WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2024 US Open Betting Preview 0:00:03.520 --> 0:00:08.680 Check it down man, Thursday morning, August twenty second. It 0:00:08.800 --> 0:00:13.520 is the Beating the Book podcast. US Open Tennis preview 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:19.120 betting preview skill Alexander pumped because the draw just happened. 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:22.040 I have not even seen it, but my two guests have. 0:00:22.680 --> 0:00:26.000 Drew Dinsick of course at Whale Underscore Capper, co host 0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:27.880 of not only the Deep Dive podcast, which he does 0:00:27.920 --> 0:00:31.160 with Andy moletor That's the Deep Dive Podcast with Andy Montor, 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:34.760 but also NBC Sports bet the edge was happening, Drew, 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:36.680 thank you for doing this well yet again. 0:00:36.520 --> 0:00:39.839 My friend it is. It is a great tradition. I 0:00:39.880 --> 0:00:42.159 appreciate being invited back. And there's a lot going on 0:00:42.159 --> 0:00:43.720 in the world of tennis right now. And if you're 0:00:43.760 --> 0:00:46.800 asking yourself, how can you care about tennis when the 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:49.640 season's winding down and football is about to start, well, 0:00:50.040 --> 0:00:52.920 guess what. Preseason's over. We have like eighteen days to 0:00:52.920 --> 0:00:54.760 sit around and tool of our thumbs before we actually 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:56.720 have real NFL games that matter. 0:00:56.840 --> 0:00:58.120 So there is no if you. 0:00:58.080 --> 0:01:02.600 Don't already have a a tennis hard oh you know, 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:05.080 placed in your heart. Now is a perfect time to 0:01:05.080 --> 0:01:08.000 get one, because this US Open is going to be amazing, 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:09.760 and yes it is. 0:01:10.520 --> 0:01:11.080 Again, like. 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:15.640 A lot of fans of this podcast have reached out, 0:01:15.720 --> 0:01:17.560 you're going to be at the Open this year, I'm not. 0:01:17.800 --> 0:01:20.000 I'm very, very sad about it. I went last year. 0:01:20.000 --> 0:01:22.440 It was an incredible experience. I would recommend anyone who 0:01:22.520 --> 0:01:25.120 cares about tennis to get there at some point just 0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:29.119 for the experience. And yeah, I'm excited for this year's 0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:31.560 Open because it's going to be full of drama. 0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:34.200 Full of drama. And you have said it brilliantly in 0:01:34.200 --> 0:01:38.520 the past, which is Tennis has the decency to schedule 0:01:39.000 --> 0:01:43.880 the Slams perfectly around the NFL season, right like NFL 0:01:43.920 --> 0:01:47.080 playoffs are happening. Okay, we'll play the Australian Open. NFL 0:01:47.120 --> 0:01:50.160 seasons about to start. Okay, let's let's end the US 0:01:50.200 --> 0:01:52.840 Open on the first Sunday. So it's a beautiful thing. 0:01:53.600 --> 0:01:55.440 I got to tell my US Open story real briefly 0:01:55.480 --> 0:01:57.200 if I happened before. But first I want to introduce 0:01:57.240 --> 0:02:00.240 our other guests. Zach Cohen, making his second peer's on 0:02:00.280 --> 0:02:02.920 the podcast. He was here for Wimbledon. Wimbledon was pre draw, 0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:04.920 so it was kind of kind of tough for us. 0:02:04.960 --> 0:02:06.840 And it's grass to begin with. But here we are 0:02:06.840 --> 0:02:09.799 a US Open. The draw has happened. Zach Cohen at 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:12.760 betting on X on Twitter, and he is the glue 0:02:12.760 --> 0:02:16.320 that holds VS in together. How you doing, Zach doing well? 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:19.000 Echo the set of it of the scheduling being perfect. 0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:20.960 I just feel like, you know that the hardcourt season 0:02:21.680 --> 0:02:23.720 for tennis is just at the perfect time where you 0:02:23.720 --> 0:02:25.960 know we're slow for football. You just got to kind 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:28.239 of dive in two hours and hours of tennis. And 0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:30.600 it was a really exciting build up to the US Open. 0:02:30.720 --> 0:02:33.000 It's almost like a build up to WrestleMania if you're 0:02:33.040 --> 0:02:35.400 a wrestling fan out there. And we had we had 0:02:35.400 --> 0:02:37.600 the Yanick Sinner drama too to cap it all off. 0:02:37.639 --> 0:02:40.000 So yeah, just a really fun time to be in 0:02:40.040 --> 0:02:40.480 on tennis. 