1 00:00:01,720 --> 00:00:05,040 Speaker 1: Col Zon Media. 2 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:08,559 Speaker 2: Welcome to it could happen here. I'm Robert Evans, and 3 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 2: this is a podcast about things falling apart, which they 4 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:15,720 Speaker 2: always seem to be these days, and in particular, this 5 00:00:15,840 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 2: is an episode about what to expect out of the 6 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 2: next six months to a year. If you're not sure 7 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,720 Speaker 2: what else to do, try and spread calm. I first 8 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:28,639 Speaker 2: learned this lesson back in twenty sixteen hanging out with 9 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:33,519 Speaker 2: perennial Libertarian presidential candidate Vermin Supreme during the protests around 10 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 2: that year's Democratic Invention in Philadelphia. If you've never had 11 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 2: the pleasure of seeing Vermin at a protest, he's essentially 12 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 2: a rodeo clown for riot cops, and his example taught 13 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 2: me a lot about how to communicate to a group 14 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 2: of angry, scared people in tense situations. Those lessons came 15 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:53,199 Speaker 2: in handy for me back in twenty twenty. But the 16 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:56,600 Speaker 2: George Floyd Uprising is now almost five years in the past. 17 00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 2: Trump is once again in power, very little to stand 18 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 2: between him and the exercise of a kind of arbitrary, 19 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 2: dictatorial violence that this nation has seldom seen within its 20 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:11,480 Speaker 2: own borders, but as often sponsored elsewhere, including El Salvador, 21 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 2: where Trump has sent hundreds of American residents and plans 22 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 2: to send thousands, perhaps tens of thousands more. The purpose 23 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 2: of this essay is to provide my predictions for the 24 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:24,680 Speaker 2: next six months to a year. What I'm writing here 25 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:27,559 Speaker 2: is speculative, but it is based on the best data 26 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:31,120 Speaker 2: I have available in numerous conversations I've had with activists, 27 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 2: current federal employees, former soldiers, and retired law enforcement. There 28 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 2: are a million places where I could start, but I 29 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 2: feel like the most responsible place to begin is by 30 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 2: answering this question, is now the time to panic? Last year, 31 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 2: after Biden's disastrous debate performance, I put out a podcast 32 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 2: essay titled Don't Panic. It was my most shared episode 33 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 2: of this podcast that year, and I felt pretty good 34 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 2: about the response until Trump again, and I found it 35 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 2: briefly impossible to take my own advice. Since January of 36 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five, the fascist takeover has only accelerated, and 37 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 2: I have lost count of the number of people who've 38 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 2: asked me, is it time to panic? The answer to 39 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 2: that is still no, but not because there's no reason 40 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 2: to panic. In fact, panic is a natural reaction to 41 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 2: our present moment. If your fight or flight reflexes haven't 42 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 2: been triggered, well, they might be broken. Even so, don't panic, 43 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 2: because in combat and disasters, in any dangerous situation, you 44 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 2: might find yourself panic is what will kill you as 45 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 2: surely as anything else. There's a concept in military theory 46 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 2: I bring up often, something introduced to soldiers undergoing training today. 47 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 2: It's called the ODA loop. It describes the process people 48 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 2: go through while acting and reacting under fire, and particularly 49 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 2: while deciding how to act and react under fire. It 50 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 2: stands for observe, orient, decide and act. If you can 51 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:05,800 Speaker 2: interrupt any part of that loop, you can stop your 52 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 2: enemy from fighting back effectively. The basic principle of the 53 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,799 Speaker 2: ODA loop functions on the grand strategy scale as well 54 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 2: as it does in a gunfight. This is the point 55 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:19,359 Speaker 2: behind the flood the zone strategy, orchestrated by Stephen Miller 56 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 2: and the other intellectual luminaries behind Trump iiO. The fire 57 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 2: hose of outrage is to distract you from observing everything 58 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 2: that's happening, to keep you off balance so you can't 59 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:34,840 Speaker 2: orient yourself, to stop you from deciding and acting. Elon 60 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 2: Musk's purchase of Twitter helped to supercharge the bullshit. Cannon 61 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 2: AI accelerated the spread of lies on social media beyond 62 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 2: all of our worst nightmares, and this has helped blind 63 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 2: and divide the people who should have linked arms to 64 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 2: stop this shit before it got to the point that 65 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 2: it's at today. I want you to think of how 66 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 2: many prominent leftists have fallen repeatedly for right wing propaganda 67 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 2: like that Russia would never invade Ukraine, or that Trump 68 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 2: might actually be somehow better for Gaza. These and a 69 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 2: million other things have blinded and hobbled potential resistance. I 70 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 