1 00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:26,164 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:26,204 --> 00:00:30,284 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Nate Silver. Marie is out today, but 3 00:00:30,364 --> 00:00:35,084 Speaker 1: my friend and fellow politics slash poker slash degenerate enthusiast 4 00:00:35,124 --> 00:00:37,924 Speaker 1: Matt Glasman is here to talk about Joe Biden dropping 5 00:00:37,924 --> 00:00:41,324 Speaker 1: out and Kamala Harris stepping in. How are you, Matt, come, 6 00:00:41,444 --> 00:00:41,964 Speaker 1: I'm doing great. 7 00:00:41,964 --> 00:00:44,004 Speaker 2: I'm so happy to be here. This is sort of 8 00:00:44,004 --> 00:00:47,044 Speaker 2: the Wheelhouse podcast for me, and hopefully I'll be able 9 00:00:47,084 --> 00:00:48,524 Speaker 2: to contribute in a meaningful way. 10 00:00:48,764 --> 00:00:50,564 Speaker 1: Yeah. Matt is a friend of the pod and a 11 00:00:50,644 --> 00:00:53,844 Speaker 1: senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University. 12 00:00:54,324 --> 00:00:56,604 Speaker 1: He's been on and around the Hill for a decade, 13 00:00:57,124 --> 00:00:59,204 Speaker 1: getting up close and personal with the inner workings of 14 00:00:59,244 --> 00:01:01,964 Speaker 1: the legislature for the Congressional Research Service and the House 15 00:01:02,004 --> 00:01:05,884 Speaker 1: Appropriations Committee. Basically, he knows his stuff and I'm excited 16 00:01:05,884 --> 00:01:08,284 Speaker 1: to have him on. So anything I missed any other 17 00:01:08,764 --> 00:01:09,404 Speaker 1: key context? 18 00:01:10,004 --> 00:01:12,084 Speaker 2: No, I love talking politics, I love talking poker, and 19 00:01:12,124 --> 00:01:13,804 Speaker 2: here we are at the perfect intersection of the two. 20 00:01:13,924 --> 00:01:14,564 Speaker 2: Let's get into it. 21 00:01:21,244 --> 00:01:24,164 Speaker 1: So we're going to kind of go when chronological order here. First, 22 00:01:24,164 --> 00:01:26,644 Speaker 1: talk about what it took for Joe Biden to make 23 00:01:26,684 --> 00:01:30,204 Speaker 1: his decision, then why the party consolidated around Kamala Harris 24 00:01:30,204 --> 00:01:33,124 Speaker 1: so quickly, and then look forward to what Kamala Harris's chances, 25 00:01:33,284 --> 00:01:36,244 Speaker 1: advantages and my abilities might be in the general election 26 00:01:36,284 --> 00:01:39,244 Speaker 1: against Donald Trump. Matt, Where were you when you when 27 00:01:39,324 --> 00:01:40,924 Speaker 1: you first heard the news on Sunday? 28 00:01:41,604 --> 00:01:44,564 Speaker 2: I was stuck in traffic on the New Jersey Turnpike 29 00:01:44,684 --> 00:01:47,684 Speaker 2: down between Exit two and three, heading south on ninety five. 30 00:01:47,764 --> 00:01:49,964 Speaker 2: It was one of those moments where like I knew 31 00:01:50,004 --> 00:01:52,324 Speaker 2: I was gonna remember where I was forever in this spot, 32 00:01:52,684 --> 00:01:55,124 Speaker 2: and here I am stuck in traffic in New Jersey. 33 00:01:55,204 --> 00:01:57,244 Speaker 2: Just came across like the radio and now I'm just 34 00:01:57,284 --> 00:02:00,324 Speaker 2: like stewing in the traffic with time to think. Unbelievable. 35 00:02:00,324 --> 00:02:02,964 Speaker 1: Where were you? Yeah, we were in upstate New York 36 00:02:03,004 --> 00:02:05,564 Speaker 1: and Hudson, New York, kind of gradually driving back to 37 00:02:06,084 --> 00:02:09,204 Speaker 1: the city. I thought we had a nice relaxing day, 38 00:02:10,404 --> 00:02:12,524 Speaker 1: stop for some lunch and go to all the you 39 00:02:12,524 --> 00:02:14,844 Speaker 1: know whatever fruit freu antique stuff up there and things 40 00:02:14,884 --> 00:02:17,204 Speaker 1: like that. I meanwhile, I was trying to run the 41 00:02:17,204 --> 00:02:19,204 Speaker 1: model run for the day. We update the model almost 42 00:02:19,204 --> 00:02:23,124 Speaker 1: every day, even weekends, And I text Eli my fabulous 43 00:02:23,844 --> 00:02:28,044 Speaker 1: assistant elections analyst the newsletter and I'm like, okay, here, 44 00:02:28,084 --> 00:02:30,324 Speaker 1: the numbers are ready for you. He produces the graphics 45 00:02:30,364 --> 00:02:33,044 Speaker 1: and he texts back just Joe Biden's tweet. It was 46 00:02:33,124 --> 00:02:34,684 Speaker 1: kind of hard to decipher at first. It was a 47 00:02:34,764 --> 00:02:37,724 Speaker 1: very long tweet, right, It didn't say I'm dropping out. 48 00:02:37,724 --> 00:02:39,364 Speaker 1: You have to like read a like the fourth paragraph. 49 00:02:39,444 --> 00:02:41,924 Speaker 1: And I went to poly market and it's like Biden's 50 00:02:41,964 --> 00:02:45,044 Speaker 1: dropping out ninety eight percent or whatever. But yeah, I 51 00:02:45,084 --> 00:02:47,884 Speaker 1: mean it's never like it's never like, you know, usually 52 00:02:47,964 --> 00:02:51,604 Speaker 1: made a poker tournament with something like this happens. But yeah, yeah, 53 00:02:51,604 --> 00:02:53,084 Speaker 1: I was kind of stuck up there with not very 54 00:02:53,164 --> 00:02:54,084 Speaker 1: much Wi Fi signal. 55 00:02:54,364 --> 00:02:56,724 Speaker 2: I was in a World Series event during the debate, 56 00:02:57,204 --> 00:02:59,244 Speaker 2: and so I was sitting in one of those rooms 57 00:02:59,244 --> 00:03:01,164 Speaker 2: at the Horseshoe and no one is watching the bait. 58 00:03:01,204 --> 00:03:02,724 Speaker 2: It's not in the TV anywhere, and all I'm getting 59 00:03:02,724 --> 00:03:05,604 Speaker 2: these furious texts like, oh my god, this can't be happening. 60 00:03:05,604 --> 00:03:08,124 Speaker 2: What is happening? What is happening? And yeah, there's sort 61 00:03:08,124 --> 00:03:09,924 Speaker 2: of like a helpless feeling to it. Right, We're just 62 00:03:09,924 --> 00:03:11,644 Speaker 2: stuck in traffick in New Jersey and all I want 63 00:03:11,684 --> 00:03:14,124 Speaker 2: to do is like ask people things and tell people things, 64 00:03:14,204 --> 00:03:16,244 Speaker 2: and know here I am staring at the Delam World 65 00:03:16,244 --> 00:03:17,084 Speaker 2: Bridge for half an hour. 66 00:03:17,284 --> 00:03:20,604 Speaker 1: It's it's a bunch of moments, right. It's the assassination 67 00:03:20,804 --> 00:03:24,764 Speaker 1: attempt against Trump, which the winds playing a different direction 68 00:03:24,804 --> 00:03:26,684 Speaker 1: and we're in a very different world. Right. It's the 69 00:03:26,884 --> 00:03:28,924 Speaker 1: it's the debate. It's the fact that it was only 70 00:03:28,964 --> 00:03:30,684 Speaker 1: a month ago or something that Trump was convicted I 71 00:03:30,724 --> 00:03:32,964 Speaker 1: guess more than a month ago, now, like six weeks ago, 72 00:03:32,964 --> 00:03:35,564 Speaker 1: seven weeks ago he was convicted on various felony counts. 73 00:03:36,404 --> 00:03:39,364 Speaker 1: And the fact that, like there's been this consolidation around 74 00:03:39,444 --> 00:03:43,924 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris, we may soon have the first, uh first 75 00:03:43,964 --> 00:03:48,404 Speaker 1: woman of color, everybody nominated by a major presidential ticket. Yeah, 76 00:03:48,404 --> 00:03:50,084 Speaker 1: they packed a lot. They packed a lot in here, 77 00:03:50,124 --> 00:03:53,684 Speaker 1: I think. But but putting on more of a political 78 00:03:53,724 --> 00:03:59,684 Speaker 1: science government institutional observer hat, if you were making bets 79 00:03:59,684 --> 00:04:04,204 Speaker 1: on prediction markets and we would have bought dropout stock, Matt, 80 00:04:04,204 --> 00:04:06,524 Speaker 1: can you tell me more of the thinking behind that 81 00:04:06,684 --> 00:04:09,324 Speaker 1: and kind of what this says about political parties, or 82 00:04:09,404 --> 00:04:10,564 Speaker 1: at least the Democratic Party. 83 00:04:11,044 --> 00:04:13,164 Speaker 2: Sure, I mean, I think the main thing to take 84 00:04:13,204 --> 00:04:17,124 Speaker 2: away from this is that you know, parties matter, and 85 00:04:17,164 --> 00:04:20,564 Speaker 2: that individual candidates for office, be it the president United States, 86 00:04:20,604 --> 00:04:23,604 Speaker 2: a member of Congress, someone running for the PTA, aren't 87 00:04:23,644 --> 00:04:26,044 Speaker 2: just sort of these individuals up there with authority. They 88 00:04:26,084 --> 00:04:29,124 Speaker 2: have these coalitions underneath them. And you exist because you 89 00:04:29,124 --> 00:04:32,164 Speaker 2: have a coalition of voters and interest groups and money 90 00:04:32,164 --> 00:04:34,604 Speaker 2: people and other politicians who support you. And if they 91 00:04:34,644 --> 00:04:38,084 Speaker 2: withdraw their support, right, it really collapses on you, almost 92 00:04:38,124 --> 00:04:40,284 Speaker 2: like a sand castle underneath you. And this was sort 93 00:04:40,284 --> 00:04:43,524 Speaker 2: of an open question because presidents have become so powerful 94 00:04:43,764 --> 00:04:46,004 Speaker 2: and when we think about them in terms of parties, 95 00:04:46,044 --> 00:04:47,884 Speaker 2: often we think the president controls the party. 96 00:04:48,084 --> 00:04:48,244 Speaker 1: Right. 