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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough? There were running again? So

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Speaker 2: smoothe so sweet stipid sixteen just glorious textecution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop with mind? Good buddy, and

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Speaker 2: that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 4: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The one is left.

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Speaker 4: Too, the wide eyed drilled bibus How old earth?

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Speaker 1: Pick that happens? Helloy one, Welcome back to Wondergo, the

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Speaker 1: soccer betting podcast from the Action Network. My name's Michael

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Speaker 1: ee Buff and joining me for this episode basically every

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Speaker 1: episode are my colleagues co hosts and friends BJ Cunningham

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Speaker 1: and Anthony Dubundo, and together the three of us. First

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Speaker 1: of all, we'll wish you a happy New Year, as

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Speaker 1: this will be our last get together before we get

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Speaker 1: into twenty twenty four, and to celebrate, we're going to

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Speaker 1: break down the two Premier League matches on Thursday, as

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Speaker 1: well as all ten matches coming our way over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: Touch on some La Liga Syria a giveaway or give

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Speaker 1: out our three leg money line, underdog parlay and our

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Speaker 1: favorite bets in the Premier League for this upcoming weekend.

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Speaker 1: But before we do all of that, a reminder that

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Speaker 1: Wonder Goal is proudly presented by Bet three sixty five

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Speaker 1: be present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia.

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Speaker 1: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions apply. Okay, we'll start

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Speaker 1: with Thursday. We'll start with Tottenham and Brighton and it

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Speaker 1: should be a pretty.

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Speaker 4: Fun one here.

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Speaker 1: Spurs are a plus one fifty road favorite, very nominal

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Speaker 1: world favorite, Brighton plus one sixty two and the draw

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Speaker 1: here is plus two to seventy five.

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Speaker 2: Anthony.

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Speaker 1: Spurs come out with the win over Everdon the other day,

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Speaker 1: but it was kind of more of the same, right,

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Speaker 1: they just are clinical and they win the big moments.

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Speaker 1: Otherwise they were I mean, I don't know how they

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Speaker 1: how do they win that game? And I think we've

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Speaker 1: left a bunch of Spurs matches asking ourselves that exact question.

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Speaker 1: So I think there's some value on Brighton here at home.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree entirely. You know, this line has moved

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Speaker 2: towards Spurs over the last three or four days, but

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Speaker 2: I think Brighton have some clear advantages here. First of all,

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Speaker 2: they have two Actra days arrest. They played Thursday, whereas

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Speaker 2: Tottenham played Saturday. They're at home, and if you just

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Speaker 2: go by the raw data, like these two teams haven't

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Speaker 2: been that different this year. Brighton have conceded in every

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Speaker 2: match that has certainly hurt them, and they've dropped points

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Speaker 2: as a result of not being able to keep enough

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Speaker 2: clean sheets or any clean sheets for that matter, but

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Speaker 2: it pretty much the only clear advantage for me is

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Speaker 2: Tottenham in the goal because over the course of the

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Speaker 2: season the Caaro has a the best underlying numbers by

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Speaker 2: post shot expected goals in the entire league, and the

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Speaker 2: combination of Steel and Verbrugen for or Brighton have been

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Speaker 2: a minus five point three, which is second worst only

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Speaker 2: to Forest in terms of shot stopping. Not great to

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Speaker 2: the two teams. Love to bet On have the worst goalies,

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Speaker 2: but Brighton have actually conceded fewer expected goals this year

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Speaker 2: than Spurs. And if you asked any casual fan who's

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Speaker 2: got the better defense, you would obviously they would probably

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Speaker 2: tell you Tottenham, but really it hasn't been the case

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Speaker 2: even in eleven on eleven. You know, you can take

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Speaker 2: out like the outlier game that Spurs had against Chelsea

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Speaker 2: expected goals per ninety minutes allowed and eleven on eleven

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Speaker 2: not including penalties, Brighton one point three to one, Tottenham

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Speaker 2: one point three to five. So they're pretty comparable and

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Speaker 2: maybe the whole profile I think this matchup. You know,

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Speaker 2: Tottenham will press, they will commit numbers forward regardless of

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Speaker 2: the score. It's probably been so bad at holding leads

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Speaker 2: this year. You know, ah ball is going to a

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Speaker 2: ball regardless of the score line, and so that kind

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Speaker 2: of invites pressure onto Brighton, which Brighton has wonted. Brighton

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Speaker 2: wants to bait the trap. They want you to press

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Speaker 2: them so they can try to get their transition moments

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Speaker 2: where I think They're attack is just as good as

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Speaker 2: Spurs on the break. The biggest concern here for Tottenham,

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Speaker 2: like the spine of the team is Emerson Royale, Ben

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Speaker 2: Davis and Oliver Skip because of injuries. Romero is out

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Speaker 2: Van even still out of course pursue us suspended the

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Speaker 2: spine triangle of the team. The two defensive center backs

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Speaker 2: and the defensive midfielder are just not Premier League top

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Speaker 2: half quality players at those positions, and I really think

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Speaker 2: it's hard for them to overcome that defensively, not even

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Speaker 2: just like tactically, but personnel wise. And you saw it.

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Speaker 2: I mean there were tons of space for Everton to

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Speaker 2: break into. Everton, of course are more direct, but I

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Speaker 2: think Brighton or just as capable playing through pressure. No

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Speaker 2: matoma for Brighton here. That hurts, but Ferguson will be back.

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Speaker 2: So really I like the goals at home. I'm surprised

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Speaker 2: by this line. I think Everton or make Brighton a

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Speaker 2: favorite about a quarter goal favorite. Have these teams real

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Speaker 2: leftily even on a neutral So I like the Seagulls

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Speaker 2: and if Yacario continues to stand on his head, maybe

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Speaker 2: to them can squeeze by here. But we've seen other

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Speaker 2: fraudulent defenses get exposed this week and I think Tottenham

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Speaker 2: is one that's going to go down on Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: I think that's what we'll put bj anything for you

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Speaker 1: on Spurs and goals.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree. I'll just add on to Anthony. What

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Speaker 4: Anthony said is that for Tottenham to be successful in

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Speaker 4: this match, they are going to have to hit home

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Speaker 4: with their high press because you know Arsenal obviously was

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Speaker 4: able to do that against Brighton when they were at home.

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Speaker 4: Tottenham has, you know, the best pass for defensive action

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Speaker 4: in the Premier League. But the problem is is when

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Speaker 4: Brighton beats that first line of the pressure, Like Anthony said,

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Speaker 4: the spine is not there. From the normal you to

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Speaker 4: have normal center backs and central midfielders. We've seen the

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Speaker 4: center back pairing of either Ben Davies, Eric Dyer and

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Speaker 4: sent Royale, whatever combination you want to put there basically

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Speaker 4: know the fact that Romero and Van de vend are

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Speaker 4: not there. We've seen three matches of that and Todham

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Speaker 4: conceded six point four expected goals and five big scoring chances.

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Speaker 4: Like it was a very bad performance. And what's been

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Speaker 4: interesting I thought with Brighton is that teams like Brentford

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Speaker 4: and Crystal Palace are actually coming up and trying to

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Speaker 4: press them. You know, you watch the Crystal Palace match.

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Speaker 4: Their only goal came up from a high turnover and

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Speaker 4: obviously that's what Toddam is going to do here. But

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Speaker 4: overall for the season, Brighton has been the second best

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Speaker 4: build up completion percentage, so they're still a very good

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Speaker 4: build up team, and I think the loss in Matoma

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Speaker 4: is a little overblown. He's obviously great in terms of

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Speaker 4: ball carrying, but his goal production numbers and assist numbers

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Speaker 4: haven't really been that good this season. You only been

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Speaker 4: a point three to five act she plus XA for

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Speaker 4: ninety minutes. Brighton can very easily just swing a Dingra

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Speaker 4: out to the left side. They can play gile Pager

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Speaker 4: on the right and Ferguson up top and it could

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Speaker 4: be a very formidable attack. So I agree with Anthony.

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Speaker 4: I think this line's a little crazy. I have Right

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Speaker 4: and projected at plus one seventeen. It's you're gonna want

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Speaker 4: to fade Toddham with about their two center backs because

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Speaker 4: of how exposed they leave themselves with their high pressing

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Speaker 4: and their build up structure. So a good spot here

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Speaker 4: for Brighton, a good get right spot for Right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and posta Koglu has said that you know, he's

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Speaker 2: given Hoiberg and Die or you know, basically like the

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Speaker 2: you can go seek out a transfer now talk. So

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Speaker 2: I don't imagine either of them feature in this match

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Speaker 2: given that, but you don't know for sure. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: he prefers Royale, you know. I mean if I told

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Speaker 2: you at the beginning of this season Emerson Royale was

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Speaker 2: going to start at center back for Spurs multiple matches,

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Speaker 2: you would have been like, that's not great.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 2: Now they are gonna buy somebody in January, so you know,

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Speaker 2: we'll reassess so when we get there. But Ramera is

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Speaker 2: gonna be out a couple months here, so they're gonna

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Speaker 2: have some struggling times here up ahead on the fixture list,

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Speaker 2: and I think that starts Wednesday, so we'll say go goals, okay.

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Speaker 1: Arsenal and west Ham up next, the Gunners a chunky

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Speaker 1: minus three three four favorite on the three way line.

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Speaker 4: West Ham by Liverpool according to something yeah yeah dominated.

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Speaker 4: The warden wasn't even We've.

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Speaker 1: Got We've got to about that match coming up.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna have to We're gonna have to recap that.

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Speaker 2: I think feel like we should recapital little bit.

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Speaker 4: I mean what west Ham talking about. They got not dominated,

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Speaker 4: they didn't get dominated.

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Speaker 2: I had a feeling this was coming, so I tweeted

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Speaker 2: that I was going to take a victory lap on

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Speaker 2: the pots necessarily that Liverpool completely dominated the match. It

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Speaker 2: was just that Arsenal were not able to keep control

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Speaker 2: of it whatsoever, and they really, I thought, struggled and

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Speaker 2: and really like the center backs played really well and

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Speaker 2: that snuffed out the attack. And we're going to talk

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Speaker 2: about Arsenal's defense in a minute, because I'm still very

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Speaker 2: bullish on it. But Arsenal, Arsenal had Arsenal no real

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Speaker 2: chances after the opening fifteen minutes, and thus like that

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Speaker 2: that's kind of my Liverpool couldn't keep control. They couldn't

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Speaker 2: keep control, and they struggled to do so. And as

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Speaker 2: a result, you know, Liverpool kind of got the game

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Speaker 2: style they wanted. Liverpool were able to turn it into

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Speaker 2: chaotic and get on the break a lot. They didn't

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Speaker 2: create much off of it except for the time they

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Speaker 2: completely bypassed the midfield and then Salah, you know, did

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Speaker 2: zen Schenko. So you know, from a perspective of like

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Speaker 2: the title race, I don't think it changes anything, to

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Speaker 2: be honest, I think it helped Manchester City a lot,

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Speaker 2: who should very clearly still be the favorite. But you know,

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Speaker 2: Arsenal's attack not doing anything against Liverpool after the fifteenth minute,

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Speaker 2: you know, just doesn't scream to me like a team

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Speaker 2: that's taking a step forward in attack. And I still

201
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Speaker 2: think they're worse Enos. I'm good to bet the under

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Speaker 2: in this game on Wednesday. I already did and I

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Speaker 2: hate it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this one has no betting interest for me at all.

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, exact score one nil Arsenal maybe

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Speaker 1: like this is yeah, this looks like a sleepy sleepy.

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Speaker 4: I mean west Ham has been playing the dregs lately.

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Speaker 4: They haven't really been playing really stiff competition. You know,

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Speaker 4: the best couple of teams that they've played, you know,

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Speaker 4: as of recently. Recently they got pounded by Liverpool in

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Speaker 4: the NFL Cup. They played obviously against Tottenham and one

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Speaker 4: two to one on two just hilarious errors from Tottenham.

