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Speaker 1: Welcome back to a Numbers Game podcast, Ryan Gridsky, Thank

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Speaker 1: you all for being here again, and I want to

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Speaker 1: personally thank the five hundred people who subscribe to me

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Speaker 1: on YouTube. In the first week. Thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: I got so many requests to start a you know,

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Speaker 1: putting my podcast on YouTube, and I finally made it happen.

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Speaker 1: And I greatly appreciate how many of you have supported

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Speaker 1: the channel so far. And if you like watching this

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Speaker 1: podcast is of just listening, please subscribe and never miss

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Speaker 1: an episode. Throughout the rest of the year. I'm going

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Speaker 1: to be posting old interviews every Tuesday and Wednesday, so

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Speaker 1: you have a Ryan Gridsky Ryan Gurdusky fixed throughout almost

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Speaker 1: the entire week. So you get to watch all the

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Speaker 1: old interviews throughout throughout the entire year, the ones that

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Speaker 1: you wanted to see, and Coulter and Megan McCain, Margie,

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Speaker 1: Jayla Green, all of them. And I'm looking forward to

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Speaker 1: hearing back from you guys and enjoying that and growing

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Speaker 1: the following following on YouTube. So thank you guys so much. Okay,

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Speaker 1: tomorrow is election Day, and before I begin, we're going

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Speaker 1: to have a post election analysis on Thursday's episode with

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Speaker 1: Zachary Denini, the Great Zachary Deaninni. He was on this podcast.

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Speaker 1: He's an election and data analysis guy. Super smart kid,

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Speaker 1: you know, more intelligent than I and he went to

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Speaker 1: much better schools than I did. So you're going to

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Speaker 1: get that on Thursday. And if you're one of the

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Speaker 1: people who has waited this whole time to go vote,

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Speaker 1: and you said to yourself, I'm only voting on election Day,

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Speaker 1: I'm not voting early, well, tomorrow is your time to shine,

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Speaker 1: get out, make your voice heard. We have big elections

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Speaker 1: across the country, not just in New Jersey, New York City,

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Speaker 1: in Virginia, we have races throughout Pennsylvania, school board elections

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Speaker 1: in Douglas County, Colorado. There are very important school board

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Speaker 1: elections everywhere that are very important. The only elected Republican

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Speaker 1: and all of Seattle is up for reelection, the DSA,

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Speaker 1: the Democratic Socials are trying to take over Detroit. And

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Speaker 1: of course there's lots of different things that my Packs

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Speaker 1: in seventy six Project Pack is involved with. I think

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Speaker 1: we have eighty races across the country for school boards.

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Speaker 1: Local politics matter, and it matters that you show up

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Speaker 1: Your vote goes a lot further in these elections than presidentials,

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Speaker 1: and although they are not sexy, they are very critical

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Speaker 1: to your life. So go vote and bring a friend

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Speaker 1: if you can. Now, let's discuss last minute polling and

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Speaker 1: early voting numbers to see how the election is really

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Speaker 1: shaking up. Okay, first with New York City. I know

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Speaker 1: a lot of people are like New York who cares,

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Speaker 1: They're all going to Hell in a hand basket. I

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Speaker 1: get that sentiment, I understand, but it is the biggest

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Speaker 1: city in America, so we should cover it. Now. Remember

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Speaker 1: when I said a week ago that the electric was

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Speaker 1: very old, that has changed quite a bit. Voters between

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Speaker 1: the ages of eighteen to twenty nine have already blown

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Speaker 1: past their twenty twenty one turnout numbers. That's the single

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Speaker 1: largest group by raw votes is actually voters between the

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Speaker 1: age of thirty to thirty nine, presumably because to vote

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Speaker 1: from Mandanni. That's what everyone is sitting there and saying,

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Speaker 1: it's what the polls, since says, it's what the data says. Fuomo.

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Speaker 1: In order to pull this upset victory that he's looking

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Speaker 1: to do, he really needs middle age and older voters

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Speaker 1: to show up. Young people are coming out in New

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Speaker 1: York to a higher degree than any other place in

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Speaker 1: the country. Right now, seven hundred and thirty two thousand

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Speaker 1: people have voted early. Now, remember the last mayoral election

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Speaker 1: back in twenty twenty one only had one point one

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Speaker 1: million votes throughout the whole election, So we're going to

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Speaker 1: easily blow past that number. We may have got as

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Speaker 1: high as two point five million votes, probably, though two

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Speaker 1: point two to two point three million is pretty safe

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Speaker 1: to say. It is going to be the largest mayoral

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Speaker 1: turnout by by percentage of registered voters since Giuliani in

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Speaker 1: nineteen ninety three, but likely by raw numbers, the highest

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Speaker 1: mayoral turnout ever. A lot of areas that Bendami Mandani

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Speaker 1: is going to win by Saddam Hussein numbers, and I'm

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Speaker 1: not making a joke by referencing to two Muslims with

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Speaker 1: fairly fairly strong beliefs in authoritarianism. But the areas that

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Speaker 1: he's going to win by Saddam Hussein margins have already

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Speaker 1: had a pretty big turnout. I started looking at some

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Speaker 1: preasing data and I'm going to venture to guess some

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Speaker 1: of those areas already have a majority of their votes

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Speaker 1: in not all of them, but a lot of them.

