1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 2: A presidential visit to Hawaii today as the Bidens stopped 6 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:22,040 Speaker 2: the vacation at Lake Tahoe for a couple and head 7 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:24,160 Speaker 2: over to the island. And if you have been following 8 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 2: the beat on this, we talked about it last week 9 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg Sound On. The President got a lot 10 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:31,840 Speaker 2: of criticism for a no comment, a lack of I 11 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 2: guess passionate response when he was on his vacation, which 12 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 2: is why we asked Marcus Coleman about that. What's FEMA 13 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 2: actually been up to this whole time? But when it 14 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:43,519 Speaker 2: comes to politics, that doesn't matter when you're the president. 15 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:48,360 Speaker 2: Asked George Bush about Katrina and they started cleaning this 16 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 2: up last week. President said some words at unrelated events 17 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 2: Press secretary wide in as it became clear that a 18 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 2: trip was in the offing. 19 00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 3: As one food bank worker described a resilient spirit that 20 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 3: we're saying, he said nothing but heloha. 21 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 4: That's all you see. 22 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:09,679 Speaker 5: That's Hawaii. That's America, and I want to people of 23 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 5: why to know your country's with you as long as 24 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 5: it takes. 25 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 2: And the President also saying that FEMA is ready to 26 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:19,639 Speaker 2: respond to Hillary in California, though by the sounds of things, 27 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 2: FEMA is already busy in California. And we bring in 28 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 2: our panel now, Jeanie Shanzano is with US Bloomberg Politics 29 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 2: contributor and Democratic Ana. Let's join a day by Chape 30 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 2: and Fay, the managing director at Actum Republican strategist. Great 31 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 2: to have you both here, Genie. I don't want to 32 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 2: spend all day on this. We just really wanted to 33 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 2: learn what was going on. People have a sense of 34 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:40,679 Speaker 2: why the president is going to Hawaii, the extent of 35 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 2: loss and the need for resources on the political side 36 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 2: of it. Though, does this trip clean up the mess 37 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 2: for Joe Biden? 38 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 6: I think it will. I think we're going to see 39 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 6: the empathetic Joe Biden that he has displayed himself as 40 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 6: as a candidate and now as president. And he did 41 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 6: make an enormous flub, if you can call it, last 42 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 6: week when he had a no comment and he's going 43 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 6: to try to make up for that but I think 44 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 6: the reality is for Joe Biden, this is all about, 45 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:10,680 Speaker 6: you know, watching what he is doing and watching what 46 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 6: the administration has been doing. And as you just discussed, 47 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 6: they've been doing an enormous amount to help the people 48 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 6: in Hawaii and now the people in California. So he's 49 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 6: going to be empathetic and he's going to talk about delivering. 50 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 6: We know he flubs his words, but that's not what 51 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 6: this is about. 52 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:30,359 Speaker 2: I don't know how you see the scripts playing out today. 53 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 2: Chapin will see and hear from the president later on. 54 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:35,119 Speaker 2: He's got a number of events planned in Hawaii. They're 55 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:37,440 Speaker 2: going to be surveying damage and so forth, and this 56 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 2: is part of the job of being president. Does he 57 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 2: deserve criticism for going late? 58 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 7: He does. 59 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,519 Speaker 5: And you know, you mentioned the job of president. Americans 60 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 5: understated tuitively that the president is not going to be 61 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 5: on the ground, you know, helping rebuild houses himself and 62 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 5: doing all that things. The role of the president is 63 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 5: to one comfort the victims and the nation and most importantly, 64 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 5: to reassure everyone that they're doing everything that they can 65 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 5: to make the situation better and that they're working for Americans. 66 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 5: That is what his stutter stuff that separated you know, 67 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 5: him from America in that, you know, saying no comment 68 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 5: when you know people have just lost their lives during 69 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 5: a tragedy. That does not instill the confidence you know 70 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:21,360 Speaker 5: that he is on top of it, that all of 71 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 5: government is responding, and you know he's the guy in 72 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 5: charge that things are going to happen. And then the 73 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 5: last I will say the reason he's going Now you 74 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 5: know his goal and I think I agree with Genie. 75 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 5: I think this will be good for him, right, It's 76 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 5: always you know good and he can be empathetic for sure. 77 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 5: And on Wednesday night, I know you were planning on 78 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 5: talking this. We're talking about this more, I think. But 79 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 5: on Wednesday night he's going to be fielding some major 80 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 5: attacks from you know, eight or nine or ten or 81 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 5: haveing many different Republican policisms are on the stage for 82 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 5: you know, however long the media cycle is twenty four 83 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 5: and forty eight maybe even seventy two hours if someone 84 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 5: has a moment, so he really needs to contrast. I'm 85 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 5: on the grand and why doing every that I can? 86 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 5: You know, while the nine politicians are up, you know, 87 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 5: throwing jabs on a stage. 