrap us up with relief.
Speaker 3: Pitcher Mason Miller. Maybe it's a little bit, but you know,
Speaker 3: closers are really difficult for people in Dynasty to figure
Speaker 3: out how to value them and what to do a lot.
Speaker 3: I mean, Hater was a huge failure last year. The
Speaker 3: only one that really paid off for the high cost
Speaker 3: anyone would have done in Dynasty is a manual class
Speaker 3: guy almost you know, he was in the Cy Young contention,
Speaker 3: so that I think is the tippy top. But Mason
Speaker 3: Miller is if you were going to invest, my little
Speaker 3: strategy probably don't draft a closer in any capacity inside
Speaker 3: the top one hundred, whether you're competing or you know,
Speaker 3: you're kind of just trying to build out your dynasty team.
Speaker 3: Don't do it in the top one hundred. If you
Speaker 3: were to invest, the two to invest are Emmanuel Classe
Speaker 3: and Mason Miller. Mason Miller didn't come into last year
Speaker 3: as a closer. He's still on the a's with puts
Speaker 3: in question, but it's massive strikeout numbers. Guy's going to
Speaker 3: strike out like one hundred every year. He's going to
Speaker 3: save whatever viable games are out there, And in a
Speaker 3: dynasty perspective, he might be the best bet of any closer. Frankly,
Speaker 3: even over class A who's got a little bit of
Speaker 3: age on him, he might be the best bet of investment.
Speaker 3: So the all rank risers, and probably the only closer
Speaker 3: that would be worth making a real investment on is
Speaker 3: Mason Miller.
Speaker 2: We'll wrap up there. Well, fun talk of baseball with you.
Speaker 2: We talked football every week on Tuesdays with ericson but
Speaker 2: you know that you and I both have first loves
Speaker 2: our baseball, so.
Speaker 3: Well, you know what you and I are kind of
Speaker 3: at the forefront of making sure and hopefully people see
Speaker 3: this like we want more and more baseball here at
Speaker 3: Fantasy Pro Any.
Speaker 1: Mayor Or if we've ever credit for pushing for it.
Speaker 3: Too, don't compliment Mayor.
Speaker 1: He's my co host on the cycle.
Speaker 3: I got a course, he's a monster. But just letting
Speaker 3: you guys know, the passion is here, whether it's Dynasty
Speaker 3: or Redraft, and we got more for you than ever before.
Speaker 3: So make sure you are checking out the YouTube channel,
Speaker 3: which probably already are right now. But if you're listening
Speaker 3: on the podcast YouTube dot com sash Fantasy Pros MLB,
Speaker 3: more video content, more shorts than we've ever done in
Speaker 3: the history of Fantasy Pros, and we're gonna keep doing it.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be an awesome twenty twenty five and it's
Speaker 2: already starting now. Also, I forgot to mention this, and
Speaker 2: you reminded me before the show, so I apologize. Your
Speaker 2: dynasty rankings are dropping December first, so for your Welsh
Speaker 2: specific dynasty rankings, be sure everybody listening check out the
Speaker 2: site to hear what he has to say and see
Speaker 2: where he's got these guys actually ranked for your own
Speaker 2: startups and or off season trades.
Speaker 3: Do it, baby, check it out. I'll put an article
Speaker 3: out and it'll be on the consensus ranks, and we'll
Speaker 3: get all those bad boys cleaned up all the baseballs.
Speaker 3: We're gonna click more baseballs around us. Glad to talk
Speaker 3: some dynasty with you.
Speaker 1: We'll get there on that.
Speaker 2: Thanks everybody for tuning in. He's Chris Welschein and Ryan Warmly.
Speaker 2: We'll see again next time. Thanks for listening to the
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