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Speaker 4: But outside of that, they've been kind of just playing

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Speaker 4: bottom tier teams for a long time now, and we

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Speaker 4: haven't really seen them go up against like obviously outside

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Speaker 4: the LIVERPOOLFL Cup match against the top top tier. And

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Speaker 4: I'll get to this when we talk about Brighton and

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Speaker 4: west Ham later in the in the in the podcast,

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Speaker 4: because I don't really have any better interest here, but yeah,

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Speaker 4: you know, west Ham defense has been pretty bad against

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Speaker 4: the top top tier teams and they've been playing a

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Speaker 4: lot of teams in the bottom half of the table

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Speaker 4: and overperforming against them. So this might be a nice

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Speaker 4: game for Arsenal aults maybe minus two and a half

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Speaker 4: for Arsenal team total over two and a half something

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Speaker 4: like that, to really just hold in on the west

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Speaker 4: Ham defense, who is a little overdue to concede quite

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Speaker 4: a few.

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Speaker 1: Yeah that continue to was it five their goal differential

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Speaker 1: over the last three matches, it's even five to four

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Speaker 1: five against they allowed five goals to follow them and

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Speaker 1: then one three nil and two nil against Wolves and United.

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Speaker 1: I feel like that's a pretty fair kind of statement

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Speaker 1: on what does west Ham team is. It's just they're

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Speaker 1: when they're when it goes wrong BJ And this, I

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Speaker 1: guess kind of lends it to your point. It's gonna

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Speaker 1: go wrong very splendidly and you and it could go

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Speaker 1: wrong against anybody. But yeah, like I said, I got

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Speaker 1: nothing here, Anthony.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So like west Ham, if you think about their attack, uh,

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Speaker 2: it's extremely efficient on set pieces, so if they get

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Speaker 2: a lot of those, and they're dangerous, but how many

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Speaker 2: they really getting here against Arsenal, a team who's you know,

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Speaker 2: damn near pitched a shutout against Brighton at home in

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Speaker 2: their last match, and have you know most of their

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Speaker 2: back line fully healthy here? And and like i'd prefer

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Speaker 2: if tomy Asu played over Zinnchenko for defensive purposes, but

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Speaker 2: given how much possession they're going to have, it's probably

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Speaker 2: gonna be Zinschenko. I don't love. That's the only thing

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Speaker 2: that scares me about this under is zin Chenko against Kudus,

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Speaker 2: because otherwise I think west Ham's attack is pretty much

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Speaker 2: drawing dead. I don't think they have much of a

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Speaker 2: path here. They have no like quality midfield. Uh, you know,

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Speaker 2: passing to play through the press that ares gonna have.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be a lot of balls over the top.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be a lot of like if they can

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Speaker 2: get pakatah in dangerous areas, then they're gonna be really dangerous.

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Speaker 2: But like, can they even get to that point? I

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Speaker 2: don't really know. I'm kind of skeptical of that. I

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Speaker 2: have west Ham like pretty low on my like how

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Speaker 2: many goals projection, And like I said, you know, we've

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Speaker 2: talked about this Arsenal attack. We're dealing with two attacks

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Speaker 2: here that we're at the halfway point of the season.

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Speaker 2: Both of these attacks are out of the top eight

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Speaker 2: in non penalty expected goals for in the season, and

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Speaker 2: Arsenal have ticked up a little bit since Jaysus came back.

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Speaker 2: But you know, then they go and put in a

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Speaker 2: performance against Liverpool where they they failed to really create

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Speaker 2: anything after the first twenty minutes. So I just don't

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Speaker 2: really see Arsenal running up to score here. I think

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Speaker 2: this is a grinded out one nail, two nail kind

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Speaker 2: of win for the gunners. I show a little bit

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Speaker 2: of value on Arsenal, but I'm going to pass on

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Speaker 2: that and instead take under three. I really think Arsenal

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Speaker 2: would have to score three for this to go over.

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Speaker 2: Maybe four. I you know, Arsenal shout out win. Maybe,

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Speaker 2: But I'm going to take the Gunners at home to

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Speaker 2: continue to be elite defensively, where they have conceded basically

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Speaker 2: next to nothing all year.

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Speaker 1: Long since October first, nine point six expectacles against by

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Speaker 1: understat and that's four goals better than the next BES

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Speaker 1: defense in the Premier League. Okay, Loutontown and Chelsea up next.

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Speaker 1: Lutontown is plus four to twenty five at home, Chelsea

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Speaker 1: minus one sixty seven on the road. That's pretty steep

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Speaker 1: rice to have to pay on Chelsea as a road favorite.

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Speaker 1: And the draw here is three to one. BJ, you're

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Speaker 1: the only one with anything here. Just a little bit

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Speaker 1: of context. Since October first, Chelsea once again by understats model,

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Speaker 1: and they've played one more match then Liverpool and Villa

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Speaker 1: and two more than City, so a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a grain of salt. But they lead the Premier League

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Speaker 1: in expected points yet h it's the same story.

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Speaker 2: Oh again?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, here we go again?

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Speaker 4: Is right?

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Speaker 1: What do you got FORSBJ?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? I actually I am showing a little value on

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Speaker 4: Chelsea here, but actually like the over a lot more.

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Speaker 4: You know, best price you can find is minus one

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Speaker 4: thirty five right now, and you hit the head and

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Speaker 4: nail on the head, Michael is that their underlying numbers

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Speaker 4: are awesome. Twelve point five expectacles created in their last

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Speaker 4: six matches with a penalty obviously, but created close to

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Speaker 4: three against Crystal Palace on Wednesday. And I think the

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Speaker 4: biggest thing for Chelsea now is they have a proven

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Speaker 4: finisher that's actually healthy. That's Chris and Kunku Hones started

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Speaker 4: today alongside Nico Jackson. And the biggest thing for Chelsea

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Speaker 4: they've changed their build up structure. You know, early on

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Speaker 4: in the season they were using a three to one

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Speaker 4: six and it was just incredibly disjointed because obviously there

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Speaker 4: were a lot of new players and once they got

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Speaker 4: into the final third they just honestly everything just kind

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Speaker 4: of fell apart. They've switched to a three two five,

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Speaker 4: which is a lot of what a lot of the

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Speaker 4: elite teams are using nowadays, and so with a disjointed

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Speaker 4: build up structure, like they were still averaging to one

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Speaker 4: point seven non penalty expected goals for ninety minutes with

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Speaker 4: again person with a structure that wasn't working for the

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Speaker 4: personnel they had. Now they have a good build up

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Speaker 4: structure with a proven finisher than there, and I think

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Speaker 4: their offense is going to continue to get better. And

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Speaker 4: Lowtontown I love Loutontown to death, but their defense has

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Speaker 4: been a disaster since the start of November twenty point

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Speaker 4: seven expected goals allowed, only allowed fourteen. Last match against

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Speaker 4: Sheffield United, who hadn't even cleared one point five expected

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Speaker 4: goals in any Premier League match this season, they allowed

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Speaker 4: over three expected goals. They're obviously without Tom Lock there,

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Speaker 4: they're gonna be like East Kabore and Marvelous Nakamba, so

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Speaker 4: basically three of the cornstones of their defense. This is

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Speaker 4: this could get really really bad. So again I am

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Speaker 4: showing value on Chelsea. But Chelsea's transition defense has not

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Speaker 4: been that great this season. Their nineteenth and final thirty

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Speaker 4: box entry converser rate allowed. So Lowtontown does have a

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Speaker 4: path because they're obviously gonna play very direct, projecting three

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Speaker 4: point six goals for this one. So I do like

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Speaker 4: over two and a half and minus one thirty five,

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Speaker 4: and I am showing value on Chelsea, but you got

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Speaker 4: to pay a pretty steep price for that, and I

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Speaker 4: may end up being on them. The problem not.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and Cuckoo was okay today. I didn't think he

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Speaker 2: was like awesome, played seventy minutes, created one chance, one

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Speaker 2: shot himself. There was some feeling out period. I'm excited

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Speaker 2: to see what this looks like with Sterling back potentially

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Speaker 2: and Palmer, because now you have a lot of shots.

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Speaker 2: Like between Kuncku, Jackson, Palmer and Sterling, you're getting a

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Speaker 2: top four level production in shots. The problem has actually been,

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Speaker 2: like you said, BJ, the defense conceded over one xtg

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Speaker 2: to day to Palace, like huge chance to a least

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Speaker 2: a just falling asleep at the back post. The midfield

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Speaker 2: is really energetic and good in ball winning, but the

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Speaker 2: back line man, it's like very uncertain. So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: generally lean this way as well. I think Chelsea scores

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Speaker 2: multiple here, but not gonna play this one.

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Speaker 1: Okay. On to Villa and Burnley next. Villa's prohibitive minus

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Speaker 1: two seventy five favorite at home, Burnley traveling at seven

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Speaker 1: to one draw plus four twenty five. Anything for you, BJ, No, if.

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Speaker 4: I were to play anything. It might be some aston

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Speaker 4: Villa alts here because of what happened in the previous

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Speaker 4: meeting at turf More. Burnley tried to press aston Villa

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Speaker 4: and they just played right through them and created a

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Speaker 4: chance after chance after chance. Villa they're going to play

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Speaker 4: this dangerous high line. But does Burnley really have the

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Speaker 4: guys to get in behind and actually create chances off it.

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Speaker 4: I'm not so sure about that. Their build up team

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Speaker 4: like they want to play short passes through teams, so

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Speaker 4: it's going to be very difficult for them to actually

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Speaker 4: play through whatever aston Villa is doing. And I know

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Speaker 4: it's in Iamray and he's never going to stop using

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Speaker 4: this high line. But when you're up to nothing at

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Speaker 4: Old Trafford, like maybe just slink back into a defensive

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Speaker 4: structure and not just give you nine the chance to

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Speaker 4: just play balls in behind. But what do I know

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Speaker 4: that's right. I'm just a podcaster, I'm not a soccer manager,

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Speaker 4: so but yeah, if I were to play anything, it'd

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Speaker 4: be smassing Villa alts. Burnley's offense continues to just produce

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Speaker 4: next to nothing, and they're not going to be able

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Speaker 4: to play balls over top of aston Villa's high line.

378
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Speaker 4: So I'm not I don't really project any guys in

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Speaker 4: this one some passing, but if I were to go anywhere,

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Speaker 4: that's where I'd go.

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Speaker 2: Big. And I've been disagreeing a lot. You know, we

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Speaker 2: had a really fun time in the action that were

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Speaker 2: discord on Boxing Day. At least I had a really

384
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Speaker 2: fun time. I don't think he did because BJ was

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Speaker 2: on Villa and it was too nil and I was

386
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Speaker 2: on the United team total over and there was a

387
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Speaker 2: brief moment where we were going to catch both bets

388
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Speaker 2: because you know, United ties it up and then Villa

389
00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:43,640
Speaker 2: had a huge chance through him. Again they didn't quite

390
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Speaker 2: get there. But I agree generally in this matchup, Like

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Speaker 2: I think that Burnley doesn't have the runners to expose

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Speaker 2: and they don't have the passing range to get in

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Speaker 2: behind against Villa successfully you know, negotiate the off side

394
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Speaker 2: trap effectively. But like the thing is with Villa team

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Speaker 2: and the reason that I really just think they're seriously

396
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Speaker 2: overvalued at this point and you've seen it now, Like

397
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Speaker 2: they struggled to break down a very low Sheffield block,

398
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Speaker 2: then they couldn't hold off a very mediocre Manchester United

399
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Speaker 2: team with a two goal lead who kept getting him

400
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Speaker 2: behind over and over again. When you play that style,

401
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:21,080
Speaker 2: you don't even need to be You can be great

402
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,320
Speaker 2: at doing the off side trap over and over again.

403
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Speaker 2: But a team can get lucky once and time up

404
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Speaker 2: a run correctly, a long ball over the top, and

405
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Speaker 2: then all of a sudden you're down a goal, or

406
00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,359
Speaker 2: all of a sudden, you know this match is more competitive,

407
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Speaker 2: Like I think Burnley can keep enough of the ball

408
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Speaker 2: here because they're going to try to play through pressure,

409
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Speaker 2: and I don't think they're going to have a ton

410
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Speaker 2: of problem with Villa's press, which is like pretty average

411
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Speaker 2: from a pressing perspective, like it's not a good press.