97 00:04:48,244 --> 00:04:50,044 Speaker 2: In the nineteenth century, we knew that wasn't true. The 98 00:04:50,044 --> 00:04:51,884 Speaker 2: party was dominant. In the twentieth century it was sort 99 00:04:51,884 --> 00:04:54,444 Speaker 2: of a battle between parties and presidents. But now we think, well, 100 00:04:54,484 --> 00:04:58,924 Speaker 2: the president controls the party and he reshapes the party, right. 101 00:04:58,964 --> 00:05:00,684 Speaker 2: You see this with Clinton or with Trump, like the 102 00:05:00,684 --> 00:05:03,004 Speaker 2: party just reshapes under them. They pick the DNC heads, 103 00:05:03,124 --> 00:05:05,084 Speaker 2: they pick all the sort of the people. But when 104 00:05:05,084 --> 00:05:07,684 Speaker 2: push comes to shove, it turns out parties are still 105 00:05:07,724 --> 00:05:10,484 Speaker 2: important actor And you could see as soon as elite 106 00:05:10,564 --> 00:05:13,924 Speaker 2: actors and the populace start to withdraw their support of Biden. 107 00:05:14,084 --> 00:05:15,124 Speaker 2: It just collapsed on them. 108 00:05:15,364 --> 00:05:18,564 Speaker 1: Yeah, and Joe Biden in particular is a politician who 109 00:05:18,964 --> 00:05:21,724 Speaker 1: was dependent on the support of his party. Right, I mean, 110 00:05:21,724 --> 00:05:25,124 Speaker 1: look at think about twenty twenty was not quite like 111 00:05:25,484 --> 00:05:28,884 Speaker 1: Biden dropping out moment. But you kind of have like 112 00:05:28,924 --> 00:05:32,164 Speaker 1: the super friends get together and they flew, am I 113 00:05:32,204 --> 00:05:33,924 Speaker 1: getting this remember in this right, Like Pete Buha, Jude 114 00:05:33,964 --> 00:05:36,564 Speaker 1: and Amy Klomachar like all flew to like the same 115 00:05:36,644 --> 00:05:40,684 Speaker 1: rally to like endorse Biden after Jim Clyburn had endorsed 116 00:05:40,764 --> 00:05:44,284 Speaker 1: him in South Carolina. So this is two elections in 117 00:05:44,324 --> 00:05:48,564 Speaker 1: a row where the Democratic Party made a really strong move. 118 00:05:48,724 --> 00:05:50,964 Speaker 1: And yeah, I mean because if you read the reporting, 119 00:05:53,044 --> 00:05:55,044 Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi say we can do this the easy way 120 00:05:55,124 --> 00:06:00,124 Speaker 1: or do it the hard way. And apparently people in 121 00:06:00,164 --> 00:06:02,964 Speaker 1: his inner circle were at least willing to level with 122 00:06:03,084 --> 00:06:08,164 Speaker 1: him about about the polling being very bad about I mean, 123 00:06:08,204 --> 00:06:10,924 Speaker 1: apparently they hadn't actually done very much pulling in the 124 00:06:10,964 --> 00:06:12,884 Speaker 1: past couple of months. It's the fact that Biden hadn't 125 00:06:12,884 --> 00:06:14,684 Speaker 1: been polling the White House, had not been pulling the 126 00:06:14,684 --> 00:06:18,284 Speaker 1: swing States was probably a bad sign. But something got 127 00:06:18,284 --> 00:06:20,044 Speaker 1: through to him. But play it out what had happened. 128 00:06:20,284 --> 00:06:22,124 Speaker 1: What would the next week, Matt, do you think have 129 00:06:22,204 --> 00:06:25,084 Speaker 1: looked like if Biden remained obstinate and said I don't 130 00:06:25,084 --> 00:06:25,444 Speaker 1: want to go. 131 00:06:26,044 --> 00:06:28,324 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think they're playing this game of 132 00:06:28,404 --> 00:06:32,284 Speaker 2: chicken where it's quite obvious that the party actors want 133 00:06:32,364 --> 00:06:34,684 Speaker 2: him go on, and it's quite obvious that he is 134 00:06:34,724 --> 00:06:37,804 Speaker 2: resistant to that idea, and lurking in the background is 135 00:06:37,844 --> 00:06:39,884 Speaker 2: the idea of like, are you willing to sort of 136 00:06:39,884 --> 00:06:42,724 Speaker 2: wreck the party to get your way here? And that 137 00:06:42,764 --> 00:06:44,604 Speaker 2: made it precare us for everyone, because I think no 138 00:06:44,684 --> 00:06:48,004 Speaker 2: one sort of thought of this as a situation where 139 00:06:48,044 --> 00:06:50,244 Speaker 2: you could credibly commit to sort of the game of 140 00:06:50,324 --> 00:06:52,284 Speaker 2: chicken like we would in game theory, right, Whether the 141 00:06:52,404 --> 00:06:54,004 Speaker 2: key to the game of chicken, if two cars are 142 00:06:54,004 --> 00:06:56,324 Speaker 2: sort of heading at each other, is to just credibly 143 00:06:56,324 --> 00:06:58,364 Speaker 2: commit that you're not going to swerve, throw the steering 144 00:06:58,404 --> 00:07:00,604 Speaker 2: ro out the window, improve you can't swerve to make 145 00:07:00,644 --> 00:07:03,404 Speaker 2: their payoffs have to be better to swerve than to 146 00:07:03,484 --> 00:07:05,804 Speaker 2: keep going, and hope you swerve. You can't anymore. Now, 147 00:07:05,804 --> 00:07:06,964 Speaker 2: I think what was going to happen in the next 148 00:07:07,004 --> 00:07:08,484 Speaker 2: week was they're going to ramp up the game of 149 00:07:08,564 --> 00:07:10,924 Speaker 2: chicken to the point where maybe it was going to 150 00:07:11,004 --> 00:07:13,044 Speaker 2: hurt his chances of winning the presidency if he did 151 00:07:13,044 --> 00:07:15,404 Speaker 2: hold on. Essentially, they were going to sort of credibly 152 00:07:15,404 --> 00:07:17,364 Speaker 2: commit it to say, look, you can be the nominee 153 00:07:17,364 --> 00:07:19,124 Speaker 2: if you don't want to deal with us, but you're 154 00:07:19,124 --> 00:07:20,764 Speaker 2: going to lose the election. And that's sort of like 155 00:07:20,804 --> 00:07:23,804 Speaker 2: the extreme version, but it was headed that direction. Everyone 156 00:07:23,844 --> 00:07:25,724 Speaker 2: was circling around him, and I think the writing's on 157 00:07:25,764 --> 00:07:28,124 Speaker 2: the wall and sort of, you know, Biden then takes 158 00:07:28,164 --> 00:07:30,924 Speaker 2: the sort of obvious way out right, which is do 159 00:07:31,004 --> 00:07:33,084 Speaker 2: the quote unquote right thing for the party, which is 160 00:07:33,124 --> 00:07:34,804 Speaker 2: what it's ended up going to be presented as, like 161 00:07:34,844 --> 00:07:36,644 Speaker 2: the party is not stupid, Like the message's going to 162 00:07:36,644 --> 00:07:39,604 Speaker 2: be here, a huge celebration of Biden passing the torch, doesn't. 163 00:07:40,564 --> 00:07:42,324 Speaker 2: I can't imagine what this convention is going to look like, right, 164 00:07:42,324 --> 00:07:44,964 Speaker 2: It's gonna's a huge celebration of Biden's career and his 165 00:07:45,124 --> 00:07:47,484 Speaker 2: presidency and always accomplished. And then they're going to hand 166 00:07:47,484 --> 00:07:49,684 Speaker 2: it over to Harris and it's all going to look like, well, 167 00:07:49,684 --> 00:07:51,524 Speaker 2: Biden did this noble thing, which I don't buy for 168 00:07:51,564 --> 00:07:53,804 Speaker 2: a second. They shoved him out, and this is why 169 00:07:53,844 --> 00:07:56,244 Speaker 2: parties pass those things up. I mean, one thing I 170 00:07:56,244 --> 00:07:59,524 Speaker 2: wanted to go back to is this this idea of 171 00:07:59,524 --> 00:08:02,164 Speaker 2: how parties think people started to get worried about their 172 00:08:02,164 --> 00:08:05,564 Speaker 2: own re elections, and and that's an important piece of parties. 173 00:08:05,564 --> 00:08:07,924 Speaker 2: Their group decisions and the people in the parties have 174 00:08:08,004 --> 00:08:09,884 Speaker 2: all different goals and they don't even have to have 175 00:08:09,964 --> 00:08:12,204 Speaker 2: the same goal to arrive at the same conclusion. Like 176 00:08:12,244 --> 00:08:14,044 Speaker 2: a lot of House members and swing districts might have 177 00:08:14,084 --> 00:08:16,084 Speaker 2: start worried about their own reelection. As you point out, 178 00:08:16,284 --> 00:08:18,524 Speaker 2: party leaders or members of the House might start worried 179 00:08:18,524 --> 00:08:20,724 Speaker 2: about control of the chamber right and might be like, well, 180 00:08:20,764 --> 00:08:22,404 Speaker 2: we can lose with anyone, but let's not go down 181 00:08:22,444 --> 00:08:25,124 Speaker 2: and flames here. Let's hold onto the House. Other people 182 00:08:25,164 --> 00:08:27,644 Speaker 2: might have been concerned about policies. They might decided, well, 183 00:08:27,884 --> 00:08:30,324 Speaker 2: Biden's old and honestly Harris will be better on this issue, 184 00:08:30,364 --> 00:08:31,604 Speaker 2: or that it should have been an agenda that's more 185 00:08:31,644 --> 00:08:34,684 Speaker 2: comftabed with me. And you know, others might think Harris 186 00:08:34,724 --> 00:08:36,364 Speaker 2: just actually has a better chance, and they're worried about 187 00:08:36,364 --> 00:08:39,964 Speaker 2: controlling the presidency, and all these things come together and 188 00:08:40,284 --> 00:08:43,684 Speaker 2: ultimately like it congeals into a decision, but it's not 189 00:08:43,724 --> 00:08:46,564 Speaker 2: like everyone made this decision for the same reason within 190 00:08:46,564 --> 00:08:49,204 Speaker 2: the party. The party output spits out in some way 191 00:08:49,244 --> 00:08:51,164 Speaker 2: that you hope is rational, But it's a collection of 192 00:08:51,164 --> 00:08:53,564 Speaker 2: individuals who all thinking differently, And this isn't like a 193 00:08:53,604 --> 00:08:55,444 Speaker 2: surprise anyone, Like if you've ever been at a PTA 194 00:08:55,564 --> 00:08:57,444 Speaker 2: meeting or an HOA meeting, or just decide where to 195 00:08:57,444 --> 00:08:59,764 Speaker 2: go to dinner with your family, Like, group decisions are 196 00:08:59,764 --> 00:09:03,764 Speaker 2: not sort of like necessarily meta rational, but each individual 197 00:09:03,844 --> 00:09:06,044 Speaker 2: might be acting rational to create sort of the endpoint. 