WEBVTT - Betting on Kamala Harris (with special guest Matt Glassman) 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:26.164 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:26.204 --> 0:00:30.284 better decisions. I'm Nate Silver. Marie is out today, but 0:00:30.364 --> 0:00:35.084 my friend and fellow politics slash poker slash degenerate enthusiast 0:00:35.124 --> 0:00:37.924 Matt Glasman is here to talk about Joe Biden dropping 0:00:37.924 --> 0:00:41.324 out and Kamala Harris stepping in. How are you, Matt, come, 0:00:41.444 --> 0:00:41.964 I'm doing great. 0:00:41.964 --> 0:00:44.004 I'm so happy to be here. This is sort of 0:00:44.004 --> 0:00:47.044 the Wheelhouse podcast for me, and hopefully I'll be able 0:00:47.084 --> 0:00:48.524 to contribute in a meaningful way. 0:00:48.764 --> 0:00:50.564 Yeah. Matt is a friend of the pod and a 0:00:50.644 --> 0:00:53.844 senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University. 0:00:54.324 --> 0:00:56.604 He's been on and around the Hill for a decade, 0:00:57.124 --> 0:00:59.204 getting up close and personal with the inner workings of 0:00:59.244 --> 0:01:01.964 the legislature for the Congressional Research Service and the House 0:01:02.004 --> 0:01:05.884 Appropriations Committee. Basically, he knows his stuff and I'm excited 0:01:05.884 --> 0:01:08.284 to have him on. So anything I missed any other 0:01:08.764 --> 0:01:09.404 key context? 0:01:10.004 --> 0:01:12.084 No, I love talking politics, I love talking poker, and 0:01:12.124 --> 0:01:13.804 here we are at the perfect intersection of the two. 0:01:13.924 --> 0:01:14.564 Let's get into it. 0:01:21.244 --> 0:01:24.164 So we're going to kind of go when chronological order here. First, 0:01:24.164 --> 0:01:26.644 talk about what it took for Joe Biden to make 0:01:26.684 --> 0:01:30.204 his decision, then why the party consolidated around Kamala Harris 0:01:30.204 --> 0:01:33.124 so quickly, and then look forward to what Kamala Harris's chances, 0:01:33.284 --> 0:01:36.244 advantages and my abilities might be in the general election 0:01:36.284 --> 0:01:39.244 against Donald Trump. Matt, Where were you when you when 0:01:39.324 --> 0:01:40.924 you first heard the news on Sunday? 0:01:41.604 --> 0:01:44.564 I was stuck in traffic on the New Jersey Turnpike 0:01:44.684 --> 0:01:47.684 down between Exit two and three, heading south on ninety five. 0:01:47.764 --> 0:01:49.964 It was one of those moments where like I knew 0:01:50.004 --> 0:01:52.324 I was gonna remember where I was forever in this spot, 0:01:52.684 --> 0:01:55.124 and here I am stuck in traffic in New Jersey. 0:01:55.204 --> 0:01:57.244 Just came across like the radio and now I'm just 0:01:57.284 --> 0:02:00.324 like stewing in the traffic with time to think. Unbelievable. 0:02:00.324 --> 0:02:02.964 Where were you? Yeah, we were in upstate New York 0:02:03.004 --> 0:02:05.564 and Hudson, New York, kind of gradually driving back to 0:02:06.084 --> 0:02:09.204 the city. I thought we had a nice relaxing day, 0:02:10.404 --> 0:02:12.524 stop for some lunch and go to all the you 0:02:12.524 --> 0:02:14.844 know whatever fruit freu antique stuff up there and things 0:02:14.884 --> 0:02:17.204 like that. I meanwhile, I was trying to run the 0:02:17.204 --> 0:02:19.204 model run for the day. We update the model almost 0:02:19.204 --> 0:02:23.124 every day, even weekends, And I text Eli my fabulous 0:02:23.844 --> 0:02:28.044 assistant elections analyst the newsletter and I'm like, okay, here, 0:02:28.084 --> 0:02:30.324 the numbers are ready for you. He produces the graphics 0:02:30.364 --> 0:02:33.044 and he texts back just Joe Biden's tweet. It was 0:02:33.124 --> 0:02:34.684 kind of hard to decipher at first. It was a 0:02:34.764 --> 0:02:37.724 very long tweet, right, It didn't say I'm dropping out. 0:02:37.724 --> 0:02:39.364 You have to like read a like the fourth paragraph. 0:02:39.444 --> 0:02:41.924 And I went to poly market and it's like Biden's 0:02:41.964 --> 0:02:45.044 dropping out ninety eight percent or whatever. But yeah, I 0:02:45.084 --> 0:02:47.884 mean it's never like it's never like, you know, usually 0:02:47.964 --> 0:02:51.604 made a poker tournament with something like this happens. But yeah, yeah, 0:02:51.604 --> 0:02:53.084 I was kind of stuck up there with not very 0:02:53.164 --> 0:02:54.084 much Wi Fi signal. 0:02:54.364 --> 0:02:56.724 I was in a World Series event during the debate, 0:02:57.204 --> 0:02:59.244 and so I was sitting in one of those rooms 0:02:59.244 --> 0:03:01.164 at the Horseshoe and no one is watching the bait. 0:03:01.204 --> 0:03:02.724 It's not in the TV anywhere, and all I'm getting 0:03:02.724 --> 0:03:05.604 these furious texts like, oh my god, this can't be happening. 0:03:05.604 --> 0:03:08.124 What is happening? What is happening? And yeah, there's sort 0:03:08.124 --> 0:03:09.924 of like a helpless feeling to it. Right, We're just 0:03:09.924 --> 0:03:11.644 stuck in traffick in New Jersey and all I want 0:03:11.684 --> 0:03:14.124 to do is like ask people things and tell people things, 0:03:14.204 --> 0:03:16.244 and know here I am staring at the Delam World 0:03:16.244 --> 0:03:17.084 Bridge for half an hour. 0:03:17.284 --> 0:03:20.604 It's it's a bunch of moments, right. It's the assassination 0:03:20.804 --> 0:03:24.764 attempt against Trump, which the winds playing a different direction 0:03:24.804 --> 0:03:26.684 and we're in a very different world. Right. It's the 0:03:26.884 --> 0:03:28.924 it's the debate. It's the fact that it was only 0:03:28.964 --> 0:03:30.684 a month ago or something that Trump was convicted I 0:03:30.724 --> 0:03:32.964 guess more than a month ago, now, like six weeks ago, 0:03:32.964 --> 0:03:35.564 seven weeks ago he was convicted on various felony counts. 0:03:36.404 --> 0:03:39.364 And the fact that, like there's been this consolidation around 0:03:39.444 --> 0:03:43.924 Kamala Harris, we may soon have the first, uh first 0:03:43.964 --> 0:03:48.404 woman of color, everybody nominated by a major presidential ticket. Yeah, 0:03:48.404 --> 0:03:50.084 they packed a lot. They packed a lot in here, 0:03:50.124 --> 0:03:53.684 I think. But but putting on more of a political 0:03:53.724 --> 0:03:59.684 science government institutional observer hat, if you were making bets 0:03:59.684 --> 0:04:04.204 on prediction markets and we would have bought dropout stock, Matt, 0:04:04.204 --> 0:04:06.524 can you tell me more of the thinking behind that 0:04:06.684 --> 0:04:09.324 and kind of what this says about political parties, or 0:04:09.404 --> 0:04:10.564 at least the Democratic Party. 0:04:11.044 --> 0:04:13.164 Sure, I mean, I think the main thing to take 0:04:13.204 --> 0:04:17.124 away from this is that you know, parties matter, and 0:04:17.164 --> 0:04:20.564 that individual candidates for office, be it the president United States, 0:04:20.604 --> 0:04:23.604 a member of Congress, someone running for the PTA, aren't 0:04:23.644 --> 0:04:26.044 just sort of these individuals up there with authority. They 0:04:26.084 --> 0:04:29.124 have these coalitions underneath them. And you exist because you 0:04:29.124 --> 0:04:32.164 have a coalition of voters and interest groups and money 0:04:32.164 --> 0:04:34.604 people and other politicians who support you. And if they 0:04:34.644 --> 0:04:38.084 withdraw their support, right, it really collapses on you, almost 0:04:38.124 --> 0:04:40.284 like a sand castle underneath you. And this was sort 0:04:40.284 --> 0:04:43.524 of an open question because presidents have become so powerful 0:04:43.764 --> 0:04:46.004 and when we think about them in terms of parties, 0:04:46.044 --> 0:04:47.884 often we think the president controls the party. 0:04:48.084 --> 0:04:48.244 Right. 0:04:48.244 --> 0:04:50.044 In the nineteenth century, we knew that wasn't true. The 0:04:50.044 --> 0:04:51.884 party was dominant. In the twentieth century it was sort 0:04:51.884 --> 0:04:54.444 of a battle between parties and presidents. But now we think, well, 0:04:54.484 --> 0:04:58.924 the president controls the party and he reshapes the party, right. 0:04:58.964 --> 0:05:00.684 You see this with Clinton or with Trump, like the 0:05:00.684 --> 0:05:03.004 party just reshapes under them. They pick the DNC heads, 0:05:03.124 --> 0:05:05.084 they pick all the sort of the people. But when 0:05:05.084 --> 0:05:07.684 push comes to shove, it turns out parties are still 0:05:07.724 --> 0:05:10.484 important actor And you could see as soon as elite 0:05:10.564 --> 0:05:13.924 actors and the populace start to withdraw their support of Biden. 0:05:14.084 --> 0:05:15.124 It just collapsed on them. 0:05:15.364 --> 0:05:18.564 Yeah, and Joe Biden in particular is a politician who 0:05:18.964 --> 0:05:21.724 was dependent on the support of his party. Right, I mean, 0:05:21.724 --> 0:05:25.124 look at think about twenty twenty was not quite like 0:05:25.484 --> 0:05:28.884 Biden dropping out moment. But you kind of have like 0:05:28.924 --> 0:05:32.164 the super friends get together and they flew, am I 0:05:32.204 --> 0:05:33.924 getting this remember in this right, Like Pete Buha, Jude 0:05:33.964 --> 0:05:36.564 and Amy Klomachar like all flew to like the same 0:05:36.644 --> 0:05:40.684 rally to like endorse Biden after Jim Clyburn had endorsed 0:05:40.764 --> 0:05:44.284 him in South Carolina. So this is two elections in 0:05:44.324 --> 0:05:48.564 a row where the Democratic Party made a really strong move. 0:05:48.724 --> 0:05:50.964 And yeah, I mean because if you read the reporting, 0:05:53.044 --> 0:05:55.044 Nancy Pelosi say we can do this the easy way 0:05:55.124 --> 0:06:00.124 or do it the hard way. And apparently people in 0:06:00.164 --> 0:06:02.964 his inner circle were at least willing to level with 0:06:03.084 --> 0:06:08.164 him about about the polling being very bad about I mean, 0:06:08.204 --> 0:06:10.924 apparently they hadn't actually done very much pulling in the 0:06:10.964 --> 0:06:12.884 past couple of months. It's the fact that Biden hadn't 0:06:12.884 --> 0:06:14.684 been polling the White House, had not been pulling the 0:06:14.684 --> 0:06:18.284 swing States was probably a bad sign. But something got 0:06:18.284 --> 0:06:20.044 through to him. But play it out what had happened. 0:06:20.284 --> 0:06:22.124 What would the next week, Matt, do you think have 0:06:22.204 --> 0:06:25.084 looked like if Biden remained obstinate and said I don't 0:06:25.084 --> 0:06:25.444 want to go. 0:06:26.044 --> 0:06:28.324 Yeah, I mean, I think they're playing this game of 0:06:28.404 --> 0:06:32.284 chicken where it's quite obvious that the party actors want 0:06:32.364 --> 0:06:34.684 him go on, and it's quite obvious that he is 0:06:34.724 --> 0:06:37.804 resistant to that idea, and lurking in the background is 0:06:37.844 --> 0:06:39.884 the idea of like, are you willing to sort of 0:06:39.884 --> 0:06:42.724 wreck the party to get your way here? And that 0:06:42.764 --> 0:06:44.604 made it precare us for everyone, because I think no 0:06:44.684 --> 0:06:48.004 one sort of thought of this as a situation where 0:06:48.044 --> 0:06:50.244 you could credibly commit to sort of the game of 0:06:50.324 --> 0:06:52.284 chicken like we would in game theory, right, Whether the 0:06:52.404 --> 0:06:54.004 key to the game of chicken, if two cars are 0:06:54.004 --> 0:06:56.324 sort of heading at each other, is to just credibly 0:06:56.324 --> 0:06:58.364 commit that you're not going to swerve, throw the steering 0:06:58.404 --> 0:07:00.604 ro out the window, improve you can't swerve to make 0:07:00.644 --> 0:07:03.404 their payoffs have to be better to swerve than to 0:07:03.484 --> 0:07:05.804 keep going, and hope you swerve. You can't anymore. Now, 0:07:05.804 --> 0:07:06.964 I think what was going to happen in the next 0:07:07.004 --> 0:07:08.484 week was they're going to ramp up the game of 0:07:08.564 --> 0:07:10.924 chicken to the point where maybe it was going to 0:07:11.004 --> 0:07:13.044 hurt his chances of winning the presidency if he did 0:07:13.044 --> 0:07:15.404 hold on. Essentially, they were going to sort of credibly 0:07:15.404 --> 0:07:17.364 commit it to say, look, you can be the nominee 0:07:17.364 --> 0:07:19.124 if you don't want to deal with us, but you're 0:07:19.124 --> 0:07:20.764 going to lose the election. And that's sort of like 0:07:20.804 --> 0:07:23.804 the extreme version, but it was headed that direction. Everyone 0:07:23.844 --> 0:07:25.724 was circling around him, and I think the writing's on 0:07:25.764 --> 0:07:28.124 the wall and sort of, you know, Biden then takes 0:07:28.164 --> 0:07:30.924 the sort of obvious way out right, which is do 0:07:31.004 --> 0:07:33.084 the quote unquote right thing for the party, which is 0:07:33.124 --> 0:07:34.804 what it's ended up going to be presented as, like 0:07:34.844 --> 0:07:36.644 the party is not stupid, Like the message's going to 0:07:36.644 --> 0:07:39.604 be here, a huge celebration of Biden passing the torch, doesn't. 0:07:40.564 --> 0:07:42.324 I can't imagine what this convention is going to look like, right, 0:07:42.324 --> 0:07:44.964 It's gonna's a huge celebration of Biden's career and his 0:07:45.124 --> 0:07:47.484 presidency and always accomplished. And then they're going to hand 0:07:47.484 --> 0:07:49.684 it over to Harris and it's all going to look like, well, 0:07:49.684 --> 0:07:51.524 Biden did this noble thing, which I don't buy for 0:07:51.564 --> 0:07:53.804 a second. They shoved him out, and this is why 0:07:53.844 --> 0:07:56.244 parties pass those things up. I mean, one thing I 0:07:56.244 --> 0:07:59.524 wanted to go back to is this this idea of 0:07:59.524 --> 0:08:02.164 how parties think people started to get worried about their 0:08:02.164 --> 0:08:05.564 own re elections, and and that's an important piece of parties. 0:08:05.564 --> 0:08:07.924 Their group decisions and the people in the parties have 0:08:08.004 --> 0:08:09.884 all different goals and they don't even have to have 0:08:09.964 --> 0:08:12.204 the same goal to arrive at the same conclusion. Like 0:08:12.244 --> 0:08:14.044 a lot of House members and swing districts might have 0:08:14.084 --> 0:08:16.084 start worried about their own reelection. As you point out, 0:08:16.284 --> 0:08:18.524 party leaders or members of the House might start worried 0:08:18.524 --> 0:08:20.724 about control of the chamber right and might be like, well, 0:08:20.764 --> 0:08:22.404 we can lose with anyone, but let's not go down 0:08:22.444 --> 0:08:25.124 and flames here. Let's hold onto the House. Other people 0:08:25.164 --> 0:08:27.644 might have been concerned about policies. They might decided, well, 0:08:27.884 --> 0:08:30.324 Biden's old and honestly Harris will be better on this issue, 0:08:30.364 --> 0:08:31.604 or that it should have been an agenda that's more 0:08:31.644 --> 0:08:34.684 comftabed with me. And you know, others might think Harris 0:08:34.724 --> 0:08:36.364 just actually has a better chance, and they're worried about 0:08:36.364 --> 0:08:39.964 controlling the presidency, and all these things come together and 0:08:40.284 --> 0:08:43.684 ultimately like it congeals into a decision, but it's not 0:08:43.724 --> 0:08:46.564 like everyone made this decision for the same reason within 0:08:46.564 --> 0:08:49.204 the party. The party output spits out in some way 0:08:49.244 --> 0:08:51.164 that you hope is rational, But it's a collection of 0:08:51.164 --> 0:08:53.564 individuals who all thinking differently, And this isn't like a 0:08:53.604 --> 0:08:55.444 surprise anyone, Like if you've ever been at a PTA 0:08:55.564 --> 0:08:57.444 meeting or an HOA meeting, or just decide where to 0:08:57.444 --> 0:08:59.764 go to dinner with your family, Like, group decisions are 0:08:59.764 --> 0:09:03.764 not sort of like necessarily meta rational, but each individual 0:09:03.844 --> 0:09:06.044 might be acting rational to create sort of the endpoint. 0:09:06.124 --> 0:09:08.604 I mean, apparently, according to reporting like this was a 0:09:08.644 --> 0:09:12.564 relatively recent decision. By the way, we have not actually 0:09:12.724 --> 0:09:14.324 heard from Maybe by the time you listen to this 0:09:14.364 --> 0:09:17.324 you will have right. We haven't heard from Biden directly 0:09:17.404 --> 0:09:21.204 beyond these initial statements on Twitter and other social media networks, 0:09:21.204 --> 0:09:25.444 which is a little bit strange, I suppose. But as 0:09:25.484 --> 0:09:28.004 someone who has spent more time in and around the 0:09:28.004 --> 0:09:31.084 halls of power and more time in DC and mesanity 0:09:31.124 --> 0:09:34.644 than I have, what do you think the inner circle 0:09:34.684 --> 0:09:37.124 of the White House was thinking? I mean, there's been 0:09:37.124 --> 0:09:40.684 reporting that the Biden campaign was in some form of 0:09:40.724 --> 0:09:44.804 denial about what the polls said. Do you think they 0:09:46.324 --> 0:09:48.644 knew deep down that this wasn't working. Do you think 0:09:48.724 --> 0:09:50.484 they were drinking the kool aid? Do you think they 0:09:50.484 --> 0:09:53.484 felt like they had like a professional obligation to play 0:09:53.524 --> 0:09:56.364 out the string for Biden or what I mean? 0:09:56.404 --> 0:10:00.444 I think that it's very easy when you're a campaign 0:10:00.444 --> 0:10:03.964 staffer or a staffer to an elected official, to talk 0:10:04.004 --> 0:10:07.244 yourself into the reasons why they're indispensable. One thing is 0:10:07.284 --> 0:10:09.284 that the incentives of the staffers are a little different 0:10:09.444 --> 0:10:13.004 and the incentives of the principles in these spots. If 0:10:13.684 --> 0:10:16.484 you know, if a staffer gives up on Biden and 0:10:16.524 --> 0:10:18.844 says it's time to throw in the towel, they're probably 0:10:18.884 --> 0:10:21.924 out of a job on the campaign, especially at the 0:10:21.964 --> 0:10:24.124 top senior levels. They're probably out of our future job 0:10:24.124 --> 0:10:26.324 in a different administration in the White House. And it 0:10:26.364 --> 0:10:28.324 doesn't surprise me at all that the people close to 0:10:28.364 --> 0:10:30.004 the Biden would be the people most resistant to this. 0:10:30.044 --> 0:10:32.364 I mean, it's almost just human nature, right. This is 0:10:32.404 --> 0:10:34.764 their guy, and of course he's going to beat Trump. 0:10:34.804 --> 0:10:36.804 He's beat Trump in the past, and like this isn't 0:10:36.804 --> 0:10:39.884 just talking points, Like you can actually believe this. And 0:10:40.004 --> 0:10:42.964 I don't think it like was lost on them that 0:10:43.284 --> 0:10:45.804 they probably don't think much or as much as other 0:10:45.804 --> 0:10:47.884 people do, of sort of like Harris's chances. 0:10:48.004 --> 0:10:50.724 I mean, we're gonna talk about Harris in a second, 0:10:50.724 --> 0:10:53.364 including the complex dynamics of like why the White House 0:10:53.364 --> 0:10:56.604 seemed to lack confidence in her. Maybe let me ask 0:10:57.324 --> 0:11:01.604 one more question, though, Is this evidence that Democrats are 0:11:01.604 --> 0:11:06.324 more rational than Republicans or is that not a fair conclusion. 0:11:06.964 --> 0:11:09.404 I don't know if it's. I mean, it's certainly evident. 0:11:09.964 --> 0:11:13.124 It's one piece of evidence that way. And I do 0:11:13.164 --> 0:11:16.524 think sort of Trump and sort of populous like Trump 0:11:16.724 --> 0:11:19.364 tend to produce these cults of personality. I'm proud of 0:11:19.364 --> 0:11:21.164 them party for doing this right. This is not an 0:11:21.204 --> 0:11:23.764 easy thing for a party to do. And if you've 0:11:23.804 --> 0:11:25.204 ever been in a room trying to make a decision 0:11:25.204 --> 0:11:26.884 with ten people, you can imagine how hard it is 0:11:26.924 --> 0:11:30.124 to turn around in that decision. And so I think 0:11:30.124 --> 0:11:33.484 they did really well here for themselves. I don't think 0:11:33.524 --> 0:11:36.284 it says anything about them relatively Republicans, except in this 0:11:36.364 --> 0:11:38.644 current instance. It's hard to picture Trump being pushed out 0:11:38.644 --> 0:11:42.404 this way, but again that's Trump's a different type of leader, 0:11:42.444 --> 0:11:45.004 a different person. If the Republicans were faced with, you know, 0:11:45.164 --> 0:11:47.644 sort of our mirror image of Biden. I can imagine 0:11:47.644 --> 0:11:48.444 them doing the same thing. 0:11:53.444 --> 0:11:55.284 We're going to take a quick break. When we return, 0:11:55.404 --> 0:12:10.404 Matt and I will talk about Kamala Harris. So, Matt, 0:12:11.124 --> 0:12:15.284 if you go to Polymarket or other betting markets, Kamala 0:12:15.324 --> 0:12:17.924 Harra says about an eighty three percent chance when I 0:12:17.924 --> 0:12:22.564 looked fifteen minutes ago to be the Democratic nominee for president. 0:12:23.724 --> 0:12:26.604 Is eighty three percent too high or too low? 0:12:27.444 --> 0:12:30.524 I'm buying at eighty three. I think, I really think 0:12:30.604 --> 0:12:33.244 she's at the point where what you're talking about is 0:12:33.244 --> 0:12:35.884 sort of the three to five to seven percent whatever 0:12:35.924 --> 0:12:38.644 it is of sort of like black swan event keeping 0:12:38.644 --> 0:12:40.884 her from the nomination. That could be some undisclosed piece 0:12:40.924 --> 0:12:43.844 of information, or she could be sick, knock on wood 0:12:43.964 --> 0:12:47.044 or whatever and something go wrong. But I think she's 0:12:47.164 --> 0:12:50.044 virtually a lock at this point. The way the Democrats 0:12:50.084 --> 0:12:55.044 have consolidated around her is remarkable. Everybody just flew out 0:12:55.084 --> 0:12:57.524 from across the spectrum. You had the CBC, you had 0:12:57.604 --> 0:13:00.724 various House and Senate members, you had her opponents, and 0:13:01.604 --> 0:13:03.644 basically what they did was they said, you know, this 0:13:03.724 --> 0:13:05.764 is a done deal. What those endorsements mean. Starting with 0:13:05.804 --> 0:13:09.364 the President and then it keeps any sort of potential challenge. 0:13:09.684 --> 0:13:12.044 And now I see every possible challenger to her has 0:13:12.084 --> 0:13:15.044 basically endorsed her, So the field has been cleared. 0:13:15.244 --> 0:13:17.684 Yeah, do you think this just like guaranteed to happen 0:13:17.684 --> 0:13:19.364 and we're just discovering that now, or do you think 0:13:19.364 --> 0:13:23.764 it's a situation where like it's kind of an unstable equilibrium. 0:13:23.964 --> 0:13:27.564 Once the herd starts to move one way, then the 0:13:27.604 --> 0:13:30.484 outcome becomes inevitable. Therefore you want to jump on the bandwagon. 0:13:30.524 --> 0:13:34.444 How many metaphors am I mixing here? But like, do 0:13:34.484 --> 0:13:36.524 you think there's a world in which this doesn't happen 0:13:36.644 --> 0:13:38.644 that's adjacent to the actual world that we live in? 0:13:40.404 --> 0:13:44.484 Only if sort of she thought that her stepping aside 0:13:44.484 --> 0:13:47.284 would help the party too in some sort of altruistic way. 0:13:47.524 --> 0:13:50.484 I think the issue here is that the big danger 0:13:50.524 --> 0:13:52.444 for the party in Biden stepping aside was that they 0:13:52.484 --> 0:13:54.444 weren't gonna be able to put the coalition back together, 0:13:54.684 --> 0:13:57.404 like the big Coalition was going to crack, and that 0:13:57.484 --> 0:13:59.084 it was never gonna be able to clean up by anyone, 0:13:59.124 --> 0:14:01.404 And you're gonna have people who were bitter and vindictive 0:14:01.444 --> 0:14:05.004 about what happened and looks like they've minimized that. But 0:14:05.564 --> 0:14:08.484 passing over her would have been the most obvious way 0:14:08.524 --> 0:14:10.564 to create that sity situation where you're not gonna be 0:14:10.564 --> 0:14:13.564 able to put the coalition back together for any number 0:14:13.564 --> 0:14:15.884 of reasons. Her and her people directly sort of the 0:14:15.884 --> 0:14:18.924 people who support her interests, sort of a script of 0:14:18.924 --> 0:14:21.684 representation groups if you anger sort of African Americans and 0:14:21.764 --> 0:14:24.284 you skip over her for you know, Whitmer or whatever. 0:14:24.804 --> 0:14:26.924 And so I think this was the most obvious way 0:14:26.964 --> 0:14:30.884 to go it least party tension and best chance to 0:14:30.924 --> 0:14:33.084 make sure the coalition comes back together, which there is 0:14:33.084 --> 0:14:35.724 no guarantee anyway, Like there's still that one group that 0:14:35.764 --> 0:14:38.124 you worry about, which is sort of like the hardcore 0:14:38.204 --> 0:14:40.924 inner circle. Biden Knight's not playing nice and I don't 0:14:40.924 --> 0:14:43.364 think that's gonna happen, but they're still sort of out there. 0:14:44.124 --> 0:14:46.524 The advance for Harris in terms of information reveal over 0:14:46.564 --> 0:14:48.604 any other candidate is also there. She's been vetted in 0:14:48.644 --> 0:14:52.084 a national election before, which is not nothing. If we 0:14:52.124 --> 0:14:54.724 had gone with Whitmer, like great year governor of state, 0:14:54.924 --> 0:14:57.444 We've seen plenty of governors of states have stuff revealed 0:14:57.444 --> 0:15:01.124 about them in national elections and national primaries that cause 0:15:01.204 --> 0:15:03.404 problems from a vetting point of view, and so she's 0:15:03.684 --> 0:15:06.764 a safe candidate in that sense. But the most important 0:15:06.764 --> 0:15:08.404 thing is that she's the vice president of United States. 0:15:08.484 --> 0:15:10.764 She's the obvious there parent. Biden picked her to be 0:15:10.804 --> 0:15:13.204 second in command, and now you're stepping aside. You better 0:15:13.204 --> 0:15:14.924 come up with a damn good reason to pass over 0:15:14.964 --> 0:15:16.484 her if you want to keep party harmony. 0:15:17.004 --> 0:15:18.804 And probably the way it could have been done would 0:15:18.844 --> 0:15:20.804 be to have this kind of mini primary where you 0:15:20.804 --> 0:15:25.844 have somehow public forums voter participation like that might have 0:15:25.884 --> 0:15:27.644 been tenable, But it also seemed like not very many 0:15:27.684 --> 0:15:30.284 of the people were that interested in the job because 0:15:30.364 --> 0:15:33.884 Joe Biden has been wobbling for how w was debate 0:15:33.924 --> 0:15:37.244 almost a month ago now right. If you were Gavin 0:15:37.324 --> 0:15:41.884 Newsome and you were really interested in the nomination, I mean, 0:15:41.924 --> 0:15:45.204 you would probably have floated something sooner or like tried 0:15:45.244 --> 0:15:47.044 to start some momentum running and there was like no 0:15:47.084 --> 0:15:50.204 other obvious alternative. But like, but look, let me ask 0:15:50.244 --> 0:15:56.004 you this, based on reporting, the White House itself is 0:15:56.044 --> 0:16:01.364 not that confident about Kamala Harris's chances against Trump. She 0:16:01.804 --> 0:16:05.804 is down in the polls currently against Trump. That might change. 0:16:05.844 --> 0:16:07.964 Poles sometimes change when you go from being a hypothetical 0:16:08.004 --> 0:16:10.724 to an actual candidate. But but for the time being, 0:16:10.724 --> 0:16:14.364 her polling looks maybe a point better than Biden's. But 0:16:14.404 --> 0:16:17.484 Biden's polling was pretty bad, so that's not saying very much. 0:16:19.004 --> 0:16:21.084 Why would a can who we've just been were a 0:16:21.084 --> 0:16:25.004 party rather who we've just been praising for being hyper rational? 0:16:26.644 --> 0:16:31.324 Why would they worry about not wanting to offend X 0:16:31.404 --> 0:16:34.524 or Y in group or outgroup if they can increase 0:16:34.564 --> 0:16:37.964 their chances of beating Trump from say thirty five percent, 0:16:38.004 --> 0:16:40.244 which is roughly what prediction markets assumed about hair As 0:16:40.324 --> 0:16:43.644 to like fifty or fifty five percent with the hypothetical 0:16:43.724 --> 0:16:47.604 perfect you know, Gretchen Whitmer, I don't know who else 0:16:47.644 --> 0:16:48.804 ticket I've. 0:16:48.684 --> 0:16:50.764 Put Whitmer and Shapiro on a ticket and just be like, well, 0:16:50.804 --> 0:16:53.524 now we're coming after Michigan and Pennsylvania, that kind of thing. 0:16:53.924 --> 0:16:54.324 I think. 