412
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Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm tempted by the under here just because

413
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Speaker 2: I think both attacks are I think viose attackers just

414
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 2: overvalued in general, and I think Burnley doesn't really match

415
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,399
Speaker 2: up well here. But this one for me is a

416
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Speaker 2: pass because I Burnley even against Liverpool, like they got

417
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Speaker 2: away with it because Trafford was really good, but like

418
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,440
Speaker 2: they conceded almost three post shot XG in Liverpool and

419
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Speaker 2: probably like weren't really ever in that game, so that

420
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Speaker 2: was at home, So I'm not really interested in backing

421
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Speaker 2: them here.

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Speaker 4: Do you want to know who Villa has coming out

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Speaker 4: of the FA cupbreak? Michael?

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Speaker 1: Is it the revenge games?

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Speaker 2: The Everton revenge game?

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Speaker 4: Yavert, it's match.

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Speaker 1: That's Right's right?

428
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:26,120
Speaker 4: That'll be a fun It'll be a fun one.

429
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Speaker 2: Is it at Everton? It's got to be at Everton?

430
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Speaker 4: Right, Everton?

431
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Speaker 2: I'm want to be honest, like Everton should be a

432
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 2: favorite in that match. I don't think there up yet.

433
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:36,919
Speaker 2: Everton should one hundred percent be a favorite. If they're not,

434
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet them again.

435
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:40,920
Speaker 4: They're like the seventh best team in the Premier League now.

436
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,440
Speaker 2: It is interesting though, Like you know, we'll talk let's

437
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 2: say that conversation for two weeks from now.

438
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:50,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's we won't do the January seventh podcast here

439
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:53,200
Speaker 1: on December twenty seventh, we'll do the December twenty twenty

440
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 1: eighth podcast, which continues with Pallace and Brentford the Bees.

441
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:01,440
Speaker 1: This is it's getting a little pair shaped here for

442
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:07,880
Speaker 1: for Brentford. Four on the spin they've dropped and uh

443
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:09,359
Speaker 1: I didn't call it that today.

444
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:13,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was like a hilarious mistake. Like the three

445
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:15,919
Speaker 2: of the four goals were just like the most like

446
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 2: Tomfoolery goals you could have possibly given up and like, yeah, okay,

447
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 2: that counts against them, but like, structurally they were fine.

448
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 2: They created more chances than wolves. It was just like

449
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 2: that day. I don't know, but they've had four in

450
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 2: a row. So now Thomas Frank you know, oh boy,

451
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 2: I think he's fine obviously.

452
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 4: But he's he's not even close to getting fired.

453
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:38,400
Speaker 1: Don't know, but I was like, we've we always talk

454
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 1: about like the times to bet Brentford, and they kind

455
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 1: of seem to be every week because we should find

456
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 1: to spend that time to spot.

457
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 2: But this is a good that's the thing they've been.

458
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 2: They've been good as a favorite this year against these

459
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:51,400
Speaker 2: lower table teams. So now we just bet them every

460
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 2: week because it used to be, well, you know, when

461
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:54,639
Speaker 2: they're a dog, we like them, but when they're a

462
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 2: favorite maybe past. But now it's like, I mean, the

463
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,640
Speaker 2: market's just wrong. Surely we know better, but.

464
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 1: I think I like I like these spots just as

465
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 1: much as I like them when they're punching up in

466
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:08,439
Speaker 1: a big six, right, Like four in a row, they've lost,

467
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,679
Speaker 1: they've won one of their last seven. This is Bilo

468
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 1: Brentford Man and against the Palace team that I also

469
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 1: don't think is as bad as the recent results has shown.

470
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:23,199
Speaker 1: I mean, they were unlucky today to lose to Chelsea.

471
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,120
Speaker 1: Was at the ninety fifth minute or whatever, and that

472
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 1: that penalty to go down to one.

473
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:30,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, dumb penalty.

474
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:31,360
Speaker 1: Yeah bad.

475
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 2: They run They run the gauntlet here too. They also

476
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:38,160
Speaker 2: just played Liverpool City, Brighton and Chelsea in a four

477
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 2: match period over the festive fixtures.

478
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 1: Here, and you look at Brentford and you thought that

479
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 1: this part of the schedule would be a good time

480
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 1: for them to make a little bit of hay with Luton, Brighton,

481
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,919
Speaker 1: Sheffield United, Villain and Wolves. You'd expect them to come

482
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 1: out with more than just three points over that five

483
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 1: game jaunt. But you look at the Brentford expected goals

484
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 1: and underlying that tricks over the couple months here since

485
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 1: October first, not bad at all. Plus plus six, just

486
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:09,360
Speaker 1: just north of plus six in terms of expected gold

487
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 1: differential by expected points in that time time period there

488
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:18,399
Speaker 1: right around where Newcastle, Bourne, Myth and Everton are like.

489
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 1: This is still a really good team and I think

490
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 1: that they're better than Palace. I know they're going on

491
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 1: the road here, but as an underdog. I'm in bj.

492
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:30,720
Speaker 4: Go ahead, Anthony.

493
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 2: They have a positive expected goal difference in their stretch

494
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:34,679
Speaker 2: where they have one win in seven games.

495
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:36,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, there, this is a good team.

496
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 4: That's right, we come. Yeah. So I do like Brentford.

497
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:42,919
Speaker 4: I'll say that for maybe the underdog segment, but I

498
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,719
Speaker 4: actually do like the over here. What's funny is that

499
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 4: since Brentford got promoted the Premier League, this matchup has

500
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 4: ended one to one or zero zero at all five

501
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 4: times that they have faced off against each other. But

502
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 4: what I will say about Crystal Palace is there starting

503
00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:03,159
Speaker 4: to to play more open. They're starting to press a

504
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,880
Speaker 4: little bit more and they're starting to try to build

505
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 4: out of the back. And for me it kind of

506
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,239
Speaker 4: makes sense like Roy Hodgson sees it as Okay, I

507
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 4: have essay and I have at least say, these two

508
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 4: unbelievable dribblers ball carriers, we probably should get them the

509
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 4: ball instead of just trying to send long balls to them. So,

510
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:24,199
Speaker 4: especially today against Chelsea and against Brighton, christ Palace was

511
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:25,880
Speaker 4: trying to build out of the back. They were trying

512
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 4: to create high turnovers, which goes against what Roy Hodgson

513
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 4: normally does, and it has shown up in the underlying

514
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 4: data as well, because in eight of their light last

515
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 4: nine matches there has been at least two point five

516
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 4: expected goals created and for the season, Palace matches are

517
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 4: averaging about to close to two point seven expected goals

518
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 4: per ninety minutes. Even today against Chelsea three and a

519
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:56,400
Speaker 4: half expected goals created from open play For Brentford, from

520
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 4: their perspective of what kind of has gone wrong here,

521
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 4: I think it's pretty clear they're missing Aaron Hicky and

522
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 4: Rico Henry at the full back position. Like russ Lev

523
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:10,640
Speaker 4: and Godos today were not that great. I mean, ros

524
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 4: Lev was the one who made the back pass that

525
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 4: gave Wlang the easy goal. But again, like Campey said,

526
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 4: outside of just like three like dumb mistakes that just

527
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 4: don't typically happen with Brentford, they were fine. Like they

528
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 4: were pretty good. They were very good against Wolves. They

529
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 4: created over to expected goals. The big thing for them

530
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,159
Speaker 4: as well is the theas Jansen started out on the

531
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 4: bench and came off the bench in the second half.

532
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 4: He's a free kick taker, which is obviously huge for Brentford,

533
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:39,239
Speaker 4: and Brentford is a team similar in the mold of

534
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 4: Sean diyches Everton where if they feel they can come

535
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:45,399
Speaker 4: up and press you and disrupt build a play, they

536
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 4: will do it, and they will do it effectively. Normally

537
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 4: they do slink back into their defensive structure, but they

538
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,119
Speaker 4: were trying to press Wolfs today. Obviously they fell behind early,

539
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 4: but when they've played some of these lower tier teams,

540
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 4: they will press them their fifth and pass per defensive actions.

541
00:26:57,880 --> 00:26:59,639
Speaker 4: So I think this one is a little bit more

542
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 4: high scoring then expected. So I mean I projected right

543
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,479
Speaker 4: at two and a half goals. You know, over two

544
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 4: and a half is still at plus one twenty and

545
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 4: like Anthony says, every one of these primarily matches goes over,

546
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:11,920
Speaker 4: so let's take it over.

547
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 2: Yeah. So Brentford's other biggest problem is that fleck and slash.

548
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 2: He's just yeah, he's just bad. That minus five point

549
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 2: three post shot coming into today third worst behind Brighton

550
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:28,119
Speaker 2: and Forrest. So that's been an issue. You know, they

551
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 2: went from a good shot stopper and Rya over the

552
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 2: past few years to a bad one. It has hurt

553
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 2: their defensive numbers. It's hurt them at the margins, and

554
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 2: that's where you see, you know, all of these losses

555
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 2: in games that have kind of been coin flippy. But

556
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 2: you know, I think there's some positive aggression coming ultimately

557
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 2: for this Brentford team who's run really poorly, so it

558
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 2: would be Brentford or nothing. But I like this Palace

559
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 2: team as well, So you know, I'm kind of neutral

560
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:54,679
Speaker 2: in this game and don't really have a strong opinion

561
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:54,919
Speaker 2: on it.

562
00:27:55,280 --> 00:28:00,440
Speaker 1: Overall, Sheffield United is twenty five to one bet three

563
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 1: six five to beat Manchester City?

564
00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 2: Way too short?

565
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:05,640
Speaker 1: Should could it? Could it grow?

566
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 4: This is?

567
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 1: This is the type of line you should This is

568
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 1: the type of line your del twin uh you get

569
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 1: like a Terrence Crawford level boxer and it's in a

570
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 1: tune up match.

571
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 2: What percentage of our listeners you think know who Terrence

572
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:23,199
Speaker 2: Crawford is?

573
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 1: Those those of those listeners in the greater Omaha era

574
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 1: area for sure, because Bud is a proud, beautiful, beautiful Omaha,

575
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 1: Nebraska native. But I mean, obviously I'm gonna sprinkle a

576
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 1: little bit of the Sheffield United money line. Maybe we'll

577
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 1: get three man City red cards and and still and

578
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 1: and and get lucky here at BJ.

579
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 4: No de Bruyne like that kid, You could make a

580
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 4: case there like that's about I know I didn't play today,

581
00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 4: so maybe you can make a case that without those

582
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 4: two Sheffield could sneak in a transition attack and possibly

583
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 4: do it.

584
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 1: I mean, I have twenty eight to one winner we have.

585
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 4: And Sheffield was I believe over they fifteen to one

586
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 4: against Villa and just couldn't close it out at the

587
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 4: very end on that Friday.

588
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 2: Did ant attempt to shot until the eighty fifth minute.

589
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 4: I know. And that's what's going to take your anthony.

590
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 4: I have Sheffield projected at fifty six to one, so

591
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 4: if it grows to sixty to one, I will be

592
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 4: on Sheffield.

593
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 1: Other than I I think that twenty five to one

594
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 1: has to get a little has the double, Yeah, we've

595
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 1: got to double that.

596
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 2: At forty or fifty. I would think about it, but no,

597
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 2: I mean, look, no, Sheffield's played better, right, Their defensive

598
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 2: low block has been more effective.

599
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 1: We're getting it before, We're getting it before the market

600
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 1: takes notice of the Chris Wilder.

601
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 2: But that's the thing though, like it is, only it

602
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 2: has taken a little bit of notice because the look

603
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 2: ahead was like two and three quarters and now it's

604
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 2: like two and a half. So you got like a

605
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 2: quarter gold bump. I mean they're minus two and a

606
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 2: half minus one twenty five City is and I don't

607
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 2: want any part of the other side. I do think

608
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 2: Hollin is ultimately back here for this match at least

609
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 2: to you know, feature a little bit, maybe plays a half,

610
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 2: get them some match fitness here before for next week

611
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 2: before the you know they're gonna have another break. Maybe

612
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 2: they just hold him out. I mean they could win

613
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 2: this match without him pretty comfortably. But yeah, I mean

614
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 2: City today, you know the biggest thing for me right

615
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 2: now Stones goes out again, that's a big loss in

616
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 2: terms of like title contention. We've seen this defense run

617
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 2: so bad. Edison has been a disaster from shot stopping perspective,

618
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 2: their defense has fallen off a good bit. Like that's

619
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 2: the main area of regression for City. They don't dominate

620
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 2: games at the same level they did last year because

621
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 2: they let teams have the ball more and do more passing.

