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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us proud read.

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Speaker 2: Enough there were running again, so smoothe so sweet.

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Speaker 3: Splendid sixteen just glorious.

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Speaker 2: Extecution.

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Speaker 4: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 4: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that?

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Speaker 4: Shop with mind? Good buddy, and that's why you see

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Speaker 4: your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 3: Look at his movements the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 4: Shut up, I'm trying the one it's left to of

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Speaker 4: the wide eyed, drilled bibews.

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Speaker 3: How old Earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 5: Hello everyone, welcome back to Wondergol, the soccer bettic podcast

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Speaker 5: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Lee Buff

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Speaker 5: and joining me as always for this podcast are Anthony

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Speaker 5: Dubundo BJ Cunningham. But before I bring those two gentlemen

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Speaker 5: in and we go on a handicapping journey through the

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Speaker 5: midweek fixtures in the Premier League, touch on some European

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Speaker 5: action as well, maybe a little a f Con update

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Speaker 5: from BJ. But before we get to that fun, let's

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Speaker 5: play some bills and remind you that wonder Goal is

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Speaker 5: presented by bet three sixty five and Bet three sixty

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Speaker 5: five doesn't do ordinary. It believes that every sport should

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Speaker 5: be epic, every tournament, every game, every point, every play,

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Speaker 5: from the moments that are legendary to the ones that

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Speaker 5: fly under the radar.

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Speaker 1: See for yourself when you sign up.

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Speaker 5: Today with promo Code Action and you get three hundred

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Speaker 5: and sixty five dollars in bonus bets when you bet

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Speaker 5: just one dollar. Whatever the sport, whatever the moment, it's

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Speaker 5: never an ordinary. At bet three six five, you must

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Speaker 5: be twenty one or older. You must be present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky,

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Speaker 5: New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia. And if you or someone

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Speaker 5: you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please

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Speaker 5: call one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio,

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Speaker 5: and Virginia, or went eight hundred bets off in Iowa.

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Speaker 5: Terms and conditions apply. And of course a very special

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Speaker 5: welcome to all the listeners who maybe are here for

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Speaker 5: the first time looking to fill the gap between the

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Speaker 5: AFC and NFC Championships and.

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Speaker 1: The Super Bowl.

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Speaker 5: Maybe you heard about the way we broke down the

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Speaker 5: Australian Open at the end of our the last time

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Speaker 5: I was on this pod and nailed it and that's

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Speaker 5: why you hear you want more tennis tidbits. Maybe we'll

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Speaker 5: talk a little Sue de France Montpellier coming up indoor

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Speaker 5: hard court season. This is one of my favorite times

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Speaker 5: on the sporting calendar because the Premier League stretch run starts.

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Speaker 5: Then we get to the knockout phases of Champions League.

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Speaker 5: The hockey playoff races heated up.

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Speaker 1: Of course.

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Speaker 5: Listen to line change on the Action Network podcasts. Family

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Speaker 5: Tennisse season gets into full swing. The Australian Football League

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Speaker 5: season starts. We just saw a monumental upset Anthony this

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Speaker 5: past weekend. In cricket, the West Indies beat Australia in

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Speaker 5: a Test match. Schamar Joseph look him up. Basically was

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Speaker 5: just playing a quote and unquote jungle cricket in Guyana

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Speaker 5: and now might be the best cricketer in the world

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Speaker 5: for the West Indies.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 5: Guy never seen like an iPhone before, maybe until like

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Speaker 5: he was fifteen. Crazy stuff.

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Speaker 2: I think the Twitter algorithm's got our twitters mixed up

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Speaker 2: because I got a bunch of for you stuff about

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Speaker 2: the West Indies cricket win.

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Speaker 5: I mean it was an incredible up incredible like, and

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Speaker 5: it was this this guy's story.

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Speaker 4: It's Michael liking every tweet.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, Michael. Yeah. But you may not be interested

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Speaker 3: in Shamar Joseph.

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Speaker 1: Please read the stories.

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Speaker 3: It's it's it's it's.

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Speaker 5: Not every maybe once a year you hear about, you know,

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Speaker 5: a story and it kind of stops you in your track.

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Speaker 1: This one is one.

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Speaker 5: But we're not here to talk about Shamar Joseph and

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Speaker 5: West Indies.

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Speaker 3: I should be wearing Withanick Center.

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Speaker 5: We're not here to talk about Yannick Center. We're here

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Speaker 5: to talk about some some footy. We want to talk

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Speaker 5: about the Premier League. We're here to talk about.

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Speaker 1: Nottingham Forest and Arsenal.

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Speaker 5: At the top of the show, Forrest's plus seven fifty

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Speaker 5: uh at home hosting Arsenal minus two fifty and the

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Speaker 5: draw here pays out.

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Speaker 1: Plus three fifty.

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Speaker 5: I think it's pretty damn thing here, Anthony the number

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Speaker 5: one freest uh. You know that the underlying numbers look okay,

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Speaker 5: like better than they were going a little bit of

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Speaker 5: a new manager bump, perhaps two wins two losses under

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Speaker 5: the former Wolves and Spurs manager, and the Arsenal defensive

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Speaker 5: numbers are starting to come back down to earth and

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Speaker 5: for a team that can't you can't really count on

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Speaker 5: them to run up a score. That's a problem, right,

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Speaker 5: you want their margin for error to be a little

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Speaker 5: bit wider. So what do you think you're in p

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Speaker 5: we talk about here little five Yeah, yeah, I know, yeah,

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Speaker 5: that was the last time they've done that.

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Speaker 1: In the Premier League.

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Speaker 4: Was it's just getting started?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll see, uh.

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Speaker 5: Before we get to bj Anthony, your thoughts here. I

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Speaker 5: think that the odds are a little too wide.

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Speaker 3: Do we know is Arteta in or out?

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Speaker 4: So he is not because the Barcelona job apparently is

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Speaker 4: up for grabs now, which I still don't believe it's

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Speaker 4: gonna throwing down. So people think that he's going to

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Speaker 4: take a spec then take the Barcelona draft. But that

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Speaker 4: report has been since corrected in is fake Anthony?

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Speaker 2: Okay, Yeah, so there's some injury question marks here for

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Speaker 2: for not Eham Forest that I do think matter. I

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Speaker 2: am concerned about their defense. We talked about their defensive

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Speaker 2: situation right now. Last week we talked about the Brentford

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Speaker 2: Forest game, which somehow closed two and a half.

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Speaker 3: That was a bad number.

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Speaker 2: And you know Bali orier cuyaate Niakate and Aina and

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Speaker 2: sangare pretty much like the entire defensive outfit slash ball

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Speaker 2: winning unit, Like all of their talented players are going

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Speaker 2: to be still at Afcon most likely. So you've got

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Speaker 2: a really tricky situation where you know, like can they

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Speaker 2: stop Arsenal.

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Speaker 3: I'm not really that confident in that, And you.

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Speaker 2: Mentioned it, Michael, like we talked about how elite, elite

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Speaker 2: the Arsenal defense was, and the market has taken notice

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Speaker 2: of that. At what point do we say, is it

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Speaker 2: possible to be as good as they have been and

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Speaker 2: is there naturally just going to be like a small

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Speaker 2: drop off and their defensive numbers, and should we read

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Speaker 2: more into that maybe than saying like, oh, this attack

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Speaker 2: can't score, which is kind of like the prevailing square narrative. Now,

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Speaker 2: I feel like everybody's kind of caught onto that, Like

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Speaker 2: it's not exactly rocket science to be like, well, you know,

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Speaker 2: Arsenal have been inconsistent in front of goal, which is true,

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Speaker 2: like they're running even with their XG. They've got a

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Speaker 2: lot of key players running cold. Their set pieces though,

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Speaker 2: have been dynamite, and they've been really good with the

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Speaker 2: pick plays. You know, it's becoming more and more prevalent

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Speaker 2: in soccer. You're seeing teams like run like off ball

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Speaker 2: screens like it's the NBA, and then getting their tall

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Speaker 2: players freeheaders. Pretty much like if you go back and

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Speaker 2: look at the game they played against Palace, Arsenal didn't

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Speaker 2: create much from open play. It was set piece goal,

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Speaker 2: set piece goal. It was like throwing Ali oops and

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Speaker 2: then they're dunking it in and then a counter attack

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Speaker 2: off of a corner from Forest or off from Palace.

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Speaker 2: So you know, I lean toward Forrest here. The attack

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Speaker 2: has been better. But also Ilanga might miss now like

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Speaker 2: he's been out.

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Speaker 3: So if I had to bet this, I would take

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Speaker 3: Forest at home. It's just a lean from me.

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Speaker 2: I'm kind of hoping that we get more Arsenal money

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Speaker 2: and I can get like a flat one and a half,

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Speaker 2: in which case I will bet.

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Speaker 3: The trees for sure. I don't think they get there,

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Speaker 3: but it's going a quarter now, so.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean this is this is high for Arsenal.

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Speaker 4: I don't know who out there is gonna be laying

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Speaker 4: this type of price. Darsenal maybe put him in a parlayever,

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Speaker 4: but yeah, I mean, you haven't nail and had Anthony

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Speaker 4: is that Arsenal has kind of become Dare I say

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Speaker 4: what Tottenham was last year where they just kind of

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Speaker 4: struggled from open play and just were really really good

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Speaker 4: on set pieces and that was just kind of it.

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Speaker 4: And set pieces are obviously a huge part of the game.

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Speaker 4: So you know, it's not like, you know, you can

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Speaker 4: score from whatever the method possible, but it's it's nice

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Speaker 4: to be able to actually create and sustainably score from

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Speaker 4: open play, which Arsenal has struggled with. Party might be

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Speaker 4: back for this match. I'm not sure, maybe it's the

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Speaker 4: next match, but I know he's getting really close to

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Speaker 4: his return, which I think is really going to transform

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Speaker 4: Arsenal in their ability to uh not only you know,

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Speaker 4: the defensive numbers have been kind of going up a

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Speaker 4: little bit. You know, you mentioned it one, you know,

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Speaker 4: one point two to Fulham, you know, one point four

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Speaker 4: there was a penalty in there to west Ham, even

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Speaker 4: one to Liverpool. I mean, they're still they're still fine,

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Speaker 4: They're just not you know, in terms of like elite

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Speaker 4: elite what we've been seeing. So for me, it's a pass.

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Speaker 4: I have Arsenal minus one sixty, so it's definitely tempting

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Speaker 4: on for ust, but like you mentioned, antony, their whole

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Speaker 4: defense is out, So who's actually got to stop them

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Speaker 4: if they go in transition? So to pass for me?

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Speaker 2: Right when we talk about like regression, and you know,

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Speaker 2: we talk in absolute sometimes, but like we're literally talking

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Speaker 2: about like should Arsenal be giving up point four point

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Speaker 2: six x g or is it going to be closer

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Speaker 2: to like one when they go on the road, because

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Speaker 2: there is a big difference overall in the long run

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Speaker 2: over a team. It's allowing you know, like last year

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Speaker 2: Arsenal was right around one per ninety. This year they've

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Speaker 2: been much better than that. So like if they can

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Speaker 2: maintain you know, can they maintain under one per ninety

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Speaker 2: in the prem that's a you know, that's a really

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Speaker 2: fascinating situation. Right now, they're they're close to like point

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Speaker 2: eight last year. Again, like I said, closer to one,

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Speaker 2: So can they can they maintain you know, those incredibly

200
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Speaker 2: dominant numbers. I'm just kind of skeptical, and we have

201
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Speaker 2: seen four US be at least have more ideas in transition.

