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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. It's the middle of August, folks.

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Speaker 1: We are less than three weeks away from the beginning

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Speaker 1: of college football. From week zero of college football, which

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Speaker 1: means today is going to be a college football spectacular

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Speaker 1: from the perspective of what the wise guys are doing

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Speaker 1: and who they're betting and who they like. So later

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Speaker 1: on in the show, you're not gonna want to miss it.

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Speaker 1: Phil Steel. Phil Steel's two thousand nineteen college football previews

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Speaker 1: out now. You can go to fill steel dot com

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Speaker 1: and get it. Everybody knows that if you are a better,

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Speaker 1: the bible for college football in preseason magazines is Phil

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Speaker 1: Steel and every better I know religiously reads that magazine.

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Speaker 1: And I learned this from my favorite co host, Mr

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Speaker 1: Bob Scucci. Does not get old, does it? Scooch from Music? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: the music is back. I like it. Bob Scucci from

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Speaker 1: New Orleans and all the Boyd gaming books throughout this

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Speaker 1: great nation of ours. Bookmaker to the world. That music

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Speaker 1: gets me so psyched up for you to come on

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Speaker 1: the show. It's inexplicable and to talk football already, it

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Speaker 1: seems like we were just doing it a few weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: We were. We did it last week, exactly one week ago,

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Speaker 1: we did it, SCOOCHI you and I. You and I

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Speaker 1: talked about football, and we're gonna do it again last week.

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Speaker 1: I know, I know, these these moments are so important

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Speaker 1: for you. Hey, by the way, let's give a shout

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Speaker 1: out here. Let's give a shout out to one of

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Speaker 1: our favorite people. Okay, I'm going to give a shout

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Speaker 1: out to Evan Young. Right, do you know what I'm

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Speaker 1: talking about? Um? Evan Young, who in the years past

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Speaker 1: has won the get Your Prop Up in Vegas contest

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Speaker 1: for uh gets gets He picks a prop and creates

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Speaker 1: it and Scooch picks the winner and for the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: Uh he gets it up in the in Vegas. Right,

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Speaker 1: So he's one of a couple of years in a row.

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Speaker 1: And the little backstory here's coming the podcast and he

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Speaker 1: became friends with a guy who also had entered the

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Speaker 1: contest and they sort of connected through the podcast. They

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Speaker 1: became such good friends that this other guy went to

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Speaker 1: Evan's wedding, which happened recently Evan and Kirsten right, and

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Speaker 1: last year before the wedding, Evan and Brian came on

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Speaker 1: the podcast and Brian had asked me and you Scooch

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Speaker 1: to sign a copy of the odds that he could

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Speaker 1: give to Evan for the wedding, which he did, which

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Speaker 1: was very nice Evan. Since Evan this past weekend sent

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Speaker 1: us the wedding video like the ten minute wedding video

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Speaker 1: from him and Kirsten's wedding and his and Kirston's wedding

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Speaker 1: and it is dropped dead lovely, dropped dead romantic. You.

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Speaker 1: You know how much I love love. I've seen you,

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Speaker 1: I've been to your wedding. I know how much you

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Speaker 1: love love. You cannot help but love this wedding video.

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Speaker 1: That was great. I appreciate seeing that. And haven't you

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Speaker 1: sent that to me? That was great to say, Oh

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Speaker 1: my god, it was so awesome. So we're wishing Evan

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Speaker 1: and Kirston the best. I hope they're still listening to

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Speaker 1: the podcast together and um, we want them to be

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Speaker 1: happy and healthy in marriage. And also the best part

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Speaker 1: about the wedding video and the reason Evan sent is

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Speaker 1: because his father in law. The opening line was, I

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Speaker 1: know Evan likes to bet on sports, and I know

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Speaker 1: he's really good at betting on sports, and I'm betting

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Speaker 1: on this to be a long and happy marriage. That

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Speaker 1: was a great line. It just seems like it was

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Speaker 1: a fun wedding. I kind of wish we were there

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Speaker 1: now that I think about it. It's a little weird.

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Speaker 1: He didn't invite us, right, it's a little weird, a

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Speaker 1: little hurt, a little weird. He didn't ask either one

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Speaker 1: of us to officiate. I'm sure the bride would have

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Speaker 1: appreciated that. How were we not the people that were hosting?

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Speaker 1: Like that? We were the hosts. Now, everybody welcome Evan's

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Speaker 1: father in law, and he's gonna give a toast, like

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Speaker 1: now that I think about it, Now that I think

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Speaker 1: about it, all the good will I'm passing along to

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Speaker 1: Evan I'm taking back because I can't believe we weren't

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Speaker 1: invited in a part of this wedding. Ye, that's ridiculous, scooge.

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Speaker 1: Like I said, I got Phil, I got Phil Steel

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Speaker 1: coming on later on in the show. And as you know,

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Speaker 1: Phil Steel is a college football savant whose magazine is

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Speaker 1: beloved by every better in the world. So the same

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Speaker 1: same exercise last week, only this time for college football

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Speaker 1: right now, Scooch, give me the teams that are the

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Speaker 1: biggest liabilities, because the wise guys are pounding them in

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Speaker 1: terms of future odds for your bevy of sports books. Okay, well,

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Speaker 1: I'll separate just a couple out. The wise guys are

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Speaker 1: have bet Georgia down. We were at eight to one,

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Speaker 1: we're down due six to one. But they're not the

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Speaker 1: team that we have the biggest liability. The teams that

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Speaker 1: we have the biggest liability is actually USC But I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't call any of it sharp money. It's probably just

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Speaker 1: more uh you know, probably the first time you've seen

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Speaker 1: USC at you know, seventy one or hundred to one,

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Speaker 1: So we have a pretty big liability on them. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Georgia was a little bit of a wise guy play.

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Speaker 1: And then some other bets from from sharp guys. Uh

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Speaker 1: our Oregon at thirty five to one. Uh, Penn State

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Speaker 1: at fifty to one, and you know they stay away

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Speaker 1: from the favorites. You're not going to see the wise

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Speaker 1: guys coming in on Clemson Alabama, you know two to

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Speaker 1: one or three to one, so they're looking at kind

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Speaker 1: of legitimate contenders. Uh. Kind of Texas is another one

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Speaker 1: that got a got drew a little fire. I don't

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Speaker 1: believe in Texas. Yeah, I'm okay with that one. Uh,

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Speaker 1: I'm not. I'm not really worried about that. We're haven't

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Speaker 1: moved it too much. We moved it from twenty to

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Speaker 1: one down to fifteen and one, but we're hanging, hanging

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Speaker 1: tough at fifty one. Why to believe and why don't

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Speaker 1: you believe in Texas? And I don't know that the

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Speaker 1: talent is there yet? Um B I feel like and uh,

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Speaker 1: Tom Herman, I'm giving the podcasters a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a preview podcast listeners. Later on the show, Phil Steel

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Speaker 1: is going to talk about Tom Herman not being a

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Speaker 1: great coach is a favorite and he doesn't believe that.

