WEBVTT - NFL Week 15 Picks & Best Bets + Against the Spread Selections (Ep. 406) 0:00:01.080 --> 0:00:03.280 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.320 --> 0:00:05.680 your bets. It is me Joey P. Joe P's a PN. 0:00:05.680 --> 0:00:08.840 It's week fifteen in the NFL. We continue to cook 0:00:08.880 --> 0:00:11.280 here over at Betting Pros to help us look through 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:14.239 the favorite lines. The favorite sides for this week in 0:00:14.280 --> 0:00:18.280 the NFL, of course, is Andrew Erickson, the undertaker himself, 0:00:18.640 --> 0:00:21.320 and of course our good pal Scott Bogman, our man 0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:24.720 about town when it comes to bowl season. By the way, Bogs, 0:00:24.760 --> 0:00:26.560 how are you managing all the bowls this year in 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:29.120 the college football space? How many have you bet on 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:29.560 so far? 0:00:30.520 --> 0:00:33.040 You know, just a couple. I like to do them 0:00:33.080 --> 0:00:35.960 as they come up. I mean, he can't. I find 0:00:36.000 --> 0:00:39.919 it hard to bet this far out because of the 0:00:39.960 --> 0:00:42.960 transfer portal and the opt outs and all that stuff. 0:00:42.960 --> 0:00:44.800 So I like to get a little closer to kickoff. 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:47.400 So just a couple for this weekend, A couple for 0:00:47.440 --> 0:00:48.840 this week A couple of tickets. Yeah. 0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:51.440 Now the real question is Andrew Erickson. I know that 0:00:51.479 --> 0:00:53.800 you will be following some of the college football content 0:00:53.840 --> 0:00:56.040 here on the channel. I know throughout the year you've 0:00:56.040 --> 0:00:58.600 placed some of those bets. Anything already popping for you 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:01.000 in bowl season. I know we're talking in college on 0:01:01.000 --> 0:01:02.360 the NFL show, but still it's fun. 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:02.920 It's football. 0:01:03.520 --> 0:01:03.800 I mean. 0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:06.920 The only things I have tickets for are Michigan to 0:01:07.000 --> 0:01:09.959 win the National Championship. I also have a ticket on 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:13.120 Texas because I had a ticket on Oklahoma State do 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:15.400 win the Big twelve, so I hedged against that in Texas. 0:01:15.520 --> 0:01:18.119 So I got Texas and Michigan. So we'll see where 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:19.440 that plays out. 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:22.200 Beautiful when hedging pays off, you gotta love it, everybody, 0:01:22.200 --> 0:01:23.800 all right now, if you want a chance to win 0:01:23.840 --> 0:01:25.920 a one year free premium upgrade to Betting Pros, the 0:01:25.959 --> 0:01:28.959 best betting tools on the planet, drop your comments below, 0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:31.120 subscribe to the YouTube channel. That's it, That's all you 0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:33.880 gotta do. We gave away one last week to our 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:36.759 good pal Curtis so Curtis can graduate the big winner, 0:01:36.800 --> 0:01:39.160 Curtis Brooks. But we want to give one to you. 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:41.440 So drop your comments below. Tell us what you're in 0:01:41.480 --> 0:01:43.280 on this week, your favorite picks of the week. You 0:01:43.360 --> 0:01:45.400 just might win yourself a free premium upgrade which is 0:01:45.400 --> 0:01:47.560 going to pay for itself. Well, it's free, so it 0:01:47.600 --> 0:01:49.720 already pays for itself. But it's gonna be a nice thing, 0:01:50.120 --> 0:01:52.600 trust me, nice things for everybody. That's what the holidays 0:01:52.600 --> 0:01:55.320 are all about. Gentlemen. Let's kick things off here, Scott, Bobby, 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:57.200 and why don't you take us through your first pick 0:01:57.200 --> 0:01:58.440 of the week for Week fifteen. 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:02.840 Let's lay the points for Atlanta minus three at Carolina. 