622
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 2: But like Sheffield's not doing any of that. Sheffield didn't

623
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 2: even try to attack Villa because like you can a

624
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 2: little bit, but they didn't even try. This is a

625
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 2: very much easy pass for me, Like the easiest pass

626
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 2: of the season.

627
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 1: Okay, Wolves and Everdon. Now Wolverhampton is a of this season.

628
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 1: I know Wolves plus one fifty five. Everton is a

629
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,240
Speaker 1: slide underdog at plus one eighty seven on the three

630
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 1: way line. The draw here pays pays out plus two thirty.

631
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 1: I do think that it is pretty simple here, like

632
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 1: Everdon even today wasn't It didn't make me think any

633
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 1: less of them. The only thing that is concerning is

634
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 1: you can see a couple of players are just kind

635
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 1: of out on their feet at times because the squad

636
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 1: is so thin and they played so many games and

637
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 1: every game is so high stakes and emotional, and that

638
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 1: the fixture pile up that we're in right now. So

639
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 1: like that's the one thing here is that there their

640
00:31:55,160 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 1: lack of depth because of their shall we say crazy

641
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 1: the transfer policy over the past half decade, uh is

642
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 1: a little concerning. But I still think in the key

643
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 1: areas of the pitch there they'll be fine. Yeah, I

644
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 1: this is this has been one of the better, the

645
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 1: stronger Premier League sides for the past couple of months.

646
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 1: Nothing's really changed here. Bet On team they are the

647
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 1: bed On Toffees.

648
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 2: BJ that that that key area's comment you just made

649
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 2: maybe think of the famous David Moyes quote the Manchester

650
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 2: United need to improve in multiple key areas including creating chances,

651
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 2: passing and defending. Yeah, so Everton have Everton have improved

652
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 2: in the key areas of there's.

653
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 1: Still they're still set up. They're still set up well

654
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 1: with with personnel there, like the strikers are fine. Yeah,

655
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 1: there's a good good.

656
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 4: They are a good team. There's really no there's like

657
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 4: I have in my notes here, like they're just straight

658
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 4: up good. Like there's just nowhere else to describe.

659
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 2: There's nothing exciting happening at the club. It's just it's

660
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 2: just a good team this year. And here's the thing.

661
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 2: Here's how you know they're a good team Because I

662
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 2: know we have some skeptical listeners out there who say

663
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 2: we just bet Everton every week, which we do, and

664
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 2: as a podcast we need to you know, acknowledge that

665
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 2: we do that every week.

666
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 1: And I think, well, that's just regression from last season.

667
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 1: I was the only one betting them because they're getting

668
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 1: dealt at like eleven to one every week.

669
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 4: We bet a lot of bad teams on this podcast.

670
00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 4: This is a good team that we bet.

671
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're the best team. I bet every year they

672
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 2: are a They are a good bad team. That's a

673
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 2: good way to put it. But here's the thing. When

674
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 2: this match was played, because we're actually it's kind of exciting,

675
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 2: we're actually on the reverse fixtures now for the first

676
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 2: time all season, we can say, back when these two

677
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 2: teams played last time, well back when these two teams

678
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 2: played last time, Everton closed a pick em at home.

679
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 1: That game should have had eight goals in it.

680
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 2: And that game, yeah, that was the famous I mean,

681
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 2: just the most ridiculous nill nill until the eighty ninth

682
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 2: minute when Stutgart legend Sasakisleitchitch came on and won it

683
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:03,000
Speaker 2: for Wolves. Hilarious that that was like three months ago.

684
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 2: But they closed a pick them at home in that game.

685
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 2: Now they're a little bit of a dog, but like

686
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:09,719
Speaker 2: basically a pick them on the road. So that's how

687
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 2: much the market has upgraded Everton. And that's in the

688
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:14,960
Speaker 2: context of the fact that Wolves are a lot better

689
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 2: than we thought at the beginning of the year two.

690
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,360
Speaker 2: So Wolves went from like this team could get relegated

691
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 2: market level rating. They've been improved, and despite that, Everton

692
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 2: has improved so much that they're now being dealt a

693
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 2: pickham on the road at Wolves, but that being said,

694
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 2: they were dealt to pick them at Forest like two

695
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 2: weeks ago. I don't really agree that they should be

696
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 2: a significant favor here. BJ.

697
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:37,719
Speaker 4: I love Everton here. I have Everton projected at plus

698
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 4: one fifteen and I don't really think time that wrong.

699
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 4: I think the market is a little too high on

700
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:45,919
Speaker 4: Wolves Everton. This season, Michael has won the expected goals

701
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 4: battle against teams in the bottom half of the table

702
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 4: every single match except for one against Crystal Palace on

703
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 4: the road and if you remember, they scored very early

704
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:56,120
Speaker 4: and just kind of sat in defense the rest of

705
00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:58,839
Speaker 4: the match, so put up a bunch of expected goals

706
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:00,960
Speaker 4: against them. But other than that, they have out created

707
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 4: their opponents near them in the bottom half of the

708
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:07,480
Speaker 4: table in every single match. And you know, Wolves obviously

709
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:11,279
Speaker 4: has they've been giant killers this season at home, like

710
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:13,760
Speaker 4: they've beaten Tottenham, they've beaten City and they've beaten Chelsea.

711
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 4: But they actually haven't been that great against teams in

712
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:20,359
Speaker 4: the bottom half of the table. They have played nine

713
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:22,759
Speaker 4: matches against teams in the bottom half and we have

714
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 4: a minus three point five expect a goldffrenchial.

715
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 2: They're just everything is good at the bottom half of

716
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 2: the table.

717
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 3: Team well, they're currently sitting in they're currently sitting in

718
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:37,280
Speaker 3: the bottom of the table. Anthony, that works, But no,

719
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 3: the moral of the story that is, Nia wasn't my

720
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:43,319
Speaker 3: main point. My main point is is that I don't

721
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 3: really think Wolves is that great of a transition offense.

722
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:50,239
Speaker 3: Like obviously today they you know, are gifted a couple

723
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:54,280
Speaker 3: of transition attacks, but their final third box entry conversion

724
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 3: rate is twenty eight percent, that's nineteenth.

725
00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:00,799
Speaker 4: In the Premier League. So yes, they've hit on a

726
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 4: couple a couple of transition attacks and converted them and

727
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 4: that's wonderful, but consistently getting the ball when you get

728
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 4: when they're getting these transition attacks from the ball the

729
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 4: final third in the penalty area, they have not been

730
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 4: doing that. And even overall for the season they're underlying numbers.

731
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:15,439
Speaker 4: I mean they're only what a one point two five

732
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 4: actually non penalty actually for ninety minute that's fourteenth in

733
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 4: the Premier League. They're just underlige numbers. Is really not

734
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:24,719
Speaker 4: that great and who knows if Flang is actually gonna

735
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:27,840
Speaker 4: play in this match. Obviously last time, like that's a

736
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:29,400
Speaker 4: big loss. We don't know if Neto is going to

737
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:31,959
Speaker 4: be back for this one, so if no Whang, no Netto,

738
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 4: it's uh leaves the Wolf. Wolves attacks severely limited. So

739
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 4: and even just looking at pure expected goldenfferential, Everton's plus

740
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:43,719
Speaker 4: five point three Wolves is minus eight point two. So

741
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,799
Speaker 4: I don't agree that Evertons should be a straight pick,

742
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 4: and I think shure they should be a road favorite.

743
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:52,359
Speaker 4: So I love them drawn a bead at plus one oh.

744
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:54,840
Speaker 2: Four, I should say that, like I was still probably

745
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 2: beat Everton and by the time this game kicks off.

746
00:36:57,120 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 2: One thing about Wolves, We've always said on this podcast

747
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 2: that you know, they don't get a ton of chances,

748
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 2: but they're very clinical, very efficient at scoring in the

749
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 2: final third. After all those years of them being so

750
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 2: good at getting chances and missing them all, they are

751
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 2: finally the team overperforming their their undernine numbers.

752
00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 4: It was because of yeah, yeah, go with like nine

753
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 4: goals off of like four expected or something like that.

754
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 4: It's crazy. So yeah, he's out. I mean, it's not

755
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 4: good Everton spot.

756
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 1: Okay, the Manchester United roller coaster continued. We saw every

757
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 1: bit of it in one match over the week that

758
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:39,240
Speaker 1: was amazing.

759
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 4: How are they still in the top half of the table.

760
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 1: They're gonna win the title. Man, They're gonna win the title.

761
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 1: This is uh, they might win a double here.

762
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 2: I'm really enjoying the overreaction. It's like this wasn't even

763
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 2: as good as the Chelsea win.

764
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 4: Actually wasn't really that good the beginning.

765
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:59,120
Speaker 2: With yeah, and and yet like you know, the one

766
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 2: goal they conceded was hilariously flukey, but like they're not

767
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 2: going to get that opportunity against Forest. Here's the thing,

768
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 2: you know, we do this a lot, like we say, okay,

769
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 2: did this one mean? Did this match say more about

770
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 2: one team or the other? I go to my grave

771
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:16,279
Speaker 2: saying that even though I cashed, you know, my United

772
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 2: bet on Thursday or whatever the hell day, it was

773
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 2: Tuesday's Tuesday that said more about Villa than it did United.

774
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:33,959
Speaker 2: And I think Nottingham Forrests win against Newcastle probably said

775
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 2: more about newcastle transition to defense that you're gonna get

776
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 2: into when we get to the Liverpool match. I think

777
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:42,759
Speaker 2: when you look at these two teams right now though

778
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 2: trend lines, I think Forrest is much more likely trending

779
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 2: up like we've seen now one hundred and eighty minutes

780
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 2: of new Noball they got a really bad red card

781
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:54,839
Speaker 2: unlucky against Bournemouth in a match that ended up being

782
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 2: pretty even after even after the red card. Probably could

783
00:38:57,719 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 2: have had a penalty too. It was kind of a

784
00:38:59,200 --> 00:38:59,880
Speaker 2: dodgy handball this.

785
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:01,880
Speaker 4: Night.

786
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 2: They were fine that match, then they completely destroy Newcastle

787
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 2: on the break Wood.

788
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 4: And came in and played for them.

789
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 2: What it felt like is his name Chris Wood now,

790
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:20,840
Speaker 2: because Chris Wood entered that match with two point six

791
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 2: ext on the entire season, and he put up two

792
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 2: point three x g and three goals in one.

793
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:29,799
Speaker 4: Match at St James Park, at St James Park, at

794
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 4: St James Park where you used to revenge spot buddy.

795
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 2: So but yeah, I can't I think, you know, I

796
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 2: still don't trust as far as attack. But they can

797
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:43,880
Speaker 2: still hit unit on the break here United playing that

798
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 2: the Ericsson menu double pivot will be vulnerable in transition

799
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 2: one thousand percent. And I'm still not really a believer

800
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 2: in Hoyland, even though he finally got his goal, like

801
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 2: he's at like point twenty five xtually alrighty, the ball

802
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 2: just fell to home in the box. So I actually

803
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 2: think this should be a straight pick them. So the

804
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 2: fact that Forrest is plus plus money on the draw

805
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 2: note bet makes me lean toward the trees ride the

806
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 2: new manager wave that.

807
00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:12,719
Speaker 1: Uh.

808
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 2: I don't know how much difference it's going to make

809
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:17,320
Speaker 2: in the long run, but in the short term I

810
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 2: like this this change for Forrest United Man what a

811
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:23,319
Speaker 2: wild right.

812
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 4: Who do they have coming out of the break?

813
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 2: I think they have a big match like during the uh,

814
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:32,880
Speaker 2: during that fixture run where there's like half Premier League slates,

815
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:36,399
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure there's a big matchup coming. I think

816
00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 2: maybe Tottenham. Actually, yeah, it actually is.

817
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:42,360
Speaker 4: Well, first we get to bit bet Wigan Athletic Michael

818
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 4: on the money line at home against them in the

819
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:47,920
Speaker 4: FA Cup, and then yeah, at home against Tottenham, and

820
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 4: then the reverse fixture against Wolves at Wolves.

