1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley, and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 2: January sixth edition, as President Trump gathers the family at 7 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:32,840 Speaker 2: the Kennedy Center to talk midterm strategy, is exactly five 8 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:35,960 Speaker 2: years after the attack on the Capitol. I'm Joe Matthew 9 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 2: alongside Tyler Kendall in Washington. Thanks for joining us here 10 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:42,880 Speaker 2: on this Tuesday the President Tyler addressing the House Republican 11 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:46,559 Speaker 2: Conference about midterm strategies, along with a number of other topics, 12 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 2: including where we go next in Venezuela. 13 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:51,760 Speaker 3: Right, the President appearing to balance the domestic with the 14 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 3: foreign policy as polling has repeatedly told us that the economy, 15 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 3: of course, is the top issue for Americans. As Republicans 16 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:01,640 Speaker 3: are going into this year with incredibly slim margins. Right now, 17 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:04,319 Speaker 3: we're looking at Republicans with two hundred and eighteen to 18 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 3: two hundred and thirteen votes for Democrats. That means that 19 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 3: they right now have a two vote margin to pass 20 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:10,759 Speaker 3: anything during this year. 21 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:11,559 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right. 22 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 2: We're going to be talking a little bit more about 23 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,039 Speaker 2: that with our political panel and an important conversation straight 24 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 2: ahead with John Bolton Tyler. Awfully important here as we 25 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,679 Speaker 2: try to figure out the motivations of this administration when 26 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 2: it comes to Venezuela, but also the rest of the hemisphere, 27 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 2: and also what the fallout might be for China and Iran, 28 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 2: both of which have been mentioned repeatedly since the strikes 29 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:33,559 Speaker 2: on Saturday and the capture of Nicholas Maduro. 30 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 5: Right, We've been. 31 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 3: Talking all week on Balance of Power about the geopolitical 32 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 3: implement implications here, particularly as we have some pretty incredible 33 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 3: reporting on the Bloomberg terminal this morning. People familiar telling 34 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 3: us that the White House feels that Delsa Rodriguez is 35 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 3: best equipped to bridge the gap between the government and 36 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 3: the private sector, as it really appears that the administration 37 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 3: has its sit set on revitalizing the Venezuelan oil sector. 38 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a pretty remarkable moment that we're in. 39 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 2: Wall Street, of course, has all of this in mind, 40 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 2: and it really hasn't caused even a hiccup in trading. 41 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 2: You saw the monster rally we enjoyed yesterday, not a 42 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 2: lot different today. The S and P five hundred u 43 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 2: about a half percent thirty three points. The Nasdaq is 44 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 2: up one hundred points a half percent, the Dow adding 45 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:16,840 Speaker 2: another four hundred twenty eight points today almost one percent 46 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 2: were getting the Santa Claus rally. Maybe a little bit late, 47 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 2: but investors do not seem terribly concerned with geopolitics at 48 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 2: the moment. John Bolton, I'm sure has some ideas about 49 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 2: this though, and it's a great pleasure to have the 50 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 2: former National Security advisor with us from President Trump's first term. 51 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,920 Speaker 2: Former US Ambassador to the United Nations and founder of 52 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:38,959 Speaker 2: the Foundation for American Security and Freedom. John Bolton, Welcome 53 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:41,920 Speaker 2: back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. I know you have 54 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 2: strong feelings about this, and you've been around the block 55 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 2: when it comes to Venezuela in the first term. Can 56 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 2: I just start by asking you if you think the 57 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:50,360 Speaker 2: administration acted correctly last weekend. 58 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 6: Well, I think it was the right thing to do 59 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 6: to begin the process of getting the Maduro regime out 60 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 6: of power and turning the government of Venezuela back over 61 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 6: to the people. There's no doubt that in twenty twenty four, 62 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:09,720 Speaker 6: as in twenty eighteen, Maduro stole the election. The opposition 63 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 6: had won legitimately and really are the legitimate government of Venezuela. 64 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 4: But I think we've. 65 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 6: Removed Maduro, but the regime is still there. There's no 66 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 6: regime change at this point. And I'm very concerned that 67 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 6: the way the president attacked Maria Karina Machado, the leader 68 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:32,800 Speaker 6: of the opposition, said she didn't have respect in the country. 69 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 6: Really the opposition wasn't up to governing, and turning to 70 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 6: the likes of Delsi Rodriguez and really Maduro's henchmen and 71 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,720 Speaker 6: hench women who are still there and believing they're going 72 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 6: to be a transition. It puts us in a very 73 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 6: difficult position. I'm worried that we've removed the face of 74 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 6: the regime, but not the regime itself. 75 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, Well, to that end, I know that you 76 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 2: had concerns about Maduro in the president's first term, and 77 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 2: we did a little bit of digging on this. Having 78 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 2: had sat down with Maduro, my colleague Eric Shatzker in 79 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 2: twenty twenty one traveled to Caracas to talk to him 80 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 2: about global politics, and Maduro said at the time he 81 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 2: was in talks with the first Trump administration with you, 82 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 2: John Bolton, around a meeting at the UN General Assembly 83 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 2: in twenty eighteen. Maduro specifically implicated you as having canceled 84 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 2: that meeting. 85 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 4: Listen to what he told us in twenty twenty one. 86 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:29,000 Speaker 3: Yo. 87 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:33,719 Speaker 7: I was about to personally meet him on September twenty 88 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 7: eighteen with President Donald Trump when I went to the 89 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 7: UN General Assembly in New York. We got a call 90 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,280 Speaker 7: from the White House, but we knew about John Bolton's 91 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:45,040 Speaker 7: pressure and that of other people around Donald Trump to 92 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 7: prevent his attempt to meet me. If we had met, 93 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 7: it had been a different story today. 94 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 2: John Bolton, Is that true And to what extent, if so, 95 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:57,839 Speaker 2: did that moment inform Donald Trump's views on Venezuela today? 96 00:04:58,920 --> 00:04:59,840 Speaker 4: Well, I wish it weren't. 97 00:04:59,839 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 6: For I wish I could stop meetings like that that easily. 98 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:07,720 Speaker 6: But he's making that up. But it's a good story. 99 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:10,159 Speaker 6: So if he wants to believe it, let him tell 100 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:10,720 Speaker 6: that to the. 101 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 4: Court and Master Bolton. 102 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:18,160 Speaker 3: If we're looking at what is going to happen next here, 103 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 3: there's a lot of different messaging, a lot of different 104 00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:22,159 Speaker 3: rhetoric we hear from President Trump that the US is 105 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:24,280 Speaker 3: going to run in Venezuela. But if we look at 106 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 3: what other advisors are saying, we keep hearing the idea 107 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:29,720 Speaker 3: that there's a lot of leverage points here by the US, 108 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 3: the embargo on oil, the military armada poised still potentially 109 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:37,599 Speaker 3: pointing at Venezuela. Do you think that the US has 110 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 3: enough leverage to make change in Venezuela from afar through 111 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 3: these kind of pressure points. 112 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 4: Well, I'd like to know what the plan is. 113 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,440 Speaker 6: If that's what they think they're going to do, I'd 114 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 6: be the happiest person around if the rest of the 115 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 6: Maduro regime collapse tomorrow. But when you hear from the 116 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 6: administration the usual anonymous sources that they think they can 117 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 6: work with Delsi Rodriguez to transition to something, I don't 118 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:09,279 Speaker 6: know what the something is, and that the Venezuelan oil 119 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 6: industry is just going to emerge from the ashes and 120 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:16,600 Speaker 6: suddenly be a big producer again. I think people are dreaming. 