88 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 4: I think that's going to be a good comparison for 89 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 4: the president. 90 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 2: Well, it's certainly a good point and something I indeed 91 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 2: wanted to talk about today because well, we know who's 92 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 2: not going to be there when we're just gonna we're 93 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 2: going to the debate, right, We're not. He's not showing 94 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 2: up on Wednesday. Ronald McDaniel at the RNC on five. 95 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 3: I'm still holding out hope that President Trump will come. 96 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 3: I think it's so important that the American people here 97 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 3: from all the candidates. But there's a lot of candidates 98 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,359 Speaker 3: that have qualified. We're at seven right now that have officially. 99 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 2: Qualified, and we'll get the official word on the rest. 100 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:37,559 Speaker 2: I guess tonight. So here's the latest. You know, Donald Trump, 101 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 2: he's he made good on the threat. I believe it 102 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 2: was Rick Davis who predicted this several months ago, not 103 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 2: showing up, or so he says today. At the same time, 104 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 2: Asa Hutchinson makes the grade he's actually going to be 105 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 2: on stage and meaning that, gosh, the kids table would 106 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 2: only be two people. I guess right, So, Genie Shanzana, 107 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 2: we finally know, or we think we do, who's going 108 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,479 Speaker 2: to be on the stage here. Based on this knowledge, 109 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 2: do you buy into the conventional wisdom, is going to 110 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:09,159 Speaker 2: be a really tough night to be a guy named Ron. 111 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 6: I think it is going to be a tough night 112 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 6: to be a guy named Ron, But I think it's 113 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 6: going to be a tough night to be any of 114 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 6: these guys on this stage. First of all, imagine if 115 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 6: Trump shows up after all, I mean, that is one 116 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 6: thing that people are watching. He said he's not going to, 117 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 6: but he does things he says he won't, So you know, 118 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 6: this is going to be all about Trump. And DeSantis 119 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:33,039 Speaker 6: is going to have a tough night because while his 120 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 6: poll numbers are dropping, he's still in second place in 121 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 6: most of these poles. He will be under attack. His 122 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:41,720 Speaker 6: campaign has been, you know, suffering a bit. And then 123 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:44,359 Speaker 6: of course, you know it's tough for all of these people, 124 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,479 Speaker 6: the people at the very bottom. This may be their 125 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:49,440 Speaker 6: last shot because it only gets tougher from here to 126 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:51,919 Speaker 6: make this debate stage. The people in the middle are 127 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:53,599 Speaker 6: going to try to be attacking the people on the 128 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 6: top make a name for themselves. So it's going to 129 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 6: be a tough night. But it is going to be 130 00:05:57,279 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 6: a tough night because overall of it will be done Trump. 131 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 6: They're not there, you know, in in you know, turning 132 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 6: himself in munk shots all the rest, and that's what 133 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 6: everybody's going to be watching. 134 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:09,680 Speaker 2: Well, of course he's done. He's actually it's in the 135 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 2: can already. In an interview with Tucker Carlson that will 136 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 2: air against this encounter program against the debate, Genie does 137 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 2: mention a great possibility shape And if you're Donald Trump, 138 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 2: why don't you just show up anyway, surprise everybody. You're 139 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 2: already going to be on with Tucker. Now you'll be 140 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 2: on here too. 141 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 7: Well, listen, it's Donald Trump. 142 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:29,600 Speaker 4: I mean. 143 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 5: One of the problems with running against a guy like 144 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 5: Donald Trump, when the reason that Democrats always in fits 145 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:36,479 Speaker 5: is you never know what he's going to do. You know, 146 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:38,279 Speaker 5: it's very hard to run against someone you don't know 147 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 5: what your opponent and how your opponent's going to react. 148 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 5: But if I was advising him, you know his campaign, 149 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 5: he is so far ahead. There's just no reason for 150 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 5: him to be on that debate stage. 151 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 1: Right. 152 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:51,599 Speaker 5: The con for him to be up there is that 153 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 5: you know, he makes a mistake or someone you know, 154 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 5: an attack lands and you know some of his status 155 00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:59,360 Speaker 5: is brought down a level and by the way being 156 00:06:59,400 --> 00:06:59,919 Speaker 5: on a stage was. 157 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 4: One like Aasa Hudginson. 