Speaker 1: Hey there, everybody. Welcome to the final edition of the
Speaker 1: twenty twenty I Guess Season NFL Season of the Betting
Speaker 1: Brothers NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris with me
Speaker 1: is Matt Parol. Find us on Twitter at Dan Harris
Speaker 1: Ady and at Sports Talk Matt Matt. This is it
Speaker 1: super Bowl props. It's exciting. Are you ready?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I'm a little sad.
Speaker 1: Oh man, that was so depressing. I was thought it
Speaker 1: was gonna be like, yeah, let's go.
Speaker 2: Now, I'm ready. But it's still I mean, there's a
Speaker 2: couple of things. One, it's the end of the football season,
Speaker 2: so there's no more football for a long time. So
Speaker 2: that's a bummer. I'm excited because it's a heck of
Speaker 2: a game. I'm a little bummed because no matter how
Speaker 2: much they're trying to spin this like it's a super Bowl, Yeah,
Speaker 2: not a super Bowl. Okay, this is not a super Bowl.
Speaker 2: Budweiser is not even advertising in this game. All right,
Speaker 2: this is not a typical year. We got twenty thousand
Speaker 2: fans in Tampa, no radio row, no hype. I mean,
Speaker 2: the Chiefs are showing up on Friday for this game,
Speaker 2: for goodness sakes, and the barber for the Chiefs had
Speaker 2: covid nineteen nearly took down the entire team. For goodness sakes,
Speaker 2: this is just not a typical season. So while I'm
Speaker 2: really excited to get to go with football, I'm bummed
Speaker 2: the year is over. And I'm equally like, man, this
Speaker 2: is not gonna be the same thing as normal.
Speaker 1: I think it's so funny, but I feel like, maybe
Speaker 1: you're right, and maybe that's how everybody feels. I don't
Speaker 1: really feel that way, like, of course it's different, but
Speaker 1: I feel like, probably because you've been doing radio for
Speaker 1: your entire adult life, like you can really tangibly feel
Speaker 1: the difference, right, and not for me, like, of course
Speaker 1: I get it. Of course it's weird and it's not
Speaker 1: the same. But I don't find my enthusiasm for this
Speaker 1: game dimmed whatsoever, even though it's not like the classic
Speaker 1: usual way we're doing it. It might just because you're radio,
Speaker 1: or it might be because I'm an odd human being.
Speaker 1: I don't know the answer to it, but regardless, well, yeah,
Speaker 1: you to your point.
Speaker 2: I mean, so normally, in the week of the Super Bowl,
Speaker 2: there are every every A, B and C list celebrities
Speaker 2: trying to get on the radio, trying to get on
Speaker 2: your radio show, trying to talk right. So, like, the
Speaker 2: biggest name I've had on so far is Barry Sanders.
Speaker 2: Now that's a great, big Hall of Fame football name,
Speaker 2: right right, But normally during football week there's a Barry
Speaker 2: Sanders every day.
Speaker 1: I get it.
Speaker 2: I get So that's the weirdness about it that we're like,
Speaker 2: where is everyone Like, no brand wants their name really
Speaker 2: out there too enthusiastically, nobody wants to do any of
Speaker 2: the stunts of the stupid stuff they always do. So
Speaker 2: it's just different.
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I do get it. And for me, I've
Speaker 1: got the Chiefs and a Bucks game and we're at
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, which I really if I were a
Speaker 1: betting man, which obviously I am, I probably would have
Speaker 1: later bet that we would not have made it to
Speaker 1: this point because, you know, kudos to them and continue
Speaker 1: to dodge, you know, the landmines with the barber and
Speaker 1: all that, keep going until we get the Sunday. All right,
Speaker 1: So we've got a few things to talk about. Number One,
Speaker 1: Matt and I are mostly going to be talking about
Speaker 1: prop bets, although Matt, if it's okay to start by
Speaker 1: talking about the side in the total. We talked about
Speaker 1: it last week, but okay, good, so we'll talk about that,
Speaker 1: see where it has ended up, and then see if
Speaker 1: we like either side of it. But we are going
Speaker 1: to be talking about a lot of player props today,
Speaker 1: but we are also going to be talking about player
Speaker 1: props on Sunday before the Super Bowl at four thirty
Speaker 1: pm Eastern on our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash
Speaker 1: Betting Pros. We are also going to be simulcasting I
Speaker 1: guess it's the right term for it on our Betting
Speaker 1: Pros Twitter account, which is at Betting Pros NFL. I believe, yeah,
Speaker 1: look at us. We may also I think we're probably
Speaker 1: going to also simonich.
Speaker 2: I was not doing that every every weekend, you.
Speaker 1: Know, we try to save it for the special time.
Speaker 1: But you're right, that was my bad. Now on we
Speaker 1: should have been doing that for sure next year, don't worry.
Speaker 1: But for the for the we also may be doing
Speaker 1: it on our Fantasy Pros YouTube account, YouTube dot com.
Speaker 1: It's a big one. But because as you know, we
Speaker 1: have a giant giveaway that we are going to be
Speaker 1: doing on that live stream. At the very least we
Speaker 1: know it's going to be an autographed helmet from a
Speaker 1: former NFL MVP and Super Bowl winner. It's a big one.
Speaker 1: We're gonna have fun. We're gonna be doing player props
Speaker 1: all the time, even though we are also doing them here.
Speaker 1: Some of them will probably overlap, but not all of them.
Speaker 1: That is sponsored by win bet, and we're gonna be
Speaker 1: using their odds for it. So again, go check them
Speaker 1: out and make sure you don't miss at four thirty
Speaker 1: Eastern YouTube dot com slash betting pro So let's talk
Speaker 1: first about the game here, Matt, that we'll get into
Speaker 1: some player props. So when we originally did it, I
Speaker 1: actually can't remember. I should have gone back and listened
Speaker 1: to it. I don't remember if it was at three
Speaker 1: or three and a half the consensus lines. I know
Speaker 1: it was.
Speaker 2: It was a pingpong, but a different book at different prices.
Speaker 1: Okay, so for the most part, it's now settled at three.
Speaker 1: There is bet MGM out there which is at three
Speaker 1: and a half, but our consensus line is three. Even
Speaker 1: at DraftKings, by the way, which was holding at three
Speaker 1: and a half, which we had talked about, it was
Speaker 1: there for a while. It dropped today actually it's dropped
Speaker 1: to three, back up to three and a half.
Speaker 2: And then you know why betmgym's at three At three
Speaker 2: and a half though, right, why two point three million
Speaker 2: dollar bet on Chiefs? Sorry? On one? And a lot
Speaker 2: of it was on the bucks, right or the Chiefs? Wait,
Speaker 2: I'm forgetting which one it was on. I thought that
Speaker 2: was on the It was on the bucks, right, three
Speaker 2: point two point three million on the chief it was. Yeah,
Speaker 2: there was two point three on the Chiefs, right? Minus three?
Speaker 1: Well, I would assume if I mean, the reason would
Speaker 1: hold that it would be at three point five because
Speaker 1: they want money on the bucks. So you assume it
Speaker 1: came in on the Chiefs, right. I have to look
Speaker 1: at this all right, now, this is just it was.
Speaker 2: Oh no, it's on Tampa. I'm wrong, okay, all right,
Speaker 2: it's at BETMGM though, So I was right about that.
Speaker 2: It's at BETMGM, but it was on Tampa. So why
Speaker 2: are they at three point five? Well? Why are they
Speaker 2: at three and a half?
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 2: That's wet there. I forget they'd be at three.
Speaker 1: It's juiced up a little bit. I mean it's at
Speaker 1: minus one fifteen and it's minus one oh five to
Speaker 1: take the Chiefs at minus three and a half. And
Speaker 1: again I'm looking at all of this just so you
Speaker 1: guys know, I'm on bettingpros dot Com. I just go
Speaker 1: to NFL and odds and I look at it and
Speaker 1: it pops up. It's against the spread, and it shows
Speaker 1: me the consensus odds for betting pros do com and
Speaker 1: it shows me at all the various sports books. So
Speaker 1: again I'm in New Hampshire. As I mentioned, I played DraftKings.
Speaker 1: It shows me right now the odds of DraftKings are
Speaker 1: taking the Chiefs laying three. You want to take the trees,
Speaker 1: it's minus one fifteen. You want to take the Bucks
Speaker 1: it's minus one oh six. And you see all these
Speaker 1: books William Hill two and then one. Only one on
Speaker 1: our list right now he's currently at minus three and
Speaker 1: a half and that is bet MGM that So I
Speaker 1: don't know, maybe they're comfortable, maybe they want more money
Speaker 1: on the bucks. I don't know.
