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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites from the Action Network. I am

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Speaker 1: Chad Millman. It is Wednesday of a FC Conference title games. Huge,

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Speaker 1: huge weekend, last weekend, massive weekend. Um. I know this

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Speaker 1: because the Action Network had its biggest day ever. So

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Speaker 1: I am aware that people like to bet on football

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Speaker 1: and there was a lot of interest in the divisional weekend.

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Speaker 1: And guess who's going to join me to talk about

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Speaker 1: it today. You guys are gonna be surprised because it's

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Speaker 1: Mr Bob Scuocci. Yes, that's right, Bob Scucci from New

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Speaker 1: Orleans and all the BOYD gaming books. How you doing,

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Speaker 1: my brother, I'm doing well. How are you well? Remember

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Speaker 1: last week we opened the show talking about how it

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Speaker 1: was going to be the Year of Kindness? Yeah? So uh.

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Speaker 1: I go on Twitter later in the week and I

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Speaker 1: get a tweet from someone saying I wish Chad would

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Speaker 1: just stop with the first twenty minutes and get to

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Speaker 1: the games, and I responded, it's ironic that my rant

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Speaker 1: in the beginning was about the Year of kindness and

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Speaker 1: then this guy a swipe at me in Twitter and

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Speaker 1: then he wrote back, essentially, scooches time is more valuable

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Speaker 1: than that Okay, well you're only being You're only laughing

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Speaker 1: to be polite. No, I think that's funny. You've ripped

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Speaker 1: me enough so that, like when someone else rips you,

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Speaker 1: I get to enjoy it a little bit. That's funny.

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Speaker 1: I feel like we should just have like on a

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Speaker 1: permanent loop. That's scene from Good Fellows where Joe Pesci

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Speaker 1: is like, am I clown? Do? I amuse you? You

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Speaker 1: think I'm funny? Right? Yeah? Yeah, permanent Just just keep

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Speaker 1: running that Matt ford is is mimicking the faces right now,

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Speaker 1: he's he can't. It's not great audio, I'll tell you

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Speaker 1: that much. It's just not um. But boy Scooch. Last weekend,

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Speaker 1: geez Louise, Well yeah, some some really big games, some

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Speaker 1: exciting games. Uh. It was so interesting because you know,

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Speaker 1: everyone had been talking about and I've got a theory

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Speaker 1: on this, and I want to hear your theory. Everyone

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Speaker 1: had been talking about having the previous fifteen postseason games

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Speaker 1: underdogs have been fourteen and one, and so clearly it

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Speaker 1: was going to be the weekend to fade the underdogs.

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Speaker 1: Not that I believe in sort of that past is

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Speaker 1: sort of prologue and that you want to bet against

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Speaker 1: sort of what the past trend has been. But to me,

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Speaker 1: it was really about people were recognizing that trend and

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Speaker 1: now all the money was constantly coming in on the

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Speaker 1: underdogs to the degree that you had to start fading

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Speaker 1: the public a little bit. Um, Did you get that sense?

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Speaker 1: Tell me how you were thinking about the games from

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Speaker 1: a public perception perception point of view before the weekend started. Absolutely,

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Speaker 1: And I've been saying it for many weeks now, not

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Speaker 1: just this year's games, but it's been a recent trend

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Speaker 1: that the general public doesn't just lay the favorites anymore

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Speaker 1: like they used to in years past, and particularly the

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Speaker 1: deeper you get into playoffs are big games when they

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Speaker 1: just feel like there's more value on the underdogs, and

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Speaker 1: we see it in National Championship college basketball, National Championship

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Speaker 1: college football. I mean when you get down to to

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Speaker 1: the end of the season and they figured the teams

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Speaker 1: are that good enough to get there and now they're

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Speaker 1: getting points that the recent trend has been to uh

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Speaker 1: to to take those underdogs, and we're seeing it again

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Speaker 1: this week. But with regards to last week, I did

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Speaker 1: feel that there was gonna be a slight regression from

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Speaker 1: that trend, particularly since there was a couple of upsets

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Speaker 1: in the wild card weekend the week before, and uh,

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Speaker 1: any anytime you get the I mean you just look

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Speaker 1: at the point spreads in last week's games, some really

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Speaker 1: big point spreads compared to the week before, and three

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Speaker 1: out of the four of them covered easily and one

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Speaker 1: of them almost covered as well. Do you know what

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Speaker 1: the greatest feeling in the world is? And right, so

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Speaker 1: so true, But it's another level of being right. It's

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Speaker 1: being right and knowing the game is over before halftime.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that's a great feeling. So the Patriots charger. Uh,

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Speaker 1: I bet the Patriots and Scooch Roulette, I would you

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Speaker 1: bet the Cowboys? You lost? Um? Who bet the Cowboys?

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Speaker 1: What did you bet the Cowboys? The Eagles? Eagles? Did

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Speaker 1: you bet the Eagles? We had a big Why are

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Speaker 1: you talking about on Scooch Roulette? Yeah? Yeah, we argued

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Speaker 1: about it because you told me how wrong I was

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Speaker 1: on the Eagles defense that ended up holding New Orleans

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Speaker 1: to only twenty points. Well, Matt Ford is looking at

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Speaker 1: you like he thinks you're wrong. All right, maybe you're right,

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Speaker 1: maybe you're right. Either way, I took the Patriots and

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Speaker 1: that's what we're talking about. Me, Oh, you know what,

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Speaker 1: you might be right the closet snap crackle goes the

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Speaker 1: pop Yeah yeah, huh. Anyways back to me, uh the

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Speaker 1: Patriots minus four that cames over by halftime. Not only that,

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Speaker 1: the total, like it was practically over by halftime. So

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Speaker 1: I decided. You know how they keep talking about how

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Speaker 1: gambling is going to increase engagement with the games and