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Speaker 1: For Cuomo to really pull off this upset, he needs

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Speaker 1: more outer Borough and further away from Manhattan to show

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Speaker 1: up older voters, black voters, the Bronx Bronx has not

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Speaker 1: been voting very high, and he needs Republicans. Republicans are

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Speaker 1: voting about even with Democrats. This percentage of turnout goes,

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Speaker 1: but he's going to need Republicans to kick it up,

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Speaker 1: and not because he's going to win a large percentage

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Speaker 1: of the Republican vote. Otherwise, Mandanni is not only going

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Speaker 1: to win, he's going to win an outright majority, which

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Speaker 1: is problematic. It's a big question of is there a

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Speaker 1: cap on socialism? Is there a cap of Oh? Okay,

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Speaker 1: they can win democratic primaries and super safe democratic districts

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Speaker 1: like AOC's, But can they win a competitive election against

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Speaker 1: a moderate Democrat in a general where Republicans and independence vote.

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Speaker 1: That's what's on the table in this election. Let's go

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Speaker 1: to Virginia, which once again they don't vote by party.

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Speaker 1: Really annoys me. So we can say X number of

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Speaker 1: Republicans voted or X number of Democrats voted. We can

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Speaker 1: only judge based upon polling and where the voters are

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Speaker 1: coming from about one point four million people have voted

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Speaker 1: early in Virginia between in person voting and mail in voting.

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Speaker 1: That's a large amount, and that analysts who are really

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Speaker 1: special specialized in Virginia, they don't believe we're going to

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Speaker 1: hit the twenty twenty one turnout numbers, which is about

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Speaker 1: three point three million. Republicans are struggling in the southwest

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Speaker 1: rural part of the state, coal country that is very Republican,

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Speaker 1: while Democrats are really having a problem in the black

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Speaker 1: majority areas around Hampton Roads. That's not going to equalize

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Speaker 1: each other out. But Republicans really need to out of

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Speaker 1: Southwest Virginia specifically, really need to kick it up a

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Speaker 1: notch on election day. Data from L two, which is

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Speaker 1: a data company, not my favorite in the world, but

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Speaker 1: they do produces publicly, so it's easy to find this information.

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Speaker 1: They say this electorate is overwhelmingly older, wider, and more

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Speaker 1: female than elections have been in the past, which is

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Speaker 1: really funny because twenty years ago that would have said

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Speaker 1: it was a Republican victory. Now it's a Democratic victory.

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Speaker 1: Turnout has been especially strong in the Richmond area of

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Speaker 1: Richmond Richmond suburbs, with some Republican counties coming out of

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Speaker 1: the very strongest as far as the turnout goes, and

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Speaker 1: the very weakest. There'll be a few Republican counties that

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Speaker 1: will have larger vote totals than they did in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty one. According to The New York Times, when you

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Speaker 1: estimate for how many people have voted in the past

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Speaker 1: in early voting this election cycle, and you guesstimate where

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Speaker 1: their voting intentions would be, it's about fifty eight percent

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Speaker 1: Democrat forty two percent Republican, which is around where it

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Speaker 1: was in twenty twenty four when Trump lost the state

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Speaker 1: by six points. Republicans really can Republicans were in the

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Speaker 1: same position back in twenty twenty one, but they had

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Speaker 1: such explosive turnout election day that Glenn Youngkin was able

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Speaker 1: to sit there, win and then carry the entire ticket. Now,

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Speaker 1: there have been two recent polls that I want to

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Speaker 1: bring to listeners attention. One is by Atlas Intel. It

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Speaker 1: is the most accurate polster in the last presidential election

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four. It was also the most accurate pollster.

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Speaker 1: Interestingly enough, in the mid term elections in Argentina. They

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Speaker 1: have a very very good track record, they said. Democrat

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Speaker 1: Abigail Spamberger is leading by nine points for the race

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Speaker 1: for governor, Democrat Gazala Hashmi is leading in the race

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Speaker 1: lieutenant governor by six points, and Republican Jason Miariz is

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Speaker 1: leading the race for attorney general by one point. The

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Speaker 1: other poster I want to bring everyone's attention is Emerson. Now,

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Speaker 1: they don't have a perfect track record, but when they're on,

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Speaker 1: they were like on. They said that the Democrats are

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Speaker 1: winning by a larger margin, which would carry Democrat Jay Jones,

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Speaker 1: the very controversial Democrat running for attorney general, over the

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Speaker 1: finish line by two points, and spam Berger is leading

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Speaker 1: by eleven points over Republican wins Sears. I personally don't

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Speaker 1: believe that there's a path for Winsome Seers to win,

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Speaker 1: but let me tell you why it's so important that

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Speaker 1: she does well. If this race is in the single

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Speaker 1: digits for governor, the Republicans will likely carry over the

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Speaker 1: finish line for attorney general. That'll give the Republicans one

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Speaker 1: critical win. If Sears loses by a double digit margin,

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Speaker 1: it will be too large for Jason Miarz to overcome

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Speaker 1: and that will really suffer for Republicans all throughout the ticket.