821
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:55,720
Speaker 2: There we go geez uh okay, I actually see myself

822
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:59,280
Speaker 2: betting Man United against Tottenham depending on where that line opens.

823
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:00,919
Speaker 4: Well, we will say get there.

824
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:03,319
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna keep I'm just gonna keep, you know,

825
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 2: doing this thing where I just bet on the fact

826
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 2: that this team doesn't actually have an identity and they're

827
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 2: just not really a real team. So in certain spots

828
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:13,359
Speaker 2: you fade them and then as soon as everybody's out

829
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:15,880
Speaker 2: on them again, you hop back on, you know. So

830
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 2: they they get the big win against Chelsea, everybody's all in,

831
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:24,359
Speaker 2: then they get smoked by Bourne with uncompetitive Byron. Everybody's out.

832
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 2: Then they steal a result against Liverpool.

833
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:30,720
Speaker 1: I lost my sound like exactly what I said earlier

834
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 1: this year with this team, which is you just like

835
00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 1: just wait for the the ground swell to go one

836
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 1: way or the other and you just go the other

837
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 1: way with them. It's that's right.

838
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 2: In and then I'm gonna be out again against Forest.

839
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,800
Speaker 2: Then everybody they'll lose the Forest. Everybody will be out,

840
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 2: and then I'll bet them against Tottenham and then they'll

841
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 2: be Tottenham and then everybody'll be back in.

842
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 1: It took you, It took you, and then it'll be

843
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 1: four months. But you finally, net Man, I think.

844
00:41:57,440 --> 00:41:59,800
Speaker 2: Net Net, we've come out ahead at our Manchester United fades.

845
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 2: I have to check the tape, but I feel like

846
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 2: BJ's bank roll is looking a little bit nicer this

847
00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:09,160
Speaker 2: Christmas thanks to Eric Tenhag and mansch United Football.

848
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 4: Club without a doubt Fulham and Arsenal up next.

849
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:15,880
Speaker 1: Fulham at four to one at home right now, obviously

850
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:20,799
Speaker 1: Arsenal is playing for this match on Thursday, so a

851
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:24,239
Speaker 1: little tricky here to break down. Gunners are minus one

852
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 1: seventy five draws plus three fifty nothing for me.

853
00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, it couldn't fool me. Yeah it's a pass. It's

854
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:34,200
Speaker 4: passed for me too. I project this pretty close to

855
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 4: around where the market has it. We'll obviously see what

856
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 4: Arsenal looks like on Thursday against west Ham, but you know,

857
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 4: Fulham's a pretty similar team to west Ham in terms

858
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:44,800
Speaker 4: of what they do out of possession. So the reverse

859
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 4: fixture was hilarious in this one because if you remember,

860
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 4: Fulham scored on like a fluke Aaron Ramsdale pass like

861
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:55,399
Speaker 4: right to Andrespreira and then they scored off a set

862
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:57,680
Speaker 4: piece at the very end. Otherwise they did like literally

863
00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:00,839
Speaker 4: nothing in Arsenal created like three expected goles. So maybe

864
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:02,960
Speaker 4: Arsenal minus one and a half just because they're you know,

865
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 4: the best team in the Premier League and they're gonna win.

866
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:06,759
Speaker 4: They're gonna win the title as opposed to what other

867
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 4: people say in this podcast. So but outside of that.

868
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 2: To pass, uh, you know, Fulham is who we thought

869
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 2: they were after the last three matches. I've I've enjoyed

870
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:21,720
Speaker 2: my Fulham fades. Zero goals in the last three matches,

871
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:24,879
Speaker 2: uh well, one goal in the last four in all competitions.

872
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:27,720
Speaker 2: Since that Sun run, they went on where they scored

873
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:31,280
Speaker 2: sixteen and four since then. They got shut out at Newcastle,

874
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 2: they got an own goal fluke against Everton, shut out

875
00:43:34,120 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 2: by Burnley, shut out by Bournemouth. They'll get back, They'll

876
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 2: get Raoul back, but like I think, this is also

877
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:45,360
Speaker 2: shut out by Arsenal. Question is how many's Arsenal score?

878
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 2: Do you want to lay the minus one seventy? I

879
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 2: don't think they get the seven. My thought was I

880
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:53,319
Speaker 2: liked under three and I thought to myself, surely this

881
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:55,359
Speaker 2: line is going to be three, and then I went

882
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:58,239
Speaker 2: on and it's not even three. So I'm probably gonna

883
00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 2: pass two and a half. Just feel super Yankee because

884
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:03,239
Speaker 2: Fulham will somehow luck box a goal in this match,

885
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 2: you just know it. And Arsenal probably wins two one.

886
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 2: But I don't want to bet under two and a half.

887
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:10,439
Speaker 2: I only bet under three. Under two and a half

888
00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:13,840
Speaker 2: is even. It's like plus one ten. So if it

889
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:15,279
Speaker 2: gets juiced up and I can get it, you know,

890
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 2: I even take it a juice under three in this match,

891
00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:21,279
Speaker 2: but you know, we'll see what Arsenal does tomorrow before

892
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:22,200
Speaker 2: we bet that one.

893
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 1: This one also a little tricky to break down because

894
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:31,600
Speaker 1: Tottenham has to play on Thursday as well. They're playing

895
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:33,399
Speaker 1: Brighton as we talked about at the top of the show,

896
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 1: but they are hosting Bourne myth New Year's Eve. The

897
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:40,719
Speaker 1: Cherries plus three fifty road underdog. The draw here is

898
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:45,200
Speaker 1: three to one Spurs minus one forty three. You can

899
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:48,920
Speaker 1: almost take the handicap from the top of the show

900
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 1: about Brighton client here the one question being the secret's

901
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:59,680
Speaker 1: out I born with now everybody is kind of well

902
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 1: aware that the Andoni Iraola revolution is in full effect

903
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 1: and that the Cherries are playing quite a good bit

904
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 1: of ball. That said, still a decent price, PJ it is.

905
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:15,000
Speaker 4: I mean, you can still be at Bournemouth at plus

906
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:18,439
Speaker 4: one here again, Todd IM's gonna be without their two

907
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 4: starting center backs. Here's a little stat for everybody. Since

908
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:27,799
Speaker 4: the beginning of November, Bournemouth has a plus ten non

909
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 4: penalty extra differential per ninety minutes. That's the best in

910
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 4: the Premier League, which is crazy about during that time frame.

911
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:38,759
Speaker 4: That's how good they've been and how they check it.

912
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 2: Don't check the schedule, Yeah, don't check.

913
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, don't check the schedule. Just take it at face value.

914
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 4: But honestly, this matchup right here plays into exactly what

915
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:53,759
Speaker 4: Bournemouth wants to do. They want to do their hybrid press.

916
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 4: They want to force high turnovers and that is exactly

917
00:45:57,600 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 4: what they did to Manchester United at Old Traff. They

918
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 4: did it to Fullam, they did it even Newcastle when

919
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:07,160
Speaker 4: they came to their park. Tom's gonna try to build

920
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:10,759
Speaker 4: on the back without their two starting center backs, They're

921
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:13,080
Speaker 4: not gonna be as good in build up, so borne

922
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:15,160
Speaker 4: they should get a lot of transition opportunities here against

923
00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:18,000
Speaker 4: a bad transition defense. So I like Bournemouth plus one

924
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:24,120
Speaker 4: minus one thirty again, just another good spot to keep

925
00:46:24,120 --> 00:46:27,239
Speaker 4: backing them, because, like you said, Michael, the market hasn't

926
00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 4: really caught on to how good they've been. Again, the

927
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 4: schedule has been easy.

928
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:32,840
Speaker 2: But that's debatable.

929
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:35,520
Speaker 4: I think it still hasn't gone far enough.

930
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 2: I would push back on that though, because like the

931
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:40,840
Speaker 2: Spurs closed minus one oh five on the road at Bournemouth,

932
00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:43,759
Speaker 2: not only minus one fifty at home a little bit.

933
00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 2: But here's the thing, I love Alex Scott. Oh, they've

934
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 2: they've they've found here. He's been really impressive. Cliver it's

935
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:55,280
Speaker 2: been good. Semeno is really fun in space, Awatara gets forward,

936
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:58,759
Speaker 2: like this team is fun. Like they destroyed Fulham and

937
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 2: it was thoroughly enjoyable Unboxing day to watch. And just

938
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:06,160
Speaker 2: like here's the thing. When we talked about Eiola preseason,

939
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 2: we said this Bournemouth team will be dangerous against the

940
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:12,640
Speaker 2: big teams because they can pressure them and rattle them

941
00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 2: and hassle them. And it's kind of what Viacano did

942
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 2: to the top teams in Spain. They were consistently like

943
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:19,840
Speaker 2: a good dog and then it was like terrible for

944
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:23,600
Speaker 2: the first third of the season, where like they got

945
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 2: destroyed by all the good teams and then we were like, well,

946
00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 2: it just isn't working. They don't have the talent. And

947
00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:29,880
Speaker 2: then they beat the shit out of all the bad teams.

948
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 2: So now it's like, okay, let's see it against a good,

949
00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 2: healthy team, because yes, they did it to United, but

950
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:39,799
Speaker 2: like we know they're not a good team. They did

951
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 2: it to Fulham, we know they're not really a good team,

952
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,920
Speaker 2: and they did it to Newcastle with like the Ultimate

953
00:47:46,000 --> 00:47:48,239
Speaker 2: that was the worst of the injuries for Newcastle, and

954
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:50,839
Speaker 2: like the Road Newcastle without any of their players, it's

955
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 2: just like not that good of a team. So now

956
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 2: this is the first, like big, big test. I'm excited

957
00:47:57,239 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 2: for it. I'm gonna let you guys have fun with it.

958
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:03,439
Speaker 2: We'll see if I join in, but at this current number,

959
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 2: I probably won't.

960
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:08,160
Speaker 4: This will just give a number to watch to see

961
00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:11,480
Speaker 4: what happens with Tottenham and Brighton, because you know, if

962
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:13,840
Speaker 4: Tottenham comes out and beats Brighton, there's a chance that

963
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:16,360
Speaker 4: this number could grow. Now if you truly believe that,

964
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 4: like we do, that Brighton's gonna win that match, then

965
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 4: I would bet born with now or I'd have my finger.

966
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 4: I'd have my finger on the bets the second that

967
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:29,480
Speaker 4: things go wrong here.

968
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:32,840
Speaker 2: For Tottenham, I almost forgot to mention Marcus Tavanier just

969
00:48:32,920 --> 00:48:35,239
Speaker 2: really impressive as well, four shot creating actions and five

970
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:38,919
Speaker 2: shots in his in the win. They got their first

971
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 2: penalty in two years too, So there's all kinds of

972
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 2: really fun, really fun things are happening. And I'm telling

973
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:46,640
Speaker 2: you this. Alex Scott Kidd is like a future star.

974
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:49,560
Speaker 4: He was amazing at Bristol. He was amazing at Bristol City.

975
00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:52,040
Speaker 4: He was like the best midfielder in the Championship last year.

976
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:57,120
Speaker 1: He's a Channel Islands born player to Guernsey. So yep,

977
00:48:57,400 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 1: it's always fun, always love reaching out to our Channel

978
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 1: listeners on the Channel Islands, okay, of which there are many,

979
00:49:06,040 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 1: oh yeah, just tons tons yeah, Guernsey, Jersey, all of them. Uh,

980
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 1: Liverpool and Newcastle up next. If I told you that

981
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 1: Newcastle will be a six to one underdog against Liverpool

982
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:24,239
Speaker 1: on January first, before the season started, you would assume

983
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:26,840
Speaker 1: what had happened.

984
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:29,840
Speaker 2: Just in Newcastle. Newcastle ran out of players. I mean

985
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:31,880
Speaker 2: they're too there are two big summer signings, just like,

986
00:49:31,880 --> 00:49:35,200
Speaker 2: don't play for the team now, Harvey's hurts a game yet.

987
00:49:35,239 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 2: But and then they then they had injuries and the like, Ye,

988
00:49:39,520 --> 00:49:41,439
Speaker 2: what's the point of what's the point what's the point

989
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 2: of the Saudi money if you don't spend any money?