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Speaker 1: that gamblers watch the games more often, um and watch

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Speaker 1: more games and watch the games for longer. So but

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Speaker 1: people always assume it's because they are watching to see

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Speaker 1: the alchemy of the game or whether or not they

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Speaker 1: win their bet. I stuck with that Patriots game for

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Speaker 1: every second of the game because it was just so

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Speaker 1: satisfying to see a win happen like and not have

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Speaker 1: to sweat it, to just watch a game and like

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Speaker 1: like not even think about whether or not it was

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Speaker 1: going to impact my bet, and not even come close

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Speaker 1: to worrying about like if the Chargers scored another touchdown,

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Speaker 1: like you know, in the final minute, they still can't cover, Like,

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Speaker 1: oh my god, it's great. It's a great feeling. It's

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Speaker 1: it's it's it's wonderful. I know that, I know the

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Speaker 1: feeling I didn't feel at that game. I was on

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Speaker 1: the opposite end of that game, but I know the

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Speaker 1: feeling that game was interesting. I was so mad at

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Speaker 1: this because because we opened five and a half on

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Speaker 1: on on the Patriots, and we talked about this last week,

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Speaker 1: how the all the early money was on the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: The line went down to four ton of money on

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Speaker 1: the Chargers. We went down as as low as three

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Speaker 1: and a half, and then most of the books in

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Speaker 1: town were in the same boat. So I'm not gonna

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Speaker 1: just isolate us, but we I think we dropped the ball.

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Speaker 1: And you always want to move the line back to

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Speaker 1: the opening line by taking the same amount of money

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Speaker 1: that got you off of that line. So, in other words,

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Speaker 1: the same amount of money that got us from five

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Speaker 1: and a half to three and a half, we should

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Speaker 1: have moved the line equally up when we started getting

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Speaker 1: New England money, and we didn't do that. We ended

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Speaker 1: up taking a ton of New England money at minus

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Speaker 1: three and a half and minus four on game day.

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Speaker 1: That completely got us off the decision that by kickoff

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Speaker 1: we actually needed the Chargers, so all week we needed

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Speaker 1: to pay Oh yeah, it was horrible, horrible It was

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Speaker 1: one of those instances that you know, you just like

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Speaker 1: to take back and and start all over again. You

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Speaker 1: book it all all week long, needing one team, and

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Speaker 1: then by kickoff you just flip flopped and need the

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Speaker 1: other side. And like you said, we were never in

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Speaker 1: the game and if we need and we tried to.

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Speaker 1: We tried to stay high on the Patriots. We were

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Speaker 1: like a half a point higher than most of the

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Speaker 1: other places. When they were at five, we were at

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Speaker 1: fine five and a half, and when they were at

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Speaker 1: four and a half, we were at five. But again

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Speaker 1: we just weren't quick enough to move it back. We

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Speaker 1: were taking twice as much money on the Patriots to

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Speaker 1: move it a half a point, whereas going back down

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Speaker 1: we we moved it quickly off of some lesser money. Well,

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Speaker 1: let me ask a serious question. It's gonna sound like

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Speaker 1: an obn actually question why did you do that? You're

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Speaker 1: in charge, Like, why are you allowing people to take

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Speaker 1: more money on the Patriots than you allowed them to

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Speaker 1: take on the Chargers. No, I made the mistake, I

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Speaker 1: mean clearly. But but but the thing of it is

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Speaker 1: when you take a couple of big bets, uh, you

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Speaker 1: know you can't. You can't know when they're gonna come

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Speaker 1: in and want, you know, a large bet on the

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Speaker 1: best number. So in other words, you know, we we

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Speaker 1: moved the game from five and a half to four

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Speaker 1: and a half down to four, and then when we

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Speaker 1: go to three and a half and you better that

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Speaker 1: wants to come and lay that price, you can't just

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Speaker 1: say no because it's you know, it's you're getting the

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Speaker 1: best line all week. You have to take the bet.

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Speaker 1: And then I can't go directly to four and a

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Speaker 1: half because then I risk getting middled on four, So

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Speaker 1: I have to go to four, and then another better

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Speaker 1: comes up does the same thing. You know, So you

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Speaker 1: I mean, you you're doing the best you can with it,

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Speaker 1: but uh, sometimes it's sometimes it's just out of your

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Speaker 1: out of your control. Do you think that you got

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Speaker 1: set up? Well, no, not intentionally. I think what happened

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Speaker 1: was is that I think a lot of people saw

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Speaker 1: the weather. I think a lot of the weather had

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Speaker 1: a lot to do with it, which favors the underdog

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Speaker 1: early on, and then once it once they realized that

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Speaker 1: the weather is not going to be an issue, then

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Speaker 1: it goes back up. And we we've seen that a

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Speaker 1: lot before with with totals, and I think that was

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Speaker 1: part of the part of what happened here too, And

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Speaker 1: there was legitimately early in the week. I think a

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Speaker 1: contingency that liked the Chargers, but just the general public

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Speaker 1: is what really killed us on this one. Well because

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Speaker 1: but the public was the Chargers too during the week

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Speaker 1: early on. Yeah, it was just a complete reversal though. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: rarely we see that kind of reversal. I was. I

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Speaker 1: was on the charge. I was on the Patriots from

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Speaker 1: the beginning. It was one of those things just never

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Speaker 1: made sense to me, Like, really, the Patriots two weeks

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Speaker 1: to prepare. They know Tom Brady's achilles heel is the

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Speaker 1: pass rush. It's not like they don't know how to

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Speaker 1: solve that. At home a very short favorite, all of

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Speaker 1: the narrative coming in and the Chargers, it just made

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Speaker 1: no sense. Yeah, it really did. And I didn't understand

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Speaker 1: the move going down to four we and and you

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Speaker 1: and I both said back then that you gotta you

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Speaker 1: have to like the Patriots. I mean at home mine