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Speaker 1: That's why you're seeing Republicans spending last minute money for

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Speaker 1: winsome sears. It's to close the gap in this election.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to New Jersey last, but not least in

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Speaker 1: New Jersey. First, let's start off with a new voter

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Speaker 1: registration data which just came out on Monday. In the

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Speaker 1: month of October, Republicans added thirty one hundred new registered

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Speaker 1: voters there to the overall voter roles right, which is

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Speaker 1: twice as many as the Democrats added. That shows voter enthusiasm.

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Speaker 1: Independents added eighteen thousand new voters. That means since the

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty one election, there are one hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: seven thousand new Republicans that weren't there in twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 1: fifty thousand fewer Democrats, and fifty two thousand fewer Independents. Now,

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Speaker 1: remember Democrats still hold a voter registration advantage of eight

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand, but there's a lot more Republicans

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Speaker 1: that had never had the chance to vote for Chitdarelly

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Speaker 1: back in twenty twenty one. There are one point three

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Speaker 1: three four million people who have voted so far early

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Speaker 1: in this election in New Jersey, with fifty one percent

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Speaker 1: of them being Democrats, twenty nine percent being Republicans, and

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Speaker 1: twenty percent being independents. Chitarelly is going to need Republicans

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Speaker 1: to come out in full force because Democrats have a

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Speaker 1: two hundred and eighty nine thousand voter advantage in the firewall.

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Speaker 1: They basically already banked two hundred and eighty nine thousand,

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Speaker 1: five hundred and fifty two, to be exact, two hundred

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Speaker 1: and eight nine thousand more votes than Republicans. That which

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Speaker 1: is why I always say vote early. I know you

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Speaker 1: might love voting on election day, but this is the game,

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Speaker 1: and you can't hate you know, don't hate the game,

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Speaker 1: hate the player. This is you know, this is what's critical.

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Speaker 1: They have slightly more people. Democrats are already cast bauts

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Speaker 1: in this election than they did in the twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: election twenty twenty one election. In twenty twenty one, they

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Speaker 1: have two hundred and seventy six thousand. This election, they

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Speaker 1: have two hundred and eighty nine thousand, and Chittarelly lost

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Speaker 1: by eighty thousand last time. These new one hundred and

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Speaker 1: sixty thousand Republicans who may just they're slow to the

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Speaker 1: process there don't really vote early. They need to come

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Speaker 1: out because that will be what will save Chittarelly if

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Speaker 1: he has a chance. The only bright spot in the

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Speaker 1: early vote for Chittarelly is that minorities are really not

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Speaker 1: showing up in big numbers in the early vote. Preacings

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Speaker 1: that are a majority white have shown about thirty percent

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Speaker 1: of all those voters. In majority white districts where Democrats

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Speaker 1: have shown so, they have a thirty percent voter turnout

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Speaker 1: Democrats do a majority white precincts versus twenty two percent

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Speaker 1: for white Republicans or Republicans in white preescs that would

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Speaker 1: rather say so majority white precincts thirty percent turnout for Democrats.

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Speaker 1: Among Asians it's twenty six percent, which is perfectly respectable, right.

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Speaker 1: That's the Democrat turnout in Asian majority precincts. Among Latinos

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Speaker 1: and Blacks, it's much lower. It's only fourteen percent of

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Speaker 1: Democrat turnout in Latino majority precincts and only eleven percent

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Speaker 1: in Black majority precincts. Black voters are the most loyal

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Speaker 1: voters the Democratic Party. They're going to win about ninety

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Speaker 1: percent of those votes, maybe eighty five percent, but it's

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Speaker 1: going to be very very high. So if that turnout

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Speaker 1: is low and remains low on election day, that's problematic

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Speaker 1: for Mike Y Cheryl. Mikey Cheryl is going to want

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Speaker 1: minorities to sit there and pick up and go vote

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Speaker 1: on election day because they have not voted early. So

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Speaker 1: this is really where the race stands. The New Jersey Legislature.

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Speaker 1: Republicans may gain or lose a few seats the governor's mansion.

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Speaker 1: Mike Cheryl has a bit of a as a lead,

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Speaker 1: but it's not impossible for Shita a Ready to pull

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Speaker 1: this out. The attorney general race in Virginia is a

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Speaker 1: complete jump ball. Republicans can win it, Democrats can win it.