990
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:47,839
Speaker 4: I mean, what could they to skate the financial fair

991
00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 4: play stuff, Anthony, they're trying not to fall.

992
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:51,480
Speaker 2: I haven't actually start that much money.

993
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:55,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's they're a lot smarter. They're like more clever

994
00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:57,200
Speaker 1: than that. They're not just gonna get out go out

995
00:49:57,200 --> 00:50:00,120
Speaker 1: there and just splash cash like we'll catch up to

996
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:01,040
Speaker 1: them in five years.

997
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:05,120
Speaker 4: That's why let the money. Yeah, it's the same thing,

998
00:50:05,160 --> 00:50:07,840
Speaker 4: like it's been somewhere. You can't this is this is

999
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:10,720
Speaker 4: paying Ronaldo five hundred million like they you know made

1000
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:12,719
Speaker 4: they don't have me. You know they have all the money, but.

1001
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:16,240
Speaker 1: You don't remind me to never have you run a racket?

1002
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:20,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, broadcast the Ponzi Yeah?

1003
00:50:21,239 --> 00:50:21,399
Speaker 3: Uh.

1004
00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:23,360
Speaker 1: Nonetheless, I like this.

1005
00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:26,160
Speaker 2: I'm I'm a specialist and get away driving. So if

1006
00:50:26,200 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 2: you need me for that, I got you perfect baby driver.

1007
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:29,879
Speaker 4: Baby driver.

1008
00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:35,560
Speaker 1: Hm. We were talking about how people are catching on

1009
00:50:35,640 --> 00:50:38,040
Speaker 1: to the board with thing. Everybody'squot on to Newcastle can't

1010
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 1: win on the road. Thing they've won once.

1011
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:41,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's exhausting.

1012
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:45,799
Speaker 1: It's they've won once in uh in December so far

1013
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 1: the schedule hasn't been tough. Uh Forrest, Luton, Tottenham and

1014
00:50:51,440 --> 00:50:55,680
Speaker 1: Everden or for the Luminaries that that beat Newcastle. We

1015
00:50:55,800 --> 00:50:58,919
Speaker 1: are a betting podcast. They want twice, I should say

1016
00:50:58,880 --> 00:51:01,399
Speaker 1: in because they to be united on like the first

1017
00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:05,280
Speaker 1: day of the month. But we are a betting podcast

1018
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:11,759
Speaker 1: and perhaps the most important bit of betting hygiene.

1019
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:15,359
Speaker 2: Is to buy low contrarian.

1020
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:18,920
Speaker 1: How can you not play this number? How because the

1021
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:23,640
Speaker 1: injuries aren't terrible anymore, They're not like they're they're as

1022
00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:26,600
Speaker 1: bad as they've been. And I get that this team

1023
00:51:26,600 --> 00:51:29,600
Speaker 1: has seemingly run out of gas. Kieran Trippier keeps playing

1024
00:51:29,600 --> 00:51:31,480
Speaker 1: for the other team, which is unfortunate.

1025
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 2: It's a really big issue.

1026
00:51:33,040 --> 00:51:36,040
Speaker 4: A gambler, I might point out.

1027
00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:39,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes it a little bit more skeptical, doesn't it.

1028
00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:45,040
Speaker 2: Nonetheless you do a double take. Yeah, nonetheless, especially with

1029
00:51:45,080 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 2: the market price.

1030
00:51:47,280 --> 00:51:49,960
Speaker 1: In fact, we're backing him, I mean he.

1031
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:53,839
Speaker 2: Might not start. They benched him. Yeah, and they put

1032
00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:56,680
Speaker 2: on Livermento at half last week and then they gave

1033
00:51:56,760 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 2: up like three more XG.

1034
00:51:59,040 --> 00:52:02,279
Speaker 1: I don't I don't unders saying how there's there's not

1035
00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:05,960
Speaker 1: going to be more support on backing Newcastle to Pip

1036
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:07,960
Speaker 1: one here. And I know that Anthony went over this

1037
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:10,520
Speaker 1: whole litany about how nobody goes to anfield and gets

1038
00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 1: a point and then Man United with with their D

1039
00:52:13,280 --> 00:52:14,760
Speaker 1: squad went there and got a point.

1040
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:18,840
Speaker 4: Arsenal and Arsenal did it. They dominated, Michael.

1041
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:23,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, they got Fortress, Fortress and field, Fortress and field.

1042
00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:24,240
Speaker 2: Is you have to be breached.

1043
00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:27,560
Speaker 4: That's the only way they score goals because of the fortress.

1044
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:29,759
Speaker 2: Why why aren't you guys? You're gonna act as though

1045
00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:31,759
Speaker 2: Liverpool didn't control both of those matches. We're going to

1046
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:33,040
Speaker 2: pretend like I can tell.

1047
00:52:33,040 --> 00:52:35,840
Speaker 1: Why why would you not bet Newcastle here? It's my

1048
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 1: question at this price?

1049
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:40,520
Speaker 4: This is I don't know if their press is good anymore.

1050
00:52:41,520 --> 00:52:44,480
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know. The defensive transition is alarming.

1051
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:48,759
Speaker 4: They were so bad pressing against Nottingham Forest, which what

1052
00:52:48,760 --> 00:52:52,279
Speaker 4: what's concerning about that? It was because Nottingham Forest, you know,

1053
00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:54,600
Speaker 4: NUNA is obviously in charge now, so they've switched to

1054
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:57,080
Speaker 4: a four three four two three one and the actually

1055
00:52:57,560 --> 00:52:59,560
Speaker 4: notting Forest is actually trying to build out of the back,

1056
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 4: control more possession instead of just you know, Steve Cooper's

1057
00:53:02,600 --> 00:53:04,400
Speaker 4: three two five, let's just send the ball along and

1058
00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:08,439
Speaker 4: hope for the best. And not Ingham forrests destroyed them

1059
00:53:08,640 --> 00:53:10,760
Speaker 4: like they just played right through them the entire second

1060
00:53:10,760 --> 00:53:13,919
Speaker 4: half and first half two in first half as well.

1061
00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:17,400
Speaker 4: And yeah, so now I think Newcastle and here's kind

1062
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:18,880
Speaker 4: of why I like the under three and a half here,

1063
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:21,400
Speaker 4: which is a little juicy at minus one forty is

1064
00:53:22,280 --> 00:53:24,799
Speaker 4: they've obviously done these two different pressing structures where they

1065
00:53:24,840 --> 00:53:26,520
Speaker 4: have their normal four to three to three where it's

1066
00:53:26,560 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 4: Manda Man beat you up and it's really relying on

1067
00:53:28,760 --> 00:53:32,400
Speaker 4: being physical, having energy. They will have a full almost

1068
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:34,440
Speaker 4: a full week's rest, which is like the first time

1069
00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:36,440
Speaker 4: they've had that in I don't know how many months,

1070
00:53:36,480 --> 00:53:38,960
Speaker 4: So you could make the case there they have a

1071
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:41,279
Speaker 4: little bit more energy than they've had when they've had

1072
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:44,319
Speaker 4: to play matches every two to three days. But they've

1073
00:53:44,360 --> 00:53:46,439
Speaker 4: also had this pressing structure of a four to five

1074
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:49,279
Speaker 4: one where they've played more passive and they've done a

1075
00:53:49,320 --> 00:53:51,160
Speaker 4: little bit better in terms of a midblock there. And

1076
00:53:51,160 --> 00:53:52,480
Speaker 4: I think that's what you're going to see them here

1077
00:53:52,480 --> 00:53:54,600
Speaker 4: playing against Liverpool because the last thing that they want

1078
00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:57,080
Speaker 4: to do is get into a transition back and forth

1079
00:53:57,080 --> 00:54:00,480
Speaker 4: battle with Liverpool. And unfortunately the previous match with these

1080
00:54:00,480 --> 00:54:04,360
Speaker 4: two teams have been I've had a couple of red cards,

1081
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:06,520
Speaker 4: so we haven't really learned much. Obviously, Liverpool had the

1082
00:54:06,520 --> 00:54:09,440
Speaker 4: smash and grab earlier this season when they got a

1083
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:12,000
Speaker 4: red card early and then Newcastle pretty much dominated them

1084
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:15,520
Speaker 4: up until Darwin just poached a couple of goals. But

1085
00:54:16,520 --> 00:54:20,400
Speaker 4: the best success here for Newcastle is to play passive

1086
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:22,359
Speaker 4: and play in a defensive block. It's not to come

1087
00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:24,399
Speaker 4: out and try and press Liverpool and let them try

1088
00:54:24,400 --> 00:54:27,359
Speaker 4: to play in transition. And another thing about Liverpool, though

1089
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:30,960
Speaker 4: their defense has very quietly gotten a lot better over

1090
00:54:31,000 --> 00:54:34,080
Speaker 4: the last six matches, about four point five expected goals

1091
00:54:34,080 --> 00:54:37,240
Speaker 4: and for the season only one point one non penalty

1092
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:39,120
Speaker 4: actually preninium. Its still now we're near the level of

1093
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:42,759
Speaker 4: Arsenal Anthony, but still they're much better, still a much

1094
00:54:42,800 --> 00:54:45,120
Speaker 4: better defense than what they were in the beginning of

1095
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:49,560
Speaker 4: the season, not allowing as many transition opportunities. So I

1096
00:54:49,560 --> 00:54:51,759
Speaker 4: don't think this one has the makings of this like

1097
00:54:51,880 --> 00:54:54,120
Speaker 4: back and forth, like high scoring affair. I think it's

1098
00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:56,440
Speaker 4: gonna be a lot of stale possession. Newcastle is going

1099
00:54:56,480 --> 00:55:00,160
Speaker 4: to I've handed Liverpool the ball and not really you

1100
00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:02,480
Speaker 4: try and press them with that much intensive intensity. So

1101
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:05,480
Speaker 4: and I only projected around two and a half goals here,

1102
00:55:05,719 --> 00:55:07,919
Speaker 4: so I actually do like under three and a half

1103
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:10,000
Speaker 4: and then pay the juice and minus one.

1104
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:12,560
Speaker 1: Forty How many times do this podcast do we say

1105
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:16,440
Speaker 1: I'm kind of hoping that team A just gets absolutely worked.

1106
00:55:16,520 --> 00:55:18,400
Speaker 1: So then I can get a big number on them

1107
00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:20,320
Speaker 1: in their next match, which is when I want to

1108
00:55:20,360 --> 00:55:22,880
Speaker 1: bet them, and then nodding A forest comes in and

1109
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:27,040
Speaker 1: absolutely pants is Newcastle we get this number. It's crazy

1110
00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:28,920
Speaker 1: that you guys are more excited about this.

1111
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:30,880
Speaker 4: I mean I have a little bit of value on Newcastle.

1112
00:55:31,000 --> 00:55:32,120
Speaker 2: I just I do too.

1113
00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:36,120
Speaker 4: The road, the road form, the injuries, it's.

1114
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 1: Just not Yeah, that's all adding up to part of

1115
00:55:38,200 --> 00:55:39,760
Speaker 1: the to why we're getting this number.

1116
00:55:39,960 --> 00:55:42,000
Speaker 4: I'll tell you what if we get Newcastle plus one

1117
00:55:42,040 --> 00:55:44,319
Speaker 4: and a half at a normal number like minus one ten,

1118
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:46,719
Speaker 4: minus one, twenty, I will be there with you.

1119
00:55:46,719 --> 00:55:48,799
Speaker 1: Much go to then it's six to one. It's six

1120
00:55:48,840 --> 00:55:49,959
Speaker 1: to one on a very good team.

1121
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:50,879
Speaker 4: Okay, well if they get.

1122
00:55:50,800 --> 00:55:54,680
Speaker 2: To seven, you know you can't win an Anfield.

1123
00:55:54,280 --> 00:55:55,600
Speaker 4: Mike, yeahah that's true.

1124
00:55:55,640 --> 00:55:58,959
Speaker 1: That's but the double chips.

1125
00:55:59,120 --> 00:56:03,240
Speaker 2: Nobody wins there, no nobody. It is the transition defense.