202
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Speaker 2: They've scored a bunch of goals from outside the box, right,

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Speaker 2: Like they had the banger against Brentford to open the scoring.

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Speaker 2: They Gibbs White hit one from from twenty yards against United,

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Speaker 2: but they have looked more lively in transition, but again

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Speaker 2: like it's hard to get against Arsenal.

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Speaker 3: So overall I think this is for us to nothing

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Speaker 3: and we move.

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Speaker 4: We've also been trying to build out of the back

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Speaker 4: a little bit more, not as playing ass direct. And

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Speaker 4: if you try to build out of the Arsenal like

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Speaker 4: Arsenal literally you know, our power mark stats put out

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Speaker 4: a nice graphic and Arsenal's literally the best counters team. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: so good luck.

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Speaker 3: I can just see like it's two to one Arsenal.

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Speaker 3: Forrest are trying to build and then.

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Speaker 2: Turner makes a bad pass three to one Arsenal and

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Speaker 2: like the eighty eighty fifth minute, and then I'm sitting

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Speaker 2: there like shit out of luck.

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Speaker 5: All right, let's move on to these matches the first five.

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Speaker 5: We'll talk about Earth on Tuesday afternoon. Next up is

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Speaker 5: Fulham and Everdon. Fulham sitting plus four at home, Everdon

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Speaker 5: underdog on the road at plus two hundred. The draw

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Speaker 5: here is plus two twenty five. Of course, these two

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Speaker 5: teams met week one. Everton dominated in a one nothing

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Speaker 5: loss a sign of things to come. And yeah, I

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Speaker 5: think it's it's gonna be the same old I was

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Speaker 5: on vacation and I come back and it's I think

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Speaker 5: it's gonna be the same kind of conversation that we've had,

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Speaker 5: except the only difference here is that when I went

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Speaker 5: away on vacation, Everdon got slapped with another FFP charge,

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Speaker 5: so we'll see where that lands. My one concern here

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Speaker 5: is that the Toffees look spent. That Newton Town match

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Speaker 5: was scrappy and ugly and it just didn't look like

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Speaker 5: they had the legs in the f A Cup over

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Speaker 5: the weekend and the loss at home, so that is concerning.

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Speaker 5: But I think just as a numbers played, it's got

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Speaker 5: to be Everdon or nothing here.

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Speaker 3: BJ.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I have a tricky question. I'm gonna let Anthony

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Speaker 4: go first because I think Michael, you know the answer

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Speaker 4: to this one. When Everson played Fulham on match week one,

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Speaker 4: who was starting up top for Everton?

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Speaker 3: All right, so Calvert Luhn was not fit.

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Speaker 2: And obviously they hadn't they hadn't bought Beto yet, so

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Speaker 2: I'll go Neil Mope yep.

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Speaker 4: And he missed two huge chances too, and then he

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Speaker 4: got sold sold to Brentford. Yeah. Well then again so

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Speaker 4: obviously Everton dominated the matchpick they played again in the

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Speaker 4: League Cup and Everton was by far the better team

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Speaker 4: in that match as well, actually was one point four

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Speaker 4: to point four. Folam had a known goal and just

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Speaker 4: really honestly did nothing. So basically we've had two matches

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Speaker 4: to sample size to be fare to Fallham. They will

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Speaker 4: both were at Goodison Park, so they were playing away

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Speaker 4: from home, but again Everton dominated both of those matches.

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Speaker 4: Now the concerning things here for Fulham number one, I

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Speaker 4: didn't think they were that bad against Newcastle in the

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Speaker 4: FA Cup over the weekend. I thought they actually dominated

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Speaker 4: the match for large stretches of it. I thought they'd

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Speaker 4: built out of the back very well. But what happened

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Speaker 4: was is they conceded two goals offfo set pieces and

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Speaker 4: that's something they have struggled with this season and that's

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Speaker 4: a bad recipe when you're going against Everton. Whiz scored

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Speaker 4: the second most goals office set pieces and for the

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Speaker 4: Fullham offense, I mean we've obviously talked about them like

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Speaker 4: at length on this podcast. They had went to that

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Speaker 4: crazy Eiching run for like four matches overall for the season,

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Speaker 4: they're at one point one to three to nine penalty

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Speaker 4: Actually for ninety minutes, they're doing a really poor job

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Speaker 4: of just getting into the opponent's penalty area. They're dead

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Speaker 4: last and final third to box entry conversion rate, second

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Speaker 4: fewest touches in the penalty area, behind only Sheffield United.

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Speaker 4: So who's one of the best possession teams I think

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Speaker 4: in the community right now with their ability to not

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Speaker 4: only press high if Fulham wants to try to build out,

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Speaker 4: the can cause a lot of problems. Actually that's how

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Speaker 4: they created a lot of their chances against Fulham in

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Speaker 4: that very first meeting, or their ability to sit in

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Speaker 4: a defensive block and defend their penalty area. I mean,

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Speaker 4: Everton still has allowed the fewest big scoring chants in

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Speaker 4: the community. So I don't really see a method here

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Speaker 4: of why Fulham should be this big of a favorite

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Speaker 4: at home. I have Everton's road favorite here. I mean

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Speaker 4: the underlying numbers have been significantly everything Fulham's. So give

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Speaker 4: me Everton drawn up bed. I mean you can find

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Speaker 4: the highest plus one twenty right now, which I think

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Speaker 4: is kind of a crazy price, and if you want

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Speaker 4: to play them on the money line. I mean they

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Speaker 4: should not be over two to one here on the road.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So you know, Everton have not been good in the

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Speaker 2: last four to five matches, and uh, you know, I

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Speaker 2: think the point you made Michael about the fatigue, I

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Speaker 2: think is certainly something right because we talked about this

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Speaker 2: Everton team and we're like, look, coming into the year,

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Speaker 2: they don't have a ton of depth. But like when

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Speaker 2: the first you know, first thirteen to fourteen players are healthy,

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Speaker 2: like they have real talent here and we trust Dice

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Speaker 2: and they clearly had a period where things were going

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Speaker 2: good and they were you know, getting priced up at

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Speaker 2: this really elite level relatively speaking of course, like seventh

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Speaker 2: eighth best team in the prem And you know, now

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Speaker 2: as they reach this point where they look really dead

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Speaker 2: on their feet and they don't have the depth to rotate,

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Speaker 2: is the market overvaluing them? I don't think so, right, because,

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Speaker 2: like you said, BJ, like the number here is just

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Speaker 2: like not really conducive to backing Fulham. But I do

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Speaker 2: think you can play against Everton's legs and grab the

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Speaker 2: under here because Fulham have been good their last two

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Speaker 2: games against Liverpool and the Cup. Liverpool played a pretty

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Speaker 2: strong team in that match, and then they played Newcastle

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Speaker 2: and you can see all of the problems like Fulham's

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Speaker 2: attacking group that they were under one XG against Newcastle

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Speaker 2: today like or yesterday they were not. I mean, that's

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Speaker 2: a Newcastle team that hasn'topped anybody for months. And then

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Speaker 2: you know the match prior against Liverpool they did rotate

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Speaker 2: some of their defenders at home home you come in

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Speaker 2: down a goal and you go down early, tore down

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Speaker 2: two goals for the entire sequence. You don't even really

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Speaker 2: get to one XG either. So I do think there's

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Speaker 2: real questions about Fulham's attack, as you mentioned, and I

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Speaker 2: think Everton's attack is kind of just like running on

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Speaker 2: fumes right now and uh and struggling so away from home.

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Speaker 2: I think Diish is gonna play this a little more conservatively,

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Speaker 2: and thus I don't even show value on the number,

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Speaker 2: but I like under two and a half. At minus

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Speaker 2: one twenty, I think it's a little bit high. You

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Speaker 2: go back and look at like even the last meeting

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Speaker 2: Fulham generated nothing and Everton, you know, played down a

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Speaker 2: goal most of the match and still didn't get much

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Speaker 2: going for them. So I think both these attacks are

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Speaker 2: kind of just like struggling right now, and this is

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Speaker 2: an ugly, ugly, ugly Premier League under.

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Speaker 3: That will probably lose.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, they went out in in a four four two

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Speaker 5: with with Beto and Dominic cavert lewin against loot Town.

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Speaker 1: It just didn't work. But they really don't.

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Speaker 2: Have the BJ parlay that you should have been there, Michael,

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Speaker 2: BJ parlay too. Two f A Cup favorites on Saturday,

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Speaker 2: the second worst bet.

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Speaker 1: And I'm sure it hit. I'm sure it won because

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Speaker 1: bets like that always went.

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Speaker 3: Always to be fair.

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Speaker 4: It was plus one fifty. It's not like that was

346
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Speaker 4: part like to be like Anthony's over reacting. Hey guess what,

347
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Speaker 4: Brighton won five too, So at least I got one

348
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Speaker 4: of the two, right.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, but my chances they did, And my my point is,

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Speaker 5: I think it's actually good that they did that.

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Speaker 1: As I said, like we learned.

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Speaker 5: Something that like that doesn't work because you could make

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Speaker 5: the argument without decore and their squad being as thin

354
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Speaker 5: as it is right now, that's probably there the way

355
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Speaker 5: they'd have to play. But now that they saw that

356
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Speaker 5: it didn't work, it's uh, they'll beIN it and try

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Speaker 5: something a little bit better. Uh, Okay, BJ you're the

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Speaker 5: only one with anything here on Looton Town. There plus

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Speaker 5: three fifty home underdog to Brighton minus one fifty in

360
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Speaker 5: the draws plus three thirty three.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I love over three plus one five here. I mean.

362
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Speaker 4: The thing about it is is these Brighton matches, given

363
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Speaker 4: their style of play right now, it's just so game

364
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Speaker 4: state dependent on whether if we get an early goal,

365
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Speaker 4: then teams have to come out of this you know,

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Speaker 4: slow defensive like cutting off central progression block that you

367
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Speaker 4: know Sheffield United tried to play and they got scored

368
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Speaker 4: on and then obviously all chaos and suit I mean Lowtontown.

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Speaker 4: It's like the same story every single week. They're just

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Speaker 4: slow blocks, not good enough to keep good offensive teams

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Speaker 4: at bay even if they are at home. Last twelve

372
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Speaker 4: Premier League matches, they have conceded thirteen point that excuse me,

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Speaker 4: thirty two point five expected goals, twenty big scoring chances

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Speaker 4: and have only held two of those twelve opponents under

375
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Speaker 4: one and a half expected goals and Burnley and a

376
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Speaker 4: very tired Newcastle team. The biggest problem is, like I said,

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Speaker 4: when they fall behind, they have to come out. They'll

378
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Speaker 4: have to press Brighton to have to give Brighton what

379
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Speaker 4: they want and then Brighton will basically just play right

380
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Speaker 4: through them when playing from behind. The season, Luton Town

381
00:17:59,920 --> 00:18:03,840
Speaker 4: is allowing two point one three x g per ninety minutes.

