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Speaker 1: And welcome in. Lake is Live. It is Tuesday, on

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Speaker 1: October fourth, The Over Lower twenty twenty two, proudly presented

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Speaker 1: by Academy Sports and Outdoors, a college football show that

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Speaker 1: just kind of dares to discuss college foot I think

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Speaker 1: it could work, Dare I say it has? With Jam Packed,

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Speaker 1: we're high atop and energetic downtown Nashville, Tennessee. We've got

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Speaker 1: full week six previews and predictions tonight, a number of

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Speaker 1: games to go over. I got a new JP pole.

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Speaker 1: I have already braced for violence in the comment section.

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Speaker 1: Of course, we've got added best bets tonight. I got

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Speaker 1: a big announcement to make mere moments from now, we're

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Speaker 1: actually going to kick the show off with it. They're

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Speaker 1: watching us in, among other places, West Jordan, Utah for Scyth, Georgia,

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Speaker 1: could be West Northeast South. They got every direction covered

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Speaker 1: in the high school scene and Forsyth West Lafayette, Indiana

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Speaker 1: ironically also tuned in. And Laramie, Wyoming. We got to

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Speaker 1: check from Laramy. So thank you guys, wherever you're watching

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Speaker 1: or listening at Lake Kick Josh. Really important to be

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Speaker 1: on the socials Instagram, Twitter, Really important to be on.

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Speaker 1: There a lot of fun to be had this time

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Speaker 1: of year this Thursday, and I'm going to be very

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Speaker 1: very guarded in how i make this announcement. This is

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Speaker 1: not the big announcement this Thursday. We will do this

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Speaker 1: show live from Tuscaloosa, Alabama. That much I've already shared

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Speaker 1: with you paper Pop time. For the first time, I'm

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Speaker 1: going to announce that the show's going to be open

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Speaker 1: to the public. That's the second portion. Here's the third

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Speaker 1: mystery portion. I'm not going to tell you where it's

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Speaker 1: going to be yet, but it's going to be in

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Speaker 1: a place where every one of you will have access

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Speaker 1: to at least if you're in the greater two five

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Speaker 1: Tuscaloosa area. I think that's the area code there. I

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Speaker 1: will let you know sometime Thursday. Follow on Twitter, Instagram

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Speaker 1: at lake Kick Josh, I'll let you know where we're

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Speaker 1: going to be. I got a major announcement to make

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Speaker 1: that as a guy who doesn't even celebrate his own birthday,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to spend too long on but I

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Speaker 1: do want to let you know because I kind of

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Speaker 1: left you in a lurch a few months ago. You

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Speaker 1: and I think have always known what this show is

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Speaker 1: even back to our independent days in Columbus, GA, back

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Speaker 1: in the broom closet. You and I always knew what

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Speaker 1: this show was. Now, it took a while to get

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Speaker 1: management on board, both at that level and at this level.

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Speaker 1: And it's not their fault. It just takes a proof

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Speaker 1: of concept. Sometimes, when you're writing the kind of checks

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Speaker 1: these folks have to write to back these things financially,

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Speaker 1: you don't want to take a bunch of risk on

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Speaker 1: something that's unproven from the independent content creation world. So

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Speaker 1: I don't blame them. I'm just saying it took us

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Speaker 1: a while to develop a rapport to the degree that

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Speaker 1: we were able to get people at this level on board.

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Speaker 1: And I've told this story many times before, but the

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Speaker 1: immense amount of respect I have for Shannon Terry is

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Speaker 1: because he didn't have proof of concept when he hired

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Speaker 1: me here two and a half years ago. It's easy

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Speaker 1: once you have proof, it's easy to buy into something

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Speaker 1: you can see. He hadn't seen it yet, and he

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Speaker 1: came down to Columbus and gave me an opportunity here

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Speaker 1: and he doesn't work. I don't work for him anymore.

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Speaker 1: But man, I owe everything to the opportunity that he

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Speaker 1: gave me here, and once we got here, never had

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Speaker 1: a doubt because I knew it had already worked and

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Speaker 1: I knew you guys would follow. So over the last

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Speaker 1: six months, here's what's been happening in my life. I've

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Speaker 1: been negotiating with this company six months ago. I told

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Speaker 1: him exactly what we needed to make this show everything

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Speaker 1: it could possibly be. For the past six months we

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Speaker 1: have ironed out and hammered out every possible detail we

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Speaker 1: had offers to move this show to a number of different,

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Speaker 1: very very big platforms. This morning, I finalized the deal

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Speaker 1: with CBS in twenty four to seven to keep this

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Speaker 1: show here, to keep myself here. It is a big deal.

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Speaker 1: It is a life changing deal for me. It is

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Speaker 1: a life changing deal for some people associated with this show.

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Speaker 1: Most importantly, it's a big deal for every one of

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Speaker 1: us because it ensures that we get yeses to everything

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Speaker 1: that I asked for, And the main thing I asked

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Speaker 1: for behind the scenes were the thing that we're going

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Speaker 1: to be necessary to keep this show exactly how we

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Speaker 1: wanted it. Thus, the biggest fear you have is as

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Speaker 1: our audience scales, as it has rapidly you get a

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Speaker 1: bunch of new cooks in the kitchen, and you get

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Speaker 1: people who didn't have much to do with the creative

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Speaker 1: control and creation of your product that want to have say, so,

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Speaker 1: we got full control of this thing. You've seen a

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Speaker 1: lot of bells and whistles that have been added. You've

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Speaker 1: seen us able to open our own store. You see

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Speaker 1: what we're able to do on Saturdays. You see that

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Speaker 1: we're able to take the show on the road. A

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Speaker 1: lot of things that enhance the product, nothing that deteriorates

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Speaker 1: or takes away from the integrity of the product we built.

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Speaker 1: I have immense amounts of pride in this because for

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Speaker 1: every other thing I may have been unsure about in life,

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Speaker 1: back in twenty fifteen, I could see this so clearly.

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Speaker 1: I saw the industry changing. I saw the inflection point,

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Speaker 1: sort of that tearing down of a Berlin wall, when

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Speaker 1: you could go live on these platforms that opened the

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Speaker 1: door to so many people, when overhead and distribution were

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Speaker 1: no longer barriers that stood between people like me and

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Speaker 1: the ability one day to access this. It was a

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Speaker 1: game changer, and we made it happen. I say we

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Speaker 1: very very purposefully, because you guys made it such that

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Speaker 1: CBS couldn't say no. You made it such that when

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Speaker 1: we've gone on the road, we get treated equal to

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Speaker 1: the legacy established major media brands. I want you to

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Speaker 1: think about what I just said. We started a YouTube show,

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Speaker 1: and when I go to Tennessee, when I go to Michigan,

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Speaker 1: when I go to LSU this Saturday, we are welcomed

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Speaker 1: and we are treated with the kinds of respect that

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Speaker 1: other national media entities that existed long before I was born,

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Speaker 1: or treated with. That was impossible five years ago, it

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Speaker 1: was impossible four or three years ago, and it changed

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Speaker 1: because of you. Means nothing if I talk into this mic.

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Speaker 1: If you guys don't buy it, and you've bought into it.

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Speaker 1: Of course it's free thanks to Academy Sports and Outdoors.

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Speaker 1: But I appreciate it so much. It's a big deal

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Speaker 1: for me. But the thing I'm most proud about is

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Speaker 1: it means something to other people. And I know, because

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Speaker 1: we have the platform that someone's going to have their

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Speaker 1: life changed. It's why I'm so open about this story.

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Speaker 1: Tell you all the time worked in a fabric warehouse

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Speaker 1: down in Columbus, Georgia. Terrible work, backbreaking work, hated it,

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Speaker 1: needed it but hated it. But I had someone tell

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Speaker 1: me a long time ago, and they ended up being

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Speaker 1: dead on the money. There is a career to be

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Speaker 1: had at your intersection of talent and passion. Every one

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Speaker 1: of you got a set of talents, every one of

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Speaker 1: you have passions. There is an intersection and there is

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Speaker 1: a career there. And if the job doesn't exist, just

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Speaker 1: make it, just create it yourself. It works. I'm a

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Speaker 1: living tribute to the fact that that works. And so

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Speaker 1: as much as I'm proud of what we get to

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Speaker 1: do here, and we continue to get to take this

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Speaker 1: show just to greater heights, and we get to grow

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Speaker 1: the brand and do a lot of fun stuff. And

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Speaker 1: I think CBS immensely and twenty four to seven immensely

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Speaker 1: for giving us that. Man, we get to be exactly

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Speaker 1: what we want to be. I started this show several

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Speaker 1: years ago because I'm just like you. I looked around

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Speaker 1: at the places I used to go for my college

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Speaker 1: football coverage and it sucked. It was gone, it had evaporated,

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Speaker 1: or it had transformed and morphed into something I didn't

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Speaker 1: recognize anymore. The only difference is I thought I had

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Speaker 1: a god given ability to maybe fill the void myself.

