Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,
Speaker 1: and we here.
Speaker 2: At breaking points, are already thinking of ways we can
Speaker 2: up our game for this critical election.
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Speaker 1: But enough with that, let's get to the show.
Speaker 2: In twenty sixteen, everybody told Joe Biden to step down.
Speaker 2: Everybody was sure he was two olds. Same people are
Speaker 2: the same points in twenty twenty. Same people are making
Speaker 2: the same points now. But the democratic process and the
Speaker 2: deliberative process that chows Joe Biden is the process that
Speaker 2: we have.
Speaker 4: It is how American democracy works.
Speaker 2: The parties choose candidates, and then the nation choose between them.
Speaker 1: It's not just Joe Biden. Us in mental decline if
Speaker 1: we make it our candidate. The whole parties in mental
Speaker 1: decline if we select Joe Biden as our strongest candidate.
Speaker 1: I'm not willing to insult the Democratic Party like that.
Speaker 5: All right, welcome to counterpoints, Friday, Ryan. We've got some great,
Speaker 5: great guests today on the biggest topic I would argue
Speaker 5: in the world right now, which is the future of
Speaker 5: the American presidency and the presidency himself.
Speaker 6: Who do we have?
Speaker 7: So we're going to be joined by Dmitri Melhorn on
Speaker 7: the one hand, is a democratic kind of organizer and
Speaker 7: mega donor who has been making the strident case in
Speaker 7: defense of Joe Biden as the best Democrat to take
Speaker 7: on Donald Trump to this day in the general election.
Speaker 7: And we'll also be talking with Jenk Yuger, founder of TYT,
Speaker 7: a man who probably needs no introduction to our audience.
Speaker 7: So let's bring in Jenk and Dimitri. Both of you, guys,
Speaker 7: Thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate it.
Speaker 2: Thanks thank you for having us. I should say I'm
Speaker 2: not a major donor. I'm just a nice donor. I'm
Speaker 2: like a bundler type. It's my colleagues who are the
Speaker 2: major donors right there.
Speaker 6: You're pretty generous in your own right.
Speaker 4: I'm generous, but I'm not mega.
Speaker 7: Right So, and for people who are not familiar with
Speaker 7: the kind of the world of democratic donor politics, Dimitri
Speaker 7: kind of represents Reid Hoffman and some other like major donors.
Speaker 7: Read Hoff and the LinkedIn billionaire who would qualify as
Speaker 7: as mega donor. Yeah, and we're excited to have you,
Speaker 7: Dimitri over in the independent media space here, hoping to
Speaker 7: see more of you here. So let let's let's start
Speaker 7: with you, Dmitri. You and I spoke a couple of
Speaker 7: days ago last weekend about the state of the race.
Speaker 7: It looked at that point like Biden was done for,
Speaker 7: like at least from the conventional wisdom in Washington. But
Speaker 7: you were not persuaded by that, and you said, look,
Speaker 7: you guys are overestimating your ability to change the reality here.
Speaker 7: And the reality here is that Joe Biden feels like
Speaker 7: he's still the best candidate.
Speaker 6: He's going to stay in.
Speaker 7: Where are you today and has anything changed about your
Speaker 7: perspectives since then when it comes to Biden's ability to
Speaker 7: win the general election?
Speaker 2: Yeah, and thank you, Ryan, thank you for having me
Speaker 2: a lot of times. The question comes down to whether
Speaker 2: President Biden can do the job for four more years,
Speaker 2: and that's what it comes down to. But the question
Speaker 2: that I'm focused on is what is the most likely
Speaker 2: way to prevent President Trump from having a second term,
Speaker 2: and to prevent President Trump from having a second term
Speaker 2: from being elected, you need someone to be able to
Speaker 2: win the nomination of the Democratic Party and also beat
Speaker 2: Donald Trump in a general election. And for the last
Speaker 2: five years, there's only been one Democrat who's been any
Speaker 2: work books and only one problem who's been anywhere close
Speaker 2: to getting their nominations back. And so we've known for
Speaker 2: kind of five years that this was the most likely rematch,
Speaker 2: and we knew that both men would have some increasing
Speaker 2: challenges compared to last time. You know, Biden and Trump,
Speaker 2: either of them is the same man they were four
Speaker 2: years ago. And so the question is did that debate
Speaker 2: fundamentally alter Biden's electability more than the things that we've
Speaker 2: learned about Trump and keep learning about Trump, like his
Speaker 2: criminality and so over it.
Speaker 4: So that is a real question. It's a fair question.
Speaker 2: But immediately after the debate, the swing voters seem to
Speaker 2: have not moved very much. The polls in each of
Speaker 2: the three closest battleground states have moved three points maybe
Speaker 2: more likely too, if you look at the weighted averages
Speaker 2: for pole weight and right now Biden is still tied
Speaker 2: in electoral votes represent sorry ahead in electoral votes representing
Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty one electoral votes, and he's basically
Speaker 2: tied within the margin of error in states representing another
Speaker 2: sixty electoral votes. So the question is who's better to
Speaker 2: win and whose decision is it? And if it's Joe
Speaker 2: Biden's decision, which it is, he won the nomination, then
Speaker 2: the burden of proof is not.
Speaker 4: Just to prove to me.
Speaker 2: You have to prove it to the standards of Joe Biden,
Speaker 2: who's heard these arguments in sixteen and agreed with them,
Speaker 2: and in twenty and disagreed with them. And he was
Speaker 2: always right age in those two elections, and everybody else
Speaker 2: was wrong in those two elections.
Speaker 4: So I think we should have some humility here.
Speaker 5: And jenk, how would you prove it to Dimitri?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Easy on many many fronts. So Number one, he's
Speaker 1: at thirty six percent approval rating. No income in ever
Speaker 1: in American history, not just president but at the federal
Speaker 1: level has ever won when they're in the thirties in
Speaker 1: an election year. Number two, he was at plus nine
Speaker 1: at this point in the election in twenty twenty. Now
Speaker 1: he's in a best case scenario minus three. That's twelve
Speaker 1: points to make up his approval rating last time when
Speaker 1: he won and barely won, the electoral college was at
Speaker 1: fifty two points, so his sixteen points behind an approval rating.
Speaker 1: These are all totally unrecoverable. They would be the most
Speaker 1: It would be the most unprecedented political comeback in American
Speaker 1: history by a lot, and a guy in mental decline
Speaker 1: is going to pull that off. He's shown absolutely no
Speaker 1: ability to pull that off. In fact, I said that
Speaker 1: he would lose non swing states months ago, and here
Speaker 1: we are. He's now losing three non swing states. Now
Speaker 1: New Jersey and New York are in play. So, guys,
Speaker 1: what is not in dispute is that Donald Trump's a terrible,
Speaker 1: terrible guy, and we're both trying to make sure that
Speaker 1: he doesn't win reelection. We just have a very significant
Speaker 1: difference of opinion on what is the best way to
Speaker 1: make sure Donald Trump doesn't win. And with Joe Biden,
Speaker 1: it's a lock. He's not going to pull off the
Speaker 1: greatest political miracle in American history. Okay, So those are
Speaker 1: all the numbers, and I can give you underlying numbers.
Speaker 1: He's lost latinos, he's lost the youth vote, He's lost
Speaker 1: almost everything. Right, So the idea that it's close is ridiculous.
Speaker 1: He has a near zero percent chance of winning. So
Speaker 1: that's why I've been on a war path for nine
Speaker 1: months because I'm like, how could you guys not see it?
Speaker 1: But all of that is a lead up to me
Speaker 1: asking Dmitri. Is Joe Biden in mental decline?
Speaker 4: Yeah? He is in physical degogment. He's physical line.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: And the reason and the reason the reason that I
Speaker 2: know that is because emotionally, when I saw that debate,
Speaker 2: I thought he was a mental decline. So emotionally, when
Speaker 2: I saw the first ten minutes of that debate, I
Speaker 2: always wear the House democraduct caucuses as well, I engaged
Speaker 2: in a remote medical diagnosis, even though I am totally unqualified,
Speaker 2: because I've seen people aging and I was worried that
Speaker 2: it was mental decline. So I followed up and found
Speaker 2: out that from everybody, including world class brain experts that
Speaker 2: we've hired to assess both Biden and from for years,
Speaker 2: that this is consistent with motor decline. And the best
Speaker 2: evidence of whether there's mental decline is the job that he.
Speaker 4: Is currently doing.
Speaker 2: And the job that he is currently doing, we still
Speaker 2: today Joe Biden gets pulled in to be the closer
Speaker 2: in bipartisan negotiations. And we know from Kevin McCarthy's a
Speaker 2: Mission against interest that when he does that, he closes
Speaker 2: the deal and rolls them. We know that today this month,
Speaker 2: he has pulled into international negotiatations to close the deal.
Speaker 2: Our allies want him as the closer personally. That's why
Speaker 2: he's working fourteen hour days in war zones. I remember
Speaker 2: when I was an associate in McKinsey and Company twenty
Speaker 2: years ago, and I worked a ton of hours he's working.
Speaker 2: I would have moments like that too, And so the
Speaker 2: question is is it age or ability?
Speaker 4: And the best evidence about whether it's.
Speaker 2: Ability is what kind of a job he's doing as
Speaker 2: president right now and as president and goes he's pretty good.