198 00:09:06,124 --> 00:09:08,604 Speaker 1: I mean, apparently, according to reporting like this was a 199 00:09:08,644 --> 00:09:12,564 Speaker 1: relatively recent decision. By the way, we have not actually 200 00:09:12,724 --> 00:09:14,324 Speaker 1: heard from Maybe by the time you listen to this 201 00:09:14,364 --> 00:09:17,324 Speaker 1: you will have right. We haven't heard from Biden directly 202 00:09:17,404 --> 00:09:21,204 Speaker 1: beyond these initial statements on Twitter and other social media networks, 203 00:09:21,204 --> 00:09:25,444 Speaker 1: which is a little bit strange, I suppose. But as 204 00:09:25,484 --> 00:09:28,004 Speaker 1: someone who has spent more time in and around the 205 00:09:28,004 --> 00:09:31,084 Speaker 1: halls of power and more time in DC and mesanity 206 00:09:31,124 --> 00:09:34,644 Speaker 1: than I have, what do you think the inner circle 207 00:09:34,684 --> 00:09:37,124 Speaker 1: of the White House was thinking? I mean, there's been 208 00:09:37,124 --> 00:09:40,684 Speaker 1: reporting that the Biden campaign was in some form of 209 00:09:40,724 --> 00:09:44,804 Speaker 1: denial about what the polls said. Do you think they 210 00:09:46,324 --> 00:09:48,644 Speaker 1: knew deep down that this wasn't working. Do you think 211 00:09:48,724 --> 00:09:50,484 Speaker 1: they were drinking the kool aid? Do you think they 212 00:09:50,484 --> 00:09:53,484 Speaker 1: felt like they had like a professional obligation to play 213 00:09:53,524 --> 00:09:56,364 Speaker 1: out the string for Biden or what I mean? 214 00:09:56,404 --> 00:10:00,444 Speaker 2: I think that it's very easy when you're a campaign 215 00:10:00,444 --> 00:10:03,964 Speaker 2: staffer or a staffer to an elected official, to talk 216 00:10:04,004 --> 00:10:07,244 Speaker 2: yourself into the reasons why they're indispensable. One thing is 217 00:10:07,284 --> 00:10:09,284 Speaker 2: that the incentives of the staffers are a little different 218 00:10:09,444 --> 00:10:13,004 Speaker 2: and the incentives of the principles in these spots. If 219 00:10:13,684 --> 00:10:16,484 Speaker 2: you know, if a staffer gives up on Biden and 220 00:10:16,524 --> 00:10:18,844 Speaker 2: says it's time to throw in the towel, they're probably 221 00:10:18,884 --> 00:10:21,924 Speaker 2: out of a job on the campaign, especially at the 222 00:10:21,964 --> 00:10:24,124 Speaker 2: top senior levels. They're probably out of our future job 223 00:10:24,124 --> 00:10:26,324 Speaker 2: in a different administration in the White House. And it 224 00:10:26,364 --> 00:10:28,324 Speaker 2: doesn't surprise me at all that the people close to 225 00:10:28,364 --> 00:10:30,004 Speaker 2: the Biden would be the people most resistant to this. 226 00:10:30,044 --> 00:10:32,364 Speaker 2: I mean, it's almost just human nature, right. This is 227 00:10:32,404 --> 00:10:34,764 Speaker 2: their guy, and of course he's going to beat Trump. 228 00:10:34,804 --> 00:10:36,804 Speaker 2: He's beat Trump in the past, and like this isn't 229 00:10:36,804 --> 00:10:39,884 Speaker 2: just talking points, Like you can actually believe this. And 230 00:10:40,004 --> 00:10:42,964 Speaker 2: I don't think it like was lost on them that 231 00:10:43,284 --> 00:10:45,804 Speaker 2: they probably don't think much or as much as other 232 00:10:45,804 --> 00:10:47,884 Speaker 2: people do, of sort of like Harris's chances. 233 00:10:48,004 --> 00:10:50,724 Speaker 1: I mean, we're gonna talk about Harris in a second, 234 00:10:50,724 --> 00:10:53,364 Speaker 1: including the complex dynamics of like why the White House 235 00:10:53,364 --> 00:10:56,604 Speaker 1: seemed to lack confidence in her. Maybe let me ask 236 00:10:57,324 --> 00:11:01,604 Speaker 1: one more question, though, Is this evidence that Democrats are 237 00:11:01,604 --> 00:11:06,324 Speaker 1: more rational than Republicans or is that not a fair conclusion. 238 00:11:06,964 --> 00:11:09,404 Speaker 2: I don't know if it's. I mean, it's certainly evident. 239 00:11:09,964 --> 00:11:13,124 Speaker 2: It's one piece of evidence that way. And I do 240 00:11:13,164 --> 00:11:16,524 Speaker 2: think sort of Trump and sort of populous like Trump 241 00:11:16,724 --> 00:11:19,364 Speaker 2: tend to produce these cults of personality. I'm proud of 242 00:11:19,364 --> 00:11:21,164 Speaker 2: them party for doing this right. This is not an 243 00:11:21,204 --> 00:11:23,764 Speaker 2: easy thing for a party to do. And if you've 244 00:11:23,804 --> 00:11:25,204 Speaker 2: ever been in a room trying to make a decision 245 00:11:25,204 --> 00:11:26,884 Speaker 2: with ten people, you can imagine how hard it is 246 00:11:26,924 --> 00:11:30,124 Speaker 2: to turn around in that decision. And so I think 247 00:11:30,124 --> 00:11:33,484 Speaker 2: they did really well here for themselves. I don't think 248 00:11:33,524 --> 00:11:36,284 Speaker 2: it says anything about them relatively Republicans, except in this 249 00:11:36,364 --> 00:11:38,644 Speaker 2: current instance. It's hard to picture Trump being pushed out 250 00:11:38,644 --> 00:11:42,404 Speaker 2: this way, but again that's Trump's a different type of leader, 251 00:11:42,444 --> 00:11:45,004 Speaker 2: a different person. If the Republicans were faced with, you know, 252 00:11:45,164 --> 00:11:47,644 Speaker 2: sort of our mirror image of Biden. I can imagine 253 00:11:47,644 --> 00:11:48,444 Speaker 2: them doing the same thing. 254 00:11:53,444 --> 00:11:55,284 Speaker 1: We're going to take a quick break. When we return, 255 00:11:55,404 --> 00:12:10,404 Speaker 1: Matt and I will talk about Kamala Harris. So, Matt, 256 00:12:11,124 --> 00:12:15,284 Speaker 1: if you go to Polymarket or other betting markets, Kamala 257 00:12:15,324 --> 00:12:17,924 Speaker 1: Harra says about an eighty three percent chance when I 258 00:12:17,924 --> 00:12:22,564 Speaker 1: looked fifteen minutes ago to be the Democratic nominee for president. 259 00:12:23,724 --> 00:12:26,604 Speaker 1: Is eighty three percent too high or too low? 260 00:12:27,444 --> 00:12:30,524 Speaker 2: I'm buying at eighty three. I think, I really think 261 00:12:30,604 --> 00:12:33,244 Speaker 2: she's at the point where what you're talking about is 262 00:12:33,244 --> 00:12:35,884 Speaker 2: sort of the three to five to seven percent whatever 263 00:12:35,924 --> 00:12:38,644 Speaker 2: it is of sort of like black swan event keeping 264 00:12:38,644 --> 00:12:40,884 Speaker 2: her from the nomination. That could be some undisclosed piece 265 00:12:40,924 --> 00:12:43,844 Speaker 2: of information, or she could be sick, knock on wood 266 00:12:43,964 --> 00:12:47,044 Speaker 2: or whatever and something go wrong. But I think she's 267 00:12:47,164 --> 00:12:50,044 Speaker 2: virtually a lock at this point. The way the Democrats 268 00:12:50,084 --> 00:12:55,044 Speaker 2: have consolidated around her is remarkable. Everybody just flew out 269 00:12:55,084 --> 00:12:57,524 Speaker 2: from across the spectrum. You had the CBC, you had 270 00:12:57,604 --> 00:13:00,724 Speaker 2: various House and Senate members, you had her opponents, and 271 00:13:01,604 --> 00:13:03,644 Speaker 2: basically what they did was they said, you know, this 272 00:13:03,724 --> 00:13:05,764 Speaker 2: is a done deal. What those endorsements mean. Starting with 273 00:13:05,804 --> 00:13:09,364 Speaker 2: the President and then it keeps any sort of potential challenge. 274 00:13:09,684 --> 00:13:12,044 Speaker 2: And now I see every possible challenger to her has 275 00:13:12,084 --> 00:13:15,044 Speaker 2: basically endorsed her, So the field has been cleared. 276 00:13:15,244 --> 00:13:17,684 Speaker 1: Yeah, do you think this just like guaranteed to happen 277 00:13:17,684 --> 00:13:19,364 Speaker 1: and we're just discovering that now, or do you think 278 00:13:19,364 --> 00:13:23,764 Speaker 1: it's a situation where like it's kind of an unstable equilibrium. 279 00:13:23,964 --> 00:13:27,564 Speaker 1: Once the herd starts to move one way, then the 280 00:13:27,604 --> 00:13:30,484 Speaker 1: outcome becomes inevitable. Therefore you want to jump on the bandwagon. 