158 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,160 Speaker 5: You know, does that elevate him or or while we're 159 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 5: the president or these are the calculations. The one risk 160 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 5: he does run is that, you know, his legal and 161 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 5: political future is a little uncertain. You know, this debate 162 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 5: is going to give maybe a lower here candidate the 163 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 5: opportunity to have a moment. You know, if one of 164 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 5: the one of these candidates has a real moment and 165 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 5: then you know, dominates the news for a couple of days. Yeah, 166 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 5: you know, that could cause problems. But again, he is 167 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 5: so far ahead, there's really nothing for him to gain 168 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 5: to be on the debate stage. 169 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 2: Well, so go to his post on truth social here 170 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 2: all caps and I won't do the whole probuddle, it's 171 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 2: a it's a poll. I will therefore not be doing 172 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 2: the debates plural. So are we talking no primary debates 173 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 2: at all? Because he thinks, you know, he's running for reelection. 174 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 2: He thinks he is the president. He's going to wait 175 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 2: to debate Joe Biden. As for Ron DeSantis, by the way, 176 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 2: and we'll talk more about this. See I look the 177 00:07:56,840 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 2: listless vessels bit. Did you hear this? He was talking 178 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 2: to the flor to standard. This is going on to 179 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:03,680 Speaker 2: all the deplorables, right. 180 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 7: A movement can't be about the personality of one individual. 181 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 7: The movement has got to be about what are you 182 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 7: trying to achieve on behalf of the American people? 183 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 2: Okay, and that's got. 184 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 7: To be based in principle, talking about because if you're 185 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 7: not rooted in principle, if all we are is listless vessels, 186 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 7: that's just supposed to follow, you know, whatever happens to 187 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 7: come down the pike on truth social every morning. That 188 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 7: that's not going to be a durable movement listless vessels. 189 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 7: Now I'm seeing memes and these weird fake videos on 190 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 7: Twitter genie of Ronda Santis as Hillary Clinton? Is this 191 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 7: the end of the campaign? Oh? Ron? 192 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 6: He just never learned the real rule of politics, which 193 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:51,680 Speaker 6: is you don't attack the voters by calling them deplorable 194 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 6: or listless vessels. You know, I like to, you know, say, 195 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 6: this is very much like dating. You don't that's not 196 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,320 Speaker 6: an attractive quality when you're trying to date somebody, to 197 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 6: call them a listless vessel. It's not, nor is it 198 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 6: when you're trying to get votes. So I feel badly 199 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 6: for Ron, he flubbed it again. He's got to be 200 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 6: very careful. He's learning, he's you know, I think the 201 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 6: big question for Ron does he get better by the 202 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 6: end of the summer. And we haven't seen a sign 203 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 6: of that yet, although he's out in Iowa, New Hampshire 204 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 6: an awful lot trying. 205 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:21,960 Speaker 2: I have less than a minute shaven. Did he just 206 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:25,559 Speaker 2: guarantee Ronda Santa's guarantee the pile on Wednesday night? 207 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 5: Listen, Genie's right. I mean, anytime you focus your fire 208 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 5: on a candidate, supporters, your fellow Americans, rather than the 209 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:34,719 Speaker 5: candid himself, you're just going to get into trouble to 210 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:36,640 Speaker 5: no matter what you say, it's not worth it. And 211 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:39,800 Speaker 5: I think, you know, Governor Santis has proven over now 212 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 5: some time that he's just not catching fire. And in fact, 213 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:45,840 Speaker 5: some candidates are moving up on him, and they're going 214 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 5: to try even you know, to have their moment even 215 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 5: more on Wednesday. But some of the Cantis are moving 216 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 5: up on him, and I just don't think he's caught 217 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:54,960 Speaker 5: fire the way he thought he would. 218 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 2: So we're gonna put. 219 00:09:57,000 --> 00:09:58,720 Speaker 1: Numbers on who knows. 220 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 2: Indeed, by by the way listless vessels. So now You've 221 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 2: got all these boating memes. You know, remember the boat 222 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 2: parades there all over Twitter? Didn't he mean empty vessels? 223 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 224 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:21,440 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 225 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:24,839 Speaker 1: tune in alf Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 226 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:27,839 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 227 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:32,319 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 228 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:36,720 Speaker 2: What a day to have Charlie Cook with us. Charlie 229 00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:39,079 Speaker 2: Cook just must wake up every morning and have has 230 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 2: his head explode and then goes back to reading and writing, 231 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:44,679 Speaker 2: the founder and contributor The Cook Political Report. Charlie, it's 232 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 2: great to have you back. Is Does Donald Trump have 233 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 2: a point? Can I come to this from a different angles? 234 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 2: Donald Trump have a point? With such a resounding lead, 235 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 2: why should he go? 236 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 4: I would think he would have the former president Trump 237 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:59,400 Speaker 4: should have his head examined if he did go into debate. 