Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: With the latest on Israel, we are waiting in Washington,
Speaker 2: and of course we're waiting around the world for a
Speaker 2: headline on hostages as Israeli forces engage in heavy fighting
Speaker 2: with Hamas a deal could emerge at any moment. We
Speaker 2: just heard from the President a short time ago, holding
Speaker 2: an unrelated event about counter narcotics at the White House
Speaker 2: before he takes off to Nantucket for Thanksgiving. The President
Speaker 2: of the United States opening with an update on this
Speaker 2: very issue.
Speaker 3: Here he is, we're working on this intensively for weeks.
Speaker 3: As you all know, I've spoken recently about it of
Speaker 3: both the premiers of Nannato and the Mirror Cutter. My
Speaker 3: team is head of the region, shuttling each happening. We're
Speaker 3: now very close, very close. It could bring me in
Speaker 3: Seni the Sausage's.
Speaker 2: Home very soon, very close. The keywords there from the
Speaker 2: President not unlike what he said yesterday at the Turkey
Speaker 2: pardoning event. On the South lawn very close. Remember he
Speaker 2: held up his seat. He was crossing his fingers when
Speaker 2: he was talking to the reporters. And here's what we understand.
Speaker 2: According to reporting at Bloomberg, this deal brokeered by Cutter,
Speaker 2: expected as soon as today, and we've been saying that
Speaker 2: for a couple of days. Realized would have essentially two
Speaker 2: phases to it would be coupled with a multi day
Speaker 2: cease fire. In the first phase would be about four
Speaker 2: days worth. Here Hamas releasing some fifty Israeli women and
Speaker 2: children held in Gaza, while Israel releases one hundred and
Speaker 2: fifty Palestinian prisoners in return.
Speaker 1: You do the math.
Speaker 2: Here Israel would release three Palestinian prisoners for each Israeli
Speaker 2: hostage released. Based on what we understand here, a second
Speaker 2: phase could unlock a lot more. He is fifty more
Speaker 2: Israeli hostages in exchange for a longer cease fire. All
Speaker 2: of this remains up in the air and is being
Speaker 2: negotiated as we speak. And that's why we're lucky to
Speaker 2: have former Ambassador Daniel freed with us. He's now the
Speaker 2: Wiser family distinguished, fell out the Atlantic Council, but has
Speaker 2: spent a career doing diplomatic work. Former National Security Council
Speaker 2: Senior directory's former ambassador to Poland, as we spoke with
Speaker 2: them a lot in the of course, outset of the
Speaker 2: war in Ukraine, and former Assistant Secretary of State for Europe. So, ambassador,
Speaker 2: thank you for making time for us here. What's happening
Speaker 2: behind the scenes right now? What are the back channels
Speaker 2: sounding like as we approach a potential deal.
Speaker 4: Well, we'll find out more after the deal is done.
Speaker 4: If it's done, about how it came about. There will
Speaker 4: be articles written about who, who did what. But we
Speaker 4: can be sure that this is a difficult, complicated process.
Speaker 4: The Israelis and Hamas are not talking to each other,
Speaker 4: They're working through intermediaries. The us IS, I expect, is
Speaker 4: involved in some way, maybe the Egyptians as well.
Speaker 5: This is a.
Speaker 4: Complicated negotiation and all it will produce is a possible
Speaker 4: temporary succession of hostilities and a release of as many
Speaker 4: hostages as the Israelis can get out. It is not
Speaker 4: a stepping stone necessarily to any wider diplomatic discussions to
Speaker 4: end this conflict. Those those have to wait. It's a
Speaker 4: decent step, and you can see the Biden administration has
Speaker 4: put a lot of effort into this initial step.
Speaker 2: When we know that we're working through a third party,
Speaker 2: essentially in the Cutter, officials work on this to what
Speaker 2: extent is the administration directly involved, the State Department directly involved,
Speaker 2: or is this a chain of communication going through Cutter.
Speaker 4: I think both. I think it likely that there is
Speaker 4: a chain of communication going through Gutter. I think the
Speaker 4: US State Department is involved talking to the Israelis, talking
Speaker 4: to the Gutties. I am confident that the US is
Speaker 4: an active player in this process. Stepping back a bit,
Speaker 4: you can see that the Biden administration and President Biden
Speaker 4: himself want to move toward a diplomatic framework to end
Speaker 4: this conflict. To do that, you have to have start
Speaker 4: and it has to be done in ways that both
Speaker 4: parties can accept. The Israelis are in no mood to
Speaker 4: stop fighting Hamas, which they believe rightly wants to wipe
Speaker 4: them out and is perfectly prepared to massacre more Israeli
Speaker 4: civilians if they can. The Arab countries would love to
Speaker 4: see the possibility of getting back to negotiations, but negotiations
Speaker 4: that don't involve a two state solution, A Palestinian state
Speaker 4: are not going to go very far. The idea that
Speaker 4: we could work around it through the Abraham Accords has
Speaker 4: been blown up. But this is easier said than done.