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Speaker 1: He believes that is something that can be overcome. I

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Speaker 1: do not. I think that that is something that is

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Speaker 1: inherent in the psychology of the way a coach approaches

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Speaker 1: the game. Pat Fitzgerald is the same way. These guys

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Speaker 1: have found a lot of success. Tom Herman before Texas,

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Speaker 1: UH and Pat Fitzgerald at Northwestern similar molds. They have

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Speaker 1: found a lot of success getting their guys amped with

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Speaker 1: a little bit less talent to play against the big

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Speaker 1: boys and um and uh exceed expectations. And I think

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Speaker 1: when you are a coach who can sort of get

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Speaker 1: people to an emotional peak, it's really much harder to

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Speaker 1: do it on a weekend, week out basis when you

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Speaker 1: are a favorite. Wow, that's pretty insightful. That was pretty good. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I got to admit. Even the intern in the office

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Speaker 1: right now, he's shaking his head, he's smiling, he's like this.

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Speaker 1: He's like, he's like, this is the most I've learned

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Speaker 1: all summer. Oh, that's pretty good. You can take that

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Speaker 1: back to school psychology class. Drop that, drop that on

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Speaker 1: his profts. Like that guy knows what he's doing. He

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Speaker 1: learned a lot this insnship. So that's why Texas doesn't

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Speaker 1: scare me. Oregon is really interesting to me because Oregon

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Speaker 1: is a team that should. It scares me and it

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Speaker 1: should scare you because that pack twelve is wide open,

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Speaker 1: Scooch wide open, and Oregon could run that table. They

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Speaker 1: got a lot of good athletes, they're recruiting classes continue

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Speaker 1: to get better, and that is a like they can

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Speaker 1: come out of that in the playoff. That's a scary one.

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Speaker 1: Tell me how you're feeling about that one. I do

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Speaker 1: I mean I am scared of them. I mean, after

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Speaker 1: kind of four years of this this coach, they've they've

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Speaker 1: made significant uh strides. Uh. Last year I think they

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Speaker 1: had nine wins uh maybeat I think Michigan State UM

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Speaker 1: in one of the Bowl games that they're they're coming

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Speaker 1: from their peak, you know, like about ten years ago

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Speaker 1: they had their their regression and their what I considered

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Speaker 1: to be the tops to two teams in the Pac twelve.

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Speaker 1: So they do scare me at these odds. Mario, crystal Ball.

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Speaker 1: By the way, is the head coach that's the name

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Speaker 1: you were looking for? Yeah? Is it Crystal Ball or

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Speaker 1: crystal Ball? Good question? Doing need to know how to

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Speaker 1: pronounce the names of the coach in order to bet

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Speaker 1: on the team and feel good about that particular wager.

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Speaker 1: I think you do. Really, I wouldn't want people call

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Speaker 1: me Bob Sushi. People should only call you scooch. Okay, scooch,

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Speaker 1: and that's how they should say it. All right, So

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Speaker 1: Texas doesn't scare me. Oregon, I agree with the choice. Um,

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Speaker 1: what was the other one? Georgia, Oh, Georgia, Georgia. They're

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Speaker 1: on my mind. You're a scoot, will sing it? I

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Speaker 1: got Georgia on my mind. That's a really interesting one

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Speaker 1: that like, this team can compete with Alabama. This team

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Speaker 1: can beat Alabama in a conference title game, This team

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Speaker 1: can beat Alabama in a playoff. They have played Alabama

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Speaker 1: so tough. They are such a good team. They have

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Speaker 1: a quarterback who has been around, who was beaten back competition,

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Speaker 1: who has gotten better and better every single year. He's

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Speaker 1: one of those guys who's gonna feel like he's been

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Speaker 1: playing for fifty years even though he's only a junior. Like,

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Speaker 1: this is a team that I think it compete. I

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Speaker 1: think you made a mistake even posting him at eight

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Speaker 1: to one, and I know you opened lower than other places. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: we did. Uh And I guess that's the criteria. You know,

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Speaker 1: who can be Clemson in Alabama? And that's certainly one

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Speaker 1: of the teams that can. You know, at those odds,

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Speaker 1: I mean, we're not gonna get We're not gonna get hurt.

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Speaker 1: We have more bets on Georgia, I think than any

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Speaker 1: other team as I'm looking at this, Uh, more individual

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Speaker 1: wagers on Georgia than any other team on the board.

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Speaker 1: But because at eight to one, the liability isn't as

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Speaker 1: great as some of those long shots. But this is

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Speaker 1: uh yeah, this is one I'm probably uh a little

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Speaker 1: worried about more individual wagers on Georgia than anybody else

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Speaker 1: on the board that's on our board. Yeah yeah, and

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Speaker 1: uh close second is actually uh Notre Dame. Uh and

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Speaker 1: that's an interesting one too, But a lot of that

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Speaker 1: is just the public support for Notre Dame and just

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Speaker 1: you know, their nationwide appeal. Yeah. I mean, look, that's

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Speaker 1: a team that also you know it's going to be competitive. Um,

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Speaker 1: they played strong last year and so there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of sort of there's a lot of public sentiment for

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Speaker 1: what they're gonna do, So I can see that one.

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Speaker 1: Also their helmets are shiny. Yeah, and the same with USC.

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Speaker 1: Like I said, there's our biggest liability on the board.

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Speaker 1: We get absolutely annihilated on them. But uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: their season win total is six and a half games,

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Speaker 1: so I'm not I'm not super worried that they're going

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Speaker 1: to have a breakout year. Who are the five season

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Speaker 1: win totals you're most worried about right now? Um, well,

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Speaker 1: we've got a lot of them on the board. Actually, Uh,

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Speaker 1: I mean some of them are just kind of some

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Speaker 1: small teams, but like San Diego State, Uh, we probably

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Speaker 1: hung a little bit higher number that we should have

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Speaker 1: eight and a half over money, and they just pounded

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Speaker 1: that one under eight and a half. Stanford we hung

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Speaker 1: a low total at six and a half and that

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Speaker 1: got bet up to six and a half over a

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Speaker 1: dollar fifty. So we get kind of hammered on that one. Um,

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Speaker 1: like I said, USC is one that uh not not

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Speaker 1: too worried about it. Um, Hawaii is an interesting one.

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Speaker 1: Now again we have a lot of Hawaiian clientele at

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Speaker 1: at our at our property. So over five and a

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Speaker 1: half games on that one, Uh, not really sure how

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Speaker 1: much of that was from the Hawaiian clientele. And I

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Speaker 1: don't think that was too many. Too many professional betters

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Speaker 1: betting on that one. Um, some of those are probably

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Speaker 1: some of our biggest. Again, Notre Dame over nine and

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Speaker 1: a half games is uh, pretty big decision. But again

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Speaker 1: that's probably a lot of public money. And and they're

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Speaker 1: betting and some sharp money on Oklahoma under ten and

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Speaker 1: a half games. How many bets did you get on Clemson?