0:02:02.920 --> 0:02:05.160 And these are two of the worst teams against the 0:02:05.200 --> 0:02:07.680 spread in the league, but they did play in Week one. 0:02:08.120 --> 0:02:11.040 That was one of only four games that the Falcons 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:14.079 have covered this season, and look, just in this game. 0:02:14.120 --> 0:02:16.560 They have way more to play for after dropping that 0:02:16.600 --> 0:02:20.040 game against Tampa at home last week. And while they 0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:22.840 may have lost, they showed an ability to move the 0:02:22.840 --> 0:02:25.800 ball vertically, as Ritter had three hundred and forty seven yards, 0:02:25.880 --> 0:02:29.200 a season high and only his second game with forty 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:32.359 or more attempts. I wouldn't usually care because the Bucks 0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:35.800 defense is a mess. Right, So it's like, Okay, well, 0:02:36.080 --> 0:02:39.560 Atlanta threw, but it was against Tampa Bay. But it's 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:41.639 not like Carolina is in any better. They've been bad 0:02:41.680 --> 0:02:44.840 all year. The Panthers' stats against the runner, okay, but 0:02:45.240 --> 0:02:47.400 they grade out twenty eighth against the run on PFF 0:02:47.480 --> 0:02:50.200 twenty ninth in tackling could be a big day for 0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:52.720 Beijon and Algier, and the fact that they moved the 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:56.040 ball vertically last week makes me think this team on 0:02:56.160 --> 0:02:58.079 offense is going to put up some points against his 0:02:58.160 --> 0:03:01.000 bad Carolina d And I just don't Carolina can score. 0:03:01.160 --> 0:03:05.400 So give me the incentive for the Carolina other wanted 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:07.400 to win this game, but not only that, No. 0:03:07.440 --> 0:03:09.240 Shit, they want to win. But there's no incentive for 0:03:09.280 --> 0:03:11.760 me to bet Carolina on an upset because I'm only 0:03:11.760 --> 0:03:13.600 getting plus one fifteen. That's the best number right now 0:03:13.639 --> 0:03:15.639 betting Groys I can get, you know, give me two 0:03:15.639 --> 0:03:17.840 to one, three to one even now. I'm like, all right, well, 0:03:17.840 --> 0:03:19.239 maybe I'll make some money on this. But this was 0:03:19.240 --> 0:03:21.280 actually number ten on my list this week for the 0:03:22.080 --> 0:03:22.919 same last week. 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:25.040 They're not going to give you the odds this week. 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:26.520 You know what it is? Box, I feel like I 0:03:26.560 --> 0:03:28.160 look at it and I say to myself, look, do 0:03:28.200 --> 0:03:30.680 I want to copy and paste Ritter's performance? No from 0:03:30.800 --> 0:03:32.720 last week, especially on the road. But at the same time, 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:34.200 do I think they can win this game by three 0:03:34.200 --> 0:03:36.760 against Caroline Panthers. I think the answer is yes. It's 0:03:36.840 --> 0:03:40.480 kind of unspectacular, unsexy but it makes a lot of sense. 0:03:40.600 --> 0:03:42.040 You just kind of take the money and run with 0:03:42.080 --> 0:03:45.440 this one. Speaking of taking the runny and running, Andrew Rickson, 0:03:45.480 --> 0:03:47.080 what are you taking this week? In Week fifteen? 0:03:47.720 --> 0:03:49.800 Give me the Giants? Giants too. 0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:52.000 This week? 0:03:52.040 --> 0:03:54.520 Boys again, if you don't want to go on the 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:57.200 money line, that's fine, but Giants plus six. Like I 0:03:57.960 --> 0:04:02.400 hate the Saints so much, Like this team is so overrated, 0:04:02.480 --> 0:04:05.760 and this is my special stat right, the Saints have 0:04:05.920 --> 0:04:09.920 covered three games this year. Tommy DeVito has covered three 0:04:09.960 --> 0:04:13.839 games in his last three starts. Like, the Saints are 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:16.599 just one of these teams. They've benefited from the easy 0:04:16.600 --> 0:04:19.159 schedule they've had all year long, and yet they've taken 0:04:19.360 --> 0:04:21.960 zero advantage of it. With Derek Carr, let's see what 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:23.840 they've done. They're on a seven game streak of fin 0:04:23.960 --> 0:04:25.680 to cover the spread after they've won a game, so 0:04:25.680 --> 0:04:27.920 they're a good team to bet on against after they win. 0:04:28.240 --> 0:04:29.880 They failed to cover the spread in seven of the 0:04:30.000 --> 0:04:32.839 last home games, seven to the last eight home games, 0:04:32.960 --> 0:04:35.320 so they don't there's no home field advantage for them 0:04:35.320 --> 0:04:38.520 playing in New Orleans. They fail to cover the spread 0:04:38.520 --> 0:04:41.120 in eleven of the last thirteen games as a favorite, Like, 0:04:41.440 --> 0:04:44.360 this team is so bad all over round in terms 0:04:44.400 --> 0:04:47.800 of the expectation that they come out with. So I've 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:49.360 been waiting for them to just take on a team 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:51.360 that not named the Panthers where I can feel somewhat 0:04:51.360 --> 0:04:54.400 confident about like backing them against the Saints. And the 0:04:54.440 --> 0:04:58.760 Saints barely covered last week against the Carolina Panthers, one 0:04:58.760 --> 0:05:00.159 of the two teams they've actually give been a to 0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:04.560 cover against this season. So for me looking at more 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:08.039 of a matchup kind of based analysis, the Saints have 0:05:08.080 --> 0:05:09.640 been really bad against the run of the last couple 0:05:09.640 --> 0:05:11.479 of weeks, allowing the most rushing cards to running backs 0:05:11.480 --> 0:05:13.680 over the last four weeks. Who is the Giants best 0:05:13.680 --> 0:05:16.560 player on offense, Sae Kwon Barkley. They are able to 0:05:16.640 --> 0:05:19.000 run the football against the New Orleans Saints defense. And 0:05:19.040 --> 0:05:20.799 what's the other thing. The Saints are really bad against 0:05:21.240 --> 0:05:24.760 mobile quarterbacks. What do we see Tommy DeVito do last week? 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:28.080 Ran the ball with his legs. So not only are 0:05:28.080 --> 0:05:30.479 all the trends pointing to fading the Saints, but the 0:05:30.520 --> 0:05:33.400 matchup on paper from a football standpoint is that the 0:05:33.440 --> 0:05:36.719 Giants offense can actually move the ball against this defense, 0:05:36.839 --> 0:05:38.440 and when it comes to the Giants defense against the 0:05:38.480 --> 0:05:41.960 Saints offense. I have zero fear whatsoever of Derek Carr, 0:05:41.960 --> 0:05:44.840 and we've seen this Giants defense give better offenses fits 0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:47.920 at times this season. Blitz heavy. I think Derek Carr 0:05:47.960 --> 0:05:50.360 is gonna crumble. Look, I think Giants plus six is 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:52.520 the best bet. But Giants on the money line, I 0:05:52.560 --> 0:05:54.839 also don't. I've already bet it, so just be transparent. 0:05:55.200 --> 0:05:58.440 No, that's as if I and another one from my 0:05:58.560 --> 0:06:00.960 top ten bets. Somebody's been watching videos. I feel like 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:02.839 I feel like the guys are watching the videos. 0:06:02.880 --> 0:06:05.479 A little bit here, but just copy. 0:06:06.440 --> 0:06:06.560 Here. 0:06:07.040 --> 0:06:07.719 Listen, bro. 0:06:09.120 --> 0:06:10.880 Joe picked his cousin to win a game. 0:06:12.360 --> 0:06:13.960 Pick your family, and then what are you gonna do? 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:18.200 What are you gonna look? Come on, by the way, 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:22.080 my Tommy DeVito TikTok about his agent viral. It's all 0:06:22.160 --> 0:06:24.919 up there, thousands and thousands of views. It's very funny. 0:06:25.000 --> 0:06:27.239 Go check it out. Fantasy pro Joe on the TikTok. 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:30.360 But seriously, like I'm with you, erics one hundred, Like, 0:06:30.640 --> 0:06:33.000 do I think that the Saints, you know, are gonna 0:06:33.000 --> 0:06:34.120 win this game? Outright? 0:06:34.160 --> 0:06:34.200 No? 0:06:34.400 --> 0:06:36.720 I really don't. I mean the Giants on the money 0:06:36.760 --> 0:06:38.680 line plus two twenty five is very tempting, but I 0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:40.520 think that's six is just like a lock and give it. 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:44.279 Saints were out gained by one hundred yards against the 0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:45.160 Panthers last week. 0:06:45.200 --> 0:06:47.680 Therek Carr. I know they're not good less than one 0:06:47.760 --> 0:06:49.360 hundred yards before the fourth quarter. 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:51.279 I believe Jamis has not come in like, I know 0:06:51.320 --> 0:06:53.599 he's gonna turn the ball over, but let him law 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:55.200 down field for God's sake. 0:06:55.240 --> 0:06:56.360 Come on, and. 0:06:56.320 --> 0:06:58.440 Bogin's gonna laugh. But you know, Bogs. A couple years ago, 0:06:58.480 --> 0:07:00.680 you remember, I was like, I like this Veto kid 0:07:00.760 --> 0:07:02.919 over in Syracuse. I think he's a pretty good quarterback, 0:07:02.920 --> 0:07:04.480 and he's like, shut up, you would he You just 0:07:04.560 --> 0:07:06.440 like him because his name ends in a vowel. 0:07:06.760 --> 0:07:06.920 Yeah. 0:07:07.320 --> 0:07:09.960 Here he is playing for the Giants doing things. Is 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:14.440 there a quarterback controversy in New York? Boggs, No, Daniel 0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:15.440 Jones is still your dude. 0:07:15.480 --> 0:07:17.280 I don't think they have a quarterbacks though. 0:07:17.720 --> 0:07:20.960 Yeah, yeah, I think I think Erickson is more right 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:23.080 than that. But they pay They paid Danny dimes. 0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:25.200 They're not gonna not They're not gonna let Tommy DeVito 0:07:26.000 --> 0:07:28.480 uh take this job. 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:30.640 Ye, quarterbacks maybe somebody's knocking. 0:07:30.480 --> 0:07:32.720 To the door for Johnson to change his last name 0:07:32.760 --> 0:07:35.480 to DeVito and then he'll get the gianty DeVito. 0:07:36.320 --> 0:07:39.600 Right there you go. It's all he needs, all right, Boggs, 0:07:39.720 --> 0:07:42.120 Let's go back to you for another pick for week fifteen. 0:07:42.160 --> 0:07:42.560 What do you have? 0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:47.720 Well, look, I can eat crow when it's uh, when 0:07:47.720 --> 0:07:49.080 it's right in front of me, and I have to. 0:07:50.000 --> 0:07:54.080 And we had the Dolphins uh minus the points last week. 0:07:54.120 --> 0:07:54.560 I did. 0:07:54.960 --> 0:07:58.240 And look in the fourth quarter they got to a 0:07:58.320 --> 0:08:00.840 fourteen point or a thirteen point lead in this game. 0:08:00.880 --> 0:08:03.840 Fourteen point lead because Tennessee went for two after they 0:08:03.840 --> 0:08:06.640 scored that first one. But Will Levis turned it on 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:11.040 and finally showed what he can do. And this was 0:08:11.040 --> 0:08:14.680 the Will Levis that we saw in twenty twenty one 0:08:15.120 --> 0:08:18.640 with Kentucky and was pushing him to be a very 0:08:18.720 --> 0:08:21.440 high draft pick in the draft. Then in twenty twenty 0:08:21.440 --> 0:08:24.200 two he kind of hid behind his line, he opted 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:27.080 out of some games. He just didn't look the same 0:08:27.560 --> 0:08:30.640 and he hasn't looked the same since until whatever clicked 0:08:30.760 --> 0:08:34.040 correctly in that game against the Dolphins. And they are 0:08:34.080 --> 0:08:38.760 playing with momentum now and Houston, we may not have CJ. 0:08:38.840 --> 0:08:39.240 Stroud. 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:41.560 He's still in proto, so there's a good chance that 0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:44.839 he comes out. But even if he does, the Texans 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:48.480 are still questionable about Nico Collins, who doesn't seem like 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:53.080 he's gonna play. Blake Cashman, Will Anderson and Laramie Tonsell 0:08:53.160 --> 0:08:56.200 and Tavierre Thomas all starters on this team. The Titans 0:08:56.240 --> 0:08:59.000 did also have a lot of guys misspractice yesterday as well, 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:01.240 but they played on Monday, so it's more likely that 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:03.280 you know those guys are going to be able. 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:03.560 To come back. 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:05.920 The Texans had been winning close games. They had a 0:09:05.920 --> 0:09:09.199 gold line stand against Denver to win. They stopped Houston. 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:14.120 They stopped I'm sorry a couple of weeks ago. I 0:09:14.120 --> 0:09:17.120 think it was something I wrote Houston on here. Obviously 0:09:17.160 --> 0:09:19.080 they are Houston, but they saw somebody on a fourth 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:23.680 down late. They kicked to walk off field goals. Sometimes 0:09:23.720 --> 0:09:26.600 I just I'm my own worst enemy. They kicked a 0:09:26.600 --> 0:09:29.600 field goal against since he to walk off and win. 0:09:29.640 --> 0:09:33.400 The Titans can't sustain drives. If they can sustain drives 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:37.480 and pass the ball, Derrick Henry becomes unstoppable. You unlock 0:09:37.640 --> 0:09:40.000 a new Derrick Henry level. If you can pass the 0:09:40.040 --> 0:09:43.760 ball and they're getting the ball to Hopkins, who looks great. Look, man, 0:09:44.200 --> 0:09:46.840 I don't like the Titans. They haven't played well this year. 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:49.760 I think the roster is kind of thin. But Rabel 0:09:49.840 --> 0:09:52.000 is one of the best coaches in the NFL. These 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:55.240 teams are going in an opposite direction of each other 0:09:55.360 --> 0:09:59.000 right now. Houston is, you know, kind of fading down 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:00.560 here in the stretch that they are young team. They're 0:10:00.640 --> 0:10:03.480 very good, but I don't think they're putting it together 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:05.560 right now. So gimme Will Levis and give me the 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:09.160 Titans on a heater, and I think they're gonna win 0:10:09.160 --> 0:10:12.920 this one, possibly going away, especially if CJ doesn't play boys. 0:10:12.960 --> 0:10:16.160 We are three for three so far. This also made 0:10:16.600 --> 0:10:19.400 the best bets. I mean it's look, man, I think 0:10:19.400 --> 0:10:21.240 we're all in lockstet But we know where we are 0:10:21.280 --> 0:10:22.800 at this point. We know it's. 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:25.240 Just Sackson and I watching your videos. 0:10:25.320 --> 0:10:27.880 Well, no, I think we know which teams are you know, 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:30.800 are really here. They're struggling towards the end. I think 0:10:30.840 --> 0:10:33.280 the Houston Texans, I don't want to say they ran 0:10:33.320 --> 0:10:35.120 out of gas a little bit, but it feels like 0:10:35.160 --> 0:10:36.959 they got a little bit exposed when they started to 0:10:37.000 --> 0:10:38.640 face some of the better teams out there a little 0:10:38.640 --> 0:10:39.040 bit as well. 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:40.560 It's not the Cardinals, that's who it was. 0:10:40.600 --> 0:10:42.280 By the way, Yeah, there you go. I knew you'd 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:45.040 find it eventually. I believe in you. Box. Also, don't 0:10:45.080 --> 0:10:47.040 forget as you're trying to track all these games, make 0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:49.160 sure you're downloading the Betting Pros app, especially if you 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:51.520 have iOS. You get three free days of premium. But 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:53.960 we also have that game notifications feature, so you can 0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:56.000 look at all the line alerts and the movements going 0:10:56.040 --> 0:10:58.000 for some of these games. So keep a close eye 0:10:58.000 --> 0:10:59.599 on that because this is one in particular where you 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:01.800 might get at you know, Strout comes back, this line 0:11:01.840 --> 0:11:04.520 could move a little bit. I am not as optimistic 0:11:04.520 --> 0:11:06.440 that he is going to return for this one. We'll see. 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:08.679 The quarterbacks have been getting cleared. I feel like a 0:11:08.679 --> 0:11:10.439 little bit easier than some of the position players. I 0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:13.080 don't want to be tinfoil hot lately, but it's still 0:11:14.160 --> 0:11:16.840 twenty five percent chance, you know, in the same week 0:11:16.880 --> 0:11:19.080 that a guy comes back. We had that statistic earlier 0:11:19.080 --> 0:11:22.400 on another podcast from Fantasy Pros last week. All right, Eric, 0:11:22.400 --> 0:11:24.320 so let's bounce back to you here for week fifteen. 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:25.120 Give me another pick. 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:27.600 Yeah, No, I'm just going to continue to ride the 0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:30.520 Tennessee Titans because guys, they're playing at home. Like if 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:33.120 you guys didn't know this, Like the Titans play better 0:11:33.240 --> 0:11:34.800 at home than they do on the road. 0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:37.600 Four and one overall straight up in New York City. 0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:39.560 They've covered the spread and for the last five home 0:11:39.600 --> 0:11:42.079 games at Nissan Stadium, and the only time I failed 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:44.760 to cover was their overtime loss against the Colts, which 0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:48.160 they were winning by three points in overtime. So essentially 0:11:48.200 --> 0:11:50.240 they've been in every single game to cover the spread 0:11:50.480 --> 0:11:54.040 while playing in Tennessee. Their top ten scoring offense at home. 0:11:55.440 --> 0:11:59.079 So again, I think that the Titans are in a 0:11:59.120 --> 0:12:02.760 position where they've been profitable to back at home. And 0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:04.880 you look at the Texans, they've just been a team 0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:07.520 that's been overvalued by the market all year long. Yeah, 0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:09.280 Like once the Stroud like had a big game, it 0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:11.000 was like everyone was obsessed with c J. Stroud is 0:12:11.040 --> 0:12:13.400 backing CJ. Stroud because as good as the season they've 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:16.200 had that they've had, there's six and five against the spread, 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:17.959 Like they haven't really been like this team. It's like, 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:20.080 oh yeah, they always cover you know they're really good 0:12:20.080 --> 0:12:22.120 as underdogs or his favorites like that not has not 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:24.120 been the case. So I really think the move now 0:12:24.200 --> 0:12:27.120 is to wait, hope that Stroud does clear and then 0:12:27.160 --> 0:12:28.760 take the better number on the Titans, because if that's 0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:30.360 ultimately how the lines are going to move, just based 0:12:30.400 --> 0:12:33.360 on what we've seen from the market, the market loves Stroud, 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:35.160 So if Stroud is gonna play in this game, you're 0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:37.400 gonna see money come in on the Texans, even though 0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:39.000 I would be going in the other direction. 0:12:40.120 --> 0:12:42.839 Gonna be in those Powder Blues too. That's it's weird 0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:45.400 to me that they wear the oilers unis to play 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:47.040 the Texans when they're in. 0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:49.960 It's like rubbing salt in the wound. 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:52.760 Yeah, it's kind of obnoxious. I do love those old 0:12:53.240 --> 0:12:55.520 Powder b lose though they love the Gold Blues. I 0:12:55.600 --> 0:12:58.920 mean the days of Heywood, Jefferies and Warren Moon. Those 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:01.440 are fun times back in childhood. Do you know that 0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:02.640 is Eric's in? 0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:03.480 No? 0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:08.559 Okay, all right, let's continue on here. J Let's go 0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:10.680 back to Scott Bobin for another pick. And I know 0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:13.240 this one probably rubbs you the wrong way, but you 0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:15.280 can't and I right now the Baltimore Ravens are kind 0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:19.199 of arguably the class of the AFC. I'm gonna say 0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:22.120 arguably in air quotes. But certainly it seems like no 0:13:22.160 --> 0:13:23.240 one else wants to step up. 0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:25.680 You know what I like more than I hate the 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:28.680 Ravens Money. I like money. 0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:32.280 I was gonna say hi, but yeah, well look at 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:35.839 me also, yeah, so absolutely I do. 0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:36.400 I do like you. 0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:39.760 You're a pie guy with the end. You know, hate 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:40.760 guy doesn't matter. 0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:43.840 Look at me, Joe. I'm both come on, you know, 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:44.520 I'm both. 0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:47.120 You, but I if I have if they're both there, 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:48.960 I'm going to cake, especially the chocolate. 0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:51.120 But these are you know, when I think I'm with you. 0:13:51.160 --> 0:13:53.720 So unless it's key Lime Pie, then key Li Pie wins. 0:13:53.840 --> 0:13:56.559 But look, I'm not gonna hate you over the head. 0:13:56.559 --> 0:13:59.960 With stats, Baltimore minus three against Jacksonville. Jacksonville is miss 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:03.160 through a bowl right now. They cannot stop any sort 0:14:03.200 --> 0:14:06.600 of a passing game, even one that is a little 0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:09.760 weaker than it usually is without Mark Andrews. We saw 0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:12.240 Lamar toss the ball all over the field last week. 0:14:13.040 --> 0:14:16.080 Jacksonville is bad. They're going in the wrong direction. They 0:14:16.080 --> 0:14:18.520 can't put up any rushing yards right now, so you're 0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:23.040 gonna go to a gimpie Trevor Lawrence and the Ravens 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:25.040 are gonna run his ass down. I don't think this 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:27.800 is gonna be a very fun game at all for Jacksonville. 0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:30.280 I think Baltimore is going to wipe them out. I 0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:32.240 think Jacksonville is going in the wrong direction right now. 0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:34.520 I do think this team is good, but I think 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:38.080 that their coverage is so bad that it doesn't matter 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:40.360 that Josh Allen has thirteen and a half sacks. It 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:43.120 doesn't matter that they're getting constant pressure on the quarterback, 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:46.400 especially against a guy like Lamar who can scramble out 0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:48.680 of those sacks and run around. I think this is 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:52.560 a huge mismatch defensively for the Jaguars, and not many 0:14:52.560 --> 0:14:55.160 teams are scoring against Baltimore right now. So I don't 0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:57.160 know why this line is only three. It must be 0:14:57.160 --> 0:15:00.560 because it's in Jacksonville. I think Baltimore runs. 0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:03.280 Away because it's in Jacksonville, but also because at home 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:05.240 last week the Rams took them to overtime, and I 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:06.920 don't think a lot of people saw that coming. So 0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:10.160 people get and understandably, so people get a little cautious 0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:12.600 when it comes to the Ravens, whether they believe wholeheartedly. 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:15.080 I would actually be looking at the Jags on this 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:17.800 side of the game, but they're not at full strength. 0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:19.840 Lawrence is not a full strength and don't have Kirk them. 0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:21.280 It's in some other pieces. 0:15:21.560 --> 0:15:26.080 The running game has been one dimensional and that's a 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:27.720 good secondary for Baltimore. 0:15:27.840 --> 0:15:28.520 So he's had. 0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:30.440 Health issues too. It's just it's a bad spot. You 0:15:30.480 --> 0:15:32.600 I said, normally this would be that perfect. You know, 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:34.960 Ravens are favored by three. Let's go take the Jags 0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:37.160 here when they go play in Jacksonville, because you know 0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:39.760 we've seen that happen to the Ravens before many times. 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:41.120 But in this one, I'm with you. 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:43.840 I think on that run, the Ravens aren't a dominant team. 0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:46.560 I'll say that, but I do think they're the best team. 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:48.000 Is there a dominant team in the AFC? 0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:48.760 I don't think there is. 0:15:50.120 --> 0:15:51.200 Rams are a dominant team. 0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:54.160 The Ravens aren't because they look the Rams took them 0:15:54.160 --> 0:15:56.120 to overtime last week. That's why, like, the Rams come 0:15:56.120 --> 0:16:00.359 into town and I respect Matthew Staffords in all but American. 0:16:00.640 --> 0:16:04.960 And then you watch the Ravens beat themselves against the Steelers. 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:11.520 Let's okay there, okay, guy dominant. They beat themselves, but 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:12.600 the good teams don't do that. 0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:15.720 So the good teams show up against the other good teams, 0:16:15.720 --> 0:16:16.760 which the Ravens always do. 0:16:17.280 --> 0:16:19.640 Yeah, well, Jacks aren't a good team. So we'll see. 0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:22.760 Are you here? We are we in disagreement. 0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:25.280 I mean the Jaguars have a good record, so that 0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:27.080 they're a good team. In my eyes, they are. 0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:29.000 They are a good team, but the way that secondary 0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:30.680 has been playing is miserable right now. 0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:32.040 I don't think they can stop anybody. 0:16:32.960 --> 0:16:35.920 Lamar Jackson overs Yeah, Erickson. 0:16:35.960 --> 0:16:37.720 I think it's only one dominant team in football right now. 0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:39.400 I think it's the forty nine ers, to be honest 0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:41.520 with you, like I think, and that's why I put 0:16:41.560 --> 0:16:43.080 money in and I talked about it again on the 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:44.760 video this week. I'm like, look, now is the time 0:16:44.800 --> 0:16:46.440 to go win on the forty nine ers. It's it's 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:48.080 it's as good as it's gonna get, probably if they 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:49.520 keep winning games and they have that one seed and 0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:50.840 they have the two home games to get to the 0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:54.000 super Bowl. Like, I don't see anybody the NFC beating 0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:56.720 them in that scenario, which is the scenario that it's 0:16:56.800 --> 0:16:59.720 trending towards that, and then on the flip side, I 0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:03.000