1 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:07,840 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Cloomberg eleventh to Washington d C, 2 00:00:08,039 --> 00:00:12,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg dwell on its to San Francisco, 3 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:16,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg n to the Country series at Channel one ninety 4 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,600 Speaker 1: and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Bus appen Bloomberg 5 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:25,640 Speaker 1: dot com. This is Bloomberk Surveillance. It is a Torny 6 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 1: on Wall Street and Michael McKee along with Tom Keene 7 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 1: Economic Indicators brought to you by Commonwealth Financial Network. When 8 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 1: it's time to change the conversation, talk with a broker 9 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: dealer r I A that's ready to listen called six 10 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: four six two. Visit Commonwealth dot com to learn more. 11 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: Vinnie l. Juns At the first word desk has a 12 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 1: plethora of plethora, a plethora retail sales, the producer price 13 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:51,519 Speaker 1: index both down the headline on the retail sales report 14 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 1: for March minus point three percent, down point three percent. 15 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:58,319 Speaker 1: Going into the report, economists at expected a point one 16 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 1: percent gain. So when negative number underlying figures with the 17 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: retail sales ex Autos X Autos and Gas of Control 18 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: group all up a bit. The producer price index a 19 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,680 Speaker 1: gauge of wholesale prices down point one percent in March 20 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 1: excluding food and energy also downpoint one year over year. 21 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 1: We're looking at downpoint one as well on the pp 22 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: I at the blottle Bark first word desk. Convitice. Let's 23 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:24,600 Speaker 1: go back to me vity, just a remarkable thank you 24 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 1: for that important report. We do get a bond market 25 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:30,399 Speaker 1: reaction two year yield from point seven zero. We go 26 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 1: in a solid two beeps on that point seven three 27 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 1: zero three. The tenure not the same move, but the 28 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: two years an abrupt, single basis point move off the 29 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:43,679 Speaker 1: enthusiasm we saw earlier. Mike, when you look at this data, 30 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 1: I know we're gonna get to our steam guests. When 31 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 1: you looked at the data, does a tilt Atlanta GDP 32 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 1: now to a negative statistic? That's hard to know. Um. 33 00:01:54,800 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 1: It depends on what the they're using as comparison. Um, 34 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 1: because this report includes things that are are are measured 35 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 1: other ways. In the bow ties, for one example, Marksany 36 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:11,959 Speaker 1: doesn't wear bow tie at least not very often that 37 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 1: I know of. But uh, in his maybe, but you 38 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: didn't tie it. I know you're said James Bond talk. 39 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 1: You know, Uh, he's chief economist at Moody's Analytics, and 40 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 1: you've had about as longer look at this as I have, 41 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:32,160 Speaker 1: just a few seconds. And what straighted. What the first 42 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: thing that struck me is when was the last time 43 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:40,360 Speaker 1: gasoline actually contributed to retail sales price? JA pushes gasolit 44 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:43,239 Speaker 1: up nine tenths. But other than that, I don't see 45 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 1: anything terrible in the report. But what it kind of 46 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 1: looks like is that maybe it's just not additional good. 47 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 1: I mean, uh, we have some up, some down, nothing 48 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 1: nothing awful, but like maybe people didn't buy as much 49 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:59,920 Speaker 1: of stuff as as they might have otherwise. Yeah, well, 50 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 1: it's okay. I'm looking at the numbers now. It's up 51 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 1: two tense excluding vehicles, uh maybe a tense uh pex, 52 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:11,960 Speaker 1: auto and gas. So it's you know, middling that I 53 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 1: looked like they revised up a little bit gender January. 54 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:16,959 Speaker 1: But I'm you know, I'm looking out really really quickly. 