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Speaker 1: So we have and we've built a massively successful show

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Speaker 1: now that we get to have fun with and we

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Speaker 1: get to call our own. And when I say our own,

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Speaker 1: I mean ownership. We get to call it our own.

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Speaker 1: So we're going to continue to serve you, guys, and

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Speaker 1: ultimately we'll serve the sport. We'll serve college football. Imagine that,

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Speaker 1: a college football show looking out for the best interest

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Speaker 1: of the sport. So thank you for that. We're going

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Speaker 1: to be here for quite a while. Thank you for that.

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Speaker 1: You made that possible. All Right, let's dive into Week

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Speaker 1: six college football. We're going to make history this week.

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Speaker 1: We're going to be in two places this Saturday. We

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Speaker 1: had the opportunity last year and I fumbled it spectacularly.

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Speaker 1: It was this very week actually last year, so we

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Speaker 1: will not be fooled again. We will be at Tennessee

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Speaker 1: LSU for the first leg this Saturday of the Every

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Speaker 1: Given Saturday Tour. The last three matchups in this series

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Speaker 1: have been decided in Tiger Stadium on the final play. Now,

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Speaker 1: they played a couple of games in Kneeland, most recently.

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Speaker 1: Last time Tennessee went down there was twenty ten and wow, kids,

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Speaker 1: if you don't remember that matchup, I strongly encourage you

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Speaker 1: you'd fast forward to the end. Just watch the final

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Speaker 1: What would you say, Jesse about twenty seconds of the game.

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Speaker 1: It feels like you watched the whole movie crazy, just unimagined,

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Speaker 1: unimaginative drama. This thing has been close. The points spread

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Speaker 1: and this one is close. Tennessee is favored by three.

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Speaker 1: What do we make of this? See a lot of

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Speaker 1: you struck in your chins already. What do you make

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Speaker 1: of this? Well, I look at it, and if you

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Speaker 1: want to know what my path to an LSU win is,

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Speaker 1: I got a couple of things they need to have transpired.

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Speaker 1: They need to make Tennessee wobbly. They need to make

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Speaker 1: that offense wobbly if you just allow them to get going. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: that's a team that could embarrass you. They look like

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Speaker 1: they were on their way to embarrassing Florida a few

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Speaker 1: weeks ago. So I think LSU has to neutralize tempo.

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Speaker 1: They have not dealt with a team that runs the

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Speaker 1: amount of places permitted place per game that Tennessee does now. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: if you can neutralize that, if you get them off

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Speaker 1: the field and defensively, you win third down. That greatly

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Speaker 1: alleviates the strain that's going to put on your third

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Speaker 1: and fourth quarter. It's so easy. I can tell you

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Speaker 1: I just did it. It's easy to say that behind

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Speaker 1: a microphone. It's a lot different, especially when they've got

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Speaker 1: a week's rest to get ready for you. Number two

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Speaker 1: is you got to stand up in the red zone. Now,

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Speaker 1: I got some stats for you. Stats and Info tells

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Speaker 1: me LSU is number one in red zone defense in

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Speaker 1: the SEC. That's the good news for the Tigers. Here's

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Speaker 1: the bad news. You got a group coming into town

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Speaker 1: that is number one in the red zone and offense

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Speaker 1: in the SEC. So I believe me Mal would say,

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Speaker 1: at this point something has to give, and something will give.

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Speaker 1: The fun of it is we don't know yet. That's

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Speaker 1: why we're going to tune in Saturday. And the third

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Speaker 1: thing that I think would greatly behoove the LSU by

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Speaker 1: U Bingals is make turnovers a factor. Why don't you

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Speaker 1: defense number one in the SEC in turnovers forced. Conversely,

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Speaker 1: the other team hadn't had to worry about it at all.

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Speaker 1: Hendon Hooker has zero interceptions his last two hundred and

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Speaker 1: twelve passes. So you see basically an offense in Tennessee

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Speaker 1: that's been humming along really well, and you see a

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Speaker 1: defense in LSU that has shown the capability to do

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Speaker 1: the things that it would take to trip Tennessee up.

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Speaker 1: It's just does it happen Saturday. It's a couple of bounces,

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Speaker 1: It's a couple of third and shorts that that kind

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Speaker 1: of stuff decides these sorts of games. Why is the

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Speaker 1: line so close? Though? I think a lot of people

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Speaker 1: looked at this and thought Tennessee would be favored by

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Speaker 1: a touchdown. I never really expected that, but I know

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Speaker 1: why you feel that way, and it's the x boxing

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Speaker 1: ing of America. It's the high lightening of America. I

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Speaker 1: know that second one's not a word. I doubt the

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Speaker 1: first one's a word. But when you think of prolific

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Speaker 1: offensive teams, your mind thinks in terms of highlights. So

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Speaker 1: it's very easy. When you think, okay, Tennessee at LSU,

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Speaker 1: you get a picture in your mind of a guy

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Speaker 1: in orange and white or white and orange. They're wearing

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Speaker 1: the smoky grays this Saturday. I'm not a fan. I

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Speaker 1: don't know how Colin feels about it. Let's just say

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Speaker 1: the gray uniform. Yeah, Colin hates him too, Do away

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Speaker 1: with the smoky grays anyway, the smoky gray uniform. You

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Speaker 1: just picture a wide receiver streaking down the sideline. You

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Speaker 1: picture a receiver catching one in the slot, taking it

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Speaker 1: to the house eighty yards. Because that's just the way

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Speaker 1: the typical college football mind thinks about prolific offensive teams.

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Speaker 1: And sometimes that happens, sometimes it doesn't. But nevertheless, that's

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Speaker 1: not the way to predict a game and the way

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Speaker 1: that odds are made, that's not the way that they

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Speaker 1: work necessarily. So why is the line so close? Well,

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Speaker 1: if you look at the team profiles and the matchups

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Speaker 1: and whatnot, games are decided by those games are decided

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Speaker 1: by matchups. And the key matchup for LSU hosting Tennessee

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Speaker 1: is Tennessee is one hundred and twenty eighth out of

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Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty one teams in pass yards allowed

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Speaker 1: per game. Translation, if you can throw the ball halfway decent,

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Speaker 1: you got a shot at matching points at the very least,

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Speaker 1: or at the most, if you can make them wobbly,

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Speaker 1: you could turn the tables on them completely. Here is

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Speaker 1: problem number two. LSU did not top one hundred yards

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Speaker 1: passing against Auburn last Saturday. So we see an obvious

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Speaker 1: vulnerability in Tennessee's secondary. Do we have what it takes?

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Speaker 1: If I'm LSU, do we have what it takes to

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Speaker 1: expose that we got home field? I'm gonna talk about

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Speaker 1: that in a second, because there's an edge that's being

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Speaker 1: underlooked and overlooked here. I don't know if one's being underlooked.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know LSU's got home field. Let's talk

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Speaker 1: about it right now. LSU's got home field advantage. That

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Speaker 1: is an edge that's obvious even an eleven am kickoff.

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Speaker 1: I don't care. It's a tough place to go play.

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Speaker 1: Tennessee's certainly caught a break here. I think the timing

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Speaker 1: of the game is pretty inexplicable. I can't say much

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Speaker 1: more because I work for this network, but it kind

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Speaker 1: of confused me when I saw the lineup too. Nevertheless,

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Speaker 1: you know LSU's got home field. It managed. That edge

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Speaker 1: is going to be talked about. But there's another edge

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Speaker 1: that I don't think is getting nearly as much run.