382
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Speaker 4: But for offensively for Loutontown, I think this is kind

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Speaker 4: of a decent batchup for them because of how obsessed

384
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Speaker 4: Deserbey is with playing through the middle. So when they

385
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Speaker 4: do win the ball, what does Loutontown want to do?

386
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Speaker 4: They want to get the ball wide and they want

387
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:19,879
Speaker 4: to send and crosses. So there is acres of space

388
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Speaker 4: Outlide to be had against Brighton, especially in transition. I mean,

389
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Speaker 4: Brighton's still not a great defensive transition team. They're still

390
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:30,320
Speaker 4: dead last the Premier League and final third box entry

391
00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:34,680
Speaker 4: conversion rate allowed. In the Brighton offense, they faced a

392
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Speaker 4: lot of the blocks and they're actually improving offensively as well.

393
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Speaker 4: Thirteen goals in their last five matches in all competitions,

394
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Speaker 4: ten point eight expected goals. Deserves starting to play a

395
00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:48,119
Speaker 4: little bit more aggressive, which is an encouraging sign to

396
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Speaker 4: see if you're somebody who likes to back over to them.

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Speaker 4: So projected three point seven goals for this match, So

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Speaker 4: I like over three at plus one oh five.

399
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Speaker 5: Okay, Palace and Sheffield United up next with another two.

400
00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:02,320
Speaker 5: They match up here and this is about as ugly

401
00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:05,399
Speaker 5: as they come. Palace laying minus one sixty three at home,

402
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:08,720
Speaker 5: Sheffield United traveling to sell her park as a plus

403
00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:13,160
Speaker 5: five fifty underdog. The draw here is plus two sixty.

404
00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,200
Speaker 5: All three of us are passing here. The one little

405
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:20,000
Speaker 5: tidbit I would say is it's really really, really really

406
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:26,000
Speaker 5: hard to get us to bet Crystal Palace at minus one.

407
00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 4: Yeah thirty without especially Noah Leasse.

408
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,200
Speaker 5: I mean Sheffield units one twice. They've flust fifteen out

409
00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:35,919
Speaker 5: of twenty one this season, and you know, to their

410
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,240
Speaker 5: credit to of their their four draws have come in

411
00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 5: the last five matches, so you know, Chris, Chris Wilder,

412
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:45,120
Speaker 5: I guess is getting a relative improvement and Palace has

413
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Speaker 5: not been good lately or generally this season at all.

414
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:51,560
Speaker 5: So I mean, if you want action on the game,

415
00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:55,640
Speaker 5: I would say maybe sprinkle United, but it's it's hard

416
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 5: to get you all draws like a Neil nil is

417
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Speaker 5: actually not a bit bet here go crazy?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I use back right then.

419
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Speaker 2: That's the problem for them is like Okay, you know,

420
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:10,159
Speaker 2: does Jordan I you matter, not really, but like the

421
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:14,479
Speaker 2: downgrade yeah, without him certainly feels like behind them it's

422
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:19,800
Speaker 2: like Jeffrey Schlump and then like some kids.

423
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Speaker 1: A Premier League champion.

424
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Speaker 2: That's true, and he was decent in twenty fifteen, but

425
00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:24,120
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen but not anymore.

426
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Speaker 3: And you know, I think from.

427
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Speaker 2: The reality of like, okay, this this Sheffield team in

428
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:33,600
Speaker 2: a home run spot at home against like very injured

429
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 2: slash missing players west Ham, like still gave up over

430
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 2: one non penalty XG like barely if like that spot

431
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,919
Speaker 2: should have been like come out and really give something.

432
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Speaker 2: And they have been better under Wilder. The market power

433
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Speaker 2: ratings like have them just like a smidge worse than

434
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:55,639
Speaker 2: Newton Town now, which you know was not true in

435
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:57,680
Speaker 2: the first half of the season that we've played so far.

436
00:20:57,880 --> 00:20:59,680
Speaker 2: So you know, credit to them for improving. I talked

437
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 2: about all the stats last time. They went from conceding

438
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 2: two and a half XG per match to about one

439
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:07,240
Speaker 2: point six since Wilder came in, and their extra difference

440
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:10,719
Speaker 2: per ninety went from oover minus one, like worse than

441
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:13,600
Speaker 2: minus one per match to minus point five now. So

442
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:17,440
Speaker 2: it's again like it's marginal improvement. It's the classic new

443
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 2: manager situation. They're playing very defensive and like Pallas beat

444
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:24,199
Speaker 2: the shit out of them in the first meeting of

445
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 2: the season and really dominated. The number isn't quite good

446
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 2: enough for me to get involved on Sheffield though, So

447
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 2: I think if you want to get involved, it's maybe

448
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 2: like just take some draw like chase a price, as

449
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:37,959
Speaker 2: opposed to just taking like plus one minus one ten

450
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:39,919
Speaker 2: and then being like, well, hopefully they only win by

451
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 2: one if they get the league, because they could just

452
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,160
Speaker 2: no show and Palace.

453
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,640
Speaker 3: Could could get a a get right home win. Here

454
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 3: Roys in some trouble.

455
00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 1: I've always never in trouble.

456
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:50,440
Speaker 3: I think he actually.

457
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,639
Speaker 2: Feels like he's did you see who was in the

458
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:58,199
Speaker 2: stands at the last match? I did see, Michael, did

459
00:21:58,200 --> 00:21:59,199
Speaker 2: you see who was in the stands?

460
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 5: Uh?

461
00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 4: I know?

462
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,160
Speaker 3: Was it Ram Potter was in the stands?

463
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:05,919
Speaker 1: He would never do You would never do that.

464
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 4: There's some better jobs opening up right now, Arsenal.

465
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 3: So no Arsenal opening, Real Madrid might open. You never

466
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,440
Speaker 3: know Real Madrid hiring Graham Potter.

467
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 5: No. First of all, if even if Roy gets handed

468
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 5: up mandatory sabbatical, he'll be back and be back by Saint.

469
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 4: Patri's second Crystal Palace like sniff the relegation, he'll be back.

470
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 1: He's not.

471
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 3: By the way, they're not like totally safe.

472
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 2: I mean they're pretty safe because they're better than the

473
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:39,639
Speaker 2: team's chasing them. Like they're they've got five points on

474
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,120
Speaker 2: Luton and like it's hard to see Luton being five

475
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 2: points better than Palace rest of season. But uh, they're

476
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 2: they're at the point now where like two or three

477
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 2: bad results and you could start to say, well, actually

478
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 2: we're kind of in some ship here, and they were

479
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 2: not competitive with Arsenal. They were you know, like I

480
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 2: mentioned this before their their.

481
00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:58,680
Speaker 3: Game last week.

482
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 2: I said, like, Palace have scored four goals in their

483
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,199
Speaker 2: last five matches and three of them were by Elise

484
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 2: and Esa. Yep, now a Lisa is hurt again.

485
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I think you could also flip that

486
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:15,439
Speaker 5: script about Palace a bit like that.

487
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:17,920
Speaker 1: It's been a tough schedule. It has so.

488
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:20,959
Speaker 2: Every time with palas like they get beat and then

489
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 2: we're like, well, actually they.

490
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 3: Have they put a lot of the good teams.

491
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then we forget, like, oh, they come home

492
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,680
Speaker 2: against Sheffield, they win, like two to zero and yep,

493
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 2: that's just like how it goes.

494
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:30,359
Speaker 4: All right.

495
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 5: Last game on Tuesday is Aston Villa taking on Newcastle.

496
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 5: Villa is odds on at home minus one tenth, Newcastle

497
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 5: traveling has a plus two sixty underdog and the draw

498
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:47,200
Speaker 5: here is three to one. Villa is five points off

499
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,159
Speaker 5: of the pace set by Liverpool right now in the

500
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 5: Premier League. Liverpool's on forty eight City Arsenal and Villa

501
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 5: on forty three. Cities played one fewer game than basically

502
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 5: everybody in the league. It doesn't feel as straightforward with

503
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 5: Villa anymore. The last United they the neil nil against everten,

504
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 5: the even that the win over Burnley to close out

505
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:16,920
Speaker 5: twenty twenty three, that said, I'm so sick and tired

506
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,640
Speaker 5: of trying to figure out Newcastle. I'm just so sick

507
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 5: and tired of it. So BJ, I think you probably

508
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,480
Speaker 5: are onto the right path here with your bed.

509
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like over three, which is around even money.

510
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 4: Right now, they're excuse me, one twelve, So pretty much

511
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 4: two different type of stuff going on, two difment type

512
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 4: of things going on for Newcastle. Out of possession right now,

513
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 4: they either try to press with ther normal four three

514
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 4: three has made them really really good over the last

515
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 4: few years and why we've backed them so many times,

516
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:52,439
Speaker 4: why they've caused team so many problems, which is what

517
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 4: they did by aston Ville in the first match for

518
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:58,400
Speaker 4: the season. But the press isn't hitting home right now.

519
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:02,400
Speaker 4: They're getting played through over and over again. No, Jillington

520
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 4: has been a big loss for them. He's their most

521
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 4: physical presser, huge, huge loss. He is the one you

522
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 4: know in the front three press. He is the one

523
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 4: covering the you know, central defense, the central midfielder, trying

524
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 4: to aid and build up. So without him it makes

525
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 4: it a lot more difficult, difficult, difficult for Newcastle to

526
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 4: continue pressing life that he might do. So what Eddie

527
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 4: Howe has done is he switched his team to a

528
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:29,400
Speaker 4: four or five to one passive defensive structure out of possession.

529
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 4: And the Manchester City match was very, very evident that

530
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 4: they are just not good at all in that because

531
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 4: what they try to do they try to cut off

532
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,879
Speaker 4: all these passes ring the center part of the pitch.

533
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 4: But what happened to time and time again is there's

534
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 4: too much space in between the two defensive lines, so

535
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:49,159
Speaker 4: City would just move guys around in there, they'd exploit

536
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 4: that space and they would just create a chance. That's

537
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:53,879
Speaker 4: a chance, have a chance, and good build up teams

538
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 4: will do that to you if you are if you

539
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 4: decide to play passive, a team like aston Villa who

540
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 4: is good in build up can't exploit that. But the

541
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:05,400
Speaker 4: other side of the coin, Michael is is that if

542
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:09,160
Speaker 4: Newcastle decide to press like they normally do, they can

543
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,119
Speaker 4: cause problems for aston Villa, who are a little bit

544
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 4: shaky across their back line. Looks like pow Torres is

545
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 4: going to be out for this match. Who's their best

546
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:19,880
Speaker 4: ball carrying center back. So I think no matter what

547
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,920
Speaker 4: Newcastle decides to do at a possession that it creates

548
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 4: a lot of chaos and you can give aston Villa

549
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 4: either a good chance offensively or it can cause a

550
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 4: lot of turnovers and either way can create a very

551
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:34,640
Speaker 4: back and forth type game. Newcastle, like I mentioned against

552
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 4: earlier against Fulham, they are only two goals they scored

553
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 4: were off a set pieces. Well, guess what their second

554
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 4: in the Premier League this season and actually for set

555
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,120
Speaker 4: piece in Aniston Villa is dead last, so at least

556
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 4: they have an advantage there. So with how bad Newcastle

557
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 4: has been defensively. I mean they've conceded the most expected

558
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 4: goals of anybody in the Premier League since the beginning

559
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,679
Speaker 4: of November, and where they're kind of just stuck between

560
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 4: these two different possession structures that both really aren't working.