55 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,119 Speaker 1: But you know, the other thing to keep in mind 56 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 1: here is this is, uh, it doesn't account for price effects, 57 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 1: and pricing in the retail sector of its has been 58 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:28,080 Speaker 1: very weak because of a strong dollar, and so on 59 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 1: a real basis, it's probably better, but but you know, 60 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 1: it's kind of ling retailing is okay, not great. Just 61 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 1: you know, Mike McKie, I just did a three, six 62 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 1: and twelve month analysis of the control group X this, X, 63 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 1: that X the other thing, and it's exactly as dr 64 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: Z Anddi called middling. You know, you look at the 65 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 1: convexity of the slopes and it's just it's just indeterminate. 66 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: Middling is perfect. Well that raises the question, and this 67 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: is the new American numerical analysis, but I guess it 68 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: it calls four Just kind of your thoughts on why 69 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 1: this is happening, Marco. What's with the American consumer that 70 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: they just don't they don't pull back, but they don't 71 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: move forward. Well, uh, you know, I think I look 72 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:17,839 Speaker 1: at the total consumer spending pie right, retailing is half 73 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:20,239 Speaker 1: of it. The other half is fine, Uh, was spending 74 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 1: on services. It's actually quite strong. So real consumer spending 75 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 1: growth last year was over three percent, which is you know, 76 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:31,160 Speaker 1: that's that's probably go to the gets and except much more. 77 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 1: It's a little soft in the last year beginning of 78 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:37,159 Speaker 1: this maybe the turmoil and dancial Marcus has had some effect. 79 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 1: You know, the so called wealth effect. High end is 80 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 1: a signal of softness because of the client stock prices, 81 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 1: of volatility and stock prices. But you know, broadly speaking, 82 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 1: I think we'll get another really good year for overall 83 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:53,720 Speaker 1: consumer spending retailing kind of the lagging UH and I 84 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:56,360 Speaker 1: would expect that to continue. But the service side, no problem, 85 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: a lot of strong growth there. Okay, Mark, I want 86 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:01,479 Speaker 1: to dive in to the debate du jour, which is 87 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 1: Atlanta GDP now and now the New York Fed with 88 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 1: a g d P now. Um, you're a legit pen 89 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:12,360 Speaker 1: educated macro economist. Let's start with the idea. How did 90 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: we get here to where major policy thinkers like Mark 91 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: Zandi are worrying about GDP adjustment on a weekly or 92 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 1: even by a major statistic basis, how bad is this drug? Well, 93 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 1: you know, we want better sense of what's happening real time. 94 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 1: It comes in handy when the economy isn't cooperating. I 95 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: think back, I think back that January February two thousand 96 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:43,920 Speaker 1: and nine, the whole world was evaporating, and we really, 97 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 1: you know, we knew it was bad, we didn't know 98 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 1: nearly how bad. And so if we had a better 99 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:51,479 Speaker 1: sense of that, I think the policy response would have 100 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 1: been better. So, you know, it's kid to really have 101 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 1: a good understanding going on what's going on real time. 102 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:00,120 Speaker 1: And you know, for for most people listening to to 103 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 1: really you don't know what's going on in real time. 104 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 1: While the answer is yes, because it's a big economy, 105 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 1: a lot of moving parts, and trying to measure it's very, 106 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 1: very difficult. So this is another attempt to try to 107 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: get a sense of what's going on, uh, you know, 108 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 1: right right now in the current quarter. But having said that, 109 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 1: you know, this is another imprecise representation of reality. Uh. 110 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 1: You know. Frankly, I think we were much better served 111 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:24,160 Speaker 1: if we focus on the number of jobs out there 112 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:26,720 Speaker 1: that we can count a lot better than GDP. It's 113 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 1: a very good point that other people have made recently, 114 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 1: is that the jobs are much more easily measured than 115 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 1: a lot of things that go into these numbers. When 116 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 1: we come back with Marks Andy from Moody's and analytics, 117 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: we'll talk also about prices. The pp I TOM comes 118 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 1: in lower than forecast, down a tenth, and if you 119 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:52,839 Speaker 1: look at the core p p I it's also down 120 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 1: a tenth. We were expecting a rise. One of the 121 00:06:56,279 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 1: things that knocked it down, Mark, we're talking about price 122 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 1: adjustments services which are now included in the PPI off. 123 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 1: We can talk a little bit about that. We'll do 124 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:07,679 Speaker 1: that with Marcus Andy right now. A middling data report. 