281 00:13:30,524 --> 00:13:34,444 Speaker 1: How many metaphors am I mixing here? But like, do 282 00:13:34,484 --> 00:13:36,524 Speaker 1: you think there's a world in which this doesn't happen 283 00:13:36,644 --> 00:13:38,644 Speaker 1: that's adjacent to the actual world that we live in? 284 00:13:40,404 --> 00:13:44,484 Speaker 2: Only if sort of she thought that her stepping aside 285 00:13:44,484 --> 00:13:47,284 Speaker 2: would help the party too in some sort of altruistic way. 286 00:13:47,524 --> 00:13:50,484 Speaker 2: I think the issue here is that the big danger 287 00:13:50,524 --> 00:13:52,444 Speaker 2: for the party in Biden stepping aside was that they 288 00:13:52,484 --> 00:13:54,444 Speaker 2: weren't gonna be able to put the coalition back together, 289 00:13:54,684 --> 00:13:57,404 Speaker 2: like the big Coalition was going to crack, and that 290 00:13:57,484 --> 00:13:59,084 Speaker 2: it was never gonna be able to clean up by anyone, 291 00:13:59,124 --> 00:14:01,404 Speaker 2: And you're gonna have people who were bitter and vindictive 292 00:14:01,444 --> 00:14:05,004 Speaker 2: about what happened and looks like they've minimized that. But 293 00:14:05,564 --> 00:14:08,484 Speaker 2: passing over her would have been the most obvious way 294 00:14:08,524 --> 00:14:10,564 Speaker 2: to create that sity situation where you're not gonna be 295 00:14:10,564 --> 00:14:13,564 Speaker 2: able to put the coalition back together for any number 296 00:14:13,564 --> 00:14:15,884 Speaker 2: of reasons. Her and her people directly sort of the 297 00:14:15,884 --> 00:14:18,924 Speaker 2: people who support her interests, sort of a script of 298 00:14:18,924 --> 00:14:21,684 Speaker 2: representation groups if you anger sort of African Americans and 299 00:14:21,764 --> 00:14:24,284 Speaker 2: you skip over her for you know, Whitmer or whatever. 300 00:14:24,804 --> 00:14:26,924 Speaker 2: And so I think this was the most obvious way 301 00:14:26,964 --> 00:14:30,884 Speaker 2: to go it least party tension and best chance to 302 00:14:30,924 --> 00:14:33,084 Speaker 2: make sure the coalition comes back together, which there is 303 00:14:33,084 --> 00:14:35,724 Speaker 2: no guarantee anyway, Like there's still that one group that 304 00:14:35,764 --> 00:14:38,124 Speaker 2: you worry about, which is sort of like the hardcore 305 00:14:38,204 --> 00:14:40,924 Speaker 2: inner circle. Biden Knight's not playing nice and I don't 306 00:14:40,924 --> 00:14:43,364 Speaker 2: think that's gonna happen, but they're still sort of out there. 307 00:14:44,124 --> 00:14:46,524 Speaker 2: The advance for Harris in terms of information reveal over 308 00:14:46,564 --> 00:14:48,604 Speaker 2: any other candidate is also there. She's been vetted in 309 00:14:48,644 --> 00:14:52,084 Speaker 2: a national election before, which is not nothing. If we 310 00:14:52,124 --> 00:14:54,724 Speaker 2: had gone with Whitmer, like great year governor of state, 311 00:14:54,924 --> 00:14:57,444 Speaker 2: We've seen plenty of governors of states have stuff revealed 312 00:14:57,444 --> 00:15:01,124 Speaker 2: about them in national elections and national primaries that cause 313 00:15:01,204 --> 00:15:03,404 Speaker 2: problems from a vetting point of view, and so she's 314 00:15:03,684 --> 00:15:06,764 Speaker 2: a safe candidate in that sense. But the most important 315 00:15:06,764 --> 00:15:08,404 Speaker 2: thing is that she's the vice president of United States. 316 00:15:08,484 --> 00:15:10,764 Speaker 2: She's the obvious there parent. Biden picked her to be 317 00:15:10,804 --> 00:15:13,204 Speaker 2: second in command, and now you're stepping aside. You better 318 00:15:13,204 --> 00:15:14,924 Speaker 2: come up with a damn good reason to pass over 319 00:15:14,964 --> 00:15:16,484 Speaker 2: her if you want to keep party harmony. 320 00:15:17,004 --> 00:15:18,804 Speaker 1: And probably the way it could have been done would 321 00:15:18,844 --> 00:15:20,804 Speaker 1: be to have this kind of mini primary where you 322 00:15:20,804 --> 00:15:25,844 Speaker 1: have somehow public forums voter participation like that might have 323 00:15:25,884 --> 00:15:27,644 Speaker 1: been tenable, But it also seemed like not very many 324 00:15:27,684 --> 00:15:30,284 Speaker 1: of the people were that interested in the job because 325 00:15:30,364 --> 00:15:33,884 Speaker 1: Joe Biden has been wobbling for how w was debate 326 00:15:33,924 --> 00:15:37,244 Speaker 1: almost a month ago now right. If you were Gavin 327 00:15:37,324 --> 00:15:41,884 Speaker 1: Newsome and you were really interested in the nomination, I mean, 328 00:15:41,924 --> 00:15:45,204 Speaker 1: you would probably have floated something sooner or like tried 329 00:15:45,244 --> 00:15:47,044 Speaker 1: to start some momentum running and there was like no 330 00:15:47,084 --> 00:15:50,204 Speaker 1: other obvious alternative. But like, but look, let me ask 331 00:15:50,244 --> 00:15:56,004 Speaker 1: you this, based on reporting, the White House itself is 332 00:15:56,044 --> 00:16:01,364 Speaker 1: not that confident about Kamala Harris's chances against Trump. She 333 00:16:01,804 --> 00:16:05,804 Speaker 1: is down in the polls currently against Trump. That might change. 334 00:16:05,844 --> 00:16:07,964 Speaker 1: Poles sometimes change when you go from being a hypothetical 335 00:16:08,004 --> 00:16:10,724 Speaker 1: to an actual candidate. But but for the time being, 336 00:16:10,724 --> 00:16:14,364 Speaker 1: her polling looks maybe a point better than Biden's. But 337 00:16:14,404 --> 00:16:17,484 Speaker 1: Biden's polling was pretty bad, so that's not saying very much. 338 00:16:19,004 --> 00:16:21,084 Speaker 1: Why would a can who we've just been were a 339 00:16:21,084 --> 00:16:25,004 Speaker 1: party rather who we've just been praising for being hyper rational? 340 00:16:26,644 --> 00:16:31,324 Speaker 1: Why would they worry about not wanting to offend X 341 00:16:31,404 --> 00:16:34,524 Speaker 1: or Y in group or outgroup if they can increase 342 00:16:34,564 --> 00:16:37,964 Speaker 1: their chances of beating Trump from say thirty five percent, 343 00:16:38,004 --> 00:16:40,244 Speaker 1: which is roughly what prediction markets assumed about hair As 344 00:16:40,324 --> 00:16:43,644 Speaker 1: to like fifty or fifty five percent with the hypothetical 345 00:16:43,724 --> 00:16:47,604 Speaker 1: perfect you know, Gretchen Whitmer, I don't know who else 346 00:16:47,644 --> 00:16:48,804 Speaker 1: ticket I've. 347 00:16:48,684 --> 00:16:50,764 Speaker 2: Put Whitmer and Shapiro on a ticket and just be like, well, 348 00:16:50,804 --> 00:16:53,524 Speaker 2: now we're coming after Michigan and Pennsylvania, that kind of thing. 349 00:16:53,924 --> 00:16:54,324 Speaker 1: I think. 350 00:16:54,644 --> 00:16:57,924 Speaker 2: I think that the parties are probably a little too 351 00:16:58,004 --> 00:17:01,164 Speaker 2: risk averse in situations like this, but the fear of 352 00:17:01,404 --> 00:17:05,804 Speaker 2: party crack up always looms over any sort of coalition, 353 00:17:06,884 --> 00:17:10,084 Speaker 2: and I think they thought that, you know, if we're 354 00:17:10,124 --> 00:17:13,084 Speaker 2: pushing Biden out because he's too old and he can't 355 00:17:13,084 --> 00:17:16,364 Speaker 2: do this anymore. Then we're not saying he ran a 356 00:17:16,364 --> 00:17:18,604 Speaker 2: bad administration. We're not saying there's any wrong with the administration. 357 00:17:18,644 --> 00:17:20,804 Speaker 2: There's not anything wrong with his record. And so what 358 00:17:20,924 --> 00:17:24,684 Speaker 2: is your reasoning for going around Harris except that you're saying, oh, well, 359 00:17:24,724 --> 00:17:28,324 Speaker 2: other people pull better. Maybe maybe they do. But again, 360 00:17:28,364 --> 00:17:30,764 Speaker 2: I think the party crack up aspect of this looms 361 00:17:30,764 --> 00:17:33,004 Speaker 2: so large, and I think the only way to get 362 00:17:33,044 --> 00:17:35,684 Speaker 2: around Harris was to have that open competition. And I 363 00:17:35,684 --> 00:17:38,444 Speaker 2: don't think the party wanted an open competition. I don't 364 00:17:38,484 --> 00:17:41,484 Speaker 2: think parties ever want that situation, right, because that is 365 00:17:41,484 --> 00:17:44,684 Speaker 2: what creates sort of bad blood. And what happens if 366 00:17:44,684 --> 00:17:46,644 Speaker 2: you end up in a situation where an open competition 367 00:17:46,964 --> 00:17:49,444 Speaker 2: and you have a narrow victory, right, where does that 368 00:17:49,524 --> 00:17:52,084 Speaker 2: leave everybody? What does that clean up? You're just asking 369 00:17:52,084 --> 00:17:55,084 Speaker 2: people to back the party, and I think this is 370 00:17:55,364 --> 00:17:57,604 Speaker 2: sort of the safest route. 371 00:17:57,644 --> 00:17:57,844 Speaker 1: Right. 372 00:17:57,884 --> 00:17:59,924 Speaker 2: Again, there's a variance issue here. They may be thinking 373 00:17:59,924 --> 00:18:03,084 Speaker 2: about variance incorrectly. They may need variants right now. I 374 00:18:03,084 --> 00:18:04,644 Speaker 2: think that's the point you've made in the past. But 375 00:18:04,724 --> 00:18:07,124 Speaker 2: there's a huge variance issue. And if you're thinking about 376 00:18:07,204 --> 00:18:10,364 Speaker 2: protecting the House representatives, for instance, and your best chance 377 00:18:10,404 --> 00:18:12,404 Speaker 2: to take control of the House all of a sudden 378 00:18:12,604 --> 00:18:15,764 Speaker 2: losing with Harris keeping the coalition intact, It's not the 379 00:18:15,804 --> 00:18:17,244 Speaker 2: worst thing in the world. We know where we'll get. 380 00:18:17,684 --> 00:18:20,124 Speaker 2: It won't be the disaster of old man Biden, like 381 00:18:20,164 --> 00:18:22,084 Speaker 2: falling asleep on the campaign trail sometime in the next 382 00:18:22,084 --> 00:18:23,684 Speaker 2: two months. I mean, that was the real disaster that 383 00:18:23,764 --> 00:18:26,644 Speaker 2: was looming, is that Biden would completely self destruct in 384 00:18:26,684 --> 00:18:29,884 Speaker 2: October and the entire Democratic Party were from crashing down 385 00:18:29,884 --> 00:18:33,204 Speaker 2: with him. That won't happen with Harris to lose. Maybe 386 00:18:33,204 --> 00:18:35,364 Speaker 2: she's a bad candidate, right or whatever reason, Like she 387 00:18:35,364 --> 00:18:37,964 Speaker 2: doesn't do well. Trump wins, but it doesn't feel like 388 00:18:38,804 --> 00:18:41,164 Speaker 2: she's gonna go out there and just bring the Democratic 389 00:18:41,204 --> 00:18:44,204 Speaker 2: Party down with her, and the crackup could cause that. 390 00:18:44,284 --> 00:18:47,204 Speaker 2: Now again, you may be looking for variants. You may 391 00:18:47,204 --> 00:18:50,724 Speaker 2: be looking for Josh Shapiro to shake things up, or 392 00:18:50,764 --> 00:18:53,444 Speaker 2: Gretchen Whitmer. I think Whitmer is probably the only other 393 00:18:53,524 --> 00:18:57,244 Speaker 2: realistic option. The Democrat Party is a collection of interest in. 394 00:18:57,244 --> 00:18:59,244 Speaker 2: One of those interests is that we have wide representation 395 00:18:59,404 --> 00:19:02,044 Speaker 2: of both mind maority groups and women, and to pass 396 00:19:02,084 --> 00:19:04,924 Speaker 2: over to Harris and then pass over Whitmer and be like, oh, look, dude, 397 00:19:04,924 --> 00:19:07,244 Speaker 2: we got this white guy in Pennsylvania. It's gonna be perfect. 398 00:19:07,404 --> 00:19:09,484 Speaker 2: I think that would have caused enough tension in the part. 399 00:19:14,044 --> 00:19:16,164 Speaker 1: Right. I think came the closest anyone actually saying he 400 00:19:16,244 --> 00:19:18,404 Speaker 1: wanted it. It's like the Biden campaign was, like, among 401 00:19:18,444 --> 00:19:23,684 Speaker 1: other things, for Democrats, extremely demoralizing, where every day you 402 00:19:23,724 --> 00:19:26,604 Speaker 1: wake up and there are these polls showing Biden losing 403 00:19:27,204 --> 00:19:29,564 Speaker 1: and he's either not giving public remarks or when he 404 00:19:29,604 --> 00:19:32,404 Speaker 1: does it's embarrassing half the time. It was very disheartening 405 00:19:32,444 --> 00:19:34,844 Speaker 1: for Democrats. And I think just having like the semblance 406 00:19:34,884 --> 00:19:38,284 Speaker 1: of a normal campaign I think is a potent lever 407 00:19:38,484 --> 00:19:42,844 Speaker 1: for Harris and for Democrats here. I mean, do you 408 00:19:42,844 --> 00:19:46,364 Speaker 1: think they'll come to regret not having a mini primary 409 00:19:46,524 --> 00:19:48,444 Speaker 1: or is it like it just wasn't going to fly, 410 00:19:49,164 --> 00:19:52,564 Speaker 1: and once it's not going to fly, then it's better 411 00:19:52,684 --> 00:19:54,204 Speaker 1: to be unified than not. 412 00:19:54,844 --> 00:19:57,924 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think largely allowed to Look, you know, 413 00:19:58,124 --> 00:20:01,044 Speaker 2: when Harris loses, we're gonna hear every sort of idiotic 414 00:20:01,084 --> 00:20:04,244 Speaker 2: take we can about this decision because the results oriented 415 00:20:04,324 --> 00:20:06,084 Speaker 2: thinking it's going to come back of this, So like oh, 416 00:20:06,124 --> 00:20:09,124 Speaker 2: Biden could have won, right, Whitmer could have won. All 417 00:20:09,164 --> 00:20:11,044 Speaker 2: of the things are going to come out, and of 418 00:20:11,084 --> 00:20:13,204 Speaker 2: course that's you know, as a poker a bridge player 419 00:20:13,324 --> 00:20:15,404 Speaker 2: would say that that's ridiculous. Right. You make the decision 420 00:20:15,404 --> 00:20:17,164 Speaker 2: with the best information you have and sort of whatever 421 00:20:17,204 --> 00:20:20,404 Speaker 2: happens with the rolls of the dice you can't control. 422 00:20:21,044 --> 00:20:25,884 Speaker 2: I do think that you know one thing going with 423 00:20:25,964 --> 00:20:29,204 Speaker 2: Harris now, does is it? Lets sort of the sort 424 00:20:29,244 --> 00:20:32,524 Speaker 2: of the thing move forward quicker. Right. We saw this 425 00:20:32,684 --> 00:20:35,204 Speaker 2: massive fundraising haul for the Democrats yesterday, right, and this 426 00:20:35,324 --> 00:20:37,404 Speaker 2: wave of sort of popular enthusiasm and who knows how 427 00:20:37,444 --> 00:20:39,324 Speaker 2: on in this last But if you say, oh, we're 428 00:20:39,364 --> 00:20:41,284 Speaker 2: going to set up a process now for the next 429 00:20:41,284 --> 00:20:42,844 Speaker 2: two weeks, people are going to bicker with each other 430 00:20:42,844 --> 00:20:44,684 Speaker 2: about who should be their nominee, and then at the 431 00:20:44,724 --> 00:20:47,444 Speaker 2: convention in August, we'll deal with this. You're waiting a 432 00:20:47,524 --> 00:20:49,804 Speaker 2: long time to sort of get to that point, and 433 00:20:49,844 --> 00:20:52,164 Speaker 2: I think that the time running short aspect of this 434 00:20:52,644 --> 00:20:55,404 Speaker 2: shouldn't be underestimated. You know, either we have Harris coming 435 00:20:55,444 --> 00:20:57,604 Speaker 2: in now and she's gonna be the candidate today. There's 436 00:20:57,644 --> 00:21:01,244 Speaker 2: logistical issues transferring her the money from from the Biden 437 00:21:01,284 --> 00:21:03,724 Speaker 2: campaign was easier than anyone else. And so there's all 438 00:21:03,764 --> 00:21:06,004 Speaker 2: these things sort of build up for different people, I think, 439 00:21:06,204 --> 00:21:07,724 Speaker 2: and you get to the point where it's like, well, 440 00:21:07,924 --> 00:21:09,724 Speaker 2: does Whitmer even want to run for president? 441 00:21:09,804 --> 00:21:10,124 Speaker 1: Right now? 442 00:21:10,524 --> 00:21:12,724 Speaker 2: Right? That's the other question hiding behind all this is, 443 00:21:12,764 --> 00:21:14,724 Speaker 2: like all these candidates they backed the way real quick. 444 00:21:14,804 --> 00:21:17,004 Speaker 2: When they decide to coordinate on Harris, a lot of 445 00:21:17,044 --> 00:21:18,724 Speaker 2: them might not have been interested anyway. So we're gonna 446 00:21:18,724 --> 00:21:20,844 Speaker 2: hold them any primary who's going to show up? Right, 447 00:21:21,644 --> 00:21:24,364 Speaker 2: Harris will show up, probably maybe a couple of themill 448 00:21:24,364 --> 00:21:25,604 Speaker 2: show up, but as soon as a couple of other 449 00:21:25,644 --> 00:21:27,044 Speaker 2: show up, the rest are going to drop out. Like, 450 00:21:27,084 --> 00:21:29,004 Speaker 2: it's not clearly what a many primary would've even look 451 00:21:29,164 --> 00:21:31,564 Speaker 2: like in terms of which candidates want to get in 452 00:21:31,604 --> 00:21:33,964 Speaker 2: one hundred days before the election to try and get 453 00:21:34,004 --> 00:21:36,484 Speaker 2: the Democratic nomination in a precarious situation where they're going 454 00:21:36,524 --> 00:21:38,084 Speaker 2: to be an underdog. 455 00:21:39,684 --> 00:21:46,124 Speaker 1: How seamless is a transition between Biden and Harris? Are 456 00:21:46,244 --> 00:21:48,684 Speaker 1: like all the Biden people like running her campaign? Now 457 00:21:49,244 --> 00:21:51,524 Speaker 1: will she want to replace them with her own staff? 458 00:21:51,564 --> 00:21:54,284 Speaker 1: There is lots of talk about, by the way, internal 459 00:21:54,324 --> 00:21:58,844 Speaker 1: tension between the Biden staff and the Harris staff. How 460 00:21:58,844 --> 00:22:00,564 Speaker 1: does that actually like physically work. 461 00:22:01,604 --> 00:22:04,964 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is a huge issue because you know, 462 00:22:05,404 --> 00:22:10,524 Speaker 2: the campaign staff are notoriously sort of territorial, and even 463 00:22:10,604 --> 00:22:13,364 Speaker 2: on campaigns that are sort of normal and get started 464 00:22:13,364 --> 00:22:15,684 Speaker 2: in the primaries and roll forward, you have internal tensions 465 00:22:15,724 --> 00:22:19,604 Speaker 2: between different staffers on the campaign, you know, and you know, 466 00:22:19,644 --> 00:22:22,964 Speaker 2: whether the campaign manager gets along with the candidate's spouse 467 00:22:23,004 --> 00:22:25,564 Speaker 2: is always sort of like a classic crack up in Congress, right, 468 00:22:25,724 --> 00:22:27,764 Speaker 2: And all of these things now have to sort of 469 00:22:27,764 --> 00:22:32,124 Speaker 2: be dealt with in faster than normal real time for politics. 470 00:22:32,284 --> 00:22:34,644 Speaker 2: I think I saw that the Biden staffers from the 471 00:22:34,684 --> 00:22:37,084 Speaker 2: campaign said they were all going to you know, flip 472 00:22:37,124 --> 00:22:39,564 Speaker 2: over and help Harris for now, right, And that seems 473 00:22:39,604 --> 00:22:42,084 Speaker 2: sort of normal. But I don't think you know that 474 00:22:42,244 --> 00:22:46,204 Speaker 2: the Biden campaign is the set of staffers, the set 475 00:22:46,244 --> 00:22:49,364 Speaker 2: of strategies, the set of money people, and the set 476 00:22:49,364 --> 00:22:51,524 Speaker 2: of get out the vote operations that Harris would have 477 00:22:51,564 --> 00:22:53,364 Speaker 2: set up had she just won the primary right now, 478 00:22:53,404 --> 00:22:55,084 Speaker 2: and sort of an opens thing Biden said, I'm not 479 00:22:55,084 --> 00:22:56,924 Speaker 2: going to run Harrison's the primary. She would have set 480 00:22:56,964 --> 00:23:00,164 Speaker 2: up an entirely different apparatus, and so the friction there 481 00:23:00,244 --> 00:23:02,804 Speaker 2: is real and I think there's no doubt she's going 482 00:23:02,884 --> 00:23:04,964 Speaker 2: to change some of the people, particularly the top, the 483 00:23:04,964 --> 00:23:07,364 Speaker 2: senior levels or the places where you know, probably the 484 00:23:07,404 --> 00:23:10,204 Speaker 2: biggest change will happen. But just sort of she is 485 00:23:10,244 --> 00:23:13,364 Speaker 2: going to be forced to run, at least for a while, 486 00:23:13,444 --> 00:23:16,324 Speaker 2: on an apparatus that she didn't build and she didn't direct, 487 00:23:16,324 --> 00:23:18,324 Speaker 2: and her people and people she's comforted with and her 488 00:23:18,364 --> 00:23:21,004 Speaker 2: allies didn't build and direct. And that's a challenge. It's 489 00:23:21,044 --> 00:23:23,404 Speaker 2: not insurmountable, but it certainly is different than what she 490 00:23:23,444 --> 00:23:26,484 Speaker 2: would have done otherwise. And I suspect we're going to 491 00:23:26,524 --> 00:23:30,164 Speaker 2: have a lot of changes in the campaigns and even 492 00:23:30,204 --> 00:23:33,444 Speaker 2: right down to sort of you know, the surrogates that 493 00:23:33,484 --> 00:23:36,604 Speaker 2: they use for on television, on cable news and here, 494 00:23:36,644 --> 00:23:37,884 Speaker 2: and there are going to be a different set of 495 00:23:37,884 --> 00:23:41,964 Speaker 2: people surrounding you know, Kamala Harris the coalition than Joe 496 00:23:41,964 --> 00:23:44,844 Speaker 2: Biden the coalition. Right, they're linked together, but they are 497 00:23:44,884 --> 00:23:45,844 Speaker 2: different coalitions. 498 00:23:51,724 --> 00:23:53,644 Speaker 1: We're going to take one more break here and then 499 00:23:53,684 --> 00:23:55,764 Speaker 1: be back to talk a little bit about Kamala Harris's 500 00:23:55,764 --> 00:23:57,764 Speaker 1: odds and what we have to look forward to between 501 00:23:57,884 --> 00:24:12,204 Speaker 1: now and November. So, if you go to prediction markets, 502 00:24:12,244 --> 00:24:13,684 Speaker 1: I know, we're spending a lot of time on them, 503 00:24:13,684 --> 00:24:15,884 Speaker 1: but it's a time when there's a lot of uncertainty, 504 00:24:16,204 --> 00:24:20,124 Speaker 1: there's not really enough polling. Yet they basically imply that 505 00:24:20,204 --> 00:24:23,004 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris has about a thirty five percent chance of 506 00:24:23,804 --> 00:24:27,284 Speaker 1: beating Trump conditional upon winning the nomination, which we both 507 00:24:27,324 --> 00:24:32,884 Speaker 1: expect her to do. Interestingly, in my model, thirty five 508 00:24:32,924 --> 00:24:36,244 Speaker 1: percent was a chance that Biden had before the debate. 509 00:24:36,364 --> 00:24:40,164 Speaker 1: So in some ways you're resetting to the pre debate 510 00:24:40,204 --> 00:24:42,204 Speaker 1: moment where we thought Joe Biden would run, or maybe 511 00:24:42,204 --> 00:24:44,524 Speaker 1: Matt and I didn't think that, but most people assume 512 00:24:44,564 --> 00:24:47,164 Speaker 1: that Joe Biden would run kind of this normal democratic 513 00:24:47,204 --> 00:24:51,804 Speaker 1: campaign under slightly difficult circumstances. You know, I asked you 514 00:24:51,844 --> 00:24:54,444 Speaker 1: to buy or sell before on Harris's nomination chances. Do 515 00:24:54,484 --> 00:24:57,644 Speaker 1: you think thirty five percent is in the right general 516 00:24:57,724 --> 00:25:00,404 Speaker 1: vicinity or do you want to kind of wait for 517 00:25:00,444 --> 00:25:02,244 Speaker 1: more info before you make an assessment. 518 00:25:02,924 --> 00:25:05,484 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not buying or selling for more info because 519 00:25:05,524 --> 00:25:07,364 Speaker 2: I think the key question we have here, and I 520 00:25:07,364 --> 00:25:10,524 Speaker 2: think this is kind of funny actually, is thatocrats need 521 00:25:10,604 --> 00:25:13,684 Speaker 2: to really hope the problem was Biden's age, right, Like 522 00:25:13,804 --> 00:25:17,044 Speaker 2: if the problem was Biden's age and not inflation and 523 00:25:17,084 --> 00:25:20,924 Speaker 2: not sort of the policy's administration. Right, then you're looking great, right, 524 00:25:20,924 --> 00:25:24,044 Speaker 2: like relatively speaking, right, And so I would like to 525 00:25:24,124 --> 00:25:25,404 Speaker 2: wait because I think the Polley is going to be 526 00:25:25,444 --> 00:25:28,964 Speaker 2: really important. And obviously, like I am the total layman here, 527 00:25:28,964 --> 00:25:32,484 Speaker 2: you're the expert, but in the coming weeks about whether 528 00:25:32,724 --> 00:25:35,924 Speaker 2: sort of that is an explanation and if Harris instantly 529 00:25:35,964 --> 00:25:38,404 Speaker 2: has sort of like a exogenous shock of you know, 530 00:25:38,724 --> 00:25:41,844 Speaker 2: three or four or five points relative to Biden a 531 00:25:41,924 --> 00:25:44,284 Speaker 2: relative to where she was before, that's a big deal. 532 00:25:45,324 --> 00:25:47,444 Speaker 2: And you know, well, you know, people won't be able 533 00:25:47,484 --> 00:25:49,684 Speaker 2: to figure that out definitively. But if you see a 534 00:25:49,764 --> 00:25:52,004 Speaker 2: jump for her, then maybe the Biden old thing was 535 00:25:52,044 --> 00:25:54,724 Speaker 2: really dragging down a set of Democrats or a set 536 00:25:54,764 --> 00:25:56,804 Speaker 2: of swing voters right, who are now like much more 537 00:25:56,844 --> 00:25:58,724 Speaker 2: comfortable coming back to Harris. Now, I don't know if 538 00:25:58,764 --> 00:26:01,044 Speaker 2: that's true, and she's got her own negatives, but I 539 00:26:01,044 --> 00:26:04,164 Speaker 2: am definitely in wait and see mode. I certainly think 540 00:26:04,324 --> 00:26:06,364 Speaker 2: the Democrats who all of a sudden think they have 541 00:26:06,404 --> 00:26:10,404 Speaker 2: the answer are crazy. I think it is complete nonsense 542 00:26:10,444 --> 00:26:12,484 Speaker 2: to be like, oh, now we've solved this and now 543 00:26:12,484 --> 00:26:15,204 Speaker 2: we're favorites to win this. I can't even imagine that. 544 00:26:16,444 --> 00:26:20,204 Speaker 2: And you know, and they have a long road ahead 545 00:26:20,284 --> 00:26:24,404 Speaker 2: uphill with in my view, a less than perfect candidate, 546 00:26:24,684 --> 00:26:27,804 Speaker 2: but someone that's improved their situation from where they were, 547 00:26:28,284 --> 00:26:30,044 Speaker 2: at least on the extreme margin. 548 00:26:30,324 --> 00:26:32,164 Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't know what the poker analogy is, but 549 00:26:32,204 --> 00:26:34,564 Speaker 1: maybe it's like that you hit like a hit, like 550 00:26:34,644 --> 00:26:37,324 Speaker 1: a four outer, like chop the pot. This is getting 551 00:26:37,404 --> 00:26:40,244 Speaker 1: very esoteric, right, but like you find some way to 552 00:26:40,324 --> 00:26:42,684 Speaker 1: like salvage be able to continue gambling. And if you 553 00:26:42,724 --> 00:26:47,924 Speaker 1: kind of read read accounts of like gambling addicts, then 554 00:26:47,964 --> 00:26:50,044 Speaker 1: not that democratsic gamle adics are probably too risk averse 555 00:26:50,044 --> 00:26:53,844 Speaker 1: on average. They just want to win to continue to play, right, 556 00:26:53,884 --> 00:26:56,644 Speaker 1: not winning for winning's sake, but winning winning to play 557 00:26:56,684 --> 00:26:58,964 Speaker 1: and like they're and they're in the game now at least. 558 00:26:58,964 --> 00:27:02,084 Speaker 1: But yeah, look, it's ironic that like you would get 559 00:27:02,164 --> 00:27:05,284 Speaker 1: yelled at for suggesting that Biden's age is the problem, 560 00:27:05,364 --> 00:27:08,204 Speaker 1: because there are other issues too. I mean, incumbent parties 561 00:27:08,204 --> 00:27:14,164 Speaker 1: all around the world have have been struggling. You know. Look, 562 00:27:14,204 --> 00:27:17,004 Speaker 1: one thing that I think goes too often overlooked is 563 00:27:17,044 --> 00:27:21,284 Speaker 1: that Democrats are still at a disadvantage in the electoral College. 564 00:27:21,724 --> 00:27:24,404 Speaker 1: If anything, Biden's disadvantage might have narrowed a little bit 565 00:27:24,444 --> 00:27:27,924 Speaker 1: because he was doing well. I wasn't doing better among anyone, right, 566 00:27:28,004 --> 00:27:30,764 Speaker 1: but he was holding his numbers up better relatively speaking, 567 00:27:31,204 --> 00:27:34,564 Speaker 1: with like older white voters versus any voters of color 568 00:27:34,724 --> 00:27:39,364 Speaker 1: and any younger voters. So older states like Michigan, Pennsylvania 569 00:27:39,364 --> 00:27:43,844 Speaker 1: that are pretty white Wisconsin were holding up comparatively well 570 00:27:44,004 --> 00:27:48,524 Speaker 1: versus Georgia, for instance. Harris may do better overall. I 571 00:27:48,604 --> 00:27:52,004 Speaker 1: think she probably will, but she may actually expand back 572 00:27:52,044 --> 00:27:57,004 Speaker 1: out that electoral college popular vote gap, and that's tricky. 573 00:27:57,044 --> 00:27:58,564 Speaker 1: I mean, you might bet she might be the favorite 574 00:27:58,564 --> 00:28:01,404 Speaker 1: to win the popular vote. I don't know if she's 575 00:28:01,444 --> 00:28:04,124 Speaker 1: the favorite to win the electoral college, unfortunately for Democrats. 576 00:28:04,844 --> 00:28:12,004 Speaker 1: But let's give let's give, like a more optimistic version 577 00:28:12,084 --> 00:28:14,844 Speaker 1: of it. It's November sixth, and Kamala Harris has one, 578 00:28:15,444 --> 00:28:18,724 Speaker 1: let's say, by a compable enough margin where we're not 579 00:28:18,764 --> 00:28:20,684 Speaker 1: still counting. The vote wasn't huge, but she won the 580 00:28:20,724 --> 00:28:23,284 Speaker 1: popular vote by three points, and she won the Midwestern states, 581 00:28:23,284 --> 00:28:28,684 Speaker 1: and say Nevada or something, tell me the story where 582 00:28:28,724 --> 00:28:29,244 Speaker 1: this happened. 583 00:28:30,084 --> 00:28:32,444 Speaker 2: I think the story where this happens is the Democratic 584 00:28:32,444 --> 00:28:35,004 Speaker 2: Party unites behind her. Of course, that's a baseline must 585 00:28:35,044 --> 00:28:38,724 Speaker 2: have her campaign gets off the ground without any sort 586 00:28:38,724 --> 00:28:41,364 Speaker 2: of sputtering, which we could see. She turns out to 587 00:28:41,444 --> 00:28:46,604 Speaker 2: be something of a better campaigner slash candidate slash charismatic 588 00:28:46,724 --> 00:28:51,564 Speaker 2: leader than we observed in the primaries. She probably moderates 589 00:28:51,564 --> 00:28:53,884 Speaker 2: her position successfully. I think this is gonna be the 590 00:28:53,924 --> 00:28:56,204 Speaker 2: tough one for the Democrats to swallow, is that she 591 00:28:56,364 --> 00:29:00,204 Speaker 2: really needs to move to the center from where she's been. 592 00:29:00,284 --> 00:29:03,724 Speaker 2: She's grown up her entire career in politics and sort 593 00:29:03,764 --> 00:29:06,844 Speaker 2: of the liberal sort of bastions and running up through 594 00:29:06,844 --> 00:29:10,124 Speaker 2: California's system is like that proves some thing, like you're 595 00:29:10,164 --> 00:29:12,564 Speaker 2: you're good at something, but it doesn't really challenge you 596 00:29:12,644 --> 00:29:15,764 Speaker 2: to look for sort of swing voters nationally, and so 597 00:29:15,804 --> 00:29:17,364 Speaker 2: she'll have to sort of figure out how to do that, 598 00:29:17,604 --> 00:29:20,284 Speaker 2: and then I think after that the Biden age thing 599 00:29:20,324 --> 00:29:23,564 Speaker 2: will have had to be sort of important, and then 600 00:29:23,604 --> 00:29:27,324 Speaker 2: she will successfully, in my view, present a campaign that 601 00:29:27,524 --> 00:29:30,204 Speaker 2: is forward looking versus backward looking. And I think that's 602 00:29:30,204 --> 00:29:32,684 Speaker 2: the one thing she has going for her, is that 603 00:29:32,844 --> 00:29:35,724 Speaker 2: if she wants to push this campaign into like Donald 604 00:29:35,764 --> 00:29:38,684 Speaker 2: Trump's the past and I represent the future. That's a 605 00:29:38,804 --> 00:29:41,964 Speaker 2: very strong sell in America, and it will be a 606 00:29:42,004 --> 00:29:44,884 Speaker 2: contrast that might sort of pick her up the swing 607 00:29:44,964 --> 00:29:47,084 Speaker 2: voters who have decided that not was Biden too old, 608 00:29:47,204 --> 00:29:49,284 Speaker 2: and that when Biden represent the past, he's a silent 609 00:29:49,364 --> 00:29:52,604 Speaker 2: generation dude, but that Trump is too uh, and that 610 00:29:52,644 --> 00:29:56,884 Speaker 2: Trump is sort of clinging to a backwards looking old 611 00:29:56,924 --> 00:29:59,244 Speaker 2: man thing. And look, I think you know, I don't. 612 00:29:59,364 --> 00:30:00,684 Speaker 2: I don't think it's sort of like you. I don't 613 00:30:00,684 --> 00:30:01,924 Speaker 2: think you just turn around and be like, well, our 614 00:30:01,924 --> 00:30:03,324 Speaker 2: guy was too old, so we dumped him, and now 615 00:30:03,364 --> 00:30:05,324 Speaker 2: you're guys too old, you are the problem. I don't 616 00:30:05,324 --> 00:30:07,004 Speaker 2: think that quite works. Yeah out loud. 617 00:30:07,164 --> 00:30:10,004 Speaker 1: People have to be a little bit careful about about yeah. 618 00:30:10,044 --> 00:30:12,284 Speaker 1: And you've seen these happen a couple You've had Republicans 619 00:30:12,364 --> 00:30:14,924 Speaker 1: say so some of the Biden I call them dead enders. 620 00:30:15,204 --> 00:30:18,124 Speaker 1: We're saying, well, fourtune million people voted in the Democratic primaries. 621 00:30:18,324 --> 00:30:20,484 Speaker 1: You know, actually in the state where I am, New York, 622 00:30:21,364 --> 00:30:23,684 Speaker 1: every candidate but Driiden had already dropped out right by 623 00:30:23,724 --> 00:30:25,244 Speaker 1: the time the Democrat New York would have had the 624 00:30:25,244 --> 00:30:27,404 Speaker 1: opportunity to vote. And so it's it's kind of a 625 00:30:27,404 --> 00:30:30,724 Speaker 1: BS talking point, but that got recycled by Republicans, and likewise, 626 00:30:30,804 --> 00:30:33,004 Speaker 1: this point about oh, you can't have someone who's going 627 00:30:33,044 --> 00:30:34,844 Speaker 1: to be eighty years old during the presidential term run 628 00:30:34,884 --> 00:30:38,364 Speaker 1: has now been used by Democrats. I mean, people voters 629 00:30:38,364 --> 00:30:42,924 Speaker 1: have some type of memories, right, They actually are more 630 00:30:42,964 --> 00:30:45,724 Speaker 1: resistant to hypocrisy than you might think. So give those 631 00:30:45,804 --> 00:30:48,844 Speaker 1: arguments a little bit of time to dry out before 632 00:30:48,884 --> 00:30:50,444 Speaker 1: you try to recycle them or whatever. 633 00:30:50,524 --> 00:30:56,244 Speaker 2: Yeah, good, no, no, you got mat. I mean, I 634 00:30:56,484 --> 00:30:59,484 Speaker 2: you know. One thing that for me personally has always 635 00:30:59,764 --> 00:31:01,884 Speaker 2: been a problem here is that my main concern is 636 00:31:01,884 --> 00:31:03,964 Speaker 2: about the age of Biden and Trump have never really 637 00:31:04,004 --> 00:31:07,684 Speaker 2: been electoral concerns. Partisan voters will look past a lot 638 00:31:07,724 --> 00:31:09,724 Speaker 2: of stuff, right like how far Biden and head of 639 00:31:09,764 --> 00:31:12,244 Speaker 2: decline before the voters really started to sort of be 640 00:31:12,324 --> 00:31:14,764 Speaker 2: concerned about it. My concern has always been that these 641 00:31:14,764 --> 00:31:17,684 Speaker 2: guys are too old to do the governance job. And 642 00:31:17,884 --> 00:31:21,004 Speaker 2: that's something that I think is really important. That we 643 00:31:21,044 --> 00:31:23,564 Speaker 2: want someone who's competent twenty four to seven on call 644 00:31:23,644 --> 00:31:26,844 Speaker 2: in the White House and energetic in a management capacity 645 00:31:26,844 --> 00:31:28,804 Speaker 2: and a leadership quality. And I just don't think eighty 646 00:31:28,884 --> 00:31:31,404 Speaker 2: year olds have it that said, that's not how must 647 00:31:31,444 --> 00:31:34,204 Speaker 2: voters think. Most voters are cross pressured by their opinions 648 00:31:34,244 --> 00:31:38,084 Speaker 2: on abortion and their views on taxes, and their ties 649 00:31:38,244 --> 00:31:40,884 Speaker 2: sentimental ties to parties, and that's not how they think. 650 00:31:40,924 --> 00:31:43,764 Speaker 2: And so I don't think there's anything that prevents a 651 00:31:43,764 --> 00:31:45,924 Speaker 2: candidate who's going to be in their eighties like Trump 652 00:31:46,004 --> 00:31:48,484 Speaker 2: or like Biden was four years ago, from winning an election. 653 00:31:49,124 --> 00:31:51,524 Speaker 2: Voters are more than willing to overlook that stuff in 654 00:31:51,524 --> 00:31:54,324 Speaker 2: the name of parsonship or ideology. And so you know, 655 00:31:54,404 --> 00:31:56,124 Speaker 2: it's not sort of the definitive way to beat Trump. 656 00:31:56,124 --> 00:31:59,004 Speaker 2: He's old. But I amused yesterday that Harris could run 657 00:31:59,044 --> 00:32:02,844 Speaker 2: a campaign of something like he's too old, he's too extreme, 658 00:32:02,844 --> 00:32:04,884 Speaker 2: he's too incompetent, and he's too dangerous, and make it 659 00:32:04,964 --> 00:32:07,084 Speaker 2: part of the campaign, which would be sort of this 660 00:32:07,124 --> 00:32:10,404 Speaker 2: forward looking campaign. Again, that's the optimistic I have for her. 661 00:32:10,604 --> 00:32:13,404 Speaker 2: I'm not particularly optimistic about Harris. I think there's every 662 00:32:13,484 --> 00:32:15,764 Speaker 2: chance in the world that she loses, and loses badly here. 663 00:32:16,124 --> 00:32:19,644 Speaker 2: But the bigger point, and this isn't isn't news to you, 664 00:32:19,804 --> 00:32:24,164 Speaker 2: is that you take your least worst options, and in 665 00:32:24,204 --> 00:32:27,404 Speaker 2: a game thiry sense, when one path is foreclosed for you, 666 00:32:27,484 --> 00:32:29,404 Speaker 2: and you are not going to win, you try another. 667 00:32:29,604 --> 00:32:31,724 Speaker 2: The poker analogy is this, if you're at the river 668 00:32:32,244 --> 00:32:34,924 Speaker 2: and you know you can't win by calling because you're 669 00:32:34,924 --> 00:32:38,044 Speaker 2: holding six high, well then you stop thinking about calling, 670 00:32:38,364 --> 00:32:41,644 Speaker 2: and you ever decide what's better folding or raising. And 671 00:32:42,084 --> 00:32:44,044 Speaker 2: Biden at this point was the call with six high 672 00:32:44,084 --> 00:32:47,724 Speaker 2: in some ways not exactly, but it was the call 673 00:32:47,764 --> 00:32:48,524 Speaker 2: with a very weekend. 674 00:32:49,324 --> 00:32:52,084 Speaker 1: I mean to sound like a little sports talk radio 675 00:32:52,764 --> 00:32:58,044 Speaker 1: Bill Simmonsy. You know one reason I can imagine Harris winning, 676 00:32:58,084 --> 00:32:59,884 Speaker 1: And again, I think we'll have our model out in 677 00:32:59,884 --> 00:33:01,564 Speaker 1: a week or so. Thirty five percent seems like a 678 00:33:01,604 --> 00:33:07,004 Speaker 1: sensible biggest line for now. She kind of has in 679 00:33:07,044 --> 00:33:09,244 Speaker 1: a weird way. And I know people are gonna get 680 00:33:09,244 --> 00:33:13,004 Speaker 1: mad because of the stakes and an election, but psychologically 681 00:33:13,084 --> 00:33:16,044 Speaker 1: there's a little bit of like having nothing to lose. 682 00:33:16,764 --> 00:33:18,684 Speaker 1: But let's talk about the VP. How much do you 683 00:33:18,684 --> 00:33:21,484 Speaker 1: think the VP pick matters? And do you agree with 684 00:33:21,524 --> 00:33:24,924 Speaker 1: conventional wisdom that you know the names that are better 685 00:33:25,804 --> 00:33:28,204 Speaker 1: about the most, not bettered about better at about the 686 00:33:28,204 --> 00:33:32,924 Speaker 1: most are like Shapiro, Andy Basher in Kentucky, who else? 687 00:33:33,124 --> 00:33:35,884 Speaker 1: Whitmer a little bit, although it seemed people seem to 688 00:33:35,884 --> 00:33:38,644 Speaker 1: think that you'd rather have at least one man on 689 00:33:38,724 --> 00:33:40,964 Speaker 1: the ticket, Roy Cooper, do you have a preference between 690 00:33:40,964 --> 00:33:43,444 Speaker 1: and among those and how much difference would you expect 691 00:33:43,444 --> 00:33:45,004 Speaker 1: a VP pick to make well? 692 00:33:45,044 --> 00:33:47,004 Speaker 2: In general, I would not expect a VP pick to 693 00:33:47,004 --> 00:33:50,604 Speaker 2: make much difference at all in any sort of electoral sense. 694 00:33:50,804 --> 00:33:52,044 Speaker 2: That's sort of the guiding history. 695 00:33:52,164 --> 00:33:52,404 Speaker 1: Now. 696 00:33:52,564 --> 00:33:55,084 Speaker 2: That's often because you know, people at pick sort of 697 00:33:55,164 --> 00:33:58,724 Speaker 2: like competent, traditionally sort of qualified vice presidents. 698 00:33:58,804 --> 00:33:58,964 Speaker 1: Right. 699 00:33:59,324 --> 00:34:01,644 Speaker 2: The one place we do see I think in the 700 00:34:01,644 --> 00:34:03,844 Speaker 2: polling some drop off was with the plent pick. Right. 701 00:34:04,124 --> 00:34:06,284 Speaker 2: If you make a terrible pick, right, like, it could 702 00:34:06,284 --> 00:34:07,604 Speaker 2: go back for on you. But I think it's pretty 703 00:34:07,604 --> 00:34:09,644 Speaker 2: hard to make a terrible pick. I think sort of 704 00:34:09,724 --> 00:34:12,564 Speaker 2: internal party politics are just as important as anything else 705 00:34:12,604 --> 00:34:15,684 Speaker 2: in a VP pick. It seems like the conventional wisdom 706 00:34:15,724 --> 00:34:18,884 Speaker 2: is sort of like moderate white guy governor is the 707 00:34:18,884 --> 00:34:21,164 Speaker 2: way to go here, sort of like this balancing of 708 00:34:21,164 --> 00:34:23,044 Speaker 2: a scriptive representation, which is something that the parties are 709 00:34:23,044 --> 00:34:25,004 Speaker 2: obsessed with. But I also think that the voters like, 710 00:34:25,084 --> 00:34:29,684 Speaker 2: so I think it's okay. I think that Whitmer might 711 00:34:29,844 --> 00:34:32,164 Speaker 2: be a good candidate, except that I think parties are 712 00:34:32,324 --> 00:34:35,324 Speaker 2: very risk averse about things like putting two women in 713 00:34:35,364 --> 00:34:38,644 Speaker 2: the ticket, both for like reasonable reasons. I think historically 714 00:34:38,924 --> 00:34:41,124 Speaker 2: parties have always sort of run sort of like white 715 00:34:41,164 --> 00:34:43,924 Speaker 2: Protestant dudes for a president because they're very worried that 716 00:34:43,964 --> 00:34:46,004 Speaker 2: even if it only costs you half a point from 717 00:34:46,044 --> 00:34:48,164 Speaker 2: someone who doesn't like Catholics or whatever, like half a 718 00:34:48,204 --> 00:34:50,524 Speaker 2: point matters in elections like this is planned for keeps, 719 00:34:50,804 --> 00:34:52,884 Speaker 2: and so they've been very risk averse about heading off 720 00:34:52,884 --> 00:34:56,004 Speaker 2: into sort of minority group risk representation. And I think, 721 00:34:56,644 --> 00:34:58,404 Speaker 2: right or wrong, the view would be that two women 722 00:34:58,444 --> 00:35:01,284 Speaker 2: would potentially hurt you on the margins when the margins 723 00:35:01,324 --> 00:35:03,964 Speaker 2: really matter. I think a lot of people also seeing 724 00:35:04,004 --> 00:35:07,204 Speaker 2: ghosts from Clinton in twenty sixteen when they think that way, 725 00:35:07,284 --> 00:35:09,124 Speaker 2: it's probably not that big a deal. But I think 726 00:35:09,124 --> 00:35:11,644 Speaker 2: it is a deal, and so yeah, I think, you know, 727 00:35:11,764 --> 00:35:14,284 Speaker 2: I think the conventional wisdom now is that like Basher 728 00:35:14,444 --> 00:35:18,964 Speaker 2: or Cooper North Carolina are like sort of people you 729 00:35:19,044 --> 00:35:21,164 Speaker 2: might pick because there can you know, moderate white guys 730 00:35:21,164 --> 00:35:24,764 Speaker 2: who have proven records and sort of reddish states. Shapiro 731 00:35:25,244 --> 00:35:27,564 Speaker 2: is sort of more of a well, this guy could 732 00:35:27,564 --> 00:35:30,964 Speaker 2: help us win Pennsylvania type pick. I think the the 733 00:35:31,004 --> 00:35:32,844 Speaker 2: you know, the political science evidence is that maybe the 734 00:35:32,924 --> 00:35:35,404 Speaker 2: VP could give you a point or two in their 735 00:35:35,404 --> 00:35:39,284 Speaker 2: home state potentially, and that's not nothing in Pennsylvania. 736 00:35:40,044 --> 00:35:41,844 Speaker 1: We're gonna leave it there. Thank you so much for 737 00:35:41,884 --> 00:35:42,884 Speaker 1: pinch hitting today, Matt. 738 00:35:42,924 --> 00:35:44,124 Speaker 2: All right, Nate, thanks for having me on. 739 00:35:44,204 --> 00:35:46,564 Speaker 1: This is awesome for listeners. This is probably our early 740 00:35:46,644 --> 00:35:50,324 Speaker 1: episode of the week, but we've said that before. There's 741 00:35:50,364 --> 00:35:54,004 Speaker 1: world series of poker controversies to talk about, so expect 742 00:35:54,044 --> 00:35:55,884 Speaker 1: back next week with a mix of poker, politics and 743 00:35:55,924 --> 00:36:03,644 Speaker 1: everything else. But thank you for listening. Risky Business is 744 00:36:03,644 --> 00:36:06,924 Speaker 1: hosted by me, Nate Silver and my co host Maria Kannakova. 745 00:36:07,764 --> 00:36:11,044 Speaker 1: The show is a co production of Push Industries and iHeartMedia. 746 00:36:11,724 --> 00:36:14,284 Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Isabel Carter and edited by 747 00:36:14,404 --> 00:36:18,364 Speaker 1: Sarah Nix. Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our 748 00:36:18,404 --> 00:36:21,644 Speaker 1: executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. If you want to listen 749 00:36:21,684 --> 00:36:24,124 Speaker 1: to an ad free version, sign up for pushkin Plus. 750 00:36:24,204 --> 00:36:26,324 Speaker 1: For six hundy nine a month, you get access to 751 00:36:26,404 --> 00:36:28,564 Speaker 1: ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in.