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Speaker 1: is four and then it goes down to even three

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Speaker 1: and a half. Even better. That's why Tom Brady is,

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Speaker 1: like you think Tom Brady doesn't pay attention to the

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Speaker 1: points Breads. Damn damn straight does that? Tom Brady knows

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Speaker 1: that all the money was coming in on the Chargers

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Speaker 1: last week and the Past were down to three and

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Speaker 1: a half at home. Yeah, that's completely ridiculous. Now on

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Speaker 1: the other side of the coin, we we on the

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Speaker 1: other game that the Colts the Colts Chiefs, kind of

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Speaker 1: the same thing happened with the underdog. They're pound at

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Speaker 1: the underdog and but they never did really come back

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Speaker 1: on the Chiefs and that one. So that was a

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Speaker 1: good game for us, So you at least at least

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Speaker 1: we stayed on the number there. You know, what makes

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Speaker 1: this all the more fascinating is the prospect of live

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Speaker 1: betting because I was, as you know, I love the

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Speaker 1: Saints over the Eagles, and you know, we're three ft

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Speaker 1: away from that potentially being a cover and um, but

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Speaker 1: early on when the Saints were down, I had so

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Speaker 1: much stuff going on in this game, right, it's uh,

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Speaker 1: don't forget I have a Saints taken at eighteen to one,

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Speaker 1: So I think I bet a hundred bucks on it.

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Speaker 1: So if they go to the Super Bowl and they win,

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Speaker 1: I'm win in eighteen hundred bucks. It's not bad. Who

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Speaker 1: doesn't like to win eighteen hundred dollars? Right? Yep? Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's what it confirmed that we're both we both think

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Speaker 1: eighteen hundred dollars is good. Um, so I win. But

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Speaker 1: like before the game, I'm thinking, why don't I hedge

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Speaker 1: a little bit, like why don't I take the Eagles

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Speaker 1: on the money line? Having this conversation with all my

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Speaker 1: friends at the Action Network, and they're like, the Eagles

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Speaker 1: were plus three oh five on the money line. They're like,

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Speaker 1: put a little taste on. Once the game starts, you'll

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Speaker 1: get better odds. And we I just sort of agreed.

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Speaker 1: I went along with it as if, of course, because

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Speaker 1: the Saints are going to start off winning and so

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Speaker 1: it'll go up to five and so I'll get better odds.

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Speaker 1: And of course, like it's Sunday afternoon, mid term start

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Speaker 1: this week for my fifteen year old sweet kid. You know,

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Speaker 1: I love the kid. I think he's amazing, super smart,

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Speaker 1: has some executive function issues, not the best that's sort

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Speaker 1: of getting organized, getting himself together for studying, So we

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Speaker 1: need to stay on him a little bit. And so

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Speaker 1: my wife went out in the afternoon and She's like, listen,

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Speaker 1: you need to make sure Zach studies uh like for

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Speaker 1: these tests and like help him, quiz him whatever. And

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Speaker 1: so at the end of the Patriots game, like I'm

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Speaker 1: so excited. I had been planning all week on like

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Speaker 1: watching the beginning this game, being ready to live bet

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Speaker 1: all this kind of stuff. I start quiz and Zack

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Speaker 1: on his uh English for his English mid term. It

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Speaker 1: takes about half an hour. Game starts. I forget about

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Speaker 1: the live betting. I get back to the couch. Eagles

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Speaker 1: are at fourteen making I'm like, wow, I just looked around.

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Speaker 1: I'm like, what the fund this happen? Did I lost?

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Speaker 1: And like then I'm just like slacking everybody at the

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Speaker 1: Action Network. I'm like, you fuckers, you told me to wait.

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Speaker 1: Now I missed my opportunity, and I'm gonna spend this

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Speaker 1: whole fucking game like like waiting for like waiting for

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Speaker 1: the Saints to come back. I'm trying to find different

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Speaker 1: ways to get out. I'm already on the Saints minus eight.

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Speaker 1: Like I was so bitter, right, and then at one point,

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Speaker 1: like my younger son needed to eat dinner and he

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Speaker 1: was kind of being a dick, and I started yelling

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Speaker 1: at him. And it was all because I was stressed

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Speaker 1: about getting off the Saints bet and not being in

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Speaker 1: the live bet, like to get my to sort hedge

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Speaker 1: on the I might win all of it, all of it.

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Speaker 1: All of it was like I felt it in my stomach,

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Speaker 1: you know that feeling, like you feel it in your stomach,

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Speaker 1: like you're so frustrated with the bet that you're not

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Speaker 1: making or the missed opportunity that you had, that like

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Speaker 1: it's impacting everything else that you're doing. And like I

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Speaker 1: didn't want to say. And even my wife was like,

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Speaker 1: why are you being such a dick, And like even

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Speaker 1: my son was like, you're kind of being an asshole.

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Speaker 1: And I didn't want to be like, well, it's because

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Speaker 1: I got money riding on this game, and like I

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Speaker 1: just didn't want to like admitted him that I was

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Speaker 1: stressed about these bets, so I tried to stay totally

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Speaker 1: totally cool. Like once I got everything together, I ended

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Speaker 1: up getting the Saints at minus a half, uh, and

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Speaker 1: I live bed them. I'm like, fuck it, I'm going

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Speaker 1: all in on the Saints at the Saints minus and

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Speaker 1: a half. So at least I got I got off

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Speaker 1: my minus eight bet Um, I never and then by

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Speaker 1: the time I by the time I could get back

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Speaker 1: to the Eagles on the money line, it was like

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Speaker 1: plus four twenty or something. But at that point I decided,

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Speaker 1: fucking I'm just gonna roll with the Saints, and luckily, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it looked like they had the game in hand. But

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Speaker 1: by that time, yeah, now we It's funny you should

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Speaker 1: mention the live betting because we did more maneuvering with

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Speaker 1: the live betting lines in that game than any other

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Speaker 1: game probably this year. Um the fact that we we

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Speaker 1: had a couple of wins where uh or at least

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Speaker 1: that the Colts game was a big enough win that

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Speaker 1: carried us through most of the weekend. But with all

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Speaker 1: favorites covering going to the Saints, it was either going

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Speaker 1: to be if the Saints cover and that game went over,

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Speaker 1: we would have gotten annihilated. And it was the difference,

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Speaker 1: just a huge, huge swing. There was no middle ground.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't like we were gonna have a decent day

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Speaker 1: or break even. It was either we were going to

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Speaker 1: get annihilated or win based on that New Orleans game.