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Speaker 1: I bet you you posted count Clemson I bet at

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Speaker 1: eleven and a half Exactly how many bets on the over.

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Speaker 1: Did you get um, quite a few? Uh, probably about

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Speaker 1: five times more than the under that much. Yeah, most

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Speaker 1: of the bets Alabama over Clemson over Ohio State over

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Speaker 1: all three of them. Almost nothing on the under on

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Speaker 1: all three of those teams. What about Michigan, Um, Yeah, Michigan.

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Speaker 1: I think ten and a half over tend to have

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Speaker 1: under a dollar sixty, but they did bet that under

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Speaker 1: ten and a half games were up to ten and

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Speaker 1: a half minus a dollar ninety on the under. It's

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Speaker 1: an interesting one. A lot of people like in Michigan.

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Speaker 1: I know in our Colleges podcast on the Action Network

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Speaker 1: Stucky and Colin Wilson Stuckey. Stuckey hasn't Evan loves Kirsten

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Speaker 1: affection from Michigan right now. Y'all love the energy of

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Speaker 1: that that team and the way Harbor gets them up

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Speaker 1: for I mean, he has such a unique approach. I mean,

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Speaker 1: love him or hate him, There's there's a certain energy

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Speaker 1: that he brings to the games that it's one of

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Speaker 1: those intangibles. It's so interesting to me. You know. One

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Speaker 1: of the things that we noticed last year when we

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Speaker 1: launched the Action Network is which I knew, but the

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Speaker 1: activity in the betting space for college football. If you

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Speaker 1: had to guess, because I know it's hard to break down,

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Speaker 1: if you had to guess, would you say that your

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Speaker 1: handle for college football is equal to your handle for NFL? No, No,

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Speaker 1: it's uh. I mean really nothing comes close to to

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Speaker 1: NFL because it just has such wide appeal and as

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Speaker 1: much as popular as college football is, it's a little

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Speaker 1: bit more regionalized, and uh so we don't get the

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Speaker 1: mass or broad appeal that NFL has. But having said that,

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Speaker 1: there's just so many more college games that you know,

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Speaker 1: the handle approaches NFL only in the sense that there's

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Speaker 1: three times more more games, and if the handle on

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Speaker 1: each game is like, you know, a third of an

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Speaker 1: NFL game, it will kind of equal the total handle.

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Speaker 1: Does that make sense? There's just too there's just so

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Speaker 1: it's like our handle in baseball is uh almost as

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Speaker 1: much as uh football, only because there's games every single

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Speaker 1: day as opposed to once a week. Right, So what

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Speaker 1: you're saying is handle per game is a is more

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Speaker 1: indicative of a t of a sports popularity for betting

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Speaker 1: than overall handle exactly. M hm. Now, having you know,

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Speaker 1: this is the first year that we've opened up sports

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Speaker 1: betting in other regions, and I will say that our

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Speaker 1: two properties in Mississippi college football outrights NFL. They'll get

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Speaker 1: a lot of money on the Saints because of the

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Speaker 1: proximity of New Orleans to uh Biloxi, Mississippi. But colleges

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Speaker 1: came down there, and like I said, it's it's you know,

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Speaker 1: it's all SEC country and uh so, so it's not

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Speaker 1: a surprise to see more money on on college than

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Speaker 1: NFL down there. No, No, that totally makes sense. But

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Speaker 1: then that also impacts how you're gonna set your lines right,

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Speaker 1: how you're gonna set your totals, How are you going

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Speaker 1: to set your uh futurads? Like do you shade Mississippi State,

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Speaker 1: do you shade all miss How do you manage that?

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Speaker 1: It's interesting because that was kind of the idea when

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Speaker 1: we first were thinking about this years ago when we

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Speaker 1: opened up into other states. And you know, you get

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Speaker 1: if you open up in Philadelphia to shade the Eagles

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Speaker 1: a little bit. And the approach that we've found that

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Speaker 1: works is just set what we think is the right

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Speaker 1: number and just let the chips kind of fall where

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Speaker 1: they may. And if we think four is the right number.

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Speaker 1: We're not gonna make it four and a half just

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Speaker 1: because we know that the bets are going to be

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Speaker 1: coming in on Georgia down there or so, and we

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Speaker 1: found that it's uh, it's worked uh in you know,

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Speaker 1: at very early stages. Maybe it's not a big enough

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Speaker 1: sample size, but um, it worked pretty well last year,

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Speaker 1: and I think we may just continue to do that.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna we're gonna move to the sharp guys, you know,

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Speaker 1: guys that we respect, whether they bet here or whether

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Speaker 1: they bet in Mississippi. Were still respect then. But we're

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Speaker 1: not just gonna shade a line on every game down there.

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Speaker 1: Um Now, having said that, there are certain instances during

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Speaker 1: the season, don't get me wrong, we may shade at

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Speaker 1: a half a point here and there, but by and large,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna stick to what we feel is a good number.

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Speaker 1: All right, scools, let's recap for a second Georgia, Oregon,

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Speaker 1: USC Texas, Notre Dame. Those are the future odds that

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Speaker 1: are giving you the most ada as we head into

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Speaker 1: the college football season. That's accurate, exactly, and amazingly, amazingly,

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Speaker 1: the wind totals that are giving you the most concerned

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Speaker 1: are not even like the wind totals that are interesting

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Speaker 1: to anybody. San Diego State, Hawaii. Yeah, and that's typical.

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Speaker 1: I can't tell you like on a college Saturday, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, Ohio State Michigan will be playing and and

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Speaker 1: that won't even be our biggest decision of the day.

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Speaker 1: Our biggest decision will be kind of rice and air

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Speaker 1: Force or something like that. It's very typical. I guess

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Speaker 1: that's true. But that's my point about college football. That's

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Speaker 1: why it's so amazing is the passion extends far wider

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Speaker 1: than it does for the NFL. Like the places you

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Speaker 1: can pick your spots, what's going to be interesting. The

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Speaker 1: places where people think they can make their money is

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Speaker 1: going to be a far wider maybe it's a mile

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Speaker 1: wide and an inch deep compared to the NFL. But

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Speaker 1: that to me is what makes college football so fascinating

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Speaker 1: as a sport to bet on, the support to track

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Speaker 1: for betting news and people really focus on a particular

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Speaker 1: conference or a particular region and they seem to do

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Speaker 1: well in one area. And we've noticed that over the

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Speaker 1: years to certain betters, professional betters that we followed, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, we find that they're much stronger in one

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Speaker 1: conference than they are in another. And you know, if

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Speaker 1: we're getting bet from them in that conference, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: move it much more aggressively than if they kind of

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Speaker 1: cross over and bet like an NFL game. Like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: you get he's taking a shot in NFL, but he

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Speaker 1: knows his stuff and this you know in the SEC

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Speaker 1: or or you know, the Big twelve, Big ten. Alright, Scooch,

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Speaker 1: you did a good You did good work today. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna the next the next guest, we gotta get to

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Speaker 1: Phil Steel. And Phil Steel got even deeper college football

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Speaker 1: information than you do. But thank you for coming on

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Speaker 1: your podcasts. Well, I appreciate coming on my podcast. You're

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Speaker 1: thinking yourself for coming on your own podcast. You really

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Speaker 1: are a class act, no wonder your bookmaker of the world.