1126
00:56:03,280 --> 00:56:05,960
Speaker 2: For me. I don't think Liverpool's playing their best. The

1127
00:56:06,000 --> 00:56:08,640
Speaker 2: attacking group has not been good. I mean we can

1128
00:56:08,680 --> 00:56:10,440
Speaker 2: we can say what it is. Like I love Darwin Nuniez.

1129
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:13,279
Speaker 2: He scored nice goal against Burnley, but like he's been

1130
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:18,520
Speaker 2: really struggling of late. Diaz is heard again h slash

1131
00:56:19,040 --> 00:56:20,560
Speaker 2: way out of form and has not been the same

1132
00:56:20,600 --> 00:56:22,600
Speaker 2: player since the knee injuries and you know, all this

1133
00:56:22,600 --> 00:56:26,600
Speaker 2: stuff going on with him. Gakpo doesn't really fit the

1134
00:56:26,640 --> 00:56:28,799
Speaker 2: system whatsoever. It was kind of like a panic by

1135
00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:32,279
Speaker 2: last January, and he doesn't really fit with how these

1136
00:56:32,560 --> 00:56:34,560
Speaker 2: team plays right now because they don't have a functioning

1137
00:56:34,600 --> 00:56:37,799
Speaker 2: midfield and then there's the midfield, which like Endo has

1138
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:40,000
Speaker 2: been solid but not special, and then they're kind of

1139
00:56:40,040 --> 00:56:41,880
Speaker 2: just rotating all of these pieces in and out and

1140
00:56:41,920 --> 00:56:43,640
Speaker 2: trying to figure out what the best thing is. And

1141
00:56:43,680 --> 00:56:45,680
Speaker 2: I think it's worked because they've kept the squad pretty

1142
00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:49,880
Speaker 2: fresh and then enabled them to not wear down and

1143
00:56:49,880 --> 00:56:52,799
Speaker 2: impress it with you know, intensity is still and I

1144
00:56:52,800 --> 00:56:54,759
Speaker 2: think it played a role and why they dominated the

1145
00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:57,759
Speaker 2: second half of that game. But like, this total is

1146
00:56:57,760 --> 00:57:00,759
Speaker 2: a little high. As bad as Newcastle's defense has been

1147
00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:05,160
Speaker 2: of late, this total is high to me, and I

1148
00:57:05,200 --> 00:57:07,400
Speaker 2: think Newcastle does need to take a more pragmatic approach,

1149
00:57:07,840 --> 00:57:10,480
Speaker 2: kind of similar to the United match, where they're going

1150
00:57:10,520 --> 00:57:12,600
Speaker 2: to sit deeper and try to absorb pressure and get

1151
00:57:12,600 --> 00:57:15,200
Speaker 2: one on ones. They'll find more success on the break,

1152
00:57:15,239 --> 00:57:17,360
Speaker 2: I think than United did. But I also don't think

1153
00:57:17,400 --> 00:57:20,960
Speaker 2: they'll be as hopeless defensively as United was in that match,

1154
00:57:21,560 --> 00:57:24,920
Speaker 2: conceding over two and a half XG. So yeah, it's

1155
00:57:25,000 --> 00:57:27,120
Speaker 2: under nothing for me. But again, I'm just like so

1156
00:57:27,240 --> 00:57:32,080
Speaker 2: scared of the transition numbers for Newcastle defensively right now

1157
00:57:32,080 --> 00:57:33,680
Speaker 2: that if they let Liverpool get on the run here,

1158
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:36,720
Speaker 2: like they could just laugh and score three or four themselves,

1159
00:57:37,480 --> 00:57:39,280
Speaker 2: kind of what Totdam just did to them. So I'm like,

1160
00:57:39,280 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 2: it's kind of scared, But no, I see your point

1161
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:45,960
Speaker 2: one hundred percent. Like from a by low perspective, Newcastle

1162
00:57:46,120 --> 00:57:48,200
Speaker 2: is clearly the team.

1163
00:57:48,480 --> 00:57:50,840
Speaker 4: What I wanted to mention was is now that they

1164
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:52,800
Speaker 4: are out of Europe, they're out of the League Cup,

1165
00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:55,720
Speaker 4: We're going to get back to the Newcastle of last season,

1166
00:57:55,720 --> 00:58:00,160
Speaker 4: where they're basically just playing one match every week, fully healthy,

1167
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:04,320
Speaker 4: full on physical press and there will be plenty of

1168
00:58:04,360 --> 00:58:07,360
Speaker 4: times to bylow on them. This is somewhat one of them.

1169
00:58:07,400 --> 00:58:09,800
Speaker 4: I agree with you, Michael. There's gonna be so many

1170
00:58:09,800 --> 00:58:13,160
Speaker 4: great opportunities over the second half the season. Two buy

1171
00:58:13,240 --> 00:58:14,000
Speaker 4: on Newcastle.

1172
00:58:15,200 --> 00:58:19,560
Speaker 1: I think you guys are nuts. We'll wrap up the

1173
00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:23,120
Speaker 1: Premier League quickly with West Ham and Brighton. This is

1174
00:58:23,160 --> 00:58:26,600
Speaker 1: on Tuesday, January the second. West Ham is a home

1175
00:58:26,600 --> 00:58:29,240
Speaker 1: favorite plus one thirty seven Brighton plus one eighty the

1176
00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 1: draws plus two seventy five Brighton playing Spurs on Thursday.

1177
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:34,880
Speaker 1: So once again a little bit tricky to break down here.

1178
00:58:37,160 --> 00:58:39,960
Speaker 1: I like Brighton at the like kind of in the

1179
00:58:40,040 --> 00:58:42,680
Speaker 1: vacuum right now, not knowing what we will find out

1180
00:58:43,720 --> 00:58:47,240
Speaker 1: in the match against Spurs on Thursday. But don't really

1181
00:58:47,280 --> 00:58:49,000
Speaker 1: have much more to add than what we've kind of

1182
00:58:49,040 --> 00:58:52,160
Speaker 1: talked about with west Ham and Brighton here, b J anything.

1183
00:58:52,520 --> 00:58:57,040
Speaker 4: I love, love, love Brighton here. The previous match between

1184
00:58:57,040 --> 00:59:01,120
Speaker 4: these two was a hilarious match. Basically west Ham put

1185
00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:04,440
Speaker 4: on a counter attacking clinic. If you remember, that was

1186
00:59:04,480 --> 00:59:08,000
Speaker 4: when Brighton was playing incredibly open and committing so many

1187
00:59:08,000 --> 00:59:10,800
Speaker 4: guys forward and basically just getting in one on ones

1188
00:59:11,440 --> 00:59:15,200
Speaker 4: in transition. Well, now Brighton's been playing a little more pragmatic.

1189
00:59:15,240 --> 00:59:18,480
Speaker 4: They've been a little bit more hesitant at being aggressive.

1190
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:21,240
Speaker 4: Last ten matches for the Seagulls, they've only conceded one

1191
00:59:21,280 --> 00:59:23,640
Speaker 4: point one to two non penalty x sheep for ninety minutes,

1192
00:59:24,040 --> 00:59:28,000
Speaker 4: been incredibly good with their counter pressing and for west

1193
00:59:28,040 --> 00:59:31,760
Speaker 4: Ham in that match, they were basically perfect out of

1194
00:59:31,800 --> 00:59:34,760
Speaker 4: possession in their low block. I don't see a scenario

1195
00:59:34,800 --> 00:59:37,400
Speaker 4: where they can repeat that performance again here it is

1196
00:59:37,440 --> 00:59:40,880
Speaker 4: at home. Brighton have struggled breaking down low blocks, but again,

1197
00:59:41,480 --> 00:59:44,760
Speaker 4: like I mentioned for west Ham and Arsenal, west Ham

1198
00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:47,880
Speaker 4: has been pretty bad defensively against teams in the top

1199
00:59:47,880 --> 00:59:51,600
Speaker 4: half of the table they've played. They've played eight matches,

1200
00:59:52,120 --> 00:59:54,880
Speaker 4: it's top ten teams and they have conceded eighteen point

1201
00:59:54,920 --> 00:59:57,880
Speaker 4: six expectacles. Not to mention they're allowing the third most

1202
00:59:57,880 --> 01:00:01,720
Speaker 4: shots in the second most box entry and like I

1203
01:00:01,760 --> 01:00:03,800
Speaker 4: mentioned with Brighton, like they are dealing with some injuries

1204
01:00:03,840 --> 01:00:06,560
Speaker 4: in their attack, but they are they have incredible depth

1205
01:00:06,640 --> 01:00:11,000
Speaker 4: where losing a guy like Matomas is big, but they

1206
01:00:11,000 --> 01:00:14,200
Speaker 4: can rotate guys around where the drop off is really

1207
01:00:14,240 --> 01:00:17,560
Speaker 4: not as big as it would be comparatively to other teams.

1208
01:00:18,000 --> 01:00:20,760
Speaker 4: So and even if we just look at raw expecting

1209
01:00:20,760 --> 01:00:22,760
Speaker 4: golden French all, I mean, Brighton's plus two point nine

1210
01:00:22,760 --> 01:00:24,800
Speaker 4: in the season and west Ham's minus four point six.

1211
01:00:24,880 --> 01:00:27,880
Speaker 4: So I don't really see a scenario why west Ham

1212
01:00:27,920 --> 01:00:29,800
Speaker 4: should be favored. I understand their at home, but they

1213
01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:31,440
Speaker 4: are not a better team than Brighton. And what this

1214
01:00:31,560 --> 01:00:33,880
Speaker 4: line is saying is that Brighton would only be a

1215
01:00:33,920 --> 01:00:36,000
Speaker 4: slight favorite on a neutral field, which I think they

1216
01:00:36,000 --> 01:00:38,480
Speaker 4: should be a more significant favorite. So I like Brighton.

1217
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:42,680
Speaker 4: John Obett plus one fourteen at West hamp All.

1218
01:00:42,680 --> 01:00:47,680
Speaker 1: Right, let's moving on then to the rest of Europe.

1219
01:00:48,200 --> 01:00:51,800
Speaker 1: It's just La Liga and Syria will be quick here,

1220
01:00:52,240 --> 01:00:55,560
Speaker 1: Anthony anything, what do you have in these two leagues?

1221
01:00:56,520 --> 01:00:58,640
Speaker 2: It's not the Vegle plus one to forty five every week,

1222
01:01:00,240 --> 01:01:04,000
Speaker 2: every week back at home against what I think is

1223
01:01:04,040 --> 01:01:05,920
Speaker 2: like a pretty league average better side. I don't really

1224
01:01:05,960 --> 01:01:07,720
Speaker 2: think there's much of a difference between these two teams

1225
01:01:07,720 --> 01:01:10,240
Speaker 2: and quality. So I got plus one and forty five

1226
01:01:10,240 --> 01:01:12,240
Speaker 2: at home. I'm going to start taking some money lines

1227
01:01:12,240 --> 01:01:15,360
Speaker 2: here because I need to get back my losses, so

1228
01:01:15,360 --> 01:01:18,480
Speaker 2: I got to chase some higher payouts and thus I'm

1229
01:01:18,480 --> 01:01:19,439
Speaker 2: on the Vego money line.

1230
01:01:19,560 --> 01:01:23,480
Speaker 4: BJ Well, obviously I'll be on Athletic Co Madrid against Corona,

1231
01:01:23,600 --> 01:01:28,040
Speaker 4: that's obvious. But for lack of sounding redundant on this podcast,

1232
01:01:28,160 --> 01:01:29,480
Speaker 4: I think the last three weeks I've done it in

1233
01:01:29,480 --> 01:01:33,960
Speaker 4: the Corona fade. I also like Almeria plus one against Osasuna.

1234
01:01:34,520 --> 01:01:36,160
Speaker 4: Al Maria is bad. They have not won a match

1235
01:01:36,200 --> 01:01:38,600
Speaker 4: yet this season in La Liga. They've lost two of

1236
01:01:38,600 --> 01:01:42,240
Speaker 4: their best attackers and still they are six to non

1237
01:01:42,240 --> 01:01:46,080
Speaker 4: penalty xtg for ninety minutes and they're playing in soon Aside.

1238
01:01:46,160 --> 01:01:49,920
Speaker 4: That is a very below average team in terms of

1239
01:01:50,360 --> 01:01:54,920
Speaker 4: underlying data. They're fourteenth offensively and non penalty fifteenth defensively.