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Speaker 1: What did LSU do last week? They were in a

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Speaker 1: four quarter rock fight against Auburn? They were down seventeen

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Speaker 1: to oh at one point they had to crawl over

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Speaker 1: broken glass to win that game. And what was Tennessee doing.

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Speaker 1: They had their feet propped up in Knoxville, Tennessee, just

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Speaker 1: enjoying it all. And you know what it reeks of

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Speaker 1: to me. It reeks of the Oklahoma State Baylor game.

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Speaker 1: Last week. Baylor goes to Iowa State and they got

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Speaker 1: a four quarter fight. Oklahoma State just sits at home

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Speaker 1: and rests, and so everyone knew that Baylor was home

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Speaker 1: and they're hosting Oklahoma State. It was an error prone

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Speaker 1: Saturday for him. Meanwhile, the rest did Oklahoma State just

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Speaker 1: came in there, took care of business, and I wonder

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Speaker 1: if that's not how this one plays out. I think

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Speaker 1: this is a good time to take a look at

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Speaker 1: what the model thinks. And the model looks at it

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Speaker 1: and it sees Tennessee minus three on the Vegas odds,

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Speaker 1: and it says, we'll do you two better. We'll make

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Speaker 1: it Tennessee minus five. I do not think this is

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Speaker 1: going to be a runaway for Tennessee. And I've got

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Speaker 1: some close personal friends that disagree with me on that.

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Speaker 1: But I do think that second factor that I just

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Speaker 1: mentioned I think it's going to matter in the second half,

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Speaker 1: and I'll tell and that's because of the pacing of

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Speaker 1: Tennessee's offense and what LSU went through last week. The

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Speaker 1: second thing is, I don't know if LSU is fully

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Speaker 1: equipped to take advantage of the weakness in the Tennessee secondary.

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Speaker 1: The reason that line is only at three is because

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Speaker 1: that vulnerability is baked into that number. But if you

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Speaker 1: can't take advantage of it, the line shouldn't be that low.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to bank on the fact that Tennessee is

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Speaker 1: equipped to do what they need to do down there.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, unless you're more aggressive, unless you play

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Speaker 1: a different game than I've seen you play so far

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Speaker 1: this year, I don't know that LSU offensively is fully

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Speaker 1: ready to pounce on that. If they are, they can

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Speaker 1: win the game. Outright. I'm going to play the odds

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Speaker 1: and I'm gonna say Tennessee wins, and I'm going to

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Speaker 1: say Tennessee covers. But I will tell you what the

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Speaker 1: slam dunk is. We will have a lot of fun

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Speaker 1: in Baton Rouge this Saturday that I can assure you of.

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Speaker 1: I gotta you know what I didn't know, I didn't

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Speaker 1: really think about it this way. We have another big

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Speaker 1: announcement and it involves these guys right here, Academy Sports

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Speaker 1: and Outdoors. We gave you a new store in Lexington,

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Speaker 1: Kentucky this past week. Okay, you're welcome. Our fine folks

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Speaker 1: in Louisville probably sat there and said, what about us, Well,

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Speaker 1: you waited one week and I've taken care of you.

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Speaker 1: That's how quickly we build these stores. One week. Jeffersonville, Indiana,

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Speaker 1: right next to Louislle. It's close to Louisville. New Academy

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Speaker 1: opening up this weekend grand opening. Shall I of Supremacy

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Speaker 1: will be on the line again any well, not any

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Speaker 1: of you, Ten of you. I will select randomly ten

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Speaker 1: of you who proved to me that you go to Jeffersonville,

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Speaker 1: Indiana this weekend at any point near Louisville. So everyone

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Speaker 1: in Louisville, get yourself to Jeffersonville, Indiana. If you can

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Speaker 1: prove via any means necessary that you made it to

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Speaker 1: the grand opening, you will be entered, and ten of

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00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:04,200
Speaker 1: you are going to be sent chat live Supremacy. Those

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00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:07,600
Speaker 1: are not available for purchase. They can only be earned.

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Speaker 1: And that is one way that you earn a childice

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Speaker 1: of supremacy. Academy Sports and Outdoors. As you look around

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Speaker 1: and these leaves start to change colors, and one more time,

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00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:19,320
Speaker 1: we got to do the daylight savings thing. Man, you

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00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:21,920
Speaker 1: need new things in your life. You need tents, you

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00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,120
Speaker 1: need canopies, you need grills, you need clothing, you need

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00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:27,360
Speaker 1: all kinds of accessories. You need to shop because Christmas,

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Speaker 1: believe it or not, is right around the corner our

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Speaker 1: Christmas is week one of college football. But saying people

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Speaker 1: celebrate Christmas the week of December twenty fifth. Academy's got

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00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:39,080
Speaker 1: everything you need. Academy dot Com if you can't get

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00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,400
Speaker 1: there in person, has got everything you need. Thank you,

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00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:44,000
Speaker 1: oh man, thank you so much to Academy Sports and Outdoors.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look, we're going to two games in one

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Speaker 1: day Saturday. It's because of Academy that we can do

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Speaker 1: these sorts of things, at least in part due to Academy.

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Speaker 1: So thank you guys so much for that. Okay, Colin,

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Speaker 1: I think it's a good time for me to do

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Speaker 1: two things right now. I got to get the ceremonial

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Speaker 1: e JP pull cough out of the way. Three two one,

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Speaker 1: I have to get the other ceremonial pre JP pull

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Speaker 1: sip of I forgot what I have in here tonight.

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00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:15,360
Speaker 1: I think espresso. We got to get that sip out

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Speaker 1: of the way. I've got to tell you because Jesse's

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Speaker 1: harassing me in the prompter, which we use for one

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Speaker 1: thing on this show, and that is for me to

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Speaker 1: read these words, remember to like the video and subscribe

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Speaker 1: to the channel. We have five words in the teleprompter

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Speaker 1: every show, and that's it. We do want to do that. Okay,

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Speaker 1: you know what, We're gonna do one more game preview

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Speaker 1: before Texas or before jpeople, and it is Texas OU.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little depressed. I'm a little depressed. I thought

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Speaker 1: we were gonna be at TEXASOU this Saturday, but those

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Speaker 1: plans changed. Nevertheless, it is a big game Texas, Oklahoma, Saturday,

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Speaker 1: high noon Eastern time, kickoff on ABC. You know how

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Speaker 1: sometimes they say throw the records out the window. Our

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Speaker 1: buddy's over on solid Verbal. I've always had a really

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Speaker 1: fun SoundBite with that throw the records out the window

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Speaker 1: in this game. Well, you kind of do in Texas OU.

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Speaker 1: You kind of do. Now, I'm not saying the favorite

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Speaker 1: doesn't normally win the game or anything like that. I

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Speaker 1: am saying, if you have an agnostic sports fan in

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Speaker 1: your life, they don't necessarily know much about college football,

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Speaker 1: but they love sports in general. If you don't tell

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Speaker 1: them what the records are, and you just show them

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Speaker 1: this game Saturday, it will be wildly entertaining. This has

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Speaker 1: every given Saturday written all over it, even though we're

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Speaker 1: not taking the tour to the game. I was at

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Speaker 1: this game last year. It blew my mind. Unbelievable. Best

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Speaker 1: look at Lee Corso in the b Rold, best atmosphere

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Speaker 1: out there. So what I'm saying is this game exists

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Speaker 1: on its own planet. Look how tense I am when

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00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:48,960
Speaker 1: I'm talking about it, like a prisoner eating a sandwich.

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Speaker 1: It exists on its own planet. And if you just

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Speaker 1: if you forget for a second that they're a pair

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Speaker 1: of two loss teams, big pride game here, big pride game,

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Speaker 1: I will I will encourage you to do something that

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Speaker 1: nobody else in our industry's gonna encourage you to do

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Speaker 1: this week. Forget about quarterback, Just forget about it. We

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Speaker 1: think Quinn Ewers is going to start for Texas. We

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Speaker 1: have no clue whether Dylan Gabriel is going to start

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Speaker 1: for Oklahoma. My bet is he doesn't. But just just

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Speaker 1: do me a favor for a second if you want

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Speaker 1: to know how this game is actually going to be won.

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Speaker 1: Forget about quarterback for a second. I have some helpful stats.