121 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 6: I think this is a very difficult and dangerous situation. 122 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:23,720 Speaker 6: I think that the administration has acted in an ad hoc, 123 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:28,279 Speaker 6: day to day fashion that doesn't guarantee failure. But let's 124 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 6: be clear if the objective is to turn Venezuela into 125 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:36,280 Speaker 6: a society where it's people actually govern it, and maybe 126 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 6: that's not Trump's intention, but if that is, they're a 127 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,280 Speaker 6: long way from it. And anybody who thinks the Venezuelan 128 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,280 Speaker 6: oil industry is going to emerge from the ashes in 129 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:47,719 Speaker 6: a matter of weeks or months or even a couple 130 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 6: of years doesn't know how bad the situation is. 131 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 3: So then what is it going to take to help 132 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 3: fuel that turnaround? Because we have reporting, as we mentioned 133 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 3: at the top of the show, people familiar telling Bloomberg 134 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:02,159 Speaker 3: News that part of why this White House thinks that 135 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 3: it can work with Delse Rodriguez is because she could 136 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 3: serve as that bridge between the government and the private sector, 137 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 3: because it seems like there has to be such an 138 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 3: emphasis on potential investment and rebuilding the infrastructure in order 139 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 3: for Venezuela to get on sound economic footing. 140 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 6: Well, I don't know what they base that on, and 141 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 6: I'd like to know what CEO of what major American 142 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 6: oil company is just getting all of his top advisors 143 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 6: together to get on a plane to go to Caracas 144 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 6: and put billions and billions of capital expenditures into Venezuela. 145 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 6: The political situation is unstable. By the way, the price 146 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 6: of oil is still at fifty five to sixty dollars 147 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 6: a barrel. I'm not sure anybody thinks that more capital investment, 148 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 6: more drilling, more oil on the market is going to 149 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 6: benefit the oil companies at this point. 150 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 4: I think there's a. 151 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 6: Lot of hot air out there about what's going on, 152 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 6: and that's dangerous because if you're planning is not based 153 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 6: on reality, finally strikes you have no plan B to 154 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:04,640 Speaker 6: back up to. 155 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:08,680 Speaker 4: You mentioned Maria Coarina Machado. 156 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 2: She turned up on Fox News last evening, of all places, 157 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 2: on the Hannity program, presumably to get the attention of 158 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 2: Donald Trump. 159 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 4: Here's what she said. 160 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 8: I'm planning to go back to Venezuela as soon as possible, 161 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 8: as I've always said, Sean, every day I make a 162 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 8: decision where I am more useful for a cost. That's 163 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 8: why I stayed in hiding for over sixteen months, and 164 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 8: that's why I decided to go out, because I believed 165 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 8: that at this moment, I'm more useful to our costs 166 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 8: being able to speak out from where I am right now. 167 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 8: But I'm planning to go as soon as Pussle back home. 168 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 2: She's talking about sharing her Nobel Peace Prize somehow with 169 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 2: Donald Trump. 170 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:49,320 Speaker 4: Could she be a. 171 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 2: Partner or has the administration turned away from her permanently. 172 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:54,680 Speaker 3: Well. 173 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,680 Speaker 6: I think they damaged her and the opposition very badly 174 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:02,599 Speaker 6: on Saturday. I think the opposition just ordinary people inside Venezuela. 175 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 6: I wonder what it means when the US doesn't trust 176 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 6: its leadership. Now, maybe she can work her way back 177 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 6: into his good graces. My recommendation would be giving the 178 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 6: Nobel Peace Prize medal that you get. The Nobel Foundation 179 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:18,200 Speaker 6: can make another one just for you, but give it 180 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 6: to Trump. Otherwise you know what he's going to do. 181 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 6: Theodore Roosevelt won the Nobel Peace Prize for mediating the 182 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 6: war between Russia and Japan during his term as president, 183 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:30,319 Speaker 6: and his Nobel Prize hangs on the wall of the 184 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:33,440 Speaker 6: Roosevelt Room in the White House. I've been worried recently 185 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:35,560 Speaker 6: Trump's just going to take it off the wall so 186 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 6: he can have it for himself. So missus Mashadow gives 187 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:40,599 Speaker 6: him hers. Maybe that'll take care of that. 188 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 3: Wow. We also want to talk about potential ripple effects here. 189 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 3: What could come next when it comes to other countries, 190 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 3: and I'm actually particularly interested about the potential impacts for China. 191 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 3: Of course, a huge importer of Venezuelan crude. But China's 192 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:57,680 Speaker 3: made a lot of significant inroads when it comes to 193 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:02,959 Speaker 3: Latin America, signing on signatories to its belin road infrastructure initiatives. 194 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 3: Could this hurt Beijing's efforts to make those inroads in 195 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 3: Latin America? How is this changing the calculus in terms 196 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 3: of the US Beijing competition. 197 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 6: Well, I think the most important American strategic interest in 198 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 6: Venezuela is the increasing influence of malign foreign powers that 199 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:25,680 Speaker 6: don't have the best interest of the United States at heart. 200 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 6: That certainly starts with Russia and Cuba. That was the 201 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 6: main problem back in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen, But 202 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 6: Iran and China are big players on the scene now, 203 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 6: and as you say, China has an enormous concern with 204 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 6: Venezuela's oil reserves and its production. The Chinese look for 205 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:49,680 Speaker 6: oil wherever they can find it. They're an energy poor 206 00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 6: country whose economy depends on getting these foreign sources. And 207 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 6: by most estimates, including the estimates of the US government, 208 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 6: Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, more 209 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:05,840 Speaker 6: even than Saudi Arabia, and yet it produces an insignificant 210 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,680 Speaker 6: amount of oil. Of that oil it produces, China buys 211 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 6: about eighty percent of the production, according to the most 212 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 6: recent statistics. So I don't think Beijing is going to 213 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:19,839 Speaker 6: sit idly by while a new government comes in that 214 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 6: may be more hospitable to American investment and possibly exclude 215 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:28,720 Speaker 6: China from the Venezuelan reserve. So what China is doing 216 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 6: behind the scenes we don't know. There were high level 217 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 6: Chinese meeting with Maduro literally within a day or two 218 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 6: of his being grabbed over the weekend. And what policies 219 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 6: China is pursuing, what aid it may be giving to 220 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:46,320 Speaker 6: what remains of the Maduro government. What Russia and Cuba 221 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:47,559 Speaker 6: and Iran are doing. 222 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 4: We don't know. 223 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:50,880 Speaker 6: But I don't think they're just going to withdraw quietly 224 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 6: from the scene. 