561
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 4: I think the totals two up. I mean I protected

562
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 4: three point six goals for this match, so over three

563
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 4: minus one twelve is good enough for me to play it.

564
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 2: So crazy how quickly this team deteriorated into just like

565
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 2: and it's all xcheper shot is just through the roof.

566
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 2: They're giving up an average xcheper shot a point one

567
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 2: point nine since the Bourne Myth match. The average in

568
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 2: the prem is point one, so it's almost double.

569
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 3: I mean, think about that. I think how insane that is. Now.

570
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,439
Speaker 2: There was the Liverpool game that was a little bit

571
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:38,119
Speaker 2: of an outlier, but you know, they they're overall XGA numbers.

572
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 2: You mentioned a BJ Like it's it's really hard when

573
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 2: a team has such a dramatic change because usually like

574
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 2: the changes over the course of a season are marginal

575
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 2: and you're like, well, you know, it's just up flipping

576
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:49,919
Speaker 2: the radar and like this is like not this is

577
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:53,120
Speaker 2: like hitting This is the Titanic hitting the iceberg and

578
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 2: they have no answer.

579
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 3: They did the ship is sinking and at what point

580
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 3: do we try to buy I don't know. I already

581
00:27:58,720 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 3: tried once.

582
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 4: I've tried four.

583
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:06,399
Speaker 5: Times, Yeah tried, I've tried one hundred times.

584
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 3: And uh yeah actually well yeah they give up three.

585
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:11,159
Speaker 4: I mean this is this is like if if the

586
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 4: Newcastle has any sort of life with their high price,

587
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 4: like this is the match where they have to show it.

588
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 2: And if you like, if you ever design a team

589
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:20,679
Speaker 2: to pick on Villa, like a team that has good

590
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:23,159
Speaker 2: runners one on one running out of people like Almroon

591
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 2: is gonna be out, but like, I don't know, they

592
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:26,160
Speaker 2: can do better.

593
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 3: Uh Like it's not a terrible matchup on paper, but

594
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 3: it's not even a good number.

595
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a problems good number.

596
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 2: Like the beginning of the season, right, Villa Newcastle was

597
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 2: like minus one thirty at home We were like, well,

598
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 2: Newcastle is much better than Villa, right.

599
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, they think their reputations have flipped here.

600
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,479
Speaker 2: B J laid it and like they won in dominant fashion,

601
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 2: went way over and now you would say, well, of

602
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 2: course Villa is a much better team than Newcastle, and like,

603
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 2: I've been a Villa skeptic all year, but there's no

604
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 2: way in hell you could make that case.

605
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 3: They're not. So why is there only minus one ten?

606
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 2: It's the market underrating Villa now, like the whole luck narrative,

607
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 2: like are they underrating Villa?

608
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 4: I don't know.

609
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 3: We've been saying for.

610
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 2: Weeks that, like why is the market so low on Newcastle?

611
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 2: Right because we were like, wow, it's only been a

612
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 2: couple of games, and we've now determined that, like the

613
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 2: market was probably right and ahead of us on Newcastle

614
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 2: being shit. So then why now are we saying why

615
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 2: is Villa so cheap against Newcastle when we've been saying

616
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 2: for for forever that the market's been underrating Newcastle. So

617
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 2: it's kind of interesting that how it all comes together.

618
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 2: But like, so the market has Villa right now? Where

619
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 2: do you think if you just take like expected points

620
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 2: for the rest of the season, you can pull up

621
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 2: the betting odds like live point total odds, so for

622
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 2: the rest of the season, you know, it's not really

623
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 2: schedule adjustment because nobody's played them any games. Where do

624
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 2: you think the betting market power rates Aston Villa out.

625
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 3: Of twenty next.

626
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 5: Yes, yeah, I would say right, probably behind Liverpool City, Arsenal.

627
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 1: First and are right or Chelsea maybe even Yeah.

628
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 2: They essentially have them in a four way tie with Newcastle, Villa,

629
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:06,719
Speaker 2: Brighton and United rest of season, with Chelsea just ahead,

630
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 2: Chelsea just ahead, Spurs just ahead, and then obviously the

631
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 2: Big three way ahead. So the market has Villa essentially

632
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 2: power rated to get one point five points per game

633
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 2: the rest of the season. They've already gotten two, and

634
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 2: their non penalty expected goal difference is better than all

635
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 2: of those teams in that bunch, and only marginally worse

636
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 2: than Chelsea's who's way ahead of them. So I think

637
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 2: the market is catching on to some Villa skepticism and

638
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 2: I don't really think there's any value in fading them

639
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 2: just as a result of that, especially at home. You know,

640
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 2: we've talked about road Villa, Like at home, I'm less interested.

641
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 2: So I lean with BJ as well, but no play

642
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 2: for me.

643
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 5: On to Wednesday City and Burnley. Manchester City is a

644
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 5: puny minus one thousand favorite Burnley sixteen to one, one, sixteen.

645
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 2: To onej Where do you have this? I love doing these,

646
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 2: Like how kind of get projections?

647
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 3: Where do you have Burnley.

648
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 4: Down the money line, Yeah, twenty five to one.

649
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 3: Well I'm only at twenty two to fifty, so we

650
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 3: might have to.

651
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 1: So there's so much value.

652
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 5: There's value to one, a lot of value on on

653
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 5: city here.

654
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 2: It's a good point though about how the books kind

655
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 2: of like cheat you on those big bad lines because

656
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 2: they know there's like underdog biased people are like.

657
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 3: Oh, sixteen to one one match like surely, but.

658
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 5: Really, yeah, I do think that's a relatively new phenomenon.

659
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 5: I mean Brentford was nineteen to one, right, so Brentford

660
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 5: was a much better team than.

661
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:33,479
Speaker 3: Shop around as always.

662
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, but yes, no, for sure, it's definitely been You've

663
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 2: seen the markets kind of change and yeah, you know

664
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 2: if you go to like Asian handicapped lines at some books,

665
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 2: like it's gotten kind of wild with you're laying like

666
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 2: one forty on one side and laying like one oh

667
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 2: five on the other.

668
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 4: Good it's good news is that three six five doesn't

669
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 4: do that.

670
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 3: To your They don't, but they're not in Pennsylvania.

671
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 2: Or New York yue have they get excited about that

672
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 2: Maybe coming to Pennsylvania, say.

673
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 4: Other books will juice you at a out of at

674
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 4: a range creation eighty but not through sixty five.

675
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:08,479
Speaker 5: True, I don't have anything here, yeah, pass, all right,

676
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 5: let's move on.

677
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 3: Draw eleven to one.

678
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 4: Yeah no, no.

679
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 1: I mean, if do you want to sell us on it?

680
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 2: You know, storylines, it is a better just from like

681
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 2: a pure number perspective.

682
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 3: I do think it's cheap, but.

683
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 4: I mean I have to draw.

684
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 2: I can't make a I'm not gonna sit here and

685
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 2: make like a soccer case for why Burnley is you.

686
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 5: Don't you don't want to talk about Vincent Company's system

687
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 5: being conducive to the draw here?

688
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,480
Speaker 1: It gets pet No. I guess if you're going to bet.

689
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 5: The draw, you might as well just bet like an

690
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 5: exact score three three or something.

691
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 1: Really go after it.

692
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 3: I mean, look, I'm just saying eleven to one.

693
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 2: I've seen worse bets, and I think it should be

694
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:44,800
Speaker 2: like eight sixty five.

695
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 1: We've all made bets.

696
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 4: I've got eight.

697
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 3: I mean, what are we doing?

698
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 1: We got look at this?

699
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 3: That that's like a that's a good solid edge, you know.

700
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 4: And there's a group of for the Weeds City drawn one.

701
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 3: All right, so are we betting it now?

702
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 4: Yeah?

703
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 3: Yep, all right, I'm gonna bet it one. I think

704
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 3: if you had zero.

705
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 2: Analysis on that, I think the market has Burnley rated eighteenth.

706
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 2: I agree the market has City rated first. I agree

707
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 2: there's no need any chance of winning this match or

708
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 2: being competitive. But sometimes the ball bounce is weird and

709
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 2: the first five minutes, well we'll think about it too, right,

710
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 2: because Burnley was eight to one at home in a

711
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 2: match week one and you guys, you know we're dead.

712
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 1: I mean we were.

713
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 5: We got caught up, We got caught up in the.

714
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 2: The pot idea, the idea that we didn't know it yet,

715
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 2: but that like that uh Dutch total football was coming

716
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 2: to the prem and and and the market hadn't cut

717
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 2: on yet and the Burnley was going to be although

718
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 2: bj was out on them after.

719
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:48,479
Speaker 1: Respect that I was.

720
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 4: And by the way, there is going to be Lester's

721
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 4: team back up and they're playing it exact. Seems to

722
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 4: be careful everybody.

723
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, but Lester actually has like the higher floor of town.

724
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 4: I know. Actually, we'll we'll talk more, uh more championship

725
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 4: as we get later on in the season, all right.

726
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 5: Tony Spurs are a minus one sixty three favorite at

727
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 5: home to Brentford four to one. Thomas Frank's Bees are

728
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 5: traveling as a decent underdog here and the Jaws plus

729
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:26,399
Speaker 5: three twenty. This is a you could set set your

730
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 5: clock to this one, Jesus, the.

731
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:31,280
Speaker 3: Biggest goalkeeping mismatch in the Premier League. That's scary.

732
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, but I mean if you getting to that point

733
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 5: with a four to one underdog, I think you're okay.

734
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 3: Yeah.

735
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 2: No, I mean, you know Brentford or some Tottenham like

736
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 2: bad at home against City, like completely uncompetitive, couldn't get

737
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 2: a shot laying a full goal.

738
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:49,800
Speaker 3: I'm not close to that. I'm like minus one thirty one.

739
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:55,240
Speaker 2: So happy to take uh Spurs. I have downgraded Brentford

740
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 2: a good bit because I do think the injuries matter,

741
00:34:57,760 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 2: but at a certain point, like they just run on

742
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 2: oddly bad and even with bad goalkeeping, they shouldn't have

743
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 2: run as bad as they've run. Like their attack has

744
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 2: been way underperforming. And guess who's back. The vibes were

745
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 2: so good Tony Tony. Anytime we hit last time, right,

746
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 2: it was plus one thirty. Maybe this time we try

747
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 2: to up the stakes, roll it over like Tony first two.

748
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 5: Plus plus two times against Tony against Tony's Tautenham.

749
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 1: Against Tony's Tottenham, Tottenham.

750
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 2: Still without Sonny, who's still gonna be at the Asian Cup.

751
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 2: Like you could just now see the scenario, right, like

752
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 2: we know how good Werner has been, and I talked

753
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:38,839
Speaker 2: about Werner on the f A Cup episode when I

754
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 2: was like, look like he's been productive for them, but

755
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 2: the midfield has been poor with Sar and Basooma out.