238 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:03,280 Speaker 4: What wow, you know he's got everything to lose, nothing 239 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:06,680 Speaker 4: to gain from it. What was the new Des Moines Register? 240 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:10,719 Speaker 4: NBC Paul a forty six point lead in Iowa and 241 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 4: that's less than it is nationally and a lot of 242 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 4: a lot of polls. So there's no reason for Trump 243 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 4: to do this. And what I'm curious about is can 244 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 4: you see the have the advertising rates on Fox for 245 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 4: that debate? Have they? Have they plummeted? I mean, if 246 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:29,960 Speaker 4: I pay good money for an audience, it's not going 247 00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 4: to be nearly as big. I'd be a little upset. 248 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 2: That's why they're begging him, right. 249 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 8: Well, I was going to say, that's why you've had 250 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 8: executives from Fox meeting with the former president. Even I 251 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:42,800 Speaker 8: believe a moderator of the debate. 252 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:45,959 Speaker 2: Yeah, supposedly bred Barr got got on the phone, not 253 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 2: showing it. Then again, Kaylee, it's Donald Trump. Maybe he 254 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 2: does show up. 255 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 8: Right, I mean, from what we know about him as 256 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 8: a president, as a candidate, Charlie, wouldn't it suggest that 257 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 8: he could still surprise us? 258 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 4: You know, Look, I'm I'm going to say there's no 259 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:04,080 Speaker 4: way that Donald Trump does or doesn't do anything. But 260 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 4: it just doesn't make a lot of sense. And one 261 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 4: thing is that his campaign this time it is far 262 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 4: far more sophisticated than it ever was in twenty sixteen 263 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:18,600 Speaker 4: and twenty twenty. I mean, they're serious adults running this thing, 264 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 4: and I think he's letting the pros do their job, so, 265 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 4: I you know, to be honest, I think if this 266 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 4: is not a Biden Trump matchup in the fall, I 267 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 4: think it's it would be uh, it would be something 268 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:34,600 Speaker 4: in the health or medical field and not legal or 269 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 4: political that would keep that rematch from happening. 270 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 2: I know what you mean by that. And so you 271 00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:44,439 Speaker 2: see new numbers from Ann Selzer today Iowa Trump forty two, 272 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 2: Desantus nineteen. The next is Scott at nine. You've covered 273 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 2: a few Iowa caucuses, Charlie, what are these numbers tell you? 274 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 2: Can you put them in perspective for our listeners? 275 00:12:56,840 --> 00:13:00,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean when it's it's it's that this is 276 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:04,560 Speaker 4: a really really big lead. And Iowa caucuses have gotten 277 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 4: so large that they're almost like primaries, uh, you know, 278 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 4: with with very widespread participation, and so polling these things 279 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 4: aren't it's not they're not real bad. They're not bad. 280 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 4: And you know, I think this is uh and the 281 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 4: fact that Desanta's dropping, nobody else has gained much. And 282 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:25,959 Speaker 4: when you look at a lot of the polling, when 283 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,560 Speaker 4: you look at people whose first choices are one of 284 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:31,880 Speaker 4: the alternatives to Trump when you ask him their second choice, 285 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 4: A lot of them it is Trump. So as this 286 00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 4: field windows, it's it's you know, he's going to get 287 00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:41,800 Speaker 4: more than his share of of of of the second 288 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:47,199 Speaker 4: the second choice vote. So I would be astonished. Again, 289 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 4: it would be if one of them had an adverse 290 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 4: health event. Okay, that might disrupt this rematch. But other 291 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 4: than that, I don't think it's going to be political. 292 00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 4: I don't think it's going to be legal. 293 00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:00,320 Speaker 8: So as you talk about kind of winnowing things to here, 294 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:03,440 Speaker 8: Kristin Nuknu, of course, wrote an op ed that has 295 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 8: gotten a lot of attention in the last twenty four 296 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 8: hours about how anything they can do to narrow the 297 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:14,200 Speaker 8: primary field to avoid having former President Trump be the 298 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:16,760 Speaker 8: Republican nominee should be should be done. He will put 299 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 8: an effort towards Do you think a narrower field would 300 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:23,320 Speaker 8: ultimately make a difference, Charlie, Well. 301 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 4: The big field's not healthy, so you know not, why 302 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,600 Speaker 4: not try a narrow one? 303 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 6: You know? 304 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 4: I think that what was the term in Catch twenty 305 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:38,960 Speaker 4: two about over choice, that sometimes when people have too 306 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 4: many choices, they can't choose, and a lot of these 307 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 4: can it. They're just sort of stuck in a they 308 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 4: just can't get any traction. But the other thing, though, 309 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 4: is that the people who win in Iowa generally don't 310 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 4: win in New Hampshire. In other words, let's say DeSantis 311 00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:03,119 Speaker 4: or whoever comes through a breakthrough. True, the Iowa caucus attendees, 312 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 4: they're so different. I mean, it's more social conservatives, evangelicals. 