125 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 1: Equities middling from twelve down to plus nine. The ten 126 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 1: ye yield one point seven seven. This hour surveillance brought 127 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 1: to by Westchester suber Up is at Westchester super out 128 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 1: dot com. Here's Michael bar with news headlines. Mike Tom, 129 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 1: thank you very much. About thirty nine thousand Verizon landline 130 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 1: and cable workers on the East Coast have walked off 131 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:35,080 Speaker 1: the job. The worker's latest contract expired in August, and 132 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 1: so far the unions and management say negotiations have been unsuccessful. 133 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 1: Verizon says it has trained thousands of non union workers 134 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 1: to fill in for the strikers. Flights have been canceled 135 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 1: that Brussels airport after Belgian air traffic controllers went on strike. 136 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 1: The airport is trying to get back on its feet 137 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 1: after last month deadly terrorist bombings. According to a published report, 138 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: the FBI paid professional hackers a one time be to 139 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: crack the code to get into an iPhone used by 140 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 1: one of the San Bernardino terrorists. The Washington Post reports 141 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 1: the hackers were able to help avoid a security feature 142 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:13,720 Speaker 1: that would have erased all the data on the iPhone. 143 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 1: FBI director James come He says he's glad to have 144 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 1: bluetigation behind him, but hopes the discussion continues about how 145 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 1: to balance security and privacy. I don't know what the 146 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 1: answer is, and I don't think it's the FBIS job 147 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 1: to tell you what the answer is. The FBIS job 148 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: was to say, hey, folks, the tools you're counting on 149 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 1: us to use to keep you safe are less and 150 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 1: less effective because of this commission. Global News twenty four 151 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 1: hours a day, powered by our twenty four hundred journalists 152 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 1: and more than a hundred fifty news bureaus from around 153 00:08:41,520 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 1: the world. Hi'm Michael Barr, Mike tom Thank you, Michael. 154 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 1: Toime now for the Bloomberg NBC Sports update with John Stasha. 155 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 1: All right, Mike, still early, but the number is not 156 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 1: pretty for the Mets, A one eight seven team batting Nabitt, 157 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 1: Travis Darnault is ending one oh five. Curtis Grant is 158 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 1: in O seventy four war Mets for two and five. 159 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 1: After losing a fourth Strade home game, Miami scored eighth 160 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 1: did anyone two to one and no decision for no 161 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 1: Noah synder Guard, who's struck out twelve Yankees one three 162 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 1: two at Toronto with four hitless sittings, are released by 163 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:14,440 Speaker 1: the bullpen. Brian McCann homeward sixteening to tie the game. 164 00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:16,960 Speaker 1: Yank scored in the seventh to take the lead. The 165 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:19,560 Speaker 1: curtain comes down tonight in Los Angeles on the twenty 166 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:22,440 Speaker 1: year career of Kobe Bryant, who was asked how his 167 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 1: emotions will be. We'll see Wednesday. You know, so far, 168 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 1: I've been pretty pretty cool about everything. I've been very 169 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:31,840 Speaker 1: thankful about everything and very happy about everything. I don't 170 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 1: hasn't really hit me yet, so you know, we'll see. 171 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 1: We'll see it. Does he won five championships, third leading 172 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,320 Speaker 1: scorer in NBA history. Well that goes on. In l A. 173 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 1: The Warriors play Memphis of Golden State victory. They finished 174 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 1: seventy three and nine and Steph Curry will have led 175 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: the greatest regular season ever. We're in the moment and 176 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 1: joined the ride and and obviously the goal is in 177 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 1: a championship. Um, that's what we're playing for. But we've 178 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 1: put ourselves in our great fast adition to end the 179 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 1: season with Owen and do something no teams done in history. 