Speaker 4: Some of my diplomatic colleagues started out in pushing Israeli
Speaker 4: Arab Israeli Palestinian peace deals when they were young, and
Speaker 4: now they're not young. We've seen this for decades. We've
Speaker 4: gotten close before, we've never The Americans have tried and
Speaker 4: they have never landed a deal. But you can see
Speaker 4: that the Biden people want a deal, and they in
Speaker 4: President Biden's op ed and the Washing and Posy outlined
Speaker 4: some of the parameters. So the United States is looking
Speaker 4: ahead and this possible deal for hostages and a temporary
Speaker 4: cease fire could be a first step. But that's a
Speaker 4: small first step, and the steps after this get harder,
Speaker 4: not easier.
Speaker 2: Well, with regard to the next step, we're talking about
Speaker 2: a second phase potentially, and I realized this is all
Speaker 2: very tenuous that could include a longer cease fire. Ambassador,
Speaker 2: we keep hearing that a ceasefire is not tenable, that
Speaker 2: it would simply allow Hamas to reload, to reset itself
Speaker 2: in Gaza, to the detriment of the Israelis. But I
Speaker 2: wonder if you see this differently, and if you see
Speaker 2: it as the potential for the beginning of a longer
Speaker 2: term cease fire. Could this be the beginning of the
Speaker 2: end of this war.
Speaker 4: The Israelis have said repeatedly and strongly that there is
Speaker 4: no going back to the status quo before a Verse seventh.
Speaker 4: They're not going to allow Hamas to remain as an
Speaker 4: organization in Daza preparing for the next assault on Israel.
Speaker 4: That's pretty clear from them. At the same time, they
Speaker 4: are facing massive opposition and you can feel it disquiet
Speaker 4: within the Biden administration of the number of civilian casualties.
Speaker 4: It's an ugly war. The fact that Hamas started this
Speaker 4: phase of the conflict is of little help to the Israelis,
Speaker 4: who find themselves in a difficult position. The Biden people
Speaker 4: want to move ahead with a diplomatic process, and you
Speaker 4: can see that they're trying to get to some place
Speaker 4: decent after this horror. I respect what they're trying to
Speaker 4: do and I wish them every success, but it is
Speaker 4: not easy. I don't envy them.
Speaker 2: Great to have you back, Ambassador, I wish you and
Speaker 2: You're family a great thanksgiving. Daniel Freed of the Atlantic Council,
Speaker 2: former Ambassador to Poland, former Assistant Secretary of State for Europe.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. This is Bloomberg's sound on
Speaker 2: as we try to get to all sides of this
Speaker 2: story here. It's not just the economy stupid. The reaction
Speaker 2: that we've been seeing in polls recently, particularly from younger people,
Speaker 2: with regard to President Biden's foreign policy, has not been
Speaker 2: good for someone running for reelection, and that's where we
Speaker 2: want to add the voice to Spencer Kimball, the executive
Speaker 2: director of the Emerson College Polling Center, Straight from my
Speaker 2: alma mater. Spencer, it's great to have you here on Bloomberg. Welcome.
Speaker 2: I know you're doing great work at the Polling Center,
Speaker 2: and you're constantly asking these questions as we make our
Speaker 2: way through the campaign cycle, and I want to ask
Speaker 2: you some more specific things about the work that you're doing.
Speaker 2: But with regard to foreign policy, with pro Palestinian protesters
Speaker 2: chanting Jennie Side outside DNC headquarters, how much of a
Speaker 2: problem could this story be for Joe Biden in this campaign?
Speaker 1: Well?
Speaker 6: Thanks, Joe, again for having me. And as you mentioned,
Speaker 6: we've had a chance to look at this issue now
Speaker 6: unfortunately for six seven weeks, and we've seen a dropout
Speaker 6: of that younger vote for Biden. College educated vote has
Speaker 6: also dropped out. And when you look at that head
Speaker 6: to head match up with Donald Trump, he now trails
Speaker 6: by four points nationally. And remember he wins the election
Speaker 6: by four and a half points three years ago, so
Speaker 6: he's got some room to make up now from this
Speaker 6: current situation.
Speaker 2: What do you make of the college educated vote and
Speaker 2: is that something that you saw coming.
Speaker 6: No, the college educated in the postgrad vote are kind
Speaker 6: of the lock in vote for President Biden. In the
Speaker 6: youth vote, the eighteen to twenty nine year olds are
Speaker 6: the ones who put him over the top. They voted
Speaker 6: for him nearly two to one. So now we're starting
Speaker 6: to see some shifting of these constituents and they're not
Speaker 6: necessarily going over to Trump. They're kind of leaving him
Speaker 6: to the undecided group, or they're looking at the Cornell
Speaker 6: West or Robert Kennedy, Joe Bidendas, Jill Stein candidacies and
Speaker 6: see if maybe one of those candidates are more in
Speaker 6: line with their policies.
Speaker 7: But right now. It's very fluid in that presidential race.
Speaker 2: I'm sure that we can get to this from a
Speaker 2: couple of different angles, but it's both sides of Pennsylvania
Speaker 2: avenue here. The Senate is something that Democrats are pretty
Speaker 2: worried about. You've been doing research on this as well
Speaker 2: in any number of races here, whether it's Shared Brown
Speaker 2: or John Tester. Is the Senate the next biggest concern
Speaker 2: or is it the greatest concern for Democrats when you
Speaker 2: start looking at these elections coming up in less than
Speaker 2: a year.
Speaker 6: Well, I think you could take a cueue out of
Speaker 6: what we saw last week in Kentucky, where you had
Speaker 6: a popular Democrat, you have a very unpopular incumbent, you know,
Speaker 6: Joe Biden, but the Democrat this hyar, was to win
Speaker 6: by five six points against the Republican. And I think
Speaker 6: what we're seeing in Ohio, at least early on, is
Speaker 6: a candidate like Shared Brown is still leading the three
Speaker 6: potential Republican candidates. John Tester is also able. So there
Speaker 6: seems to be a disconnect between with voters who are
Speaker 6: willing to split their tickets, maybe voting for Trump but
Speaker 6: then voting for the Democratic senator of course, in West Virginia,
Speaker 6: we didn't see those numbers, and that's why you see
Speaker 6: Joe Manchin step down because he saw himself trailing already.
Speaker 7: At this point, those other Democrats are still leading.
Speaker 2: As opposed to the Senate race in California, which I
Speaker 2: know you ran numbers on recently and I was looking
Speaker 2: at this, that's going to end up being a Democrat, right,
Speaker 2: It's just a question of which one, and it could
Speaker 2: end up being one of the most expensive races in
Speaker 2: the country as a result.
Speaker 6: Yeah, that's a fascinating race, but particularly the former baseball
Speaker 6: player Steve Garvey just got in the race as a
Speaker 6: Republican and he shot up to ten percent. The question
Speaker 6: is can he get Remember California's got that runoff election
Speaker 6: in jungle primary where everybody's in in the top two runoff.
Speaker 6: Katie Porter in Shift are in the lead, but just
Speaker 6: by a few percentage points. Barbara Lee and Garvey is
Speaker 6: right down there. So you got like four horses up there.
Speaker 6: We'll see if the Republican is able to get into
Speaker 6: that runoff. Otherwise you'll have two Democrats mine for Feinstein's seat.
Speaker 2: Boy, I'm sure there will be no drama surrounding that
Speaker 2: race at all. What are you seeing in New Hampshire
Speaker 2: where Nicki Haley and your last poll was surging in
Speaker 2: the Republican side. Here we talked about Democrats, but in
Speaker 2: terms of the Republican primary, this has been game on
Speaker 2: for Nicki Haley since certainly the last debate, and it's
Speaker 2: not so much for Ron de Santis. Based on your numbers,
Speaker 2: that poll got a lot of pickups. What are you
Speaker 2: seeing since then?
Speaker 6: Yeah, so Haley. So it's good news for Haley. She's
Speaker 6: up at eighteen percent. She's the alternative to Trump, at
Speaker 6: least in New Hampshire. But as you mentioned, we've been
Speaker 6: doing polls in Ohio and California and she's really at
Speaker 6: six seven percent. So in the early state she's put
Speaker 6: in the effort and she's doing better. My concern for
Speaker 6: Haley would be come South Carolina. She's still trailing Trump
Speaker 6: by thirty points, and if you lose your home state,
Speaker 6: that's generally you know, the end of the campaign. So
Speaker 6: she's going to have to really make some inroads in
Speaker 6: her home state if she wants to contend. On the
Speaker 6: flip side. Trump's numbers stay where they are, so he's
Speaker 6: still had forty nine to fifty percent up in New Hampshire.
Speaker 6: So it's almost like there's a jockeying for second underneath them,
Speaker 6: and it's important who comes in second might become the
Speaker 6: nominee in twenty twenty eight.
Speaker 2: So there's a lot of her life of reasons. Well
Speaker 2: it could also for twenty four for a lot of reasons.
Speaker 2: But in our remaining moment here, as we spend some
Speaker 2: time with Spencer Kimball from Emerson College Polling Center, this
Speaker 2: could take on a lot of different forms over the
Speaker 2: course of the next year. Is it the early states
Speaker 2: that we should be paying attention to? You mentioned the
Speaker 2: difference between Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio, for instance.
Speaker 6: Yeah, So in the nominating contest, it's we call the momentum.
Speaker 6: And so what Nicky Haley or Ron Desantus is going
Speaker 6: to try to do out of Iowa is beat expectations
Speaker 6: and then jump to New Hampshire and try to carry
Speaker 6: on some momentum into the early primary states.
Speaker 7: You know, the difficulty there.
Speaker 6: Is that Trump is over fifty percent in all of
Speaker 6: these states, so it's hard to see where that momentum
Speaker 6: will happen. But you know, magic and you know, lightning
Speaker 6: in a bottle could happen and we could see some changes. Otherwise,
Speaker 6: you're kind of looking at you know, who's the future
Speaker 6: of the party. Presuming in twenty eight we have an
Speaker 6: open seat.
Speaker 2: Makes you wonder why Joe Biden is not up on
Speaker 2: the air yet. We're going to talk about that with
Speaker 2: our panel straight ahead, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano. Big
Speaker 2: thanks to Spencer Kimball. I hope life as well at
Speaker 2: Emerson College. They're busy in the polling center not far
Speaker 2: from New Hampshire.
Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to The
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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Who was a Monday night out at mar A Lago
Speaker 2: for the new Speaker of the House. You see this
Speaker 2: Mike Johnson, according to multiple reports, dining with the former president,
Speaker 2: well at least needing. I'm sure they had to break
Speaker 2: red right, they met at mar A Lago. Of course,
Speaker 2: this follows Mike Johnson's endorsement of Donald Trump last week,
Speaker 2: bringing us back to his words in twenty fifteen, Mike
Speaker 2: Johnson said Trump lacks the character This is a quote,
Speaker 2: lacks the character and moral center we desperately need again
Speaker 2: in the White House unquote. I guess it went well
Speaker 2: enough that he's endorsed Donald Trump's reelection and of course
Speaker 2: moved to decertify the electoral results in twenty twenty. So
Speaker 2: the question is, did Donald Trump just endorse the lattered
Speaker 2: c R. Let's reassemble our panel. Rick Davis and Genie
Speaker 2: Shanzino are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick, what do
Speaker 2: you think when you hear the new Speaker following the
Speaker 2: path of Kevin McCarthy flying down to mar Alago. I
Speaker 2: realize he's been touring the country trying to raise money,
Speaker 2: but this particular meeting is significant. What does it mean
Speaker 2: for his agenda in the House.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean it's interesting to watch today some of
Speaker 8: the spin I mean, his staff are all out saying,
Speaker 8: oh no, he was down there for a fundraiser for
Speaker 8: Billy Ricus, and you know, he just happened to be
Speaker 8: in mar Alago and just happened to bump into Donald
Speaker 8: Trump and they had a short conversation. I mean, like,
Speaker 8: it's really amazing to see how he's trying to massage
Speaker 8: this as being not like a cow towing to Trump
Speaker 8: like you mentioned former Speaker McCarthy did in front of
Speaker 8: all of us. So look, I mean, you knew this
Speaker 8: was going to happen at some point in time. Marlog
Speaker 8: is the center of the Republican Party these days as
Speaker 8: far as fundraising go, and so you know, I'm not
Speaker 8: surprised that they had this opportunity. Remember too, you know,
Speaker 8: Donald Trump put his finger on the scale because the
Speaker 8: other option, Congressman Emmer for speaker, was someone who absolutely
Speaker 8: had a bad relationship with Donald Trump. And so in
Speaker 8: many of these situations, as you well know, it's not
Speaker 8: the candidate you want, it's the candidate that is less
Speaker 8: bad as the one who's running against him.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you, I wonder, Genie, with all the
Speaker 2: questions about can Joe Biden work with this new speaker,
Speaker 2: what does it say when he shows up at mar
Speaker 2: A Lago with Donald Trump about that happening?
Speaker 9: Well, you know, I think I don't know why everybody's
Speaker 9: so surprised. I think Donald Trump has done a lot
Speaker 9: since the twenty fifteen statement when Magic Mike was where
Speaker 9: Maga Mike was worried about his ethics to assure all
Speaker 9: of us that he is an ethical individual. Hence the
Speaker 9: turnabout about Maga Mike and heading down there. I mean,
Speaker 9: the reality is, this is him. He needs to do this.
Speaker 9: He's got to be out there fundraising as the news speaker,
Speaker 9: He's trying to meet donors, many of them are in Florida,
Speaker 9: not just this time of the year, but all around.
Speaker 9: And of course that requires that he not only endorsed
Speaker 9: Donald Trump as he did as you mentioned last week,
Speaker 9: but also go down there and kiss the ring of
Speaker 9: Donald Trump. It's not going to impact all. I don't
Speaker 9: believe his dealings with Joe Biden anyway than it already
Speaker 9: would have. I mean, let's not forget Mike Johnson was
Speaker 9: one of the individuals in the House pushing this preposterous
Speaker 9: legal theory. I mean, there's no other way to describe it.
Speaker 9: Even the conservatives on the Supreme Court scratch their head
Speaker 9: saying that Joe Biden didn't win the election. So I
Speaker 9: don't think it's any surprise that he goes down there,
Speaker 9: nor that he turns around based on what he said
Speaker 9: in twenty fifteen, just like Kevin McCarthy before him and
Speaker 9: kiss Donald Trump's ring, regardless of what they said about
Speaker 9: him earlier.
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk money here. That's apparently what the trip was,
Speaker 2: at least in part about Rick Davis. We know that
Speaker 2: Mike Johnson's been traveling the country and he's got big
Speaker 2: shoes to fill because Kevin McCarthy, if you don't know
Speaker 2: this about him, was a prolific and remains a prolific fundraiser. Now,
Speaker 2: remember this is we had numbers from October emerged last night,
Speaker 2: and we're going to walk through the money here for
Speaker 2: a moment. The nrcc rex says it raised five million
Speaker 2: dollars in October. That's three million shy of the d
Speaker 2: Triple C. But that also took place when there was
Speaker 2: essentially no speaker. This was the month of chaos. Some
Speaker 2: folks thought there might not be a dollar donated. Is
Speaker 2: this good news for Mike Johnson?
Speaker 8: You know, it's not horrible news in the sense that, yeah,
Speaker 8: it's not zero, which it could have been, and most
Speaker 8: of that money. The five million came via transfers from
Speaker 8: other Republican campaign accounts, so you're kind of stealing from
Speaker 8: Peter to pay Paul. You're taking it out of one
Speaker 8: of a campaign account to put it into the nrccs.
Speaker 8: And that's a standard practice. Everybody gets done for money,
Speaker 8: and RCC puts it into more competitive races.
Speaker 7: Than a lot of these guys have.
Speaker 8: So but look, I mean, it has been a great
Speaker 8: couple of months for the Republican Caucus and the House
Speaker 8: of Representatives, and fundraising i'm sure is drying up.
Speaker 1: As a result.
Speaker 8: And you take, as you said, the most prolific Republican
Speaker 8: fundraiser of anybody other than Mitch McConnell and kick him
Speaker 8: out of his job. Kevin McCarthy, something's going to happen
Speaker 8: to give, and money is the thing. Johnson is an
Speaker 8: untested speaker, both legislatively and fundraising wise, and so that's
Speaker 8: one of the reasons that he was down in mar
Speaker 8: A Lago. He's got to start earning his spurs with
Speaker 8: raising money, and too soon to tell, but by year
Speaker 8: end he has got to show progress with the NRCC
Speaker 8: for a war chest going into twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: A loll of your thoughts on what appeared to be
Speaker 2: a pretty good month for Democrats, Jeannie, the d triple
Speaker 2: CS I mentioned raised over eight million dollars has forty
Speaker 2: seven million dollars on hand. On the Senate side, the
Speaker 2: DSCC the NRSC both raised the same amount, but Democrats
Speaker 2: have significantly more on hand fifteen million compared to seven
Speaker 2: million dollars. How do you read these results from October?
Speaker 9: It's a good sign for Democrats. Of course, it's going
Speaker 9: to be a very very tough year, particularly in the
Speaker 9: Senate for Democrats, but also in the House. I mean,
Speaker 9: you know, there are seats that they are going to
Speaker 9: have to defend in both cases that make this a
Speaker 9: tough year, and so they need all that money. They
Speaker 9: were smart in the House, for instance, in the way
Speaker 9: that they did the transition from Hakeem from Nancy Pelosi
Speaker 9: rather to Hakeem Jeffries. And they have worked, by all accounts,
Speaker 9: very very closely. She like Kevin McCarthy, a prol lific fundraiser,
Speaker 9: and you want to keep those people close and build
Speaker 9: on their fundraising prowess and the connections they have. And
Speaker 9: so that's what we see. Mike Johnson out there on
Speaker 9: the Republican side trying to do. Of course, he starts
Speaker 9: out a bit behind, but I think he will likely
Speaker 9: make up. You know, I have to say in this case,
Speaker 9: I think the bigger challenge on the Republican side is
Speaker 9: not necessarily the fundraising, as critically important as that is.
Speaker 9: It's what you were just talking to Spencer about. It's
Speaker 9: the reality is that if Republicans are going to nominate
Speaker 9: people like they seem prepared to nominate out in Arizona,
Speaker 9: Carrie Lake, it's going to not matter as much how
Speaker 9: much money they have when they need to go and
Speaker 9: get these seats, and that is very very difficult. Candidates matter,
Speaker 9: and you go down tomorrow Lago, you kiss Donald Trump's ring,
Speaker 9: and you know who he is going to go for.
Speaker 9: It's an election denier. And the question is do people
Speaker 9: really want to go to the polls and and vote
Speaker 9: for a senator or representative who said that Donald Trump
Speaker 9: won the twenty twenty election. It hasn't been a winning
Speaker 9: strategy thus far. So money matters an awful lot, but
Speaker 9: candidate quality matters, and that I think is a bigger
Speaker 9: issue for Republicans who now have an election denier at
Speaker 9: the top of the House as well well.
Speaker 2: Rick, some conservative Republicans are raising money on the discord
Speaker 2: within their own conference. Look no further than chip Roy,
Speaker 2: who's out with a fundraising emails as I didn't come
Speaker 2: here to act like the Democrats, and of course we're
Speaker 2: still recovering from his stem winder on the floor before
Speaker 2: everybody left town. Here's Congressman chip Roy.
Speaker 8: I want my Republican colleagues to give me one thing,
Speaker 8: one that I can go campaign on and say we did.
Speaker 5: One.
Speaker 2: I don't know if you want to try to name one, Rick,
Speaker 2: but apparently the speaker wasn't too happy about that speech.
Speaker 2: What does that say about what he's going to return
Speaker 2: to next month.
Speaker 8: I think he's chip Roy's going to be chip Roy, right,
Speaker 8: And whether or not he can influence the rest of
Speaker 8: the caucus is I think of the limited value, right.
Speaker 8: I mean, he hasn't really been able to influence the
Speaker 8: caucus since throwing Kevin McCarthy out of the job. That's why. So,
Speaker 8: you know, uh excited in that speech because he realizes,
Speaker 8: I think for the first time in a while, that
Speaker 8: he actually doesn't have any pull. And as long as
Speaker 8: Johnson continues to pull Democratic votes for passage of important
Speaker 8: things like appropriations bills.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 8: And he'll he'll be fine, Chip Roy will lose his
Speaker 8: voice because he screams too much, and and and the
Speaker 8: Republicans will continue to pass legislation that can actually get
Speaker 8: signed by the President.
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano with us on the fastest
Speaker 2: show in Politics.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: Nice to see you, Kayley, who of course is with
Speaker 2: us for the second hour of Sound on every day.
Speaker 2: We've got breaking news, as Charlie mentioned on a couple
Speaker 2: of fronts. Actually we're going to talk about all of
Speaker 2: these with Congressman Brad Sherman to review quickly. Here the
Speaker 2: FED making news here, and it does seem like they're
Speaker 2: all singing the same tune.
Speaker 10: Yeah, essentially that they do intend to keep rates restrictive. Obviously,
Speaker 10: the conversation with the Fed very much has turned from
Speaker 10: a question as to whether or not the Fed could
Speaker 10: intend to hike rates further. It seems like they likely
Speaker 10: will not, but they're leaving the door open to doing
Speaker 10: so if they need to. It becomes a question of
Speaker 10: how long they have to keep rates high. And really
Speaker 10: the key paragraph here from the minutes is that participants
Speaker 10: judge it was critical that the stance of monetary policy
Speaker 10: be kept sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to the two
Speaker 10: percent objective, and they could proceed carefully. But the idea
Speaker 10: here is that rates could stay restrictive for some time.
Speaker 2: Yes, right, and you should see what it's like to
Speaker 2: sit near Kayley when the and it's come out just
Speaker 2: like a the right down to the seventh paragraph where
Speaker 2: the goods are thank you for that. We'll talk to
Speaker 2: Brad Sherman about that. He wears a couple of important
Speaker 2: hats for us here when it comes to foreign affairs
Speaker 2: and financial services, and in terms of geopolitics today we're
Speaker 2: waiting for a breaker. It hasn't happened yet, but the
Speaker 2: headlines are becoming more encouraging. Egypt now as a read
Speaker 2: on the terminal Egypt's Foreign Press Office citing progress in
Speaker 2: hostage talks. This is happening as we speak. The President
Speaker 2: talked about it earlier today at an unrelated event. It
Speaker 2: was a counter narcotics event he was holding, and he
Speaker 2: opened with this. You can tell how important it is
Speaker 2: to him. Here's Joe Biden from earlier working on.
Speaker 3: This intensively for weeks. As you all know, I've spoken
Speaker 3: recently about it of both the primers of Mennato and
Speaker 3: a mirror cutter. My team is headed the region shutting
Speaker 3: shuttling exchange capital. We're now very close, very close. It
Speaker 3: could bring me in Leiu Sausage's home.
Speaker 2: There soon, very soon. The word Kayley that we hear
Speaker 2: from the President not unlike what he said yesterday on
Speaker 2: the rope line, leading us to believe truly this could
Speaker 2: guess happen any minute.
Speaker 10: Yeah, we know that the Israeli cabinet is going to
Speaker 10: be assembling this evening. It does seem like the indication
Speaker 10: is this could be a decision that is announced on
Speaker 10: the side of Israel and a moss rather than coming
Speaker 10: directly from the White House. But we're essentially just waiting
Speaker 10: for news and literally, Joe, it could come any minute.
Speaker 2: Well, that's where we begin our conversation with Brad Sherman,
Speaker 2: the gentleman from California is with us. Of course, Democrat
Speaker 2: from the thirty second districts. I love California Congressman. It's
Speaker 2: good to see you as we hear from the president today,
Speaker 2: and we understand that this agreement could take on a
Speaker 2: couple of phases. I wonder your thoughts on this idea
Speaker 2: of releasing I believe three Palestinian prisoners for one Israeli
Speaker 2: hostage is that what we need now.
Speaker 5: Israel, being a democracy, is certainly very vulnerable when hostages
Speaker 5: are taken. They're overwhelming political pressures to get the hostages back.
Speaker 5: When this happened, I was not sure they would get
Speaker 5: any of them back. And when a soldier blidlid Chalite
Speaker 5: about a decade ago was part of an exchange, it
Speaker 5: was one thousand to one ratio close to that. So
Speaker 5: I think it matters a lot who is being released
Speaker 5: by Israel. And of course, some of those released a
Speaker 5: decade ago are on the front lines and planning some
Speaker 5: of the worst attacks against Israel this time. The five
Speaker 5: day cease fire I think makes sense. It's a chance
Speaker 5: to resupply and to provide humanitarian aid, and I think
Speaker 5: it shows that those who called for a ceasefire without
Speaker 5: any hostage release turned out to be wrong, because we'll
Speaker 5: get the five day sees fired with the hostage release.
Speaker 10: Well, you say, a Congressman that the ceasefire is an
Speaker 10: opportunity to resupply in terms of humanitarian aid going into Gaza,
Speaker 10: But theoretically it also is an opportunity for Hamas to
Speaker 10: resupply and regroup as well. I just wonder there has
Speaker 10: to be an offset here, right for the release of
Speaker 10: the hostages to broker this kind of pause in the
Speaker 10: fighting at the very least for a number of days,
Speaker 10: does it risk potentially exacerbating the conflict as it moves forward.
Speaker 5: This will make it more difficult for Israel to achieve
Speaker 5: its military objectives. It will create more danger for Israel
Speaker 5: Defense forces soldiers. But if fifty hostages are released, I
Speaker 5: think that's a decision in Israel will make.
Speaker 2: This would come with apparently a second phase as well, Congressman,
Speaker 2: that could see up to another fifty is hostages released
Speaker 2: in exchange for a longer ceasefire. What are you comfortable
Speaker 2: with there when we talk about a longer term ceasefire
Speaker 2: and could that be the start of a more meaningful
Speaker 2: peace agreement.
Speaker 5: Well, to get a meaningful peace agreement to Moss would
Speaker 5: have to renounce its own charter and say that it
Speaker 5: wants to live alongside Israel, rather than their current charter,
Speaker 5: which calls for them to kill every Jew between the
Speaker 5: river and the sea, between the Jordan River and the
Speaker 5: Mediterranean Sea. I think that at the same time, I
Speaker 5: think the whole world wants this violence to end, and
Speaker 5: if we could negotiate a two state solution, that would
Speaker 5: be an outstanding outcome. But I don't know how long
Speaker 5: a second ceasefire would.
Speaker 11: Last, nor do I know how that would impact Israeli
Speaker 11: military operations. But ultimately, a mosque cannot be left in
Speaker 11: control of Gaza, and being a democracy, Israel will make
Speaker 11: extraordinary concessions, even concessions dangerous to its own military, in
Speaker 11: order to get hostages out. And if those concessions also
Speaker 11: are able.
Speaker 5: To alleviate civilian suffering, that is that is a good
Speaker 5: result as well.
Speaker 3: Well.
Speaker 10: Of course, Congressmen, some of these hostages in question are Americans.
Speaker 10: We know that the administration has been working very closely
Speaker 10: in this effort. Yet we have also seen as recently
Speaker 10: as this week, polling that indicates there is a great
Speaker 10: deal of disapproval with the Biden administration's handling of this conflict.
Speaker 10: In fact, there are more that disapprove of what Biden
Speaker 10: has done in regard to this war between Israel and Hamas. What,
Speaker 10: if anything, should the administration change here? How much power
Speaker 10: realistically does it have to influence the decisions of Israel
Speaker 10: at this moment.
Speaker 5: Well, I did my own poll at my last town hall.
Speaker 5: Well over fifty percent approved of how Biden was handling this,
Speaker 5: and what was interesting is equal numbers. About twenty percent
Speaker 5: on each side disapproved, but for different reasons. Twenty percent
Speaker 5: thought he should be more pro Palestine and the other
Speaker 5: thought twenty percent thought he should be more pro Israel.
Speaker 5: And I think that that's what's reflected. Whenever you ask
Speaker 5: do people to prove they may disapprove for a variety
Speaker 5: of different reasons, but ultimately people want to live in
Speaker 5: a peaceful world. They hold the president of the United
Speaker 5: States responsible for whether things are going well in the world,
Speaker 5: and obviously things aren't going well in the Middle East.
Speaker 5: October sixth was a peaceful day and it hasn't been
Speaker 5: peaceful since. So I think when people reflect on it,
Speaker 5: they'll realize that it's not the responsibility of the American
Speaker 5: President to gather intelligence on Hamasa that was primarily the
Speaker 5: responsibility of the Israeli government, and that no president can
Speaker 5: guarantee that there aren't foreign crises. Now that this crisis
Speaker 5: has developed them, we'd feel better about Biden if it
Speaker 5: hadn't developed. But now that it's developed, the question is
Speaker 5: how well are we reacting to it? And I think
Speaker 5: the President is handling it very well, supporting Israel and
Speaker 5: at the same time trying to protectively at lives.
Speaker 2: We're spending time with Congressman Brad Sherman, the Democrat from California,
Speaker 2: with us on Bloomberg Live Today. Congressman, the matter of
Speaker 2: funding to support Israel as a whole separate conversation, and
Speaker 2: it's one that you're going to have to face again
Speaker 2: when Congress gets back into session following Thanksgiving. Your new
Speaker 2: speaker sees things differently than the White House and the
Speaker 2: Senate for that matter, and brought, of course, Israel funding
Speaker 2: to the floor as a standalone. I wonder what you're
Speaker 2: hearing if there's any path forward to get this done
Speaker 2: by the end of the year, either as a standalone
Speaker 2: or coupled with Ukraine and the rest.
Speaker 5: I think the President has an excellent package of aid
Speaker 5: to Israel, aid to Ukraine, humanitarian assistance for a number
Speaker 5: of problems around the world, and additional money to be
Speaker 5: spent at the border. I'd like to vote for it
Speaker 5: all as one bill, but if it's brought up in
Speaker 5: two or three bills at the House floor, we could
Speaker 5: pass them all separately. Biden could sign them together. What
Speaker 5: we can't see is a situation where you pit Israel
Speaker 5: aid on the one hand with domestic needs on the other.
Speaker 5: Because if we're ever in a situation where in order
Speaker 5: to vote to provide defense assistance to Israel, you have
Speaker 5: to vote to cut food stamps or the IRS or
Speaker 5: any domestic program that sets Israel up for eventually a
Speaker 5: failure in the United States Congress, and I'll point out
Speaker 5: the speaker trying to finance aid to Israel by cutting
Speaker 5: IRS audits in the view of the Congressional Budget Office,
Speaker 5: and I think almost all observers had the of doubling
Speaker 5: to tripling the cost. You don't offset the costs by
Speaker 5: reducing audits.
Speaker 10: So clearly, Congressman the House, I'm sorry to interrupt you. Obviously,
Speaker 10: the House has a lot of work.
Speaker 5: I had the second largest tax agency in the country
Speaker 5: for five years, so I have a little background and
Speaker 5: the importance of the audits. Go ahead.
Speaker 10: I know you have a lot you're focusing on in
Speaker 10: that body, and you will be when you return to
Speaker 10: Washington as a body next week. I do don't want
Speaker 10: to touch on the news of today because it relates
Speaker 10: to a subject I know that you very much like
Speaker 10: to talk about. That would be crypto. There is a
Speaker 10: deal between the DOJ, Treasury, the CFTC related to finance
Speaker 10: and CZ. That deal including CZ, who of course is
Speaker 10: the CEO and founder of that exchange, pleading guilty to
Speaker 10: criminal charges and stepping down. You think that's adequate, sir,
Speaker 10: that settlement.
Speaker 5: It might be for that particular case, but ultimately we
Speaker 5: cannot have crypto become a medium of exchange, especially as
Speaker 5: it's designed. I mean, the very name says cryptocurrency needs
Speaker 5: hidden money. And when you have unhosted wallets, when those
Speaker 5: wallets are anonymous where you cannot know your customer because
Speaker 5: the customer is just a vague number, you have a
Speaker 5: system that can prosper only if it captures the biggest
Speaker 5: market for hidden money, which is tax evasion. Not that
Speaker 5: there aren't also other important markets, sanctions of Asian drug dealing,
Speaker 5: hiding money from spouse's in the worst matters, etc. And
Speaker 5: so I don't see a need for another currency, except
Speaker 5: if you need hidden currency for all those purposes I
Speaker 5: identified when Sambank bin Freed was arrested. I pointed out
Speaker 5: that the crypto world was telling us Sambank Ban Freed
Speaker 5: was just one snake in a garden of Eden. The
Speaker 5: fact is cry a garden of stakes.
Speaker 2: Last question for you in our final moment than Congressman
Speaker 2: what should happen to.
Speaker 5: CZ I'm not involved in the details of that, so
Speaker 5: I don't really have to be.
Speaker 2: It's good to see again Brad Sherman, the Congressman from California.
Speaker 2: We thank you for being with us on Bloomberg. Never
Speaker 2: one to shy away from a common on crypto camp.
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's absolutely true, and of course there'll be a
Speaker 10: lot more conversation on crypto throughout the day to day. Joe,
Speaker 10: as at three pm, we are expecting a joint press
Speaker 10: conference with Mary Garland, of course, the Attorney General and
Speaker 10: Treasury Secretary Jannet Yellen. I would just point out that
Speaker 10: though there has been a settlement with Treasury, DJ and
Speaker 10: the CFTC. There's still an ongoing sec CANS case civil
Speaker 10: charges that have been brought against Finance and those would
Speaker 10: not theoretically be resolved by this agreement. So this is
Speaker 10: far from over, which means I'm going to keep talking
Speaker 10: about it. Yeah, make you talk about it here.
Speaker 2: You know, Nathan Deane's going to come in next substrict.
Speaker 2: We're going to get into this again.
Speaker 11: Yep.
Speaker 2: Is that is his Financial Services Committee going to do
Speaker 2: something about crypto next year.
Speaker 10: Well, they passed the bills out of committee. It becomes
Speaker 10: a question of whether the whole House is going to
Speaker 10: bring this to the floor. But of course they have
Speaker 10: a lot of other work they have to do, so
Speaker 10: I'm not sure where this is on the rank and
Speaker 10: the priority.
Speaker 2: Got to fund the government and that stuff.
Speaker 12: Yeah, thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. Make
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Speaker 2: Time at Bloomberg dot com.