Speaker 1: No. The other thing about Gitzy, No, Dimitri, Listen. First
Speaker 1: of all, I think it's the most obvious thing in
Speaker 1: the world. He's in mental decline. The great majority of
Speaker 1: Americans agree with me, and he himself admits he can't
Speaker 1: go past eight o'clock at night. That's not a great
Speaker 1: job of president. Sorry, it isn't. He he can't go
Speaker 1: to the private meetings with the G seven leaders because
Speaker 1: he's too tired, he himself says all the time. Besides,
Speaker 1: I don't even know what he's saying. He says he's
Speaker 1: the first black woman to serve with a black president,
Speaker 1: and that's after he had the questions handed to him
Speaker 1: written out. These are the questions. All you have to
Speaker 1: do is answer them. We have to prove that you're
Speaker 1: not in mental decline. And he says, I'm the first
Speaker 1: black woman. Okay, So anyways, but Dimitri, oh, you've met
Speaker 1: Joe Biden over the decades, right, I mean I have, yeah,
Speaker 1: and so, and he's a disaster right now. He's an
Speaker 1: absolute disaster right now. But Dmitri, doesn't really matter whether
Speaker 1: I agree or or what I think or what you think.
Speaker 1: What I'm obsessed with is what do the American voters think?
Speaker 1: And that jury's in. You know, most of the poles
Speaker 1: have it around seventy two. One outlier had it at
Speaker 1: eighty percent. But even if you take the lower number,
Speaker 1: seventy two percent of Americans think that he is not
Speaker 1: mentally healthy enough to serve. So we're going to run
Speaker 1: a guy that, at a minimum seven out of ten
Speaker 1: Americans think his brain is not functioning and he needs
Speaker 1: to be president. The hardest job for another four years.
Speaker 1: The minute we start chanting four more years, we lose
Speaker 1: the election. Demetri, how can you like, how do you
Speaker 1: put up a candidate this seventy two percent of Americans
Speaker 1: say his brain isn't working. Yeah.
Speaker 2: So, so I do agree with your main point, Zank,
Speaker 2: which is that the real question is what voters will think.
Speaker 2: And I agree with you that the voters have rendered
Speaker 2: a remote diagnosis of Joe Biden that is consistent with
Speaker 2: your impression and not with the impression that I've gathered
Speaker 2: from the people I've consulted.
Speaker 4: So I agree with all of that.
Speaker 2: The thing that I think when you get to the
Speaker 2: data about the swing voters, what you are saying is
Speaker 2: that you would still vote for Biden over Trump, but
Speaker 2: you don't think they will. And when you cite all
Speaker 2: these numbers about how badly Biden is doing, that is
Speaker 2: all just objective, like Biden versus Biden. And the other
Speaker 2: thing that is unprecedented that we've never had before is
Speaker 2: running against a convicted felon who launched an insurrection and
Speaker 2: is now attacking juris. And so the question is not
Speaker 2: is Biden objectively do people like or want him as
Speaker 2: the nominee. My whole life, the American public has been
Speaker 2: dissatisfied with the person who the may parties have put
Speaker 2: forth for them to choose. It's worse now, but that
Speaker 2: is not the question. The question is the two way
Speaker 2: and the two way. All of the models that I've seen,
Speaker 2: from the most anti Biden model, which is Nate Silver's,
Speaker 2: to the most pro Biden model, which is five thirty eight,
Speaker 2: to all the betting markets, they all put this race
Speaker 2: within the range of Biden having a thirty percent to
Speaker 2: fifty percent chance. Five thirty eight says it's fifty to fifty.
Speaker 2: They could be wrong, you could be right. I'm just
Speaker 2: saying that all of the aggregators and all of the
Speaker 2: models looking at the poles disagree with you that his
Speaker 2: odds of winning or zero, and the swing voters who
Speaker 2: you are sure will not vote for Biden when they
Speaker 2: see Biden and Trump side by side, it's the same
Speaker 2: choice as last time, except both men have new liabilities.
Speaker 2: Biden has shown something that people generally perceive to be
Speaker 2: a performance related agent agent, even though I disagree, and
Speaker 2: also Trump has acquired his relationship He's bragged about Rode
Speaker 2: Wade's allied himself with rural theocrats. He is a If anything,
Speaker 2: I believe that Donald Trump has revealed himself to be
Speaker 2: more dangerous than last time, whereas the evidence that Joe
Speaker 2: Biden can be a great president is stronger than last
Speaker 2: time because he's been one. So I think the two
Speaker 2: way is the question, and thus far the two way
Speaker 2: does not appear to be moving the way you seem
Speaker 2: certain it will move.
Speaker 7: Yeah, Jamie Jake, what do you make of this point?
Speaker 7: By the way, it's I was just checking. It's very odd.
Speaker 7: We were looking at this earlier on Wednesday. Five point
Speaker 7: thirty eight does say fifty two forty eighth for Trump
Speaker 7: right now? Fifty two percent chance that Trump win forty percent.
Speaker 7: I think Biden is probably clinging to that. I think
Speaker 7: Dmitri's clinging to that. But I'm curious how you would
Speaker 7: respond to five thirty eight assessment that this is sort
Speaker 7: of a toss up.
Speaker 1: So look, five thirty eight is that that's nuts? I
Speaker 1: bet them any amount of money that they're like off
Speaker 1: by a landslide. I mean, is that is a preposterous
Speaker 1: thing to say. I mean, fifty two forty eight on
Speaker 1: which planet be God? Guys. Seven to eight out of
Speaker 1: ten Americans think his brain is not working. They're not
Speaker 1: going to vote for him. Now, that doesn't mean Blue
Speaker 1: Maga isn't going to vote for him. Blue Maga is
Speaker 1: gonna vote for him no matter what. And when it
Speaker 1: comes down to election day, you know, we're all gonna
Speaker 1: have to make a super tough decision, okay, because Trump's terrible.
Speaker 1: Like you mentioned the convictions, I know, but that's already
Speaker 1: baked in. That's already baked in. It isn't moving anyone. Guys.
Speaker 1: Whenever we're talking about the election, this again, I agree
Speaker 1: with Dimitri ha something we have to be talking about
Speaker 1: the swing voters, the independent voters. It doesn't matter what
Speaker 1: we think we hate Trump. If it was just us voting,
Speaker 1: it'd be a landslide for Biden. Okay, the other side
Speaker 1: hates Biden. Forget Blue Maga and Red Maga. The middle
Speaker 1: is what matters. And the middle thinks that Joe Biden's
Speaker 1: brain isn't working, they're not gonna elect them for another
Speaker 1: four years and so. And the other problem, Dimitri is,
Speaker 1: it isn't just hey Biden versus Trump. Why not have
Speaker 1: a candidate that would be crushing Trump because Trump has
Speaker 1: those liabilities no matter what. So why are we putting
Speaker 1: up a guy that has at least the same amount
Speaker 1: of liabilities. Imagine a ticket like Andy Kasheer and Wesmore,
Speaker 1: two young, dynamic, successful Democratic governors. One guy won twice
Speaker 1: in Kentucky. The other guy is this dynamic, great speaker
Speaker 1: who's the governor of Maryland. Oh my god, imagine how
Speaker 1: excited Democrats would be if they have that ticket. We
Speaker 1: would crush Trump. Why do we want to? I mean,
Speaker 1: at a bare minimum risk losing, in my opinion, guarantee losing,
Speaker 1: and I don't like there's no planet where a guy
Speaker 1: at thirty six percent has a forty eight percent chance
Speaker 1: of winning, a guy at thirty six percent and incumbent
Speaker 1: has a zero percent chance of winning. It's literally never ever,
Speaker 1: ever happened before. And so you're saying that Biden is
Speaker 1: as great a politician as AOC was in her against
Speaker 1: Joe Browley, and way better than that, way more dynamic
Speaker 1: than that, because it takes an AOC like miracle to
Speaker 1: win at this point, So why don't we pick someone better?
Speaker 1: What is wrong with us? Why do we want to
Speaker 1: pick our worst candidate? Instead of our best candidate. This
Speaker 1: is a no brainer as long as you're not a
Speaker 1: mental to Clark, what is wrong with us?
Speaker 4: Nothing?
Speaker 2: You guys have the exact emotional reaction that I had
Speaker 2: when Trump came down the escalator, which is panic and
Speaker 2: outrage that this is going to happen, And when the
Speaker 2: beginning of the debate happened, I was feeling the same
Speaker 2: set of emotions. However, we all have to check those
Speaker 2: emotions against objective realities. So there's two major claims that
Speaker 2: Jank made that I think are objectively false. One is
Speaker 2: that the negatives for Biden are new to swing voters
Speaker 2: and the negatives for Trump are baked in. That is
Speaker 2: something that we believe because we talk about them all
Speaker 2: the time. The observation that I have made of swing
Speaker 2: voters and their pole movement since the debate.
Speaker 4: Suggests that actually the opposite is true.
Speaker 2: The truly marginal voters who you know, it's the very
Speaker 2: few people who at this point with these two men,
Speaker 2: are still not sure which way they're going to go
Speaker 2: or whether they're going to vote. That's an unusual crowd,
Speaker 2: and those people are bathed in the warm glow of
Speaker 2: Fox News and TikTok, and they already believe that Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: They already believe that Joe Biden is as bad as
Speaker 2: the first ten minutes of debate all the time.