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Speaker 1: It just depends on how when some Seers does in Virginia.

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Speaker 1: Even though she's likely to lose, she's got to do

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Speaker 1: better than ten points. She's got to lose by seven points,

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Speaker 1: eight point six points, and that will guarantee Jason Yar

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Speaker 1: as a whim. Now now that we've discussed all of this, right,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to heart the whole entire show on

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Speaker 1: just the election, because go vote, Go vote, Go vote,

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Speaker 1: Go vote. I can't emphasize enough. Go call a friend,

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Speaker 1: go vote. That's all we can really do at this point,

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Speaker 1: just vote. I want to talk about the future, namely

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Speaker 1: the future of the Democratic Party, because something flew under

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Speaker 1: the radar last week that not many people in the

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Speaker 1: media paid attention to, but is fascinating, and that is

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Speaker 1: the Democrats released an official autopsy of the twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: four election and what went wrong and why they lost,

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Speaker 1: why they're losing key constituents, and what they have to

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Speaker 1: do to win in twenty twenty six, twenty twenty eight

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Speaker 1: and beyond. The results are fascinating and I want to

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Speaker 1: discuss them. We'll be back with that next And now.

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Speaker 1: Almost everyone, with the exception of the most delusional left

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Speaker 1: wing partisans, knew that the twenty twenty four election could

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Speaker 1: be closed, and the average Democrat really thought they were

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Speaker 1: going to sweak out a victory. They thought that the

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Speaker 1: Roust Belt would stay blue, that Georgia might break their way.

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Speaker 1: So with Nevada, they were very hopeful. Especially in the media.

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Speaker 1: They kind of pretend that this was, you know, going

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Speaker 1: to make history, and they pretended it was really in

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Speaker 1: the back I guess that's what they need to do.

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Speaker 1: But a proper autopsy published by Simon Balazan, Lauren Harper,

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Speaker 1: Pope and Liam Kerr discuss really went wrong to the

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party and the report is fascinating. I need to

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Speaker 1: discuss this with you. The autopsy. It's called Deciding to

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Speaker 1: Win and here's what it states to give ourselves. They're

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Speaker 1: talking as Democrats, to give ourselves the best chance to win.

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Speaker 1: Re recommend the following approach. Democrats need to one focus

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Speaker 1: on our policy agenda and our messaging on an economic

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Speaker 1: program centered on lowering costs, growing the economy, creating jobs,

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Speaker 1: and expanding the social safety net. Advocate for popular economic

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Speaker 1: policies like expanding prescription drug price negotiations rather than unpopular

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Speaker 1: ones like student loan forgiveness. Convince voters that we share

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Speaker 1: their priorities, and focus on issues that voters actually care

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Speaker 1: about and prioritize them high enough, and focus less less

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Speaker 1: on issues like climate change, democracy and abortion. You need

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Speaker 1: to moderate our positions when our agenda is unpopular, including

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Speaker 1: on issues like immigration, public safety, energy production, and identity issues.

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Speaker 1: And lastly, embrace a substantive and rhetorical critique of the

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Speaker 1: outsized political and economic influence of lobbyist corporations and the

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Speaker 1: ultra wealthy. Okay, this is I agree with almost everything

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Speaker 1: I said there and said that's their recommendations. I think

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Speaker 1: that they're completely spot on. But let me dive deeper

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Speaker 1: in what they present. First, voters think the Democratic Party

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Speaker 1: is in a extremist party, and they believe the Republican

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Speaker 1: Party is increasingly a moderate one because Trump moderated the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party. And let me explain, because that is completely

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Speaker 1: counterintuitive to everything you've heard in the media. Since twenty twelve,

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Speaker 1: since Obama's re election, Democratic members of Congress have increasingly

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Speaker 1: supported left wing legislation. There's a ninety nine percent increase

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Speaker 1: in Equality Act, fifty six percent increase in the number

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Speaker 1: of members supporting studies on Reparations, forty seven percent increase

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Speaker 1: in the number of supporting assault weapons bans, forty percent

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Speaker 1: increase in the Green New Deal, forty percent increase in

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Speaker 1: free childcare. The party is moving to the far left

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Speaker 1: in Congress, and it's true that the party is becoming

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Speaker 1: more liberal, but it's more importantly perceived as more liberal.

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Speaker 1: Back in twenty twelve public poll so that forty five

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Speaker 1: percent of the public so that the Democratic Party was

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Speaker 1: too liberal. That number has increased to fifty five percent today.

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Speaker 1: Now the Republican Party started on the same amount forty

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Speaker 1: seven percent of the Republican Party was too conservative. That

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Speaker 1: number right before Trump's election has declined to forty four percent.

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Speaker 1: I know that may not seem like a big difference, right,

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Speaker 1: but it shows trends. A majority saw the Democratic Party

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Speaker 1: as the more liberal one, with a declining minority saying

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Speaker 1: the Republican Party was too conservative. Trump moderated the party right.

