Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Joe podcast, make sure
Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. The twenty twenty two midterm
Speaker 1: elections are just a few months away, and with Democrats
Speaker 1: unable to find answers on the struggling economy, are open borders,
Speaker 1: rising crime rates, a lot of stuff, Republicans are poised
Speaker 1: to make significant gains. I think that's putting it mildly.
Speaker 1: In this special edition of Hold the Line, we'll take
Speaker 1: a deep dive into the races you should be keeping
Speaker 1: an eye on as November rolls around. Welcome to this
Speaker 1: special edition of Hold the Line. I'm Buck Sexton. Let's
Speaker 1: start with this. Biden is in free fall, the Democrats
Speaker 1: going along with them. It is a mess for the
Speaker 1: left or the Libs. Joe Biden's approval rating as we
Speaker 1: go to air here approve thirty seven percent. Okay, disapprove
Speaker 1: fifty eight percent. Those are abysmal numbers. Those aren't like.
Speaker 1: Those are rookie numbers. Get them up a little bit.
Speaker 1: Those are time to throw your hat in the ring
Speaker 1: of or rather put your hat up and retire. How
Speaker 1: about that one time to be done. Joe Biden can't
Speaker 1: get it done. That's why the numbers are going in
Speaker 1: this direction. We can all see it now. What's pushing
Speaker 1: this sentiment right American voters in the condition of the
Speaker 1: economy we got is a Fox News poll. Five percent
Speaker 1: say it's excellent, and I wonder how many of them
Speaker 1: get stock tips from Nancy Pelosi. Thirteen percent say good,
Speaker 1: they're twenty five percent poor, fifty seven percent those there
Speaker 1: are also people who are known as readers or those
Speaker 1: who pay attention. So yeah, it's bad add out there
Speaker 1: for Democrats, there is no question about it. The only
Speaker 1: questions that remain outstanding, it seems, right now as we
Speaker 1: go into this midterm election are will Republicans have a
Speaker 1: historic win in the House and will they be able
Speaker 1: to take control of the Senate. Senate race is probably
Speaker 1: going to be close, because this isn't a great cycle
Speaker 1: for Republicans irrespective of the political conditions right now, but
Speaker 1: voters that rather voters that issues care about and that
Speaker 1: the GOP handles better take a look at this inflation,
Speaker 1: which is so high in the list, Republicans are up
Speaker 1: nineteen points on that one. Border security also up nineteen points, crime,
Speaker 1: Republicans up thirteen points, even foreign policy up eight. Well,
Speaker 1: let's talk about how we got to this point before
Speaker 1: we break down some of the places where there will
Speaker 1: be key contests and hopefully some big Republican pickups. But
Speaker 1: let's see how we got here. On inflation, the Biden
Speaker 1: administration decided thing they did when they came into office
Speaker 1: really was trying to push and did push a party
Speaker 1: line one point nine trillion dollars spending packet. Now that
Speaker 1: alone is a point of some madness, obviously, because they
Speaker 1: had already gone through a period under COVID of lockdowns
Speaker 1: of trillions of dollars of additional spending. This was a
Speaker 1: really bad idea. Okay, this was a really bad idea.
Speaker 1: And what did Joe Biden want to do beyond that?
Speaker 1: He decided that he should spend five trillion additional dollars
Speaker 1: with Bill back better. So, if you think inflation comes
Speaker 1: from poor monetary policy and too much government expenditure, then
Speaker 1: you realize that the Democrats are to blame here. On
Speaker 1: the border, it's rather straightforward. The Democrats do not believe
Speaker 1: that illegal immigration is a problem. They think that it's
Speaker 1: just something to be managed. But in terms of the
Speaker 1: incentives that it should really be in purred because they
Speaker 1: view this as helpful to them over the long term
Speaker 1: for their electoral prospect. They think that the more people
Speaker 1: who come here illegally from developing countries around the world,
Speaker 1: the likelier it is that Democrats will have a permanent
Speaker 1: voting majority. They speak about this openly. This is part
Speaker 1: of their strategy. One interesting part of this, though, is
Speaker 1: that the numbers actually for Hispanic Americans are increasingly trending
Speaker 1: toward Republicans. In fact, in a lot of recent polling,
Speaker 1: you've seen that Hispanic voters in this country may well
Speaker 1: go as a majority for the Republican candidates. So that's
Speaker 1: a big deal. On crime, it couldn't be any more obvious.
Speaker 1: Democrats are the party of defund the police, of progressive prosecutors,
Speaker 1: of ending mass incarceration, and these are the things that
Speaker 1: have led to the rapid deterioration of safety and security
Speaker 1: in our cities, in our towns, even in rural areas
Speaker 1: of the country. It turns out that when you undermine
Speaker 1: the very foundation of your criminal justice system because of
Speaker 1: a panic over systemic racism and a desire to go
Speaker 1: easier on criminals. I mean, these Democrat notions could only
Speaker 1: lead in one direction in terms of defunding police and
Speaker 1: the things that the policy decisions they've made, and here
Speaker 1: we are seeing what's going on with it. And then,
Speaker 1: of course, on foreign policy, Joe Biden was supposed to
Speaker 1: be a foreign policy expert. He realized that they brought
Speaker 1: him on to the Obama ticket to be vice president
Speaker 1: because he was a steady hand on foreign policy. But
Speaker 1: what do we really know about Joe. He is on
Speaker 1: foreign policy issues the most consistently wrong person in the game.
Speaker 1: Over the last forty or so years. We saw this
Speaker 1: with the debacle of the US pull out in Afghanistan,
Speaker 1: how it was done, the actual pullout, and the decision
Speaker 1: making day to day there, and then also with just
Speaker 1: the fact that we have the biggest war in Europe
Speaker 1: since World War Two underway, the Russian invasion of Ukraine,
Speaker 1: which has not been managed well by the Biden administration.