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Speaker 1: So when we when this, when the Eagles were up

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Speaker 1: fourteen nothing, we were in the opposite position where we

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Speaker 1: were saying, let's not give any more value to the

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Speaker 1: Saints because at one time the line in game betting line,

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Speaker 1: you could have gotten the Saints at plus four and

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Speaker 1: a half when they went down fourteen nothing. And they

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Speaker 1: they were just notorious this year, particularly the last half

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Speaker 1: of the year, for being a slow, slow starting team

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Speaker 1: that look at how many games they scored very few points,

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Speaker 1: single digit points in the first half, and then just

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Speaker 1: came on in the second half. So we weren't going

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Speaker 1: to just make matters worse. We were already going to

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Speaker 1: get annihilated on the Saints. We said, let's not give

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Speaker 1: them any more opportunity, so we tried to favor the

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Speaker 1: Eagles throughout that entire game with the endgame betting lines.

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Speaker 1: It's so I gotta I love the bet I love

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Speaker 1: the live betting, love it. It almost feels like why

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Speaker 1: am I betting pregame? And I've done stories about this

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Speaker 1: too back in the ESPN days, how so many wise

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Speaker 1: guys are really not paying too much attention to the

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Speaker 1: pregame betting because they can like all of their research

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Speaker 1: is still applicable during the live betting, and you get

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Speaker 1: better numbers, and so like, you know, this weekend, I like,

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Speaker 1: I like the Saints, but I don't like three and

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Speaker 1: a half. So I'm thinking, all right, Like, let's say

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Speaker 1: the game starts and I can get the Saints that

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Speaker 1: pick or the Saints that minus three even Uh, I'd

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Speaker 1: rather have that than the hook. I did it a

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Speaker 1: few weeks ago with the Bears, Like I like the

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Speaker 1: Bears all week against the Eagles. Uh, forget about the outcome,

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Speaker 1: but from the practice perspective, I liked him all a

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Speaker 1: week against the Eagles, but I didn't love it at five.

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Speaker 1: I didn't love it at five and a half. And

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Speaker 1: then once the game started it was three three. I

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Speaker 1: got him at minus three, and like, obviously it didn't

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Speaker 1: work out for me, but it came pretty close, and

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Speaker 1: like it was a much better feeling to know I

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00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:42,960
Speaker 1: got that much better of a number. Yeah. An indicator

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Speaker 1: that you're right on the money with that analysis is

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00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:49,760
Speaker 1: that most operators will limit the amount that you can

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Speaker 1: bet on endgame. So you know, those fifty dollar bets

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Speaker 1: that you're able to get pregame, you're not going to

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Speaker 1: be able to get, uh necessarily from most operators in game.

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Speaker 1: But for for the majority of the betters that bet

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Speaker 1: a lot less than that. It's a great way of

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Speaker 1: kind of seeing a little bit of the game before

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Speaker 1: your you know, form your your opinion that you know

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Speaker 1: you don't have that advantage with betting pregame. Yeah, so

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Speaker 1: how much are you willing to take in game? Each

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Speaker 1: game is a little different on each you know, we

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Speaker 1: you know, we have different profiles for for different betters. Basically,

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Speaker 1: you know, you're not as square as you used to be.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I might have to I might have

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Speaker 1: to stake factor you a little bit. What does that mean?

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Speaker 1: I think you can complimented me, but I'm not sure,

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00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:51,959
Speaker 1: you're not sure. I'd probably give you. I'd probably give

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Speaker 1: you a couple of thousand each each beat you give me,

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Speaker 1: you give me two dimes for every live that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I could be fucking dangerous for some one, right. It

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00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 1: can end up real quick, It really can quick. That

356
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,640
Speaker 1: could get ugly fast. Um. The other thing I'm loving

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00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:11,439
Speaker 1: right now, and we're gonna talk a little bit about this,

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Speaker 1: uh player props. Oh my god. The last few weeks

359
00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 1: I have been going crazy on player props just because

360
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:21,920
Speaker 1: we do so much coverage of it. And it's so

361
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Speaker 1: much fun. Like this weekend, I had Melvin Gordon under

362
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 1: sixty six and a half yards. I had um Michael

363
00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 1: Thomas over eighty six and a half yards. Of course,

364
00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:36,920
Speaker 1: like this is classic betting, right, But one bet I

365
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 1: thought about the most I had so Sony Michelle, I

366
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,520
Speaker 1: had thought about going over sixty one and a half,

367
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,080
Speaker 1: but like it was minus one twenty and I didn't

368
00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,320
Speaker 1: want to bet it higher than minus one ten. How

369
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 1: fucking stupid is that? Because like I end up not

370
00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:53,199
Speaker 1: making anything when he had a hundred yards in the

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Speaker 1: first half, and like I remembered exactly how many rushing

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Speaker 1: yards he was slated, like with the prop set he

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Speaker 1: is going to have, and I was tracking it the

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Speaker 1: whole game as hard as I was tracking Melvin Gordon

375
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Speaker 1: in his yard, even though I know bet it's the

376
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 1: bet I didn't make that I was regretting the most. Yeah,

377
00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 1: it does seem it's funny how that works, that sometimes