313 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 4: It's one group of people. And meanwhile, in the New 314 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 4: Hampshire primary, where independence can vote in a primary, it's 315 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 4: much more moderate. It's in seven of the last eight 316 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 4: competitive Republican contests, the winner of the Iowa caucus did 317 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 4: not win the New Hampshire primary. So the idea that 318 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 4: one of these people can do well in Iowa and 319 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 4: leverage it into New Hampshire given the different constituencies there, 320 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 4: I don't think that's going to happen. 321 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 2: Very interesting your thoughts on the RNC, Charlie Cook. This 322 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 2: is We've got a debate this week, so it's in 323 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:44,040 Speaker 2: the air. And there was an interesting story in the 324 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 2: New York Times today about Donald Trump's desire to debate 325 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 2: Joe Biden. That's what he wants to do. He doesn't 326 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 2: care about the Republican field. He thinks he deserves to 327 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 2: debate the president right now, and may as a result, 328 00:15:56,720 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 2: undercut the work by the RNC to somehow replace or 329 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 2: find an alternative to the Commission on Presidential Debates, which 330 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 2: they've been working on for a couple of years, and 331 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 2: based on any reporting that I've seen, they haven't gotten 332 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 2: very far. Is the CPD going to actually run these debates? 333 00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 2: Regardless Ron McDaniel's view, I. 334 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 4: Don't know what's going to happen. The thing is that 335 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 4: Donald Trump likes to play by his own rules. He 336 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 4: likes to write the rules, and the Commission pretty much 337 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:28,920 Speaker 4: does things, you know, for the most part, the way 338 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 4: they always have, and the campaigns aren't in charge, and 339 00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 4: so this is it would be an event that's you know, 340 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 4: almost entirely outside of his control, and he can't possibly 341 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 4: like that. And you know, I don't know whether he 342 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 4: will want a debate or not. But you know, I 343 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 4: think this is a grudge match. It's about and you know, 344 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 4: a lot of it's going to get back to you know, 345 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 4: this will be the first time since eighteen ninety two 346 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 4: we've had back to back presidents face off, and so 347 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 4: you could do a side by side compare. And the 348 00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:04,919 Speaker 4: problem for President Biden is when ABC and The Washington 349 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:08,680 Speaker 4: Post asked if I think it was in May who 350 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:11,840 Speaker 4: did a better job of handling the economy Donald Trump 351 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 4: when he was president or Joe Biden during his presidency 352 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 4: so far, now, overall registered voters, fifty three percent said Trump, 353 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 4: thirty eight percent said Biden, a sixteen point difference. But 354 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 4: among independents, in other words, the people that are probably 355 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 4: going to decide this thing, fifty four percent said Biden, 356 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 4: as I mean, said Trump, fifty four percent, thirty one 357 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:36,919 Speaker 4: percent said Biden, a twenty three point an even wider gap. 358 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 4: So President Biden has got to figure out A. The 359 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 4: economy's got to improve, and b he needs people to 360 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 4: acknowledge it and to give him credit for it, And 361 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 4: so far that's not happening. But I'm watching purely independence, 362 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 4: like independence in the Gallop Pole and independence in the 363 00:17:55,960 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 4: Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. Just you know, forget the partisans, 364 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 4: we know how they're going to vote, and watching the 365 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 4: gap between consumer confidence and Biden's jobacrower ready, but only 366 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:13,240 Speaker 4: among independence in both cases. 367 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 8: Well to that point on that gap when the economic 368 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 8: data is actually looking fairly good. And President Biden was 369 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,880 Speaker 8: on the road last week touting the Inflation Reduction Act 370 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 8: and Bidenomics and how the economy has improved under the 371 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:31,280 Speaker 8: course during the course of his term thus far. What 372 00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 8: is causing that disconnect and is going around the country 373 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,120 Speaker 8: talking about Bidenomics something that's going to close it? 374 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 4: You know, in politics, perception is more important than reality. 375 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 4: And the America, the average American voters not an economists, 376 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,280 Speaker 4: and they're not watching them. I mean, they're watching their 377 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:52,960 Speaker 4: daily lives and they know they're paying more than they were. 378 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:57,720 Speaker 4: And there's just sort of a lot of scar tissue 379 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:02,199 Speaker 4: from twenty twenty one that's out there that they're not 380 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 4: over it yet, and they associate even though you know, 381 00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 4: the four years that Donald Trump was in the White 382 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:12,080 Speaker 4: House were totally different from the four years that Biden 383 00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 4: has been there. But the thing is, I mean, there 384 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:17,960 Speaker 4: were different circumstances, but people are going to say I 385 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:22,520 Speaker 4: felt better off then, you know, economically speaking. But I mean, sure, 386 00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 4: of course the circumstances were different, but the average voter, 387 00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 4: they're going to say I was doing better then than 388 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:29,440 Speaker 4: I am now. 389 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:32,440 Speaker 2: The other poll that's out, I think you referenced it earlier, Charlie, 390 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 2: that's out in the last twenty four hours CBS News 391 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 2: and you gov this is the one with the forty 392 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 2: six point lead Trumps sixty two. 393 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 4: Yea, yeah, I'm sorry, I confused the number, none of 394 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:42,680 Speaker 4: which is like gargagua. 