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Speaker 1: You're like you've been in the hospitality business for so long,

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Speaker 1: you're thinking yourself. Right, it was fun to be here again.

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Speaker 1: All right, Bob Scucci, I'll talk to you later. All right,

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Speaker 1: that's promised. Joining me on the podcast. This man writes

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Speaker 1: what might possibly be the Bible for sports bettors uh,

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Speaker 1: which is a refrain I have heard in twenty years

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Speaker 1: of covering sports betting Mr Phil Steele writes Phil Steel's

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Speaker 1: College Football Preview. The two thousand nineteen edition is available

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Speaker 1: go to Phil steel dot com. How you doing, Phil?

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Speaker 1: You know I am doing great chat and uh mis

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Speaker 1: having our conversations over at ESPN. But I hope all

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Speaker 1: is well with you. Well. I appreciate you coming on.

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Speaker 1: I'm excited to get deep into college football because no

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Speaker 1: one goes deeper than you. I know the effort that

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Speaker 1: you put into the Preview. I know that's why gamblers

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Speaker 1: love it and praise it, and I feel like it's

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Speaker 1: Christmas when they get it back in their mailbox. Um,

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Speaker 1: you've got how many pages three d and fifty pages

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Speaker 1: of the College Football Preview this year? Yeah? Threefty two

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Speaker 1: and it's about the same size we've had the last

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Speaker 1: couple of years because the printer told us if we

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Speaker 1: go much larger that the binding starts to break off easier.

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Speaker 1: So we we sort of limited to three fifty two

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Speaker 1: the last couple of years. But as usual, very little

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Speaker 1: ads and most of the information on top of information. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so you're going through, You're you're looking at literally every

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Speaker 1: single team in college football that will eventually be BO

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Speaker 1: eligible or a college football playoff eligible, and um, give

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Speaker 1: people a little bit of insight into the effort you

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Speaker 1: put into it. How many coaches you've spoken to, how

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Speaker 1: many recruiters, how many coordinator's spoken to, Like, you're not

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Speaker 1: just looking at the internet and then reframing everything. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's quite a bit different than the first year of

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Speaker 1: the magazine. Back then we had about a hundred eighty pages.

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Speaker 1: It was a black and white on new sprint. But

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Speaker 1: this year I talked to over a hundred ten or

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Speaker 1: believe it was about a hundred and ten of the

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Speaker 1: one thirty head coaches out there. And the conversation is

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Speaker 1: generally last about an hour. I send up my sheets

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Speaker 1: with the players on. I like to have them put

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Speaker 1: all my guys in the right order, give me a

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Speaker 1: few notes on each player, and generally it's a pretty

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Speaker 1: lengthy conversation. But I'll tell you what, Chad, the other

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Speaker 1: magazines were hitting the news stand in the middle of May,

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Speaker 1: which means they came out in the middle of April.

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Speaker 1: I was just doing my coaches interviews post spring, so

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Speaker 1: it was all May was my post Spring interviews. And

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Speaker 1: I feel we've got the three deep swell in line

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Speaker 1: for all the teams really has has got the information.

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Speaker 1: It's six months putting this book together. We start the

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Speaker 1: Sunday after Thanksgiving and go all the way through the

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Speaker 1: end of May, and we come out a little bit

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Speaker 1: later and everybody else. But there's a lot of folks

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Speaker 1: that will wait around for the magazine to come out,

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Speaker 1: as opposed to just buying the first couple of football

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Speaker 1: magazines that come out and stop them there. All right,

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Speaker 1: you spoke to a hundred and ten coaches. Yea, what

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Speaker 1: is the most when you give me a nugget? When

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Speaker 1: you heard it, you were like, oh my god, this

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Speaker 1: is amazing. I can't wait to get it into the magazine. Um, well,

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Speaker 1: that's that's tough. It's I don't know if there's I

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Speaker 1: can tell you. There's some nuggets that I got from

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Speaker 1: the coaches that I couldn't put into the magazine. Those

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Speaker 1: are probably the most memorable. Tell me those I can't

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Speaker 1: do that. So that's oh good. That's not good for

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Speaker 1: a podcast. You've got to give me information. Yeah, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna have to work on that. Let's get

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Speaker 1: to the next subject. I'll put my mind on something

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Speaker 1: that I can I can share with you. Put your

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Speaker 1: mind on something right now. If I am betting on

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Speaker 1: a team that is undervalued right now, who is that?

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Speaker 1: You know, even though my magazine came out and UH

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Speaker 1: put a label on him and it's hiked up their

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Speaker 1: value considerably, I still think it's the Nebraska Cornhuskers. And

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Speaker 1: you know, last year was my number one most improved

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Speaker 1: team in the country was Florida, and Florida was coming

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Speaker 1: off a four and seventh season. They ended up number

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Speaker 1: seven in the final polls. They didn't have that much

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Speaker 1: improved year. And this year I look at it with Nebraska.

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Speaker 1: You know, Nebraska is a team that last year Scott

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Speaker 1: Frost took over a past happy offense. Mike Riley was

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Speaker 1: pure pass and the offensive line was built for pass blocking.

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Speaker 1: He had to command change the blocking schemes on the

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Speaker 1: offensive line give him to more of the spread option.

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Speaker 1: You did bring in a proper quarterback in Adrian Martinez,

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Speaker 1: but it took time. Those first six games last year

427
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 1: they everaged twenty three points per game. But over the

428
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 1: last six games, how about thirty seven points per game?

429
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 1: Much more impressive. Now they're in the second year of

430
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 1: the system. The offensive lines geared to the schemes. Martinez

431
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,400
Speaker 1: is back, and then you look at the defense. They've

432
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 1: got six starters back from a banged up unit last year.

433
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna have their best defense they've had

434
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 1: in years. And then you have to factor the schedule

435
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 1: if you're looking for value in the over unders. Uh.