225 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:55,760 Speaker 2: Well, you know, as we consider what many are now 226 00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 2: referring to as the Dunrow Doctrine. John Bolton, I wonder 227 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:02,439 Speaker 2: who do you think should worry more right now, Greenland 228 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 2: or Iran. 229 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 6: Well, I think I think Iran should be more worried 230 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:12,320 Speaker 6: given the protest which continue to grow all across Iran, 231 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 6: not just in Tehran. This regime in Tehran is very weak, 232 00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 6: and I think the levels of discontent in the country 233 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 6: have never been higher, and the world would be a 234 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 6: lot safer if the regime of the Iatolas fell and 235 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 6: you could get some kind of alternative, hopefully free government 236 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:34,280 Speaker 6: in Iran. I think what Trump says about Greenland and 237 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 6: his interest in taking control of Greenland very harmful to 238 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 6: the NATO Alliance. You know, Greenland, part of Denmark, is 239 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 6: a NATO ally. 240 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 9: Denmark has been an ally of. 241 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:51,960 Speaker 6: The United States for years, and you have advisors to 242 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 6: the President saying on national television that Denmark's claim to 243 00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 6: the island is illegitimate and nobody will oppose those American 244 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 6: force if we decide to use it. If we did, 245 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 6: it would destroy the NATO Alliance. But even this chatter 246 00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:11,640 Speaker 6: is irresponsible. Isn't taking into account the real threats we 247 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 6: face in the United States. We have a legitimate security 248 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 6: interest in Greenland. So does the entire NATO Alliance. And 249 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 6: if we just took this out of the spotlight and 250 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 6: work cooperatively together, I think we could ensure greater security, 251 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 6: not just for Greenland, but for the entire alliance. 252 00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 3: All right. John Bolton, former National Security advisor in President 253 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:38,440 Speaker 3: Trump's first term, former US Ambassador to the United Nations 254 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:41,480 Speaker 3: and founder of the Foundation for American Security and Freedom. 255 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 3: Ambassador Bolton, thanks so much for joining us here on 256 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Television and Radio. And we want to extend the 257 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 3: conversation by bringing in our political panel, Rick Davis, partner 258 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:53,720 Speaker 3: at Stone Court Capital and Bloomberg Politics contributor, alongside Geenie 259 00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:57,400 Speaker 3: Shanzay and know also Bloomberg Politics contributor and Democracy Visiting 260 00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 3: fellow at Harvard Kennedy School Ash Center. Rick, let's start 261 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:02,959 Speaker 3: with you and get your reaction to what we were 262 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 3: hearing from John Bolton there and this idea of what 263 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 3: the viable path is for the Venezuelan government going forward, 264 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:14,400 Speaker 3: as it appears that the Trump administration is set to 265 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 3: work with Delse Rodriguez, but she is an extension of 266 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 3: the prior regime under Nicholas Maduro. 267 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 10: Yeah, it's always nice to hear the clear eyed analysis 268 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:27,880 Speaker 10: of John Bolton. His experience around the globe is second 269 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 10: to none, So kudos to the interview. 270 00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 4: I thought it was fantastic. 271 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:37,720 Speaker 10: The reality is that the more reporting we get on 272 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:42,080 Speaker 10: a little known Dulci Rodriguez is that she's been very 273 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 10: friendly with the energy companies, the oil companies that have 274 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 10: been doing business, specifically Chevron in the country, and so 275 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 10: it's no surprise that if the priority is oil in 276 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 10: the redevelopment of those fields, then she sort of fits 277 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 10: the bill. President Trump did give the backhand to the 278 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 10: democratically elected party headed by Marie Machado, and I'm glad 279 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 10: to hear, based on the interview that you played a 280 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:16,960 Speaker 10: clip from, that she's planning on coming. 281 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 4: Back to Venezuela because I think the Venezuela. 282 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 10: People chose her and her party to lead the country, 283 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 10: and I think the sooner she gets back in can 284 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 10: rally that activity around maybe a future election. 285 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 4: I think it can add to the future stability of 286 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 4: the country. But look, this is. 287 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:43,240 Speaker 10: A administration that has identified critical natural resources in Venezuela, 288 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 10: not just oil, as a national security priority, and they've 289 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 10: used the might of the US military to secure those 290 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 10: and I think Donald Trump's point of view is I 291 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 10: want as little domestic turmoil as I can get in 292 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 10: achieving those ends, and so I think that's the scenario 293 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 10: that we're dealing with on the ground. 294 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 2: Well, hang on, Jeanie, because I'm guessing that Maria Machado 295 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 2: is reading this right now. A post on Twitter on 296 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 2: X from Senator Rick Scott, of Course of Florida quote 297 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 2: del Rodriguez is not the president of Venezuela. She is 298 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 2: simply another corrupt leader of the Maduro regime. Would do 299 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 2: well to remember that any step she takes outside of 300 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:34,560 Speaker 2: the US wishes will result in the same fate as 301 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 2: her former partner in crime, Maduro. Is this a senator 302 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 2: speaking to his own constituents in Florida, We're representing a 303 00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 2: larger view in the Republican Party. 304 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 11: It clearly is a senator who has not checked his 305 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 11: statement with the White House or the President, because that 306 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 11: is almost precisely in opposition to what the President has said. 307 00:16:56,880 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 11: And you know, I think what John Bolton described was 308 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:05,439 Speaker 11: a lot of magical thinking, and Rick Scott's statement is 309 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 11: just in line with that. If you are going to 310 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:15,200 Speaker 11: seriously democratize a country, you can't leave in place Maduro's 311 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 11: right hand woman, her brother, and the rest of the 312 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 11: security apparatus. So that suggests this has nothing to do 313 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 11: with democratization. And Donald Trump, unlike his secretary of State, 314 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 11: isn't pretending it does. 315 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:29,720 Speaker 5: He's saying this is all about oil. 316 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 11: Well, there's the second part of the magical thinking, and 317 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 11: John Boltan mentioned this. The fact is is that it 318 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:41,840 Speaker 11: would take decades to do anything to convince oil companies 319 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:44,639 Speaker 11: to go into a country that is right now this 320 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 11: politically insecure, with a senator from the United States saying 321 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 11: we can't even agree on who's leading the country. 322 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:54,280 Speaker 5: To John Bolton's point. 323 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 11: What executive of a major oil company is going to say, Ah, 324 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 11: now's the time to go and invest in that. 325 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 5: Chevron's not investing. China is trying to pull out. 326 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:05,439 Speaker 11: Exon never wanted to go back in after nationalized it 327 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 11: just took over Mobile. So this thing would take decades, 328 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 11: if it's about oil, for the United States to reap 329 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:16,439 Speaker 11: those benefits. If the President is planning on doing what 330 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 11: he also said, which is to investing millions and billions 331 00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 11: of US taxpayer money into this project to pay oil 332 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:28,359 Speaker 11: companies and oil executives to do this, that's going to 333 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 11: create enormous pushback even amongst Republicans who may be fine 334 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 11: with going in against the law to this country, but 335 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,120 Speaker 11: not taking their hard earned tax dollars to pay off 336 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 11: oil executives to go in there and extract the oil 337 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 11: from another country. 338 00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 5: So this thing is full of magical thinking. It's brought. 339 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 11: The operation may have been a success, but the day 340 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:51,919 Speaker 11: two questions loom large, and it will disintegrate support in 341 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:53,240 Speaker 11: the long term. 342 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 3: Well, let's talk about the domestic political ramifications, Rick, because 343 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:00,960 Speaker 3: to Joe's point and the post from Rick Scott, it 344 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:04,119 Speaker 3: feels like Republicans are threading the needle here between being 345 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 3: in favor of Nicholas Maduro no longer being in power, 346 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,360 Speaker 3: but treading carefully when it comes to what they want 347 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 3: to see happen next with this transition to democracy. We 348 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,920 Speaker 3: heard House Speaker Mike Johnson saying yesterday that he hopes 349 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 3: that that happens quickly. If we look ahead, we're now 350 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:24,359 Speaker 3: in campaign season, President Trump rallying support among House Republicans 351 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 3: earlier today. Is foreign policy going to be a winning 352 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 3: issue as we go into the midterms. How should Republicans 353 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:31,640 Speaker 3: be thinking about this? 354 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 10: Well, first of all, I think it should be said 355 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:40,159 Speaker 10: that Republicans are favorable toward democracies in Venezuela, in the 356 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,159 Speaker 10: United States, and anywhere else. I don't think that's a 357 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:46,160 Speaker 10: big issue. I think what you see with Senator Scott 358 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 10: is a very determined senator from the state with a 359 00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:55,679 Speaker 10: lot of Venezuela expatriates living there, many of whom vote 360 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:57,879 Speaker 10: in the state, and he's doing the right thing for 361 00:19:57,960 --> 00:19:59,160 Speaker 10: his constituencies. 362 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:03,160 Speaker 4: And it doesn't matter what the White House does. 363 00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 10: Politics always starts at home for these guys. That being 364 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:11,120 Speaker 10: said to your second question, which is how does all 365 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 10: this play in the midterms, I don't think it really does. 366 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:18,720 Speaker 10: You'd have to dig pretty deep to find a winning 367 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,160 Speaker 10: foreign policy issue that helps the. 368 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 4: Party in power in an election. Voters tend to vote 369 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 4: their pocketbook. 370 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:28,840 Speaker 10: We spend a lot of time on this program talking 371 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:33,160 Speaker 10: about affordability and healthcare. It's much more likely that that 372 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:38,480 Speaker 10: drives people to the polls in November midterms than anything 373 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:42,960 Speaker 10: that happens momentarily in far away country like Venezuela, where 374 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:47,920 Speaker 10: most normal voters don't see a nexus between what's happening 375 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 10: there in their lives. 376 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:52,360 Speaker 4: And frankly, this administration really isn't making a nexus to that. 377 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:55,960 Speaker 10: They really aren't selling the idea that somehow, by being 378 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,159 Speaker 10: able to control the flow of oil out of Venezuela 379 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 10: that somehow gas prices are you're going to go down 380 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,960 Speaker 10: or somehow going to make your life better. So if 381 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 10: the administration doesn't invest in that, it's highly unlikely anybody 382 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 10: else will, and that means it probably won't have. 383 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:13,480 Speaker 4: Much of an impact in the midterm elections. 384 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:17,640 Speaker 2: Great conversation with our great panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano, 385 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,920 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributors. Stay with us on Balance of Power. 386 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 2: We'll have much more coming up after this. 387 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 388 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,679 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 389 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 1: Apple Coarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 390 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:40,080 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 391 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 392 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 2: So lawmakers are back in town. Everyone's getting back to 393 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,640 Speaker 2: reality this week, just like you are. And the President 394 00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 2: gathered House Republicans today over at the Kennedy Center. The 395 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 2: Kennedy Center still called that even though they change the 396 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:00,920 Speaker 2: letters on the side of the building. 397 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 4: I mentioned it. 398 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,160 Speaker 2: Because there is actually a piece of legislation that moved 399 00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 2: last evening. It's going to go before Rules today three 400 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:11,400 Speaker 2: appropriations bills, one of them for the interior. It does 401 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:15,719 Speaker 2: not include any change of the name for the Kennedy Center. 402 00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 2: As a matter of fact, there were a couple of 403 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:21,680 Speaker 2: efforts here to rename the Kennedy Center Trump Kennedy Center, 404 00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 2: and also to rename the Opera House after the first Lady, 405 00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:25,560 Speaker 2: Malania Trump. 406 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 4: Neither made it into the final bill. So who's in 407 00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,680 Speaker 4: charge around here? Anyway? 408 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 2: We turned to the shower in the Rules committee meeting 409 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 2: that will take place later on this evening. Have you 410 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:39,240 Speaker 2: heard about the Shower Act? You know how the President 411 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 2: talks about this a lot when he was on the stump. 412 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,720 Speaker 2: He talks about the washing machines, the water pressure, the toilet. 413 00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:48,119 Speaker 2: He says, you have to keep flushing, you keep pressing 414 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 2: the button on the I don't know how many appliances 415 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,240 Speaker 2: he's using on a regular basis, but he does shower 416 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:56,439 Speaker 2: and when it comes to water pressure, this is a 417 00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:58,720 Speaker 2: personal issue for the President, as he made clear back 418 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,959 Speaker 2: in April when he signed in executive order making it 419 00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:06,879 Speaker 2: possible for people to increase the water pressure in their bathroom, 420 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 2: removing efficiency standards to give us all beautiful hair. 421 00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:15,119 Speaker 12: Listen Hey, you take a shower, wash your hands, whatever 422 00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 12: you do, including dishwashes when no reporter comes out, but 423 00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:21,280 Speaker 12: you wash your hands. And in my case, I'd like 424 00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:24,640 Speaker 12: to take a nice shower, take care of my beautiful hair. 425 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,200 Speaker 5: I understand it as a shelf. 426 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:31,119 Speaker 12: I'm fifteen minutes so it gets wet because drift, grimp, drimm. 427 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:32,840 Speaker 4: It is ridiculous. 428 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 2: The drip, drip drip will go before the Rules Committee 429 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,119 Speaker 2: this evening, the Shower Act. 430 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:42,159 Speaker 4: See this is how it works. 431 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,680 Speaker 2: The President sets the agenda, the Republican Conference writes the bill, 432 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,360 Speaker 2: and it's going to move this evening through the Rules Committee. 433 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 4: The Shower Act. 434 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:56,360 Speaker 2: It stands for saving homeowners from overregulation with exceptional rinsing. 435 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 2: It will redefine a shower head to follow the residents 436 00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 2: e O. This is where we start our conversation with 437 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:08,719 Speaker 2: Nathan Dean, the senior US policy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, 438 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:10,479 Speaker 2: will humor me for at least a moment on this. 439 00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 4: Do you ever have a bad hair day all because 440 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:14,280 Speaker 4: of the water pressure. 441 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:17,640 Speaker 13: Yeah, you know, it's like, you know, well, look I'm 442 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 13: not exactly sure about the water pressure, but you know, 443 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 13: we saw this bill come out. Yeah, and The first 444 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:23,960 Speaker 13: thing I thought of is is there investing angle here, 445 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,040 Speaker 13: because we have to like see is there a stock. 446 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,000 Speaker 4: Like a new class of shower head that will all 447 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:28,359 Speaker 4: be buying. 448 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,520 Speaker 13: You know, I couldn't go there, but I would say, 449 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:32,679 Speaker 13: is that even if this bill doesn't pass, I have 450 00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,440 Speaker 13: to see this bill trying to get into a CR 451 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 13: or something like that, because there's some lobbyist around this 452 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:38,159 Speaker 13: town right now who's going. 453 00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:39,960 Speaker 9: Yes, I need this bill through. Yeah. 454 00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:41,520 Speaker 13: And you know so I mean if we get to 455 00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:43,480 Speaker 13: a CR with the government shutdown, then maybe this bill 456 00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:43,800 Speaker 13: goes through. 457 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,520 Speaker 4: It might be exceptional rinsing that keeps the government open. Yeah. 458 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,640 Speaker 2: You ever see the hair on producer James? This guy 459 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 2: needs some more water pressure. 460 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:50,120 Speaker 4: Hey. 461 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,480 Speaker 13: You know, it's a thing I think my son after 462 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:54,920 Speaker 13: football sometimes would prefer if he had a pressure washer. 463 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,400 Speaker 2: That's some much, That's right, I get it all right. 464 00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,199 Speaker 2: So America's dad is back with us. So we're going 465 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:03,880 Speaker 2: to talk about some important things here beyond the Shower Act. 466 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:05,959 Speaker 4: Yes, CC America's. 467 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:09,120 Speaker 2: Hair is what we're talking about today, and I think 468 00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 2: that's a breaking story at any time. I don't know 469 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,840 Speaker 2: that the President brought this up at the Kennedy Center 470 00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 2: earlier today, but he did talk about the agenda and 471 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,720 Speaker 2: he's trying to get some momentum here Nathan Dean for 472 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 2: the midterms and a period of time that's very delicate 473 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 2: for lawmakers because we've already gone over the so called cliff, 474 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,639 Speaker 2: the obamacarecliff. Premiums are rising, and we have a funding 475 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 2: deadline at the end of the month. At a couple 476 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:34,840 Speaker 2: strikes in Venezuela. Everybody's upset about war powers or they're 477 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:37,199 Speaker 2: defending the president on war powers, and there's a worry 478 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,680 Speaker 2: that we slide into a shutdown again because of arguments 479 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 2: over in this case, defense appropriations. 480 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 4: Where's your head on us? 481 00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 14: You know. 482 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,720 Speaker 13: So it's still a thirty percent of a shutdown chance 483 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,280 Speaker 13: at the end of this month. That's not batter And 484 00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:51,040 Speaker 13: you know, it's one of those things where if over 485 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:52,960 Speaker 13: the weekend, I think Senator Schumer was doing some of 486 00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:54,960 Speaker 13: the Sunday shows and he effectively. 487 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:55,320 Speaker 9: Ruled out a shutdown. 488 00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 13: From the Democratic perspective, look, the Democrats want to talk 489 00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:01,399 Speaker 13: about affordability and the American popular We've seen from polling 490 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,840 Speaker 13: about the response to Venezuela this past weekend. American populace 491 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,399 Speaker 13: is sort of still thinking about affordability as we go 492 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,160 Speaker 13: into the midterms. So, you know, from the Democratic perspective, 493 00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:11,720 Speaker 13: I really don't think you're going to see much in 494 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:15,520 Speaker 13: the ways of a shutdown. You know, from the Republican perspective, yes, 495 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:17,480 Speaker 13: you are going to see this push form potentially a 496 00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,080 Speaker 13: little bit additional funding in terms of defense. But we 497 00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,160 Speaker 13: had to call amongst our defense analysts and we said, 498 00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,600 Speaker 13: is this going to be additional funding where our stocks 499 00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 13: and the companies that we cover are going to get 500 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:31,200 Speaker 13: excited about? Are we talking about incremental? And the consensus 501 00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 13: from that call was this is incremental. So this is 502 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,119 Speaker 13: something where I don't think it's going to be very controversial. Yes, 503 00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:38,240 Speaker 13: you know, it could be some hiccups, but if you 504 00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:40,520 Speaker 13: have a hiccup, that means to get a continuing resolution, 505 00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,720 Speaker 13: and a continuing resolution that puts us to March probably 506 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:45,960 Speaker 13: gives Congress more time to actually get their ducks in 507 00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:48,080 Speaker 13: a row to figure out how they're going to get 508 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:49,520 Speaker 13: this fiscal spending over the line. 509 00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,119 Speaker 2: So that's your base case though, right we have a 510 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 2: short CR, not some sort of many months long CR, 511 00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:00,880 Speaker 2: and actual minibuses are past and sign into lag. 512 00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:02,600 Speaker 4: That's what this will look like. 513 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,080 Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean I think I don't think Congress can 514 00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:06,640 Speaker 13: get there by the end of this month. I mean, 515 00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,120 Speaker 13: look the fact that the language was not included about 516 00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:11,680 Speaker 13: the Kennedy Center and there. You know, you could take 517 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 13: it as saying, hey, let's get some of these poison 518 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:15,480 Speaker 13: pills out of here to try and get this thing 519 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,119 Speaker 13: moving forward. You know, I'm just speculating on that. But 520 00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,840 Speaker 13: you know, if Congress can't figure it out, they do 521 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:22,640 Speaker 13: what they do. Great, they kick the can. They could 522 00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:24,440 Speaker 13: it to February and March. They give them a little 523 00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 13: bit more time because we've talked about this as we 524 00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:30,199 Speaker 13: were talking about this in December, Congress doesn't actually have 525 00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,080 Speaker 13: that much of a to do list in twenty twenty six. Yes, 526 00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:35,360 Speaker 13: the Shower Act is important, thank you. We will talk 527 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,760 Speaker 13: about a crypto market structure bill that's probably in the 528 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 13: next few weeks about whether that can pass or not. 529 00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:42,400 Speaker 9: But Congress really doesn't have all that much to do. 530 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:44,879 Speaker 13: We have very low odds on a reconciliation bill passing 531 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 13: this year, and so it gives them time and there's 532 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:50,040 Speaker 13: a lot of focus is going to be on appropriations. 533 00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:52,720 Speaker 13: I don't think Congress really has you know, that much 534 00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:54,639 Speaker 13: else they really need to do at this point, So 535 00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,119 Speaker 13: kicking the Candon marches into worst case scenario for. 536 00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:00,240 Speaker 4: Them really interesting beyond and. 537 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,639 Speaker 2: The actual government funding that needs to be managed somehow. 538 00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:08,119 Speaker 2: This month, we've got an important vote. It looks like 539 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,280 Speaker 2: it's going to be Wednesday into Thursday this week on 540 00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 2: extending Obamacare subsidies. This is the discharge petition that we 541 00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:15,120 Speaker 2: talked a lot about before the new year. 542 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:16,920 Speaker 4: He had a couple of legislative days. 543 00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:20,119 Speaker 2: It's forced to the floor this week, but there's no 544 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:23,640 Speaker 2: discharge petition in the Senate. Nop And well, there's no 545 00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,720 Speaker 2: answer or echo for this bill in the upper chamber? 546 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,040 Speaker 2: Is there even if it passes overwhelmingly does John Thune 547 00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:29,879 Speaker 2: do anything about it? 548 00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:31,520 Speaker 13: So my colleague dwayn Wright has a note down on 549 00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:34,400 Speaker 13: the terminal and essentially says, look, you know, skeptical, long 550 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 13: odds that any solution is. 551 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,720 Speaker 9: Found, but there are two scenarios that could come out 552 00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:37,919 Speaker 9: of this. 553 00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,520 Speaker 13: When is this bill passes the House and then it 554 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:42,800 Speaker 13: goes to the Senate and it serves as a foundation 555 00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,960 Speaker 13: for additional debate. Senator Marina was even saying last night 556 00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,240 Speaker 13: that you know, there were talks I don't want to 557 00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:50,520 Speaker 13: say there were fruitful talks. Now there were still talks, 558 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 13: so maybe this continues those talks. But the more likely scenario, 559 00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,160 Speaker 13: according to Dwayne, is that the bill comes out of 560 00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:59,080 Speaker 13: the House, goes to the Senate, and the Senate just says. 561 00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:00,800 Speaker 9: Thanks, but no thanks. We're just going to let. 562 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,720 Speaker 13: The clock, right line run out on this because even 563 00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,280 Speaker 13: though there are some members of the Republican Party that 564 00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 13: want to see these extensions, you know, continue, the bulk 565 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 13: of the House Republican Party is against this. And I 566 00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:15,000 Speaker 13: think the you know, a lot of lallmakers around up 567 00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,080 Speaker 13: on Capitol Hill at the moment would just be comfortable 568 00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:19,880 Speaker 13: if these subsidies expire and we move on to other debates. 569 00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:23,200 Speaker 13: So again, Dwayne has pretty skeptical views towards this. 570 00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:24,840 Speaker 4: Well, I guess that hasn't changed a lot. 571 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,160 Speaker 2: Then I've got to let me ask you about the 572 00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:28,800 Speaker 2: latest on cannabis. 573 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:31,800 Speaker 4: Do you let your kids watch this? This has grown 574 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:32,440 Speaker 4: up talk, right. 575 00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:33,520 Speaker 9: They don't want to watch it. 576 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:35,200 Speaker 4: They wouldn't do this anyway, They wouldn't get this far 577 00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:35,840 Speaker 4: into the interview. 578 00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:37,640 Speaker 9: So on YouTube they want to watch other things. 579 00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:39,440 Speaker 4: Fine, that's it, We'll keep it that way. 580 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:45,960 Speaker 2: The DEA says rescheduling marijuana, the appeal process remains pending 581 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:50,080 Speaker 2: despite the President's EO that we've talked about a lot, 582 00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 2: And there's now this new Joint Status Report illuminating allegations 583 00:29:56,160 --> 00:30:00,200 Speaker 2: of agency bias and proper communications with anti rescheduling parties. 584 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,920 Speaker 4: Is this thing on ice for now? What's happening? 585 00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,800 Speaker 13: So I think there's a disconnect between the marijuana investors 586 00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:09,200 Speaker 13: who think that when President Trump signed that executive order, 587 00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:13,360 Speaker 13: rescheduling happened via magic wand and the Washington realities of that. 588 00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:15,320 Speaker 13: And there's a lot of folks out there because there's 589 00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:17,720 Speaker 13: a lot of retail sentiment in these hot sauce stocks 590 00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,680 Speaker 13: that we've talked about here. But the reality is is 591 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:22,560 Speaker 13: that when it comes to Washington, as you know all 592 00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:23,920 Speaker 13: too well, it doesn't move fast. 593 00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:25,920 Speaker 9: So even if an executive order comes out. 594 00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 13: Look, President Trump's Shower executive order came out months ago, 595 00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:31,320 Speaker 13: and it took it to this point to actually get 596 00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:32,040 Speaker 13: a House vote no. 597 00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:33,520 Speaker 9: When it comes to the DEA. 598 00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:37,240 Speaker 13: In particular, that I think here the terrence call the 599 00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:40,080 Speaker 13: administrator of the DEA, he gets to the executive order 600 00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:43,560 Speaker 13: and in this positive scenario, meaning that reschedulization happens quickly. 601 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:45,600 Speaker 4: He looks at it and says, look. 602 00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:47,640 Speaker 13: What is the bare minimum that we have to do 603 00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,000 Speaker 13: to get this to reschedulization without a way of having 604 00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:53,080 Speaker 13: any court come back and say you went too fast 605 00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 13: or anything like that. I think that ends with reschedulization 606 00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:57,120 Speaker 13: in the first half of this year. 607 00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,800 Speaker 4: So call it well maybe April twentieth, wells. 608 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,040 Speaker 13: But you know what I'll say is is that if 609 00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,880 Speaker 13: you're looking at this through the positive lens, it's happening. 610 00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,680 Speaker 13: Otherwise you're looking at this through the slower lens, and 611 00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:10,400 Speaker 13: you're going to have this stalled process at the end. 612 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:12,880 Speaker 13: But at the end of the day, presidents don't sign 613 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,240 Speaker 13: executive orders if they don't want them to have them done. 614 00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,200 Speaker 9: So I actually think President Trump is waiting. 615 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,120 Speaker 13: For that time where this is actually going to be 616 00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:23,240 Speaker 13: very beneficial attempts to their twenty twenty six midterms. 617 00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:25,560 Speaker 9: But I do think reschedulization is on the cards. 618 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,360 Speaker 2: Really interesting, are you still getting calls about this, like, 619 00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:31,239 Speaker 2: what's the mindset of the cannabis investor here? Is there 620 00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:35,000 Speaker 2: patients eat an edible check back in a couple months 621 00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:37,200 Speaker 2: or is there a paranoia that this is all about 622 00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 2: to fall apart. 623 00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:40,320 Speaker 13: The main question that we get is is this actually 624 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,200 Speaker 13: news or is this just fluff? And that is the 625 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,600 Speaker 13: number one question is every single time you see President 626 00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,080 Speaker 13: Trump go through one of these actions, they want to 627 00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:50,000 Speaker 13: know is it the playbook where President Trump makes a 628 00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,800 Speaker 13: positive statement? These hot sauce stocks go up fifteen to 629 00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:55,240 Speaker 13: twenty percent, then nothing gets done. Over the next couple 630 00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:58,000 Speaker 13: of weeks, MSS is back down, I know, off of 631 00:31:58,080 --> 00:31:58,680 Speaker 13: fur again. 632 00:31:58,880 --> 00:31:59,120 Speaker 12: You know. 633 00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:01,880 Speaker 13: So it's one of those things where is this actually new? 634 00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:03,920 Speaker 13: And what we go back to as we say, look, 635 00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:07,280 Speaker 13: reschedulization changes the tax code for a lot of these 636 00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,800 Speaker 13: mom and pop marijuana companies. The effective tax rate goes 637 00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,400 Speaker 13: from about forty percent to about ten percent. You know, 638 00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:16,320 Speaker 13: it doesn't do all that much for the industry. Legalization 639 00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:19,040 Speaker 13: is still not there and banking is still not there. 640 00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:21,560 Speaker 13: So that small tax relief is what you're going to get. 641 00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:22,640 Speaker 9: You're not getting anything. 642 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,160 Speaker 4: Else, got it? Amazing? What do you kids watch on YouTube? 643 00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:29,320 Speaker 13: The NFL stuff? Well, in sports and TikTok. 644 00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:32,000 Speaker 2: They watch other people play video games. I haven't figured 645 00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:35,680 Speaker 2: that out. They watch other people playing games roadblocks. Roadblocks 646 00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:38,800 Speaker 2: are supposed to playing the games yep, my best to 647 00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:41,880 Speaker 2: your family. That's Nathan Deep on Bloomberg. Stay with us 648 00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,160 Speaker 2: on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up 649 00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:44,640 Speaker 2: after this. 650 00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:52,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 651 00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 652 00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,920 Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 653 00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:02,000 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 654 00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:06,560 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 655 00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,080 Speaker 2: Thanks for being with us here on the Tuesday edition 656 00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 2: of Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio. Find us on YouTube, 657 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:15,320 Speaker 2: where we're always streaming live throughout the day all of 658 00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:18,840 Speaker 2: our programs from Washington to New York City. On what 659 00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:23,840 Speaker 2: is January sixth Yes, five years later? Isn't that something interesting? 660 00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:27,160 Speaker 2: Watching the way the different parties are handling like call 661 00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:31,480 Speaker 2: it an anniversary. This moment in time today started around 662 00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:36,560 Speaker 2: ten am. House Democrats were first. They held what they're 663 00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:40,520 Speaker 2: calling a presentation, a mock hearing essentially in the Visitors 664 00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:45,680 Speaker 2: Center with witnesses that they've called, including former Capital police officers, 665 00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:51,720 Speaker 2: former lawmakers, former DOJ prosecutors who worked January six cases. 666 00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:54,400 Speaker 2: A little bit after that, in fact, It was only 667 00:33:54,440 --> 00:34:00,120 Speaker 2: about an hour ago that the now pardoned J six protesters. 668 00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:03,360 Speaker 2: We're gathering as well, not at the Capitol, but at 669 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:07,240 Speaker 2: the Ellipse. Yeah, this is happening today in Washington. I 670 00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:08,560 Speaker 2: don't feel like it's getting a heck of a lot 671 00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:11,880 Speaker 2: of coverage. They're going to walk the old route up 672 00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:14,000 Speaker 2: to the Capitol after and what they are framing as 673 00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:18,760 Speaker 2: a memorial for Ashley Babbitt in that crowd. Enrique Tario, 674 00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:23,400 Speaker 2: the former chief of the Proud Boys, who writes on 675 00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:27,640 Speaker 2: X this will be a patriotic and peaceful march, see 676 00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:32,200 Speaker 2: you there, remembering he had been sentenced to prison until 677 00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:36,160 Speaker 2: twenty forty five before he was pardoned by the president. 678 00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,040 Speaker 2: A lot of Americans have moved on since January sixth. 679 00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:41,680 Speaker 2: We've talked about this with our panel, Rick and Jeanie, 680 00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:43,520 Speaker 2: who are going to be with us in just a moment. 681 00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:46,320 Speaker 2: Certainly a lot of politicians have. We don't hear a 682 00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:50,160 Speaker 2: lot of talk about it. We remember and on that 683 00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:53,959 Speaker 2: day a remarkable moment when we saw the then Vice 684 00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:57,040 Speaker 2: President Mike Pence, they were calling for his head outside 685 00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:00,840 Speaker 2: the Capitol. Actually get back inside the chamber and speak 686 00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:01,880 Speaker 2: from the rostrum. 687 00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,000 Speaker 14: Here he is on Jose suek t Havoc in our 688 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:14,600 Speaker 14: capital today. You did not win. Violence never wins. Freedom wins. 689 00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:17,640 Speaker 14: And this is still the People's House. 690 00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,280 Speaker 2: And you know what is left of his political career. 691 00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:28,240 Speaker 2: Fast forward five years and you remember how Donald Trump 692 00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:33,040 Speaker 2: was persona on grata. Then, of course the former Speaker 693 00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:35,640 Speaker 2: of the House, Kevin McCarthy, traveled tomor a Lago, did 694 00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:39,400 Speaker 2: the thumbs up photograph, and a four year rehabilitation cycle 695 00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:43,200 Speaker 2: began culminating with the election itself, but also in a 696 00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:47,360 Speaker 2: weird way this morning, on this anniversary, as the President 697 00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:51,680 Speaker 2: shared space with the entire House Republican conference, they got 698 00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:56,400 Speaker 2: together at the Kennedy Center some would say renamed, although 699 00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:58,600 Speaker 2: it hasn't been codified by the people in that room. 700 00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:02,759 Speaker 2: Congress and the President spoke to them earlier today. 701 00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:05,000 Speaker 4: Listen, well, you're all brilliant people. 702 00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:07,560 Speaker 12: Most of you are in this business wronger than me. 703 00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:11,239 Speaker 12: That makes me smarter than you, because look where I 704 00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,800 Speaker 12: am right, No it doesn't, But I wish you could 705 00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:18,279 Speaker 12: explain to me what the hell's going on with the 706 00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:19,400 Speaker 12: mind of the public. 707 00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:23,080 Speaker 4: Because we have the right policy. They don't. They have 708 00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:27,440 Speaker 4: horrible policy. They do stick together. They're violent, They're vicious. 709 00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:28,760 Speaker 4: You know, they're vicious. 710 00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:33,759 Speaker 2: People emerging to ask what the hell is going on 711 00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:37,640 Speaker 2: with the mind of the public. Short, we start with 712 00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:41,719 Speaker 2: our political panel, Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Shanzano and Rick 713 00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:44,560 Speaker 2: Davis are with US Genius Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard 714 00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:48,640 Speaker 2: Kennedy Schools ASH Center. Rick is Republican strategist and partner 715 00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:53,320 Speaker 2: at Stone Court Capital. Rick, you have to give Donald 716 00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:55,560 Speaker 2: Trump an enormous amount of credit for what's got to 717 00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:59,680 Speaker 2: be the most remarkable political rehabilitation. 718 00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:00,400 Speaker 4: In American history. 719 00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:03,120 Speaker 2: What went through your mind as you saw him ask 720 00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,680 Speaker 2: that question before Republican lawmakers this morning. 721 00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, it was kind of a flashback. As part of 722 00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:11,480 Speaker 4: the nineteen ninety six. 723 00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:15,320 Speaker 10: Bob Dole campaign for president, he gave him a speech 724 00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:19,560 Speaker 10: that after all this frustration with fighting against Bill Clinton, 725 00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:22,200 Speaker 10: who he saw as a flawed individual and a flawed president, 726 00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:28,200 Speaker 10: he would shout into the microphone, where's the outrage? And 727 00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:33,480 Speaker 10: that was pretty pretty humbling as an operative, what do 728 00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:36,080 Speaker 10: we do now? And I'd say the same thing for 729 00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:38,279 Speaker 10: the president. It's not exactly the message you want to give. 730 00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:41,319 Speaker 10: You know, Hey, American public, where's your outrage. I mean, 731 00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:43,000 Speaker 10: you're mad at me. What are you talking about? I'm 732 00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:45,960 Speaker 10: doing everything great. Not a good way to connect with 733 00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:50,319 Speaker 10: the electorate. And this is the difference between you know, 734 00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:52,920 Speaker 10: Donald Trump will never be on a ballot again, and 735 00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:55,520 Speaker 10: everybody in that room, almost all of them are on 736 00:37:55,600 --> 00:38:00,160 Speaker 10: a ballot next this year, and they have a different priority. 737 00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:02,440 Speaker 10: And he sounded like a guy who really doesn't care 738 00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:03,560 Speaker 10: about elections today. 739 00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:08,760 Speaker 2: Boy, that's a problem if you're running for election. GENI, 740 00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:11,759 Speaker 2: what went through your mind five years later, here as 741 00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:15,280 Speaker 2: the President gathered the rank and file out of all places, 742 00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:16,920 Speaker 2: the Kennedy Center. 743 00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:21,799 Speaker 11: Yeah, you know, I think so much of this has 744 00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:25,360 Speaker 11: to do with history. Donald Trump, as you pointed to, 745 00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:30,000 Speaker 11: has for the short term, successfully whitewashed the history of 746 00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:33,960 Speaker 11: what happened on that day. Unfortunately for Donald Trump, we 747 00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:37,359 Speaker 11: have videos and we have pictures, and as much as 748 00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:41,279 Speaker 11: the Republican Party can try to hide and obscure the 749 00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,760 Speaker 11: reality of what happened on that day, we have the videos, 750 00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:47,640 Speaker 11: we have the pictures, we have the testimony. I mean, 751 00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:51,040 Speaker 11: just a few days ago on New Year's Eve, Republicans, 752 00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:55,640 Speaker 11: while everybody else was celebrating, released testimony by Jack Smith 753 00:38:55,640 --> 00:39:00,000 Speaker 11: from December seventeenth, in which he said that January sixth 754 00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:04,319 Speaker 11: does not happen and unless Donald Trump ran it, that 755 00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:08,280 Speaker 11: he was the most culpable and responsible person for what happened. 756 00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:12,520 Speaker 11: When five people died, law officers were attacked and some 757 00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:16,239 Speaker 11: were killed, one hundred and forty people injured, the US 758 00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:20,640 Speaker 11: Capital stormed, reporters and members of Congress hovering in there, 759 00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:25,040 Speaker 11: some with gas masks on. Fifteen hundred people arrested. All 760 00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:27,719 Speaker 11: of that is a reality. So this is very much 761 00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:32,320 Speaker 11: about history, both his attempts to whitewash it and supported 762 00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:36,920 Speaker 11: as he has been by loyal supporters and Republicans, but 763 00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:41,000 Speaker 11: also long term in which people like Mike Pence will 764 00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:44,359 Speaker 11: be applauded in people like Lynn Cheney who stood their 765 00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:49,080 Speaker 11: ground and said against their own futures in politics, that 766 00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:52,520 Speaker 11: enough is enough. They know the truth and we can't 767 00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:55,799 Speaker 11: not continence what has happened here. So to me, it 768 00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,359 Speaker 11: says an awful lot about history, and it needs to 769 00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:01,520 Speaker 11: be remembered and it can be because we have the evidence. 770 00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:03,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, you're right. 771 00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,960 Speaker 2: It was the end of Liz Cheney's career in many 772 00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:08,759 Speaker 2: ways when she signed on to that January sixth committee, 773 00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:11,080 Speaker 2: but Look, we've got a room full of lawmakers who 774 00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:12,920 Speaker 2: are backing down to do some work here, Rick, and 775 00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:14,840 Speaker 2: I'm wondering what you think they can get done. The 776 00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:17,840 Speaker 2: President is talking about mid term strategy, is talking about 777 00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:21,120 Speaker 2: various healthcare plans. There's going to be a forced vote 778 00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:25,040 Speaker 2: by discharge petition on Obamacare subsidies this week. But in 779 00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:26,840 Speaker 2: the background, and this stuff doesn't get a lot of 780 00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:29,520 Speaker 2: talk because it's the sausage being made and it's not, 781 00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:34,000 Speaker 2: I guess in this place, in this case, terribly appealing. 782 00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:37,760 Speaker 2: But they're actually passing spending bills right now. We talked 783 00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:41,680 Speaker 2: about this with Nathan Dean a short time ago. Three 784 00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,879 Speaker 2: bill funding package on track for passage over the next 785 00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:47,200 Speaker 2: few weeks, and the Rules Committee is actually going to 786 00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:50,439 Speaker 2: be busy with some of this stuff later on, Rick, 787 00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,319 Speaker 2: Is this the story that we should be telling now? 788 00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:56,560 Speaker 2: Is something magical about to happen and that we pass 789 00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:57,080 Speaker 2: a budget? 790 00:40:58,440 --> 00:40:59,960 Speaker 4: Well, I wouldn't say it's magic. 791 00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:03,760 Speaker 10: It's only been delayed by you know, five months now, 792 00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:07,640 Speaker 10: so it's obviously taking a long time to get this far. 793 00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:11,719 Speaker 10: And as Tom Cole, the chairman of the Appropriations Committee, 794 00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:15,279 Speaker 10: has said that, you know, he's looking at these nine 795 00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:20,480 Speaker 10: appropriations bills being done in three packages of three departments, 796 00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:23,440 Speaker 10: and we'll see the first one with action this week. 797 00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:26,279 Speaker 10: And this is what they're supposed to be doing. There's 798 00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:29,480 Speaker 10: agreement on top line numbers with the Senate and House, 799 00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:32,239 Speaker 10: but not what's inside of each of these packages, and 800 00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:35,160 Speaker 10: even the way that they're structured is going to need 801 00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:39,759 Speaker 10: some massaging. But we should hope that Congress will do 802 00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:43,279 Speaker 10: their job and pass these appropriations bills. 803 00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:44,320 Speaker 4: And get on with funding the government. 804 00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:49,000 Speaker 10: As Nathan indicated, unlikely that that's going to happen by 805 00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:51,239 Speaker 10: the end of this month. I think, what is it, 806 00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:54,399 Speaker 10: just fifteen legislative days left to go to do this, 807 00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:59,200 Speaker 10: and so they may need more time, but I don't 808 00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:01,480 Speaker 10: think there's going to be any heartburn about a short 809 00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:05,920 Speaker 10: CR in order to get these appropriations packages through. Finally, 810 00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:08,400 Speaker 10: after that, I think you're going to find there's not 811 00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:11,880 Speaker 10: a lot of appetite. An election year never is for 812 00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:14,960 Speaker 10: legislative action, so not much is going to happen for 813 00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:15,799 Speaker 10: the balance of the year. 814 00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:18,320 Speaker 4: Really interesting, Genie, Let's. 815 00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:20,880 Speaker 2: Say they figure this out, and whether it involves a 816 00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:23,400 Speaker 2: short term CR or not, we avoid a shutdown. 817 00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:25,399 Speaker 4: There's going to be a vote in a couple of days. 818 00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:27,320 Speaker 2: Here, it looks like Thursday will be the final floor 819 00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:30,360 Speaker 2: action on the discharge petition to extend Obamacare subsidies. We 820 00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:34,439 Speaker 2: talked about this a lot going into the holidays, tick 821 00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:37,080 Speaker 2: down the legislative days, and so here we are it's 822 00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:39,319 Speaker 2: going to be forced to the floor, but there's no 823 00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:42,879 Speaker 2: such bill in the Senate. If this passes convincingly, can 824 00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:45,880 Speaker 2: it create some new momentum or if you've already written 825 00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:47,120 Speaker 2: this off as a failure. 826 00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:50,759 Speaker 5: Yeah, I agree with Rick on this. 827 00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:54,920 Speaker 11: I don't think we see much beyond a government funding bill, 828 00:42:55,920 --> 00:43:00,680 Speaker 11: you know, that kind of operation that you would address 829 00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:04,399 Speaker 11: what has been this subsidy issue that's been looming over 830 00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:05,800 Speaker 11: Congress for so long. 831 00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:08,120 Speaker 5: It's going to take by partisan action. 832 00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:10,960 Speaker 11: Heck, that's why they're doing it via a discharge petition 833 00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:14,560 Speaker 11: in the House. And yet most of Congress has shown 834 00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:19,160 Speaker 11: no will and no interest in bipartisan action, and certainly 835 00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:23,200 Speaker 11: the person leading Congress, Donald Trump, has shown little interest 836 00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:26,360 Speaker 11: in that. So I don't see this going anywhere in 837 00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:29,680 Speaker 11: the House or in the Senate. I think that it's, 838 00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:31,799 Speaker 11: like so much else, it's going to grind to a 839 00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:34,760 Speaker 11: halt because of the election year. It's going to grind 840 00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:39,480 Speaker 11: to a halt because unless Donald Trump commands the Republican 841 00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:41,960 Speaker 11: leaders in Congress to act, they're. 842 00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:43,000 Speaker 5: Not going to act. 843 00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:48,120 Speaker 11: They see their futures tied up not to what's happening 844 00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:51,760 Speaker 11: in November. Interestingly enough, as much as to what Donald 845 00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:55,880 Speaker 11: Trump tweets and truths. You would think that looking at 846 00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:59,400 Speaker 11: poles on affordability in the economy, they would be trying 847 00:43:59,440 --> 00:43:59,920 Speaker 11: to address. 848 00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:01,640 Speaker 5: She was like the cost of health care. 849 00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,680 Speaker 11: But that's not what we're seeing, at least not yet, 850 00:44:04,719 --> 00:44:08,000 Speaker 11: when they are more worried about Donald Trump and Elon 851 00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:12,160 Speaker 11: Musk primarying them than they are in what voters may 852 00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:15,640 Speaker 11: say in these very gerrymander districts where they have some 853 00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:19,080 Speaker 11: safety and so I think we're going to see everything 854 00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:22,880 Speaker 11: in Congress grind to a halt until after the election. 855 00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:27,600 Speaker 2: Interesting I think the Shower Act might pass, though, Guys, 856 00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:30,280 Speaker 2: you saw they're marking that up in rules this evening. 857 00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:32,720 Speaker 2: This is another one we talked about with Nathan, saving 858 00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:37,359 Speaker 2: homeowners from overregulation with exceptional rinsing. This is the one 859 00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:39,839 Speaker 2: that redefines the showerhead so you can finally get your 860 00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:43,600 Speaker 2: water pressure back. I don't know what everyone's complaining about 861 00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:47,680 Speaker 2: here the House gets stuff done. Rick, does this all 862 00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:51,280 Speaker 2: reinforce the idea of Donald Trump as the real speaker? 863 00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:54,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, to some degree. 864 00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:57,200 Speaker 10: I don't think there's been a whole lot of mystery 865 00:44:57,320 --> 00:45:00,840 Speaker 10: to the fact that Spigger Johnson doesn't a move without 866 00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:04,600 Speaker 10: Donald Trump approving it. And I think, as Genie mentioned, 867 00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:07,880 Speaker 10: Trump doesn't really engaged on this healthcare issue, and so 868 00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:12,200 Speaker 10: why should Speaker Johnson break a sweat doing anything for it. 869 00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:13,080 Speaker 4: He's not going to get. 870 00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:15,040 Speaker 10: Credit for it and probably just get thrown under the bus, 871 00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:20,319 Speaker 10: you know, as would be expected from Trump. So yeah, 872 00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:23,440 Speaker 10: I mean Trump controls the legislative agenda. He controls it 873 00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:25,520 Speaker 10: in the Senate too. I don't think it we get 874 00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:29,200 Speaker 10: enough attention to the fact that Dune will not oppose 875 00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:32,600 Speaker 10: anything Donald Trump wants to be done. It's been a 876 00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:36,680 Speaker 10: rare moment of political courage for any member with a 877 00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:40,359 Speaker 10: GOP stamp on them to speak out against the Donald 878 00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:41,120 Speaker 10: Trump agenda. 879 00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:44,560 Speaker 4: So it's a it's a compliant Congress. 880 00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:49,600 Speaker 10: And in that regard, with the passing of a member 881 00:45:49,719 --> 00:45:53,440 Speaker 10: today and Marjorie Taylor Green's exit, the fact that you 882 00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:56,080 Speaker 10: know Johnson has a slim margin of basically one now 883 00:45:56,880 --> 00:46:00,919 Speaker 10: to enact legislation reinforces the point of man earlier, which 884 00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:02,919 Speaker 10: is very little is actually going to get done along 885 00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:05,239 Speaker 10: party lines, even I. 886 00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:09,040 Speaker 2: Hear you Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzo, Bloomberg Politics contributors. 887 00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:13,799 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 888 00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:17,560 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 889 00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:20,239 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 890 00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:24,000 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at 891 00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:25,360 Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com.