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:42.600 Yeah, let me tell you a US Open story real quick, 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:44.960 which may not be interesting to anybody, but I just this, 0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:47.000 this tripped me out when it happened. I have been 0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:49.440 to the US Open one day in my life. It 0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:51.280 is a bucket list item. I've always wanted to go 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:53.680 to the US Open, especially at night in the night session, 0:02:53.680 --> 0:02:56.320 because it gets raucous there. So I can't remember what 0:02:56.520 --> 0:02:59.840 year this was, but it was about eight nine years 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:05.440 go thereabouts. I saw Sloan Stevens play Anna Ivanovitch for instance. 0:03:05.520 --> 0:03:07.320 That gives you an idea about what years we're talking 0:03:07.320 --> 0:03:10.600 about young Sloane Stevens. And then we went to another 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:15.919 court and we watched Gial Simone play Marty Fish, which 0:03:16.120 --> 0:03:18.040 which which people are going to be like, what the 0:03:18.040 --> 0:03:20.000 hell Jill Simone versus Marty Fish and I had the 0:03:20.000 --> 0:03:21.639 same reaction. It went late in the night. It was 0:03:21.639 --> 0:03:25.320 a great match. Whatever. But then last year have you 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:28.920 seen this Marty Fish documentary? Have you guys seen this 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:29.440 at all? 0:03:29.840 --> 0:03:30.000 Uh? 0:03:30.639 --> 0:03:32.680 This is the one where he basically is talking about 0:03:32.720 --> 0:03:35.480 his struggles of yes, he fell into a tough time 0:03:35.520 --> 0:03:37.040 and then he worked his way out. He was Andy 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:39.480 Rocks like basically hitting partner was like, wait a minute, 0:03:39.480 --> 0:03:41.320 I'm good enough to play exactly. 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:43.520 That is a good watch. 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:48.080 So that's the documentary. It's basically about Marty Fish losing 0:03:48.200 --> 0:03:53.040 his like mental health crisis on the tennis court. That 0:03:53.320 --> 0:03:55.920 was the night I was there. That was the match. 0:03:56.480 --> 0:03:59.240 So it's like he's like, this is the match and 0:03:59.360 --> 0:04:02.040 I saw currently the match that I was there present 0:04:02.080 --> 0:04:05.480 for watching. I had no idea that marty Fish inside 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:09.560 his cranium was having a mental breakdown, the likes of 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:14.720 which defined his entire career. I love that freaking out 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:16.560 yeah twenty eleven. 0:04:16.320 --> 0:04:19.640 Twenty eleven and the cooler coolest parts about that if 0:04:19.640 --> 0:04:21.600 you haven't already watched it is like him in the 0:04:21.600 --> 0:04:24.440 car all right, like you get all of the extra yes, 0:04:24.480 --> 0:04:26.640 Like he doesn't just like talk about what happened. They 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:30.760 have like footage of like like literally just like I 0:04:30.839 --> 0:04:34.200 can't do this, I can't play like that's that was crazy. 0:04:34.560 --> 0:04:35.480 I can't believe you're there. 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:38.760 I'm literally watching the documentary looking up in the stands 0:04:38.760 --> 0:04:41.080 to see if I could see myself out there. I 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:44.640 was sitting right about there anyway, Okay, said you brought 0:04:44.720 --> 0:04:47.000 up Yonic Center. Let's just start there. So Yanick Center. 0:04:47.040 --> 0:04:48.920 For those who missed it this week, this came out 0:04:48.920 --> 0:04:50.400 of the blue. Drew was actually on air with me 0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:52.960 on a numbers game Tuesday morning, as he always is, 0:04:53.000 --> 0:04:55.040 and this happened apparently because he told me about it 0:04:55.160 --> 0:04:59.039 right before he came on, which is, oh, look at this. Uh. 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:07.640 Yanick Onyx Center apparently tested positive for a very small 0:05:07.640 --> 0:05:13.400 amount of a banned substance, but it was quickly ruled 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:17.800 that it was inadvertent applied by a masseuse, and so 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:21.359 he was not suspended. He was fined and docked the 0:05:21.360 --> 0:05:24.960 points from from Indian Wells that he had garnered. Otherwise, 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:26.760 other than that, though there was no suspension, it was 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:28.640 swept under the carpet, and here we are all these 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:31.760 months later. It's like the ATP was quick to be like, 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:35.800 there's no problem. We really we really appreciate the quick 0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:37.680 ruling on that. It was a wonderful thing and it 0:05:37.720 --> 0:05:40.279 was found to have no no, no fault of his 0:05:41.240 --> 0:05:45.120 Let's just start there a just for your personally, like 0:05:45.240 --> 0:05:48.520 do you think it's bullshit? And then two, do you 0:05:48.839 --> 0:05:51.960 think after all this time, because Yanick Center has been 0:05:52.000 --> 0:05:55.479 playing with this quote unquote hanging over his head, but 0:05:55.560 --> 0:05:58.000 he knew that the public didn't know about it, do 0:05:58.040 --> 0:06:00.520 you think this will have any effect on his game 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:02.159 in the US Open. 0:06:02.640 --> 0:06:03.520 That's a fair question. 