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Speaker 1: And I want to first discuss what do you think

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Speaker 1: when you hear the word moderate political moderate? Right, you

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Speaker 1: probably think of Susan College or Joe Manshan, or someone

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Speaker 1: who basically is a member of the establishment of their

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Speaker 1: party that breaks with them once in a while on

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Speaker 1: big issues like they support border security but amnesty for

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Speaker 1: illegal aliens if they are a Republican, or they support

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Speaker 1: Obamacare but not Medicare for all, they're a Democrat. That

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Speaker 1: is not what a moderate is. In twenty fourteen, there

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Speaker 1: was a study by the University of California at Berkeley,

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Speaker 1: and they looked at what political beliefs of moderates. What

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Speaker 1: are the political poliefs and moderates, and it found that

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Speaker 1: moderates rarely take a middle of the road position. Moderates

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Speaker 1: are very inconsistent, but they hold on to quote unquote

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Speaker 1: extreme ideological positions. That's their wording, not mine. During a

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Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty four question survey, they found that

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Speaker 1: self described moderates took at least one extreme position seventy

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Speaker 1: one percent of the time when they asked off it

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Speaker 1: certain issues, because back in twenty fourteen, so you know,

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Speaker 1: issues were a little different. Moderates took left wing positions

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Speaker 1: on contraception, education, marijuana, medicare, and social security, very right

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Speaker 1: wing positions on immigration, and center right or right leaning

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Speaker 1: issues on unions, the environment, and abortion. Number twenty fourteen

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Speaker 1: different laws. I don't think the abortion thing would be

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Speaker 1: the same today, but that's what it was in twenty fourteen.

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Speaker 1: Moderates do not take middle of the road positions on

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Speaker 1: every issue. They pick in shoes. You know, it's cafeteria moderates, moderation.

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Speaker 1: It's you know, I'll take this one, I'll take that one,

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Speaker 1: but not this one. That's what Trump ran on. Remember

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Speaker 1: he went to the right on immigration. This is twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 1: right on immigration, center on economics with tax cuts and tariffs,

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Speaker 1: and then he went to the left on healthcare, like

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Speaker 1: he said, we're going to repeal Obamacare, but we're going

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Speaker 1: to take care of everybody. He really didn't have a

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Speaker 1: laisez faire free market Paul Ryan approach to healthcare. That's

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Speaker 1: important to remember. The Democrats just ran to the left,

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Speaker 1: considerably to the left on every issue. It wasn't enough

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Speaker 1: that Biden wanted taxpayer funding for funded healthcare for illegal aliens,

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Speaker 1: Kamala wanted government funded transurgeries for illegal aliens. Right. There

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Speaker 1: was no stopgap. There was no endless move into the left.

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Speaker 1: Democrats this is, according to their autopsy, focus increasingly on

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Speaker 1: issues that very few people cared about except the far left,

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Speaker 1: and made them feel like they were out of touch

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Speaker 1: with the American people. Issues like race, sex, sexual identity,

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Speaker 1: and DEI exploded in the usage of the DNC platform

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Speaker 1: between twenty twelve and twenty twenty four. While we're it's

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Speaker 1: like economy, middle class deficits, fathers responsibility declined substantially in

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Speaker 1: twenty thirteen of n D percent of voters. So the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party was out of touch and that felled a

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Speaker 1: sixty five percent by twenty twenty four. At the same time,

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Speaker 1: the number of voters who said that Democrats were out

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Speaker 1: of touch when from fifty one to seventy. When asked

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Speaker 1: what voters want the Democratic Party to prioritize, they sat

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Speaker 1: protecting social security and medicare, lowering cost, creating jobs, making

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Speaker 1: health care affordable. You know what they do not want

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Speaker 1: them to focus on, according to the study, protecting illegal aliens,

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Speaker 1: raising taxes to spend on more social programs, fighting climate change,

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Speaker 1: and protecting lgbtkey rights. I'm going to say, it's just

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Speaker 1: transgender stuff, right. It's not gay marriage, it's transgender stuff.

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Speaker 1: The party reflects the priorities right now of college educated,

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Speaker 1: mostly white women primarily, and guests. You know which voters

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Speaker 1: they gained. They gained college educated white women. They guess

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Speaker 1: which voters they lost everyone else, but especially they lost

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Speaker 1: moderates support among martyrs to climb by eleven percent. The

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Speaker 1: report says, quote, as we have shifted our positions and

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Speaker 1: our priorities, voters have increasingly come to see our party

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Speaker 1: as too liberal, insufficiently focused on the economy, border security,

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Speaker 1: and crime, and overly focused on climate change, democracy, abortion,

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Speaker 1: identity and culture, defund the police, transitioning kids, and the

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Speaker 1: anti man rhetoric killed the Democratic Party before Kamma was

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Speaker 1: ever the nominee. Making matters worse the Democrats, as report says,

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Speaker 1: is that the Democratic staffers and donors, the people who

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Speaker 1: oftimes the last word with elected officials before they take

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Speaker 1: votes on critical issues, the ones who help draft policy.

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Speaker 1: They are to the left of the average, not only

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Speaker 1: of the average voter, but of the average Democrat. They

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Speaker 1: are making the party more out of touch. They overwhelmingly

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Speaker 1: come from demographics that are overly college educated, overly white,

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Speaker 1: more female, less likely to attend church. This is part

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Speaker 1: of the beast of the of the machine. Feeding the

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Speaker 1: beast is these groups of people that the Democratic Party

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Speaker 1: is dependent on. This study found that Democrats who were

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Speaker 1: spouse very far lep leads endorsed by Bernie Sanders, Our

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Speaker 1: Revolution or the Squad on average and house races did

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Speaker 1: five percent worse than the median Democrat will those endorsed

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Speaker 1: by blue dog Democrats about five points better. Now, the

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Speaker 1: one thing I found super interesting about the report was

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Speaker 1: that the Democrats supposed to Democrats if you listen to

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Speaker 1: like psychotic leptist podcasts like I do just out of

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Speaker 1: clear enjoyment and because I have the need to harm

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Speaker 1: myself like that. But if you listen to far Let,

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Speaker 1: they always send the twenty foint four election. Don't worry.

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Speaker 1: We have this ground game, the ground game, the ground game.

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Speaker 1: We have this Kamala Harris ground game. The study found

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Speaker 1: that the ground game had absolutely no effect in helping

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Speaker 1: Kamala Harris. It says these two points. Academic research shows

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Speaker 1: the field programs like canvassing and phone banking have minimal

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Speaker 1: impact on changing voters' minds and small impacts on increasing

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Speaker 1: voter Turnoutultimately, there is little evidence to suggest that our

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Speaker 1: party will be able to overcome its problems by knocking

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Speaker 1: on more doors. It cannot persuade voters with our policy

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Speaker 1: agenda and our message. We are unlikely to be able

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Speaker 1: to win via our quote unquote ground game. Ultimately, this

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Speaker 1: is the second point. Ultimately, persuasion and turnout go together.

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Speaker 1: Voters across the political spectrum and across demographic lines want

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Speaker 1: Democrats to focus on costs of living and the best

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Speaker 1: messaging and the most popular policies which tend to focus

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Speaker 1: on kitchen table economic issues appeal to the voters of

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Speaker 1: all kinds, including both swing state voters and sporadic voters.

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Speaker 1: They also state that there is a liberal bias in

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Speaker 1: polling when the polls are asking about policies, so you

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Speaker 1: can't even trust the polling when I say issues on

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Speaker 1: immigration or issues on abortion, there's a liberal bias which

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Speaker 1: substantially overstates support for liberals. This is the Democratic autopsy

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Speaker 1: saying this. This is not Ryan Gerdowski. Overall voters trust

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Speaker 1: Republicans more on border security, immigration, crime, the budget, in flight,

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Speaker 1: and international trade. Most trusted issues for Democrats are LGBT rights,

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Speaker 1: the environment, and climate change. Issues that so few people

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Speaker 1: rank their top three that you could fit them all

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Speaker 1: out of booth at Armies. That's what they care about.

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Speaker 1: This is and they excuse me. They ask the most

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Speaker 1: popular Democratic policies by net support by the American public.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to run down a quick list. This is

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Speaker 1: the top ten most popular Democratic policies. Expanding prescription drug

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Speaker 1: negotiations beyond medicare, banning congressional stock trading, expanding Medicare prescription

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Speaker 1: drug prices from ten to twenty five drugs, Expanding Medicare

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Speaker 1: to cover dental vision and hearing, prevent any cuts of

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Speaker 1: social Security and medicare, Expand mental health programs for veterans,

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Speaker 1: Increase social security benefits for low income seniors, raise them

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Speaker 1: in wage twelve dollars an hour, crack down on a

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Speaker 1: state tax evasion, and protecting interstate abortion access. These are

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Speaker 1: the least popular issues. Abolish the police, abolish prisons, provide

429
00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 1: free healthcare toate legal aliens, lowering voter age to six team,

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00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 1: cutting the police budgets, getting rid of getting rid of

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00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 1: tracking in public schools, increasing refugees emissions, restoring a front

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00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 1: of action in college, abolishing the death penalty, increasing taxes

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Speaker 1: by three percent on Americans making more than seventy five

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars. That's all I heard from Kamala Harris. All

435
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 1: I heard from mainstream. All you hear from mainstream Democrats

436
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 1: on their podcasts and on their television shows are the

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00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 1: ten unpopular issues. I mean, how much more did Rachel

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00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 1: Maddow talk about, you know, abolishing the police or lowering

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00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 1: the voting agent she did about, I don't know, expanding

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00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:40,120
Speaker 1: medicare to cover dental It was not even close. They

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00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 1: are completely out of touch from what the voters actually want. Now,

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Speaker 1: I know you're probably saying, what one of the most

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Speaker 1: popular Republican issues. I'm going to go over it just briefly,

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Speaker 1: because I know you're probably curious. The most popular Republican policies,

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00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 1: according to the Democratic Autopsy are number one, designating cartels

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00:24:56,320 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 1: as terrorist organizations, prohibiting transgender women from competing in women's sports,

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00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 1: eliminating taxes on Social Security, cut taxes by three percent

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00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,400
Speaker 1: on Americans making less than one hundred thousand dollars a year,

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00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 1: requiring id to vote, banning gender affirming care for minors,

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00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 1: lowering the gas tax by ten per cents per gallon,

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00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 1: increasing police funding, imposing work requirements on Medicaid, and ending

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00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 1: all government benefits for illegal aliens. H things I hear

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00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 1: Republicans talk about. I don't know every forty five seconds.

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00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 1: What are the most unrepopular Republican policies? Banning birth controls

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00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,680
Speaker 1: something that no Republican talks about, Launching a national Trump

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00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:37,399
Speaker 1: branded cryptocurrency. I mean, I also very rarely hear that

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00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,679
Speaker 1: ban IVF. Republicans don't support that. In large extend the

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00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 1: Trump twenty seventeen tax cut to high earners. I've said

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Speaker 1: this to congressional Republicans before raising the retirement age, cutting

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00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 1: social Security and medicare to eliminate fraud, take Maifa Preston

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00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 1: off the market. I never heard that that was an issue.

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00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 1: Prohibit shipment of abortion inducing drugs canceled Biden's AI right now,

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00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: something that I probably agree with them and leave NATO.

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00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 1: Democrats don't just have a perception problem. They have a

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Speaker 1: polling problem. They have a staffing problem, they have a

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00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:15,719
Speaker 1: party base problem. They're not in good position to address

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00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:18,440
Speaker 1: those issues in time for twenty twenty eight. And the

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00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 1: best I mean, I don't wish this, but the best

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00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 1: that the Democrats could hope for at this point is

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00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 1: that the economy crashes because their base, their donors, their

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00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 1: staffers are incredibly out of touch, and any Democrat trying

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00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 1: to back off of their issues is suffering a primary challenge.

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Speaker 1: Next up on this podcast is Ask Me Anything. Stay

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00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 1: tuned now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment.

475
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:45,959
Speaker 1: If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment,

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00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 1: email me ryanat numbers gamepodcast dot com. Guys, I love

477
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 1: your questions. It really makes this show special, you know.

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00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,200
Speaker 1: I like to hear from what you're thinking what your

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00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:57,399
Speaker 1: concerns are, what your questions are, and there's no topic

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00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,160
Speaker 1: off issues. I mean, they're probably not, but there there's

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00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,919
Speaker 1: likely no topics office. She just keep it clean. Okay.

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Speaker 1: This cut question comes from Joel. He says, what's your

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00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 1: take on Christian nationalism as a label. Is it worth salvaging,

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00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,639
Speaker 1: redefining or should we just retire it altogether? To me,

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00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 1: it's one of those if by whiskey terms. When I

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00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 1: say I want a nation shape by Christian moral values faith,

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00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 1: family and humility, courage, justice, I get accused of theocracy.

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00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:25,880
Speaker 1: But when leftists call for state fund and morality projects

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00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 1: or enforced DEI through federal grants, it's treated as neutral.

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00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 1: We are passed you for an honest framework. Okay, great question,

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Speaker 1: And first of all, I want to say that I

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Speaker 1: read the document you sent me and it was very interesting,

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00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 1: but I'm not going to go through it on the show.

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00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 1: The term Christian nationalism is very interesting to me because

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00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 1: it's mentioned in the media a lot, but I don't

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00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 1: really know what it means, and I'm not trying to

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00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 1: be cute. I really don't know what it means. I

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00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:52,760
Speaker 1: looked it up and Basically, it infuses the identity of

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00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,199
Speaker 1: being a Christian with that of being an American, and

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00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 1: that we are founded by Christian ideas and principles. And

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00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 1: according to Grock, Christian nationalists want to use the Bible

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00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 1: as a blueprint for America and in policies want certain

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00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 1: Christian principles to reflect the law. Okay, I'm going to

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00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 1: work with that concept because I don't know a better one.

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00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 1: It's not like somebody has written like the clear Definition is,

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00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:14,640
Speaker 1: like the sixteen nineteen project. It's it's kind of hard

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00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,160
Speaker 1: to follow. First of all, I don't think using the

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00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:21,119
Speaker 1: Bible as a blueprint works, mostly because all Christians don't

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00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 1: follow the same Bible. We don't interpret the Bible the

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00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:27,119
Speaker 1: same way we do all don't you know, pick issues

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00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 1: which parts of the Bible we want to follow. Is

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00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 1: Christian nationalism going to forbid the eating of shellfish or

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00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,639
Speaker 1: slavery or child marriage or all some stuff that's in

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00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 1: the Bible. I'm not putting down the Bible. I'm not

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00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 1: putting out Christianity, but that it's very difficult to create

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00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:48,240
Speaker 1: a law on the land based upon a book written

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00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 1: in dead languages several thousand years ago. Do you understand

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00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 1: what I'm saying? It gets very confusing, and I don't

519
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 1: know how it deals with other issues like AI or

520
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 1: other issues like voting intentions, or other issues like immigration.

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00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 1: The Bible doesn't address every issue we're facing in twenty

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00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 1: twenty five America. And there's things in the Bible as

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00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 1: fairly antiquated now that we wouldn't want. And I don't

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00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:12,480
Speaker 1: say that Jesus Christus spouses beliefs, but I'm saying that

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00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 1: there are in certain Old Testament parts of those things. Now,

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00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 1: my opinion on faith is that and I've talked a

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00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 1: little bit about it, but not a lot. I might

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00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,400
Speaker 1: do a Christmas episode talking about faith, but my opinion

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00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 1: on faith is that it is a journey, is on

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00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 1: a guilt trip, and we cannot and we can have

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00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 1: certain morals that we carry out by the state we

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00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 1: already do. Right children, for example, do not have the

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00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,560
Speaker 1: same rights as adults, and rightfully so we kind of

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00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 1: have arbitrary ages that we made up that sixteen, eighteen

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00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 1: and twenty one views you as being a partial and

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00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 1: then full adult, and like I guess a adult plus

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00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 1: you know twenty one you get to do all the

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00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 1: full things, and we have laws over polygamy, for example.

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00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 1: We have our own morals in part of the law,

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00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 1: and I think given where we are as a society today,

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00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 1: it is very difficult to make that universal. And I'm

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00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 1: a great believer in self determination. I believe what is

543
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 1: services we could really hope for is we can have

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00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 1: a government that allows Christian communities to do things like

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00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 1: school prayer, like public celebration of Christian holidays, like certain

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00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 1: types of things, and types of laws that really reflect

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00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 1: their morals and their standards. And we don't make you know,

548
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: New York City do them, or San Francisco do them.

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00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 1: But if a part of the Heartland or part of

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00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 1: the South wanted to do that, I think that they

551
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 1: should have every right to do it. I think that

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00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 1: that should be completely fine, that they have self determination

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00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 1: in many different aspects. I think the problem a lot

554
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 1: of our Supreme Court decisions is that they made rules

555
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 1: for the whole country that don't reflect the entire country,

556
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 1: and that a democratic process would be a lot better,

557
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 1: you know, addressing things like school prayer for example. Now, anyway,

558
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 1: as far as creating a Christian nationalism, I don't think

559
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 1: it's very inclusive I think it's very exclusionary, especially when

560
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 1: you want to big tent. There are a lot of

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00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 1: people of different faiths and of no faiths who are

562
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 1: similar travels to us politically and have our overall moral compass,

563
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 1: and we shouldn't sit there and excise them because they

564
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 1: feel conflicted over not being Christians. Right. Sir Roger Scruten

565
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 1: one of the great philosophers of recent time who passed

566
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 1: away a few years ago. He wrote so eloquently about

567
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 1: Western civilization and the beauty of Catholic churches and the

568
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 1: beauty of Christian morals. But he was an atheist and

569
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 1: he died in Atheists. He lived as an atheist. Now

570
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 1: he was an atheist and he was British right. But

571
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 1: if he wanted to live in America, would he be

572
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 1: excluded because he's not Christian? Because he would have been

573
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 1: an asset. He would have followed and believed in what

574
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 1: we believe in. And I think that that is I

575
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 1: think the need for a kind of moral compass that

576
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 1: encompass con conservatives is very important. But maybe the term

577
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 1: Christian nationalism is not the one I looked up some

578
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 1: polling in between only five to thirteen percent of Americans

579
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 1: identify with that term and support that term. I mean

580
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 1: even though much larger Americans agree with the policies that

581
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 1: they made, like oh, a majority of Americans believe in

582
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 1: school prayer for example, Right, So I would say focus

583
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 1: on the policy goals, not on the term. I don't

584
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 1: think it's how you're going to advance any of your causes.

585
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 1: I think when it comes to policies, things should be tangible,

586
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 1: easy to understand, and they should should try to create

587
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 1: a more prosperous, ordered, and safe society. So that's my

588
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 1: thoughts on it. Anyway, Thank you so much for listening

589
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 1: to podcasts. If you like this podcast, please now subscribe

590
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 1: on YouTube and like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app,

591
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast. I will see

592
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 1: you guys for our post election analysis on Thursday. Go

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00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 1: vote