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Speaker 1: I have a guide for you here. Oklahoma defensively, excuse me,

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Speaker 1: close your ears if you're an Oklahoma fan, Okay, welcome

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Speaker 1: back to the rest of you. Oklahoma defensively, yards per

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Speaker 1: carry allowed last in the Big Twelve. Rush yards allowed

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Speaker 1: per game, last in the Big Twelve. Runs of ten

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Speaker 1: plus yards allowed, last in the Big Twelve. Rushing touchdowns allowed.

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Speaker 1: Guess where they are last in the Big Twelve. It's

395
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Speaker 1: been a bad, bad time as of late. To be

396
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Speaker 1: a Sooner fan feels like just three weeks ago, because

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Speaker 1: it was that they splattered Nebraska all over Lincoln and

398
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Speaker 1: then things got real in a hurry when Big Twelve started.

399
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Speaker 1: B Jeon Robinson, Texas running back is fully capable of

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Speaker 1: doing what Max and Duggan's doing here. Difference is he

401
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:10,000
Speaker 1: does not run with his fist clinched. Bjeon Robinson runs

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Speaker 1: like he's been in the open field before, and so

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Speaker 1: he is second in the big twelve right now in

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Speaker 1: rush yards per game. If Bjeon Robinson just plays his

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Speaker 1: game Saturday, I would suggest to you that Texas need

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Speaker 1: not throw the ball more than fifteen times. They will

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Speaker 1: probably they would need to last year. Texas got up

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Speaker 1: big in this game. So there will be nothing taken

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Speaker 1: for granted because Oklahoma just stormed back. Bjon Robinson has

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00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:42,800
Speaker 1: forced forty six missed tackles this year. Oklahoma missed twenty

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Speaker 1: of them last week. So you see how the matchups

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Speaker 1: quickly start to tilt the way of Texas, and it

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Speaker 1: makes you understand that, along with the potential second string

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Speaker 1: quarterback dynamic there for Oklahoma, why this line is all

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Speaker 1: the way up to Texas minus seven. There's a way.

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Speaker 1: Though I didn't say twenty seven, I said seven. The

417
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:04,159
Speaker 1: spread is a touchdown here. Far crazier things have and

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Speaker 1: will happen this Saturday alone. Here's the path for Oklahoma.

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Speaker 1: They have to hit explosive plays. It's the same way

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Speaker 1: it always is in this game. Now, this is where

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Speaker 1: quarterback very much does matter, because it's a different game.

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Speaker 1: Probably if Dylan Gabriel is not your starter. But Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: as a team, they have the most plays of twenty

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Speaker 1: plus yards. They have the most explosive plays in the

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Speaker 1: Big Twelve. They have to answer on the ground. Though

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Speaker 1: you're thinking about explosive plays and your mind always goes

427
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:37,439
Speaker 1: to pass plays. No, it doesn't have to be that. Listen.

428
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,440
Speaker 1: I'm at this game last year and I'm watching Oklahoma,

429
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 1: and you know they have the scoreboard where they do

430
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 1: the comparative stats and they keep updating them. Bjeonn Robinson

431
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:48,719
Speaker 1: had an incredible run early in this game, so the

432
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 1: early default is Texas is gonna outrun Oklahoma. Oklahoma had

433
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,880
Speaker 1: a three thirty nine to one twenty eight rushing yardage

434
00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,479
Speaker 1: edge by the end of this game last year. Oh,

435
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 1: they're fully capable of running the ball. That's actually what

436
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,680
Speaker 1: they have to do. Oh, you is fourteenth in the

437
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 1: FBS in rushing offense. They're capable of it. And especially

438
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:13,680
Speaker 1: if there's any pride in that locker room in this

439
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 1: I can't account for, at least numerically, I can't quantify

440
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,719
Speaker 1: this part. If there's any pride, I would hope that

441
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 1: we saw it last week answering the case state loss.

442
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 1: We didn't. But if there's any pride coming off back

443
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 1: to back embarrassing losses. Buddy, this is where it shows up,

444
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:32,399
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, if there is pride in

445
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,120
Speaker 1: that locker room and Oklahoma does start running the ball

446
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 1: a little bit, and who knows, forced couple of turnovers

447
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 1: unlikely but not impossible. But that's how you're watching this

448
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,240
Speaker 1: in the second half and you're saying, how is this

449
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 1: the same team that lost to TCU and lost to

450
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 1: Kansas State? The answer will be it's not the same team.

451
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:53,399
Speaker 1: A team you get twelve versions of, and so the

452
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 1: one you see this Saturday, once that game's over, you

453
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:57,440
Speaker 1: wad it up, you throw it in the bin. You're

454
00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 1: done with them. Point being, every given Saturday you can

455
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,639
Speaker 1: get one of these results, and we will. So the

456
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,479
Speaker 1: last time OU lost three straight games, which they are

457
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 1: in danger of doing right now, is nineteen ninety eight.

458
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:13,359
Speaker 1: Do we think history, at least millennium based history, is

459
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 1: going to be made this Saturday in Dallas? What does

460
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 1: the model think? What does Vegas think? You see that

461
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 1: Texas is favored by seven. That is right in line

462
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,439
Speaker 1: with what we think. We've got Texas minus six and

463
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 1: a half. No real feel on obviously a strong lean

464
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 1: either way. There. Here's where I'm going. I think that

465
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 1: this will be competitive. I think that there will come

466
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 1: a time where you start to see discernible edges for Texas,

467
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 1: namely on the ground. And then I think that when

468
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 1: Texas starts to bend this game their way in the

469
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 1: second half, there will be the fresh memory of last

470
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,639
Speaker 1: year and there will be no relenting, there will be

471
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:51,680
Speaker 1: no letting up, and I think Texas is going to

472
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 1: end up stretching this and getting what's pretty rare here,

473
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 1: and that's a double digit whim. I'm going to take

474
00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 1: Texas to win. I'm going to take Texas to cover,

475
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 1: and and you'll have a two loss team winning the

476
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,920
Speaker 1: game here regardless. But if Texas is a two loss team,

477
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,679
Speaker 1: but they were competitive against Bama early and now they

478
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:11,680
Speaker 1: get their quarterback back that was injured in that game

479
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 1: and they beat oh you, it's just an entirely new

480
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 1: outlook on the season. You just basically you hit reset,

481
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,199
Speaker 1: and your odds to win the Big Twelve going into

482
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 1: this weekend are in order, Oak State, Kansas State, and Texas.

483
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 1: Texas is still the third odds on favorite to win

484
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 1: the Big Twelve. Why is that only one of their

485
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 1: losses is in conference, and it's a very very tightly

486
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,360
Speaker 1: compacted conference out there. So I'm taking Texas to win.

487
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:45,719
Speaker 1: Don't embarrass me, Please, don't embarrass me. Now we're going

488
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 1: to do the JP pole. I'm not doing the soliloquy,

489
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 1: a word I hate in and of itself at the

490
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 1: beginning of this. By now, if you've been around, you

491
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 1: know what this is and you know what it's not.

492
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 1: And if you have forgotten, refreshed that's your memory with

493
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 1: the video I put out last week. But this is

494
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 1: only meant to talk about our model and who it

495
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 1: would favor over who. We have huge moves in the

496
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 1: JP Pole this week, huge moves. And the reason is

497
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:14,199
Speaker 1: not because we made huge adjustments. It's because, as I

498
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:15,920
Speaker 1: told you, and I'll go ahead and tell you again,

499
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:21,879
Speaker 1: there is so narrow a gap between number four and

500
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 1: number twenty five in the country right now, a from

501
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 1: an odds making power rating standpoint, that just one little

502
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 1: alteration if I if I adjust or deduct one and

503
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 1: a quarter points from you, you could fallow five or

504
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: ten spots. And that happened in a lot of cases.

505
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:40,640
Speaker 1: That happened this week. So let's take a look. We're

506
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 1: gonna go through it really quick. Twenty five through twenty one,

507
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 1: I think we have some big movers here at Kentucky's

508
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,400
Speaker 1: still there, Arkansas actually, So let's go to twenty five

509
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:53,160
Speaker 1: through twenty one. First, yeah, Florida State still top twenty five.