0:06:04.120 --> 0:06:06.039 I'll jump in first, and I'm going to do my 0:06:06.080 --> 0:06:07.160 best not to get you sued. 0:06:07.200 --> 0:06:07.440 Gil. 0:06:07.600 --> 0:06:11.760 Okay, if you think that your favorite tennis player, man 0:06:11.880 --> 0:06:16.320 or woman in history is not using some sort of 0:06:16.360 --> 0:06:21.640 performance enhancement to be able to withstand the physical just 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:25.120 absolute war on the body that the atp or air 0:06:25.240 --> 0:06:28.440 w t A tour is then you're living under a rock. 0:06:31.480 --> 0:06:35.159 And so like hearing that, you know, hearing that, oh, 0:06:35.320 --> 0:06:37.279 somebody at the top of the sport got popped, like 0:06:37.880 --> 0:06:41.200 it should never really surprise you unless you are you 0:06:41.200 --> 0:06:42.760 know again like blissfully ignorant. 0:06:42.800 --> 0:06:45.280 But that's fine. And I and. 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:48.839 To me at least, the you know, the more powerful 0:06:48.880 --> 0:06:51.200 you are, the more money you have, you have a 0:06:51.200 --> 0:06:54.200 team of chemists who are keeping you know, towing the 0:06:54.240 --> 0:06:57.120 line of you know, whatever it is, you know, whatever 0:06:57.240 --> 0:06:57.760 is allowed. 0:06:57.839 --> 0:07:00.520 I mean like this isn't I'm not this is you 0:07:00.560 --> 0:07:03.520 know this, this is how it works at the highest level. 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:06.839 And you know, there's so much money at stake and 0:07:06.880 --> 0:07:10.320 there's you know there there is so much you know, 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:12.720 legacy at stake that yeah, you toe the line. 0:07:12.800 --> 0:07:14.240 You are very careful generally. 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:17.720 And the fact that this weird kind of random tiny 0:07:17.720 --> 0:07:21.280 amount slipped through the cracks through some bizarre like they 0:07:21.320 --> 0:07:24.160 like the explanation was so bizarre, it's almost you have 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:28.720 to believe it. But and but that said, like it 0:07:28.720 --> 0:07:33.160 it's kind of strangely giving tennis cover for what is 0:07:33.200 --> 0:07:36.440 probably a bigger issue that ought to be explored, which 0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:41.000 is like the therapeutic use you use exemptions for, like 0:07:41.080 --> 0:07:44.800 the asthma medications that they're taking, the testosterone creams that 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:47.400 they use that don't flag and like, you know, so 0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:53.239 I think ultimately like it was probably harmless. The only 0:07:53.360 --> 0:07:56.440 kind of uh maybe it wasn't harmless in the back 0:07:56.480 --> 0:07:58.960 of my head was that, oh, I don't know, YadA 0:07:59.000 --> 0:08:05.760 Center missed the Olympics because of tonselitis what oh and 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:07.840 and this was going on at the same time, like 0:08:07.960 --> 0:08:12.080 huh yeah, Olympic Olympic testing program a little different. 0:08:12.440 --> 0:08:14.920 Uh. And you know it may have it may have been. 0:08:15.200 --> 0:08:19.320 You know, somewhat team decision oriented that he you know 0:08:19.480 --> 0:08:21.680 that he uh uh you know, stay out of that. 0:08:21.840 --> 0:08:25.240 But but again, like you know, I want the best 0:08:25.280 --> 0:08:27.840 tennis players healthy, playing the best tennis the most of 0:08:27.880 --> 0:08:29.880 the year, so I don't really care what they're doing 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:32.520 to get themselves onto the court, uh and being in 0:08:32.559 --> 0:08:35.240 top shape. And again, like if you think that some 0:08:35.280 --> 0:08:37.560 of the all time greats, the guys we would consider 0:08:37.679 --> 0:08:40.080 the greatest guys in gals that we would consider the 0:08:40.080 --> 0:08:42.679 greatest in sport, haven't you know towed the line? 0:08:42.920 --> 0:08:45.960 Uh? Then I got I got, I got a lovely 0:08:45.960 --> 0:08:47.800 piece of land in California City to sell you. 