395 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 2: But does that I mean, I'm actually impressed that you 396 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 2: brought it up, because I thought that that might not 397 00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:50,199 Speaker 2: get your attention. Being a national poll, should we be 398 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 2: watching these. 399 00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I use I tried not to base 400 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,399 Speaker 4: the overall analysis on it, but that's sort of the 401 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,479 Speaker 4: shorthand thing that people lo. I mean to me, there 402 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:05,040 Speaker 4: are lots of other, you know, elements in this that 403 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 4: the Republican Party today doesn't look anything like it did ten, fifteen, 404 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:13,920 Speaker 4: twenty years ago, and it is more Donald Trump's image 405 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 4: than I think a lot of Republicans. You referenced Christnunu 406 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 4: a little while ago. This isn't the party that elected 407 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:25,440 Speaker 4: George W. Bush and his father and you know all 408 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,920 Speaker 4: these other nominated McCain and Romney. I mean, this is 409 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 4: a different party. And when you have the share of 410 00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 4: the Republicans nationwide, the share of whites that do not 411 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:41,440 Speaker 4: have a college degree, going up in ten years, going 412 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 4: up fourteen points from forty eight to sixty two percent, 413 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:51,120 Speaker 4: and the percentage of whites with a college degree dropped 414 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 4: from forty to twenty five percent. So this is a 415 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:59,320 Speaker 4: you know, we're seeing a realignment in American politics, and 416 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,919 Speaker 4: that those working class whites that are largely leaving the 417 00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 4: Democratic Party, they moved over and changed the complexion of 418 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,480 Speaker 4: the republic Party. And a lot of the college educated 419 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:12,000 Speaker 4: suburban voters, particularly women, that left the Republican Party, they're 420 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 4: over on the Democratic side. Now we're talking about two 421 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:16,159 Speaker 4: different parties than fifteen twenty years. 422 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 2: In governable, two different parties and four more indictments than 423 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 2: we're used to. Charlie Cook, it's great to have you 424 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 2: as always, the founder and contributor to the Cook Political Report. 425 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:26,960 Speaker 2: Just great insights, Kaye. I love hearing from him. I 426 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:30,440 Speaker 2: could just listen all day. This is why you choose 427 00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio. 428 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 429 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,919 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 430 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:46,280 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 431 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 432 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 433 00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:59,120 Speaker 2: We spent a lot of time talking about woke policies, 434 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:02,159 Speaker 2: so called woke at the Pentagon, to the extent that 435 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 2: one senator is even blocking promotions for military officers over this. 436 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:09,080 Speaker 2: But Kayley, this really came to a head during the 437 00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:13,240 Speaker 2: budget debate that led to this whole debt ceiling deal 438 00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:16,120 Speaker 2: that's now not a deal any longer. When House Republicans 439 00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 2: made clear they wanted cuts in defense spending and I 440 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 2: say House Republicans to be clear, Freedom Caucus House Republicans 441 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:24,639 Speaker 2: they wanted cuts. They wanted to bring it back to 442 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 2: fiscal year twenty two. Then the whole thing kind of 443 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 2: went puff because they took the Pentagon off the table 444 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:33,119 Speaker 2: a little bit. But in that effort to cut money 445 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:39,240 Speaker 2: from so called woke policy, there was a major request 446 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 2: by the Pentagon five billion dollars I believe it was 447 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,200 Speaker 2: for climate mitigation. These they come out with these reports 448 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 2: every year that show programs that are needed to keep 449 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,399 Speaker 2: facilities up and running. This is about readiness. So that 450 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:56,359 Speaker 2: got a know in the House, and John Conger actually 451 00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:58,080 Speaker 2: spent a lot of time at the Pentagon is the 452 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:00,399 Speaker 2: Deputy under Secretary of Defense now at the Center for 453 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 2: Climate and Security. It's writing an op bad about this. 454 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:05,919 Speaker 2: It's a fascinating view because you talk about ESG and climate, 455 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 2: you start thinking about well, just about everything but the Pentagon, right, 456 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,560 Speaker 2: And it's a big deal for the DoD yes. 457 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 8: In terms of actual military facilities and infrastructure that could 458 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,480 Speaker 8: be in the path of some of these natural disasters, 459 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,520 Speaker 8: like we're seeing in California with Hillary the tropical storm. 