1
00:00:01,840 --> 00:00:05,920
Speaker 1: This is twenty four, a weekly highlight reel from the Clay,

2
00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:10,200
Speaker 1: Travis and Buck Sexton Show featuring all things election coverage.

3
00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:13,200
Speaker 2: Let's get started. Here are Clay and Buck.

4
00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:19,040
Speaker 3: They have now admitted that the biggest case that they

5
00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:21,799
Speaker 3: are trying to bring against Donald Trump, that is the

6
00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:27,040
Speaker 3: March fourth Jack Smith prosecution related to jan sixth, is

7
00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:29,160
Speaker 3: no longer going to be able to happen on March fourth.

8
00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:31,560
Speaker 3: We told you a couple of months ago that that

9
00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,680
Speaker 3: was the way this was headed. It's now off the

10
00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:38,240
Speaker 3: calendar that that case will not start on March fourth.

11
00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:41,600
Speaker 3: So that is a major issue. There is panic right

12
00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:46,280
Speaker 3: now in the Democrat prosecutorial camps because it looks like

13
00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:51,640
Speaker 3: Alvin Bragg with his garbage New York City. The basically

14
00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:56,160
Speaker 3: business records charge may now be the first case, might

15
00:00:56,320 --> 00:01:00,720
Speaker 3: even be the only case that has brought against Trump

16
00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:04,000
Speaker 3: that is able to be completed before you're able to

17
00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:07,080
Speaker 3: vote nine months from now. That is a big deal.

18
00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:09,800
Speaker 3: Also a big deal, we told you this was going

19
00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:14,800
Speaker 3: to happen. The Atlanta criminal prosecution against Donald Trump Fulton

20
00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:19,480
Speaker 3: County Fnnie Willis is basically going up in smoke. She

21
00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:23,160
Speaker 3: had to file a response to allegations that she was

22
00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:26,440
Speaker 3: having an affair with a lead prosecutor that she hired.

23
00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:30,240
Speaker 3: Fonnie Willis has now admitted that she was involved in

24
00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:33,880
Speaker 3: having an affair with a lead prosecutor that she hired,

25
00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:38,400
Speaker 3: that she provided over six hundred and fifty thousand dollars

26
00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:41,679
Speaker 3: in taxpayer funds to. This is a man that, based

27
00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:46,320
Speaker 3: on his history, was not qualified, according to many experts

28
00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,920
Speaker 3: in the community of the Georgia legal affairs, was.

29
00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:52,000
Speaker 2: Not able to do this job.

30
00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:57,040
Speaker 3: This is I think the end of Connie Willis's tenure

31
00:01:57,160 --> 00:02:00,480
Speaker 3: as Fulton County DA in this particular case, and Buck

32
00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,800
Speaker 3: it would not surprise me if she ends up charged

33
00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:09,920
Speaker 3: with her own criminal violations associated with this charge. So

34
00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:13,600
Speaker 3: just contextualize here that March fourth out the window in

35
00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:17,000
Speaker 3: terms of a trial date for Jack Smith and now

36
00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:22,280
Speaker 3: Atlanta same day going up in smoke. If you are

37
00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,919
Speaker 3: Trump's lawyers, might want to be popping a battle bottle

38
00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:30,600
Speaker 3: of champagne this Friday because everything is now going in

39
00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:31,200
Speaker 3: your direction.

40
00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:34,800
Speaker 4: Maybe early for champagne, but I appreciate the sentiment. Right,

41
00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:35,840
Speaker 4: There's still there's still some.

42
00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:38,320
Speaker 3: Challenges out there, still challenges, but this is about as

43
00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:39,200
Speaker 3: well as it could go.

44
00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,280
Speaker 2: If you're a Trump it's you're a Trump attorney.

45
00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:44,360
Speaker 4: It's the trajectory is all good for Trump world in

46
00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,799
Speaker 4: terms of illegal stuff. But I'm a big believer in

47
00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:51,320
Speaker 4: never celebrate early because it's just so crushing when things

48
00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:53,680
Speaker 4: don't go your way after you assumed or acted like

49
00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,240
Speaker 4: they were. But here here's what I see. You know,

50
00:02:56,919 --> 00:03:00,840
Speaker 4: the Alvin Bragg decision making. We talked about this. I

51
00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:03,000
Speaker 4: think the first hour, all he has to do is

52
00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:06,040
Speaker 4: bring a case against Trump, and everything for him is

53
00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:10,240
Speaker 4: pretty much good, right, meaning Alvin Bragg benefits personally his

54
00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,720
Speaker 4: professional aspirations, and also I think ideologically he feels like

55
00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:17,960
Speaker 4: he's doing some great service by prosecuting Trump. But that

56
00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:20,720
Speaker 4: is true up to the point of does it serve

57
00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:25,200
Speaker 4: the interests of the Democrat Party overall? Fannie Willis, and

58
00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:27,040
Speaker 4: that I think there's a little bit of a question

59
00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,000
Speaker 4: mark as to whether continuing with it would serve the

60
00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:31,920
Speaker 4: interest of the Democrat Party overall. But Fannie Willis having

61
00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:36,720
Speaker 4: this whole thing now implode effectively before there can even

62
00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:39,760
Speaker 4: be the decision whether you know, if she if she

63
00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:41,680
Speaker 4: had backed off all of this and hadn't brought the

64
00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:43,760
Speaker 4: RICO and everything else and stuff came out, you'd say,

65
00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:47,520
Speaker 4: all right, it wouldn't be But she's already launched this rico,

66
00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:51,640
Speaker 4: which is racketeering case against Trump and over a dozen

67
00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:54,480
Speaker 4: other defendants. For her to back away now because of

68
00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:58,120
Speaker 4: ethical issues, she's doing Trump a service, which means that

69
00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:00,720
Speaker 4: it's no longer just a good thing for her to

70
00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:04,120
Speaker 4: have brought it. It could actually be problematic for her.

71
00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:07,120
Speaker 4: I'm always a big believer in look at incentives, look

72
00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,280
Speaker 4: at individual interests. That's gonna give you a much better

73
00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:12,400
Speaker 4: sense than just people reading the tea leaves. More broadly,

74
00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:16,200
Speaker 4: I think that for her, she has to fight this

75
00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:19,280
Speaker 4: because there's no way to back down from it now

76
00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:23,240
Speaker 4: without losing whatever she thought she gained by bringing this

77
00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:25,200
Speaker 4: insane case in the first place. You know what I mean.

78
00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:27,480
Speaker 4: She's got to fight this thing through and see this through.

79
00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:29,800
Speaker 4: But I think she's gonna lose. I think she's got

80
00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:30,480
Speaker 4: big problems.

81
00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:34,279
Speaker 3: I think you're right on that it's actually better for

82
00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:36,760
Speaker 3: Trump too. I think if she doesn't withdraw.

83
00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:40,160
Speaker 2: Because it keeps the focus.

84
00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:43,640
Speaker 3: On her impropriety and potential of legality, and we should mention.

85
00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:48,280
Speaker 3: The House Judiciary Committee has opened an investigation into Fawnie Willis,

86
00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:51,440
Speaker 3: she's going to have to testify or refuse to testify

87
00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:56,600
Speaker 3: what she might do under the Fifth Amendment on Capitol Hill. Also,

88
00:04:56,839 --> 00:05:00,760
Speaker 3: the state of Georgia has begun their own investmentstigation into

89
00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:01,400
Speaker 3: the investigation.

90
00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:02,560
Speaker 2: We've talked about this before.

91
00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:06,720
Speaker 3: If you're a lawyer and you need your own lawyers,

92
00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:09,320
Speaker 3: and certainly we've seen this happen a lot with the t.

93
00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:11,400
Speaker 4: And your lawyers. Lawyers need lawyers.

94
00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:11,560
Speaker 2: That's right.

95
00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:16,479
Speaker 3: The more legal representation is involved, a lot of Trump's

96
00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:19,039
Speaker 3: lawyers have needed to get their own lawyers. To be fair,

97
00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:21,919
Speaker 3: it's a sign that what you're trying to do is

98
00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:26,440
Speaker 3: a mess. And for the first time in a while, Buck,

99
00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:30,440
Speaker 3: I think there is a scenario where none of these

100
00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:34,600
Speaker 3: cases ever go to trial before the election, because I

101
00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:39,359
Speaker 3: think there's a possibility that Democrats put pressure on Alvin

102
00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:43,800
Speaker 3: Bragg because that case is so weak. You don't want

103
00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:48,120
Speaker 3: to lead with your weakest attack against Trump. Because what

104
00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:51,160
Speaker 3: we saw happen when these charges came down was the

105
00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:56,960
Speaker 3: March case. Everybody covered very very detailed. Every additional charge

106
00:05:57,120 --> 00:06:01,400
Speaker 3: different jurisdiction, South Florida, DC, and Atlanta that was brought

107
00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:05,000
Speaker 3: against Trump was a little bit less of a media story.

108
00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:11,599
Speaker 3: If Alvin Bragg and his procedural bookkeeping charges become the

109
00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:16,080
Speaker 3: lead punch that they throw against Trump, regardless of the outcome,

110
00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:19,920
Speaker 3: it's not, you know, ideal in any way.

111
00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:24,799
Speaker 4: No, definitely, And and there's a very i think broad

112
00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:30,599
Speaker 4: narrative challenge the Democrats have here effectively. Yeah, they say

113
00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:34,200
Speaker 4: things like a threat to our institutions and well and

114
00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:38,479
Speaker 4: the republic. But really, what Democrats have decided for a

115
00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:42,080
Speaker 4: long time now is they think Trump is crazy. The

116
00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:44,839
Speaker 4: ones who hate Trump the most actually believe that he's

117
00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:48,920
Speaker 4: not and evil. Well, yeah, crazy, he's crazy. He's crazy

118
00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:52,240
Speaker 4: and evil. What we've seen is if you're going to

119
00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:55,159
Speaker 4: make a case that Trump is crazy and as you say, evil,

120
00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:59,040
Speaker 4: you can't act like a bunch of lunatics yourself and

121
00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:03,800
Speaker 4: they are being crazy. Anyone who is observing this would say,

122
00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:06,360
Speaker 4: hold on a second. And it reminds me a lot

123
00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:08,599
Speaker 4: of all the Russia collusion stuff from back in the day.

124
00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:10,520
Speaker 4: They were saying, look at all the evil things or

125
00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:12,720
Speaker 4: the bad things Trump was doing with Russia, And anyone

126
00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:15,560
Speaker 4: who followed that said, well, why is the FBI and

127
00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:20,440
Speaker 4: the media and the Hillary Clinton campaign making stuff up, lying, colluding,

128
00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:23,480
Speaker 4: covering things up in the public like they are acting

129
00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:28,800
Speaker 4: unethically while shouting about Trump's ethics. And here the people

130
00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:30,960
Speaker 4: that are telling you Trump is so crazy he can't

131
00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,680
Speaker 4: be president and are acting like and I'm talking about

132
00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:36,920
Speaker 4: all these different prosecutors and the different pundits on TV

133
00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:39,600
Speaker 4: and the Democrats in elected office who are all saying

134
00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:42,320
Speaker 4: the same stuff. They're acting like they just broke out

135
00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:43,120
Speaker 4: of the asylum.

136
00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:47,000
Speaker 3: Think about how reckless it is if you are Fannie Willis,

137
00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:50,680
Speaker 3: you are trying to put the former president in the

138
00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:53,520
Speaker 3: United States in prison for the rest of his life.

139
00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:58,440
Speaker 3: The people that you select for this unprecedented I think

140
00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:00,680
Speaker 3: it's a witch hunt. But let's presume that you are

141
00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:07,000
Speaker 3: a prosecutor committed to justice. The level of recklessness to

142
00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:12,080
Speaker 3: hire your lover boggles my mind.

143
00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:12,480
Speaker 4: Buck.

144
00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:15,640
Speaker 3: There are tons of people out there that would crawl

145
00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:20,680
Speaker 3: over glass, who are left wing zealots in the Atlanta

146
00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:24,080
Speaker 3: area who would love the opportunity to try to put

147
00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:26,760
Speaker 3: Donald Trump behind bar for bars for the rest of

148
00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:32,520
Speaker 3: his life. So many skilled, competent, really highly talented lawyers

149
00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:35,959
Speaker 3: in the Georgia bar and you go hire a guy

150
00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:40,560
Speaker 3: who never prosecutes cases who by and large, Buck you

151
00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:42,480
Speaker 3: go look at his website. If you get into a

152
00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:46,640
Speaker 3: traffic accident, you can hire this guy, and you're gonna

153
00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:50,600
Speaker 3: go to war with that decision making process. I mean

154
00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:53,800
Speaker 3: to me, regardless of what you think about Fannie Willis

155
00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:57,160
Speaker 3: and the charges, Ultimately, as a DA you're being paid

156
00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:58,960
Speaker 3: for your judgment. You look at all the facts, you

157
00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:01,000
Speaker 3: decide whether there need to be case is broad or not.

158
00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:05,240
Speaker 3: The people of Atlanta and the people of the state

159
00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:09,280
Speaker 3: of Georgia should want her out of office now because

160
00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,920
Speaker 3: her judgment is so flawed. If you hire your lover,

161
00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:18,400
Speaker 3: I just and pay him seven hundred thousand dollars regardless

162
00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:21,840
Speaker 3: of what you think about any other situations out there.

163
00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:24,560
Speaker 3: Her judgment is so flawed. I wouldn't trust her to

164
00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:25,600
Speaker 3: prosecute any case.

165
00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:28,800
Speaker 4: She's threatening to take away people's freedom. I mean, she's

166
00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:31,200
Speaker 4: and can do so. Yes, I mean I think that

167
00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:34,880
Speaker 4: sometimes we can lose sight of this because Trump is

168
00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:39,040
Speaker 4: you know, I try to be as objective about this

169
00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:42,600
Speaker 4: as I can. I mean, the possibility of him defeating

170
00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:45,079
Speaker 4: all of these different cases which were not there yet

171
00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:47,440
Speaker 4: but it could happen. It seems almost like a superhuman

172
00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:49,360
Speaker 4: feet I'm just gonna be honest. I mean, if someone

173
00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:51,240
Speaker 4: told me that I had to beat four criminal trials,

174
00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:53,480
Speaker 4: even if I knew I was innocent in all four, yeah,

175
00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:56,200
Speaker 4: I would be worried. Yes, I'd be very worried, because

176
00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:59,800
Speaker 4: you never know. Jurys are crazy, prosecutors are unethical sometimes.

177
00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:04,200
Speaker 4: So this is this is what I think is going

178
00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:06,520
Speaker 4: to have to happen. Now. They're gonna have to find

179
00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:10,400
Speaker 4: a way to make it seem like they're not pinning

180
00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:12,640
Speaker 4: all of their hopes on the j sixth case in

181
00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:16,280
Speaker 4: DC when that's exactly what's going on. Because if they

182
00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:19,520
Speaker 4: if that becomes too much the narrative, that becomes too obvious,

183
00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:21,520
Speaker 4: then people start to say, Okay, well, if it's all

184
00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:23,640
Speaker 4: about the JA sixth case, why are these other cases

185
00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:25,840
Speaker 4: even in the mix? Why did you do this? You

186
00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:30,600
Speaker 4: ask more questions, and the whole apparatus of anti Trumpism

187
00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,400
Speaker 4: starts to crumble and they don't have any good answers

188
00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:33,719
Speaker 4: for this.

189
00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:38,520
Speaker 3: And remember now we're talking about cases potentially taking place

190
00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:44,839
Speaker 3: in July, August, September, October. Legitimately, they're not gonna I

191
00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,880
Speaker 3: don't think, based on the calendar right now that they

192
00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:51,280
Speaker 3: could start the Jack Smith case before July fourth, Right.

193
00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:52,520
Speaker 4: So you're legitate to saying something.

194
00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:53,079
Speaker 1: They don't do it.

195
00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:53,960
Speaker 2: Nobody they're gonna do it.

196
00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:56,960
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna remember Andy was Andy and I. We

197
00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:58,960
Speaker 4: didn't coordinate this beforehand. He had said what I had

198
00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:00,320
Speaker 4: said to you, I think a week or two before,

199
00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:02,080
Speaker 4: which because you say, well, hold on a second buck,

200
00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:05,559
Speaker 4: the guidelines are and you're correct, those are the guidelines.

201
00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,199
Speaker 4: But guidelines don't matter when it comes to getting Trump.

202
00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:10,839
Speaker 4: They don't care. That's my opinion, and it certainly has

203
00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:13,600
Speaker 4: been the case on everything else. That will be yet

204
00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:15,880
Speaker 4: another rubicon they will cross. I think that they will

205
00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:19,160
Speaker 4: if they can. They will bring the j six case

206
00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:23,480
Speaker 4: July August, September. They don't care because there's no law

207
00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:25,160
Speaker 4: against it. They're gonna say, we gotta do what we

208
00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:27,480
Speaker 4: gotta do. The American people need to know, and we're

209
00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:30,559
Speaker 4: all gonna sit there just saying nothing. You know. Nothing

210
00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:33,400
Speaker 4: else matters to these guys, but destroying Donald Trumps somehow.

211
00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:36,040
Speaker 3: I do think that plays to Trump's favor, though, because

212
00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:39,679
Speaker 3: it's the closer it gets to the election, the prosecution

213
00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:41,640
Speaker 3: becomes impossible.

214
00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:44,400
Speaker 2: Well not to argue is supremely political.

215
00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:47,800
Speaker 4: You have to wonder, at what point does the way

216
00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:53,000
Speaker 4: that they are prosecuting Trump maybe start to shift what

217
00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:55,080
Speaker 4: we had seen before. Remember though, the poll that was

218
00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:57,480
Speaker 4: the real, oh my gosh moment. What was that? Maybe

219
00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:59,960
Speaker 4: three months ago, four months ago, there was a poll

220
00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:04,000
Speaker 4: that showed if Trump gets convicted of a felony criminal case,

221
00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:07,079
Speaker 4: he will lose in every swing stake. All of a sudden,

222
00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:08,960
Speaker 4: there'd be this huge and we've said along, I just

223
00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:11,880
Speaker 4: don't really buy that that it would be so clear

224
00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:15,440
Speaker 4: and such a massive sea change. But the longer this

225
00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:17,640
Speaker 4: drags out, and the more absurd it is, the more

226
00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:22,920
Speaker 4: prosecutors that have ethical issues, the more people learn about

227
00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:25,520
Speaker 4: what's going on in New York City, a case that

228
00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:29,720
Speaker 4: is such a stretch that it really makes a mockery

229
00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:31,960
Speaker 4: of the District Attorney's office in New York. And I

230
00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:34,640
Speaker 4: don't say that lightly. I think it's true. It makes

231
00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:38,080
Speaker 4: the whole thing seem like a big joke. Maybe in

232
00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:41,319
Speaker 4: time it won't even matter as much if he gets convicted,

233
00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:43,959
Speaker 4: because enough people will have it. Right now, we're in

234
00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:47,560
Speaker 4: an election year and it's really turning into an episode

235
00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:49,760
Speaker 4: of law and Order with Trump starring in it. That's

236
00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:51,800
Speaker 4: what this is, because that's what matters more than anything

237
00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:52,480
Speaker 4: else for the election.

238
00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:54,800
Speaker 3: I think you can make nine months out in argument

239
00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:56,760
Speaker 3: that ultimately this come this race is going to come

240
00:12:56,760 --> 00:13:00,559
Speaker 3: down to two factors. Whether Joe Biden's age or Donald

241
00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:04,720
Speaker 3: Trump's criminal allegations have a bigger impact for swing voters,

242
00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:09,959
Speaker 3: and the Trump criminal allegations are uncertain. We know Joe

243
00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:12,520
Speaker 3: Biden's getting older and seventy five percent of people don't

244
00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:13,080
Speaker 3: think he can.

245
00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:13,640
Speaker 2: Do the job.

246
00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:16,880
Speaker 3: That to me is a That to me, is the

247
00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:18,840
Speaker 3: essence of the case which is going to be more

248
00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:23,920
Speaker 3: impactful Biden's age, dementia it appears, and mental and physical

249
00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:29,920
Speaker 3: frailty or the hail Mary. Increasingly, it seems legal challenges

250
00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:34,320
Speaker 3: being thrown upon Donald Trump and how those are all crumbling.

251
00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:36,280
Speaker 3: I think if you had told Democrats a year ago

252
00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:38,880
Speaker 3: Buck as they started to begin these charges. Remember the

253
00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:41,680
Speaker 3: first ones were filed eleven months ago in March. I

254
00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:44,120
Speaker 3: think if you had said, hey, we're going to get

255
00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:46,600
Speaker 3: to March and none of these cases are going to

256
00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:48,680
Speaker 3: have gone to trial yet a year after the first

257
00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:52,040
Speaker 3: charges were brought, they would have been in disbelief and

258
00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:53,080
Speaker 3: they would have been panicking.

259
00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:59,040
Speaker 1: If you're listening to twenty four the Year of Impact

260
00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:00,680
Speaker 1: with Clay and Bucks.

261
00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,680
Speaker 4: So far, the numbers right, the numbers look really good

262
00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:07,439
Speaker 4: for Trump, and it seems like things are moving in

263
00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:10,800
Speaker 4: the right direction. But here's what we've got twenty twenty

264
00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:14,600
Speaker 4: four matchups Quinnipiac Biden. This was just yesterday. This broke

265
00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:18,120
Speaker 4: opens up a lead over Trump in national head to

266
00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:23,920
Speaker 4: head polling. Haley leads Biden one on one, but trails

267
00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,600
Speaker 4: both of but trails when third party candidates are in

268
00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:30,360
Speaker 4: the mix. But Biden, according to this poll, clay six

269
00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:33,120
Speaker 4: point lead over Trump. What do you make of this?

270
00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:35,600
Speaker 4: Is this just an outlier or is this a turning

271
00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:36,560
Speaker 4: of the tide.

272
00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:38,240
Speaker 2: I don't think the tide's going to turn.

273
00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:42,080
Speaker 3: I think Trump is basically if you look at all

274
00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:47,440
Speaker 3: of the collective data right now, up on Biden. But

275
00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:49,920
Speaker 3: the idea that Trump is going to go out and

276
00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:53,760
Speaker 3: win by four or five points, I think nationwide is

277
00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:56,960
Speaker 3: very unlikely. I think also the idea that Biden is

278
00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,480
Speaker 3: going to go out and win by five or six

279
00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:03,440
Speaker 3: points is very unlikely this race when all is said

280
00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:05,680
Speaker 3: and done, which is why we were focusing on yesterday,

281
00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:10,320
Speaker 3: the seventh state battleground poll that came out from I

282
00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:13,720
Speaker 3: think it was Morning Consult in Bloomberg. To me, the

283
00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:16,560
Speaker 3: national polls are going to be a lot less significant.

284
00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:18,760
Speaker 3: What you really want to look at is what's going

285
00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:21,240
Speaker 3: to happen in Michigan, what's going on in Pennsylvania, what's

286
00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:25,640
Speaker 3: going on in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and to a certain extent,

287
00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:27,880
Speaker 3: New Hampshire and North Carolina.

288
00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:29,480
Speaker 2: There are about.

289
00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:32,200
Speaker 3: Forty two, I would say, states that you don't even

290
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:34,640
Speaker 3: really need to focus on, right we know who's going

291
00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:38,000
Speaker 3: to win those forty two or forty three. The seventh

292
00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:42,040
Speaker 3: state polls are the ones that are going to decide

293
00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:44,040
Speaker 3: this election. So I'm not going to pay as much

294
00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:48,880
Speaker 3: attention to the overall national polls because they don't really matter.

295
00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:54,200
Speaker 3: And honestly, Biden probably has to win nationwide by three

296
00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:59,640
Speaker 3: or four points because he trails the nationwide number overall.

297
00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:01,280
Speaker 3: And there was a poll that came out today that

298
00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:04,720
Speaker 3: I thought was interesting on a statewide basis. Buck it

299
00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:06,680
Speaker 3: had and I know, we got a lot of listeners

300
00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:10,880
Speaker 3: in Minnesota, it had Biden only up three in Minnesota,

301
00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:15,640
Speaker 3: and that to me, that Midwest individual state polling is

302
00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:19,280
Speaker 3: far more interest than whatever the nationwide polling might show,

303
00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:21,840
Speaker 3: because we know Biden's gonna win New York in California

304
00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:24,560
Speaker 3: by massive amounts, but if he's truly only up three

305
00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:28,960
Speaker 3: in Minnesota, that would provide further credence to I think

306
00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:31,760
Speaker 3: those Midwest state polls that are out there right now

307
00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:33,160
Speaker 3: that are very favorable to Trump.

308
00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:38,160
Speaker 4: One thing that comes up in this as well, and

309
00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:42,760
Speaker 4: this was singled out in the analysis that Quinnipiac put

310
00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:47,200
Speaker 4: forth as part of this poll, was the gender gap.

311
00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:48,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's getting worse.

312
00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:50,920
Speaker 4: That's the part of this that may be a little

313
00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:56,520
Speaker 4: concerning women fifty eight to thirty six support Biden. I

314
00:16:56,520 --> 00:17:00,000
Speaker 4: mean you're talking about basically a twenty point gap women

315
00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:04,200
Speaker 4: overall supporting Biden over Trump. December it was fifty three

316
00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:08,320
Speaker 4: forty one. So those numbers are moving against Trump now.

317
00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:11,280
Speaker 4: I don't know if that means this. No one knows

318
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:16,080
Speaker 4: if that trend will continue, if that stays, I just wonder,

319
00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:20,320
Speaker 4: you know, I know there's the VP option, that's jo

320
00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:22,879
Speaker 4: Let's let's have Clay talk more about that. So the

321
00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:26,479
Speaker 4: internet can explode for a couple of days. But I

322
00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:29,480
Speaker 4: think it really is on Trump actually to as part

323
00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:33,520
Speaker 4: of his campaign win back over perhaps some of the

324
00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:40,119
Speaker 4: suburban women. College educated women are a very tough demographic

325
00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:43,080
Speaker 4: for Donald Trump right now. I don't know how many

326
00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:45,760
Speaker 4: of them he can win back, but certainly there's got

327
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:48,639
Speaker 4: to be. The numbers are so the numbers are so

328
00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:50,679
Speaker 4: disparate right now between Trump and Biden on this that

329
00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,040
Speaker 4: you've got to think that even if Trump can chip

330
00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:55,200
Speaker 4: away at it by a few percentage points, that could

331
00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:57,080
Speaker 4: make the difference. I think people who are looking at

332
00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,800
Speaker 4: this election honestly at this point, I know it's months away,

333
00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:03,320
Speaker 4: but it's going to come down to a very small

334
00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:06,800
Speaker 4: It's about where you get the votes you need, not

335
00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:10,320
Speaker 4: about the aggregate number of votes nationwide. Your point about

336
00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:12,200
Speaker 4: the polling. So it's going to be very tough.

337
00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:14,680
Speaker 3: And I just wrote down and put an exclamation point

338
00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:16,720
Speaker 3: beside it, because I think this is very important.

339
00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:17,879
Speaker 2: I think you have so.

340
00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:21,760
Speaker 3: First of all, men are breaking for Trump and Republicans

341
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,200
Speaker 3: pretty substantially, right. So we talk about the gender gap,

342
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:25,960
Speaker 3: the gap is there because women aren't.

343
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:27,360
Speaker 2: I think you have to divide.

344
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:30,159
Speaker 3: If I were advising the Trump campaign right now, I

345
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:33,080
Speaker 3: think you have to divide women into two distinct categories

346
00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:37,680
Speaker 3: because I think single women are virtually lost. Now maybe

347
00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:39,840
Speaker 3: you can chip away a little bit at that, but

348
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:42,520
Speaker 3: they're going to go all in on abortion. They don't

349
00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:47,280
Speaker 3: like Trump. It is culturally not very acceptable for single

350
00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:51,200
Speaker 3: women to be very apparently Republican. And by the way,

351
00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:54,120
Speaker 3: I know there are single women listening to us right now.

352
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:56,960
Speaker 3: This is talking in generalities, right every time we talk

353
00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,879
Speaker 3: in generalities, people say, well, I'm a single woman and

354
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:01,240
Speaker 3: I love Trump or what.

355
00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:04,360
Speaker 4: Yes, this audience is going to tend to skew a little.

356
00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:07,359
Speaker 3: Pro Trump, I think, yeah, okay, and pro Republican in general.

357
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:09,480
Speaker 3: So I'm not talking about you specifically, but I bet

358
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:11,600
Speaker 3: if you're a single woman, hey, maybe we'd love to

359
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:14,080
Speaker 3: hear from you. Eight hundred and two eight two two

360
00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,400
Speaker 3: eight a two. If you're a single woman right now,

361
00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:19,480
Speaker 3: I bet you will endorse what I am saying, which

362
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:23,000
Speaker 3: is when you talk with your girlfriends, when you guys

363
00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:28,159
Speaker 3: go out, there is a pronounced anti Republican, anti Trump

364
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,320
Speaker 3: bent and I think it's directly connected to abortion. So

365
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:33,760
Speaker 3: I think it's going to be very hard to compete

366
00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:37,240
Speaker 3: with single women. They are the base of the Democrat

367
00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:41,600
Speaker 3: Party right now. Okay, married women, though, this is where

368
00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 3: and This is why people get angry at me when

369
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:47,400
Speaker 3: I talk about the VP. This is where Trump can

370
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 3: make Hay. I think if I were advising Trump right now,

371
00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 3: I would say you need to focus on married women

372
00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:56,520
Speaker 3: because I think there are a lot of married women

373
00:19:56,560 --> 00:20:00,120
Speaker 3: out there that are actually going to be willing to

374
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 3: listen to the arguments in favor of Trump. Why married women,

375
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,120
Speaker 3: A lot of them have children. And I think if

376
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:09,000
Speaker 3: you look and a lot of single women when they

377
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,639
Speaker 3: get married and when they have kids, and I think

378
00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 3: this is true of men too. You tend to get

379
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:18,680
Speaker 3: more conservative women out there that might be when they're single,

380
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:23,160
Speaker 3: comfortable with the idea of men are awful, men are

381
00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:25,119
Speaker 3: toxic masculinity.

382
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:28,719
Speaker 2: I just they might say that's icky. Then guess what happens.

383
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,119
Speaker 3: They get married, they like their husband, and even if

384
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,479
Speaker 3: they don't love their husband, they have kids.

385
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:35,159
Speaker 2: Suddenly you have sons.

386
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,119
Speaker 4: Right, even if they don't love their husband, Clay.

387
00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:40,280
Speaker 2: Don't love your husband all the time.

388
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:41,480
Speaker 4: What's going on here, Clay?

389
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:43,960
Speaker 3: This is I've been married almost twenty years, and there's

390
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:45,680
Speaker 3: lots of times I think my wife would say I

391
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 3: don't love everything that my husband's done. And I think

392
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:49,560
Speaker 3: every married woman out there would nod along.

393
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:51,720
Speaker 2: But you have.

394
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 3: Boys, and you have sons, maybe you have grandsons. You

395
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:58,400
Speaker 3: start seeing the way that they're being raised and how

396
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,440
Speaker 3: everybody is saying that they're all and you start thinking

397
00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 3: this doesn't add up, This doesn't make a lot of sense.

398
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:08,120
Speaker 3: Married women are winnable, and that is why and people

399
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:08,719
Speaker 3: get mad at me.

400
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 4: By Trump is women with married women.

401
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 3: And he can win even more with married women. I

402
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,160
Speaker 3: think you have to divide single women from married well, oh.

403
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:19,640
Speaker 4: Absolutely, he wins married women, but he doesn't win them

404
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 4: by the same numbers that Biden wins single women.

405
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,639
Speaker 3: And if you go look at the data, that's where

406
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:30,399
Speaker 3: the difference is between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. So

407
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,360
Speaker 3: that's why I think the VP makes and people get

408
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:34,399
Speaker 3: mad at me. I think you have to look at

409
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 3: Nicki Haley. I think you have to look at least Stephanic.

410
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:38,119
Speaker 3: I think you have to look at Christy Noam. I

411
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 3: would look at our friend Marsha Blackburn. I think there

412
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 3: are a lot of women out there that could make

413
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:49,479
Speaker 3: sense as VP candidates for Trump that would make the

414
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:52,439
Speaker 3: case that he needs to make to them better and

415
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 3: easier than just Trump.

416
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,919
Speaker 4: By himself, And it is worth noting that I don't know,

417
00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:00,080
Speaker 4: I don't know how much faith you all have in

418
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 4: in Frank Lunz, but he's out here saying this has

419
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:07,919
Speaker 4: cut seventeen that Biden is clearly, by the numbers, the

420
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 4: weakest incumbent since Jimmy Carter.

421
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,919
Speaker 5: We went through this in twenty sixteen. We watched Hillary

422
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 5: Clinton zoom in the polls early on and then collapse

423
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,199
Speaker 5: at the end. So this is no guarantee of what

424
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 5: happens in October and November. But Andrew, make no mistake,

425
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:27,200
Speaker 5: Joe Biden is the weakest incumbent in America since Jimmy

426
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 5: Carter in nineteen eighty. Don't forget on the Thursday before

427
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,720
Speaker 5: the election, Carter was dead even with Ronald Reagan after

428
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:37,200
Speaker 5: their one debate, Reagan beat Jimmy Carter by nine points.

429
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 5: This is a look into the future.

430
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 4: My biggest concern, Clay Well, other than the legal stuff

431
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:51,439
Speaker 4: and October surprise, shenanigans and skullduggery, is any sense of

432
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 4: Republican over confidence here. That's the thing that honestly bothers

433
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 4: me more than any other possibility here. It's like, oh yeah,

434
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 4: Biden's so weak, He's such a joke. Ninety seven percent

435
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 4: of Democrats who voted for Biden are going to look

436
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 4: at this and say I'll take him over Trump. Maybe

437
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,159
Speaker 4: more than that. I mean they're locked in right, So

438
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 4: now you're going to turn out and independence and third

439
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 4: you know, it starts to become a very complicated pool

440
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 4: that you're operating with. But it's not gonna be some

441
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 4: walk in the park no matter what, because most of

442
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:25,159
Speaker 4: this is already baked in.

443
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 3: I think the once analogy of nineteen eighty with Jimmy Carter.

444
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 3: I do think Jimmy Carter and Joe Biden is the

445
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 3: best historical analogy out there. The challenge is, I think

446
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,479
Speaker 3: in nineteen eighty people were still getting used to Ronald Reagan.

447
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 3: The nation was still becoming aware of who he was.

448
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,639
Speaker 3: And that's why a debate could have a big swing

449
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 3: in terms of the impact. So much of this is

450
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 3: already baked buck. We're gonna spend billions of dollars on

451
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 3: the campaign, both sides, Democrats, Republicans. I don't think it's

452
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 3: going to change anybody's opinion. I think this is going

453
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 3: to come down to turn out third parties, turnout in

454
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 3: third parties to me, is going to dictate who wins

455
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:06,920
Speaker 3: this election because nobody out there is suddenly going to

456
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:10,399
Speaker 3: be I don't think, oh you know what, Donald Trump

457
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 3: is different than I thought he was. Joe Biden is

458
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:16,479
Speaker 3: different than I thought he was. Most of us alive

459
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 3: today have never had a campaign where effectively we have

460
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 3: two incumbents running. Everybody has an opinion about these guys.

461
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,200
Speaker 3: That's why I do think the VP could be helpful

462
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 3: for Trump, because nobody likes Kamala. If Trump got a

463
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 3: VP that women, college educated, married women liked and felt

464
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 3: like in some way reflected them, I'm telling you and

465
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,680
Speaker 3: grab this and we'll go back to it in November.

466
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,439
Speaker 3: In nine months when the election happens, I'm telling you,

467
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,919
Speaker 3: they are going to be women in particular that are

468
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:48,919
Speaker 3: going to sit around and say, I don't like Trump,

469
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 3: I don't like Biden, they don't like Kamala. But if

470
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 3: Trump made the right VP, they might say, but you

471
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,439
Speaker 3: know what, I really like Christy Noam.

472
00:24:58,520 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 2: She reminds me of me.

473
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,439
Speaker 3: They might say, I really like people get mad, I

474
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:06,359
Speaker 3: really like Nikki Haley. She reminds me of Clay talking

475
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 3: about people who are swing voters and That's what I

476
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 3: would say to Trump too. The base is baked. People

477
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 3: are coming in on the base and they're going to

478
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 3: show up. General election campaign is about persuading people who

479
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 3: aren't necessarily fully engaged, and they often make emotional decisions

480
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,160
Speaker 3: based on how they're going to vote going forward.

481
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 1: You're listening to twenty four The Most Important Tier in

482
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:37,920
Speaker 1: Politics with Clay Travis ad Box Sexton.

483
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 3: This is from Morning Consult in ge This is considered

484
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 3: to be a very reputable poll, and I will mention

485
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 3: that the polls by and large have been reflected.

486
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 2: As you know.

487
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:55,920
Speaker 3: Trump's leads basically the exact of what we expected in Iowa.

488
00:25:56,119 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 3: A little bit lower maybe than expected in New Hampshire,

489
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 3: but still double digit win.

490
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 2: This is head to head.

491
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 3: It actually gets worse for Biden when third parties are included.

492
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,119
Speaker 3: Bloomberg and Morning Consult.

493
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 2: This is the poll.

494
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 3: Wisconsin Trump is up five, Pennsylvania Trump is up three,

495
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 3: Nevada Trump is up eight, Georgia Trump is up eight,

496
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 3: Michigan Trump is up five, North Carolina Trump is up ten,

497
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 3: and Arizona Trump is up three. Margin of air one percent,

498
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 3: So outside of the margin of air, Trump leads in

499
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 3: all seven swing states. In order to be elected president,

500
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 3: either Trump or Biden probably needs to win four of

501
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 3: the seven states. Buck, do you buy the numbers as

502
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 3: they look nine months out from election day or are

503
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 3: you apprehensive about what these numbers are telling us?

504
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 4: The reality is, we've never seen anything like this before

505
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 4: for Trump at any point that he has been a politician, Right,

506
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 4: He's never been this far out ahead. I think part

507
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 4: of this is the longer he has this lead in

508
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 4: the polls, the harder it becomes for Democrats to argue

509
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:19,879
Speaker 4: this risk to democracy thing that they always talk about.

510
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 4: He was already president, as we've discussed before, for four years,

511
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 4: and so we know that he didn't, in fact become

512
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 4: a horrible dictator. If a horrible dictator you mean a

513
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 4: booming economy, no new wars, and lots of sensible decision

514
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 4: make a decision making from the White House, then yeah, sure,

515
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 4: but clearly he is in hitler and people who say

516
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:48,400
Speaker 4: that are emotionally unstable and delusional. And so the longer

517
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 4: that he has a lead in swing states, and look,

518
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:53,679
Speaker 4: we pay attention to this every day, right, I mean,

519
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 4: we're watching the horse race as closely as anyone can.

520
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:57,920
Speaker 4: But I do think it starts to filter out into

521
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 4: the broader conversation. If he's so awful and such a risk,

522
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 4: why is he beating Joe Biden in all of the

523
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 4: places he would need to to be president, especially after

524
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 4: January sixth, when they I would assume Democrats certainly believe

525
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,440
Speaker 4: that that makes him unelectable going forward? Will January six

526
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 4: happen and he's clearly not unelectable because he is crushing

527
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 4: an incoming president in a half a dozen swing states.

528
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 4: I do think what concerns me is not only that

529
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 4: there's this still there's even more polling that shows if

530
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 4: he gets a felony conviction on the January sixth stuff specifically. Now,

531
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 4: I don't know, if you know, I don't know how

532
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 4: it will play if he gets the New York I

533
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 4: think he's going to be found guilty in New York.

534
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 4: I'm oh, this is He's going to be right, He's

535
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 4: one hundred percent guilty. Yeah, so he's going to be

536
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 4: found guilty in New York. But he's going to be

537
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 4: found guilty of a bookkeeping error, which is absurd and

538
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 4: it actually may backfire in terms of the politics of it.

539
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 4: I think I think that one backfire to the point

540
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 4: where I'm still not even one hundred percent convinced. You know,

541
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 4: Alvin Bragg wants to do it for Alvin Bragg, the

542
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 4: District Attorney of New York, but I don't know if

543
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 4: the Biden Whitehouse wants him to do it. And this

544
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 4: guy has asked me, I'm sure he wants to be

545
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 4: governor of New York or mayor of New York. He's

546
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 4: got aspirations, right. They may be saying, hold on a second.

547
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 4: You think you're helping, but you're hurting. But really, the

548
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 4: other thing that I think about, Clay, is this whole thing.

549
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 4: We're gonna talk so much about policy, and you know,

550
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 4: we hammer the border. We've been talking about the border,

551
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 4: as every re knows. Before this became the number one

552
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 4: issue in the country. We talked about it almost every day.

553
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:39,959
Speaker 4: And it may all come down to a guilty verdict

554
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 4: one way or the other in DC. That may be

555
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 4: what determines the election more than any other policy or

556
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 4: thing we can talk about, which is not the way

557
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 4: the system is supposed to work. So I'm with you,

558
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 4: though I find that hard to believe. I find it

559
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:57,239
Speaker 4: hard to think that the polls are right on that,

560
00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 4: But I also don't want to be picking and choosing

561
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 4: and saying Trump's ahead and all the swing state polls.

562
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 4: Let's ignore the if he gets if he gets convicted

563
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 4: in DC, he loses every swing state, which is what

564
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 4: the polls say right now. Yeah, and I agree with you,

565
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 4: by the way, on Alvin Bragg. I think it can

566
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 4: be an interesting situation where trying Trump is the best

567
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 4: thing that could happen for Alvin Bragg's political career. And

568
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 4: don't mistake the fact that Alvin Bragg and Letitia James

569
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 4: both probably are angling to one day be the governor

570
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 4: of New York. And so whoever can be the toughest

571
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 4: against Trump, whoever can be the baddest man on the

572
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 4: block in New York, it can be politically advantageous. But Buck,

573
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 4: I think with what we talked about, with the Egene

574
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 4: Carroll results, and with the Trump organization itself being under siege,

575
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 4: I think a lot of Americans are just writing off

576
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 4: everything that happens in New York. And I think that

577
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 4: actually works to Trump's benefit because.

578
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 3: I think a lot of people out there, if they're

579
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 3: paying attention to it at all, they say eighty eight

580
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 3: million dollars for an alleged sexual assault that there's really

581
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 3: no evidence ever happened. That's a lot of money at

582
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 3: eighty eight million dollars, and then they're trying to take

583
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 3: a three hundred million dollar or so fine from the

584
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 3: Trump organization in New York as well. I think all

585
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 3: of that kind of gets rolled in together. I don't

586
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 3: know if you agree with me on this, buck, but

587
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 3: in my experience as a lawyer, most people don't understand

588
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 3: the difference between civil courts and criminal courts. I mean,

589
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:24,719
Speaker 3: as a general public right, there are people who are

590
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 3: super plugged into what's going on in the court system.

591
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 3: But I think the idea of civil court and the

592
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 3: standard of justice and criminal court and the standard of justice,

593
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,800
Speaker 3: I think everything New York is already baked in for Trump.

594
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 3: And I think it's whether it's the Alvin Bragg charges,

595
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 3: whether it's the Letitia James, whether it's the e Gen Carroll.

596
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 3: People just kind of have the sense that New York

597
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 3: hates Trump and they're doing everything they can to get him.

598
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 3: So I would put that off to the side, and

599
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 3: I would say that's actually beneficial to Trump, because you're

600
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 3: a New York City guy a lot of people who

601
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 3: don't live in New York City just think New York's

602
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 3: a different world, right like where I live in Tennessee.

603
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 2: Buck.

604
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 3: We used to get phone calls when I was in DC,

605
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 3: Like I would answer the phone for the Congressman's office

606
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 3: and people will be like, is this Washington, DC? It

607
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 3: was like such a foreign place that the idea that

608
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 3: people live there was like you lived on a different planet.

609
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 3: That's how much of the country sees New York. I

610
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 3: think Trump's gold there. I am fascinated by how the

611
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 3: timing of the Jack Smith January sixth case is going

612
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 3: to play out, because increasingly that feels to me like

613
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 3: the entire ball of wax.

614
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 2: So to speak to your point.

615
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 3: For Joe Biden, if they can get that case, if

616
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 3: they can get that conviction, they feel like it's their

617
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 3: ace in the hole. It's going to swing the election.

618
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:48,080
Speaker 3: If they can't, what's going to change these seven states?

619
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 2: Remember it? So he doesn't have to win all seven,

620
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 2: He just has to win four.

621
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 4: One thing that we haven't discussed here is that I

622
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 4: think you and I both see this now, and who

623
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:00,240
Speaker 4: are certainly not alone in this, as they are all

624
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 4: in all in on the get a Jack Smith conviction,

625
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 4: and we're golden strategy. If that is the case, we

626
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 4: think the Jack Smith case, sorry, the Jack Smith case

627
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 4: will start when I bring this up, because the timeline

628
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 4: here of the anyone but Biden switch starts to become

629
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 4: very very narrow, you know what I'm saying. If you're

630
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 4: gonna wait until this trial happens, it's gonna stretch into

631
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 4: it's gonna take at least what six to eight weeks

632
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 4: from start. They say it's gonna be March fourth, but

633
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 4: now it's probably gonna get pushed beyond that. And assuming

634
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 4: it gets pushed beyond that and it starts happening in

635
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 4: the summer, you can't do the switch while you're waiting

636
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 4: for the trial verdict, right, that would be So maybe

637
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 4: that's the ultimate ultimate backup plan.

638
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 2: I know you think so.

639
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 4: I think they got to just ride with what they've got,

640
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 4: but they've got to try to time this out, and

641
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 4: I think they may have made at this point it's

642
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:03,719
Speaker 4: clear they went with too many prosecutions. I think that

643
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 4: that has backfired on them. I think they still hope

644
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 4: that they can turn it all around with the one

645
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:12,800
Speaker 4: January sixth, Jack Smith prosecution. I wonder if the Florida

646
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:16,839
Speaker 4: mar A Lago documents. I haven't seen specific pulling on

647
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 4: that if he was found guilty there. But it's the

648
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 4: process crime. I mean, it's another documents issue and there's

649
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:27,840
Speaker 4: no harm done, right, So you're gonna get into do

650
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 4: people really care? I don't know. I think the answer

651
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 4: is probably not.

652
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 3: So the political article was interesting because remember Buck, I

653
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 3: was on an island for a while arguing that it

654
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:38,359
Speaker 3: was going to be super hard to get these cases done.

655
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 3: There were people out there saying, Oh, they're going to

656
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 3: be able to get all these kids, and I just

657
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:45,760
Speaker 3: kept looking at it saying, I don't so. March fourth

658
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 3: is not happening. And I think this show was one

659
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,520
Speaker 3: of the first places to let you know, hey, March

660
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:54,239
Speaker 3: fourth is not happening. I mean, we're gonna be February tomorrow.

661
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:58,839
Speaker 3: There's a zero percent chance March fourth is happening. We'll

662
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 3: see when the DC que of Appeals issues its opinion,

663
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 3: and to give you a little bit of a preview

664
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 3: of how that would go, they're probably going to rule

665
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 3: to one that Trump doesn't have immunity. Then Trump can

666
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 3: appeal and ask for the entire DC Circuit Court of

667
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:18,840
Speaker 3: Appeals to hear that case, and then he can go

668
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:23,240
Speaker 3: to the Supreme Court. So even now, I don't see

669
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 3: any way that these cases are likely to start before

670
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 3: July fourth, and that is being generous. And when you

671
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 3: get to July buck and on your timeframe there, you're right,

672
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 3: it's at least a two or three month trial. Let's

673
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 3: be honest, you've got to seat the jury. You've got

674
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 3: a Trump's lawyers are going to drag it out as

675
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 3: long as they want.

676
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 2: They want to.

677
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 3: If they start the trial, they don't want it to finish.

678
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,760
Speaker 3: I mean, I think they see it as being politically advantageous,

679
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 3: especially if they could drag it out past the actual date.

680
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 3: I mean, you could see a situation where they're actually

681
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 3: racing in October to try to get a conviction to

682
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,279
Speaker 3: be the October surprise for the election. I mean, I

683
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:04,279
Speaker 3: don't think that's a crazy thing to think about right

684
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:04,839
Speaker 3: now at all.

685
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:05,399
Speaker 2: In DC.

686
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 4: It's also just as political commentators think of all the

687
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:12,440
Speaker 4: time we're going to spend on the Biden economy and

688
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:16,839
Speaker 4: the Biden border, and ultimately this may turn on a

689
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 4: bogus abuse of law prosecution and what a jury of

690
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 4: Trump's DC piers thinks that that could be the whole whole.

691
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 3: You want a crazy one to think about to buck,

692
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 3: What if one big Trump supporter got on the jury

693
00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 3: and just derailed the entire thing. I mean, if you're

694
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 3: listening to us in the DC area right now, and

695
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 3: there's about five percent of you that are Trump supporters,

696
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 3: if you could get yourself seated on that jury as

697
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 3: a Trump supporter, you could derail the entire United States prosecution.

698
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 4: Are you telling me that I should maybe look into

699
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 4: some Georgetown rentals or something coming up this summer and

700
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 4: all of a sudden, Juck Saxon with a little mustache

701
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:04,840
Speaker 4: he just grew could be on this jury. I don't know.

702
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 2: I am saying.

703
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 3: If you are listening to us in the DC area

704
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:11,920
Speaker 3: right now and you are a Republican Trump supporter, usually

705
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 3: when everybody gets that jury summons, they are like, Oh,

706
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:17,360
Speaker 3: this is the worst day of my life.

707
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:18,840
Speaker 2: I've got to go to jury duty.

708
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 3: You should be cartwheeling across your apartment, across your home

709
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 3: to get down to d C Court and try to

710
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:31,839
Speaker 3: get on that jury this fall, because you could be

711
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 3: the person who derails Jack Smith. You to remember any things.

712
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:39,440
Speaker 3: One juror to just say I'm not convicting hung jury.

713
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 3: That thing's done and they have to go back. Then Trump,

714
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 3: there's no conviction, we just need one.

715
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 2: I'd do it.

716
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 3: If I were a DC resident, I'd do everything I

717
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 3: could to get on that jury well.

718
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:52,720
Speaker 4: There, and there's absolutely no chance that they'd be able

719
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 4: to retry it after you know they could. They wouldn't

720
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 4: be able to do a retrial before the zero chance

721
00:37:57,719 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 4: of that. By the way, you and I have both

722
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 4: been DC residents at some point. So if I you know,

723
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,120
Speaker 4: there's college kids out there listening to us right now

724
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:06,400
Speaker 4: who counts DC where you don't know.

725
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 3: I do no idea who's on the jury. If you

726
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 3: can get on it, you could derail this thing.

727
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 1: You're listening to. Twenty four The Year of Impact with

728
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:18,919
Speaker 1: Clay and Buck.

729
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 4: Our friend Andy McCarthy joins us. He is at National Review,

730
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 4: a Fox News contributor, former federal prosecutor, and he is

731
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:35,360
Speaker 4: in Chicago right now watching his son play baseball. So

732
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:37,840
Speaker 4: I'm sure Clay is going to have some baseball related

733
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 4: questions for you, or you know, little league questions, Andy,

734
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 4: but I can and thank you, thank you for being

735
00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 4: with us if I can start eighty three million dollar

736
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 4: judgment against Trump. We kind of want you to give

737
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 4: us your your just your top line on that, and

738
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:56,840
Speaker 4: then we'll get to some of these other legal things.

739
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 4: It's just getting crazy, isn't it, Andy, I mean, eighty

740
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 4: three million dollar defamation judgment? How does this stuff? How

741
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 4: can the system be taken seriously when it's so preposterous?

742
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think the best way to look at it is,

743
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 6: in the first of these two trials, the issue of

744
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 6: sexual assault was actually on the table for the jury

745
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 6: to consider, and they found it, but they awarded two

746
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:30,239
Speaker 6: million dollars for it, and then looked at the defamation

747
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 6: and said three million. More so it was five million.

748
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:38,120
Speaker 6: So you have a case where the allegedly horrific thing

749
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 6: that happened was at issue. The jury found it was

750
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:44,800
Speaker 6: proved at least to their satisfaction on a low civil

751
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:50,520
Speaker 6: standard of proof, but gave a very modest award, which

752
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:54,319
Speaker 6: I think is testimony to the fact that you know,

753
00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:58,920
Speaker 6: it's a shaky story without a lot of factual support.

754
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 6: Then you to the second trial, where sexual assault is

755
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 6: not on the table. It's simply a question of damages

756
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:12,320
Speaker 6: for defamation, including one act of defamation that the jury

757
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 6: actually considered but didn't have to vote on in the

758
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:19,479
Speaker 6: in the first trial, and it's eighty three million dollars.

759
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 6: You don't even have like the sexual assault involved in

760
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:25,879
Speaker 6: the case, and it's eighty three million dollars very I'd

761
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 6: say impossible to square, but certainly very hard to square.

762
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 3: So what do you think happens there? We got asked

763
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 3: that question a lot. Obviously, Trump could negotiate alongside of

764
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 3: Egene Carroll's attorneys. Sometimes you see when somebody you well

765
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 3: know and for you thought they were not familiar. If

766
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 3: a jury gives an outlandish verdict, a lot of times,

767
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 3: the two lawyers have already set a ceiling and a

768
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 3: floor by which they say, hey, we're not going over

769
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 3: this number. We're not going below this number. That obviously

770
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:55,000
Speaker 3: didn't happen here. Do you think they say, hey, we'll

771
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:57,719
Speaker 3: take twenty million? And Trump says, okay, do you think

772
00:40:57,760 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 3: the appeal just goes on forever? And I mean, Andy,

773
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,600
Speaker 3: from a pure legal perspective, here's what I can't get past.

774
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 3: And I'm curious how you would analyze this. Even leaving

775
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 3: Trump aside, he was found liable for defamation based on

776
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:13,720
Speaker 3: in this second trial comments that he made in twenty

777
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:17,480
Speaker 3: nineteen before there had been any verdict rendered in the

778
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:20,719
Speaker 3: first civil trial. So this to me feels almost like

779
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:25,560
Speaker 3: a floating defamation. He didn't to deny the verdict of

780
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:29,280
Speaker 3: the first trial. It feels to me like the story

781
00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 3: is being reported as if Trump made comments. And I

782
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 3: believe she sued on subsequent comments, right, and that's a

783
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,280
Speaker 3: different story. But I don't understand how you can defame

784
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 3: someone for a trial verdict that hasn't happened yet. Does

785
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 3: that make sense to you? It seems very wonky and

786
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 3: wacky purely from a procedural perspective.

787
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:53,799
Speaker 6: Well, it's procedurally confusing play because the twenty nineteen defamation

788
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:56,719
Speaker 6: was tied up in a pellet litigation over whether he

789
00:41:56,800 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 6: had immunity for it, because he made the statement while

790
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:01,919
Speaker 6: he was pressed it. And here is where I think

791
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:05,720
Speaker 6: the court made an error that I think the appeals

792
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:09,359
Speaker 6: Court is going to look very hard at, and that

793
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:12,880
Speaker 6: is Trump only wanted to have one trial here and

794
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:17,359
Speaker 6: Judge Taplin insisted on having two. So I do fault

795
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:21,439
Speaker 6: Trump for not contesting the first trial, because you know, look,

796
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:23,279
Speaker 6: if you're a defendant, in a civil trial and you

797
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:25,760
Speaker 6: don't contest, it's not like a criminal trial. The jury

798
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 6: gets told that they can draw an inference against you

799
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 6: for not testifying, right, so you're almost assured if you

800
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:37,320
Speaker 6: don't participate, to lose, and any good lawyer should have

801
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 6: told them, you know, look, if you lose here in

802
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 6: the next trial, they have this doctrine that's called collateral estoppel,

803
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:45,960
Speaker 6: and you won't be able to relitigate. You know, he

804
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 6: should have participated in the first trial. But that said,

805
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 6: it should only have been one trial, and sure maybe

806
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 6: they would have been a second one anyway, because if

807
00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 6: he kept defaming her, you know, she was going to

808
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:00,320
Speaker 6: keep suing him, and at some point it would have

809
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 6: been a second trial. But it's really Kaplin's fault that

810
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 6: there were two trials, and the result of how Trump

811
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:09,360
Speaker 6: handled it, he really didn't have a defense in the

812
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 6: second trial. So it was like, I think this is

813
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:15,799
Speaker 6: like a human thing more than a legal thing. But

814
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:18,840
Speaker 6: I've always thought there's something really cathartic for a jury

815
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:22,719
Speaker 6: in finding someone guilty or finding against somebody on a

816
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 6: civil tour, and the effect of that is to kind

817
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:29,840
Speaker 6: of depress the damages, like you think that you've already

818
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:32,719
Speaker 6: struck a blow by saying the guy did it, and

819
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:35,880
Speaker 6: that has a moderating effect, I think on damages, whereas

820
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 6: here they didn't get to do that. This jury thing,

821
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 6: the only way if they decided Trump was in the wrong,

822
00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:44,880
Speaker 6: the only way they could slam him was with damages,

823
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:48,360
Speaker 6: and they really did. And on your first question, I

824
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 6: think this isn't a normal case. I think you're right

825
00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 6: that in a normal case they probably negotiate an amount

826
00:43:56,160 --> 00:43:59,879
Speaker 6: and like everybody goes home. But there's a political comb

827
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:03,280
Speaker 6: ow into this. And because it's not a criminal case,

828
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:06,800
Speaker 6: Trump has to put up the money in order to appeal.

829
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 6: He doesn't have to pay it to Carol, but they

830
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:11,840
Speaker 6: have to pay it into an escrow account. And I

831
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:14,840
Speaker 6: think part of what's going on here is if you

832
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:17,080
Speaker 6: think about this case and then you think about what's

833
00:44:17,160 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 6: coming with this judge anger On decision. When he gives

834
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 6: whatever he's going to give on the civil fraud case,

835
00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 6: where the state is asking for three hundred and seventy

836
00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:29,720
Speaker 6: million dollars, that's going to tie up a lot of trunk.

837
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 6: That's half a billion dollars. Yeah, that's going to be

838
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:36,319
Speaker 6: tied up for a couple of years while he appeals.

839
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 4: Andy, And we haven't even gotten to the criminal stuff.

840
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:41,440
Speaker 4: And I want to spend more time with you, with

841
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 4: you on that too. But the so the civil stuff,

842
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 4: it sounds like they're draining his resources and his time,

843
00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:52,360
Speaker 4: and and there's just all and also the just the

844
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 4: optics of going into court and this jury found against him,

845
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:58,839
Speaker 4: and all this stuff on the criminal side of things. Though,

846
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 4: what is the latest. I know we've talked to you

847
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:05,280
Speaker 4: about this A bunge. We always look at it seems

848
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:10,399
Speaker 4: first and foremost the January sixth trial in DC, because

849
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 4: that's the one that could be the most politically damaging

850
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 4: according to the polls. Does it look like that's gonna.

851
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:20,800
Speaker 6: Happen, Well, it looks to me like it can happen

852
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:25,880
Speaker 6: buck until at least the summer. And then to me,

853
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:29,400
Speaker 6: this is where I think I've been wrong all along.

854
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 6: I've thought that it would be so unseemly to subject

855
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:37,200
Speaker 6: him to a two to three month criminal trial as

856
00:45:37,239 --> 00:45:40,040
Speaker 6: it gets really close to the election, that there was

857
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:42,399
Speaker 6: like a certain date that if they couldn't start by

858
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 6: like X date, they wouldn't start. I now think I

859
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:49,320
Speaker 6: was wrong about that because They've blown past every single

860
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:53,440
Speaker 6: norm you can imagine to get this guy. And I

861
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:55,680
Speaker 6: just think if the you know, if it tease up

862
00:45:56,280 --> 00:46:00,640
Speaker 6: that they can't get the trial until say July or

863
00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:04,080
Speaker 6: early August, I think they're so determined to get that

864
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:06,240
Speaker 6: case to trial they would try to push it to trial,

865
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:09,320
Speaker 6: even though it's two to three months, and even though

866
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:13,239
Speaker 6: in criminal trials, unlike civil trials, the defendant has to

867
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 6: be present every day. So, you know, I hope I'm

868
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:22,240
Speaker 6: wrong about that, but I don't think anything would stop

869
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:24,040
Speaker 6: these guys if they thought they could get that case

870
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 6: to trial.

871
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 3: Okay, so Andy, let's go into the time specifically, because this,

872
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 3: to me is the crux of maybe the twenty twenty

873
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:35,719
Speaker 3: four campaign in general. Initially they were going to try

874
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:38,399
Speaker 3: to start the Jack Smith case on March fourth, that's

875
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:41,880
Speaker 3: the day before Super Tuesday. There is zero percent chance

876
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:44,320
Speaker 3: that that's going to happen. Right, We're at February now.

877
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 3: We've been saying on this show from the moment the

878
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:50,319
Speaker 3: Supreme Court took the case that dealt with part of

879
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 3: half of the charges on January sixth, Supreme Court can

880
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,760
Speaker 3: wait until late June if they want to to issue

881
00:46:56,760 --> 00:46:58,759
Speaker 3: an opinion there, I think would be very hard to

882
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:01,799
Speaker 3: start before the Supreme Court has ruled on that, to

883
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 3: say nothing of the presidential powers argument, which is currently

884
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:08,719
Speaker 3: pending before the DC Circuit and has everything frozen there.

885
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:11,239
Speaker 3: Right Supreme Court can tell take that up. Trump's going

886
00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 3: to appeal there. I now think that this New York

887
00:47:14,560 --> 00:47:18,320
Speaker 3: City Alvin braggcase may be the first to go to trial,

888
00:47:18,840 --> 00:47:20,960
Speaker 3: and that the Jack Smith case may or may not

889
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:24,840
Speaker 3: end up happening. If you were setting the over under,

890
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:26,719
Speaker 3: and I know this is complicated, I know we got

891
00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:30,040
Speaker 3: nine months until the election day basically sitting right now,

892
00:47:30,719 --> 00:47:33,680
Speaker 3: how many cases do you think of these criminal nature

893
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:36,880
Speaker 3: are going to be able to be completed, I mean

894
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:41,359
Speaker 3: completed jury, full verdict before everybody officially votes. I think

895
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:43,719
Speaker 3: election day is November fifth, if I've got that right,

896
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:46,439
Speaker 3: for twenty twenty four. If you were setting an over

897
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:48,680
Speaker 3: under right now, what would you make that number.

898
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 6: I'm still going to say one. And the reason I'm

899
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 6: going to say one is even though I think you're

900
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:58,880
Speaker 6: right that the Brag case could get to trial, and

901
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:03,000
Speaker 6: that's a shorter one. I you know, maybe I'm fooling

902
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:06,880
Speaker 6: myself on this, but I if I'm the Democrats. I

903
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:09,239
Speaker 6: don't want to start with that one. I agree he

904
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:12,440
Speaker 6: could actually beat that case, so they.

905
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:14,359
Speaker 3: Haven't been And also, by the way, I think I'm

906
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:16,640
Speaker 3: curious Andy started to cut you off. I think Buck

907
00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 3: and I have been talking about this on the show.

908
00:48:18,640 --> 00:48:21,000
Speaker 3: I think a lot of people see all of these

909
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 3: New York City cases as just kind of a big

910
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:26,799
Speaker 3: gob the glob that's all connected, even though some of

911
00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:29,279
Speaker 3: them are civil, some of them are business related, some

912
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 3: of them are sexual assault related. I think most people

913
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:34,400
Speaker 3: are kind of discounting all the New York City cases.

914
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:36,840
Speaker 3: So I agree with you that if that starts, I

915
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 3: don't think that really lands a punch because I think

916
00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:41,960
Speaker 3: it's just kind of lost in the overall New York

917
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:44,920
Speaker 3: procedural shuffle. Do you agree on that front too, not

918
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:47,719
Speaker 3: to mention the charges are less significant, Yeah, I.

919
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:49,759
Speaker 6: Would put it this way, Clay. I think it's a

920
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:52,480
Speaker 6: no lose for Trump and a potential bonanza. I think

921
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 6: if if he loses the case, exactly what you said

922
00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:59,759
Speaker 6: is true, it just like goes into the ether. It's

923
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:01,960
Speaker 6: the New York jury that had it in for him,

924
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 6: or you know whatever. But if he beats the case

925
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:07,759
Speaker 6: in Manhattan, which he could do because it's such a

926
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 6: stupid case that's going to discredit everything else in the

927
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:14,520
Speaker 6: law Fair campaign, and that would really be a coup

928
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:14,879
Speaker 6: for them.

929
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 2: I think one other question here will do it.

930
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:21,640
Speaker 3: One other question that I haven't heard anybody else ask

931
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:23,399
Speaker 3: or talk about. And you're an expert, by the way,

932
00:49:23,440 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 3: good luck to your son in this placed for the

933
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:27,960
Speaker 3: University of Chicago. I believe that's got to be amazing,

934
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:31,440
Speaker 3: incredible school to have a kid at that supports free speech,

935
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:34,080
Speaker 3: by the way, and also to have a kid playing

936
00:49:34,120 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 3: in college baseball. I'm sure you love going to those games.

937
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 3: That's outstanding, and hopefully it helps to defray the pain

938
00:49:40,600 --> 00:49:43,440
Speaker 3: of your mets never having a chance to beat my braves.

939
00:49:44,120 --> 00:49:47,000
Speaker 3: But Andy, one thing that I'm not hearing anybody ask,

940
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 3: I'm curious if you've thought about this at all. South

941
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:54,200
Speaker 3: Florida has been under the radar. What if South Florida

942
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:59,239
Speaker 3: decides to jump ahead of jan six because they know

943
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:03,800
Speaker 3: the Supreme cour is not going to rule until probably June.

944
00:50:03,960 --> 00:50:07,600
Speaker 3: And there are many different complexities there not as many,

945
00:50:07,680 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 3: it doesn't seem actual complexities with the South Florida case

946
00:50:13,000 --> 00:50:15,839
Speaker 3: that could keep the Jack Smith case that I think

947
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:19,400
Speaker 3: Democrats want to be the focal point, which is the

948
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:22,759
Speaker 3: one in DC. Is it possible that there's too many

949
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:26,719
Speaker 3: moving parts now? And the Florida case is a serious

950
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:29,480
Speaker 3: challenge in terms of the facts for Trump. But I

951
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:32,160
Speaker 3: think the jury's very beneficial. I think the judge is

952
00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:36,479
Speaker 3: very reasonable. That might last for months and box out

953
00:50:36,560 --> 00:50:41,000
Speaker 3: the potential of their being charges brought and finished in DC.

954
00:50:41,239 --> 00:50:42,760
Speaker 2: Have you thought any about that angle?

955
00:50:43,800 --> 00:50:48,920
Speaker 6: I think that Smith made a strategic error with respect

956
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:52,600
Speaker 6: to that case, which will not allow for what you

957
00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:55,759
Speaker 6: just laid out, okay, Otherwise would be plausible, and that

958
00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:58,920
Speaker 6: is if you wanted to do that kind of fast

959
00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:01,480
Speaker 6: and nasty and get it to trial. What you do

960
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:05,480
Speaker 6: is you leave the classified information counts out and you

961
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:09,319
Speaker 6: just do the obstruction case, okay, And that I think

962
00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:11,719
Speaker 6: he could have gotten to trial. The problem he has

963
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:14,600
Speaker 6: is he larded it up with like three dozen classified

964
00:51:14,640 --> 00:51:18,520
Speaker 6: information counts, and under SIPA, which is the Classified Information

965
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:24,400
Speaker 6: Procedures Act, all admissibility questions about classified information have to

966
00:51:24,440 --> 00:51:29,399
Speaker 6: be litigated prior to trial, and there are appeals. So

967
00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:32,359
Speaker 6: I think part of what's bogged that thing down is

968
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:35,080
Speaker 6: not only the ability to get access to the classified

969
00:51:35,120 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 6: documents for discovery purposes, but also just the sheer breadth

970
00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:43,680
Speaker 6: of trying to litigate all of the admissibility questions that

971
00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:48,319
Speaker 6: could possibly come up bearing on classified information documents in

972
00:51:48,360 --> 00:51:51,360
Speaker 6: the trial. It's going to be very hard. And I

973
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:53,879
Speaker 6: don't think the judge's pushing to get the case to trial,

974
00:51:53,920 --> 00:51:55,319
Speaker 6: so it's going to be very hard to get that

975
00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:55,840
Speaker 6: to trial.

976
00:51:56,239 --> 00:51:58,279
Speaker 4: Andy, you think Atlanta, sorry, if we're really doing it

977
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 4: around the world here of the legal stuff, you think

978
00:52:01,120 --> 00:52:04,279
Speaker 4: Atlanta's just basically done. I mean, because of the prosecutor

979
00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:06,799
Speaker 4: and the and the ethical issues and the whole thing.

980
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:08,279
Speaker 4: I mean, is that a non issue at least in

981
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:09,000
Speaker 4: terms of the election.

982
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:15,000
Speaker 6: It's the hardest one to gauge because there's a lot

983
00:52:15,000 --> 00:52:18,920
Speaker 6: of moving parts now, the prosecutors mired in scandal. She

984
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:21,600
Speaker 6: tried to do this big rico thing to keep together

985
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:24,440
Speaker 6: which should have been a bunch of disparate little cases.

986
00:52:25,000 --> 00:52:30,120
Speaker 6: And an overlay on this buck is that Meadows is

987
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 6: still litigating whether they can get the case transferred to

988
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:36,479
Speaker 6: federal court, which would basically start it all over again

989
00:52:36,520 --> 00:52:38,640
Speaker 6: if that happens. And I still think he's got a

990
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:42,320
Speaker 6: good chance to win on that, So, you know, I

991
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:45,440
Speaker 6: think that's very That's a really tough one to gauge

992
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:47,200
Speaker 6: at this point. There's too much going on there.

993
00:52:47,280 --> 00:52:49,719
Speaker 4: Well, but I mean the prosecutor's issues alone, is that

994
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:51,879
Speaker 4: enough that you think maybe just derails it. The fact

995
00:52:51,880 --> 00:52:54,480
Speaker 4: that I mean she's got she's got real problems.

996
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:58,640
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it derailed. It may derail her participation

997
00:52:58,800 --> 00:53:02,160
Speaker 6: in it more then it derails the case. But on

998
00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:04,880
Speaker 6: the other hand, she's the one who pushed for the rico.

999
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:08,720
Speaker 6: I mean, I think the rico's preposterous, and these guys

1000
00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:12,000
Speaker 6: never committed it. You know, you can't conspire in the

1001
00:53:12,000 --> 00:53:15,640
Speaker 6: criminal law unless it's a conspiracy to violate a law,

1002
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:18,640
Speaker 6: and trying to get an election reversed is not a crime,

1003
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:21,920
Speaker 6: so that's not really the basis of a conspiracy. So

1004
00:53:21,920 --> 00:53:25,279
Speaker 6: she tried to paper over that by invoking Rico. But

1005
00:53:25,320 --> 00:53:27,160
Speaker 6: the truth of the matter is the only thing these

1006
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:31,400
Speaker 6: nineteen people ever did together was get indicted, you know.

1007
00:53:31,480 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 6: Otherwise it's a bunch of disparate crimes committed by a

1008
00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:37,040
Speaker 6: lot of people, many of whom didn't even know each

1009
00:53:37,080 --> 00:53:40,879
Speaker 6: other or know what each other was doing. So if

1010
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:43,040
Speaker 6: she's out of the case, I wonder if it lasts

1011
00:53:43,040 --> 00:53:45,120
Speaker 6: as a rico as opposed to you know, look, the

1012
00:53:45,920 --> 00:53:48,560
Speaker 6: four people have pled guilty. They have none of them's

1013
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:51,120
Speaker 6: pled guilty to the rico right, and with respect to

1014
00:53:51,200 --> 00:53:53,359
Speaker 6: one of them, they had to make up even though

1015
00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:55,680
Speaker 6: she has like this one hundred and forty page indictment

1016
00:53:55,719 --> 00:53:58,239
Speaker 6: or whatever it is, they had to come up with

1017
00:53:58,320 --> 00:54:00,600
Speaker 6: another crime to get this person out of the case

1018
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:03,320
Speaker 6: because it wasn't you know, she couldn't plead to anything

1019
00:54:03,320 --> 00:54:05,800
Speaker 6: that was in the case. So it's a mess.

1020
00:54:07,080 --> 00:54:10,320
Speaker 3: Andy, enjoy the game, Good luck to your son, University

1021
00:54:10,360 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 3: of Chicago's baseball season, and man, as crazy as twenty

1022
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:17,360
Speaker 3: twenty four already is, I'm sure we're gonna have you

1023
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:19,480
Speaker 3: on a bunch of times breaking this all down with Forest.

1024
00:54:19,520 --> 00:54:20,440
Speaker 2: We appreciate the time.

1025
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:22,680
Speaker 6: Thanks guys, great to talk to you.