756
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 2: Madison's still kind of working his way back to full fitness.

757
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 2: And then you just see the scenario where it's like, oh,

758
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 2: we have Werner instead of Song taking the shots so

759
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 2: they don't go in, and then you know this game

760
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 2: has won one. So I like, I like the Bees

761
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 2: of course, and back again the Bees.

762
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 1: All right, Liverpool and Chelsea up next. This is another spot.

763
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 5: I think all of this will be in agreement on

764
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:10,240
Speaker 5: the underdog Liverpool minus won seventy five, Tony's pet team.

765
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:10,799
Speaker 1: Good god.

766
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 5: I mean, the guy just crying on the phone to

767
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 5: me the other day because Jurgen Klop made it all

768
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 5: about himself, call me well.

769
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 2: I was up watching now Medvedev at like five am,

770
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:24,279
Speaker 2: and usually I wake up to news, right because you know,

771
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 2: we're six hours Behire, five hours behind London and I

772
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 2: thought it was like a bit the clop was leaving,

773
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 2: and you know, look as a as a lifelong Liverpool fan,

774
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 2: it's it's.

775
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 3: Been an amazing run. I can't wait to see who's next.

776
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 2: I feel like chob Hi Alonso is going to take

777
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,280
Speaker 2: the job and cost us all money next year probably,

778
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 2: but I think he feels with doubt. I think he's

779
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 2: like minus one ten at one book to become the

780
00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 2: next manager. But that creates a very exciting dynamic down

781
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 2: the stretch here right like Clop's last run, doing it

782
00:36:57,760 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 2: for him and.

783
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 5: The guy just loves to make it if the guy

784
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 5: just loves to make it about himself, It's crazy, this guy. God,

785
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:07,840
Speaker 5: I can't wait for him to be out of the league.

786
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 3: How could you get how could you miss your how

787
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 3: could you not like Jurgen.

788
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 1: Klop Oh so easily.

789
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,600
Speaker 5: I can show you one still image of him and

790
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:21,920
Speaker 5: his charges holding hands, saluting the away and in a

791
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:25,800
Speaker 5: two till draw against west Brown, probably before you started watching,

792
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,479
Speaker 5: but right in the beginning of his tenure, they drew

793
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:31,399
Speaker 5: west Brown to too and he gathered his team and

794
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 5: you know, did like the whole hey hey thing holding hands.

795
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 1: The guy is as cringe.

796
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,800
Speaker 5: As cringe as they come. Culture builder, he's as cringe

797
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 5: as they come. Yeah, I could build the culture with

798
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 5: those kind of players. Give me, give me most sala,

799
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:47,959
Speaker 5: give me give me uh that that roster. I'll build

800
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 5: a culture with them. Come on, you know people think

801
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 5: people think he's like drawing blood from a stone. He's

802
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 5: he's got good players. It's very easy to coach.

803
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 3: He's always had great talent. But like he did it

804
00:37:58,000 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 3: in Germany before that, Like.

805
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, he coached great down great, great academy. Look at

806
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 1: those teams. Lewandowski. God, you know.

807
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 4: We're gonna see him next.

808
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 1: Michael, I hope, you know right enter Miami.

809
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 4: No, he's gonna coach.

810
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 1: He's going to coach the German nash Germany. Yeah, I

811
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 1: don't think.

812
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, all right, we'll talk about that on in twenty

813
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:23,520
Speaker 5: twenty five. Anyways, we like Chelsea here, I think. But

814
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 5: I honestly, Anthony, you did make one good point there.

815
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:28,879
Speaker 5: It's gonna be fascinating down the stretch. And I think

816
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 5: that this is going to seep into the market.

817
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:33,280
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I think it's.

818
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is this is a.

819
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 2: That's would have preferred if they had rotated. I thought

820
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 2: they were going to rotate and then and then the

821
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 2: Clough announcement happens and I'm like, well, I don't think

822
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:47,319
Speaker 2: we're getting a rotated Liverpool. They put everybody in and uh,

823
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 2: Norwich team total cash but the plus two and a

824
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:51,840
Speaker 2: half man devastating anyway.

825
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, I like Chelsea here though, I just think, yeah.

826
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:57,840
Speaker 2: Same song and dance with them, right, Like they play

827
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 2: up because they play a style that's conduced to slowing

828
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:04,240
Speaker 2: down and getting space on the break against these top teams.

829
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:06,320
Speaker 2: I think like, I'll bet Chelsea plus one in a

830
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 2: quarter when they go to City. I'll bet Chelsea plus

831
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 2: one at Arsenal. I'll bet Chelsea plus one at Liverpool.

832
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:13,520
Speaker 2: But am I gonna lay Chelsea minus one against like

833
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:14,879
Speaker 2: Fols ever?

834
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:15,440
Speaker 1: Yep?

835
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's just kind of what I'm at with this team.

836
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 2: But I you know, Palmer's been really good and we

837
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 2: talked about him just a couple of days ago, so

838
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 2: I'm not going to repeat myself, but I do think

839
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 2: they're kind of short a striker right now with dot Jackson,

840
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 2: like they don't have like a true guy.

841
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:33,320
Speaker 1: Doesn't sound like Chelsea.

842
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 2: But but when you're playing on the break, it's less relevant,

843
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 2: having like a true target man or like a true nine.

844
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 2: I think they can kind of get away with like

845
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 2: this collection of wingers and tens. So yeah, Blues for me,

846
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 2: I project Liverpool closhit of minus one thirty as well.

847
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:49,760
Speaker 2: Same thing with me and Tottenham and Brentford and Liverpool

848
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 2: and Chelsea, Like you know, these games are. I just

849
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 2: think the favorite is a little bit overvalued at home

850
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 2: and like I get why again big goalkeeping ouge two

851
00:39:57,560 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 2: but like I'm gonna ride with the dog.

852
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's a thing with Chelsea as I

853
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 4: Obviously the underlying numbers are still really really good, but

854
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 4: kind of what I've said forever is they're just such

855
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 4: a good flawed because of how they utilize their players.

856
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:16,880
Speaker 4: They're starting to get a little bit better. They're starting

857
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:19,400
Speaker 4: to utilize end Zo in his correct role as a

858
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:25,280
Speaker 4: deep line playmaker. They're starting to get guys in better positions.

859
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:26,920
Speaker 4: Obviously Palmer has been a few of them in that

860
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 4: ten role actually distributing, like Anthony mentioned in the last podcast,

861
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:33,480
Speaker 4: So there are things and like Anthony mentioned that Chelsea

862
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:35,200
Speaker 4: can definitely play in the break here, and they're also

863
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 4: a really really good counter pressing team. So you know,

864
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 4: that's how they've snatched two goals out of both City

865
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:43,880
Speaker 4: and Arsenal as well. So they can definitely do that

866
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:47,440
Speaker 4: here against Liverpool in a match that might turn very

867
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 4: end to end. We'll see Liverpool's getting some guys healthy,

868
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 4: but again still normal stylid here who's still very very

869
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 4: important to what Liverpool wants to do offensively Nubias, Jota

870
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 4: and ds is a fine in front three, but Salah

871
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:06,720
Speaker 4: obviously takes them to a new level. And also Wataro

872
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 4: Endo is still not there. Who's their best bass stopping

873
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:12,240
Speaker 4: in the midfielders. So yeah, I have Liverpool at mine twentyeen,

874
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 4: so Chelsea plus one for there.

875
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:16,360
Speaker 2: It's kind of like what we said, right like Joe Chelsea.

876
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:18,919
Speaker 2: When they played Everton they didn't score. When they played

877
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 2: Brentford they didn't score. When they played Bournemouth they didn't score.

878
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 3: This was Bourne myth.

879
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:25,560
Speaker 2: When they were a little bit more passive, they played Forest,

880
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:27,920
Speaker 2: they didn't score. They played Fullham they scored once on

881
00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:31,920
Speaker 2: a pen. When they've played Tottenham they got four. City

882
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 2: they scored four, Brighton they scored three, Arsenal two. Liverpool

883
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:39,319
Speaker 2: the first meeting one, but there was almost two XG. So, uh,

884
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:42,879
Speaker 2: you know when they play these possession dominant teams, they're

885
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:43,359
Speaker 2: much better.

886
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 5: Okay, so those three matches City Spurs in Liverpool, those

887
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 5: are Wednesday Thursday. Now a nice ten match slate in

888
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:51,240
Speaker 5: the midweek.

889
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 1: You love it.

890
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 5: West Ham and Bourne with the Hammers are plus one

891
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:57,279
Speaker 5: forty at home. Bourne with is a slight underdog plus

892
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 5: one seventy five. The draw here plus two seventy five.

893
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 5: Safe to say the secret is out on Bournemouth, or

894
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:07,919
Speaker 5: was out on Bournemouth. They dropped too in a row

895
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:11,360
Speaker 5: to buy an aggregate of seven to one against some

896
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 5: quality opposition.

897
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 1: Is a secret back in on Bournemouth. Is it time

898
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:18,239
Speaker 1: to get back in on them?

899
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 5: Doesn't look like it to me. Maybe if they lose here, Anthony,

900
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:25,440
Speaker 5: we could start having that conversation again. But this looks

901
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 5: like my least favorite match on the board. Yeah.

902
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 2: It's really funny because I have a Bournemouth to finish

903
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:34,000
Speaker 2: above west Ham ticket from the beginning of the season

904
00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:37,439
Speaker 2: and it was like three to one and right now,

905
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 2: I mean, the market thinks Bournemouth is better than west Ham,

906
00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 2: but the table I'm not gonna get.

907
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 4: They're not going to make up that crunch, So.

908
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 2: The book's not going to pay me out because the

909
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:47,800
Speaker 2: market says they're better because they're barely a favor a

910
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 2: road dog. Like realistically the matchup, Bournemouth wants to just

911
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:55,399
Speaker 2: boot it long now they don't.

912
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 3: I don't really like play out from the back as much.

913
00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 3: They do, like a.

914
00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:59,840
Speaker 2: Couple quick passes and then like okay, let's play it

915
00:42:59,840 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 2: long and then have somebody run off Slankey, which like

916
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 2: has worked. They've definitely gotten better, but like, okay, Bournemouth

917
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 2: is power rate is the tenth best team in the

918
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:10,880
Speaker 2: prem There's not really a way they're better than that.

919
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 2: So there's no way that you can make this anything

920
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 2: less than what it is. And west Ham like we

921
00:43:16,760 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 2: kind of know what they are given their current situation

922
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 2: with their injuries slash absences, Like this attack is just

923
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:28,200
Speaker 2: kind of like can Jared Bowen cook and can they

924
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:29,320
Speaker 2: win on some set pieces?

925
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 3: They're not gonna have Cutis.

926
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 2: They're not going to have packa tes still, so actually,

927
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 2: will they get Cutis back.

928
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 4: Now it probably will. Honestly got knocked out right, that's terrible.

929
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:48,880
Speaker 3: Tragic for comic. We're gonna get another a comment anyway.

930
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just don't really think there's any way you

931
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:56,120
Speaker 2: can bet Bournemouth here and say like they're upwardly like

932
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:59,840
Speaker 2: getting a good number here like the beginning of this

933
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:01,279
Speaker 2: see and they closed to pick them at home.