Speaker 2: I have to look this up. I wonder if it's
Speaker 2: bet MGM New Jersey or be BETMGM Vegas as well,
Speaker 2: because they split their two. They've got non Nevada in Nevada.
Speaker 2: People don't they're at three and a half here in
Speaker 2: Vegas two. Wow, it's just.
Speaker 1: Minus one incorrect yep, wow.
Speaker 2: In the same lines at both Okay.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's all right.
Speaker 2: With their viability, that's stunning. I have to go where
Speaker 2: we're done here. You know where I'm going. Yeah, I'm
Speaker 2: going to go to be MGM.
Speaker 1: I understand you are, You're going to take it right there. Now,
Speaker 1: the total when we first did it, I remember, was
Speaker 1: at fifty seven and a half one point whatever. Now
Speaker 1: the consensus line is at fifty six. There's fifty five
Speaker 1: and a half over a fandle there's a fifty six
Speaker 1: and a half at bet MGM. But for the most part,
Speaker 1: the books draftings William Hill all points BET. They're all
Speaker 1: at fifty six now for the total. So that has
Speaker 1: come down as we expected, I mean, I think right,
Speaker 1: So all right, how do you feel, Matt? Do you
Speaker 1: have a lead? I mean at three and a half,
Speaker 1: it sounds like you like the bucks and you're gonna
Speaker 1: run and take them if you can.
Speaker 2: Okay, So let me just explain this, bet, okay, because
Speaker 2: this is not done really with logic that this is
Speaker 2: done because I am oh and three and I refuse
Speaker 2: to go oh and four betting against Tom Brady in
Speaker 2: the playoffs. So if I back Brady and he wins, great.
Speaker 2: If I back Brady and he loses, which I think
Speaker 2: is what's gonna happen, I think it's I'm gonna be
Speaker 2: okay with it. I'm okay going down with Brady and
Speaker 2: Gronk and that team over and not backing the Chiefs,
Speaker 2: even though I think I'm doing you all a solid
Speaker 2: by betting the Bucks because that means the Chiefs winning.
Speaker 2: Chiefs cover. So, given how bad I have been in
Speaker 2: the postseason, I'm going to take one for the betting
Speaker 2: pro team, and you guys all bet the Chiefs. I'll
Speaker 2: bet the Bucks. I'll be wrong, and you will cash.
Speaker 1: This is a very scientific analysis that Matt is doing
Speaker 1: right now. He is fading himself basically, is what he
Speaker 1: wants you to do. So I waited, Matt, and when
Speaker 1: we talked about it, originally I said I didn't.
Speaker 2: I didn't.
Speaker 1: First of all, I have a very small wager on
Speaker 1: the side on this because this is a day for props. Okay,
Speaker 1: this is not really a day to go huge on
Speaker 1: the spread.
Speaker 2: It's just I'm betting a quarter unit by the way, yeah, exactly,
Speaker 2: just an idea where I'm betting. This is not I'm
Speaker 2: design a bet. It's a quarter, right.
Speaker 1: I bet a half a unit on the Chiefs layingth
Speaker 1: three when it came down to DraftKings. Really, I wasn't
Speaker 1: convinced that it was going to get there because we
Speaker 1: talked about him. It was at three and a half,
Speaker 1: but I decided to do it when I had three.
Speaker 1: Now it's kind of settled at three, so I didn't
Speaker 1: have to rush to do it, and I think I
Speaker 1: probably got it at like minus one sixteen instead of
Speaker 1: minus one fifteen. But that's fine. But I'm fine with
Speaker 1: the Chiefs leangth three. I do think the Chiefs are
Speaker 1: going to win this game. I could see them dominating
Speaker 1: this game, especially after the way we saw them dismantle
Speaker 1: the Bills and everything like that. But in the end,
Speaker 1: it's not something I'm going heavy on. I do like
Speaker 1: them laying three. I would take them if it was
Speaker 1: three and a half. I just stay away because you know,
Speaker 1: it's my expectation is that it's gonna be a one
Speaker 1: score game. I just don't know whether or not that
Speaker 1: score is going to be within seven or in three,
Speaker 1: But I do think the Chiefs are gonna win, which
Speaker 1: is why I'd be fine too. If you want to
Speaker 1: do the money line, I'd than that Draftings is also
Speaker 1: the lowest money line. It's minus one sixty two. The
Speaker 1: consensus is minus one sixty five, so I'd be fine
Speaker 1: with that. I'm going to be very surprised if the
Speaker 1: Bucks find a way to win this game. What about
Speaker 1: the total, Matt, Do you like it on the over
Speaker 1: now that it's come down to fifty six? Are still
Speaker 1: too high for you?
Speaker 2: No? I like the under. I think it's under play, Okay,
Speaker 2: I think. I mean it's a lot of points. I
Speaker 2: mean I think I don't like it at fifty six.
Speaker 2: I want to over fifty six. That's why I'm going
Speaker 2: to take it before potentially it hits fifty six. I
Speaker 2: think the more money I think money's coming in on
Speaker 2: the under, I think people are going to start to
Speaker 2: I think even the public mind start to get on
Speaker 2: the under. But I'll explain why like the under. It
Speaker 2: correlates with one of my props that I like. I
Speaker 2: just I think this is going to be a slower
Speaker 2: starting game than what we saw. Everyone thinks it's going
Speaker 2: to be like Week twelve, and I think Week twelve
Speaker 2: is really screwing the people's minds.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I think that that's fair. Again, you're running
Speaker 1: to bet MGM after this because BETMGM is at fifty
Speaker 1: six and a half. That's the only book I'm seeing
Speaker 1: right now, Yeah, at fifty six and a half. So
Speaker 1: after this, you're running to place your bet on the Bucks,
Speaker 1: and you're running to place your bet on the under
Speaker 1: the fifty six and a half. I don't have a
Speaker 1: strong feel on it. I lean towards the over, but
Speaker 1: it's so public and everything like that. I do think
Speaker 1: there is going to be scoring in this game. But
Speaker 1: you know, again, you have two relatively strong defenses. I
Speaker 1: am a little concerned about what the loss of Eric
Speaker 1: Fisher is gonna do because I think the Bucks are
Speaker 1: going to get pressure on Mahomes. Does that slow them
Speaker 1: down a little bit? But I'm really staying away from
Speaker 1: the side. If I'm forced to choose, I'd probably go
Speaker 1: over fifty six, but I'm not really getting it very close.
Speaker 1: So let's go to some player props. So before we
Speaker 1: get into it, if you want to see the list
Speaker 1: of player props, I told you can see the consensus
Speaker 1: game lines, the spread, the over under. You can do
Speaker 1: the same with player props. You can see the various
Speaker 1: odds that are available at the various books and they
Speaker 1: vary like this is a time where if you have,
Speaker 1: you know, the option to bet at multiple sports books,
Speaker 1: this is a time where you can really take advantage
Speaker 1: of the differences in some sports books. Go to Bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot com slash prop bets. That's going to show you
Speaker 1: basically all the list of player props that are available.
Speaker 1: That's what I'm looking at right now. We also have,
Speaker 1: as we've mentioned before on this show and a Matt
Speaker 1: has mentioned on its live streaming on The Daily Juice,
Speaker 1: the prop bet cheat cheat creator that's going to give
Speaker 1: you the best available props based on Betting Pros projections,
Speaker 1: based on the available thing lines in the market. It
Speaker 1: will show you the best line that you can get
Speaker 1: out there. It will also show you specifically if you
Speaker 1: want just available in your state. Again, bettingpros dot Com
Speaker 1: slash props for that. And again, as we've said, this
Speaker 1: is a prop bet game. That's where you want to
Speaker 1: be doing on this game instead of going to the
Speaker 1: side or the total. So with that, Matt, let's start
Speaker 1: with some props. Go ahead, you can kick us off.
Speaker 1: What do you like coming into this game?
Speaker 2: Do you want player props first, or do you want
Speaker 2: one quarter? Or do anything that you want to do, Matt, Okay,
Speaker 2: let's start with the first quarter.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 2: Historically speaking, Tom Brady, even go through the games with
Speaker 2: Tom Brady, he has not scored a touchdown. I think
Speaker 2: it's in the maybe ever, he's never scored a first
Speaker 2: quarter touchdown in the super Bowl. I think that's right.
Speaker 2: I think that's right. And so the Patriots, as being
Speaker 2: a Patriot fan that I know, I've made money on this.
Speaker 2: When Brady's in the in the super Bowl, they don't
Speaker 2: score in the first quarter.
Speaker 1: All right? Why, by the way, Matt.
Speaker 2: Because defenses come out roaring in the first quarter. It's
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. Every play, every tackle, every single step
Speaker 2: is put with force and purpose. They know where they're going,
Speaker 2: they've seen the plays, they've studied it, they're coached up.
Speaker 2: These coaches have everything that they need. They've not seen.
Speaker 2: You can't run anything on these guys they haven't seen before.
Speaker 2: So I think defenses are way ahead of the offenses
Speaker 2: early until they get tired. So early. I think there's
Speaker 2: a real chance you see a seven to three first quarter.
Speaker 2: So the numbers ten and a half, Okay, find ten
Speaker 2: and a half. Shop around. It's out there. First quarter
Speaker 2: under ten and a half. It is eight and one
Speaker 2: over the last nine Super Bowls.
Speaker 1: Eight and one under ten and a half in the
Speaker 1: last nine Super Bowls.
Speaker 2: Uh huh.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well I'm looking. So I'm looking at DraftKings right now.
Speaker 1: I don't think that's listed on the on the on
Speaker 1: the game spreads, which, by the way, if you go
Speaker 1: to the page either the player props or the game lines,
Speaker 1: you can also look at game props and all that,
Speaker 1: and yeah it is. It is just Matt under ten
Speaker 1: and a half points minus one fifty over ten and
Speaker 1: a half plus one ten.
Speaker 2: That's too bad. Yeah, like that's not bad. Yeah, that's
Speaker 2: one fifty. That's not bad at all. Take that BA
Speaker 2: all day. Yeah, that's not bad at all.
Speaker 1: No, I do good.
Speaker 2: Sorry, I just I just think that this is going
Speaker 2: to be a different game than the first time around.
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, so you also think the Chiefs are going
Speaker 1: to start a little slo.
Speaker 2: I yeah, I look. Historically speaking, Patrick Mahomes' best quarter
Speaker 2: is the second quarter. Yeah, I think he's the best
Speaker 2: scoring second quarter quarterback in the NFL. So I think
Speaker 2: they score a touchdown. I mean, I think they'll have
Speaker 2: two drives probably in the first quarter. They probably get
Speaker 2: seven out of it. But I think the offense for
Speaker 2: the Bucks will not score a touchdown in the first quarter.
Speaker 2: That's run banking on. So first quarter under ten and
Speaker 2: a half is my first play.
Speaker 1: Okay, So you know, obviously we're doing Betting pros. We
Speaker 1: also have Fantasy Pros, and one of the things we
Speaker 1: did on Fantasy Pros is a couple of the riders.
Speaker 1: They basically said, Okay, how do you feel about the spread?
Speaker 1: What do you think the final score is going to be?
Speaker 1: How do you see this game unfolding? And I basically
Speaker 1: wrote exactly that, Matt, which is, I see this game
Speaker 1: getting off to a slow start. I think that it's
Speaker 1: going to be a close game heading into you know,
Speaker 1: probably almost maybe the end of the second quarter, and
Speaker 1: then eventually you're going to have, maybe in the third quarter,
Speaker 1: you're going to have one of these three touchdowns over
Speaker 1: the course of ten minutes with Mahomes or something going
Speaker 1: crazy and stuff like that. I agree with you, though,
Speaker 1: I think it's going to It's a great stat about
Speaker 1: how slow it starts, and I think that that's that's
Speaker 1: how I see it coming going this game as well.
Speaker 1: So I like that. So I'm going to go to
Speaker 1: a player props. I mostly stuck with player props because
Speaker 1: I do mostly projections. Obviously, I'm going to take Brady
Speaker 1: and I'm going to take him to go over two
Speaker 1: and a half passing touchdowns. Now you're getting plus money
Speaker 1: on this, Okay, it's plus one twenty five is the
Speaker 1: consensus lines. If you look around, you can get it
Speaker 1: at better than that. You can get it at plus
Speaker 1: one thirty five at bet MGM or plus one thirty
Speaker 1: two at FANDLE at DraftKings, and our consensus lines it
Speaker 1: is at plus one twenty five over the year. So
Speaker 1: he's gone over two and a half passing touchdowns eight
Speaker 1: times in nineteen games. All right, So that's why nineteen
Speaker 1: games including the playoffs, that's why you're getting plus money.
Speaker 1: But the total points in the games that he has
Speaker 1: gone over fifty seven, seventy one, fifty four, fifty one,
Speaker 1: sixty nine, sixty five, sixty nine, and then one game
Speaker 1: thirty eight, which you manage to go over. So I
Speaker 1: expect this game to be high scoring. Whether or not
Speaker 1: it hits the fifty six or something like that, it's
Speaker 1: going to be a high scoring game. You know, he's
Speaker 1: going to need points. I think he's going to be
Speaker 1: chasing points because I think eventually the Chiefs are going
Speaker 1: to get out out to a big lead. And they
Speaker 1: allow passing touchdowns in the league. I mean they were,
Speaker 1: you know, certainly in the top half. Even though they're
Speaker 1: good against wide receivers, they do allow a lot of
Speaker 1: passing touchdowns because they put up a ton of points.
Speaker 1: So obviously other teams need to just throw. So for me, look,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't expect I expect them to put
Speaker 1: up three four touchdowns again, because I think it's gonna
Speaker 1: be high scoring. So I think Brady gets at least
Speaker 1: three passing touchdowns here. I'll take it with the plus
Speaker 1: money at plus one twenty five. Tom Brady over to
Speaker 1: an a half passing touchdowns like it.
Speaker 2: I think there's a good chance that if you play
Speaker 2: it out and if you like the over, I think
Speaker 2: both Mahomes and Brady touchdowns. Over is probably to play it.
Speaker 2: But I just look historically speaking, you know, inside the
Speaker 2: red zone. Sure, they've got Leonard Fournette who could vulture
Speaker 2: it and take it away, but historically this team tends
Speaker 2: to score throwing the football.
Speaker 1: Correct, So if I wouldn't. You know, it's funny because
Speaker 1: I thought Matt about like Brady anytime touchdowns because you
Speaker 1: can see him sneaking it in, right. And the Chiefs actually,
Speaker 1: oddly enough allowed a ton of rushing dutchdowns to quarterbacks
Speaker 1: and they weren't all like you know, they weren't all
Speaker 1: the Deshaun Watson types or anything like that. They were
Speaker 1: just kind of guys who snuck it in, like with
Speaker 1: two of it and stuff. So I was thinking about
Speaker 1: doing that, But I really do think that in the end,
Speaker 1: especially given what they're gonna need, I think they're gonna
Speaker 1: need to do one of these things where you know
Speaker 1: that Brady has a deep pass that falls down at
Speaker 1: the two for it to be something like Leonard Fournette
Speaker 1: or even Brady sneaking in. So that is why I like.
Speaker 1: But yeah, the passing dutchdowns over two and a half
Speaker 1: for Mahomes obviously is minus one fifty five, right, Like
Speaker 1: there's a big difference. I think they both are going
Speaker 1: to get there, But I like the Brady one because
Speaker 1: of the plus money. All right, what's your next one?
Speaker 2: My next one is Ronald Jones over rushing yards. I
Speaker 2: think everyone is. I think everybody is talking up Leonard
Speaker 2: Fournette and they're forgetting that earlier in the year when
Speaker 2: Ronald Jones ran the ball consistently when he had I
Speaker 2: think the stat was when he ran the ball for
Speaker 2: fifteen more times or more times they were undefeated. They
Speaker 2: just don't They don't want to throw the ball in
Speaker 2: every down. They want to run the ball. Fournette has
Speaker 2: got the carries because Jones got hurt late in the
Speaker 2: year and he missed the game, and then Fournette came
Speaker 2: in and Fornett was running the ball really hard. But
Speaker 2: I think ultimately, I still think they believe that Ronald
Speaker 2: Jones is the better running back. He went for ninety
Speaker 2: nine yard run against the Panthers on the road. He's
Speaker 2: got that breakaway speed. It could be popped in one run,
Speaker 2: thirty four and a half, thirty five, thirty six, Shop
Speaker 2: around and see where you can get this. But I
Speaker 2: think everyone's on the Fournett prop. At FanDuel today, the
Speaker 2: Fournette prop went all the way up to fifty one
Speaker 2: and a half for his rushing total, and they got
Speaker 2: hit with two max bets on the under that dropped
Speaker 2: it back down to forty eight. I just think everyone
Speaker 2: is looking at this Fournette line and saying, Oh, it's
Speaker 2: gonna be playoff Lenny, here he comes. I don't think so.