378
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 1: the bets you don't make bother you just as much

379
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Speaker 1: as a bet you do make and lose. It's funny

380
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 1: that you're starting to feel those same kind of things

381
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Speaker 1: that you know we've we've dealt with for a lot

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Speaker 1: of years. How soon do you think before you guys

383
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:29,440
Speaker 1: are really aggressive with player products. Well, it's funny. C

384
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 1: ES was last week and I spent the great deal

385
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:35,119
Speaker 1: of the week meeting with a lot of companies that

386
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:38,399
Speaker 1: have some great, great stuff, really cool stuff. I was

387
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Speaker 1: at a matter of fact, the NHL game had a

388
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Speaker 1: chance to meet the commissioner and uh they had a

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00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:47,720
Speaker 1: demo booth set up with a lot of in game

390
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 1: they were they were demoing that the puck and play

391
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 1: at the uh at the T Mobile Arena where you

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Speaker 1: can actually see the speed of the player skating and

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00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 1: the speed of the puck and uh so and that's

394
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,560
Speaker 1: just one sport. But but I mean, you go sport

395
00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 1: by sport, you you may see hundreds and hundreds of

396
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,200
Speaker 1: what they call markets, which is basically just a bet type,

397
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:12,480
Speaker 1: hundreds of markets on each player each week, all automated.

398
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Speaker 1: I think the you know, the future is just gonna

399
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 1: be uh. The upside is tremendous and I don't think

400
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:21,800
Speaker 1: that I don't think there's a limit. And that's what

401
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:25,200
Speaker 1: people like you mentioned, you know yourself as one of them, uh,

402
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:28,919
Speaker 1: being able to bet on a particular player and make

403
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 1: your own point spreads. Like you said, take a basketball

404
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 1: player and say, uh, Paul George, how many points are

405
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 1: you gonna score? Score this? Uh this game ten eleven, twelve,

406
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 1: and you make your own line and you just the

407
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 1: odds was just calculated for whatever you want to bet.

408
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,359
Speaker 1: I mean, that's what's out there, that's the future, scooch.

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Speaker 1: Before we move on, I want to talk about one

410
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 1: of my favorite things, which is books. That's right, as

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00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:56,879
Speaker 1: you know, as we all know, as everybody who has

412
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,679
Speaker 1: ever met me knows, I've written seven books, four of

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00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,639
Speaker 1: them best sellers. It may sound obnoxious because it is,

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00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 1: but listen, I'm a huge champion of books. I love

415
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,360
Speaker 1: writing them because I've written seven of them, I love

416
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 1: reading them, and I like when everybody else reads and

417
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 1: more importantly, listens two books. There's never been a better

418
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 1: time to start listening on Audible. With Audible, you get

419
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 1: access to an unbeatable selection of audio books, including best sellers,

420
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 1: nutrition books, mystery books, thrillers, memoirs, and books by Chad Millman.

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00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 1: That's me. Audible has the largest selection of audio books

422
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 1: on the planet, and now with Audible Originals, the selection

423
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 1: has gotten even more custom with content made for members.

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00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 1: That's crazy. Here's a book you can read on Audible.

425
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 1: It's called Invincible. It was written by Chad Melman with

426
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 1: Vince Papauli, who was the oldest rookie in the history

427
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 1: of the NFL when he made the Eagles as a

428
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 1: thirty year old teachers. But you can get dozens and

429
00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:00,600
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430
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434
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435
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436
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437
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438
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Speaker 1: It's like having the books on your shelf. Audio the

439
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440
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441
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Speaker 1: When you go to audible dot com, slash action or

442
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:50,160
Speaker 1: text action to five hundred five hundred. That's five zero zero,

443
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 1: five zero zero and listen for a change that's Audible,

444
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 1: dot com, slash action or text action A C T

445
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:03,880
Speaker 1: I O N to five hundred, five hundred listen. That's

446
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 1: a long read, but it's worth it because I freaking

447
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 1: love books and I want people to listen to books

448
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 1: on Audible. Let's get back to the show. You know

449
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 1: what I want to do, Scooch, what I want to

450
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 1: get into the betting business because it seems like there's

451
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 1: a lot of opportunity there. I love the prop that's

452
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 1: We've been doing a crapload of coverage of it at

453
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,919
Speaker 1: Action Network, Like we are doing so much every weekend

454
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:32,239
Speaker 1: on NBA player props, on the NFL player props. It's

455
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 1: just been so much fun. Um, people should just look

456
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:37,879
Speaker 1: into it. Don't go crazy, you know, be responsible, know

457
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 1: your limits. But I've been you know, we're about to

458
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:45,440
Speaker 1: uh offer player prop tracking in the Action Network app

459
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 1: downloaded for free and so then you can start tracking

460
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 1: your player prop. That's as well. But the last two

461
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 1: NFL weekends I have had as much bet and made

462
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 1: as many bets on player props as I have on

463
00:25:56,359 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 1: size and totals um, and there are no They're a

464
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: nightmare to manage I'll tell you that. You know, obviously

465
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,160
Speaker 1: we do more for the Super Bowl than any other game,

466
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 1: and you really have to have the pipeline in to

467
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 1: almost every practice session, every following players around. You know,

468
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 1: one one running back twists his ankle, comes up a

469
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 1: little you know, uh, you know, maybe just walking down

470
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 1: the stairs, twists, twists his ankle, and next thing you know,

471
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 1: somebody's pounding the under on the yard. Agin And there's

472
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,639
Speaker 1: so much to keep track of. We we hated on

473
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:33,640
Speaker 1: our side of the counter. So, speaking of keeping track,

474
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 1: here's a great story. And you talked about whether earlier

475
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:39,399
Speaker 1: in the show. Uh, the Kansas City Chiefs are hosting

476
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: the New England Patriots. Uh, there are three point favorites.

477
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:47,120
Speaker 1: Full disclosure. I bet the I thought this was there's

478
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: so many storylines here in my head is going to explode.

479
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:54,920
Speaker 1: UM this game. The early lines on this game were

480
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 1: Chiefs minus four against the Patriots. When that line opened

481
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,439
Speaker 1: on Saturday night. Um, you can't really bet it, but

482
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 1: that's what sort of books were releasing as the lines

483
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:07,479
Speaker 1: against the Patriots and the lines against um, the Chargers

484
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:09,360
Speaker 1: what they were going to be, and it was generally

485
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 1: four points. So when this game opened officially opened, it

486
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 1: was Chiefs minus three and money started coming in and

487
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 1: the Patriots and so all of a sudden, I was

488
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 1: able to get Chiefs minus three plus one. D um

489
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 1: because I know you guys don't want to move the line.

490
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 1: You were basically just adjusting the juice. And I'm like,

491
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 1: are you kidding me? I'm getting the Chiefs plus money

492
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 1: at minus three? That was nuts? What was happening there? Like?

493
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 1: What was going on? What were you thinking? Was it

494
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: all just reacts to how badly the Patriots beat up

495
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 1: the Chargers? Uh No, not not really just trying to

496
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,359
Speaker 1: anticipate where we think the public is going to come

497
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:48,439
Speaker 1: in on, because the Chiefs look equally impressive against the

498
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 1: Colt So it wasn't that one really looked better than

499
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 1: the other in their respective games. UM. I just think

500
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: if people had the opportunity to take New England uh

501
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 1: as an underdog in the big game with all their

502
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 1: key personnel basically they're Belichick and Brady and Gronkowski, uh,

503
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 1: that that's probably just more value. Uh. And that's just

504
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 1: basically the public perception, not necessarily the sharp perception. Um. So,

505
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 1: so I think three would be the solid number and

506
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 1: let's let the money get us off to three. I

507
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 1: can tell you we're closer to going to two and

508
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 1: a half than we are going to three and a half.

509
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 1: And uh, I mean we've already used the New England

510
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 1: to minus fifteen and we're still getting more New England money.

511
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 1: So um, I think more people are are surprised at uh,

512
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 1: New England's getting getting a full field goal here. I

513
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 1: think more people were expecting this to be closer to

514
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: a pick up game. I'm talking about the average casual fan. Wow,

515
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 1: if you go to two and a half, if anybody

516
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 1: goes to a half, I might take the Chiefs again. Yeah,

517
00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 1: so I'm not making that same mistake we made last

518
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 1: week where we went down on the Patriots all the

519
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:55,680
Speaker 1: way down the three and a half and then let

520
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 1: us let's let them get us off the game with

521
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 1: just a couple of bets. Uh. This was really interesting too,

522
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 1: and this is what I wanted to get to. You

523
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 1: mentioned the weather earlier. Uh, and we had a story

524
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 1: about this on Action Network dot com. Mark Allant download

525
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 1: the free app. You can get that story for free.

526
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 1: It's really good. Um, yesterday afternoon, it was Monday afternoon.

527
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 1: We're recording this. On Tuesday, Adam Schefter tweeted out that

528
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 1: there was gonna be massive temperature drops at Arrowhead this weekend,

529
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 1: so it could be as well as ten degrees below

530
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 1: zero or as high as two degrees. He tweeted that out.

531
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 1: We could not confirm this, but very soon after the

532
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 1: total on that game started the drop, it was at

533
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 1: fifty seven. Now I think it's at fifty four. Um,

534
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Action Network app down letter for free. Uh,

535
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 1: and so tell me, like, I'm seeing fifty five now

536
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 1: open to fifty nine and a half. Uh. Why did

537
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 1: you guys move that line so aggressively? Was because of cheft? Like?

538
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 1: How did the news start to travel for that? Yeah,

539
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 1: and this is nothing different than what we've been dealing

540
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:04,959
Speaker 1: with in these big games in the outdoors for for years.

541
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 1: Is that when there's reports of snow or big weather

542
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 1: front coming, Uh, the instinct is to just bet it

543
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 1: under regardless of whether or not um it actually the

544
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 1: weather is as bad as it is anticipated to be.

545
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 1: And then the professional betters always have the opportunity that

546
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 1: when they see the weather clearing up, they they get

547
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 1: off their bets and bet the over and actually have

548
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 1: a four point middle doing it. So this is what

549
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 1: kind of what we struggle with with with NFL totals.

550
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 1: We have UH for for many years, um, and the

551
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 1: same often goes for a large points bread uh that

552
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 1: you know, if the team is getting more than a

553
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 1: touchdown and you see bad weather and you figure a

554
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 1: low scoring game, the first inclination is for the professional

555
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 1: betters to take the points and then they could always

556
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 1: get off the bet later. It's it's kind of like

557
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 1: a stock market when you first hear the news of

558
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 1: something or the rumors of something, and you go ahead

559
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 1: and you you buy the stock on the rumor and

560
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 1: then you sell on the news. Right. That's the same

561
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 1: kind of principle in sports betting. Um, you always have

562
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 1: the opportunity to get off that bet later, but go

563
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 1: ahead and grab that number while you can by in

564
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 1: the rumors selling the news. Mm hmm. So to me,

565
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 1: this looks like an opportunity to go for the over. Yeah.

566
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 1: And you know, we actually got caught on this a

567
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 1: couple of times. And and kind of another uh kind

568
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 1: of mistake that we we made is a couple of

569
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 1: games that we let people bet more money on the

570
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:34,959
Speaker 1: over at a better number because we moved it probably

571
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 1: quicker than we should have. Uh and uh we actually

572
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 1: did it on the College National Championship and that wasn't

573
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 1: actually off of any weather. But you know, we opened

574
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 1: that game sixty uh, went down to fifty seven and

575
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 1: a half and actually ended up taking a lot bigger

576
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 1: pets at over fifty seven and a half than we

577
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 1: did it under sixty. And so another bad book making example.

578
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 1: Where do you think the bottom is for this game

579
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 1: on the total? I think I could go back down

580
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 1: to fifty four right now? It's yeah, I mean it

581
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 1: does look like right now the weather is saying that

582
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 1: it's going to be about two degrees by game time.

583
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 1: So you think it's two degrees by game time? You

584
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 1: think the public is just gonna keep coming in on

585
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 1: the ounder because it's so called I'm not necessarily should

586
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:39,840
Speaker 1: I bet it now or should I wait? Oh, if

587
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 1: you see fifty four and a half, you should bet

588
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 1: it now? What is gonna come back fifty five? You're

589
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 1: taking a gamble there. You may not get the best number,

590
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 1: that's what it's called, buddy. By game time, there's gonna

591
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 1: be a contingency that's gonna bet this game over, not

592
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 1: caring what the weather is. That's what I'm saying. We

593
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 1: know the public is going to bet the over, So

594
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 1: I got a couple of days before I have to

595
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 1: really worry. I can. It's gonna linger around fifty five

596
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 1: and it might get back down to fifty four and

597
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 1: a half. Mm hm. You know what I'm gonna do.

598
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:16,480
Speaker 1: I'm gonna use the Action Network gap. I'm going to

599
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 1: set an alert for line movements and I'm gonna see

600
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 1: if this line gets down to fifty four and a half.

601
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:27,479
Speaker 1: There you go. I am plugging away, but it feels natural,

602
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,239
Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Like we're just bringing things

603
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 1: up that are inherent in the Action Network appage you

604
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 1: can download for free. Uh. Now, this other game, the

605
00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 1: Saints open three and a half, it's still sitting at

606
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 1: three and a half. I don't want that hook. Yeah,

607
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:50,959
Speaker 1: we're getting i mean probably out of three to one ratio,

608
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 1: we're getting rams bets over over New Orleans. We're very

609
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 1: very close to going to three on this game. Um,

610
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: some big bets on the rams, mostly mostly from recreational betters,

611
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 1: not necessarily from uh the sharp handicappers. Now both these

612
00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:09,320
Speaker 1: actually all four of these teams I mean both teams

613
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 1: met each other in the regular season, and um, I

614
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,959
Speaker 1: forgot which week it was. The Ram Rams played, uh

615
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 1: New Orleans, but New Orleans dealt them their first loss

616
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 1: of the season with a ten point when that they

617
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:24,359
Speaker 1: were in control of that entire game. And we talked

618
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 1: about it all the time, how how difficult it is

619
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 1: to be the team twice, particularly in a big playoff game.

620
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:33,840
Speaker 1: You know that the tendency for the coach, the winning

621
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 1: coach in this case the Saints, is to say, Okay,

622
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 1: we had a great game plan, it worked, we won.

623
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:42,240
Speaker 1: Let's not change anything. So they're they're they're real hesitant

624
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:44,799
Speaker 1: to change the game plan, whereas the coach on the

625
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 1: losing side said, Okay, this is what didn't work for us,

626
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 1: we really need to change this up. So we're gonna

627
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:51,800
Speaker 1: get a different look on the Ram side and maybe

628
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,840
Speaker 1: not necessarily on the on the Saint side. But uh,

629
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 1: it's hard to it's hard to think that we're not

630
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 1: going to get the same offense we saw the first

631
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 1: two times. The first time that these two teams met,

632
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 1: I think the Rams are gonna struggle. Um. You know,

633
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 1: they may focus on camera, but you've got you've got

634
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 1: breeze going over the top and in the flat, and

635
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 1: it's gonna be tough for this Rams team to keep

636
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 1: up with them. I agree. I mean, look, I want

637
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 1: to bet the Saints. I want the Saints to win

638
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:20,840
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. I want to win my eighteen hundred

639
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 1: dollars eighteen hundred dollars, well, my eighteen hundred dollars um.

640
00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:30,879
Speaker 1: But I think that, uh, I want a better number,

641
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 1: So I'm just gonna wait. I'm just gonna wait on it,

642
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:36,919
Speaker 1: and I can easily see this being like Rams jump

643
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 1: out to an early lead and then I get the

644
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 1: Saints at a much better price. Yeah, that's been the

645
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 1: trend that, for whatever reason, the Saints team comes out

646
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 1: of the gate pretty slow. Between live betting and player props.

647
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna own a sports book soon. I'm gonna make

648
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 1: so much money off you guys. You're working on it.

649
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 1: I am bring down the house there you go. What

650
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 1: do you think of the total in this one? Well,

651
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 1: we tried to make it on the as high as

652
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 1: we could. Uhifty seven. I know some places open a

653
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 1: little bit lower, but this is another one. I mean, uh,

654
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,799
Speaker 1: we're just gonna see this, this number go nothing but up.

655
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 1: So if you're gonna, if you're looking to bet the over,

656
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 1: might as well bet this one now. Really so, I

657
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:28,160
Speaker 1: can't see anyone betting this under. There's no there's no

658
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 1: reason about this one under there's zero reason to do it.

659
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 1: What's your biggest liability for the four teams remaining right now?

660
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 1: Kansas City, Los Angeles, New Orleans, New England. Let me guess.

661
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 1: Let me guess your biggest liability is going to be

662
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 1: Kansas City because they were probably longest before the season began.

663
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 1: Maybe New Orleans. Maybe you got suckered into taking some

664
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 1: big bets, like from people like me, well steak respect me.

665
00:36:53,719 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 1: What did you say, steak factor. So we actually do

666
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 1: pretty well in the futures, um, we we don't get

667
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 1: we don't lose on any of the four teams, but

668
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 1: we don't do as well on the Saints, only because

669
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:13,479
Speaker 1: we opened sports books in Mississippi, particularly an hour away

670
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 1: from New Orleans down to Biloxi, and the first bet

671
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 1: out of the gate was a thousand dollars. I mean,

672
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 1: the very first bet we took was a thousand dollars

673
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 1: on the Saints to win the Super Bowl at twelve

674
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 1: to one, and that was in August and it's been

675
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:30,799
Speaker 1: all Saints since then. So we don't do as well

676
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 1: on the Saints, but we don't lose on any of

677
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:40,399
Speaker 1: the four teams. I'm glad for you. Hey, you want

678
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:43,799
Speaker 1: to play some scoot Roulette? Sure, all right, I'm gonna

679
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 1: go first, but we're first. We're gonna play the music.

680
00:37:55,719 --> 00:38:00,360
Speaker 1: So I want the Kansas City chiefs. Um, but I

681
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 1: want him at two and a half because I know

682
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:05,560
Speaker 1: what's going there and you're hesitating, and I feel it's

683
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 1: unfair to take him at three when I know it's

684
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:12,399
Speaker 1: going to be a two and a half. Okay, we'll

685
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:13,879
Speaker 1: give you the two and a half because you're gonna

686
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:19,279
Speaker 1: go there, right, Yeah, we're going. Are you going now? No?

687
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:23,759
Speaker 1: Not right now soon? Sorry? Yeah, I want him at

688
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:25,399
Speaker 1: two and a half. I want him if you owe

689
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 1: that to me, yeah, for being on it, for being

690
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 1: so mean to me over the years. Um, who do

691
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:38,359
Speaker 1: you want to your kindness, your kindness give me. I'm

692
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 1: gonna go with the Saints, but I want two and

693
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 1: a half. Can you give me two and a half.

694
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 1: I don't think you're gonna get to hal Well I

695
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 1: get three? Can I can I just take the best

696
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 1: number of the week. All right, I'll give it to you.

697
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:55,880
Speaker 1: I'll give it What is the juice? What is the

698
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 1: juice on the Saints right now? Well, right now is

699
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 1: three and a half, So it's minus twenty on the

700
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:04,839
Speaker 1: Rams and even money on the Saints. But it would

701
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 1: be like minus three minus twenty or twenty five on

702
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:12,239
Speaker 1: the Saints. Uh. I will give it to you. I'll

703
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 1: let you buy half a point here, and I'm probably

704
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:17,239
Speaker 1: giving you a discount because I bet if I bought

705
00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 1: half a point right now at a real sports book. Yeah,

706
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 1: I was thinking thirty five. Okay, cost me thirty five.

707
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 1: That's nice. How we did that for each other. I'm

708
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 1: on the Saints too in that game. I'm rooting for you,

709
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:36,840
Speaker 1: all right. I'm on the Saints. A couple of winners.

710
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 1: Big If the Saints win, I'm going to celebrate with

711
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 1: like I don't know a big Mac or you know

712
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:49,879
Speaker 1: American Fast or when American Fast Food got you? Are

713
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 1: you are you gonna hedge if they if they beat

714
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 1: the Rams, or then are you gonna hedge for your

715
00:39:53,680 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 1: eighteen hundred? I gotta figure out like some bets for

716
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. This will be a fun proce like experiment,

717
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 1: if the Saints get in there. What is the combination

718
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:08,839
Speaker 1: of bets I can make that will win me eight

719
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 1: without costing me a lot of money? Oh? Yeah, you

720
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 1: know what I mean? Mm hmm. That's what I'm gonna

721
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 1: work think about first. I could probably do that for

722
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 1: the Rams too, Like, what is the you know, what

723
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:27,399
Speaker 1: is the combination of bets I can make that will

724
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:32,600
Speaker 1: win me? Say nine? Um so putting up a lot

725
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:39,160
Speaker 1: without risking without risking a lot. Yeah, I'm going to

726
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:40,840
Speaker 1: try that. Screech. I think I just gave him. I

727
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:45,839
Speaker 1: think I just assigned myself a story. Yeah, I can

728
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 1: do that. Got something to work on. I can do that.

729
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 1: I'm the chief content officer. It's my job. Mm hmm.

730
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 1: Bob Scucci, listen. I want to remind people that if

731
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:05,360
Speaker 1: you go to action network dot com slash favorites Action

732
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 1: network dot com slash favorites, you can sign up for

733
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:18,480
Speaker 1: the free live podcast we are doing on January. We

734
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 1: have very few seats left. We uh open it up

735
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 1: for Like what do I say, favorites or the favorites, Yeah,

736
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 1: I said favorites. Action network dot com slash favorites. Sign

737
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:34,759
Speaker 1: up to attend the live podcast of the Favorites. Um,

738
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 1: everyone knows that you might have something special planned. Will

739
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 1: be me, black Jack Fletcher, JANU PM go sign up.

740
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:49,760
Speaker 1: I think there's like maybe fift twenty seats left uh

741
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 1: in the sign up. Go check it out. Please do,

742
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 1: please check it out. Um that's all I got. That's

743
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 1: the podcast for today's Scooch. What do you think did

744
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 1: we do? Okay? I think where'd you go? What happened

745
00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 1: to you? Already left? Then? Alright, then let's play the

746
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:12,960
Speaker 1: music and we'll get the hell out of here. Listen

747
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:17,480
Speaker 1: to the Favorites on Apple podcast, at radio dot com,

748
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:22,360
Speaker 1: Slash Action Network, wherever you can get your podcast. I

749
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,920
Speaker 1: am Chad Mellman. We are on the air Monday, Wednesday,

750
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,719
Speaker 1: and Friday. I will be back on Friday with black

751
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:30,439
Speaker 1: Jack Fletcher to see who is gonna win our head

752
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 1: to head betting matchups. Thanks Everyboday,