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Speaker 1: Let's get to our guests as she's Chata is with us.

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Speaker 1: He is the founder and the CEO of Crystal. He

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Speaker 1: joins from Singapore. She's thanks for being with us. So

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Speaker 1: we're talking a lot on the program about the China

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Speaker 1: reopened and whether or not, I know, the market seems

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Speaker 1: to believe that it's gonna happen in a way that's

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Speaker 1: not necessarily orderly but meaningful. I mean, do you think

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Speaker 1: there's a risk that the things could move the other

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Speaker 1: direction in a hurry. I think it's a great move

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Speaker 1: that China has at least started signaling some reopening, whether

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Speaker 1: it's through the EARTI testings and so on. But we

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Speaker 1: don't believe that this is going to be a very

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Speaker 1: smooth reopening. It's going to be quite a way. We

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Speaker 1: but probably cities of openings and certain closings also, if

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Speaker 1: we would use that word. So it's definitely going to

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Speaker 1: be a bat you right, But it's in a step

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Speaker 1: in the right direction, So think of it like a

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Speaker 1: sign way of going in the right direction. Yeah, absentee ism,

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Speaker 1: supply chain disruption, these are all experiences that other countries

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Speaker 1: that have reopened have suffered. So if you're looking to

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Speaker 1: got money to work in China and you got the

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Speaker 1: stomach for a rough ride. Where should where should you

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Speaker 1: be looking as a broad index? Definitely, there's been a

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Speaker 1: lot of rebound coming in the take place and some

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Speaker 1: of the names too. But I think broad index is

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Speaker 1: the best way to still go into because you still

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Speaker 1: don't know what sectors, whether there's going to be more

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Speaker 1: to come in property or other places, so it's quite

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Speaker 1: quite tricky to take a particular sector. So I think

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Speaker 1: broad index is what we typically prefer to go into.

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Speaker 1: But yes, it's a right in the right direction. We

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Speaker 1: had a guest earlier that was saying, maybe you want

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Speaker 1: to avoid going into China through Hong Kong and getting

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Speaker 1: exposure to some of the consumer names. Maybe the consumer

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Speaker 1: facing technology plays focus instead on the main land and

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Speaker 1: it may seem a little curious with some of the

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Speaker 1: larger state owned companies. Maybe that's the way to get

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Speaker 1: um dividend off of the government's plan to stimulate through

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Speaker 1: you know, more spending coming out of Beijing. Do do

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Speaker 1: you think that makes sense? I think that makes some

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Speaker 1: sense because anyway it's a domestic demand. China still likely

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Speaker 1: to be in a growth more Next year, whereas the

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Speaker 1: rest of the world may be in a recession. However,

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Speaker 1: mind it may be, but definitely going into more broader

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Speaker 1: sectors and more in the on shore which I demand

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Speaker 1: driven on shore demand of in sectors would make more

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Speaker 1: sense there. Yeah, we've already seen some stimulus from China.

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Speaker 1: There was a triple I cut a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: What more support do you anticipate might be coming? So

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Speaker 1: we think there could be some more fiscal support, but

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Speaker 1: we've always seen that historically, the market is expecting a

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Speaker 1: lot more than what is finally delivered. So it's got

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Speaker 1: to be slow, is what I think we should expect.

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Speaker 1: Whether it's a triple OUR cutter, whether there's more fiscal

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Speaker 1: stimulus coming, it's anybody's guess. So at one point of

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Speaker 1: finger on that the stage, but there is an expectation

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Speaker 1: that there will be more openings, more stimulus coming to

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Speaker 1: support the domestic economy. What do you think about the

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Speaker 1: strategy of investing in economies or markets that may be

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Speaker 1: exposed to the recovery story in China, not necessarily making

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Speaker 1: it a direct assault as it were, on trying to

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Speaker 1: put money to work in China related assets, but let's

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Speaker 1: look at Vietnam, let's look at Taiwan, let's look at

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Speaker 1: South Korea. Fair statement, that's true, So definitely the supply

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Speaker 1: chains are connected there, and you know, with the opening

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Speaker 1: of China you could have some of these logs coming

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Speaker 1: out helping certain economies or not helping certain ones. But

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Speaker 1: I think overall the direction should be that as COVID

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Speaker 1: takes a step back, the focus may come back into

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Speaker 1: higher demand, leading to higher inflation. And I think that's

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Speaker 1: probably a bigger risk because clearly the direction is clear

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Speaker 1: that with more reopening there will be lesser suppli chain issues,

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Speaker 1: but there could be water later issues coming up. But overall, yes,

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Speaker 1: other certain other economies which benefit with China reopening, and

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Speaker 1: definitely a worthwhile to look at. Yeah, to that point,

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Speaker 1: I mean, we're seeing a little bit of weakness in

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Speaker 1: Australia today, but materials performing well. We've seen the iron

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Speaker 1: ore price rising over the past week or so. As

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Speaker 1: commodities an area to take a look at as well.

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Speaker 1: So what is definitely see we've seen even the inflation

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Speaker 1: will come down and the energy prices are stabilizing. What

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Speaker 1: commodities is going to be a tricky one going forward,

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Speaker 1: So yes, keeping an eye on it, but it totally

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Speaker 1: depends on whether we have a hard landing or not,

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Speaker 1: because that I think we'll drive the overall commodity prices

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Speaker 1: and even the Australian markets. I think the elephant in

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Speaker 1: the room is FED policy, what it means for the

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Speaker 1: global economy visa v U S, interest rates and the dollar.

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Speaker 1: Do you have a view on that. Do you think

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Speaker 1: that we're facing a scenario where maybe the FED is

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Speaker 1: going to be a little bit more aggressive than the

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Speaker 1: market had been anticipating earlier. So I think the current

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Speaker 1: meeting that's coming up in a couple of days the

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Speaker 1: pricing and about ai t PP hike, and I think

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Speaker 1: that's likely to be delivered because if it is cognizant

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Speaker 1: of the fact that some of the elements in the

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Speaker 1: CP basket have started slowing down. So actually you may

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Speaker 1: see a lower CPR read on Monday, and that's something

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Speaker 1: that FED has recognized and they're seeing that there are

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Speaker 1: a mixture of data coming out. While payroll is pretty good,

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Speaker 1: with certain other data points are kind of mixed with

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Speaker 1: it's b M I or I s M. So it's

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Speaker 1: definitely looking at the pace of hike to be lower

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Speaker 1: and fit does recognize that we are looking at a

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Speaker 1: mild recession on maybe even a hard landing. Of course

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Speaker 1: they don't want the hard landing, but clearly that's the

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Speaker 1: main one that's everyone's want to focus on. But I

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Speaker 1: don't think it is likely to overshoot five percent in

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Speaker 1: the next three to four months. During the next key

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Speaker 1: piece of data to come out of the US will

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Speaker 1: be a CPI next week. What signs do you see

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Speaker 1: their inflation maybe just celebrating, perhaps even reaching a plateau. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so we think that it is likely to plat or

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Speaker 1: maybe we have already seen the hike the highest gone

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Speaker 1: with the certain components of the basket, you know, whether

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Speaker 1: it's um, you know, energy or food prices which have

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Speaker 1: kind of stabilized at their housing market. If you see

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Speaker 1: the Sino index, that has also started showing signs of weakness.

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Speaker 1: So there are certain sectors which lack let's say it's

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Speaker 1: the healthcare or government or education sectors, you know, on

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Speaker 1: the payroll side, which still keeps UH demands strong. But

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Speaker 1: some of these leading indicators on the let's say the

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Speaker 1: mortgages or even transportation are showcasing that we may have

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Speaker 1: lower CPR reads. Now it's going to be sticky. It's

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Speaker 1: not like it's going to come down to two percent

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Speaker 1: anytime soon, but definitely the peak may be over. So

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Speaker 1: I'm listening to everything that you're laying out there a

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Speaker 1: serious and I'm trying to understand whether it would be

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Speaker 1: more prudent to, let's say, be exposed to credit markets

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Speaker 1: right now fixed income instruments rather than equities. It's clearly

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Speaker 1: fixed income at current values that are the yields that

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Speaker 1: are prevailing is looking very, very interesting. So that's especially

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Speaker 1: in the I g UH sector in sort and even

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Speaker 1: higher names. So that's definitely one of the topics given

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Speaker 1: where rates are and given where you know the market

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Speaker 1: is pricing a mild recession. So that's definitely a topic.

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Speaker 1: The equities, especially growth or if you take the broad

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Speaker 1: US sector, Yes, it could go rarely five six, seven percent,

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Speaker 1: but it may just get topped out as uh, you

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Speaker 1: know mein companies come out with results budgeting and more

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Speaker 1: recession going forward. Yeah, to that point, what do you

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Speaker 1: anticipate for the next round of earnings? So we think

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Speaker 1: that the corporates may give a guidance that you know

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Speaker 1: it's going to be toe. If you see most of

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Speaker 1: the CEOs, they are giving mixed or weak signals. So

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Speaker 1: even if the corporate earnings are on expectation, even though

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Speaker 1: we think it may be lower, at least the forward

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Speaker 1: guidance may not be strong. And that's exactly why we

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Speaker 1: think that they coulies may not rally and fix income

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Speaker 1: is the place to just stay. All right, she's Chander,

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Speaker 1: We will leave it there. Thanks so much for joining

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Speaker 1: us on the Bloomberg Day for occasion because she's Chander

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Speaker 1: is founder and CEO of Crystal