934
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:03,759
Speaker 3: Now they're closing to pick him on the road. So yeah,

935
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 3: I'm gonna pass here. This is just like not a

936
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:06,839
Speaker 3: spot or a number I.

937
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:09,399
Speaker 2: Love, even though I'd love to bet Bournemouth and say

938
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 2: go Cherry's like I hate this West Sam team.

939
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 5: All right. Let's wrap up the Premier League with Wolves

940
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:22,080
Speaker 5: and United, a rematch from a absolute debacle of a

941
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:25,480
Speaker 5: match on Monday Night Football Week one where Wolves were

942
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:29,400
Speaker 5: clearly the better team, had everything go against them in

943
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 5: a in a game.

944
00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 1: I'm never gonna forget that one.

945
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 5: It reminded me of that Brighton Manchester United game from

946
00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 5: a couple of seasons ago where Brighton ended up getting

947
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:40,720
Speaker 5: the win and I just I think.

948
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 2: We're call out the match when they got the penalty

949
00:44:42,520 --> 00:44:45,040
Speaker 2: awarded after the final whistle to win the match because

950
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:46,359
Speaker 2: I had Brighten that match.

951
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:47,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was tough.

952
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:50,879
Speaker 2: Never seen that. That will never I'm gonna put that there.

953
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:53,200
Speaker 2: That will never happen to cost me bet ever again.

954
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:53,759
Speaker 3: As long as I.

955
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:56,719
Speaker 2: Bet soccer where the final whistle will blow and then

956
00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 2: Varr will come in and say, actually, there was a

957
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:01,759
Speaker 2: penalty two minutes ago, penanted Man United three to two.

958
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 1: Final unbelievable.

959
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 5: Wolves are a plus one seventy five home underdog United

960
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:11,560
Speaker 5: plus one forty five and a draw. Here I would

961
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 5: pay out plus to sixty. Wolves have been in a

962
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 5: decent nicck of form with three wins and a draw

963
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:25,120
Speaker 5: in their last four. They're safe mid table team. I

964
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:27,920
Speaker 5: think a lot of people, including us, were wrong with

965
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 5: where this team would be dancing. We thought they'd be

966
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:34,399
Speaker 5: dancing the relegation great dance. They are dancing the we're

967
00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:36,680
Speaker 5: going to be on the beach by March first dance.

968
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 1: Not out of the question here.

969
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:44,320
Speaker 5: I mean they win, they draw level with United up points.

970
00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:48,319
Speaker 5: So these odds might not look you know, someone might

971
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:51,359
Speaker 5: you know, rub through that like cartoonist rub the eyes thing.

972
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 5: But when you consider where these two teams are in

973
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:56,280
Speaker 5: the standings and how they play it and the underlying metrics,

974
00:45:57,200 --> 00:45:57,879
Speaker 5: they're really not.

975
00:45:57,920 --> 00:45:58,760
Speaker 1: That far off.

976
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:01,920
Speaker 5: So a bet on Wolves here, even as just like

977
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 5: a slight home dog against United, is not crazy bj

978
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 5: I don't think at least.

979
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 4: But I agree that I can't do it.

980
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 1: It's too short.

981
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 4: I just it was unfortunate because I really did want

982
00:46:13,520 --> 00:46:18,840
Speaker 4: to bet Wolves here in this spot because and I

983
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 4: mean United didn't even look very good in the FA

984
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:23,960
Speaker 4: Cup either. On Sunday as well.

985
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:26,240
Speaker 3: Anthony Anthony had a big moment his first goal.

986
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:30,160
Speaker 4: First goal this season against Newport, who I believe is

987
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:34,239
Speaker 4: in League two. Don't quote me, fourth division, So good

988
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 4: for him. First goal against the season comes against the

989
00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 4: fourth division team. You know. Even United's match against Tottenham,

990
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:45,360
Speaker 4: they got kind of dominated. I don't know, I know

991
00:46:45,400 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 4: it didn't bear out in the final xtget I had

992
00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:50,359
Speaker 4: a couple of good like transition moments, but outside of that,

993
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:52,759
Speaker 4: Tottenham just flipped the field on them and just kind

994
00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 4: of lived inside their final third. And I know they

995
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:57,479
Speaker 4: didn't create a lot of big scoring chances or anything

996
00:46:57,560 --> 00:47:02,240
Speaker 4: like that. But uh, you know, if here's the problem

997
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 4: is that, you know, if you're if you're in the

998
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:07,840
Speaker 4: online tactics community, United's press or whatever, you know, whatever

999
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:10,359
Speaker 4: structure they want to use has been if you can

1000
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:13,479
Speaker 4: even pick yeah, picked apart with a fine tooth comb,

1001
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 4: and basically what the the tactical communities came down to

1002
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:19,399
Speaker 4: is that United has no structure where they can press

1003
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:22,640
Speaker 4: the opponents effectively because of the personnel that they've assembled

1004
00:47:22,719 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 4: right now. So they're just stuck in this Do we

1005
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:30,520
Speaker 4: press high because we don't have good ball winning midfielders

1006
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:33,640
Speaker 4: that can cover. We don't have good wingbacks that can

1007
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 4: aid in the press either. Even Rashford's not very good,

1008
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:39,400
Speaker 4: you know, in terms of his work rate out of possession. Like,

1009
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:41,920
Speaker 4: there's just so many things that are disjointed wrong with

1010
00:47:42,480 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 4: Manchester United that Wolves can really pick them apart. So

1011
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:49,200
Speaker 4: if I had to bet anything, I bet Wolves here.

1012
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:51,000
Speaker 4: They've been really good at home. But here's the other

1013
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:53,840
Speaker 4: thing with the Wolves is that they punch up so well,

1014
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 4: but you just look they're for all underlying metrics, like

1015
00:47:56,840 --> 00:48:00,920
Speaker 4: they're a below average team and like almost everything, despite

1016
00:48:01,000 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 4: how good they've been, you know, in terms of their

1017
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:07,440
Speaker 4: you know, good Gary on Nails set them up tactically, again,

1018
00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 4: they're still a what a minus six expected ole differential, Like,

1019
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 4: they're still not that creative a team. So they've been

1020
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 4: obviously better home than on the road. But so I

1021
00:48:17,040 --> 00:48:19,240
Speaker 4: have been anything, it'd be Wolves. But I am passing

1022
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:20,560
Speaker 4: because I have the numbers spout.

1023
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 2: Right, Wolves for me betting it now? I know haangey

1024
00:48:25,239 --> 00:48:27,919
Speaker 2: chan is going to be out, but you talked about

1025
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 2: it right, Like how much worse has Wolves actually been

1026
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 2: if you take out penalties? Wolves this season have been

1027
00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:40,920
Speaker 2: like a tick worse the Men United across the whole league,

1028
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:43,399
Speaker 2: and now they're like a road dog a home dog.

1029
00:48:43,719 --> 00:48:44,360
Speaker 3: Don't agree.

1030
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:47,279
Speaker 2: I really think that Wolves would be favored here, So

1031
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:51,239
Speaker 2: give me Wolves at home. Like I said, you know

1032
00:48:51,280 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 2: who do you think, by the way, still the leading

1033
00:48:53,200 --> 00:48:54,879
Speaker 2: goal scorer at Many I aid this season.

1034
00:48:55,480 --> 00:48:58,240
Speaker 3: Scottie Scott Scott mcdomminy five goals.

1035
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:00,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then you've got this whole so you we

1036
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:02,319
Speaker 2: got a lot of weird shit happening right now, because okay,

1037
00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 2: first of all, they played like garbage today against Newport County.

1038
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:08,840
Speaker 2: I don't care who the manager is. That is like

1039
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:11,319
Speaker 2: next level alarming. I mean, this is a team of

1040
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:13,640
Speaker 2: Men United who finished top four last year and like

1041
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:15,400
Speaker 2: we all agreed, like, okay, yeah, they ran good to

1042
00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 2: get there, but this is still a team that finished

1043
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 2: third in the prem and now they can't even out

1044
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:23,960
Speaker 2: class a fourth division team when they played.

1045
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:27,280
Speaker 3: Their best eleven minus Rashford, which.

1046
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:29,759
Speaker 2: Is where it gets weird, right, Evans was quote unquote hill,

1047
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:32,560
Speaker 2: Rashford was quote unquote ill. And then you have the

1048
00:49:32,560 --> 00:49:34,960
Speaker 2: report coming out that there's disciplinary issues with Rashford, that

1049
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 2: he was like basically bench for the game.

1050
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:38,840
Speaker 4: And look he was he was in a club the

1051
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:41,760
Speaker 4: night before, like the on Thursday night exactly.

1052
00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:43,040
Speaker 3: Apparently here's the thing.

1053
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:48,759
Speaker 2: Ten Hog has already banished Sancho to Dormund and I

1054
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 2: watched doormand today Sancho looks great now it's the Bundesliga.

1055
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:57,319
Speaker 3: But that guy couldn't have played for you, right, you know,

1056
00:49:57,360 --> 00:49:58,160
Speaker 3: so you're abandoning him.

1057
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:01,439
Speaker 2: Now you got Rashford, who I'd argue is their next

1058
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:04,680
Speaker 2: best attacker besides Bruno, and now you got him in problems.

1059
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:07,080
Speaker 2: And like I said, Evans, you know, he's been playing

1060
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:11,239
Speaker 2: unbelievably bad for the last few weeks and he gets

1061
00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:14,600
Speaker 2: sick quote unquote maybe he got benched, and they're just

1062
00:50:14,640 --> 00:50:15,880
Speaker 2: kind of like making this up as they go.

1063
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 3: This whole situation is.

1064
00:50:20,520 --> 00:50:24,000
Speaker 2: Just like on the brink, and I think that there's

1065
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:25,719
Speaker 2: a lot of downside risk for them, especially when they're

1066
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 2: on the road.

1067
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:31,720
Speaker 4: See the picture of Casimiro today, I did not looks

1068
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:34,279
Speaker 4: like he's put on a few lds.

1069
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:36,920
Speaker 1: Yeah he's doing We're not here. We're not here to

1070
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:40,719
Speaker 1: do that. We all go through we all go through it.

1071
00:50:41,239 --> 00:50:43,200
Speaker 4: Hand up. I've gone through many of those spaces.

1072
00:50:43,719 --> 00:50:45,960
Speaker 3: Are we are? I'm just saying soccer players though it

1073
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:46,840
Speaker 3: should be noted.

1074
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 4: But we're not professional soccer players. I sit on my

1075
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:49,800
Speaker 4: couch for a living. Okay.

1076
00:50:50,719 --> 00:50:52,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, United this year away from home by the way,

1077
00:50:52,440 --> 00:50:54,400
Speaker 2: one point seven expect the goal is allowed for ninety

1078
00:50:54,719 --> 00:50:57,640
Speaker 2: and we talked about it. They taught him had that

1079
00:50:57,680 --> 00:51:00,319
Speaker 2: one great defensive showing and I was like, wow, maybe

1080
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:03,360
Speaker 2: it's rough Marrow and Van der venderback point eight XGD United.

