Speaker 1: Welcome to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Gruduski. Thank
Speaker 1: you for being here for my premiere episode one of
Speaker 1: I hope to be many many in the future. This
Speaker 1: podcast is going to be dedicated to presenting listeners with
Speaker 1: data and information rather than narratives. A lot of people
Speaker 1: in the media care a lot about presenting narratives and
Speaker 1: very little about giving just straight information and letting you decide.
Speaker 1: I want you to decide by presenting you with the
Speaker 1: data that will make you smarter, make you more interesting,
Speaker 1: make you fun to listen to at dinner. And every
Speaker 1: week's me a new episode, new guests on different topics,
Speaker 1: mostly politics, but also the economy, culture, entertainment, sports.
Speaker 2: And if I need a guest to sit there and
Speaker 2: be an expert in something, I will bring them to
Speaker 2: you for that episode. Every episode will also have a
Speaker 2: link of it to my National Populist newsletter on substack.
Speaker 2: If you go to Natpopnewsletter dot com you can sign
Speaker 2: up up for a thirty day free trial to read
Speaker 2: and visually see what I'm going to tell you and
Speaker 2: my first episode, I want to talk about the new year,
Speaker 2: the new Congress, and the sort of new president. I
Speaker 2: mean he's been there before, but he's essentially new president.
Speaker 2: President Trump is going to come into the presidency with
Speaker 2: a Republican Congress, Republican Senate. Fifty three members of the
Speaker 2: Senate are Republicans, forty five are Democrats, two are independents,
Speaker 2: and four hundred and thirty five members of Congress will
Speaker 2: be I've just been elected. Two hundred and twenty were
Speaker 2: elected as Republicans, two hundred and fifteen were elected as Democrats.
Speaker 2: But the two big numbers from that you should draw
Speaker 2: are the numbers three and the numbers sixteen. Three is
Speaker 2: the majority in the House of Representatives. That is all
Speaker 2: the Republicans have. And it's even more complicated for Speaker
Speaker 2: Mike Johnson, who's trying to be re elected as Speaker.
Speaker 2: The three person majority is smaller because one macates has.
Speaker 2: Former Congressman that case now has retired after winning re election,
Speaker 2: and there'll be a special election for his seat in
Speaker 2: Florida's first district. At least Staphonic in Upstate New York
Speaker 2: from Upstate New York is preparing to retire and resign
Speaker 2: to go work for the Trump administration as the United
Speaker 2: Nations Ambassador, and Mike Waltz from Florida is also preparing
Speaker 2: to resign to go work for the Trump administration. That
Speaker 2: gives Speaker Johnson very very little wiggle room. Now, I
Speaker 2: imagine that Congresswomen's Saphonic and Congressman Walts will sign, will
Speaker 2: swear in, they'll vote for Speaker Johnson, and then when
Speaker 2: the Trump administration comes in and formally nominates them, then
Speaker 2: they'll leave and go, and then the seats will be vacant.
Speaker 2: All three seats are overwhelmingly Republican, likely to be replaced
Speaker 2: by a Republican, but that takes time. Special elections take time,
Speaker 2: and that means there'll be a window where Speaker Johnson
Speaker 2: is very little wiggle room. And in a very diverse
Speaker 2: Congress with a lot of different opinions within the Republican Party,
Speaker 2: that is, people who are fiscal hawks who want to
Speaker 2: fight over budget spending, you'll have more liberal Republicans, You'll
Speaker 2: have more conservative Republicans, You'll have more populous Republicans. It's
Speaker 2: hard to rope all those people together and everyone hold
Speaker 2: hands in one giant family, especially when you've seen in
Speaker 2: fighting before Congress already began. Likewise, Democrats have their own
Speaker 2: issues where you have more AOC progressive wing versus on
Speaker 2: Nancy Pelosi establish a wing and a handful of conservative
Speaker 2: Democrats or more moderate Democrats like Josh Gothheimer, for example,
Speaker 2: out of New Jersey. That is a different dichotomy altogether.
Speaker 2: But Democrats are a much better job at holding their
Speaker 2: part together than the Republicans do for an assortment of
Speaker 2: reasons that I won't even go into today, but that's
Speaker 2: definitely part of it. Now within the whole Congress, the
Speaker 2: four hundred and thirty five. The other number I told
Speaker 2: you to think about is the number sixteen. The number
Speaker 2: sixteen represents the thirteen Democrats who won elect their election
Speaker 2: or re election in seats that Trump won, and the
Speaker 2: three Republicans who won their reelection in all three cases
Speaker 2: in districts that Kamala Harris won. Now, the three Republicans
Speaker 2: are Don Bacon from Nebraska's second Mike Lawler from New
Speaker 2: York seventeen, and Brian Fitzpatrick from Pennsylvania's first district. Don
Speaker 2: Bacon is in a very Democratic seat. He will be
Speaker 2: a much more moderate member of the party because he
Speaker 2: asked to sit there and hold on. He did very
Speaker 2: very well that he won by one point eight percent,
Speaker 2: despite Trump losing his district by over four percent. Mike
Speaker 2: Lawler and Brian Fitzpatrick out of New York and Pennsylvania, respectively,
Speaker 2: they won by a much larger margin because the margin
Speaker 2: that Trump lost by was under a point in both seats.
Speaker 2: So who are the thirteen Democrats?
Speaker 1: Though?
Speaker 2: The thirteen Democrats who woke up the day after election
Speaker 2: day realizing that they were representing Republican districts, some of
Speaker 2: whom were very surprised because those districts long were Democratic
Speaker 2: strongholds and because the party has realigned with a lot
Speaker 2: more working class people, some black voters, some Hispanic voters,
Speaker 2: some Asian voters moving to the right. There all of
Speaker 2: a sudden in a district that Trump won. There's two
Speaker 2: out of California, Josh Harder and Adam Gray. That's the
Speaker 2: Central Valley, very Latino, very Hispanic, moved very far to
Speaker 2: the right. There's Jared Golden, a main main second congressional
Speaker 2: It's northern Maine. He's always been a pretty conservative Democrat.
Speaker 2: He votes for most of the Republican stuff on a
Speaker 2: lot of bills. He wrote an article for I think
Speaker 2: it was the Bangalor of Daily saying that he was
Speaker 2: going to vote for Donald Trump. He's a pretty conservative member.
Speaker 2: He barely won in a very very Republican seat. Then
Speaker 2: there's the newly Then there's Dan Kilde from Michigan's eighth district,
Speaker 2: which is around the city of Flint area. You have
Speaker 2: Susie Lee in Nevada's third, which is south of Las Vegas.
Speaker 2: Nellie Poe. He's brand new, so I might be mispronouncing
Speaker 2: his name. I'm sorry, I am if I am. It's
Speaker 2: New Jersey's ninth that's in like the suburbs of New
Speaker 2: York City. You have Gay Basquez in southern New Mexico.
Speaker 2: His seat is Jerry Mander, so heavily I'm surprised that
Speaker 2: Trump won it, but he did. You have Tom Swazi,
Speaker 2: which is in Long Island. He's a Democrat. That and
Speaker 2: a district that Trump won by five points. Don Davis
Speaker 2: in North Carolina that is the more rural, black, white,
Speaker 2: working class area. He barely won it in a district
Speaker 2: that's becoming much much more Republican. You have a Marcy
Speaker 2: Captor who's been there since nineteen eighty two. She represents
Speaker 2: an area of Ohio near Michigan. In a very reddening
Speaker 2: part of the country to in Texas in what I
Speaker 2: call the Fahita Belt. This is the part of the
Speaker 2: country that touches Mexico. You have Henry Quaar from Texas
Speaker 2: twenty eight and you have been Sane Gunzales from Texas
Speaker 2: thirty four. Those are districts that are running to the
Speaker 2: right so fast it is to make a speedy Gonzales show.
Speaker 2: But that's that's ye know gross. Anyway, you have Maria
Speaker 2: Goose camp Perez over in Washington's third which is South
Speaker 2: Washington near the Oregon border. That's a lot in and
Speaker 2: I described who they were and where they lived, because
Speaker 2: if you live in one of their district your voice
Speaker 2: really matters. If they so choose to run for a
Speaker 2: re election, they have incredibly tough fights. They're going to
Speaker 2: have to run in districts they support Trump. They support
Speaker 2: a lot of Trump's agenda. They probably support mass deportation
Speaker 2: or tax cuts, or you know, a foreign policy that
Speaker 2: looks more like Trump and less like Joe Biden. They
Speaker 2: will be in a difficult position. So when then that's
Speaker 2: a double sided sword. By the way, so when Speaker
Speaker 2: Johnson says, hey, I need to pass continuing resolutions that
Speaker 2: include things that a lot of conservative Republicans don't like. Well,
Speaker 2: they have no problem because they're sit in there and
Speaker 2: standing with the speaker, and it kind of isolates a
Speaker 2: lot of conservative Republicans on spending bills, and at the
Speaker 2: same exact time, they have the ability and the flexibility
Speaker 2: to say, I'm voting for border le funding, I'm voting
Speaker 2: for enforcement funding, i am voting for tax cuts or whatever.
Speaker 2: The Republican is agenda is that it's considered centrist and
Speaker 2: moderate without isolating Democrats. Because like Susan Collins, who is
Speaker 2: perceied to be the only Republican to win in a
Speaker 2: blue state, they're considered some of the only Democrats to
Speaker 2: win in a red district. And that's really where that
Speaker 2: number sixteen comes in and why it is so important
Speaker 2: because in twenty twenty five, in the first few months
Speaker 2: of the year, or maybe it's like the first year,
Speaker 2: first year of the of his presidency, most of Trump's
Speaker 2: legislative accomplishments are gonna, you know, come about and pass,
Speaker 2: or they're going to whether or on the vine you're
Speaker 2: listening to, it's a numbers game. With Ryan Gerdosky, we'll
Speaker 2: be right back. There are a few other members that
Speaker 2: are worth looking at. These are members who are in
Speaker 2: more swing districts. They are in districts maybe Trump won
Speaker 2: but he barely won. They're in districts that Harris won
Speaker 2: but they're going far to the right, or districts that
Speaker 2: are moving to the left of they're Republican, And I'm
Speaker 2: thinking of if you're a Democrat, right, if you're a
Speaker 2: Democrat all throughout states of like California. California has so
Speaker 2: many Democrats besides just Adam Gray and Josh Harder, who
Speaker 2: I've talked about, but George Whitehouse, he's in Califorlifornia twenty
Speaker 2: seven district. He's in a district that he won by
Speaker 2: a decent margin, but Trump's. That was a Biden double
Speaker 2: digit district and now it is a barely barely barely
Speaker 2: Democratic district. Left, you're talking about David min from Orange County,
Speaker 2: and you're talking about Derek Tran also from Orange County.
Speaker 2: That's an area that as Asians have sat there and
Speaker 2: changed their political affiliation more to the right, your politics
Speaker 2: have changed with them. There's also a district in South
Speaker 2: Florida for Jared Moscowitz that you're thinking of and all
Speaker 2: around the New York City suburban districts and New York
Speaker 2: City districts. Like I said Tom Swazi before, but Laura Gillan,
Speaker 2: Pat Ryan, Josh Riley, the House majority and the future
Speaker 2: House majority will run through blue states. I don't think
Speaker 2: people realize this. A lot of other pundits will say,
Speaker 2: get out the Blue states, just lead, just leave. Why
Speaker 2: you're still there, And I get it, I'm still in
Speaker 2: a blue states. It's a lot. But if you want
Speaker 2: a Republican majority, you need those California districts, you need
Speaker 2: those New York districts, you need those Minnesota districts and
Speaker 2: those New Jersey districts. And Jerry Manner has made him harder,
Speaker 2: but it's not impossible. And those members are in tough seats.
Speaker 2: There are also a few Republicans who are in districts
Speaker 2: that are getting bluer and blue and bluer. You're talking
Speaker 2: about Juan Siscamani over in Arizona. He's a very conservative member,
Speaker 2: but he is in a district that is very tough.
Speaker 2: Just sit there and win in. You're talking about Scott
Speaker 2: Perry over in Pennsylvania, which is basically the Harrisburg District.
Speaker 2: Now he is a Freedom Caucus member. He's a very
Speaker 2: conservative member in a district that is getting very, very,
Speaker 2: very tough for Republicans to compete in. So maybe he'll
Speaker 2: moderate more. I don't know. He's pretty pretty hardcore on
Speaker 2: his conservative beliefs, but who knows. Maybe I'll sit there
Speaker 2: and say, this is the only way I could survive
Speaker 2: in this very tough position and keep the Republicans from
Speaker 2: having another landslide loss in twenty twenty six, or keep
Speaker 2: the majority possibly or vote for Trump's agenda, which is
Speaker 2: the point of this entire thing. How Republicans and Democrats
Speaker 2: performed in twenty twenty four effects twenty twenty five. Incredibly,
Speaker 2: I want to just take one second, although these were
Speaker 2: not my two numbers, and just mention the Senate. The
Speaker 2: Senate will be an interesting thing because you'll have senators
Speaker 2: who are retiring, and you'll have senators who are up
Speaker 2: for very tough primaries. Specifically eyeing two people in particular,
Speaker 2: Mitch McConnell and Jim Reech. Jim Reach represents Idaho. He
Speaker 2: will be eighty three years old in twenty twenty six
Speaker 2: for reelection. Mitch McConnell will be eighty four obviously has
Speaker 2: had a number of health episodes, and how they vote
Speaker 2: in the upcoming Congress will be if they want, how
Speaker 2: they want their legacy to be. Now, Mitch mcconnel's really
Speaker 2: made his legacy, but if he spends his last two
Speaker 2: years sitting there and giving the middle finger to Donald Trump,
Speaker 2: that will be part of his legacy. If Jim Reech,
Speaker 2: who most probably not know, decides to be the Mitt
Speaker 2: Romney of twenty twenty five, that will be part of
Speaker 2: his legacy. And it depends on how he wants to
Speaker 2: really be covered for the rest of his life and
Speaker 2: at the end of his life. There's also and Democrats
Speaker 2: on him that many eyes for retirement, possibly Dick Durbin,
Speaker 2: but who knows. I mean, we'll see. There are essentially
Speaker 2: when it comes to Republican primaries, there's for incumbents who
Speaker 2: are facing challenges who will have to show more allegiance
Speaker 2: to Donald Trump, more allegiance towards ANAGA MAGA policy. There's
Speaker 2: really four states that matter. There's Louisiana with Senator Cassidy,
Speaker 2: who voted for the Trump impeachment already is already facing
Speaker 2: a statewide challenger, a state wide elected challenger who's got
Speaker 2: money and resources and will likely be in a very
Speaker 2: tough position. There's John Cornyn in Texas, who is a
Speaker 2: powerful member of the Senate but also has a million
Speaker 2: people targeting him. There's Lindsey Graham, who is Trump's buddy,
Speaker 2: but he's had a lifetime and a law career of
Speaker 2: supporting everything from amnesty to a never ending wars. And
Speaker 2: there's Joni Earns from Iowa, who people have put a
Speaker 2: lot of eyes on because of her heasancy towards like
Speaker 2: Pete has guests and parts of the Trump administration. Put
Speaker 2: that aside, let's look at who is looking at a
Speaker 2: tough re election fight. There are two Republicans. Susan Collins
Speaker 2: who will if anyone challenge her would be a giant
Speaker 2: mistake because she's the only one who could win that seat,
Speaker 2: and Tom Tillis over in North Carolina. Both those members
Speaker 2: will I mean, Susan Collins couldn't do whatever she wants
Speaker 2: you Susan Collins, but Tom Tillis it would not be
Speaker 2: shocking to sit there and see him maybe pushing away
Speaker 2: from certain positions if they consider too extreme. At the
Speaker 2: other end. There are two Democrats running for reelection in
Speaker 2: states that Trump won, first being John Ossoff. John Ossof
Speaker 2: in the Great State of Georgia, first termer. He kind
Speaker 2: of looks like me if I shave my beard when
Speaker 2: I have a beer, I look like Mike Lahler and
Speaker 2: so so it's a choice. But you have him, and
Speaker 2: you have got Gary Peters over in Michigan. Two senators
Speaker 2: who are going to be looking at a very tough
Speaker 2: thing out. John Aussip is very politically ideological. He's very
Speaker 2: left wing. He might stay that way and say, challenge me,
Speaker 2: I'll win reelection despite being left wing. Gary Peters he
Speaker 2: might sit there and put his finger in the wind
Speaker 2: and say, let me see how the win's blowing. Two
Speaker 2: other senators are running for reelection who are going to
Speaker 2: be in competitive seats, possibly first being Jean Shaheen, the
Speaker 2: former governor term senator of New Hampshire. To say that
Speaker 2: Trump lost by two points, there's potentially a big challenger
Speaker 2: considering running against her with a lot of money and resources.
Speaker 2: And then Mark Warner in Virginia, who could have a
Speaker 2: challenge from Governor Glenn Younkin, the popular outgoing governor Virginia
Speaker 2: has a weird rule. You can only run for one
Speaker 2: term as a governor at a time. You can then
Speaker 2: run for reelection after you give someone else a chance.
Speaker 2: It's very strange, but Glenn Younkin will be out of
Speaker 2: a job come twenty twenty five, so the chances of
Speaker 2: running for re election starting for the send in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty six. He will have nothing holding back. That's really
Speaker 2: the economy though. Those few senators and those sixteen members,
Speaker 2: those sixteen members will decide whether or not Mike Johnson
Speaker 2: can hold and push forward Trump's agenda despite having only
Speaker 2: three seats. Now, I know this was a lot of
Speaker 2: information for a first episode, but you guys got to
Speaker 2: be prepared for the year ahead. Thank you so much
Speaker 2: for listening. I cannot tell you how much I appreciate it.
Speaker 2: I hope this is the beginning of a lot more episodes.
Speaker 2: We'll have a guest on next week and we're going
Speaker 2: to talk immigration policy. So come on check us out
Speaker 2: every Monday on the iHeartRadio app, the Apple podcast, or
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcast. I appreciate you. Tune in
Speaker 2: next time.