460 00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:25,119 Speaker 8: There's a huge military presence basis in southern California, be 461 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:28,560 Speaker 8: it the Navy or the Marines, others as well. So 462 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 8: there's that aspect of it, but also just in terms 463 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 8: of military engagement, if you're somewhere where there's a typhoon, 464 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 8: things like that, you have to have the weather and 465 00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,679 Speaker 8: the climate in mind. That's the central thesis of what 466 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:39,920 Speaker 8: John is saying here. 467 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,199 Speaker 2: The Pentagon doesn't fool around with climate because it has 468 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 2: to do with readiness and it has to do with 469 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:47,480 Speaker 2: our ability to respond. Conger joins us now, Director emeritus 470 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:51,040 Speaker 2: the Center for Climate and Security. John, this is going 471 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:53,680 Speaker 2: to come back up, I presume in the appropriations debate 472 00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 2: that will follow Lawmakers eventual return here, But looking at 473 00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 2: the stories we're covering, the flooding, as Kaylee mentioned, in 474 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:05,000 Speaker 2: California right now, hurricane season up and down the East Coast. 475 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:10,320 Speaker 2: It's been mercifully light so far this season. The situation 476 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,240 Speaker 2: in Hawaii. These are all places that are home to 477 00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:18,200 Speaker 2: major military installations. What's Washington need to do well? 478 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,160 Speaker 9: I think Washington needs to keep its eyes open and 479 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:25,480 Speaker 9: avoid pretending that these problems don't exist. That's the first thing. 480 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,400 Speaker 9: And that's a little bit of what Congress was doing 481 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,440 Speaker 9: when they said that, oh, this is obviously politics and 482 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,720 Speaker 9: we have to put this aside. When I was at 483 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:40,119 Speaker 9: the Pentagon and currently, the Pentagon clearly cares about the 484 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 9: impacts of extreme weather on its basis, on its infrastructure, 485 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:48,399 Speaker 9: on its ability to train, and we need to be ready. 486 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:50,040 Speaker 9: We need to be able to keep the lights on, 487 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:54,080 Speaker 9: keep the missions going no matter what the weather. And 488 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 9: that means planning and it means being ready. 489 00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:00,960 Speaker 8: So when we're talking about mitigating climate risks the military 490 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,719 Speaker 8: in defense, what does that actually look like that they 491 00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,040 Speaker 8: need the funding for? What does it fund? 492 00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 9: So you're going to be funding energy resilience projects, putting 493 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:16,720 Speaker 9: microgrids on bases so that when the electric grid goes down, 494 00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 9: the base days open and the lights stay on. You're 495 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:25,280 Speaker 9: going to be funding infrastructure projects like there was a 496 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:32,520 Speaker 9: project in Norfolk where they do the maintenance on nuclear submarines. 497 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,800 Speaker 9: They did flood protection there because of sea level rise. 498 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 9: You don't want when your nuclear reactor is open and 499 00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 9: you're doing maintenance on the submarines for the water to 500 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,520 Speaker 9: rush in, and so they had to lift the sea 501 00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,680 Speaker 9: walls up a few feet higher. That was actually proposed 502 00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:53,520 Speaker 9: by the Trump administration. This is historically not a partisan 503 00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 9: issue when you're just talking about protecting military forces and 504 00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:57,680 Speaker 9: military capability. 505 00:25:57,960 --> 00:25:59,600 Speaker 2: It becomes a part of an issue when you put 506 00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 2: the term climate change on it though. Right, This is 507 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,760 Speaker 2: the issue here, John, is that there are a lot 508 00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:07,920 Speaker 2: of preconceived notions. One of your roles at the Pentagon 509 00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,160 Speaker 2: in your time with the DoD was helping to manage 510 00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:16,840 Speaker 2: budget for the Pentagon's real estate property portfolio. Can you 511 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,560 Speaker 2: imagine the size of this klee eight hundred and fifty 512 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:24,440 Speaker 2: billion dollars? What does that portfolio need to keep it whole? 513 00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:30,600 Speaker 9: Well, that portfolio is historically a little bit underfunded. And 514 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,760 Speaker 9: the fact of the matter is is that DoD, right 515 00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:38,040 Speaker 9: now has over one hundred billion dollars in unfunded maintenance 516 00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 9: that they've just deferred. That's never mind the climate change aspects. 517 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,600 Speaker 9: But what they need to be able to do is 518 00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:50,719 Speaker 9: to anticipate the most severe impacts and put in, you know, 519 00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:55,160 Speaker 9: infrastructure that can allow them to continue to operate, continue 520 00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 9: to protect their missions. This is really about mission assurance. 521 00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:02,280 Speaker 9: Climate is one impact. You could have cyber attacks on 522 00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:06,480 Speaker 9: the grid and these same kinds of investments would protect 523 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,480 Speaker 9: against those, depending on you know, for the micro rids 524 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,600 Speaker 9: and so on. So the god. 525 00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,080 Speaker 8: Sorry John, to interrupt your thought, but it's one thing 526 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,480 Speaker 8: to talk about how this impacts you know, US military operations, 527 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,640 Speaker 8: but also climate can have a role in what the 528 00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,280 Speaker 8: military actually has to engage in. 529 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 7: Right. 