Speaker 1: This war never should have even been able to start
Speaker 1: if there was deft diplomacy in the White House. Though,
Speaker 1: these are some of the things we're going to be
Speaker 1: looking at here as issues that are going to be center,
Speaker 1: front in center in some of these major campaigns, with
Speaker 1: just one pickup needed for Republicans to swing the balance
Speaker 1: of power in their favor. Millions of dollars are pouring
Speaker 1: into a number of key US Senate races. We'll take
Speaker 1: a look at those races to watch with commentary editor
Speaker 1: for The Washington Examiner con Carrol. Coming up. Does the
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Speaker 1: With the United States sent an evenly split fifty fifty
Speaker 1: between parties, there's a very good chance that the Chamber
Speaker 1: could flip to publican control in November. In total, thirty
Speaker 1: five US Senate seats will be contested in this year's
Speaker 1: midterm elections. The GOP needs just one pickup to change
Speaker 1: the balance of power. There are four competitive races in
Speaker 1: particular that Republicans should be keeping an eye on Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada,
Speaker 1: and Arizona. I mean, now makes sense of all this
Speaker 1: commentary editor at the Washington Examiner, mister Cohn, Carol Cohn,
Speaker 1: great to see it, Go to see you buck. So,
Speaker 1: just at the at the overview level, how's it looking
Speaker 1: for Republicans in terms of just Senate control going into
Speaker 1: this mid term? I mean, I'm seeing House percentage likelihood
Speaker 1: going to the GOP ninety percent, ninety two percent of
Speaker 1: people seem very very confident. Sen It feels like a
Speaker 1: different deal. What are you seeing, Yeah, I've seen the
Speaker 1: Republicans just not getting good candidates in the races they need.
Speaker 1: In the House. It's a lot more about the environment
Speaker 1: as more about the president's approval rating. When the Senate,
Speaker 1: it's going to come down to candidates and Republican sister
Speaker 1: not getting the candidates they need to guarantee a Senate victory.
Speaker 1: I still think they're going to pull it out, but
Speaker 1: it's going to be close. So let's take a look
Speaker 1: at some of these individual races you have In Pennsylvania
Speaker 1: seat that was or is vacated now we'll be vacated
Speaker 1: by retiring Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey, Republican Senator Pat Toomey. So,
Speaker 1: right now the race is between doctor Oz, doctor methmt OZ,
Speaker 1: known to a lot of people, and this guy John Fetterman.
Speaker 1: Feederman's ahead at fifty percent, the Ozz is forty four percent. Now,
Speaker 1: Oz got a lot of money personally, and I've got
Speaker 1: a lot of recognition because of his media profile. Why
Speaker 1: is Fetterman ahead of Ozz at this point? Do you
Speaker 1: think he can close the gap? I do think OZ
Speaker 1: could close the gap. He's going to have to have
Speaker 1: a couple of things break his way. Feederman's just a
Speaker 1: real authentic person. He's a great candidate. Oz is an
Speaker 1: okay Candidate's he's a newbie. This is his first race.
Speaker 1: But as your viewers may know, Fetterman did have a
Speaker 1: stroke on actually election night, and he hasn't had a
Speaker 1: lot of public appearances since then. In fact, he's going
Speaker 1: to have a fundraiser in Philadelphia to night, and it's
Speaker 1: gonna be really going to the first time he could
Speaker 1: see him in action, and what I'm hearing is he's
Speaker 1: not all there yet. And he even admitted himself he
Speaker 1: went to go visit some campaign workers and said I'm
Speaker 1: not back yet. So it's really going to come down
Speaker 1: to the debate and how with it Fetterman scenes at
Speaker 1: that time. If it appears that he's lost a step,
Speaker 1: Oz could definitely pull out this race, no problem. So
Speaker 1: that one is going to be obviously very closely watched.
Speaker 1: Another one, I think the one that the media focus
Speaker 1: maybe the most intense on of all these upcoming Senate
Speaker 1: races could be the Georgia Senate race. This seat that's
Speaker 1: up for grabs, well, not up for grabs. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's obviously right now in Raphael Warnock's possession, but it's
Speaker 1: gonna be Warnock versus Herschel Walker forty seven for Walker
Speaker 1: the latest polling, we could pull fifty percent for Warnock.
Speaker 1: We know it's gonna be a close one. How is
Speaker 1: Herschel doing as a candidate, and what do you think
Speaker 1: the chances are he could pull this off? What has
Speaker 1: to happen in Georgia. This is another newbie candidate, someone
Speaker 1: who's never run a race before. But even even worse
Speaker 1: than oz, Oz had a very competitive primary. He went
Speaker 1: out and debated, he went out and met with people,
Speaker 1: He interacted with the press multiple occasions, gave tons of interviews,
Speaker 1: was on talk radio, very comfortable on television. Walker's not
Speaker 1: doing any of that. He's basically bunkered down, sitting in
Speaker 1: his campaign room, not doing anything. He's not going anywhere,
Speaker 1: he's not talking to people, he's not giving interviews, and
Speaker 1: it has a lot of people nervous because he just
Speaker 1: hasn't been tested. Meanwhile, you've got war Knock out there.
Speaker 1: He's gonna raise probably more money than any other Senate candidate,
Speaker 1: and people in Georgia. Republicans and Georgia have a right
Speaker 1: to be worried. He just doesn't look like herschel Walker
Speaker 1: is so far a fighter. He's someone who wants to
Speaker 1: stay home and let the party do the work for him.
Speaker 1: Is Warnock getting a ton of donation money from out
Speaker 1: of state? We've seen that in some other some other
Speaker 1: races up to this point. Yeah, him and Abrams are
Speaker 1: getting tons of money, particularly from California. This is a
Speaker 1: seat that National Democrats really want to hold on to.