Speaker 2: I think you're looking at the wrong running back. I
Speaker 2: think Ronald Jones gets gets the bulk of the carries,
Speaker 2: and I think he's gonna obliterate thirty five yards rushing
Speaker 2: in this game. I think he's gonna go for sixty
Speaker 2: plus here, run the ball for the bucks. I love
Speaker 2: Ronald Jone Zones shop around for the best price, But
Speaker 2: Ronald Jones over rushing prop.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the consensus line of them looking at is thirty
Speaker 1: five and a half. DraftKings is thirty seven and a
Speaker 1: half for whatever reason. So there are those out there,
Speaker 1: but for the most part, thirty five and a half.
Speaker 1: William Hill's at thirty four and a half. So this
Speaker 1: is where I'm saying, like those couple of yards, they
Speaker 1: may seem insignificant, but they're huge at this point because
Speaker 1: any edge you can get in that So this is interesting.
Speaker 1: Matt I've tried to feel comfortable with the running game,
Speaker 1: but I think in the end, I just don't know.
Speaker 1: I mean, Fournette ran really well in this last game,
Speaker 1: and I don't know whether or not they're going to
Speaker 1: turn back to Jones. Jones did get some drives all
Speaker 1: to himself in the last game, So if he gets that,
Speaker 1: if he gets two or three drives that are all his,
Speaker 1: I mean, he could easily do this. If he get
Speaker 1: seven carries something like that, he could easily sort of
Speaker 1: go there. So let me ask you something with that, Matt,
Speaker 1: do you have any interest? This isn't available everywhere, but
Speaker 1: there is most rushing yards in the game. Ronald Jones
Speaker 1: at plus two seventy five. Do you think cause if
Speaker 1: he he's gonna outrush Leonard Fournette, which it sounds like
Speaker 1: you might be thinking. I mean, I assume he's going
Speaker 1: to outrush anybody who's on the Chiefs, right, because I
Speaker 1: don't expect them to. They're not who knows how many
Speaker 1: rushing attempts are gonna try anyway, And so do you
Speaker 1: like that at plus two seventy five?
Speaker 2: I like that a lot, actually, And what's interesting, Fandor's
Speaker 2: got some very unique. They're actually doing head to head
Speaker 2: matchups on rushing props. So you can go, there is
Speaker 2: Leonard Fournette versus uh, Daryl Williams, there's Leonard, that, there's
Speaker 2: there's I don't think Le'Veon Bells involves I do.
Speaker 1: I mean if he plays. If you, I here's here's
Speaker 1: my one recommendation if you. I haven't seen a Leonard
Speaker 1: Fournette like rushing prop out yet because I think the
Speaker 1: books are trying to be careful necessarily to see.
Speaker 2: You mean Le'Veon Bell.
Speaker 1: You mean what did I say, Leonardournette? I apologize, Leveon
Speaker 1: Bell correct thank you for correcting me. Yes, I haven't
Speaker 1: seen a Leveon Bell prop out yet. If it comes out,
Speaker 1: I'm hitting the under whatever it is like, I'm not kidding.
Speaker 1: I think that he may get out there even if
Speaker 1: he's active, hell, get like one carry. And I mean
Speaker 1: you heard the report today right or yesterday it was
Speaker 1: like he signed with the Chiefs so he wouldn't get
Speaker 1: work anygain. I think Daryl Williams is looked better and
Speaker 1: Edwards Hilaire is is healthier now, so forget about that.
Speaker 1: But yeah, you do head to head I mean so
Speaker 1: you probably there's got to be value, I'm sure for
Speaker 1: you with Ron Jones going head tore.
Speaker 2: And then the other one is you can The other
Speaker 2: bet is number of players who rush, who will get
Speaker 2: a rushing attempt in the game the Chiefs are The
Speaker 2: Chiefs are four and a half and the and the
Speaker 2: Bucks are three and a half. So the reason the
Speaker 2: reason why, And someone corrected me on my radio show
Speaker 2: because I said, who is the number five that might
Speaker 2: get the carry? Hardman's four? Okay, so it's Williams, It's
Speaker 2: Clyde verichs Hilaire, it's Mahomes, and it's mcerl Holman.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So then number five. Someone said what about Leveon Bell.
Speaker 1: And I went, oh, no, yeah, I guess.
Speaker 2: Like that could burn you if he's if he's active,
Speaker 2: that could burn you if you're going to bet the under.
Speaker 2: But I had a hard time binding number five for
Speaker 2: the in the same thing for the for the Bucks.
Speaker 2: It's like, okay, so Brady may get a rushing attempt
Speaker 2: to sneak, and then you've got Rojo and you've got Fournette, right,
Speaker 2: and then do you have an Antonio Brown jet sweep?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Who knows even gonna play by the way.
Speaker 2: I mean, you know he's questionable too, So like that's
Speaker 2: where like I was like, hmm, I could actually see
Speaker 2: the under on both those bets come down. I'm not
Speaker 2: playing either one. But it's not always those are availables
Speaker 2: or unique at FANDUL, but those are unique ways of
Speaker 2: betting rushing props.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the thing. Get get creative. I remember like
Speaker 1: one of my favorite wides, I forget what it was.
Speaker 1: It was something with most Raheem Mostert. It was like
Speaker 1: first carry over three yards or something like that. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and it hit. It just makes the rest of the
Speaker 1: day easier. So have have a lot of fun. So
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to a running back, but I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go on the other side. Now here's the thing. I
Speaker 1: do not have a good sense in the same way
Speaker 1: I don't have a good sense of what it's going
Speaker 1: to look like on the Bucks side. I don't have
Speaker 1: a good sense of what it's gonna look like on
Speaker 1: the Chief side, because Edward Hilaire is reportedly pretty healthy
Speaker 1: right now, and again it's against the Bucks. Like, you
Speaker 1: don't want to take running backs against the Bucks, and
Speaker 1: you don't want to running backs on the Chiefs because
Speaker 1: they don't really run the ball. So what I'm gonna
Speaker 1: do is I'm gonna pivot a little bit and I'm
Speaker 1: going to take over twelve and a half receiving yards.
Speaker 1: It set minus one twenty four for Daryl Williams, so
Speaker 1: this is twelve and a half or thirteen and a half.
Speaker 1: I'd take it at thirteen and a half as well.
Speaker 1: It's actually eleven and a half at points bat I
Speaker 1: like that even more. But the reason that I think
Speaker 1: this is because even if Edwards A. Laire is healthy,
Speaker 1: I think Daryl Williams has kind of proven himself recently
Speaker 1: in the playoffs that he's a guy that they feel
Speaker 1: comfortable relying on, and in particular, he's doing really well passbocking,
Speaker 1: and that is what you are going to need desperately
Speaker 1: in this game without Eric Fisher against that Bucks pass rush,
Speaker 1: so I think he's going to be in a lot
Speaker 1: And again, they're going to pass. They're going to pass
Speaker 1: all day long, so I think the chances of him
Speaker 1: getting a dump off are really really high. Again, even
Speaker 1: if Edwards Hlaire is sort of like fully healthy and
Speaker 1: he gets a ton of work in this game, Like
Speaker 1: I think Williams is still going to factor in, and
Speaker 1: I think because he's such a good passbocker, he's going
Speaker 1: to be in there and all that really takes is
Speaker 1: one dump off, one dump off where he gets a
Speaker 1: little running room and gets there. So for me, I'm
Speaker 1: not taking the rushing props on those guys. I actually
Speaker 1: kind of like this is because it's for plus money.