1081
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:08,000
Speaker 2: You know, no, In fact, it was just that United

1082
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:08,799
Speaker 2: is really poor.

1083
00:51:09,480 --> 00:51:11,680
Speaker 1: Okay, that's the Premier League La Liga.

1084
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:13,879
Speaker 4: Can I just say one thing about leg I don't

1085
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:16,480
Speaker 4: have anything because there's four matches to make up, matches

1086
00:51:16,520 --> 00:51:19,719
Speaker 4: from the teams that were at the Super Cup. Let's

1087
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:23,880
Speaker 4: just talk Barcelona for just one quick second. Yeah, is

1088
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 4: now where I say the time it's time to buy

1089
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:26,919
Speaker 4: Barcelona At fourteen to one.

1090
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:28,720
Speaker 1: I love Barcelona, but to win the league.

1091
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:34,560
Speaker 4: Yes, they're ten points back. We have seventeen matches left

1092
00:51:34,560 --> 00:51:34,960
Speaker 4: to play.

1093
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 3: How good is Barcelona, I don't.

1094
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:42,279
Speaker 4: Know quite Frankly, that's a great question. They're clearly much

1095
00:51:42,280 --> 00:51:45,240
Speaker 4: worse defensively this season. They're not very good defending crosses,

1096
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:48,120
Speaker 4: they're bad in transition defense. But that feels like a

1097
00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 4: lot of a ton of They create a ton of

1098
00:51:50,239 --> 00:51:53,319
Speaker 4: chances every single match and they just can't put anything back.

1099
00:51:53,520 --> 00:51:56,520
Speaker 4: That is what it's come down to. But I mean,

1100
00:51:56,719 --> 00:52:00,680
Speaker 4: Real Madrid another late winner, congratulations, he gets lost. Just

1101
00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:05,120
Speaker 4: it happens every single weekend. Maybe they just run good

1102
00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:07,800
Speaker 4: the entire season and just have every single late winner,

1103
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 4: or maybe the underlying numbers catch up with them. Maybe

1104
00:52:12,680 --> 00:52:16,600
Speaker 4: Jarona falls off, never gonna have. Then that opens the

1105
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:20,359
Speaker 4: door for a potential run here from Barcelona. And hey,

1106
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:22,520
Speaker 4: it already said like I I read some of the

1107
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:25,080
Speaker 4: quotes after, like Franka Diong was like, hey, it's our fault,

1108
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:27,239
Speaker 4: it's not Shabby's fault, like we were the ones who

1109
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 4: made the mistakes out there, like he is not the

1110
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:31,320
Speaker 4: problem or whatever, like we need to play better and everything.

1111
00:52:31,680 --> 00:52:34,400
Speaker 4: So there could be a galvanization behind this manager, you know,

1112
00:52:34,520 --> 00:52:36,600
Speaker 4: for one last ride, maybe try to get him to stay.

1113
00:52:38,120 --> 00:52:40,279
Speaker 4: But yeah, it looks like Shabby's out at the end

1114
00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:43,160
Speaker 4: of the season, so I mean they're fourteen to one.

1115
00:52:43,160 --> 00:52:44,759
Speaker 4: I know it's a ten point gap. They have a

1116
00:52:45,080 --> 00:52:48,200
Speaker 4: very easy schedule coming up where they can really make

1117
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:52,480
Speaker 4: up some grants, so maybe they prioritize the Champions League.

1118
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:57,799
Speaker 4: But Bertina's relatively healthy and still putting up like very

1119
00:52:57,920 --> 00:53:00,680
Speaker 4: very clearly the best underlying numbers in Spain by a

1120
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:05,280
Speaker 4: pretty wide margin fourteen to one. Kind of bilo of Barcelona, Michael.

1121
00:53:06,520 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 3: Here's some data on this.

1122
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:11,400
Speaker 2: So since since December started, Barcelona is plus one point

1123
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:13,960
Speaker 2: four to two extra difference per ninety. They have an

1124
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:17,480
Speaker 2: even expected goal difference, and that's because they are conceding

1125
00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:20,440
Speaker 2: about a half goal extra over Now, there were some

1126
00:53:20,480 --> 00:53:22,840
Speaker 2: aggression looming from last season, like they ran like gods

1127
00:53:22,920 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 2: last year, but attack they're about a zero point seven

1128
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:30,399
Speaker 2: goals behind their numbers per ninety, so.

1129
00:53:30,360 --> 00:53:31,360
Speaker 3: It's kind of remarkable.

1130
00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:33,920
Speaker 2: But the problem is that Real Madrid is also has

1131
00:53:33,960 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 2: improved as the season has gone on. They've actually deserved

1132
00:53:36,640 --> 00:53:38,879
Speaker 2: some They've gotten lucky with how the games have gone,

1133
00:53:39,160 --> 00:53:42,359
Speaker 2: no doubt, but they've actually improved their underline performances as well.

1134
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 3: So I'm not going to stop you from fourteen to one.

1135
00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:45,959
Speaker 3: I can't. I can't.

1136
00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 2: But the team I'm buying it's actually not Celta Vigo,

1137
00:53:49,040 --> 00:53:51,520
Speaker 2: And that sounds crazy because we talked about them constantly.

1138
00:53:51,600 --> 00:53:53,960
Speaker 2: They've they've steadily like kind of gotten worse, and so

1139
00:53:54,000 --> 00:53:55,279
Speaker 2: I need to stop betting them. But I have a

1140
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:58,800
Speaker 2: disease and I can't. Is Ryo, Bacono and Biakono is

1141
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:03,000
Speaker 2: actually playing better. They've run bad, but they have really

1142
00:54:03,040 --> 00:54:05,040
Speaker 2: solid underline numbers that are trending upward, and I think

1143
00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:08,799
Speaker 2: the markets shorter on them. But with that being said,

1144
00:54:09,200 --> 00:54:11,000
Speaker 2: nothing for me and mean all right.

1145
00:54:11,440 --> 00:54:16,399
Speaker 5: PJ floor is yours quick minute on the African Cup

1146
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:20,440
Speaker 5: of Nations, which is coming to the point the end

1147
00:54:20,680 --> 00:54:21,280
Speaker 5: of the toilet.

1148
00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:24,520
Speaker 4: We are currently in the round of sixteen right now,

1149
00:54:25,080 --> 00:54:27,120
Speaker 4: finishing it up on Monday and Tuesday. Then we'll get

1150
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:30,319
Speaker 4: to Friday, we'll start the quarter finals. If you want

1151
00:54:30,400 --> 00:54:33,920
Speaker 4: some picks for Monday and Tuesday. If you're listening to

1152
00:54:33,920 --> 00:54:37,520
Speaker 4: this early Monday morning, Cape Verde and Murray Tana are

1153
00:54:37,560 --> 00:54:40,680
Speaker 4: kicking off at New Eastern Time love over two goals.

1154
00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:43,600
Speaker 4: They're at even around even money. Both teams over the

1155
00:54:43,680 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 4: last two years in Africa, their matches are averaging closest

1156
00:54:46,520 --> 00:54:49,480
Speaker 4: two and a half expected goals and a lot of

1157
00:54:49,480 --> 00:54:51,399
Speaker 4: goals have been scored with this app Coup Nations, much

1158
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:54,000
Speaker 4: more than we expected to post the last tournaments. And

1159
00:54:54,040 --> 00:54:56,800
Speaker 4: they're like Malli and again if you want to follow

1160
00:54:56,880 --> 00:54:59,480
Speaker 4: me along with the app Coup of Nations given out

1161
00:54:59,480 --> 00:55:02,400
Speaker 4: picks every day on my Twitter right up so unexpected

1162
00:55:02,400 --> 00:55:05,160
Speaker 4: goals and join the action or discord. We have a

1163
00:55:05,200 --> 00:55:07,400
Speaker 4: lot of fun in there, betting a lot off con stuff,

1164
00:55:07,440 --> 00:55:09,799
Speaker 4: so that's where we want to fall on. That's where

1165
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:10,399
Speaker 4: you can find it.

1166
00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:14,320
Speaker 3: Absolute drama with Guinea getting the late winner. It was

1167
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:15,879
Speaker 3: amazing last kick of the game.

1168
00:55:16,239 --> 00:55:19,279
Speaker 4: Guiney gets the late winner. We all had Guinea and

1169
00:55:19,480 --> 00:55:21,080
Speaker 4: we all have a fifty to one ticket on them.

1170
00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:25,680
Speaker 4: So Dr Congo beat Morocco on penalties. They're gonna be

1171
00:55:25,719 --> 00:55:27,360
Speaker 4: gas going in this next match. We can get a

1172
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:31,200
Speaker 4: fifty to one ticket into the Semis. Yeah, and we

1173
00:55:31,280 --> 00:55:34,480
Speaker 4: also have Nigerian Mollie as well, so it'll be It's

1174
00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:36,080
Speaker 4: been fun so far. Let's hope. Let's hope we can

1175
00:55:36,080 --> 00:55:36,840
Speaker 4: finish it out strong.

1176
00:55:37,520 --> 00:55:42,360
Speaker 5: All right, underdogs this parlay, it's gonna come out to

1177
00:55:42,840 --> 00:55:47,279
Speaker 5: seventy eight to one who wants to take Everton, I'm

1178
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:48,520
Speaker 5: gonna say them for the end of the show, is

1179
00:55:48,520 --> 00:55:50,320
Speaker 5: that you bja you want to take Averty, go right ahead.

1180
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:52,600
Speaker 4: I'm always first raised my hand with Everson. Love everything

1181
00:55:52,600 --> 00:55:55,880
Speaker 4: in the spot. A team that's amazing out of possession,

1182
00:55:56,480 --> 00:55:58,120
Speaker 4: a team that can play two different styles. Cause a

1183
00:55:58,120 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 4: lot of problems with Fulham if they want to try

1184
00:55:59,719 --> 00:56:01,920
Speaker 4: to you can build out the back, or if they

1185
00:56:01,920 --> 00:56:04,120
Speaker 4: want to make this transition game. Everton's still allowed the

1186
00:56:04,120 --> 00:56:06,400
Speaker 4: fewest pick scoring chances in the Premier League and Everton's

1187
00:56:06,480 --> 00:56:10,480
Speaker 4: got a huge advantage on set pieces. So topies for.

1188
00:56:10,480 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 5: Me, I'll go with Chelsea plus four twenty five at

1189
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:19,880
Speaker 5: Fortress and Field, where Anthony has famously claimed nobody has

1190
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:23,160
Speaker 5: ever won, so maybe Chelsea will become the first first

1191
00:56:23,200 --> 00:56:26,600
Speaker 5: to ever do it. I think it's pretty simple here

1192
00:56:26,600 --> 00:56:29,239
Speaker 5: that this number is inflated on on Liverpool there top

1193
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:32,640
Speaker 5: of the table. Jurgen Klopp made that shock announcement there's

1194
00:56:32,680 --> 00:56:35,799
Speaker 5: going to be you know, you think the Queen died

1195
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:38,000
Speaker 5: again or something. With the ceremonies that are going to

1196
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:38,680
Speaker 5: be taking place.

1197
00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:41,239
Speaker 3: Some of Liverpool would say that this is worse than

1198
00:56:41,280 --> 00:56:42,080
Speaker 3: the Queen dis Yeah.