1240
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:57,919
Speaker 4: A team is trying to hold more possession and try

1241
01:01:57,920 --> 01:02:00,760
Speaker 4: and be more team at the out of the back,

1242
01:02:01,040 --> 01:02:03,160
Speaker 4: and they're just not as good at doing it. Now.

1243
01:02:03,160 --> 01:02:07,720
Speaker 4: Almira's defense is terrible, but there's not a world that osa.

1244
01:02:07,800 --> 01:02:09,360
Speaker 4: So a team that should be in the bottom half

1245
01:02:09,400 --> 01:02:12,000
Speaker 4: the table should be laying a full goal against al Maria.

1246
01:02:12,120 --> 01:02:14,280
Speaker 4: So I like al Maria plus one.

1247
01:02:14,800 --> 01:02:18,760
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to some underdogs. Now, three leg parlay.

1248
01:02:18,760 --> 01:02:20,800
Speaker 1: It is gonna come out around seventy four to one.

1249
01:02:21,000 --> 01:02:23,440
Speaker 1: Maybe put some with that Christmas money back in your

1250
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:28,160
Speaker 1: pocket if we can hit all three, starting with Anthony's

1251
01:02:29,080 --> 01:02:29,960
Speaker 1: lega special here.

1252
01:02:30,360 --> 01:02:32,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I'm gonna go with Kadith plus two twenty

1253
01:02:32,960 --> 01:02:36,280
Speaker 2: five on the road against Granada, a matchup of what

1254
01:02:36,400 --> 01:02:39,920
Speaker 2: is essentially two of the worst teams in La Liga overall.

1255
01:02:40,440 --> 01:02:42,920
Speaker 2: But I think I'm getting the team that's trending upward.

1256
01:02:43,200 --> 01:02:45,600
Speaker 2: A team that's been creating more chances of late and

1257
01:02:45,840 --> 01:02:48,520
Speaker 2: does have some positive aggression coming from an attacking perspective.

1258
01:02:48,960 --> 01:02:52,440
Speaker 2: They've actually created the least expected goals in the entire league,

1259
01:02:52,520 --> 01:02:55,400
Speaker 2: tied with Las Palmas according to the fb REF data.

1260
01:02:55,480 --> 01:02:58,280
Speaker 2: They've drawn five consecutive matches. It's a not a team

1261
01:02:58,280 --> 01:03:00,240
Speaker 2: that wins very often. They have two wins ally, but

1262
01:03:00,240 --> 01:03:02,160
Speaker 2: their face a Granada team that is by far the

1263
01:03:02,200 --> 01:03:06,640
Speaker 2: worse in the league. Changed their manager and got worse overall.

1264
01:03:06,720 --> 01:03:09,120
Speaker 2: And really, I think in a matchup of two of

1265
01:03:09,160 --> 01:03:11,600
Speaker 2: the worst teams, I'm getting the better of the worst

1266
01:03:11,600 --> 01:03:14,360
Speaker 2: teams at plus two to twenty five. So Jimmy Kadith

1267
01:03:14,640 --> 01:03:15,120
Speaker 2: on the road.

1268
01:03:16,840 --> 01:03:21,920
Speaker 1: Coming into the season, we had a pretty long debate

1269
01:03:21,960 --> 01:03:23,800
Speaker 1: about who was the third who was the fourth best

1270
01:03:23,800 --> 01:03:27,480
Speaker 1: team in the Premier League, and it was always between Newcastle, Liverpool,

1271
01:03:27,640 --> 01:03:31,000
Speaker 1: Arsenal and one of those teams. Newcastle is six to

1272
01:03:31,080 --> 01:03:33,920
Speaker 1: one on the money line this weekend because they are

1273
01:03:33,920 --> 01:03:37,640
Speaker 1: in the middle of a one win in five slump,

1274
01:03:38,640 --> 01:03:41,040
Speaker 1: lost a couple in a row. We're just pasted by

1275
01:03:41,080 --> 01:03:45,000
Speaker 1: Nottingham Forest. This forwards came on the heels of a

1276
01:03:45,040 --> 01:03:48,640
Speaker 1: lost to Looton Down. This is the epitome of a

1277
01:03:48,680 --> 01:03:51,120
Speaker 1: by low on a good team. BJ six to one

1278
01:03:51,800 --> 01:03:57,160
Speaker 1: for Newcastle at anfield where Anthony has famously declared nobody's

1279
01:03:57,200 --> 01:04:00,400
Speaker 1: ever won. So Newcastle United become the first team to

1280
01:04:00,600 --> 01:04:04,200
Speaker 1: in the history of soccer to win in the hallowed

1281
01:04:04,200 --> 01:04:06,640
Speaker 1: ground of Anfield. What do you got?

1282
01:04:07,120 --> 01:04:10,880
Speaker 4: How about another Bilo Brentford plus two thirty at Crystal Palace.

1283
01:04:11,200 --> 01:04:13,240
Speaker 4: Brentford team that's obviously in a bad run of form,

1284
01:04:13,280 --> 01:04:16,680
Speaker 4: but still putting up great underlying data, and this is

1285
01:04:16,720 --> 01:04:19,120
Speaker 4: another situation where they are going to play more attacking,

1286
01:04:19,320 --> 01:04:20,960
Speaker 4: probably set up in their four three to three, be

1287
01:04:21,000 --> 01:04:25,120
Speaker 4: more attack minded against a Crystal Palace team that has

1288
01:04:25,120 --> 01:04:27,680
Speaker 4: been playing more open, trying to press higher, trying to

1289
01:04:27,800 --> 01:04:30,520
Speaker 4: disrupt built a play and Brentford generally has been a

1290
01:04:30,560 --> 01:04:33,280
Speaker 4: pretty good team at playing through pressure and building up

1291
01:04:33,320 --> 01:04:37,000
Speaker 4: out of the back. In terms of Crystal Palace. Here

1292
01:04:37,000 --> 01:04:40,480
Speaker 4: at home, they are overvalued a little bit. I know,

1293
01:04:40,560 --> 01:04:43,360
Speaker 4: as A and Elise are back and healthy, and they're

1294
01:04:43,360 --> 01:04:45,720
Speaker 4: obviously been very good attack, had a good game against Chelsea,

1295
01:04:45,800 --> 01:04:48,160
Speaker 4: but I really still don't trust this Crystal Palace defense

1296
01:04:48,160 --> 01:04:50,240
Speaker 4: and Brentford is due for a lot of positive aggressions.

1297
01:04:50,280 --> 01:04:51,760
Speaker 4: So I like the Bees plus.

1298
01:04:51,520 --> 01:04:56,040
Speaker 1: Two thirty Newcastle Kadif and b Redford seventy four to one.

1299
01:04:56,360 --> 01:04:58,120
Speaker 2: We had three again last weekend.

1300
01:04:58,440 --> 01:05:00,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're getting It's always it's always, it's always me

1301
01:05:00,960 --> 01:05:02,120
Speaker 1: whenever we hit two out of three.

1302
01:05:02,360 --> 01:05:04,120
Speaker 4: I think the last three that we've come up short,

1303
01:05:04,200 --> 01:05:07,560
Speaker 4: it's been my underdog that is lost. So I thought

1304
01:05:08,640 --> 01:05:11,680
Speaker 4: bet though, yeah it was. But the funny thing is

1305
01:05:11,680 --> 01:05:15,280
Speaker 4: is that if anybody knows me personally throughout my entire

1306
01:05:15,320 --> 01:05:17,520
Speaker 4: sporting career, I am always somebody who comes up short

1307
01:05:17,520 --> 01:05:20,280
Speaker 4: in the big moments. So this really isn't that shocking.

1308
01:05:21,080 --> 01:05:23,080
Speaker 2: That we'll dive into that in the next week's episodes.

1309
01:05:23,240 --> 01:05:25,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, that sounds like you need a faint fainting chair

1310
01:05:25,880 --> 01:05:29,720
Speaker 1: for that one. Okay, best bets now, I'll go first

1311
01:05:29,800 --> 01:05:32,240
Speaker 1: with BJ just kind of laid it out the one

1312
01:05:32,240 --> 01:05:33,720
Speaker 1: that I like. I like Brentford on the money Line

1313
01:05:33,720 --> 01:05:36,200
Speaker 1: at Crystal Palace plus to thirty as a team. That

1314
01:05:36,480 --> 01:05:39,080
Speaker 1: underlying numbers suggests that they are about to start trending up.

1315
01:05:39,160 --> 01:05:40,000
Speaker 1: What do you got, BJ?

1316
01:05:40,400 --> 01:05:44,040
Speaker 4: I like Brighton, John o'bett plus one fifteen on the

1317
01:05:44,080 --> 01:05:48,400
Speaker 4: Road at West ham On Tuesday. This last match was

1318
01:05:48,480 --> 01:05:50,880
Speaker 4: quite hilarious because west Ham put on a counter attacking

1319
01:05:50,920 --> 01:05:54,080
Speaker 4: clinic created three expected goals, but that was when Brighton

1320
01:05:54,200 --> 01:05:56,680
Speaker 4: was playing more open, playing more aggressively. Now they've been

1321
01:05:56,760 --> 01:05:59,240
Speaker 4: much better defensively. They're only allowing one point one two

1322
01:05:59,280 --> 01:06:02,320
Speaker 4: non penalty keep for ninety minutes over their last ten matches.

1323
01:06:02,320 --> 01:06:04,960
Speaker 4: They're doing good job of building up using central progression

1324
01:06:05,240 --> 01:06:07,040
Speaker 4: and basically west Ham is going to have to do

1325
01:06:07,160 --> 01:06:09,840
Speaker 4: is basically be perfect out of possession like they were

1326
01:06:09,840 --> 01:06:11,840
Speaker 4: in that previous match. But they haven't been that good

1327
01:06:12,160 --> 01:06:15,640
Speaker 4: against good competition along eighteen point six expected goals in

1328
01:06:15,680 --> 01:06:17,640
Speaker 4: their eight matches against teams in the top half of

1329
01:06:17,640 --> 01:06:19,760
Speaker 4: the table. So I really don't think west Ham should

1330
01:06:19,760 --> 01:06:21,320
Speaker 4: be favored here at home. So I like Brighton on

1331
01:06:21,360 --> 01:06:23,480
Speaker 4: the road. John Obett plus one fifteen.

1332
01:06:23,880 --> 01:06:26,919
Speaker 2: I'm going to use Brighton tomorrow. John o Bett even

1333
01:06:26,960 --> 01:06:29,920
Speaker 2: money against Spurs. I just think that there's not really

1334
01:06:29,960 --> 01:06:32,440
Speaker 2: any difference between these two teams from an underlying perspective.

1335
01:06:32,480 --> 01:06:35,120
Speaker 2: The only advantage Spurs have is in goal. There's some

1336
01:06:35,160 --> 01:06:38,920
Speaker 2: defensive regression coming for Spurs. They're shorthanded their best defensive midfielder,

1337
01:06:39,000 --> 01:06:41,680
Speaker 2: their two best center backs. Brighton's healthier at the moment.

1338
01:06:41,680 --> 01:06:43,560
Speaker 2: They're at home. I like them, John O Bett.

1339
01:06:43,720 --> 01:06:46,920
Speaker 1: Okay, that does it for twenty twenty three Here on

1340
01:06:47,040 --> 01:06:49,760
Speaker 1: Wonder Goal. Thank you to everybody who's listened all year long.

1341
01:06:49,840 --> 01:06:52,720
Speaker 1: We wish you all the great New Year's Eve and

1342
01:06:52,800 --> 01:06:54,520
Speaker 1: New Year's Day. We will see you in a couple

1343
01:06:54,560 --> 01:06:57,160
Speaker 1: of weeks when the Premier League kicks back up. Until then,

1344
01:06:57,440 --> 01:06:59,320
Speaker 1: best of luck with all your bets, and thank you

1345
01:07:00,200 --> 01:07:07,600
Speaker 1: very very much for being there for us.

1346
01:07:08,480 --> 01:07:13,000
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1347
01:07:13,000 --> 01:07:15,800
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1348
01:07:15,840 --> 01:07:18,920
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler