Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets. It is me Joey P. Joe P's a PN.
Speaker 1: It's week fifteen in the NFL. We continue to cook
Speaker 1: here over at Betting Pros to help us look through
Speaker 1: the favorite lines. The favorite sides for this week in
Speaker 1: the NFL, of course, is Andrew Erickson, the undertaker himself,
Speaker 1: and of course our good pal Scott Bogman, our man
Speaker 1: about town when it comes to bowl season. By the way, Bogs,
Speaker 1: how are you managing all the bowls this year in
Speaker 1: the college football space? How many have you bet on
Speaker 1: so far?
Speaker 2: You know, just a couple. I like to do them
Speaker 2: as they come up. I mean, he can't. I find
Speaker 2: it hard to bet this far out because of the
Speaker 2: transfer portal and the opt outs and all that stuff.
Speaker 3: So I like to get a little closer to kickoff.
Speaker 3: So just a couple for this weekend, A couple for
Speaker 3: this week A couple of tickets. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Now the real question is Andrew Erickson. I know that
Speaker 1: you will be following some of the college football content
Speaker 1: here on the channel. I know throughout the year you've
Speaker 1: placed some of those bets. Anything already popping for you
Speaker 1: in bowl season. I know we're talking in college on
Speaker 1: the NFL show, but still it's fun.
Speaker 3: It's football.
Speaker 4: I mean.
Speaker 5: The only things I have tickets for are Michigan to
Speaker 5: win the National Championship. I also have a ticket on
Speaker 5: Texas because I had a ticket on Oklahoma State do
Speaker 5: win the Big twelve, so I hedged against that in Texas.
Speaker 5: So I got Texas and Michigan. So we'll see where
Speaker 5: that plays out.
Speaker 1: Beautiful when hedging pays off, you gotta love it, everybody,
Speaker 1: all right now, if you want a chance to win
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Speaker 1: gotta do. We gave away one last week to our
Speaker 1: good pal Curtis so Curtis can graduate the big winner,
Speaker 1: Curtis Brooks. But we want to give one to you.
Speaker 1: So drop your comments below. Tell us what you're in
Speaker 1: on this week, your favorite picks of the week. You
Speaker 1: just might win yourself a free premium upgrade which is
Speaker 1: going to pay for itself. Well, it's free, so it
Speaker 1: already pays for itself. But it's gonna be a nice thing,
Speaker 1: trust me, nice things for everybody. That's what the holidays
Speaker 1: are all about. Gentlemen. Let's kick things off here, Scott, Bobby,
Speaker 1: and why don't you take us through your first pick
Speaker 1: of the week for Week fifteen.
Speaker 2: Let's lay the points for Atlanta minus three at Carolina.
Speaker 2: And these are two of the worst teams against the
Speaker 2: spread in the league, but they did play in Week one.
Speaker 2: That was one of only four games that the Falcons
Speaker 2: have covered this season, and look, just in this game.
Speaker 2: They have way more to play for after dropping that
Speaker 2: game against Tampa at home last week. And while they
Speaker 2: may have lost, they showed an ability to move the
Speaker 2: ball vertically, as Ritter had three hundred and forty seven yards,
Speaker 2: a season high and only his second game with forty
Speaker 2: or more attempts. I wouldn't usually care because the Bucks
Speaker 2: defense is a mess. Right, So it's like, Okay, well,
Speaker 2: Atlanta threw, but it was against Tampa Bay. But it's
Speaker 2: not like Carolina is in any better. They've been bad
Speaker 2: all year. The Panthers' stats against the runner, okay, but
Speaker 2: they grade out twenty eighth against the run on PFF
Speaker 2: twenty ninth in tackling could be a big day for
Speaker 2: Beijon and Algier, and the fact that they moved the
Speaker 2: ball vertically last week makes me think this team on
Speaker 2: offense is going to put up some points against his
Speaker 2: bad Carolina d And I just don't Carolina can score.
Speaker 2: So give me the incentive for the Carolina other wanted
Speaker 2: to win this game, but not only that, No.
Speaker 1: Shit, they want to win. But there's no incentive for
Speaker 1: me to bet Carolina on an upset because I'm only
Speaker 1: getting plus one fifteen. That's the best number right now
Speaker 1: betting Groys I can get, you know, give me two
Speaker 1: to one, three to one even now. I'm like, all right, well,
Speaker 1: maybe I'll make some money on this. But this was
Speaker 1: actually number ten on my list this week for the
Speaker 1: same last week.
Speaker 3: They're not going to give you the odds this week.
Speaker 1: You know what it is? Box, I feel like I
Speaker 1: look at it and I say to myself, look, do
Speaker 1: I want to copy and paste Ritter's performance? No from
Speaker 1: last week, especially on the road. But at the same time,
Speaker 1: do I think they can win this game by three
Speaker 1: against Caroline Panthers. I think the answer is yes. It's
Speaker 1: kind of unspectacular, unsexy but it makes a lot of sense.
Speaker 1: You just kind of take the money and run with
Speaker 1: this one. Speaking of taking the runny and running, Andrew Rickson,
Speaker 1: what are you taking this week? In Week fifteen?
Speaker 4: Give me the Giants? Giants too.
Speaker 1: This week?
Speaker 5: Boys again, if you don't want to go on the
Speaker 5: money line, that's fine, but Giants plus six. Like I
Speaker 5: hate the Saints so much, Like this team is so overrated,
Speaker 5: and this is my special stat right, the Saints have
Speaker 5: covered three games this year. Tommy DeVito has covered three
Speaker 5: games in his last three starts. Like, the Saints are
Speaker 5: just one of these teams. They've benefited from the easy
Speaker 5: schedule they've had all year long, and yet they've taken
Speaker 5: zero advantage of it. With Derek Carr, let's see what
Speaker 5: they've done. They're on a seven game streak of fin
Speaker 5: to cover the spread after they've won a game, so
Speaker 5: they're a good team to bet on against after they win.
Speaker 5: They failed to cover the spread in seven of the
Speaker 5: last home games, seven to the last eight home games,
Speaker 5: so they don't there's no home field advantage for them
Speaker 5: playing in New Orleans. They fail to cover the spread
Speaker 5: in eleven of the last thirteen games as a favorite, Like,
Speaker 5: this team is so bad all over round in terms
Speaker 5: of the expectation that they come out with. So I've
Speaker 5: been waiting for them to just take on a team
Speaker 5: that not named the Panthers where I can feel somewhat
Speaker 5: confident about like backing them against the Saints. And the
Speaker 5: Saints barely covered last week against the Carolina Panthers, one
Speaker 5: of the two teams they've actually give been a to
Speaker 5: cover against this season. So for me looking at more
Speaker 5: of a matchup kind of based analysis, the Saints have
Speaker 5: been really bad against the run of the last couple
Speaker 5: of weeks, allowing the most rushing cards to running backs
Speaker 5: over the last four weeks. Who is the Giants best
Speaker 5: player on offense, Sae Kwon Barkley. They are able to
Speaker 5: run the football against the New Orleans Saints defense. And
Speaker 5: what's the other thing. The Saints are really bad against
Speaker 5: mobile quarterbacks. What do we see Tommy DeVito do last week?
Speaker 5: Ran the ball with his legs. So not only are
Speaker 5: all the trends pointing to fading the Saints, but the
Speaker 5: matchup on paper from a football standpoint is that the
Speaker 5: Giants offense can actually move the ball against this defense,
Speaker 5: and when it comes to the Giants defense against the
Speaker 5: Saints offense. I have zero fear whatsoever of Derek Carr,
Speaker 5: and we've seen this Giants defense give better offenses fits
Speaker 5: at times this season. Blitz heavy. I think Derek Carr
Speaker 5: is gonna crumble. Look, I think Giants plus six is
Speaker 5: the best bet. But Giants on the money line, I
Speaker 5: also don't. I've already bet it, so just be transparent.
Speaker 1: No, that's as if I and another one from my
Speaker 1: top ten bets. Somebody's been watching videos. I feel like
Speaker 1: I feel like the guys are watching the videos.
Speaker 4: A little bit here, but just copy.
Speaker 6: Here.
Speaker 1: Listen, bro.
Speaker 3: Joe picked his cousin to win a game.
Speaker 1: Pick your family, and then what are you gonna do?
Speaker 1: What are you gonna look? Come on, by the way,
Speaker 1: my Tommy DeVito TikTok about his agent viral. It's all
Speaker 1: up there, thousands and thousands of views. It's very funny.
Speaker 1: Go check it out. Fantasy pro Joe on the TikTok.
Speaker 1: But seriously, like I'm with you, erics one hundred, Like,
Speaker 1: do I think that the Saints, you know, are gonna
Speaker 1: win this game? Outright?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 1: I really don't. I mean the Giants on the money
Speaker 1: line plus two twenty five is very tempting, but I
Speaker 1: think that's six is just like a lock and give it.
Speaker 5: Saints were out gained by one hundred yards against the
Speaker 5: Panthers last week.
Speaker 4: Therek Carr. I know they're not good less than one
Speaker 4: hundred yards before the fourth quarter.
Speaker 2: I believe Jamis has not come in like, I know
Speaker 2: he's gonna turn the ball over, but let him law
Speaker 2: down field for God's sake.
Speaker 3: Come on, and.
Speaker 1: Bogin's gonna laugh. But you know, Bogs. A couple years ago,
Speaker 1: you remember, I was like, I like this Veto kid
Speaker 1: over in Syracuse. I think he's a pretty good quarterback,
Speaker 1: and he's like, shut up, you would he You just
Speaker 1: like him because his name ends in a vowel.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Here he is playing for the Giants doing things. Is
Speaker 1: there a quarterback controversy in New York? Boggs, No, Daniel
Speaker 1: Jones is still your dude.
Speaker 4: I don't think they have a quarterbacks though.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I think I think Erickson is more right
Speaker 3: than that. But they pay They paid Danny dimes.
Speaker 2: They're not gonna not They're not gonna let Tommy DeVito
Speaker 2: uh take this job.
Speaker 1: Ye, quarterbacks maybe somebody's knocking.
Speaker 5: To the door for Johnson to change his last name
Speaker 5: to DeVito and then he'll get the gianty DeVito.
Speaker 1: Right there you go. It's all he needs, all right, Boggs,
Speaker 1: Let's go back to you for another pick for week fifteen.
Speaker 1: What do you have?
Speaker 2: Well, look, I can eat crow when it's uh, when
Speaker 2: it's right in front of me, and I have to.
Speaker 2: And we had the Dolphins uh minus the points last week.
Speaker 3: I did.
Speaker 2: And look in the fourth quarter they got to a
Speaker 2: fourteen point or a thirteen point lead in this game.
Speaker 2: Fourteen point lead because Tennessee went for two after they
Speaker 2: scored that first one. But Will Levis turned it on
Speaker 2: and finally showed what he can do. And this was
Speaker 2: the Will Levis that we saw in twenty twenty one
Speaker 2: with Kentucky and was pushing him to be a very
Speaker 2: high draft pick in the draft. Then in twenty twenty
Speaker 2: two he kind of hid behind his line, he opted
Speaker 2: out of some games. He just didn't look the same
Speaker 2: and he hasn't looked the same since until whatever clicked
Speaker 2: correctly in that game against the Dolphins. And they are
Speaker 2: playing with momentum now and Houston, we may not have CJ.
Speaker 3: Stroud.
Speaker 2: He's still in proto, so there's a good chance that
Speaker 2: he comes out. But even if he does, the Texans
Speaker 2: are still questionable about Nico Collins, who doesn't seem like
Speaker 2: he's gonna play. Blake Cashman, Will Anderson and Laramie Tonsell
Speaker 2: and Tavierre Thomas all starters on this team. The Titans
Speaker 2: did also have a lot of guys misspractice yesterday as well,
Speaker 2: but they played on Monday, so it's more likely that
Speaker 2: you know those guys are going to be able.
Speaker 3: To come back.
Speaker 2: The Texans had been winning close games. They had a
Speaker 2: gold line stand against Denver to win. They stopped Houston.
Speaker 2: They stopped I'm sorry a couple of weeks ago. I
Speaker 2: think it was something I wrote Houston on here. Obviously
Speaker 2: they are Houston, but they saw somebody on a fourth
Speaker 2: down late. They kicked to walk off field goals. Sometimes
Speaker 2: I just I'm my own worst enemy. They kicked a
Speaker 2: field goal against since he to walk off and win.
Speaker 2: The Titans can't sustain drives. If they can sustain drives
Speaker 2: and pass the ball, Derrick Henry becomes unstoppable. You unlock
Speaker 2: a new Derrick Henry level. If you can pass the
Speaker 2: ball and they're getting the ball to Hopkins, who looks great. Look, man,
Speaker 2: I don't like the Titans. They haven't played well this year.
Speaker 2: I think the roster is kind of thin. But Rabel
Speaker 2: is one of the best coaches in the NFL. These
Speaker 2: teams are going in an opposite direction of each other
Speaker 2: right now. Houston is, you know, kind of fading down
Speaker 2: here in the stretch that they are young team. They're
Speaker 2: very good, but I don't think they're putting it together
Speaker 2: right now. So gimme Will Levis and give me the
Speaker 2: Titans on a heater, and I think they're gonna win
Speaker 2: this one, possibly going away, especially if CJ doesn't play boys.
Speaker 1: We are three for three so far. This also made
Speaker 1: the best bets. I mean it's look, man, I think
Speaker 1: we're all in lockstet But we know where we are
Speaker 1: at this point. We know it's.
Speaker 3: Just Sackson and I watching your videos.
Speaker 1: Well, no, I think we know which teams are you know,
Speaker 1: are really here. They're struggling towards the end. I think
Speaker 1: the Houston Texans, I don't want to say they ran
Speaker 1: out of gas a little bit, but it feels like
Speaker 1: they got a little bit exposed when they started to
Speaker 1: face some of the better teams out there a little
Speaker 1: bit as well.
Speaker 3: It's not the Cardinals, that's who it was.
Speaker 1: By the way, Yeah, there you go. I knew you'd
Speaker 1: find it eventually. I believe in you. Box. Also, don't
Speaker 1: forget as you're trying to track all these games, make
Speaker 1: sure you're downloading the Betting Pros app, especially if you
Speaker 1: have iOS. You get three free days of premium. But
Speaker 1: we also have that game notifications feature, so you can
Speaker 1: look at all the line alerts and the movements going
Speaker 1: for some of these games. So keep a close eye
Speaker 1: on that because this is one in particular where you
Speaker 1: might get at you know, Strout comes back, this line
Speaker 1: could move a little bit. I am not as optimistic
Speaker 1: that he is going to return for this one. We'll see.
Speaker 1: The quarterbacks have been getting cleared. I feel like a
Speaker 1: little bit easier than some of the position players. I
Speaker 1: don't want to be tinfoil hot lately, but it's still
Speaker 1: twenty five percent chance, you know, in the same week
Speaker 1: that a guy comes back. We had that statistic earlier
Speaker 1: on another podcast from Fantasy Pros last week. All right, Eric,
Speaker 1: so let's bounce back to you here for week fifteen.
Speaker 1: Give me another pick.
Speaker 5: Yeah, No, I'm just going to continue to ride the
Speaker 5: Tennessee Titans because guys, they're playing at home. Like if
Speaker 5: you guys didn't know this, Like the Titans play better
Speaker 5: at home than they do on the road.
Speaker 4: Four and one overall straight up in New York City.
Speaker 5: They've covered the spread and for the last five home
Speaker 5: games at Nissan Stadium, and the only time I failed
Speaker 5: to cover was their overtime loss against the Colts, which
Speaker 5: they were winning by three points in overtime. So essentially
Speaker 5: they've been in every single game to cover the spread
Speaker 5: while playing in Tennessee. Their top ten scoring offense at home.
Speaker 5: So again, I think that the Titans are in a
Speaker 5: position where they've been profitable to back at home. And
Speaker 5: you look at the Texans, they've just been a team
Speaker 5: that's been overvalued by the market all year long. Yeah,
Speaker 5: Like once the Stroud like had a big game, it
Speaker 5: was like everyone was obsessed with c J. Stroud is
Speaker 5: backing CJ. Stroud because as good as the season they've
Speaker 5: had that they've had, there's six and five against the spread,
Speaker 5: Like they haven't really been like this team. It's like,
Speaker 5: oh yeah, they always cover you know they're really good
Speaker 5: as underdogs or his favorites like that not has not
Speaker 5: been the case. So I really think the move now
Speaker 5: is to wait, hope that Stroud does clear and then
Speaker 5: take the better number on the Titans, because if that's
Speaker 5: ultimately how the lines are going to move, just based
Speaker 5: on what we've seen from the market, the market loves Stroud,
Speaker 5: So if Stroud is gonna play in this game, you're
Speaker 5: gonna see money come in on the Texans, even though
Speaker 5: I would be going in the other direction.
Speaker 2: Gonna be in those Powder Blues too. That's it's weird
Speaker 2: to me that they wear the oilers unis to play
Speaker 2: the Texans when they're in.
Speaker 4: It's like rubbing salt in the wound.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's kind of obnoxious. I do love those old
Speaker 1: Powder b lose though they love the Gold Blues. I
Speaker 1: mean the days of Heywood, Jefferies and Warren Moon. Those
Speaker 1: are fun times back in childhood. Do you know that
Speaker 1: is Eric's in?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, let's continue on here. J Let's go
Speaker 1: back to Scott Bobin for another pick. And I know
Speaker 1: this one probably rubbs you the wrong way, but you
Speaker 1: can't and I right now the Baltimore Ravens are kind
Speaker 1: of arguably the class of the AFC. I'm gonna say
Speaker 1: arguably in air quotes. But certainly it seems like no
Speaker 1: one else wants to step up.
Speaker 3: You know what I like more than I hate the
Speaker 3: Ravens Money. I like money.
Speaker 2: I was gonna say hi, but yeah, well look at
Speaker 2: me also, yeah, so absolutely I do.
Speaker 3: I do like you.
Speaker 1: You're a pie guy with the end. You know, hate
Speaker 1: guy doesn't matter.
Speaker 3: Look at me, Joe. I'm both come on, you know,
Speaker 3: I'm both.
Speaker 1: You, but I if I have if they're both there,
Speaker 1: I'm going to cake, especially the chocolate.
Speaker 2: But these are you know, when I think I'm with you.
Speaker 2: So unless it's key Lime Pie, then key Li Pie wins.
Speaker 2: But look, I'm not gonna hate you over the head.
Speaker 2: With stats, Baltimore minus three against Jacksonville. Jacksonville is miss
Speaker 2: through a bowl right now. They cannot stop any sort
Speaker 2: of a passing game, even one that is a little
Speaker 2: weaker than it usually is without Mark Andrews. We saw
Speaker 2: Lamar toss the ball all over the field last week.
Speaker 2: Jacksonville is bad. They're going in the wrong direction. They
Speaker 2: can't put up any rushing yards right now, so you're
Speaker 2: gonna go to a gimpie Trevor Lawrence and the Ravens
Speaker 2: are gonna run his ass down. I don't think this
Speaker 2: is gonna be a very fun game at all for Jacksonville.
Speaker 2: I think Baltimore is going to wipe them out. I
Speaker 2: think Jacksonville is going in the wrong direction right now.
Speaker 2: I do think this team is good, but I think
Speaker 2: that their coverage is so bad that it doesn't matter
Speaker 2: that Josh Allen has thirteen and a half sacks. It
Speaker 2: doesn't matter that they're getting constant pressure on the quarterback,
Speaker 2: especially against a guy like Lamar who can scramble out
Speaker 2: of those sacks and run around. I think this is
Speaker 2: a huge mismatch defensively for the Jaguars, and not many
Speaker 2: teams are scoring against Baltimore right now. So I don't
Speaker 2: know why this line is only three. It must be
Speaker 2: because it's in Jacksonville. I think Baltimore runs.
Speaker 1: Away because it's in Jacksonville, but also because at home
Speaker 1: last week the Rams took them to overtime, and I
Speaker 1: don't think a lot of people saw that coming. So
Speaker 1: people get and understandably, so people get a little cautious
Speaker 1: when it comes to the Ravens, whether they believe wholeheartedly.
Speaker 1: I would actually be looking at the Jags on this
Speaker 1: side of the game, but they're not at full strength.
Speaker 1: Lawrence is not a full strength and don't have Kirk them.
Speaker 1: It's in some other pieces.
Speaker 2: The running game has been one dimensional and that's a
Speaker 2: good secondary for Baltimore.
Speaker 3: So he's had.
Speaker 1: Health issues too. It's just it's a bad spot. You
Speaker 1: I said, normally this would be that perfect. You know,
Speaker 1: Ravens are favored by three. Let's go take the Jags
Speaker 1: here when they go play in Jacksonville, because you know
Speaker 1: we've seen that happen to the Ravens before many times.
Speaker 1: But in this one, I'm with you.
Speaker 2: I think on that run, the Ravens aren't a dominant team.
Speaker 2: I'll say that, but I do think they're the best team.
Speaker 1: Is there a dominant team in the AFC?
Speaker 3: I don't think there is.
Speaker 4: Rams are a dominant team.
Speaker 1: The Ravens aren't because they look the Rams took them
Speaker 1: to overtime last week. That's why, like, the Rams come
Speaker 1: into town and I respect Matthew Staffords in all but American.
Speaker 5: And then you watch the Ravens beat themselves against the Steelers.
Speaker 1: Let's okay there, okay, guy dominant. They beat themselves, but
Speaker 1: the good teams don't do that.
Speaker 5: So the good teams show up against the other good teams,
Speaker 5: which the Ravens always do.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, Jacks aren't a good team. So we'll see.
Speaker 3: Are you here? We are we in disagreement.
Speaker 4: I mean the Jaguars have a good record, so that
Speaker 4: they're a good team. In my eyes, they are.
Speaker 2: They are a good team, but the way that secondary
Speaker 2: has been playing is miserable right now.
Speaker 3: I don't think they can stop anybody.
Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson overs Yeah, Erickson.
Speaker 1: I think it's only one dominant team in football right now.
Speaker 1: I think it's the forty nine ers, to be honest
Speaker 1: with you, like I think, and that's why I put
Speaker 1: money in and I talked about it again on the
Speaker 1: video this week. I'm like, look, now is the time
Speaker 1: to go win on the forty nine ers. It's it's
Speaker 1: it's as good as it's gonna get, probably if they
Speaker 1: keep winning games and they have that one seed and
Speaker 1: they have the two home games to get to the
Speaker 1: super Bowl. Like, I don't see anybody the NFC beating
Speaker 1: them in that scenario, which is the scenario that it's
Speaker 1: trending towards that, and then on the flip side, I
Speaker 1: really see a true contender. Maybe the next couple weeks
Speaker 1: somebody will emerge and get hot in the AFC and
Speaker 1: that becomes a very dangerous thing. But whoever that team is,
Speaker 1: not only do they have to be hot, then they
Speaker 1: have to carry it all the way through the playoffs
Speaker 1: and then against the forty nine Ers, which I think
Speaker 1: is a lot to ask. I think it's very different.
Speaker 4: Give me the Ravens.
Speaker 5: Ravens will lose against the forty Nineers of the regular season,
Speaker 5: they'll beat them in the super Bowl.