Speaker 4: They already believe that.
Speaker 2: And they don't know anything about Donald Trump's weaknesses because
Speaker 2: the maga media pundits, you know, have closed ranks in
Speaker 2: matching outfits around around his trial. The second thing that
Speaker 2: I think is objectively false is that someone else can
Speaker 2: easily beat Trump. And I appreciate the instinct, I certainly
Speaker 2: wish that were the case. But if you look around
Speaker 2: the world, young and talented and handsome politicians like Justin
Speaker 2: Trudeau and a Memol Macron actually have lower approval ratings
Speaker 2: than Joe Biden. And it's true, they just do. And
Speaker 2: if you look at all the people who Trump has
Speaker 2: flattened in his run, all of them look a lot
Speaker 2: like the Andy Basher Wes Moore hypothetical, like truly Aronda Santis,
Speaker 2: a Hillary Clinton, a Jeb Bush, and Marco Rubius. Surely
Speaker 2: those kinds of people can beat someone like Trump, and
Speaker 2: it turns out they can't. So I think we have
Speaker 2: to just be honest and recognize that, regardless of our
Speaker 2: take on it. There is something about Joe Biden that
Speaker 2: prevents Donald Trump from running his preferred plays. His preferred
Speaker 2: plays are the system is irredeemably corrupt. The people in
Speaker 2: it are irredeemably corrupt. And the reason it's important that
Speaker 2: you stop their corruption is because they're attacking Christianity, and
Speaker 2: they're attacking white people, and they're attacking men and their
Speaker 2: leftist radicals and all of those things. Donald Trump and
Speaker 2: his movement choke on trying to make that happen with Biden.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump got impeached to try to make people think
Speaker 2: that Joe Biden was corrupt, and they've spent so much
Speaker 2: energy it doesn't work. I think we just have to
Speaker 2: recognize in this environment, as much as I have imagined,
Speaker 2: you know, Wes Moore and Gretcha Whitmer and Josh Shapiro
Speaker 2: and Aye Sheer, the bench is great, but we will
Speaker 2: have four months. If Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, if
Speaker 2: the Herris, if the Biden Haars ticket were to release
Speaker 2: their deligates right now, there would be a scramble. And
Speaker 2: during that scramble, the other side would be demonizing the
Speaker 2: Shehear and more whoever we put up and if you
Speaker 2: didn't like what happened to John Carrey in two thousand
Speaker 2: and four, do not watch as your dream Canada in
Speaker 2: the future gets destroyed as they're being introduced to the
Speaker 2: American public.
Speaker 5: Jenk, I want to throw that back to you with
Speaker 5: also the question about whether this polling dip that we've
Speaker 5: seen is potentially temporary. If let's just take the fantasy
Speaker 5: of democratic elites right now, Joe Biden does a great
Speaker 5: speech of the White House, I should say, Joe Biden
Speaker 5: does a great speech at NATO. He has this great
Speaker 5: press conference. You know, he just nails it, knocks it
Speaker 5: out of the park. The dust kind of settles. People
Speaker 5: see it's not as bad as maybe the debate made
Speaker 5: it look, and the polling recovers is there a possibility
Speaker 5: of that? And then also respond to Dimitri's point about
Speaker 5: the other candidates as well.
Speaker 1: All right, let me one seven at the time here.
Speaker 1: So first, there is no chance to recover. He's losing
Speaker 1: New Jersey. We're having a fantasy conversation over here. He's
Speaker 1: losing New Jersey, and he's an obvious mental decline. He's
Speaker 1: not going to even Democrats acknowledge there's no way in
Speaker 1: the world he makes it four years. So we're asking
Speaker 1: the country to vote for a guy that we all
Speaker 1: know isn't even going to make it four years. In
Speaker 1: terms of being mentally healthy, that's nuts. That's totally nuts.
Speaker 1: So in terms of the ability to make a comeback.
Speaker 1: I wrote all the way back in like two thousand
Speaker 1: and six about how Tim Russer was wrong on Meet
Speaker 1: the Press about his narrative of comeback for George W. Bush.
Speaker 1: I'm like, you just made that up. This brother doesn't
Speaker 1: have a narrative of comeback in him. He's not capable
Speaker 1: of it. He's not smart enough. And all that George
Speaker 1: Bush did from two thousand and six to two thousand
Speaker 1: and eight was slide in the polls because he was
Speaker 1: a disaster, and we were right about that. People. I
Speaker 1: want to wish a narrative of comeback into reality. Sometimes.
Speaker 1: Joe Biden is not like George W. Bush. He was
Speaker 1: a perfectly competent person for most of his career, whether
Speaker 1: I agreed with him or disagreed with him on policies
Speaker 1: and those great deals that he Kevin McCarthy brags about.
Speaker 1: Of course, he brags about it. Joe Biden, his entire
Speaker 1: career has been handing Republicans every deal they ever wanted.
Speaker 1: His idea of a compromises you get ninety five percent,
Speaker 1: I get five percent. But that's my policy difference with him.
Speaker 1: But at least he was sharp and he got those
Speaker 1: things done. That's not his issue now. His issue is massive, obvious,
Speaker 1: blatant mental decline, Let alone the fact that he thinks
Speaker 1: that his uncle was eaten by cannibals. He's always had
Speaker 1: a problem with singing to the truth. So this is
Speaker 1: not the If you think this is the best candidate
Speaker 1: that the Democrats have, you are greatly insulting the Democratic Party. No,
Speaker 1: the Democrats have tons and tons of way better candidates,
Speaker 1: and look to me, true, I get it. It's not
Speaker 1: like there's a fantasy world where you put up a sheer,
Speaker 1: more wit or whoever it is, and the Republicans are like,
Speaker 1: you know what, We're just not going to run against them.
Speaker 1: Of course, they're going to try to smear them, of course,
Speaker 1: and will that have some degree of effect. Of course.
Speaker 1: Will it be a little bit of risk, of course,
Speaker 1: But the much greater risk is losing New Jersey. The
Speaker 1: much greater list risk is not just a loss to retreat,
Speaker 1: but a landslide where Donald Trump gets to walk out
Speaker 1: there after the election and say I just want all
Speaker 1: of Congress and I just want to landslide victory past
Speaker 1: the swing states that nobody thought I could do. That
Speaker 1: means I have a mandate to do whatever I want,
Speaker 1: and that is definitely the direction that we're heading. Last
Speaker 1: quick thing on Trudeau and Mike Crohn. No, when they
Speaker 1: were young and energetic and new, they won. They're losing
Speaker 1: now because they're the incumbents. People hate incumbents all across
Speaker 1: the world. People want change because we live under corporate
Speaker 1: rule and they know it in their gut. So this
Speaker 1: is divorced from Biden's particular situation, but that's another giant
Speaker 1: anchor that is dragging him down. Everything that goes wrong
Speaker 1: in the country is blamed on the incumbent. It's an
Speaker 1: easy pickings for the Republicans to attack, attack, attack, Vasher
Speaker 1: and Moore and Whitmer and Shapiro. They don't have those problems,
Speaker 1: so what are they going to attack them on? The
Speaker 1: problems of Kentucky. First of all, Kentucky's doing great under
Speaker 1: a democratic governor, so the risk is infinitely higher By
Speaker 1: sticking with Joe Biden than it is with coming with
Speaker 1: a dynamic new team that also, by the way, has
Speaker 1: the advantage of two more advantages. One is, again Dmitri's
Speaker 1: not totally wrong about a lot of Biden's problems are
Speaker 1: also baked in. A lot of people thought his brain
Speaker 1: was melting earlier. That's not a great thing. That's not
Speaker 1: a thing to bring it. And so Basher or whoever
Speaker 1: it is, would not come in with those baked in problems.
Speaker 1: They wouldn't have the incumbency problem, and they wouldn't start
Speaker 1: out in a hold, and it would start in the
Speaker 1: whole country. Dmitri, this entire election has been begging for
Speaker 1: another candidate. They don't want these two. Imagine if by
Speaker 1: a miracle, the Democrats gave them what they wanted at
Speaker 1: different Kennedy as someone who was young and successful and
Speaker 1: could obliterate Donald Trump in a debate, put me against
Speaker 1: Donald Trump and in debate and wanted me humiliate him.
Speaker 1: Instead we had a guy who lost to him. Why
Speaker 1: are we doing this to ourselves? Why not pick someone better?
Speaker 7: And Dimitria to his point real quickly about New Jersey
Speaker 7: in the spring, that we don't have many polls, and
Speaker 7: not many high quality. In the spring, Biden New Jersey
Speaker 7: was up about five six points, with Kennedy you know, pulling,
Speaker 7: you know, high single digits.
Speaker 6: There was a poll in late.
Speaker 7: June that has Trump forty one, Biden forty rfk Junior
Speaker 7: at seven percent. So respond to anything else Jenks said,
Speaker 7: But I just want to say, like that, So that
Speaker 7: is the Jersey pull. How nervous does it make you
Speaker 7: to be talking about New Jersey in July of twenty twenty.
Speaker 4: More so, there are many things.
Speaker 2: Obviously, jenk and I have been both in our own ways,
Speaker 2: trying to resist this fascism, this fascist movement, and so
Speaker 2: this is the first time we really talked about and
Speaker 2: I think there's a number of things about which we disagree.
Speaker 2: Probably the easiest thing to do, rather than dealing with
Speaker 2: all of it, is just to quickly say two things.
Speaker 4: And then get to the main point. Number one. I
Speaker 4: actually don't worry about New Jersey.
Speaker 2: I agree with Jaank that a landslide win would be bad,
Speaker 2: but I also think a narrow wind would be bad.
Speaker 2: I think if the United States of America hands power
Speaker 2: to that movement, the Trump movement, with all of its
Speaker 2: criminality and all of the Project twenty twenty five stuff.
Speaker 2: We're not getting it back as the Supreme Court in
Speaker 2: Congress do not have an army and Trump will. So
Speaker 2: my version of this is as bad as it is
Speaker 2: to lose the landslide, just losing to that man is
Speaker 2: equally bad in terms of the issue about replacing a
Speaker 2: Biden with someone else, you know, I mean, Rishi Sunac
Speaker 2: replaced Liz Trust and it didn't matter. The incumbent's still
Speaker 2: the incumbent, and a replacement doesn't work. But the main
Speaker 2: point is, let's just for arguments, say stipulate that everything
Speaker 2: Jank peers is true.
Speaker 4: Let's assume that Joe Biden is very very.
Speaker 2: Much you know, he's like Yoda on his deathbed in
Speaker 2: Return of the Jedi, you know, you know, sometimes loosen,
Speaker 2: sometimes not.
Speaker 4: Just assume that.
Speaker 2: Okay, if he gets a call at three am and
Speaker 2: he's disoriented like that in your world, he will pull
Speaker 2: together a group of people and they will make a decision.
Speaker 4: If Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Gets a call at three am in twenty twenty seven,
Speaker 2: the downside risks are quite high.
Speaker 4: He could launch a nuclear strike.
Speaker 2: Literally, I mean that is more than within the realm
Speaker 2: of possibility, and America can see the difference.
Speaker 4: They can see the.
Speaker 2: Difference between in return of the Jedi Java, the Hut
Speaker 2: was quite vigorous, and people would choose Yoda. So that's
Speaker 2: the point is is even if you are right, and
Speaker 2: by the way, the most bearish model on Biden's odds
Speaker 2: is the New Silver Report and percent. So even if
Speaker 2: I concede that the fifty percent number is wrong and
Speaker 2: the betting markets are wrong, it's forty percent and you're right,
Speaker 2: it's still thirty percent. And that's what we're fighting for.
Speaker 5: We have to get to I think one of the
Speaker 5: I mean it, maybe Ryan and I agree on this.
Speaker 5: I think the most important question here, which we address
Speaker 5: a little bit of beginning, the difference between mental and
Speaker 5: physical decline and whether Biden is in physical decline. And
Speaker 5: we do have a clip mashup that I want to
Speaker 5: get you both to respond to. Here, let's roll this
Speaker 5: next element. This is Biden with George Dephanopolis and in
Speaker 5: some other places.
Speaker 8: Let's watch, nobody said anything except me and the post
Speaker 8: out there and the local you know race. You know,
Speaker 8: he said I did nothing to stop Prussia's invasion of Ukraine.
Speaker 8: The fact she said, I think I encouraged Russia from
Speaker 8: going I encourage I think he encouraged Russia going in.
Speaker 8: I mean re reading from the list of lives. First
Speaker 8: of all, he was made up, oh, suckers and losers.
Speaker 8: I was with called Americans in the cemetery of World
Speaker 8: War One suckers and losers. And so this guy's gonna
Speaker 8: have to start and answer the what he did. I'm
Speaker 8: not letting.
Speaker 4: And if you stay in and Trump is elected and
Speaker 4: everything you're warning about comes to pass, how will you
Speaker 4: feel in January?
Speaker 2: I'll feel as long as I gave it my all
Speaker 2: and I did the goodest jobs I know I can do.
Speaker 6: That's what this is about.
Speaker 5: So Demetri. NBC hosted a neurologist named doctor Tom Pitt
Speaker 5: who you may have seen this, who said that he
Speaker 5: would fail someone or someone would be failed in medical
Speaker 5: school if they didn't diagnose a person displaying those symptoms
Speaker 5: with Parkinsonian whatever it was, Ryan Parkinson's or this variation
Speaker 5: of Parkinson's.
Speaker 6: None of us are trying to get our medical degree.
Speaker 5: Yeah, thank goodness, that would be bad for everyone. But
Speaker 5: you're maintaining dimitri that what we see from Joe Biden
Speaker 5: reflects physical decline but not mental decline.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 2: So the George, so a couple of things. One you
Speaker 2: might want, I mean, the whole point of why this
Speaker 2: is an important conversation from my perspective and why we're
Speaker 2: out there so much is you can do that mashup
Speaker 2: reel for Donald Trump and it's way scarier, right, you know,
Speaker 2: And if you do, there are plenty of psychologists who.
Speaker 4: Have jeopardized their careers by remotely.
Speaker 2: Observing that Donald Trump is a dangerous man who cannot
Speaker 2: distinguish truth from reality and whose mind is broken. In
Speaker 2: the George Stephanopolis interview, what are some of the other
Speaker 2: things that Biden said? Biden repeatedly insisted that it was
Speaker 2: his decision, his problem, his fault, that the debate went
Speaker 2: poorly all around. People were urging him to broke staffers
Speaker 2: under the bus for debate prep, and his top priority
Speaker 2: in this limited period of time to talk to George
Speaker 2: Seth Knopolis that he insisted on several times, was to
Speaker 2: make sure everybody knew the bucks stopped with him. That
Speaker 2: is why he is a good president. That is why
Speaker 2: he builds a good team. That is why people trust him.
Speaker 2: That is why international leaders trust him. That is still
Speaker 2: true and Donald Trump. Joe Biden took responsibility in that
Speaker 2: Stephanoppolis interview, that one Stephanopolis interview, more than Donald Trump
Speaker 2: has his entire life. So the comparison, you know, I've
Speaker 2: had grandfathers and family members who have had Parkinson's and
Speaker 2: have had Alzheimer's as strong as an ox, and there
Speaker 2: are differences. And what Biden showed in that interview with
Speaker 2: Stephanopolis as well as in his interview with Morning Joe
Speaker 2: is the kind of rule that you get. And people
Speaker 2: are criticizing him for reading off of a list, reading notes.
Speaker 2: I have notes right now. Presidents should be using notes
Speaker 2: when they're presidenting, I think, and they're upset with him
Speaker 2: for having actually the only psychologically healthy response to this
Speaker 2: terrible moment, which is to say, Donald Trump could be
Speaker 2: president and I can only do my best. That's the
Speaker 2: psychologically healthy responsibi. And so in all of these things, I'm.
Speaker 4: Like, oh, Bike is right.
Speaker 7: So Jank, Let's say that Biden does end up stepping aside.
Speaker 7: And in that hypothetical, there are a lot of Democrats
Speaker 7: who are saying that, Okay, it's Kamala's and we're all
Speaker 7: going to rally behind Kamala jank Where are you on
Speaker 7: that and what do you think Democrats should do in
Speaker 7: order to get a new nominee if Biden does drop
Speaker 7: out and get Dmitri's take on that as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm going to answer that in one second.
Speaker 1: I just got to mention a couple of things that
Speaker 1: were mentioned earlier. So first of all, I think Biden
Speaker 1: is the goodest candidate. When you're trying to prove that
Speaker 1: you're the best candidate, and you're saying you're the goodest candidate,
Speaker 1: come on, brother, George Stephanopvlis said today, Yeah, after the interview,
Speaker 1: I don't think you could make it another four years,
Speaker 1: which goes to the three Am point that you made, Dmitri,
Speaker 1: which actually is a point that one of our members
Speaker 1: on Young Turks made which I thought was so smart.
Speaker 1: You get the call three am, you say, hey, Trump
Speaker 1: would be worse. I get it, brother, That's why we're
Speaker 1: all working over time to try to defeat him. And
Speaker 1: Biden always says, don't compare me to the almighty, compare
Speaker 1: me to the alternative. But the alternative isn't just Trump.
Speaker 1: The alternative is a better Democratic candidate, and so when
Speaker 1: next three am call comes in, you're saying the administrative
Speaker 1: state would handle it. But then we're putting up the
Speaker 1: administrative state as our candidate. And what are we going
Speaker 1: to do pull a fine sign and wheel him around
Speaker 1: for four years and pretend he's president when the administrative
Speaker 1: state is the president. And then and then we're saying
Speaker 1: we're trying to protect democracy. That makes a mockery out
Speaker 1: of democracy. We cannot go in that direction. We have
Speaker 1: to be the defenders of democracy. We have to be
Speaker 1: the defenders of truth. And with Joe Biden, we're in
Speaker 1: a massive hole on both lying because he's in my
Speaker 1: opinion and in the opinion of seventy two percent of Americas,
Speaker 1: clearly lying about his mental condition. And you know, we
Speaker 1: want stability and someone to make the right decisions. Here
Speaker 1: we go again, right, And so it's these are two
Speaker 1: giant problems that other Democrats wouldn't have. So now that
Speaker 1: goes to Ryan's question.
Speaker 7: Well before we go to Kamla, because I think that's
Speaker 7: a really important point that I want to hear. Dmitri's
Speaker 7: response to that is that is my read here that
Speaker 7: democrats are sacrificing all of their credibility when they say
Speaker 7: that democracy is on the line, and then and then
Speaker 7: also saying, actually the president's kind of overrated. Whoever the
Speaker 7: president is, just the administrative state is going to run
Speaker 7: it or by saying something that people don't believe with
Speaker 7: their own eyes and that they don't have the credibility
Speaker 7: to lose. So how concerned are you about about Jenk's
Speaker 7: point there that if Democrats are running on the idea
Speaker 7: that if actually things will be fine, there's a whole state,
Speaker 7: there's a whole apparatus of advisors around him, that that
Speaker 7: undermines democrats credibility with voters when they go to say,
Speaker 7: we're here running to defend democracy.
Speaker 4: So there's two things about that, Ryan.
Speaker 2: One is, remember I was stipulating, let's assume that Sayk
Speaker 2: and the seventy two million Americans are right, and let's
Speaker 2: assume all that. Even then the team around Biden and
Speaker 2: the instincts of Biden, the instincts to take personal accountability,
Speaker 2: if you guys are right, lost it.
Speaker 4: Then he even has lost instinct, his instincts sort of
Speaker 4: hit personal accountability. That's significant.
Speaker 2: The broader point, however, is that actually I don't agree
Speaker 2: with these points I don't agree, Like it is true
Speaker 2: that you know, for a long time humans looked up
Speaker 2: at the sun and saw that at circled bure and
Speaker 2: we saw it with their own eyes, and of course
Speaker 2: any alternative was silly. And then and then we're like,
Speaker 2: oh right, actually, your circles the sun is possible to do. Mad,
Speaker 2: check your priors, check your eyes. And in this case,
Speaker 2: this is a guy who is competent and in terms
Speaker 2: of his ability to beat Trump, to be clear, it
Speaker 2: is a close call as to whether there is another
Speaker 2: human being other than Joe Biden who can unite the
Speaker 2: Democratic Party and defeat Donald Trump. To date, he is
Speaker 2: the only one who's done that. He's the only one
Speaker 2: who did it last time. He's the only one who
Speaker 2: done it has done it this time. And the reason
Speaker 2: he's done it. You guys are talking about a bunch
Speaker 2: of things that are bad about Joe Biden, and that's fine,
Speaker 2: not saying they're not bad. Whatever thing is, there are
Speaker 2: also things they're good about Joe Biden, things that the
Speaker 2: Americans trust.
Speaker 4: About Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: The MAGA Global movement has spent an enormous amount of
Speaker 2: money and resources to persuade swing voters that Joe Biden's
Speaker 2: ruped and it's failed. It succeeded against everybody else, but
Speaker 2: it failed against him. That is his superpower. People cannot
Speaker 2: unsee Biden's honesty and decency any more than they can
Speaker 2: unsee Donald Trump's business acumen. Now I think Donald Trump
Speaker 2: doesn't have any business acumen, but I'm not going to
Speaker 2: be able to persuade swing voters that it's baked in.
Speaker 4: Same thing for Biden.
Speaker 2: Biden has a unique grand strength that makes him uniquely
Speaker 2: good against Donald Trump. And that is what he believes,
Speaker 2: and that is what I believe. Now you don't believe it, fine,
Speaker 2: but remember it's his decision.
Speaker 4: He was the nominee. So I am not saying that.
Speaker 2: I very much believe that the presidency is at stake.
Speaker 2: I very much believe that which of these two presidents
Speaker 2: as president matters greatly. I very much believe that is
Speaker 2: the sort of person, even if he was all things
Speaker 2: Sank said, that's a guy who keeps a Trump prosecutor
Speaker 2: in place to put his own son in jail. He's
Speaker 2: the guy that sits for a deposition with Robert Hurr
Speaker 2: even when our ally is being attacked on October seventh.
Speaker 2: He's the guy who will step down peacefully if he
Speaker 2: loses this election, even though Donald Trump has promised to
Speaker 2: use the state against him. These are indications of a
Speaker 2: tremendous commitment to the rule of law, and for us
Speaker 2: to judge that someone else will be better, I'm sure
Speaker 2: that's debatable.
Speaker 4: I don't think so, he doesn't think so.
Speaker 2: You know, the Democratic swing voters continue, Yes, they don't
Speaker 2: like him, but if you compare him to the other alternative.
Speaker 6: Jenk any response to that or should we talk?
Speaker 1: Yeah, real quick, guys. Trump's two biggest problems we all
Speaker 1: agree and I've said before, is he's a giant, pathological liar.
Speaker 1: But now the country thinks Joe Biden is lying about
Speaker 1: his mental health. A huge percentage of the country thinks that.
Speaker 1: Up to eighty percent of the country thinks he's lying
Speaker 1: about his mental health. That is, so there goes your
Speaker 1: advantage against Trump. In fact, when they pull it now
Speaker 1: more people think Biden's lying, So why are we giving
Speaker 1: away all of our advantages? The second giant problem with
Speaker 1: Trump is that he won't let go of power. That's
Speaker 1: why we had January sixth and his coup plot and
Speaker 1: all of that, And what's Joe Biden doing now? He
Speaker 1: won't let go of power even though he's clearly the
Speaker 1: worst candidate for the Democrats. So there goes our two
Speaker 1: best talking points. And look, Dimitri, you could easily, like
Speaker 1: you said, all the business acumen for Trump is baked in.
Speaker 1: That's not true. Put up a candidate that is tough,
Speaker 1: like for example, Look, I could tear down his business
Speaker 1: acumen in one debate. I could totally and utterly embarrass
Speaker 1: him and create a giant national conversation about what a
Speaker 1: loser he is, how he went bankrupt six different times.
Speaker 1: They couldn't manage his way out of a wet paper bag,
Speaker 1: his daddy's little boy, and he lost daddy's four hundred
Speaker 1: million dollars. Then he lost his second daddy's four hundred
Speaker 1: million dollars. That was the money that Jeff Zucker gave
Speaker 1: him through the Apprentice. The biggest loser in business history
Speaker 1: in America. Why didn't Joe Biden say any of that?
Speaker 1: Why don't they actually fight him? And instead Joe Biden
Speaker 1: said that he was going to defeat Medicare during the debate.
Speaker 1: This is madness, total other matters, And I say, as
Speaker 1: I said last night on social media, it's not just
Speaker 1: Joe Biden that's in mental decline. If we make him
Speaker 1: our candidate, the whole party's in mental decline. If we
Speaker 1: select Joe Biden as our strongest candidate. I'm not willing
Speaker 1: to insult the Democratic Party like that, And so that's
Speaker 1: where I'm at with that now. In terms of Kama Harris,
Speaker 1: we want to make the same mistake again. We want
Speaker 1: to anoint. Stop anointing the Democratic leadership. Honestly, I think
Speaker 1: are a bunch of morons. You want those guys to
Speaker 1: pick the best leader. They almost always picked the worst candidate,
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton, and they were positive she was gonna win.
Speaker 1: What happened? You lost? You don't know what you're doing.
Speaker 1: And not only did you lose, you lost an imbecile.
Speaker 1: It's humiliating. And here you are again losing to an imbecile,
Speaker 1: and an imbecile who that tried to coop against America,
Speaker 1: who has the thirty four felony convictions that people love
Speaker 1: to talk about. But yet the Democratic leadership, in their
Speaker 1: infinite stupidity, are still losing to them, and now might
Speaker 1: lose to them in a landslide. No, I don't want
Speaker 1: a Democratic leader anywhere near annoinking a leader and I
Speaker 1: don't care. Oh my god, Oh she's a VP. That
Speaker 1: has nothing to do with the candidacy. That's just for
Speaker 1: the presidency. So something that God forbid happened to Joe Biden,
Speaker 1: and she's the president. That's great, of boards, of course,
Speaker 1: there's no question about that. But in terms of the candidate,
Speaker 1: for once, why don't we pick the strongest candidate? These
Speaker 1: are the delegates of the convention, are all Joe Biden delegates.
Speaker 1: Don't worry. They're not going to pick up progressive. They're
Speaker 1: not going to come within continents of a progressive Okay,
Speaker 1: there's no way it's Bernie or anyone in that camp.
Speaker 1: They're just to pick between two corporate Democrats. Everything's going
Speaker 1: to be okay, okay, But just that's like the last
Speaker 1: piece of democracy we have left. At least, let the
Speaker 1: delegates decide instead of a bunch of eighty year olds
Speaker 1: in a closed room somewhere to go. Oh, what do
Speaker 1: you think? I don't know. Let's clebertylong, Joe. No, No,
Speaker 1: let the delegates.
Speaker 6: Decide, Dimitri, isn't there a possibility that.
Speaker 7: By letting a hungry, a public that is hungry for
Speaker 7: some type of relationship with its government.
Speaker 6: Letting letting the public have that through an open convention.
Speaker 7: Could could break something could could could kind of break
Speaker 7: the spell that Donald Trump has over his ability to
Speaker 7: just kind of dominate the airwaves, and could connect the
Speaker 7: public to the Democratic Party through the spectacle of an
Speaker 7: open convention.
Speaker 2: So all of you are making assumptions about the way
Speaker 2: that American the American public chooses its president that are
Speaker 2: assumptions that I do not hold.
Speaker 4: I do not believe that.
Speaker 2: Asking two thousand delegates to choose on their own what
Speaker 2: they want after fourteen million Democrats have voted is a
Speaker 2: low risk endeavor. I don't think that asking two thousand
Speaker 2: delegates to reject the primary votes and decide on their
Speaker 2: own is a pro democracy move. And I don't think
Speaker 2: an open convention in Chicago that manages to get the
Speaker 2: incumbent to step down is guaranteed to keep the White House.
Speaker 2: In fact, I'm pretty sure that's how Richard Nixon one
Speaker 2: in nineteen sixty eight exactly.
Speaker 4: So the question is not whether jenk and I can.
Speaker 2: Persuade a people, a group of a roomful of people
Speaker 2: that are rational that Donald Trump is a business failure.
Speaker 2: It is that I have tried that, as has Ads,
Speaker 2: did the Hillary campaign, as did the Biden campaign.
Speaker 4: And it doesn't work.
Speaker 2: We break our pick on that when we're in front
Speaker 2: of a general audience because they can't unsee the brand
Speaker 2: of the apprentice. Similarly, the MAGA media has spent I
Speaker 2: think over a billion dollars if you include a government
Speaker 2: action persuading the public that Joe is corrupt. And maybe
Speaker 2: they think he's lying about health right now, but in
Speaker 2: general swing voters do not believe it. So there are
Speaker 2: some things that cannot be unseen in this electoral environment.
Speaker 2: And again I think you have to be conscious of
Speaker 2: what's happening with the bad guys, right the misinformation that
Speaker 2: is going to come at the nominees in an open
Speaker 2: convention as we're all debating those two thousand delegates. The
Speaker 2: thing about those two thousand delegates is they're much more
Speaker 2: susceptible to your influence than the fourteen million voters are.
Speaker 2: And so really the question is are we doing the
Speaker 2: same thing at are we doing the same thing in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four as we did in twenty sixteen? And
Speaker 2: Jen is saying that I'm the one who's making the mistake,
Speaker 2: and I'm saying no, no, no. Everybody told in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 2: everybody told Joe Biden to stepped down. Everybody was sure
Speaker 2: he was too old and two for all sorts of
Speaker 2: personal reasons, unfit to either be the nominee or the president.
Speaker 2: They told him that in twenty sixteen, and he engaged
Speaker 2: in the selfless act of stepping away from a life's
Speaker 2: work because he believed them, and the entire world suffered
Speaker 2: because they were wrong. Same people are the same points
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty, same people are making the same points.
Speaker 2: Now now I know new people are making those points
Speaker 2: as well. So it's not a universal indictment. But the
Speaker 2: democratic process and the deliberative process that chose Joe Biden
Speaker 2: is the process.
Speaker 1: That we have.
Speaker 2: It is how American democracy works. The parties choose candidates
Speaker 2: and then the nation choose between them. The nation is
Speaker 2: never happy, but you have to actually be able to
Speaker 2: win the Democratic Party nomination and beat President Trump in
Speaker 2: order to be a defense. And the idea that if
Speaker 2: Joe were to release his nominees and we had an
Speaker 2: open convention, fine, the idea that it's someone other than
Speaker 2: Kamla is again like, that's just not how this is
Speaker 2: going to work.
Speaker 4: This is going to be Kamala's bye.
Speaker 1: Why the organist on picking the weakest candidates? Why don't
Speaker 1: we have a real competition?
Speaker 2: And you are saying real competition meaning the process you want.
Speaker 2: You're saying, we've had a process to choose a Democratic
Speaker 2: Party nomination that has been this way for decades and
Speaker 2: now we the media.
Speaker 4: Folks, are certain that it's wrong, so we want.
Speaker 2: To break it completely, break it, take away the votes
Speaker 2: from those fourteen million, give it to the two thousand,
Speaker 2: and then, not only that, we want to break some
Speaker 2: more rules and insist that they don't do what their
Speaker 2: natural default is, which is go to VP Harris.
Speaker 4: So we alienate all the Biden people. We alienate all
Speaker 4: the Harris people.
Speaker 1: There are no.
Speaker 4: You are just living in a bubble, my friend.
Speaker 1: That is no, no, no, no, no, no, no, Dmitri.
Speaker 1: Every Biden person would vote for whoever the Democratic candidate is. Period.
Speaker 1: There's not one Biden voter who would leave the Democratic
Speaker 1: Party because it's a different candidate and different.
Speaker 2: No, no, you're a different thing, Jenk. You're saying you
Speaker 2: would still vote for Biden over Trump. So that's not
Speaker 2: the question. The question is will there be Democrats who
Speaker 2: be furious if there is a movement to overturn the
Speaker 2: votes for Biden and then also kicks out Harris the
Speaker 2: minute that happens. You weren't, by the way, the Republican Party.
Speaker 2: I will tell you this, Jan if I could get
Speaker 2: box media elites and Republican elected officials to have this
Speaker 2: degree of conversation about Donald Trump, would we would beat
Speaker 2: him by ten points. He is a much more obviously
Speaker 2: worse candidate now than he was four years ago. Biden
Speaker 2: and Trump ran against each other four years ago, Biden won.
Speaker 2: Trump has accumulated huge vulnerabilities. We are not talking about those.
Speaker 5: Republicans had an actual primary with Ron DeSantis and other candidates,
Speaker 5: and there was a and jenk I was going to ask,
Speaker 5: maybe you can speak to this because you've been involved
Speaker 5: in the campaign space. Democrats did not do that this
Speaker 5: time around with Joe Biden. And there's a sense actually
Speaker 5: among some people that there wasn't really ever a primary.
Speaker 5: There wasn't really ever a debate about Joe Biden, despite
Speaker 5: public polling that showed a significant chunk of Democrats and independents.
Speaker 5: We're looking into other candidates, and we're interested in other candidates.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so a lot of people, a lot of people.
Speaker 2: Jim The reason no one I am is because everybody
Speaker 2: knew he was going to win, because he was by
Speaker 2: far more popular than any other name. First, and you're
Speaker 2: setting all these polls. People want someone else. It has
Speaker 2: to be a specific someone else. So this movement to
Speaker 2: house Joe right now is evenly divided by people who
Speaker 2: want Joe to step down so the Kamala vice president
Speaker 2: and people who want Joe to step down so that
Speaker 2: Kamala is not on the ticket. Those two movements will
Speaker 2: be at each other's roads the second that Biden steps down, and.
Speaker 4: That has been the case since day one. You can
Speaker 4: have a.
Speaker 2: Primary against a sitting incumbent like Ted Kennedy did against
Speaker 2: Jimmy Carter. You still lose. You still have Carter. You
Speaker 2: just weaken Carter. Same thing for George H. W. Bush
Speaker 2: against Papia. It get to run a primary campaign against
Speaker 2: someone who is by far more popular than anyone else,
Speaker 2: you'll still get that scene nominee, and everybody knew it.
Speaker 4: Look, you you are can't see politics, my friends.
Speaker 1: Okay, So First of all, I mean, you're in favor
Speaker 1: of a guy whose brain is melting, So I don't
Speaker 1: know who's in fantasy politics land. Okay, So number one.
Speaker 1: In nineteen sixty eight, there was a challenge to a
Speaker 1: city incumbent and it was spectacularly successful. And if Bobby
Speaker 1: Kennedy had not been assassinated, it would have worked and
Speaker 1: we would have had the presidency. It was the right
Speaker 1: thing to do to force the incumbent out. There are
Speaker 1: situation doesn't it depend? Is incumbent popular, Is the incumbent
Speaker 1: deeply unpopular? Does the incumbent have a brain? Does the
Speaker 1: incumbent not have a brain. These things are relevant, and
Speaker 1: so when they ran against Lyndon Johnson, they easily knocked
Speaker 1: him out. Now that was back in the day when
Speaker 1: we had real primaries. These days, the primaries are a joke.
Speaker 1: I was in it. Florida's like, we're canceling the election.
Speaker 1: There's no election, and shut up. Biden's the candidate. Now
Speaker 1: forget me and the Marianne and Dean Phillips. Right, although
Speaker 1: Mariann got into like twelve that's that's a giant number.
Speaker 1: The people that were in the debates in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1: On the Democratic side, we're at two percent, three percent,
Speaker 1: one percent, and by that metric, we should have all
Speaker 1: been in the debate, including me. But how about RFK.
Speaker 1: He was over twenty points, and they're like, no, no debate,
Speaker 1: shut up, there'll be no debate. It's Joe Biden and
Speaker 1: you'll like it. And if, by the way, if you
Speaker 1: guys persistent being in the election, we're going to cancel them.
Speaker 1: They canceled Florida, North Carolina and Tennessee. They took off
Speaker 1: all the challenges to Joe Biden. The DNC is an
Speaker 1: obvious joke. Everyone at the DNC is picked by Joe Biden.
Speaker 1: They're all gonna get fired if Joe Biden isn't the candidate.
Speaker 1: So they're hanging on for dear life. They care about
Speaker 1: their checks much more than they care about the voters.
Speaker 1: This is insanity. Look, we're talking about democracy and risk.
Speaker 1: So those are the conversations we were just having. So
Speaker 1: number one, on risk, you're always he's going to have
Speaker 1: some risk, just saying like, oh, oh my god, if
Speaker 1: we pick someone interesting and popular like Gretchen Whitmer or
Speaker 1: Josh Shapiro, there's risk. Yeah, Well, of course there's risk
Speaker 1: with anyone, right, The question isn't that, The question is
Speaker 1: which side creates more risk. Does having a guy that's
Speaker 1: seventy two to eighty percent of the country doesn't think
Speaker 1: his mind is working greater risk? Or is it greater
Speaker 1: risk to pick a successful young governor. No, of course
Speaker 1: it's a greater risk to pick the guy who's eighty
Speaker 1: one in the country doesn't think is functioning. Of course
Speaker 1: it's a smaller risk if you pick a successful, great, energetic,
Speaker 1: young Democratic governor. That is a smaller risk, it is inarguable.
Speaker 1: And then on democracy, look, since the primaries are a
Speaker 1: joke in the Democratic Party first of all, and we're
Speaker 1: running on democracies on the line, are you kidding me?
Speaker 1: And then you cancel elections in the primaries, you won't
Speaker 1: ever allow a debate, And how stupid it was that
Speaker 1: it pushed RFK Junior out of the Democratic Party. Now
Speaker 1: he's an albatrust around her neck in the general election
Speaker 1: because of the idiocy of the DNC that pushed him out.
Speaker 1: Why don't you just have a debate. And if Joe
Speaker 1: Biden's dynamic guy you're talking about, he would eviscerate RK right,
Speaker 1: And guys, think about it, if they had a real
Speaker 1: debate with Bobby Kennedy, Marianne Dean Phillips, myself, and Joe Biden. Right,
Speaker 1: who do you think wins that debate? I mean you
Speaker 1: think like, oh, Joe Biden, legendary politician, Democrat president bunto Dude,
Speaker 1: you know you're worried that he's going to lose. First
Speaker 1: of all, I would annihilate him and everyone knows that.
Speaker 1: And so if he can't withstand a talk show, a YouTube,
Speaker 1: the online talk show host in a debate, we're going
Speaker 1: to put that guy up as a candidate. Come on,
Speaker 1: come on, come on, this is madness. We're worried he's
Speaker 1: going to lose to Mary On Williamson and a debate,
Speaker 1: and we're putting that guy up. So we're past doing
Speaker 1: a real Democratic primary. It didn't happen. It's too late.
Speaker 1: Let's do it in twenty twenty eight. Kick out and
Speaker 1: fire everyone at the DNC for the most incompetent losers
Speaker 1: there ever was. They always pick the worst candidates. They're
Speaker 1: deeply corrupt. Okay, Now, at an open convention, what would
Speaker 1: happen is something that looks like democracy and acts like democracy,
Speaker 1: where people are jostling for position. They're making their case
Speaker 1: why they would be the best candidate, why they were
Speaker 1: a terrific governor in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and the list
Speaker 1: in California. The list goes on. So we would get
Speaker 1: billions of dollars in free media coverage. It would be
Speaker 1: political malpractice to throw that away. If we have a
Speaker 1: convention that is not interesting, that is not an open convension,
Speaker 1: nobody's gonna watch it. Right, If you have an open convension,
Speaker 1: the whole world will watch it. Everybody in the country
Speaker 1: will watch it, and they'll watch us competing over lo's
Speaker 1: the best candidate. That looks like democracy. Then that candidate
Speaker 1: gets to come out of that convention super strong because
Speaker 1: they won the delegates, they proved themselves, and they get
Speaker 1: to say, you just saw the democratic process with your
Speaker 1: own eyes, and that's why I'm going to protect democracy.
Speaker 1: And obviously Donald Trump isn't. It's a layup. We just
Speaker 1: have to have the courage to do the most obvious thing.
Speaker 7: Dmitria, I got a final question for you, guys, but
Speaker 7: I'm curious for your your read on that. I mean,
Speaker 7: that's I've been making that case in my newsletter. That's
Speaker 7: utterly persuasive to me. What's wrong with that?
Speaker 4: I think that you guys are living in a version
Speaker 4: of American is better.
Speaker 2: It's the version of American politics that I believe was
Speaker 2: the reality maybe in twenty fifteen.
Speaker 4: I don't think that the scenario that you're playing out
Speaker 4: is remotely.
Speaker 2: Close to what will actually happen in the world that
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is in and in the world that his
Speaker 2: movement has infected. I think that the free media we
Speaker 2: get of such a Chicago convention will be a lot
Speaker 2: like the pree media Democrats got in nineteen sixty eight,
Speaker 2: which is a portrayal to swing voters that Democrats are
Speaker 2: chaotic and that that is why you need a strong man.
Speaker 2: I also think that this entire discussion about who will
Speaker 2: beat Donald Trump, you're talking about it generically as if
Speaker 2: he is a obviously blog candidate. I think all of
Speaker 2: you are dramatically underestimating how successful this kind of a
Speaker 2: movement can be, because humans kind of want that, and
Speaker 2: we have to fight against that.
Speaker 4: And to fight against that, you need a brand.
Speaker 2: That appeals to swing voters in a way that blunts
Speaker 2: Donald Trump's direct attack.
Speaker 4: No, none of the candidates other than Biden have that.
Speaker 4: None of them. I like them, I will support them.
Speaker 4: Any of them is the nominee. I will go to
Speaker 4: war for them. None of them have what Biden has.
Speaker 2: And so I think you're just feeling to understand the
Speaker 2: unique appeal of Donald Trump and the unique defenses that
Speaker 2: Biden has against that that make him different than all
Speaker 2: these other candidates that you're talking about.
Speaker 7: While we have both you here and in the remaining
Speaker 7: time that we have, I wanted it brought it out
Speaker 7: to a slightly higher ideological level here. And so for
Speaker 7: viewers who don't know, obviously, Jank represents kind of the
Speaker 7: kind of left flank of the Democratic coalition. Dimitri is
Speaker 7: kind of an avatar for the center left, not just
Speaker 7: an avatar, but also a significant funder.
Speaker 6: And I'll describe it. You correct me if I'm wrong, Dmitri.
Speaker 7: You know, one of the main packs that you found,
Speaker 7: mainstream Democrats pack often has gone after kind of squad
Speaker 7: and squad adjacent members, arguing that it's doing so for
Speaker 7: the benefit of the Democratic Party, that those candidates say
Speaker 7: unpopular things that make it harder than for Democrats as
Speaker 7: a whole to run that pack is tied at the
Speaker 7: hip kind of a democratic majority for Israel, which is
Speaker 7: tied at the hip with a pack and has a
Speaker 7: kind of clear agenda within the Democratic coalition. So in
Speaker 7: France recently you saw so and Jenk and I people
Speaker 7: like me have always argued, if you're going to fend
Speaker 7: off the far right, you have to have something, you know,
Speaker 7: you got to galvanize people with something.
Speaker 6: You can't beat something with nothing.
Speaker 7: And so what we saw in France recently was interesting,
Speaker 7: the complete and total collapse of the center and the
Speaker 7: rise of the left in fending off the pen and
Speaker 7: the far right.
Speaker 6: And so what what did did you take anything away
Speaker 6: from that?
Speaker 7: And you say, you know what, maybe Jenk and Ryan
Speaker 7: are right, and we should be funneling all hundreds of
Speaker 7: millions of dollars into the kind of left wing of
Speaker 7: the Democratic parties.
Speaker 6: That you have something to beat something with, You're right, I.
Speaker 4: Just of course not so that we think that, yeah,
Speaker 4: you did the thing.
Speaker 2: Look, there are situations where that can work, Like a
Speaker 2: mid term election in the United States is very different
Speaker 2: from presidential election.
Speaker 4: A parliamentary system is very different than our system.
Speaker 2: An election that is called on a spot basis, like,
Speaker 2: these are all very different of settings. Different democracies have
Speaker 2: different systems. Cuba had a democracy, Putin has a voting.
Speaker 2: You know, different kinds of democracies work in different ways.
Speaker 2: Our democracy works in this way. The parties choose nominees,
Speaker 2: the public chooses in a presidential election. In this presidential election,
Speaker 2: there's about five million voters in about four or five
Speaker 2: states that are actually going to decide this whole thing.
Speaker 2: And those people live in a very specific information environment
Speaker 2: where they're basically sure that Joe is decent buttled. They're
Speaker 2: sure that Trump is a successful businessman but a little dangerous.
Speaker 4: And it's a debate.
Speaker 2: The strong man debate is do you need the cleansing
Speaker 2: fire of a strong man to purge the system or
Speaker 2: can the system hold? In France, the center rallied to
Speaker 2: the left as a way of fighting against the right,
Speaker 2: and thank God, in that midterm and if the left
Speaker 2: is able to present someone who is a competitive, good
Speaker 2: figure against Trump, God bless.
Speaker 4: The thing that I observed in twenty.
Speaker 2: Eighteen is that Democrats who are running in plus ten
Speaker 2: districts tended to have ideas for how to win in
Speaker 2: swing districts that didn't work. And so when you've got
Speaker 2: people out there like Corey Bush is someone we're supporting,
Speaker 2: Wesley Bell. Wesley Bell's a great guy. Corey Bush wants
Speaker 2: to actually defund the police as a very unpopular position.
Speaker 2: We have a sitting member of Congress who says there
Speaker 2: shouldn't be any police forces. That's deeply unpopular across the board.
Speaker 2: That is the kind of argument that the right makes
Speaker 2: when they say Joe Biden's week, Look who's behind him.
Speaker 2: Corey Bush, a member of Congress, actually says we shouldn't
Speaker 2: have police. That's the sort of thing that we just
Speaker 2: have to beat, have to manage in order to win
Speaker 2: in this country in this kind of an election.
Speaker 6: Jank any response, Yeah, okay, Yeah, I have a lot
Speaker 6: of response.
Speaker 1: Number One, The reason why they're spending millions upon millions
Speaker 1: of dollars against Corey Bush isn't because she wants to
Speaker 1: defund the police, is because she wants to defund Israel.
Speaker 1: It real that Hey, can I just can I just
Speaker 1: on that.
Speaker 2: I think, just to be clear, one thing that you said, Ryan,
Speaker 2: we do not like a PAK. We do not agree
Speaker 2: with APAK. And when Democratic majority for Israel asked us
Speaker 2: to support them, we said no, because you're affiliated with
Speaker 2: a pack and I think bb Nesagnanhu is a war criminal.
Speaker 4: Okay, So just to be clear, Okay.
Speaker 6: That's not I have.
Speaker 4: That is not why I'm the point.
Speaker 6: Yeah, the relationship that has And yeah, Jank too.
Speaker 7: In Dmitri's defense, I guess I would say he's been
Speaker 7: gunning for Corey Bush long before October seventh, right, I was.
Speaker 2: Also gunning for Bob Menendez, who's pro Israel. So just
Speaker 2: on that particular thing, like I want democrats out who
Speaker 2: are terrible for our brand, and the getting focused on
Speaker 2: were Corey and Bob.
Speaker 1: No, Dmitri, I get it, And it's nothing personal about
Speaker 1: you at all. Right, And but the reality is APAK
Speaker 1: is out there and they use things like defund police,
Speaker 1: which you might genuinely care about them, by the way,
Speaker 1: I do. I think it's a bad idea. That's not
Speaker 1: the left that I'm in favor of, which I'm going
Speaker 1: to get to in a second. But the real reason
Speaker 1: they are spending all that money against Bowman, Bush and
Speaker 1: all these other candidates Nina Turner et cetera, is on
Speaker 1: Israel and Israel alone. That is the number one them.
Speaker 1: They've spent twenty million in those three races alone. That
Speaker 1: is a preposterous number. And it's only because they will
Speaker 1: not bow their heads to Israel. And that's just a
Speaker 1: fact that anyone denying that is denying reality. Okay, so
Speaker 1: that's fine, that's what's happening in the primaries. I get it.
Speaker 1: That's and the problem and out, but it does connect
Speaker 1: to this. There is a feeling of discomfort from the
Speaker 1: donor class about the delegates picking because for the first
Speaker 1: time it's not the donor's picking, and that makes them very,
Speaker 1: very uncomfortable. They like having the reigns of power. I
Speaker 1: don't blame them, I get it. They're, you know, masters
Speaker 1: of the universe. They have billions of dollars and they
Speaker 1: want to pick, and they want to buy the candidate.
Speaker 1: And in a convention they won't be able to buy
Speaker 1: the candidate. I mean they do because they're all Biden
Speaker 1: delegates anyway, But it just loosening to raise that tiny
Speaker 1: bit is scarce the hell out of them. They're like
Speaker 1: big risk, big risk donors will not be in charge
Speaker 1: giant risk. Keep it real. So now, in terms of
Speaker 1: who's going to win, and who's actually good candidates along
Speaker 1: ideological grounds. Guys, this is crystal clear and people can't
Speaker 1: understand it. But I think I have the Rosetta stone.
Speaker 1: They're like, wait, why did UK go Brexit and then
Speaker 1: record victory for labor? Why did Brazil go Lula, then
Speaker 1: Bolsnara then Lula? Wait a minute, left, right, left, right,
Speaker 1: everybody's going left right NonStop. What the hell's going on here? Right? Well,
Speaker 1: the answer is they're not going left or right. They're
Speaker 1: going for change because everyone hates this corporate system that
Speaker 1: we all live under, and they have it. They know
Speaker 1: in their bones. The politicians serve the donors all across
Speaker 1: the world, and they serve corporations and their interest because
Speaker 1: they have all the money. So the minute anyone raises
Speaker 1: their hand on the right or left and says I'm
Speaker 1: a populist and I'm not serving those guys, they skyrocket
Speaker 1: up and win. That party that won in France. It's
Speaker 1: existed for only a month, and they didn't win because
Speaker 1: they're radical left on social issues. They won because they're
Speaker 1: at difference. They're not the incumbents. They're change. And the
Speaker 1: number one thing that works across the world is economic populism.
Speaker 1: So Ryan, I know why you characterize me as the
Speaker 1: guy on the left flank of the Democratic Party, and
Speaker 1: that is fair and that is accurate. But the main
Speaker 1: thing I focus on is not the social issues. It's
Speaker 1: economic populism, the thing that took from Bernie Sanders from
Speaker 1: two percent to forty eight percent in twenty sixteen when
Speaker 1: no one expected it. For God's sake, when are we
Speaker 1: finally going to deliver for the voters? Give them higher
Speaker 1: wages through increasing minim wage, give them paid family leave,
Speaker 1: give them universal health care. And the Democrats WI always say, oh, yeah, sure,
Speaker 1: we'll do it, Wig, and then they come in and
Speaker 1: they don't do anything, and then they go, why won't
Speaker 1: they wont for incumbents after we've betrayed every single thing
Speaker 1: we said we were going to do. This is not
Speaker 1: rocket science. Pick someone who's an actual economic populist and
Speaker 1: a new candidate, and I guarantee victory. Instead, we're going
Speaker 1: to guarantee a defeat because the donors like Joe Biden.
Speaker 1: He's a good return on investment.
Speaker 5: And Dimitri, I think this is a good place to
Speaker 5: maybe give you the last word, and I'll add a
Speaker 5: preface that George Clooney, perhaps the most high profile Biden fundraiser,
Speaker 5: has come out today with an op ed that is
Speaker 5: just headlined I love Joe Biden, but we need a
Speaker 5: new nominee. He writes that I was at this fundraiser
Speaker 5: with Biden three weeks ago, and he says it was
Speaker 5: not the Joe big effing deal Biden of twenty ten.
Speaker 5: He wasn't even the Joe Biden of twenty twenty. He
Speaker 5: was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.
Speaker 5: He says the Stephanopolis interview reinforced his opinion on that
Speaker 5: he's calling basically for an open convention, and you know,
Speaker 5: kind of what right along the lines of what Ryan
Speaker 5: was talking about. So with everything that Jank just said,
Speaker 5: I'll just toss this to you, what are you seeing
Speaker 5: that George Clooney isn't seeing. I know we've covered a
Speaker 5: lot of that ground already. And why is it wrong continuously?
Speaker 5: Why is the Jank position here wrong that if voters
Speaker 5: really want change, an open convention would be a great
Speaker 5: way to appeal to them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not clear to me that voters want change.
Speaker 2: Maybe they do, that is not I don't believe that
Speaker 2: the party that can resistance a month ago one in
Speaker 2: France because everybody digested their platform. I think they won
Speaker 2: because everybody had digested the Penn's platform.
Speaker 4: It was ann coalition. It's stewed up. That's fine.
Speaker 2: But the thing about what Sank just said, and about
Speaker 2: what Donor said, about what Looney's saying, about what democratics did,
Speaker 2: leaders were saying. They are all saying that a process
Speaker 2: with two thousand delegates should be elevated in a brand
Speaker 2: new way. We should release the delegates and have two
Speaker 2: thousand people make a decision rather than the fourteen million
Speaker 2: you've already decided and the fourteen million. Jenk says they
Speaker 2: decided because of donor influence, and they decided because it
Speaker 2: was all.
Speaker 4: Set up in advance. And yet somehow they also chose
Speaker 4: Biden in twenty twenty.
Speaker 2: Right. So I just think that at the end of
Speaker 2: the day, there is a question about whether Biden is
Speaker 2: the best person to defeat Trump or not.
Speaker 4: I believe he is.
Speaker 2: More importantly so does President Biden. And President Biden as
Speaker 2: the non means, so we need to beat Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Someone to go in the Democratic primary and then beat
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. He's the only one we've got to meet
Speaker 2: for Brigia.
Speaker 7: Well, Demitian Jenk really thank you guys for joining us,
Speaker 7: and Dimiti, thank you for making a really almost unmakable case,
Speaker 7: like it's a very difficult one, but you're out there.
Speaker 7: You're out there making it, and you may end up
Speaker 7: being right.
Speaker 6: Who knows, like and and Biden may end up staying
Speaker 6: in the race like so despite the fact that we
Speaker 6: thought he was out. Jank, thank thank you as well
Speaker 6: for joining us.
Speaker 7: As a lot of this conversation kind of made my
Speaker 7: brain hurt, but that's I think it's a good thing
Speaker 7: when your brain, when your brain hurts, Yeah, because.
Speaker 1: Jank, I'll make your brain hurt.
Speaker 6: It's a time of your memoir, all right. As the
Speaker 6: muscles repair, it gets stronger. That's right. Well jan in there.
Speaker 5: This has been fascinating. We really appreciate it. Thanks so
Speaker 5: much to both of you.
Speaker 4: Thanks Emily, Thanks Brian N. Nice to see you you too,
Speaker 4: do