2: might also bring up the whole Maga communist movement, but 71 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 2: the less set about those people, the better. Meanwhile, columnists 72 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 2: at liberal legacy publications like The Times have fallen for 73 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:22,159 Speaker 2: every hyped up story about transgender athletes or woke kids 74 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 2: on college campuses and the danger the liberal left poses 75 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:29,600 Speaker 2: to free speech. They've denied genocide and demonized those who 76 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:33,159 Speaker 2: protest against it, and too many elected Democrats have taken 77 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 2: their lead as the path of least resistance. Many have 78 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 2: pulled right for reasons far more sinister. The fact that 79 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 2: Gavin Newsom, governor of California, is hosting fascists on his 80 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 2: new podcast while mailing burner phones to tech CEOs points 81 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 2: towards something dark, immediate, deadly. We live now in the 82 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 2: culmination of a successful decades long plot two, in the 83 00:04:57,040 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 2: words of Curtis Jarvin, repeal the twentieth century and turned 84 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:04,280 Speaker 2: this nation into a dictatorship where our lives and our 85 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:08,240 Speaker 2: collective national arsenal are the personal property of some dudes 86 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 2: who inherited oil money or invested in Facebook back in 87 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 2: like two thousand and five. The early stages of the plan, 88 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:18,480 Speaker 2: of course, date back well before Peter Teele or Elon 89 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 2: Musk or Donald Trump. They began when a coalition of 90 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 2: would be oligarchs tried to overthrow FDR in what has 91 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 2: become known as the Business Plot, and were thwarted by 92 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:31,840 Speaker 2: a Marine general named Smedley Butler. These men wanted revenge 93 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 2: for the New Deal, but they found seizing power at 94 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 2: the top harder than they'd hoped, and so they embarked 95 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 2: on a slower, bottom up approach. Hence the John Birch Society, 96 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 2: the creation of countless think tanks, and the generation's long 97 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 2: effort to stack the Supreme Court. The war on abortion 98 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:52,719 Speaker 2: was a concerted step towards this plan. An artificial creation 99 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 2: alongside the birth of the religious right as a political coalition. 100 00:05:57,320 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 2: There was initially a small group of men at the 101 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 2: center of the web, guys like William Brignery Won and 102 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:06,960 Speaker 2: William Brignery Do or Paul Wayrich. But the engine of 103 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 2: cultural and political change forged from the late forties to 104 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 2: the nineteen seventies was so successful that at some point 105 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 2: it became self perpetuating. And when a gaggle of tech 106 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:18,840 Speaker 2: bros found themselves with more wealth than any humans that 107 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 2: ever held, the machine was there to mold them and 108 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 2: to be used by them. It's all worked so damn 109 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:27,680 Speaker 2: well that many people I know have lost hope entirely. 110 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,599 Speaker 2: We're fucked, goes the script. They're going to send us 111 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:33,159 Speaker 2: to the camps, and they can't be stopped, at least 112 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:38,560 Speaker 2: not without apocalyptic bloodshed. Well that's not necessarily so. Now 113 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:41,719 Speaker 2: people have already died as a result of this administration, 114 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,480 Speaker 2: a lot of them, and that will continue to happen. 115 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 2: But a collapse into total carnage is not inevitable, nor 116 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 2: is a future that offers us nothing but a boot 117 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 2: upon our necks. Despite the money that went into building 118 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 2: that this is a new house made with cheap materials, 119 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 2: and there are already cracks in the foundation. So my 120 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:04,039 Speaker 2: first prediction for the coming months is this, the cracks 121 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:08,040 Speaker 2: will widen, and we'll talk about that, but first, as 122 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 2: we're obligated to do, here's some ads. Trump and the 123 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 2: men who swim in his wake signal only strength. Honesty 124 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 2: is neither in their interest nor a strong suit. But 125 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 2: Curtis Yarvin, chief profit of the neo Reactionaries and Peter 126 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 2: Teel's pet philosopher, is in a different position. He knows 127 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 2: people in power listen to some of what he has 128 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 2: to say, and over the last few months his profile 129 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 2: has risen enormously. I can take credit for an at 130 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 2: least tiny amount of that. Many normal liberals and elected 131 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 2: Democrats now know who he is. This exposes him to 132 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 2: a danger that was not present for him during Trump's 133 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 2: first term. If the current fascist salient should be pushed 134 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 2: back and this movement fails, there could be and should 135 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 2: be prosecutions, and he rightly fears that if this happens, 136 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 2: he might follow in the footsteps of Alfred Rosenberg, the 137 00:08:06,760 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 2: Nazi high theoretician who was executed at Nuremberg. That's why 138 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 2: on March sixth he published a messi sprawling, seven thousand 139 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 2: word essay titled Barbarians and Mandarins in his trademark nine 140 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 2: unreadable style. It comes with the subheading as soon as 141 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 2: it stops accelerating, it stalls and explodes. If you want 142 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 2: to spare yourself the headache of reading through one tenth 143 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:34,280 Speaker 2: of a novel of Yarvins at best turgid prose, there's 144 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 2: a good article by the nerd Reich that breaks all 145 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:38,960 Speaker 2: of this down. We'll link it in the show notes. 146 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 2: But the gist is that Jarvin thinks Musk and Trump 147 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 2: have been too slow, have embraced too many half measures, 148 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 2: and the whole authoritarian project is careening towards disaster. Quote. 149 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:54,680 Speaker 2: Unless the spectacular earthquakes of January and February are dwarfed 150 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 2: in March in April by new and unprecedented abuses of 151 00:08:57,360 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 2: the Richter scale, the Trump regime will start to win 152 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 2: and eventually dissipate. It cannot stay at its current level 153 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:05,959 Speaker 2: of power, which is too high to sustain but too 154 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 2: low to succeed. It has to keep doing things that 155 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:12,479 Speaker 2: have never been done before. As soon as it stops accelerating, 156 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 2: it stalls and explodes. Now, the weeks since have seen 157 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 2: massive and rising public awareness of Seacott the terrorism detention 158 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 2: facility in El Salvador being used as a concentration camp 159 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:27,200 Speaker 2: by the Trump regime. This might rightly be called a 160 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 2: new and unprecedented abuse. But there's a couple of issues here, 161 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 2: at least as far as Yarvin sees them. For one thing, 162 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:38,320 Speaker 2: the people targeted there have been migrants, people who are 163 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,080 Speaker 2: in the US, either illegally or in the US on 164 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 2: visas that have been revoked, people who have been accused 165 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 2: of being part of Trindagua, but not the people that 166 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 2: Jarvin wants to see liquidated, because, as he writes in 167 00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 2: this column, the thing that he thinks the Trump administration 168 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 2: should be doing right now is quite literally gassing media 169 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 2: personalities and politicians who don't align with his viewpoint, basically 170 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 2: literally killing the opposition. And since he's shown to be 171 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 2: unwilling to do that, the fact that he's shipping people 172 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 2: to concentration camps on its own isn't terrifying enough. 173 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 1: Now. 174 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 2: The other thing that's concerning Yarbon is that while the 175 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 2: use of this facility in El Salvador as a foreign 176 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 2: concentration camp by the Trump regime is terrifying and is unprecedented. 177 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,680 Speaker 2: It's also been met with a significant response, one that 178 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 2: burges on unprecedented itself. I'm not just talking about the 179 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 2: protests or of the recent Supreme Court ruling ordering a 180 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:39,199 Speaker 2: temporary halt of such deportations. I'm referring to something else 181 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 2: that's happened due to the sheer panic caused by the 182 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 2: knowledge that our president has a concentration camp and has 183 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:49,960 Speaker 2: been talking about shipping US citizen dissidents there. I'm talking 184 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 2: about stuff like the fact that formerly conservative columnist Bill 185 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:56,080 Speaker 2: Crystal is now calling for the outright abolition of ice 186 00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 2: and the arch neoliberal mealymouth David Brooks calling for a 187 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 2: general strike in the pages of the New York Times 188 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:06,439 Speaker 2: while quoting from the Communist Manifesto. This is more than 189 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 2: just a vibe shift. It's an open realization and acceptance 190 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 2: by prominent people who are neither radical nor revolutionaries that 191 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:18,960 Speaker 2: any action, even the formerly unimaginable, might be necessary and 192 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 2: justified in this regime. Now, make no mistake. First off, 193 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 2: this is because a lot of these people are worried 194 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:30,480 Speaker 2: about their own privileges going away under a dictatorial regime, 195 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:33,960 Speaker 2: but that doesn't change the fact that this is a 196 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 2: crack in the very foundation of the authoritarian power structure. 197 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 2: Jarvin is scared then, because we weren't supposed to be 198 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:44,520 Speaker 2: here now. Harvard was supposed to have folded like Columbia 199 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 2: and then have been slowly and quietly liquidated. The tame 200 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 2: press was supposed to turn wholly for the regime or 201 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:53,600 Speaker 2: be disappeared, not to quote Karl Marx, and urge people 202 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:56,800 Speaker 2: into the streets to do a general strike. So I 203 00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 2: don't find all this cheery because I think David Brooks 204 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 2: is going to become shithead Shay Govara. I am embraced, however, 205 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 2: by the failure that this represents for them and above 206 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:09,560 Speaker 2: us who seek unchecked dominance. Cracks are also visible in 207 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 2: the recent history of Elon Musk, who has watched the 208 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,319 Speaker 2: value of the stock that underpins his whole empire collapse. 209 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:18,720 Speaker 2: He fought desperately to convince Trump not to go through 210 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 2: with the tariffs that would punish it further. The result 211 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 2: we see Trump assuring his inner circle that Elon is 212 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 2: on the way out, while Musk himself prepares to step 213 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 2: back from doge In the hope that it will somehow 214 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:33,959 Speaker 2: protect the remainder of his ambitions. These are all good signs, 215 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:37,880 Speaker 2: and the damage will continue to spread. However, and this 216 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 2: brings me to my next prediction. The Empire's gonna strike back. 217 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:45,440 Speaker 2: We are in for a hot summer, my friends, and 218 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:47,320 Speaker 2: there's no way around that. I mean this in the 219 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 2: literal sense that it will probably be the hottest summer 220 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 2: on record, although that fact will be true of every 221 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 2: subsequent summer in our lives. But I also mean this 222 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:57,080 Speaker 2: in the sense that things are going to cook off 223 00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 2: in the streets very soon. This is something the administration 224 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 2: has quite openly been waiting to see. Trump has made 225 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 2: no secret of his desire to use the Insurrection Act 226 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:08,559 Speaker 2: not only at the border, but to send US troops 227 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:12,200 Speaker 2: and US cities to crush riots and punish leftist demonstrators. 228 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:15,200 Speaker 2: This was a desire hatched in reaction to the George 229 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:18,040 Speaker 2: Floyd uprising, and it always seems to be envisioned by 230 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 2: the right as targeted against black clad antifa types. The 231 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:25,679 Speaker 2: reality is that anti fascists have not been a consistent 232 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 2: presence on the ground around the country for some time, 233 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 2: at least not organizing in the way that they were 234 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:33,439 Speaker 2: back when antifa was a buzzword. There are numerous reasons 235 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 2: for this, but the biggest is that the fascist movement 236 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:38,720 Speaker 2: has moved beyond waving flags in the street and getting 237 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:41,600 Speaker 2: into fistfights to try and scare people. A lot of 238 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:45,240 Speaker 2: them are running federal law enforcement agencies in the military. Now, 239 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,679 Speaker 2: Proud boys just tain't a priority, not for those on 240 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 2: the left who want to stop this, or frankly, for 241 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 2: the administration. I expect protests around the country in the 242 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:58,080 Speaker 2: coming months for several reasons, but the likeliest event to 243 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 2: provoke severe civil disruption is a right and food prices 244 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:04,320 Speaker 2: in the rise of everything else in price, as well 245 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 2: as a collapsing economy courtesy of the president's tariffs. There 246 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 2: are already numerous signs of this, both in terms of 247 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 2: the volume of shipping coming into the United States and 248 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:17,679 Speaker 2: early signs of collapsing crop yields in the United States. 249 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 2: And this is where a study of history helps one out, 250 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 2: because nothing but nothing breaks down regimes like rising bread prices, 251 00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 2: and any attempt to crack down will be stymy by 252 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 2: the fact that a decent chunk of the elites who 253 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 2: backed Trump before will be suffering too. Obviously, the people 254 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 2: closest to him are making bank off the economic upswings 255 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 2: and downswings over the whole tariff issue. But there's a 256 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 2: lot of other people, people who supported him, people who 257 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 2: thought he had their back, who aren't quite close enough 258 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 2: to power, and they're watching Trump shoot their own fortunes 259 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 2: in the kneecap because they built their money on free trade. 260 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 2: I won't pretend to know where things are going to 261 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 2: pop off or will be the hottest, but the evidence 262 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 2: shows the regime at least SPEC's Washington d C to 263 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 2: play a central role in what comes next. Republican Congress 264 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 2: members recently reintroduced a bill to repeal DC's self rule, 265 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 2: and Trump appointed Ed Martin to be the city attorney, 266 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 2: a man who, in the words of USA Today columnist 267 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 2: Chris Brennan quote, lacks experience but loves revenge. Now, the 268 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 2: fact that Elon Musk and his Doze cronies left so 269 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 2: many in the city and the surrounding area unemployed after 270 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 2: their purge of the administrative state means that there's an 271 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 2: even higher number of motivated, angry people with free time 272 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 2: and experiencing organizing large, complex systems who have nothing to 273 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:41,040 Speaker 2: do right now. A similar set of circumstances brought us 274 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:43,720 Speaker 2: to the twenty twenty uprisings. This was not just a 275 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 2: product of the months of isolation, or of the brutality 276 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 2: of George Floyd's murder, but of the sheer number of 277 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 2: people who were out of work and who were finally 278 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,000 Speaker 2: given a chance to take out their anxiety at an 279 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 2: authoritarian president tightening his grip. And today that grip is 280 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 2: even tighter, the danger more real. We have a president 281 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 2: openly discussing his desire to put American citizens in a 282 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 2: foreign concentration camp. Trump and his inner circle are hoping 283 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,640 Speaker 2: for protests that stay isolated to DC and perhaps a 284 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:16,280 Speaker 2: few major Blue cities, Portland and the like. This would 285 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 2: provide an opportunity to send in the troops, to utilize 286 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 2: the Insurrection Act, to shoot people in the street, and 287 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:25,960 Speaker 2: to send some ringleaders off to l Salvador. This would 288 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:28,920 Speaker 2: be the riskiest option for Trump in some ways. Pete 289 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 2: Hegseth has not been a competent or popular Secretary of Defense, 290 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 2: and asking US troops to fire on protesters opens up 291 00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 2: the risk that some junior officer might bulk at that order, 292 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:43,000 Speaker 2: which could create a cascading chain of disobedience. Such things 293 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:47,320 Speaker 2: have sparked rapid collapse in other dictatorships throughout history. There's 294 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:50,720 Speaker 2: also the chance that spectacular and comprehensive violence by the 295 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 2: military might succeed and thus strangle any protest movement in 296 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 2: the cradle. So we might call this the high risk, 297 00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 2: high reward option. And I should note that Don Trump 298 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 2: has more than a few times in the past chosen 299 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,640 Speaker 2: the high risk, high reward option, so I don't consider 300 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 2: this unlikely. But it won't be lost on Trump or 301 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 2: his cronies that the violence which met the first protest 302 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:16,400 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty provoked the largest domestic uprising and living memory. 303 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 2: People have not forgotten this, and some blue state Democrats 304 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 2: have even made let's say, confusing noises to that effect. 305 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:26,879 Speaker 2: Case in point, Governor Bob Ferguson of Washington just signed 306 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,920 Speaker 2: to bill barring other state National Guard units from entering 307 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 2: Washington without his approval unless they were mobilized by the President. Now, 308 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:36,879 Speaker 2: as that last part might key you when on, this 309 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:39,119 Speaker 2: bill doesn't have a lot of legal force or any 310 00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:41,959 Speaker 2: really at all, but it's a sign that even fairly 311 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:45,200 Speaker 2: milk toast elected Democrats are starting to consider the real 312 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:49,440 Speaker 2: possibility of a federal invasion of their states. The President 313 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 2: has discussed sending out of state troops into blue cities before, 314 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:55,720 Speaker 2: largely in the context of cracking down on immigration and 315 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 2: sanctuary cities. This is all dangerous language, but going first 316 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 2: other than just language carries risk for the regime too. 317 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:05,320 Speaker 2: I would not be shocked if we were to see 318 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:09,639 Speaker 2: the Texas National Guard or whoever, whichever state occupying let's 319 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:13,199 Speaker 2: say Chicago, after federal law enforcement makes good on the 320 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 2: threats that have been made by members of the Trump 321 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 2: administration to arrest governors who aid in a bet undocumented 322 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 2: migrants like JB. Pritzker, and an act like that would 323 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:26,719 Speaker 2: surely spark mass protests in Chicago and very likely elsewhere. 324 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 2: The fact that a move like that would have such 325 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 2: a risk of sparking mass resistance as well as further 326 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:37,400 Speaker 2: legal challenges, might keep the Trump administration focused on smaller 327 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 2: fish and less dangerous outrages, at least for the time being. 328 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 2: And if that's the route they choose, I think something 329 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,440 Speaker 2: different might be likely. And I call this potential path 330 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 2: forward the pressure cooker, and we'll talk about that. But first, 331 00:18:52,680 --> 00:19:06,720 Speaker 2: here's more ads. When public unrest exploded in twenty twenty. 332 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 2: It did so after four solid years of build up. 333 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 2: If you'll remember, the earliest fascist anti fascist street clashes 334 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 2: of that period, started before the twenty sixteen elections, were 335 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:21,639 Speaker 2: largely focused around speeches and campuses by right wing provocateurs 336 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:25,119 Speaker 2: and dueling demonstrations in a handful of cities. The first 337 00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 2: wave of such activity crested in Charlottesville twenty seventeen with 338 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,520 Speaker 2: tragic results, but the vibe it set and the people 339 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,320 Speaker 2: it trained continued to take part in street actions, and 340 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 2: many of them formed the infrastructural core of the movement 341 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 2: that exploded onto the scene after George Floyd's murder. The 342 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:44,119 Speaker 2: last year of serious protests have focused more on the 343 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:47,320 Speaker 2: genocide and Gaza than anything, and it's not coincidental that 344 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 2: the first wave of deportations have heavily targeted legal residents 345 00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:54,399 Speaker 2: who took part in those demonstrations. Since Trump took office 346 00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:57,040 Speaker 2: and DOZE started doing its thing, there have been more 347 00:19:57,160 --> 00:20:00,440 Speaker 2: large scale demos that focused directly on the regime. Now, 348 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,359 Speaker 2: these have been quite manageable from the regime's point of view, 349 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,399 Speaker 2: and they have not yet attracted the same kind of 350 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 2: crackdown but that won't remain the case as people grow 351 00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 2: more desperate. Any fool can see that the apparatus of 352 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 2: repression constructed to punish genocide protesters will be turned on democrats, 353 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 2: former federal employees, and people who are just hungry and 354 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:24,160 Speaker 2: pissed about rising food prices. However, this represents another tightrope 355 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:28,320 Speaker 2: scenario for the regime. These demonstrations are large, and unlike 356 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 2: student protests against Israel, the media has proved less eager 357 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:36,199 Speaker 2: to marginalize the participants as extremists. As time goes on 358 00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 2: and things get worse, folks who last year scoffed at 359 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 2: college students occupying campus buildings may themselves consider if perhaps 360 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 2: it might be time to fox some shit up. This 361 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:50,119 Speaker 2: will be an uneven process with sudden leaps forward and 362 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:54,359 Speaker 2: pulls back, and it will provoke an equally uneven state response. 363 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,720 Speaker 2: There will be attempts to send so called instigators and 364 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:01,640 Speaker 2: organizers overseas to will solve or unless the public reaction 365 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 2: to this, which is building as I type, continues to 366 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,880 Speaker 2: escalate to the extent that it becomes unfeasible. If so, 367 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:11,720 Speaker 2: there are ample domestic locations to detain or even disappear 368 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:15,960 Speaker 2: those the regime considers dangerous. First on the chopping block 369 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,399 Speaker 2: will be the people whose heads are currently closest to 370 00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:22,639 Speaker 2: the blade, organizers and demonstrators against genocide, whose citizenship is 371 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:26,520 Speaker 2: not at all in question. I expect if large disruptive 372 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 2: demonstrations do threaten the administration's hold, they will also start 373 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 2: to our target Antifa again, which will start with the 374 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:36,239 Speaker 2: targeting of longtime activists, many of whom would have been 375 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:40,160 Speaker 2: people arrested or at least heavily surveilled in twenty twenty. However, 376 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,399 Speaker 2: it won't end there, and it will quickly expand to 377 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:48,160 Speaker 2: elected Democrats, new people organizing protests, folks who have never 378 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 2: had anything to do with any of the kind of 379 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:53,800 Speaker 2: anti fascist actions that so captivated Fox News back in 380 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:56,480 Speaker 2: twenty twenty. I will be shocked if we make it 381 00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,119 Speaker 2: more than another year without a serious attempt to brand 382 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:03,159 Speaker 2: Antifa demastic terror organization, and if that succeeds in a 383 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:05,880 Speaker 2: way that has legal force, then the fact that there 384 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:09,080 Speaker 2: is no such organization won't matter. Trump's Feds will do 385 00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:12,400 Speaker 2: what we've watched Ice do with Trendagua. They'll break down 386 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,320 Speaker 2: the door of whoever they wish argue tattoos or possessions 387 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 2: of certain literature or whatever is proof of membership, and 388 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:21,320 Speaker 2: then those who survive the raids will find themselves in 389 00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:24,679 Speaker 2: the most restrictive detention the regime feels secure placing them in. 390 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 2: If things follow what I suspect is the likeliest path. 391 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:31,000 Speaker 2: We will watch this process ebb and flow over the 392 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:34,240 Speaker 2: next several months each spring and summer. Protests will grow 393 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,359 Speaker 2: and peak in the hottest months, with new cities and 394 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:40,600 Speaker 2: tactics being attempted regularly by groups constantly reeling from raids 395 00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 2: that are devastating and terrifying, but due to the incompetence 396 00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,600 Speaker 2: of an FBI whose investigative capacity has been neutered, fail 397 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:52,679 Speaker 2: to really disrupt things. As the weather cools off, exhausted 398 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:56,120 Speaker 2: activists will lick their wounds and make new plans. Scattered 399 00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,120 Speaker 2: acts of disruption carried out by small groups or individual 400 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 2: cells occur year round, but I expect large scale demonstrations 401 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:07,359 Speaker 2: and clashes between demonstrators and law enforcement to follow a 402 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 2: pattern not so different from what Afghanistan veterans knew was 403 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 2: fighting season, hot summers of mass activity, winters of raids, 404 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:17,960 Speaker 2: and experimentation to scout holes for the next year's offensive, 405 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 2: and as time goes on, the energy will build, the 406 00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:25,880 Speaker 2: tension will build, and of course we might find ourselves 407 00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 2: reaching towards something that explodes in the not too distant future, 408 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 2: perhaps a year or two down the line. Now, of course, 409 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,159 Speaker 2: none of this will occur in a vacuum or independent 410 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 2: of the news churn that we've been drowning in for years. 411 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 2: And this brings me to my next prediction, which is 412 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:47,120 Speaker 2: the coming of politics as unusual. I apologize for coming 413 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,119 Speaker 2: back to the David Brooks of it all, but seeing 414 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,520 Speaker 2: a man who in twenty seventeen wrote the Trump had 415 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:54,800 Speaker 2: changed and we really needed to stop stressing out over him, 416 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:58,160 Speaker 2: and then wrote a column attacking millennials for their tribalism. 417 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,200 Speaker 2: Call for a general strike is a sign, and it's 418 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:03,879 Speaker 2: not a sign that Brooks has gotten smarter. It's a 419 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 2: sign that we've entered radical times, and that radicalization spares 420 00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 2: not even the centrist. If the worst case scenario occurs 421 00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,520 Speaker 2: in a few weeks from now, US soldiers are gunning 422 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:17,000 Speaker 2: down demonstrators while ice officers krt elected Democrats off the 423 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:20,919 Speaker 2: Seacott feel free to disregard this passage. But if the 424 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 2: somewhat slower path prevails, I expect to see more politicians 425 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 2: and news editors chase viewers as they sprint left or 426 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 2: at least away from the dissolving center. We've watched this 427 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,159 Speaker 2: process occur on the right during the Biden years, and 428 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,399 Speaker 2: to a degree it is still occurring out of a 429 00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 2: fear of reprisals under the Trump regime. I'm finalizing the 430 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,639 Speaker 2: script on the Day sixty Minutes producer Bill Owens step 431 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,960 Speaker 2: down over interference from paramount executives into his coverage of 432 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 2: Donald Trump. But the polls have started moving against the right. 433 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,960 Speaker 2: Trump's public approval on immigration policy is under water for 434 00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,880 Speaker 2: the first time in years, and his approval on everything 435 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:58,399 Speaker 2: else is, while not always at record lows, diving with 436 00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 2: significant speed. The next several months of shipping data, as 437 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,600 Speaker 2: well as concerning early reporting on farm yields, suggests a 438 00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,399 Speaker 2: near future in which a lot less will be available 439 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 2: for everyone. We saw what a rising price of eggs 440 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:14,600 Speaker 2: did to Biden, and we've also seen Senator Chris van 441 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,440 Speaker 2: Holland go almost overnight from a marginal figure in US 442 00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 2: politics to one of the most famous Democrats in the nation, 443 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:22,720 Speaker 2: all because he had the modest courage to fly to 444 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,439 Speaker 2: l Salvador and call the president's use of a foreign 445 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 2: black site what it was. There will be more people 446 00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 2: like Van Holland who display courage previously unseen in a 447 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,479 Speaker 2: moment of trial. But much more than that, there will 448 00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:37,600 Speaker 2: be opportunists, those who see the wind blowing and chase 449 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 2: the approval of crowds more willing to countenance radical action 450 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,960 Speaker 2: in the streets than they were a year ago. Most 451 00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:47,679 Speaker 2: politicians and most thought leaders in the old media are reactive, 452 00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:50,760 Speaker 2: and I'm not saying that this will change, merely that 453 00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:53,359 Speaker 2: what they react to will change because of who is 454 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 2: in charge now, and because of the desperation of the 455 00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 2: times brought on by Republican policies, which is going to 456 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,560 Speaker 2: pay to target on the backs of conservative leaders as 457 00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:04,760 Speaker 2: large as the targets they'd been painting on the backs 458 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 2: of dissidence. And all of this means one thing, which 459 00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 2: is we're approaching the age of weird terror. So much 460 00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:15,639 Speaker 2: has happened in this shitty, stupid year that I think 461 00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,240 Speaker 2: we've all forgotten. Twenty twenty five opened with a military 462 00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:21,160 Speaker 2: veteran blowing himself up at a cyber truck in front 463 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 2: of the Trump Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. His 464 00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,879 Speaker 2: reasoning was based as much on the numerous head injuries 465 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 2: he'd suffered in his service as it was on his 466 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,760 Speaker 2: exposure to right wing propaganda, which convinced him that the 467 00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:35,359 Speaker 2: Democrats needed to be dealt with. But he saw things 468 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,720 Speaker 2: clearly enough to know that yet another mass shooting or 469 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,080 Speaker 2: self emulation, or even a run of the mill bomb 470 00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 2: wouldn't have garnered him or his manifesto any attention. So 471 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,359 Speaker 2: instead he picked a cyber truck and a Trump building, 472 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,200 Speaker 2: symbols of the two most viral men of our very 473 00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,800 Speaker 2: stupid era, and he blew one of those up in 474 00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,360 Speaker 2: front of the other. And by gummet, we all did 475 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:59,400 Speaker 2: pay attention for a few days, at least late last year. 476 00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:02,920 Speaker 2: And Anna, miss gunman the government believes to be Luigi Mangione, 477 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 2: was even more successful at holding our attention with an 478 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 2: even stranger attack, a brazen and igh perfectly executed assassination 479 00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,119 Speaker 2: carried out by a man with a dazzling smile and 480 00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,960 Speaker 2: the wisdom to pick the most universally hated target that 481 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:20,280 Speaker 2: exists today, a healthcare ceo. We have all watched so 482 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:24,040 Speaker 2: many mass shootings at schools, at grocery stores, nightclubs, everywhere 483 00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:27,679 Speaker 2: imaginable that they've lost the ability to shock us, But 484 00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:30,320 Speaker 2: targeted assassinations of people at the top of the food 485 00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,000 Speaker 2: chain are so rare that they can't help but draw eyeballs, 486 00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:37,200 Speaker 2: and sheer, rollicking strangeness like we saw in Vegas, has 487 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:40,240 Speaker 2: a captivating power all its own. We will see more 488 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:42,399 Speaker 2: of both kinds of attacks in the months to come. 489 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 2: The arson attempt on Governor Shapiro's home, bizarre at least 490 00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,840 Speaker 2: for the extensive damage done, might be seen as another 491 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:51,800 Speaker 2: data point on this list, But as new figures rise 492 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:55,080 Speaker 2: to prominence within new protest movements, we will see attempts 493 00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:58,359 Speaker 2: to kill them. Furious and deranged Trump supporters armed with 494 00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:00,800 Speaker 2: cars and guns and Trump branded by rocket dives will 495 00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:03,480 Speaker 2: do as they've been doing, and this part won't be new. 496 00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,200 Speaker 2: What I do expect will be new is the increased 497 00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,080 Speaker 2: threat felt by the oligarchs at the top of the system, 498 00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,800 Speaker 2: as intelligent and patient young people continue to plot ways 499 00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:15,160 Speaker 2: to go after them and the places and times where 500 00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 2: they feel invulnerable. And I also expect that editors and 501 00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:22,959 Speaker 2: journalists will continue to learn that these actions draw eyeballs 502 00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 2: more than almost anything else. And while all that's going on, 503 00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:30,200 Speaker 2: the truly unbalanced among us will find ways to hitchhike 504 00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:33,640 Speaker 2: off the well publicized turmoil coming our way and make 505 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:37,439 Speaker 2: their own confounding statements. There will be public suicides and 506 00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,920 Speaker 2: attacks utilizing weapons and tools we can't yet imagine, at 507 00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 2: least not openly on a podcast without receiving a visit 508 00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,320 Speaker 2: from some friendly Alphabet boy or another. I don't know 509 00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:51,200 Speaker 2: what exactly to expect beyond the unexpected and the very 510 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:55,320 Speaker 2: very silly. And of course, as we talk about weird terrorism, 511 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 2: I don't mean to discount the Nazi accelerationist types here. 512 00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:01,000 Speaker 2: They'll keep trying if they want to raise above the 513 00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:04,240 Speaker 2: chatter and an even more crowded media ecosystem. Even they're 514 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,000 Speaker 2: going to find ways to get weird with it after all, 515 00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:10,200 Speaker 2: and attack No One Notices isn't likely to accelerate much 516 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:13,520 Speaker 2: of anything. And I guess that's what I've got right now. 517 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,160 Speaker 2: I've got ten pages or so on what I see coming. 518 00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 2: I didn't come up with a smooth, sexy ending for 519 00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 2: this like a writer should, because I'm tired and thinking 520 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 2: about this isn't fun. But I did a lot, and 521 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,480 Speaker 2: there you are. I suppose the thing you're asking now 522 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:32,760 Speaker 2: is what the fuck do I do about it? And 523 00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:35,440 Speaker 2: you know, let's what we talk about a lot on 524 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:39,720 Speaker 2: this show. Organize with your friends, get involved, find ways 525 00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 2: to help people, take us, stop the bleed glass and 526 00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:46,640 Speaker 2: the love of God, keep your eyes open. 527 00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:52,080 Speaker 1: It Could Happened Here is a production of cool Zone Media. 528 00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:55,320 Speaker 1: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website 529 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:58,960 Speaker 1: Coolzonemedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 530 00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,800 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Can now 531 00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,040 Speaker 1: find sources for it could Happen here, listed directly in 532 00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:07,280 Speaker 1: episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.