510
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 1: You see this, You see this drop by Oklahoma. That

511
00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 1: is as big a drop as I think you will

512
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 1: ever see in this kind of format. They dropped sixteen

513
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:06,359
Speaker 1: spots from wherever they were to twenty four. We had

514
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 1: him top ten, they're down at twenty four. Now we

515
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 1: deducted I think four point one points from Oklahoma, which

516
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 1: doesn't sound like much. That is a massive adjustment in

517
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 1: one week. That bumped them down to twenty fourth. LSU's

518
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:26,360
Speaker 1: twenty third, NC State's twenty two, Baylor's down at twenty one,

519
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:30,160
Speaker 1: and now we get into the top twenty. And there's

520
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 1: where I really want to start explaining things to you. Kentucky,

521
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 1: they're pretty much unchanged. You see the result last week.

522
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 1: We see two red zone trips and no points to

523
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:41,320
Speaker 1: show for it. The point is, if you extrapolate that

524
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 1: thousand times, they're probably winning that game more times than not.

525
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,680
Speaker 1: We don't adjust them. They're the same team we thought

526
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: they were last week, Arkansas dropped five points or five

527
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 1: spots to nineteen. That is a kJ Jefferson Arkansas team

528
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 1: quarterback kJ Jefferson. We don't know if he's playing this Saturday.

529
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 1: The smart money is on him not playing against Mississippi State.

530
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 1: If you don't have kJ Jefferson, we do not have

531
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 1: Arkansas as a top twenty five team. So just no,

532
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 1: before they even take the field Saturday, if it's announced

533
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 1: that he's out, don't. We don't back this. They are

534
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 1: a I don't even know where we have them. It's

535
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 1: somewhere closer to thirty than it is nineteen, So just

536
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 1: keep that in mind. Notre Dame jumped up to eighteen.

537
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 1: They played Brigham Young in Las Vegas this week. Their

538
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:28,639
Speaker 1: favored by three and a half. Cincinnati still just lurking

539
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:32,399
Speaker 1: at seventeen. Question is how high can they climb with

540
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 1: a loss? They already got that Arkansas loss. Oregon jump

541
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:40,200
Speaker 1: nine spots Oregon. I think we adjusted them two points

542
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 1: maybe or one in three quarter points, but that was

543
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 1: good enough for them to jump nine spots. That's how

544
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 1: tightly compacted this entire field is outside of the very

545
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 1: very top, all right, top fifteen time we've got Kansas

546
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 1: State there. TCU made a monumental jump, as you would

547
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 1: expect because we've entered that time now where we've removed

548
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 1: all the preseason settings and the model is just totally

549
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 1: baking in this year's results. And when you've got that

550
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 1: Oklahoma game baked in like TCU, does you understand how

551
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: it jumps you from being unranked all the way to fourteenth.

552
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 1: Ole miss unchanged at thirteenth. Mississippi State climbed a couple

553
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 1: of spots to twelve, same rating. This is very, very

554
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 1: minor adjustment. USC is still at eleven. Now. At this

555
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 1: point we had USC rated higher than the AP did.

556
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 1: Now we're a little bit lower on them. We've just

557
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:32,399
Speaker 1: been consistent. The model keeps seeing what it expects to

558
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 1: see from USC, so it's not going to bump them

559
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 1: up or down just because they win or lose, or

560
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 1: whatever the case may be. Top ten time Texas is

561
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 1: at ten. Texas has two losses. I explained this last week.

562
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 1: I'll do it one more time. The only thing that

563
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 1: this cares about is, obviously, who would be favored against

564
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 1: two this Texas. This version of Texas in this power

565
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 1: rating is with Quinn Yewers. The model thinks that Texas

566
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 1: is a sly an undefeated caliber team right now because

567
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 1: it looks back and it thinks to itself. If they

568
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: got quinn Ewers the whole game, they may beat Bama.

569
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 1: I think they beat Texas Tech. The point is the

570
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 1: caliber of team they are right this moment is the

571
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 1: caliber they are with quinn Ewers, and it is factoring

572
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 1: that in. That's why it has him at ten right now.

573
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 1: Penn State is at nine. Dropped a couple spots. I

574
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 1: think that was other teams bumping up, like Oklahoma State.

575
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State rose from twelve to eight. They are now

576
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 1: the number eighteen. Utah is still there. I'm going to

577
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 1: talk about Utah in a little while. Pack twelve paid here.

578
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 1: Utah at seven, Tennessee at number six. They fell, but

579
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 1: they didn't even play. There was no adjustment there all right.

580
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 1: Top five time. This is a big mover. Clumbson total readjustment.

581
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 1: Manual readjustment had to go in and manually adjust the

582
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 1: quarterback rating we had on dj Auyangolalay. We were just

583
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 1: too low on him. He has proven that he is

584
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 1: an improved player. He has proven that he's a better

585
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 1: quarterback this year, and we got Clemson in the top

586
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 1: five again. There they are in familiar territory. Of the

587
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 1: four are unchanged, but there is a little adjustment in

588
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 1: the point spread. So or point totals Michigan, Georgia, Ohio State,

589
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 1: Utah four through one. Where is the gap right now?

590
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 1: What did I say? What did I say? Jesse oh Utah? Yeah,

591
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 1: Utah is not the number one team. So let me

592
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 1: restated Michigan, Georgia, Ohio State, Bama four through one. Right now,

593
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 1: the model would have BAMA minus one and a half

594
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 1: against Ohio State. It would have Bama minus four against Georgia.

595
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 1: It would have Bama minus fourteen against Michigan. So the

596
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: gap between three and four is ten points. The gap

597
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 1: between four and twenty five is nine points. So there

598
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 1: is a smaller gap between Georgia and Michigan than there

599
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 1: is between Michigan and FSU. I guess is our twenty

600
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:52,560
Speaker 1: fifteen still a tier? But you see it shrunk a

601
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 1: little bit from last week, So maybe slowly, but surely

602
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 1: the pack is reeling the top end. None of these

603
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 1: teams are invincible. Every one of them is vulnerable. I

604
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 1: think Ohio State has a week coming up where they

605
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 1: struggle a little bit. I'm not calling an upset. I'm

606
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 1: just saying this, this thing you saw Georgia dot at

607
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 1: Missouri this past week, it happened for a specific reason. Then,

608
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 1: that is Georgia lacks currently the explosive playmakers to stretch

609
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 1: those games. Ohio State could randomly have one of those games.

610
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 1: Bama lost a quarterback for over a half last week.

611
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 1: All kinds of crazy stuff can happen. So there's your

612
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 1: top ten there, Bama, Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, Clemson, Tennessee, Utah,

613
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, Penn State, and Texas. Something tells me something

614
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 1: there will change by this time next week. I just

615
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 1: gave a nickname to myself because no one else will

616
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 1: give it to me. Pack twelve Paate, I'm gonna mention

617
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,320
Speaker 1: it at least once more. It's because I just I

618
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 1: know that it rangles some of you. And you know

619
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 1: how rarely I use that word colin second cough time,

620
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 1: second cough three two one. My problem is I bought

621
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 1: some coffee drops, but I eat them like candy. I

622
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 1: chew them up. That is not what the That's not

623
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 1: what the package says to do. With them. Okay, here

624
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 1: we go. You wanted us on the West coast, Yogi Roth,

625
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 1: you got us on the West Coast. Utah versus Ucla. Saturday,

626
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 1: three thirty Eastern twelve thirty Local time, kickoff, Fox has

627
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 1: this game. They don't call me Pac twelve pay for nothing.

628
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 1: I will cover the Pac twelve like the Pacific Ocean

629
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 1: covers the beach. Horrific metaphor. But I'm gonna stick with

630
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 1: it cause we're live. Both of these teams are coming

631
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 1: off big wins. Utah housed Oregon State last weekend. It

632
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 1: was a Friday night game. But you saw what UCLA

633
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 1: did to Washington. What is Utah? This is what I

634
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 1: wanted to get to. We still got Utah at number seven.