1199
00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:44,120
Speaker 1: I have a lot of people in Liverpool. Everybody Liverpool

1200
00:56:44,120 --> 00:56:44,520
Speaker 1: would say that.

1201
00:56:45,719 --> 00:56:49,440
Speaker 5: The fans, yeah, this is uh yeah, this is just

1202
00:56:49,480 --> 00:56:52,520
Speaker 5: a pretty simple numbers, way too wide on a on

1203
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:55,200
Speaker 5: a really good team that punches up pretty well and

1204
00:56:55,320 --> 00:56:59,520
Speaker 5: plays a style conducive to stealing three points out of

1205
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:03,960
Speaker 5: Fortress and Field, spoiling a night out on Wednesday for

1206
00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:05,839
Speaker 5: a lot of Scousers.

1207
00:57:06,200 --> 00:57:07,640
Speaker 1: Anthony, what do you got?

1208
00:57:08,080 --> 00:57:09,400
Speaker 3: I was kind of hoping that I would get to

1209
00:57:09,400 --> 00:57:10,480
Speaker 3: do the Chelsea thing, but you.

1210
00:57:10,440 --> 00:57:12,239
Speaker 1: Know I was gonna let you have that that. You

1211
00:57:12,280 --> 00:57:13,879
Speaker 1: can't have your cake and eat it too. You can't.

1212
00:57:13,920 --> 00:57:16,080
Speaker 1: You can't call me crying at five.

1213
00:57:15,920 --> 00:57:18,360
Speaker 5: Am watching Australian open about ur and clop leaving and

1214
00:57:18,360 --> 00:57:21,720
Speaker 5: then get to bet against him in the Underdose.

1215
00:57:22,640 --> 00:57:26,600
Speaker 2: Second favorite team, Yep, Brent, I would never fade the Bees.

1216
00:57:26,640 --> 00:57:30,240
Speaker 2: I'm going to be Bedford at four to one.

1217
00:57:31,000 --> 00:57:35,840
Speaker 3: You know this. This team has had just an ungodly run.

1218
00:57:36,400 --> 00:57:38,720
Speaker 2: But I talk about those market derive power ratings, and

1219
00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:41,120
Speaker 2: the market has them as the sixteenth best team in

1220
00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:44,120
Speaker 2: the prem with only Forest and the three obvious relegation

1221
00:57:44,200 --> 00:57:46,480
Speaker 2: teams below them in terms of expected points for the

1222
00:57:46,520 --> 00:57:51,120
Speaker 2: rest of the season. They have Tottenham fourth. I'm sorry,

1223
00:57:51,200 --> 00:57:53,560
Speaker 2: I disagree on both. I think Tottenham are overvalued. I

1224
00:57:53,560 --> 00:57:57,000
Speaker 2: think Brentford are undervalued. I think these teams are closer

1225
00:57:57,040 --> 00:58:00,960
Speaker 2: to like sixth and eleventh, twelfth and does as a result,

1226
00:58:01,080 --> 00:58:03,560
Speaker 2: Like I know there's a huge goalkeeping edge for Spurs,

1227
00:58:03,880 --> 00:58:06,240
Speaker 2: but without Son you're introducing a good amount of variance.

1228
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:08,840
Speaker 2: With Tony back, we just don't know, uh, you know

1229
00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:11,000
Speaker 2: what this Brnford attack can be right now, But I

1230
00:58:11,000 --> 00:58:12,959
Speaker 2: think the first match against four has kind of showed

1231
00:58:13,000 --> 00:58:15,640
Speaker 2: you that, Like they're capable of just being so much

1232
00:58:15,640 --> 00:58:18,120
Speaker 2: better because of what he adds on the break and

1233
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:20,000
Speaker 2: so against Tottenam team that's going to give so many

1234
00:58:20,120 --> 00:58:22,600
Speaker 2: chances away on the break, I think the Bees are

1235
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:25,480
Speaker 2: live to steal this one at four to one.

1236
00:58:25,560 --> 00:58:29,640
Speaker 5: Okay, Yeah, like I said, uh, Brentford Everdon and Chelsea

1237
00:58:29,680 --> 00:58:33,000
Speaker 5: pays out seventy eight to one. Nice little midweek ticket

1238
00:58:33,400 --> 00:58:35,880
Speaker 5: for you guys as we all count down to days

1239
00:58:35,920 --> 00:58:38,800
Speaker 5: to the first bounce of the Australian Football League season

1240
00:58:38,920 --> 00:58:42,640
Speaker 5: coming up in mid March. Best bets now for the

1241
00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:44,760
Speaker 5: midweek action of the Premier League BJ.

1242
00:58:45,240 --> 00:58:48,880
Speaker 4: What do you got Brighton Lowtontown over three goals plus

1243
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:51,400
Speaker 4: one oh five. The reality in this match is it's

1244
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:54,440
Speaker 4: going to be there in game state Leatontown is not

1245
00:58:54,520 --> 00:58:59,439
Speaker 4: a good seat to keep Brighton bounce with their build

1246
00:58:59,480 --> 00:59:02,760
Speaker 4: ups style, Loutontown's been the worst defensive team since the

1247
00:59:02,800 --> 00:59:05,680
Speaker 4: beginning of October. Last twelve million matches, they've con seed

1248
00:59:05,800 --> 00:59:08,880
Speaker 4: thirteen point excuse me, thirty two point five expected goals,

1249
00:59:09,120 --> 00:59:11,680
Speaker 4: twenty big scoring chances, and I've only held one or

1250
00:59:11,680 --> 00:59:14,480
Speaker 4: excuse me two opponents under one and a half expected goals.

1251
00:59:14,840 --> 00:59:16,480
Speaker 4: The biggest problem for them is, you know, if they

1252
00:59:16,520 --> 00:59:19,000
Speaker 4: fall behind, they're conceding close to two point two expected

1253
00:59:19,000 --> 00:59:21,960
Speaker 4: goals per ninety minutes, so once that first goal goes

1254
00:59:22,000 --> 00:59:24,760
Speaker 4: in this match can derive into complete chaos. Zorbie has

1255
00:59:24,760 --> 00:59:26,800
Speaker 4: been playing a little bit more aggressive. Brighton wants to

1256
00:59:26,800 --> 00:59:29,120
Speaker 4: control the center parts of the pitch, which does leave

1257
00:59:29,120 --> 00:59:31,280
Speaker 4: space out wide, which is where Loutontown wants to get

1258
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:33,640
Speaker 4: the ball. They've attempted the most crosses of anybody in

1259
00:59:33,640 --> 00:59:36,080
Speaker 4: the Premier League, which is kind of crazy considering how

1260
00:59:36,120 --> 00:59:39,200
Speaker 4: little of the ball they actually have, but they will

1261
00:59:39,240 --> 00:59:41,400
Speaker 4: have space out wide to actually create chances to be acrosses,

1262
00:59:41,440 --> 00:59:44,280
Speaker 4: so not a bad matchup for Loutontown offensively either so

1263
00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:46,640
Speaker 4: projected three point seven goals, so I like over three

1264
00:59:46,640 --> 00:59:47,520
Speaker 4: at plus one o five.

1265
00:59:48,000 --> 00:59:52,760
Speaker 5: I'll take my topees Everdent plus two hundred at Craven

1266
00:59:52,800 --> 00:59:55,600
Speaker 5: Cottage taking on Fulham. We've talked about this about this

1267
00:59:55,640 --> 00:59:57,720
Speaker 5: one a lot, so I can just pass it over

1268
00:59:57,880 --> 00:59:58,600
Speaker 5: to you, Anthony.

1269
00:59:58,640 --> 00:59:59,960
Speaker 2: I'm going to stay in the same match and go

1270
01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:02,400
Speaker 2: with under two and a half goals minus won twenty

1271
01:00:02,440 --> 01:00:05,880
Speaker 2: Everton and Fulham. I just think that given the situation

1272
01:00:06,080 --> 01:00:08,360
Speaker 2: with this Everton attack kind of running on fumes a

1273
01:00:08,360 --> 01:00:11,360
Speaker 2: little bit Fulham's defense. It's been the same for two

1274
01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:15,280
Speaker 2: years now, Like the underlying numbers suggest that it's not

1275
01:00:15,400 --> 01:00:18,960
Speaker 2: nearly as bad as you know, like their market rating

1276
01:00:18,960 --> 01:00:20,720
Speaker 2: would suggest they can see a lot of big chances,

1277
01:00:20,760 --> 01:00:22,520
Speaker 2: but they do a good job of keeping teams out of.

1278
01:00:22,520 --> 01:00:23,160
Speaker 3: Their penalty area.

1279
01:00:23,880 --> 01:00:26,880
Speaker 2: And I think that the directness of Everton, like Fulham

1280
01:00:26,920 --> 01:00:29,480
Speaker 2: is decently big at the back, like they can handle

1281
01:00:29,480 --> 01:00:32,600
Speaker 2: the long balls whatnot. So I think it's a decent

1282
01:00:32,600 --> 01:00:35,120
Speaker 2: matchup for them defensively. And then they showed that in

1283
01:00:35,160 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 2: the last meeting when they held Everton decently well on

1284
01:00:38,640 --> 01:00:41,000
Speaker 2: the road at Goodison in the Cup and then this

1285
01:00:41,040 --> 01:00:44,120
Speaker 2: Fulham attack just continues to be just an unreal fade

1286
01:00:44,120 --> 01:00:46,600
Speaker 2: for me down the stretch, and thus under two and

1287
01:00:46,600 --> 01:00:47,960
Speaker 2: a half is where I end up. I think everythin's

1288
01:00:47,960 --> 01:00:51,360
Speaker 2: got some tired legs going on. Permier League unders never win,

1289
01:00:51,440 --> 01:00:52,200
Speaker 2: but this one might.

1290
01:00:52,520 --> 01:00:57,320
Speaker 5: All right, that'll do it for this episode of Wonder Goal.

1291
01:00:57,360 --> 01:01:00,280
Speaker 5: We will be back again on Wednesday to Premium to

1292
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:03,920
Speaker 5: preview the weekend's action and get you guys set up

1293
01:01:04,240 --> 01:01:07,760
Speaker 5: for all that's coming our way overseas in the footy.

1294
01:01:07,760 --> 01:01:11,800
Speaker 5: Then busy stretch of time for us, So thank you

1295
01:01:11,840 --> 01:01:15,440
Speaker 5: for listening. Thank you if you've left five star rating,

1296
01:01:15,480 --> 01:01:18,960
Speaker 5: and if you haven't, please do so for Anthony and Bjilmichael.

1297
01:01:18,960 --> 01:01:21,000
Speaker 5: Thank you to our sponsor BET three six five, and

1298
01:01:21,080 --> 01:01:24,600
Speaker 5: thank you to our tireless producer Noah. On the back end,

1299
01:01:24,800 --> 01:01:30,600
Speaker 5: we'll see you all in a few days.

1300
01:01:32,080 --> 01:01:35,520
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1301
01:01:35,920 --> 01:01:38,760
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1302
01:01:39,040 --> 01:01:41,640
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1303
01:01:41,760 --> 01:01:42,600
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler