Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg sound On.
Speaker 1: Seven million people have already cast from ballot in the
Speaker 1: mid term elections. If we want to ensure the survival
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Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio five days to the elections.
Speaker 1: Welcome to the fastest hour in politics, says We zero
Speaker 1: in on a Bell Weather in the Hudson Valley, New
Speaker 1: York that we'll all be watching next Tuesday night. With
Speaker 1: both candidates on board. Congressman Pat Ryan, who won a
Speaker 1: special election after the Supreme Court ruled on Roe v. Wade.
Speaker 1: Now in a re drawn district, facing Republican Colin Schmidt,
Speaker 1: we talk issues with both the D and the R.
Speaker 1: Back to back interviews. New polling chose Republicans could flip
Speaker 1: the Senate seat of New Hampshire, Don Baldock debated Senator
Speaker 1: Maggie Hassan last night. We're gonna talk about it with
Speaker 1: Chris Galdery, professor of politics at St Anselm College in
Speaker 1: New Hampshire. They ran the numbers and hosted the debate.
Speaker 1: And as Barack Obama makes his way to Arizona, now
Speaker 1: on behalf of Democrats will have analysis from our signature
Speaker 1: paneled Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Genie Chanzano are
Speaker 1: with us for the hour. Pat Ryan made a big
Speaker 1: splash when he won a special election in New York
Speaker 1: Hudson Valley because it was right after the Supreme Court
Speaker 1: ruling on row. This is back in August. He's now
Speaker 1: in a redrawn eighteenth district where he's facing Republican Colin Schmidt,
Speaker 1: and he joins us now on Bloomberg as we welcome
Speaker 1: both candidates back to back on the program, starting with
Speaker 1: Congressman Ryan, thanks for joining us, Well, thank you for
Speaker 1: having me. Well, they're calling your race a bell weather
Speaker 1: for the nation, that that you're the canary in the
Speaker 1: political coal mine? Is that how you see it? Uh?
Speaker 1: You know, I am extremely focused here on the ground
Speaker 1: across the three counties I'm hoping to continue to represent.
Speaker 1: So I haven't really been following some of the national stuff,
Speaker 1: but certainly our race in in August, our special election
Speaker 1: was a national referendum on standing up for democracy, reproductive rights,
Speaker 1: fighting for economic relief. And we surprised a lot of uh,
Speaker 1: you know, the experts and pundits in winning that race,
Speaker 1: and I feel good that that momentum is certainly building
Speaker 1: for us. Even more closely watched, of course, because you know,
Speaker 1: this was right after the Scotus ruling. Your primary win
Speaker 1: was given a big boost by the fallout of of
Speaker 1: Roe v. Wade. That special happened in August. Congressman posters
Speaker 1: say the issue was running now far behind things like
Speaker 1: the economy and crime. Will it help decide this race again?
Speaker 1: For you? Unequivocally, it is one of the It's not
Speaker 1: the only issue, of course, but it is one of
Speaker 1: the most salient issues. People are rightly outraged that fellow
Speaker 1: Americans fundamental rights and freedoms were ripped away, and we've
Speaker 1: seen the far right double down and actually call for
Speaker 1: a nationwide abortion ban, uh, even in the case of
Speaker 1: rape and incests and threats to the life of a mother.
Speaker 1: My opponent is one of those extreme folks. So standing
Speaker 1: up for that right and other rights and delivering economic relief,
Speaker 1: those are the two main thrust of our campaign. Uh
Speaker 1: and and I think that really meets the moment of
Speaker 1: where people's concerns are. Well, you probably saw this new
Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal poll out today getting a lot of
Speaker 1: talk because it shows a big swing and sentiment among
Speaker 1: so called suburban white women, half of whom now think
Speaker 1: the Republican Party, as I read, has a better economic
Speaker 1: plan to make life easier for people like them. And
Speaker 1: that's up from the same poll in August. Not only
Speaker 1: at that point favored Republicans approach with everything you just said,
Speaker 1: can you win without suburban women? Well, I think the
Speaker 1: important caveat here is no offense to posters. But they
Speaker 1: just always wrong. I mean, I mean, it certainly is.
Speaker 1: In my case. No poll before our special election in
Speaker 1: August had me winning that race. There were dozens of them.
Speaker 1: They all said we're gonna lose. Every single one of
Speaker 1: them was wrong. And I just think that we can't
Speaker 1: over read the polls. Of course, folks are focused on
Speaker 1: the economy. They were focused on it in our August
Speaker 1: special election. They're continuing to focus on it. We saw
Speaker 1: overwhelming support across all political parties, women and men on
Speaker 1: in all generations, because we stood up in a positive,
Speaker 1: constructive way and said we're going to deliver relief. You know,
Speaker 1: for example, I cut our county gas tax and half
Speaker 1: I cut our property tax as the lowest level in
Speaker 1: forty years. We provided millions in small business relief that matters,
Speaker 1: that connects, that actually helps people. Republicans right now, certainly
Speaker 1: at the national level especially, asked them what their actual
Speaker 1: plan is to address rising costs, and all the best
Speaker 1: you're gonna hear is a tax for the ultra wealthy,
Speaker 1: which is not what the country needs right now. President
Speaker 1: Biden would have won this new district by nine points
Speaker 1: in which is even more favorable for you than the
Speaker 1: nine district that you won in the special. We saw
Speaker 1: the President make a visit to Poughkeepsie this month. You
Speaker 1: were at his side. A lot has happened, though since
Speaker 1: have the politics of the last two years changed the
Speaker 1: views of people in places like Orange or Duchess County.
Speaker 1: What do they tell you, Yeah, an awful lot has happened.
Speaker 1: That's for sure, and I think everybody feels that we
Speaker 1: we are more politically divided, uh, and that there's less
Speaker 1: and less trust in government to actually deliver. I was
Speaker 1: a local elected official before serving in Congress now, and
Speaker 1: my main focus was how do we deliver tangible helps
Speaker 1: to people in mental health and infrastructure, in environmental protection
Speaker 1: in order to rebuild trust. And so when you have
Speaker 1: the President United States show up to the Huston Valley
Speaker 1: the first time a president's been here in decades and
Speaker 1: and announced a twenty billion dollar commitment to bring back
Speaker 1: quantum computing and semi computing jobs back to where IBM
Speaker 1: was the thriving heart of our economy. That is a
Speaker 1: huge deal to tangibly deliver and help both immediately and
Speaker 1: over the next ten to twenty years. That's what we've
Speaker 1: been been doing across the board, in addition to lowering costs,
Speaker 1: lowing prescription drug costs, capping insulin costs. I mean again,
Speaker 1: I think actions speak louder than words in terms of
Speaker 1: how hard Democrats have been fighting to deliver that. In
Speaker 1: actions include showing up in person. You know that you
Speaker 1: hear this this narrative around the country that a lot
Speaker 1: of democratic candidates don't want to appear with President Biden
Speaker 1: that he hasn't been at a lot of uh, you know,
Speaker 1: in a lot of bell Weather states where we have
Speaker 1: closely contested races. But you stood with him in pick Keepsie.
Speaker 1: Does that help your campaign? I was proud to welcome
Speaker 1: the President. One. I respect him personally, and I also
Speaker 1: respect the office of the presidency regardless of who's in it.
Speaker 1: And too, he was here to deliver for the community,
Speaker 1: which is our job. So when anybody comes and wants
Speaker 1: to deliver and help the community that I represent, I'm
Speaker 1: going to proudly stand with them, uh and do everything
Speaker 1: I can to to build on that. And Yeah, I
Speaker 1: don't know why others sort of shy away. I think
Speaker 1: that sometimes we get lost in the punditry and the politics.
Speaker 1: At the end of the day, if you're going to
Speaker 1: deliver help, um you are. You are welcome with open
Speaker 1: arms here in our community because we need help. President
Speaker 1: issued a pretty stark morning last night to voters. Uh.
Speaker 1: And it's not the first time he says democracy is
Speaker 1: on the ballot? Is that which you're actually hearing congressmen
Speaker 1: from voters in the midst of this time of inflation
Speaker 1: this time of war. And I ask you that because
Speaker 1: you seem to sort of veer away from the national
Speaker 1: narratives and speak about local issues in our conversation so far, Well,
Speaker 1: we have to do both. I mean, I graduated from
Speaker 1: West Point, I served twenty seven months in combat. I
Speaker 1: took an oath to support and defend our constitution from
Speaker 1: enemies foreign and domestic, and to grapple personally with the
Speaker 1: fact that some of the great the threats to our
Speaker 1: constitution are right here in America, from election deniers, from
Speaker 1: people who stormed our capital. That has to be a
Speaker 1: bright red line. And I don't care who you are,
Speaker 1: what party you're from, what state you're from, if you
Speaker 1: won't uphold that core tenant of our democracy of free
Speaker 1: and fair elections, you need to be held accountable to
Speaker 1: the fullest extent. And um, I'm proud that the President
Speaker 1: is calling that out. And I do hear to your question.
Speaker 1: I hear from a lot of people, and UH poles
Speaker 1: nationally have shown threats to democracy are now at or
Speaker 1: near the top of people's concerns consistently for for weeks
Speaker 1: and months. And I'm you know, I'm I'm running in
Speaker 1: great part because I'm worried and we have to have
Speaker 1: people who believe in it and want to fight to
Speaker 1: make it better. But a lot of talk about political violence,
Speaker 1: certainly since the attack on Paul Pelosi, But as you know,
Speaker 1: it goes back much further than that, as we consider
Speaker 1: the attack on Steve Scalise, Uh in many others over
Speaker 1: the past couple of years. Gabby Giffords, this goes back
Speaker 1: years in years, Congressman, I wonder, how do you consider
Speaker 1: your own safety right now if you've been enduring threats
Speaker 1: on the campaign trail, and and do you think lawmakers
Speaker 1: should have their own security details? I mean, number one,
Speaker 1: it's just sad that we have to even have these conversations,
Speaker 1: and it reflects the increasingly divisive rhetoric which is all
Speaker 1: for personal political gains by selfish people, and that that
Speaker 1: outrages me. Uh And I had to have a conversation
Speaker 1: with my wife about we have two young kids. For
Speaker 1: the first time I have a conversation about securing our home.
Speaker 1: Going back to what I learned as an army officer
Speaker 1: of you know, a safety a security plan to to
Speaker 1: defend a position, which is my own home in my
Speaker 1: own community where I grew up. So we've got to
Speaker 1: we've got to do better than this um and and
Speaker 1: certainly upping security is is a small part of it,
Speaker 1: but it's so much deeper than that. And uh, I
Speaker 1: just think we have to remind people that we've got
Speaker 1: to remind people of our better angels. As President Lincoln
Speaker 1: so famously said Thomas from pat Ryan, I appreciate your
Speaker 1: spending some time with us on a busy day on
Speaker 1: the trail, and thank you for your service. Oh, thank
Speaker 1: you for having me and I really enjoyed the time. Thanks.
Speaker 1: We turned out of Congressman Ryan's opponent, Colin Schmidt, is
Speaker 1: a Republican member of the New York Assembly, serves in
Speaker 1: the Army National Guard, and he joins our conversation now.
Speaker 1: Mr Schmidt, welcome to Bloomberg. Thanks for having me on.
Speaker 1: I really appreciate it. Well. As I discussed with Congressman
Speaker 1: Pat Ryan, the nation is watching your race as a
Speaker 1: bit of a microcosm here, especially after the special that
Speaker 1: that he won in the district next door in August
Speaker 1: that that was framed as a classic battle of issues
Speaker 1: as opposed to a lot of the cultural stuff that's
Speaker 1: been going on in this country in this case inflation
Speaker 1: versus abortion. Is this race you're in now any different this? Uh,
Speaker 1: this race in November is going to be starkly different
Speaker 1: than that special election, a different time period or its occurring,
Speaker 1: but nearly a completely different district. And the issues that
Speaker 1: are playing out here are the economy and crime. That
Speaker 1: is the main two issues. They're they're almost tied in
Speaker 1: importance to the voters when we hear about it crime, economy, economy, crime,
Speaker 1: over and over and over again. Uh. Those are the
Speaker 1: issues that are impacting people on their day to day lives.
Speaker 1: And it's nearly the unanimous level that we hear of
Speaker 1: concern are on those two issues at doors and phone
Speaker 1: calls at events. Have done over two fifty something thousand
Speaker 1: voter compacts now since June, and the overwhelming responses continue
Speaker 1: to be on those issues. So let's ask you about inflation,
Speaker 1: which is important to us and something we talked about
Speaker 1: a lot here. Your opponents stood with President Biden and
Speaker 1: keeps you this month that's out this new IBM investment
Speaker 1: to talk about the inflation Reduction Acts lowering drug prices.
Speaker 1: The President says that that if Republicans take the House,
Speaker 1: they'll repeal that law. Is he right? The President's decided
Speaker 1: to come here to tout the Inflation Act that they
Speaker 1: passed after inflation hit another record high. And you know,
Speaker 1: my opponent is not offered a solution other than to
Speaker 1: keep spending money, keep spending federal money, which has gotten
Speaker 1: us here in the first place. So the biggest issue
Speaker 1: when it comes to this inflation crisis, which we have
Speaker 1: signed on at the Commitment to America with the new
Speaker 1: House Republican majority, is to get the out of control spending.
Speaker 1: We gotta we gotta get that in control. Over almost
Speaker 1: ten sillion dollars in the last two years under the
Speaker 1: Biden administration. House Democrats the main cooler of this inflationary crisis.
Speaker 1: We now see it rippling, with the interest rates continuing
Speaker 1: to increase. Just this week. It's pricing people out of homes,
Speaker 1: it's driving rents through the roof. The ripple effects of
Speaker 1: this continued to be substantial, continued to touch every resident
Speaker 1: of this district. And the President everything he's done has exasperated.
Speaker 1: Everything Pat Ryan has done is exasperated, and we want
Speaker 1: to get it under control when we take over the
Speaker 1: probably saw this New Wall Street Journal poll out today,
Speaker 1: it's not on your race. It's a national poll showing sentiment,
Speaker 1: a young sentiment among suburban white women turning more Republican.
Speaker 1: Half of suburban white women now tell this poll that
Speaker 1: the Republican Party has a better economic plan to make
Speaker 1: life easier for them. And if that's up from thirty
Speaker 1: five just in August, you're the one talking with voters
Speaker 1: out on the trail here is inflation more important to
Speaker 1: to suburban white women than the right of choice. I'd
Speaker 1: say the biggest issue that we hear, particularly from from
Speaker 1: families and from moms, is the economic impact that they
Speaker 1: are facing. We have the cost of gas, the cost
Speaker 1: of food in particular, is is really unsustainable for many
Speaker 1: many families. We we have had reached out to my
Speaker 1: office numerous people already going back to the fuel cost,
Speaker 1: energy costs of home heatings that they're not even able
Speaker 1: to fully build their tank um or that they do there,
Speaker 1: they can't afford to food, and now they're making a
Speaker 1: choice do we eat or do we keep ourselves warm
Speaker 1: and our family is warm. That's not a Republican or
Speaker 1: Democrat issue. If you're a mother, if if you're a father,
Speaker 1: and you're being faced with are we gonna be warmer
Speaker 1: or or a cold, or hungry or full? Is that
Speaker 1: that transcends I think yeah, any kind of general political leaning.
Speaker 1: Just that's a basic instinct to provide for your family
Speaker 1: and for yourself. So so you don't see abortion as
Speaker 1: a as a viable issue in this campaign. This issue
Speaker 1: is about the economy and then the safety issues of
Speaker 1: crime and supportful l I want to ask you speaking
Speaker 1: of safety, and I asked Congressman Ryan about this. The
Speaker 1: President issued a stark warning to voters last night. He
Speaker 1: says democracy is on the ballot. He pointed to political violence,
Speaker 1: the attack against Paul Pelosi. Of course, we've talked about
Speaker 1: the attack against Steve Skalie and what happened on January six.
Speaker 1: The nation's head is spinning when it comes to this stuff.
Speaker 1: Do you believe that lawmakers should have more security? Do
Speaker 1: you find yourself or your family under threat as someone
Speaker 1: who's running for public office. I think that obviously, political
Speaker 1: violence of any type against anyone is completely unacceptable. It
Speaker 1: must be condemned in the strongest terms. And we need
Speaker 1: to ensure that the right uh measures of security are
Speaker 1: available for for anyone. Um you know who's serving the public.
Speaker 1: Particularly what we see here in the Hudson Valley is
Speaker 1: a true public safety concerned UH globally where just a
Speaker 1: few weeks ago in this congressional district, we had five
Speaker 1: shootings in a single weekend, including a college father who
Speaker 1: is visiting for a family weekend at a college shot
Speaker 1: getting coffee in his hotel and killed. We have so
Speaker 1: many commuters in this district, particularly going to New York City,
Speaker 1: men and women who reached out to me that they're
Speaker 1: scared to go to work. We had not heard, and
Speaker 1: I think this is the voters have not heard. The
Speaker 1: public has not heard from our governor, from the president,
Speaker 1: from officials saying we want to make things safer for you.