180 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 1: So that's that's an amazing accomplishment. As for the next 181 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 1: they finished with a nice round fifty losses after losing 182 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 1: in Indiana one or two to ninety. They'll drop the 183 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,839 Speaker 1: fucking Pittsburgh tonight to again the Stanley Cup playoffs. Rangers 184 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:16,559 Speaker 1: and Penguins for the third year in a row, and 185 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 1: the Blue Shirts have ended the Penguins last two seasons, 186 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:22,960 Speaker 1: but Sydney Crosby and Pittsburgh ventished the regular season, going 187 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:25,560 Speaker 1: fourteen and two. Rangers haven't lost in the opening round 188 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:28,479 Speaker 1: of the playoffs since two thousand eleven. With the Bloomberg 189 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:32,320 Speaker 1: NBC Sports Update, I'm John Stashan, John, I thank you 190 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 1: so much. Michael McKie. I'm going to Pittsburgh. I've got 191 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 1: I got a family relation there and i gotta go 192 00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 1: with Pittsburgh. It's like an emotional thing. You are called 193 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 1: grizzled and chiseled. Who are you going? I'm going with 194 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:49,439 Speaker 1: the Washington Cather front running. But they are. They built 195 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:52,560 Speaker 1: this team for the playoffs, so we shall see if 196 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:56,680 Speaker 1: they can pull it through. It begins tonight, twenty games Max. 197 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance bloomberk s Avalance Brought you by 198 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 1: a Fordham University the Gabelly School of Business Executive NBA 199 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 1: top ranked with a renowned professional network classes in Columbus 200 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:11,600 Speaker 1: Circle or Westchester. Learned more at Fordham dot et slash 201 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: e m B a global business news twenty four hours 202 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 1: a day at Bloomberg dot com, the radio plus mobil 203 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 1: and on your radio is a Bloomberg Business Flash. And 204 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:29,559 Speaker 1: I'm Karen Moscow, There's updates. Brought to you by Marx 205 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 1: Paneth LLP, ranked among the top three forensic accounting firms 206 00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:34,920 Speaker 1: in New York by the New York Law Journal for 207 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:38,679 Speaker 1: the sixth year in a row. Visit Marx Paneth dot Com. 208 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 1: Sales that you had. Sales at US retailers unexpectedly fell 209 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 1: in March. The three tenth percent dropping purchases followed little 210 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:49,439 Speaker 1: change the prior month. Wholesale prices in the US unexpectedly 211 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:51,840 Speaker 1: fell in March for a second month of one percent 212 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 1: drop in the Producer Price Index followed a two ten 213 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 1: percent decrease in February. JP Morgan Chase, the biggest US 214 00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 1: lender by assets, posting first quarter profit that beat Wall 215 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 1: Street estimates as the firm slashed bankers pay and training 216 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 1: revenue declined and less than most analysts predicted. HITS shares 217 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 1: are up two point four percent this morning. US Dock 218 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 1: Index futures also higher. SNP e Many futures of nine 219 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 1: points now e Many futures of seventy nine, naz DOCIMNY 220 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 1: futures of thirty one. The decks in Germany's up two 221 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: point one percent. Ten, Your treasury up to thirty seconds, 222 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,679 Speaker 1: the yield one point seven six percent. Non mex scrude 223 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 1: oil down one point six percent or sixty seven cents 224 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 1: to forty one fifty one. A barrel Comex gold is 225 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 1: down one point one percent or fourteen dollars to twelve 226 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 1: forty seven. Announced the euro at dollar thirteen twelve and 227 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: the EN one oh nine point one six and US 228 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 1: coal giant Pboty Energy found for bankruptcy. The most powerful 229 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 1: convulsion yet in an industry that's enduring the worst slump 230 00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:50,439 Speaker 1: in decades. And that's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and 231 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 1: Mike Karen, thank you so much. You get futures up twelve. 232 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 1: They've backed up a little up nine off retail. It 233 00:12:56,720 --> 00:13:01,320 Speaker 1: is on Wall Street. The follow is from Bloomberg View. 234 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 1: Opinions and commentary from Bloomberg columnists. I'm Megan mccartell, a 235 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:07,959 Speaker 1: columnist for Bloomberg View. The release of the Panama papers 236 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 1: and the surprising dearth of American names among them, the 237 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:12,840 Speaker 1: build a lot of public confusion about the difference between 238 00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 1: tax avoidance and tax evasion. Evasions hiding your income so 239 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 1: you don't have to pay the tax you Oh, it's illegal, immoral, 240 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 1: and really stupid, because the I R. S Is quite 241 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:24,319 Speaker 1: good at catching tax sheets. Avoidance just means arranging your 242 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:26,719 Speaker 1: affairs so you pay the least possible tax, which is 243 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:28,679 Speaker 1: what you do every time you deposit money into your 244 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:32,320 Speaker 1: for own k. It's unavoidable, unobjectionable, and about as American 245 00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 1: as apple pie. But when rich people do it by 246 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: buying tax exempt made yourself bonds, for example, Americans seem 247 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 1: to have a sense that that's wrong. Unless you want 248 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 1: to voluntarily stop taking your mortgage interest tax deduction. That's 249 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 1: a hard principle to sustain. Of course, you can argue 250 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 1: that avoidance is a symptom of bad public policy. If 251 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 1: we want better public policy, we have to accept the 252 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:54,320 Speaker 1: trade offs ending the tax exempt status of municipal bonds, 253 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 1: for example, would make it more expensive for local governments 254 00:13:56,920 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 1: to borrow money. Ending the charitable deduction another favorite of 255 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 1: the which would bother her value nonprofits from museums to churches. Really, 256 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:05,440 Speaker 1: every loophole you can name is the side effect of 257 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 1: something people like. If we want to have a less complicated, 258 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 1: less progressive tax system, we can probably stamp out avoidance. 259 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:13,959 Speaker 1: But if we aren't willing to accept those trade offs, 260 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:16,560 Speaker 1: we shouldn't complain about the inevitable gaming of the system 261 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 1: we have on Megan McCardell from more View. Go to 262 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 1: move review dot com or view. Go on the Bloomberg Terminal. 263 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 1: This has been Bloomberg View and Bloomberview commentaries come here 264 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 1: to hourly weekdays. I'm Bloomberg Radio Michael McKee. A major 265 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 1: shout out to our people working in finance. Bloomberg Top 266 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 1: Live tp L i V is nothing short of fabulous. 267 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 1: It is a running stream of the JP Morgan conference 268 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:48,520 Speaker 1: call right now, filled with all sorts of charts from 269 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 1: at least five six, seven, eight people, smart people piling 270 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 1: into it. It's a service. It's I'm the terminal. Folks, 271 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 1: you can't get it on your cell phone. I would 272 00:14:57,000 --> 00:15:00,440 Speaker 1: argue it is the future of news coverage. It is. 273 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 1: It is just fabulous. There's no other way to put it. 274 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 1: And here's the thing. It's unlike following something on Twitter. 275 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:09,280 Speaker 1: You can trust everything you're reading on it because it's 276 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 1: done by Bloomberg reporters. Yeah, and Derek Dack and Campbell 277 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 1: among others. Tell Baraka refund there as well, Mike, get 278 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:17,520 Speaker 1: us back to Mark all right. Marks Any is a 279 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:20,000 Speaker 1: chief economist at Moody's Analytics, and we're talking about the 280 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 1: numbers that are out this morning. We talked some about 281 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 1: the retail sales figures. P p I comes in disappointing 282 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 1: total final demand as they call it, now down intentive 283 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 1: a percent. We thought it might be higher. One of 284 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 1: the things pulling it down. Mark Services, and we were 285 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 1: talking about the strength of services just a few moments ago. Yeah, 286 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:44,960 Speaker 1: the usually service prices rise, and I was just taking 287 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 1: a look a little bit of detail. It's kind of 288 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 1: kind of weird. Uh, financial services prices fell. Uh if 289 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 1: you want to rent a car or the price for 290 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 1: that fell. So I don't know, I'm not trying to 291 00:15:54,520 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 1: read a whole lot into it. Maybe just chalk it 292 00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 1: up to some monthly volatility, but generally price is uh. 293 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 1: Inflation remains low. And that's one reason when you have 294 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 