Speaker 1: The stranger things have happened, all right, Let's get to
Speaker 1: some strange things, because you have some feelings about this
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers game, and Bobby and you might have to
Speaker 1: have ear must for this one.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm taking the taking the Colts minus one and
Speaker 5: a half against the Steelers. They're playing at home. Colts
Speaker 5: have won for the last five games. And I think
Speaker 5: that I noticed the most about the Colts is there
Speaker 5: hundred percent against the spread as a favorite. So I
Speaker 5: was wrongly on them last week as I opened as
Speaker 5: a favorite against the Bengals, and I continue to powd
Speaker 5: my chest for the Colts, and then they became underdogs
Speaker 5: and I should have jumped off the bandwagon, but I
Speaker 5: did not, and that was bad. So not making them
Speaker 5: the same mistake twice because they're still favorites here against
Speaker 5: the Steelers even though TJ. Watt has cleared the concussion protocol.
Speaker 5: The line actually moved after that was announced from mis
Speaker 5: two and a half to minus one and a half,
Speaker 5: which makes sense because what is one of the guys
Speaker 5: that actually does impact a defense in a game's outcome
Speaker 5: because of how impactful he is as a defensive player.
Speaker 5: But I still just like the Colts Moore at home,
Speaker 5: I had four and oh straight up and against the
Speaker 5: spread as a favorite, like Shane Steichen is going to
Speaker 5: run circles around Mike Tomlin. Like from the two coaching perspectives,
Speaker 5: again we talked about it from the Jack or the
Speaker 5: Titans and Texans teams going in opposite directions. This Colts team,
Speaker 5: I think is surging with their coaching staff, with Shane
Speaker 5: Stikeen or Mike Tomlin.
Speaker 4: I think that.
Speaker 5: After losing back to back games against teams with two
Speaker 5: wins like there are question marks there's blame being thrown around.
Speaker 4: The receivers are complaining.
Speaker 5: I just don't like the juju around the Steelers right now,
Speaker 5: and I want to back to the Colts at home.
Speaker 5: So give me Indianapolish bogs.
Speaker 1: You agree with that statement that he just laid out
Speaker 1: there that Shane Steikeen is the superior football coach to
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin.
Speaker 2: I mean, right now, he probably is. I don't think
Speaker 2: it matters, though. I mean, if you're going, if you're
Speaker 2: going with momentum, the Colts have it and the Steelers don't,
Speaker 2: so I completely understand this pick.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: Look, watching the Steelers for forty years, I will tell
Speaker 2: you that this is a Steelers devil magic game where
Speaker 2: for no reason, they get two turnovers, just like they
Speaker 2: did against the Browns earlier this year. They had two
Speaker 2: defensive touchdowns ended up winning that game. I said this
Speaker 2: about the Rams game as well, and they ended up
Speaker 2: winning that. I kind of think this one is one
Speaker 2: where the Steelers, out of nowhere, for no reason, win it.
Speaker 3: It's just dumb.
Speaker 2: It's what happens with this team, and that's why they're
Speaker 2: always over five hundred and at the end of the year.
Speaker 2: People go This team is bad, but they won some
Speaker 2: of these surprising games. This could be one of them.
Speaker 2: You know it should be. At all they look miserable,
Speaker 2: like Ericson just said.
Speaker 1: They just lost two miserables.
Speaker 3: They've been blueprinted.
Speaker 2: The blueprint is throw the ball over the middle against
Speaker 2: them Trey McBride, Hunter Henry and then you have Josh
Speaker 2: Downs plus all the good tight ends with the Colts.
Speaker 2: It seems fairly easy. But I'm telling you Steelers devil Magic.
Speaker 2: We'll see if it works.
Speaker 1: Steelers' best number on betting pros is plus one ten
Speaker 1: over at Caesars. That's the best one I'm seeing on
Speaker 1: the money line. If you're into the Devil Magic Bogs,
Speaker 1: you're into the Devil Magic. Let's talk about San fran Arizona.
Speaker 1: It's a big number. How do you feel about it?
Speaker 2: I mean, is there any way that the Niners don't
Speaker 2: put up thirty five against the Cardinals defense. I don't
Speaker 2: see how they couldn't, you know. So what we're asking, shocked,
Speaker 2: what we're asking in this game is that the Cardinals
Speaker 2: score twice or the Niners score a six touchdown, which
Speaker 2: wouldn't be that surprising. But so let's say the Niners
Speaker 2: put up thirty five, two touchdowns, and since Kyler came back,
Speaker 2: they have scored at least fourteen points in all four
Speaker 2: games they played, and they're averaging just to shade under twenty.
Speaker 2: The Niners are banged up on defense. They had a
Speaker 2: lot of DMPs on Wednesday. Armstead, Green Law, Hardgrave, Shavarious Ward,
Speaker 2: Andrey Thomas, five starters all did not practice, so they're
Speaker 2: probably going to be coming in there at less than
Speaker 2: one hundred percent.
Speaker 3: The Cardinals are dead last and.
Speaker 2: Overall defensive grade on PFF and run grade. They are
Speaker 2: twenty ninth in pass rush, bottom ten in coverage. I
Speaker 2: think the Niners put up at least thirty five. They
Speaker 2: scored thirty or more points in eight of eleven games
Speaker 2: this year, or eight of thirteen games this year, so
Speaker 2: this is a team that is since that bye week.
Speaker 2: They are on a heater Brock party cannot miss. I
Speaker 2: think they're going to roll a bunch of points here.
Speaker 2: We're just asking the Cardinals to put up a couple.
Speaker 2: There's a lot of injuries for the Niners, so I
Speaker 2: think this one is an easy cover. So give me
Speaker 2: the over forty seven and a half in San Francisco
Speaker 2: and Arizona.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I see that number you can get on fandle
Speaker 1: right near minus one ten right now, And I'm with
Speaker 1: you on that one as well. Now, Erickson, you're in
Speaker 1: on this game too, but from a different perspective, what
Speaker 1: is it?
Speaker 2: Well?
Speaker 4: I do like the over as well.
Speaker 5: The Pardners are six and oho towards the over at
Speaker 5: home this season, So all these games are shooting out,
Speaker 5: and it's the potential shootout environment that makes me think, like.
Speaker 4: Twelve and a half points.
Speaker 5: We just saw that the forty nine ers not cover
Speaker 5: a thirteen point spread against the Drew lock led Seahawks
Speaker 5: at home, Like what are we doing here?
Speaker 4: Like this opened up.
Speaker 5: At fourteen and I'm like, guys, it's not Josh Dobbs,
Speaker 5: that's the quarterback.
Speaker 4: It's Kyler Murray. Like fourteen point.
Speaker 5: Dog at home, Like that's ridiculous, Like for a team
Speaker 5: that literally just did not cover double digit spread against
Speaker 5: Drew Locke in the Seattle Seahawks. Like this is a
Speaker 5: divisional game. The Cardinals are coming off of bye week,
Speaker 5: and I just talked about how the Cardinals' offense scores
Speaker 5: points at home. So yes, I think that this is
Speaker 5: going to be points scored if forty nineers are going
Speaker 5: to win this game, but just to lock in that
Speaker 5: they're gonna win by two touchdowns, like, no, that's not
Speaker 5: gonna happen. The Cardinals are four and two against the
Speaker 5: spread at home this season, like they've played significantly better
Speaker 5: in front of their home crowd coming off a bye week.
Speaker 5: It's Kyler Murray, Like this isn't some like bad quarterback
Speaker 5: or some backup, like he's an all pro quarterback. Like
Speaker 5: so I didn't understand this line one came out. I'll
Speaker 5: always take double digits at home for underdogs, especially in
Speaker 5: the division, especially when it's Kyler Murray, especially the team
Speaker 5: coming off of bye week. So this is just a
Speaker 5: process play for me. And I found that at least
Speaker 5: in the last couple of weeks that backing underdogs in
Speaker 5: shootouts has really been more profitable than not because when
Speaker 5: teams are when no offense can be stopped, like the
Speaker 5: game is not gonna be a blowout in one way
Speaker 5: or the other, Like it's gonna be high scoring in
Speaker 5: more or less a close game.
Speaker 4: So I like the Cardinals plus twelve and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm not comfortable with the twelve and a half either
Speaker 1: way necessarily, So I'm just sticking with the over on
Speaker 1: this one. But you make a really good case of
Speaker 1: anything I'm leading towards you too, which is them covering this,
Speaker 1: especially on the road there for San Francisco forty nine
Speaker 1: ers that the twelve is a little, it's it's a lot.
Speaker 1: It's a lot for them to have.
Speaker 5: To Yeah, it doesn't get It's like more of like
Speaker 5: a principal play of anything. It's like if you're gonna
Speaker 5: give me twelve and a half points at home, and.
Speaker 1: Look, we're gonna be a football team. So I get it.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not saying the line is wrong. I'm
Speaker 1: saying it's not tempting enough to me. And it's so
Speaker 1: close to I gif it was a fourteen, I'd be right,
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half transparency.
Speaker 4: I jumped on it when it was at fourteen.
Speaker 1: Right, and when it was fourteen and a half or
Speaker 1: fourteen like that to me, yes, all the way on Arizona.
Speaker 1: Now that's twelve and a half. It's right on that borderline.
Speaker 1: But I think Toboggan's point that over is really interesting.
Speaker 1: Let's do one more from both of the boys here
Speaker 1: before we close out. Today's action, Bogs, You've got a
Speaker 1: fun one for us, and I like this. So this
Speaker 1: a little three way action you got going on.
Speaker 2: That's right, It's okay if it's in a three way
Speaker 2: and this is a three way team alt line parlay.
Speaker 2: This is you're moving this Denver line to six and
Speaker 2: a half plus six and a half at Detroit, the Giants,
Speaker 2: plus seven and a half against the Saints San Atlanta,
Speaker 2: minus one at Carolina. All of those games will give
Speaker 2: you a plus three thirty three juice. You're gonna triple
Speaker 2: up your money. You're expanding those lines a little bit.
Speaker 2: You're getting plus money on two of those away teams.
Speaker 2: So I like this line a lot. And I believe
Speaker 2: my last three team, oh my last three away team
Speaker 2: alt line prop on this show hit as well. So well,
Speaker 2: let's ride that momentum, let's go with that one.
Speaker 1: Let's ride baby, as long as the Giants are involved
Speaker 1: in this, Like, I'm all about it, all about the
Speaker 1: Giants this week. I'm eating the cutlets. All right. Let's
Speaker 1: go to you ericson close us out. You got one
Speaker 1: more to go? What is it?
Speaker 5: Well, we've got a game at Ford Field, folks means oh, Iday.
Speaker 4: We're going over over at Ford Field. Look for the
Speaker 4: last line for the Lions.
Speaker 5: Last five games have gone over teams have averaged between
Speaker 5: Denver and the Lions of average forty eight points scored.
Speaker 5: Lions last fifteen home games average total has been fifty
Speaker 5: five points. Eighty seven percent of the games of those
Speaker 5: fifteen home games have scored at least fifty one points.
Speaker 5: And I know that the Lions defense kind of looked
Speaker 5: like they were gonna be a thing in the beginning
Speaker 5: of season. Well that's gone like that, that's totally gone.
Speaker 5: Like they reverted back to.
Speaker 2: Who's secondary is worse ericson Jacksonville or Detroit right now.
Speaker 4: It's it's both pretty bad.
Speaker 5: I think Jackson's had more injuries, but yeah, no, they're
Speaker 5: both pretty horrible.
Speaker 1: So it's funny all of a sudden that Week one
Speaker 1: matchup with perspective. Now, I mean, you know, you remember
Speaker 1: the opening night there with the Kansay Chiefs lost, and
Speaker 1: everyone was like, oh my goodness, so look at how
Speaker 1: good the lines are. Maybe the Chiefs aren't that good
Speaker 1: the Chiefs.
Speaker 5: The Chiefs also didn't have to Travis Kelsey in that
Speaker 5: game either in the line one. But yeah, I just
Speaker 5: like the over in this spot, especially looking at Denver.
Speaker 5: Denver has played. Now this will be the third straight
Speaker 5: game in a dome, so I think that we're going
Speaker 5: to see them have more success. They're coming off their
Speaker 5: best the ardage total since Week seven. You're starting to
Speaker 5: see Russ cook a little bit more. And I think
Speaker 5: that this is a particular matchup where the Denver Broncos
Speaker 5: are kind of forced to pass the Baltimore because De
Speaker 5: Troy can score points at home. So I like the
Speaker 5: over in this game, and I think that you could
Speaker 5: see even a big spot from like Jerry Judy, who
Speaker 5: kind of let us down last week and Sun can't
Speaker 5: be stopped.
Speaker 4: He got the touchdown.
Speaker 1: Jerry Judy is a walking, living letdown. Let's just be honest.
Speaker 1: What he Island the many Court Sutton, That's who the
Speaker 1: man is. That's all about the Cortland Sutton, you know.
Speaker 1: And besides the over, the forty seven and a half
Speaker 1: for Detroit Denver, Erickson's also in the Arizona plus twelve
Speaker 1: and a half against San fran Indie minus one and
Speaker 1: a half, Tennessee minus two and a half against Houston,
Speaker 1: and the Giants plus six over at New Orleans. Then
Speaker 1: you've got on Bogman's side Atlanta minus three against Carolina
Speaker 1: in Carolina Tennessee two and a half. Just like Erickson,
Speaker 1: they're both in on that one Baltimore and the three
Speaker 1: against Jacksonville San fran Arizona over forty seven and a half,
Speaker 1: and it Bogs has that very tasty away team altline parlay.
Speaker 1: Whenever we do the allt lines, I think we have
Speaker 1: to put our flannel shirts. I'll remember it's the mid
Speaker 1: nineties here. Whenever we do the alternative stuff tenver plus
Speaker 1: six and a half, New York Giants plus seven and
Speaker 1: a half and Atlanta minus one at CAROLINEA. You put
Speaker 1: them all together, you get three to one basically, So
Speaker 1: go take care of that. Also, download the Betting Pros app,
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Speaker 1: the planet to start betting smarter and not harder over
Speaker 1: here at Betting Pros. But more to the point, we
Speaker 1: like to hear from all of you, so drop those comments.
Speaker 1: Tell us what your favorite play of the week is.
Speaker 1: I want to know. We all bet together. That's what
Speaker 1: we do here at Betting Pros. That'll do it for us,
Speaker 1: but the story of the game goes on for Scott
Speaker 1: Bogman and Andrew Erickson. I'm Joey P. We'll see you
Speaker 1: next time. Kids.
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