1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: Single bust Idea, and we say good morning to all 3 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,919 Speaker 2: of you on Apple Podcasts. Thank you for looking at 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:22,080 Speaker 2: five six seven minutes of two conversations today. We've got 5 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 2: a bonus round three conversations today. Rebecca Patterson held court 6 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 2: at JP Morgan in foreign exchange. She had huge operational 7 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 2: responsibilities at Best in her trust and then went on 8 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:38,319 Speaker 2: to a small firm and Connecticut Bridgewater to provide some 9 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:40,720 Speaker 2: huge value add We were thrilled to have her in 10 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 2: the studio today. Particularly were their core foreign exchange fundamental 11 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:50,239 Speaker 2: foundational skills, I should say Rebecca Patterson on Japan and 12 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 2: the Yen. 13 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:53,479 Speaker 1: I'm a little more skeptical on Japan, just because I 14 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 1: think that their economy is still so dependent on the US, 15 00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 1: and if we have a bumpy landing in the US, 16 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 1: it's going to be hard for the Japanese equity market 17 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 1: to decouple. But overall, I think you want to stay. 18 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: I know it's very obvious, but diversified and geography is 19 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 1: not enough. We saw this Friday and Monday. When the 20 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:13,319 Speaker 1: stuff hits the fan, correlations go to one Europe Japan. 21 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:15,839 Speaker 1: They all sell off with the US, So that's not enough. 22 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 1: You have to be thinking about your assets, subassets, the 23 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 1: type of securities you own. I think that still includes 24 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,839 Speaker 1: treasuries and gold. And one place I would look at 25 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 1: overseas right now, which I think has gotten a little 26 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 1: bit ignored, is the UK very low beta equity market, 27 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:36,120 Speaker 1: very good, attractive valuations, and I think we'll see for 28 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: the first time in a while we have a grown 29 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:40,760 Speaker 1: up government that might bring some stability, and stability would 30 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 1: be a positive improvement, So that might be one to 31 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: look at as far as a defensive equity position that 32 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 1: you can get on sale right now. 33 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 2: Rebecca Patison there and where we are so many different 34 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 2: opinions today, I just want to mention as an aside, 35 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 2: grown up government was such a good band years ago. 36 00:01:56,880 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 2: They played Grand Funk Railroad like nobody com Paedison there 37 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 2: and again. Yeah, ONEIX seven. Fascinating to see where we 38 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 2: are in ninety days. I don't have a clue. What 39 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 2: I do have a clue on is it's important to 40 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 2: understand the research publishing of individuals and the nuances they take. 41 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 2: Jason Trennert, it's Strtigaus. You're working for years with ed 42 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 2: Heiman over at Isi, putting out his hugely successful Strtigis 43 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 2: research team, including Dan Clifton. Here's Jason Trnnert on a 44 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 2: real value add within his note within this modest panic, 45 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 2: Jason Trennert on market timing. 46 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 3: Market timing is very difficult, even for professionals. In my 47 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 3: career thirty five years, I haven't seen too many people 48 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:44,799 Speaker 3: that are that are good at that. Even among the 49 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 3: professional class there's a handful. It's certainly very difficult for 50 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 3: anyone kind of playing at home. It seems to me 51 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 3: there's just it's just too complex a market to do that, 52 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:58,519 Speaker 3: and whatever games you might have would probably be worn 53 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:02,080 Speaker 3: away either by taxes or or trading commission sir. So 54 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 3: the best thing to do longer term is it's boring, 55 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 3: it's cliche, is to stick with long term companies. And 56 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 3: as Warren Buffett said, my favorite holding period is forever. 57 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 2: Jason Trinett there, and that's a great quote from mister 58 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 2: Buffett about forever. I can't say enough the importance of 59 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:25,360 Speaker 2: looking at SPX total return first of all, is a 60 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:28,679 Speaker 2: general rule forty seven percent of the total return and 61 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 2: some reinvestment of dividends. But away from that, cliche is 62 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 2: the basic idea of your bundled SPX total return given 63 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 2: holding period, given one year, three year, five year, ten year, 64 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 2: twenty year holding period. It's irrefutable how stable that improvement 65 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 2: is is you hold over time? Jason trentet there with 66 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 2: finance one oh one. We've got Team Olympic covers. Thanks 67 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 2: to State Street Global for helping us with our summer 68 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 2: updates here of the Olympics in Paris. Thrilled to say 69 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 2: Katie Greifeld's schedule to be with us tomorrow with surveillance 70 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 2: team coverage from Plus Vendome. She's triangulated between Dior Chanelle 71 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 2: and Lewis. Uten's that we look forward to that, but 72 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:16,159 Speaker 2: we really had to go We had to go deep here, 73 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:21,679 Speaker 2: which is you know, synchronized swimming. Rebecca Patterson on how 74 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 2: hard it is to get your feet. 75 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 1: That far in the air, Just like Christine Leguard, I 76 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:29,280 Speaker 1: was a synchronized swimmer. So I'm all about that. Yes, 77 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 1: that's another conversation show. 78 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 2: We'll stop the show. Breaking news here. We got three 79 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 2: minutes left. 80 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 1: No no, no, no, no. 81 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 2: God's name do you put your feet up in the 82 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 2: air like that? I mean I talked to leguard yesterday 83 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:41,359 Speaker 2: about this. 84 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 1: How do you what are you doing. 85 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:47,240 Speaker 2: With your hands to get your feet that far up 86 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 2: in the air well. 87 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 1: The technical term is sculling, but you're just moving your 88 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 1: arms back and forth, almost like a little propeller. But 89 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 1: let's get back, let's get faction investors. Yes, now swimming 90 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 1: in the sun. No, not a million years sure. 91 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 2: Rebecca Pattis had taken over the interview, saying, Tom, lose 92 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:08,719 Speaker 2: the synchronized swimming rip. Let's get back to what matters. 93 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 2: What matters is the view forward again. For those of 94 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:14,599 Speaker 2: you seeing this early, President Trump with a press conference 95 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 2: at two pm will make news for both Harris and 96 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:20,359 Speaker 2: for Trump. That'll be interesting to see. Balance of Power 97 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 2: will have coverage on that. We go to tomorrow. I am 98 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:27,839 Speaker 2: through perfect Friday sweening off for the fifteenth consecutive Friday. 99 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 2: David Gerra scheduled to be with me on Surveillance tomorrow 100 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:36,240 Speaker 2: as we look at the international relations, the investment, the finance, 101 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 2: and yes, the economics of America. From New York City 102 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 2: on Ample Podcasts. This is a single best idea