436
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 1: Nebraska last year took on a brutal schedule. They had Michigan,

437
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:33,120
Speaker 1: Michigan State, Ohio State. Well, Michigan drops off the schedule,

438
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,120
Speaker 1: Michigan State drops off the schedule, Penn State stays off

439
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 1: the schedule. In fact, the only Eastern team they play

440
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: that was above above among the Big four last year

441
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 1: was Ohio State. Thank of Ohio State everything they wanted

442
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:48,679
Speaker 1: in Columbus only lost that game by five. Now they

443
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,119
Speaker 1: get Ohio State at home, so they've got the potential

444
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 1: for that one. And then you look at the West.

445
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,679
Speaker 1: The West is wide open. There's no dominant team. Probably

446
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:59,360
Speaker 1: their toughest three foes that they face are Iowa, Northwestern,

447
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 1: and Wisconsin. Guess what they get all three of them

448
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 1: at home in Lincoln. It wouldn't surprise me this year

449
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 1: if Nebraska went from four wins up to double digit wins.

450
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,359
Speaker 1: And I'm actually picking them to win the Big Ten West.

451
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 1: Of course, a lot of the media members also read

452
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,159
Speaker 1: the magazine, so they were recently the pick to win

453
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,679
Speaker 1: the Big Town West by the Big Ten media. But

454
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 1: there there's still an undervalue team. I believe that total

455
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 1: only about eight and a half on them. All Right,

456
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:26,959
Speaker 1: Nebraska is an interesting choice. Uh. You mentioned Wisconsin, you

457
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 1: mentioned Northwestern, and you mentioned Iowa. Northwestern is one of

458
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 1: those teams that always fascinates people and always fascinates me

459
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:42,400
Speaker 1: because they are so inconsistent. And tell me about your

460
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 1: thoughts on Northwestern right now in the West, especially as

461
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:49,160
Speaker 1: they match up against Iowa and Wisconsin. Yeah, and as

462
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,120
Speaker 1: you touch on, this is a Northwestern team that can

463
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 1: probably way Pat Fitzgerald coaches. He's a great underdog coach.

464
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 1: I mean, his teams have pulled a ton of upsets

465
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 1: in recent years, but so and had a great favorite.

466
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,400
Speaker 1: His teams have been upset quite a bit. You can

467
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,920
Speaker 1: almost make your money just playing the underdog in Northwestern games.

468
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 1: But when I look at Northwestern this year, I think

469
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:10,920
Speaker 1: your wild card factor is going to come down to

470
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 1: the quarterback. Hunter Johnson comes in. He was my number

471
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:16,879
Speaker 1: one rate of quarterback when he signed at Clemson, he

472
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 1: is now here at Northwestern. I think he could come

473
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,159
Speaker 1: in and do even better than when Clayton Thorson did

474
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:24,679
Speaker 1: last year. Remember Thorson only had a seventeen fifteen ratio.

475
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 1: They've got a fairly deep backfield Isaiah Bowser, Mowten, and Anderson.

476
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 1: There offensive lines of question mark. They only have two

477
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:33,880
Speaker 1: starters back, but defensively they got the brand, They've got

478
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 1: the names for one. Scaziano and Patti Fisher are both

479
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 1: back up front on the defensive front seven. The secondary

480
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 1: is my question mark there. And then you look at

481
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 1: their schedule this year. They're gonna be an underdog at

482
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: Stanford home against Michigan State, at Wisconsin, at Nebraska home

483
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 1: to Ohio State, and at Indiana. But nobody expected him

484
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 1: to win the Big Ten West last year, and yet

485
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 1: they want it by two games. So they're one of

486
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 1: those teams that on paper, they look like they should

487
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 1: win six game games this year. Now the question is

488
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 1: will they win just six games or will Pat Fitzgerald

489
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 1: do what Path Fitzgerald normally does. It's a great play

490
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 1: you make about them being an underdog team. They're always

491
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: the team that is more fun to root for when

492
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 1: they are an underdog than when they're a favorite. You know,

493
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 1: last year chat as a dog, Northwestern went six oh

494
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 1: and one against the spread as a favorite oh and five.

495
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 1: There's a little bit of a trend and that's pretty

496
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:30,959
Speaker 1: much been the m O for Path Fitzgerald since he

497
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 1: took over. God, that's fascinating that he is that bad

498
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 1: of a favorite coach. Yeah, he got, he got. He

499
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 1: had a couple of years where he did okay as

500
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 1: a favorite. But the general thing is it's always us

501
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 1: against the world philosophy for Path Fitzgerald. That works when

502
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 1: you're the underdog doesn't work quite so much when you're

503
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 1: the favorite. Alright, so let's let's think about that. That's

504
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: an interesting thread to follow for a second. How do

505
00:29:55,520 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 1: you think about coaches when it comes to hand capping

506
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 1: in college football? You know, I think the coach is

507
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 1: a big part of the game, and some coaches thrive

508
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 1: you know at home and maybe not so much on

509
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 1: the road. Some coaches thrive as a dog, not as

510
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 1: a favorite, and then there are some that like the

511
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 1: crush opponents when they're in the favorites role. But uh,

512
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 1: I think we find more head coaches do well like

513
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 1: Tom Herman of Texas for example, He's another one that's

514
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 1: just like uh Path Fitzgerald. Tom Herman the Texas is

515
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 1: one of the best underdog coaches out there. In fact,

516
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 1: Texas usually pulls upsets when in the underdog role. You

517
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 1: look at his two years as Texas, he is four

518
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 1: and one as an underdog, but as a home favorite

519
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 1: he's just three and seven. And that plays back to

520
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 1: his days at Houston when he was a poor home

521
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 1: favorite but an amazing dog and pulling upsets of ranked

522
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 1: teams on a regular basis. So once again with Tom Herman,

523
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 1: and I think this is going to change in Texas eventually,

524
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 1: when he gets the talent where it's no longer being

525
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: in that underdog role coming in all of a sudden

526
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 1: they turned into a favorite role. I think he'll become

527
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 1: a better favorite head coach down the road. But right now,

528
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 1: Tom Herman does not do well as a home favorite,

529
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 1: but as great as an underdog. That doesn't bode well.

530
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 1: I actually disagree with you because I think that doesn't

531
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 1: bode well for Tom Herman, that he's always able to

532
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 1: to coach up his team and get them excited and

533
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:20,720
Speaker 1: come up with a game plan against superior talent. But

534
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 1: he's at a place where he's always going to have

535
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 1: superior talent in the long run, as long as he

536
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 1: lasts that long, and to not be able to find

537
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 1: ways to utilize that or to outgame plan against the

538
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 1: people who are then chasing him. You know, in this world, like,

539
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 1: there are people who are great at being chased, and

540
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 1: there are people who are great at being on top,

541
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 1: And like, that's an interesting scenario for a lot of

542
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 1: coaches who step up from mid tier programs into high

543
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 1: tier programs. As far as betters are concerned, he's a

544
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 1: really fascinating case study. Yeah, he definitely isn't you know.

545
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 1: The one thing I think will improve for him, though,

546
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 1: is the fact that when he was at Houston and

547
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 1: when he was here at Texas his first couple of years,

548
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 1: I personally don't think Charlie Strong did a tremendous job recruiting.

549
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 1: I don't know if he had Texas talent his first

550
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 1: couple of years. You look at their defense this year,

551
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 1: they only have through returning starters. But when I go

552
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 1: player for player down the line on their defense, I

553
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 1: think they probably have more athletic talent defensively than they

554
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 1: had last year or the year before, and once Tom

555
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 1: Herman starts getting those athletes where maybe he'll do better

556
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 1: as a favorite, once he has the players that could

557
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 1: be in the role of favorites. Maybe he's been favored

558
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 1: in the past because of the upsets he's pulled, not

559
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: necessarily because of the talent he was rolling out of

560
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 1: the field. All right, So you mentioned Nebraska is your

561
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 1: most improved and for years this has been a fill

562
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 1: steel staple like you are able to identify. You mentioned

563
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 1: Florida this past year. A couple of years ago, you

564
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 1: had Michigan in there. If you were thinking about your

565
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: other most improved teams either probably teams that are going

566
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 1: to have value when it comes to season win totals. Uh,

567
00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 1: give me your other most improved teams. Let me give

568
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 1: you a couple of them out of the box, and uh,

569
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 1: one of them is going to be Florida Atlantic. And

570
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 1: Florida Atlantic as a team had a bad year last year,

571
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 1: but Lane Kiffin still there. I like the overall talent

572
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 1: that they have, and they're playing in a division where

573
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 1: it's easier They're playing in a conference where the c

574
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 1: USA Conference, where it's easier to move from the bottom

575
00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 1: of the top they were. They sort of bottom out

576
00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 1: last year at five and seven. Remember how dominant they

577
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 1: were down the stretch in two thousand and seventeen. I

578
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 1: think they're going to have a big improvement. But a

579
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,000
Speaker 1: couple of teams I'm really high on this year. Florida

580
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 1: State my number three most improved team. Now, Florida States

581
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,959
Speaker 1: had two bad years in a row. They basically had

582
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 1: to reschedule the game just to get to a Bowl

583
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 1: two years ago, and then last year had their first

584
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 1: losing season since nineteen seventy six. Been a long time

585
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 1: now Willie Tagger to be in the hot seat. When

586
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 1: I talked to Coach Tagger, and here's here's probably an

587
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 1: interesting point for you with the coaches conversations, Chad. You know,

588
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 1: Coach Tagger told me that he felt the players at

589
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 1: Florida State were a little hurt by jimbo Fisher going

590
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 1: to what they received as a lateral job Florida State

591
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 1: to Texas A and M, and that that hurt the

592
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 1: transition a little bit last year because the players didn't

593
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:10,399
Speaker 1: really understand, hey, he's leaving. But now this year, all

594
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 1: the players he feels are bought into the program. They

595
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:14,839
Speaker 1: are a pretty deep team. When you look at Florida State,

596
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 1: they do go too to three deep in most positions.

597
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 1: They look good getting off the bus. I think we're

598
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:20,959
Speaker 1: going to see Florida State be a much improved team

599
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 1: this year, and they don't have to go through the

600
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 1: shock factor of their longtime head coach leaving for perhaps

601
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:29,240
Speaker 1: what what the Florida State players thought was a lateral

602
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 1: move job then the number four team, how about Virginia

603
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 1: Tech and hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on,

604
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:38,720
Speaker 1: go ahead, point of order, point of order. Uh, Florida State,

605
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:42,520
Speaker 1: I'm glad you brought them up so uh. The Action

606
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 1: Network has a college football podcast starring Colin Wilson and

607
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 1: Stucky and they did their a SEC preview. Everyone should

608
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 1: go listen to it. It's brilliant. Colin Wilson, who was

609
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:56,720
Speaker 1: our lead college football analyst, is all in on Florida

610
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 1: State as you are. He thinks this could be a

611
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:02,479
Speaker 1: ten team, and he looks at their defense and how

612
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 1: they've significantly improved every year. And one mate, one note

613
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 1: he made on the podcast, which I thought was fascinating,

614
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 1: was that Florida State succumbed to bad field position last

615
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:15,680
Speaker 1: year that their offense could not do anything. Their offensive

616
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,240
Speaker 1: line could not get a push, and so the defense

617
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 1: was constantly put in a bad position as far as

618
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:23,360
Speaker 1: where the other team was lining up in the field

619
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 1: when they got the ball back. Um, how does Florida

620
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 1: State improve that new quarterback? Offensive line is still struggling.

621
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,359
Speaker 1: Tell me why you see improvement in Florida State other

622
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:37,759
Speaker 1: than sort of Willie Taggert having a second year and

623
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 1: the players mentally being in a better place. Yeah. I

624
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,359
Speaker 1: agree that the defense was better than the yards per game,

625
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 1: and that's sort of collapsed at the end of the year.

626
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 1: Last year. You know, they gave up fifty nine that

627
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 1: climbs on forty seven ends he stay once the season

628
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 1: had lost hope, there's their season sort of spiraled at

629
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 1: the end. Uh. Now, the offensive line has been a

630
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,399
Speaker 1: problem for five years, but they figured to be better

631
00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:01,720
Speaker 1: on the offense of line second year of the blocking schemes.

632
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 1: And they do have the skill players. I mean Terry

633
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 1: a wide receiver, mckittie at tight end, Matthews a receiver.

634
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:09,879
Speaker 1: You look at their backfield and and when I talked

635
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,279
Speaker 1: to coach Taggard last spring and was going over the team,

636
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 1: He said, Phil watch Kalin Labourne at running back. This

637
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 1: guy could emerge. I know we've got running backs coming back,

638
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:19,719
Speaker 1: but he could be in for a big year. And

639
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 1: then Labourne gets injured, I think it was the first

640
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 1: game of the season, was out for the year. Well,

641
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 1: Labourne's back acres back, Grant Grant back, so they are

642
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 1: loaded in the backfield. And I'm gonna agree with that assessment.

643
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 1: I think with a little bit better offensive play, that

644
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:37,479
Speaker 1: defense could very well be dominant this season. And in fact,

645
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 1: I think they were a top twenty defense despite the

646
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 1: fact they gave up thirty one point five points per

647
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 1: game last year. This year, my computers called for him

648
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 1: to give up just twenty two points per game. That's

649
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 1: an improvement of nine points per game and should be

650
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:54,920
Speaker 1: one of the larger improvements in college football. Uh. Colin

651
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 1: Wilson went so fast to say he could see Florida

652
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 1: State being a crazy to one long shot to make

653
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 1: the playoffs. Uh, you know, sixty five to one. I'd

654
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:09,880
Speaker 1: like to play roulette chat. So I'm always wanted to

655
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:12,040
Speaker 1: throw a few bucks on the number straight on because

656
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 1: it could hit. Uh it, it'd be worth it. I mean,

657
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 1: you know, if they played Clemson and beat him on

658
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 1: the road, then they'd be right there and with the

659
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 1: shot to get there. But it's just worth a roulette chip.

660
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 1: That's about it, all right. So you're gonna say, Virginia Tech,

661
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 1: I didn't I cut you off there, and I I

662
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 1: wouldn't even say that I didn't mean to cut you off.

663
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:32,800
Speaker 1: I deliberately cut you off. I love it and sometimes

664
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:34,880
Speaker 1: I need to be cut off. Chat tell me about it.

665
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 1: Tell me it's interesting you're going to a CEC teams

666
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:40,799
Speaker 1: for improvement. Tell me about forgetting Tech. I'll let me

667
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:42,759
Speaker 1: tell you. And now it's the conversation I have with

668
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 1: their defense coordinator Bud Foster last year and going over

669
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 1: the defense with them. Uh. Now, you know, Budd Foster

670
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:51,479
Speaker 1: is one of the best defensive coordinators in the game,

671
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 1: and naturally you expect Virginia Tech defense to be great

672
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,880
Speaker 1: every year. Well, we get to the end of the conversation,

673
00:37:57,920 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 1: I'm like, coach. You know a lot of coaches out there,

674
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,919
Speaker 1: you know, like Flack over in Minnesota. We're a young team.

675
00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 1: We're a young team. They all say they're a young team.

676
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:09,759
Speaker 1: But generally you're going to have six underclassman because you

677
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:12,800
Speaker 1: signed freshman, do you have a redshirt freshman class, sophomore class,

678
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:15,520
Speaker 1: juniors and seniors. And there's attrition at the top classes,

679
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:19,719
Speaker 1: so most teams are six underclassman. But talking to coach

680
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 1: Foster last year, we got the end a conversation they

681
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 1: go coach. Every coach out there says they're young, but

682
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 1: you are young and you can't afford to lose anybody.

683
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 1: He's like, yeah, as long as we keep our front

684
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 1: front personnel, the starters, okay, we'll be okay. And then

685
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,839
Speaker 1: they lost two or three players start projected starters over

686
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 1: the summer, and then they lost another two players in

687
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:39,840
Speaker 1: the first couple of weeks of the season. And what happened.

688
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 1: Virginia Texas defense was not very Bud Foster is. Last

689
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 1: year they gave a four thirty nine yards per game

690
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:49,479
Speaker 1: and thirty one points per game last year. Now this year,

691
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 1: that defense has ten returning starters coming back, so they're

692
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:56,359
Speaker 1: gonna be much stronger on the defensive side of the ball. Offensively,

693
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:58,200
Speaker 1: I like what I saw to Ryan Willis. He's a

694
00:38:58,239 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 1: big quarterback. He's six four two three. He took over

695
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:04,319
Speaker 1: mid season last year. He's a Kansas transfer. Uh, They've

696
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 1: got a good offensive line in front of him. I

697
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 1: think the offense will be fine. And then you look

698
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 1: at their schedule this year. You know, the Boston College game,

699
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 1: I think could be pivotal right out of the box.

700
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:14,359
Speaker 1: If they win that game, you're gonna see a team

701
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 1: playing with a lot more confidence. They do have to

702
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 1: play at Miami and at Order Dame, but they get

703
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 1: most of the other toughest opponents at home. You know,

704
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 1: a couple of their road games this year, Georgia Tech

705
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:25,919
Speaker 1: is a road game, Boston College of road game fall

706
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 1: into the winnable category. So I've got Vtique contending with

707
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 1: Miami in the A C C Coastal and Virginia Texts

708
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 1: another one of those teams off a rare losing season

709
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 1: that usually bounce back and bounce back big. This is

710
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:42,719
Speaker 1: an interesting question, if I do say so myself, A

711
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 1: lot of a lot a lot of people will say, like,

712
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 1: what are the stats that you look at most when

713
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 1: trying to power rank a team for the next year.

714
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 1: And you mentioned Virginia Tech defense has ten returning starters,

715
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 1: but you also mentioned they gave a hundred thirty nine

716
00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:01,319
Speaker 1: yards a year last per game last year. So why

717
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 1: is it that having these players who did not play

718
00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 1: particularly well returning is a value in terms of Virginia

719
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 1: Tech potentially improving. Yeah, in this case, I mean, just

720
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 1: like I said, going through and when you go through

721
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 1: a position by position with a coach like I do

722
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 1: you really get a good feel for what the team is.

723
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:22,839
Speaker 1: And this was an inexperienced squad and his basic thing

724
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 1: last year was, you know, we'd get to the player like, hey,

725
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 1: I like the size, I like the speed, but this

726
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,200
Speaker 1: guy just hasn't seen the field. He needs to gain

727
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 1: some experience. I like the size, like the speed, but

728
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 1: this kid just hasn't seen the field. And that was

729
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 1: a refrain from the start of the first player on

730
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 1: the defensive line to the last player of the secondary.

731
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 1: Then to lose the five players that they did was huge.

732
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 1: They just were extremely an extremely green team last year.

733
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 1: But he did like the talent and we talked even

734
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 1: last year when we were having the conversation that this

735
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:56,800
Speaker 1: year's defense would be much better because they had the size,

736
00:40:56,840 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 1: they had the speed, but they would now be experienced.

737
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 1: So I think that's a huge factor as long as

738
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:03,440
Speaker 1: the talents there, and the talent was there. I remember

739
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:06,240
Speaker 1: Budd Foster's defenses. They were on a lot of stunts

740
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 1: and a lot of blitz is. And when you have

741
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 1: a young team, one player out of place can sometimes

742
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 1: result in a big play for a touchdown, whereas when

743
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:15,479
Speaker 1: that player has experienced all of a sudden that door

744
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 1: closes and they stopped the play. Bud Foster leaving at

745
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,359
Speaker 1: the end of this year, how to hear about that?

746
00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 1: I think he's one of the best defensive coordinators out there.

747
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 1: I love the whole lunch lunch bucket thing, and uh

748
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:33,840
Speaker 1: just it's a big loss for college football. And you know,

749
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 1: that was probably the best move that Justin Plenty made

750
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 1: when he took over, because generally when a first year

751
00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:41,919
Speaker 1: head coach takes over a team, he's got a learning curve.

752
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 1: He's gotta learn the player's strength and weaknesses. Players have

753
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:46,839
Speaker 1: to learn new systems. He kept Bud Foster, so there

754
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:49,720
Speaker 1: was no problem with the defense in his first couple

755
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:51,719
Speaker 1: of years at the Helm and all. He had to

756
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 1: do his work on the offense. But I'm gonna miss

757
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:59,319
Speaker 1: coach Foster, alright, So we got five more minutes. There

758
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:01,400
Speaker 1: happen to be four teams they get to make the playoff.

759
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 1: Two teams they get to play a championship and one

760
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 1: team that gets to win. Give me your four two

761
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 1: in your one. Uh. Naturally, Alabama and Clumps are there.

762
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 1: Clumps will be a seven team point favorite in every

763
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:16,280
Speaker 1: game this year. Alabama waill be a double digit favorite

764
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 1: in every game. Both teams are gonna have unstoppable offenses.

765
00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 1: The other two teams that won with I went with Georgia. UH.

766
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:24,799
Speaker 1: Georgia being a team that you know, the last two

767
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 1: years when they played Alabama, they've trailed for a grand

768
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:30,120
Speaker 1: total of one minute in four seconds. Other than that,

769
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 1: they've either been tied or ahead in the games. UH

770
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:35,799
Speaker 1: and could easily have beat Obama both years. They're an

771
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:38,160
Speaker 1: even better team this year with swift of running back

772
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 1: from a QB. And I've got the favorite in all

773
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:43,319
Speaker 1: twelve games this year. And then the other one going

774
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:46,359
Speaker 1: on the box here chet. You know, the last eleven years,

775
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 1: I've picked Ohio State higher than Michigan. UH. Eleven straight years.

776
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 1: I've only been wrong once. Ten of the years Ohio

777
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 1: States finished higher. This year, I'm taking Michigan, and Michigan's

778
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:58,320
Speaker 1: got the defense with Don Brown, They've got the quarterback

779
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 1: with Say Patterson who's now in the spread offense, which

780
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:03,400
Speaker 1: I think is a big plus. They've got four offensive

781
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:05,480
Speaker 1: lineman who are potential All Americans and have got a

782
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 1: great special teams. Plus they have the schedule where Notre Dame,

783
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 1: Michigan State, in Ohio State are all at home, so

784
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 1: I think Michigan can make the playoffs this year. Then naturally,

785
00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:15,840
Speaker 1: for the two, I'm gonna have to go with the

786
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 1: big boys. I'd love to go out of the box

787
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:20,760
Speaker 1: and pick somebody else, but Alabama and Clemson just loaded

788
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 1: and for the championship game this year, I'm given a

789
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:27,440
Speaker 1: slight edge to Alabama for these factors. I think both

790
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:29,319
Speaker 1: they have the number one, number two offense. You can

791
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:31,319
Speaker 1: put Clemson one, you can put Alabama one. They're going

792
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:34,680
Speaker 1: to both be within a point of each other offensively. Defensively,

793
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:37,279
Speaker 1: last year, Bama only had three returning starters. This year

794
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:40,520
Speaker 1: they have six. So when you look at what Clemson

795
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 1: lost on that d line, three first round draft picks

796
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:45,719
Speaker 1: in a third round draft pick, I give Alabama slight

797
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:49,320
Speaker 1: edge defensively. I give Alabama a slight edge on special teams.

798
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:52,800
Speaker 1: And then the final factor, Clemson's gonna enter the season

799
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:54,839
Speaker 1: number one. They're gonna blow out all other opponents, are

800
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 1: gonna be number one into the playoffs. Do you know

801
00:43:57,120 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 1: that in the air four Meetings Chat, the number one

802
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:03,319
Speaker 1: team has actually lost all four times. So that's got

803
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 1: to be the Alabama's advantage once again in the title

804
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 1: game and throwing that forty four to sixteen chip on

805
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:12,719
Speaker 1: their shoulder. Last year in Alabama entered the playoff, there

806
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:14,919
Speaker 1: was talking is this the greatest team of all time?

807
00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:16,719
Speaker 1: And I think the players brought into it this year

808
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:18,279
Speaker 1: the line of the playoff and I think Nick sab

809
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 1: and I'll just say, you know what, forty four to sixteen,

810
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 1: get your heads in in gear, and I think we're

811
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:26,720
Speaker 1: going to see Alabama repeat our return, I should say,

812
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:29,680
Speaker 1: as national champs this year. So I feel like I

813
00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 1: missed one. Wait, you said Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, Georgia, Georgia.

814
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:37,239
Speaker 1: That's right, Georgia, Georgia. I totally forgot about Georgia. You

815
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 1: had that great stat that Georgia was only down for

816
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 1: a minute four against Alabama in their games. Um, wow,

817
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 1: Alabama Clemson again, You've got Alabama running. You know the

818
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:53,920
Speaker 1: good news chat? If you're rooting, So it's not Alabama Clemson.

819
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:57,839
Speaker 1: You know, last year when when Clemson hosted Syracuse, they

820
00:44:57,840 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 1: were a four touchdown favorite, they actually trail by two

821
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 1: scores in the fourth quarter. They need a third string

822
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 1: quarterback to complete a fourth down, fourth and ten pass

823
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:08,920
Speaker 1: to keep their final scoring drive alive. Had they lost

824
00:45:08,960 --> 00:45:11,880
Speaker 1: that game, Syracuse would have been seven and one. They

825
00:45:11,880 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 1: would have been seven and one in the a c C.

826
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:16,319
Speaker 1: Syracuse would have been in the a SEC title game

827
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:18,759
Speaker 1: and clump somebody to miss the playoffs last year. I

828
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:22,320
Speaker 1: remember watching that game. That was a great game, yeah,

829
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 1: no doubt, and like I said, would have been some

830
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 1: of Compson where to miss the playoffs last year. Listen,

831
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:31,000
Speaker 1: this is why they play the games, Phil. It can't

832
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 1: just be what you say in your magazine is going

833
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 1: to happen. They gotta get on the field. And I

834
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:40,080
Speaker 1: love that aspect. And the beautiful thing about college football

835
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 1: chats with the four team playoffs, every weekend is important.

836
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 1: There are no no gimmes. You can't you can not

837
00:45:45,640 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 1: afford to slip up. Every weekend is a playoffs, Phil.

838
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:53,120
Speaker 1: That's right, all right, everybody go to Phil Steel dot com.

839
00:45:53,360 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 1: By this magazine. You need to read it. If you're

840
00:45:56,080 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 1: gonna do anything related to college football this year, watch pick, rank, argue, debate.

841
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:05,719
Speaker 1: I know every single person in media is reading this

842
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 1: magazine right now to get ready for college football. You

843
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:11,800
Speaker 1: should too, all right. I want to thank my guest

844
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:15,800
Speaker 1: Phil Steel for coming on the Favorites from the Action Network,

845
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:19,840
Speaker 1: and of course Bob Scucci, book maker to the world.

846
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:23,280
Speaker 1: He will be back with us all season and long.

847
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 1: This has been the Favorites from the Action Network. I

848
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. Download from Apple, podcasts from radio dot Com,

849
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:34,600
Speaker 1: slash the Action Network. Wherever you get your podcasts, Subscribe, unsubscribe,

850
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:39,880
Speaker 1: rate review, Tell your friends until next time. I Love you,