Speaker 1: We want to hire more police, we want to make
Speaker 1: sure you haven't The president he says to fund the police.
Speaker 1: He said that in his State of the Union address. UM,
Speaker 1: but it's also been reported, and I'd love for you
Speaker 1: to have an opportunity to tell our listeners. It's it's
Speaker 1: been reported that you rallied with folks who went to
Speaker 1: the capital on January six, the head of their trip
Speaker 1: to d c UH. Did you have any sense of
Speaker 1: what was going to happen? That data. You will regret
Speaker 1: your association with them. This is a debunk lie that's
Speaker 1: continued to be sued by the Democrat National Committee and
Speaker 1: my opponent Pat Ryan. January six, I was invited, as
Speaker 1: I've been many times, to address Orange County Rights to Life,
Speaker 1: a faith based organization. It's all volunteers, senior citizens, local family.
Speaker 1: You addressed them fairly frequently. They asked me on my
Speaker 1: inauguration day, the day that I was being sworn in,
Speaker 1: to address issues that were coming up on the first
Speaker 1: day of legislative session. In all but nobody in that
Speaker 1: group had anything to do with any violence or anything
Speaker 1: that happened that day at all, and theyre continued to
Speaker 1: be smeared. They were not at the capitol and nothing
Speaker 1: to do with anything like that. This is why we're
Speaker 1: smeared and our opponent deserve These people deserve an apology
Speaker 1: from my opponent, and anyone who did do anything wrong,
Speaker 1: which is no affiliation with these individuals, must be prosecuted
Speaker 1: to the full extent of the law. Assemblymen, Colin Schmidt,
Speaker 1: he's the Republican candidate in New York's eighteenth district. Thank
Speaker 1: you for being with us on Bloomberg. Thank you for
Speaker 1: having me. I appreciate and we assemble our panel now
Speaker 1: as always, Rick Davis and Jeannie Chanzano make our signature
Speaker 1: panel Bloomberg Politics contributors who somehow brings sense to all
Speaker 1: of this every day. It's great to have you both here.
Speaker 1: I thought it was important to have both candidates, you know,
Speaker 1: not trying to gin up a debate here, but have
Speaker 1: two adjacent interviews talking essentially along the same lines. They
Speaker 1: really tried to sort of frame the questioning of for
Speaker 1: for one interview the same as the next here and
Speaker 1: talk about issues because Genie in New York and you
Speaker 1: live in New York. That's what that special election was
Speaker 1: was kind of heralded for the fact that it was
Speaker 1: about policy, that it was about issues more than cultural differences.
Speaker 1: Do you feel like that's the same this time around. Well,
Speaker 1: you're so right there. Everybody is watching this race to
Speaker 1: see if it is, as you mentioned, a microcosm or
Speaker 1: rebell weather as to what's to come across the rest
Speaker 1: of the nation, and you know, it's it's very close
Speaker 1: to where I live and work, and it is one
Speaker 1: that you know, we really don't have a very good
Speaker 1: sense where to go where it's going to go. We
Speaker 1: don't have enough polling directly of the district, and so
Speaker 1: we rely on these national polls. But of course these
Speaker 1: races are choices between two candidates, and that's why it's
Speaker 1: so great to hear from both of them. You know,
Speaker 1: pat Ryan is a very very um charismatic and successful
Speaker 1: and you know, he really shocked the nation with his
Speaker 1: race or the nineteenth and then to have to turn
Speaker 1: around a few a few months later and run again
Speaker 1: against a formidable component in Colin Schmidt, who's known in
Speaker 1: the district. So it's gonna be a close race. And
Speaker 1: I think the real question is what issues win the
Speaker 1: day here. But you know they are both talking about
Speaker 1: well Ryan's talking more about abortion than Schmidt, but they're
Speaker 1: both focused on the economy. I hear it. And of
Speaker 1: course Ryan is out rayed Schmidt three point for a
Speaker 1: million about to one point eight million, So he's got
Speaker 1: a cash advantage for sure. Rick. You look at this district,
Speaker 1: this eighteenth districts, and the five thirty eight average of
Speaker 1: poles has pat Ryan winning uh slightly favored sixty nine
Speaker 1: out of a hundred. Of the odds they paid thirty
Speaker 1: two out of a hundred for Schmidt. Did the issues
Speaker 1: that will drive the decisions bubble up there? I mean,
Speaker 1: is this really you don't want to oversimplify this too much?
Speaker 1: Like Pat Ryan said, there's room for more than one
Speaker 1: issue in a campaign, but a lot of folks have
Speaker 1: framed this as inflation for his abortion. Yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: I think what you're talking about where the drivers in
Speaker 1: the issue? Right? There are a lot of issues that
Speaker 1: are going to cut in these campaigns. What's driving to vote?
Speaker 1: And I thought the point you made about suburban white women, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, flipping from August, you know, around the time
Speaker 1: Pat Ryan was elected or plus plus twelve for Democrats
Speaker 1: to being now plus fifteen for GOP. That is a
Speaker 1: really big move and that's all about the economy and inflation. Well, Jennie,
Speaker 1: you'd start talking about I mean, you've made the point.
Speaker 1: You live there. Do you buy those numbers? That was
Speaker 1: a little bit of a weird sample, I want to
Speaker 1: be clear, in that Wall Street Journal polls, a small
Speaker 1: sample had a big margin of error to see a
Speaker 1: move that big among a group that may well decide
Speaker 1: the balance of power here in Washington. Never mind the
Speaker 1: winner of this particular race is significant. It's significant, but
Speaker 1: I was going to go right there. We're talking about
Speaker 1: a very small subsample at you know, a hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty voters with a margin of ERA plus or minus
Speaker 1: eight percent. That's enormous. When you're talking these poles and
Speaker 1: time they try to dig down like this, it's very
Speaker 1: tough to get a good read. I think the most
Speaker 1: we could say is there has been movement amongst this group,
Speaker 1: just like the rest of the country, increasing focus on
Speaker 1: cost of living inflation as the numbers get worse, quite frankly,
Speaker 1: so that's real. The sleeper issue here is the one
Speaker 1: that Schmidt mentioned. It is crime. I'm telling you, living
Speaker 1: in New York, that is what you hear about more
Speaker 1: often than not. Democrats winning on abortion, it's about Republicans
Speaker 1: winning on the economy. But it's the crime and Democrats
Speaker 1: are trying to make a move on that. And the
Speaker 1: question is too little, too late, It's unclear, but New
Speaker 1: Yorker is very concerned about the rate of crime, even
Speaker 1: if the numbers don't support it. They're feeling that way,
Speaker 1: and Republicans are talking about it. Pat Ryan is a
Speaker 1: combat veteran, as you know, from the War in Iraq
Speaker 1: rick uh. And in fact, Colin Schmidt is is actively serving. UH.
Speaker 1: He shouldn't use the word actively. What's serving in the
Speaker 1: Army National Garden. You know, he's doing his weekend and
Speaker 1: doing his dy as well, and we thank him for
Speaker 1: his service. I just wonder if that part of the story,
Speaker 1: seeing a congressman like Pat Ryan with a combat veteran background,
Speaker 1: you know, part of a growing class actually of veterans
Speaker 1: who are who are coming back to serve in the House,
Speaker 1: is meaningful to voters in New York or if that's
Speaker 1: something that kind of goes right by you know. Look,
Speaker 1: I think having a commitment to your country and serving
Speaker 1: UM in the military, whether it's in the reserves or
Speaker 1: active duty, is a strong bond with your community. Right.
Speaker 1: It is your willingness to sacrifice a career, a family,
Speaker 1: um education in order to do that. And so as
Speaker 1: a baseline, I think it's great. As a differentia between
Speaker 1: two candidates, both of them are in the service. I
Speaker 1: don't think it makes any difference. I did think in
Speaker 1: your interview Pat Ryan did a very nice jobum weaving
Speaker 1: that into his narrative about you know, having an oath
Speaker 1: of office and UH and so it's just my own
Speaker 1: observation is he's he's playing that up more than than
Speaker 1: college meant did in your interview. Does it resonate in
Speaker 1: Hudson Valley, New York? Geniy? It does? And of course
Speaker 1: West Point is on the Hudson River in their it's
Speaker 1: in the district, beautiful place to visit, absolutely amazing school,
Speaker 1: you know, no question, but yeah, it resonates there because
Speaker 1: you've got a lot of people who live and work
Speaker 1: in a family connections to West Point and other military
Speaker 1: UH affiliations in this area. So I think it does.
Speaker 1: It does ref you know, does resonate in that way?
Speaker 1: Great talk with Rick and Genie, they're here all our
Speaker 1: of course, our signature panel on the Fastest Hour in
Speaker 1: Politics coming up. We turned to New Hampshire's quite a
Speaker 1: debate last night, Senator Maggie Hasson fighting for her political
Speaker 1: life against Don Baldock. And there are some incredible polling numbers.
Speaker 1: You don't believe them when you first read them. This
Speaker 1: race is changing as we speak. We're going to go
Speaker 1: to st Ansom College and talk to an expert in
Speaker 1: Chris Calgary coming up, and we'll reassemble our panel right
Speaker 1: here on blue work sound on the situation we were
Speaker 1: talking about nationally over the past several days. Republican momentum
Speaker 1: and polls is the case apparently as well in New
Speaker 1: Hampshire Granite State not an exception, as we see in
Speaker 1: new numbers from st Anselm College. The Survey Center out
Speaker 1: with just a remarkable set of numbers yesterday showing that
Speaker 1: Don Baldock now leads the incumbent, Mackie Hasson, the Democrat,
Speaker 1: as Hasson's favorability drops and Baldock's improves. This goes on
Speaker 1: as you look down ballot, and it was the backdrop
Speaker 1: for a debate last night at st Anselm, the final
Speaker 1: debate televised between the incumbent and her Republican challenger. Here,
Speaker 1: Senator Maggie hasn't last August saying he stood by that letter,
Speaker 1: saying it was stolen and he wasn't switching horses, baby.
Speaker 1: That was I think the exact quote. He then has
Speaker 1: begun to cast out on the two elections now, saying
Speaker 1: that there will be ballot dumps in the middle of
Speaker 1: the night and referencing bus loads of unqualified, ineligible voters
Speaker 1: coming to our poles. He hasn't going after Don Baldock
Speaker 1: for his history as an election denier, but of course
Speaker 1: that's something. Remember It's like the day after the primary
Speaker 1: he went on Fox News and said, no, I looked
Speaker 1: into it. Joe Biden won the election. Then it kind
Speaker 1: of went back around a few more times. He was
Speaker 1: asked about it last night. Was the election stolen or not?
Speaker 1: And why does your answer keep changing? Well, it doesn't
Speaker 1: keep changing, right, I have been consistent about it up
Speaker 1: to the point you just you just gave an accurate analysis,
Speaker 1: and I have said on fourteen September it was not stolen.
Speaker 1: That's it. I'm not discussing it anymore. Okay. Then Christopher
Speaker 1: Galdieri joins us. He's been in the middle of this
Speaker 1: as a professor of politics at the were mentioned st
Speaker 1: Anselm College in New Hampshire. And it's great to have
Speaker 1: you here, Chris, it's been a while. Welcome to Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: You show as well that Caroline Levitt Republican challenger pulling
Speaker 1: ahead of Representative Chris Pappas. What's going on in New Hampshire. Um,
Speaker 1: I think a lot of what's going on is that
Speaker 1: Republican voters are coming home to Republican candidates, even ones
Speaker 1: who have you know who are who were not the
Speaker 1: party's first choice for the party leadership's first choice. Um.
Speaker 1: As the election draws near. So I think a lot
Speaker 1: of Republicans who might have had reservations about Don Bullbock,
Speaker 1: for instance, um, now that the election is what five
Speaker 1: six days away, Um, they're putting those reservations aside. You know,
Speaker 1: he's gotten support from folks like Chris SNeW the states
Speaker 1: perfectly normal Republican governor um to uh to uh to
Speaker 1: vote for him. Um. And And so I think that's
Speaker 1: means these this race is a lot sighter than a
Speaker 1: lot of people thought it would be when Baltock won
Speaker 1: the nomination. Well, that's for sure, My goodness, Mitch McConnell
Speaker 1: kind of abandoned the state. He abandoned the race because
Speaker 1: he wanted your your perfectly normal governor Chris and Nunu
Speaker 1: to run for this seat. Republicans had really turned away
Speaker 1: from it and said, well, you know, so much for
Speaker 1: flipping the Senate. But my goodness, a couple of months
Speaker 1: makes a big difference here, Chris, doesn't it It does?
Speaker 1: And I also think you have to look at that
Speaker 1: in the context of some of the other candidates you've
Speaker 1: got in the country. You know, like when you've got
Speaker 1: herschel Walker down in Georgia. God knows what's going to
Speaker 1: happen in that race, but it's clearly not going to
Speaker 1: be a slam dunk for either party. Um. I think
Speaker 1: Republicans started looking around, Well, Buldock was, you know, compared
Speaker 1: to say, you know, your JD. Vances and your herschel
Speaker 1: Walker is a comparatively um, you know, not mainstream exactly candidate,
Speaker 1: but looked a little bit like a state for beet
Speaker 1: than some of those folks. When you consider Maggie Hassan's
Speaker 1: tenure here, Christ, do you have a story to tell
Speaker 1: us an incumbent that's supposed to be a pretty powerful
Speaker 1: position to be in here as a US Senator Don
Speaker 1: Balda comes out of nowhere with no money, uh, and
Speaker 1: it's about to pull this off. Apparently, what is she
Speaker 1: telling voters? Well, she's running hard on her records, her background, um,
Speaker 1: not just as as senator and governor, but as the
Speaker 1: mother of a son with special needs, and that led
Speaker 1: her into politics in the first place. She's been doing
Speaker 1: the standard incumbent um tactic of talking about constituent service.
Speaker 1: What she's done for local business is what she's done
Speaker 1: for the state's veterans. Um and and this is pretty
Speaker 1: much in keeping with hass In style. You know, she
Speaker 1: is a very focused, very disciplined campaigner. She has the
Speaker 1: message that she wants to hit in a given debate
Speaker 1: or a given speech or a given event. Uh, and
Speaker 1: she hits it over and over and over again. And
Speaker 1: it's one of those things that usually works pretty well
Speaker 1: right up until the point that it doesn't. So I
Speaker 1: think the question, um is whether this is the year
Speaker 1: that that it's just not enough or does she pull
Speaker 1: this out? I mean, because um, that's you know, when
Speaker 1: you're talking about polls. I think that's um, you know,
Speaker 1: kind a coin flip at this point. Um So, Chris,
Speaker 1: I bet your classes are wild lately. Chris Calderia, I
Speaker 1: appreciate you come back and see as soon. Professor of
Speaker 1: Politics at st Anselm College in New Hampshire, of course,
Speaker 1: the center of the political universe, Rick Davis. You know
Speaker 1: New Hampshire. They love John McCaine up in New Hampshire.
Speaker 1: How did Don Baldock pull this off with local Republicans? Well,
Speaker 1: part of it was he did what Dundald that John
Speaker 1: McCain did. He did you know over seventy town halls
Speaker 1: and New Hampshire. It's loved their town halls. We proved
Speaker 1: that to be a winning formula. And Uh, he put
Speaker 1: himself out there in front. Uh, And I'm sure he
Speaker 1: got grilled with questions, but I guess his answers were
Speaker 1: enough to convince people that they were going to give
Speaker 1: him a second look. And I think it's exactly what uh,
Speaker 1: you were just talking about. You know, Republicans had a
Speaker 1: lot of questions some Republicans about Bulldock and and the
Speaker 1: fact that you know, part of the establishment sort of
Speaker 1: came around and embraced him. Check that box and you
Speaker 1: see that now solidifying. Um, it's a it's a real
Speaker 1: amazing thing because of course, you know, Bulldock was the
Speaker 1: Republican Democrats thought they could beat the most and actually
Speaker 1: helped him get the nomination by putting money into his campaign.
Speaker 1: And now it looks like he's going to turn the
Speaker 1: tables on him. Well. Of course, pulling off a leading
Speaker 1: the polls is one thing. Can he actually pull off
Speaker 1: a win? Will ask Genie Chanzano next? This we continue
Speaker 1: with our signature panel on Bloomberg Sound On, and we'll
Speaker 1: move to Rick's favorite state of Arizona, where Barack Obama
Speaker 1: touchdown last night to talk about deniers the same time
Speaker 1: Joe Biden was talking about it in d C. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg. You sound on with
Speaker 1: Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. When you see numbers move
Speaker 1: this much, this fast, you have to wonder what's going on,
Speaker 1: Although it does track with the momentum we've been talking
Speaker 1: about zeroing in today on Bloomberg. Sound on the State
Speaker 1: of New Hampshire, or at least this part of the hour,
Speaker 1: with these numbers we were discussing from st Anselm, with
Speaker 1: the panel showing Republicans across the board in New Hampshire
Speaker 1: on the rise, their pole standings on the rise, their
Speaker 1: favorability is on the rise, while unfavorable for the Democrats
Speaker 1: also continue to rise. The one exception tends to be
Speaker 1: represented Annie Custer, who is leading her Republican opponent by
Speaker 1: eight points, but the Senator Maggie Hassan now trailing Don Baldock.
Speaker 1: We reassemble the panel with Rick Davis and Gen Chanzano,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributors. Uh, what is the poster inside? You
Speaker 1: tell you, Genie at this point when you see numbers
Speaker 1: change this much and so quickly, not unlike the white
Speaker 1: suburban women number, we saw a move in the Wall
Speaker 1: Street Journal poll. But on a state level, this is
Speaker 1: a surging Republican party, it is, And unlike when you're
Speaker 1: talking about a subsample like white suburban women or any others,
Speaker 1: this is statewide. And so this does, I think, show
Speaker 1: that Republicans have taken a look. They may have been
Speaker 1: nervous about Baldock and some of these others, and with
Speaker 1: Democrats supporting and pushing him through to the nomination, but
Speaker 1: they are, to Chris's point, seemed to be returning home
Speaker 1: to a normal position. And I think that's what made
Speaker 1: the debate last night so important. There was still by
Speaker 1: the sinance on poll, someone decided, and the question was
Speaker 1: did Maggie Hassan do enough to keep them with her
Speaker 1: essentially or were they just going to go back to
Speaker 1: the Republican And I have to say, watching that debate
Speaker 1: last night, it was not a great performance by Maggie Hassan.
Speaker 1: She seemed loyally scripted, methodical. She played into everyone of
Speaker 1: baldock stereotypes of her as an insider establishment versus him
Speaker 1: as the outsider. It was a really really difficult performance
Speaker 1: for her, and he really seemed to get more and
Speaker 1: more aggressive and have more fun as the night went on,
Speaker 1: got under her skin, and it was not a good
Speaker 1: ending for her at all. She had the one good
Speaker 1: night good line about that you played at the at
Speaker 1: the top about his election denial story and tying him
Speaker 1: to the Trump endorsement. But besides that, she was not
Speaker 1: answering questions and he kept calling her out on that
Speaker 1: and being an insider in Washington. So tough for her
Speaker 1: last night. His performance, Rick is has he been learning
Speaker 1: on the trail? He did seem to uh to have
Speaker 1: some control of the conversation and was disciplined on Hey,
Speaker 1: I'm an outsider, I'm not a politician. Yeah. I think
Speaker 1: that playing the outsider card was an effective tool for him. Uh,
Speaker 1: he is an outsider. He's not a polished politician. He
Speaker 1: doesn't have all those kinds of spin moves that uh
Speaker 1: Jane was just saying about Senator Hassan and and look,
Speaker 1: we got to remind herselves she was one of the
Speaker 1: most vulnerable Democrats going into this cycle, very unpopular in
Speaker 1: her own home state. She was in the category of
Speaker 1: anybody could beat her. Now we're actually seeing anybody could
Speaker 1: beat her. Uh. As you say, elections still gotta happen.
Speaker 1: But this is one that even McConnell got wrong, and
Speaker 1: he's not used to, you know, admitting that he might
Speaker 1: have blinked when he shouldn't have. Onto Arizona. This is
Speaker 1: the latest stop on the national tour by the former
Speaker 1: president Barack Obama. These are events that Joe Biden might
Speaker 1: otherwise beholding, but this is the climate that we're in.
Speaker 1: What he was really going after deniers last night and
Speaker 1: his look, we've discussed a lot of the candidates, a
Speaker 1: lot of the Republican candidates in Arizona are deniers with you,
Speaker 1: the governor carry Lake, uh, candidates for attorney General and
Speaker 1: Secretary of State. And he was going for less. This opponent,
Speaker 1: another election denier, exaggerated his experience, made anti cemented comments.
Speaker 1: Adrian's opponent was at the cop was at the capitol
Speaker 1: on January six. He was actually there. I mean he
Speaker 1: might not have been the guy with the Viking helmet,
Speaker 1: but he was there. Has ties to far right anti
Speaker 1: government militia. Come on, people, Sena was perfectly fine for
Speaker 1: people to spend ballot drop boxes Karen Weapons. This is
Speaker 1: the guy, this is the Barack Obama we're seeing on
Speaker 1: the stump, this incredulous former president who doesn't seem to
Speaker 1: have much to lose here at this point. But Genie,
Speaker 1: is he helping or hurting? What's the impact of this?
Speaker 1: He is having some fun out there, and it is
Speaker 1: a rallising rally that because we're not getting him from
Speaker 1: the president, we're getting him from the former president. You know.
Speaker 1: I think he's doing everything he can to drum up
Speaker 1: the base, and in an election that was looking like
Speaker 1: it's going to be very close, that may be very helpful.
Speaker 1: His message is strong, and he has been on point,
Speaker 1: and he underscored what Joe Biden was saying last night
Speaker 1: in a much more um, you know, entertaining, if you will,
Speaker 1: stylistically probably appetizing way um that election deniers are on
Speaker 1: the ballot and democracy may not survive in Arizona if
Speaker 1: they elect this slate of Republican candidates. Well, you know
Speaker 1: Arizona as well as anyone when it comes to politics here, Rick,
Speaker 1: who is who what what is the slice of the
Speaker 1: electorate in Arizona. Who's going to react to that and
Speaker 1: vote for a Democrat or is this a waste of time?
Speaker 1: You know, Look, I mean the county, Americopa County, one
Speaker 1: of the largest in the country. UM, really controls most
Speaker 1: of the election outcomes in the last you know, two decades.
Speaker 1: Uh and and we've talked about them earlier in this show.
Speaker 1: You know, Uh, suburban women are the swing within Maricopa County,
Speaker 1: and so will suburban women see Kerry Lake Lake, the
Speaker 1: Republican challenger and an election denier in the past, uh
Speaker 1: as someone that they can park their vote on because
Speaker 1: of economic issues, because of some of these cultural issues,
Speaker 1: especially those that affect schools. Um or even on the
Speaker 1: border issues. UH. I do think Carry Lake has made
Speaker 1: in effective use of talking about fent and all, you know,
Speaker 1: coming through the border and affecting everybody's community. That is
Speaker 1: a big deal in Arizona. Uh and and and it's
Speaker 1: not just the Trump line on the border, it's it's
Speaker 1: a little more nuanced. So UM, she's gonna win rural
Speaker 1: votes uh and uh and most of the city votes
Speaker 1: are gonna go to Katie hobbs her opponent, and these
Speaker 1: suburban women are going to make up the difference to
Speaker 1: that's how Joe Biden won in a decidedly red state
Speaker 1: last time. And and if carry Lake is gonna win,
Speaker 1: she's gonna need them to bring him home. Well, he
Speaker 1: was having some fun with carry Lake last evening. I
Speaker 1: don't know if if anybody you know I sit around
Speaker 1: and watch these speeches instead of having a life here.
Speaker 1: But I I didn't know about this, so some people
Speaker 1: don't know this. But apparently carry Lake actually interviewed me
Speaker 1: back in when I was present. She was a local
Speaker 1: news anchor. She was doing her job. I have to admit, uh,
Speaker 1: I don't have, you know, clear memory of the interview.
Speaker 1: It's a little fuzzy, but I do know this. At
Speaker 1: the time, I don't remember are thinking that she was
Speaker 1: the kind of person who would push debunked COVID remedies
Speaker 1: or a promise the issue a declaration of invasion at
Speaker 1: our border, or claim without any evidence that election was stolen.
Speaker 1: But of course they weren't talking about carry Lake. Then
Speaker 1: they were talking about Barack Obama, and I thought, my gosh,
Speaker 1: well that's got to still be around, right Thank God
Speaker 1: for the Internet. There it is the carry lake inside
Speaker 1: there in the White House. You know they they'll do
Speaker 1: this stuff where they have like local reporters day, or
Speaker 1: at least they used to back then. Do they still
Speaker 1: do that, Matt the Biden. Yeah, and you know it's
Speaker 1: like the highlight of their careers. Of course, it would
Speaker 1: be your invite to the White House. You get five
Speaker 1: minutes or less with the president. This is a carry
Speaker 1: like Fox ten Phoenix. If the election were tomorrow, it's
Speaker 1: a rite in ballot and your vote decides it who
Speaker 1: is Well, look, obviously I'm gonna be voting for the
Speaker 1: Democratic but if if you write in whoever you want,
Speaker 1: maybe somebody who's not even run, if you could choose, oh,
Speaker 1: I I think we'll have a terrific Democratic nominee. And
Speaker 1: I'm confident that they will be a great president. And
Speaker 1: I'm going to be working as hard as I can.
Speaker 1: But right now, you know, it's something American people decide.
Speaker 1: This is May of I can't tell you my secret ballot.
Speaker 1: You don't talk about who you vote for. Absolutely, but
Speaker 1: Donald Trump will make America. I haven't thought too much
Speaker 1: about it because I don't think Donald Trump's gonna end
Speaker 1: up being president and you still stand by that absolutely.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Thank you appreciate. Harry Lake and
Speaker 1: Barack Obama. What do you guys think of that? And
Speaker 1: she's asking about make America great again? Maybe we should
Speaker 1: be paying more attention to these local interviews. Rick, Actually,
Speaker 1: I think that's an indication of why we shouldn't pay more.
Speaker 1: It was seven, I said, Fox ten or something like
Speaker 1: that New Center seven one on one. Genie, what'd you
Speaker 1: learn from that? I learned Joe Matthew that last night
Speaker 1: you went and you listened to this speech. I love
Speaker 1: what a political animal you are. And then you actually
Speaker 1: because I heard the speech, but then you actually went
Speaker 1: on and looked it up. And so you've done me proud,
Speaker 1: Joe Matthew. And yeah, and I've got to say that,
Speaker 1: you know, hearing carry like like that, I mean, he
Speaker 1: just underscores the hypocrisy of this race that she is running,
Speaker 1: and she likely is going to have a very good
Speaker 1: shot of winning. And I think in part we have
Speaker 1: to admit Katie Hobbs has not very much like you know,
Speaker 1: we were just talking about in New Hampshire UM with
Speaker 1: the Senate candidate Maggie Hassan. They are not going out
Speaker 1: on the stump. As Rick mentioned, you see Bulldock seventies
Speaker 1: six or so town halls carry like all over Arizona.
Speaker 1: Katie Hobbs shying away from being out there and debating,
Speaker 1: And I think it's a big mistake. Yes, should Katie Hobbs,
Speaker 1: now that we're five days out here, Rick, should she
Speaker 1: have debated carry like despite all the denier business? Would
Speaker 1: this be a different race? You know, Look, I mean
Speaker 1: it may be worse actually for Katie Hobbs she debated,
Speaker 1: but she still should have debated, right, she should give
Speaker 1: the people of Arizona a chance to compare and contrast.
Speaker 1: Like virtually every other candidate in America, what makes her
Speaker 1: special none? So Yeah, she should have put herself out there.
Speaker 1: Maybe it would have made it worse, Maybe it would
Speaker 1: have made it better. But like to deny voters the
Speaker 1: chance to see the two of them side by side
Speaker 1: just because she's not quote a great debater, Rick Davis,
Speaker 1: Jennie Chantino or signature panel. We'll be back with more
Speaker 1: tomorrow on the Fastest Hour in Politics. If you showed
Speaker 1: up late, subscribe to the podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg