1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:07,960 Speaker 1: Welcome to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Gruduski. Thank 2 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:11,040 Speaker 1: you for being here for my premiere episode one of 3 00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 1: I hope to be many many in the future. This 4 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: podcast is going to be dedicated to presenting listeners with 5 00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 1: data and information rather than narratives. A lot of people 6 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:24,560 Speaker 1: in the media care a lot about presenting narratives and 7 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:28,480 Speaker 1: very little about giving just straight information and letting you decide. 8 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: I want you to decide by presenting you with the 9 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: data that will make you smarter, make you more interesting, 10 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: make you fun to listen to at dinner. And every 11 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:39,519 Speaker 1: week's me a new episode, new guests on different topics, 12 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:44,520 Speaker 1: mostly politics, but also the economy, culture, entertainment, sports. 13 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:46,920 Speaker 2: And if I need a guest to sit there and 14 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:48,879 Speaker 2: be an expert in something, I will bring them to 15 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 2: you for that episode. Every episode will also have a 16 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 2: link of it to my National Populist newsletter on substack. 17 00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 2: If you go to Natpopnewsletter dot com you can sign 18 00:00:59,920 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 2: up up for a thirty day free trial to read 19 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 2: and visually see what I'm going to tell you and 20 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 2: my first episode, I want to talk about the new year, 21 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 2: the new Congress, and the sort of new president. I 22 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:13,559 Speaker 2: mean he's been there before, but he's essentially new president. 23 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 2: President Trump is going to come into the presidency with 24 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 2: a Republican Congress, Republican Senate. Fifty three members of the 25 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 2: Senate are Republicans, forty five are Democrats, two are independents, 26 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 2: and four hundred and thirty five members of Congress will 27 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 2: be I've just been elected. Two hundred and twenty were 28 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:34,959 Speaker 2: elected as Republicans, two hundred and fifteen were elected as Democrats. 29 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:38,039 Speaker 2: But the two big numbers from that you should draw 30 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:43,040 Speaker 2: are the numbers three and the numbers sixteen. Three is 31 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 2: the majority in the House of Representatives. That is all 32 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 2: the Republicans have. And it's even more complicated for Speaker 33 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 2: Mike Johnson, who's trying to be re elected as Speaker. 34 00:01:54,400 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 2: The three person majority is smaller because one macates has. 35 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 2: Former Congressman that case now has retired after winning re election, 36 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 2: and there'll be a special election for his seat in 37 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 2: Florida's first district. At least Staphonic in Upstate New York 38 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 2: from Upstate New York is preparing to retire and resign 39 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 2: to go work for the Trump administration as the United 40 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 2: Nations Ambassador, and Mike Waltz from Florida is also preparing 41 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 2: to resign to go work for the Trump administration. That 42 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 2: gives Speaker Johnson very very little wiggle room. Now, I 43 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:31,799 Speaker 2: imagine that Congresswomen's Saphonic and Congressman Walts will sign, will 44 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 2: swear in, they'll vote for Speaker Johnson, and then when 45 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:36,919 Speaker 2: the Trump administration comes in and formally nominates them, then 46 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 2: they'll leave and go, and then the seats will be vacant. 47 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 2: All three seats are overwhelmingly Republican, likely to be replaced 48 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 2: by a Republican, but that takes time. Special elections take time, 49 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 2: and that means there'll be a window where Speaker Johnson 50 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 2: is very little wiggle room. And in a very diverse 51 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 2: Congress with a lot of different opinions within the Republican Party, 52 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 2: that is, people who are fiscal hawks who want to 53 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:05,399 Speaker 2: fight over budget spending, you'll have more liberal Republicans, You'll 54 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 2: have more conservative Republicans, You'll have more populous Republicans. It's 55 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:13,239 Speaker 2: hard to rope all those people together and everyone hold 56 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 2: hands in one giant family, especially when you've seen in 57 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:20,919 Speaker 2: fighting before Congress already began. Likewise, Democrats have their own 58 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 2: issues where you have more AOC progressive wing versus on 59 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 2: Nancy Pelosi establish a wing and a handful of conservative 60 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 2: Democrats or more moderate Democrats like Josh Gothheimer, for example, 61 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 2: out of New Jersey. That is a different dichotomy altogether. 62 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 2: But Democrats are a much better job at holding their 63 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 2: part together than the Republicans do for an assortment of 64 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 2: reasons that I won't even go into today, but that's 65 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 2: definitely part of it. Now within the whole Congress, the 66 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 2: four hundred and thirty five. The other number I told 67 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 2: you to think about is the number sixteen. The number 68 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 2: sixteen represents the thirteen Democrats who won elect their election 69 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 2: or re election in seats that Trump won, and the 70 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 2: three Republicans who won their reelection in all three cases 71 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 2: in districts that Kamala Harris won. Now, the three Republicans 72 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 2: are Don Bacon from Nebraska's second Mike Lawler from New 73 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 2: York seventeen, and Brian Fitzpatrick from Pennsylvania's first district. Don 74 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:21,720 Speaker 2: Bacon is in a very Democratic seat. He will be 75 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 2: a much more moderate member of the party because he 76 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 2: asked to sit there and hold on. He did very 77 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 2: very well that he won by one point eight percent, 78 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 2: despite Trump losing his district by over four percent. Mike 79 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:36,280 Speaker 2: Lawler and Brian Fitzpatrick out of New York and Pennsylvania, respectively, 80 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 2: they won by a much larger margin because the margin 81 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 2: that Trump lost by was under a point in both seats. 82 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 2: So who are the thirteen Democrats? 83 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 1: Though? 84 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:47,799 Speaker 2: The thirteen Democrats who woke up the day after election 85 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:51,039 Speaker 2: day realizing that they were representing Republican districts, some of 86 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 2: whom were very surprised because those districts long were Democratic 87 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 2: strongholds and because the party has realigned with a lot 88 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 2: more working class people, some black voters, some Hispanic voters, 89 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,520 Speaker 2: some Asian voters moving to the right. There all of 90 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 2: a sudden in a district that Trump won. There's two 91 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:12,039 Speaker 2: out of California, Josh Harder and Adam Gray. That's the 92 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:16,840 Speaker 2: Central Valley, very Latino, very Hispanic, moved very far to 93 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:21,160 Speaker 2: the right. There's Jared Golden, a main main second congressional 94 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:24,799 Speaker 2: It's northern Maine. He's always been a pretty conservative Democrat. 95 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 2: He votes for most of the Republican stuff on a 96 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 2: lot of bills. He wrote an article for I think 97 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:30,840 Speaker 2: it was the Bangalor of Daily saying that he was 98 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 2: going to vote for Donald Trump. He's a pretty conservative member. 99 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 2: He barely won in a very very Republican seat. Then 100 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 2: there's the newly Then there's Dan Kilde from Michigan's eighth district, 101 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:43,719 Speaker 2: which is around the city of Flint area. You have 102 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:48,720 Speaker 2: Susie Lee in Nevada's third, which is south of Las Vegas. 103 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 2: Nellie Poe. He's brand new, so I might be mispronouncing 104 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 2: his name. I'm sorry, I am if I am. It's 105 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:56,359 Speaker 2: New Jersey's ninth that's in like the suburbs of New 106 00:05:56,440 --> 00:06:00,599 Speaker 2: York City. You have Gay Basquez in southern New Mexico. 107 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 2: His seat is Jerry Mander, so heavily I'm surprised that 108 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 2: Trump won it, but he did. You have Tom Swazi, 109 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:08,919 Speaker 2: which is in Long Island. He's a Democrat. That and 110 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 2: a district that Trump won by five points. Don Davis 111 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 2: in North Carolina that is the more rural, black, white, 112 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:19,919 Speaker 2: working class area. He barely won it in a district 113 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 2: that's becoming much much more Republican. You have a Marcy 114 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:26,920 Speaker 2: Captor who's been there since nineteen eighty two. She represents 115 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:30,840 Speaker 2: an area of Ohio near Michigan. In a very reddening 116 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 2: part of the country to in Texas in what I 117 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:35,159 Speaker 2: call the Fahita Belt. This is the part of the 118 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 2: country that touches Mexico. You have Henry Quaar from Texas 119 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 2: twenty eight and you have been Sane Gunzales from Texas 120 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 2: thirty four. Those are districts that are running to the 121 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:49,279 Speaker 2: right so fast it is to make a speedy Gonzales show. 122 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 2: But that's that's ye know gross. Anyway, you have Maria 123 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 2: Goose camp Perez over in Washington's third which is South 124 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,840 Speaker 2: Washington near the Oregon border. That's a lot in and 125 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 2: I described who they were and where they lived, because 126 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,840 Speaker 2: if you live in one of their district your voice 127 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 2: really matters. If they so choose to run for a 128 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 2: re election, they have incredibly tough fights. They're going to 129 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 2: have to run in districts they support Trump. They support 130 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 2: a lot of Trump's agenda. They probably support mass deportation 131 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 2: or tax cuts, or you know, a foreign policy that 132 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 2: looks more like Trump and less like Joe Biden. They 133 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 2: will be in a difficult position. So when then that's 134 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 2: a double sided sword. By the way, so when Speaker 135 00:07:34,200 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 2: Johnson says, hey, I need to pass continuing resolutions that 136 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 2: include things that a lot of conservative Republicans don't like. Well, 137 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 2: they have no problem because they're sit in there and 138 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 2: standing with the speaker, and it kind of isolates a 139 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 2: lot of conservative Republicans on spending bills, and at the 140 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 2: same exact time, they have the ability and the flexibility 141 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 2: to say, I'm voting for border le funding, I'm voting 142 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:59,240 Speaker 2: for enforcement funding, i am voting for tax cuts or whatever. 143 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 2: The Republican is agenda is that it's considered centrist and 144 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 2: moderate without isolating Democrats. Because like Susan Collins, who is 145 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 2: perceied to be the only Republican to win in a 146 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 2: blue state, they're considered some of the only Democrats to 147 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 2: win in a red district. And that's really where that 148 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 2: number sixteen comes in and why it is so important 149 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 2: because in twenty twenty five, in the first few months 150 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,120 Speaker 2: of the year, or maybe it's like the first year, 151 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 2: first year of the of his presidency, most of Trump's 152 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 2: legislative accomplishments are gonna, you know, come about and pass, 153 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 2: or they're going to whether or on the vine you're 154 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 2: listening to, it's a numbers game. With Ryan Gerdosky, we'll 155 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 2: be right back. There are a few other members that 156 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:44,560 Speaker 2: are worth looking at. These are members who are in 157 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 2: more swing districts. They are in districts maybe Trump won 158 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 2: but he barely won. They're in districts that Harris won 159 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:54,599 Speaker 2: but they're going far to the right, or districts that 160 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 2: are moving to the left of they're Republican, And I'm 161 00:08:57,040 --> 00:08:59,200 Speaker 2: thinking of if you're a Democrat, right, if you're a 162 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 2: Democrat all throughout states of like California. California has so 163 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 2: many Democrats besides just Adam Gray and Josh Harder, who 164 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:11,679 Speaker 2: I've talked about, but George Whitehouse, he's in Califorlifornia twenty 165 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 2: seven district. He's in a district that he won by 166 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 2: a decent margin, but Trump's. That was a Biden double 167 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:21,440 Speaker 2: digit district and now it is a barely barely barely 168 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 2: Democratic district. Left, you're talking about David min from Orange County, 169 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:30,079 Speaker 2: and you're talking about Derek Tran also from Orange County. 170 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 2: That's an area that as Asians have sat there and 171 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 2: changed their political affiliation more to the right, your politics 172 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 2: have changed with them. There's also a district in South 173 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 2: Florida for Jared Moscowitz that you're thinking of and all 174 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:44,600 Speaker 2: around the New York City suburban districts and New York 175 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 2: City districts. Like I said Tom Swazi before, but Laura Gillan, 176 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 2: Pat Ryan, Josh Riley, the House majority and the future 177 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 2: House majority will run through blue states. I don't think 178 00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 2: people realize this. A lot of other pundits will say, 179 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:01,839 Speaker 2: get out the Blue states, just lead, just leave. Why 180 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 2: you're still there, And I get it, I'm still in 181 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 2: a blue states. It's a lot. But if you want 182 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 2: a Republican majority, you need those California districts, you need 183 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 2: those New York districts, you need those Minnesota districts and 184 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 2: those New Jersey districts. And Jerry Manner has made him harder, 185 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 2: but it's not impossible. And those members are in tough seats. 186 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 2: There are also a few Republicans who are in districts 187 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 2: that are getting bluer and blue and bluer. You're talking 188 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 2: about Juan Siscamani over in Arizona. He's a very conservative member, 189 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 2: but he is in a district that is very tough. 190 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 2: Just sit there and win in. You're talking about Scott 191 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 2: Perry over in Pennsylvania, which is basically the Harrisburg District. 192 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 2: Now he is a Freedom Caucus member. He's a very 193 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 2: conservative member in a district that is getting very, very, 194 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 2: very tough for Republicans to compete in. So maybe he'll 195 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 2: moderate more. I don't know. He's pretty pretty hardcore on 196 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 2: his conservative beliefs, but who knows. Maybe I'll sit there 197 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 2: and say, this is the only way I could survive 198 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 2: in this very tough position and keep the Republicans from 199 00:10:56,800 --> 00:10:59,960 Speaker 2: having another landslide loss in twenty twenty six, or keep 200 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 2: the majority possibly or vote for Trump's agenda, which is 201 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 2: the point of this entire thing. How Republicans and Democrats 202 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 2: performed in twenty twenty four effects twenty twenty five. Incredibly, 203 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 2: I want to just take one second, although these were 204 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 2: not my two numbers, and just mention the Senate. The 205 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 2: Senate will be an interesting thing because you'll have senators 206 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:24,600 Speaker 2: who are retiring, and you'll have senators who are up 207 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 2: for very tough primaries. Specifically eyeing two people in particular, 208 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 2: Mitch McConnell and Jim Reech. Jim Reach represents Idaho. He 209 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:35,720 Speaker 2: will be eighty three years old in twenty twenty six 210 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:38,880 Speaker 2: for reelection. Mitch McConnell will be eighty four obviously has 211 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:42,959 Speaker 2: had a number of health episodes, and how they vote 212 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 2: in the upcoming Congress will be if they want, how 213 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 2: they want their legacy to be. Now, Mitch mcconnel's really 214 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 2: made his legacy, but if he spends his last two 215 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 2: years sitting there and giving the middle finger to Donald Trump, 216 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 2: that will be part of his legacy. If Jim Reech, 217 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 2: who most probably not know, decides to be the Mitt 218 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,679 Speaker 2: Romney of twenty twenty five, that will be part of 219 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 2: his legacy. And it depends on how he wants to 220 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 2: really be covered for the rest of his life and 221 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 2: at the end of his life. There's also and Democrats 222 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,440 Speaker 2: on him that many eyes for retirement, possibly Dick Durbin, 223 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:18,439 Speaker 2: but who knows. I mean, we'll see. There are essentially 224 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 2: when it comes to Republican primaries, there's for incumbents who 225 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:28,200 Speaker 2: are facing challenges who will have to show more allegiance 226 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 2: to Donald Trump, more allegiance towards ANAGA MAGA policy. There's 227 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 2: really four states that matter. There's Louisiana with Senator Cassidy, 228 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 2: who voted for the Trump impeachment already is already facing 229 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 2: a statewide challenger, a state wide elected challenger who's got 230 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:46,560 Speaker 2: money and resources and will likely be in a very 231 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 2: tough position. There's John Cornyn in Texas, who is a 232 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 2: powerful member of the Senate but also has a million 233 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:57,480 Speaker 2: people targeting him. There's Lindsey Graham, who is Trump's buddy, 234 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 2: but he's had a lifetime and a law career of 235 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 2: supporting everything from amnesty to a never ending wars. And 236 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 2: there's Joni Earns from Iowa, who people have put a 237 00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 2: lot of eyes on because of her heasancy towards like 238 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 2: Pete has guests and parts of the Trump administration. Put 239 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 2: that aside, let's look at who is looking at a 240 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:20,440 Speaker 2: tough re election fight. There are two Republicans. Susan Collins 241 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:23,120 Speaker 2: who will if anyone challenge her would be a giant 242 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 2: mistake because she's the only one who could win that seat, 243 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 2: and Tom Tillis over in North Carolina. Both those members 244 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 2: will I mean, Susan Collins couldn't do whatever she wants 245 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 2: you Susan Collins, but Tom Tillis it would not be 246 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 2: shocking to sit there and see him maybe pushing away 247 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 2: from certain positions if they consider too extreme. At the 248 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:44,080 Speaker 2: other end. There are two Democrats running for reelection in 249 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 2: states that Trump won, first being John Ossoff. John Ossof 250 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:52,719 Speaker 2: in the Great State of Georgia, first termer. He kind 251 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:54,199 Speaker 2: of looks like me if I shave my beard when 252 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 2: I have a beer, I look like Mike Lahler and 253 00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 2: so so it's a choice. But you have him, and 254 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:02,959 Speaker 2: you have got Gary Peters over in Michigan. Two senators 255 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:05,319 Speaker 2: who are going to be looking at a very tough 256 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,840 Speaker 2: thing out. John Aussip is very politically ideological. He's very 257 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 2: left wing. He might stay that way and say, challenge me, 258 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 2: I'll win reelection despite being left wing. Gary Peters he 259 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 2: might sit there and put his finger in the wind 260 00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:20,200 Speaker 2: and say, let me see how the win's blowing. Two 261 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 2: other senators are running for reelection who are going to 262 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:27,880 Speaker 2: be in competitive seats, possibly first being Jean Shaheen, the 263 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 2: former governor term senator of New Hampshire. To say that 264 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 2: Trump lost by two points, there's potentially a big challenger 265 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 2: considering running against her with a lot of money and resources. 266 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 2: And then Mark Warner in Virginia, who could have a 267 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 2: challenge from Governor Glenn Younkin, the popular outgoing governor Virginia 268 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 2: has a weird rule. You can only run for one 269 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:49,800 Speaker 2: term as a governor at a time. You can then 270 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 2: run for reelection after you give someone else a chance. 271 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 2: It's very strange, but Glenn Younkin will be out of 272 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 2: a job come twenty twenty five, so the chances of 273 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 2: running for re election starting for the send in twenty 274 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 2: twenty six. He will have nothing holding back. That's really 275 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 2: the economy though. Those few senators and those sixteen members, 276 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 2: those sixteen members will decide whether or not Mike Johnson 277 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 2: can hold and push forward Trump's agenda despite having only 278 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 2: three seats. Now, I know this was a lot of 279 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,440 Speaker 2: information for a first episode, but you guys got to 280 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 2: be prepared for the year ahead. Thank you so much 281 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 2: for listening. I cannot tell you how much I appreciate it. 282 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 2: I hope this is the beginning of a lot more episodes. 283 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 2: We'll have a guest on next week and we're going 284 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 2: to talk immigration policy. So come on check us out 285 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 2: every Monday on the iHeartRadio app, the Apple podcast, or 286 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcast. I appreciate you. Tune in 287 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 2: next time.