Speaker 1: It's sort of what they see as a red steat,
Speaker 1: maybe a purple steat, but it's one of the redder
Speaker 1: ones out there, and they really feel like they can
Speaker 1: win this. And then Warnock has a shot. Now we
Speaker 1: move to Nevada and the Senate race there between Adam Laxalt,
Speaker 1: who I've I've interviewed him many times. He was state
Speaker 1: attorney general there, the very sharp guy, smart guy, and
Speaker 1: I believe it was actually the roommate of Rhonda Santis
Speaker 1: do I have that. I think they bunked together in
Speaker 1: the military at one point, or maybe it was in
Speaker 1: law school. I can't remember now. And then there's Catherine
Speaker 1: Cortez Mastow, the Democrat there, she's a little ahead. Tell
Speaker 1: me in this Devata sedate race, what's going on? Well, here,
Speaker 1: you have a more blue state, you have an incumbent.
Speaker 1: This is one Republicans should not be winning. But unlike
Speaker 1: the last two races, here the Republicans have a good candidate.
Speaker 1: Lax also good like like like you said, he's smart,
Speaker 1: he's with it, he does media appearances, he's on the trail,
Speaker 1: he's out mixing it up with a ranking profile voters.
Speaker 1: He's the real deal. So in a wave year when
Speaker 1: Republicans are doing well and the economy is not doing well,
Speaker 1: Laxil's the type of candidate who can put in the
Speaker 1: work and can definitely beat the Democratic incumbent out there. Absolutely. Now,
Speaker 1: we got an interesting situation here in Arizona where the
Speaker 1: GOP primary is just going to be decided coming up
Speaker 1: here in a matter of weeks. We've got three candidates
Speaker 1: who are all pretty much in striking distance of each other. Right,
Speaker 1: We've got Blake Masters out front twenty five percent, but
Speaker 1: Mark Burne of Itch the AG is at fourteen percent. There,
Speaker 1: Jim Lamon is at eighteen percent. Now, Masters has a
Speaker 1: solid lead, but there's still some time left here, and
Speaker 1: obviously if you would only had two candidates, it might
Speaker 1: be a very different situation. What do you think of
Speaker 1: you know, what do you think of this race so far?
Speaker 1: Why has Masters been able to get out front? Do
Speaker 1: you think? Do you think he keeps that lead? I do?
Speaker 1: I do. I think Masters is a new breed of
Speaker 1: Republican along the lines of Jade Vance. All. Both of
Speaker 1: those guys are backed by Peter Teel. I think they're
Speaker 1: a strong kind of new national conservative type Republican that's
Speaker 1: a very big America first on American families and protecting
Speaker 1: American families. They're both a lot of rhetoric and policy
Speaker 1: along those lines. I think that's going to sell. I
Speaker 1: think Masters is going to pull this out, and then
Speaker 1: I think he's going to be Mark Kelly in the
Speaker 1: general election. Yeah, tell me about that. How's Kelly doing
Speaker 1: right now in terms of support Mark Kelly? I saw
Speaker 1: something that Blake Masters said that, you know, not everything
Speaker 1: can be about how I used to be an astronaut.
Speaker 1: So how's Kelly actually doing in his home state in
Speaker 1: terms of polling? Not well, He's underwater approval wise. He
Speaker 1: hasn't really staked out an idea beyond being voting with
Speaker 1: Schumer all the time. You know, unlike Cinema, who's really
Speaker 1: definitely established a brand of independence and has bucked her party,
Speaker 1: Mark Kelly has gone in the opposite direction and has
Speaker 1: basically done whatever Truck Schumer tells him to do, and
Speaker 1: that's going to hurt him in a state where you know,
Speaker 1: you have mavericks like John McKay and et cetera. And
Speaker 1: you know, sometimes think that's a little silly, but it's
Speaker 1: a brand that Cinema has embraced and is doing well,
Speaker 1: and it's something where Mark Kelly hasn't, and he's has
Speaker 1: Blake Masters or real Republican Canada is is gonna have
Speaker 1: a great opportunity to define Kelly as a national Democrat
Speaker 1: who needs to be kicked out of office. Don I
Speaker 1: always appreciate the insight, sir, Thanks for being with us.
Speaker 1: Absolutely blackay time. While national races make the headlines, it's
Speaker 1: local elections that may have the biggest impact on the
Speaker 1: lives of Americans when we come back. The founder of
Speaker 1: the seventeen seventy six Project Pack, Ryan Grdusky, joins us
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Speaker 1: While congressional, Senate and governor's races make the headlines, local
Speaker 1: elections arguably have just as much of an impact on
Speaker 1: the everyday lives of americ kids. Perhaps the most important
Speaker 1: races are those for local school boards in many ways,
Speaker 1: which said and implement the policies that kids are being
Speaker 1: taught in public schools. For more on how twenty twenty
Speaker 1: two is shaping up for America's school board races, let
Speaker 1: me turn to Ryan Grdusky, the founder of a seventeen
Speaker 1: seventy six project pack End, which is an organization that
Speaker 1: supports candidates around the country who oppose critical race theory
Speaker 1: instruction in schools. Ryan, good to see him. Hey, thanks
Speaker 1: for having me. So can you give us just an
Speaker 1: overview of why school board races which is something that
Speaker 1: I think even a few years ago people would have
Speaker 1: thought are as important as local dogcatcher There's been an
Speaker 1: awakening about this. Where does that come from? Yeah, school boards.
Speaker 1: I mean they decided a lot of things during COVID
Speaker 1: that were really impactful, like school shutdowns, like mask mandates,
Speaker 1: which people are continuing to push. San Diego County schools
Speaker 1: just announced that they're into a mask mandate comes September
Speaker 1: for students, and they also promoted a lot of superintendents
Speaker 1: that pushed from promoted critical theory throughout schools. This is
Speaker 1: what children learned, This is how they learned. This is
Speaker 1: how teachers are forced to teach him any respects. And
Speaker 1: this is also how disciplinary action is held within schools.
Speaker 1: A couple of years ago, they about a decade ago,
Speaker 1: Barack Obama sat there and said, hey, we're anything called
Speaker 1: ending the school to prison pipeline. And that allowed a
Speaker 1: lot of children who should have been notified by police
Speaker 1: officers that they had criminal conduct in school to evade
Speaker 1: being detected by police. And I'm a young man named
Speaker 1: Nicholas Cruz was never ever brought to police's attention and
Speaker 1: in any serious way anyway, and he was able to
Speaker 1: buy a gun and commit a mass shooting. This all
Speaker 1: happens through the school board process, through the superintendent process,
Speaker 1: and people have rarely ever paid attention to it. And
Speaker 1: that's why I'm very passionate about this issue to get
Speaker 1: conservatives involved and actually know who to vote for, because
Speaker 1: most superintendent elections are nonpartisan. They don't have our Republican
Speaker 1: Energy Democrat behind their name, and a lot of people
Speaker 1: drop off the ballot. They vote for president or governor
Speaker 1: or senator or maybe Congress, and then they stopped voting.
Speaker 1: They don't vote to the city councilman, or the mayor
Speaker 1: or the school board attendant. Remember, So that is why
Speaker 1: it's critical to why you should care about this issue.
Speaker 1: Have the anti critical race theory candidates for school board?
Speaker 1: Have they been making some serious gains over the last
Speaker 1: year and what are your expectations going into the next cycle. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Last year we did my pack support of fifty eight
Speaker 1: candidates and forty two one in Texas. We did fifteen races,
Speaker 1: all fifteen one. We lost some in Georgia and we
Speaker 1: won some in New York. We're looking at Florida right now.
Speaker 1: Florida is a big state. Governor to Santas is the
Speaker 1: first governor in recent times any way to endorse dozens
Speaker 1: of school board candidates, to try to get school board
Speaker 1: candidates who actually believe in his opinions and his views.
Speaker 1: And there's races across this entire country in November, a
Speaker 1: lot of big ones in California, Michigan, Rhode Island, Maryland,
Speaker 1: really really important. Georgia again, they're really important races, you know.
Speaker 1: And it's it's it's convenient because people think I'm you know,
Speaker 1: I live in a red state or red county, I'm not.
Speaker 1: I don't have to worry. You know, my kids are
Speaker 1: completely fine in my area is completely fine. But but
Speaker 1: what Governor Santas understands, it's in red county America, It's
Speaker 1: in red state America. It's not something that is that's hidden,
Speaker 1: you know, beyond the pale. And a lot of governors, unfortunately,
Speaker 1: who could do more. I have not done enough. And
Speaker 1: a lot of school board members and superintendents have not
Speaker 1: been pushed out who are really support of this idea.
Speaker 1: One of the give you a perfect example. One of
Speaker 1: the races that we're looking at right now is Indian
Speaker 1: Falls County, Florida, perfectly Republican county. Voted for Donald Trump twice,
Speaker 1: voted for Romney, John McCain, George W. Bush twice, Republican
Speaker 1: county right now, in their school, in their school platform,
Speaker 1: it says that they're going to eliminate disparities in classrooms,
Speaker 1: removal based on race and ethnic subgroups. What does that mean?
Speaker 1: That means that they're trying to make all kids who
Speaker 1: are suspended from schools, black, Hispanic, white, exactly the same.
Speaker 1: Nothing in life is exactly the same. And with a
Speaker 1: lot of kids going you know, who are black and
Speaker 1: Hispanic being who shouldn't been suspended, they're creating alternatives from suspension,
Speaker 1: so that way black and Hispanic kids who should be
Speaker 1: suspended should be me being notified for the police that
Speaker 1: they have criminal behavior, are looking at alternatives to suspension.
Speaker 1: White children, they are who should be suspended, are being
Speaker 1: suspended because the white number needs to be high enough
Speaker 1: to match blackness back numbers. We're seeing this right now
Speaker 1: in San Francisco, which we saw the removal three school
Speaker 1: board members in America's most liberal city. Sixty five percent
Speaker 1: of Black students in San Francisco are chronically absent, twenty
Speaker 1: seven percent are proficient in reading, forty percent are proficient
Speaker 1: in math, and yet graduation rates are at eighty seven
Speaker 1: percent for black students in San Francisco public schools. That
Speaker 1: is not because they are able to read, write, due math,
Speaker 1: or they are you know, an investment in an educated
Speaker 1: workforce into the future. This is really a complete loss
Speaker 1: of their ability. Is that there be extremely functioning adults
Speaker 1: in the best possible way and fully capable of getting
Speaker 1: a great job. Hispanic numbers are not as high, but very,
Speaker 1: very high at the same exact amount, and yet fifty
Speaker 1: percents they'll go to college. This is a dumbing down
Speaker 1: on our standards, it's a dumbing down of our workforce,
Speaker 1: and it's a future that's very, very hard for a
Speaker 1: lot of people to grass where it's easy people to
Speaker 1: victims because they are being victims from the early age
Speaker 1: of going to a grammar school and or a public
Speaker 1: elementary school and being pushed through simply because you have
Speaker 1: to keep quotas very high. You mentioned Florida Governor of Scientists,
Speaker 1: Florida's Governor of scientists endorsing board school board candidates. I'm
Speaker 1: just wondering, why haven't governors done that, and are you
Speaker 1: expecting that there'll be more Republican governors who follow suit well,
Speaker 1: because I mean, in my experience, every time that I
Speaker 1: got involved in a school board election, I was politicizing
Speaker 1: education because you know, teachers unions have never politicized education.
Speaker 1: And I think that a lot of people thought it
Speaker 1: was just beyond the pale that a governor care right
Speaker 1: an executive order or pass a bill and that was
Speaker 1: good enough, or they could, you know, even appoint people
Speaker 1: who are you know, governor youngcan in Virginia has now
Speaker 1: appointed people who are part of the statewide Virginia school
Speaker 1: system that are very much against the equity, against against
Speaker 1: the critical theory version of equity. The previous Democratic governor
Speaker 1: had school a statewide school program that was very much
Speaker 1: a promoting equity, which which has cause a lot of
Speaker 1: these problems. So I think some governors are really grasping
Speaker 1: it or understanding it. But I don't know if any
Speaker 1: of yet sat there and have jumped jumped into the
Speaker 1: school board races. Governor Schmidt, you know, Oklahoma has endorsed
Speaker 1: and campaign on behalf of a statewide superintendent, which is
Speaker 1: a rare position that meant not many states have. And
Speaker 1: he's working, you know, with a man named Ryan Walters,
Speaker 1: who we've also at seventeen sent project backs also endorsed
Speaker 1: for statewide superintendent of education. But aside from those very
Speaker 1: rare cases, a lot of them are still not understanding
Speaker 1: how detrimental the system is right now towards young people.
Speaker 1: And Ryan, you know, you understand these races and are
Speaker 1: and are involved in trying to get people to become
Speaker 1: involved themselves. What is it require if someone's watching this,
Speaker 1: say you know what I want to get into the
Speaker 1: school board race in my county, in my town district,
Speaker 1: whatever it may be. What do you what's required? How
Speaker 1: do they do it? Well? I mean you just file
Speaker 1: a run. I mean anyone can file to run, and
Speaker 1: every state it's different, sometimes require signatures. Some I think
Speaker 1: it's just putting some money, like five dollars down to
Speaker 1: get on the ballot. It's not very complicated, and running
Speaker 1: for school board is not as expensive obviously is running
Speaker 1: for state legislature or Congress. You can probably run with
Speaker 1: just a few thousand dollars if you're in a rural district,
Speaker 1: or maybe fifth up to fifty thousand dollars in a
Speaker 1: more urban or suburban district. The bigger thing is is
Speaker 1: that most people are not going to run there, but
Speaker 1: they are going to vote. So what I would always
Speaker 1: recommend a vote or is this vote from the bottom
Speaker 1: of the ballot up most of the vote for the
Speaker 1: governor or the senator, and they just forget to vote
Speaker 1: down ballot, vote at the bottom and then work your
Speaker 1: way up and be very well informed of who you know.
Speaker 1: Your teacher's union is supporting because they always endorse public
Speaker 1: school candidate super school board candidates look at who maybe
Speaker 1: some local politicians have indorsed. That's always very, very important.
Speaker 1: But also school board candidates are all year long. The
Speaker 1: Florida elections are August twenty third, Primary day, and if
Speaker 1: you get over fifty percent, you don't have a November election.
Speaker 1: So primary day in the case of that's the whole
Speaker 1: kit and caboodle. In many of these races, they won't
Speaker 1: have an election come November, so you need to find
Speaker 1: out when these dates are and actually vote on them
Speaker 1: when the election matters. Florida does not have a competitive
Speaker 1: Republican governor or Senate primary, so a lot of people
Speaker 1: are not looking to vote. They feel like they don't
Speaker 1: have any too. But your school board is on the
Speaker 1: ballot in Florida on primary in August twenty third and
Speaker 1: most of these counties, and there will not be another
Speaker 1: chance to vote for them come November. Ryan Gerdusky, always illuminating, sir,
Speaker 1: thanks for being with us. Thank you. We'll be right
Speaker 1: back with more of this special edition of Hold the Line.
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Speaker 1: As we get closer to the midterm elections, it remains
Speaker 1: likely that a red wave is going to sweep over
Speaker 1: the House of Representatives. None of the Republicans, but Democrats
Speaker 1: are now upset with the way the country is moving
Speaker 1: backwards under President Biden, plumbting approval ratings inflation through the roof.
Speaker 1: So well we see some Democratic voters jump ship and
Speaker 1: join the right and be in the rights election day.
Speaker 1: I mean, now to discuss c of American majority, Ned,
Speaker 1: Ryan my man, Ned, how are you doing doing well? Buck?
Speaker 1: Good to be back with you. So let's let's just
Speaker 1: let's set the table here. Okay, going into we talk
Speaker 1: about the Senate. Senate looks like a very close House Representatives.
Speaker 1: We gotta win. If we don't, I mean, why are
Speaker 1: we even showing up to pretend Republican party matters? But
Speaker 1: how much do we have to win by? I mean,
Speaker 1: here's a graphic showing the current House balance of power.
Speaker 1: Democrats two twenty, Republicans two eleven, need two eighteen for control.
Speaker 1: What's your target, Ned, what are we trying to get to? Well,
Speaker 1: first of all, Buck, you're right, if we do not
Speaker 1: take the majority back in the House in a year
Speaker 1: like twenty twenty two, and all the dynamics are in
Speaker 1: our favor, again, this is a political that goes back
Speaker 1: to really twenty ten. But would I would tell people
Speaker 1: for perspective. I've seen recent approval polls with Biden's approval
Speaker 1: in the low thirties, and right before Democrats got wiped
Speaker 1: out in the twenty ten mid terms, Obama was about
Speaker 1: mid forty forty four point seven. So when a president
Speaker 1: is that far underwater, the party in power in the
Speaker 1: White Houses that far under water, it does not bode well.
Speaker 1: So we've really got to gain just a handful of
Speaker 1: seats to take the majority back. But I don't want
Speaker 1: to settle for that Buck. I think we need to
Speaker 1: go for forty or fifty, and I think that's very
Speaker 1: doable if you look at some of these these districts,
Speaker 1: and I've even been saying this in a variety of places, Buck,
Speaker 1: based off what I saw in Virginia, and again that's
Speaker 1: where I'm at. I'm in Loudon County, a state that
Speaker 1: Biden won by ten points in twenty twenty, young Ken
Speaker 1: wins by two, and I want people to look at
Speaker 1: that and realize, I think in these mid terms, anything
Speaker 1: any of the new districts, and there's about forty five
Speaker 1: Democratic district that are Biden plus twelve or less. I
Speaker 1: think all forty five of those are absolutely in play.
Speaker 1: That's remarkable. I mean, that would be a red wave
Speaker 1: the likes of which we have not seen in a
Speaker 1: long time, and you could have Republicans in a position
Speaker 1: of power in the House that would go back to
Speaker 1: historic proportions, right, all time proportions. Here's a chart made
Speaker 1: from Real Clear Politics that shows the generic congressional vote
Speaker 1: from July of last year to July of this year.
Speaker 1: The generic vote has kind of done a one eighty
Speaker 1: in favor of Republicans. I mean, the based on the data, ever,
Speaker 1: can assume the economy inflation huge part of this. But
Speaker 1: are there any other things that are really moving this
Speaker 1: in the direction of is just the realization that Joe
Speaker 1: Biden and his party haven't gotten anything done? I mean,
Speaker 1: what are the key indicators here, or rather the you know,
Speaker 1: the key signposts along the way to what seems to
Speaker 1: be a huge shift in sentiment toward the generic Kennedy Well,
Speaker 1: I think part of it comes from the Biden White House.
Speaker 1: You're seeing in the more recent polls in which he
Speaker 1: has absolutely bummited with his approval rating they're asking, do
Speaker 1: you think that Joe Biden has the answers or the
Speaker 1: ability to fix these problems? And of course a lot
Speaker 1: of people are saying no. The overwhelming majority of people
Speaker 1: are saying no. Again, because I would remind people they're
Speaker 1: not interested in solution all of this that has brought
Speaker 1: about the inflation and the high gas prices. It's intentional.
Speaker 1: So of course they don't have the solutions because they
Speaker 1: don't want the solutions. What they are doing is absolutely intentional.
Speaker 1: But the other thing I would point out block that
Speaker 1: they're always an important dynamic. You've always got the red
Speaker 1: versus Blue teams, and a lot of the Red's going
Speaker 1: to vote Republican, a lot of the blue are going
Speaker 1: to vote for Democrats, don't forget the independent. And a
Speaker 1: lot of these approval rating polls, Joe Biden's at nineteen percent,
Speaker 1: I've even seen in some of them, but most of
Speaker 1: the time a mid to low twenties. That's staggering those
Speaker 1: numbers that the independent voters look at the Democratic par
Speaker 1: and Joe Biden and in such low approval ratings, and
Speaker 1: I think a lot of them are going to vote Republican.
Speaker 1: That's where you're going to see the major shift in
Speaker 1: the electorate because again, a lot of people vote either
Speaker 1: Democrat or Republican based off their actual affiliation. Is the
Speaker 1: independence of which there's a significant amount that I think
Speaker 1: are going to really prove the difference because they have
Speaker 1: absolute susdain for Joe Biden and as policies. Do you
Speaker 1: think there could be some major upsets or some pickups
Speaker 1: of Republicans winning in winning a congressional race, let's say,
Speaker 1: in what was a deep blue state that would have
Speaker 1: been unthinkable even a year ago. I do. I've even
Speaker 1: had the thought, and it sounds maybe a little crazy
Speaker 1: right now, book, but these trajectories. Inflation is not getting better,
Speaker 1: Joe Biden's approval ratings are not getting better. All of
Speaker 1: these trajectories. As you get closer to the mid germs,
Speaker 1: and we're not that far away, they start to harden
Speaker 1: and they're going in a certain direction, which is not
Speaker 1: good for Democrats. I think, and I know this sounds
Speaker 1: crazy even as I'm saying it. If anything that Joe
Speaker 1: Biden won by two twenty points or less in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty might actually be in place. So think about the
Speaker 1: forty five Democratic seas that are plus twelve or less,
Speaker 1: you might even get up to the plus twenty range
Speaker 1: or less. That Republicans could absolutely be competitive him and
Speaker 1: sneak a few House seats, and I think even maybe
Speaker 1: sneak the Senate tater two as well. Here is MSNBC,
Speaker 1: for example, worried that losing the midterms could be worse
Speaker 1: for them than even losing the presidency. They say, watch this,
Speaker 1: we're approaching the hundred day out from the mid term.
Speaker 1: If things don't go well in the mid term, as
Speaker 1: if meaning if these election deniers win Secretary of State,
Speaker 1: the win, governorships, win attorney General, take back the Senate,
Speaker 1: take over the House, it doesn't matter who's on the
Speaker 1: ballot in twenty twenty four. You know, Doubts and moron,
Speaker 1: But I do think he's right in so far as
Speaker 1: if Biden has a divided Congress going into whatever the
Speaker 1: re election cycle is going to be, whether it's Biden
Speaker 1: or somebody else, it's not going to be good for
Speaker 1: the Democrats. But even more, that's probably the most intelligent
Speaker 1: thing I've heard Doubt say in years. But I think
Speaker 1: what he's really alluding to, Buck is even beyond the
Speaker 1: federal races, there's thirty six gubernatorial, thirty five, I think
Speaker 1: attorney general, twenty six, twenty seven secretary of state races
Speaker 1: this midterm. If Republicans can take the gubernatorial seats, and
Speaker 1: I think they have a legitimate chance on all of
Speaker 1: these in Pennsylvania, in Michigan, and Wisconsin, maybe even in Nevada,
Speaker 1: you win in twenty twenty four. By winning in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two, Democrats can't pull the same tricks they pulled
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty if you're holding on to the gubernatorial
Speaker 1: and the secretary of state and you've got all the
Speaker 1: legislative seats, I think, really what doubt is realizing that
Speaker 1: if they get obliterated, not only at the federal level
Speaker 1: but at the state level, Democrats are gonna have a
Speaker 1: very very hard time winning in twenty twenty four because
Speaker 1: they can't pull the center for tecon civic life, they
Speaker 1: can't skirt state laws and constitutions, they can't pull the
Speaker 1: univer some mail in ballot tricks that they pulled in
Speaker 1: a lot of these battleground states in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1: That's what he's starting to realize, and it might be
Speaker 1: a reugh election for some Rhinos. Out there. From what
Speaker 1: I understand, Wyoming GOP primary race, for example, shows Liz
Speaker 1: Cheney behind Harriet Hadria Hageman. I don't know Harriet thirty
Speaker 1: one to fifty nine Liz Cheney, she's gonna lose her
Speaker 1: seeing you think, you know. The only dynamic that people
Speaker 1: should be aware of his Democrats can crossover, and a
Speaker 1: lot of Liz Cheney's campaign right now is trying to
Speaker 1: get Democrats to cross over and vote for her in
Speaker 1: that primaries. An open primary in Wyoming, there's just simply
Speaker 1: not enough Democrats in the state of Wyoming, though, I
Speaker 1: think the sable is Cheney. But the August primaries are
Speaker 1: going to be very interesting. Back I would encourage people.
Speaker 1: August second got some really interesting primaries in Michigan and
Speaker 1: in Washington State in which Trump endorsed candidates are going
Speaker 1: up against impeachment voters. And then you've got also a
Speaker 1: couple of weeks later that Wyoming primary as well. So
Speaker 1: I think you're going to see some pretty interesting results
Speaker 1: in Republican primaries in August. It's also going to be
Speaker 1: another telling sign how is Trump's endorsement record going to
Speaker 1: hold up against incumbents. But again, these incumbent incumbents voted
Speaker 1: for impeachment. I think a lot of them are in
Speaker 1: serious trouble, like Liz Cheney. Then, thanks so much. Good
Speaker 1: to see you. Thanks Buck. In addition to federal elections,
Speaker 1: Americans in thirty six states we'll choose their next governor.
Speaker 1: We'll take a look at some of those races with
Speaker 1: the politics editor for the Washington Examiner, Jim Ansel. When
Speaker 1: we come back with the mid terms just around the corner,
Speaker 1: everyone's wondering if we're going to see this red wave
Speaker 1: takeover at the state level as well as the federal
Speaker 1: For gubernatorial races, there are thirty six states to elect
Speaker 1: their new governor. For more on this, let me bring
Speaker 1: in Jim Antil. He's the politics editor at the Washington Examiner. Jim,
Speaker 1: thanks for being with us. Thanks for having me so
Speaker 1: a new USA. Today's Suffolk University poll shows Democrats with
Speaker 1: a narrow advantage over Republicans of the congressional ballot forty
Speaker 1: four to forty percent, a bit better than the forty
Speaker 1: forty split they scored in June. But gloom about the
Speaker 1: nation's economy and its politics still pose big hurdles for
Speaker 1: Democrats to avoid significant losses going forward. What are you
Speaker 1: looking at in terms of some of these governors races,
Speaker 1: I mean one of the big ones that are top
Speaker 1: of your radar right now. Well, there are a couple
Speaker 1: of different things. I mean, one, you have a couple
Speaker 1: of really important sitting Republican governors who are running for reelection,
Speaker 1: and I think chief among those is Florida Governor Ronda Santis,
Speaker 1: who is widely considered to be a twenty twenty four
Speaker 1: possibility may become the front runner of former President Donald
Speaker 1: Trump doesn't run, but certainly would be a competitive candidate
Speaker 1: should they both choose to run. And so he's running
Speaker 1: for reelection this year, and the margin by which he wins,
Speaker 1: should he win and he is favored to do so,
Speaker 1: could tell us a lot about his future prospects. He's
Speaker 1: taken some pretty strong stands, conservative stands in which historically speaking,
Speaker 1: within a battleground state, and he fought a close election
Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen to get elected in the first place.
Speaker 1: So if he's able to get re elected by a
Speaker 1: comfortable margin, that should be a pretty good indicator of
Speaker 1: his electoral strength that may have national implications. Can I
Speaker 1: just see another You're throwing the mix here really quickly, Jim,
Speaker 1: the state of Florida, we got some numbers here Desantists
Speaker 1: versus his expected Democrat opponents, right, either Charlie Christ or
Speaker 1: Nicky Freed versus Christ. Desantist is at fifty percent, and
Speaker 1: the most recent polling we could find Charlie Chris is
Speaker 1: at forty one, so he seems to have a pretty
Speaker 1: comfortable lead there. And then if it is DeSantis versus
Speaker 1: Nikki Freed, who believes the Agricultural Commissioner for the State
Speaker 1: of Florida, Desantist is a fifty two to thirty nine percent,
Speaker 1: is there any expectation that that's going to turn around
Speaker 1: or is it? Look I mean, doesn't DeSantis have like
Speaker 1: one hundred million dollars war chest. I mean, if you're
Speaker 1: looking in terms of how much money he has, in
Speaker 1: terms of how much exposure he has, and in terms
Speaker 1: of how well he's doing in the polls, the Democrats
Speaker 1: don't seem to have a very good chance here. And
Speaker 1: in the recent past, the Republicans have actually outperformed their
Speaker 1: poll numbers, have tended to do better on election day
Speaker 1: than the bulls have predicted. So if that's the case,
Speaker 1: he could be looking at a re election landslide. It's
Speaker 1: obviously it'll be a good year for Republicans, but that
Speaker 1: would really put him in a strong position to say
Speaker 1: that he easily won re election in a battleground state
Speaker 1: as a sort of conservative model on things ranging from
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen to fighting corporations. Now, let's take a look
Speaker 1: at Pennsylvania. Jam the Democratic nominee. There is current Attendant
Speaker 1: Attorney General Josh Shapiro. There are a number of Republican
Speaker 1: candidates fighting for the possibility of being the next governor.
Speaker 1: There who stands out in your mind? How's this race
Speaker 1: looking so? Doug Masciano was the Trump endorsed candidate in
Speaker 1: the Republican primary. He will be the Republican nominee against Shapiro.
Speaker 1: This is the candidate many Democrats wanted to face off against,
Speaker 1: and establishment Republicans didn't want him, largely due to his
Speaker 1: stance on the twenty twenty presidential election and questioning some
Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania's practices. There. You know it's a close race.
Speaker 1: If you look at the polling, it's competitive, and the
Speaker 1: national Party has been hesitant to get involved. If he
Speaker 1: can't show that he'll be com editive, but the indications
Speaker 1: are that this could be a tight race. So Democrats
Speaker 1: often need to be careful what they wish for because
Speaker 1: they just might get it. And this is going to
Speaker 1: be a key state nationally in twenty twenty four as well,
Speaker 1: So this is an important race for Republicans and if
Speaker 1: they were to win, it would be a pickup of
Speaker 1: a seat. Another showdown that's going to get a lot
Speaker 1: of attention for a governor's mansion, at least a lot
Speaker 1: of media attention going to be down in Texas where
Speaker 1: current governor or Greg Abbott is going to be up
Speaker 1: against Beto Robert O'Rourke. Right now, Greg abbotts at forty
Speaker 1: seven percent to Beto at forty one percent. How is
Speaker 1: this lining up and what are your expectations? Well, see
Speaker 1: o Rourke is an interesting character because he's kind of
Speaker 1: gotten this reputation among national Democrats and has a huge
Speaker 1: national fundraising base basically from running a little bit better
Speaker 1: than you'd expect to Democrat to run statewide in Texas
Speaker 1: but still losing and that's only an impressive thing to
Speaker 1: do so many times, So that's going to be a
Speaker 1: big problem. All Rourke has going into this race, now,
Speaker 1: I would expect Abbott to have a much bigger lead
Speaker 1: than what he currently does in the polls, so that
Speaker 1: would be him being below fifty percent is mildly concerning.
Speaker 1: But when you think of the fact that O'Rourke came
Speaker 1: up short in twenty eighteen in a statewide race during
Speaker 1: a very good cycle for Democrats nationally, you can't really
Speaker 1: expect him to pull off the upset here this November.
Speaker 1: And now moving to the state of Georgia, Stacy Abrams
Speaker 1: square it off against the current governor, Kemp. How do
Speaker 1: you think Abrams is looking in this race? How is
Speaker 1: that going to shake out? You know, the polling has
Speaker 1: been a little varied there, but most of the polls
Speaker 1: do show Brian Kemp ahead, and it only he differs
Speaker 1: in terms of how far he's ahead. You know. Stacy
Speaker 1: Abrams is another case where coming close in twenty eighteen
Speaker 1: a great Democratic cycle might not cut it in a
Speaker 1: more republican cycle, in a more republican year. So if
Speaker 1: there's a red wave, Stacy Abrams might not be able
Speaker 1: to claim that voter suppression somehow denied her her rightful governorship.
Speaker 1: It may not be close enough for her to plausibly
Speaker 1: make those types of contentions, although that may not stop her,
Speaker 1: but it's not looking like it's shaping up to be
Speaker 1: a good year for her now that the Senate race
Speaker 1: being tight, and maybe with the Democrats still leading there,
Speaker 1: Republicans can't completely give up on the idea that Georgia
Speaker 1: will be a competitive state across the board. Obviously, it
Speaker 1: was a closely fought state in twenty twenty, so they
Speaker 1: can't really rest on their laurels. But at the moment,
Speaker 1: it doesn't look like the best time for Stacy Abrams
Speaker 1: to be forcing this rematch. And I'm just wondering if
Speaker 1: there are any places, any other governors' races you're looking
Speaker 1: at where you think you could actually get a GOP
Speaker 1: or a Democrat upset. Well, the big thing will be
Speaker 1: there is similar to Pennsylvania. There was Democrats tried to
Speaker 1: intervene in the Republican primary in Maryland and they got
Speaker 1: their wish and it was also a Trump in doors
Speaker 1: to candidate. This is a state that is very, very blue.
Speaker 1: But the two term, retiring term limited Republican Governor Larry Hogan,
Speaker 1: who has some presidential aspirations of his own, has held
Speaker 1: the Fort down there pretty well in terms of being
Speaker 1: able to beat Democratic challengers. Is this a year that's
Speaker 1: read enough that Democrats will have miscalculated by helping the
Speaker 1: Republican nominee win this time in this primary. That's a
Speaker 1: good question, and we'll have to see it. Jim appreciate
Speaker 1: the expertise, Thanks for being with us, Thank you for
Speaker 1: having me. That's all the time we have for the
Speaker 1: special edition up hold the line. I'd like to thank
Speaker 1: my guess ned Ryan con Carol, Jim Antle, and Ryan
Speaker 1: gre Dusky for sharing their expertise with us. The No
Speaker 1: Spin News with Bill O'Reilly is coming up next. Shield's
Speaker 1: High