Speaker 1: I don't mind over two and a half catches for
Speaker 1: Darrin Williams as well. That's plus one forty five. Okay,
Speaker 1: that is not likely to happen. You can get it
Speaker 1: at plus one fifty five bet MGM. But this is
Speaker 1: what I kind of think about this game, man. I
Speaker 1: think Williams is going to play a big role, regardless
Speaker 1: of Edwards Laire. I think because he's so good at
Speaker 1: pass blocking, he's going to be in a lot more
Speaker 1: than expected and in unpassing situations, which is basically going
Speaker 1: to be ninety percent of the situations. And I think
Speaker 1: that he's going to get involved enough in like sort
Speaker 1: of the dump off when Mahomes is like, oh my god,
Speaker 1: I'm running for my life for a second to make
Speaker 1: that number work. So for me, I'll take over twelve
Speaker 1: and a half and I'll take the over two and
Speaker 1: a half. I'll put that at receptions, but just because
Speaker 1: you're getting plus one forty five, maybe plus one fifty five.
Speaker 2: Okay, my next two or buy one player, Okay, And
Speaker 2: I'm going to go with Hartman here, and I got
Speaker 2: two plays on him. One. I like his over receiving
Speaker 2: a lot. I think I am going to be fading
Speaker 2: and I'll talk about it later, but the Hill prop
Speaker 2: for passing yards and the Kelsey passing yards prop, I'm
Speaker 2: gonna fade receiving the yard, sorry, not passing receivers. I'm
Speaker 2: just not going to be able to bet them until
Speaker 2: literally right before the game. I'm gonna wait, Oh, we'll
Speaker 2: talk about that. Yeah, Okay. So like those those are
Speaker 2: gonna be plays, but I can't give them out here
Speaker 2: on the podcast because I don't know what the number
Speaker 2: is gonna be. But it should be one hundred. It
Speaker 2: should be one hundred and somewhere, and both of those
Speaker 2: guys should be around one hundred. So we're going I'm
Speaker 2: going under them both. But Hardman, I think the Bucks
Speaker 2: are gonna take away both those two guys as much
Speaker 2: as possible. They're gonna double they're gonna basically say, somebody
Speaker 2: else is beating us. We're not letting Hill, We're not
Speaker 2: letting Kelsey beat us. So that means who else steps up?
Speaker 2: That means I think Hardman's gonna go feast. I think
Speaker 2: he easily gets forty to fifty yards receiving in this game,
Speaker 2: and I like him a score a touchdown to anytime
Speaker 2: touchdown for Hardman. Shop around and find the best rice
Speaker 2: on that. But I think Hardman scores, and I like
Speaker 2: the over on receiving yards for Hardman coming up here.
Speaker 2: You could shop around some of them. Not I saw
Speaker 2: under thirty? Is it still under thirty? What you see?
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's twenty eight and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, all day? Give me Hardman. I think he's got
Speaker 2: fifty yards coming.
Speaker 1: Okay, first of all, this is interesting. His odds on
Speaker 1: touchdowns scored, like anytime touchdowns are a little worse than
Speaker 1: I What are you expecting the odds to be met
Speaker 1: or have you looked at them at all?
Speaker 2: What did I What did I see? Like I think
Speaker 2: I thought I saw like plus seventy five one eighty.
Speaker 1: Oh okay, well they are that's where they are. Then
Speaker 1: they're fine actually met Ready when you run to bed
Speaker 1: MGM right after this his anytime touchdown plus two seventy five.
Speaker 1: So that's way out of line with the rest of
Speaker 1: the market. Like everything else is at basically plus two hundred.
Speaker 1: The contents of line is plus two twenty, but it's
Speaker 1: at plus seventy five. Funny, Matt, I was wondering whether
Speaker 1: or not you were going to go over half a
Speaker 1: that's not available everywhere, but at William Hill over half
Speaker 1: a yard rushing, Like whether or not you thought they
Speaker 1: were going to give him a sweep there? It's plus
Speaker 1: two ninety if you go over half a yard rushing.
Speaker 2: For me, he needs one rushing attempt to go over
Speaker 2: one yard and he hits that.
Speaker 1: As long as he gains a yard, Matt, you never
Speaker 1: know you could get that. Yeah, what do you think
Speaker 1: William Hill? Go get it?
Speaker 2: Matt?
Speaker 1: One over over a half yards tonight.
Speaker 2: I mean they gave him one play, correct, It's basically
Speaker 2: a one play bet, right. You know?
Speaker 1: You know at one point they're going to either do
Speaker 1: the handoff or the little drop into him while he
Speaker 1: comes across, which counts as the past, right, because that's
Speaker 1: what they've done the last two games, one of them
Speaker 1: was a run. Yeah, run of them was the one
Speaker 1: where he drops off the Brady Special.
Speaker 2: And that we needed him to have a catch there.
Speaker 2: A rush there.
Speaker 1: Because I've gone over to his crop the last two
Speaker 1: games exactly right, and that unfortunately was a rush. So
Speaker 1: I didn't do anything for us. So that's what it is.
Speaker 1: But yeah, it's over twenty eight and a half his
Speaker 1: receiving yards. I do like that. I do want to ask,
Speaker 1: because it does come into play for me. Are you
Speaker 1: expecting Sammy Watkins to play in this game? And does
Speaker 1: that matter to you at all?
Speaker 2: When you think about it, it matters, But it doesn't sound
Speaker 2: like he's going to be that healthy when if he
Speaker 2: does play. Yeah, so it's one of those things where
Speaker 2: it's like I'm gonna bank on him not being as
Speaker 2: healthy as they would like him to be. It's the
Speaker 2: super Bowl, so I think he'll play. But I think
Speaker 2: I think if Hardman's the guy who's more healthy, who
Speaker 2: gets open, I think Mahomes will trust him more than
Speaker 2: a gimpey Sammy Watkins.
Speaker 1: And I assume are you assuming that DeMarcus Robinson clears
Speaker 1: the COVID because he's on the COVID list, Because he
Speaker 1: was a close he's playing, but you don't think he's
Speaker 1: playing at all.
Speaker 2: I mean, I for what I mean, he sat in
Speaker 2: that barber chair for for long enough that I don't mean.
Speaker 2: It doesn't sound like.
Speaker 1: Was he the barber because he was put on it earlier.
Speaker 1: He was put on I thought he was.
Speaker 2: He was on the barber chair first. I thought both
Speaker 2: guys were in the barber chair, him in the backup center.
Speaker 1: All I know, I know the backup I know he was.
Speaker 1: He's been on the COVID list for a few days
Speaker 1: because it was a close contact. So I don't know
Speaker 1: whether it's to the barber. Okay, all right, because I
Speaker 1: only both guys were.
Speaker 2: Both guys were the barber, but he went first and
Speaker 2: then the rapid test came back when that when in
Speaker 2: knackup center was and he told him to finish. He
Speaker 2: didn't get up and ran. He didn't get up and
Speaker 2: run for the guy.
Speaker 1: Well, at that point, at that point he's a close
Speaker 1: god dect right, So at that point it doesn't really matter. Okay, right,
Speaker 1: But okay, to your point though, regardless of Robinson, I
Speaker 1: like your hardman, but Todd, we mentioned Sammy Watkins. I'm
Speaker 1: in complete agreement with you, Like, I think he probably
Speaker 1: suits up in this game, but I'm gonna be really
Speaker 1: shocked if he's in any way a factor, which is
Speaker 1: why I like the under thirty six and a half
Speaker 1: receiving yards for him, which is at minus one twelve.
Speaker 1: That's the universal across the across the board, it's it's
Speaker 1: thirty six and a half. It's pretty much anywhere between
Speaker 1: minus one ten and minus one fifteen. And again, you know,
Speaker 1: if DeMarcus Robinson is cleared, that makes it really enticing.
Speaker 1: So I don't think this number is gonna move really regardless,
Speaker 1: So you might as well wait if DeMarcus Robinson's cleared
Speaker 1: from the COVID list and he does come back, and
Speaker 1: forget about it, you pound the under all day long
Speaker 1: for sure. But again he's still limited in practice. Like
Speaker 1: I think he'll play, but I agree with you. It's
Speaker 1: a super Bowl, so he'll try to play, but he's
Speaker 1: not at one hundred percent. You're gonna see mcole hardman.
Speaker 1: I agree with you there. So for me, I'm I
Speaker 1: think we're both kind of viewing this in the exact
Speaker 1: same way. We're basically fading Sammy w and buying Mikol Hardman.
Speaker 1: So I'm with you there, but I'm going with it
Speaker 1: in a different way, and I'm gonna go with the
Speaker 1: under thirty six and a half receiving yards for Sammy Watkins.
Speaker 1: All right, what's next for you?