635
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 1: I think in the JP pul what is Utah? I

636
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 1: think if a lot of you are honest with yourselves,

637
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 1: the buck risings of the world, the last time you

638
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 1: watched Utah be real was Week one. A lot of you,

639
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 1: not all of you, and a lot of you saw

640
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 1: them fall to Florida in Week one, didn't you, And

641
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 1: therefore a lot of you probably cast aspersions on the

642
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:10,239
Speaker 1: good name of Utah, and more importantly, you did what

643
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 1: MEMA told you not to do. You made a conclusion

644
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 1: about a team in week one, you didn't just observe,

645
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 1: and you may have. You may have short changed yourself

646
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 1: in short changed Utah in the process. We still got

647
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 1: Utah on the top ten because I think they're still

648
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 1: one of the best ten teams in the country. They

649
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 1: are one of three Power five teams that are top

650
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 1: twelve in scoring offense and scoring defense right now. Since

651
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 1: Week one, they are number two in FBS in point

652
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 1: differential they have they have just cruised merrily along. They

653
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 1: lost a competitive game on the road in Week one.

654
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 1: It's happened before. They are still very much a contender

655
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 1: for all the preseason goals. Last four matchups in this series,

656
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 1: this is this is a jarring statistic. The last four

657
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:57,520
Speaker 1: times that Utah played UCLA, they have won by a

658
00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 1: combined one eight two to fifty four. They've dropped at

659
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 1: least forty in every one of those games. So the

660
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 1: big question in this matchup is is this a different

661
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:10,320
Speaker 1: UCLA team? How different? They don't just need to be different,

662
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 1: they need to be substantially different. UCLA's path here, They've

663
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 1: got to break the pass defense statistic. They got to

664
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 1: make sure that after the dust settles out there in

665
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 1: Pasadena Saturday, that people are looking at saying, you know,

666
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 1: Utah had some impressive numbers in the past d category,

667
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 1: but it turns out they just hadn't played a team

668
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 1: like UCLA. Yeah, Utah's number one in the PAC twelve

669
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:37,319
Speaker 1: and pasad Have they been tested? Is fair to ask

670
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,239
Speaker 1: that question. Hey, there can be two truths. You can

671
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 1: be totally legitimate and have not been tested, and once

672
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,399
Speaker 1: you get tested, you'll prove your legitimacy. Or there could

673
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 1: be another truth, and that is your statistics are kind

674
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,840
Speaker 1: of fools gold because you hadn't been tested. What is Utah?

675
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 1: I happen to believe in them, But what is Utah?

676
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 1: Because the plays could be there? For all we know,

677
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 1: the plays could be there during Tom Robinson playing the

678
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,880
Speaker 1: best ball of his career his last eight games the

679
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 1: quarterback there for UCLA. He is a seventy three percent

680
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 1: completion guy. He is an eighteen to four touchdown interception

681
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 1: ratio guy. He got six rushing touchdowns for good measure

682
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 1: over that spam. And it's not just him. We talked

683
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 1: in the preseason about how this was Chip Kelly's shot

684
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 1: because a lot of programs were in transition out there,

685
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 1: and also he had a very very veteran sort of

686
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:28,799
Speaker 1: stable in the backfield. Quarterback running back Zach Charbonnay leads

687
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 1: the Pac twelve in all purpose yards right now running back,

688
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 1: So there are plays to be made here. Potentially that

689
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 1: is UCLA's path to win in this game as a

690
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:40,840
Speaker 1: short underdog at home. Is the spark starting to happen

691
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 1: for that program? Kind of goes back to what we

692
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 1: were talking about in the preseason, if it was gonna happen.

693
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:48,440
Speaker 1: It was my opinion that this is the year for

694
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 1: it to happen for chip Kelly. Well, it could have

695
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:54,359
Speaker 1: already started to happen, and we kind of didn't know it.

696
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 1: Now that we start to get a little length of

697
00:35:56,560 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 1: bone on the last few games. Their first forty games

698
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,919
Speaker 1: at UCLA under chip Kelly, they scored twenty eight point

699
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 1: eight points per game. Their last eight they've hit the

700
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 1: forty four points per game mark a little over that actually,

701
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:14,840
Speaker 1: So eight games still kind of a small sample size,

702
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,719
Speaker 1: but not really, that's two thirds of a season. Are

703
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:19,719
Speaker 1: we starting to see it? Are we starting to see

704
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 1: a scale a little bit? Well, this is one of

705
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:24,279
Speaker 1: the bigger games they played in quite a while, and

706
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:26,399
Speaker 1: it's one of you. It's one of Utah's biggest games.

707
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 1: They're in total back against the wall mode already because

708
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 1: Utah doesn't just fancy themselves as a PAC twelve championship contender.

709
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 1: Make no mistake, Utah still believes themselves to be a

710
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:41,440
Speaker 1: college football playoff contender. Well, obviously there's no margin for

711
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 1: error by way of them losing in Week one. Let's

712
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:44,839
Speaker 1: take a look at what the model thinks. Let's take

713
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:47,800
Speaker 1: a look at what Vegas thinks. Or a reminder, Utah

714
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 1: is a four and a half point favorite on the

715
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:52,240
Speaker 1: road in the Rose Bowl. I don't know what factor

716
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 1: crowd will be here. I look, regardless of whether you

717
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 1: have five people or five million people there, you got

718
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 1: to outplay them. Utah very rarely hands you a game.

719
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:04,319
Speaker 1: You got to out play him. The model is a

720
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 1: little shorter on this number. It's an interesting it's an

721
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,359
Speaker 1: interesting parallel here. The number in Vegas Caesars Line right

722
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:12,640
Speaker 1: now is Utah minus four and a half. The model

723
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 1: has Utah minus two. Jesse said something earlier today, and

724
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 1: I think I agree with it. For all the talk

725
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 1: about DTR all week. I actually think this may be

726
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:26,799
Speaker 1: a game. Cam Rising has one of the best statistical

727
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:30,359
Speaker 1: performances of his season. Now. Jesse likes him because he's

728
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 1: his twin. I like him because I think he plays

729
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 1: pretty good football. And it's really time. It's really time

730
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:39,279
Speaker 1: for him and that team in general to atone for

731
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:40,920
Speaker 1: what they weren't able to do on the road in

732
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 1: Week one. I think this is the spot they do it.

733
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Utah to win. They're just more desperate

734
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:48,680
Speaker 1: a team right now, and I'm also going to take

735
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:50,960
Speaker 1: him to cover. I want to stress I don't have

736
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:54,480
Speaker 1: a strong feeling about the spread in that game, but

737
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 1: I am gonna lean Utah to win the game. We're

738
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 1: gonna be at the second one. I mean the game

739
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 1: I'm about to talk about. We're gonna be here, and

740
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:05,560
Speaker 1: I want to stress one more time for everyone who

741
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 1: was asking why why we are contractually obligated to be

742
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 1: at this game. Okay, so it wasn't like we circled

743
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:16,799
Speaker 1: it and we see Bama's favor by twenty four and

744
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:19,919
Speaker 1: said gotta be at that one. We're gonna be there though,

745
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:23,520
Speaker 1: Texas A and m versus Bama. It's a Saturday primetime

746
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:28,280
Speaker 1: game eight Eastern on CBS. The vibe I've gotten from

747
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 1: sort of gauging the temperature in Tuscaloosa is very clear.

748
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 1: Twenty twenty LSU that game was a blood bath. It

749
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 1: was stemmed from the twenty nineteen game where LSU beat Bama.

750
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 1: There was a lot of talking afterwards, and it was

751
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:47,799
Speaker 1: never forgotten. And even though Bama I think was favored

752
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:50,759
Speaker 1: by thirty by the time the game kicked off, no

753
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 1: one cared. Never I've rarely seen that team more razor sharp,

754
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 1: focused and motivated to just embarrass someone. They want to

755
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 1: embarrass A and M. That doesn't matter. They want to

756
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 1: embarrass everyone they play. I'm just saying, if you look

757
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 1: at that point spread and you think, ah, I don't

758
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:10,799
Speaker 1: really think they're into it. That was last year. This

759
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 1: kind of situation presented itself last year and they got caught.

760
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 1: I don't think they get caught in that same trap twice.

761
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 1: So that doesn't mean an upset couldn't happen, but boy,

762
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 1: it's gonna have to be earned. The biggest talking point

763
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:24,040
Speaker 1: a couple of them around Texas A and M this

764
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 1: week Connor Wegman, I happen to think this is ludicrous,

765
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:31,839
Speaker 1: but some in the A and M community think that

766
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 1: this would be a good time for Jimbo Fisher to

767
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 1: play the true freshman quarterback again. I can't stress to

768
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 1: you enough how ludicrous I think that concept is. If

769
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,720
Speaker 1: he's ready now, he was ready last week. It's my point,

770
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 1: So this is not the game I would debut him.

771
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 1: It's not being scared, it's being smart. The second talking

772
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 1: point is twenty twenty three. A lot of people have

773
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 1: already resigned themselves to the fact that this season's kind

774
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:57,800
Speaker 1: of lost. Are we're gonna make the offensive adjustments necessary

775
00:39:57,840 --> 00:39:59,839
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three. I'm not interested in talking about

776
00:39:59,840 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 1: that right now, because you got a game this Saturday,

777
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:05,279
Speaker 1: and then you're gonna have several more. Obama is undefeated

778
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 1: at home in October under Nick Saban, a stat I

779
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 1: did not realize, but it makes sense. So is there

780
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:16,400
Speaker 1: a path to an upset here? Technically? The answer is yes, technically,

781
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna say this very simply, but it's a

782
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:23,240
Speaker 1: lot more difficult to execute if you could just limit

783
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:26,319
Speaker 1: explosive plays. Boy, you got a shot common sense. I

784
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 1: know Bama leads the country. They're number one in fbs

785
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:32,239
Speaker 1: in plays of twenty plus yards. I got thirty five

786
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:35,280
Speaker 1: of them already this year. When you watched them against Texas,

787
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 1: it's very easy to say things like, well, if we

788
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 1: took away that Jason McClellan touchdown run, that'd be a

789
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:42,920
Speaker 1: different game. Boy last week, if you took away that

790
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 1: Jalen Milroe run, if you took away a couple of

791
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:47,240
Speaker 1: Jamier Gibbs runs. Well, the point is you can't because

792
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 1: that's part of them offensively. But in any one game scenario,

793
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:55,000
Speaker 1: if you could limit them, it makes a ton of

794
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:58,919
Speaker 1: difference on the scoreboard. Can Texas A and M do that, Well,

795
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:01,280
Speaker 1: that's their path if they want to pull an upset.

796
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:05,120
Speaker 1: But here's the problem. Even if they can, here are

797
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 1: five very very challenging words, but necessary words. You still

798
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:13,399
Speaker 1: have to score. It's basically been a staple of every

799
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 1: A and M preview video we've done so far this year.

800
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 1: Even if you check box one and two and three

801
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:20,840
Speaker 1: and four defense special teams, you still have to score.

802
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:23,319
Speaker 1: And I don't think they can. I don't really care

803
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 1: who you throw out there at quarterback. I happen to

804
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 1: think Max Johnson would give them a better shot in

805
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:29,440
Speaker 1: this game. I don't know if he's going to be

806
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 1: healthy enough to play. I don't think Hayines King's good

807
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 1: matchup at all here, and I think they're going to

808
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:38,319
Speaker 1: struggle to score mightily. Having said that, this is not

809
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:40,839
Speaker 1: a team, this is not a Texas A and M team,

810
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:45,320
Speaker 1: athletically that is going too easily wilt. They will play

811
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:47,399
Speaker 1: the game of the year. It may not be the

812
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:50,799
Speaker 1: outcome of the year. They will play at as high

813
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 1: level as you've seen them play all year. It will

814
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:55,680
Speaker 1: be a one game season type vibe from them. You

815
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 1: will not be able to tell what their record is

816
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 1: by the intensity with which they play. All those things

817
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:03,959
Speaker 1: I agree with. I believe if you think Bama's about

818
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 1: to buzz saw them in the first quarter, I'm not

819
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 1: sure that's the way this goes. But I think Bama's

820
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:11,400
Speaker 1: gonna end up winning the game convincingly. I just don't

821
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 1: necessarily know that it's like a Bama versus G five

822
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:20,320
Speaker 1: or MAC level competition type outcome. If it's Jalen Millroe

823
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 1: at quarterback, if it's not Bryce Young and Boy, there's

824
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:26,040
Speaker 1: not a lot of information to be had. Nick Saban's

825
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 1: done a really good job on bottling all that up

826
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:30,279
Speaker 1: this week, at least nothing that we can say. If

827
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 1: it is Jalen Milroe and I've seen A and M

828
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 1: trying to defend the run this year, BAMA could paper

829
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:40,760
Speaker 1: cut them to death. BAMA could theoretically throw the ball

830
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 1: ten to fifteen times and run the ball over fifty

831
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 1: times Saturday if they wanted to, and it would be

832
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:47,920
Speaker 1: a healthy game plan for a win. I don't know

833
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 1: if it's twenty four point win, but it's a healthy

834
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 1: game plan for a win. Yards per carry A and

835
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 1: M ninety seventh in the country defensively in yards per

836
00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:58,879
Speaker 1: carry against. I don't think I need to tell you

837
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 1: how much better that has to be Saturday. Let's take

838
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 1: a look at what the model thinks. Let's take a

839
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:05,839
Speaker 1: look at what we think. Now. I'm going to show

840
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:08,839
Speaker 1: you a line. This is with Bryce Young. So and

841
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 1: I quite frankly, I think the Vegas number is planning

842
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 1: on Bryce Young playing. We don't know if he's going

843
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 1: to play. So the Caesars line right now is BAMA

844
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:19,879
Speaker 1: minus twenty four. Game of the year BAMA minus twenty four.

845
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:22,920
Speaker 1: Our model has BAMA minus twenty five, so it agrees.

846
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:26,960
Speaker 1: Pending the status of Bryce Young. Here's what I'm gonna do.

847
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:29,239
Speaker 1: I am going to take Bama to win the game.

848
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:31,600
Speaker 1: I'll just go with the model because we don't have

849
00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 1: solid intel on the quarterback situation right now, and I

850
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 1: will take them to cover. That's not a strong lean

851
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 1: because that's a huge, fat number and so I'm not

852
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:44,239
Speaker 1: really attracted either way on the side there, but I

853
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 1: will take Mama to win. Shocking, I know, I will

854
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:48,799
Speaker 1: lean Bama at home. Okay. We had a question on

855
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 1: Twitter that I wanted to get to. I thought this

856
00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 1: was really interesting. It's about coaching changes. But it's well,

857
00:43:57,560 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 1: let's just let's just take a look at it. I

858
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 1: think we have it. Yeah, Connor asked one of my

859
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 1: thoughts on all the firings that are happening around the country. Well, Connor,

860
00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:08,919
Speaker 1: I'm not surprised by it. I think we saw it coming. Now.

861
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:11,239
Speaker 1: In one hand, you could say, boy, isn't it kind

862
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:14,040
Speaker 1: of ludicrous? You know, it's become very popular. And I'm

863
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:17,319
Speaker 1: not saying I disagree. It's become popular to say, if

864
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 1: you're firing a guy in September, shouldn't you have fired

865
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 1: him last year? Here's what that insinuates. It insinuates you

866
00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:27,800
Speaker 1: have indecisiveness or maybe someone in a decision making position

867
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:31,440
Speaker 1: that is ill equipped to make the decisions. Ding there

868
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:33,720
Speaker 1: you go. Okay, now you're starting to hit on something

869
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:37,759
Speaker 1: my thoughts. Connor I wrote down a few things here.

870
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:41,439
Speaker 1: The job of college football head coach has never been

871
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 1: more complex because there have never been this many layers.

872
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 1: Transfer portal didn't exist fifteen years ago, in il didn't exist.

873
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:50,879
Speaker 1: Ten years ago. You got all that to deal with.

874
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:54,799
Speaker 1: Now you've got mental health issues that were not taken

875
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 1: as serious as they are now. You're not an expert

876
00:44:57,200 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 1: in any of that stuff, but you're leading an organization

877
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:01,760
Speaker 1: that has to be top notch and how they handle

878
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 1: those sorts of things. The job of head coach has

879
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:07,480
Speaker 1: never been more difficult. In my opinion. The money has

880
00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 1: never been greater. They're getting compensated, so I'm not trying

881
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:12,520
Speaker 1: to make you feel sorry for him. The money's never

882
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:15,759
Speaker 1: been greater, the job's never been harder. That means the

883
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 1: expectation level amongst most fans has never been more warped,

884
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:22,279
Speaker 1: because the idea is if we pay him more, we

885
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:24,839
Speaker 1: magically just get to expect one hundred and forty percent

886
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 1: of what they're capable of. And here's the kicker, there

887
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:34,279
Speaker 1: have never been fewer football minded people in decision making positions.

888
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:38,640
Speaker 1: This is the great to me overlooked aspect of what

889
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:43,360
Speaker 1: has changed in college athletics football included over the past

890
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:47,759
Speaker 1: let's call it ten, fifteen, twenty years. This was not

891
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:51,600
Speaker 1: always the big money business that it is now. Running

892
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:55,360
Speaker 1: an athletic department was not always the big money enterprise

893
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:58,000
Speaker 1: that it is now. It was more cottage in nature.

894
00:45:58,040 --> 00:46:00,719
Speaker 1: Now it is just what I said in enterprise. Well.

895
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:03,720
Speaker 1: As a result, you used to just get a former

896
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:08,400
Speaker 1: coach to be your athletic director. That doesn't fly anymore.

897
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 1: Gone are the days of the Barry Alvarezes all over

898
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:14,080
Speaker 1: the country. No, you get someone who is an expert

899
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:17,719
Speaker 1: in marketing or who cut their teeth in fundraising, and

900
00:46:17,840 --> 00:46:20,959
Speaker 1: those are the folks that end up in the AD's chair.

901
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 1: I don't have a problem with that. A lot of

902
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:26,360
Speaker 1: them for great people, I know many of them. But

903
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 1: those are the ones making the hires. Here is the

904
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:32,879
Speaker 1: illusion that I used to be under until I got

905
00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:35,319
Speaker 1: to see under the hood and I realized how this

906
00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 1: actually works. I used to think that everyone who was

907
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:42,799
Speaker 1: making hiring decisions was a genius. I used to think

908
00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 1: that everyone who was making a decision on whether to

909
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:48,239
Speaker 1: hire this coach or that coach, I used to think

910
00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 1: they had forty seven computer screens in front of them,

911
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 1: and they had every bit of data available, and they

912
00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:57,399
Speaker 1: were making these sorts of high level decisions that if

913
00:46:57,440 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 1: I could see what went into them, would make my

914
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 1: head spind It is a clown show. Sometimes not all

915
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:07,239
Speaker 1: the time. Sometimes it is a clown show to see

916
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 1: how it actually operates. Sometimes you get the right guy,

917
00:47:10,280 --> 00:47:13,839
Speaker 1: sometimes you don't. But a lot of times you never

918
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:16,280
Speaker 1: had the right people in the room making the decision

919
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:19,279
Speaker 1: to begin with. So let's walk back now, Connor, and

920
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:21,800
Speaker 1: let's ask ourselves. Am I surprised with all these firings.

921
00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:26,760
Speaker 1: Job's never been harder, the money's never been bigger. Therefore,

922
00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 1: the leash has never been shorter, and you've never had

923
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 1: this many folks ill equipped to make the hiring decisions.

924
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:36,319
Speaker 1: What would we expect given the combination of those four

925
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 1: things all present in the room at the same time.

926
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 1: It's a disaster. And I heard Brandon Walker say something

927
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:45,359
Speaker 1: the other day, and it sucks. I gotta give him

928
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 1: credit because he's right. Buyouts don't matter. Buyouts really don't matter.

929
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 1: He's right about that. You see all these numbers and

930
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:55,359
Speaker 1: you think, oh, they'll never pay that, they'll never pay. Yeah,

931
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:57,919
Speaker 1: they will. That money's not real to them because it's

932
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 1: not their money. It's the money of some dude who

933
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 1: became a billionaire off of gas stations or became a

934
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 1: billionaire off of trucking company or or a lumber distributor.

935
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:11,800
Speaker 1: They that stuff is a rounding error to them, especially

936
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:12,920
Speaker 1: when you have two or three of them in the

937
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:14,960
Speaker 1: room at the same time, and they take immense pride

938
00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:18,239
Speaker 1: in that football program. These buyout numbers, they don't matter.

939
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 1: They're not real. Twenty million dollars to you and I

940
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 1: it's real. That's not real in that world. They'll pay

941
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:30,440
Speaker 1: whatever it takes and then some So I say all

942
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:33,520
Speaker 1: that to say it's going to continue. And I don't

943
00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:35,799
Speaker 1: think you're going to see a radical shift in the

944
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 1: kinds of decision makers we have in the room. If anything,

945
00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:41,680
Speaker 1: I think you're seeing the sports shift more away from

946
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 1: filling the athletic department with football minded people and filling

947
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 1: it more with business minded people. Again, nothing wrong with

948
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 1: having those folks in the room. They are not the

949
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:56,200
Speaker 1: ones best equipped to make football hires. So a lot

950
00:48:56,239 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 1: of times you're getting the wrong guy in there and

951
00:48:57,600 --> 00:48:59,759
Speaker 1: you don't know it yet, and you're paying them a

952
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:02,359
Speaker 1: ton of money, you're overpaying them, and you don't know it,

953
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:04,759
Speaker 1: and by the time you realize it, it's too late,

954
00:49:05,160 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 1: and then you have to make a decision and you

955
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:11,319
Speaker 1: get convinced because you're ill equipped to know otherwise, let's

956
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:13,719
Speaker 1: give one more year. Well, then they start off one

957
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:16,520
Speaker 1: and two and time to pull the lever when you

958
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:18,120
Speaker 1: could have had an eight month head start on it

959
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 1: if you made the decision in January. All that's stupid

960
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:24,440
Speaker 1: to watch happened, and it is. It's very stupid, but

961
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:27,080
Speaker 1: it's going to continue to happen. Connor, so nothing you

962
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:29,279
Speaker 1: and I can do about it. I'll just do a

963
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:31,840
Speaker 1: segment on it and get our little fifteen thousand views

964
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:34,280
Speaker 1: and that'll be how we handle it. Robin little Express.

965
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:37,200
Speaker 1: I'm gonna add one more game tonight. We are waiting

966
00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:39,880
Speaker 1: on an inordinate amount of line moves this week, so

967
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:42,920
Speaker 1: we're only three deep, right man. Normally we got like

968
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 1: seven or eight on the board. Don't worry, they're coming

969
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:47,280
Speaker 1: Louisville minus four and a half were already on Buffalo

970
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 1: plus two were already on. I am adding Arkansas State.

971
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:53,880
Speaker 1: Every one of you loves this James Madison story. It's great,

972
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:56,120
Speaker 1: it's wonderful, and I don't even care if they win

973
00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:58,680
Speaker 1: this week. But Arkansas State plus eleven and a half

974
00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:01,760
Speaker 1: at home is what we're gonna take. So nice seven

975
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:05,520
Speaker 1: point when fine with it, But we're riding with Butch Jones.

976
00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:06,880
Speaker 1: I don't get to say that a whole lot, so

977
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:09,320
Speaker 1: I'm saying it tonight. If you missed the beginning of

978
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 1: the show, we have signed a new multi year, incredible,

979
00:50:14,280 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 1: mind blowing deal with CBS, so the show is not

980
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:20,680
Speaker 1: going anywhere, And basically why it took so long, it's

981
00:50:20,680 --> 00:50:22,319
Speaker 1: because I wanted to make sure we got yeses on

982
00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:24,719
Speaker 1: everything we needed to keep the show exactly how you

983
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:27,320
Speaker 1: want it. And we're gonna keep it exactly how you

984
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 1: want it so your biggest fears are alleviated. You won't

985
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:32,479
Speaker 1: have to pay a dime for this show. We're gonna

986
00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:34,080
Speaker 1: keep it free and if anything, we're just gonna add

987
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:36,319
Speaker 1: a few more themes that you've asked for that to

988
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:38,359
Speaker 1: this point we haven't been able to give you that

989
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:40,919
Speaker 1: We will now be able to give you for a producer, Jess,

990
00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:43,040
Speaker 1: for a director, Tom, I'm Josh, babe. We'll be back

991
00:50:43,200 --> 00:50:46,920
Speaker 1: same time Thursday night, but live from Tuscaloosa. Stay tuned

992
00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:56,040
Speaker 1: on the location until then. Take care and God bless