0:16:54.644 --> 0:16:57.924 I think that the parties are probably a little too 0:16:58.004 --> 0:17:01.164 risk averse in situations like this, but the fear of 0:17:01.404 --> 0:17:05.804 party crack up always looms over any sort of coalition, 0:17:06.884 --> 0:17:10.084 and I think they thought that, you know, if we're 0:17:10.124 --> 0:17:13.084 pushing Biden out because he's too old and he can't 0:17:13.084 --> 0:17:16.364 do this anymore. Then we're not saying he ran a 0:17:16.364 --> 0:17:18.604 bad administration. We're not saying there's any wrong with the administration. 0:17:18.644 --> 0:17:20.804 There's not anything wrong with his record. And so what 0:17:20.924 --> 0:17:24.684 is your reasoning for going around Harris except that you're saying, oh, well, 0:17:24.724 --> 0:17:28.324 other people pull better. Maybe maybe they do. But again, 0:17:28.364 --> 0:17:30.764 I think the party crack up aspect of this looms 0:17:30.764 --> 0:17:33.004 so large, and I think the only way to get 0:17:33.044 --> 0:17:35.684 around Harris was to have that open competition. And I 0:17:35.684 --> 0:17:38.444 don't think the party wanted an open competition. I don't 0:17:38.484 --> 0:17:41.484 think parties ever want that situation, right, because that is 0:17:41.484 --> 0:17:44.684 what creates sort of bad blood. And what happens if 0:17:44.684 --> 0:17:46.644 you end up in a situation where an open competition 0:17:46.964 --> 0:17:49.444 and you have a narrow victory, right, where does that 0:17:49.524 --> 0:17:52.084 leave everybody? What does that clean up? You're just asking 0:17:52.084 --> 0:17:55.084 people to back the party, and I think this is 0:17:55.364 --> 0:17:57.604 sort of the safest route. 0:17:57.644 --> 0:17:57.844 Right. 0:17:57.884 --> 0:17:59.924 Again, there's a variance issue here. They may be thinking 0:17:59.924 --> 0:18:03.084 about variance incorrectly. They may need variants right now. I 0:18:03.084 --> 0:18:04.644 think that's the point you've made in the past. But 0:18:04.724 --> 0:18:07.124 there's a huge variance issue. And if you're thinking about 0:18:07.204 --> 0:18:10.364 protecting the House representatives, for instance, and your best chance 0:18:10.404 --> 0:18:12.404 to take control of the House all of a sudden 0:18:12.604 --> 0:18:15.764 losing with Harris keeping the coalition intact, It's not the 0:18:15.804 --> 0:18:17.244 worst thing in the world. We know where we'll get. 0:18:17.684 --> 0:18:20.124 It won't be the disaster of old man Biden, like 0:18:20.164 --> 0:18:22.084 falling asleep on the campaign trail sometime in the next 0:18:22.084 --> 0:18:23.684 two months. I mean, that was the real disaster that 0:18:23.764 --> 0:18:26.644 was looming, is that Biden would completely self destruct in 0:18:26.684 --> 0:18:29.884 October and the entire Democratic Party were from crashing down 0:18:29.884 --> 0:18:33.204 with him. That won't happen with Harris to lose. Maybe 0:18:33.204 --> 0:18:35.364 she's a bad candidate, right or whatever reason, Like she 0:18:35.364 --> 0:18:37.964 doesn't do well. Trump wins, but it doesn't feel like 0:18:38.804 --> 0:18:41.164 she's gonna go out there and just bring the Democratic 0:18:41.204 --> 0:18:44.204 Party down with her, and the crackup could cause that. 0:18:44.284 --> 0:18:47.204 Now again, you may be looking for variants. You may 0:18:47.204 --> 0:18:50.724 be looking for Josh Shapiro to shake things up, or 0:18:50.764 --> 0:18:53.444 Gretchen Whitmer. I think Whitmer is probably the only other 0:18:53.524 --> 0:18:57.244 realistic option. The Democrat Party is a collection of interest in. 0:18:57.244 --> 0:18:59.244 One of those interests is that we have wide representation 0:18:59.404 --> 0:19:02.044 of both mind maority groups and women, and to pass 0:19:02.084 --> 0:19:04.924 over to Harris and then pass over Whitmer and be like, oh, look, dude, 0:19:04.924 --> 0:19:07.244 we got this white guy in Pennsylvania. It's gonna be perfect. 0:19:07.404 --> 0:19:09.484 I think that would have caused enough tension in the part. 0:19:14.044 --> 0:19:16.164 Right. I think came the closest anyone actually saying he 0:19:16.244 --> 0:19:18.404 wanted it. It's like the Biden campaign was, like, among 0:19:18.444 --> 0:19:23.684