Speaker 2: So we talked about Ronald Jones over YEP. I think
Speaker 2: touch the shortest touchdown prop at one and a half
Speaker 2: yards is an interesting look given the propensity for these
Speaker 2: teams to get down to the one and then who
Speaker 2: gets to punch it in. It's been a pretty consistent
Speaker 2: bet in the Super Bowl to have a team come
Speaker 2: down and to score off from the one yard LINEEP.
Speaker 2: So I like that under one and a half yards
Speaker 2: for the shortest touchdown for the game. Somebody with a
Speaker 2: push in either. You know, you could take Brady, you
Speaker 2: could take my homes. You could take a punch in
Speaker 2: from Leonard Fournette. I don't mind the Leonard Fournette. I
Speaker 2: am close to going Leonard Fournette anytime touchdown. But since
Speaker 2: I'm looking at Ronald Jones, I'm like, nah, I'm kind
Speaker 2: of like I feel like I might middle myself there
Speaker 2: a little bit. I could lose both bets if I'm
Speaker 2: wrong about that. So I I'm eyeballing it there. I'm
Speaker 2: up there yet, But I think under one and a
Speaker 2: half yards for the shortest touchdown is a play I'm
Speaker 2: gonna make.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it. Actually, I think I think that
Speaker 1: makes a lot of sense because you know you've seen
Speaker 1: even like that. I guess maybe it comes from the two,
Speaker 1: but even the little flip to Kelsey, you know that
Speaker 1: happens right there, right there. Yeah, I like it. By
Speaker 1: the way, anytime touchdown for Leonard Fournette is plus one
Speaker 1: twenty the consensus lines, so not great there, but yeah,
Speaker 1: I agree with you. All right, Let's let's go to Mahomes.
Speaker 1: Let's go to Mahomes props Mahomes.
Speaker 2: I only have one on Mahomes's.
Speaker 1: One of Momes. Okay, well I have two. They don't
Speaker 1: and I don't. I want to make it very very clear.
Speaker 1: I don't love either one of them, but I am
Speaker 1: going to go with the opposite. And I feel like
Speaker 1: part of it is that I got I and everybody
Speaker 1: else who got this is like a famous thing with
Speaker 1: his rushing yard prop last Super Bowl where he he
Speaker 1: took low past it in the third quarter and then
Speaker 1: took like twelve yards and sacks to run off some
Speaker 1: time to go under.
Speaker 2: The seven yard one was the worst. It was. You
Speaker 2: could have survived the four yard, in the three yard,
Speaker 2: but the seven yard one was the worst.
Speaker 1: You mean the best because you bet. I bet under,
Speaker 1: So I love well you did. Oh, I've been under.
Speaker 2: You're the only one I've ever seen. Somebody on Twitter
Speaker 2: was asking that question, does anyone know anyone who won that?
Speaker 2: On that I saw audio boy, So you're right. Wow.
Speaker 1: I like, team up with a close friend of mine
Speaker 1: and we did you know, prop bets for the Super Bowl,
Speaker 1: and we all did it and that was mine, like
Speaker 1: mine because I did projections for it, and I said,
Speaker 1: I have him under. I feel pretty good about it.
Speaker 1: And he just saidled right over it so early and
Speaker 1: I was like, yeah, my bet on that one, but
Speaker 1: my bad. And then he legitimately like wasn't watching at
Speaker 1: the very end of the game, he just stopped watching.
Speaker 1: And I texted him. I was like, you're not going
Speaker 1: to believe this. We won, and he couldn't. He couldn't
Speaker 1: understand how it was possible. But I am going to
Speaker 1: go under again. Here. It's it's just up. It's minus
Speaker 1: one thirty seven and there is if you go on
Speaker 1: fandels minus one twenty two. Oh, actually, I'm sorry, that's
Speaker 1: to go that's to go over. Apologize to go under.
Speaker 1: It's plus one ten. So that that's one of the
Speaker 1: reasons why I like it. Nineteen and a half yards
Speaker 1: is nothing. There are reports that his toe is feeling
Speaker 1: a lot better, but I don't really expect this to be.
Speaker 1: You know, in the past, you've seen him in these
Speaker 1: playoff games and his rushing totals, I mean they spike
Speaker 1: by good twenty yards a game every single time. I
Speaker 1: just there's no way he's one hundred percent healthy. It's
Speaker 1: turf though, Okay, that takes a long time to get better.
Speaker 1: I'm sure he's gonna be fine. And even when he's gimpy,
Speaker 1: he can still move and stuff like that. I do
Speaker 1: also expect them to win. I do expect them to
Speaker 1: be some kneel downs and those couple of yards, those
Speaker 1: three extra yards, I think for me push it over.
Speaker 1: So I actually like the under, and again you're getting
Speaker 1: plus money on it. So plus one ten the under,
Speaker 1: nineteen and a half rushing yards. That's where I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go with mahomes. What's your mahomes prop that you like.
Speaker 2: My Mahomes prop is to ride the turnover luck that
Speaker 2: the Bucks have had to continue into the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: Not saying Mahomes is gonna throw a horrible pick, but
Speaker 2: some one's gonna drop a ball, Someone's gonna get an overthrow.
Speaker 2: Mahomes to be intercepted is plus one forty yep. I
Speaker 2: like Mahomes throw a pick in this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's one thirty five on draftings. I like it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: minus one sixty seven for under the half the half,
Speaker 1: but over half is one thirty five that I'm seeing. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't mind it. I mean, the Bucks are certainly
Speaker 1: figuring out ways to do it. It's Mahomes, so you
Speaker 1: wouldn't expect it. But yeah, it's most likely gonna take something.
Speaker 1: But again, the Super Bowl, there's always weird stuff. Man,
Speaker 1: there's always some weird stuff.
Speaker 2: They're gonna win the game. Okay, Mahomes is seven and four.
Speaker 2: When he throws two picks or more, he has they
Speaker 2: have to turn the ball over, like, they've got to
Speaker 2: get that offense off the field in some form or fashion.
Speaker 2: So either pick in the end zone, you know, a
Speaker 2: pick you know in at no close to midfield, to
Speaker 2: give Brady a short field, Like, if they're gonna win
Speaker 2: the game outright, they're gonna have to find a way
Speaker 2: to stop Patrick Mahomes. It's so hard to repeat because
Speaker 2: there is so much tape on you and what you do.
Speaker 2: And look, I don't I didn't like Todd Bowlds when
Speaker 2: he was with your Jets, but the guy's doing a
Speaker 2: bang up job with this defense right now and he
Speaker 2: may have maybe he should get a second chance at
Speaker 2: a head coaching job. I don't know, but he's a
Speaker 2: great defensive coordinator and he has really come into his
Speaker 2: own here in the postseason.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you can't hold it against anybody how they do
Speaker 1: with the Jets. Okay, you might need, you know, like
Speaker 1: a PhD to succeed in that job. Yeah, I really
Speaker 1: don't mind it, and I'm I'm going to fade Mahomes
Speaker 1: a little bit on this one. It's not crazy. We
Speaker 1: were talking about the passing yards prop and I see
Speaker 1: it as under as well. I don't want to bet it,
Speaker 1: but I see it there. I would rather go with
Speaker 1: the under twenty eight and a half completions rather than
Speaker 1: the Yordage prop. Now that's juiced up a bit to
Speaker 1: minus one twenty four if you go, if you bet
Speaker 1: the over twenty and a half, it's even money. He
Speaker 1: went under that number of completions twenty eight and a
Speaker 1: half in eleven of his sixteen regular season games. And
Speaker 1: really the issue is just for them to the extent
Speaker 1: you're looking at the un it's just the fact that
Speaker 1: they have so many just incredibly long plays, right the
Speaker 1: slants of Tyreek Hill to turn into fifty sixty yard plays,
Speaker 1: the huge you know, every time you know Travis Kelsey
Speaker 1: catches the ball, it's just a fifteen twenty. They can
Speaker 1: snap off a twenty yard play like other teams snap
Speaker 1: off five yard outs. You know, it's just nothing for them.
Speaker 1: So for me, it's not crazy like when I, you know,
Speaker 1: looked at the my initial run of projections, which again
Speaker 1: i'm going to redo before I get was twenty seven.
Speaker 1: So it's not as if it's like, Wow, I have
Speaker 1: this huge edge here. You're not going to find huge
Speaker 1: edges on any of these things. If people who do projections,
Speaker 1: there's no way because they the lines are so sharp.
Speaker 1: But for me, I don't like the yardage as much,
Speaker 1: even though I lean the under, but I like more
Speaker 1: of the pass completions for the ender, because again, I
Speaker 1: expect them to be ahead in this game. I don't
Speaker 1: think they're going to need to go crazy and they're
Speaker 1: going to pass all day long. But I don't. I
Speaker 1: just think with the long passes that the completion number
Speaker 1: in and of itself is the one that kind of
Speaker 1: leans towards the ender. So that's why two unders on
Speaker 1: the homes is rushing yard. Well, we have done under
Speaker 1: rushing yards, under completions and an interception in this game
Speaker 1: from a home, So I gotta be honest, we got
Speaker 1: to rethink our strategy here. Okay, what else?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: What else?
Speaker 2: You want? Only one more? And this is just because
Speaker 2: it's hit so consistently during the regular season. I think
Speaker 2: if I go back and look at the number of
Speaker 2: times Mike Evans cast over receiving yards props for me
Speaker 2: in the regular season, it had to have been one
Speaker 2: of one of my favorite prop bets that I bet
Speaker 2: all year. So I'm just gonna go sixty three, sixty
Speaker 2: three and a half, depending on where you're gonna get
Speaker 2: this number, Mike Evans over receiving yards. Brady just hunts
Speaker 2: for him, He just looks for him all the time,
Speaker 2: and there's always that lollipop go up there and get it,
Speaker 2: big eye type of catch that goes for thirty thirty
Speaker 2: five yards. So all we need is one or two
Speaker 2: of those, and we're good here for Mike Evans over
Speaker 2: sixty three yards receiving. So I'm going over with Mike Evans.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they consent this line of sixty three and a
Speaker 1: half overs minus one oh six, so you can get sixty.
Speaker 1: You can always get a better line for what you want.
Speaker 1: Matt at BETMGM, it's sixty two and a half there. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I have a tough time with this because I think
Speaker 1: that that's what's gonna happen. And you're right, because we
Speaker 1: one thing we know about Brady is he's got to
Speaker 1: keep throwing it up. He's got to keep throwing it deep.
Speaker 1: Doesn't really matter the game situation. As we saw against
Speaker 1: the Packers, He's going to keep going with it. And
Speaker 1: so you can see the Chiefs have just done such
Speaker 1: a good job of limiting wide receivers throughout the entire season.
Speaker 1: But I mean, if I have to go one way
Speaker 1: or the other, I will go over. But I just
Speaker 1: you know, it makes me a little nervous to do
Speaker 1: it for anybody against the Chiefs, but.
Speaker 2: It's my least favorite one. I mean, it's just it's
Speaker 2: problematic because I know that pressure to Brady and Chris Jones.
Speaker 2: You know, there are a lot of people. I'm not
Speaker 2: betting the MVP because I don't trust the voters, and so, like,
Speaker 2: the biggest liability that Vanduel has is JPP to win
Speaker 2: the MVP, which is real hysterical. Which is hysterical, right
Speaker 2: because you can play it out right, if he had
Speaker 2: he has two sacks and the pick six or something,
Speaker 2: then it's like, oh my, he might like but Chris
Speaker 2: Jones equally, people think last year Chris Jones should have
Speaker 2: won the MVP. So it's just it's not it's offensive award.
Speaker 2: It's a quarterback award. So it's always like either Brady
Speaker 2: or Mahomes. Mahomes wins, it's Mahomes, Brady wins, it's Brady.
Speaker 2: But that's why the MVP wise, people have been kind
Speaker 2: of looking and kind of trying to find different values
Speaker 2: in there, and and it's a people have said, well,
Speaker 2: maybe it could be a wide receiver. I mean, what
Speaker 2: happens with Mike Evans goes for two hundred yards and
Speaker 2: four touchdowns or something crazy like that. It's so it's
Speaker 2: it's so hard to pick.
Speaker 1: I mean, Edelman won it, but that wasn't it. I
Speaker 1: feel like, if it's a non quarterback, it's got to
Speaker 1: be in a weird game where it's super defensive, right
Speaker 1: in a game like Edelman.
Speaker 2: The Boston media skewed that. Oh really, that was tough.
Speaker 2: That was the Boston media awarding that to Edelman. That
Speaker 2: was a really tight vote for him to win that. Yeah,
Speaker 2: and that was basically just like all the Boston media
Speaker 2: who had votes in the building were like, yep, it's
Speaker 2: Edelman because no one else wanted to vote for him, right.
Speaker 2: That was that was not an easy victory for him
Speaker 2: to pull down. But he should have won it. But
Speaker 2: it was really close for him to win the MVP
Speaker 2: of that Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you know, you in the in the game
Speaker 1: that the Broncos won in Manning's last game, I forget
Speaker 1: who it was was. Maybe I forget who it was,
Speaker 1: but it was a defensive player in the Seattle game.
Speaker 2: With von Miller, right, yeah, it was von Miller, right,
Speaker 2: he was He was like, he's the last defens a
Speaker 2: player to win the MVP is von.
Speaker 1: Miller right exactly in the Seattle game, I think where
Speaker 1: they destroyed, uh, the Broncos. Before that there was a
Speaker 1: defensive player because you couldn't give it a Wilson because
Speaker 1: the team just crushed. You know that the game is
Speaker 1: just completely out of hand. Other than that, it's almost
Speaker 1: guaranteed to be a quarterback. I think the last like
Speaker 1: regular wide receiver to win and like a really close,
Speaker 1: good game for everybody was like Santonio Holmes in that
Speaker 1: Steelers Arizona game. So a millennium ago basically for me.
Speaker 1: So I'm going to go with a a prop that
Speaker 1: I like. It makes me very uncomfortable to bet it,
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna do it. And it's Tyreek Hill under
Speaker 1: six and a half catches. Now you can get under its.
Speaker 2: Y going yards, You're going receptions.
Speaker 1: I'm going you want to go. So we talked, you
Speaker 1: want to talk about the yards little because you talked
Speaker 1: about it. You want to talk about it with Kelsey.
Speaker 1: The yards are at ninety three and a half. That's
Speaker 1: a lot of yards, and Kelsey is around the same.
Speaker 1: I believe I'm checking it now.
Speaker 2: Kelsey four fandels at ninety eight aren't they.
Speaker 1: For Kelsey Fandles at ninety eight and.
Speaker 2: A half like a tight end? Yeah, ninety I know,
Speaker 2: And you.
Speaker 1: Know what, I can't do it. I can't bet I under.
Speaker 2: I will I can and I will Well, I'm.
Speaker 1: Going to do the worst part and I'm just not
Speaker 1: going to touch either one. Instead, I'm going to go
Speaker 1: wonder on reception. So here's the one thing. If you
Speaker 1: looked right now and again, I don't know what it's
Speaker 1: going to be like when you look at it by
Speaker 1: the time you listen to this, but you look at
Speaker 1: the receptions, you will see that it's all over the
Speaker 1: place between six and a half and seven and a half.
Speaker 1: The difference, obviously is the juice and that if you're
Speaker 1: going under six and a half, you're getting plus money
Speaker 1: on fandle. It's plus one twenty eight to go under
Speaker 1: six and a half receptions. So I'm going to ask you, Matt,
Speaker 1: without looking it up obviously, how many times did Tyreek
Speaker 1: Hill have more Do you think had more than six catches?
Speaker 1: Because it's six and a half, how many times they
Speaker 1: had more than six catches during the regular season? He
Speaker 1: played fifteen y okay, because he took last week off,
Speaker 1: So how many times does he have more than six catches?
Speaker 2: Four?
Speaker 1: Three? I mean, that's the thing. It's not now. Look,
Speaker 1: we're not going to talk about the playoffs at all,
Speaker 1: where he's basically got eight and nine catches and got nuts,
Speaker 1: And we're not going to talk about that first game
Speaker 1: against the Bucks where he had thirteen catches in two
Speaker 1: hundred and six and nine yards. It happens. It happens,
Speaker 1: you know, especially now where he has become the focal point.
Speaker 1: But I kind of do think that you mentioned Bowls again,
Speaker 1: bolds is a good defensive coach for sure. You know,
Speaker 1: hopefully he gets another shot at a head coaching job.
Speaker 1: He's done a really good job in the playoffs, as
Speaker 1: we've talked about. The only game he looked kind of
Speaker 1: shaky was that Washington game, where again I think they
Speaker 1: prepared for Alex Smith. So I'm not going to really
Speaker 1: have too much on him. But I mean, not that
Speaker 1: it matters, there's no revenge factor, but they were, of
Speaker 1: course so embarrassed in that first game with.
Speaker 2: What tyres was a big revenge factor.
Speaker 1: You know, well, you know, at the very least they
Speaker 1: know they have to figure out a way to stop
Speaker 1: that so I think so the under on the yardage
Speaker 1: I don't hate either. It's just I see the scenario
Speaker 1: much more of a little slant going for seventy five yards,
Speaker 1: and I think I see it as him getting peppered
Speaker 1: with targets and catches all day long. That's especially true
Speaker 1: because again without Eric Fisher, they're gonna get a lot
Speaker 1: of pressure on Mahomes. So I don't think you're gonna
Speaker 1: have these chances, a lot of chances for Hill to
Speaker 1: have four seconds to run his really deep route. I
Speaker 1: think Mahomes is gonna focus on getting the ball out quick,
Speaker 1: which again that could be to Tyreek Hill. There could
Speaker 1: be a lot of very quick passes to Tyrek Hill.
Speaker 1: But in the end, I think he'll really makes his
Speaker 1: money on these long passes. That's what they like to
Speaker 1: get him involved, to have roots that take time to develop.
Speaker 1: I don't think they have enough time to do it.
Speaker 1: So for me, especially getting plus money, if it's seven
Speaker 1: and a half, by the way to get the under
Speaker 1: is minus one thirty seven, so it's obviously a huge difference.
Speaker 1: But for me, I'm gonna go with the under six
Speaker 1: and a half. Now, it sounds like Matt you're not
Speaker 1: betting it, but you you lean towards the under on
Speaker 1: both Kelsey and Hill.
Speaker 2: I'm gone on game day, I'll bet it. I'll tell
Speaker 2: you basically, on the live stream, I'll be betting the under.
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna let this thing climb to get to
Speaker 2: beat ups scene number. And here's my thought. And look,
Speaker 2: I'm on a divisive coordinator. So I don't know what
Speaker 2: Todd Bulls is gonna do. But here's what I think
Speaker 2: they're gonna do. I think they're gonna they're gonna copy
Speaker 2: the what the Las Vegas Raiders did. I think they
Speaker 2: can get pressure with four or three down linemen, and
Speaker 2: I think they can play zone behind it, and it's
Speaker 2: gonna open up the middle of the field. And you
Speaker 2: could say, well, maybe they dink and dunk all day long.
Speaker 2: With Kelsey, that's possible, right, but you take away the
Speaker 2: home run hit, and so maybe you look at the
Speaker 2: Kelsey prop and maybe, okay, it's less likely the Kelsey hits,
Speaker 2: and maybe I'll talk myself out of the Kelsey prop.
Speaker 2: But I like the Hill more than the more than
Speaker 2: the Kelsey one, because I think if you are going
Speaker 2: to play what I mean, really, what the Packers should
Speaker 2: have been doing at halftime, which is, no one gets
Speaker 2: behind us. We're just gonna play zone. We're gonna go
Speaker 2: ahead and rush for We're gonna play you want. You
Speaker 2: want to dink and dunk all day long, that's fine,
Speaker 2: we'll clamp down in the red zone. We're gonna give
Speaker 2: you yards, which means maybe Kelsey picks up that hundred.
Speaker 2: But that's how I think they're gonna do it with
Speaker 2: with Thurik Kill, Like, how do they keep him out
Speaker 2: in behind from getting behind them? You just have the
Speaker 2: deepest man. You just you're gonna have one one guy
Speaker 2: deeper than Tarik Kill every single time. You're never gonna
Speaker 2: let him get behind you. So that I think could
Speaker 2: be the strategy. And then if you have offensive line problems,
Speaker 2: you set loose you know, White and JPP, and you
Speaker 2: know if you devea, you let these guys go after it,
Speaker 2: and maybe they're able to clog the middle up enough
Speaker 2: or get to pressure and put pressure on enough that
Speaker 2: makes Mahomes uncomfortable.
Speaker 1: Interesting, So I mean, really, if they do that, it
Speaker 1: is the yardage, less about the receptions really, because you
Speaker 1: know it might be more ding and done. I could
Speaker 1: see that as well. I think that makes a lot
Speaker 1: of sense.
Speaker 2: That's the only way you take him away though, right,
Speaker 2: I mean you can't. You can't put him one on one,
Speaker 2: and you can't even double them. You can't even bracket him.
Speaker 2: He'll run away from you. Right. There's no one in
Speaker 2: that defense that can match his speed. We saw that
Speaker 2: in the first matchup. The only way you're gonna do
Speaker 2: it is a forty yard cushion by taking your strong
Speaker 2: safety or your free safety and putting them forty yards
Speaker 2: ahead of terik kill. So if they throw the bomb,
Speaker 2: that player has a time to come over and knock
Speaker 2: it away.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, all right, that's a that's a that's a
Speaker 1: decent way down. So you think this number, though, is
Speaker 1: going to continue to climb even now, even as Oh.
Speaker 2: There's no debate in my mind this thing. I don't
Speaker 2: think this thing gets real underplay until it gets to
Speaker 2: one hundred and ten or more.
Speaker 1: What that high?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm dead serious. Look at the last Look at
Speaker 2: the last four games, I know, look at the numbers.
Speaker 2: I mean it's absolutely ridiculous. Last game what they had
Speaker 2: one hundred and eighteen, one hundred and twenty. Yeah, I
Speaker 2: mean it's psychotic, what the numbers are doing, and I
Speaker 2: just think everybody it gets to the super Bowl and
Speaker 2: then everybody goes, what the hell happened? Yeah, and what
Speaker 2: you normally have seen during the regular season. It's a
Speaker 2: funky game. There's more timeouts, the halftime is super long,
Speaker 2: the pregame is super long. It's a different flow the game.
Speaker 2: Brady always talks about it. You've got to have experience
Speaker 2: in this game. It's weird. Like the Falcons ran out
Speaker 2: of gas, like they're mentally and physically they just stopped
Speaker 2: thinking because they were tied long day. You're all hyped up,
Speaker 2: and then the fourth quarter comes around and you're like,
Speaker 2: oh my gosh, this game's been going on forever. Because
Speaker 2: you have to run twenty eight commercials, right, They got
Speaker 2: to run twenty eight sixty second commercials in this darn thing,
Speaker 2: so you know, they have to make up commercial breaks
Speaker 2: sometimes if there's long drives and the quarters go fast,
Speaker 2: they got to make up the commercials. So their stop
Speaker 2: of the game left and right, going to make the
Speaker 2: commercials up. This is not a typical football game, and
Speaker 2: a lot of times teams have a tough time with it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, at those are all really good points. Okay,
Speaker 1: this was excellent. I love this podcast and I it
Speaker 1: is a good warm up for the prop livechain that
Speaker 1: we talked about that we're going to be doing on
Speaker 1: Betting pro on YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros again.
Speaker 1: That is going to be on Sunday, Super Bowl Sunday
Speaker 1: at four thirty Eastern to five thirty, and again the
Speaker 1: giveaway is going to be amazing. And let me just
Speaker 1: explain it so you guys like fully understand it. Okay,
Speaker 1: the giveaway, it's not open right now, like nobody's entering.
Speaker 1: We open that giveaway when we get to the live stream. Okay,
Speaker 1: that's gonna be at four thirty and it's only gonna
Speaker 1: be open for an hour. There are not gonna be
Speaker 1: that many entrants into this giveaway to win it. And
Speaker 1: it's awesome. That's gonna unveil it live on the at
Speaker 1: the end of the livestroom. It's going to be awesome.
Speaker 1: I promise you really want to be there again YouTube
Speaker 1: dot com slash Betting Pros four thirty Eastern on Super
Speaker 1: Bowl Sunday. Do not miss it, all right, Matt are
Speaker 1: you are you a little more pumped now? Like we
Speaker 1: did some bets, like I know you were kind of.
Speaker 2: Talking to me on Sunday, alday. I'll be fired up
Speaker 2: on Sunday.
Speaker 1: Alright, Debbie Downer, that's fine, all right, So we will
Speaker 1: talk again on Sunday again four thirty YouTube dot com
Speaker 1: slash betting Pros. We'll talk to you then. Until then,
Speaker 1: enjoy the last few days that we have of the
Speaker 1: twenty twenty NFL season, and we'll talk to you on
Speaker 1: Sunday