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:50.080 I don't think we're gonna get suit for that at all. Drew, 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:51.600 thank you for couching it the way that the couch 0:08:51.800 --> 0:08:54.080 By the way, I agree with everything you've said, but 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:57.079 it still comes down to the question of there there 0:08:57.160 --> 0:09:01.040 is a mental aspect to this, right because I even 0:09:01.120 --> 0:09:04.160 with all that said, sure does yonick center then now 0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:06.640 that it's out there, is he the type of guy? 0:09:06.679 --> 0:09:09.280 There's no way to know for sure, but is do 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:11.920 you have to as a handicapper just kind of keep 0:09:11.920 --> 0:09:13.560 it in the back of your mind if you see 0:09:13.640 --> 0:09:15.840 him sort of not play well. Let's say, I'm just 0:09:15.880 --> 0:09:18.080 gonna go hypothetical. If he's not playing well in the 0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:20.960 first couple of rounds, will it creep into your head? Oh, 0:09:21.000 --> 0:09:24.040 he's probably just like not mentally all there right now 0:09:24.080 --> 0:09:24.680 because of this. 0:09:26.080 --> 0:09:28.840 Or so I gotta say, like the worst part about 0:09:28.880 --> 0:09:30.440 it is like because I don't want to believe that 0:09:30.480 --> 0:09:32.240 he is using it. I mean, I agree, like these 0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:35.440 guys are probably all using something, but you know, the 0:09:35.480 --> 0:09:38.959 timing of it. His body started to break down afterwards, 0:09:38.960 --> 0:09:40.800 and you know, after he had gotten you know, three 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:44.280 or four months being completely healthy, and he's a guy 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:46.960 that has historically battled injuries throughout his career. Now all 0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:49.480 of a sudden, you know, he fails these two tests. 0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:52.040 Now he's you know, starting to have the hip flare 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:54.480 up again. His stamina is an issue on the court, 0:09:54.559 --> 0:09:56.120 so you know, that kind of is an argument for 0:09:56.200 --> 0:09:58.680 that he was using something, and you know, you know 0:09:58.800 --> 0:10:00.520 that's kind of what I'm concerned about going into the 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:02.679 US Open is kind of his body, you know, handle 0:10:02.960 --> 0:10:06.320 best of five tennis again, especially in human conditions. We 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:08.800 just saw a tournament that he won in Cincinnati, but 0:10:08.840 --> 0:10:11.520 you know, there were matches that he looked really banged up. 0:10:11.679 --> 0:10:13.040 There were people that didn't think he was going to 0:10:13.040 --> 0:10:15.440 play the final of that tournament. He was able to 0:10:15.480 --> 0:10:17.640 make it his way through it, but yeah, I'm definitely 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:20.520 nervous about the physical aspect of it. Also strikes me 0:10:20.559 --> 0:10:23.200 as a type of kid that like will feel guilty 0:10:23.240 --> 0:10:24.040 about what happened. 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:27.240 That's what That's what I'm getting at. 0:10:27.360 --> 0:10:30.200 Yeah, not not the type of guy that, like Djokovic, 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:32.000 is going to embrace the villain status. 0:10:32.280 --> 0:10:34.640 That's that's what I mean, Right, Djokovic wouldn't care I 0:10:34.640 --> 0:10:37.720 wouldn't even ask the question, was Djokovic but center, I 0:10:37.720 --> 0:10:39.480 don't know, I don't know. It's just in the back 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:40.240 of my mind. 0:10:40.240 --> 0:10:44.440 Right, Yeah, it's it's it's honestly, the mental part of 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:46.319 it is enough for me to be a little cool 0:10:46.760 --> 0:10:49.440 independent of what, you know, whatever advantage I see on 0:10:49.520 --> 0:10:54.280 price for him, and you know it, Uh yeah, I 0:10:54.679 --> 0:10:56.480 you know, he's he ended up with you know, we 0:10:56.520 --> 0:10:57.520 can pivot right to the draw. 0:10:57.600 --> 0:10:59.480 He ended up with the draw where you know he's 0:10:59.520 --> 0:11:00.760 going to have to again. 0:11:00.800 --> 0:11:05.320 You brought up the Anna Ivanovich Slan Stevens match, like, yeah, 0:11:05.440 --> 0:11:07.680 I imagine that was tilted. I imagine the crowd was 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:11.200 pretty pro Sloan Stevens, a pretty anti Anavanovich. 0:11:11.320 --> 0:11:14.560 Yeah, like you look at Sinner's draw. He's gonna He's 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:14.840 got a. 0:11:14.840 --> 0:11:17.280 Couple of matches where he is not going to be 0:11:17.360 --> 0:11:19.560 the crowd favorite. You add a little bit of you know, 0:11:19.720 --> 0:11:22.360 a little bit of motivation for uh, you know, the 0:11:22.400 --> 0:11:24.280 New Yorkers to kind of get up his ass, and 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:26.120 all of a sudden, like yeah, maybe he is not 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:30.280 like especially performing well mentally and and and isn't enjoying 0:11:30.320 --> 0:11:32.640 this experience and is ready to go home. Like that 0:11:32.640 --> 0:11:37.320 wouldn't shock me. But that said, you know, the quality 0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:38.720 of tennis you're seeing from him right. 0:11:38.600 --> 0:11:41.440 Now is pretty unreal. So uh, he's a he's a 0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:42.560 tough bet against. 0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:43.839 All right, So talk to me about the draw. Both 0:11:43.840 --> 0:11:45.040 of you have seen it. I have not. I was 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:47.360 doing a show. So let's break it. Let's break down 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:49.319 the men's sort of quarter by quarter if you could, 0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:50.920 the headlines drew as you see it. 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:56.119 Sure, so, uh the sinner's quarters is he Center. 0:11:55.920 --> 0:11:59.240 Is your first your first seed, So he's in Q one, 0:11:59.320 --> 0:12:03.600 top of the draw, and his draw is is bad. 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:06.480 It's tough in particular. 0:12:06.520 --> 0:12:09.400 I look at quarterfinals, semi finals, and he's you know, 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:11.480 if he gets to that point in the tournament, he 0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:14.480 is drawn Daniel Medvedev in the quarterfinal, who plays his 0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:18.120 best tennis at this particular venue, and he is drawing 0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:21.600 Carlos al Kraz in the semi finals, who's of course 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:24.960 a poor previous champion here and has clearly shaken some 0:12:25.000 --> 0:12:27.319 of the injury concerns that existed for him in the fall, 0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:30.679 I mean in spring, and maybe a little bit even 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:32.719 a little bit fresher than Center at this point, and 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:35.080 has also embraced the best of five tennis to the 0:12:35.120 --> 0:12:38.240 degree that I think should scare everyone on tour. So 0:12:38.520 --> 0:12:42.520 you know, Centner's quarterfinal matchup, semifinal matchup are gnarly, and 0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:44.960 then at that point you're presumably playing Djokovic in the 0:12:44.960 --> 0:12:48.960 final because you have an imbalanced draw between top and bottom. 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:52.199 You know, Djokovic and saverev are on the bottom center 0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:54.920 and al Kraz are on the top, And I think 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:56.959 two of those three are not you know, two of 0:12:57.000 --> 0:12:59.000 the three of those four not like the others in 0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:02.960 terms of you know, championship equity here, and they happen 0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:05.800 to be on the top. So Sinner, if you like 0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:09.280 him at this particular venue and you think he's winning 0:13:09.320 --> 0:13:12.360 his second second hard court slamb of the season, I 0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:14.480 would almost say your best bet is to just bet 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:16.000 and match by match, because he's going to be a 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:18.400 dog against Outcrass, he could be a dog against Djokovic, 0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:21.199 and he's going to be a short favorite against Medvedev, 0:13:21.240 --> 0:13:25.200 I would think, So you can probably exercise a little 0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:28.920 bit better value betting center match by match if you like. 0:13:29.960 --> 0:13:34.920 And you know, I think it's pretty clear that Q 0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:40.200 two is wide open for al Kraz, and I think 0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:42.160 it's pretty clear that the bottom half is wide open 0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:42.800 for Djokovic. 0:13:43.040 --> 0:13:45.000 Djokovic is Q four's verevus Q three. 0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:45.960 Yeah. 0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:47.920 Wow. 0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:51.400 So Djokovic going, of course for his uh for his 0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:55.880 twenty fifth Grand Slam Singles title. After he gets the 0:13:55.920 --> 0:13:59.800 goal at the Olympics, that was like the big crowning 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:03.480 sort of victory that he had not had through his 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:06.559 other otherwise illustrious career. He gets that in the it 0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:10.360 was just the most awesome, awesome final against Carlos Alkarez. 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:16.480 But to get a twenty fifth, that perfect number twenty five, 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:20.640 that would also get him above Margaret Court, just for 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:24.640 like historical context, since that would almost be, like you 0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:27.120 talk about it, if there's anything else left. The Olympics 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:29.680 was the big thing left, but that would be the 0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:32.400 other thing. And so Djokovic gets the favorable draw. Is 0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:33.360 that generally how you see it? 0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:36.880 Zach as well, I think that Djokovic early on has 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:39.160 some tests. I do think that his quarter, you know, 0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:41.680 later on, you know, third, fourth rounds, is definitely easier 0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:43.920 than the other guys. But you know, he's gonna potentially 0:14:43.960 --> 0:14:47.760 get like John Leonard strufe Alexi Popper in the first 0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:49.960 two matches and then a third round match I believe 0:14:49.960 --> 0:14:53.280 against either Ben Shelton or Francis Tiafo. So you know, 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:55.400 if he doesn't come into this tournament ready to go, 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:57.560 like he is going to get tested pretty much, you know, 0:14:57.800 --> 0:14:59.760 right out the gates, just playing a bunch of big servers. 0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:02.360 But generally speaking, I do think he has the easiest 0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:05.320 draw of the other guys. So yeah, it's it's looking 0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:08.320 like twenty five is definitely possible, just especially because he's 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:10.800 only going to have to beat you know, Alcoraz or Center, 0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:11.560 not both of them. 0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:13.760 Uh DraftKings. I just though it was the first book 0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:16.240 I pulled up does not have men's futures up but 0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:20.600 right now after the draw, but Fandle does Alcoraz plus 0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:24.520 one seventy five, Djokovic plus two thirty, Center plus three 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:28.720 twenty zero ten to one, and Medvedev, uh sixteen to one. 0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:31.080 Of the five guys we mentioned at the top. If 0:15:31.160 --> 0:15:33.640 I came to you from the future and I said, hey, 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:39.160 guess what none of those five guys won, this is 0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:40.720 almost an impossible question to ask. 0:15:41.120 --> 0:15:43.520 Yeah, yeah, yeah, I guess the two kind of the 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:45.920 two narratives that I think are worth pointing out. I 0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:49.200 think well, the one you were kind of teasing, which 0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:54.000 is this is Djokovic's chase for twenty five, like take 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:57.400 cards on the table, this is his worst slam. Yeah, 0:15:57.680 --> 0:16:00.160 I don't even really know how you you need you 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:02.520 need to say any more than that, Like he struggles 0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:04.920 in the heat, he struggles at this venue. But a 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:06.880 lot of the time that's because this is coming in 0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:10.560 the part of the calendar where he's played a sugar 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:16.040 loaded tennis and this wasn't really born out that way. 0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:18.000 So you know, he's he's a little bit more well 0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:20.640 rested than he is in a normal year, I think, 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:23.080 And so that's kind of changes the calculus a bit 0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:24.200 real quick. 0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:27.240 Interrupted with the slams this year, lost a cinner in 0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:30.720 the Semis I believe at the Australia don't pulled out of. 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:32.280 The fringe after round four. 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:35.960 Yeah, and then lost the Wimbledon final too well right. 0:16:35.920 --> 0:16:39.640 Okay, right, sorry, But the intermedia tournaments he was he 0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:42.200 was a no show for a lot of those. So 0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:46.360 it's just his time on court is low and and 0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:49.880 I think the idea there has been a lot of 0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:52.200 swirling circulating, and I don't know how much of this 0:16:52.320 --> 0:16:54.200 is fanboy stuff. For how much of this is coming 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:56.760 from his camp, But there's been a lot of circulating 0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:59.000 like he's going to get number twenty five and then 0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:01.240 right off into the sunset kind of stuff like that. 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:04.600 That's not out of the realm of possibility. 0:17:04.640 --> 0:17:07.760 Considering he seems to have, you be pretty satisfied to 0:17:07.840 --> 0:17:12.479 himself winning gold medal in France. But yeah, I mean, 0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:14.760 you know, if that ultimately becomes the chase here, then 0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:16.320 you got to pay attention to that sort of thing, 0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:19.040 because again, like I didn't think he could elevate his 0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:20.720 game to the level he did at the in the 0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:23.359 Olympic final. We hadn't seen tennis like that from him 0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:26.480 in a really long time, and it was unbelievably impressive stuff. 0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:28.920 And if he decides I'm going to dig down and 0:17:28.960 --> 0:17:31.200 I'm going to find that for a couple of matches 0:17:31.240 --> 0:17:33.280 that I need to in this tournament to get this title, 0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:34.680 and then I can call it a career because I'll 0:17:34.680 --> 0:17:35.280 be satisfied. 0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:37.440 Then I don't think any of this should be surprised. 0:17:38.000 --> 0:17:40.879 The other narrative is I think that the gap between 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:43.720 the top of the men's tour and the bulk of 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:48.399 the men's tour continues to get bigger. There was moments 0:17:48.440 --> 0:17:50.280 in time where the guys at the top were dealing 0:17:50.320 --> 0:17:52.639 with injuries, questions were swirling, all kinds of stuff, and 0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:54.640 you could make the case that this thing is wide open. 0:17:55.000 --> 0:17:57.600 That was making that case for the front open. I 0:17:57.720 --> 0:18:00.840 think that the gap has kind of reastateablished a bit. 0:18:01.920 --> 0:18:04.680 And I you know, if if there is a shock 0:18:04.800 --> 0:18:07.600 surprise winner here, it's going to be a US player 0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:10.560 who just captures the momentum of the crowd. I'll uh, 0:18:11.040 --> 0:18:12.840 you know, Francis Tiafo type of thing. 0:18:13.040 --> 0:18:16.240 I would guess, slash Shelton, that kind of thing. 0:18:16.440 --> 0:18:20.560 Yeah, Tiafo, slash Shelton, slash Tommy Paul, Like those are 0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:23.200 the kind of those guys are playing well enough and 0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:26.600 couldn't you know, kind of get the get the crowd 0:18:26.680 --> 0:18:29.360 behind them to the tune of being a problem here, 0:18:29.440 --> 0:18:30.200 I would suppose. 0:18:30.359 --> 0:18:34.160 But again, like the for any of that to happen, 0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:35.200 they're going to need some help. 0:18:35.320 --> 0:18:37.719 Like I don't think a player like Tiafo is ousting 0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:41.280 Djokovic and then getting uh and then getting Zevera a 0:18:41.280 --> 0:18:43.880 couple of rounds later, and then beating Center or Altcraz 0:18:43.920 --> 0:18:46.960 in the final, right, like they're gonna need a fortunate 0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:48.359 break and that's a little tough to predict. 0:18:49.320 --> 0:18:51.920 Yeah, you said it about Tiafo some time ago. Be 0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:55.400 the home road splits on Tiafo, United States and otherwise 0:18:55.480 --> 0:19:00.680 this is such an interesting thing, Okay, So I don't 0:19:00.680 --> 0:19:03.560 know some exact same question. If it's not one of 0:19:03.600 --> 0:19:04.960