1: to take that those retail sales numbers with adding an 295 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:10,240 Speaker 1: account because of course it doesn't account for pricing, the week, 296 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 1: pricing and so on a real basis, the retail sales number, 297 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:16,640 Speaker 1: you're stronger. And as you as everyone who listens to 298 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 1: the show knows the producer price, it next doesn't automatically 299 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 1: translate into consumer prices. Consumer prices, according to the CPI Index, 300 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:28,360 Speaker 1: have been rising in recent months. Do we think that 301 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 1: trend continues? I do, Uh, you're right. The core consumer 302 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 1: pricing in deex excluding food and energy kind of underlying 303 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 1: inflation is I think it's now two point three percent 304 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 1: year over year, and it's firming, and I think you've 305 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 1: got a number of dynamics supporting further acceleration. Wage growth 306 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: is picking up given the good job market, tightening labor market. 307 00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 1: You've got strong rent growth because the building is low 308 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 1: relative to demand and therefore vacancies falling, so it's driving 309 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 1: up and net key. And then of course the other 310 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:04,719 Speaker 1: thing is health care reflacetion starting to pick up as 311 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:09,639 Speaker 1: the effects of Obamacare, the depressed healthcare replace are beginning 312 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:11,639 Speaker 1: to date, and of course that's very labor intensive, and 313 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 1: so as wages rise, that push. So I think yes, 314 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:17,320 Speaker 1: UH inflation broadly is going to continue to push higher 315 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 1: more or less. Mark you can do econ calculations of 316 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 1: what the catchup is second, third, and fourth quarter this 317 00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 1: year to get back to the new normal from the 318 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 1: horrific first quarter we're in right now, and it's export. 319 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 1: I understand there's a lot of n x UH noise 320 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 1: within this. When does it happen? Is it is it 321 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:39,719 Speaker 1: a jump condition in this April with the Baltimore Orioles 322 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 1: and the Chicago at the first place, or is this 323 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:45,680 Speaker 1: something that we wait for like you know, Christmas shopping 324 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,879 Speaker 1: December ten? No, you know, we've got this residional seasonality problem. 325 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 1: We're just not the b e A to the keeper 326 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,480 Speaker 1: of this state is not able to account for the 327 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 1: seasonality as well UH as they need to. And so 328 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,560 Speaker 1: would that mean just Q one GDP is always on 329 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 1: the soft side, But we get abounce Q two UH 330 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,479 Speaker 1: should be bigger than you'd expect or Q three, So 331 00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 1: we'll get it back and we'll end the year with 332 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:14,400 Speaker 1: GDP growth roughly words, been for the last five six 333 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: years of somewhere between two and two and a half 334 00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:19,200 Speaker 1: percent um, the one where I was gonna go. But 335 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 1: I gotta follow up on that by asking you what 336 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 1: you think the reason is the first quarter growth is 337 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 1: generally so slow because until this first quarter it was 338 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:32,480 Speaker 1: easy to blame it on the weather. Well, I think 339 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:35,480 Speaker 1: that we have measurement issues. You know that this residency 340 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 1: called residual seasonality issue is a real is real. I mean, 341 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 1: every que one since the recession has been soft, and 342 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 1: I think it's describing the having difficulty catching it. And 343 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 1: you know, as you know, even in the best of times, 344 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,000 Speaker 1: the GDP numbers get revised a lot, you know, somewhere 345 00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:56,119 Speaker 1: between between the times they first released the number and 346 00:18:56,600 --> 00:19:00,080 Speaker 1: three months later when they released the third revision, and 347 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:04,120 Speaker 1: the average, uh the revision is between one and one 348 00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 1: and a percentage point. You saw that in Q Q four. 349 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:09,280 Speaker 1: Remember Q four was also team in initially very weak. 350 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 1: It was revised up. How we expect the same thing here. 351 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 1: So I think there's you know, more measurement issue here 352 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 1: than not. And that's why I keep the hearkening back 353 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 1: to the point focus on jobs that we can count 354 00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:25,159 Speaker 1: those I mean focus on unemployee insurance claims. Those are 355 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 1: a real count of people going to the uneployment in 356 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,639 Speaker 1: shurance officer. So there was a problem in the economy. 357 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 1: We know it from from those numbers. The numbers are 358 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:38,520 Speaker 1: it's like a Picasso painting. You know, it's very opaque. 359 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,879 Speaker 1: It's hard to read through, and particularly quarter of course, 360 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:42,879 Speaker 1: so that you know I I focused almost coming out 361 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,959 Speaker 1: of the labor market. Well within that, what what are 362 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:47,560 Speaker 1: we going to see how the labor market? I mean, 363 00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:50,000 Speaker 1: what is the new level of the terminal rate? I 364 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:55,480 Speaker 1: mean is it over two per months? No? I mean 365 00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:57,600 Speaker 1: we can't sustain that for very long. I mean the 366 00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 1: working each population, it's gonna grow in a typical time 367 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:04,439 Speaker 1: no more than a hundred thousand per month. So with 368 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 1: unemployment at five, with underemployment falling very rapidly and coming 369 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:13,440 Speaker 1: close to you a considered uful employment, we're gonna see 370 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:15,440 Speaker 1: a combination of two things happen over the next year 371 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 1: or two. One is waste growth will accelerate, that will 372 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 1: become more obvious. And the second thing is job growth 373 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,199 Speaker 1: will slow. Despite definition, We're not gonna be able to 374 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:25,440 Speaker 1: fill those record open positions that are out there. So 375 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 1: the job market says screening, you know, the economy is 376 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 1: in good shape, and I think that's more of the 377 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,040 Speaker 1: reality of what's going on. The GDP numbers, which you 378 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:36,520 Speaker 1: looked at them, didn't put them into context. You said 379 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,640 Speaker 1: the economy is really struggling here, but it's not. Mark. 380 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Mark Sandy with Moody's giving us 381 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 1: the economic brief this morning. Uh, Mike McKie, sales side 382 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 1: is always important, and Rich Greenfield gets a lot of 383 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:53,160 Speaker 1: play because it's stuff in our living room. He adjusts 384 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 1: on Netflix. I just canceled to Netflix accounts, but I'm 385 00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:02,960 Speaker 1: not the public. He's more optimistic. He increases his price target. 386 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,359 Speaker 1: Hundred and fifty dollars is a big move. His price 387 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 1: target this year's sort of saggy, but all clicks in 388 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 1: next year. He's raised substantially his subscribe subscriber growth globally 389 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,440 Speaker 1: for next year. Simply put their global strategies gonna work. 390 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:22,680 Speaker 1: While we talked about this a couple of days ago, 391 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 1: Netflix raising prices, which normally leads a lot of people 392 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:29,240 Speaker 1: to cancel their subscriptions, but the feeling seems to be 393 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,399 Speaker 1: that they will add more people around the world than 394 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:36,120 Speaker 1: they lose in the United States. Here's the headline for 395 00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 1: a sentence from Rich Greenfield bt i G. We're now 396 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 1: forecasting nearly twenty million net streaming sub ads this year. 397 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 1: That's an increase. We still believe Netflix can reach five 398 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:52,200 Speaker 1: billion subads domestically this year. Is John Tucker's family watches 399 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:56,440 Speaker 1: fourteen movies on a given weekend. May I say that 400 00:21:56,480 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 1: I just yesterday cut the cable and love it? Yeah? 401 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:06,240 Speaker 1: I don't want Do you want Netflix and can get it? Yeah? 402 00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,880 Speaker 1: I just you know, I've been just streaming stuff. I'm 403 00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:12,480 Speaker 1: a big geek with PBS specials. That's sort of so forth. 404 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,400 Speaker 1: So it's fascinating to me where we're going. Rich Greenfield 405 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,800 Speaker 1: optimistic on Netflix. We'll have to get him on with 406 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 1: bt i G. Thanks to Mark Sandy on the American economy, 407 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:26,439 Speaker 1: retail little soggy futures go up twelve, up ten. Another 408 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:28,280 Speaker 1: hour of Bloomberg surveillance