530 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,040 Speaker 8: You made a really interesting point, I thought in your 531 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:30,520 Speaker 8: piece about how climate change increases things like food security, 532 00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:34,399 Speaker 8: water scarcity, forces, migration, and all of that can drive 533 00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:38,400 Speaker 8: global instability. So it can actually become just a broader 534 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:42,240 Speaker 8: security concern when we're thinking about you know, the military 535 00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:43,600 Speaker 8: and security interests. 536 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:51,080 Speaker 9: Absolutely, it pushes in particular nations that have limited government 537 00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:55,879 Speaker 9: capacity to deal with problems. It has a tendency to 538 00:27:56,760 --> 00:28:01,040 Speaker 9: leave the people there more upset more angry, and it 539 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:06,919 Speaker 9: can lead to civil conflict. And in Syria, that's the 540 00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:10,720 Speaker 9: best example that I have of sort of climate driving 541 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:15,920 Speaker 9: problems that lead to conflict. You had hundreds of thousands 542 00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,919 Speaker 9: of refugees from the Iraq War already in Syria, and 543 00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:22,960 Speaker 9: you add a multi year drought that drove farmers off 544 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:27,240 Speaker 9: their lands. There was the agricultural lands were left useless, 545 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,119 Speaker 9: and they all moved into the same cities. Nobody had jobs, 546 00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 9: and it created the seeds of discontent. The climate change 547 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:37,199 Speaker 9: caused the Syrian Civil War, No, but it certainly pushed 548 00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:38,240 Speaker 9: it in that direction. 549 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,320 Speaker 2: Okay, so let's get back to appropriations here. Republicans in 550 00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 2: the House said no to that five billion dollar request. 551 00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,160 Speaker 2: What if the final answer is, though, John, we're not 552 00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,120 Speaker 2: here with any agenda. I'm trying to learn from you 553 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:52,480 Speaker 2: what happens if we do nothing? 554 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:56,719 Speaker 9: All right, Well, first of all, the Republicans cut about 555 00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:59,760 Speaker 9: seven hundred and fifteen million dollars out of the five 556 00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,800 Speaker 9: billion dollar requests, so a lot of it did actually 557 00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:07,320 Speaker 9: get approved. They sort of targeted their cuts in a 558 00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:11,920 Speaker 9: few areas. Some of it was research and development that 559 00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,240 Speaker 9: puts us behind the eight ball. As we're trying to 560 00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:18,920 Speaker 9: solve hard problems. Some of it was targeted at base operations. 561 00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:24,160 Speaker 9: Why you would undermine planning for this kind of thing 562 00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,680 Speaker 9: and trying to figure out how you're going to address 563 00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,280 Speaker 9: location by location the climate change, I'm not sure. And 564 00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:34,000 Speaker 9: then the other big thing they cut was the Army's 565 00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 9: efforts to try and integrate hybrid and electric technology into 566 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:43,280 Speaker 9: some of their ground vehicles. I've heard it characterized as 567 00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 9: the hybrid imperative. If you can save twenty five percent 568 00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:50,360 Speaker 9: of your fuel efficiency by making these vehicles hybrid vehicles, 569 00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:54,320 Speaker 9: why wouldn't you A lot of the people that died 570 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:58,360 Speaker 9: in recent wars were in fuel convoys. Wouldn't you want 571 00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:02,160 Speaker 9: fuel fuel convoys? Isn't this make sense from a just 572 00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:06,800 Speaker 9: preserving life perspective? This isn't about emissions that you could make. 573 00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:08,880 Speaker 9: You could take away all those emissions from all those 574 00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,280 Speaker 9: vehicles and it wouldn't dent the global picture. This is 575 00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:13,040 Speaker 9: about war fighting. 576 00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,040 Speaker 8: Okay, so just quickly, John, we only have about a 577 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:19,080 Speaker 8: minute left. But even with just that seven hundred and 578 00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:22,000 Speaker 8: fifteen million dollars cut out of what the Pentagon asks for, 579 00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,280 Speaker 8: how does that impact military readiness? 580 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,480 Speaker 9: It impacts military readiness. In the biggest part where it 581 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,760 Speaker 9: impacts military readiness is it takes away the funding for 582 00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:37,280 Speaker 9: their ability to plan for, you know, what they need 583 00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,320 Speaker 9: to do at each base in order to prevent climate 584 00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 9: change from stopping missions. It's it is a the projects 585 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:49,120 Speaker 9: at the individual basis to harden the infrastructure. That is 586 00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:52,680 Speaker 9: the biggest individual impact that you're going to see. 587 00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:57,240 Speaker 2: Fascinating conversation, John, Thanks for being with us, director emeritus 588 00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:00,000 Speaker 2: of the Center for Climate and Security. He spend time 589 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,360 Speaker 2: I'm as Deputy under Secretary of Defense while at the Pentagon. 590 00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:11,760 Speaker 2: John Kunger here on Bloomberg's sound On. Thanks for listening 591 00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,160 Speaker 2: to the sound On podcast. Make sure to subscribe if 592 00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:17,000 Speaker 2: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you 593 00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,760 Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every 594 00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:23,120 Speaker 2: weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern Time at 595 00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,840 Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com.